Search results for: hierarchical Bayesian path analysis

Authors: Svetlana Pushkar, Oleg Verbitsky

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An energy-conscious design for a classroom in a hot-humid climate is reanalyzed. The hypothesis of this study is that use of photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation in building operation energy consumption will lead to re-analysis of the energy-conscious design. Therefore, the objective of this study is to reanalyze the energy-conscious design by evaluating the environmental impact of operational energy with PV electrical generation. Using the hierarchical design structure of Eco-indicator 99, the alternatives for energy-conscious variables are statistically evaluated by applying a two-stage nested (hierarchical) ANOVA. The recommendations for the preferred solutions for application of glazing types, wall insulation, roof insulation, window size, roof mass, and window shading design alternatives were changed (for example, glazing type recommendations were changed from low-emissivity glazing, green, and double- glazed windows to low-emissivity glazing only), whereas the applications for the lighting control system and infiltration are not changed. Such analysis of operational energy can be defined as environment-conscious analysis.

Keywords: ANOVA, Eco-Indicator 99, energy-conscious design, hot–humid climate, photovoltaic

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Pan Long, Bi Dongjie, Li Xifeng, Xie Yongle

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The near-field synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging is an advanced nondestructive testing and evaluation (NDT&E) technique. This paper investigates the complex-valued signal processing related to the near-field SAR imaging system, where the measurement data turns out to be noncircular and improper, meaning that the complex-valued data is correlated to its complex conjugate. Furthermore, we discover that the degree of impropriety of the measurement data and that of the target image can be highly correlated in near-field SAR imaging. Based on these observations, A modified generalized sparse Bayesian learning algorithm is proposed, taking impropriety and noncircularity into account. Numerical results show that the proposed algorithm provides performance gain, with the help of noncircular assumption on the signals.

Keywords: complex-valued signal processing, synthetic aperture radar, 2-D radar imaging, compressive sensing, sparse Bayesian learning

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Authors: Adrian Millea

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In hierarchical reinforcement learning, one of the main issues encountered is the discovery of subgoal states or options (which are policies reaching subgoal states) by partitioning the environment in a meaningful way. This partitioning usually requires an expensive global clustering operation or eigendecomposition of the Laplacian of the states graph. We propose a local solution to this issue, much more efficient than algorithms using global information, which successfully discovers subgoal states by computing a simple function, which we call heterogeneity for each state as a function of its neighbors. Moreover, we construct a value function using the difference in heterogeneity from one step to the next, as reward, such that we are able to explore the state space much more efficiently than say epsilon-greedy. The same principle can then be applied to higher level of the hierarchy, where now states are subgoals discovered at the level below.

Keywords: exploration, hierarchical reinforcement learning, locality, options, value functions

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Authors: Emna Benmohamed, Hela Ltifi, Mounir Ben Ayed

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Bayesian Network (BN) is one of the most efficient classification methods. It is widely used in several fields (i.e., medical diagnostics, risk analysis, bioinformatics research). The BN is defined as a probabilistic graphical model that represents a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. This classification method has a high-performance rate in the extraction of new knowledge from data. The construction of this model consists of two phases for structure learning and parameter learning. For solving this problem, the K2 algorithm is one of the representative data-driven algorithms, which is based on score and search approach. In addition, the integration of the expert's knowledge in the structure learning process allows the obtainment of the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining the improvement of the K2 algorithm called K2 algorithm for Parents and Children search (K2PC) and the expert-driven method for learning the structure of BN. The evaluation of the experimental results, using the well-known benchmarks, proves that our K2PC algorithm has better performance in terms of correct structure detection. The real application of our model shows its efficiency in the analysis of the phosphate laundry effluents' impact on the watershed in the Gafsa area (southwestern Tunisia).

Keywords: Bayesian network, classification, expert knowledge, structure learning, surface water analysis

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Authors: Lemonakis Panagiotis, Eliou Nikos, Karakasidis Theodoros, Botzoris George

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It is well known that trajectory along with speed are two of the most important contributing factors in road accidents. Trajectory is meant as the "line“, usually different from the center-line that a driver traverses through horizontal curves which depends on the characteristics of the road environment (especially the curvature), the vehicle and the driver himself. Drivers and especially riders, tend to broaden their paths in order to succeed greater path radiuses and hence, reduce the applied centrifugal force enhancing safety. The objective of the present research is to investigate riders’ path on horizontal curves. Within the context of the research, field measurements were conducted on a rural two lane highway, with the participation of eight riders and the use of an instrumented motorcycle. The research has shown that the trajectory of the riders is correlated to the radius and the length of the horizontal curve as well.

Keywords: trajectory, path, riders, horizontal curves

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Authors: Lavanya Ratnabala, Robinroy Peter, E. Y. A. Charles

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This research paper addresses the challenges of exploration and navigation in unknown environments from an evolutionary swarm robotics perspective. Path formation plays a crucial role in enabling cooperative swarm robots to accomplish these tasks. The paper presents a method called the sub-goal-based path formation, which establishes a path between two different locations by exploiting visually connected sub-goals. Simulation experiments conducted in the Argos simulator demonstrate the successful formation of paths in the majority of trials. Furthermore, the paper tackles the problem of inter-collision (traffic) among a large number of robots engaged in path formation, which negatively impacts the performance of the sub-goal-based method. To mitigate this issue, a task allocation strategy is proposed, leveraging local communication protocols and light signal-based communication. The strategy evaluates the distance between points and determines the required number of robots for the path formation task, reducing unwanted exploration and traffic congestion. The performance of the sub-goal-based path formation and task allocation strategy is evaluated by comparing path length, time, and resource reduction against the A* algorithm. The simulation experiments demonstrate promising results, showcasing the scalability, robustness, and fault tolerance characteristics of the proposed approach.

Keywords: swarm, path formation, task allocation, Argos, exploration, navigation, sub-goal

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Authors: Li Qiang, Yang Ze-Ming, Liu Bao-Xu, Jiang Zheng-Wei

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With the increasing complexity of cyberspace security, the cyber-attack attribution has become an important challenge of the security protection systems. The difficult points of cyber-attack attribution were forced on the problems of huge data handling and key data missing. According to this situation, this paper presented a reasoning method of cyber-attack attribution based on threat intelligence. The method utilizes the intrusion kill chain model and Bayesian network to build attack chain and evidence chain of cyber-attack on threat intelligence platform through data calculation, analysis and reasoning. Then, we used a number of cyber-attack events which we have observed and analyzed to test the reasoning method and demo system, the result of testing indicates that the reasoning method can provide certain help in cyber-attack attribution.

Keywords: reasoning, Bayesian networks, cyber-attack attribution, Kill Chain, threat intelligence

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina

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Authors: Pitak Keawbunsong, Sathaporn Promwong

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This paper presents an investigation on the efficiency of the optimized Davison path loss model in order to look for a suitable path loss model to design and planning DTTV propagation for small and medium urban areas in southern Thailand. Hadyai City in Songkla Province is chosen as the case study to collect the analytical data on the electric field strength. The optimization is conducted through the least square method while the efficiency index is through the statistical value of relative error (RE). The result of the least square method is the offset and slop of the frequency to be used in the optimized process. The statistical result shows that RE of the old Davidson model is at the least when being compared with the optimized Davison and the Hata models. Thus, the old Davison path loss model is the most accurate that further becomes the most optimized for the plan on the propagation network design.

Keywords: DTTV propagation, path loss model, Davidson model, least square method

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Authors: Lee Yan Nian

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Safety investigation is different from an administrative investigation in that the former is conducted by an independent agency and the purpose of such investigation is to prevent accidents in the future and not to apportion blame or determine liability. Before October 2018, Taiwan railway occurrences were investigated by local supervisory authority. Characteristics of this kind of investigation are that enforcement actions, such as administrative penalty, are usually imposed on those persons or units involved in occurrence. On October 21, 2018, due to a Taiwan Railway accident, which caused 18 fatalities and injured another 267, establishing an agency to independently investigate this catastrophic railway accident was quickly decided. The Taiwan Transportation Safety Board (TTSB) was then established on August 1, 2019 to take charge of investigating major aviation, marine, railway and highway occurrences. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of safety investigations conducted by the TTSB. In this study, the major railway occurrence investigation reports published by the TTSB are used for modeling and analysis. According to the classification of railway occurrences investigated by the TTSB, accident types of Taiwan railway occurrences can be categorized into: derailment, fire, Signal Passed at Danger and others. A Causal Factor Analysis System (CFAS) developed by the TTSB is used to identify the influencing causal factors and their causal relationships in the investigation reports. All terminologies used in the CFAS are equivalent to the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) terminologies, except for “Technical Events” which was added to classify causal factors resulting from mechanical failure. Accordingly, the Bayesian network structure of each occurrence category is established based on the identified causal factors in the CFAS. In the Bayesian networks, the prior probabilities of identified causal factors are obtained from the number of times in the investigation reports. Conditional Probability Table of each parent node is determined from domain experts’ experience and judgement. The resulting networks are quantitatively assessed under different scenarios to evaluate their forward predictions and backward diagnostic capabilities. Finally, the established Bayesian network of derailment is assessed using investigation reports of the same accident which was investigated by the TTSB and the local supervisory authority respectively. Based on the assessment results, findings of the administrative investigation is more closely tied to errors of front line personnel than to organizational related factors. Safety investigation can identify not only unsafe acts of individual but also in-depth causal factors of organizational influences. The results show that the proposed methodology can identify differences between safety investigation and administrative investigation. Therefore, effective intervention strategies in associated areas can be better addressed for safety improvement and future accident prevention through safety investigation.

Keywords: administrative investigation, bayesian network, causal factor analysis system, safety investigation

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Authors: Eu Tteum Ha, Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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The smart home environment backed up by IoT (internet of things) technologies enables intelligent services based on the awareness of the situation a user is currently in. One of the convenient sensors for recognizing the situations within a home is the smart meter that can monitor the status of each electrical appliance in real time. This paper aims at learning a Bayesian network that models the causal relationship between the user situations and the status of the electrical appliances. Using such a network, we can infer the current situation based on the observed status of the appliances. However, learning the conditional probability tables (CPTs) of the network requires many training examples that cannot be obtained unless the user situations are closely monitored by any means. This paper proposes a method for learning the CPT entries of the network relying only on the user feedbacks generated occasionally. In our case study with a robot vacuum cleaner, the feedback comes in whenever the user gives an order to the robot adversely from its preprogrammed setting. Given a network with randomly initialized CPT entries, our proposed method uses this feedback information to adjust relevant CPT entries in the direction of increasing the probability of recognizing the desired situations. Simulation experiments show that our method can rapidly improve the recognition performance of the Bayesian network using a relatively small number of feedbacks.

Keywords: Bayesian network, IoT, learning, situation -awareness, smart home

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Authors: V. Makis, L. Jafari

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In this paper, we develop an optimal Bayesian chart to control the expected number of defects per inspection unit in production processes with long production runs. We formulate this control problem in the optimal stopping framework. The objective is to determine the optimal stopping rule minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time considering partial information obtained from the process sampling at regular epochs. We prove the optimality of the control limit policy, i.e., the process is stopped and the search for assignable causes is initiated when the posterior probability that the process is out of control exceeds a control limit. An algorithm in the semi-Markov decision process framework is developed to calculate the optimal control limit and the corresponding average cost. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the developed optimal control chart and to compare it with the traditional u-chart.

Keywords: Bayesian u-chart, economic design, optimal stopping, semi-Markov decision process, statistical process control

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Authors: Gunasekaran Raja, Rajakumar Arul, Kottilingam Kottursamy, Ramkumar Jayaraman, Sathya Pavithra, Swaminathan Venkatraman

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Wireless Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) utilizes the IEEE 802.1X mechanism for authentication. However, this mechanism incurs considerable delay during handoffs. This delay during handoffs results in service disruption which becomes a severe bottleneck. To overcome this delay, our article proposes a key caching mechanism based on user path prediction. If the user mobility follows that path, the user bypasses the normal IEEE 802.1X mechanism and establishes the necessary authentication keys directly. Through analytical and simulation modeling, we have proved that our mechanism effectively decreases the handoff delay thereby achieving fast authentication.

Keywords: authentication, authorization, and accounting (AAA), handoff, mobile, user path prediction (UPP) and user pattern

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Authors: Jude Opara, Esemokumo Perewarebo Akpos

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This paper is on non-parametric linear regression over its parametric counterparts with large sample size. Data set on anthropometric measurement of primary school pupils was taken for the analysis. The study used 50 randomly selected pupils for the study. The set of data was subjected to normality test, and it was discovered that the residuals are not normally distributed (i.e. they do not follow a Gaussian distribution) for the commonly used least squares regression method for fitting an equation into a set of (x,y)-data points using the Anderson-Darling technique. The algorithms for the nonparametric Theil’s regression are stated in this paper as well as its parametric OLS counterpart. The use of a programming language software known as “R Development” was used in this paper. From the analysis, the result showed that there exists a significant relationship between the response and the explanatory variable for both the parametric and non-parametric regression. To know the efficiency of one method over the other, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used, and it is discovered that the nonparametric regression performs better than its parametric regression counterparts due to their lower values in both the AIC and BIC. The study however recommends that future researchers should study a similar work by examining the presence of outliers in the data set, and probably expunge it if detected and re-analyze to compare results.

Keywords: Theil’s regression, Bayesian information criterion, Akaike information criterion, OLS

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Authors: Alamgir Naushad, Ghulam Abbas, Shehzad Ali Shah, Ziaul Haq Abbas

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Unlike conventional networks, it is particularly challenging to manage resources efficiently in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) due to their inherent characteristics, such as dynamic network topology and limited bandwidth and battery power. To ensure energy efficiency, this paper presents a routing protocol for WSNs, namely, Enhanced Hybrid Multipath Routing (EHMR), which employs hierarchical clustering and proposes a next hop selection mechanism between nodes according to a maximum residual energy metric together with a minimum hop count. Load-balancing of data traffic over multiple paths is achieved for a better packet delivery ratio and low latency rate. Reliability is ensured in terms of higher data rate and lower end-to-end delay. EHMR also enhances the fast-failure recovery mechanism to recover a failed path. Simulation results demonstrate that EHMR achieves a higher packet delivery ratio, reduced energy consumption per-packet delivery, lower end-to-end latency, and reduced effect of data rate on packet delivery ratio when compared with eminent WSN routing protocols.

Keywords: energy efficiency, load-balancing, hierarchical clustering, multipath routing, wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Gundula Bartzke, Hans-Peter Piepho

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Rainfall is a critical component of climate governing vegetation growth and production, forage availability and quality for herbivores. However, reliable rainfall measurements are not always available, making it necessary to predict rainfall values for particular locations through time. Predicting rainfall in space and time can be a complex and challenging task, especially where the rain gauge network is sparse and measurements are not recorded consistently for all rain gauges, leading to many missing values. Here, we develop a flexible Bayesian model for predicting rainfall in space and time and apply it to Narok County, situated in southwestern Kenya, using data collected at 23 rain gauges from 1965 to 2015. Narok County encompasses the Maasai Mara ecosystem, the northern-most section of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem, famous for its diverse and abundant large mammal populations and spectacular migration of enormous herds of wildebeest, zebra and Thomson's gazelle. The model incorporates geographical and meteorological predictor variables, including elevation, distance to Lake Victoria and minimum temperature. We assess the efficiency of the model by comparing it empirically with the established Gaussian process, Kriging, simple linear and Bayesian linear models. We use the model to predict total monthly rainfall and its standard error for all 5 * 5 km grid cells in Narok County. Using the Monte Carlo integration method, we estimate seasonal and annual rainfall and their standard errors for 29 sub-regions in Narok. Finally, we use the predicted rainfall to predict large herbivore biomass in the Maasai Mara ecosystem on a 5 * 5 km grid for both the wet and dry seasons. We show that herbivore biomass increases with rainfall in both seasons. The model can handle data from a sparse network of observations with many missing values and performs at least as well as or better than four established and widely used models, on the Narok data set. The model produces rainfall predictions consistent with expectation and in good agreement with the blended station and satellite rainfall values. The predictions are precise enough for most practical purposes. The model is very general and applicable to other variables besides rainfall.

Keywords: non-stationary covariance function, gaussian process, ungulate biomass, MCMC, maasai mara ecosystem

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Authors: M.Ayazi, N. Golshan Ebrahimi

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The development of antibacterial surface has devoted extensive researches and important field due to the growing antimicrobial resistance strains. The superhydrophobic surface has raised attention because of reducing bacteria adhesion in the absence of antibiotic agents. Evaluating the current development antibacterial surface has to be investigating to consider the potential of applying superhydrophobic surface to reduce bacterial adhesion or role of patterned surfaces on it. In this study, we present different samples with bio-inspired hierarchical and microstructures to consider their ability in reducing bacterial adhesion. The structures have inspired from rice-like pattern and lotus-leaf that developed on the polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) and polypropylene (PP). The results of the attachment behaviors have considered on two bacteria strains of gram-negative Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria and gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus). The reduction of bacteria adhesion on these roughness surfaces demonstrated the effectiveness of rinsing ability on removing bacterial cells on structured plastic surfaces. Results have also offered the important role of bacterial species, material chemistry and hierarchical structure to prevent bacterial adhesion.

Keywords: hierarchical structure, self-cleaning, lotus-effect, bactericidal

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Authors: Efrain Rodriguez, Sergio Pertuz, Cristhian Riano

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Tool-path generation is an essential step in the FFF (Fused Filament Fabrication)-based Additive Manufacturing (AM) process planning. In the manufacture of a mechanical part by using additive processes, high resource consumption and prolonged production times are inherent drawbacks of these processes mainly due to non-optimized tool-path generation. In this work, we propose a heuristic-search intelligent algorithm-based approach for optimized tool-path generation for FFF-based AM. The main benefit of this approach is a significant reduction of travels without material deposition when the AM machine performs moves without any extrusion. The optimization method used reduces the number of travels without extrusion in comparison with commercial software as Slic3r or Cura Engine, which means a reduction of production time.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, tool-path optimization, fused filament fabrication, process planning

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Authors: Xiong Xie, Yuhang Chen

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Vulnerability discovery technology is a significant field of the current. In this paper, a fuzzy framework based on concolic execution has been proposed. Fuzzy test and symbolic execution are widely used in the field of vulnerability discovery technology. But each of them has its own advantages and disadvantages. During the path generation stage, path traversal algorithm based on generation is used to get more accurate path. During the constraint solving stage, dynamic concolic execution is used to avoid the path explosion. If there is external call, the concolic based on function summary is used. Experiments show that the framework can effectively improve the ability of triggering vulnerabilities and code coverage.

Keywords: concolic execution, constraint solving, fuzzy test, vulnerability discovery

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Authors: M. A. Grigoryev, A. N. Shishkov, N. V. Savosteenko

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The article identifies optimal path motion of positional electric drive, for example, the feed of cold pilgering mill. It is shown that triangle is the optimum shape of the speed curve, and the ratio of its sides depends on the type of load diagram, in particular from the influence of the main drive of pilgering mill, and is not dependent on the presence of backlash and elasticity in the system. This thesis is proved analytically, and confirmed the results are obtained by a mathematical model that take into account the influence of the main drive-to-drive feed. By statistical analysis of oscillograph traces obtained on the real object allowed to give recommendations on the optimal control of the electric drive feed cold pilgering mill 450. Based on the data that the load torque depends on by hit the pipe in rolls of pilgering mill, occurs in the interval (0,6…0,75) tc, the recommended ratio of start time to the braking time is 2:1. Optimized path motion allowed get up to 25% more RMS torque for the cycle that allowed increased the productivity of the mill.

Keywords: optimal curve speed, positional electric drive, cold pilgering mill 450, optimal path motion

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Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

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The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

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Authors: Manar Amayri, Hussain Kazimi, Quoc-Dung Ngo, Stephane Ploix

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A general approach is proposed to determine occupant behavior (occupancy and activity) in residential buildings and to use these estimates for improved energy management. Occupant behaviour is modelled with a Bayesian Network in an unsupervised manner. This algorithm makes use of domain knowledge gathered via questionnaires and recorded sensor data for motion detection, power, and hot water consumption as well as indoor CO₂ concentration. Two case studies are presented which show the real world applicability of estimating occupant behaviour in this way. Furthermore, experiments integrating occupancy estimation and hot water production control show that energy efficiency can be increased by roughly 5% over known optimal control techniques and more than 25% over rule-based control while maintaining the same occupant comfort standards. The efficiency gains are strongly correlated with occupant behaviour and accuracy of the occupancy estimates.

Keywords: energy, management, control, optimization, Bayesian methods, learning theory, sensor networks, knowledge modelling and knowledge based systems, artificial intelligence, buildings

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Authors: Svenja Pieritz, Jakab Pilaszanovich

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Collaborative Problem Solving (CPS) is recognized as being one of the most important skills of the 21st century with having a potential impact on education, job selection, and collaborative systems design. Therefore, CPS has been adopted in several standardized tests, including the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) in 2015. A significant challenge of evaluating CPS is the underlying interplay of cognitive and social skills, which requires a more holistic assessment. However, the majority of the existing tests are using a questionnaire-based assessment, which oversimplifies this interplay and undermines ecological validity. Two major difficulties were identified: Firstly, the creation of a controllable, real-time environment allowing natural behaviors and communication between at least two people. Secondly, the development of an appropriate method to collect and synthesize both cognitive and social metrics of collaboration. This paper proposes a more holistic and automated approach to the assessment of CPS. To address these two difficulties, a multiplayer problem-solving game called Sea of Light was developed: An environment allowing students to deploy a variety of measurable collaborative strategies. This controlled environment enables researchers to monitor behavior through the analysis of game actions and chat. The according solution for the statistical model is a combined approach of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Bayesian network analysis. Social exchanges via the in-game chat are analyzed through NLP and fed into the Bayesian network along with other game actions. This Bayesian network synthesizes evidence to track and update different subdimensions of CPS. Major findings focus on the correlations between the evidences collected through in- game actions, the participants’ chat features and the CPS self- evaluation metrics. These results give an indication of which game mechanics can best describe CPS evaluation. Overall, Sea of Light gives test administrators control over different problem-solving scenarios and difficulties while keeping the student engaged. It enables a more complete assessment based on complex, socio-cognitive information on actions and communication. This tool permits further investigations of the effects of group constellations and personality in collaborative problem-solving.

Keywords: bayesian network, collaborative problem solving, game-based assessment, natural language processing

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Authors: Pyung Soo Kim

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This paper proposes an optimized reactive fast intermobility anchor point (MAP) handover scheme for Hierarchical Mobile IPv6, called the ORFH-HMIPv6, to minimize packet loss of the existing scheme. The key idea of the proposed ORFHHMIPv6 scheme is that the serving MAP buffers packets toward the mobile node (MN) as soon as the link layer between MN and serving base station is disconnected. To implement the proposed scheme, the MAP discovery message exchanged between MN and serving MAP is extended. In addition, the IEEE 802.21 Media Independent Handover Function (MIHF) event service message is defined newly. Through analytic performance evaluation, the proposed ORFH-HMIPv6 scheme can be shown to minimize packet loss much than the existing scheme.

Keywords: hierarchical mobile IPv6 (HMIPv6), fast handover, reactive behavior, packet loss

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Authors: Aouina Nabila Yasmina, Chaoui Zine El Abiddine

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This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the elastic mean free path (EMFP) of electrons colliding with pyrimidine, a precursor to the pyrimidine bases in DNA, employing the Screen Corrected Additivity Rule (SCAR) method. The SCAR method is introduced as a novel approach that combines classical and quantum mechanical principles to elucidate the interaction of electrons with pyrimidine. One of the most fundamental properties characterizing the propagation of a particle in the nuclear medium is its mean free path. Knowledge of the elastic mean free path is essential to accurately predict the effects of radiation on biological matter, as it contributes to the distances between collisions. Additionally, the mean free path plays a role in the interpretation of almost all experiments in which an excited electron moves through a solid. Pyrimidine, the precursor of the pyrimidine bases of DNA, has interesting physicochemical properties, which make it an interesting molecule to study from a fundamental point of view. These include a relatively large dipole polarizability and dipole moment and an electronic charge cloud with a significant spatial extension, which justifies its choice in this present study.

Keywords: elastic mean free path, elastic collision, pyrimidine, SCAR

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Authors: Isao Tomita

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The detection of environmental gases, 12CO_2, 13CO_2, and CH_4, using near-infrared semiconductor lasers with a short laser path length is studied by means of wavelength-modulation spectroscopy. The developed system is compact and has high sensitivity enough to detect the absorption peaks of isotopic 13CO_2 of a 3-% CO_2 gas at 2 um with a path length of 2.4 m, where its peak size is two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the ordinary 12CO_2 peaks. In addition, the detection of 12CO_2 peaks of a 385-ppm (0.0385-%) CO_2 gas in the air is made at 2 um with a path length of 1.4 m. Furthermore, in pursuing the detection of an ancient environmental CH_4 gas confined to a bubble in ice at the polar regions, measurements of the absorption spectrum for a trace gas of CH_4 in a small area are attempted. For a 100-% CH_4 gas trapped in a 1 mm^3 glass container, the absorption peaks of CH_4 are obtained at 1.65 um with a path length of 3 mm, and also the gas pressure is extrapolated from the measured data.

Keywords: environmental gases, Near-Infrared Laser Detection, Wavelength-Modulation Spectroscopy, gas pressure

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Authors: Nasar Aldian Ambark Shashoa

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Classification with a dimension reduction based on Bayesian approach is proposed in this paper . The first step is to generate a sample (parameter) of fault-free mode class and faulty mode class. The second, in order to obtain good classification performance, a selection of important features is done with the discrete karhunen-loeve expansion. Next, the Bayes test for minimum error is used to classify the classes. Finally, the results for simulated data demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed procedure.

Keywords: analytical redundancy, fault detection, feature extraction, Bayesian approach

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Authors: Sang Ho Lee, Tae Heon Moon, Youn Taik Leem, Kwang Woo Nam

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Knowledge and IT inputs to other industrial production have become more important as a key factor for the competitiveness of national and regional economies, such as knowledge economies in smart cities. Knowledge and IT industries lead the industrial innovation and technical (r)evolution through low cost, high efficiency in production, and by creating a new value chain and new production path chains, which is referred as knowledge and IT dynamics. This study aims to investigate the knowledge and IT dynamics in Korea, which are analyzed through the input-output model and structural path analysis. Twenty-eight industries were reclassified into seven categories; Agriculture and Mining, IT manufacture, Non-IT manufacture, Construction, IT-service, Knowledge service, Non-knowledge service to take close look at the knowledge and IT dynamics. Knowledge and IT dynamics were analyzed through the change of input output coefficient and multiplier indices in terms of technical innovation, as well as the changes of the structural paths of the knowledge and IT to other industries in terms of new production value creation from 1985 and 2010. The structural paths of knowledge and IT explain not only that IT foster the generation, circulation and use of knowledge through IT industries and IT-based service, but also that knowledge encourages IT use through creating, sharing and managing knowledge. As a result, this paper found the empirical investigation on the knowledge and IT dynamics of the Korean economy. Knowledge and IT has played an important role regarding the inter-industrial transactional input for production, as well as new industrial creation. The birth of the input-output production path has mostly originated from the knowledge and IT industries, while the death of the input-output production path took place in the traditional industries from 1985 and 2010. The Korean economy has been in transition to a knowledge economy in the Smart City.

Keywords: knowledge and IT industries, input-output model, structural path analysis, dynamics of knowledge and it, knowledge economy, knowledge city and smart city

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Authors: Anderson Rocha, Pedro Miguel de Figueiredo Dinis Oliveira Gaspar

Abstract:

Machine vision has been widely used in recent years in agriculture, as a tool to promote the automation of processes and increase the levels of productivity. The aim of this work is the development of a path recognition algorithm based on image processing to guide a terrestrial robot in-between tree rows. The proposed algorithm was developed using the software MATLAB, and it uses several image processing operations, such as threshold detection, morphological erosion, histogram equalization and the Hough transform, to find edge lines along tree rows on an image and to create a path to be followed by a mobile robot. To develop the algorithm, a set of images of different types of orchards was used, which made possible the construction of a method capable of identifying paths between trees of different heights and aspects. The algorithm was evaluated using several images with different characteristics of quality and the results showed that the proposed method can successfully detect a path in different types of environments.

Keywords: agricultural mobile robot, image processing, path recognition, hough transform

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Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

Abstract:

Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

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