Search results for: hierarchical Bayesian mode

Authors: Jing Yuan, Hongwei Yang

Abstract:

This paper aims to understand U.S. middle school students’ mathematics achievements by examining relevant student and school-level predictors. Through a variance component analysis, the study first identifies evidence supporting the use of multilevel modeling. Then, a multilevel analysis is performed under Bayesian statistical inference where prior information is incorporated into the modeling process. During the analysis, independent variables are entered sequentially in the order of theoretical importance to create a hierarchy of models. By evaluating each model using Bayesian fit indices, a best-fit and most parsimonious model is selected where Bayesian statistical inference is performed for the purpose of result interpretation and discussion. The primary dataset for Bayesian modeling is derived from the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) in 2012 with a secondary PISA dataset from 2003 analyzed under the traditional ordinary least squares method to provide the information needed to specify informative priors for a subset of the model parameters. The dependent variable is a composite measure of mathematics literacy, calculated from an exploratory factor analysis of all five PISA 2012 mathematics achievement plausible values for which multiple evidences are found supporting data unidimensionality. The independent variables include demographics variables and content-specific variables: mathematics efficacy, teacher-student ratio, proportion of girls in the school, etc. Finally, the entire analysis is performed using the MCMCpack and MCMCglmm packages in R.

Keywords: Bayesian multilevel modeling, mathematics education, PISA, multilevel

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Farouk Metiri, Halim Zeghdoudi, Mohamed Riad Remita

Abstract:

Credibility theory is an experience rating technique in actuarial science which can be seen as one of quantitative tools that allows the insurers to perform experience rating, that is, to adjust future premiums based on past experiences. It is used usually in automobile insurance, worker's compensation premium, and IBNR (incurred but not reported claims to the insurer) where credibility theory can be used to estimate the claim size amount. In this study, we focused on a popular tool in credibility theory which is the Bayesian premium estimator, considering Lindley distribution as a claim distribution. We derive this estimator under entropy loss which is asymmetric and squared error loss which is a symmetric loss function with informative and non-informative priors. In a purely Bayesian setting, the prior distribution represents the insurer’s prior belief about the insured’s risk level after collection of the insured’s data at the end of the period. However, the explicit form of the Bayesian premium in the case when the prior is not a member of the exponential family could be quite difficult to obtain as it involves a number of integrations which are not analytically solvable. The paper finds a solution to this problem by deriving this estimator using numerical approximation (Lindley approximation) which is one of the suitable approximation methods for solving such problems, it approaches the ratio of the integrals as a whole and produces a single numerical result. Simulation study using Monte Carlo method is then performed to evaluate this estimator and mean squared error technique is made to compare the Bayesian premium estimator under the above loss functions.

Keywords: bayesian estimator, credibility theory, entropy loss, monte carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: Redouane Tlemsani, Abdelkader Benyettou

Abstract:

Work is in on line Arabic character recognition and the principal motivation is to study the Arab manuscript with on line technology. This system is a Markovian system, which one can see as like a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). One of the major interests of these systems resides in the complete models training (topology and parameters) starting from training data. Our approach is based on the dynamic Bayesian Networks formalism. The DBNs theory is a Bayesians networks generalization to the dynamic processes. Among our objective, amounts finding better parameters, which represent the links (dependences) between dynamic network variables. In applications in pattern recognition, one will carry out the fixing of the structure, which obliges us to admit some strong assumptions (for example independence between some variables). Our application will relate to the Arabic isolated characters on line recognition using our laboratory database: NOUN. A neural tester proposed for DBN external optimization. The DBN scores and DBN mixed are respectively 70.24% and 62.50%, which lets predict their further development; other approaches taking account time were considered and implemented until obtaining a significant recognition rate 94.79%.

Keywords: Arabic on line character recognition, dynamic Bayesian network, pattern recognition, computer vision

Procedia PDF Downloads 400

Authors: Tahir Nawaz Cheema, Dumitru Baleanu, Ali Raza

Abstract:

In this research work, we design intelligent computing through Bayesian Regularization artificial neural networks (BRANNs) introduced to solve the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases (Covid-19). The dynamical transmission is due to the interaction of people and its mathematical representation based on the system's nonlinear differential equations. The generation of the dataset of the Covid-19 model is exploited by the power of the explicit Runge Kutta method for different countries of the world like India, Pakistan, Italy, and many more. The generated dataset is approximately used for training, testing, and validation processes for every frequent update in Bayesian Regularization backpropagation for numerical behavior of the dynamics of the Covid-19 model. The performance and effectiveness of designed methodology BRANNs are checked through mean squared error, error histograms, numerical solutions, absolute error, and regression analysis.

Keywords: mathematical models, beysian regularization, bayesian-regularization backpropagation networks, regression analysis, numerical computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Endeshaw Assefa Derso, Maria Gabriella Campolo, Angela Alibrandi

Abstract:

Objectives:Early childhood malnutrition can have long-term and irreversible effects on a child's health and development. This study uses the Bayesian method with spatial variation to investigate the flexible trends of metrical covariates and to identify communities at high risk of injury. Methods: Cross-sectional data on underweight are collected from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). The Bayesian geo-additive model is performed. Appropriate prior distributions were provided for scall parameters in the models, and the inference is entirely Bayesian, using Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) stimulation. Results: The results show that metrical covariates like child age, maternal body mass index (BMI), and maternal age affect a child's underweight non-linearly. Lower and higher maternal BMI seem to have a significant impact on the child’s high underweight. There was also a significant spatial heterogeneity, and based on IDW interpolation of predictive values, the western, central, and eastern parts of the country are hotspot areas. Conclusion: Socio-demographic and community- based programs development should be considered compressively in Ethiopian policy to combat childhood underweight malnutrition.

Keywords: bayesX, Ethiopia, malnutrition, MCMC, semi-parametric bayesian analysis, spatial distribution, P- splines

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Levy flight, distributed constraint optimization problem, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: P. Kooche Baghy, S. Eskandari, E.javanmard

Abstract:

Neural network has been used as a predictive means of cold rolling force in this dissertation. Thus, imposed average force on rollers as a mere input and five pertaining parameters to its as a outputs are regarded. According to our study, feed-forward multilayer perceptron network has been selected. Besides, Bayesian algorithm based on the feed-forward back propagation method has been selected due to noisy data. Further, 470 out of 585 all tests were used for network learning and others (115 tests) were considered as assessment criteria. Eventually, by 30 times running the MATLAB software, mean error was obtained 3.84 percent as a criteria of network learning. As a consequence, this the mentioned error on par with other approaches such as numerical and empirical methods is acceptable admittedly.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Bayesian, cold rolling, force evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 407

Authors: Gabriel Calvo, Carmen Armero, Luigi Spezia

Abstract:

A basketball player is said to have a hot hand if his/her performance is better than expected in different periods of time. A way to deal with this phenomenon is to make use of latent variables, which can indicate whether the player is ‘on fire’ or not. This work aims to model the hot hand phenomenon through a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) with two states (cold and hot) and two different probability of success depending on the corresponding hidden state. This task is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study. The simulated data sets emulate the field goal attempts in an NBA season from different profile players. This model can be a powerful tool to assess the ‘streakiness’ of each player, and it provides information about the general performance of the players during the match. Finally, the Bayesian HMM allows computing the posterior probability of any type of streak.

Keywords: Bernoulli trials, field goals, latent variables, posterior distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Aman Sharma, Sonali Sengupta

Abstract:

The study explores the utility of Bayesian optimization in tuning the physical and chemical parameters of reactions in an offline experimental setup. A comparative analysis of the influence of the acquisition function on the optimization performance is also studied. For proxy first and second-order reactions, the results are indifferent to the acquisition function used, whereas, while studying the parameters for oxidative desulphurization of thiophene in an offline setup, upper confidence bound (UCB) provides faster convergence along with a marginal trade-off in the maximum conversion achieved. The work also demarcates the critical number of independent parameters and input observations required for both sequential and offline reaction setups to yield tangible results.

Keywords: acquisition function, Bayesian optimization, desulfurization, kinetics, thiophene

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Sofia M. Karadimitriou, Kostas Triantafyllopoulos, Timothy Heaton

Abstract:

Reduced dimension Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Models (DSTMs) jointly describe the spatial and temporal evolution of a function observed subject to noise. A basic state space model is adopted for the discrete temporal variation, while a continuous autoregressive structure describes the continuous spatial evolution. Application of such a DSTM relies upon the pre-selection of a suitable reduced set of basic functions and this can present a challenge in practice. In this talk, we propose an online estimation method for high dimensional spatio-temporal data based upon DSTM and we attempt to resolve this issue by allowing the basis to adapt to the observed data. Specifically, we present a wavelet decomposition in order to obtain a parsimonious approximation of the spatial continuous process. This parsimony can be achieved by placing a Laplace prior distribution on the wavelet coefficients. The aim of using the Laplace prior, is to filter wavelet coefficients with low contribution, and thus achieve the dimension reduction with significant computation savings. We then propose a Hierarchical Bayesian State Space model, for the estimation of which we offer an appropriate particle filter algorithm. The proposed methodology is illustrated using real environmental data.

Keywords: multidimensional Laplace prior, particle filtering, spatio-temporal modelling, wavelets

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: A. Abdikian

Abstract:

A quantum breathing mode has been theatrically studied in quantum dusty plasma. By using linear quantum hydrodynamic model, not only the quantum dispersion relation of rotation mode but also void structure has been derived in the presence of an external magnetic field. Although the phase velocity of the magnetized quantum breathing mode is greater than that of unmagnetized quantum breathing mode, attenuation of the magnetized quantum breathing mode along radial distance seems to be slower than that of unmagnetized quantum breathing mode. Clearly, drawing the quantum breathing mode in the presence and absence of a magnetic field, we found that the magnetic field alters the distribution of dust particles and changes the radial and azimuthal velocities around the axis. Because the magnetic field rotates the dust particles and collects them, it could compensate the void structure.

Keywords: the linear quantum hydrodynamic model, the magnetized quantum breathing mode, the quantum dispersion relation of rotation mode, void structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed

Abstract:

These papers describe the Bayesian Estimator using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Lindley’s approximation and the maximum likelihood estimation of the Weibull distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood method can’t estimate the shape parameter in closed forms, although it can be solved by numerical methods. Moreover, the Bayesian estimates of the parameters, the survival and hazard functions cannot be solved analytically. Hence Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Lindley’s approximation are used, where the full conditional distribution for the parameters of Weibull distribution are obtained via Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (HM) followed by estimate the survival and hazard functions. The methods are compared to Maximum Likelihood counterparts and the comparisons are made with respect to the Mean Square Error (MSE) and absolute bias to determine the better method in scale and shape parameters, the survival and hazard functions.

Keywords: weibull distribution, bayesian method, markov chain mote carlo, survival and hazard functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 448

Authors: Fayssal Ynineb, Toufik Hadjersi, Fatsah Moulai, Wafa Achour

Abstract:

Currently, tremendous attention has been paid to the rational design and synthesis of core/shell heterostructures for high-performance supercapacitors. In this study, the hierarchical NiO/ZnCo₂O₄ Core-Shell Nanorods Arrays were successfully deposited onto ITO substrate via a two-step hydrothermal and electrodeposition methods. The effect of the thin carbon layer between NiO and ZnCo₂O₄ in this multi-scale hierarchical structure was investigated. The selection of this structure was based on: (i) a high specific area of pseudo-capacitive NiO to maximize specific capacitance; (ii) an effective NiO-electrolyte interface to facilitate fast charging/discharging; and (iii) conducting carbon layer between ZnCo₂O₄ and NiO enhance the electric conductivity which reduces energy loss, and the corrosion protection of ZnCo₂O₄ in alkaline electrolyte. The obtained results indicate that hierarchical NiO/ZnCo₂O₄ present a high specific capacitance of 63 mF.cm⁻² at a current density of 0.05 mA.cm⁻² higher than that of pristine NiO and ZnCo₂O₄ of 6 and 3 mF.cm⁻², respectively. The carbon layer improves the electrical conductivity among NiO and ZnCo₂O₄ in the hierarchical NiO/C/ZnCo₂O₄ electrode. As well, the specific capacitance drastically increased to reach 125 mF.cm⁻². Moreover, this multi-scale hierarchical structure exhibits superior cycling stability with ~ 95.7 % capacitance retention after 65k cycles. These results indicate that the NiO/C/ZnCo₂O₄ nanocomposite material is an outstanding electrode material for supercapacitors.

Keywords: NiO/C/ZnCo₂O₄, specific capacitance, hydrothermal, supercapacitors

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Zhang Lei, Zhan Haiyang, Gu Miao

Abstract:

A universal software platform is developed for improving the defects in the practical one. This software platform has distinct advantages in modularization, information management, and the interfaces. Several technologies such as computer technology, virtualization technology, network technology, etc. are combined together in this software platform, and four working modes are introduced in this article including single mode, distributed mode, cloud mode, and the centralized mode. The application area of the software platform is extended through the switch between these working modes. The software platform can arrange the thermal vacuum test process automatically. This function can improve the reliability of thermal vacuum test.

Keywords: software platform, thermal vacuum test, control and measurement, work mode

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Phanumas Khumsat, Chalermchai Janmane

Abstract:

Low-voltage instrumentation amplifier has been proposed for 3-lead electrocardiogram measurement system. The circuit’s interference rejection technique is based upon common-mode feed-forwarding where common-mode currents have cancelled each other at the output nodes. The common-mode current for cancellation is generated by means of common-mode sensing and emitter or source followers with resistors employing only one transistor. Simultaneously this particular transistor also provides common-mode feedback to the patient’s right/left leg to further reduce interference entering the amplifier. The proposed designs have been verified with simulations in 0.18-µm CMOS process operating under 1.0-V supply with CMRR greater than 80dB. Moreover ECG signals have experimentally recorded with the proposed instrumentation amplifiers implemented from discrete BJT (BC547, BC558) and MOSFET (ALD1106, ALD1107) transistors working with 1.5-V supply.

Keywords: electrocardiogram, common-mode feedback, common-mode feedforward, communication engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 353

Authors: Jaime E. Fernandez, Pablo J. Valverde

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodological approach that aims to contrast/validate theoretical results from a corruption network game through probabilistic analysis of simulated microdata using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The research develops a public corruption model in a game theory framework. Theoretical results suggest a series of 'optimal settings' of model's exogenous parameters that boost the emergence of corruption. The paper contrasts these outcomes with probabilistic inference results based on BNs adjusted over simulated microdata. Principal findings indicate that probabilistic reasoning based on BNs significantly improves parameter specification and causal analysis in a public corruption game.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, probabilistic reasoning, public corruption, theoretical games

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Artiya Sopharak, Tosaphol Ratniyomchai, Thanatchai Kulworawanichpong

Abstract:

This paper presents an energy-saving study of Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) using an optimal train coasting operation. For the dynamic train movement with four modes of operation, including accelerating mode, constant speed or cruising mode, coasting mode, and braking mode are considered in this study. The acceleration rate, the deceleration rate, and the starting coasting point are taken into account the optimal train speed profile during coasting mode with considering the energy saving and acceptable travel time comparison to the based case with no coasting operation. In this study, the mathematical method as a Quadratic Search Method (QDS) is conducted to carry out the optimization problem. A single train of MRT services between two stations with a distance of 2 km and a maximum speed of 80 km/h is taken to be the case study. Regarding the coasting mode operation, the results show that the longer distance of costing mode, the less energy consumption in cruising mode and the less braking energy. On the other hand, the shorter distance of coasting mode, the more energy consumption in cruising mode and the more braking energy.

Keywords: energy saving, coasting mode, mass rapid transit, quadratic search method

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Amarpreet Singh, Kimi Manchanda

Abstract:

Intended for providing the security in the VANETS (Vehicular Ad hoc Network) scenario, the covert storage channel is implemented through data transmitted between the sender and the receiver. Covert channels are the logical links which are used for the communication purpose and hiding the secure data from the intruders. This paper refers to the Establishment of bit selective mode covert storage channels in VANETS. In this scenario, the data is being transmitted with two modes i.e. the normal mode and the covert mode. During the communication between vehicles in this scenario, the controlling of bits is possible through the optional bits of IPV6 Header Format. This implementation is fulfilled with the help of Network simulator.

Keywords: covert mode, normal mode, VANET, OBU, on-board unit

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Gianna Zou

Abstract:

Propensity score matching (PSM), introduced by Paul R. Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin in 1983, is a popular statistical matching technique which tries to estimate the treatment effects by taking into account covariates that could impact the efficacy of study medication in clinical trials. PSM can be used to reduce the bias due to confounding variables. However, PSM assumes that the response values are normally distributed. In some cases, this assumption may not be held. In this paper, a machine learning method - Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART), is used as a more robust method of matching. BART can work well when models are misspecified since it can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects. Moreover, it has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multiway interactions. In this research, a BART Matching Method (BMM) is proposed to provide a more reliable matching method over PSM. By comparing the analysis results from PSM and BMM, BMM can perform well and has better prediction capability when the response values are not normally distributed.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, matching, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Ching Louis Liu, Edmund Kazmierczak, Tim Miller

Abstract:

Safety analysis for multi-agent systems is complicated by the, potentially nonlinear, interactions between agents. This paper proposes a method for analyzing the safety of multi-agent systems by explicitly focusing on interactions and the accident data of systems that are similar in structure and function to the system being analyzed. The method creates a Bayesian network using the accident data from similar systems. A feature of our method is that the events in accident data are labeled with HAZOP guide words. Our method uses an Ontology to abstract away from the details of a multi-agent implementation. Using the ontology, our methods then constructs an “Interaction Map,” a graphical representation of the patterns of interactions between agents and other artifacts. Interaction maps combined with statistical data from accidents and the HAZOP classifications of events can be converted into a Bayesian Network. Bayesian networks allow designers to explore “what it” scenarios and make design trade-offs that maintain safety. We show how to use the Bayesian networks, and the interaction maps to improve multi-agent system designs.

Keywords: multi-agent system, safety analysis, safety model, integration map

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Ajay R, Rammohan B, Sridhar K S S, Gurusharan N

Abstract:

The objective of the work is to develop a numerical method to solve the inverse mode shape problem by determining the cross-sectional area of a structure for the desired mode shape via the vibration response study of the humerus bone, which is in the form of a cantilever beam with anisotropic material properties. The humerus bone is the long bone in the arm that connects the shoulder to the elbow. The mode shape is assumed to be a higher-order polynomial satisfying a prescribed set of boundary conditions to converge the numerical algorithm. The natural frequency and the mode shapes are calculated for different boundary conditions to find the cross-sectional area of humerus bone from Eigenmode shape with the aid of the inverse mode shape algorithm. The cross-sectional area of humerus bone validates the mode shapes of specific boundary conditions. The numerical method to solve the inverse mode shape problem is validated in the biomedical application by finding the cross-sectional area of a humerus bone in the human arm.

Keywords: Cross-sectional area, Humerus bone, Inverse mode shape problem, Mode shape

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

Abstract:

In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.

Keywords: ARIMA, auto correlation, Bayesian network, forecasting models, life cycle, partial correlation, renewable energy, SARIMA, solar energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Colin Smith, Linsey S Passarella

Abstract:

Due to the proliferation and decentralized nature of academic publication, no widely accepted scheme exists for organizing papers by their scientific field of study (FoS) to the author’s best knowledge. While many academic journals require author provided keywords for papers, these keywords range wildly in scope and are not consistent across papers, journals, or field domains, necessitating alternative approaches to paper classification. Past attempts to perform field-of-study (FoS) classification on scientific texts have largely used a-hierarchical FoS schemas or ignored the schema’s inherently hierarchical structure, e.g. by compressing the structure into a single layer for multi-label classification. In this paper, we introduce an application of a Layered Neural Network (LNN) to the problem of performing supervised hierarchical classification of scientific fields of study (FoS) on research papers. In this approach, paper embeddings from a pretrained language model are fed into a top-down LNN. Beginning with a single neural network (NN) for the highest layer of the class hierarchy, each node uses a separate local NN to classify the subsequent subfield child node(s) for an input embedding of concatenated paper titles and abstracts. We compare our LNN-FOS method to other recent machine learning methods using the Microsoft Academic Graph (MAG) FoS hierarchy and find that the LNN-FOS offers increased classification accuracy at each FoS hierarchical level.

Keywords: hierarchical classification, layer neural network, scientific field of study, scientific taxonomy

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Christoph Ramsauer, Jaydeep Karandikar, Tony Schmitz, Friedrich Bleicher

Abstract:

Machining stability is an important limitation to discrete part machining. In this work, a networked implementation of milling stability optimization with Bayesian learning is presented. The milling process was monitored with a wireless sensory tool holder instrumented with an accelerometer at the Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria. The recorded data from a milling test cut is used to classify the cut as stable or unstable based on the frequency analysis. The test cut result is fed to a Bayesian stability learning algorithm at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. The algorithm calculates the probability of stability as a function of axial depth of cut and spindle speed and recommends the parameters for the next test cut. The iterative process between two transatlantic locations repeats until convergence to a stable optimal process parameter set is achieved.

Keywords: machining stability, machine learning, sensor, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Davood Mousanezhad, Ashkan Vaziri

Abstract:

As a traditional cellular structure, hexagonal honeycombs are known for their high strength-to-weight ratio. Here, we introduce a class of fractal-appearing hierarchical metamaterials by replacing the vertices of the original non-hierarchical hexagonal grid with smaller hexagons and iterating this process to achieve higher levels of hierarchy. It has been recently shown that the isotropic in-plane Young's modulus of this hierarchical structure at small deformations becomes 25 times greater than its regular counterpart with the same mass. At large deformations, we find that hierarchy-dependent elastic buckling introduced at relatively early stages of deformation decreases the value of Poisson's ratio as the structure is compressed uniaxially leading to auxeticity (i.e., negative Poisson's ratio) in subsequent stages of deformation. We also show that the topological hierarchical architecture and instability-induced pattern transformations of the structure under compression can be effectively used to tune the propagation of elastic waves within the structure. We find that the hierarchy tends to shift the existing phononic bandgaps (defined as frequency ranges of strong wave attenuation) to lower frequencies while opening up new bandgaps. Deformation is also demonstrated as another mechanism for opening more bandgaps in hierarchical structures. The results provide new insights into the role of structural organization and hierarchy in regulating mechanical properties of materials at both the static and dynamic regimes.

Keywords: cellular structures, honeycombs, hierarchical structures, metamaterials, multifunctional structures, phononic crystals, auxetic structures

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Mackenzie Leake, Liyu Xia, Kamil Rocki, Wayne Imaino

Abstract:

In the Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) paradigm the effect of overlap between inputs on the activation of columns in the spatial pooler is studied. Numerical results suggest that similar inputs are represented by similar sets of columns and dissimilar inputs are represented by dissimilar sets of columns. It is shown that the spatial pooler produces these results under certain conditions for the connectivity and proximal thresholds. Following the discussion of the initialization of parameters for the thresholds, corresponding qualitative arguments about the learning dynamics of the spatial pooler are discussed.

Keywords: hierarchical temporal memory, HTM, learning algorithms, machine learning, spatial pooler

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Xiuying Wang, Changliang Li, Bo Xu

Abstract:

A fixed-length feature vector is required for many machine learning algorithms in NLP field. Word embeddings have been very successful at learning lexical information. However, they cannot capture the compositional meaning of sentences, which prevents them from a deeper understanding of language. In this paper, we introduce a novel hierarchical tree long short-term memory (HTLSTM) model that learns vector representations for sentences of arbitrary syntactic type and length. We propose to split one sentence into three hierarchies: short phrase, long phrase and full sentence level. The HTLSTM model gives our algorithm the potential to fully consider the hierarchical information and long-term dependencies of language. We design the experiments on both English and Chinese corpus to evaluate our model on sentiment analysis task. And the results show that our model outperforms several existing state of the art approaches significantly.

Keywords: deep learning, hierarchical tree long short-term memory, sentence representation, sentiment analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

Abstract:

Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasing attention from construction industry due to its reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, unavailable IPD specific insurance concerns the industry participants who are interested in IPD implementation. Even though the risk management capability can be enhanced using shared risk mechanism, some risks may occur when the partners do not commit themselves into the integrated practices in a desired manner. This is because the intense collaboration and close integration can not only create added value but bring new opportunistic behaviors and disputes. The study is aimed to investigate the risks of implementing IPD using Bayesian theory. IPD risk taxonomy is presented to identify all potential risks of implementing IPD and a risk network map is developed to capture the interdependencies between IPD risks. The conditional relations between risk occurrences and the impacts of IPD risks on project performances are evaluated and simulated based on Bayesian theory. The probability of project outcomes is predicted by simulation. In addition, it is found that some risks caused by integration are most possible occurred risks. This study can help the IPD project participants identify critical risks of adopting IPD to improve project performances. In addition, it is helpful to develop IPD specific insurance when the pertinent risks can be identified.

Keywords: Bayesian theory, integrated project delivery, project risks, project performances

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, predict, stock

Procedia PDF Downloads 94