Search results for: geographic trends

Authors: Sandeep J. Kumar

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Urbanisation is considered as the primary driver of land use and land cover change that has direct link to population and economic growth. In India, as well as in other developing countries, cities are urbanizing at an alarming rate. This unprecedented and uncontrolled urbanisation can result in urban sprawl. Due to a number of factors, urban sprawl is recognised to be a result of poor planning, inadequate policies, and poor governance. Urban sprawl may be seen as posing a threat to the development of sustainable cities. Hence, it is very essential to manage this. Planning for predicted future growth is critical to avoid the negative effects of urban growth at the local and regional levels. Thiruvananthapuram being the capital city of Kerala is a city of economic success, challenges, and opportunities. Urbanization trends in the city have paved way for Urban Sprawl. This thesis aims to formulate a framework to combat the emerging urban sprawl in the city of Thiruvananthapuram. For that, the first step was to quantify trends of urban growth in Thiruvananthapuram city using Geographical Information System(GIS) and remote sensing techniques. The technique and results obtained in the study are extremely valuable in analysing the land use changes. Secondly, these change in the trends were analysed through some of the critical factors that helped the study to understand the underlying issues of the existing city structure that has resulted in urban sprawl. Anticipating development trends can modify the current order. This can be productively resolved using regional and municipal planning and management strategies. Hence efficient strategies to curb the sprawl in Thiruvananthapuram city have been formulated in this study that can be considered as recommendations for future planning.

Keywords: urbanisation, urban sprawl, geographical information system(GIS), thiruvananthapuram

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Authors: Uroš Durlević, Ivan Novković, Nina Čegar, Stefanija Stojković

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Snow avalanches represent one of the most dangerous natural phenomena in mountain regions worldwide. Material and human casualties caused by snow avalanches can be very significant. In this study, using geographic information systems and remote sensing, the natural conditions of the Šar Mountains were analyzed for geospatial modeling of dry slab avalanches. For this purpose, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) multi-criteria analysis method was used, within which fifteen environmental criteria were analyzed and evaluated. Based on the existing analyzes and results, it was determined that a significant area of the Šar Mountains is very highly susceptible to the occurrence of dry slab avalanches. The obtained data can be of significant use to local governments, emergency services, and other institutions that deal with natural disasters at the local level. To our best knowledge, this is one of the first research in the Republic of Serbia that uses the FAHP method for geospatial modeling of dry slab avalanches.

Keywords: GIS, FAHP, Šar Mountains, snow avalanches, environmental protection

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Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

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The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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Authors: Kwaku Damoah

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The agricultural sector is characterized by continuous transformation, driven by factors such as demographic shifts, evolving consumer preferences, climate change, and migration trends. This dynamic environment presents complex challenges for key stakeholders including farmers, governments, and investors, who must navigate these changes to achieve optimal investment returns. To effectively predict market trends and uncover promising investment opportunities, a systematic, data-driven approach is essential. This paper introduces the Structural Evolution Index (SEI), a machine learning-based methodology. SEI is specifically designed to analyse long-term trends and forecast the potential of emerging agricultural products for investment. Versatile in application, it evaluates various agricultural metrics such as production, yield, trade, land use, and consumption, providing a comprehensive view of the evolution within agricultural markets. By harnessing data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAOSTAT), this study demonstrates the SEI's capabilities through Comparative Exploratory Analysis and evaluation of international trade in agricultural products, focusing on Malaysia and Singapore. The SEI methodology reveals intricate patterns and transitions within the agricultural sector, enabling stakeholders to strategically identify and capitalize on emerging markets. This predictive framework is a powerful tool for decision-makers, offering crucial insights that help anticipate market shifts and align investments with anticipated returns.

Keywords: agricultural investment, algorithm, comparative exploratory analytics, machine learning, market trends, predictive analytics, structural evolution index

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Authors: Anwar Elsadat Elmahal, Ahmed Abdalla

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The population in Sudan has recently grown to a significant level, Khartoum city the capital has the major portion of this growth. Khartoum is separated by three Niles and linked by eight bridges to Khartoum North and Omdurman. The construction of these bridges disrupted the natural flow of water and sediments which will consequently be reflected on the geomorphological settings of fluvial islands including erosion and sedimentation patterns. The objective of this study is to monitor and assess the development of fluvial islands in Khartoum State up to Sabaloka Gorge using Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. Landsat Images captured during the period from 1975-2015 with standard false color and standardized 30 m resolution were found useful in understanding the impacts of bridges on disrupting the fluvial cycle. Consequently, the rates, trends of erosions and deposition, and the development of fluvial islands are explained. GIS provides the-state-of-the-art tools in mapping, delineating the fluvial islands during different periods and in quantifying the changes that occurred to fluvial islands as well as creating the geographic databases for the Islands in Khartoum State. It was found that, the developments, shapes and sizes of the islands are directly affected by the construction of bridges, specifically in the Nile River from Tutti Island to Sabaloka gorge.

Keywords: fluvial islands, fluvial cycle, GIS and remote Sensing, Khartoum State, landsat, Sabaloka Gorge

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Authors: Tzu-Jung Tseng, Pei-Hsuen Han, Tsung-Hsueh Lu

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Background: Ensuring patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) access to hospitals that could perform percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in time is an important concern of healthcare managers. One commonly used the method to assess the coverage of population access to PCI hospital is the use GIS-estimated linear distance (crow's fly distance) between the district centroid and the nearest PCI hospital. If the distance is within a given distance (such as 20 km), the entire population of that district is considered to have appropriate access to PCI. The premise of using district centroid to estimate the coverage of population resident in that district is that the people live in the district are evenly distributed. In reality, the population density is not evenly distributed within the administrative district, especially in rural districts. Fortunately, the Taiwan government released basic statistical area (on average 450 population within the area) recently, which provide us an opportunity to estimate the coverage of population access to PCI services more accurate. Objectives: We aimed in this study to compare the population covered by a give PCI hospital according to traditional administrative district versus basic statistical area. We further examined if the differences between two geographic units used would be larger in a rural area than in urban area. Method: We selected two hospitals in Tainan City for this analysis. Hospital A is in urban area, hospital B is in rural area. The population in each traditional administrative district and basic statistical area are obtained from Taiwan National Geographic Information System, Ministry of Internal Affairs. Results: Estimated population live within 20 km of hospital A and B was 1,515,846 and 323,472 according to traditional administrative district and was 1,506,325 and 428,556 according to basic statistical area. Conclusion: In urban area, the estimated access population to PCI services was similar between two geographic units. However, in rural areas, the access population would be overestimated.

Keywords: accessibility, basic statistical area, modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)

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Authors: Alcino Panguana

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All Portuguese-speaking African countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region that has high infant mortality rates, being responsible for 49.6% of deaths in Portuguese-speaking African countries, Angola has levels of infant mortality among children, where 2017, 156 children who died before reaching 1 year of life in 1000 live births. Although there is an increase in studies that document trends and specific causes of infant mortality in each country, historical-comparative studies of infant mortality among these countries remain rare. Understanding the trend of this indicator is important for policymakers and planners in order to improve access to successful child survival operations. Lusophone Africa continues with high infant mortality rates in the order of 64 deaths per thousand births. Assuming heterogeneities that can characterize these countries, raise an analysis investigated indicator at the country level to understand the pattern and historical trend of infant mortality within Lusophone Africa from the year 2021. The result is to understand the levels and evolution of infant mortality in Portuguese-speaking African countries.

Keywords: child mortality, levels, trends, lusophone African countries

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Authors: Maria A. Castillo H., Andres R. Leandro, Jose F. Bienvenido B.

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During the last 20 years, the globalization of economies, population growth, and the increase in the consumption of fresh agricultural products have generated greater demand for ornamentals, flowers, fresh fruits, and vegetables, mainly from tropical areas. This market situation has demanded greater competitiveness and control over production, with more efficient protected agriculture technologies, which provide greater productivity and allow us to guarantee the quality and quantity that is required in a constant and sustainable way. Guatemala, located in the north of Central America, is one of the largest exporters of agricultural products in the region and exports fresh vegetables, flowers, fruits, ornamental plants, and foliage, most of which were grown in greenhouses. Although there are no official agricultural statistics on greenhouse production, several thesis works, and congress reports have presented consistent estimates. A wide range of protection structures and roofing materials are used, from the most basic and simple ones for rain control to highly technical and automated structures connected with remote sensors for monitoring and control of crops. With this breadth of technological models, it is necessary to analyze georeferenced data related to the cultivated area, to the different existing models, and to the covering materials, integrated with altitude, climate, and soil data. The georeferenced registration of the production units, the data collection with digital tools, the use of satellite images, and geographic information systems (GIS) provide reliable tools to elaborate more complete, agile, and dynamic information maps. This study details a methodology proposed for gathering georeferenced data of high protection structures (greenhouses) in Guatemala, structured in four phases: diagnosis of available information, the definition of the geographic frame, selection of satellite images, and integration with an information system geographic (GIS). It especially takes account of the actual lack of complete data in order to obtain a reliable decision-making system; this gap is solved through the proposed methodology. A summary of the results is presented in each phase, and finally, an evaluation with some improvements and tentative recommendations for further research is added. The main contribution of this study is to propose a methodology that allows to reduce the gap of georeferenced data in protected agriculture in this specific area where data is not generally available and to provide data of better quality, traceability, accuracy, and certainty for the strategic agricultural decision öaking, applicable to other crops, production models and similar/neighboring geographic areas.

Keywords: greenhouses, protected agriculture, GIS, Guatemala, satellite image, digital tools, precision agriculture

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Authors: Gertrude I Hewapathirana, Mohamed M. Moustafa, Michel G. Zaitouni

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The purposes of this research are: (a) to provide an epistemological and ontological understanding of the WLB theory, practice, and research to illuminate how the WLB evolved between 2000 to 2020 and (b) to analyze peer-reviewed research to identify the gaps, hotspots, underlying dynamics, theoretical and thematic trends, influential authors, research collaborations, geographic networks, and the multidisciplinary nature of the WLB theory to guide future researchers. The research used four-step bibliometric network analysis to explore five research questions. Using keywords such as WLB and associated variants, 1190 peer-reviewed articles were extracted from the Scopus database and transformed to a plain text format for filtering. The analysis was conducted using the R version 4.1 software (R Development Core Team, 2021) and several libraries such as bibliometrics, word cloud, and ggplot2. We used the VOSviewer software (van Eck & Waltman, 2019) for network visualization. The WLB theory has grown into a multifaceted, multidisciplinary field of research. There is a paucity of research between 2000 to 2005 and an exponential growth from 2006 to 2015. The rapid increase of WLB research in the USA, UK, and Australia reflects the increasing workplace stresses due to hyper competitive workplaces, inflexible work systems, and increasing diversity and the emergence of WLB support mechanisms, legal and constitutional mandates to enhance employee and family wellbeing at multilevel social systems. A severe knowledge gap exists due to inadequate publications disseminating the "core" WLB research. "Locally-centralized-globally-discrete" collaboration among researchers indicates a "North-South" divide between developed and developing nations. A shortage in WLB research in developing nations and a lack of research collaboration hinder a global understanding of the WLB as a universal phenomenon. Policymakers and practitioners can use the findings to initiate supporting policies, and innovative work systems. The boundary expansion of the WLB concepts, categories, relations, and properties would facilitate researchers/theoreticians to test a variety of new dimensions. This is the most comprehensive WLB landscape analysis that reveals emerging trends, concepts, networks, underlying dynamics, gaps, and growing theoretical and disciplinary boundaries. It portrays the WLB as a universal theory.

Keywords: work-life balance, co-citation networks; keyword co-occurrence network, bibliometric analysis

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Authors: Jesse D. Cano, Marlon J. Remedios

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Cuban tourism has developed so much in the last 30 years to the point of becoming one of the engines of the Cuban economy. With such a development, Cuban companies opting for e-tourism as a way to publicize their products and attract customers has also grown. Despite this fact, the majority of Cuban tourism-themed websites simply provide information on the different products and services they offer which results in many cases, in the user getting overwhelmed with the amount of information available which results in the user abandoning the search before he can find a product that fits his needs. Customization has been recognized as a critical factor for successful electronic tourism business and the use of recommender systems is the best approach to address the problem of personalization. This paper aims to outline a preliminary technique to obtain predictions about which products a particular user would give a better evaluation; these products would be those which the website would show in the first place. To achieve this, the theoretical elements of the Cuban tourism environment are discussed; recommendation systems and geographic information systems as tools for information representation are also discussed. Finally, for each structural component identified, we define a set of rules that allows obtaining an electronic tourism system that handles the personalization of the service provided effectively.

Keywords: geographic information system, technique, tourism products, recommendation

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Authors: Alazar G. Ejigu

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Cities have traditionally been designed for and by men. Despite positive changes in this regard, contemporary cities appear to offer limited options and experiences to women in their everyday life. There are differences regarding the quality of space. Distressed or disadvantaged areas often have less access to urban qualities, such as services, parks, and public places, than more privileged ones. The most attractive meeting-places are located centrally, whereas many suburban areas lack these elements. By focusing on young women living in multi-ethnic working-class suburban areas in Stockholm - a group generally ignored and disadvantaged; the study aims to examine various forms of inequality or equality in three selected neighborhoods. Spatial data was collected through walk-along with the young girls, inventory of the places, and geodata made available by Statistics Sweden (SCB). The combined data was analyzed with the help of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In line with Crenshaw - one of the forerunners of intersectional thinking – the project departs from the idea that if we address the needs of those who are disadvantaged and restructure urban space accordingly, then others will benefit too. Thus, working our way towards a more equal city.

Keywords: GIS, segregation, gender equality, urban planning

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Authors: Bright E. Owusu, Nittaya McNeil

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Rainfall is one of the most essential quantities in meteorology and hydrology. It has important impacts on people’s daily life and excess or inadequate of it could bring tremendous losses in economy and cause fatalities. Population increase around the globe tends to have a corresponding increase in settlement and industrialization. Some countries are affected by flood and drought occasionally due to climate change, which disrupt most of the daily activities. Knowledge of trends in spatial and temporal rainfall variability and their physical explanations would be beneficial in climate change assessment and to determine erosivity. This study describes the spatial-temporal variability of daily rainfall in Australia and their corresponding long-term trend during 1950-2013. The spatial patterns were investigated by using exploratory factor analysis and the long term trend in rainfall time series were determined by linear regression, Mann-Kendall rank statistics and the Sen’s slope test. The exploratory factor analysis explained most of the variations in the data and grouped Australia into eight distinct rainfall regions with different rainfall patterns. Significant increasing trends in annual rainfall were observed in the northern regions of Australia. However, the northeastern part was the wettest of all the eight rainfall regions.

Keywords: climate change, explanatory factor analysis, Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test, rainfall.

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Authors: Mohammed A. Alazawi, Shiguo Jiang, Steven F. Messner

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Research has long focused on two main spatial aspects of crime: spatial patterns and spatial processes. When analyzing these patterns and processes, a key issue has been to determine the proper spatial scale. In addition, it is important to consider the possibility that these patterns and processes might differ appreciably for different temporal scales and might vary across geographic units of analysis. We examine the spatial-temporal dependence of residential burglary. This dependence is tested at varying geographical scales and temporal aggregations. The analyses are based on recorded incidents of crime in Columbus, Ohio during the 1994-2002 period. We implement point pattern analysis on the crime points using Ripley’s K function. The results indicate that spatial point patterns of residential burglary reveal spatial scales of clustering relatively larger than the average size of census tracts of the study area. Also, spatial scale is independent of temporal scale. The results of our analyses concerning the geographic scale of spatial patterns and processes can inform the development of effective policies for crime control.

Keywords: inhomogeneous K function, residential burglary, spatial point pattern, spatial scale, temporal scale

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Authors: Dinesha Siriwardhane, Indralal De Silva, Sampath Amaratunge

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Objective of this study is to explore the recent trends, patterns and the structural changes in the labour migration from Sri Lanka to Middle East countries and to discuss the possible impacts of those changes on the remittance flow. Study uses secondary data published by Sri Lanka Bureau of Foreign Employment and Central Bank. Thematic analysis of the secondary data revealed that the migration for labour has increased rapidly during past decades. Parallel with that the gender and the skill composition of the migration flow has been changing. Similarly, the destinations for male migration have changed over the period. These show positive implications on the international remittance receipts to the country.

Keywords: migration, middle east, Sri Lanka, social sciences

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Authors: Chung Danbi, Linton Oliver, Whang Yoon-Jae

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Supermodularity, or complementarity, is a popular concept in economics which can characterize many objective functions such as utility, social welfare, and production functions. Further, supermodular dominance captures a preference for greater interdependence among inputs of those functions, and it can be applied to examine which input set would produce higher expected utility, social welfare, or production. Therefore, we propose and justify a consistent testing for a useful implication of supermodular dominance. We also conduct Monte Carlo simulations to explore the finite sample performance of our test, with critical values obtained from the recentered bootstrap method, with and without the selective recentering, and the subsampling method. Under various parameter settings, we confirmed that our test has reasonably good size and power performance. Finally, we apply our test to compare the geographic and distant knowledge spillover in terms of their effects on social welfare using the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) patent data. We expect localized citing to supermodularly dominate distant citing if the geographic knowledge spillover engenders greater social welfare than distant knowledge spillover. Taking subgroups based on firm and patent characteristics, we found that there is industry-wise and patent subclass-wise difference in the pattern of supermodular dominance between localized and distant citing. We also compare the results from analyzing different time periods to see if the development of Internet and communication technology has changed the pattern of the dominance. In addition, to appropriately deal with the sparse nature of the data, we apply high-dimensional methods to efficiently select relevant data.

Keywords: supermodularity, supermodular dominance, stochastic dominance, Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrap, subsampling

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Authors: Fabio Salvador Aparecido Santos, Spencer Chainey, Richard Wortley

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Urban morphology can be understood as the study of the physical form of cities through its elements. Crime, at this turn, can be oversimplified as an action that breaks the rules established in a certain society. This study involves these two subjects through the relationship between elements of urban morphology and density of crime occurrences. We consider that there is a research gap about the influence of urban features on crime occurrences using statistic methods and mapping techniques on Geographic Information Systems. The investigation will comprehend three main phases. The first phase involves examining how theoretical principles associated with urban morphology can be viewed in terms of their influence on crime patterns. The second phase involves the development of tools to be used to model elements of urban morphology, and measure the relationship between these urban morphological elements and patterns of crime. The third phase involves determining the extent to which elements of the urban environment can contribute to crime reduction. Understanding the relationship between urban morphology and crime patterns in a Latin American context will help highlight the influence urban planning has on the crime problems that emerge in these settings, and how effectively urban planning can contribute to reducing crime.

Keywords: Agent-based Modelling, Environmental Criminology, Geographic Information System, Urban Morphology

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Authors: Apkar Salatian

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To relieve the burden of reasoning on a point to point basis, in many domains there is a need to reduce large and noisy data sets into trends for qualitative reasoning. In this paper we propose and describe a new architectural design pattern called REDUCER for reducing large and noisy data sets that can be tailored for particular situations. REDUCER consists of 2 consecutive processes: Filter which takes the original data and removes outliers, inconsistencies or noise; and Compression which takes the filtered data and derives trends in the data. In this seminal article, we also show how REDUCER has successfully been applied to 3 different case studies.

Keywords: design pattern, filtering, compression, architectural design

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Authors: Lakmali Anthony, Madeline Gillies

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Background: Incisional and ventral hernias are highly prevalent, with primary ventral hernias occurring in approximately 20% of adults and incisional hernias developing in up to 30% of midline abdominal incisions. Recent data from the United States have shown an increasing incidence of elective incisional and ventral hernia repair (IVHR) and emergency repair of complicated hernias. This study examines Australian population trends in IVHR over a two-decade study period. Methods: This retrospective study was performed using procedure data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics captured between 2000 and 2021 to calculate incidence rates per 100,000 population by age and sex for selected subcategories of IVHR operations. Trends over time were evaluated using simple linear regression. Results: There were 809,308 IVHR operations performed in Australia during the study period. The cumulative incidence adjusted for the population was 182 per 100,000; this increased by 9.578 per year during the study period (95% CI = 8.431- 10.726, p<.001). IVHR for primary umbilical hernias experienced the most significant increase in population-adjusted incidence, 1.177 per year. (95% CI = 0.654- 1.701, p<.001). Emergency IVHR for incarcerated, obstructed, and strangulated hernias increased by 0.576 per year (95% CI = 0.510 -0.642, p<.001). Only 20.2% of IVHR procedures were performed as day surgery. Conclusions: Australia has seen a significant increase in IVHR operations performed in the last 20 years, particularly those for primary ventral hernias. IVHR for hernias complicated by incarceration, obstruction, and strangulation also increased significantly. The proportion of IVHR operations performed as day surgery is well below the target set by the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons. With the increasing incidence of IVHR operations and an increasing proportion of these being emergent, elective IVHR should be performed as day surgery when it is safe.

Keywords: ventral, incisional, hernia, trends

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Authors: Ramona Zharfpeykan

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This study analyses the trend and nature of sustainability key performance indicators (KPIs) reporting in firms globally. It presents both trend and panel data of sustainability reports of 798 firms in the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) database from 2010 to 2014. The results show some fluctuations in the frequency of sustainability KPI reporting globally across the time while the major focus of reports in firms stayed almost the same. It made us further analyse this trend and found that there are some indicators, such as 'environmental protect expenses' and 'number of grievances', that was barely reported over this period along with some highly popular ones such as 'direct economic value' and 'employment rate'. We could not find any statistical correlation between the KPI reporting percentage and the firms’ industries generally and neither if they belong to environmentally sensitive industries.

Keywords: global reporting initiatives, sustainability reporting, sustainability KPI, trends of sustainability reporting

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Authors: Masoud Irannezhad, Sirpa Rasmus, Saghar Ahmadian, Deliang Chen, Bjorn Klove

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Variability and changes in thermal conditions play a crucial role in functioning of human society, particularly over cold climate regions like Finland. Accordingly, the frost-free season (FFS) parameters in terms of start (FFSS), end (FFSE) and length (FFSL) have substantial effects not only on natural environment (e.g. flora and fauna), but also on human requirements (e.g. agriculture, forestry and energy generation). Applying the 0°C threshold of minimum temperature (Tmin), the FFS was defined as the period between the last spring frost as FFSS and the first fall frost as FFSE. For this study, gridded (10 x 10 km2) daily minimum temperature datasets throughout Finland during 1961-2011 was used to investigate recent spatio-temporal variations and trends in frost-free season (FFS) parameters and their relationships with the well-known large-scale climate teleconnections (CTs). The FFS in Finland naturally increases from north (~60 days) to south (~190 days), in association with earlier FFSS (~24 April) and later FFSE (~30 October). Statistically significant (p<0.05) trends in FFSL were all positive (increasing) ranged between 0 and 13.5 (days/decade) and mainly observed in the east, upper west, centre and upper north of Finland. Such lengthening trends in FFS were attributable to both earlier FFSS and later FFSE mostly over central and upper northern Finland, while only to later FFSE in eastern and upper western parts. Variations in both FFSL and FFSS were significantly associated with the Polar (POL) pattern over northern Finland, while with the East Atlantic (EA) pattern over eastern and upper western areas. However, the POL and Scandinavia (SCA) patterns were most influential CTs for FFSE variability over northern Finland.

Keywords: climate teleconnections, Finland, frost-free season, trend analysis

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Authors: Rebecca Richards Steed, James Van Derslice, Ken Smith, Richard Medina, Amanda Bakian

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Elucidating gene-environment interactions for heritable disease outcomes is an emerging area of disease research, with genetic studies informing hypotheses for environment and gene interactions underlying some of the most confounding diseases of our time, like autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Geography has thus far played a key role in identifying environmental factors contributing to disease, but its use can be broadened to include genetic and environmental factors that have a synergistic effect on disease. Through the use of family pedigrees and disease outcomes with life-course residential histories, space-time clustering of generations at critical developmental windows can provide further understanding of (1) environmental factors that contribute to disease patterns in families, (2) susceptible critical windows of development most impacted by environment, (3) and that are most likely to lead to an ASD diagnosis. This paper introduces a retrospective case-control study that utilizes pedigree data, health data, and residential life-course location points to find space-time clustering of ancestors with a grandchild/child with a clinical diagnosis of ASD. Finding space-time clusters of ancestors at critical developmental windows serves as a proxy for shared environmental exposures. The authors refer to geographic life-course exposures as geographic legacies. Identifying space-time clusters of ancestors creates a bridge for researching exposures of past generations that may impact modern-day progeny health. Results from the space-time cluster analysis show multiple clusters for the maternal and paternal pedigrees. The paternal grandparent pedigree resulted in the most space-time clustering for birth and childhood developmental windows. No statistically significant clustering was found for adolescent years. These results will be further studied to identify the specific share of space-time environmental exposures. In conclusion, this study has found significant space-time clusters of parents, and grandparents for both maternal and paternal lineage. These results will be used to identify what environmental exposures have been shared with family members at critical developmental windows of time, and additional analysis will be applied.

Keywords: family pedigree, environmental exposure, geographic legacy, medical geography, transgenerational inheritance

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Authors: Prozorkevitch D., Mishurov A., Sokolov K., Karsakov L., Pestrikova L.

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The current body of knowledge about the marine environment and the dynamics of marine ecosystems includes a huge amount of heterogeneous data collected over decades. It generally includes a wide range of hydrological, biological and fishery data. Marine researchers collect these data and analyze how and why the ecosystem changes from past to present. Based on these historical records and linkages between the processes it is possible to predict future changes. Multivariate analysis of trends and their interconnection in the marine ecosystem may be used as an instrument for predicting further ecosystem evolution. A wide range of information about the components of the marine ecosystem for more than 50 years needs to be used to investigate how these arrays can help to predict the future.

Keywords: barents sea ecosystem, abiotic, biotic, data sets, trends, prediction

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Authors: Nureni Amoo, Sunday Aroge, Oluranti Akintola, Hakeem Olujide, Ibrahim Alabi

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This study investigated the optimum landfill site in Osogbo so as to identify suitable solid waste dumpsite for proper waste management in the capital city. Despite an increase in alternative techniques for disposing of waste, landfilling remains the primary means of waste disposal. These changes in attitudes in many parts of the world have been supported by changes in laws and policies regarding the environment and waste disposal. Selecting the most suitable site for landfill can avoid any ecological and socio-economic effects. The increase in industrial and economic development, along with the increase of population growth in Osogbo town, generates a tremendous amount of solid waste within the region. Factors such as the scarcity of land, the lifespan of the landfill, and environmental considerations warrant that the scientific and fundamental studies are carried out in determining the suitability of a landfill site. The analysis of spatial data and consideration of regulations and accepted criteria are part of the important elements in the site selection. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision-making method using geographic information system (GIS) with the integration of the fuzzy logic multi-criteria decision making (FMCDM) technique for landfill suitability site evaluation. By using the fuzzy logic method (classification of suitable areas in the range of 0 to 1 scale), the superposing of the information layers related to drainage, soil, land use/land cover, slope, land use, and geology maps were performed in the study. Based on the result obtained in this study, five (5) potential sites are suitable for the construction of a landfill are proposed, two of which belong to the most suitable zone, and the existing waste disposal site belonged to the unsuitable zone.

Keywords: fuzzy logic multi-criteria decision making, geographic information system, landfill, suitable site, waste disposal

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Authors: Avichal Malhotra, Jerome Frisch, Christoph van Treeck

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The utilization of semantic, cadastral and topological data from geographic information systems (GIS) has exponentially increased for building and urban-scale energy performance simulations. Urban planners, simulation scientists, and researchers use virtual 3D city models for energy analysis, algorithms and simulation tools. For dynamic energy simulations at city and district level, this paper provides an overview of the available GIS data models and their levels of detail. Adhering to different norms and standards, these models also intend to describe building and construction industry data. For further investigations, CityGML data models are considered for simulations. Though geographical information modelling has considerably many different implementations, extensions of virtual city data can also be made for domain specific applications. Highlighting the use of the extended CityGML models for energy researches, a brief introduction to the Energy Application Domain Extension (ADE) along with its significance is made. Consequently, addressing specific input simulation data, a workflow using Modelica underlining the usage of GIS information and the quantification of its significance over annual heating energy demand is presented in this paper.

Keywords: CityGML, EnergyADE, energy performance simulation, GIS

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Authors: Ming-Dong Wang, Abigail F. Ruby, Michelle E. Ross

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Methylphenidate is a first-line treatment drug for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), a common mental health disorder in children and adolescents. Over the last several decades, the rate of children and adolescents using ADHD medication has been increasing in many countries. A recent study found that the prevalence of ADHD medication use among children aged 3-18 years increased in 13 different world regions between 2001 and 2015, where the absolute increase ranged from 0.02 to 0.26% per year. The goal of this study was to examine the use of methylphenidate in Canadian children and its associated adverse reactions. Methylphenidate use information among young Canadians aged 0-14 years was extracted from IQVIA data on prescriptions dispensed by pharmacies between April 2014 and June 2020. The adverse reaction information associated with methylphenidate use was extracted from the Canada Vigilance database for the same time period. Methylphenidate use trends were analyzed based on sex, age group (0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-14 years), and geographical location (province). The common classes of adverse reactions associated with methylphenidate use were sorted, and the relative risks associated with methylphenidate use as compared with two second-line amphetamine medications for ADHD were estimated. This study revealed that among Canadians aged 0-14 years, every 100 people used about 25 prescriptions (or 23,000 mg) of methylphenidate per year during the study period, and the use increased with time. Boys used almost three times more methylphenidate than girls. The amount of drug used was inversely associated with age: Canadians aged 10-14 years used nearly three times as many drugs compared to those aged 5-9 years. Seasonal methylphenidate use patterns were apparent among young Canadians, but the seasonal trends differed among the three age groups. Methylphenidate use varied from region to region, and the highest methylphenidate use was observed in Quebec, where the use of methylphenidate was at least double that of any other province. During the study period, Health Canada received 304 adverse reaction reports associated with the use of methylphenidate for Canadians aged 0-14 years. The number of adverse reaction reports received for boys was 3.5 times higher than that for girls. The three most common adverse reaction classes were psychiatric disorders, nervous system disorders and injury, poisoning procedural complications. The number one commonly reported adverse reaction for boys was aggression (11.2%), while for girls, it was a tremor (9.6%). The safety profile in terms of adverse reaction classes associated with methylphenidate use was similar to that of the selected control products. Methylphenidate is a commonly used pharmaceutical product in young Canadians, particularly in the province of Quebec. Boys used approximately three times more of this product as compared to girls. Future investigation is needed to determine what factors are associated with the observed geographic variations in Canada.

Keywords: adverse reaction risk, methylphenidate, prescription trend, use variation

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Authors: Shereif. H. Mahmoud

Abstract:

Egypt has limited water resources, and it will be under water stress by the year 2030. Therefore, Egypt should consider natural and non-conventional water resources to overcome such a problem. Rain harvesting is one solution. This Paper presents a geographic information system (GIS) methodology - based on decision support system (DSS) that uses remote sensing data, filed survey, and GIS to identify potential RWH areas. The input into the DSS includes a map of rainfall surplus, slope, potential runoff coefficient (PRC), land cover/use, soil texture. In addition, the outputs are map showing potential sites for RWH. Identifying suitable RWH sites implemented in the ArcGIS model environment using the model builder of ArcGIS 10.1. Based on Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) analysis taking into account five layers, the spatial extents of RWH suitability areas identified using Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE). The suitability model generated a suitability map for RWH with four suitability classes, i.e. Excellent, Moderate, Poor, and unsuitable. The spatial distribution of the suitability map showed that the excellent suitable areas for RWH concentrated in the northern part of Egypt. According to their averages, 3.24% of the total area have excellent and good suitability for RWH, while 45.04 % and 51.48 % of the total area are moderate and unsuitable suitability, respectively. The majority of the areas with excellent suitability have slopes between 2 and 8% and with an intensively cultivated area. The major soil type in the excellent suitable area is loam and the rainfall range from 100 up to 200 mm. Validation of the used technique depends on comparing existing RWH structures locations with the generated suitability map using proximity analysis tool of ArcGIS 10.1. The result shows that most of exiting RWH structures categorized as successful.

Keywords: rainwater harvesting (RWH), geographic information system (GIS), analytical hierarchy process (AHP), multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), decision support system (DSS)

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Vinay C. Doranalu, Amba Shetty

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In recent days due to climate change, there is a large variation in spatial distribution of daily rainfall within a small region. Rainfall is one of the main end climatic variables which affect spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. The real task postured by the change in climate is identification, estimation and understanding the uncertainty of rainfall. This study intended to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of daily precipitation using high resolution (0.25º x 0.25º) gridded data of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). For the study, 38 grid points were selected in the study area and analyzed for daily precipitation time series (113 years) over the period 1901-2013. Grid points were divided into two zones based on the elevation and situated location of grid points: Low Land (exposed to sea and low elevated area/ coastal region) and High Land (Interior from sea and high elevated area/western Ghats). Time series were applied to examine the spatial analysis and temporal trends in each grid points by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator to perceive the nature of trend and magnitude of slope in trend of rainfall. Pettit-Mann-Whitney test is applied to detect the most probable change point in trends of the time period. Results have revealed remarkable monotonic trend in each grid for daily precipitation of the time series. In general, by the regional cluster analysis found that increasing precipitation trend in shoreline region and decreasing trend in Western Ghats from recent years. Spatial distribution of rainfall can be partly explained by heterogeneity in temporal trends of rainfall by change point analysis. The Mann-Kendall test shows significant variation as weaker rainfall towards the rainfall distribution over eastern parts of the Western Ghats region of Karnataka.

Keywords: change point analysis, coastal region India, gridded rainfall data, non-parametric

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Saad M. Algharib

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The major concern of planners when placing fire stations is finding their optimal locations such that the fire companies can reach fire locations within reasonable response time or distance. Planners are also concerned with the numbers of fire stations that are needed to cover all service areas and the fires, as demands, with standard response time or distance. One of the tools for such analysis is location-allocation models. Location-allocation models enable planners to determine the optimal locations of facilities in an area in order to serve regional demands in the most efficient way. The purpose of this study is to examine the geographic distribution of the existing fire stations in Kuwait City. This study utilized location-allocation models within the Geographic Information System (GIS) environment and a number of statistical functions to assess the current locations of fire stations in Kuwait City. Further, this study investigated how well all service areas are covered and how many and where additional fire stations are needed. Four different location-allocation models were compared to find which models cover more demands than the others, given the same number of fire stations. This study tests many ways to combine variables instead of using one variable at a time when applying these models in order to create a new measurement that influences the optimal locations for locating fire stations. This study also tests how location-allocation models are sensitive to different levels of spatial dependency. The results indicate that there are some districts in Kuwait City that are not covered by the existing fire stations. These uncovered districts are clustered together. This study also identifies where to locate the new fire stations. This study provides users of these models a new variable that can assist them to select the best locations for fire stations. The results include information about how the location-allocation models behave in response to different levels of spatial dependency of demands. The results show that these models perform better with clustered demands. From the additional analysis carried out in this study, it can be concluded that these models applied differently at different spatial patterns.

Keywords: geographic information science, GIS, location-allocation models, geography

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Ellen Bryant, Virginia Behmer, Rebecca Garbed, Jeanette O’Quin, Dana Howard

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As it currently stands, veterinary care in the United States is not accessible to everyone, and veterinarians regularly face cases of clients who are unable to provide necessary care to their animals regardless of the client’s desire to do so. There is currently limited research into how veterinarians address these issues of access to care. It is apparent that veterinarians regularly utilize funding or offer discounted services to treat cases that otherwise would go without care. With need currently exceeding the amount of funds and services available, veterinarians are tasked with deciding which cases are most deserving of assistance. This mixed methods study distributed a survey to companion animal veterinarians practicing in the United States to identify current trends in how these professionals apply principles of distributive justice in the scope of veterinary medicine. Ethical frameworks identified in human bioethics research into distributive justice were presented, along with demographic questions, to identify relationships between veterinarian priorities and the scope of their practice/respective roles/geographic region. By surveying veterinarians across a wide range of specialties, practice types, and clientele this study was able to assess how priorities and opinions shift based on external factors as well as among the respondents themselves. Participants were asked not only to choose how to distribute aid between different clients and case scenarios, but also asked directly which is the best way to distribute aid when need exceeds the resources available.

Keywords: access to veterinary care, bioethics, decision-making, distributive justice, subsidized care

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Tharsinithevy Kirupananthan, Thivahary Geretharan

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Since creation of agricultural enterprises going to reflect the micro and macro level development of Sri Lanka, it is vey important to study the entrepreneurial trends of Agricultural Undergraduates. Likert scale scoring method was used to assess the responses of involvement, Role model effect, aware of demands, confidence and willingness. 37.8% were strongly agreed to do full time business. The average score for to do agriculture businesses were between agree and strongly agree. The average scores for role model effects were less than agree. Average score for aware of needs of society was less than agree. 75.7% of them were able to identify the demands of the society. The demands identified were human capital, self sufficient domestic production, safe and nutritional foods. The confidence of having enough skills score was less than agree. 64.1% of them were owned special skills to carry out entrepreneurial activities. Such skills were possession of different human capitals management skills. The willingness responses scores were more than agree. 61.5% of them were discussed their business plan. Their dream plans were development of new food products, Quality planting materials, harmless method of cultivation and floricultural industry. Those were supported by government policies and other related organizations.

Keywords: agricultural undergraduates, entrepreneurial trends, likert scale Sri Lanka

Procedia PDF Downloads 367