Search results for: flood risk map

Authors: Alfred Kamate Siviri, Angelus Mafikiri Tsongo, Jean Robert Kala Kamdjoug

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Digitalization and information systems well organized have been selected as relevant measures to mitigate operational risks within organizations. Unfortunately, information system comes with new threats that can cause severe damage and quick organization lockout. This study aims to measure perceived information system risks and their effects on operational risks within the microfinance institution in D.R. Congo. Also, the factors influencing the operational risk are identified, and the link between operational risk with other risks and performance is to be assessed. The study proposes a research model drawn on the combination of Resources-Based-View, dynamic capabilities, the agency theory, the Information System Security Model, and social theories of risk. Therefore, we suggest adopting a mixed methods research with the sole aim of increasing the literature that already exists on perceived operational risk assessment and its link with other risk and performance, a focus on IT risk.

Keywords: Democratic Republic Congo, information system risk, microfinance performance, operational risk

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Authors: Ida Ngurah

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Indonesia is one of the most prone disaster countries, which has earthquake, tsunami or high wave, flood and landslide as well as volcano eruption and drought. Disaster risk reduction has been developing extensively and comprehensively, particularly after tsunami hit in 2004. Yet, saving people live including children and youth from disaster risk is still far from succeed. Poor management of environment, poor development of policy and high level of corruption has become challenges for Indonesia to save its people from disaster impact. Indonesia is struggling to ensure its future best investment, children and youth to have better protection when disaster strike in school hours and have basic knowledge on disaster risk reduction. The program of safe school is being initiated and developed by Plan Indonesia since 2010, yet this effort still needs to be elaborated. This paper is reviewing sporadic safe school programs that have been implemented or currently being implemented Plan Indonesia in few areas of Indonesia, including both rural and urban setting. Methods used are in-depth interview with dedicated person for the program from Plan Indonesia and its implementing patners and analysis of project documents. The review includes program’s goal and objectives, implementation activity, result and achievement as well as its monitoring and evaluation scheme. Moreover, paper will be showing challenges, lesson learned and best practices of the program. Eventually, paper will come up with recommendation for strategy for better implementation of safe school program in Indonesia.

Keywords: disaster impact, safe school, programs, children, youth

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Authors: Alexander Kelíšek, Denisa Janasová, Veronika Mitašová

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Weak signals using is often associated with early warning. It is possible to find a link between early warning, respectively early problems detection and risk management. The idea of early warning is very important in the context of crisis management because of the risk prevention possibility. Weak signals are likened to risk symptoms. Nowadays, their usefulness as a tool of proactive problems solving is emphasized. Based on it, it is possible to use weak signals not only in strategic planning, project management, or early warning system, but also as a subsidiary element in risk management. The main question is how to effectively integrate weak signals into risk management. The main aim of the paper is to point out the possibilities of weak signals using in small and medium enterprises risk management.

Keywords: early warning system, weak signals, risk management, small and medium enterprises (SMEs)

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Authors: Abhisek Chakrabarty, Subhraprakash Mandal

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Flash flood is one of the catastrophic natural hazards in the mountainous region of India. The recent flood in the Mandakini River in Kedarnath (14-17th June, 2013) is a classic example of flash floods that devastated Uttarakhand by killing thousands of people.The disaster was an integrated effect of high intensityrainfall, sudden breach of Chorabari Lake and very steep topography. Every year in Himalayan Region flash flood occur due to intense rainfall over a short period of time, cloud burst, glacial lake outburst and collapse of artificial check dam that cause high flow of river water. In Sikkim-Derjeeling Himalaya one of the probable flash flood occurrence zone is Teesta Watershed. The Teesta River is a right tributary of the Brahmaputra with draining mountain area of approximately 8600 Sq. km. It originates in the Pauhunri massif (7127 m). The total length of the mountain section of the river amounts to 182 km. The Teesta is characterized by a complex hydrological regime. The river is fed not only by precipitation, but also by melting glaciers and snow as well as groundwater. The present study describes an attempt to model surface runoff in upper Teesta basin, which is directly related to catastrophic flood events, by creating a system based on GIS technology. The main object was to construct a direct unit hydrograph for an excess rainfall by estimating the stream flow response at the outlet of a watershed. Specifically, the methodology was based on the creation of a spatial database in GIS environment and on data editing. Moreover, rainfall time-series data collected from Indian Meteorological Department and they were processed in order to calculate flow time and the runoff volume. Apart from the meteorological data, background data such as topography, drainage network, land cover and geological data were also collected. Clipping the watershed from the entire area and the streamline generation for Teesta watershed were done and cross-sectional profiles plotted across the river at various locations from Aster DEM data using the ERDAS IMAGINE 9.0 and Arc GIS 10.0 software. The analysis of different hydraulic model to detect flash flood probability ware done using HEC-RAS, Flow-2D, HEC-HMS Software, which were of great importance in order to achieve the final result. With an input rainfall intensity above 400 mm per day for three days the flood runoff simulation models shows outbursts of lakes and check dam individually or in combination with run-off causing severe damage to the downstream settlements. Model output shows that 313 Sq. km area were found to be most vulnerable to flash flood includes Melli, Jourthang, Chungthang, and Lachung and 655sq. km. as moderately vulnerable includes Rangpo,Yathang, Dambung,Bardang, Singtam, Teesta Bazarand Thangu Valley. The model was validated by inserting the rain fall data of a flood event took place in August 1968, and 78% of the actual area flooded reflected in the output of the model. Lastly preventive and curative measures were suggested to reduce the losses by probable flash flood event.

Keywords: flash flood, GIS, runoff, simulation model, Teesta river basin

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis

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Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Panagiotis Vouros, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Loannis Nikolaou

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On November 15th, 2017, a catastrophic flash flood devastated the city of Mandra in Central Greece, resulting in 24 fatalities and extensive damages to the built environment and infrastructure. It was Greece's deadliest and most destructive flood event for the past 40 years. In this paper, we examine the consequences of this event too small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in Mandra during the flood event, which were affected by the floodwaters to varying extents. In this context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with business owners-managers of 45 SMEs located in flood inundated areas and are still active nowadays, based on an interview guide that spanned 27 topics. The topics pertained to the disaster experience of the business and business owners-managers, knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and extreme weather, aspects of disaster preparedness and related assistance needs. Our findings reveal that the vast majority of the affected businesses experienced heavy damages in equipment and infrastructure or total destruction, which resulted in business interruption from several weeks up to several months. Assistance from relatives or friends helped for the damage repairs and business recovery, while state compensations were deemed insufficient compared to the extent of the damages. Most interviewees pinpoint flooding as one of the most critical risks, and many connect it with the climate crisis. However, they are either not willing or unable to apply property-level prevention measures in their businesses due to cost considerations or complex and cumbersome bureaucratic processes. In all cases, the business owners are fully aware of the flood hazard implications, and since the recovery from the event, they have engaged in basic mitigation measures and contingency plans in case of future flood events. Such plans include insurance contracts whenever possible (as the vast majority of the affected SMEs were uninsured at the time of the 2017 event) as well as simple relocations of critical equipment within their property. The study offers fruitful insights on latent drivers and barriers of SMEs' resilience capacity to flash flooding. In this respect, findings such as ours, highlighting tensions that underpin behavioral responses and experiences, can feed into a) bottom-up approaches for devising actionable and practical guidelines, manuals and/or standards on business preparedness to flooding, and, ultimately, b) policy-making for an enabling environment towards a flood-resilient SME sector.

Keywords: flash flood, small and medium-sized enterprises, organizational resilience capacity, disaster preparedness, qualitative study

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Authors: Ali Razmi, Saeed Golian

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Climate change is known to have the potential to impact adversely hydrologic patterns for variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sea level rise. Long-term average of these climate variables could possibly change over time due to climate change impacts. In this study, trend analysis was performed on rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and water level data of a coastal area in Manhattan, New York City, Central Park and Battery Park stations to investigate if there is a significant change in the data mean. Partial Man-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Frequency analysis was then performed on data using common probability distribution functions such as Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), normal, log-normal and log-Pearson. Goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to determine the most appropriate distributions. In flood frequency analysis, rainfall and water level data are often separately investigated. However, in determining flood zones, simultaneous consideration of rainfall and water level in frequency analysis could have considerable effect on floodplain delineation (flood extent and depth). The present study aims to perform flood frequency analysis considering joint probability distribution for rainfall and storm surge. First, correlation between the considered variables was investigated. Joint probability distribution of extreme water level and temperature was also investigated to examine how global warming could affect sea level flooding impacts. Copula functions were fitted to data and joint probability of water level with rainfall and temperature for different recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 600 and 1000 was determined and compared with the severity of individual events. Results for trend analysis showed increase in long-term average of data that could be attributed to climate change impacts. GEV distribution was found as the most appropriate function to be fitted to the extreme climate variables. The results for joint probability distribution analysis confirmed the necessity for incorporation of both rainfall and water level data in flood frequency analysis.

Keywords: climate change, climate variables, copula, joint probability

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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Authors: Seyeon Lee, Suyeon Lee, Julia Rogers

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This research investigates and records post-flood and typhoon conditions of low income housing in the Thua Thien Hue Province, Vietnam; area prone to extreme flooding in Central Vietnam. The cost of rebuilding houses after flood and typhoon has been always a burden for low income households. These costs often lead to the elimination of essential construction practices for disaster resistance. Despite relief efforts from international non-profit organizations and Vietnam government, the impacts of flood and typhoon damages to residential construction has been reoccurring to the same neighborhood annually. Notwithstanding its importance, this topic has not been systematically investigated. The study is limited to assistance provided to low income households documenting existing conditions of low income homes impacted by post flood and typhoon conditions in the Thua Thien Hue Province. The research identifies leading causes of the building failure from the natural disasters. Relief efforts and progress made since the last typhoon is documented. The quality of construction and repairs are assessed based on Home Builders Guide to Coastal Construction by Federal Emergency Management Agency. Focus group discussions and individual interviews with local residents from four different communities were conducted to get incites on repair effort by the non-profit organizations and Vietnam government, and their needs post flood and typhoon. The findings from the field study informed that many of the local people are now aware of the importance of improving housing conditions as one of the key coping strategies to withstand flood and typhoon events as it makes housing and community more resilient to future events. While there has been a remarkable improvement of housing and infrastructure with the support from the local government as well as the non-profit organizations, many households in the study areas are found to still live in weak and fragile housing conditions without gaining access to the aid to repair and strengthen the houses. Given that the major immediate recovery action taken by the local people tends to focus on repairing damaged houses, and on this ground, low-income households spend a considerable amount of their income on housing repair, providing proper and applicable construction practices will not only improve the housing condition, but also contribute to reducing poverty in Vietnam.

Keywords: disaster coping mechanism, housing welfare, low-income housing, recovery reduction

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Authors: Jiri Barta

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This paper deals with a simulation programs and technologies using in the educational process for members of the crisis management. Risk analysis, simulation, preparation and planning are among the main activities of workers of crisis management. Made correctly simulation of emergency defines the extent of the danger. On this basis, it is possible to effectively prepare and plan measures to minimize damage. The paper is focused on simulation programs that are trained at the University of Defence. Implementation of the outputs from simulation programs in decision-making processes of crisis staffs is one of the main tasks of the research project.

Keywords: crisis management, continuity, critical infrastructure, dangerous substance, education, flood, simulation programs

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Authors: Gerhard Grebe, Johan Marx

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The aim of the study is to assess the state of operational risk management and the adoption of an appropriate risk culture in Ghanaian banks. The Bank of Ghana (BoG) joined the Basel Consultative Group (BCG) of the Basel Committee on Bank Supervision (BCBS) in 2021 and is proceeding with the implementation of the Basel III international regulatory framework for banks. The BoG’s Directive about risk management encourages, inter alia, the creation of an appropriate risk culture by Ghanaian banks. However, it is not evident how the risk management staff of Ghanaian banks experience the risk culture and the implementation of operational risk management in the banks where they are employed. Ghana is a developing economy, and it is addressing challenges with its organisational culture. According to Transparency International, successive Ghanaian governments claim to be fighting corruption, but little success has been achieved so far. This points to a possible lack of accountability, transparency, and integrity in the environment in which Ghanaian banks operate and which could influence their risk culture negatively. Purposive sampling was used for the survey, and the questionnaire was completed byGhanaian bank personnel who specializesin operational risk management, risk governance, and compliance, bank supervision, risk analyses, as well as the implementation of the operational risk management requirements of the Basel regulatory frameworks. The respondents indicated that they are fostering a risk culture and implementing monitoring and reporting procedures; the three lines of defence (3LOD); compliance; internal auditing; disclosure of operational risk information; and receiving guidance from the bank supervisor in an attempt to improve their operational risk management practices. However, the respondents reported the following challenges with staff members who are not inside the risk management departments(in order of priority), namelydemonstrating a risk culture, training and development; communication; reporting and disclosure; roles and responsibilities; performance appraisal; and technological and environmental barriers. Recommendations to address these challenges are provided

Keywords: ghana, operational risk, risk culture, risk management

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Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour

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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.

Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management

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Authors: Dianne Williams

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This study examined the peer/individual domain of the Risk Factor Prevention Paradigm (RFPP) to assess the risk and protective factors that impact criminal gang involvement among at-risk males residing in a juvenile home in Trinidad and Tobago. The RFPP allows for the identification of both risk and protective factors in a single, holistic framework to identify the relationship between risk factors, protective factors, and criminal gang involvement among at-risk male adolescents. Findings showed that having anti-social peers was the most significant risk factor associated with criminal gang involvement, while the most significant protective factor was having a positive social attitude. Moreover, while 65% of the boys reported never having been in a gang, 70% reported having hit, struck or used a weapon against someone, while 52% reported being involved in other violent incidents on more than two occasions. This suggests that while involvement with criminal gangs may not be common among this population, predisposing behavioral patterns are present. Results are expected to assist in the development of targeted strategies to reduce the attractiveness of gang membership.

Keywords: risk factor prevention paradigm, risk factors, protective factors, peer/individual domain, gang involvement, at-risk youth, trinidad and tobago, juvenile home

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Authors: Ulas Cinar, Omer Faruk Ugurlu, Selcuk Cebi

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Occupational safety risk management is the most important element of a safe working environment. Effective risk management can only be possible with accurate analysis and evaluations. Scoring-based risk assessment methods offer considerable ease of application as they convert linguistic expressions into numerical results. It can also be easily adapted to any field. Contrary to all these advantages, important problems in scoring-based methods are frequently discussed. Effective measurability is one of the most critical problems. Existing methods allow experts to choose a score equivalent to each parameter. Therefore, experts prefer the score of the most likely outcome for risk. However, all other possible consequences are neglected. Assessments of the existing methods express the most probable level of risk, not the real risk of the enterprises. In this study, it is aimed to develop a method that will present a more comprehensive evaluation compared to the existing methods by evaluating the probability and severity scores, all sub-parameters, and potential results, and a new scoring-based method is proposed in the literature.

Keywords: occupational health and safety, risk assessment, scoring based risk assessment method, underground mining, weighted risk scores

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Authors: Lenka Jesonkova, Frantisek Bozek

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Trihalogenmethanes (THMs) are disinfection byproducts with non-carcinogenic and genotoxic effects. The contamination of 6 sites close to the water treatment plant has been monitored in second largest city of the Czech Republic. Health risk assessment including both non-carcinogenic and genotoxic risk for long term exposition was realized using the critical concentrations. Concentrations of trihalogenmethanes met national standards in all samples. Risk assessment proved that health risks from trihalogenmethanes are acceptable on each site.

Keywords: drinking water, health risk assessment, trihalogenmethanes, water pollution

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Authors: Yogesh Kumar Singh, T. S. Murugesh Prabhu, Upasana Dutta, Girishchandra Yendargaye, Rahul Yadav, Rohini Gopinath Kale, Binay Kumar, Manoj Khare

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The Indian subcontinent is severely affected by floods that cause intense irreversible devastation to crops and livelihoods. With increased incidences of floods and their related catastrophes, an Early Warning System for Flood Prediction and an efficient Flood Management System for the river basins of India is a must. Accurately modeled hydrological conditions and a web-based early warning system may significantly reduce economic losses incurred due to floods and enable end users to issue advisories with better lead time. This study describes the design and development of an EWS-FP using advanced computational tools/methods, viz. High-Performance Computing (HPC), Remote Sensing, GIS technologies, and open-source tools for the Mahanadi River Basin of India. The flood prediction is based on a robust 2D hydrodynamic model, which solves shallow water equations using the finite volume method. Considering the complexity of the hydrological modeling and the size of the basins in India, it is always a tug of war between better forecast lead time and optimal resolution at which the simulations are to be run. High-performance computing technology provides a good computational means to overcome this issue for the construction of national-level or basin-level flash flood warning systems having a high resolution at local-level warning analysis with a better lead time. High-performance computers with capacities at the order of teraflops and petaflops prove useful while running simulations on such big areas at optimum resolutions. In this study, a free and open-source, HPC-based 2-D hydrodynamic model, with the capability to simulate rainfall run-off, river routing, and tidal forcing, is used. The model was tested for a part of the Mahanadi River Basin (Mahanadi Delta) with actual and predicted discharge, rainfall, and tide data. The simulation time was reduced from 8 hrs to 3 hrs by increasing CPU nodes from 45 to 135, which shows good scalability and performance enhancement. The simulated flood inundation spread and stage were compared with SAR data and CWC Observed Gauge data, respectively. The system shows good accuracy and better lead time suitable for flood forecasting in near-real-time. To disseminate warning to the end user, a network-enabled solution is developed using open-source software. The system has query-based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. System effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to floods, like displaying spatial maps of the area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the criticality of the information. It is designed to facilitate users in managing information related to flooding during critical flood seasons and analyzing the extent of the damage.

Keywords: flood, modeling, HPC, FOSS

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Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

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In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: safety risk assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Seyd Mohammad Reza Mashhoori

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The technology of computer audit played a major role in the progress and prospects of a proper application to improve the quality and efficiency of audit work. But due to the technical complexity and the specific risks of computer audit, it should be shown effective in audit and preventive action. Mainly through research in this paper, we propose the causes of audit risk in a computer environment and the risk of further proposals for measures to control, to some extent reduce the risk of computer audit and improve the audit quality.

Keywords: computer auditing, risk, measures to prevent, information management

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Authors: Sean Sloan

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Probability Risk Assessments (PRA) can be a difficult concept for students to grasp. So in searching for different ways to describe PRA to relate it to their lives; COVID-19 came up. The parallels are amazing. Soon students began analyzing acceptable risk with the virus. This helped them to quantify just how dangerous is dangerous. The original lesson was dismissed and for the remainder of the period, the probability of risk, and the lethality of risk became the topic. Spreading events such as a COVID carrier on an airline became analogous to single fault casualties such as a Tsunami. Odds of spreading became odds of backup-diesel-generator failure – like with Fukashima Daiichi. Fatalities of the disease became expected fatalities due to radiation spread. Quantification from this discussion took it from hyperbole and emotion into one where we could rationally base guidelines. It has been one of the most effective educational devices observed.

Keywords: COVID, education, probability, risk

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Authors: Thohidul Islam, Md. Hamidul Haque, Robin Kumar Biswas

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Floods are one of the deadliest natural disasters which are very complex to model; however, machine learning is opening the door for more reliable and accurate flood prediction. In this research, a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) is developed to model the rainfall-water level relation, in a subtropical monsoon climatic region of the Bangladesh-India border. Our experiments show promising empirical results to forecast the water level for 1 day lead time. Our best performing MLP model achieves 98.7% coefficient of determination with lower model complexity which surpasses previously reported results on similar forecasting problems.

Keywords: flood forecasting, machine learning, multilayer perceptron network, regression

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Authors: Loonibha Manandhar, Rajendra Bhandari, Kumud Raj Kafle

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Nepal’s Terai region is a part of the Ganges river basin which is one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world, with recurrent monsoon flooding causing millions in damage and the death and displacement of hundreds of people and households every year. The vulnerability of human settlements to natural disasters such as floods is increasing, and mapping changes in land use practices and hydro-geological parameters is essential in developing resilient communities and strong disaster management policies. The objective of this study was to develop a flood hazard zonation map of Orai Khola watershed and map the decadal land use/land cover dynamics of the watershed. The watershed area was delineated using SRTM DEM, and LANDSAT images were classified into five land use classes (forest, grassland, sediment and bare land, settlement area and cropland, and water body) using pixel-based semi-automated supervised maximum likelihood classification. Decadal changes in each class were then quantified using spatial modelling. Flood hazard mapping was performed by assigning weights to factors slope, rainfall distribution, distance from the river and land use/land cover on the basis of their estimated influence in causing flood hazard and performing weighed overlay analysis to identify areas that are highly vulnerable. The forest and grassland coverage increased by 11.53 km² (3.8%) and 1.43 km² (0.47%) from 1996 to 2016. The sediment and bare land areas decreased by 12.45 km² (4.12%) from 1996 to 2016 whereas settlement and cropland areas showed a consistent increase to 14.22 km² (4.7%). Waterbody coverage also increased to 0.3 km² (0.09%) from 1996-2016. 1.27% (3.65 km²) of total watershed area was categorized into very low hazard zone, 20.94% (60.31 km²) area into low hazard zone, 37.59% (108.3 km²) area into moderate hazard zone, 29.25% (84.27 km²) area into high hazard zone and 31 villages which comprised 10.95% (31.55 km²) were categorized into high hazard zone area.

Keywords: flood hazard, land use/land cover, Orai river, supervised maximum likelihood classification, weighed overlay analysis

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Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

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Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Seyd Mohammad Reza Mashhoori ‎

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the technology of Computer audit played a major role in the progress and ‎prospects of a proper application to improve the quality and efficiency of audit ‎work. But due to the technical complexity and the specific risks of computer ‎audit, it should be shown effective in audit and preventive action. Mainly through ‎research in this paper, we proposes the causes of audit risk in a computer ‎environment and the risk of further proposals for measures to control, to some ‎extent reduce the risk of computer audit and improve the audit quality.‎

Keywords: computer auditing, risk, measures to prevent, information technology

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Authors: Chee Fei Chang, May Yee Ng

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As a result of its geographical location, flood is a natural disaster that happens regularly in Malaysia. Every year, heavy rainfall is brought by the cyclical monsoon to the East coast of Peninsular Malaysia. In recent years, the occurrence of unexpected heavy downpour somehow connected to climate-change phenomena is also on the increasing trend. Ironically, despite that Malaysians have suffered significant monetary losses as a result of the recurring floods in past many decades, little has been done by the government from the perspective of taxation. Perhaps due to political reason or as a populist measure, the federal and local government are more inclined to offer small cash handout then rolling out long-term tax policy or measure in relieving the financial and tax burden of the victims and affected business entities. Except for the one-off tax break granted to affected businesses in 2007, the authors have not found any income tax exemption or deduction order gazetted with regard to flood disaster. Hence, it is imperative for this study to explore the need and challenges of implementing flood inflicted disaster tax relief or credit in Malaysia. This research consists of two major parts. First, the assessment of relevant tax policies/ measures with regard to non-government organisations and other affected parties. Content and thematic analyses will be applied on current tax legislations and orders issued for this part. Second, a comparative analysis will be conducted benchmarking various disaster tax reliefs and credits implemented in developed countries. Resulting from the increasing climate change-related disasters in Malaysia, the findings of this study will shed light on the importance of introducing disaster tax relief measures to assist individual victims as well as the affected businesses.

Keywords: climate-changed related disaster, disaster tax credits, tax relief for victims, tax measures for disaster recovery

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Authors: Hsiao-Ting Huang, Chang Hsueh-Sheng

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Taiwan is an island country which is affected by the monsoon deeply. Under the climate change, the frequency of extreme rainstorm by typhoon becomes more and more often Since 2000. When the extreme rainstorm comes, it will cause serious damage in Taiwan, especially in urban area. It is suffered by the flooding and the government take it as the urgent issue. On the past, the land use of urban planning does not take flood-detention into consideration. With the development of the city, the impermeable surface increase and most of the people live in urban area. It means there is the highly vulnerability in the urban area, but it cannot deal with the surface runoff and the flooding. However, building the detention pond in hydraulic engineering way to solve the problem is not feasible in urban area. The land expropriation is the most expensive construction of the detention pond in the urban area, and the government cannot afford it. Therefore, the management strategy of flooding in urban area should use the existing resource, public facilities land. It can archive the performance of flood-detention through providing the public facilities land with the detention function. As multi-use public facilities land, it also can show the combination of the land use and water agency. To this purpose, this research generalizes the factors of multi-use for public facilities land as flood-detention space with literature review. The factors can be divided into two categories: environmental factors and conditions of public facilities. Environmental factors including three factors: the terrain elevation, the inundation potential and the distance from the drainage system. In the other hand, there are six factors for conditions of public facilities, including area, building rate, the maximum of available ratio etc. Each of them will be according to it characteristic to given the weight for the land use suitability analysis. This research selects the rules of combination from the logical combination. After this process, it can be classified into three suitability levels. Then, three suitability levels will input to the physiographic inundation model for simulating the evaluation of flood-detention respectively. This study tries to respond the urgent issue in urban area and establishes a model of multi-use for public facilities land as flood-detention through the systematic research process of this study. The result of this study can tell which combination of the suitability level is more efficacious. Besides, The model is not only standing on the side of urban planners but also add in the point of view from water agency. Those findings may serve as basis for land use indicators and decision-making references for concerned government agencies.

Keywords: flooding management strategy, land use suitability analysis, multi-use for public facilities land, physiographic inundation model

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Authors: Dipak Sonawane, Sudarshan Daga, Somesh Gupta

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Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a very precise and consistent approach to defining the likelihood, consequence and severity of a major incident/accident. A variety of hazardous cargoes in bulk, such as hydrocarbons and flammable/toxic chemicals, are handled at various ports. It is well known that most of the operations are hazardous, having the potential of damaging property, causing injury/loss of life and, in some cases, the threat of environmental damage. In order to ensure adequate safety towards life, environment and property, the application of scientific methods such as QRA is inevitable. By means of these methods, comprehensive hazard identification, risk assessment and appropriate implementation of Risk Control measures can be carried out. In this paper, the authors, based on their extensive experience in Risk Analysis for ports and harbors, have exhibited how QRA can be used in practice to minimize and contain risk to tolerable levels. A specific case involving the operation for unloading of hydrocarbon at a port is presented. The exercise provides confidence that the method of QRA, as proposed by the authors, can be used appropriately for the identification of hazards and risk assessment of Ports and Terminals.

Keywords: quantitative risk assessment, hazard assessment, consequence analysis, individual risk, societal risk

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Authors: Syed Sameer Aga, Saniya Nissar

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The Xeroderma pigmentosum group D gene (XPD) plays a key role in nucleotide excision repair (NER) pathway of the damaged DNA. Genetic polymorphisms in the coding region of the XPD gene may alter DNA repair capacity of the protein and hence can modulate the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The aim of the study was to determine the genetic association of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) development. 120 CRC patients and 160 normal controls were assessed for genotype frequencies of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism using PCR-RFLP technique. We observed a significant association (p < 0.05) between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of developing CRC (p < 0.05). Additionally, Gln/Gln genotype of the XPD gene doubled the risk for the development of CRC [p < 0.05; OR=2.25 95% CI (1.07-4.7)]. Our results suggest that there is a significant association between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of CRC.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, polymorphism, RFLP, DNA Repair, NER, XPD

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Authors: Ali Abdullah Albezaghi

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This article aims to introduce a conceptual framework that can facilitate investigations concerning the role of risk management practices in the relationship between construction risks and the construction project's performance. This article is structured based on the extant literature; it reviews theoretical perspectives, highlights the gaps, and illustrates the significance of developing a framework of suggested relationships. Despite growing interest in the role of risks in construction project performance, previous studies have paid little attention to investigating the moderating role of risk management practices on the risk-performance link. This has left researchers and construction project managers with minimal information to explain the conditions under which risk management practices can reduce the impact of project-related risks and improve performance. In this context, this article suggests a viable research model with propositions that assess risk-performance relationships and discusses the potential moderating effects on the domain relationship. This paper adds to the risk management literature by focusing on risk variables that directly impact performance. Further, it also considers the moderating role of risk management practices in such relationships.

Keywords: risk management practices, external risks, internal risks, project risks, project performance

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Authors: Hadush Kidane Meresa

Abstract:

The hydrological extremes frequency analysis is the foundation for the hydraulic engineering design, flood protection, drought management and water resources management and planning to utilize the available water resource to meet the desired objectives of different organizations and sectors in a country. This spatial variation of the statistical characteristics of the extreme flood and drought events are key practice for regional flood and drought analysis and mitigation management. For different hydro-climate of the regions, where the data set is short, scarcity, poor quality and insufficient, the regionalization methods are applied to transfer at-site data to a region. This study aims in regional high and low flow frequency analysis for Poland River Basins. Due to high frequent occurring of hydrological extremes in the region and rapid water resources development in this basin have caused serious concerns over the flood and drought magnitude and frequencies of the river in Poland. The magnitude and frequency result of high and low flows in the basin is needed for flood and drought planning, management and protection at present and future. Hydrological homogeneous high and low flow regions are formed by the cluster analysis of site characteristics, using the hierarchical and C- mean clustering and PCA method. Statistical tests for regional homogeneity are utilized, by Discordancy and Heterogeneity measure tests. In compliance with results of the tests, the region river basin has been divided into ten homogeneous regions. In this study, frequency analysis of high and low flows using AM for high flow and 7-day minimum low flow series is conducted using six statistical distributions. The use of L-moment and LL-moment method showed a homogeneous region over entire province with Generalized logistic (GLOG), Generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson type III (P-III), Generalized Pareto (GPAR), Weibull (WEI) and Power (PR) distributions as the regional drought and flood frequency distributions. The 95% percentile and Flow duration curves of 1, 7, 10, 30 days have been plotted for 10 stations. However, the cluster analysis performed two regions in west and east of the province where L-moment and LL-moment method demonstrated the homogeneity of the regions and GLOG and Pearson Type III (PIII) distributions as regional frequency distributions for each region, respectively. The spatial variation and regional frequency distribution of flood and drought characteristics for 10 best catchment from the whole region was selected and beside the main variable (streamflow: high and low) we used variables which are more related to physiographic and drainage characteristics for identify and delineate homogeneous pools and to derive best regression models for ungauged sites. Those are mean annual rainfall, seasonal flow, average slope, NDVI, aspect, flow length, flow direction, maximum soil moisture, elevation, and drainage order. The regional high-flow or low-flow relationship among one streamflow characteristics with (AM or 7-day mean annual low flows) some basin characteristics is developed using Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and Generalized Least Square (GLS) regression model, providing a simple and effective method for estimation of flood and drought of desired return periods for ungauged catchments.

Keywords: flood , drought, frequency, magnitude, regionalization, stochastic, ungauged, Poland

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Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

Procedia PDF Downloads 250