Search results for: flood risk assessment

Authors: Jonahid Chakder, Mahfuzul Haque

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Flash flood is among the foremost disastrous characteristic hazards which cause hampering within the environment and social orders due to climate change across the world. In Northeastern region of Bangladesh faces severe flash floods regularly, Such, the Khowai river is a flash flood-prone river. But until now, there are no previous studies about the flash flood of this river. Farmlands Building resilience, protection of crops & fish enclosures of wetland in Habiganj Haor areas, regional roads, and business establishments were submerged due to flash floods. The flash floods of the Khowai River are frequent events, which happened in 1988, 1998, 2000, 2007, 2017, and 2019. Therefore, this study tries to analyze Khowai river morphology, Precipitation, Water level, Satellite image, and Catchment characteristics: a catchment scale analysis that helps to comprehend Khowai river flash flood characteristics and factors of influence. From precipitation analysis, the finding outcome disclosed the data about flash flood accurate zones at the Khowai district watershed. The morphological analysis workout from satellite image and find out the consequence of sinuosity and gradient of this river. The sinuosity indicates that the Khowai river is an antecedent and a meandering river and a meandering river can’t influence the flash flood of any region, but other factors respond here. It is understood that the Khowai river catchment elevation analysis from DEM is directly influenced. The left Baramura and Right Atharamura anticline of the Khowai basin watershed reflects a major impact on the stratigraphy as an impermeable clay layer and this consequence the water passes downward with the drainage pattern and Tributary. This drainage system, the gradient of tributary and their runoff, and the confluence of water in the pre-monsoon season rise the Khowai river water level which influences flash floods (within six hours of Precipitation).

Keywords: geology, gradient, tributary, drainage, watershed, flash flood

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Authors: Nader Saadatkhah, Jafar Rahnamarad, Shattri Mansor, Zailani Khuzaimah, Arnis Asmat, Nor Aizam Adnan, Siti Noradzah Adam

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Kelantan river basin as a flood prone area at the east coast of the peninsular Malaysia has suffered several flood and mudflow events in the recent years. The current research attempted to assess the land cover changes impact in the Kelantan river basin focused on the runoff contributions from different land cover classes and the potential impact of land cover changes on runoff generation. In this regards, the hydrological regional modeling of rainfall induced runoff event as the improved transient rainfall infiltration and grid based regional model (Improved-TRIGRS) was employed to compute rate of infiltration, and subsequently changes in the discharge volume in this study. The effects of land use changes on peak flow and runoff volume was investigated using storm rainfall events during the last three decades.

Keywords: improved-TRIGRS model, land cover changes, Kelantan river basin, flood event

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Authors: Molly Gerrish

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This work explores the physical, emotional, social, and cognitive risks and benefits related to nature-based teaching and highlights the importance of promoting a sustainable workforce within early childhood programs. Assessing and managing risks can help programs reimagine their approach to teaching, learning, recruitment, family connectivity, and staff motivation. The importance of staff sustainability and motivation/engagement related to social justice and the environment will be discussed. We will explore ways to manage fears and limitations faced by early childhood programs regarding nature experiences and risky play in a variety of locations using a lens of place-based learning. We will also examine the alignment of sustainability and social-emotional development, mental health supports, social awareness, and risk assessment. The work will discuss the varied perceptions of risk in diverse areas and the impact on the early childhood workforce. Motivational theory and compassion resiliency are hallmarks of both recruiting and retaining high-quality early childhood educators; the work will discuss how to balance programmatic constraints and healthy motivation for students and teachers while empowering individuals to advocate for their mental health and well-being. Finally, the work will highlight the positive impact of nature-based teaching practices and the overall benefit to young children and their educators.

Keywords: child’s rights, inclusion, nature-based education, risk assessment

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Authors: Y. K. Park, B. K. Kim, J. W. Lee, S. J. Lee

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To assess the risk of the underground structures and surrounding ground, we collect basic data by the engineering method of measurement, exploration and surveys and, derive the risk through proper analysis and each assessment for urban railroad underground structures and surrounding ground including station inflow. Basic data are obtained by the fiber-optic sensors, MEMS sensors, water quantity/quality sensors, tunnel scanner, ground penetrating radar, light weight deflectometer, and are evaluated if they are more than the proper value or not. Based on these data, we analyze the risk level of urban railroad underground structures and surrounding ground. And we develop the risk management system to manage efficiently these data and to support a convenient interface environment at input/output of data.

Keywords: urban railroad, underground structures, ground subsidence, station inflow, risk

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Authors: Shannon L. Stewart, Ashley Toohey, Natalia Lapshina

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There is a well-established relationship between childhood maltreatment and negative outcomes (e.g., physical and mental health problems, social skill deficits, poor quality of life). The goal of this study was to examine the relationship between polyvictimization (multiple types of trauma) and risk of harm to self and others, taking into account possible age and sex differences. A total of 8980 children and youth were recruited from over 50 mental health facilities across Ontario, Canada. Among this sample, 29% of children and youth had experienced polyvictimization. Results showed that female children and youth who had experienced trauma were at greater risk of harm to themselves, while their male counterparts were at greater risk of harming others. Further, findings from this study highlight that experiencing polyvictimization, regardless of age or sex, increased the risk of harm to self and others. These findings add to extant literature as to the cumulative relationship between polyvictimization and risk in relation to harming oneself or others. Further, results from this study have significant implications for assessment and care-planning for those children and youth presenting with a trauma background.

Keywords: children's mental health, polyvictimization, risk of harm, sex differences

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Authors: Yas Barzegaar, Atrin Barzegar

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to develop an intelligent system to analyze the risk level of wheat flour product manufacturing system. The model consists of five Fuzzy Inference Systems in two different layers to analyse the risk of a wheat flour product manufacturing system. The first layer of the model consists of four Fuzzy Inference Systems with three criteria. The output of each one of the Physical, Chemical, Biological and Environmental Failures will be the input of the final manufacturing systems. The proposed model based on Mamdani Fuzzy Inference Systems gives a performance ranking of wheat flour products manufacturing systems. The first step is obtaining data to identify the failure modes from expert’s opinions. The second step is the fuzzification process to convert crisp input to a fuzzy set., then the IF-then fuzzy rule applied through inference engine, and in the final step, the defuzzification process is applied to convert the fuzzy output into real numbers.

Keywords: failure modes, fuzzy rules, fuzzy inference system, risk assessment

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Authors: Chee Fei Chang, May Yee Ng

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As a result of its geographical location, flood is a natural disaster that happens regularly in Malaysia. Every year, heavy rainfall is brought by the cyclical monsoon to the East coast of Peninsular Malaysia. In recent years, the occurrence of unexpected heavy downpour somehow connected to climate-change phenomena is also on the increasing trend. Ironically, despite that Malaysians have suffered significant monetary losses as a result of the recurring floods in past many decades, little has been done by the government from the perspective of taxation. Perhaps due to political reason or as a populist measure, the federal and local government are more inclined to offer small cash handout then rolling out long-term tax policy or measure in relieving the financial and tax burden of the victims and affected business entities. Except for the one-off tax break granted to affected businesses in 2007, the authors have not found any income tax exemption or deduction order gazetted with regard to flood disaster. Hence, it is imperative for this study to explore the need and challenges of implementing flood inflicted disaster tax relief or credit in Malaysia. This research consists of two major parts. First, the assessment of relevant tax policies/ measures with regard to non-government organisations and other affected parties. Content and thematic analyses will be applied on current tax legislations and orders issued for this part. Second, a comparative analysis will be conducted benchmarking various disaster tax reliefs and credits implemented in developed countries. Resulting from the increasing climate change-related disasters in Malaysia, the findings of this study will shed light on the importance of introducing disaster tax relief measures to assist individual victims as well as the affected businesses.

Keywords: climate-changed related disaster, disaster tax credits, tax relief for victims, tax measures for disaster recovery

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Authors: Irene Perez Lopez

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Delta and estuary cities are spaces constantly evolving, incessantly altered by the ever-changing actions of water transformation. Strategies that incorporate comprehensive and integrated approaches to planning and design with water will play a powerful role in defining new types of flood defense. These strategies will encourage more resilient and active urban environments, allowing for new spatial and functional programs. This abstract presents the undergoing research in Newcastle, the first urbanized delta in New South Wales (Australia), and the region's second-biggest catchment and estuary. The research methodology is organized in three phases: 1) a projective cartography that analyses maps and data across the region's recorded history, identifying past and present constraints, and predicting future conditions. The cartography aids to identify worst-case scenarios, revealing the implications of land reclamation that have not considered the confronting evolution of climate change and its conflicts with inhabitation; 2) the cartographic studies identify the areas under threat and form the basis for further interdisciplinary research, complimented by community consultation, to reduce flood risk and increase urban resilience and livability; 3) a speculative or prospective phase of design with water to generate evidence-based guidelines that strengthen urban resilience of shorelines and flood prone areas.

Keywords: coastal defense, design, urban resilience, mapping

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Authors: N. Pegahfar, P. Ghafarian

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In this research, the synoptic weather conditions during the heavy flood of 10-12 January 2020 in the Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province of Iran will be analyzed. To this aim, reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis data, measured data from a surface station together with satellite images from the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) have been used from 9 to 12 January 2020. Atmospheric parameters both at the lower troposphere and also at the upper part of that have been used, including absolute vorticity, wind velocity, temperature, geopotential height, relative humidity, and precipitation. Results indicated that both lower-level and upper-level currents were strong. In addition, the transport of a large amount of humidity from the Oman Sea and the Red Sea to the south and southeast of Iran (Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province) led to the vast and unexpected precipitation and then a heavy flood.

Keywords: Sistan-va-Balouchestn Province, heavy flood, synoptic, analysis data

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Authors: Loonibha Manandhar, Rajendra Bhandari, Kumud Raj Kafle

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Nepal’s Terai region is a part of the Ganges river basin which is one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world, with recurrent monsoon flooding causing millions in damage and the death and displacement of hundreds of people and households every year. The vulnerability of human settlements to natural disasters such as floods is increasing, and mapping changes in land use practices and hydro-geological parameters is essential in developing resilient communities and strong disaster management policies. The objective of this study was to develop a flood hazard zonation map of Orai Khola watershed and map the decadal land use/land cover dynamics of the watershed. The watershed area was delineated using SRTM DEM, and LANDSAT images were classified into five land use classes (forest, grassland, sediment and bare land, settlement area and cropland, and water body) using pixel-based semi-automated supervised maximum likelihood classification. Decadal changes in each class were then quantified using spatial modelling. Flood hazard mapping was performed by assigning weights to factors slope, rainfall distribution, distance from the river and land use/land cover on the basis of their estimated influence in causing flood hazard and performing weighed overlay analysis to identify areas that are highly vulnerable. The forest and grassland coverage increased by 11.53 km² (3.8%) and 1.43 km² (0.47%) from 1996 to 2016. The sediment and bare land areas decreased by 12.45 km² (4.12%) from 1996 to 2016 whereas settlement and cropland areas showed a consistent increase to 14.22 km² (4.7%). Waterbody coverage also increased to 0.3 km² (0.09%) from 1996-2016. 1.27% (3.65 km²) of total watershed area was categorized into very low hazard zone, 20.94% (60.31 km²) area into low hazard zone, 37.59% (108.3 km²) area into moderate hazard zone, 29.25% (84.27 km²) area into high hazard zone and 31 villages which comprised 10.95% (31.55 km²) were categorized into high hazard zone area.

Keywords: flood hazard, land use/land cover, Orai river, supervised maximum likelihood classification, weighed overlay analysis

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Authors: Natalia Kalinowska

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The adoption of the General Data Protection Regulation, (GDPR) finished the four-year work of the European Commission in this area in the European Union. Considering far-reaching changes, which will be applied by GDPR, the European legislator envisaged two-year transitional period. Member states and companies have to prepare for a new regulation until 25 of May 2018. The idea, which becomes a new look at an attitude to data protection in the European Union is risk-based approach. So far, as a result of implementation of Directive 95/46/WE, in many European countries (including Poland) there have been adopted very particular regulations, specifying technical and organisational security measures e.g. Polish implementing rules indicate even how long password should be. According to the new approach from May 2018, controllers and processors will be obliged to apply security measures adequate to level of risk associated with specific data processing. The risk in GDPR should be interpreted as the likelihood of a breach of the rights and freedoms of the data subject. According to Recital 76, the likelihood and severity of the risk to the rights and freedoms of the data subject should be determined by reference to the nature, scope, context and purposes of the processing. GDPR does not indicate security measures which should be applied – in recitals there are only examples such as anonymization or encryption. It depends on a controller’s decision what type of security measures controller considered as sufficient and he will be responsible if these measures are not sufficient or if his identification of risk level is incorrect. Data protection regulation indicates few levels of risk. Recital 76 indicates risk and high risk, but some lawyers think, that there is one more category – low risk/now risk. Low risk/now risk data processing is a situation when it is unlikely to result in a risk to the rights and freedoms of natural persons. GDPR mentions types of data processing when a controller does not have to evaluate level of risk because it has been classified as „high risk” processing e.g. processing on a large scale of special categories of data, processing with using new technologies. The methodology will include analysis of legal regulations e.g. GDPR, the Polish Act on the Protection of personal data. Moreover: ICO Guidelines and articles concerning risk based approach in GDPR. The main conclusion is that an appropriate risk assessment is a key to keeping data safe and avoiding financial penalties. On the one hand, this approach seems to be more equitable, not only for controllers or processors but also for data subjects, but on the other hand, it increases controllers’ uncertainties in the assessment which could have a direct impact on incorrect data protection and potential responsibility for infringement of regulation.

Keywords: general data protection regulation, personal data protection, privacy protection, risk based approach

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Authors: Xiaoxian Zhang

Abstract:

Guidelines of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and food safety assessment (FSA) used nowadays, based on an S-shaped threshold dose-response curve (SDR), fail to consider hormesis, a reproducible biphasic dose-response model represented as a J-shaped or an inverted U-shaped curve, that occurs in the real-life environment across multitudinous compounds on cells, organisms, populations, and even the ecosystem. Specifically, in SDR-based ERA and FSA practice, predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) is calculated separately for individual substances from no observed effect concentration (NOEC, usually equivalent to 10% effect concentration (EC10) of a contaminant or food condiment) over an assessment coefficient that is bigger than 1. Experienced researchers doubted that hormesis in the real-life environment might lead to a waste of limited human and material resources in ERA and FSA practice, but related data are scarce. In this study, hormetic effects on bioluminescence of Aliivibrio fischeri (A. f) induced by sulfachloropyridazine (SCP) under 40 conditions to simulate the real-life scenario were investigated, and hormetic effects on growth of human MCF-7 cells caused by brown sugar and mascavado sugar were found likewise. After comparison of related parameters, it has for the first time been proved that there is a 50% probability for safe concentration (SC) of contaminants and food condiments to fall within the hormetic-stimulatory range (HSR) or left to HSR, revealing the unreliability of traditional parameters in standardized (eco)toxicological studies, and supporting qualitatively and quantitatively the over-strictness of ERA and FSA resulted from misuse of SDR. This study provides a novel perspective for ERA and FSA practitioners that hormesis should dominate and conditions where SDR works should only be singled out on a specific basis.

Keywords: dose-response relationship, food safety, ecological risk assessment, hormesis

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Authors: Fatemeh Nokhodchi Bonab

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Bioinformatics, in its broad sense, involves application of computer processes to solve biological problems. A wide range of computational tools are needed to effectively and efficiently process large amounts of data being generated as a result of recent technological innovations in biology and medicine. A number of computational tools have been developed or adapted to deal with the experimental riches of complex and multivariate data and transition from data collection to information or knowledge. These bioinformatics tools are being evaluated and applied in various medical areas including early detection, risk assessment, classification, and prognosis of cancer. The goal of these efforts is to develop and identify bioinformatics methods with optimal sensitivity, specificity, and predictive capabilities. The recent flood of data from genome sequences and functional genomics has given rise to new field, bioinformatics, which combines elements of biology and computer science. Bioinformatics is conceptualizing biology in terms of macromolecules (in the sense of physical-chemistry) and then applying "informatics" techniques (derived from disciplines such as applied maths, computer science, and statistics) to understand and organize the information associated with these molecules, on a large-scale. Here we propose a definition for this new field and review some of the research that is being pursued, particularly in relation to transcriptional regulatory systems.

Keywords: methods, applications, transcriptional regulatory systems, techniques

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Authors: Reza Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

The major challenges in geotechnical engineering in underground spaces arise from uncertainties and different probabilities. The collection, collation, and collaboration of existing data to incorporate them in analysis and design for given prospect evaluation would be a reliable, practical problem solving method under uncertainty. Machine learning (ML) is a subfield of artificial intelligence in statistical science which applies different techniques (e.g., Regression, neural networks, support vector machines, decision trees, random forests, genetic programming, etc.) on data to automatically learn and improve from them without being explicitly programmed and make decisions and predictions. In this paper, a conceptual database schema of geotechnical risks in underground coal mining based on a cloud system architecture has been designed. A new approach of risk assessment using a three-dimensional risk matrix supported by the level of knowledge (LoK) has been proposed in this model. Subsequently, the model workflow methodology stages have been described. In order to train data and LoK models deployment, an ML platform has been implemented. IBM Watson Studio, as a leading data science tool and data-driven cloud integration ML platform, is employed in this study. As a Use case, a data set of geotechnical hazards and risk assessment in underground coal mining were prepared to demonstrate the performance of the model, and accordingly, the results have been outlined.

Keywords: data model, geotechnical risks, machine learning, underground coal mining

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Authors: Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Takuma Kotani, Terada Kenjiro

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If risk management of the assets owned by companies, risk assessment of real estate portfolio, and risk identification of the entire region are to be implemented, it is necessary to consider simultaneous damage to multiple buildings. In this research, the Sagami Trough earthquake tsunami that could have a significant effect on the Japanese capital region is focused on, and a method is proposed for simultaneous damage assessment using copulas that can take into consideration the correlation of tsunami depths and building damage between two sites. First, the tsunami inundation depths at two sites were simulated by using a nonlinear long-wave equation. The tsunamis were simulated by varying the slip amount (five cases) and the depths (five cases) for each of 10 sources of the Sagami Trough. For each source, the frequency distributions of the tsunami inundation depth were evaluated by using the response surface method. Then, Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted, and frequency distributions of tsunami inundation depth were evaluated at the target sites for all sources of the Sagami Trough. These are marginal distributions. Kendall’s tau for the tsunami inundation simulation at two sites was 0.83. Based on this value, the Gaussian copula, t-copula, Clayton copula, and Gumbel copula (n = 10,000) were generated. Then, the simultaneous distributions of the damage rate were evaluated using the marginal distributions and the copulas. For the correlation of the tsunami inundation depth at the two sites, the expected value hardly changed compared with the case of no correlation, but the damage rate of the ninety-ninth percentile value was approximately 2%, and the maximum value was approximately 6% when using the Gumbel copula.

Keywords: copulas, Monte-Carlo simulation, probabilistic risk assessment, tsunamis

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Authors: Rohin Rameswarapu, Sameer Valsangkar

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Background: Globally, musculoskeletal disorders are the largest single cause of work-related illnesses accounting for over 33% of all newly reported occupational illnesses. Risk factors for MSD need to be delineated to suggest means for amelioration. Material and methods: In this current cross-sectional study, the prevalence of MSDs among workers in an electrical company assembly line, the socio-demographic and job characteristics associated with MSD were obtained through a semi-structured questionnaire. A quantitative assessment of the physical risk factors through the Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) tool, and measurement of psychosocial risk factors through a Likert scale was obtained. Statistical analysis was conducted using Epi-info software and descriptive and inferential statistics including chi-square and unpaired t test were obtained. Results: A total of 263 workers consented and participated in the study. Among these workers, 200 (76%) suffered from MSD. Most of the workers were aged between 18–27 years and majority of the workers were women with 198 (75.2%) of the 263 workers being women. A chi square test was significant for association between male gender and MSD with a P value of 0.007. Among the MSD positive group, 4 (2%) had a grand score of 5, 10 (5%) had a grand score of 6 and 186 (93%) had a grand score of 7 on RULA. There were significant differences between the non-MSD and MSD group on five out of the seven psychosocial domains, namely job demand, job monotony, co-worker support, decision control and family and environment domains. Discussion: The current cross-sectional study demonstrates a high prevalence of MSD among assembly line works with inherent physical and psychosocial risk factors and recommends that not only physical risk factors, addressing psychosocial risk factors through proper ergonomic means is also essential to the well-being of the employee.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, India, occupational health, Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA)

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Authors: Fatemeh Rezaei, Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshnas

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Background: Failure Modes and Effect Analysis is now having known as the main methods of risk assessment and the accreditation requirements for many organizations. The Risk Priority Number (RPN) approach is generally preferred, especially for its easiness of use. Indeed it does not require statistical data, but it is based on subjective evaluations given by the experts about the Occurrence (O i), the Severity (Si) and the Detectability (D i) of each cause of failure. Methods: This study is a quantitative – qualitative research. In terms of qualitative dimension, method of focus groups with inductive approach is used. To evaluate the results of the qualitative study, quantitative assessment was conducted to calculate RPN score. Results; We have studied patient’s journey process in surgery ward and the most important phase of the process determined Transport of the patient from the holding area to the operating room. Failures of the phase with the highest priority determined by defining inclusion criteria included severity (clinical effect, claim consequence, waste of time and financial loss), occurrence (time- unit occurrence and degree of exposure to risk) and preventability (degree of preventability and defensive barriers) and quantifying risks priority criteria in the context of RPN index. Ability of improved RPN reassess by root cause (RCA) analysis showed some variations. Conclusions: Finally, It could be concluded that understandable criteria should have been developed according to personnel specialized language and communication field. Therefore, participation of both technical and clinical groups is necessary to modify and apply these models.

Keywords: failure mode, effects analysis, risk priority number(RPN), health system, risk assessment

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Authors: Atrin Barzegar, Yas Barzegar, Stefano Marrone, Francesco Bellini, Laura Verde

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The aim of this research is to develop an intelligent system to analyze the risk level of wheat flour product manufacturing system. The model consists of five Fuzzy Inference Systems in two different layers to analyse the risk of a wheat flour product manufacturing system. The first layer of the model consists of four Fuzzy Inference Systems with three criteria. The output of each one of the Physical, Chemical, Biological and Environmental Failures will be the input of the final manufacturing systems. The proposed model based on Mamdani Fuzzy Inference Systems gives a performance ranking of wheat flour products manufacturing systems. The first step is obtaining data to identify the failure modes from expert’s opinions. The second step is the fuzzification process to convert crisp input to a fuzzy set., then the IF-then fuzzy rule applied through inference engine, and in the final step, the defuzzification process is applied to convert the fuzzy output into real numbers.

Keywords: failure modes, fuzzy rules, fuzzy inference system, risk assessment

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Authors: Masoud Nasiri Sarvi, Yunhua Luo

Abstract:

Low-trauma hip fracture, usually caused by fall from standing height, has become a main source of morbidity and mortality for the elderly. Factors affecting hip fracture include sex, race, age, body weight, height, body mass distribution, etc., and thus, hip fracture risk in fall differs widely from subject to subject. It is therefore necessary to develop a subject-specific biomechanical model to predict hip fracture risk. The objective of this study is to develop a two-level, image-based, subject-specific biomechanical model consisting of a whole-body dynamics model and a proximal-femur finite element (FE) model for more accurately assessing the risk of hip fracture in lateral falls. Required information for constructing the model is extracted from a whole-body and a hip DXA (Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) image of the subject. The proposed model considers all parameters subject-specifically, which will provide a fast, accurate, and non-expensive method for predicting hip fracture risk.

Keywords: bone mineral density, hip fracture risk, impact force, sideways falls

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Authors: Nachawit Tikul

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This study aimed to determine low-income housing adaptations for flooding, which causes living problems and housing damage, and the results from improvement. Three low-income settlements in Chiang Mai which experienced different flood types, i.e. flash floods in Samukeepattana, drainage floods in Bansanku, and river floods in Kampangam, were chosen for the study. Almost all of the residents improved their houses to protect the property from flood damage by changing building materials to flood damage resistant materials for walls, floors, and other parts of the structure that were below the base of annual flood elevation. They could only build some parts of their own homes, so hiring skilled workers or contractors was still important. Building materials which have no need for any special tools and are easy to access and use for construction, as well as low cost, are selected for construction. The residents in the three slums faced living problems for only a short time and were able to cope with them. This may be due to the location of the three slums near the city where assistance is readily available. But the housing and the existence in the slums can endure only the regular floods and residence still have problems in unusual floods, which have been experienced 1-2 times during the past 10 years. The residents accept the need for evacuations and prepare for them. When faced with extreme floods, residence have evacuated to the nearest safe place such as schools and public building, and come back to repair the houses after the flood. These are the distinguishing characteristics of low-income living which can withstand serious situations due to the simple lifestyle. Therefore, preparation of living areas for use during severe floods and encouraging production of affordable flood resistant materials should be areas of concern when formulating disaster assistance policies for low income people.

Keywords: flooding, low-income settlement, housing, adaptation

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Authors: Euan Donley

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Emergency Departments (EDs) are heavily burdened as presentation rates continue to rise. To improve patient flow National Emergency Access Targets (NEAT) were introduced. NEAT implements timelines for ED presentations, such as discharging patients within four hours of arrival. Mental health patients use EDs more than the general population and are generally more complex in their presentations. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of NEAT on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in the ED. Seventy-eight mental health clinicians from 7 Victoria, Australia, hospital EDs participated in a mixed method analysis via anonymous online survey. NEAT was considered helpful as mental health patients were seen quicker, were less likely to abscond, could improve teamwork amongst ED staff, and in some cases administrative processes were better streamlined. However, clinicians felt that NEAT was also responsible for less time with patients and relatives’, resulted in rushed assessments, placed undue pressure on mental health clinicians, was not conducive to training, and the emphasis on time was the wrong focus for patient treatment. The profile of a patient typically likely to be treated within NEAT timelines showed a perfect storm of luck and compliance. If a patient was sober, medically stable, referred early, did not require much collateral information and did not have distressed relatives, NEAT was more likely to be met. Organisationally participants reported no organisational change or training to meet NEAT. Poor mental health staffing, multiple ED presentations and a shortage of mental health beds also hamper meeting NEAT. Findings suggest participants were supportive of NEAT in principle, but a demanding workload and organisational barriers meant NEAT had an overall negative effect on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in ED.

Keywords: assessment, emergency, risk, psychiatric

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Authors: Rabih Ghostine, Craig Kapfer, Viswanathan Kannan, Ibrahim Hoteit

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Urban flooding resulting from a sudden release of water due to dam-break or excessive rainfall is a serious threatening environment hazard, which causes loss of human life and large economic losses. Anticipating floods before they occur could minimize human and economic losses through the implementation of appropriate protection, provision, and rescue plans. This work reports on the numerical modelling of flash flood propagation in urban areas after an excessive rainfall event or dam-break. A two-dimensional (2D) depth-averaged shallow water model is used with a refined unstructured grid of triangles for representing the urban area topography. The 2D shallow water equations are solved using a second-order well-balanced discontinuous Galerkin scheme. Theoretical test case and three flood events are described to demonstrate the potential benefits of the scheme: (i) wetting and drying in a parabolic basin (ii) flash flood over a physical model of the urbanized Toce River valley in Italy; (iii) wave propagation on the Reyran river valley in consequence of the Malpasset dam-break in 1959 (France); and (iv) dam-break flood in October 1982 at the town of Sumacarcel (Spain). The capability of the scheme is also verified against alternative models. Computational results compare well with recorded data and show that the scheme is at least as efficient as comparable second-order finite volume schemes, with notable efficiency speedup due to parallelization.

Keywords: dam-break, discontinuous Galerkin scheme, flood modeling, shallow water equations

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Authors: Hj Mohd Sidek bin Hj Mohd Yusof

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More than 1.5 billion people around the world are adversely affected by floods. Floods account for about a third of all natural catastrophes, cause more than half of all fatalities and are responsible for a third of overall economic loss around the world. Giving advanced warning of impending disasters can reduce or even avoid the number of deaths, social and economic hardships that are so commonly reported after the event. Integrated catchment management recognizes that it is not practical or viable to provide structural measures that will keep floodwater away from the community and their property. Non-structural measures are therefore required to assist the community to cope when flooding occurs which exceeds the capacity of the structural measures. Non-structural measures may need to be used to influence the way land is used or buildings are constructed, or they may be used to improve the community’s preparedness and response to flooding. The development and implementation of non-structural measures may be guided and encouraged by policy and legislation, or through voluntary action by the community based on knowledge gained from public education programs. There is a range of non-structural measures that can be used for flood hazard mitigation which can be the use measures includes policies and rules applied by government to regulate the kinds of activities that are carried out in various flood-prone areas, including minimum floor levels and the type of development approved. Voluntary actions taken by the authorities and by the community living and working on the flood plain to lessen flooding effects on themselves and their properties including monitoring land use changes, monitoring and investigating the effects of bush / forest clearing in the catchment and providing relevant flood related information to the community. Response modification measures may include: flood warning system, flood education, community awareness and readiness, evacuation arrangements and recovery plan. A Civil Defense Emergency Management needs to be established for Brunei Darussalam in order to plan, co-ordinate and undertake flood emergency management. This responsibility may be taken by the Ministry of Home Affairs, Brunei Darussalam who is already responsible for Fire Fighting and Rescue services. Several pieces of legislation and planning instruments are in place to assist flood management, particularly: flood warning system, flood education Community awareness and readiness, evacuation arrangements and recovery plan.

Keywords: RTB, radio television brunei, DDMC, district disaster management center, FIR, flood incidence report, PWD, public works department

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Authors: Adnan F. Sheikh, Fayaz A. Mir

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After the recent devastating flood in Kashmir in 2014, dredging of the local water bodies, especially Jhelum River has become a priority for the government. Local government under the project name of 'Comprehensive Flood Management Programme' plans to undertake an increase in discharge of existing flood channels by removal of encroachments and acquisition of additional land, dredging and other works of the water bodies. The total quantity of soil to be dredged will be 16.15 lac cumecs. Dredged soil is a major component that would result from the project which requires disposal/utilization. This study analyses the effect of cement and sand on the engineering properties of soil. The tests were conducted with variable additions of sand (10%, 20% and 30%), whereas cement was added at 12%. Samples with following compositions: soil-cement (12%) and soil-sand (30%) were tested as well. Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the engineering characteristics of soil, i.e., compaction, strength, and CBR characteristics. The strength characteristics of the soil were determined by unconfined compressive strength test and direct shear test. Unconfined compressive strength of the soil was tested immediately and for a curing period of seven days. CBR test was performed for unsoaked, soaked (worst condition- 4 days) and cured (4 days) samples.

Keywords: comprehensive flood management programme, dredge soil, strength characteristics, flood

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Authors: Soumita Banerjee

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The State of West Bengal is mostly watered by innumerable rivers, and they are different in nature in both the northern and the southern part of the state. The southern part of West Bengal is mainly drained with the river Bhagirathi-Hooghly, and its major distributaries and tributaries have divided this major river basin into many subparts like the Ichamati-Bidyadhari, Pagla-Bansloi, Mayurakshi-Babla, Ajay, Damodar, Kangsabati Sub-basin to name a few. These rivers basically drain the Districts of Bankura, Burdwan, Hooghly, Nadia and Purulia, Birbhum, Midnapore, Murshidabad, North 24-Parganas, Kolkata, Howrah and South 24-Parganas. West Bengal has a huge number of flood-prone blocks in the southern part of the state of West Bengal, the responsible factors for flood situation are the shape and size of the catchment area, its steep gradient starting from plateau to flat terrain, the river bank erosion and its siltation, tidal condition especially in the lower Ganga Basin and very low maintenance of the embankments which are mostly used as communication links. Along with these factors, DVC (Damodar Valley Corporation) plays an important role in the generation (with the release of water) and controlling the flood situation. This year the whole Gangetic West Bengal is being flooded due to high intensity and long duration rainfall, and the release of water from the Durgapur Barrage As most of the rivers are interstate in nature at times floods also take place with release of water from the dams of the neighbouring states like Jharkhand. Other than Embankments, there is no such structural measures for combatting flood in West Bengal. This paper tries to analyse the reasons behind the flood situation this year especially with the help of climatic data collected from the Indian Metrological Department, flood related data from the Irrigation and Waterways Department, West Bengal and GPM (General Precipitation Measurement) data for rainfall analysis. Based on the threshold value derived from the calculation of the past available flood data, it is possible to predict the flood events which may occur in the near future and with the help of social media it can be spread out within a very short span of time to aware the mass. On a larger or a governmental scale, heightening the settlements situated on the either banks of the river can yield a better result than building up embankments.

Keywords: dam failure, embankments, flood, rainfall

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Authors: P. S. Hsi, Y. F. Wang, Y. F. Ho, P. C. Hung

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The aim of the present study was to explore the dermal exposure assessment model of chemicals that have been developed abroad and to evaluate the feasibility of chemical dermal exposure assessment model for manufacturing industry in Taiwan. We conducted and analyzed six semi-quantitative risk management tools, including UK - Control of substances hazardous to health ( COSHH ) Europe – Risk assessment of occupational dermal exposure ( RISKOFDERM ), Netherlands - Dose related effect assessment model ( DREAM ), Netherlands – Stoffenmanager ( STOFFEN ), Nicaragua-Dermal exposure ranking method ( DERM ) and USA / Canada - Public Health Engineering Department ( PHED ). Five types of manufacturing industry were selected to evaluate. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the sensitivity of each factor, and the correlation between the assessment results of each semi-quantitative model and the exposure factors used in the model was analyzed to understand the important evaluation indicators of the dermal exposure assessment model. To assess the effectiveness of the semi-quantitative assessment models, this study also conduct quantitative dermal exposure results using prediction model and verify the correlation via Pearson's test. Results show that COSHH was unable to determine the strength of its decision factor because the results evaluated at all industries belong to the same risk level. In the DERM model, it can be found that the transmission process, the exposed area, and the clothing protection factor are all positively correlated. In the STOFFEN model, the fugitive, operation, near-field concentrations, the far-field concentration, and the operating time and frequency have a positive correlation. There is a positive correlation between skin exposure, work relative time, and working environment in the DREAM model. In the RISKOFDERM model, the actual exposure situation and exposure time have a positive correlation. We also found high correlation with the DERM and RISKOFDERM models, with coefficient coefficients of 0.92 and 0.93 (p<0.05), respectively. The STOFFEN and DREAM models have poor correlation, the coefficients are 0.24 and 0.29 (p>0.05), respectively. According to the results, both the DERM and RISKOFDERM models are suitable for performance in these selected manufacturing industries. However, considering the small sample size evaluated in this study, more categories of industries should be evaluated to reduce its uncertainty and enhance its applicability in the future.

Keywords: dermal exposure, risk management, quantitative estimation, feasibility evaluation

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, A. O. Ogunkeyede, A. O. Adeigbe

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Digital globalisation and yarn of Nigeria society to overcome the digital divide have resulted in contamination of soil by heavy metals (HMs) from e-waste activities at Alaba international market, Lagos, Nigeria. The aim of this research was to determine the concentration of various metals {Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), and Lead (Pb)} and identify their ecological and health risks for the people within the study area. A total of 60 soil samples were collected at Alaba market study area. Two types of samples were collected from each sampling points: topsoil (0-15 cm), subsoil (15 -30 cm). The metal concentration results showed that the soils were heavily contaminated by HMs at topsoil and subsoil. The geoaccummulation and ecological risk indices revealed high pollution level from all studied site. The health risk assessment results suggested that there is high possibility of carcinogenic risk to humans because the carcinogenic risk via corresponding exposure pathways exceeded the safety limit of 10-6 (the acceptable level of carcinogenic risk for human). Furthermore, inhalation of soil particles is the main exposure pathway for Cr to enter the human body for all ages. Children in the vicinity are exposed more to ingestion of Pb since they tend to eat earth (pica) and repeatedly suck their fingers. This study provides basic information to create awareness for a need to introduce pollution control measures and the need to protect the ecosystem and human health within the study area at Alaba international market.

Keywords: contaminated soil, ecological risk, hazard index, risk factor, exposure pathways, heavy metals

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: Mohammad Shoraka, Raulina Wojtkiewicz, Karthik Ramanathan

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Following the devastating summer 2021 floods in Germany, catastrophe modelers realized that hazard parameters, such as flow velocity, flood duration, and debris flow, play a significant role in capturing the overall damage potential of such events. Accounting for the location-specific static depth as the only hazard intensity metric may lead to a substantial underestimation of the vulnerability of building stock and, eventually, the loss potential of such catastrophic events. As the flow velocity increases, the hydrodynamic forces acting on various building components are amplified. Longer flood duration leads to water permeating porous components, incurring additional cleanup costs that contribute to an overall increase in damage. Debris flow possesses the power to erode extensive sections of buildings, thus substantially augmenting the extent of losses. This paper introduces four flow velocity classes, ranging from no flow velocity to major velocity, along with two flood duration classes: short and long, in estimating the vulnerability of the building stock. Additionally, the study examines the impact of the presence of debris flow and its role in exacerbating flood damage. The paper delves into the effects of each of these parameters on building component damageability and their collective impact on the overall building vulnerability.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, building vulnerability, hazard parameters, component damage function

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Authors: G. Lei, P. C. Dong, X. Q. Cen, S. Y. Mo

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One of the most significant parameters, describing the effect of water flooding in porous media, is flood-response time, and it is an important index in oilfield development. The responding time in low permeability reservoir is usually calculated by the method of stable state successive substitution neglecting the effect of medium deformation. Numerous studies show that the media deformation has an important impact on the development for low permeability reservoirs and can not be neglected. On the base of streamline tube model, we developed a method to interpret responding time with medium deformation factor. The results show that: the media deformation factor, threshold pressure gradient and well spacing have a significant effect on the flood response time. The greater the media deformation factor, threshold pressure gradient or well spacing is, the lower the flood response time is. The responding time of different streamlines varies. As the angle with the main streamline increases, the water flooding response time delays as a "parabola" shape.

Keywords: low permeability, flood-response time, threshold pressure gradient, medium deformation

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Authors: Said Moqeem Sadat, Saito Takahiro, Inuzuka Norikazu, Sugiyama Ikuo

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Kabul city is the capital of Afghanistan with a population of about 4.0 million in 2009 and 6.5 million in 2025. It is geographically located in a narrow plain valley along the Kabul River and is surrounded by high mountains. Due to its sharp geological condition, the city has been suffering from floods caused by storm water and snow melting water in the rainy season. Meanwhile, potable water resources are becoming a critical issue as the underground water table is decreasing falling rapidly due to domestic usage, industrial and agricultural activities usage especially in the dry season. This paper focuses on flood water management in Kabul including suburban agricultural area considering not only for flood protection but also: 1. To reserve the quality underground water for the future population growth. 2. To irrigate farming area in dry season using storm water ponds in rainy season. 3. To discharge city contaminated flood water to the downstream safely using existing channels/new pipes. Cost and benefit is considered in this study to find out a suitable flood protection method both in rural area and city center from a view point of 1 to 3 mentioned above. In this analysis, cost mainly consists of lost opportunity to develop lands due to flood ponds in addition to construction and maintenance one including connecting channels for water collecting/discharging. Benefit mainly consists of damage reduction of flood loss due to counter measures (this is corresponding cost) in addition to the contribution to agricultural crops. As far as reservation of the ground water for the future city growth is concerned, future demand and supply are compared in case that the pumping amount is limited by this irrigation system.

Keywords: cost-benefit, hydrological modeling, water management, water quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 246