Search results for: flood insurance demand

Authors: Betty Makena, Tsegaye Tadesse, Mark Svoboda

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Global warming has intensified the frequency and intensity of extreme climate disasters and led to unpredictable weather conditions. Consequently, rapid shifts between drought and floods, known as Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration (DFAA), have become increasingly common. DFAA results in superimposed impacts of drought and floods within a short period, exacerbating the effects of the floods or drought event. Current disaster management plans often overlook DFAA events, as they primarily focus on either floods or drought. Therefore, effectively identifying DFAA events is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study aims to identify historical DFAA events in Kenya using the Long Cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration Index (LDFAI). The research will analyze the spatial distribution, temporal variation, and intensity of DFAA events from 1990 to 2023, as well as their socio-economic impacts. Understanding these events is important to develop more effective strategies to address the impacts of DFAA events. Findings from this study will inform decision making to develop coping strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of DFAA in Kenya.

Keywords: abrupt, alteration, drought, floods

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Authors: Dimeji Abe, Nonso Okoye, Gideon Ikpimi, Prince Idemudia

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Multi-reservoir optimization operation has been a critical issue for river basin management. Water, as a scarce resource, is in high demand and the problems associated with the reservoir as its storage facility are enormous. The complexity in balancing the supply and demand of this prime resource has created the need to examine the best way to solve the problem using optimization techniques. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the multi-objective meta-heuristic algorithm for the operation of Gariep Dam for satisfying ecological flow requirements. This study uses an evolutionary algorithm called backtrack search algorithm (BSA) to determine the best way to optimise the dam operations of hydropower production, flood control, and water supply without affecting the environmental flow requirement for the survival of aquatic bodies and sustain life downstream of the dam. To achieve this objective, the operations of the dam that corresponds to different tradeoffs between the objectives are optimized. The results indicate the best model from the algorithm that satisfies all the objectives without any constraint violation. It is expected that hydropower generation will be improved and more water will be available for ecological flow requirements with the use of the algorithm. This algorithm also provides farmers with more irrigation water as well to improve their business.

Keywords: BSA evolutionary algorithm, metaheuristics, optimization, river basin management

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Authors: Susanna Pho

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With the rise in frequency of high impact flooding events and continued growth across the state, communities in Florida are increasingly turning to innovative higher regulatory standards to keep residents safe. Using models and maps that take future conditions into account can help coastal communities at high risk of flooding adapt, but the associated responsibilities of enforcing and educating stakeholders about floodplain management can be a barrier to adoption. This is especially true in communities that are already managing multiple maps, as adding more regulatory mapping may overwhelm resource-constrained building departments. Without effective workflow solutions, even small tasks like communicating regulations to residents or determining the most restrictive mapping for a permit application can become challenging when dealing with complex maps. Using the case study of Forerunner’s work with a partner community, this session will outline how the community combines technology with robust outreach strategies to boost resident communication. We’ll discuss how software like Forerunner can help communities pull together disparate datasets and mobilize information for property-specific outreach to provide smarter resources to a variety of stakeholders. it’ll explore how incorporating digital workflows into outreach can ensure faster response time, better compliance enforcement, and stronger data continuity. The presentation will also include suggestions on how other communities might be able to leverage data to strengthen their floodplain management programs.

Keywords: floodplain management, flood response, flood risk adaptation, flood protection - products and processes, flood risk assessment and recovery, innovative approaches

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Authors: Asawari Ajay Avhad

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model designed to predict the complex interactions within natural and human-altered watersheds. This research applies the SWAT model to the Ulhas River basin, a small watershed undergoing urbanization and characterized by bowl-like topography. Three simulation scenarios (LC17, LC22, and LC27) are investigated, each representing different land use and land cover (LULC) configurations, to assess the impact of urbanization on runoff. The LULC for the year 2027 is generated using the MOLUSCE Plugin of QGIS, incorporating various spatial factors such as DEM, Distance from Road, Distance from River, Slope, and distance from settlements. Future climate data is simulated within the SWAT model using historical data spanning 30 years. A susceptibility map for runoff across the basin is created, classifying runoff into five susceptibility levels ranging from very low to very high. Sub-basins corresponding to major urban settlements are identified as highly susceptible to runoff. With consideration of future climate projections, a slight increase in runoff is forecasted. The reliability of the methodology was validated through the identification of sub-basins known for experiencing severe flood events, which were determined to be highly susceptible to runoff. The susceptibility map successfully pinpointed these sub-basins with a track record of extreme flood occurrences, thus reinforcing the credibility of the assessment methodology. This study suggests that the methodology employed could serve as a valuable tool in flood management planning.

Keywords: future land use impact, flood management, run off prediction, ArcSWAT

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Authors: Haluk Eren, Ümit Çelik

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Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to attract intense interest. UAVs started to use for many different applications from military to civilian use. Some online retailer and logistics companies are testing the UAV delivery. UAVs have great potentials to reduce cost and time of deliveries and responding to emergencies in a short time. Despite these great positive sides, just a few works have been done for routing of UAVs for package deliveries. As known, transportation of goods from one place to another may have many hazards on delivery route due to falling hazards that can be exemplified as ground objects or air obstacles. This situation refers to wide-range insurance concept. For this reason, deliveries that are made with drones get into the scope of shipping insurance. On the other hand, air traffic was taken into account in the absence of unmanned aerial vehicle. But now, it has been a reality for aerial fields. In this study, the main goal is to conduct risk analysis of package delivery services using drone, based on delivery routes.

Keywords: aerial package delivery, insurance estimation, territory risk map, unmanned aerial vehicle, route risk estimation, drone risk assessment, drone package delivery

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Authors: C. Li, G. Coates, N. Johnson, M. Mc Guinness

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In the UK, flooding is responsible for significant losses to the economy due to the impact on businesses, the vast majority of which are Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Businesses of this nature tend to lack formal plans to aid their response to and recovery from disruptive events such as flooding. This paper reports on work on how an agent-based model (ABM) is being developed based on interview data gathered from SMEs at-risk of flooding and/or have direct experience of flooding. The ABM will enable simulations to be performed allowing investigations of different response strategies which SMEs may employ to lessen the impact of flooding, thus strengthening their resilience.

Keywords: ABM, flood response, SMEs, business continuity

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Authors: Esma Birisci, Ronald McGarvey

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One of the common problems in food service industry is demand uncertainty. This research presents a multi-criteria optimization approach to identify the efficient frontier of points lying between the minimum-waste and minimum-shortfall solutions within uncertain demand environment. It also addresses correlation across demands for items (e.g., hamburgers are often demanded with french fries). Reducing overproduction food waste (and its corresponding environmental impacts) and an aversion to shortfalls (leave some customer hungry) need to consider as two contradictory objectives in an all-you-care-to-eat environment food service operation. We identify optimal production adjustments relative to demand forecasts, demand thresholds for utilization of leftovers, and percentages of demand to be satisfied by leftovers, considering two alternative metrics for overproduction waste: mass; and greenhouse gas emissions. Demand uncertainty and demand correlations are addressed using a kernel density estimation approach. A statistical analysis of the changes in decision variable values across each of the efficient frontiers can then be performed to identify the key variables that could be modified to reduce the amount of wasted food at minimal increase in shortfalls. We illustrate our approach with an application to empirical data from Campus Dining Services operations at the University of Missouri.

Keywords: environmental studies, food waste, production planning, uncertain and correlated demand

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

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Travel demand forecasting including four travel choices, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment constructs the core of transportation planning. In its current application, travel demand forecasting has associated with three important issues, i.e., interface inconsistencies among four travel choices, inefficiency of commonly used solution algorithms, and undesirable multiple path solutions. In this paper, each of the three issues is extensively elaborated. An ideal unified framework for the combined model consisting of the four travel choices and variable demand functions is also suggested. Then, a few remarks are provided in the end of the paper.

Keywords: travel choices, B algorithm, entropy maximization, dynamic traffic assignment

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Authors: Kasman, Darmawansyah, Alimin Maidin, Amran Razak

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Background: In decentralization, advocacy is needed to increase the health budget in Parepare District. One of the advocacy methods recommended by the World Bank is the economic loss approach. Methods: This research is observational in the field of health economics that contributes directly to the magnitude of the economic loss of the community and the government and provides advocacy to the executive and legislative to see the harm it causes. Results: The research results show the amount of direct cost, which consists of household expenditure for transport Rp.295,865,500. Indirect Cost of YLD of Rp.14.688.000, and YLL of Rp.28.986.336.00, so the amount of DALY is Rp.43.674.336.000. The total economic loss of Rp.43.970.201.500. These huge economic losses can be prevented by increasing the allocation of health budgets for promotive and preventive efforts and expanding the coverage of health insurance for the community. Conclusion: There is a need to advocate the executive and legislative about the importance of guarantee on public health financing by conducting studies in terms of economic losses so that all strategic alliances believe that health is an investment.

Keywords: advocacy, economic lost, health insurance, economic losses

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Authors: Liang Weichien

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Without adequate information and mitigation plan for natural disaster, the risk to urban populated areas will increase in the future as populations grow, especially in Taiwan. Taiwan is recognized as the world's high-risk areas, where an average of 5.7 times of floods occur per year should seek to strengthen coherence and consensus in how cities can plan for flood and climate change. Therefore, this study aims at understanding the vulnerability to flooding in Taipei city, Taiwan, by creating indicators and calculating the vulnerability of each study units. The indicators were grouped into sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on the definition of vulnerability of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The indicators were weighted by using Principal Component Analysis. However, current researches were based on the assumption that the composition and influence of the indicators were the same in different areas. This disregarded spatial correlation that might result in inaccurate explanation on local vulnerability. The study used Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis by adding geographic weighting matrix as weighting to get the different main flood impact characteristic in different areas. Cross Validation Method and Akaike Information Criterion were used to decide bandwidth and Gaussian Pattern as the bandwidth weight scheme. The ultimate outcome can be used for the reduction of damage potential by integrating the outputs into local mitigation plan and urban planning.

Keywords: flood vulnerability, geographically weighted principal components analysis, GWPCA, highly urbanized area, spatial correlation

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Authors: Dinamarie Fonzone

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Employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) strategic decision-making processes rely on financial analysis to guide leadership in choosing plans that will produce optimal organizational spending outcomes. These financial decision-making methods have not abated ESI costs. Previously unrecognized external social determinants, the impact on ESI plan spending, and other organizational strategies are emerging and are important considerations for organizational decision-makers and change management practitioners. The purpose of thisstudy is to examine the relationship between the social determinants of health (SDoH), employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) plans, andthe unintended consequence of health inequity. A quantitative research design using selectemployee records from an existing employer human capital management database will be analyzed. Statistical regressionmethods will be used to study the relationships between certainSDoH (employee income, neighborhood geographic living area, and health care access) and health plan utilization, cost, and chronic disease prevalence. The discussion will include an application of the social gradient of health theory to the study findings, organizational transformation through changes in ESI decision-making mental models, and the connection of ESI health inequity to organizational development and changediversity, equity, and inclusion strategies.

Keywords: employer-sponsored health insurance, social determinants of health, health inequity, mental models, organizational development, organizational change, social gradient of health theory

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Authors: Liu Fangxin, Zhao Jijun

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Nowadays, China and the world are facing the same problems of flooding, city waterlogging and other environment issues. Throughout history, China had many excellent experiences dealing with the flood, and can be used as a significant reference for contemporary urban construction. In view of this, the research used the method of literature analysis to find out the main water storage measures in ancient cities, including reservoir storage and pond water storage. And it used the case study method to introduce the historical evolution, engineering measures and landscape design of 4 typical ancient Chinese cities in details. Then we found the pond and the reservoir were the main infrastructures for the ancient Chinese city to avoid the waterlogging and flood. At last this paper summed up the historical experience of Chinese traditional water storage and made conclusions that the establishment of a reasonable green water storage facilities could be used to solve today's rain and flood problems, and hoped to give some enlightenment of stormwater management to our modern city.

Keywords: ancient Chinese cities, water storage project, Chinese classical gardening, stormwater management, green facilities

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Authors: Zulkifli Yusop

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The severity of December 2014 flood on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia has raised concern over the adequacy of existing land use practices and policies. This article assesses flood responses to selective logging, plantation establishment (oil palm and rubber) and their subsequent management regimes. The hydrological impacts were evaluated on two levels: on-site (mostly in the upstream) and off-site to reflect the cumulative impact at downstream. Results of experimental catchment studies suggest that on-site impact of flood could be kept to a minimum when selecting logging strictly adhere to the existing guidelines. However, increases in flood potential and sedimentation rate were observed with logging intensity and slope steepness. Forest conversion to plantation show the highest impacts. Except on the heavily compacted surfaces, the ground revegetation is usually rapid within two years upon the cessation of the logging operation. The hydrological impacts of plantation opening and replanting could be significantly reduced once the cover crop has fully established which normally takes between three to six months after sowing. However, as oil palms become taller and the canopy gets closer, the cover crop tends to die off due to light competition, and its protecting function gradually diminishes. The exposed soil is further compacted by harvesting machinery which subsequently leads to greater overland flow and erosion rates. As such, the hydrological properties of matured oil palm plantations are generally poorer than in young plantation. In hilly area, the undergrowth in rubber plantation is usually denser compared to under oil palm. The soil under rubber trees is also less compacted as latex collection is done manually. By considering the cumulative effects of land-use over space and time, selective logging seems to pose the least impact on flood potential, followed by planting rubber for latex, oil palm and Latex Timber Clone (LTC). The cumulative hydrological impact of LTC plantation is the most severe because of its shortest replanting rotation (12 to 15 years) compared to oil palm (25 years) and rubber for latex (35 years). Furthermore, the areas gazetted for LTC are mostly located on steeper slopes which are more susceptible to landslide and erosion. Forest has limited capability to store excess rainfall and is only effective in attenuating regular floods. Once the hydrologic storage is exceeded, the excess rainfall will appear as flood water. Therefore, for big floods, rainfall regime has a much bigger influence than land use.

Keywords: selective logging, plantation, extreme rainfall, debris flow

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Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi

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Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.

Keywords: disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand

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Authors: Asanga Gunawansa, Shenella Fonseka

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On-demand bonds, also known as unconditional bonds, are commonplace in the construction industry as a means of safeguarding the employer from any potential non-performance by a contractor. On-demand bonds may be obtained from commercial banks, and they serve as an undertaking by the issuing bank to honour payment on demand without questioning and/or considering any dispute between the employer and the contractor in relation to the underlying contract. Thus, whether or not a breach had occurred under the underlying contract, which triggers the demand for encashment by the employer, is not a question the bank needs to be concerned with. As a result, an unconditional bond allows the beneficiary to claim the money almost without any condition. Thus, an unconditional bond is as good as cash-in-hand. In the past, establishing fraud on the part of the employer, of which the bank had knowledge, was the only ground on which a bank could dishonour a claim made under an on-demand bond. However, recent jurisprudence in common law countries shows that courts are beginning to consider unconscionable conduct on the part of the employer in claiming under an on-demand bond as a ground that contractors could rely on the prevent the banks from honouring such claims. This has created uncertainty in connection with on-demand bonds and their liquidity. This paper analyzes recent judicial decisions in four common law jurisdictions, namely, England, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Sri Lanka, to identify the scope of using the concept of “unconscionability” as a ground for preventing unreasonable claims for encashment of on-demand bonds. The objective of this paper is to argue that on-demand bonds have lost their effectiveness as “cash-in-hand” and that this is, in fact, an advantage and not an impediment to international commerce, as the purpose of such bonds should not be to provide for illegal and unconscionable conduct by the beneficiaries.

Keywords: fraud, performance guarantees, on-demand bonds, unconscionability

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Authors: Titir Bhattacharya, Tanika Chakraborty, Prabal K. De

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Maternal and child health continue to be a significant policy focus in developing countries, including India. An emerging model in health care is the creation of public and private partnerships. Since the construction of physical infrastructure is costly, governments at various levels have tried to implement social health insurance schemes where a trust calculates insurance premiums and medical payments. Typically, qualifying families get full subsidization of the premium and get access to private hospitals, in addition to low cost public hospitals, for their tertiary care needs. We analyze one such pioneering social insurance scheme in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh (AP). The Rajiv Aarogyasri program (RA) was introduced by the Government of AP on a pilot basis in 2007 and implemented in 2008. In this paper, we first examine the extent to which access to reproductive health care changed. For example, the RA scheme reimburses hospital deliveries leading us to expect an increase in institutional deliveries, particularly in private hospitals. Second, we expect an increase in institutional deliveries to also improve child health outcomes. Hence, we estimate if the program improved infant and child mortality. We use District Level Health Survey data to create annual birth cohorts from 2000-2015. Since AP was the only state in which such a state insurance program was implemented, the neighboring states constituted a plausible control group. Combined with the policy timing, and the year of birth, we employ a difference-indifference strategy to identify the effects of RA on the residents of AP. We perform several checks against threats to identification, including testing for pre-treatment trends between the treatment and control states. We find that the policy significantly lowered infant and child mortality in AP. We also find that deliveries in private hospitals increased, and government hospitals decreased, showing a substitution effect of the relative price change. Finally, as expected, out-of-pocket costs declined for the treatment group. However, we do not find any significant effects for usual preventive care such as vaccination, showing that benefits of insurance schemes targeted at the tertiary level may not trickle down to the primary care level.

Keywords: public health insurance, maternal and child health, public-private choice

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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Authors: Jubaida Gulshan Ara, Zebun Nasreen Ahmed

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Urban flood and drought has been a major problem of Dhaka city, particularly in recent years. Continuous increase of the city built up area, and limiting rainwater infiltration zone, are thought to be the main causes of the problem. Proper rainwater management, even at the individual plot level, might bring significant improvement in this regard. As residential use pattern occupies a significant portion of the city surface, the scope of rainwater harvesting (RWH) in residential buildings can be investigated. This paper reports on a research which explored the scope of rainwater harvesting in residential plots, with multifamily apartment buildings, in Dhaka city. The research investigated the basics of RWH, contextual information, i.e., hydro-geological, meteorological data of Dhaka city and the rules and legislations for residential building construction. The study also explored contemporary rainwater harvesting practices in the local and international contexts. On the basis of theoretical understanding, 21 sample case-studies, in different phases of construction, were selected from seven different categories of plot sizes, in different residential areas of Dhaka city. Primary data from the 21 case-study buildings were collected from a physical survey, from design drawings, accompanied by a questionnaire survey. All necessary secondary data were gathered from published and other relevant sources. Collected primary and secondary data were used to calculate and analyze the RWH needs for each case study, based on the theoretical understanding. The main findings have been compiled and compared, to observe residential development trends with regards to building rainwater harvesting system. The study has found that, in ‘Multifamily Apartment Building’ of Dhaka city, storage, and recharge structure size for rainwater harvesting, increases along with occupants’ number, and with the increasing size of the plot. Hence, demand vs. supply ratio remains almost the same for different sizes of plots, and consequently, the size of the storage structure increases significantly, in large-scale plots. It has been found that rainwater can meet only 12%-30% of the total restricted water demand of these residential buildings of Dhaka city. Therefore, artificial groundwater recharge might be the more suitable option for RWH, than storage. The study came up with this conclusion that, in multifamily residential apartments of Dhaka city, artificial groundwater recharge might be the more suitable option for RWH, than storing the rainwater on site.

Keywords: Dhaka city, rainwater harvesting, residential plots, urban flood

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Authors: Pedram Saadati, Zahra Nazari

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Anticipating and identifying future opportunities and challenges facing industry activists for the emergence and entry of new knowledge and technologies of personal financial planning, and providing practical solutions is one of the goals of this research. For this purpose, a future research tool based on receiving opinions from the main players of the insurance industry has been used. The research method in this study was in 4 stages; including 1- a survey of the specialist salesforce of life insurance in order to identify the variables 2- the ranking of the variables by experts selected by a researcher-made questionnaire 3- holding a panel of experts with the aim of understanding the mutual effects of the variables and 4- statistical analyzes of the mutual effects matrix in Mick Mac software is done. The integrated analysis of influencing variables in the future has been done with the method of Structural Analysis, which is one of the efficient and innovative methods of future research. A list of opportunities and challenges was identified through a survey of best-selling life insurance representatives who were selected by snowball sampling. In order to prioritize and identify the most important issues, all the issues raised were sent to selected experts who were selected theoretically through a researcher-made questionnaire. The respondents determined the importance of 36 variables through scoring, so that the prioritization of opportunity and challenge variables can be determined. 8 of the variables identified in the first stage were removed by selected experts, and finally, the number of variables that could be examined in the third stage became 28 variables, which, in order to facilitate the examination, were divided into 6 categories, respectively, 11 variables of organization and management. Marketing and sales 7 cases, social and cultural 6 cases, technological 2 cases, rebranding 1 case and insurance 1 case were divided. The reliability of the researcher-made questionnaire was confirmed with the Cronbach's alpha test value of 0.96. In the third stage, by forming a panel consisting of 5 insurance industry experts, the consensus of their opinions about the influence of factors on each other and the ranking of variables was entered into the matrix. The matrix included the interrelationships of 28 variables, which were investigated using the structural analysis method. By analyzing the data obtained from the matrix by Mic Mac software, the findings of the research indicate that the categories of "correct training in the use of the software, the weakness of the technology of insurance companies in personalizing products, using the approach of equipping the customer, and honesty in declaring no need Customer to Insurance", the most important challenges of the influencer and the categories of "salesforce equipping approach, product personalization based on customer needs assessment, customer's pleasant experience of being consulted with consulting robots, business improvement of the insurance company due to the use of these tools, increasing the efficiency of the issuance process and optimal customer purchase" were identified as the most important opportunities for influence.

Keywords: personal financial planning, wealth management, advisor robots, life insurance, digital transformation

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Authors: Abhisek Chakrabarty, Subhraprakash Mandal

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Flash flood is one of the catastrophic natural hazards in the mountainous region of India. The recent flood in the Mandakini River in Kedarnath (14-17th June, 2013) is a classic example of flash floods that devastated Uttarakhand by killing thousands of people.The disaster was an integrated effect of high intensityrainfall, sudden breach of Chorabari Lake and very steep topography. Every year in Himalayan Region flash flood occur due to intense rainfall over a short period of time, cloud burst, glacial lake outburst and collapse of artificial check dam that cause high flow of river water. In Sikkim-Derjeeling Himalaya one of the probable flash flood occurrence zone is Teesta Watershed. The Teesta River is a right tributary of the Brahmaputra with draining mountain area of approximately 8600 Sq. km. It originates in the Pauhunri massif (7127 m). The total length of the mountain section of the river amounts to 182 km. The Teesta is characterized by a complex hydrological regime. The river is fed not only by precipitation, but also by melting glaciers and snow as well as groundwater. The present study describes an attempt to model surface runoff in upper Teesta basin, which is directly related to catastrophic flood events, by creating a system based on GIS technology. The main object was to construct a direct unit hydrograph for an excess rainfall by estimating the stream flow response at the outlet of a watershed. Specifically, the methodology was based on the creation of a spatial database in GIS environment and on data editing. Moreover, rainfall time-series data collected from Indian Meteorological Department and they were processed in order to calculate flow time and the runoff volume. Apart from the meteorological data, background data such as topography, drainage network, land cover and geological data were also collected. Clipping the watershed from the entire area and the streamline generation for Teesta watershed were done and cross-sectional profiles plotted across the river at various locations from Aster DEM data using the ERDAS IMAGINE 9.0 and Arc GIS 10.0 software. The analysis of different hydraulic model to detect flash flood probability ware done using HEC-RAS, Flow-2D, HEC-HMS Software, which were of great importance in order to achieve the final result. With an input rainfall intensity above 400 mm per day for three days the flood runoff simulation models shows outbursts of lakes and check dam individually or in combination with run-off causing severe damage to the downstream settlements. Model output shows that 313 Sq. km area were found to be most vulnerable to flash flood includes Melli, Jourthang, Chungthang, and Lachung and 655sq. km. as moderately vulnerable includes Rangpo,Yathang, Dambung,Bardang, Singtam, Teesta Bazarand Thangu Valley. The model was validated by inserting the rain fall data of a flood event took place in August 1968, and 78% of the actual area flooded reflected in the output of the model. Lastly preventive and curative measures were suggested to reduce the losses by probable flash flood event.

Keywords: flash flood, GIS, runoff, simulation model, Teesta river basin

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Authors: Jiayuan Wu. Lu Hu

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With the development of the sharing economy and mobile technology, carsharing becomes more popular. In this paper, we focus on the joint optimization of one-way station-based carsharing systems. We model the problem as an integer linear program with six elements: station locations, station capacity, fleet size, initial vehicle allocation, vehicle relocation, and demand selection. A greedy-based heuristic is proposed to address the model. Firstly, initialization based on the location variables relaxation using Gurobi solver is conducted. Then, according to the profit margin and demand satisfaction of each station, the number of stations is downsized iteratively. This method is applied to real data from Chengdu, Sichuan taxi data, and it’s efficient when dealing with a large scale of candidate stations. The result shows that with vehicle relocation and demand selection, the profit and demand satisfaction of carsharing systems are increased.

Keywords: one-way carsharing, location, vehicle relocation, demand selection, greedy algorithm

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Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

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Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

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Authors: Yu-Shan Hsu

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This paper studies a two-sector growth model with a technology of social constant returns and with a utility that features either a zero or a positive income effect on the demand for leisure. The purpose is to investigate how the existence of aggregate instability or equilibrium indeterminacy depends on both the intensity of the income effect on the demand for leisure and the value of the labor supply elasticity. The main finding is that when there is a factor intensity reversal between the private perspective and the social perspective, indeterminacy arises even if the utility has a positive income effect on leisure demand. Moreover, we find that a smaller value of the labor supply elasticity increases the range of the income effect on leisure demand and thus increases the possibility of equilibrium indeterminacy. JEL classification: E3; O41

Keywords: indeterminacy, non-separable preferences, income effect, labor supply elasticity

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Authors: Emmanuel Chinaguh, Kehinde Adeosun

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Nigerians die untimely, with 55.75 years of life expectancy, which is 17.45 below the world average of 73.2 (Worldometer, 2020). This is due, among other factors, to the country's limited access to high-quality healthcare. To increase access to good and affordable healthcare services, the National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA) Bill 2022 – which repealed the National Health Insurance Scheme Act 2004 – was passed into law. Applying Jacob Mey’s (2001) pragmatics act (pract) theory, this study explores how NHIA seeks to actualise these healthcare goals by characterising the general situational prototype or pragmemes and pragmatic acts in institutional communications. Data was sourced from the NHIA operational guidelines, which has 147 pages and four sections, and shared posters on NHIA Nigeria Twitter Handle with 14,200 followers. Digital humanities tools, like AntConc and Voyant, were engaged in the data analysis for text encoding and data visualisation. This study identifies these discourse tokens in the data: advertisement and programmes, standards and accreditation, records and information, and offences and penalties. Advertisement and programmes pract facilitating, propagating, prospecting, advising and informing; standards and accreditation, and records and information pract stating, informing and instructing; and offences and penalties pract stating and sanctioning. These practs combined to advance the goals of affordable care and universal accessibility to quality healthcare services. The pragmatic acts were marked by these pragmatic tools: shared situational knowledge (SSK), relevance (REL), reference (REF) and inference (INF). This paper adds to the understanding of health insurance discourse in Nigeria as a mediated social practice that promotes the health of Nigerians.

Keywords: affordable care, NHIA, Nigeria’s health insurance discourse, pragmatic acts.

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Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Israa Abu Rumman

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This paper modeled sales history archived from 2012 to 2015 bulked in monthly bins for five products for a medical supply company in Jordan. The sales forecasts and extracted consistent patterns in the sales demand history from the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system were used to predict future forecasting and generate sales demand forecasting using time series analysis statistical technique called Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This was used to model and estimate realistic sales demand patterns and predict future forecasting to decide the best models for five products. Analysis revealed that the current replenishment system indicated inventory overstocking.

Keywords: ARIMA models, sales demand forecasting, time series, R code

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Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Tuan Ab Rashid Bin Tuan Abdullah, Tahira Yasmin

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It is very important for electric utility to determine dominant sectors which have more impacts on electricity consumption in national economy system. The aim of this paper is to examine the electricity demand multipliers in Malaysia for (2005-2014) period. Malaysian Input-output tables, 2005 and 2010 are used. Besides, a new concept, electricity demand multiplier (EDM), is presented to identify key sectors imposing great impacts on electricity demand quantitatively. In order to testify the effectiveness of the Malaysian energy policies, it notes that there is fluctuation of the ranking sectors between 2005 and 2010. This could be reflected that there is efficiency with pace of development in Malaysia. This can be good indication for decision makers for designing future energy policies.

Keywords: input-output model, demand multipliers, electricity, key sectors, Malaysia

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Authors: Natasha Correa Vitória Bandeira, Lais Cordeiro Soares, Claudineia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi

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The intense rain event that occurred between February 16 and 18, 2018, in the city of Barcarena in Pará, located in the North region of Brazil, demonstrates the importance of analyzing this type of event. The metropolitan mesoregion of Belem was severely punished by rains much above the averages normally expected for that time of year; this phenomenon affected, in addition to the capital, the municipalities of Barcarena, Murucupi and Muruçambá. Resulting in a great flood in the rivers of the region, whose basins were affected with great intensity of precipitation, causing concern for the local population because in this region, there are located companies that accumulate ore tailings, and in this specific case, the dam of any of these companies, leaching the ore to the water bodies of the Murucupi River Basin. This article aims to characterize this phenomenon through a special analysis of the distribution of rainfall, using data from atmospheric soundings, satellite images, radar images and data from the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), in addition to rainfall stations located in the study region. The results of the work demonstrated a dissociation between the data measured in the meteorological stations and the other forms of analysis of this extreme event. Monitoring carried out solely on the basis of data from pluviometric stations is not sufficient for monitoring and/or diagnosing extreme weather events, and investment by the competent bodies is important to install a larger network of pluviometric stations sufficient to meet the demand in a given region.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, great flood, GPCP, ore dam

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Authors: Pallavi Kishore, Mariam Aslam

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The sharp decline in oil prices that started in 2014 affected most economies in the world either positively or negatively. In some economies, particularly the oil exporting countries, the effects were felt immediately. The Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC henceforth) countries are oil and gas-dependent with the largest oil reserves in the world. UAE (United Arab Emirates) has been striving to diversify away from oil and expects higher non-oil growth in 2018. These two factors, falling oil prices and the economy strategizing away from oil dependence, make a compelling case to study the financial performance of various sectors in the economy. Among other sectors, the insurance sector is widely recognized as an important indicator of the health of the economy. An expanding population, surge in construction and infrastructure, increased life expectancy, greater expenditure on automobiles and other luxury goods translate to a booming insurance sector. A slow-down of the insurance sector, on the other hand, may indicate a general slow-down in the economy. Therefore, a study on the insurance sector will help understand the general nature of the current economy. This study involves calculations and comparisons of ratios pre and post the fall in oil prices in the insurance sector in the UAE. A sample of 33 companies listed on the official stock exchanges of UAE-Dubai Financial Market and Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange were collected and empirical analysis employed to study the financial performance pre and post fall in oil prices. Ratios were calculated in 5 categories: Profitability, Liquidity, Leverage, Efficiency, and Investment. The means pre- and post-fall are compared to conclude that the profitability ratios including ROSF (Return on Shareholder Funds), ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) and NPM (Net Profit Margin) have all taken a hit. Parametric tests, including paired t-test, concludes that while the fall in profitability ratios is statistically significant, the other ratios have been quite stable in the period. The efficiency, liquidity, gearing and investment ratios have not been severely affected by the fall in oil prices. This may be due to the implementation of stronger regulatory policies and is a testimony to the diversification into the non-oil economy. The regulatory authorities can use the findings of this study to ensure transparency in revealing financial information to the public and employ policies that will help further the health of the economy. The study will also help understand which areas within the sector could benefit from more regulations.

Keywords: UAE, insurance sector, ratio analysis, oil price, profitability, liquidity, gearing, investment, efficiency

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Authors: Ioana Neamtu

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This paper investigates the potential for demand-side management for the system price in the Nordic electricity market and the price effects of introducing wind-power into the system. The model proposed accounts for the micro-structure of the Nordic electricity market by modeling each hour individually, while still accounting for the relationship between the hours within a day. This flexibility allows us to explore the differences between peak and shoulder demand hours. Preliminary results show potential for demand response management, as indicated by the price elasticity of demand as well as a small but statistically significant decrease in price, given by the wind power penetration. Moreover, our study shows that these effects are stronger during day-time and peak hours,compared to night-time and shoulder hours.

Keywords: structural model, GMM estimation, system of equations, electricity market

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Lorifel Hinay

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Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity in the Philippines over the years resulting to detrimental impacts in school properties and lives of learners. The topography of the Province of Southern Leyte is a hotspot for inevitable natural disaster-causing hazards that could affect schools, cripple the educational system and cause environmental, cultural and social detrimental impacts making Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) an indispensable platform to keep learners safe, secure and resilient. This study determined the schools’ vulnerability and risk assessment to earthquake, landslide, flood, storm surge and tsunami hazards, and its relationship to status in disaster preparedness. Descriptive-correlational research design was used where the respondents were School DRRM Coordinators/School Administrators and Municipal DRRM Officers. It was found that schools’ vulnerability and risk were high in landslide, medium in earthquake, and low in flood, storm surge and tsunami. Though schools were moderately prepared in disasters across all hazards, they were less accomplished in group organization and property security. Less planning preparation and less implementation of DRRM measures were observed in schools highly at risk of earthquake and landslide. Also, schools vulnerable to landslide and flood have very high property security. Topography and location greatly contributed to schools’ vulnerability to hazards, thus, a school-based disaster preparedness plan is hoped to help ensure that hazard-exposed schools can build a culture of safety, disaster resiliency and education continuity.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction and management, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm surge, tsunami

Procedia PDF Downloads 94