Search results for: features engineering methods for forecasting

Authors: Andre Wittenborn, Jarek Krajewski

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Trauma-related sadness in speech can alter the voice in several ways. The generation of non-linear aerodynamic phenomena within the vocal tract is crucial when analyzing trauma-influenced speech production. They include non-laminar flow and formation of jets rather than well-behaved laminar flow aspects. Especially state-space reconstruction methods based on chaotic dynamics and fractal theory have been suggested to describe these aerodynamic turbulence-related phenomena of the speech production system. To extract the non-linear properties of the speech signal, we used the time delay embedding method to reconstruct from a scalar time series (reconstructed phase space, RPS). This approach results in the extraction of 7238 Features per .wav file (N= 47, 32 m, 15 f). The speech material was prompted by telling about autobiographical related sadness-inducing experiences (sampling rate 16 kHz, 8-bit resolution). After combining these features in a support vector machine based machine learning approach (leave-one-sample out validation), we achieved a correlation of r = .41 with the well-established, self-report ground truth measure (RATS) of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

Keywords: non-linear dynamics features, post traumatic stress disorder, reconstructed phase space, support vector machine

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Authors: Sol Girouard, Zona Kostic

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A home is often the largest and most expensive purchase a person makes. Whether the decision leads to a successful outcome will be determined by a combination of critical factors. In this paper, we propose a method that efficiently handles all the factors in residential real estate and performs predictions given a feature space with high dimensionality while controlling for overfitting. The proposed method was built on gradient descent and boosting algorithms and uses a mixed optimizing technique to improve the prediction power. Usually, a single model cannot handle all the cases thus our approach builds multiple models based on different subsets of the predictors. The algorithm was tested on 3 million homes across the U.S., and the experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of this approach by outperforming techniques currently used in forecasting prices. With everyday changes on the real estate market, our proposed algorithm capitalizes from new events allowing more efficient predictions.

Keywords: real estate prediction, gradient descent, boosting, ensemble methods, active learning, training

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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Authors: Xiang Yu, Chuntao Feng, Lu Yang, Meiyang Song, Wenhao Zhou

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The existing two-dimensional micro-Doppler features extraction ignores the correlation information between the spatial and temporal dimension features. For the range-Doppler map, the time dimension is introduced, and a frequency modulation continuous wave (FMCW) radar human fall detection algorithm based on time-varying range-Doppler features is proposed. Firstly, the range-Doppler sequence maps are generated from the echo signals of the continuous motion of the human body collected by the radar. Then the three-dimensional data cube composed of multiple frames of range-Doppler maps is input into the three-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (3D CNN). The spatial and temporal features of time-varying range-Doppler are extracted by the convolution layer and pool layer at the same time. Finally, the extracted spatial and temporal features are input into the fully connected layer for classification. The experimental results show that the proposed fall detection algorithm has a detection accuracy of 95.66%.

Keywords: FMCW radar, fall detection, 3D CNN, time-varying range-doppler features

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Authors: Christine Winberg, James Garraway

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Many key university documents, such as vision and mission statements and strategic plans, are aspirational and future-oriented. There is a wide range of future-oriented methods that are used in planning applications, ranging from mathematical modelling to expert opinions. Many of these methods have limitations, and planners using these tools might, for example, make the technical-rational assumption that their plans will unfold in a logical and inevitable fashion, thus underestimating the many complex forces that are at play in planning for an unknown future. This is the issue that this study addresses. The overall project aim was to assist a new university of technology in developing appropriate responses to its social responsibility, graduate employability and research missions in its strategic plan. The specific research question guiding the research activities and approach was: how might the use of innovative future-oriented planning tools enable or constrain a strategic planning process? The research objective was to engage collaborating groups in the use of an innovative tool to develop and assess future scenarios, for the purpose of developing deeper understandings of possible futures and their challenges. The scenario planning tool chosen was ‘fictive scripting’, an analytical technique derived from Technology Forecasting and Innovation Studies. Fictive scripts are future projections that also take into account the present shape of the world and current developments. The process thus began with a critical diagnosis of the present, highlighting its tensions and frictions. The collaborative groups then developed fictive scripts, each group producing a future scenario that foregrounded different institutional missions, their implications and possible consequences. The scripts were analyzed with a view to identifying their potential contribution to the university’s strategic planning exercise. The unfolding fictive scripts revealed a number of insights in terms of unexpected benefits, unexpected challenges, and unexpected consequences. These insights were not evident in previous strategic planning exercises. The contribution that this study offers is to show how better choices can be made and potential pitfalls avoided through a systematic foresight exercise. When universities develop strategic planning documents, they are looking into the future. In this paper it is argued that the use of appropriate tools for future-oriented exercises, can help planners to understand more fully what achieving desired outcomes might entail, what challenges might be encountered, and what unexpected consequences might ensue.

Keywords: fictive scripts, scenarios, strategic planning, technological forecasting

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Authors: Birmohan Singh, V.K.Jain

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Computer aided diagnosis systems provide vital opinion to radiologists in the detection of early signs of breast cancer from mammogram images. Masses and microcalcifications, architectural distortions are the major abnormalities. In this paper, a computer aided diagnosis system has been proposed for distinguishing abnormal mammograms with architectural distortion from normal mammogram. Four types of texture features GLCM texture, GLRLM texture, fractal texture and spectral texture features for the regions of suspicion are extracted. Support Vector Machine has been used as classifier in this study. The proposed system yielded an overall sensitivity of 96.47% and accuracy of 96% for the detection of abnormalities with mammogram images collected from Digital Database for Screening Mammography (DDSM) database.

Keywords: architecture distortion, mammograms, GLCM texture features, GLRLM texture features, support vector machine classifier

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Authors: Parisa Mansour

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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was discovered and rapidly spread to various countries around the world since the end of 2019. Computed tomography (CT) images have been used as an important alternative to the time-consuming RT. PCR test. However, manual segmentation of CT images alone is a major challenge as the number of suspected cases increases. Thus, accurate and automatic segmentation of COVID-19 infections is urgently needed. Because the imaging features of the COVID-19 infection are different and similar to the background, existing medical image segmentation methods cannot achieve satisfactory performance. In this work, we try to build a deep convolutional neural network adapted for the segmentation of chest CT images with COVID-19 infections. First, we maintain a large and novel chest CT image database containing 165,667 annotated chest CT images from 861 patients with confirmed COVID-19. Inspired by the observation that the boundary of an infected lung can be improved by global intensity adjustment, we introduce a feature variable block into the proposed deep CNN, which adjusts the global features of features to segment the COVID-19 infection. The proposed PV array can effectively and adaptively improve the performance of functions in different cases. We combine features of different scales by proposing a progressive atrocious space pyramid fusion scheme to deal with advanced infection regions with various aspects and shapes. We conducted experiments on data collected in China and Germany and showed that the proposed deep CNN can effectively produce impressive performance.

Keywords: chest, COVID-19, chest Image, coronavirus, CT image, chest CT

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Authors: Lourenco Camnahas, Eileen Willis, Greg Fisher, Jessie Gunson, Pascale Dettwiller, Charlene Thornton

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Stock-out of pharmaceuticals is a common issue at all level of health services in Timor-Leste, a small post-conflict country. This lead to the research questions: what are the current methods used to quantify pharmaceutical supplies; what factors contribute to the on-going pharmaceutical stock-out? The study examined factors that influence the pharmaceutical supply chain system. Methodology: Privett and Goncalvez dependency model has been adopted for the design of the qualitative interviews. The model examines pharmaceutical supply chain management at three management levels: management of individual pharmaceutical items, health facilities, and health systems. The interviews were conducted in order to collect information on inventory management, logistics management information system (LMIS) and the provision of pharmaceuticals. Andersen' behavioural model for healthcare utilization also informed the interview schedule, specifically factors linked to environment (healthcare system and external environment) and the population (enabling factors). Forty health professionals (bureaucrats, clinicians) and six senior officers from a United Nations Agency, a global multilateral agency and a local non-governmental organization were interviewed on their perceptions of factors (healthcare system/supply chain and wider environment) impacting on stock out. Additionally, policy documents for the entire healthcare system, along with population data were collected. Findings: An analysis using Pozzebon’s critical interpretation identified a range of difficulties within the system from poor coordination to failure to adhere to policy guidelines along with major difficulties with inventory management, quantification, forecasting, and budgetary constraints. Weak logistics management information system, lack of capacity in inventory management, monitoring and supervision are additional organizational factors that also contributed to the issue. There were various methods of quantification of pharmaceuticals applied in the government sector, and non-governmental organizations. Lack of reliable data is one of the major problems in the pharmaceutical provision. Global Fund has the best quantification methods fed by consumption data and malaria cases. There are other issues that worsen stock-out: political intervention, work ethic and basic infrastructure such as unreliable internet connectivity. Major issues impacting on pharmaceutical quantification have been identified. However, current data collection identified limitations within the Andersen model; specifically, a failure to take account of predictors in the healthcare system and the environment (culture/politics/social. The next step is to (a) compare models used by three non-governmental agencies with the government model; (b) to run the Andersen explanatory model for pharmaceutical expenditure for 2 to 5 drug items used by these three development partners in order to see how it correlates with the present model in terms of quantification and forecasting the needs; (c) to repeat objectives (a) and (b) using the government model; (d) to draw a conclusion about the strength.

Keywords: inventory management, pharmaceutical forecasting and quantification, pharmaceutical stock-out, pharmaceutical supply chain management

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Authors: Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnessa Keya, Sharun Khushbu, Sheikh Abujar

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Since the beginning of China's economic reform, trade between the U.S. and China has grown rapidly, and has increased since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. The US imports more than it exports from China, reducing the trade war between China and the U.S. for the 2019 trade deficit, but in 2020, the opposite happens. In international and U.S. trade, Washington launched a full-scale trade war against China in March 2016, which occurred a catastrophic epidemic. The main goal of our study is to measure and predict trade relations between China and the U.S., before and after the arrival of the COVID epidemic. The ML model uses different data as input but has no time dimension that is present in the time series models and is only able to predict the future from previously observed data. The LSTM (a well-known Recurrent Neural Network) model is applied as the best time series model for trading forecasting. We have been able to create a sustainable forecasting system in trade between China and the US by closely monitoring a dataset published by the State Website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2021. Throughout the survey, we provided a 180-day forecast that outlined what would happen to trade between China and the US during COVID-19. In addition, we have illustrated that the LSTM model provides outstanding outcome in time series data analysis rather than RFR and SVR (e.g., both ML models). The study looks at how the current Covid outbreak affects China-US trade. As a comparative study, RMSE transmission rate is calculated for LSTM, RFR and SVR. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given very favorable thoughts in terms of China-US trade on the future export situation.

Keywords: RFR, China-U.S. trade war, SVR, LSTM, deep learning, Covid-19, export value, forecasting, time series analysis

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Authors: Xiaogang Li, Jieqiong Miao

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As for the problem of the grey forecasting model prediction accuracy is low, an improved grey prediction model is put forward. Firstly, use trigonometric function transform the original data sequence in order to improve the smoothness of data , this model called SGM( smoothness of grey prediction model), then combine the improved grey model with support vector machine , and put forward the grey support vector machine model (SGM - SVM).Before the establishment of the model, we use trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation preprocessing data in order to enhance the smoothness of the data and weaken the randomness of the data, then use support vector machine (SVM) to establish a prediction model for pre-processed data and select model parameters using genetic algorithms to obtain the optimum value of the global search. Finally, restore data through the "regressive generate" operation to get forecasting data. In order to prove that the SGM-SVM model is superior to other models, we select the battery life data from calce. The presented model is used to predict life of battery and the predicted result was compared with that of grey model and support vector machines．For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this paper presents root mean square error of this three different models .The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine (SGM-SVM) to predict life is optimal, and the root mean square error is only 3.18%. Keywords: grey forecasting model, trigonometric function, support vector machine, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Keywords: Grey prediction model, trigonometric functions, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

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Authors: Rindra Rantoson, Hichem Nouira, Nabil Anwer, Charyar Mehdi-Souzani

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Multiple measurements by means of various data acquisition systems are generally required to measure the shape of freeform workpieces for accuracy, reliability and holisticity. The obtained data are aligned and fused into a common coordinate system within a registration technique involving coarse and fine registrations. Standardized iterative methods have been established for fine registration such as Iterative Closest Points (ICP) and its variants. For coarse registration, no conventional method has been adopted yet despite a significant number of techniques which have been developed in the literature to supply an automatic rough matching between data sets. Two main issues are addressed in this paper: the coarse registration and the fine registration. For coarse registration, two novel automated methods based on the exploitation of discrete curvatures are presented: an enhanced Hough Transformation (HT) and an improved Ransac Transformation. The use of curvature features in both methods aims to reduce computational cost. For fine registration, a new variant of ICP method is proposed in order to reduce registration error using curvature parameters. A specific distance considering the curvature similarity has been combined with Euclidean distance to define the distance criterion used for correspondences searching. Additionally, the objective function has been improved by combining the point-to-point (P-P) minimization and the point-to-plane (P-Pl) minimization with automatic weights. These ones are determined from the preliminary calculated curvature features at each point of the workpiece surface. The algorithms are applied on simulated and real data performed by a computer tomography (CT) system. The obtained results reveal the benefit of the proposed novel curvature-based registration methods.

Keywords: discrete curvature, RANSAC transformation, hough transformation, coarse registration, ICP variant, point-to-point and point-to-plane minimization combination, computer tomography

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Authors: Ben G. Weber, Michael Mateas

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We present a case-based reasoning technique for selecting build orders in a real-time strategy game. The case retrieval process generalizes features of the game state and selects cases using domain-specific recall methods, which perform exact matching on a subset of the case features. We demonstrate the performance of the technique by implementing it as a component of the integrated agent framework of McCoy and Mateas. Our results demonstrate that the technique outperforms nearest-neighbor retrieval when imperfect information is enforced in a real-time strategy game.

Keywords: case based reasoning, real time strategy systems, requirements elicitation, requirement analyst, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Amira Masood, Zainah Alshouri, Noor Bantan, Samira Kutbi

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Artificial intelligence is continuously becoming more advanced and more widespread and is present in many of our day-to-day lives as a means of assistance in numerous different fields. A growing number of people, companies, and corporations are utilizing Canva and its AI tools as a method of quick and easy media production. Hence, in order to test the integrity of the rapid growth of AI, this paper will explore the usefulness of Canva's advanced design features as well as their accuracy by determining user satisfaction through a survey-based research approach and by investigating whether or not AI is successful enough that it eliminates the need for human alterations.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, canva, features, users, satisfaction

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Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

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The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

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Authors: Tomas Trainys, Algimantas Venckauskas

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Application of biometric features to the cryptography for human identification and authentication is widely studied and promising area of the development of high-reliability cryptosystems. Biometric cryptosystems typically are designed for patterns recognition, which allows biometric data acquisition from an individual, extracts feature sets, compares the feature set against the set stored in the vault and gives a result of the comparison. Preprocessing and fusion of biometric data are the most important phases in generating a feature vector for key generation or authentication. Fusion of biometric features is critical for achieving a higher level of security and prevents from possible spoofing attacks. The paper focuses on the tasks of initial processing and fusion of multiple representations of finger vein modality patterns. These tasks are solved by applying conventional image preprocessing methods and machine learning techniques, Convolutional Neural Network (SVM) method for image segmentation and feature extraction. An article presents a method for generating sets of biometric features from a finger vein network using several instances of the same modality. Extracted features sets were fused at the feature level. The proposed method was tested and compared with the performance and accuracy results of other authors.

Keywords: bio-cryptography, biometrics, cryptographic key generation, data fusion, information security, SVM, pattern recognition, finger vein method.

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Authors: Hussah Alotaishan

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In today’s globally-driven modern cities diverse groups of new visitors face various challenges when attempting to find their desired location if culture and language are barriers. The most common way-showing tools such as directional and identificational signs are the most problematic and their usefulness can be limited or even non-existent. It is argued new methods should be implemented that could support or replace such conventional literacy and language dependent way-finding aids. It has been concluded in recent research studies that local urban features in complex pedestrian spaces are worthy of further study in order to reveal if they do function as way-showing clues. Some researchers propose a more comprehensive approach to the complex perception of buildings, façade design and surface patterns, while some have been questioning whether we necessarily need directional signs or can other methods deliver the same message but in a clearer manner for a wider range of users. This study aimed to test to what extent do existent environmental and urban features through the city center area of Swansea in the UK facilitate the way-finding process of a first time visitor. The three-hour experiment was set to attempt to find 11 visitor attractions ranging from recreational, historical, educational and religious locations. The challenge was attempting to find as many as possible when no prior geographical knowledge of their whereabouts was established. The only clues were 11 pictures representing each of the locations that had been acquired from the city of Swansea official website. An iPhone and a heart-rate tracker wristwatch were used to record the route was taken and stress levels, and take record photographs of destinations or decision-making points throughout the journey. This paper addresses: current limitations in understanding the ways that the physical environment can be intentionally deployed to facilitate pedestrians while finding their way around, without or with a reduction in language dependent signage; investigates visitor perceptions of their surroundings by indicating what urban elements manifested an impact on the way-finding process. The initial findings support the view that building facades and street features, such as width, could facilitate the decision-making process if strategically employed. However, more importantly, the anticipated features of a specific place construed from a promotional picture can also be misleading and create confusion that may lead to getting lost.

Keywords: pedestrian way-finding, environmental features, urban way-showing, environmental affordance

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Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Saeed Ahmadian, Hedie Ashrafi

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Selecting appropriate patients for surgery is one of the main issues in thoracic surgery (TS). Both short-term and long-term risks and benefits of surgery must be considered in the patient selection criteria. There are some limitations in the existing datasets of TS patients because of missing values of attributes and imbalanced distribution of survival classes. In this study, a novel ensemble architecture of deep learning networks is proposed based on stacking different linear and non-linear layers to deal with imbalance datasets. The categorical and numerical features are split using different layers with ability to shrink the unnecessary features. Then, after extracting the insight from the raw features, a novel biased-kernel layer is applied to reinforce the gradient of the minority class and cause the network to be trained better comparing the current methods. Finally, the performance and advantages of our proposed model over the existing models are examined for predicting patient survival after thoracic surgery using a real-life clinical data for lung cancer patients.

Keywords: deep learning, ensemble models, imbalanced classification, lung cancer, TS patient selection

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Authors: Stefania Arguelles Reyes, Octavio José Salcedo Parra, Alberto Acosta López

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This paper presents a web application for the improvement of images through recognition. The web application is based on the analysis of picture-based recognition methods that allow an improvement on the physical appearance of people posting in social networks. The basis relies on the study of tools that can correct or improve some features of the face, with the help of a wide collection of user images taken as reference to build a facial profile. Automatic facial profiling can be achieved with a deeper study of the Object Detection Library. It was possible to improve the initial images with the help of MATLAB and its filtering functions. The user can have a direct interaction with the program and manually adjust his preferences.

Keywords: Matlab, make up, recognition methods, web application

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Authors: Adel Sabry Eesa, Adnan Mohsin Abdulazeez Brifcani, Zeynep Orman

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Feature selection has been used in many fields such as classification, data mining and object recognition and proven to be effective for removing irrelevant and redundant features from the original data set. In this paper, a new design of distributed intrusion detection system using a combination feature selection model based on bees and decision tree. Bees algorithm is used as the search strategy to find the optimal subset of features, whereas decision tree is used as a judgment for the selected features. Both the produced features and the generated rules are used by Decision Making Mobile Agent to decide whether there is an attack or not in the networks. Decision Making Mobile Agent will migrate through the networks, moving from node to another, if it found that there is an attack on one of the nodes, it then alerts the user through User Interface Agent or takes some action through Action Mobile Agent. The KDD Cup 99 data set is used to test the effectiveness of the proposed system. The results show that even if only four features are used, the proposed system gives a better performance when it is compared with the obtained results using all 41 features.

Keywords: distributed intrusion detection system, mobile agent, feature selection, bees algorithm, decision tree

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Authors: Bandreddy Anand Babu, Srinivasa Rao Mandadi, C. Pradeep Reddy, N. Ramesh Babu

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In this paper quickly illustrate the correlation investigation of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) and daptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models done by climate estimating. The climate determining is taken from University of Waterloo. The information is taken as Relative Humidity, Ambient Air Temperature, Barometric Pressure and Wind Direction utilized within this paper. The paper is carried out by analyzing the exhibitions are seen by demonstrating of ARIMA and ANIFIS model like with Sum of average of errors. Versatile Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) demonstrating is carried out by Mat lab programming and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) displaying is produced by utilizing XLSTAT programming. ANFIS is carried out in Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in Mat Lab programming.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANFIS, fuzzy surmising tool stash, weather forecasting, MATLAB

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Authors: Mirzahmedov Ismoiljon Karimjon Ugli, Juraeva Shakhnoza Abdumalik Kizi

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The article deals with the current scientific problems of natural geography related to the development of new pedagogical technologies and their implementation in the educational process. The use of recommended interactive methods in independent study is considered very effective and is a very useful method for students, especially for students who work more on themselves. Today's demand is to make young people talented, intelligent, innovative, as well as mature and well-rounded individuals, as a result of the work carried out in the field of education today. This is how creating tables of different contents and filling them out shows the student's talent and desire for innovation. Also, the techniques and methods necessary for today's student are shown, the role of the teacher in conducting lessons meaningfully, the suitability of the method used by the teacher for the lesson, factors affecting the quality of education, and natural issues of the use of methods based on the specific features of geography are highlighted.

Keywords: teaching methods, educational process, educational technologies, education, problem, didactics, natural geography

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Authors: Y. Xu, L. Xiong, Z. Xu

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In order to protect data privacy, image with sensitive or private information needs to be encrypted before being outsourced to the cloud. However, this causes difficulties in image retrieval and data management. A secure image retrieval method based on orthogonal decomposition is proposed in the paper. The image is divided into two different components, for which encryption and feature extraction are executed separately. As a result, cloud server can extract features from an encrypted image directly and compare them with the features of the queried images, so that the user can thus obtain the image. Different from other methods, the proposed method has no special requirements to encryption algorithms. Experimental results prove that the proposed method can achieve better security and better retrieval precision.

Keywords: secure image retrieval, secure search, orthogonal decomposition, secure cloud computing

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Authors: Erick C. Valverde, Wansu Lim

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Facial emotion recognition (FER) system has been recently developed for more advanced computer vision applications. The ability to identify human emotions would enable smart healthcare facility to diagnose mental health illnesses (e.g., depression and stress) as well as better human social interactions with smart technologies. The FER system involves two steps: 1) face detection task and 2) facial emotion recognition task. It classifies the human expression in various categories such as angry, disgust, fear, happy, sad, surprise, and neutral. This system requires intensive research to address issues with human diversity, various unique human expressions, and variety of human facial features due to age differences. These issues generally affect the ability of the FER system to detect human emotions with high accuracy. Early stage of FER systems used simple supervised classification task algorithms like K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and artificial neural networks (ANN). These conventional FER systems have issues with low accuracy due to its inefficiency to extract significant features of several human emotions. To increase the accuracy of FER systems, deep learning (DL)-based methods, like convolutional neural networks (CNN), are proposed. These methods can find more complex features in the human face by means of the deeper connections within its architectures. However, the inference speed and computational costs of a DL-based FER system is often disregarded in exchange for higher accuracy results. To cope with this drawback, an optimized DL-based FER system is proposed in this study.An extreme version of Inception V3, known as Xception model, is leveraged by applying different network optimization methods. Specifically, network pruning and quantization are used to enable lower computational costs and reduce memory usage, respectively. To support low resource requirements, a 68-landmark face detector from Dlib is used in the early step of the FER system.Furthermore, a DL compiler is utilized to incorporate advanced optimization techniques to the Xception model to improve the inference speed of the FER system. In comparison to VGG-Net and ResNet50, the proposed optimized DL-based FER system experimentally demonstrates the objectives of the network optimization methods used. As a result, the proposed approach can be used to create an efficient and real-time FER system.

Keywords: deep learning, face detection, facial emotion recognition, network optimization methods

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Authors: Rashini Maduka, C. R. Wijesinghe, A. R. Weerasinghe

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Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) can happen when two or more drugs are taken together. Today DDIs have become a serious health issue due to adverse drug effects. In vivo and in vitro methods for identifying DDIs are time-consuming and costly. Therefore, in-silico-based approaches are preferred in DDI identification. Most machine learning models for DDI prediction are used chemical and biological drug properties as features. However, some drug features are not available and costly to extract. Therefore, it is better to make automatic feature engineering. Furthermore, people who have diabetes already suffer from other diseases and take more than one medicine together. Then adverse drug effects may happen to diabetic patients and cause unpleasant reactions in the body. In this study, we present a model with a graph convolutional autoencoder and a graph decoder using a dataset from DrugBank version 5.1.3. The main objective of the model is to identify unknown interactions between antidiabetic drugs and the drugs taken by diabetic patients for other diseases. We considered automatic feature engineering and used Known DDIs only as the input for the model. Our model has achieved 0.86 in AUC and 0.86 in AP.

Keywords: drug-drug interaction prediction, graph embedding, graph convolutional networks, adverse drug effects

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Authors: Vahid Nourani, Atefeh Ashrafi

Abstract:

Prediction of treated wastewater quality is a matter of growing importance in water treatment procedure. In this way artificial neural network (ANN), as a robust data-driven approach, has been widely used for forecasting the effluent quality of wastewater treatment. However, developing ANN model based on appropriate input variables is a major concern due to the numerous parameters which are collected from treatment process and the number of them are increasing in the light of electronic sensors development. Various studies have been conducted, using different clustering methods, in order to classify most related and effective input variables. This issue has been overlooked in the selecting dominant input variables among wastewater treatment parameters which could effectively lead to more accurate prediction of water quality. In the presented study two ANN models were developed with the aim of forecasting effluent quality of Tabriz city’s wastewater treatment plant. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was utilized to determine water quality as a target parameter. Model A used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for input selection as a linear variance-based clustering method. Model B used those variables identified by the mutual information (MI) measure. Therefore, the optimal ANN structure when the result of model B compared with model A showed up to 15% percent increment in Determination Coefficient (DC). Thus, this study highlights the advantage of PCA method in selecting dominant input variables for ANN modeling of wastewater plant efficiency performance.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, biochemical oxygen demand, principal component analysis, mutual information, Tabriz wastewater treatment plant, wastewater treatment plant

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Authors: Vikrant Gupta, Amrit Goswami

Abstract:

The fixed income market forms the basis of the modern financial market. All other assets in financial markets derive their value from the bond market. Owing to its over-the-counter nature, corporate bonds have relatively less data publicly available and thus is researched upon far less compared to Equities. Bond price prediction is a complex financial time series forecasting problem and is considered very crucial in the domain of finance. The bond prices are highly volatile and full of noise which makes it very difficult for traditional statistical time-series models to capture the complexity in series patterns which leads to inefficient forecasts. To overcome the inefficiencies of statistical models, various machine learning techniques were initially used in the literature for more accurate forecasting of time-series. However, simple machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vectors, random forests fail to provide efficient results when tested on highly complex sequences such as stock prices and bond prices. hence to capture these intricate sequence patterns, various deep learning-based methodologies have been discussed in the literature. In this study, a recurrent neural network-based deep learning model using long short term networks for prediction of corporate bond prices has been discussed. Long Short Term networks (LSTM) have been widely used in the literature for various sequence learning tasks in various domains such as machine translation, speech recognition, etc. In recent years, various studies have discussed the effectiveness of LSTMs in forecasting complex time-series sequences and have shown promising results when compared to other methodologies. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural networks which are capable of learning long term dependencies due to its memory function which traditional neural networks fail to capture. In this study, a simple LSTM, Stacked LSTM and a Masked LSTM based model has been discussed with respect to varying input sequences (three days, seven days and 14 days). In order to facilitate faster learning and to gradually decompose the complexity of bond price sequence, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) has been used, which has resulted in accuracy improvement of the standalone LSTM model. With a variety of Technical Indicators and EMD decomposed time series, Masked LSTM outperformed the other two counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy. To benchmark the proposed model, the results have been compared with traditional time series models (ARIMA), shallow neural networks and above discussed three different LSTM models. In summary, our results show that the use of LSTM models provide more accurate results and should be explored more within the asset management industry.

Keywords: bond prices, long short-term memory, time series forecasting, empirical mode decomposition

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Authors: Bernd Kiefer, Abraham Gebru Tesfay, Dietrich Klakow

Abstract:

The motivation of our work is to detect different terrain types traversed by a robot based on acoustic data from the robot-terrain interaction. Different acoustic features and classifiers were investigated, such as Mel-frequency cepstral coefficient and Gamma-tone frequency cepstral coefficient for the feature extraction, and Gaussian mixture model and Feed forward neural network for the classification. We analyze the system’s performance by comparing our proposed techniques with some other features surveyed from distinct related works. We achieve precision and recall values between 87% and 100% per class, and an average accuracy at 95.2%. We also study the effect of varying audio chunk size in the application phase of the models and find only a mild impact on performance.

Keywords: acoustic features, autonomous robots, feature extraction, terrain classification

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Authors: Belaynesh Chekol, Numan Çelebi

Abstract:

The main purpose of this work is to recognize individual characters extracted from natural scene images using scale invariant feature transform (SIFT) features as an input to K-nearest neighbor (KNN); a classification learner algorithm. For this task, 1,068 and 78 images of English alphabet characters taken from Chars74k data set is used to train and test the classifier respectively. For each character image, We have generated describing features by using SIFT algorithm. This set of features is fed to the learner so that it can recognize and label new images of English characters. Two types of KNN (fine KNN and weighted KNN) were trained and the resulted classification accuracy is 56.9% and 56.5% respectively. The training time taken was the same for both fine and weighted KNN.

Keywords: character recognition, KNN, natural scene image, SIFT

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Authors: Abe Degale D., Cheng Jian

Abstract:

When creating automated video surveillance systems, violent action recognition is crucial. In recent years, hand-crafted feature detectors have been the primary method for achieving violence detection, such as the recognition of fighting activity. Researchers have also looked into learning-based representational models. On benchmark datasets created especially for the detection of violent sequences in sports and movies, these methods produced good accuracy results. The Hockey dataset's videos with surveillance camera motion present challenges for these algorithms for learning discriminating features. Image recognition and human activity detection challenges have shown success with deep representation-based methods. For the purpose of detecting violent images and identifying aggressive human behaviours, this research suggested a deep representation-based model using the transfer learning idea. The results show that the suggested approach outperforms state-of-the-art accuracy levels by learning the most discriminating features, attaining 99.34% and 99.98% accuracy levels on the Hockey and Movies datasets, respectively.

Keywords: violence detection, faster RCNN, transfer learning and, surveillance video

Procedia PDF Downloads 66