Search results for: extreme%20precipitation%20events

Authors: Muhammad Rasyid Angkotasan

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The soil is a dense granules and arrangement of the pores that are related to each other, so that the water can flow from one point which has higher energy to a point that has lower energy. The flow of water through the pores of the porous ground is urgently needed in water seepage estimates in ground water pumping problems, investigate for underground construction, as well as analyzing the stability of the construction of Weirs. Climate change resulted in long-term changes in the distribution of weather patterns are statistically throughout the period start time of decades to millions of years. In other words, changes in the average weather circumstances or a change in the distribution of weather events, on average, for example, the number of extreme weather events that increasingly a lot or a little. Climate change is limited to a particular regional or can occur in all regions of the Earth. Geographical location between two continents and two oceans and is located around the equator is klimatologis factor is the cause of flooding and drought in Indonesia. This caused Indonesia' geographical position is on a hemisphere with a tropical monsoon climate is very sensitive to climatic anomaly El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO causes drought occurrence in sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific Equator warms up to the middle part of the East (El Nino). Based on the analysis of the climate of the last 30 years show that there is a tendency, the formation of a new pattern of climate causes the onset of climate change. The impact of climate change on the occurrence of the agricultural sector is the bergesernya beginning of the dry season which led to the above-mentioned pattern planting due to drought. The impact of climate change (drought) which is very extreme in Indonesia affect the shrinkage dimensions grain land and reduced the value of a percentage of the soil Plasticity Index caused by climate change.

Keywords: climate change, soil shrinkage, plasticity index, shrinking dimensions

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Authors: Pier Andrea Marras, Daniela Lima, Pedro Matos Soares, Rita Maria Cardoso, Daniela Medas, Elisabetta Dore, Giovanni De Giudici

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Climate change effects on the hydrologic cycle are the main concern for the evaluation of water management strategies. Climate models project scenarios of precipitation changes in the future, considering greenhouse emissions. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) climate models were first evaluated in a Mediterranean island (Sardinia) against observed precipitation for a historical reference period (1976-2005). A weighted multi-model ensemble (ENS) was built, weighting the single models based on their ability to reproduce observed rainfall. Future projections (2071-2100) were carried out using the 8.5 RCP emissions scenario to evaluate changes in precipitations. ENS was then used as climate forcing for the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), with the aim to assess the consequences of such projected changes on streamflow and runoff of two small catchments located in the South-West Sardinia. Results showed that a decrease of mean rainfall values, up to -25 % at yearly scale, is expected for the future, along with an increase of extreme precipitation events. Particularly in the eastern and southern areas, extreme events are projected to increase by 30%. Such changes reflect on the hydrologic cycle with a decrease of mean streamflow and runoff, except in spring, when runoff is projected to increase by 20-30%. These results stress that the Mediterranean is a hotspot for climate change, and the use of model tools can provide very useful information to adopt water and land management strategies to deal with such changes.

Keywords: EURO-CORDEX, climate change, hydrology, SWAT model, Sardinia, multi-model ensemble

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Authors: Olga Shuvaeva, Tamara Romanova, Sergey Volynkin, Valentina Podolinnaya

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Green chemistry concept is focused on the prevention of environmental pollution caused by human activity. However, there are a lot of contaminated areas in the world which pose a serious threat to ecosystems in terms of their conservation. Therefore in accordance with the principles of green chemistry, it should not be forgotten about the need to clean these areas. Furthermore, the waste material often contains the valuable components, the extraction of which by traditional wet chemical technologies is inefficient both from the economic and environmental protection standpoint. Wherein, the plants may be successfully used to ‘scavenge’ a range of metals from polluted land sites in an approach allowing to carry out both of these processes – phytoremediation and phytomining in conjunction. The goal of the present work was to study bioaccumulation ability of floating macrophytes such as water hyacinth and pondweed toward Hg, Ba, Cd, Mo and Pb as pollutants in aquatic medium and terrestrial plants (birch, reed, and cane) towards gold and silver as valuable components. The peculiarity of ongoing research was that the plants grew under extreme conditions (pH of drainage and pore waters was about 2.5). The study was conducted at the territory of Ursk tailings (Southwestern Siberia, Russia) formed as a result of primary polymetallic ores cyanidation. The waste material is mainly presented (~80%) by pyrite (FeS₂) and barite (BaSO₄), the raw minerals included FeAsS, HgS, PbS, Ag₂S as minor ones. It has been shown that water hyacinth demonstrates high ability to accumulate different metals, and what is especially important – to remove mercury from polluted waters with BCF value more than 1000. As for the gold, its concentrations in reed and cane growing near the waste material were estimated as 500 and 900 μg∙kg⁻¹ respectively. It was also found that the plants can survive under extreme conditions of acidic environment and hence we can assume that there is a principal opportunity to use them for the valuable substances extraction from an area of the mining waste dumps burial.

Keywords: bioaccumulation, gold, heavy metals, mine tailing

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Authors: Yi-Yu Huang, Chien-Kuo Wang, Sreerag Chota Veettil, Hang Zhang, Hu Yike

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Regarding the pressing issue of reducing energy consumption and carbon footprint of buildings, past research has focused more on analyzing the thermal performance of the extensive terrestrial green roofs with sedum plants in summer. However, the disadvantages of this type of green roof are relatively limited thermal performance, low extreme weather adaptability, relatively higher demands in maintenance, and lower added value in healing landscape. In view of this, this research aims to develop the extensive wetland green roofs with higher thermal performance, high extreme weather adaptability, low demands in maintenance, and high added value in healing landscape, and to measure its thermal performance for buildings in winter. The following factors are considered including the type and mixing formula of growth medium (light weight soil, akadama, creek gravel, pure water) and the type of aquatic plants. The research adopts a four-stage field experiment conducting on the rooftop of a building in a humid subtropical climate. The results found that emergent (Roundleaf rotala), submerged (Ribbon weed), floating-leaved (Water lily) wetland green roofs had similar thermal performance, and superior over wetland green roof without plant, traditional terrestrial green roof (without plant), and pure water green roof (without plant, nighttime only) in terms of overall passive cooling (8.00C) and thermal insulation (4.50C) effects as well as a reduction in heat amplitude (77-85%) in winter in a humid subtropical climate. The thermal performance of the free-floating (Water hyacinth) wetland green roof is inferior to that of the other three types of wetland green roofs, whether in daytime or nighttime.

Keywords: thermal performance, extensive wetland green roof, Aquatic plant, Winter , Humid subtropical climate

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Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

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As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.

Keywords: global warming, rainfall, CMIP5, CORDEX, NWH

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Authors: Saoussen Dhib, Chris M. Mannaerts, Zoubeida Bargaoui, Ben H. P. Maathuis, Petra Budde

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In this study, a new method to delineate rain areas in northern Tunisia is presented. The proposed approach is based on the blending of the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) infrared channel (IR) with the low-earth orbiting passive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). To blend this two products, we need to apply two main steps. Firstly, we have to identify the rainy pixels. This step is achieved based on a classification using MSG channel IR 10.8 and the water vapor WV 0.62, applying a threshold on the temperature difference of less than 11 Kelvin which is an approximation of the clouds that have a high likelihood of precipitation. The second step consists on fitting the relation between IR cloud top temperature with the TMI rain rates. The correlation coefficient of these two variables has a negative tendency, meaning that with decreasing temperature there is an increase in rainfall intensity. The fitting equation will be applied for the whole day of MSG 15 minutes interval images which will be summed. To validate this combined product, daily extreme rainfall events occurred during the period 2007-2009 were selected, using a threshold criterion for large rainfall depth (> 50 mm/day) occurring at least at one rainfall station. Inverse distance interpolation method was applied to generate rainfall maps for the drier summer season (from May to October) and the wet winter season (from November to April). The evaluation results of the estimated rainfall combining MSG and TMI was very encouraging where all the events were detected rainy and the correlation coefficients were much better than previous evaluated products over the study area such as MSGMPE and PERSIANN products. The combined product showed a better performance during wet season. We notice also an overestimation of the maximal estimated rain for many events.

Keywords: combination, extreme, rainfall, TMI-MSG, Tunisia

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Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio

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The earth system is subject to a wide range of human activities that have changed the ecosystem more rapidly and extensively in the last five decades. These global changes have a large impact on human health. The relationship between extreme weather events and mortality are widely documented in different studies. In particular, a number of studies have investigated the relationship between climatological variations and the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The researchers have become interested in the evaluation of the effect of environmental variations on the occurrence of different diseases (such as infarction, ischemic heart disease, asthma, respiratory problems, etc.) and mortality. Among changes in weather conditions, the heat waves have been used for investigating the association between weather conditions and cardiovascular events and cerebrovascular, using thermal indices, which combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The effects of heat waves on human health are mainly found in the urban areas and they are aggravated by the presence of atmospheric pollution. The consequences of these changes for human health are of growing concern. In particular, meteorological conditions are one of the environmental aspects because cardiovascular diseases are more common among the elderly population, and such people are more sensitive to weather changes. In addition, heat waves, or extreme heat events, are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration with climate change. In this context, are very important public health and climate change connections increasingly being recognized by the medical research, because these might help in informing the public at large. Policy experts claim that a growing awareness of the relationships of public health and climate change could be a key in breaking through political logjams impeding action on mitigation and adaptation. The aims of this study are to investigate about the importance of interactions between weather variables and your effects on human health, focusing on Italy. Also highlighting the need to define strategies and practical actions of monitoring, adaptation and mitigation of the phenomenon.

Keywords: climate change, illness, Italy, temperature, weather

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Authors: Amit G. Dhorde

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It is now well established that the global surface air temperatures have increased significantly during the period that followed the industrial revolution. One of the main predictions of climate change is that the occurrences of extreme weather events will increase in future. In many regions of the world, high-temperature extremes have already started occurring with rising frequency. The main objective of the present study is to understand spatial and temporal changes in days with heat and cold wave conditions over southern India. The study area includes the region of India that lies to the south of Tropic of Cancer. To fulfill the objective, daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 80 stations were collected for the period 1969-2006 from National Data Center of India Meteorological Department. After assessing the homogeneity of data, 62 stations were finally selected for the study. Heat and cold waves were classified as slight, moderate and severe based on the criteria given by Indias' meteorological department. For every year, numbers of days experiencing heat and cold wave conditions were computed. This data was analyzed with linear regression to find any existing trend. Further, the time period was divided into four decades to investigate the decadal frequency of the occurrence of heat and cold waves. The results revealed that the average annual temperature over southern India shows an increasing trend, which signifies warming over this area. Further, slight cold waves during winter season have been decreasing at the majority of the stations. The moderate cold waves also show a similar pattern at the majority of the stations. This is an indication of warming winters over the region. Besides this analysis, other extreme indices were also analyzed such as extremely hot days, hot days, very cold nights, cold nights, etc. This analysis revealed that nights are becoming warmer and days are getting warmer over some regions too.

Keywords: heat wave, cold wave, southern India, decadal frequency

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Authors: Anand Malik

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The Himalayas with high tectonic activities poses a great threat to human life and property. Climate change is another reason which triggering extreme events multiple fold effect on high mountain glacial environment, rock falls, landslides, debris flows, flash flood and snow avalanches. One such extreme event of cloud burst along with breach of moraine dammed Chorabri Lake occurred from June 14 to June 17, 2013, triggered flooding of Saraswati and Mandakini rivers in the Kedarnath Valley of Rudraprayag district of Uttrakhand state of India. As a result, huge volume of water with its high velocity created a catastrophe of the century, which resulted into loss of large number of human/animals, pilgrimage, tourism, agriculture and property. Thus a comprehensive assessment of debris flow hazards requires GIS-based modeling using numerical methods. The aim of present study is to focus on analysis and mapping of debris flow movements using geospatial data with flow-r (developed by team at IGAR, University of Lausanne). The model is based on combined probabilistic and energetic algorithms for the assessment of spreading of flow with maximum run out distances. Aster Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 30m x 30m cell size (resolution) is used as main geospatial data for preparing the run out assessment, while Landsat data is used to analyze land use land cover change in the study area. The results of the study area show that model can be applied with great accuracy as the model is very useful in determining debris flow areas. The results are compared with existing available landslides/debris flow maps. ArcGIS software is used in preparing run out susceptibility maps which can be used in debris flow mitigation and future land use planning.

Keywords: debris flow, geospatial data, GIS based modeling, flow-R

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Authors: Deepti Kohli, Meeta Keswani Mehra

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The paper develops a theoretical model of electoral competition with purely opportunistic candidates and a uni-dimensional policy using the probability voting approach while focusing on the aspect of lobby formation to analyze the inherent complex interactions between centripetal and centrifugal forces and their effects on equilibrium policy platforms. There exist three types of agents, namely, Left-wing, Moderate and Right-wing who comprise of the total voting population. Also, it is assumed that the Left and Right agents are free to initiate a lobby of their choice. If initiated, these lobbies generate donations which in turn can be contributed to one (or both) electoral candidates in order to influence them to implement the lobby’s preferred policy. Four different lobby formation scenarios have been considered: no lobby formation, only Left, only Right and both Left and Right. The equilibrium policy platforms, amount of individual donations by agents to their respective lobbies and the contributions offered to the electoral candidates have been solved for under each of the above four cases. Since it is assumed that the agents cannot coordinate each other’s actions during the lobby formation stage, there exists a probability with which a lobby would be formed, which is also solved for in the model. The results indicate that the policy platforms of the two electoral candidates converge completely under the cases of no lobby and both (extreme) formations but diverge under the cases of only one (Left or Right) lobby formation. This is because in the case of no lobby being formed, only the centripetal forces (emerging from the election-winning aspect) are present while in the case of both extreme (Left-wing and Right-wing) lobbies being formed, centrifugal forces (emerging from the lobby formation aspect) also arise but cancel each other out, again resulting in a pure policy convergence phenomenon. In contrast, in case of only one lobby being formed, both centripetal and centrifugal forces interact strategically, leading the two electoral candidates to choose completely different policy platforms in equilibrium. Additionally, it is found that in equilibrium, while the donation by a specific agent type increases with the formation of both lobbies in comparison to when only one lobby is formed, the probability of implementation of the policy being advocated by that lobby group falls.

Keywords: electoral competition, equilibrium policy platforms, lobby formation, opportunistic candidates

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Authors: Felipe Henao, Yeny Rodriguez, Juan P. Viteri, Isaac Dyner

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Colombia is rich in natural resources and greatly focuses on the exploitation of water for hydroelectricity purposes. Alternative cleaner energy sources, such as solar and wind power, have been largely neglected despite: a) its abundance, b) the complementarities between hydro, solar and wind power, and c) the cost competitiveness of renewable technologies. The current limited mix of energy sources creates considerable weaknesses for the system, particularly when facing extreme dry weather conditions, such as El Niño event. In the past, El Niño have exposed the truly consequences of a system heavily dependent on hydropower, i.e. loss of power supply, high energy production costs, and loss of overall competitiveness for the country. Nonetheless, it is expected that the participation of hydroelectricity will increase in the near future. In this context, this paper proposes a stochastic lineal programming model to optimize the insertion of renewable energy systems (RES) into the Colombian electricity sector. The model considers cost-based generation competition between traditional energy technologies and alternative RES. This work evaluates the financial, environmental, and technical implications of different combinations of technologies. Various scenarios regarding the future evolution of costs of the technologies are considered to conduct sensitivity analysis of the solutions – to assess the extent of the participation of the RES in the Colombian power sector. Optimization results indicate that, even in the worst case scenario, where costs remain constant, the Colombian power sector should diversify its portfolio of technologies and invest strongly in solar and wind power technologies. The diversification through RES will contribute to make the system less vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, reduce the overall system costs, cut CO2 emissions, and decrease the chances of having national blackout events in the future. In contrast, the business as usual scenario indicates that the system will turn more costly and less reliable.

Keywords: energy policy and planning, stochastic programming, sustainable development, water management

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Authors: Isabel Mousinho de Figueiredo

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Traditionally it was held that the king can do no wrong. History has proved otherwise, and both the rule of law and the open society call for a diversification of checks and balances, including civil liability in tort. Most jurisdictions are right to fear the excessive cost of such liability for the innocent taxpayer. There are notwithstanding extreme instances where refusing compensation is perceived to be outrageous. Many public bodies end up handing out on a voluntary basis, which leaves room to question its legality and merit. Instead, some criteria can shed light on the fairness of an underlying rationale of such compensation and cordon it off within reasonable limits.

Keywords: comparative law, liability of legislators, public bodies, tort law

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Authors: Mohammad Motiee

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From Kierkegaard to Sartre, the concept of 'being' was debated over various angles in the philosophy of being. Then, the futility, nothingness and absurdity of human condition in the world were all justified and led to a kind of solution by different approaches like Christianity, loss of faith, authentic existence and responsibility. In an extreme concern, the human condition in the world was pondered in different ways and the philosophy of thought tried to render an awareness of such condition for human beings. The present study aims at illustration of some approaches presented by prominent existentialists to justify the controversies in the concept of existence in human life.

Keywords: existence, existentialism, alienation, being

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Authors: Susmita Ghosh

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Catchment area of Damodar River, India experiences seasonal rains due to the south-west monsoon every year and depending upon the intensity of the storms, floods occur. During the monsoon season, the rainfall in the area is mainly due to active monsoon conditions. The upstream reach of Damodar river system has five dams store the water for utilization for various purposes viz, irrigation, hydro-power generation, municipal supplies and last but not the least flood moderation. But, in the downstream reach of Damodar River, known as Lower Damodar region, is severely and frequently suffering from flood due to heavy monsoon rainfall and also release from upstream reservoirs. Therefore, an effective flood management study is required to know in depth the nature and extent of flood, water logging, and erosion related problems, affected area, and damages in the Lower Damodar region, by conducting mathematical model study. The design flood or discharge is needed to decide to assign the respective model for getting several scenarios from the simulation runs. The ultimate aim is to achieve a sustainable flood management scheme from the several alternatives. there are various methods for estimating flood discharges to be carried through the rivers and their tributaries for quick drainage from inundated areas due to drainage congestion and excess rainfall. In the present study, the flood frequency analysis is performed to decide the design flood discharge of the study area. This, on the other hand, has limitations in respect of availability of long peak flood data record for determining long type of probability density function correctly. If sufficient past records are available, the maximum flood on a river with a given frequency can safely be determined. The floods of different frequency for the Damodar has been calculated by five candidate distributions i.e., generalized extreme value, extreme value-I, Pearson type III, Log Pearson and normal. Annual peak discharge series are available at Durgapur barrage for the period of 1979 to 2013 (35 years). The available series are subjected to frequency analysis. The primary objective of the flood frequency analysis is to relate the magnitude of extreme events to their frequencies of occurrence through the use of probability distributions. The design flood for return periods of 10, 15 and 25 years return period at Durgapur barrage are estimated by flood frequency method. It is necessary to develop flood hydrographs for the above floods to facilitate the mathematical model studies to find the depth and extent of inundation etc. Null hypothesis that the distributions fit the data at 95% confidence is checked with goodness of fit test, i.e., Chi Square Test. It is revealed from the goodness of fit test that the all five distributions do show a good fit on the sample population and is therefore accepted. However, it is seen that there is considerable variation in the estimation of frequency flood. It is therefore considered prudent to average out the results of these five distributions for required frequencies. The inundated area from past data is well matched using this flood.

Keywords: design discharge, flood frequency, goodness of fit, sustainable flood management

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Authors: Parvin Ghafarian, Mohammadreza Mohammadpur Panchah, Mehri Fallahi

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Synoptic patterns from surface up to tropopause are very important for forecasting the weather and atmospheric conditions. There are many tools to prepare and analyze these maps. Reanalysis data and the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, satellite images, meteorological radar, and weather station data are used in world forecasting centers to predict the weather. The forecasting extreme precipitating on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (CS) is the main issue due to complex topography. Also, there are different types of climate in these areas. In this research, we used two reanalysis data such as ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Description (ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for verification of the numerical model. ERA5 is the latest version of ECMWF. The temporal resolution of ERA5 is hourly, and the NCEP/NCAR is every six hours. Some atmospheric parameters such as mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, sea surface temperature, etc. were selected and analyzed. Some different type of precipitation (rain and snow) was selected. The results showed that the NCEP/NCAR has more ability to demonstrate the intensity of the atmospheric system. The ERA5 is suitable for extract the value of parameters for specific point. Also, ERA5 is appropriate to analyze the snowfall events over CS (snow cover and snow depth). Sea surface temperature has the main role to generate instability over CS, especially when the cold air pass from the CS. Sea surface temperature of NCEP/NCAR product has low resolution near coast. However, both data were able to detect meteorological synoptic patterns that led to heavy rainfall over CS. However, due to the time lag, they are not suitable for forecast centers. The application of these two data is for research and verification of meteorological models. Finally, ERA5 has a better resolution, respect to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, but NCEP/NCAR data is available from 1948 and appropriate for long term research.

Keywords: synoptic patterns, heavy precipitation, reanalysis data, snow

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Authors: Garreth Kestell, Lukah Dykes, Danielle Zerk, Kyla Trewartha, Rhianon Marshall, Elena Rudnik

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Adolescent mental health is an international priority and the impact of innovative service models must be evaluated. Secondary school-based mental health services (SBMHS) involving private general practitioners and psychologists are a model of care being trialed in South Australia. Measures of depression, anxiety, and stress are routinely collected throughout psychotherapy sessions. This research set out to quantify the impact of psychotherapy for rural adolescents in a school setting and explore the importance of session frequency. Methods: Demographics, session date and DASS21 scores from students (n=65) seen in 2016 by three psychologists working at the SBMHS were recorded. Students were aged 13-18 years (M=15.43, SD= 1.24), mostly female (F=51, M=14), attended between 1 and 23 sessions with a median of 6 sessions (MAD 5.93) in one-year. The treating psychologist collected self-administered DASS21 scores. A mixed model analysis was used with age, sex, treating psychologist, months from first session, and session number as fixed effects, with response variables of DASS depression, anxiety, and stress scores. Results: 71.5% were classified as having extreme or severe anxiety and half had extreme or severe depression and/or stress scores. On average males had a greater increase in DASS scores over time but males attending more sessions benefited most from therapy. Discussion: Psychologists are treating rural adolescents in schools for severe anxiety, depression, and stress. This pilot study indicates that a predictive model combining demographics, session frequency, and DASS scores may help identify who is most likely to benefit from individual psychotherapy. Variations in DAS scores of individuals over time indicate the need for the collection of information such as living situation and exposure to alcohol. A larger sample size and additional data are currently being collected to allow for a more robust analysis.

Keywords: adolescent health, psychotherapy, school based mental health services, DAS21

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Authors: Anastasios Rodis

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Background: Case studies of walkers, climbers, and campers exposed to cold and wet conditions without limb water/windproof protection revealed experiences of muscle weakness and fatigue. It is reasonable to assume that a part of the fatigue could occur due to an alteration in substrate utilization, since reduction of performance in extreme cold conditions, may partially be explained by higher anaerobic glycolysis, reflecting higher carbohydrate oxidation and an increase accumulation rate of blood lactate. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of pre-exercise lower limb cooling on substrate utilization rate during sub-maximal exercise. Method: Six male university students (mean (SD): age, 21.3 (1.0) yr; maximal oxygen uptake (V0₂ max), 49.6 (3.6) ml.min⁻¹; and percentage of body fat, 13.6 (2.5) % were examined in random order after either 30min cold water (12°C) immersion utilized as the cooling strategy up to the gluteal fold, or under control conditions (no precooling), with tests separated by minimum of 7 days. Exercise consisted of 60min cycling at 50% V0₂ max, in a thermoneutral environment of 20°C. Subjects were also required to record a diet diary over the 24hrs prior to the each trial. Means (SD) for the three macronutrients during the 1 day prior to each trial (expressed as a percentage of total energy) 52 (3) % carbohydrate, 31 (4) % fat, and 17 (± 2) % protein. Results: The following responses to lower limb cooling relative to control trial during exercise were: 1) Carbohydrate (CHO) oxidation, and blood lactate (Bₗₐc) concentration were significantly higher (P < 0.05); 2) rectal temperature (Tᵣₑc) was significantly higher (P < 0.05), but skin temperature was significantly lower (P < 0.05); no significant differences were found in blood glucose (Bg), heart rate (HR) and oxygen consumption (V0₂). Discussion: These data suggested that lower limb cooling prior to submaximal exercise will shift metabolic processes from Fat oxidation to CHO oxidation. This shift from Fat to CHO oxidation will probably have important implications in the surviving scenario, since people facing accidental localized cooling of their limbs either through wading/falling in cold water or snow even if they do not perform high intensity activity, they have to rely on CHO availability.

Keywords: exercise in wet conditions, leg cooling, outdoors exercise, substrate utilization

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Authors: Caglayan Hizal, Kutay Yuceturk, Ertugrul Turker Uzun, Hasan Ceylan, Engin Aktas, Gursoy Turan

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Monitoring concepts for structural systems have been investigated by researchers for decades since such tools are quite convenient to determine intervention planning of structures. Despite the considerable development in this regard, the efficient use of monitoring data in reliability assessment, and prediction models are still in need of improvement in their efficiency. More specifically, reliability-based seismic risk assessment of engineering structures may play a crucial role in the post-earthquake decision-making process for the structures. After an earthquake, professionals could identify heavily damaged structures based on visual observations. Among these, it is hard to identify the ones with minimum signs of damages, even if they would experience considerable structural degradation. Besides, visual observations are open to human interpretations, which make the decision process controversial, and thus, less reliable. In this context, when a continuous monitoring system has been previously installed on the corresponding structure, this decision process might be completed rapidly and with higher confidence by means of the observed data. At this stage, the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) procedure has an important role since it can make it possible to estimate the system reliability based on a recursively updated mathematical model. Therefore, integrating an SHM procedure into the reliability assessment process comes forward as an important challenge due to the arising uncertainties for the updated model in case of the environmental, material and earthquake induced changes. In this context, this study presents a case study on SHM-integrated reliability assessment of the continuously monitored progressively damaged systems. The objective of this study is to get instant feedback on the current state of the structure after an extreme event, such as earthquakes, by involving the observed data rather than the visual inspections. Thus, the decision-making process after such an event can be carried out on a rational basis. In the near future, this can give wing to the design of self-reported structures which can warn about its current situation after an extreme event.

Keywords: condition assessment, vibration-based SHM, reliability analysis, seismic risk assessment

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Authors: Erick R. Bandala, Kebret Kebede, Nicole Johnson, Rebecca Murray, Destiny Green, John Mejia, Polioptro Martinez-Austria

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Summertemperature data from Clark County was collected and used to estimate two different heat-related indexes: the heat index (HI) and excess heat factor (EHF). These two indexes were used jointly with data of health-related deaths in Clark County to assess the effect of extreme heat on the exposed population. The trends of the heat indexes were then analyzed for the 2007-2016 decadeandthe correlation between heat wave episodes and the number of heat-related deaths in the area was estimated. The HI showed that this value has increased significantly in June, July, and August over the last ten years. The same trend was found for the EHF, which showed a clear increase in the severity and number of these events per year. The number of heat wave episodes increased from 1.4 per year during the 1980-2016 period to 1.66 per yearduring the 2007-2016 period. However, a different trend was found for heat-wave-event duration, which decreasedfrom an average of 20.4 days during the trans-decadal period (1980-2016) to 18.1 days during the most recent decade(2007-2016). The number of heat-related deaths was also found to increase from 2007 to 2016, with 2016 with the highest number of heat-related deaths. Both HI and the number of deaths showeda normal-like distribution for June, July, and August, with the peak values reached in late July and early August. The average maximum HI values better correlated with the number of deaths registered in Clark County than the EHF, probably because HI uses the maximum temperature and humidity in its estimation,whereas EHF uses the average medium temperature. However, it is worth testing the EHF of the study zone because it was reported to fit properly in the case of heat-related morbidity. For the overall period, 437 heat-related deaths were registered in Clark County, with 20% of the deaths occurring in June, 52% occurring in July, 18% occurring in August,and the remaining 10% occurring in the other months of the year. The most vulnerable subpopulation was people over 50 years old, for which 76% of the heat-related deaths were registered.Most of the cases were associated with heart disease preconditions. The second most vulnerable subpopulation was young adults (20-50), which accounted for 23% of the heat-related deaths. These deathswere associated with alcoholic/illegal drug intoxication.

Keywords: heat, health, hazards, workforce

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Authors: Giuseppina Anna Giorgio, Angela Lorusso, Maria Ragosta, Vito Telesca

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Climate change is a major public health threat due to the effects of extreme weather events on human health and on quality of life in general. In this context, mean temperatures are increasing, in particular, extreme temperatures, with heat waves becoming more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting. In many cities, extreme heat waves have drastically increased, giving rise to so-called Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. In an urban centre, maximum temperatures may be up to 10° C warmer, due to different local atmospheric conditions. UHI occurs in the metropolitan areas as function of the population size and density of a city. It consists of a significant difference in temperature compared to the rural/suburban areas. Increasing industrialization and urbanization have increased this phenomenon and it has recently also been detected in small cities. Weather conditions and land use are one of the key parameters in the formation of UHI. In particular surface urban heat island is directly related to temperatures, to land surface types and surface modifications. The present study concern a UHI analysis of Matera city (Italy) based on the analysis of temperature, change in land use and land cover, using Corine Land Cover maps and satellite Landsat images. Matera, located in Southern Italy, has a typical Mediterranean climate with mild winters and hot and humid summers. Moreover, Matera has been awarded the international title of the 2019 European Capital of Culture. Matera represents a significant example of vernacular architecture. The structure of the city is articulated by a vertical succession of dug layers sometimes excavated or partly excavated and partly built, according to the original shape and height of the calcarenitic slope. In this study, two meteorological stations were selected: MTA (MaTera Alsia, in industrial zone) and MTCP (MaTera Civil Protection, suburban area located in a green zone). In order to evaluate the increase in temperatures (in terms of UHI occurrences) over time, and evaluating the effect of land use on weather conditions, the climate variability of temperatures for both stations was explored. Results show that UHI phenomena is growing in Matera city, with an increase of maximum temperature values at a local scale. Subsequently, spatial analysis was conducted by Landsat satellite images. Four years was selected in the summer period (27/08/2000, 27/07/2006, 11/07/2012, 02/08/2017). In Particular, Landsat 7 ETM+ for 2000, 2006 and 2012 years; Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS for 2017. In order to estimate the LST, Mono Window Algorithm was applied. Therefore, the increase of LST values spatial scale trend has been verified, in according to results obtained at local scale. Finally, the analysis of land use maps over the years by the LST and/or the maximum temperatures measured, show that the development of industrialized area produces a corresponding increase in temperatures and consequently a growth in UHI.

Keywords: climate variability, land surface temperature, LANDSAT images, urban heat island

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

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According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

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Authors: Ábrám Zoltán

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Introduction: Climate change is now a major health risk, and its environmental and health effects have become frequently discussed topics. The consequences of climate change are clearly visible in natural disasters and excess deaths caused by extreme weather conditions. Global warming and the increasingly frequent extreme weather events have direct, immediate effects or long-term, indirect effects on health. For this reason, it is a need to teach the health effects of climate change in medical schools. Material and methods: We looked for various surveys, studies, and reports on the main pathways through which global warming affects health. Medical schools face the challenge of teaching the health implications of climate change and integrating knowledge about the health effects of climate change into medical training. For this purpose, there were organised World Café workshops for three target groups: medical students, academic staff, and practising medical doctors. Results: Among the goals of the research is the development of a detailed curriculum for medical students, which serves to expand their knowledge in basic education. At the same time, the project promotes the increase of teacher motivation and the development of methodological guidelines for university teachers; it also provides further training for practicing doctors. The planned teaching materials will be developed in a format suitable for traditional face-to-face teaching, as well as e-learning teaching materials. CLIMATEMED is a project based on the cooperation of six universities and institutions from four countries, the aim of which is to improve the curriculum and expand knowledge about the health effects of climate change at medical universities. Conclusions: In order to assess the needs, summarize the proposals, to develop the necessary strategy, World Café type, one-and-a-half to two-hour round table discussions will take place separately for medical students, academic staff, and practicing doctors. The CLIMATEMED project can facilitate the integration of knowledge about the health effects of climate change into curricula and can promote practical use. The avoidance of the unwanted effects of global warming and climate change is not only a public matter, but it is also a challenge to change our own lifestyle. It is the responsibility of all of us to protect the Earth's ecosystem and the physical and mental health of ourselves and future generations.

Keywords: climate change, health effects, medical schools, World Café, medical students

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Authors: Rebecca A. Deek

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There is evidence that erratic and extreme weather is becoming a common occurrence, and even predictions that this will become even more frequent and more severe. It also appears that the severity of earthquakes is intensifying. Some observers believe that human conduct has given reasons for such change; others attribute this to environmental and geological cycles. However, as some physicists, environmental scientists, politicians, and others continue to debate the connection between weather events, seismic activities, and climate change, other scientists, engineers, and urban planners are exploring how can our habitat become more responsive and resilient to such phenomena. There are a number of recent instances of nature’s destructive events that provide basis for the development of defensive measures.

Keywords: biomimicry, natural disasters, protection of human lives, resilient infrastructures

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Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

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The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km² and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km² and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation

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Authors: Patricia Portugal Marques de Carvalho Lourenço

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Pop Music embodies both the music that is popular with the audiences and the one that is widespread amongst the general public associated with a state of mind and rhythm. Tai Chi epitomises Yin and Yang, two interconnected opposite states of being. Undivided, they are one, a neutral state of consciousness that does not swing to either pole. It remains constant and even minded. Sound flows and vibrations cause movement, a physical response to the tempo. When an excessive movement is reached leads to stillness therefore, extreme Yang leads to Yin. Pop Music and Tai Chi are comparable to state of inner being versus a state of outer being, emotional control versus emotional expression, stillness, and movement; opposites that are independent of one another yet interdependent concepts in motion.

Keywords: Pop music, C-Pop, Tai Chi, Ba Gua, communication, entertainment education

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Authors: Ethel E. Phiri, Lionel Hartzenberg, Percy Chimwamuromba, Emmanuel Nepolo, Jens Kossmann, James R. Lloyd

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Orphan crops are underresearched and underutilized food plant species that have not been categorized as major food crops, but have the potential to be economically and agronomically significant. They have been documented to have the ability to tolerate extreme environmental conditions. However, limited research has been conducted to uncover their potential as food crop species. The New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) has classified Marama bean, Tylosema esculentum, as an orphan crop. The plant is one of the 101 African orphan crops that must have their genomes sequenced, assembled, and annotated in the foreseeable future. Marama bean is a perennial leguminous plant that primarily grows in poor, arid soils in southern Africa. The plants produce large tubers that can weigh as much as 200kg. While the foliage provides fodder, the tuber is carbohydrate rich and is a staple food source for rural communities in Namibia. Also, the edible seeds are protein- and oil-rich. Marama Bean plants respond rapidly to increased temperatures and severe water scarcity without extreme consequences. Advances in molecular biology and biotechnology have made it possible to effectively transfer technologies between model- and major crops to orphan crops. In this research, the aim was to assemble the first transcriptomic analysis of Marama Bean RNA-sequence data. Many model plant species have had their genomes sequenced and their transcriptomes assembled. Therefore the availability of transcriptome data for a non-model crop plant species will allow for gene identification and comparisons between various species. The data has been sequenced using the Ilumina Hiseq 2500 sequencing platform. Data analysis is underway. In essence, this research will eventually evaluate the potential use of Marama Bean as a crop species to improve its value in agronomy. data for a non-model crop plant species will allow for gene identification and comparisons between various species. The data has been sequenced using the Ilumina Hiseq 2500 sequencing platform. Data analysis is underway. In essence, this researc will eventually evaluate the potential use of Marama bean as a crop species to improve its value in agronomy.

Keywords: 101 African orphan crops, RNA-Seq, Tylosema esculentum, underutilised crop plants

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Authors: Venkat Kamavaram, Ravi Pare

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Modern warfighters experience extreme environmental conditions in many of their operational and training activities. In temperatures exceeding 95°F, the body’s temperature regulation can no longer cool through convection and radiation. In this case, the only cooling mechanism is evaporation. However, evaporative cooling is often compromised by excessive humidity. Natural cooling mechanisms can be further compromised by clothing and protective gear, which trap hot air and moisture close to the body. Creating an efficient heat extraction apparel system that is also lightweight without hindering dexterity or mobility of personnel working in extreme temperatures is a difficult technical challenge and one that needs to be addressed to increase the probability for the future success of the US military. To address this challenge, Oceanit Laboratories, Inc. has developed and patented a Liquid Cooled Garment (LCG) more effective than any on the market today. Oceanit’s LCG is a form-fitting garment with a network of thermally conductive tubes that extracts body heat and can be worn under all authorized and chemical/biological protective clothing. Oceanit specifically designed and developed ThermoCore®, a thermally conductive polymer, for use in this apparel, optimizing the product for thermal conductivity, mechanical properties, manufacturability, and performance temperatures. Thermal Manikin tests were conducted in accordance with the ASTM test method, ASTM F2371, Standard Test Method for Measuring the Heat Removal Rate of Personal Cooling Systems Using a Sweating Heated Manikin, in an environmental chamber using a 20-zone sweating thermal manikin. Manikin test results have shown that Oceanit’s LCG provides significantly higher heat extraction under the same environmental conditions than the currently fielded Environmental Control Vest (ECV) while at the same time reducing the weight. Oceanit’s LCG vests performed nearly 30% better in extracting body heat while weighing 15% less than the ECV. There are NO cooling garments in the market that provide the same thermal extraction performance, form-factor, and reduced weight as Oceanit’s LCG. The two cooling garments that are commercially available and most commonly used are the Environmental Control Vest (ECV) and the Microclimate Cooling Garment (MCG).

Keywords: thermally conductive composite, tubing, garment design, form fitting vest, thermocore

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Authors: Tribhuvan N. Soorya

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Charging and discharging of a capacitor through a resistor can be shown as exponential curve. Theoretically, it takes infinite time to fully charge or discharge a capacitor. The flow of charge is due to electrons having finite and fixed value of charge. If we carefully examine the charging and discharging process after several time constants, the points on q vs t graph become discrete and curve become discontinuous. Moreover for all practical purposes capacitor with charge (q0-e) can be taken as fully charged, as it introduces an error less than one part per million. Similar is the case for discharge of a capacitor, where the capacitor with the last electron (charge e) can be taken as fully discharged. With this, we can estimate the finite value of time for fully charging and discharging a capacitor.

Keywords: charging, discharging, RC Circuit, capacitor

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Authors: Fatemeh Deldarabdolmaleki, Mohamad Fakri Zaky Bin Ja'afar

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This paper presents fenestration analysis to study the balance between utilizing daylight and eliminating the disturbing parameters in a private office room with interior venetian blinds taking into account different slat angles. Mean luminance of the scene and window, luminance ratio of the workplane and window, work plane illumination and daylight glare probability(DGP) were calculated as a function of venetian blind design properties. Recently developed software, analyzing High Dynamic Range Images (HDRI captured by CCD camera), such as radiance based evalglare and hdrscope help to investigate luminance-based metrics. A total of Eight-day measurement experiment was conducted to investigate the impact of different venetian blind angles in an office environment under daylight condition in Serdang, Malaysia. Detailed result for the selected case study showed that artificial lighting is necessary during the morning session for Malaysian buildings with southwest windows regardless of the venetian blind’s slat angle. However, in some conditions of afternoon session the workplane illuminance level exceeds the maximum illuminance of 2000 lx such as 10° and 40° slat angles. Generally, a rising trend is discovered toward mean window luminance level during the day. All the conditions have less than 10% of the pixels exceeding 2000 cd/m² before 1:00 P.M. However, 40% of the selected hours have more than 10% of the scene pixels higher than 2000 cd/m² after 1:00 P.M. Surprisingly in no blind condition, there is no extreme case of window/task ratio, However, the extreme cases happen for 20°, 30°, 40° and 50° slat angles. As expected mean window luminance level is higher than 2000 cd/m² after 2:00 P.M for most cases except 60° slat angle condition. Studying the daylight glare probability, there is not any DGP value higher than 0.35 in this experiment, due to the window’s direction, location of the building and studied workplane. Specifically, this paper reviews different blind angle’s response to the suggested metrics by the previous standards, and finally conclusions and knowledge gaps are summarized and suggested next steps for research are provided. Addressing these gaps is critical for the continued progress of the energy efficiency movement.

Keywords: daylighting, office environment, energy simulation, venetian blind

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Authors: Rosimeire Araújo Silva, Philip Martin Fearnside

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Extreme droughts and floods in the Amazon have serious consequences for natural ecosystems and the human population in the region. The frequency of these events has increased in recent years, and projections of climate change predict greater frequency and intensity of these events. Understanding the links between these extreme events and different patterns of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is essential, both to improve the modeling of climate change and its consequences and to support efforts of adaptation in the region. The relationship between sea temperatures and events in the Amazon is much more complex than is usually assumed in climatic models. Warming and cooling of different parts of the oceans, as well as the interaction between simultaneous temperature changes in different parts of each ocean and between the two oceans, have specific consequences for the Amazon, with effects on precipitation that vary in different parts of the region. Simplistic generalities, such as the association between El Niño events and droughts in the Amazon, do not capture this complexity. We investigated the variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the period 1950-2022, using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (FOE), spectral analysis coherence and wavelet phase. The two were identified as the main modes of variability, which explain about 53,9% and 13,3%, respectively, of the total variance of the data. The spectral and coherence analysis and wavelets phase showed that the first selected mode represents the warming in the central part of the Pacific Ocean (the “Central El Niño”), while the second mode represents warming in the eastern part of the Pacific (the “Eastern El Niño The effects of the 1982-1983 and 1976-1977 El Niño events in the Amazon, although both events were characterized by an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, the impact on rainfall in the Amazon was distinct. In the rainy season, from December to March, the sub-basins of the Japurá, Jutaí, Jatapu, Tapajós, Trombetas and Xingu rivers were the regions that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central (1982-1983), while the sub-basins of the Javari, Purus, Negro and Madeira rivers had the most pronounced reductions in the year of Eastern El Niño (1976-1977). In the transition to the dry season, in April, the greatest reductions were associated with the Eastern El Niño year for the majority of the study region, with the exception only of the sub-basins of the Madeira, Trombetas and Xingu rivers, which had their associated reductions to Central El Niño. In the dry season from July to September, the sub-basins of the Japurá Jutaí Jatapu Javari Trombetas and Madeira rivers were the rivers that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central, while the sub-basins of the Tapajós Purus Negro and Xingu rivers had the most pronounced reductions. In the Eastern El Niño year this season. In this way, it is possible to conclude that the Central (Eastern) El Niño controlled the reductions in soil moisture in the dry (rainy) season for all sub-basins shown in this study. Extreme drought events associated with these meteorological phenomena can lead to a significant increase in the occurrence of forest fires. These fires have a devastating impact on Amazonian vegetation, resulting in the irreparable loss of biodiversity and the release of large amounts of carbon stored in the forest, contributing to the increase in the greenhouse effect and global climate change.

Keywords: sea surface temperature, variability, climate, Amazon

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