Search results for: environmental risk assessment

Authors: Rupesh K. Chaudhary, Narinder P. Jain, Rajesh Mahajan, Rajat Manchanda

Abstract:

Introduction: Delirium is a complex, multifactorial neuropsychiatric syndrome comprising a broad range of cognitive and neurobehavioral symptoms. In critically ill patients, it may develop secondary to multiple predisposing factors. Although it can be transient and irreversible but if left untreated may lead to long term cognitive dysfunction. Early identification and assessment of risk factors usually help in appropriate management of delirium which in turn leads to decreased hospital stay, cost of therapy and mortality. Aim and Objective: Aim of the present study was to estimate the incidence of delirium using a validated scale in medical ICU patients and to determine the associated risk factors and outcomes. Material and Method: A prospective study in an 18-bed medical-intensive care unit (ICU) was undertaken. A total of 357 consecutive patients admitted to ICU for more than 24 hours were assessed. These patients were screened with the help of Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit -CAM-ICU, Richmond Agitation and Sedation Scale, Screening Checklist for delirium and APACHE II. Appropiate statistical analysis was done to evaluate the risk factors influencing mortality in delirium. Results: Delirium occurred in 54.6% of 194 patients. Risk of delirium was independently associated with a history of hypertension, diabetes but not with severity of illness APACHE II score. Delirium was linked to longer ICU stay 13.08 ± 9.6 ver 7.07 ± 4.98 days, higher ICU mortality (35.8% % vs. 17.0%). Conclusion: Our study concluded that delirium poses a great risk factor in the outcome of the patient and carries high mortality, so a timely intervention helps in addressing these issues.

Keywords: delirium, risk factors, outcome, intervention

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Lorifel Hinay

Abstract:

Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity in the Philippines over the years resulting to detrimental impacts in school properties and lives of learners. The topography of the Province of Southern Leyte is a hotspot for inevitable natural disaster-causing hazards that could affect schools, cripple the educational system and cause environmental, cultural and social detrimental impacts making Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) an indispensable platform to keep learners safe, secure and resilient. This study determined the schools’ vulnerability and risk assessment to earthquake, landslide, flood, storm surge and tsunami hazards, and its relationship to status in disaster preparedness. Descriptive-correlational research design was used where the respondents were School DRRM Coordinators/School Administrators and Municipal DRRM Officers. It was found that schools’ vulnerability and risk were high in landslide, medium in earthquake, and low in flood, storm surge and tsunami. Though schools were moderately prepared in disasters across all hazards, they were less accomplished in group organization and property security. Less planning preparation and less implementation of DRRM measures were observed in schools highly at risk of earthquake and landslide. Also, schools vulnerable to landslide and flood have very high property security. Topography and location greatly contributed to schools’ vulnerability to hazards, thus, a school-based disaster preparedness plan is hoped to help ensure that hazard-exposed schools can build a culture of safety, disaster resiliency and education continuity.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction and management, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm surge, tsunami

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Sri Yusnita Irda Sari, Deni Kurniadi Sunjaya, Ardini Saptaningsih Raksanagara

Abstract:

Water is one of the fundamental basic needs for human life, particularly drinking water sources. Although water quality is getting better, fecal-contamination of water is still found around the world, especially in the slum area of mid-low income countries. Drinking water source contamination in urban slum dwellers increases the risk of water borne diseases. Low level of sanitation and poor drinking water supply known as risk factors for diarrhea, moreover bacteria-contaminated drinking water source is the main cause of diarrhea in developing countries. This study aimed to assess risk infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination in various drinking water sources in urban area by applying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA). A Cross-sectional survey was conducted in a period of August to October 2015. Water samples were taken by simple random sampling from households in Cikapundung river basin which was one of urban slum area in the center of Bandung city, Indonesia. About 379 water samples from 199 households and 15 common wells were tested. Half of the households used treated drinking water from water gallon mostly refill water gallon which was produced in drinking water refill station. Others used raw water sources which need treatment before consume as drinking water such as tap water, borehole, dug well and spring water source. Annual risk to get infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination from highest to lowest risk was dug well (1127.9 x 10-5), spring water (49.7 x 10-5), borehole (1.383 x 10-5) and tap water (1.121 x 10-5). Annual risk infection of refill drinking water was 1.577 x 10-5 which is comparable to borehole and tap water. Household water treatment and storage to make raw water sources drinkable is essential to prevent risk of water borne diseases. Strong regulation and intense monitoring of refill water gallon quality should be prioritized by the government; moreover, distribution of tap water should be more accessible and affordable especially in urban slum area.

Keywords: drinking water, quantitative microbiological risk assessment, slum, urban

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Haluk Eren, Ümit Çelik

Abstract:

Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to attract intense interest. UAVs started to use for many different applications from military to civilian use. Some online retailer and logistics companies are testing the UAV delivery. UAVs have great potentials to reduce cost and time of deliveries and responding to emergencies in a short time. Despite these great positive sides, just a few works have been done for routing of UAVs for package deliveries. As known, transportation of goods from one place to another may have many hazards on delivery route due to falling hazards that can be exemplified as ground objects or air obstacles. This situation refers to wide-range insurance concept. For this reason, deliveries that are made with drones get into the scope of shipping insurance. On the other hand, air traffic was taken into account in the absence of unmanned aerial vehicle. But now, it has been a reality for aerial fields. In this study, the main goal is to conduct risk analysis of package delivery services using drone, based on delivery routes.

Keywords: aerial package delivery, insurance estimation, territory risk map, unmanned aerial vehicle, route risk estimation, drone risk assessment, drone package delivery

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Thanooja Naushad, Meena Natarajan, Tushar Vasant Kulkarni

Abstract:

Background: The Lacey Assessment of Preterm Infants (LAPI) is used in clinical practice to identify premature babies at risk of neuromotor impairments, especially cerebral palsy. This study attempted to find the validity of the Lacey assessment of preterm infants to predict neuromotor outcomes of premature babies at 12 months corrected age and to compare its predictive ability with the brain ultrasound. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 89 preterm infants (45 females and 44 males) born below 35 weeks gestation who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of a government hospital in Dubai. Initial assessment was done using the Lacey assessment after the babies reached 33 weeks postmenstrual age. Follow up assessment on neuromotor outcomes was done at 12 months (± 1 week) corrected age using two standardized outcome measures, i.e., infant neurological international battery and Alberta infant motor scale. Brain ultrasound data were collected retrospectively. Data were statistically analyzed, and the diagnostic accuracy of the Lacey assessment of preterm infants (LAPI) was calculated -when used alone and in combination with the brain ultrasound. Results: On comparison with brain ultrasound, the Lacey assessment showed superior specificity (96% vs. 77%), higher positive predictive value (57% vs. 22%), and higher positive likelihood ratio (18 vs. 3) to predict neuromotor outcomes at one year of age. The sensitivity of Lacey assessment was lower than brain ultrasound (66% vs. 83%), whereas specificity was similar (97% vs. 98%). A combination of Lacey assessment and brain ultrasound results showed higher sensitivity (80%), positive (66%), and negative (98%) predictive values, positive likelihood ratio (24), and test accuracy (95%) than Lacey assessment alone in predicting neurological outcomes. The negative predictive value of the Lacey assessment was similar to that of its combination with brain ultrasound (96%). Conclusion: Results of this study suggest that the Lacey assessment of preterm infants can be used as a supplementary assessment tool for premature babies in the neonatal intensive care unit. Due to its high specificity, Lacey assessment can be used to identify those babies at low risk of abnormal neuromotor outcomes at a later age. When used along with the findings of the brain ultrasound, Lacey assessment has better sensitivity to identify preterm babies at particular risk. These findings have applications in identifying premature babies who may benefit from early intervention services.

Keywords: brain ultrasound, lacey assessment of preterm infants, neuromotor outcomes, preterm

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Phayong Thepaksorn

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to assess whether living in proximity to a roofing fiber cement factory in southern Thailand was associated with physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains measured in a self-reported health risk assessment (HRA) questionnaire. A cross-sectional study was conducted among community members divided into two groups: near population (living within 0-2 km of factory) and far population (living within 2-5 km of factory)(N=198). A greater proportion of those living far from the factory (65.34%) reported physical health problems than the near group (51.04 %)(p=0.032). This study has demonstrated that the near population group had higher proportion of participants with positive ratings on mental assessment (30.34%) and social health impacts (28.42%) than far population group (10.59% and 16.67 %, respectively) (p<0.001). The near population group (29.79%) had similar proportion of participants with positive ratings in spiritual health impacts compared with far population group (27.08%). Among females, but not males, this study demonstrated that a higher proportion of the near population had a positive summative score for the self-HRA, which included all four health domain, compared to the far population (p <0.001 for females; p=0.154 for males). In conclusion, this self-HRA of physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains reflected the risk perceptions of populations living in the vicinity of the roofing fiber cement factory. This type of tool can bring attention to population concerns and complaints in the factory’s surrounding community. Our findings may contribute to future development of self-HRA for HIA development procedure in Thailand.

Keywords: cement dust, health impact assessment, risk assessment, walk-though survey

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Abdulrahman H. Alrashidi

Abstract:

Kuwait Oil Company provides health care services through Ahmadi hospital for oil sector employee and their families. Due to increasing number of entitled patients in Ahmadi hospital, the company starts health insurance option in 2010. In addition, a new Ahmadi hospital decided to build to accumulate all entitled patients. Operation and management of new Ahmadi hospital investigated in this research. In order to maintain the high quality of medical services and satisfaction rate among oil sector community and reducing the operation cost. Six operation and management options evaluated in order to implement in new Ahmadi hospital. Qualitative Risk assessment method used to investigate proposed options for operation and management of new Ahmadi hospital. Evaluation criteria consist of quality of medical services, operation cost and satisfaction rate among oil sector community. Results show that using the same operation and management system in existing Ahmadi hospital with new Ahmadi hospital will bring cost higher. This approach brings risk to KOC. Results from risk assessment show that partially operated new Ahmadi hospital is the best opportunity to meet the objectives of KOC’s medical group.

Keywords: Kuwait Oil Company, new Ahmadi hospital, operation and management, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: G. S. Dangayach, Gaurav Gaurav, Alok Bihari Singh

Abstract:

The popularity of vehicles in both industrialized and developing economies led to a rise in the production of tyres. People have become increasingly concerned about the tyre industry's possible environmental impact in the last two decades. The life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was used to assess the environmental impacts of industrial tyres throughout their life cycle, which included four stages: manufacture, transportation, consumption, and end-of-life. The majority of prior studies focused on tyre recycling and disposal. Only a few studies have been conducted on the environmental impact of tyre production process. LCA methodology was employed to determine the environmental impact of tyre manufacture process (gate to gate) at an Indian firm. Comparative analysis was also conducted to identify the environmental hotspots in various stages of tire manufacturing. This study is limited to gate-to-gate analysis of manufacturing processes with the functional unit of a single tyre weighing 50 kg. GaBi software was used to do both qualitative and quantitative analysis. Different environmental impact indicators are measured in terms of CO2, SO2, NOx, GWP (global warming potential), AP (acidification potential), EP (eutrophication potential), POCP (photochemical oxidant formation potential), and HTP (toxic human potential). The results demonstrate that the major contributor to environmental pollution is electricity. The Banbury process has a very high negative environmental impact, which causes respiratory problems to workers and operators.

Keywords: life cycle assessment (LCA), environmental impact indicators, tyre manufacturing process, environmental impact assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Samaneh Abolli, Mahmood Alimohammadi

Abstract:

The survey analyzed 71 bottled water brands in Tehran, Iran, examining 10 physicochemical parameters and 16 heavy metals. The water quality index (WQI) approach was used to assess water quality, and methods such as carcinogen risk (CR) and hazard index (HI) were employed to evaluate health risks. The results indicated that the bottled water had good quality overall, but some brands were of poor or very poor quality. The study also revealed significant human health risks, especially for children, due to the presence of minerals and heavy metals in bottled water. Correlation analyses and risk assessments for various substances were conducted, providing valuable insights into the potential health impacts of the analyzed bottled water.

Keywords: bottled wate, rwater quality index, health risk assessment, contamination degree, heavy metal evaluation index

Procedia PDF Downloads 25

Authors: Yusarina Mat-Isa, Zuraidah Mohd-Sanusi, Mohd-Nizal Haniff, Paul A. Barnes

Abstract:

In view that money laundering has become eminent for banking institutions, it is an obligation for the banking institutions to adopt a risk-based approach as the integral component of the accepted policies on anti-money laundering. In doing so, those involved with the banking operations are the most critical group of personnel as these are the people who deal with the day-to-day operations of the banking institutions and are obligated to form a judgement on the level of impending risk. This requirement is extended to all relevant banking institutions staff, such as tellers and customer account representatives for them to identify suspicious customers and escalate it to the relevant authorities. Banking institutions staffs, however, face enormous challenges in identifying and distinguishing money launderers from other legitimate customers seeking genuine banking transactions. Banking institutions staffs are mostly educated and trained with the business objective in mind to serve the customers and are not trained to be “detectives with a detective’s power of observation”. Despite increasing awareness as well as trainings conducted for the banking institutions staff, their competency in assessing money laundering risk is still insufficient. Several gaps have prompted this study including the lack of behavioural perspectives in the assessment of money laundering risk in the banking institutions. Utilizing experimental approach, respondents are randomly assigned within a controlled setting with manipulated situations upon which judgement of the respondents is solicited based on various observations related to the situations. The study suggests that it is imperative that informed judgement is exercised in arriving at the decision to proceed with the banking services required by the customers. Judgement forms a basis of opinion for the banking institution staff to decide if the customers posed money laundering risk. Failure to exercise good judgement could results in losses and absorption of unnecessary risk into the banking institutions. Although the banking institutions are exposed with choices of automated solutions in assessing money laundering risk, the human factor in assessing the risk is indispensable. Individual staff in the banking institutions is the first line of defence who are responsible for screening the impending risk of any customer soliciting for banking services. At the end of the spectrum, the individual role involvement on the subject of money laundering risk assessment is not a substitute for automated solutions as human judgement is inimitable.

Keywords: banking institutions, experimental approach, money laundering, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

Abstract:

This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Despoina Andrioti Bygvraa, Ida-Maja Hassellöv, George Charalambous

Abstract:

Exhaust gas cleaning systems, also known as scrubbers, are today widely used to allow for the use of High Sulphur Heavy Fuel Oil and still comply with the regulations limiting sulphur content in marine fuels. There are extensive concerns about environmental consequences, especially in the Baltic Sea, from the wide-scale use of scrubbers, as the wash water is acidic (ca pH 3) and contains high concentrations of toxic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic substances. The aim of this feasibility study is to investigate the potential adverse effects on seafarers’ health with the ultimate goal of raising awareness of chemical-related health and safety issues in the shipping environment. The project got funding from the Swedish Foundation. The team will extend previously compiled data on scrubber wash water concentrations of hazardous substances and pH to include the use of strong base in closed-loop scrubbers, and scoping assessment on handling and disposing practices. Based on the findings (a), a systematic review of risk assessment will follow to show the risk of exposures, the establishment of the hazardous levels for human health as well as the respective prevention practices. In addition, the researchers will perform (b) a systematic review to identify facilitators and barriers of the crew on compliance with the safe handling of chemicals. The study will run for 12 months, delivering (a) a risk assessment inventory with risk exposures and (b) a course description of safe handling practices. This feasibility study could provide valuable knowledge on how pollutants found in scrubbers should be considered from a human health perspective to facilitate evidence-based informed decisions in future technology- and policy development to make shipping a safer, healthier, and more attractive workplace.

Keywords: health and safety, seafarers, scrubbers, chemicals, risk exposures

Procedia PDF Downloads 21

Authors: Dianne Williams

Abstract:

This study examined the peer/individual domain of the Risk Factor Prevention Paradigm (RFPP) to assess the risk and protective factors that impact criminal gang involvement among at-risk males residing in a juvenile home in Trinidad and Tobago. The RFPP allows for the identification of both risk and protective factors in a single, holistic framework to identify the relationship between risk factors, protective factors, and criminal gang involvement among at-risk male adolescents. Findings showed that having anti-social peers was the most significant risk factor associated with criminal gang involvement, while the most significant protective factor was having a positive social attitude. Moreover, while 65% of the boys reported never having been in a gang, 70% reported having hit, struck or used a weapon against someone, while 52% reported being involved in other violent incidents on more than two occasions. This suggests that while involvement with criminal gangs may not be common among this population, predisposing behavioral patterns are present. Results are expected to assist in the development of targeted strategies to reduce the attractiveness of gang membership.

Keywords: risk factor prevention paradigm, risk factors, protective factors, peer/individual domain, gang involvement, at-risk youth, trinidad and tobago, juvenile home

Procedia PDF Downloads 567

Authors: Eduard Fosch-Villaronga

Abstract:

This paper pioneers Care Robot Impact Assessment (CRIA), a methodology used to identify, analyze, mitigate and eliminate the risks posed by the insertion of non-medical personal care robots (PCR) in medical care facilities. Its precedent instruments (Privacy and Surveillance Impact Assessment (PIA and SIA)) fall behind in coping with robots. Indeed, personal care robots change dramatically how care is delivered. The paper presents a specific risk-sector methodology, identifies which robots are under its scope and presents some of the challenges introduced by these robots.

Keywords: ethics, impact assessment, law, personal care robots

Procedia PDF Downloads 546

Authors: Guo-Hui Lu, Jing-Yi Cai, Ke-Yan Tan, Xiao-Cai Yin, Yu Zheng, Peng-Wei Shao, Yong-Liang Yang

Abstract:

Soil erosion around abandoned mines is one of the important geological agents for pollutant diffuses to the lower reaches of the local river basin system. River loading of pollutants is an important parameter for remediation of abandoned mines. In order to obtain information on pollutant transport and diffusion downstream in mining area, the small tributary system of the Xiaxi River in Wanshan District of Guizhou Province was selected as the research area. Sediment and suspended matter samples were collected and determined for Pb, As, Hg, Zn, Co, Cd, Cu, Ni, Cr, and Mn by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS) with the pretreatment of wet digestion. Discussions are made for pollution status and spatial distribution characteristics. The total Hg content in the sediments ranged from 0.45 to 16.0 g/g (dry weight) with an average of 5.79 g/g, which was ten times higher than the limit of Class II soil for mercury by the National Soil Environmental Quality Standard. The maximum occurred at the intersection of the Jin River and the Xiaxi River. The potential ecological hazard index (RI) was used to evaluate the ecological risk of heavy metals in the sediments. The average RI value for the whole study area suggests the high potential ecological risk level. High Cd potential ecological risk was found at individual sites.

Keywords: heavy metal, risk assessment, sediment, suspended matter, Wanshan mercury mine, small tributary system

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Sohanur Rahman, Elisabeth Sinnewe, Larelle (Ellie) Chapple, Sarah Osborne

Abstract:

Greater political attention to global climate change exposes firms to a higher level of political uncertainty, which can lead to adverse capital market consequences. However, a higher level of discourse on environment-specific political risk (EPR) between management and investors can mitigate information asymmetry, followed by less stock price crash risk. This study examines whether EPR discourse in discourse in the earnings conference calls (ECC) reduces firm-level stock price crash risk in the US market. This research also explores if adverse disclosures via media channels further moderates the association between EPR on crash risk. Employing a dataset of 28,933 firm-year observations from 2002 to 2020, the empirical analysis reveals that EPR discourse in ECC reduces future stock price crash risk. However, adverse disclosures via media channels can offset the favourable effect of EPR discourse on crash risk. The results are robust to the potential endogeneity concern in a quasi-natural experiment setting.

Keywords: earnings conference calls, environment, environment-specific political risk discourse, environmental disclosures, information asymmetry, reputation risk, stock price crash risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Ali Mortazavi

Abstract:

The main objective of this research project is to delve into a multitude of geomechanical risks associated with various mining methods employed within the underground mining industry. Controlling geotechnical design parameters and operational factors affecting the selection of suitable mining techniques for a given underground mining condition will be considered from a risk assessment point of view. Important geomechanical challenges will be investigated as appropriate and relevant to the commonly used underground mining methods. Given the complicated nature of rock mass in-situ and complicated boundary conditions and operational complexities associated with various underground mining methods, the selection of a safe and economic mining operation is of paramount significance. Rock failure at varying scales within the underground mining openings is always a threat to mining operations and causes human and capital losses worldwide. Geotechnical design is a major design component of all underground mines and basically dominates the safety of an underground mine. With regard to uncertainties that exist in rock characterization prior to mine development, there are always risks associated with inappropriate design as a function of mining conditions and the selected mining method. Uncertainty often results from the inherent variability of rock masse, which in turn is a function of both geological materials and rock mass in-situ conditions. The focus of this research is on developing a methodology which enables a geomechanical risk assessment of given underground mining conditions. The outcome of this research is a geotechnical risk analysis algorithm, which can be used as an aid in selecting the appropriate mining method as a function of mine design parameters (e.g., rock in-situ properties, design method, governing boundary conditions such as in-situ stress and groundwater, etc.).

Keywords: geomechanical risk assessment, rock mechanics, underground mining, rock engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Edinei Coser, Cátia Regina Silva de Carvalho Pinto, Kleber Isaac Silva de Souza

Abstract:

The road transportation system is an integral part of the Brazilian economy, so investing in this sector is paramount. Despite being a significant contributor to national and regional development, implementing road infrastructures brings about significant environmental changes, resulting in negative impacts that need to be mitigated through environmental licensing. However, by considering potential environmental impacts from a strategic perspective earlier, we can ensure that the sustainable development resulting from investments in this sector is more efficient. Therefore, this work aims to incorporate strategic environmental assessment into the road transportation system in the state of Santa Catarina using a tool that evaluates the entire territory. This tool analyzes 15 qualitative socio-environmental factors that may complicate environmental licensing and project implementation, with the help of multi-criteria analysis based on AHP and geographic information systems with Python, which presents a surface map of environmental cost for Santa Catarina state in Brazil. This map represents how environmental restrictions are spatially distributed in the territory and can be used for governments and decision-makers to assess potential areas for road implementation or paving, evaluate and propose road corridors, propose, promote, and evaluate risks for governmental programs and investments, set environmental management guidelines and enhance contracting and environmental assessment processes.

Keywords: environmental impact assessment., GIS, highways, multi-criteria analysis, strategic environmental assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 27

Authors: Alexander Guzman Urbina, Atsushi Aoyama

Abstract:

The sustainability of traditional technologies employed in energy and chemical infrastructure brings a big challenge for our society. Making decisions related with safety of industrial infrastructure, the values of accidental risk are becoming relevant points for discussion. However, the challenge is the reliability of the models employed to get the risk data. Such models usually involve large number of variables and with large amounts of uncertainty. The most efficient techniques to overcome those problems are built using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more specifically using hybrid systems such as Neuro-Fuzzy algorithms. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a hybrid algorithm for risk assessment trained using near-miss accident data. As mentioned above the sustainability of traditional technologies related with energy and chemical infrastructure constitutes one of the major challenges that today’s societies and firms are facing. Besides that, the adaptation of those technologies to the effects of the climate change in sensible environments represents a critical concern for safety and risk management. Regarding this issue argue that social consequences of catastrophic risks are increasing rapidly, due mainly to the concentration of people and energy infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, aggravated by the lack of knowledge about the risks. Additional to the social consequences described above, and considering the industrial sector as critical infrastructure due to its large impact to the economy in case of a failure the relevance of industrial safety has become a critical issue for the current society. Then, regarding the safety concern, pipeline operators and regulators have been performing risk assessments in attempts to evaluate accurately probabilities of failure of the infrastructure, and consequences associated with those failures. However, estimating accidental risks in critical infrastructure involves a substantial effort and costs due to number of variables involved, complexity and lack of information. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a well trained algorithm for risk assessment using deep learning, which could be capable to deal efficiently with the complexity and uncertainty. The advantage point of the deep learning using near-miss accidents data is that it could be employed in risk assessment as an efficient engineering tool to treat the uncertainty of the risk values in complex environments. The basic idea of using a Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines is focused in the objective of improve the validity of the risk values learning from near-miss accidents and imitating the human expertise scoring risks and setting tolerance levels. In summary, the method of Deep Learning for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment involves a regression analysis called group method of data handling (GMDH), which consists in the determination of the optimal configuration of the risk assessment model and its parameters employing polynomial theory.

Keywords: deep learning, risk assessment, neuro fuzzy, pipelines

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Hossam Shalabi, George Hadjisophocleous

Abstract:

The Canadian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) use some portions of NUREG/CR-6850 in carrying out Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). An assessment for the applicability of NUREG/CR-6850 to CANDU reactors was performed and a CANDU Fire PRA was introduced. There are 19 operating CANDU reactors in Canada at five sites (Bruce A, Bruce B, Darlington, Pickering and Point Lepreau). A fire load density survey was done for all Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis (FSSA) fire zones in all CANDU sites in Canada. National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 557 proposes that a fire load survey must be conducted by either the weighing method or the inventory method or a combination of both. The combination method results in the most accurate values for fire loads. An updated CANDU Fire PRA model is demonstrated in this paper that includes the fuel survey in all Canadian CANDU stations. A qualitative screening step for the CANDU fire PRA is illustrated in this paper to include any fire events that can damage any part of the emergency power supply in addition to FSSA cables.

Keywords: fire safety, CANDU, nuclear, fuel densities, FDS, qualitative analysis, fire probabilistic risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

Abstract:

Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Nur Azemah Aminludin, Osman Mohd Tahir

Abstract:

A dynamic landscape development is important for providing healthy ecosystem which supports all life. Nowadays, many initiatives towards sustainable development have been published. They lead to better living and more efficient use of natural resources in sustaining long-term ecological, economics and social benefits. To date, many assessment tools related to built environment have been established and practiced in this region, which mostly has the purpose assessing the environment performance of buildings. Hence, an assessment tool focusing on the sustainable landscape development itself is a necessity. This paper reviews the assessment criteria and indicators that are suitable for sustainable landscape development practices. The local and global assessment tools for landscape development are investigated, analyzed and discussed critically. Consideration also is given to the integration of the assessment tools with the surrounding environmental, social, and economical aspects. In addition, the assessment criteria and indicators for assessing the landscape development in Malaysia are also reviewed and discussed. In conclusion, this paper reviews, analyzes and discusses on available local and global landscape development assessment tools for sustainability.

Keywords: assessment tool, sustainable landscape development, assessment criteria, assessment indicator

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Freddy Houndekindo

Abstract:

A study was carried out to evaluate the flood risk in the district of Malanville located along the Niger River. The knowledge produce by this study is useful in the implementation of adaptation and/or mitigation measures to alleviate the impact of the flooding on the populations, the economy and the environment. Over the course of the study, the lack of data in the area of interest has been one of the main challenges encountered. Therefore, in the analysis of the flood hazard different sources of remotely sensed data were used. Moreover, the flood hazard was analysed by applying a 1D hydraulic model: HEC-RAS. After setting up the model for the study area, the different flood scenarios considered were simulated and mapped using ArcGIS and the HEC-GEORAS extension. The result of the simulation gave information about the inundated areas and the water depths at each location. From the analysis of the flood hazard, it was found that between 47% and 50% of the total area of the district of Malanville would be flooded in the different flood scenarios considered, and the water depth varies between 1 and 7 m. The townships of Malanville most at risk of flooding are Momkassa and Galiel, located in a high-risk and very high-risk zone, respectively. Furthermore, the assessment of the flood risk showed that the most vulnerable sector to the inundations is the agricultural sector. Indeed, the cultivated floodplains were the most affected areas by the floodwater in every flood scenarios. Knowing that a high proportion of the population of the district relies on their farmlands in these floodplains for their livelihood, the floods pose a challenge not only to the food security in the area but also to its development.

Keywords: flood risk management, Niger, remote sensing, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Pırıl Tekin, Rızvan Erol

Abstract:

Risk management has become very important and popular in developing countries in recent years. Especially making patient and employee health and safety issues compulsory in the hospitals, raised the number of studies in Turkey. Also risk management become more important for hospital senior management from clinics to the laboratories. Because quality is really important to be chosen for both patients to consult and employees to prefer to work. And also risk management studies can lead to hospital management team about future works and methods. By this point of view, this study is the risk assessment carried out in the biggest dental hospital in the south part of Turkey. This study was conducted as a research case study, covering two different health care place; A Clinic and A Laboratory. It shows that the problems in this dental hospital and how it can solve all.

Keywords: risk management, healthcare, dental hospital, quality management

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Haykal. Kay-Anne

Abstract:

The health and well-being of students is a priority for the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Ottawa. The demands of medical studies are extreme, and many studies confirm that the prevalence of psychological distress is very high among medical students and that it is higher than that of the general population of the same age. The main goal is to identify risk factors for mental health among medical students at the University of Ottawa. The secondary objectives are to determine the variation of these risk factors according to demographic variables, as well as to determine if there is a change in the mental health of students during the 1st and 3rd years of their study. Medical students have a mandatory first and third-year wellness check meeting. This assessment includes a questionnaire on demographic information, mental health, and risk factors such as physical health, sleep, social support, financial stress, education and career, stress and drug use and/or alcohol. Student responses were converted to numerical values and analyzed statistically. The results show that 61% of the variation in the mean of the mental health score is explained by the following risk factors (R2 = 0.61, F (9.396) = 67.197, p < 0.01): lack of sleep and fatigue (β = 0.281, p < 0.001), lack of social support (β = 0.217, p <0.001), poor study or career development (β = 0.195, p < 0.001) and an increase stress and drug and alcohol use (β = -0.239, p < 0.001). No demographic variable has a significant effect on the presence of risk factors. In addition, fixed-effects regression demonstrated significantly lower mental health (p < 0.1) among first-year students (M = 0.587, SD = 0.072) than among third-year students (M = 0.719, SD = 0.071). This preliminary study indicates the need to continue data collection and analysis to increase the significance of the study results. As risk factors are present at the beginning of medical studies, it is important to offer resources to students very early in their medical studies and to have close monitoring and supervision.

Keywords: assessment of mental health, medical students, risk factors for mental health, wellness assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Guldana Zhigerbayeva, Ming Yang

Abstract:

Transportation of hazardous materials (HAZMAT) is inevitable in the process industries. The statistics show a significant number of accidents has occurred during the transportation of HAZMAT. This makes risk management of HAZMAT transportation an important topic. The tree-based methods including fault-trees, event-trees and cause-consequence analysis, and Bayesian network, have been applied to risk management of HAZMAT transportation. However, there is limited work on the development of a systematic approach. The existing approaches fail to build up the linkages between the regulatory requirements and the safety measures development. The analysis of historical data from the past accidents’ report databases would limit our focus on the specific incidents and their specific causes. Thus, we may overlook some essential elements in risk management, including regulatory compliance, field expert opinions, and suggestions. A systematic approach is needed to translate the regulatory requirements of HAZMAT transportation into specified safety measures (both technical and administrative) to support the risk management process. This study aims to first adapt the House of Quality (HoQ) to House of Safety (HoS) and proposes a new approach- Safety Function Deployment (SFD). The results of SFD will be used in a multi-criteria decision-support system to develop find an optimal route for HazMats transportation. The proposed approach will be demonstrated through a hypothetical transportation case in Kazakhstan.

Keywords: hazardous materials, risk assessment, risk management, quality function deployment

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli

Abstract:

Statement of the problem: The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular diseases has been studied widely(1). The distribution of fat tissue gained attention in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during lang-time research (2). American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) is widely and the most reliable tool to be used as a cardiovascular risk (CVR) assessment tool(3). This study aimed to determine which anthropometric index is better in discrimination of high CVR patients from low risks using ACC/AHA score in addition to finding the best index as a CVR predictor among both genders in different races and countries. Methodology & theoretical orientation: The literature in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched by two independent investigators using the keywords "anthropometric indices," "cardiovascular risk," and "obesity." The search strategy was limited to studies published prior to Jan 2022 as full-texts in the English language. Studies using ACC/AHA risk assessment tool as CVR and those consisted at least 2 anthropometric indices (ancient ones and novel ones) are included. Study characteristics and data were extracted. The relative risks were pooled with the use of the random-effect model. Analysis was repeated in subgroups. Findings: Pooled relative risk for 7 studies with 16,348 participants were 1.56 (1.35-1.72) for BMI, 1.67(1.36-1.83) for WC [waist circumference], 1.72 (1.54-1.89) for WHR [waist-to-hip ratio], 1.60 (1.44-1.78) for WHtR [waist-to-height ratio], 1.61 (1.37-1.82) for ABSI [A body shape index] and 1.63 (1.32-1.89) for CI [Conicity index]. Considering gender, WC among females and WHR among men gained the highest RR. The heterogeneity of studies was moderate (α²: 56%), which was not decreased by subgroup analysis. Some indices such as VAI and LAP were evaluated just in one study. Conclusion & significance: This meta-analysis showed WHR could predict CVR better in comparison to BMI or WHtR. Some new indices like CI and ABSI are less accurate than WHR and WC. Among women, WC seems to be a better choice to predict cardiovascular disease risk.

Keywords: obesity, cardiovascular disease, risk assessment, anthropometric indices

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Berrin Şentürk

Abstract:

In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: Bronwen Wade

Abstract:

Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

Procedia PDF Downloads 26

Authors: Haïfa Ben Mna, Ayed Added

Abstract:

To evaluate the trace metals contamination status in the Gulf of Tunis, forty one sediment samples were analyzed using different approaches. According to certain contamination and ecological risk indices (Contamination Factor, Geoaccumulation index and Ecological risk index), Hg has the highest contamination level while pollution by Ni, Pb, Cd and Cr was absent. The highest concentrations of trace metals were found in sediments collected from the offshore and coastal areas located opposite the main exchange points with the gulf particularly, the Mejerda and Meliane Rivers, the Khalij Channel, Ghar El Melh and El Malah lagoons, Tunis Lake and Sebkhat Ariana. However, further ecological indices (Potential ecological risk index, Toxic unit and Mean effect-range median quotient) and comparison with sediment quality guidelines suggest that in addition to Mercury, Cr, Pb and Ni concentrations are detrimental to biota in both the offshore and areas near to the exchange points with the gulf. Moreover, in these areas the results from sequential extraction and individual contamination factor calculation pointed to the mobility and bioavailability of Cr, Pb and Ni.

Keywords: sediment, trace metals, contamination assessment, ecological risk, Tunis gulf

Procedia PDF Downloads 60