Search results for: energy demand forecasting

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Qamar Iqbal

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Companies strive to improve their forecasting methods to predict the fluctuations in customer demand. These fluctuation and variation in demand affect the manufacturing operations and can limit a company’s ability to fulfill customer demand on time. Companies keep the inventory buffer and maintain the stocking levels to reduce the impact of demand variation. A mid-size company deals with thousands of stock keeping units (skus). It is neither easy and nor efficient to control and manage each sku. Inventory classification provides a tool to the management to increase their ability to support customer demand. The paper presents a framework that shows how inventory classification can play a role to increase supply chain responsiveness. A case study will be presented to further elaborate the method both for build-to-order and build-to-forecast manufacturing environments. Results will be compared that will show which manufacturing setting has advantage over another under different circumstances. The outcome of this study is very useful to the management because this will give them an insight on how inventory classification can be used to increase their ability to respond to changing customer needs.

Keywords: inventory classification, supply chain responsiveness, forecast, manufacturing environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 571

Authors: K.Ishii, T. Furuichi, A. Fujiyama, S. Hariya

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Rice straw pellets are a promising fuel as a renewable energy source. Financial analysis is needed to make a utilization system using rise straw pellets financially feasible, considering all regional conditions including stakeholders related to the collection and storage, production, transportation and heat utilization. We conducted the financial analysis of feasibility for a heat utilization system using rice straw pellets which has been developed for the first time in Nanporo, Hokkaido, Japan. Especially, we attempted to clarify the effect of factors required for the system to be financial feasibility, such as the heating energy demand and collection and storage method of rice straw. The financial feasibility was found to improve when increasing the heating energy demand and collecting wheat straw in August separately from collection of rice straw in November because the costs of storing rice straw and producing pellets were reduced. However, the system remained financially unfeasible. This study proposed a contractor program funded by a subsidy from Nanporo local government where a contracted company, instead of farmers, collects and transports rice straw in order to ensure the financial feasibility of the system, contributing to job creation in the region.

Keywords: rice straw, pellets, heating energy demand, collection, storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

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Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

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Authors: Antonin Jolly, Bertrand Aubry, Corentin Michel, Rebecca Freva

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Wind energy depends on wind strength and varies largely in time. When it is above the demand, it generates a loss while in the opposite case; energy needs are not fully satisfied. To overcome this problem specific to irregular energies, the process of pumped-storage hydroelectricity (PSH) is studied in present paper. A combination of wind turbine and pumped storage system is more predictable and is more compliant to provide electricity supply according to daily demand. PSH system is already used in several countries to accumulate electricity by pumping water during off-peak times into a storage reservoir, and to use it during peak times to produce energy. Present work discusses a feasibility study on size and financial productivity of PSH system actuated with wind turbines specific power.

Keywords: wind turbine, hydroelectricity, energy storage, pumped-storage hydroelectricity

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Serkan Aras, Emrah Gulay

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Combining various forecasting models is an important tool for researchers to attain more accurate forecasts. A great number of papers have shown that selecting single models as dissimilar models, or methods based on different information as possible leads to better forecasting performances. However, there is not a certain rule regarding the number of single models to be used in any combining methods. This study focuses on determining the optimal or near optimal number for single models with the help of statistical tests. An extensive experiment is carried out by utilizing some well-known time series data sets from diverse fields. Furthermore, many rival forecasting methods and some of the commonly used combining methods are employed. The obtained results indicate that some statistically significant performance differences can be found regarding the number of the single models in the combining methods under investigation.

Keywords: combined forecast, forecasting, M-competition, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Cyril Agochi Okorowo

Abstract:

More than ever human activity relating to uncontrolled greenhouse gas (GHG) and its effects on the earth is gaining greater attention in the global academic and policy discussions. Activities of man have greatly influenced climate change over the years as a result of a consistent increase in the use of fossil fuel energy. Scientists and researchers globally are making significant and devoted efforts towards the development and implementation of renewable energy technologies that are harmless to the environment. One of such energy is solar energy with its source from the sun. There are currently two primary ways of harvesting this energy from the sun: through photovoltaic (PV) panels and through thermal collectors. This work discusses solar energy as the abundant renewable energy in the tropical Nigeria, processes of harvesting the energy and recommends solar energy as an alternative means of electric power generation in a time the demand for power in Nigeria supersedes supply.

Keywords: analysis, energy, design, solar

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Elena Tkachenko, Elena Rogova, Daria Koval

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The paper examines the ways of cash flows forecasting in the dynamic external environment. The so-called new reality in economy lowers the predictability of the companies’ performance indicators due to the lack of long-term steady trends in external conditions of development and fast changes in the markets. The traditional methods based on the trend analysis lead to a very high error of approximation. The macroeconomic situation for the last 10 years is defined by continuous consequences of financial crisis and arising of another one. In these conditions, the instruments of forecasting on the basis of fuzzy sets show good results. The fuzzy sets based models turn out to lower the error of approximation to acceptable level and to provide the companies with reliable cash flows estimation that helps to reach the financial stability. In the paper, the applicability of the model of cash flows forecasting based on fuzzy logic was analyzed.

Keywords: cash flow, industrial enterprise, forecasting, fuzzy sets

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Authors: Aliyu Mohammed Lawal

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The problems placed on the environment as a result of energy generation and usage in Nigeria is: potential damage to the environment health by CO, CO2, SOx, and NOx, effluent gas emissions and global warming. For instance in the year 2004 in Nigeria energy consumption was 58% oil and 34% natural gas but about 94 million metric tons of CO2 was emitted out of which 64% came from fossil fuels while about 35% came from fuel wood. The findings from this research on how to alleviate these problems are that long term sustainable development solutions should be enhanced globally; energy should be used more rationally renewable energy resources should be exploited and the existing emissions should be controlled to tolerate limits because the increase in energy demand in Nigeria places enormous strain on current energy facilities.

Keywords: effluent gas, emissions, NOx, SOx

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: Lim Sanny, Felix Christian

Abstract:

The use of heavy equipment in Indonesia is always increasing. Cost reduction in procurement of spare parts is the aim of the company. The spare parts in this research are focused in the kind of filters. On the early step, the choosing of priority filter will be studied further by using the ABC analysis. To find out future demand of the filter, this research is using demand forecast by utilizing the QM software for windows. And to find out the best method of inventory control for each kind of filter is by comparing the total cost of Economic Order Quantity and Quick response inventory method. For the three kind of filters which are Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123, Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, and Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054, the best forecasting method is Linear regression. The best method for inventory control of Cartridge, Engine oil – pn : 600-211-123 and Element, Transmission – pn : 424-16-11140, is Quick Response Inventory, while the best method for Element, Hydraulic – pn : 07063-01054 is Economic Order Quantity.

Keywords: strategy, inventory, ABC analysis, forecasting, economic order quantity, quick response inventory

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Authors: Eyad Almaita

Abstract:

In this paper, a novel adaptive Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFNN) algorithm is used to forecast the hour by hour electrical load demand in Jordan. A small and effective RBFNN model is used to forecast the hourly total load demand based on a small number of features. These features are; the load in the previous day, the load in the same day in the previous week, the temperature in the same hour, the hour number, the day number, and the day type. The proposed adaptive RBFNN model can enhance the reliability of the conventional RBFNN after embedding the network in the system. This is achieved by introducing an adaptive algorithm that allows the change of the weights of the RBFNN after the training process is completed, which will eliminates the need to retrain the RBFNN model again. The data used in this paper is real data measured by National Electrical Power co. (Jordan). The data for the period Jan./2012-April/2013 is used train the RBFNN models and the data for the period May/2013- Sep. /2013 is used to validate the models effectiveness.

Keywords: load forecasting, adaptive neural network, radial basis function, short-term, electricity consumption

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan, Murat Ahmet Ökmen

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Emerging demand for energy in developing countries rapid population growth and industrialization are causing a rapid increase, such as Turkey. Energy is an important and indispensable factor in the industry. At the same time, energy is one of the main indicators that reflect a country's economic and social development potential. There is a linear relationship between the energy consumption and social development, and in parallel this situation, it is seen that energy consumption increase with economic growth and prosperity. In recent year’s, energy sources consumption is increasingly continuing, because of population growth and economy in Turkey. 80% of the energy used in Turkey is supplied from abroad. At the same time, while almost all of the energy obtained from our country is met by hydropower. Alternatively, studies of determining and using potential renewable energy sources such as solar energy have been realized for recent years. In this study, first of all, the situation of energy sources was examined in Turkey. Information of reserve/capacity, production and consumption values of energy sources were emphasized. For this purpose, energy production and consumption, CO2 emission and electricity energy consumption of countries were investigated. Energy consumption and electricity energy consumption per capita were comparatively analyzed.

Keywords: energy potential, alternative energy sources, solar energy, Turkey

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Authors: Kateryna Zharan, Jan C. Bongaerts

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In recent years, economic attractiveness of renewable energy (RE) for the mining industry, especially for off-grid mines, and a negative environmental impact of fossil energy are stimulating to use RE for mining needs. Being that remote area mines have higher energy expenses than mines connected to a grid, integration of RE may give a mine economic benefits. Regarding the literature review, there is a lack of business models for adopting of RE at mine. The main aim of this paper is to develop an optimized model of RE integration into the German mining industry (GMI). Hereby, the GMI with amount of around 800 mill. t. annually extracted resources is included in the list of the 15 major mining country in the world. Accordingly, the mining potential of Germany is evaluated in this paper as a perspective market for RE implementation. The GMI has been classified in order to find out the location of resources, quantity and types of the mines, amount of extracted resources, and access of the mines to the energy resources. Additionally, weather conditions have been analyzed in order to figure out where wind and solar generation technologies can be integrated into a mine with the highest efficiency. Despite the fact that the electricity demand of the GMI is almost completely covered by a grid connection, the hybrid energy system (HES) based on a mix of RE and fossil energy is developed due to show environmental and economic benefits. The HES for the GMI consolidates a combination of wind turbine, solar PV, battery and diesel generation. The model has been calculated using the HOMER software. Furthermore, the demonstrated HES contains a forecasting model that predicts solar and wind generation in advance. The main result from the HES such as CO2 emission reduction is estimated in order to make the mining processing more environmental friendly.

Keywords: diesel generation, German mining industry, hybrid energy system, hybrid optimization model for electric renewables, optimized model, renewable energy

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Authors: Razieh Khalafi

Abstract:

Myocardial infarction (MI) or acute myocardial infarction (AMI), commonly known as a heart attack, occurs when blood flow stops to part of the heart causing damage to the heart muscle. An ECG can often show evidence of a previous heart attack or one that's in progress. The patterns on the ECG may indicate which part of your heart has been damaged, as well as the extent of the damage. In chaos theory, the correlation dimension is a measure of the dimensionality of the space occupied by a set of random points, often referred to as a type of fractal dimension. In this research by considering ECG signal as a random walk we work on forecasting the oncoming heart attack by analyzing the ECG signals using the correlation dimension. In order to test the model a set of ECG signals for patients before and after heart attack was used and the strength of model for forecasting the behavior of these signals were checked. Results shows this methodology can forecast the ECG and accordingly heart attack with high accuracy.

Keywords: heart attack, ECG, random walk, correlation dimension, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 503

Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: wind resource assessment, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, python, GIS software

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Authors: Michele Catalano, Jacopo Di Domenico, Luca Riccetti, Andrea Teglio

Abstract:

We develop a data-driven agent based model (ABM) for the Italian economy. We calibrate the model for the initial condition and parameters. As a preliminary step, we replicate the Monte-Carlo simulation for the Austrian economy. Then, we evaluate the dynamic properties of the model: the long-run equilibrium and the allocative efficiency in terms of disequilibrium patterns arising in the search and matching process for final goods, capital, intermediate goods, and credit markets. In this perspective, we use a randomized initial condition approach. We perform a robustness analysis perturbing the system for different parameter setups. We explore the empirical properties of the model using a rolling window forecast exercise from 2010 to 2022 to observe the model’s forecasting ability in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. We perform an analysis of the properties of the model with a different number of agents, that is, with different scales of the model compared to the real economy. The model generally displays transient dynamics that properly fit macroeconomic data regarding forecasting ability. We stress the model with a large set of shocks, namely interest policy, fiscal policy, and exogenous factors, such as external foreign demand for export. In this way, we can explore the most exposed sectors of the economy. Finally, we modify the technology mix of the various sectors and, consequently, the underlying input-output sectoral interdependence to stress the economy and observe the long-run projections. In this way, we can include in the model the generation of endogenous crisis due to the implied structural change, technological unemployment, and potential lack of aggregate demand creating the condition for cyclical endogenous crises reproduced in this artificial economy.

Keywords: agent-based models, behavioral macro, macroeconomic forecasting, micro data

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Authors: Razi Khalafi

Abstract:

Myocardial Infarction (MI) or acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI), commonly known as a heart attack, occurs when blood flow stops to part of the heart causing damage to the heart muscle. An ECG can often show evidence of a previous heart attack or one that's in progress. The patterns on the ECG may indicate which part of your heart has been damaged, as well as the extent of the damage. In chaos theory, the correlation dimension is a measure of the dimensionality of the space occupied by a set of random points, often referred to as a type of fractal dimension. In this research by considering ECG signal as a random walk we work on forecasting the oncoming heart attack by analysing the ECG signals using the correlation dimension. In order to test the model a set of ECG signals for patients before and after heart attack was used and the strength of model for forecasting the behaviour of these signals were checked. Results show this methodology can forecast the ECG and accordingly heart attack with high accuracy.

Keywords: heart attack, ECG, random walk, correlation dimension, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 467

Authors: Arvind Dhingra, Tejinder Singh Saggu

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As the energy demands rise and the pollution levels grow, it becomes imperative for us to save energy in all the fields in which it is used. The industrial sector is the major commercial energy consuming sector in India, where electrical energy is the most common and widely used type of energy. As the demand and price of energy are increasing day by day, therefore, the subject of energy conservation is a concern for most energy users particularly industry. Judicious use of energy becomes imperative for third world developing country being presence of energy crisis. This paper provides some measure for energy saving that can be commonly recommended for a rolling unit of steel industry. A case of hot rolling unit in JSL Stainless Ltd., Hisar for energy conservation is given. Overall improvement in energy consumption in light of the stated recommendation is illustrated along with the proposed utilization of the techniques and their applications. Energy conservation in conventional motor with replacement or use of star delta star converter, reduction in cable losses, replacement of filament of LED lamps, replacement of conventional transformer with cast resin dry type transformer and provision of energy management system for energy conservation and per unit production cost reduction are elaborated in this paper.

Keywords: energy audit, energy conservation, energy efficient motors

Procedia PDF Downloads 494

Authors: Okorowo Cyril Agochi

Abstract:

More than ever human activity relating to uncontrolled greenhouse gas (GHG) and its effects on the earth is gaining greater attention in the global academic and policy discussions. Activities of man has greatly influenced climate change over the years as a result of consistent increase in the use of fossil fuel energy. Scientists and researchers globally are making significant and devoted efforts towards the development and implementation of renewable energy technologies that are harmless to the environment. One of such energy is solar energy with its source from the sun. There are currently two primary ways of harvesting this energy from the sun: through photovoltaic (PV) panels and through thermal collectors. This work discuses solar energy the abundant renewable energy in the tropical Nigeria, processes of harvesting and recommends same as an alternative means of electric power generation in a time the demand for power supersedes supply.

Keywords: electric, power, renewable energy, solar energy, sun, tropical

Procedia PDF Downloads 511

Authors: P. Brinks, O. Kornadt, R. Oly

Abstract:

This research focuses on the optimization of glazed surfaces and the assessment of possible solar gains in industrial buildings. Existing window rating methods for single windows were evaluated and a new method for a simple analysis of energy gains and losses by single windows was introduced. Furthermore extensive transient building simulations were carried out to appraise the performance of low cost polycarbonate multi-cell sheets in interaction with typical buildings for industrial applications. Mainly, energy-saving potential was determined by optimizing the orientation and area of such glazing systems in dependency on their thermal qualities. Moreover the impact on critical aspects such as summer overheating and daylight illumination was considered to ensure the user comfort and avoid additional energy demand for lighting or cooling. Hereby the simulated heating demand could be reduced by up to 1/3 compared to traditional architecture of industrial halls using mainly skylights.

Keywords: solar architecture, Passive Solar Building Design, glazing, Low-Energy Buildings, industrial buildings

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Authors: Norshazmira Mat Azmi, Sayidal El Fatimah Masnan, Shatirah Akib

Abstract:

Boundless renewable energy, such as tidal energy, tidal current energy, wave energy, thermal energy and chemical energy are covered and possessed by oceans. The hybrid system helps in improving the economic and environmental sustainability of renewable energy systems to fulfill the energy demand. The objective and concept of hybridizing renewable energy is to meet the desired system requirements, with the lowest value of the energy cost. This paper reviews applications of using hybrid power generation system for remote area. It also highlights the future directions to investigate the impacts of surface waves on turbine design and performance. The importance of understanding the site-specific wave conditions could also been explored.

Keywords: hybrid, marine current energy, tidal turbine, wave turbine

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina

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Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

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We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

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Authors: Yuichi Miyamoto

Abstract:

In regards to the energy sector in the modern period, two points were raised. First is a vast and growing energy demand, and second is an environmental impact associated with it. The enormous consumption of fossil fuel to the mobile unit is leading to its rapid depletion. Nuclear power is not the only problem. A modal shift that utilizes personal transporters and independent power, in order to realize a sustainable society, is very effective. The paper proposes that the world will continue to work on this. Energy of the future society, innovation in battery technology and the use of natural energy is a big key. And it is also necessary in order to save on energy consumption.

Keywords: natural energy, modal shift, personal transportation, battery

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Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market

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Authors: Helene Thieblemont, Fariborz Haghighat

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Energy storage systems play a crucial role in decreasing building energy consumption during peak periods and expand the use of renewable energies in buildings. To provide a high building thermal performance, the energy storage system has to be properly controlled to insure a good energy performance while maintaining a satisfactory thermal comfort for building’s occupant. In the case of passive discharge storages, defining in advance the required amount of energy is required to avoid overheating in the building. Consequently, anticipatory supervisory control strategies have been developed forecasting future energy demand and production to coordinate systems. Anticipatory supervisory control strategies are based on some predictions, mainly of the weather forecast. However, if the forecasted hourly outdoor temperature may be found online with a high accuracy, solar radiations predictions are most of the time not available online. To estimate them, this paper proposes an advanced approach based on the forecast of weather conditions. Several methods to correlate hourly weather conditions forecast to real hourly solar radiations are compared. Results show that using weather conditions forecast allows estimating with an acceptable accuracy solar radiations of the next day. Moreover, this technique allows obtaining hourly data that may be used for building models. As a result, this solar radiation prediction model may help to implement model-based controller as Model Predictive Control.

Keywords: anticipatory control, model predictive control, solar radiation forecast, thermal storage

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Authors: Norshazmira Mat Azmi, Sayidal El Fatimah Masnan, Shatirah Akib

Abstract:

More than 70% of the Earth is covered by oceans, which are considered to possess boundless renewable energy, such as tidal energy, tidal current energy, wave energy, thermal energy, and chemical energy. The hybrid system help in improving the economic and environmental sustainability of renewable energy systems to fulfill the energy demand. The concept of hybridizing renewable energy is to meet the desired system requirements, with the lowest value of the energy cost. This paper propose a hybrid power generation system suitable for remote area application and highlight the impact of surface waves on turbine design and performance, and the importance of understanding the site-specific wave conditions.

Keywords: marine current energy, tidal turbines, wave turbine, renewable energy, surface waves, hydraulic flume experiments, instantaneous wave phase

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Authors: Selamawit Dires, Solomon Tesfamariam, Thomas Tannert

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Modern earthquake engineering and design encompass performance-based design philosophy. The main objective in performance-based design is to achieve a system performing precisely to meet the design objectives so to reduce unintended seismic risks and associated losses. Energy-based earthquake-resistant design is one of the design methodologies that can be implemented in performance-based earthquake engineering. In energy-based design, the seismic demand is usually described as the ratio of the hysteretic to input energy. Once the hysteretic energy is known as a percentage of the input energy, it is distributed among energy-dissipating components of a structure. The hysteretic to input energy ratio is highly dependent on the inherent damping of a structural system. In numerical analysis, damping can be modeled as stiffness-proportional, mass-proportional, or a linear combination of stiffness and mass. In this study, the effect of mathematical modeling of damping on the estimation of seismic energy demands is investigated by considering elastic-perfectly-plastic single-degree-of-freedom systems representing short to long period structures. Furthermore, the seismicity of Vancouver, Canada, is used in the nonlinear time history analysis. According to the preliminary results, the input energy demand is not sensitive to the type of damping models deployed. Hence, consistent results are achieved regardless of the damping models utilized in the numerical analyses. On the other hand, the hysteretic to input energy ratios vary significantly for the different damping models.

Keywords: damping, energy-based seismic design, hysteretic energy, input energy

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Authors: Marriette Sakah, Christoph Kuhn, Samuel Gyamfi

Abstract:

Global electricity demand of households in 2005 is estimated to double by 2025 and nearly double again in 2030. The residential sector promises considerable demand growth through infrastructural and equipment investments, the majority of which is projected to occur in developing countries. This lays bare the urgency for enhanced efficiency in all energy systems combined with exploitation of local potential for renewable energy systems. This study explores options for reducing energy consumption, particularly in residential buildings and providing robust, decentralized and renewable energy supply for African cities. The potential of energy efficiency measures and the potential of harnessing local resources for renewable energy supply are quantitatively assessed. The scale of research specifically addresses the city level, which is regulated by local authorities. Local authorities can actively promote the transition to a renewable-based energy supply system by promoting energy efficiency and the use of alternative renewable fuels in existing buildings, and particularly in planning and development of new settlement areas through the use of incentives, regulations, and demonstration projects. They can also support a more sustainable development by shaping local land use and development patterns in such ways that reduce per capita energy consumption and are benign to the environment. The subject of the current case study, Tema, is Ghana´s main industrial hub, a port city and home to 77,000 families. Residential buildings in Tema consumed 112 GWh of electricity in 2013 or 1.45 MWh per household. If average household electricity demand were to decline at an annual rate of just 2 %, by 2035 Tema would consume only 134 GWh of electricity despite an expected increase in the number of households by 84 %. The work is based on a ground survey of the city’s residential sector. The results show that efficient technologies and decentralized renewable energy systems have great potential for meeting the rapidly growing energy demand of cities in developing countries.

Keywords: energy efficiency, energy saving potential, renewable energy integration, residential buildings, urban Africa

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