Search results for: distribution pattern

Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

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Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events

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Authors: Soban Najam, S. M. Jahanzeb, Ahmed Sohail, Faraz Idris Khan

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With the recent increase in reliance on Gas as the primary source of energy across the world, there has been a lot of research conducted on gas distribution networks. As the complexity and size of these networks grow, so does the leakage of gas in the distribution network. One of the most crucial factors in the production and distribution of gas is UFG or Unaccounted for Gas. The presence of UFG signifies that there is a difference between the amount of gas distributed, and the amount of gas billed. Our approach is to use information that we acquire from several specified points in the network. This information will be used to calculate the loss occurring in the network using the developed algorithm. The Algorithm can also identify the leakages at any point of the pipeline so we can easily detect faults and rectify them within minimal time, minimal efforts and minimal resources.

Keywords: FLA, fault location analysis, GDN, gas distribution network, GIS, geographic information system, NMS, network Management system, OMS, outage management system, SSGC, Sui Southern gas company, UFG, unaccounted for gas

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Authors: Al Omari Mohammed Ahmed

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This paper focuses on Maximum Likelihood Estimator with Covariate. Covariates are incorporated into the Weibull model. Under this regression model with regards to maximum likelihood estimator, the parameters of the covariate, shape parameter, survival function and hazard rate of the Weibull regression distribution with right censored data are estimated. The mean square error (MSE) and absolute bias are used to compare the performance of Weibull regression distribution. For the simulation comparison, the study used various sample sizes and several specific values of the Weibull shape parameter.

Keywords: weibull regression distribution, maximum likelihood estimator, survival function, hazard rate, right censoring

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Authors: Marwa H. Salah

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Modern consumption culture represents a widespread phenomenon that affects young people, as it affects all age groups in both urban and rural societies. It has been helped by globalization, specifically cultural globalization, also internal and external migration, and the immense development in information technology as well, these factors have led to the appearance of the conspicuous consumption pattern among young people. This research firstly interested in identifying the nature of this pattern of consumption among young people in the countryside, which represents a society with a special nature, was characterized by the pattern of traditional consumption. Secondly to find out whether the rural character has an impact on the conspicuous consumption of youth. Finally to identify the reasons for the rural youth's tendency to such type of consumption and if it contributes in satisfying certain social needs. The research used the anthropological method. Observation and open-ended interviews were used as tools to collect data and an interview guide was applied on a selective youth sample (40:20 male and 20 female) aged between 17to 34 in an Egyptian village located in Dakahlia governorate. The research showed that rural youth has impacted with the modern consumption culture and not isolated from it despite the lack of financial abilities. The conspicuous consumption is a dominant pattern of consumption among the Egyptian rural youth and it has been practicing by rural youth regardless of their educational & financial levels. Also, the wish to show the social and economic status, bragging and show off is the main reason for the rural youth to adopt the conspicuous consumption, moreover to face the inferior view from their counterparts’ urban youth.

Keywords: consumption culture, youth, conspicuous consumption, rural society

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Authors: Rong-Tsorng Wang

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In this paper, we derive a pricing formula for catastrophe equity put options (or CatEPut) with non-homogeneous loss and approximated compound distributions. We assume that the loss claims arrival process is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) representing the clustering occurrences of loss claims, the size of loss claims is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, and the accumulated loss distribution forms a compound distribution and is approximated by a heavy-tailed distribution. A numerical example is given to calibrate parameters, and we discuss how the value of CatEPut is affected by the changes of parameters in the pricing model we provided.

Keywords: catastrophe equity put options, compound distributions, nonhomogeneous Poisson process, pricing model

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Authors: A. Assif

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This paper presents the modeling of a prototype distribution static compensator (D-STATCOM) for voltage sag and swell mitigation in an unbalanced distribution system. Here the concept that an inverter can be used as generalized impedance converter to realize either inductive or capacitive reactance has been used to mitigate power quality issues of distribution networks. The D-STATCOM is here supposed to replace the widely used StaticVar Compensator (SVC). The scheme is based on the Voltage Source Converter (VSC) principle. In this model PWM based control scheme has been implemented to control the electronic valves of VSC. Phase shift control Algorithm method is used for converter control. The D-STATCOM injects a current into the system to mitigate the voltage sags. In this paper the modeling of D¬STATCOM has been designed using MATLAB SIMULINIC. Accordingly, simulations are first carried out to illustrate the use of D-STATCOM in mitigating voltage sag in a distribution system. Simulation results prove that the D-STATCOM is capable of mitigating voltage sag as well as improving power quality of a system.

Keywords: D-STATCOM, voltage sag, voltage source converter (VSC), phase shift control

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Authors: Oleg A. Romanovskii, Vladimir D. Burlakov, Sergey I. Dolgii, Olga V. Kharchenko, Alexey A. Nevzorov, Alexey V. Nevzorov

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The paper presents the results of DIAL measurements of the vertical ozone distribution. The ozone lidar operate as part of the measurement complex at Siberian Lidar Station (SLS) of V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS, Tomsk (56.5ºN; 85.0ºE) and designed for study of the vertical ozone distribution in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere. Most suitable wavelengths for measurements of ozone profiles are selected. We present an algorithm for retrieval of vertical distribution of ozone with temperature and aerosol correction during DIAL lidar sounding of the atmosphere. The temperature correction of ozone absorption coefficients is introduced in the software to reduce the retrieval errors. Results of lidar measurement at wavelengths of 299 and 341 nm agree with model estimates, which point to acceptable accuracy of ozone sounding in the 6–18 km altitude range.

Keywords: lidar, ozone distribution, atmosphere, DIAL

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: crack size, fatigue crack propagation, magnesium alloys, probability distribution, specimen thickness

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Authors: Sanchari Mukhopadhyay

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Today, almost the entire realm of human activities are becoming increasingly dependent on the power of information, where through ICTs it is now possible to cater distances and avail various services at a few clicks. In principle, ICTs are thus expected to blur location-specific differences and affiliations of development and bring in an inclusive society at the wake of globalization. However, eventually researchers and policy analysts realized that ICTs are also generating inequality in spite of the hope for an integrated world and widespread social well-being. Regarding this unevenness, location plays a major role as often ICT development is seen to be concentrated into pockets, leaving behind large tracks as underprivileged. Thus, understanding the spatial pattern of ICT development and distribution is significant in relation to exploring the extent to which ICTs are fulfilling the promises or reassuring the existing divisions. In addition, it is also profoundly crucial to investigate how regions are connecting and competing both locally and globally. The focus of the research paper is to evaluate the spatial structure of ICT led development in India. Thereby, it attempts to understand the state level (four selected states) pattern of ICT penetration, the pattern of diffusion across districts with respect to large urban centres and the rural-urban disparity of technology adoption. It also tries to assess the changes in access dynamisms of ICTs as one move away from a large metropolitan city towards the periphery. In brief, the analysis investigates into the tendency towards the uneven growth of development through the identification of the core areas of ICT advancement within the country and its diffusion from the core to the periphery. In order to assess the level of ICT development and rural-urban disparity across the districts of selected states, two indices named ICT Development Index and Rural-Urban Digital Divide Index have been constructed. The study mostly encompasses the latest Census (2011) of the country and TRAI (Telecom Regulatory Authority of India) in some cases.

Keywords: ICT development, diffusion, core-periphery, digital divide

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Authors: Vish Putcha, Chandrasekhar Putcha, Siva Hari

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In the current digital era of free trading and pandemic-driven remote work culture, markets worldwide gained momentum for retail investors to trade from anywhere easily. The number of retail traders rose to 24% of the market from 15% at the pre-pandemic level. Most of them are young retail traders with high-risk tolerance compared to the previous generation of retail traders. This trend boosted the growth of subscription-based market predictors and market data vendors. Young traders are betting on these predictors, assuming one of them is correct. However, 90% of retail traders are on the losing end. This paper presents multiple indicators and attempts to derive behavioral patterns from the underlying stocks. The two major indicators that traders and investors follow are technical and fundamental. The famous investor, Warren Buffett, adheres to the “Value Investing” method that is based on a stock’s fundamental Analysis. In this paper, we present multiple indicators from various methods to understand the behavior patterns of stocks. For this research, we picked five stocks with a market capitalization of more than $200M, listed on the exchange for more than 20 years, and from different industry sectors. To study the behavioral pattern over time for these five stocks, a total of 8 indicators are chosen from fundamental, technical, and financial indicators, such as Price to Earning (P/E), Price to Book Value (P/B), Debt to Equity (D/E), Beta, Volatility, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages and Dividend yields, followed by detailed mathematical Analysis. This is an interdisciplinary paper between various disciplines of Engineering, Accounting, and Finance. The research takes a new approach to identify clear indicators affecting stocks. Statistical Analysis of the data will be performed in terms of the probabilistic distribution, then follow and then determine the probability of the stock price going over a specific target value. The Chi-square test will be used to determine the validity of the assumed distribution. Preliminary results indicate that this approach is working well. When the complete results are presented in the final paper, they will be beneficial to the community.

Keywords: stock pattern, stock market analysis, stock predictions, trading, investing, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, quantitative trading, financial analysis, behavioral analysis

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Authors: Bouchemha Amel, Chachoui Takieddine, H. Maalem

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Automatic detection of targets in a modern communication system RADAR is based primarily on the concept of adaptive CFAR detector. To have an effective detection, we must minimize the influence of disturbances due to the clutter. The detection algorithm adapts the CFAR detection threshold which is proportional to the average power of the clutter, maintaining a constant probability of false alarm. In this article, we analyze the performance of two variants of adaptive algorithms CA-CFAR and OS-CFAR and we compare the thresholds of these detectors in the marine environment (no-Gaussian) with a Weibull distribution.

Keywords: CFAR, threshold, clutter, distribution, Weibull, detection

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Authors: A. R. Momeninezhad

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Erosion of Slurry Pumps in Related Industries, is one of the major costs in their production process. Many factories in extractive industries try to find ways to diminish this cost. In this paper, we consider the flow pattern modifications by geometric variations made of numerical simulation of flow inside pump casing, which is one of the most important parts analyzed for erosion. The mentioned pump is a cyclone centrifugal slurry pump, which is operating in Sarcheshmeh Copper Industries in Kerman-Iran, named and tagged as HM600 cyclone pump. Simulation shows many improvements in local wear information and situations for better and more qualified design of casing shape and impeller position, before and after geometric corrections. By theory of liquid-solid two-phase flow, the local wear defeats are analyzed and omitted.

Keywords: flow pattern, slurry pump, simulation, wear

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Authors: Kuni Vergauwen, Ivan P. J. Huijnen, Astrid Depuydt, Jasmine Van Regenmortel, Mira Meeus

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A lower activity level and imbalanced activity pattern are frequently observed in persons with chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) / myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME) due to debilitating fatigue and post-exertional malaise (PEM). Identification of measurement instruments to evaluate the activity level and pattern is therefore important. The objective is to identify measurement instruments suited to evaluate the activity level and/or pattern in patients with CFS/ME and review their psychometric properties. A systematic literature search was performed in the electronic databases PubMed and Web of Science until 12 October 2016. Articles including relevant measurement instruments were identified and included for further analysis. The psychometric properties of relevant measurement instruments were extracted from the included articles and rated based on the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) checklist. The review was performed and reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. A total of 49 articles and 15 unique measurement instruments were found, but only three instruments were evaluated in patients with CFS/ME: the Chronic Fatigue Syndrome-Activity Questionnaire (CFS-AQ), Activity Pattern Interview (API) and International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (IPAQ-SF), three self-report instruments measuring the physical activity level. The IPAQ-SF, CFS-AQ and API are all equally capable of evaluating the physical activity level, but none of the three measurement instruments are optimal to use. No studies about the psychometric properties of activity monitors in patients with CFS/ME were found, although they are often used as the gold standard to measure the physical activity pattern. More research is needed to evaluate the psychometric properties of existing instruments, including the use of activity monitors.

Keywords: chronic fatigue syndrome, data collection, physical activity, psychometrics

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Authors: Majid Zargar, Frank Bullen, Ron Ayers

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One of the important factors in the design of asphalt concrete mixes is the accurate measurement of air voids and their variable distribution. Both can have significant impact on long and short term fatigue and creep behaviour under traffic. While some simple methods exist for overall evaluation of air voids, measuring air void distribution in asphalt concrete is very complex, involving expensive techniques such as X-ray methodologies. The research reported in the paper investigated the use of non-destructive ultrasonic techniques as an alternative to estimate the amount of air voids and their distribution within asphalt samples. Seventy-four Standard AC–14 asphalt samples made with three types of bitumen; Multigrade, PMB and C320 were analysed using ultrasonic techniques. The results have illustrated that ultrasonic testing has the potential of being a rapid, accurate and cost-effective method of estimating air void distribution in asphalt.

Keywords: asphalt concrete, air voids, ultrasonic, mechanical behaviour

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Authors: Neda Nabid

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Friction-based supplemental devices have been extensively used for seismic protection and strengthening of structures, however, the conventional use of these dampers may not necessarily lead to an efficient structural performance. Conventionally designed friction dampers follow a uniform height-wise distribution pattern of slip load values for more practical simplicity. This can lead to localizing structural damage in certain story levels, while the other stories accommodate a negligible amount of relative displacement demand. A practical performance-based optimization methodology is developed to tackle with structural damage localization of RC frame buildings with friction energy dissipation devices under severe earthquakes. The proposed methodology is based on the concept of uniform damage distribution theory. According to this theory, the slip load values of the friction dampers redistribute and shift from stories with lower relative displacement demand to the stories with higher inter-story drifts to narrow down the discrepancy between the structural damage levels in different stories. In this study, the efficacy of the proposed design methodology is evaluated through the seismic performance of five different low to high-rise RC frames equipped with friction wall dampers under six real spectrum-compatible design earthquakes. The results indicate that compared to the conventional design, using the suggested methodology to design friction wall systems can lead to, by average, up to 40% reduction of maximum inter-story drift; and incredibly more uniform height-wise distribution of relative displacement demands under the design earthquakes.

Keywords: friction damper, nonlinear dynamic analysis, RC structures, seismic performance, structural damage

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Authors: Yahya A. Sadiq, Grace F. Balogun, Olufemi J. Anjorin

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This study analyzed the spatial distribution of socio-economic factors in Kogi state with a view to examining its implications on the development of the state. Consequently, questionnaires were administered on both the selected individual respondents (784) in the state and on the administrative offices (local council offices, 21) to solicit relevant information on the spatial distribution of socio-economic factors in their areas. The collected data were tabulated and analyzed using percentages. The study revealed commerce/trade, education, and health care, etc. as the major socio-economic factors in the state but with marked variation/imbalance in their spatial distribution across the study area. The rural-based local government areas have far less of such important facilities. Conclusively, it was recommended that there is need for socio-economic transformation of living conditions of people in the study area especially by positively redistributing local political power and the resources that are abound in the state will be felt by everybody including the commoners.

Keywords: development, local government areas (LGAs), spatial distribution, socio-economic factors

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Authors: Seda Yavuz, Anıl Çelebi, Aysun Taşyapı Çelebi, Oğuzhan Urhan

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Nowadays, demand for using real-time video transmission capable devices is ever-increasing. So, high resolution videos have made efficient video compression techniques an essential component for capturing and transmitting video data. Motion estimation has a critical role in encoding raw video. Hence, various motion estimation methods are introduced to efficiently compress the video. Low bit‑depth representation based motion estimation methods facilitate computation of matching criteria and thus, provide small hardware footprint. In this paper, a hardware implementation of a two-bit transformation based low-complexity motion estimation method using local binary pattern approach is proposed. Image frames are represented in two-bit depth instead of full-depth by making use of the local binary pattern as a binarization approach and the binarization part of the hardware architecture is explained in detail. Experimental results demonstrate the difference between the proposed hardware architecture and the architectures of well-known low-complexity motion estimation methods in terms of important aspects such as resource utilization, energy and power consumption.

Keywords: binarization, hardware architecture, local binary pattern, motion estimation, two-bit transform

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Authors: ShuHui Yang, ChingChing Lu

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Measuring event-related potentials (ERPs) has been fundamental to our understanding of how people process language. One specific ERP component, a P600, has been hypothesized to be associated with syntactic reanalysis processes. We, however, propose that the P600 is not restricted to reanalysis processes, but is the index of the structural pattern processing. To investigate the structural pattern processing, we utilized the effects of stimulus degradation in structural priming. To put it another way, there was no P600 effect if the structure of the prime was the same with the structure of the target. Otherwise, there would be a P600 effect if the structure were different between the prime and the target. In the experiment, twenty-two participants were presented with four sentences of Tang poetry. All of the first two sentences, being prime, were conducted with SVO+VP. The last two sentences, being the target, were divided into three types. Type one of the targets was SVO+VP. Type two of the targets was SVO+VPVP. Type three of the targets was VP+VP. The result showed that both of the targets, SVO+VPVP and VP+VP, elicited positive-going brainwave, a P600 effect, at 600~900ms time window. Furthermore, the P600 component was lager for the target’ VP+VP’ than the target’ SVO+VPVP’. That meant the more dissimilar the structure was, the lager the P600 effect we got. These results indicate that P600 was the index of the structure processing, and it would affect the P600 effect intensity with the degrees of structural heterogeneity.

Keywords: ERPs, P600, structural pattern, structural priming, Tang poetry

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Authors: Annalakshmi G., Sakthivel Murugan S.

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This paper presents a local directional encoded derivative binary pattern (LDEDBP) feature extraction method that can be applied for the classification of submarine coral reef images. The classification of coral reef images using texture features is difficult due to the dissimilarities in class samples. In coral reef image classification, texture features are extracted using the proposed method called local directional encoded derivative binary pattern (LDEDBP). The proposed approach extracts the complete structural arrangement of the local region using local binary batten (LBP) and also extracts the edge information using local directional pattern (LDP) from the edge response available in a particular region, thereby achieving extra discriminative feature value. Typically the LDP extracts the edge details in all eight directions. The process of integrating edge responses along with the local binary pattern achieves a more robust texture descriptor than the other descriptors used in texture feature extraction methods. Finally, the proposed technique is applied to an extreme learning machine (ELM) method with a meta-heuristic algorithm known as weighted distance grey wolf optimizer (GWO) to optimize the input weight and biases of single-hidden-layer feed-forward neural networks (SLFN). In the empirical results, ELM-WDGWO demonstrated their better performance in terms of accuracy on all coral datasets, namely RSMAS, EILAT, EILAT2, and MLC, compared with other state-of-the-art algorithms. The proposed method achieves the highest overall classification accuracy of 94% compared to the other state of art methods.

Keywords: feature extraction, local directional pattern, ELM classifier, GWO optimization

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Authors: Benjamin Anderson-Sackaney, Amr Abdel-Dayem

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This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent source camera identification (SCI) systems. Then, the performance of various sensor pattern noise (SPN) estimators was experimentally assessed, under common photo response non-uniformity (PRNU) frameworks. The experiments used 1350 natural and 900 flat-field images, captured by 18 individual cameras. 12 different experiments, grouped into three sets, were conducted. The results were analyzed using the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. The experimental results demonstrated that combining the basic SPN estimator with a wavelet-based filtering scheme provides promising results. However, the phase SPN estimator fits better with both patch-based (BM3D) and anisotropic diffusion (AD) filtering schemes.

Keywords: sensor pattern noise, source camera identification, photo response non-uniformity, anisotropic diffusion, peak to correlation energy ratio

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Authors: Mostafa Mohammadpour, Christoph Kapeller, Christy Li, Josef Scharinger, Christoph Guger

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Interictal spikes provide valuable information on electrocorticography (ECoG), which aids in surgical planning for patients who suffer from refractory epilepsy. However, the shape and temporal dynamics of these spikes remain unclear. The purpose of this work was to analyze the shape of interictal spikes and measure their distance to the seizure onset zone (SOZ) to use in epilepsy surgery. Thirteen patients' data from the iEEG portal were retrospectively studied. For analysis, half an hour of ECoG data was used from each patient, with the data being truncated before the onset of a seizure. Spikes were first detected and grouped in a sequence, then clustered into interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) and non-IED groups using two-step clustering. The distance of the spikes from IED and non-IED groups to SOZ was quantified and compared using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Spikes in the IED group tended to be in SOZ or close to it, while spikes in the non-IED group were in distance of SOZ or non-SOZ area. At the group level, the distribution for sharp wave, positive baseline shift, slow wave, and slow wave to sharp wave ratio was significantly different for IED and non-IED groups. The distance of the IED cluster was 10.00mm and significantly closer to the SOZ than the 17.65mm for non-IEDs. These findings provide insights into the shape and spatiotemporal dynamics of spikes that could influence the network mechanisms underlying refractory epilepsy.

Keywords: spike propagation, spike pattern, clustering, SOZ

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Authors: Solomon Weldegebriel Gebrelibanos

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Water is one of the most important substances in human life that can give a human liberality with its cost and availability. Water comes from rainfall and runoff and reaches the ground as runoff that is stored in a river, ponds, and big water bodies, including sea and ocean and the remaining water portion is infiltrated into the ground to store in the aquifer. Water can serve human beings in various ways, including irrigation, water supply, hydropower and soon. Water supply is the main pillar of the water service to the human being. Water supply distribution in Addis Ababa arises from Legedadi, Akakai, and Gefersa. The objective of the study is to measure the performance of the water supply distribution in Addis Ababa city. The water supply distribution model is developed by computer-aided design software. The model can analyze the operational change, loss of water, and performance of the network. The two design criteria that have been employed to analyze the network system are velocity and pressure. The result shows that the customers are using the water at high pressure with low demand. The water distribution system is older than the expected service life with more leakage. Hence the study recommended that fixing Pressure valves and new distribution facilities can resolve the performance of the water supply system

Keywords: distribution, model, pressure, velocity

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Authors: M. Qamarul Islam, Ergun Dogan, Mehmet Yazici

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There is a growing body of evidence that non-normal data is more prevalent in nature than the normal one. Examples can be quoted from, but not restricted to, the areas of Economics, Finance and Actuarial Science. The non-normality considered here is expressed in terms of fat-tailedness and asymmetry of the relevant distribution. In this study a skew t distribution that can be used to model a data that exhibit inherent non-normal behavior is considered. This distribution has tails fatter than a normal distribution and it also exhibits skewness. Although maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by solving iteratively the likelihood equations that are non-linear in form, this can be problematic in terms of convergence and in many other respects as well. Therefore, it is preferred to use the method of modified maximum likelihood in which the likelihood estimates are derived by expressing the intractable non-linear likelihood equations in terms of standardized ordered variates and replacing the intractable terms by their linear approximations obtained from the first two terms of a Taylor series expansion about the quantiles of the distribution. These estimates, called modified maximum likelihood estimates, are obtained in closed form. Hence, they are easy to compute and to manipulate analytically. In fact the modified maximum likelihood estimates are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimates, asymptotically. Even in small samples the modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be approximately the same as maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained iteratively. It is shown in this study that the modified maximum likelihood estimates are not only unbiased but substantially more efficient than the commonly used moment estimates or the least square estimates that are known to be biased and inefficient in such cases. Furthermore, in conventional regression analysis, it is assumed that the error terms are distributed normally and, hence, the well-known least square method is considered to be a suitable and preferred method for making the relevant statistical inferences. However, a number of empirical researches have shown that non-normal errors are more prevalent. Even transforming and/or filtering techniques may not produce normally distributed residuals. Here, a study is done for multiple linear regression models with random error having non-normal pattern. Through an extensive simulation it is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimates of regression parameters are plausibly robust to the distributional assumptions and to various data anomalies as compared to the widely used least square estimates. Relevant tests of hypothesis are developed and are explored for desirable properties in terms of their size and power. The tests based upon modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be substantially more powerful than the tests based upon least square estimates. Several examples are provided from the areas of Economics and Finance where such distributions are interpretable in terms of efficient market hypothesis with respect to asset pricing, portfolio selection, risk measurement and capital allocation, etc.

Keywords: least square estimates, linear regression, maximum likelihood estimates, modified maximum likelihood method, non-normality, robustness

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

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Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

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Authors: Han Joo Choe, Soon-Ho Kwon, Jung-Joong Lee

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Tin particles of various size and distribution were self-assembled by plasma treating tin film deposited on silicon oxide substrates. Plasma treatment was conducted using an inductively coupled plasma (ICP) source. A range of ICP power and topographic templated substrates were evaluated to observe changes in particle size and particle distribution. Scanning electron microscopy images of the particles were analyzed using computer software. The evolution of tin film dewetting into particles initiated from the hole nucleation in grain boundaries. Increasing ICP power during plasma treatment produced larger number of particles per area and smaller particle size and particle-size distribution. Topographic templates were also effective in positioning and controlling the size of the particles. By combining the effects of ICP power and topographic templates, particles of similar size and well-ordered distribution were obtained.

Keywords: dewetting, particles, plasma, tin

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Authors: E. Keramaris

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In this study, laboratory experiments in open channel flows over a sand bed were conducted. A porous bed (sand bed) with porosity of ε=0.70 and porous thickness of s΄=3 cm was tested. Vertical distributions of velocity were evaluated by using a two-dimensional (2D) Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). Velocity profiles are measured above the impermeable bed and above the sand bed for the same different total water heights (h= 6, 8, 10 and 12 cm) and for the same slope S=1.5. Measurements of mean velocity indicate the effects of the bed material used (sand bed) on the flow characteristics (Velocity distribution and Reynolds number) in comparison with those above the impermeable bed.

Keywords: particle image velocimetry, sand bed, velocity distribution, Reynolds number

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Authors: Katyana A. Vert-Pre, James T. Thorson, Thomas Trancart, Eric Feunteun

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In marine ecosystems, spatial and temporal species structure is an important component of ecosystems’ response to anthropological and environmental factors. Although spatial distribution patterns and fish temporal series of abundance have been studied in the past, little research has been allocated to the joint dynamic spatio-temporal functional patterns in marine ecosystems and their use in multispecies management and conservation. Each species represents a function to the ecosystem, and the distribution of these species might not be random. A heterogeneous functional distribution will lead to a more resilient ecosystem to external factors. Applying a Vector-Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal (VAST) model for count data, we estimate the spatio-temporal distribution, shift in time, and abundance of 140 species of the Eastern English Chanel, Bay of Biscay and Mediterranean Sea. From the model outputs, we determined spatio-temporal clusters, calculating p-values for hierarchical clustering via multiscale bootstrap resampling. Then, we designed a functional map given the defined cluster. We found that the species distribution within the ecosystem was not random. Indeed, species evolved in space and time in clusters. Moreover, these clusters remained similar over time deriving from the fact that species of a same cluster often shifted in sync, keeping the overall structure of the ecosystem similar overtime. Knowing the co-existing species within these clusters could help with predicting data-poor species distribution and abundance. Further analysis is being performed to assess the ecological functions represented in each cluster.

Keywords: cluster distribution shift, European marine ecosystems, functional distribution, spatio-temporal model

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Tingke Wu, Man Yuan

Abstract:

“National Territorial Planning (2016-2030)” was issued by the State Council of China in 2017. As an important initiative of putting it into effect, territorial planning at provincial level makes overall arrangement of territorial development, resources and environment protection, comprehensive renovation and security system construction. Hubei province, as the pivot of the “Rise of Central China” national strategy, is now confronted with great opportunities and challenges in territorial development, protection, and renovation. Territorial spatial pattern experiences long time evolution, influenced by multiple internal and external driving forces. It is not clear what are the main causes of its formation and what are effective ways of optimizing it. By analyzing land use data in 2016, this paper reveals present status of territory in Hubei. Combined with economic and social data and construction information, driving forces of territorial spatial pattern are then analyzed. Research demonstrates that the three types of territorial space aggregate distinctively. The four aspects of driving forces include natural background which sets the stage for main functions, population and economic factors which generate agglomeration effect, transportation infrastructure construction which leads to axial expansion and significant provincial strategies which encourage the established path. On this basis, targeted strategies for optimizing territory spatial pattern are then put forward. Hierarchical protection pattern should be established based on development intensity control as respect for nature. By optimizing the layout of population and industry and improving the transportation network, polycentric network-based development pattern could be established. These findings provide basis for Hubei Territorial Planning, and reference for future territorial planning in other provinces.

Keywords: driving forces, Hubei, optimizing strategies, spatial pattern, territory

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Hamid Ahmadi, Amirreza Ghaffari

Abstract:

Fatigue life of tubular joints in offshore structures is not only dependent on the value of hot-spot stress, but is also significantly influenced by the through-the-thickness stress distribution characterized by the degree of bending (DoB). The DoB exhibits considerable scatter calling for greater emphasis in accurate determination of its governing probability distribution which is a key input for the fatigue reliability analysis of a tubular joint. Although the tubular X-joints are commonly found in offshore jacket structures, as far as the authors are aware, no comprehensive research has been carried out on the probability distribution of the DoB in tubular X-joints. What has been used so far as the probability distribution of the DoB in reliability analyses is mainly based on assumptions and limited observations, especially in terms of distribution parameters. In the present paper, results of parametric equations available for the calculation of the DoB have been used to develop probability distribution models for the DoB in the chord member of tubular X-joints subjected to four types of bending loads. Based on a parametric study, a set of samples was prepared and density histograms were generated for these samples using Freedman-Diaconis method. Twelve different probability density functions (PDFs) were fitted to these histograms. The maximum likelihood method was utilized to determine the parameters of fitted distributions. In each case, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit. Finally, after substituting the values of estimated parameters for each distribution, a set of fully defined PDFs have been proposed for the DoB in tubular X-joints subjected to bending loads.

Keywords: tubular X-joint, degree of bending (DoB), probability density function (PDF), Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test

Procedia PDF Downloads 696

Authors: Sandeep, A. Joshi, Kamal, Piu Dhibar, Parveen Kumar

Abstract:

In the present work strong ground motion has been simulated using a modified semi-empirical technique (MSET), with frequency dependent radiation pattern model. Joshi et al. (2014) have modified the semi-empirical technique to incorporate the modeling of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs). A frequency dependent radiation pattern model is applied to simulate high frequency ground motion more precisely. Identified SMGAs (Kurahashi and Irikura 2012) of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) were modeled using this modified technique. Records are simulated for both frequency dependent and constant radiation pattern function. Simulated records for both cases are compared with observed records in terms of peak ground acceleration and pseudo acceleration response spectra at different stations. Comparison of simulated and observed records in terms of root mean square error suggests that the method is capable of simulating record which matches in a wide frequency range for this earthquake and bears realistic appearance in terms of shape and strong motion parameters. The results confirm the efficacy and suitability of rupture model defined by five SMGAs for the developed modified technique.

Keywords: strong ground motion, semi-empirical, strong motion generation area, frequency dependent radiation pattern, 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 505