Search results for: demand modeling

Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

Abstract:

One conundrum that macroeconomic theory faces is to explain how an economy can revive from depression, in which the aggregate demand has fallen substantially below its productive capacity. This paper examines an autonomous stabilizing mechanism using an agent-based Wicksell-Keynes macroeconomic model. This paper focuses on the effects of the number of firms and the length of the gestation period for investment that are often assumed to be one in a mainstream macroeconomic model. The simulations found the virtual economy was highly unstable, or more precisely, collapsing when these parameters are fixed at one. This finding may even suggest us to question the legitimacy of these common assumptions. A perpetual decline in capital stock will eventually encourage investment if the capital stock is short-lived because an inactive investment will result in insufficient productive capacity. However, for an economy characterized by a roundabout production method, a gradual decline in productive capacity may not be able to fall below the aggregate demand that is also shrinking. Naturally, one would then ask if our economy cannot rely on an external stimulus such as population growth and technological progress to revive investment, what factors would provide such a buoyancy for stimulating investments? The current paper attempts to answer this question by employing the artificial macroeconomic model mentioned above. The baseline model has the following three features: (1) the multi-period gestation for investment, (2) a large number of heterogeneous firms, (3) demand-constrained firms. The instability is a consequence of the following dynamic interactions. (a) A multiple-period gestation period means that once a firm starts a new investment, it continues to invest over some subsequent periods. During these gestation periods, the excess demand created by the investing firm will spill over to ignite new investment of other firms that are supplying investment goods: the presence of multi-period gestation for investment provides a field for investment interactions. Conversely, the excess demand for investment goods tends to fade away before it develops into a full-fledged boom if the gestation period of investment is short. (b) A strong demand in the goods market tends to raise the price level, thereby lowering real wages. This reduction of real wages creates two opposing effects on the aggregate demand through the following two channels: (1) a reduction in the real labor income, and (2) an increase in the labor demand due to the principle of equality between the marginal labor productivity and real wage (referred as the Walrasian labor demand). If there is only a single firm, a lower real wage will increase its Walrasian labor demand, thereby an actual labor demand tends to be determined by the derived labor demand. Thus, the second positive effect would not work effectively. In contrast, for an economy with a large number of firms, Walrasian firms will increase employment. This interaction among heterogeneous firms is a key for stability. A single firm cannot expect the benefit of such an increased aggregate demand from other firms.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, demand constraint, gestation period, representative agent model, stability

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Authors: Mahdi Akhbardeh

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Synchronization of neuronal firing is a hallmark of several neurological diseases. Recently, stimulation techniques have been developed which make it possible to desynchronize oscillatory neuronal activity in a mild and effective way, without suppressing the neurons' firing. As yet, these techniques are being used to establish demand-controlled deep brain stimulation (DBS) techniques for the therapy of movement disorders like severe Parkinson's disease or essential tremor. We here present a first conceptualization suggesting that the nucleus accumbens is a promising target for the standard, that is, permanent high-frequency, DBS in patients with severe and chronic obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). In addition, we explain how demand-controlled DBS techniques may be applied to the therapy of OCD in those cases that are refractory to behavioral therapies and pharmacological treatment.

Keywords: stereotactic neurosurgery, deep brain stimulation, obsessive-compulsive disorder, phase resetting

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Authors: Chenhong Peng

Abstract:

Beijing, the capital city of China, is running out of water. The water resource per capita in Beijing is only 106 cubic meter, accounts for 5% of the country’s average level and less than 2% of the world average level. The tension between water supply and demand is extremely serious. For one hand, the surface and ground water have been over-exploited during the last decades; for the other hand, water demand keep increasing as the result of population and economic growth. There is a massive gap between water supply and demand. This paper will focus on addressing the water shortage in Beijing city by increasing water use efficiency in domestic sector. First, we will emphasize on the changing structure of water supply and demand in Beijing under the economic development and restructure during the last decade. Second, by analyzing the water use efficiency in agriculture, industry and domestic sectors in Beijing, we identify that the key determinant for addressing the water crisis is to increase the water use efficiency in domestic sector. Third, this article will explore the two primary causes for the water use inefficiency in Beijing: The ineffective water pricing policy and the poor water education and communication policy. Finally, policy recommendation will offered to improve the water use efficiency in domestic sector by making and implementing an effective water pricing policy and people-engaged water education and communication policy.

Keywords: Beijing, water use efficiency, domestic sector, water pricing policy, water education policy

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Authors: Oumaima Lahmar

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This paper aims to define a structured topography for finance researchers seeking to navigate the body of knowledge in their extrapolation of finance phenomena. To make sense of the body of knowledge in finance, a probabilistic topic modeling approach is applied on 6000 abstracts of academic articles published in three top journals in finance between 1976 and 2020. This approach combines both machine learning techniques and natural language processing to statistically identify the conjunctions between research articles and their shared topics described each by relevant keywords. The topic modeling analysis reveals 35 coherent topics that can well depict finance literature and provide a comprehensive structure for the ongoing research themes. Comparing the extracted topics to the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification system, a significant similarity was highlighted between the characterizing keywords. On the other hand, we identify other topics that do not match the JEL classification despite being relevant in the finance literature.

Keywords: finance literature, textual analysis, topic modeling, perplexity

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Authors: Carla Maria Furuno Rimkus

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The technologies related to virtual reality and augmented reality in combination with mobile technologies, are being more consolidated and used each day. The increasing technological availability along with the decrease of their acquisition and maintenance costs, have favored the expansion of its use in the field of historic heritage. In this context it is focused, in this article, on the potential of mobile applications in the dissemination of the architectural heritage, using the technology of Augmented Reality. From this perspective approach, it is discussed about the process of producing an application for mobile devices on the Android platform, which combines the technologies of geometric modeling with augmented reality (AR) and access to interactive multimedia contents with cultural, social and historic information of the historic building that we take as the object of study: a block with a set of buildings built in the XVIII century, known as "Quarteirão dos Trapiches", which was modeled in 3D, coated with the original texture of its facades and displayed on AR. From this perspective approach, this paper discusses about methodological aspects of the development of this application regarding to the process and the project development tools, and presents our considerations on methodological aspects of developing an application for the Android system, focused on the dissemination of the architectural heritage, in order to encourage the tourist potential of the city in a sustainable way and to contribute to develop the digital documentation of the heritage of the city, meeting a demand of tourists visiting the city and the professionals who work in the preservation and restoration of it, consisting of architects, historians, archaeologists, museum specialists, among others.

Keywords: augmented reality, architectural heritage, geometric modeling, mobile applications

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Authors: Arnab Adhikari, Arnab Bisi

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Since the inception, the fashion apparel supply chain is facing the problem of high demand uncertainty. Often the demand volatility compels the corresponding supply chain member to incur substantial holding cost and opportunity cost in case of the overproduction and the underproduction scenario, respectively. It leads to an uncoordinated fashion apparel supply chain. There exist several scholarly works to achieve coordination in the fashion apparel supply chain by employing the different contracts such as the buyback contract, the revenue sharing contract, the option contract, and so on. Specially, the application of option contract in the apparel industry becomes prevalent with the changing global scenario. Exploration of existing literature related to the option contract reveals that most of the research works concentrate on the one direction demand adjustment i.e. either to match the demand upwards or downwards. Here, we present a holistic approach to coordinate a dyadic fashion apparel supply chain comprising one manufacturer and one retailer with the help of bidirectional option contract. We show a combination of wholesale price contract and bidirectional option contract can coordinate the under expanded supply chain. We also propose a framework that captures the variation of the apparel retailer’s order quantity and the apparel manufacturer’s production quantity with the changing exercise price for the different ranges of the option price. We analytically explore that corresponding cost parameters of the supply chain members along with the nature of demand distribution play an instrumental role in the coordination as well as the retailer’s ordering decision.

Keywords: fashion apparel supply chain, supply chain coordination, wholesale price contract, bidirectional option contract

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Authors: Selahattin Gultekin

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Today, in engineering departments, mathematics courses such as calculus, linear algebra and differential equations are generally taught by mathematicians. Therefore, during mathematicians’ classroom teaching there are few or no applications of the concepts to real world problems at all. Most of the times, students do not know whether the concepts or rules taught in these courses will be used extensively in their majors or not. This situation holds true of for all engineering and science disciplines. The general trend toward these mathematic courses is not good. The real-life application of mathematics will be appreciated by students when mathematical modeling of real-world problems are tackled. So, students do not like abstract mathematics, rather they prefer a solid application of the concepts to our daily life problems. The author highly recommends that mathematical modeling is to be taught starting in high schools all over the world In this paper, some mathematical concepts such as limit, derivative, integral, Taylor Series, differential equations and mean-value-theorem are chosen and their applications with graphical representations to real problems are emphasized.

Keywords: applied mathematics, engineering mathematics, mathematical concepts, mathematical modeling

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Authors: M. Bassoui, M. Ferfra, M. Chrayagne

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This paper presents a qualitative modeling for the nonlinear B-H curve of the saturable magnetic materials for a transformer with shunts used in the power supply for the magnetron. This power supply is composed of a single phase leakage flux transformer supplying a cell composed of a capacitor and a diode, which double the voltage and stabilize the current, and a single magnetron at the output of the cell. A procedure consisting of a fuzzy clustering method and a rule processing algorithm is then employed for processing the constructed fuzzy modeling rules to extract the qualitative properties of the curve.

Keywords: B(H) curve, fuzzy clustering, magnetron, power supply

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Authors: M. Kiran Reddy, K. Sreenivasa Rao

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The conventional Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based speech synthesis system (HTS) uses only a pulse excitation model, which significantly differs from natural excitation signal. Hence, buzziness can be perceived in the speech generated using HTS. This paper proposes an efficient excitation modeling method that can significantly reduce the buzziness, and improve the quality of HMM-based speech synthesis. The proposed approach models the pitch-synchronous residual frames extracted from the residual excitation signal. Each pitch synchronous residual frame is parameterized using 30 wavelet coefficients. These 30 wavelet coefficients are found to accurately capture the perceptually important information present in the residual waveform. In synthesis phase, the residual frames are reconstructed from the generated wavelet coefficients and are pitch-synchronously overlap-added to generate the excitation signal. The proposed excitation modeling method is integrated into HMM-based speech synthesis system. Evaluation results indicate that the speech synthesized by the proposed excitation model is significantly better than the speech generated using state-of-the-art excitation modeling methods.

Keywords: excitation modeling, hidden Markov models, pitch-synchronous frames, speech synthesis, wavelet coefficients

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Authors: Ahmed Elsayed Ahmed, Ashraf Hafez, A. N. Ouda, Hossam Eldin Hussein Ahmed, Hala Mohamed ABD-Elkader

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Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) are playing increasingly prominent roles in defense programs and defense strategies around the world. Technology advancements have enabled the development of it to do many excellent jobs as reconnaissance, surveillance, battle fighters, and communications relays. Simulating a small unmanned aerial vehicle (SUAV) dynamics and analyzing its behavior at the preflight stage is too important and more efficient. The first step in the UAV design is the mathematical modeling of the nonlinear equations of motion. In this paper, a survey with a standard method to obtain the full non-linear equations of motion is utilized,and then the linearization of the equations according to a steady state flight condition (trimming) is derived. This modeling technique is applied to an Ultrastick-25e fixed wing UAV to obtain the valued linear longitudinal and lateral models. At the end, the model is checked by matching between the behavior of the states of the non-linear UAV and the resulted linear model with doublet at the control surfaces.

Keywords: UAV, equations of motion, modeling, linearization

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Authors: Abimbola M. Enitan, J. Adeyemo

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Anaerobic modeling is a useful tool to describe and simulate the condition and behaviour of anaerobic treatment units for better effluent quality and biogas generation. The present investigation deals with the anaerobic treatment of brewery wastewater with varying organic loads. The chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total suspended solids (TSS) of the influent and effluent of the bioreactor were determined at various retention times to generate data for kinetic coefficients. The bio-kinetic coefficients in the modified Stover–Kincannon kinetic and methane generation models were determined to study the performance of anaerobic digestion process. At steady-state, the determination of the kinetic coefficient (K), the endogenous decay coefficient (Kd), the maximum growth rate of microorganisms (µmax), the growth yield coefficient (Y), ultimate methane yield (Bo), maximum utilization rate constant Umax and the saturation constant (KB) in the model were calculated to be 0.046 g/g COD, 0.083 (dˉ¹), 0.117 (d-¹), 0.357 g/g, 0.516 (L CH4/gCODadded), 18.51 (g/L/day) and 13.64 (g/L/day) respectively. The outcome of this study will help in simulation of anaerobic model to predict usable methane and good effluent quality during the treatment of industrial wastewater. Thus, this will protect the environment, conserve natural resources, saves time and reduce cost incur by the industries for the discharge of untreated or partially treated wastewater. It will also contribute to a sustainable long-term clean development mechanism for the optimization of the methane produced from anaerobic degradation of waste in a close system.

Keywords: brewery wastewater, methane generation model, environment, anaerobic modeling

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Authors: Hasan Al Dabbas

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In this paper, it is addressed that the mechanical machinery captures a major share of innovation in drilling and milling chucks technology. Users demand higher speeds in milling because they are cutting more aluminum and are relying on higher speeds to eliminate secondary finishing operations. To meet that demand, milling-machine builders have enhanced their machine’s rigidity. Moreover, faster cutting has caught up with boring mills. Cooling these machine’s internal components is a challenge at high speeds. Another trend predicted that it is more use of controlled axes to let the machines do many more operations on 5 sides without having to move or re-fix the work. Advances of technology in mechanical engineering have helped to make high-speed machining equipment. To accompany these changes in milling and drilling machines chucks, the demand of easiest software is increased. An open architecture controller is being sought that would allow flexibility and information exchange.

Keywords: drilling, milling, chucks, cutting edges, tools, machines

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Authors: Hamid Rostami, Ali Fallah Yeznabad, Mohammad H. Baziar

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The energy-based method for evaluating seismic soil liquefaction has two main sections. First is the demand energy, which is dissipated energy of earthquake at a site, and second is the capacity energy as a representation of soil resistance against liquefaction hazard. In this study, using a statistical analysis of recorded data by 14 down-hole array sites in California, an empirical equation was developed to estimate the demand energy at sites. Because determination of capacity energy at a site needs to calculate several site calibration factors, which are obtained by experimental tests, in this study the standard penetration test (SPT) N-value was assumed as an alternative to the capacity energy at a site. Based on this assumption, the empirical equation was employed to calculate the demand energy for 193 liquefied and no-liquefied sites and then these amounts were plotted versus the corresponding SPT numbers for all sites. Subsequently, a discrimination analysis was employed to determine the equations of several boundary curves for various liquefaction likelihoods. Finally, a comparison was made between the probabilistic model and the commonly used stress method. As a conclusion, the results clearly showed that energy-based method can be more reliable than conventional stress-based method in evaluation of liquefaction occurrence.

Keywords: energy demand, liquefaction, probabilistic analysis, SPT number

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Authors: Gionata Carmignani, Mario G. C. A. Cimino, Franco Failli

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Business Processes (BPs) are the key instrument to understand how companies operate at an organizational level, taking an as-is view of the workflow, and how to address their issues by identifying a to-be model. In last year’s, the BP Model and Notation (BPMN) has become a de-facto standard for modeling processes. However, this standard does not incorporate explicitly the Problem-Solving (PS) knowledge in the Process Modeling (PM) results. Thus, such knowledge cannot be shared or reused. To narrow this gap is today a challenging research area. In this paper we present a framework able to capture the PS knowledge and to improve a workflow. This framework extends the BPMN specification by incorporating new general-purpose elements. A pilot scenario is also presented and discussed.

Keywords: business process management, BPMN, problem solving, process mapping

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Authors: Gary Miller, Andriy Didenko, David Allison

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The boundary of a region in the plane shrinks according to its curvature. A simple algorithm based upon this motion by curvature performed by a spreadsheet simulates the evaporation/dissipation behavior of oil spill boundaries.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, oil, evaporation, dissipation, boundary

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Authors: Souhir Chelly, Chahida Harizi, Aicha Hechaichi, Sihem Aissaoui, Leila Ben Ayed, Maha Bergaoui, Mohamed Kouni Chahed

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Introduction: The International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC) is part of the morbidity classification system. It had 17 chapters, and each is coded by an alphanumeric code: the letter corresponds to the chapter, the number to a paragraph in the chapter. The objective of this study is to show the utility of this classification in the coding of the reasons for demand for care in Primary health care (PHC), its advantages and limits. Methods: This is a cross-sectional descriptive study conducted in 4 PHC in Ariana district. Data on the demand for care during 2 days in the same week were collected. The coding of the information was done according to the CISP. The data was entered and analyzed by the EPI Info 7 software. Results: A total of 523 demands for care were investigated. The patients who came for the consultation are predominantly female (62.72%). Most of the consultants are young with an average age of 35 ± 26 years. In the ICPC, there are 7 rubrics: 'infections' is the most common reason with 49.9%, 'other diagnoses' with 40.2%, 'symptoms and complaints' with 5.5%, 'trauma' with 2.1%, 'procedures' with 2.1% and 'neoplasm' with 0.3%. The main advantage of the ICPC is the fact of being a standardized tool. It is very suitable for classification of the reasons for demand for care in PHC according to their specificity, capacity to be used in a computerized medical file of the PHC. Its current limitations are related to the difficulty of classification of some reasons for demand for care. Conclusion: The ICPC has been developed to provide healthcare with a coding reference that takes into account their specificity. The CIM is in its 10th revision; it would gain from revision to revision to be more efficient to be generalized and used by the teams of PHC.

Keywords: international classification of primary care, medical file, primary health care, Tunisia

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Authors: Pierce Radecki, Pulkit Malik, Bharath Ramaswamy, Ben Shapiro

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The ability to effectively design and test magnetic nanoparticles for controlled movement has been an elusive goal in the design of these particles. Magnetic nanoparticles of various characteristics have been created for use towards therapeutic effects, however the challenge of designing for controlled movement remains unmet. A step towards design in this aspect is a first principles model that captures and predicts the behaviors of particles in a magnetic field. The model is governed by four forces acting on the particles, the magnetic gradient, the dipole-dipole forces, the steric forces, and the viscous drag force. The particles are multi-core or single core, and incorporate a preferred magnetization axis. Particles exhibit behaviors, such as chaining, in simulations that are similar to those witnessed through experimentation. Currently, experimental results are being compared to the modeling results for verification of the model, through the analysis of chaining behaviors. This modeling system will be used in designing magnetic nanoparticles for specific chaining and movement behaviors.

Keywords: controlled movement, modeling, magnetic nanoparticles, nanoparticle design

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Authors: Artem Sedov, Aigerim Uyzbayeva, Valeriya Tyo

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The presented article is showing results of dynamic modeling with Mathlab software of optimal automatic room climate control system for two experimental houses in Astana, one of which has circle plan and the other one has square plan. These results are showing that building geometry doesn't influence on climate system PID-controls configuring. This confirms theoretical implication that optimal automatic climate control system parameters configuring should depend on building's internal space volume, envelope heat transfer, number of people inside, supply ventilation air flow and outdoor temperature.

Keywords: climate control system, climate physics, dome-like building, mathematical modeling

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Authors: Rahil Saeedi

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The imbalance in truck parking supply and demand can create important safety issues for truck drivers and the public. Research has shown that breaks at specific intervals can increase drivers’ alertness by reducing the monotony of the task. However, if fatigued truck drivers are unable to find a safe parking spot for rest, they may continue to drive or choose to park at remote and insecure areas or undesignated locations. All of these situations pose serious safety and security risks to truck drivers and other roadway users. This study uses 5-year truck crash data in Ohio to develop and test a framework for identifying crashes that happen as a result of imbalances in truck parking supply and demand. The societal impacts of these crashes are then interpreted as monetary values, calculated using the costs associated with various crash severity levels.

Keywords: truck parking, road safety, crash data, geofencing, driver fatigue, undesignated parking

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Authors: Nassima Sotehi

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This article presents experimental and numerical results concerning the thermal properties of the porous materials used as heat insulator in the buildings sector. Initially, the thermal conductivity of three types of studied walls (classic concrete, concrete with cork aggregate and polystyrene concrete) was measured in experiments by the method of the boxes. Then a numerical modeling of the heat and mass transfers which occur within porous materials was applied to these walls. This work shows the influence of the presence of water in building materials on their thermophysical properties, as well as influence of the nature of materials and dosage of fibers introduced within these materials on the thermal and mass transfers.

Keywords: modeling, porous media, thermal materials, thermal properties

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Authors: N. Ibrahim-Rassoul, A. Kessi, E. K. Si-Ahmed, N. Djilali, J. Legrand

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The static and dynamic formation of liquid water bridges is analyzed using a combination of visualization experiments in a microchannel with a mathematical model. This paper presents experimental and theoretical findings of water plug/capillary bridge formation in a 250 μm squared microchannel. The approach combines mathematical and numerical modeling with experimental visualization and measurements. The generality of the model is also illustrated for flow conditions encountered in manipulation of polymeric materials and formation of liquid bridges between patterned surfaces. The predictions of the model agree favorably the observations as well as with the experimental recordings.

Keywords: green energy, mathematical modeling, fuel cell, water plug, gas diffusion layer, surface of revolution

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Authors: Benaliouche Hana, Abdessemed Djamal, Meniai Abdessalem, Lesage Geoffroy, Heran Marc

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This paper presents a dynamic mathematical model of activated sludge which is able to predict the formation and degradation kinetics of SMP (Soluble microbial products) in membrane bioreactor systems. The model is based on a calibrated version of ASM1 with the theory of production and degradation of SMP. The model was calibrated on the experimental data from MBR (Mathematical modeling Membrane bioreactor) pilot plant. Analytical expressions have been developed, describing the concentrations of the main state variables present in the sludge matrix, with the inclusion of only six additional linear differential equations. The objective is to present a new dynamic mathematical model of activated sludge capable of predicting the formation and degradation kinetics of SMP (UAP and BAP) from the submerged membrane bioreactor (BRMI), operating at low organic load (C / N = 3.5), for two sludge retention times (SRT) fixed at 40 days and 60 days, to study their impact on membrane fouling, The modeling study was carried out under the steady-state condition. Analytical expressions were then validated by comparing their results with those obtained by simulations using GPS-X-Hydromantis software. These equations made it possible, by means of modeling approaches (ASM1), to identify the operating and kinetic parameters and help to predict membrane fouling.

Keywords: Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1), mathematical modeling membrane bioreactor, soluble microbial products, UAP, BAP, Modeling SMP, MBR, heterotrophic biomass

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Authors: Emery A. Coppola Jr., Suna Cinar, Ferenc Szidarovszky

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Over-pumping of groundwater resources is a serious problem world-wide. In addition to depleting this valuable resource, hydraulically connected sensitive ecological resources like wetlands and surface water bodies are often impacted and even destroyed by over-pumping. Effectively managing groundwater in a way that satisfy human demand while preserving natural resources is a daunting challenge that will only worsen with growing human populations and climate change. As presented in this paper, a numerical flow model developed for a hypothetical but realistic groundwater/surface water system was combined with formal optimization. Response coefficients were used in an optimization management model to maximize groundwater pumping in a complex, multi-layered aquifer system while protecting against groundwater over-draft, streamflow depletion, and wetland impacts. Pumping optimization was performed for different constraint sets that reflect different resource protection preferences, yielding significantly different optimal pumping solutions. A sensitivity analysis on the optimal solutions was performed on select response coefficients to identify differences between wet and dry periods. Stochastic optimization was also performed, where uncertainty associated with changing irrigation demand due to changing weather conditions are accounted for. One of the strengths of this optimization approach is that it can efficiently and accurately identify superior management strategies that minimize risk and adverse environmental impacts associated with groundwater pumping under different hydrologic conditions.

Keywords: numerical groundwater flow modeling, water management optimization, groundwater overdraft, streamflow depletion

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Authors: Pınar Aydın, Şule Turhan

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Today, with the change of people's consumption habits, the importance of frozen fruit and vegetable sector has been increased. In Turkey, sector is based on export. It is growing very fast and external demand is constantly increasing. About 80% of frozen fruits and vegetables produced in Turkey are being exported. More than 90% of the exports go to European Union countries. About 49% of frozen fruits and vegetables in Turkey is being exported to Germany, England and France. In the sector which the abroad demand is continuously increasing, although it has been estimated that around 25% of the average annual growth rate, the domestic consumption is very low. Although the frozen food consumption per person in Turkey is about %2 of United States, the growing rate of the sector is higher than the United States and Europe. This situation reflects that it is such a sector that has a growing demand in both domestic and foreign markets.

Keywords: frozen food, fruit and vegetable sector, exports, Turkey

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Authors: Nesrine Bouzaher, Okba Necira

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The financial aspect of the Algerian economy is part of all sectors that have undergone great changes these two last decades; the goal is to enable economic mechanisms for real growth. Insurance is an indispensable tool for stabilizing these mechanisms. Therefore the national economy needs to develop the insurance market in order to support the investments, externally and internally; it turns out that reinsurance is one of the area which could prove their performance in several markets mainly emerging ones. The expansion of reinsurance in the domestic market is the preoccupation of this work, focusing on factors that could enhance the demand of reinsurance in the Algerian market. This work will be based on an analytical research of the economic contribution of the reinsurance and it’s collusion with insurance; market, then it will be necessary to provide an overview of the product in the national emerging market, finally we will try to investigate on the factors that could enhance the demand in the national reinsurance market so as to determine the potential of Algeria in this area.

Keywords: Algerian reinsurance data, demand trend of Algerian reinsurance, reinsurance, reinsurance market

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Authors: Mohammed Al-Shalabi, Alaa Obeidat

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In any food stores, some items will be expired or destroyed because the demand on these items is infrequent, so we need a system that can help the decision maker to make an offer on such items to improve the demand on the items by putting them with some other frequent item and decrease the price to avoid losses. The system generates hundreds or thousands of patterns (offers) for each low demand item, then it uses the association rules (support, confidence) to find the interesting patterns (the best offer to achieve the lowest losses). In this paper, we propose a data mining method for determining the best offer by merging the data mining techniques with the e-commerce strategy. The task is to build a model to predict the best offer. The goal is to maximize the profits of a store and avoid the loss of products. The idea in this paper is the using of the association rules in marketing with a combination with e-commerce.

Keywords: data mining, association rules, confidence, online stores

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Authors: Roham Rafiee, Hadi Hesamsadat

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In this study, a parametric finite element modeling is developed to analyze failure modes of FRP pipes subjected to internal pressure. First-ply failure pressure and functional failure pressure was determined by a progressive damage modeling and then it is validated using experimental observations. The influence of both winding angle and fiber volume fraction is studied on the functional failure of FRP pipes and it corresponding pressure. It is observed that despite the fact that increasing fiber volume fraction will enhance the mechanical properties, it will be resulted in lower values for functional failure pressure. This shortcoming can be compensated by modifying the winding angle in angle plies of pipe wall structure.

Keywords: composite pipe, functional failure, progressive modeling, winding angle

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Authors: Anupam Purwar

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In conventional consumer product industry, stockouts are taken care by carrying buffer stock to check underserving caused by changes in customer demand, incorrect forecast or variability in lead times. But, for food outlets, the alternate of carrying buffer stock is unviable because of indispensable need to serve freshly cooked meals. Besides, the food outlet being the sole provider has no incentives to reduce stockouts, as they have no fear of losing revenue, gross profit, customers and market share. Hence, innovative, easy to implement and practical ways of addressing the twin problem of long queues and poor customer experience needs to be investigated. Current work analyses the demand pattern of 11 different food items across a routine day. Based on this optimum resource allocation for all food items has been carried out by solving a linear programming problem with cost minimization as the objective. Concurrently, recommendations have been devised to address this demand and supply side problem keeping in mind their practicability. Currently, the recommendations are being discussed and implemented at ISB (Indian School of Business) Hyderabad campus.

Keywords: F&B industry, resource allocation, demand management, linear programming, LP, queuing analysis

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Authors: Anwar Jarndal

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In this paper, a genetic-neural-network (GNN) based large-signal model for GaN HEMTs is presented along with its parameters extraction procedure. The model is easy to construct and implement in CAD software and requires only DC and S-parameter measurements. An improved decomposition technique is used to model self-heating effect. Two GNN models are constructed to simulate isothermal drain current and power dissipation, respectively. The two model are then composed to simulate the drain current. The modeling procedure was applied to a packaged GaN-on-Si HEMT and the developed model is validated by comparing its large-signal simulation with measured data. A very good agreement between the simulation and measurement is obtained.

Keywords: GaN HEMT, computer-aided design and modeling, neural networks, genetic optimization

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Authors: Modupe O. Jimoh

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Waterfalls create an ambient environment for tourism and relaxation. They are also potential sources for water supply. Owu waterfall located at Isin Local Government, Kwara state, Nigeria is the highest waterfall in the West African region, yet none of its potential usefulness has been fully exploited. Water samples were taken from two sections of the fall and were analyzed for various water quality parameters. The results obtained include pH (6.71 ± 0.1), Biochemical oxygen demand (4.2 ± 0.5 mg/l), Chemical oxygen demand (3.07 ± 0.01 mg/l), Dissolved oxygen (6.59 ± 0.6 mg/l), Turbidity (4.43 ± 0.11 NTU), Total dissolved solids (8.2 ± 0.09 mg/l), Total suspended solids (18.25 ± 0.5 mg/l), Chloride ion (0.48 ± 0.08 mg/l), Calcium ion (0.82 ± 0.02 mg/l)), Magnesium ion (0.63 ± 0.03 mg/l) and Nitrate ion (1.25 ± 0.01 mg/l). The results were compared to the World Health Organisations standard for drinking water and the Nigerian standard for drinking water. From the comparison, it can be deduced that due to the Biochemical oxygen demand value, the water is not suitable for drinking unless it undergoes treatment. However, it is suitable for other classes of water usage.

Keywords: Owu falls, waterfall, water quality, water quality parameters, water use

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