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Authors: Mohammed Tou, Adel Toumoh

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The availability of IT services within organizations has become increasingly important; however, in an interconnected world favoring the distribution and offshoring of organizational information system components, availability is directly based on the constancy and uninterrupted flow of the Internet. Internet attendance guarantees the continuity of IT services. In this communication, we introduce paradigms around the concept of service continuity, as well as the technical approaches and methodologies leading to its resolution. As the heart of the problem is indeed the non-continuity of service, we first start by framing the notion of continuity in the context of services offered by the information system and identify the failures resulting from the discontinuity; thus, we refer to related research to extract the tools and technological paradigms allowing the implementation of solutions that guarantee a minimum of service continuity. If the main element causing continuity is the availability of the Internet, it is obvious to look for an alternative path, which is a conventional PSTN telephone network. To complete the chain of solutions, we mainly used concepts such as voice and speech recognition, AI, NLP, and cloud computing. The research led us to introduce an important element between the user and the service: the request represented by a voice message. Thus, the broker guarantees the delivery of the message to the right recipient service, as well as the response to the user. All of these elements are orchestrated by a pipeline that guarantees the integrity of the request and response. The concepts related to speech recognition are used for the initiation of the process of the solution, along with the combination of NLP, with its two statistical approaches and neural networks, and cloud technology secures the solution in both directions. The targeted solution does not replace 100 \ 100 the availability, by default, of the service; however, our research aims for a minimum of continuity by preventing the organizational information system from being put into total shutdown mode.

Keywords: Cloud, PSTN, NPL, NLU, AI, MTTR, MTBF, RPO, RTO, SLA, SLO, LSR, SRS

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Authors: Amare Setegn Enyew, Bikila Teklu Wodajo

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The primary aim of flexible pavement design is to ensure the development of economical and safe road infrastructure. However, failures can still occur due to improper or erroneous structural design. In Ethiopia, the design of flexible pavements relies on doing calculations manually and selecting pavement structure from catalogue. The catalogue offers, in eight different charts, alternative structures for combinations of traffic and subgrade classes, as outlined in the Ethiopian Roads Authority (ERA) Pavement Design Manual 2001. Furthermore, design modification is allowed in accordance with the structural number principles outlined in the AASHTO 1993 Guide for Design of Pavement Structures. Nevertheless, the manual calculation and design process involves the use of nomographs, charts, tables, and formulas, which increases the likelihood of human errors and inaccuracies, and this may lead to unsafe or uneconomical road construction. To address the challenge, a software called AASHERA has been developed for AASHTO 1993 and ERA design methods, using MATLAB language. The software accurately determines the required thicknesses of flexible pavement surface, base, and subbase layers for the two methods. It also digitizes design inputs and references like nomographs, charts, default values, and tables. Moreover, the software allows easier comparison of the two design methods in terms of results and cost of construction. AASHERA's accuracy has been confirmed through comparisons with designs from handbooks and manuals. The software can aid in reducing human errors, inaccuracies, and time consumption as compared to the conventional manual design methods employed in Ethiopia. AASHERA, with its validated accuracy, proves to be an indispensable tool for flexible pavement structure designers.

Keywords: flexible pavement design, AASHTO 1993, ERA, MATLAB, AASHERA

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Authors: Yehjune Heo

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As biometric systems become widely deployed, the security of identification systems can be easily attacked by various spoof materials. This paper contributes to finding a reliable and practical anti-spoofing method using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) based on the types of loss functions and optimizers. The types of CNNs used in this paper include AlexNet, VGGNet, and ResNet. By using various loss functions including Cross-Entropy, Center Loss, Cosine Proximity, and Hinge Loss, and various loss optimizers which include Adam, SGD, RMSProp, Adadelta, Adagrad, and Nadam, we obtained significant performance changes. We realize that choosing the correct loss function for each model is crucial since different loss functions lead to different errors on the same evaluation. By using a subset of the Livdet 2017 database, we validate our approach to compare the generalization power. It is important to note that we use a subset of LiveDet and the database is the same across all training and testing for each model. This way, we can compare the performance, in terms of generalization, for the unseen data across all different models. The best CNN (AlexNet) with the appropriate loss function and optimizers result in more than 3% of performance gain over the other CNN models with the default loss function and optimizer. In addition to the highest generalization performance, this paper also contains the models with high accuracy associated with parameters and mean average error rates to find the model that consumes the least memory and computation time for training and testing. Although AlexNet has less complexity over other CNN models, it is proven to be very efficient. For practical anti-spoofing systems, the deployed version should use a small amount of memory and should run very fast with high anti-spoofing performance. For our deployed version on smartphones, additional processing steps, such as quantization and pruning algorithms, have been applied in our final model.

Keywords: anti-spoofing, CNN, fingerprint recognition, loss function, optimizer

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Authors: Zainab A. Alaghbri, Labiba A., Esam A.

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Tuberculosis (TB) is the fourth leading cause of death in Yemen and is considered a major priority by the Ministry of Public Health. The war in Yemen has led to the emergence of one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. These circumstances may lead to exacerbate the situation of tuberculosis. This study aims to describe the trend and incidence of TB in north and east governorates, Yemen 2019-2021 and provide recommendations for interventions. A descriptive analysis was conducted during July to September 2022. Data of TB cases were obtained from the national tuberculosis program as soft copy. The Data included the TB case collected and diagnosed during 2019-2021. The data contains the following variables: Sex, age, governorates, smear-positive cases, extra-pulmonary cases, and treatment outcomes. 16791 TB cases were notified for an overall case notification rate 65.5/100000 for all forms (smear positive and Extra-pulmonary), There was a slightly declined in 2020 and 2021 by 1%. Both the pulmonary smear positive and Extra pulmonary rates were slightly decreased from 8.8 to 7.7 and 13.5 to 12.8 / 100, 000 populations respectively. For Tuberculosis cases by type of patient, the incidence of extra-pulmonary was the highest (12,9, 11.3 and 12,2/100000) over the three years. However, the incidence of pulmonary failure was the lowest. The majority of cases were in the age group 25-34. The overall treatment success rate for smear-positive patients was 88%. Of the 627 patients with documented unsuccessful outcomes (e.g., failure, death, and default), 165 (23%) died, 52 (8.3%) failed treatment, and 410 (65%) defaulted. Overall, the magnitude of tuberculosis decreased over the periods reviewed. The proportion of Extra-pulmonary TB was the highest. The success rate achieved after treatment was below the levels established by the WHO End Tuberculosis Strategy (90%). Failure to complete treatment may be responsible for the low success rate. Monitoring and addressing the risk factors that were associated with treatment outcomes and duration may help improve the likelihood of achieving favorable outcomes among cases of smear-positive pulmonary TB.

Keywords: tuberculosis, trend, incidence, yemen

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Authors: A. C. Dey, H. M. Ahsan

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Heterogeneous traffic composed of both motorized and non-motorized vehicles that are a common feature of urban Bangladeshi roads. Popular non-motorized vehicles include rickshaws, rickshaw-van, and bicycle. These modes performed an important role in moving people and goods in the absence of a dependable mass transport system. However, rickshaws play a major role in meeting the demand for door-to-door public transport services to the city dwellers. But there is no separate lane for non-motorized vehicles in this city. Non-motorized vehicles generally occupy the outermost or curb-side lanes, however, at intersections non-motorized vehicles get mixed with the motorized vehicles. That’s why the conventional models fail to analyze the situation completely. Microscopic traffic simulation software VISSIM 5.3, itself a lane base software but default behavioral parameters [such as driving behavior, lateral distances, overtaking tendency, CCO=0.4m, CC1=1.5s] are modified for calibrating a model to analyze the effects of non-motorized traffic at an intersection (Mirpur-10) in a non-lane based mixed traffic condition. It is seen from field data that NMV occupies an average 20% of the total number of vehicles almost all the link roads. Due to the large share of non-motorized vehicles, capacity significantly drop. After analyzing simulation raw data, significant variation is noticed. Such as the average vehicular speed is reduced by 25% and the number of vehicles decreased by 30% only for the presence of NMV. Also the variation of lateral occupancy and queue delay time increase by 2.37% and 33.75% respectively. Thus results clearly show the negative effects of non-motorized vehicles on capacity at an intersection. So special management technics or restriction of NMV at major intersections may be an effective solution to improve this existing critical condition.

Keywords: lateral occupancy, non lane based intersection, nmv, queue delay time, VISSIM 5.3

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Authors: Mareli Hattingh, I. Jaco Van der Walt, Frans B. Waanders

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A waste-to-energy plasma system was designed by Necsa for commercial use to create electricity from unsorted municipal waste. Fly ash particles must be removed from the syngas stream at operating temperatures of 1000 °C and recycled back into the reactor for complete combustion. A 2D2D high efficiency cyclone separator was chosen for this purpose. During this study, two cyclone design methods were explored: The Classic Empirical Method (smaller cyclone) and the Flow Characteristics Method (larger cyclone). These designs were optimized with regard to efficiency, so as to remove at minimum 90% of the fly ash particles of average size 10 μm by 50 μm. Wood was used as feed source at a concentration of 20 g/m³ syngas. The two designs were then compared at room temperature, using Perspex test units and three feed gases of different densities, namely nitrogen, helium and air. System conditions were imitated by adapting the gas feed velocity and particle load for each gas respectively. Helium, the least dense of the three gases, would simulate higher temperatures, whereas air, the densest gas, simulates a lower temperature. The average cyclone efficiencies ranged between 94.96% and 98.37%, reaching up to 99.89% in individual runs. The lowest efficiency attained was 94.00%. Furthermore, the design of the smaller cyclone proved to be more robust, while the larger cyclone demonstrated a stronger correlation between its separation efficiency and the feed temperatures. The larger cyclone can be assumed to achieve slightly higher efficiencies at elevated temperatures. However, both design methods led to good designs. At room temperature, the difference in efficiency between the two cyclones was almost negligible. At higher temperatures, however, these general tendencies are expected to be amplified so that the difference between the two design methods will become more obvious. Though the design specifications were met for both designs, the smaller cyclone is recommended as default particle separator for the plasma system due to its robust nature.

Keywords: Cyclone, design, plasma, renewable energy, solid separation, waste processing

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Authors: Emily Kambalame

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Water distribution networks necessitate many investments for construction, prompting researchers to seek cost reduction and efficient design solutions. Optimization techniques are employed in this regard to address these challenges. In this context, the penalty-free multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (PFMOEA) coupled with pressure-dependent analysis (PDA) was utilized to develop a multi-objective evolutionary search for the optimization of water distribution systems (WDSs). The aim of this research was to find out if the computational efficiency of the PFMOEA for WDS optimization could be enhanced. This was done by applying real coding representation and retaining different percentages of feasible and infeasible solutions close to the Pareto front in the elitism step of the optimization. Two benchmark network problems, namely the Two-looped and Hanoi networks, were utilized in the study. A comparative analysis was then conducted to assess the performance of the real-coded PFMOEA in relation to other approaches described in the literature. The algorithm demonstrated competitive performance for the two benchmark networks by implementing real coding. The real-coded PFMOEA achieved the novel best-known solutions ($419,000 and $6.081 million) and a zero-pressure deficit for the two networks, requiring fewer function evaluations than the binary-coded PFMOEA. In previous PFMOEA studies, elitism applied a default retention of 30% of the least cost-feasible solutions while excluding all infeasible solutions. It was found in this study that by replacing 10% and 15% of the feasible solutions with infeasible ones that are close to the Pareto front with minimal pressure deficit violations, the computational efficiency of the PFMOEA was significantly enhanced. The configuration of 15% feasible and 15% infeasible solutions outperformed other retention allocations by identifying the optimal solution with the fewest function evaluation

Keywords: design optimization, multi-objective evolutionary, penalty-free, water distribution systems

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Authors: Eric Jacob Bacon, Chaoyang Jin, Dianning He, Shuaishuai Hu, Lanbo Wang, Han Li, Shouliang Qi

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Objective: Refractory epilepsy is a complicated type of epilepsy that can be difficult to diagnose. Recent technological advancements have made resting-state functional magnetic resonance (rsfMRI) a vital technique for studying brain activity. However, there is still much to learn about rsfMRI. Investigating rsfMRI connectivity may aid in the detection of abnormal activities. In this paper, we propose studying the functional connectivity of rsfMRI candidates to diagnose epilepsy. Methods: 45 rsfMRI candidates, comprising 26 with refractory epilepsy and 19 healthy controls, were enrolled in this study. A data-driven approach known as independent component analysis (ICA) was used to achieve our goal. First, rsfMRI data from both patients and healthy controls were analyzed using group ICA. The components that were obtained were then spatially sorted to find and select meaningful ones. A two-sample t-test was also used to identify abnormal networks in patients and healthy controls. Finally, based on the fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF), a chi-square statistic test was used to distinguish the network properties of the patient and healthy control groups. Results: The two-sample t-test analysis yielded abnormal in the default mode network, including the left superior temporal lobe and the left supramarginal. The right precuneus was found to be abnormal in the dorsal attention network. In addition, the frontal cortex showed an abnormal cluster in the medial temporal gyrus. In contrast, the temporal cortex showed an abnormal cluster in the right middle temporal gyrus and the right fronto-operculum gyrus. Finally, the chi-square statistic test was significant, producing a p-value of 0.001 for the analysis. Conclusion: This study offers evidence that investigating rsfMRI connectivity provides an excellent diagnosis option for refractory epilepsy.

Keywords: ICA, RSN, refractory epilepsy, rsfMRI

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Authors: Jéssica Ferreira Rodrigues, Júlio Silvio De Sousa Bueno Filho, Vanessa Rios De Souza, Ana Carla Marques Pinheiro

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This study aimed to evaluate the implications of the block size and testing order on efficiency and precision of preference estimation for Dulce de leche samples. Efficiency was defined as the inverse of the average variance of pairwise comparisons among treatments. Precision was defined as the inverse of the variance of treatment means (or effects) estimates. The experiment was originally designed to test 16 treatments as a series of 8 Sudoku 16x16 designs being 4 randomized independently and 4 others in the reverse order, to yield balance in testing order. Linear mixed models were assigned to the whole experiment with 112 testers and all their grades, as well as their partially balanced subgroups, namely: a) experiment with the four initial EU; b) experiment with EU 5 to 8; c) experiment with EU 9 to 12; and b) experiment with EU 13 to 16. To record responses we used a nine-point hedonic scale, it was assumed a mixed linear model analysis with random tester and treatments effects and with fixed test order effect. Analysis of a cumulative random effects probit link model was very similar, with essentially no different conclusions and for simplicity, we present the results using Gaussian assumption. R-CRAN library lme4 and its function lmer (Fit Linear Mixed-Effects Models) was used for the mixed models and libraries Bayesthresh (default Gaussian threshold function) and ordinal with the function clmm (Cumulative Link Mixed Model) was used to check Bayesian analysis of threshold models and cumulative link probit models. It was noted that the number of samples tested in the same session can influence the acceptance level, underestimating the acceptance. However, proving a large number of samples can help to improve the samples discrimination.

Keywords: acceptance, block size, mixed linear model, testing order, testing order

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Authors: Tigabu Dagne Akal

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While advances in computer and communications technology have made the network ubiquitous, they have also rendered networked systems vulnerable to malicious attacks devised from a distance. These attacks or intrusions start with attackers infiltrating a network through a vulnerable host and then launching further attacks on the local network or Intranet. Nowadays, system administrators and network professionals can attempt to prevent such attacks by developing intrusion detection tools and systems using data mining technology. In this study, the experiments were conducted following the Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model. The Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model starts from selection of the datasets. The dataset used in this study has been taken from Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory. After taking the data, it has been pre-processed. The major pre-processing activities include fill in missed values, remove outliers; resolve inconsistencies, integration of data that contains both labelled and unlabelled datasets, dimensionality reduction, size reduction and data transformation activity like discretization tasks were done for this study. A total of 21,533 intrusion records are used for training the models. For validating the performance of the selected model a separate 3,397 records are used as a testing set. For building a predictive model for intrusion detection J48 decision tree and the Naïve Bayes algorithms have been tested as a classification approach for both with and without feature selection approaches. The model that was created using 10-fold cross validation using the J48 decision tree algorithm with the default parameter values showed the best classification accuracy. The model has a prediction accuracy of 96.11% on the training datasets and 93.2% on the test dataset to classify the new instances as normal, DOS, U2R, R2L and probe classes. The findings of this study have shown that the data mining methods generates interesting rules that are crucial for intrusion detection and prevention in the networking industry. Future research directions are forwarded to come up an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: intrusion detection, data mining, computer science, data mining

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Authors: Hans Tjio, Wee Meng Seng

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The interaction of contract and property has always been a concern in corporate and commercial law, where there are internal structures created that may not match the externally perceived image generated by the labels attached to those structures. We will focus, in particular, on the priority structures created by affirmative asset partitioning, which have increasingly come under challenge by those attempting to negotiate around them. The most prominent has been the AT1 bonds issued by Credit Suisse which were wiped out before its equity when the troubled bank was acquired by UBS. However, this should not have come as a surprise to those whose “bonds” had similarly been “redeemed” upon the occurrence of certain reference events in countries like Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan during their Minibond crisis linked to US sub-prime defaults. These were derivatives classified as debentures and sold as such. At the same time, we are again witnessing “liabilities” seemingly ranking higher up the balance sheet ladder, finding themselves lowered in events of default. We will examine the mechanisms holders of perpetual securities or preference shares have tried to use to protect themselves. This is happening against a backdrop that sees a rise in the strength of private credit and inter-creditor conflicts. The restructuring regime of the hybrid scheme in Singapore now, while adopting the absolute priority rule in Chapter 11 as the quid pro quo for creditor cramdown, does not apply to shareholders and so exempts them from cramdown. Complicating the picture further, shareholders are not exempted from cramdown in the Dutch scheme, but it adopts a relative priority rule. At the same time, the important UK Supreme Court decision in BTI 2014 LLC v Sequana [2022] UKSC 25 has held that directors’ duties to take account of creditor interests are activated only when a company is almost insolvent. All this has been complicated by digital assets created by businesses. Investors are quite happy to have them classified as property (like a thing) when it comes to their transferability, but then when the issuer defaults to have them seen as a claim on the business (as a choice in action), that puts them at the level of a creditor. But these hidden interests will not show themselves on an issuer’s balance sheet until it is too late to be considered and yet if accepted, may also prevent any meaningful restructuring.

Keywords: asset partitioning, creditor priority, restructuring, BTI v Sequana, digital assets

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Authors: Fadhl Qutaish

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This paper examines the pharyngealization spread in one of the Yemeni Arabic dialects, namely, Ibbi Arabic (IA). It investigates how pharyngealized sounds spread their acoustic features onto the neighboring vowels and change their default features. This feature has been investigated quietly well in MSA but still has to be deeply studied in the different dialect of Arabic which will bring about a clearer picture of the similarities and the differences among these dialects and help in mapping them based on the way this feature is utilized. Though the studies are numerous, no one of them has illustrated how far in the multi-syllabic word the spread can be and whether it takes a steady or gradient manner. This study tries to fill this gap and give a satisfactory explanation of the pharyngealization spread in Ibbi Dialect. This study is the first step towards a larger investigation of the different dialects of Yemeni Arabic in the future. The data recorded are represented in minimal pairs in which the trigger (pharyngealized or the non-pharyngealized sound) is in the initial or final position of monosyllabic and multisyllabic words. A group of 24 words were divided into four groups and repeated three times by three subjects which will yield 216 tokens that are tested and analyzed. The subjects are three male speakers aged between 28 and 31 with no history of neurological, speaking or hearing problems. All of them are bilingual speakers of Arabic and English and native speakers of Ibbi-Dialect. Recordings were done in a sound-proof room and praat software was used for the analysis and coding of the trajectories of F1 and F2 for the low vowel /a/ to see the effect of pharyngealization on the formant trajectory within the same syllable and in other syllables of the same word by comparing the F1 and F2 formants to the non-pharyngealized environment. The results show that pharyngealization spread is gradient (progressively and regressively). The spread is reflected in the gradual raising of F1 as we move closer towards the trigger and the gradual lowering of F2 as well. The results of the F1 mean values in tri-syllabic words when the trigger is word initially show that there is a raise of 37.9 HZ in the first syllable, 26.8HZ in the second syllable and 14.2HZ in the third syllable. F2 mean values undergo a lowering of 239 HZ in the first syllable, 211.7 HZ in the second syllable and 176.5 in the third syllable. This gradual decrease in the difference of F2 values in the non-pharyngealized and pharyngealized context illustrates that the spread is gradient. A similar result was found when the trigger is word-final which proves that the spread is gradient (progressively and regressively.

Keywords: pharyngealization, Yemeni Arabic, Ibbi dialect, pharyngealization spread

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Authors: Kholoud Abdulaziz, Kholoud Al-Najdi, Abdullah Kadri, Konstantinos E. Kakosimos

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The Middle East area is highly affected by air pollution induced by anthropogenic and natural phenomena. There is evidence that air pollution, especially particulates, greatly affects the population health. Many studies have raised a warning of the high concentration of particulates and their affect not just around industrial and construction areas but also in the immediate working and living environment. One of the methods to study air quality is continuous and periodic monitoring using active or passive samplers. Active monitoring and sampling are the default procedures per the European and US standards. However, in many cases they have been inefficient to accurately capture the spatial variability of air pollution due to the small number of installations; which eventually is attributed to the high cost of the equipment and the limited availability of users with expertise and scientific background. Another alternative has been found to account for the limitations of the active methods that is the passive sampling. It is inexpensive, requires no continuous power supply, and easy to assemble which makes it a more flexible option, though less accurate. This study aims to investigate and evaluate the use of passive sampling for particulate matter pollution monitoring in dry tropical climates, like in the Middle East. More specifically, a number of field measurements have be conducted, both indoors and outdoors, at Qatar and the results have been compared with active sampling equipment and the reference methods. The samples have been analyzed, that is to obtain particle size distribution, by applying existing laboratory techniques (optical microscopy) and by exploring new approaches like the white light interferometry to. Then the new parameters of the well-established model have been calculated in order to estimate the atmospheric concentration of particulates. Additionally, an extended literature review will investigate for new and better models. The outcome of this project is expected to have an impact on the public, as well, as it will raise awareness among people about the quality of life and about the importance of implementing research culture in the community.

Keywords: air pollution, passive samplers, interferometry, indoor, outdoor

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Authors: Iwona Cieślik, Władysław Migdał, Kinga Topolska, Ewa Cieślik

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The consumption of fish is recommended as a means of preventing serious diseases, especially cardiovascular problems. Fish is known to be a valuable source of protein (rich in essential amino acids), unsaturated fatty acids, fat-soluble vitamins, macro- and microelements. However, it can also contain several contaminants (e.g. pesticides, heavy metals) that may pose considerable risks for humans. Among others, pesticide are of special concern. Their widespread use has resulted in the contamination of environmental compartments, including water. The occurrence of pesticides in the environment is a serious problem, due to their potential toxicity. Therefore, a systematic monitoring is needed. The aim of the study was to determine the organochlorine and organophosphate pesticide residues in fish muscle tissues of the pike (Esox lucius, L.) and the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykkis, Walbaum) by a modified QuEChERS (Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe) method, using Gas Chromatography Quadrupole Mass Spectrometry (GC/Q-MS), working in selected-ion monitoring (SIM) mode. The analysis of α-HCH, β-HCH, lindane, diazinon, disulfoton, δ-HCH, methyl parathion, heptachlor, malathion, aldrin, parathion, heptachlor epoxide, γ-chlordane, endosulfan, α-chlordane, o,p'-DDE, dieldrin, endrin, 4,4'-DDD, ethion, endrin aldehyde, endosulfan sulfate, 4,4'-DDT, and metoxychlor was performed in the samples collected in the Carp Valley (Malopolska region, Poland). The age of the pike (n=6) was 3 years and its weight was 2-3 kg, while the age of the rainbow trout (n=6) was 0.5 year and its weight was 0.5-1.0 kg. Detectable pesticide (HCH isomers, endosulfan isomers, DDT and its metabolites as well as metoxychlor) residues were present in fish samples. However, all these compounds were below the limit of quantification (LOQ). The other examined pesticide residues were below the limit of detection (LOD). Therefore, the levels of contamination were - in all cases - below the default Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs), established by Regulation (EC) No 396/2005 of the European Parliament and of the Council. The monitoring of pesticide residues content in fish is required to minimize potential adverse effects on the environment and human exposure to these contaminants.

Keywords: contaminants, fish, pesticides residues, QuEChERS method

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Authors: Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang, Chujun Qiu

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Herewith we present a Fourier method for credit risk quantification and allocation in the factor-copula model framework. The key insight is that, compared to directly computing the cumulative distribution function of the portfolio loss via Monte Carlo simulation, it is, in fact, more efficient to calculate the transformation of the distribution function in the Fourier domain instead and inverting back to the real domain can be done in just one step and semi-analytically, thanks to the popular COS method (with some adjustments). We also show that the Euler risk allocation problem can be solved in the same way since it can be transformed into the problem of evaluating a conditional cumulative distribution function. Once the conditional or unconditional cumulative distribution function is known, one can easily calculate various risk metrics. The proposed method not only fills the niche in literature, to the best of our knowledge, of accurate numerical methods for risk allocation but may also serve as a much faster alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk quantification in general. It can cope with various factor-copula model choices, which we demonstrate via examples of a two-factor Gaussian copula and a two-factor Gaussian-t hybrid copula. The fast error convergence is proved mathematically and then verified by numerical experiments, in which Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and conditional Expected Shortfall are taken as examples of commonly used risk metrics. The calculation speed and accuracy are tested to be significantly superior to the MC simulation for real-sized portfolios. The computational complexity is, by design, primarily driven by the number of factors instead of the number of obligors, as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. The limitation of this method lies in the "curse of dimension" that is intrinsic to multi-dimensional numerical integration, which, however, can be relaxed with the help of dimension reduction techniques and/or parallel computing, as we will demonstrate in a separate paper. The potential application of this method has a wide range: from credit derivatives pricing to economic capital calculation of the banking book, default risk charge and incremental risk charge computation of the trading book, and even to other risk types than credit risk.

Keywords: credit portfolio, risk allocation, factor copula model, the COS method, Fourier method

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

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According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

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Authors: Aliaksandr Huminski

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Semantic Role Labeling (SRL) as shallow semantic parsing approach includes recognition and labeling arguments of a verb in a sentence. Verb participants are linked with specific semantic roles (Agent, Patient, Instrument, Location, etc.). Thus, SRL can answer on key questions such as ‘Who’, ‘When’, ‘What’, ‘Where’ in a text and it is widely applied in dialog systems, question-answering, named entity recognition, information retrieval, and other fields of NLP. However, SRL has the following flaw: Two sentences with identical (or almost identical) meaning can have different semantic role structures. Let consider 2 sentences: (1) John put butter on the bread. (2) John buttered the bread. SRL for (1) and (2) will be significantly different. For the verb put in (1) it is [Agent + Patient + Goal], but for the verb butter in (2) it is [Agent + Goal]. It happens because of one of the most interesting and intriguing features of a verb: Its ability to capture participants as in the case of the verb butter, or their features as, say, in the case of the verb drink where the participant’s feature being liquid is shared with the verb. This capture looks like a total fusion of meaning and cannot be decomposed in direct way (in comparison with compound verbs like babysit or breastfeed). From this perspective, SRL looks really shallow to represent semantic structure. If the key point in semantic representation is an opportunity to use it for making inferences and finding hidden reasons, it assumes by default that two different but semantically identical sentences must have the same semantic structure. Otherwise we will have different inferences from the same meaning. To overcome the above-mentioned flaw, the following approach is suggested. Assume that: P is a participant of relation; F is a feature of a participant; Vcp is a verb that captures a participant; Vcf is a verb that captures a feature of a participant; Vpr is a primitive verb or a verb that does not capture any participant and represents only a relation. In another word, a primitive verb is a verb whose meaning does not include meanings from its surroundings. Then Vcp and Vcf can be decomposed as: Vcp = Vpr +P; Vcf = Vpr +F. If all Vcp and Vcf will be represented this way, then primitive verbs Vpr can be considered as a canonical form for SRL. As a result of that, there will be no hidden participants caught by a verb since all participants will be explicitly unfolded. An obvious example of Vpr is the verb go, which represents pure movement. In this case the verb drink can be represented as man-made movement of liquid into specific direction. Extraction and using primitive verbs for SRL create a canonical representation unique for semantically identical sentences. It leads to the unification of semantic representation. In this case, the critical flaw related to SRL will be resolved.

Keywords: decomposition, labeling, primitive verbs, semantic roles

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Authors: Gabriel Legorreta Paulin, Marcus I. Bursik, Lilia Arana Salinas, Fernando Aceves Quesada

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In volcanic environments, landslides and debris flows occur continually along stream systems of large stratovolcanoes. This is the case on Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest mountain in Mexico. The volcano has a great potential to impact and damage human settlements and economic activities by landslides. People living along the lower valleys of Pico de Orizaba volcano are in continuous hazard by the coalescence of upstream landslide sediments that increased the destructive power of debris flows. These debris flows not only produce floods, but also cause the loss of lives and property. Although the importance of assessing such process, there is few landslide inventory maps and landslide susceptibility assessment. As a result in México, no landslide susceptibility models assessment has been conducted to evaluate advantage and disadvantage of models. In this study, a comprehensive study of landslide susceptibility models assessment using GIS technology is carried out on the SE flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano. A detailed multi-temporal landslide inventory map in the watershed is used as framework for the quantitative comparison of two landslide susceptibility maps. The maps are created based on 1) the Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP) model by using default geotechnical parameters and 2) by using findings of volcanic soils geotechnical proprieties obtained in the field. SINMAP combines the factor of safety derived from the infinite slope stability model with the theory of a hydrologic model to produce the susceptibility map. It has been claimed that SINMAP analysis is reasonably successful in defining areas that intuitively appear to be susceptible to landsliding in regions with sparse information. The validations of the resulting susceptibility maps are performed by comparing them with the inventory map under LOGISNET system which provides tools to compare by using a histogram and a contingency table. Results of the experiment allow for establishing how the individual models predict the landslide location, advantages, and limitations. The results also show that although the model tends to improve with the use of calibrated field data, the landslide susceptibility map does not perfectly represent existing landslides.

Keywords: GIS, landslide, modeling, LOGISNET, SINMAP

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Authors: Meysam Saidi

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While the specific externalities and required regulatory measures in relation to Islamic banking are fairly uncertain, the business is growing across the world. Unofficial data indicate that the Islamic Finance market is growing with annual rate of 15% and it has reached 1.3 $ trillion size. This trend is associated with inherent systematic connection of Islamic financial institutions to other entities and different sectors of economies. Islamic banking has been subject of market development policies in major economies, most notably the UK. This trend highlights the need for identification of distinct risk features of Islamic banking and crafting customized regulatory measures. So far there has not been a significant systemic crisis in this market which can be attributed to its distinct nature. However, the significant growth and spread of its products worldwide necessitate an in depth study of its nature for customized congruent regulatory measures. In the post financial crisis era some market analysis and reports suggested that the Islamic banks fairly weathered the crisis. As far as heavily blamed conventional financial products such as subprime mortgage backed securities and speculative credit default swaps were concerned the immunity claim can be considered true, as Islamic financial institutions were not directly exposed to such products. Nevertheless, similar to the experience of the conventional banking industry, it can be only a matter of time for Islamic banks to face failures that can be specific to the nature of their business. Using the experience of conventional banking regulations and identifying those peculiarities of Islamic banking that need customized regulatory approach can aid to prevent major failures. Frank Knight has stated that “We perceive the world before we react to it, and we react not to what we perceive, but always to what we infer”. The debate over congruent Islamic banking regulations might not be an exception to Frank Knight’s statement but I will try to base my discussion on concrete evidences. This paper first analyzes both theoretical and actual features of Islamic banking in order to ascertain to its peculiarities in terms of market stability and other externalities. Next, the paper discusses distinct features of Islamic financial transactions and banking which might require customized regulatory measures. Finally, the paper explores how a more transparent path for the Islamic banking regulations can be drawn.

Keywords: Islamic banking, regulation, risks, capital requirements, customer protection, financial stability

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Authors: Hai Chien Pham, Thi Phuong Anh Vo, Chansik Park

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Risks management in construction projects is important to ensure the positive feasibility of the projects in which financial risks are most concerned while construction projects always run on a credit basis. Credit risks, therefore, require unique and technical tools to be well managed. Underwriting technique in credit risks, in its most basic sense, refers to the process of evaluating the risks and the potential exposure of losses. Risks analysis and underwriting are applied as a must in banks and financial institutions who are supporters for constructions projects when required. Recently, construction organizations, especially contractors, have recognized the significant increasing of credit risks which caused negative impacts to project performance and profit of construction firms. Despite the successful application of underwriting in banks and financial institutions for many years, there are few contractors who are applying this technique to analyze and mitigate the credit risks of their potential owners before signing contracts with them for delivering their performed services. Thus, contractors have taken credit risks during project implementation which might be not materialized due to the bankruptcy and/or protracted default made by their owners. With this regard, this study proposes a model using the underwriting technique for contractors to analyze and assess credit risks of their owners before making final decisions for the potential construction contracts. Contractor’s underwriters are able to analyze and evaluate the subjects such as owner, country, sector, payment terms, financial figures and their related concerns of the credit limit requests in details based on reliable information sources, and then input into the proposed model to have the Overall Assessment Score (OAS). The OAS is as a benchmark for the decision makers to grant the proper limits for the project. The proposed underwriting model is validated by 30 subjects in Asia Pacific region within 5 years to achieve their OAS, and then compare output OAS with their own practical performance in order to evaluate the potential of underwriting model for analyzing and assessing credit risks. The results revealed that the underwriting would be a powerful method to assist contractors in making precise decisions. The contribution of this research is to allow the contractors firstly to develop their own credit risk management model for proactively preventing the credit risks of construction projects and continuously improve and enhance the performance of this function during project implementation.

Keywords: underwriting technique, credit risk, risk management, construction project

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Authors: Shubham Kumar, Chaitanya Goswami, Sudipto Sarkar

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Pseudoplastic (n < 1, n being the power index) fluid flow can be found in food, pharmaceutical and process industries and has very complex flow nature. To our knowledge, inadequate research work has been done in this kind of flow even at very low Reynolds numbers. Here, in the present computation, we have considered unsteady laminar flow over a square cylinder in pseudoplastic flow environment. For Newtonian fluid flow, this laminar vortex shedding range lies between Re = 47-180. In this problem, we consider Re = 100 (Re = U∞ a/ ν, U∞ is the free stream velocity of the flow, a is the side of the cylinder and ν is the kinematic viscosity of the fluid). The pseudoplastic fluid range has been chosen from close to the Newtonian fluid (n = 0.8) to very high pseudoplasticity (n = 0.1). The flow domain is constituted using Gambit 2.2.30 and this software is also used to generate mesh and to impose the boundary conditions. For all places, the domain size is considered as 36a × 16a with 280 ×192 grid point in the streamwise and flow normal directions respectively. The domain and the grid points are selected after a thorough grid independent study at n = 1.0. Fine and equal grid spacing is used close to the square cylinder to capture the upper and lower shear layers shed from the cylinder. Away from the cylinder the grid is unequal in size and stretched out in all direction. Velocity inlet (u = U∞), pressure outlet (Neumann condition), symmetry (free-slip boundary condition du/dy = 0, v = 0) at upper and lower domain boundary conditions are used for this simulation. Wall boundary (u = v = 0) is considered on the square cylinder surface. Fully conservative 2-D unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are discretized and then solved by Ansys Fluent 14.5 to understand the flow nature. SIMPLE algorithm written in finite volume method is selected for this purpose which is the default solver in scripted in Fluent. The result obtained for Newtonian fluid flow agrees well with previous work supporting Fluent’s usefulness in academic research. A minute analysis of instantaneous and time averaged flow field is obtained both for Newtonian and pseudoplastic fluid flow. It has been observed that drag coefficient increases continuously with the reduced value of n. Also, the vortex shedding phenomenon changes at n = 0.4 due to flow instability. These are some of the remarkable findings for laminar periodic vortex shedding regime in pseudoplastic flow environment.

Keywords: Ansys Fluent, CFD, periodic vortex shedding, pseudoplastic fluid flow

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Authors: Liu Si, Wang Chunmei, Liu Huangmei

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A prominent component of the semantic versus pragmatic debate, scalar implicature (SI) has been gaining great attention ever since it was proposed by Horn. The constant debate is between the structural and pragmatic approach. The former claims that generation of SI is costless, automatic, and dependent mostly on the structural properties of sentences, whereas the latter advocates both that such generation is largely dependent upon context, and that the process is costly. Many experiments, among which Katsos’s text comprehension experiments are influential, have been designed and conducted in order to verify their views, but the results are not conclusive. Besides, most of the experiments were conducted in English language materials. Katsos conducted one off-line and three on-line text comprehension experiments, in which the previous shortcomings were addressed on a certain extent and the conclusion was in favor of the pragmatic approach. We intend to test the results of Katsos’s experiment in Chinese scalar implicature. Four experiments in both off-line and on-line conditions to examine the generation and response time of SI in Chinese "yixie" (some) and "quanbu (dou)" (all) will be conducted in order to find out whether the structural or the pragmatic approach could be sustained. The study mainly aims to answer the following questions: (1) Can SI be generated in the upper- and lower-bound contexts as Katsos confirmed when Chinese language materials are used in the experiment? (2) Can SI be first generated, then cancelled as default view claimed or can it not be generated in a neutral context when Chinese language materials are used in the experiment? (3) Is SI generation costless or costly in terms of processing resources? (4) In line with the SI generation process, what conclusion can be made about the cognitive processing model of language meaning? Is it a parallel model or a linear model? Or is it a dynamic and hierarchical model? According to previous theoretical debates and experimental conflicts, presumptions could be made that SI, in Chinese language, might be generated in the upper-bound contexts. Besides, the response time might be faster in upper-bound than that found in lower-bound context. SI generation in neutral context might be the slowest. At last, a conclusion would be made that the processing model of SI could not be verified by either absolute structural or pragmatic approaches. It is, rather, a dynamic and complex processing mechanism, in which the interaction of language forms, ad hoc context, mental context, background knowledge, speakers’ interaction, etc. are involved.

Keywords: cognitive linguistics, pragmatics, scalar implicture, experimental study, Chinese language

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Authors: James P. Takona

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In a world that is experiencing sharp digital transformations guided by digital technologies, the potential of technology to drive transformation and evolution in the higher is apparent. Higher education is facing a paradigm shift that exposes susceptibilities and threats to fully online programs in the face of post-Covid-19 trends of commodification. This historical moment is likely to be remembered as a critical turning point from analog to digital degree-focused learning modalities, where the default became the pivot point of competition between higher education institutions. Fall 2020 marks a significant inflection point in higher education as students, educators, and government leaders scrutinize higher education's price and value propositions through the new lens of traditional lecture halls versus multiple digitized delivery modes. Online education has since tiled the way for a pedagogical shift in how teachers teach and students learn. The incremental growth of online education in the west can now be attributed to the increasing patronage among students, faculty, and institution administrators. More often than not, college instructors assume paraclete roles in this learning mode, while students become active collaborators and no longer passive learners. This paper offers valuable discernments into the threats, challenges, and opportunities of a massive digital revolution in servicing degree programs. To view digital instruction and learning demands for instructional practices that revolve around collaborative work, engaging students in learning activities, and an engagement that promotes active efforts to solicit strong connections between course activities and expected learning pace for all students. Appropriate digital technologies demand instructors and students need prior solid skills. Need for the use of digital technology to support instruction and learning, intelligent tutoring offers great promise, and failures at implementing digital learning may not improve outcomes for specific student populations. Digital learning benefits students differently depending on their circumstances and background and those of the institution and/or program. Students have alternative options, access to the convenience of learning anytime and anywhere, and the possibility of acquiring and developing new skills leading to lifelong learning.

Keywords: digi̇tized learning, digital education, collaborative work, high education, online education, digitize delivery

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Authors: Jean De Dieu Ayabagabo, Paul A.Onjoro, Karubiu P. Migwi, Marie C. Dusingize

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This study investigated the effects of feed on milk yield and quality through feed monitoring and quality assessment, and the consequent enteric methane gas emissions from smallholder dairy farms in drier areas of Rwanda, using the Tier II approach for four seasons in three zones, namely; Mayaga and peripheral Bugesera (MPB), Eastern Savanna and Central Bugesera (ESCB), and Eastern plateau (EP). The study was carried out using 186 dairy cows with a mean live weight of 292 Kg in three communal cowsheds. The milk quality analysis was carried out on 418 samples. Methane emission was estimated using prediction equations. Data collected were subjected to ANOVA. The dry matter intake was lower (p<0.05) in the long dry season (7.24 Kg), with the ESCB zone having the highest value of 9.10 Kg, explained by the practice of crop-livestock integration agriculture in that zone. The Dry matter digestibility varied between seasons and zones, ranging from 52.5 to 56.4% for seasons and from 51.9 to 57.5% for zones. The daily protein supply was higher (p<0.05) in the long rain season with 969 g. The mean daily milk production of lactating cows was 5.6 L with a lower value (p<0.05) during the long dry season (4.76 L), and the MPB zone having the lowest value of 4.65 L. The yearly milk production per cow was 1179 L. The milk fat varied from 3.79 to 5.49% with a seasonal and zone variation. No variation was observed with milk protein. The seasonal daily methane emission varied from 150 g for the long dry season to 174 g for the long rain season (p<0.05). The rain season had the highest methane emission as it is associated with high forage intake. The mean emission factor was 59.4 Kg of methane/year. The present EFs were higher than the default IPPC value of 41 Kg from developing countries in African, the Middle East, and other tropical regions livestock EFs using Tier I approach due to the higher live weight in the current study. The methane emission per unit of milk production was lower in the EP zone (46.8 g/L) due to the feed efficiency observed in that zone. Farmers should use high-quality feeds to increase the milk yield and reduce the methane gas produced per unit of milk. For an accurate assessment of the methane produced from dairy farms, there is a need for the use of the Life Cycle Assessment approach that considers all the sources of emissions.

Keywords: footprint, forage, girinka, tier

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Authors: Sandisiwe Mangali, Graeme Bradley

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Genome is complete set of the organism's hereditary information encoded as either deoxyribonucleic acid or ribonucleic acid in most viruses. The three different types of genomes are nuclear, mitochondrial and the plastid genome and their sequences which are uncovered by genome sequencing are known as an archive for all genetic information and enable researchers to understand the composition of a genome, regulation of gene expression and also provide information on how the whole genome works. These sequences enable researchers to explore the population structure, genetic variations, and recent demographic events in threatened species. Particularly, genome sequencing refers to a process of figuring out the exact arrangement of the basic nucleotide bases of a genome and the process through which all the afore-mentioned genomes are sequenced is referred to as whole or complete genome sequencing. Gelidium pristoides is South African endemic Rhodophyta species which has been harvested in the Eastern Cape since the 1950s for its high economic value which is one motivation for its sequencing. Its endemism further motivates its sequencing for conservation biology as endemic species are more vulnerable to anthropogenic activities endangering a species. As sequencing, mapping and annotating the Gelidium pristoides genome is the aim of this study. To accomplish this aim, the genomic DNA was extracted and quantified using the Nucleospin Plank Kit, Qubit 2.0 and Nanodrop. Thereafter, the Ion Plus Fragment Library was used for preparation of a 600bp library which was then sequenced through the Ion S5 sequencing platform for two runs. The produced reads were then quality-controlled and assembled through the SPAdes assembler with default parameters and the genome assembly was quality assessed through the QUAST software. From this assembly, the plastid and the mitochondrial genomes were then sampled out using Gelidiales organellar genomes as search queries and ordered according to them using the Geneious software. The Qubit and the Nanodrop instruments revealed an A260/A280 and A230/A260 values of 1.81 and 1.52 respectively. A total of 30792074 reads were obtained and produced a total of 94140 contigs with resulted into a sequence length of 217.06 Mbp with N50 value of 3072 bp and GC content of 41.72%. A total length of 179281bp and 25734 bp was obtained for plastid and mitochondrial respectively. Genomic data allows a clear understanding of the genomic constituent of an organism and is valuable as foundation information for studies of individual genes and resolving the evolutionary relationships between organisms including Rhodophytes and other seaweeds.

Keywords: Gelidium pristoides, genome, genome sequencing and assembly, Ion S5 sequencing platform

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Authors: Kate Parkinson

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A Family Group Conference (FGC) is a family-led decision-making process through which a family/kinship group, rather than the professionals involved, is asked to develop a plan for the care or the protection of children in the family. In England and Wales, FGCs are used in 76% of local authorities and in recent years, have tended to be used in cases where the local authority are considering the court process to remove children from their immediate family, to explore kinship alternatives to local authority care. Some local authorities offer the service much earlier, when families first come to the attention of children's social care, in line with research that suggests the earlier an FGC is held, the more likely they are to be successful. Family plans that result from FGCs are different from professional plans in that they are unique to a family and, as a result, reflect the diversity of families. Despite the fact that FGCs are arguable the most researched area of social work globally, there is a dearth of research that examines the nature of family plans and their substance. This paper presents the findings of a documentary analysis of 42 Early Help FGC plans from local authorities in England, with the aim of exploring the level and type of support that family members offer at a FGC. A thematic analysis identified 5 broad areas of support: Practical Support, Building Relationships, Child-care Support, Emotional Support and Social Support. In the majority of cases, family members did not want or ask for any formal support from the local authority or other agencies. Rather, the families came together to agree a plan of support, which was within the parameters of the resources that they as a family could provide. Perhaps then the role of the Early Help professional should be one of a facilitating and enabling role, to support families to develop plans that address their own specific difficulties, rather than the current default option, which is to either close the case because the family do not meet service thresholds or refer to formal support if they do, which may offer very specific support, have rigid referral criteria, long waiting lists and may not reflect the diverse and unique nature of families. FGCs are argued to be culturally appropriate social work practices in that they are appropriate for families from a range of cultural backgrounds and can be adapted to meet particular cultural needs. Furthermore, research on the efficacy of FGCs at an Early Help Level has demonstrated that Early Help FGCs have the potential to address difficulties in family life and prevent the need for formal support services, which are potentially stigmatising and do not reflect the uniqueness and diversity of families. The paper concludes with a recommendation for the use of FGCs across Early Help Services in England and Wales.

Keywords: family group conferences, family led decision making, early help, prevention

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Authors: Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi, Jordi Moreno Gené

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Managerial actions which negatively profile banks and impair corporate reputation are addressed through effective internal control systems. Disregard for acceptable standards and procedures for granting credit have affected bank loan portfolios and could be cited for the crises in some European countries. The study intends to determine the effectiveness of internal control systems, investigate whether perceived agency problems exist on the part of board members and to establish the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in the European Union. Drawing theoretical support from the behavioural compliance and agency theories, about seventeen internal control variables (drawn from the revised COSO framework), bank-specific, country, stock market and macro-economic variables will be involved in the study. A purely quantitative approach will be employed to model internal control variables covering the control environment, risk management, control activities, information and communication and monitoring. Panel data from 2005-2014 on listed banks from 28 European Union countries will be used for the study. Hypotheses will be tested and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression will be run to establish the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The Hausman test will be used to select whether random or fixed effect model will be used. It is expected that listed banks will have sound internal control systems but their effectiveness cannot be confirmed. A perceived agency problem on the part of the board of directors is expected to be confirmed. The study expects significant effect of internal controls on credit risk. The study will uncover another perspective of internal controls as not only an operational risk issue but credit risk too. Banks will be cautious that observing effective internal control systems is an ethical and socially responsible act since the collapse (crisis) of financial institutions as a result of excessive default is a major contagion. This study deviates from the usual primary data approach to measuring internal control variables and rather models internal control variables in a quantitative approach for the panel data. Thus a grey area in approaching the revised COSO framework for internal controls is opened for further research. Most bank failures and crises could be averted if effective internal control systems are religiously adhered to.

Keywords: agency theory, credit risk, internal controls, revised COSO framework

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Authors: Sarah E. Nelson, Casey Weiner, Alexander Sigmon, Jun Hua, Haris I. Sair, Jose I. Suarez, Robert D. Stevens

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Graph-theoretical information from structural connectomes indicated significant connectivity changes and improved acute prognostication in a Random Forest (RF) model in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), which can lead to significant morbidity and mortality and has traditionally been fraught by poor methods to predict outcome. This study’s hypothesis was that structural connectivity changes occur in canonical brain networks of acute aSAH patients, and that these changes are associated with functional outcome at six months. In a prospective cohort of patients admitted to a single institution for management of acute aSAH, patients underwent diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) as part of a multimodal MRI scan. A weighted undirected structural connectome was created of each patient’s images using Constant Solid Angle (CSA) tractography, with 176 regions of interest (ROIs) defined by the Johns Hopkins Eve atlas. ROIs were sorted into four networks: Default Mode Network, Executive Control Network, Salience Network, and Whole Brain. The resulting nodes and edges were characterized using graph-theoretic features, including Node Strength (NS), Betweenness Centrality (BC), Network Degree (ND), and Connectedness (C). Clinical (including demographics and World Federation of Neurologic Surgeons scale) and graph features were used separately and in combination to train RF and Logistic Regression classifiers to predict two outcomes: dichotomized modified Rankin Score (mRS) at discharge and at six months after discharge (favorable outcome mRS 0-2, unfavorable outcome mRS 3-6). A total of 56 aSAH patients underwent DTI a median (IQR) of 7 (IQR=8.5) days after admission. The best performing model (RF) combining clinical and DTI graph features had a mean Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (AUROC) of 0.88 ± 0.00 and Area Under the Precision Recall Curve (AUPRC) of 0.95 ± 0.00 over 500 trials. The combined model performed better than the clinical model alone (AUROC 0.81 ± 0.01, AUPRC 0.91 ± 0.00). The highest-ranked graph features for prediction were NS, BC, and ND. These results indicate reorganization of the connectome early after aSAH. The performance of clinical prognostic models was increased significantly by the inclusion of DTI-derived graph connectivity metrics. This methodology could significantly improve prognostication of aSAH.

Keywords: connectomics, diffusion tensor imaging, graph theory, machine learning, subarachnoid hemorrhage

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Authors: Udaykumar R., M. S. Ganachari

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In order to engage community pharmacies in Tuberculosis care, a survey has been conducted in Belgaum city, Karnataka state, India. After the survey divided into two groups one is control group and another one is intervention group. One is dispensing of anti-tuberculosis drugs, and another one is non-availability of anti-tuberculosis drugs. Those community pharmacists who are voluntarily interesting for becoming DOTS (Directly observed treatment short course) provider and RNTCP (Revised national tuberculosis control programme) objectives. Structured training is conducted for community pharmacist who are dispensing anti-tuberculosis drugs. The training module includes record maintaining, reporting to the RNTCP, Medication adherence etc. In case of non-availability of anti-tuberculosis drugs, the district RNTCP has been given training for community pharmacist by providing free of drugs to the community pharmacies. So, community pharmacies can dispense anti-tuberculosis drugs to the patients. The target of this study is Private community pharmacies. A simple random sampling method is used and 550 private community pharmacy shops has been involved in Belgaum city of Karnataka state, India. Significance of the Study: This study mainly focused on training of DOTS (Directly observed treatment short course) to the private community pharmacist. Indian Govt. Considers Private Providers as Assets for TB Control and Care to Achieve National Strategic Plan for TB Elimination 2017-2025. The Govt. has not fully tapped the Potential of Private Pharmacies to Fight TB. Providing DOTS as per patient’s convenience through community DOT Providers with periodic monitoring may reduce the treatment Default. We explore RNTCP objectives interventions that can have directly managed by private community pharmacy shop. Objectives: Survey of anti-tuberculosis drugs in Community pharmacy shop in Belgaum city. Interested community pharmacist who are willing to become DOTS (Directly observed treatment short course) Provider. Major Findings:Most of the community pharmacist are dispensing anti-tuberculosis drugs without having knowledge of DOTS therapy and RNTCP objectives. No community pharmacist is aware of RNTCP and Tuberculosis burden in India. Most of the Pharmacist agreed to come for RNTCP Training module for the community pharmacist. Some of the community pharmacist not dispensing anti-tuberculosis drugs and they agreed to become official DOTS provider. Concluding Statement: Awareness of role of community pharmacist on tuberculosis control and care has been neglected. More than 50% of tuberculosis patients seeking treatments from privatesector. In this study finds the major gap between government and private sector on tuberculosis treatment.

Keywords: community pharmacist, directly observed treatment short course(DOTS), revised national tuberculosis control programme (RNTCP), private pharmacies, anti-tuberculosis drugs

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Authors: Justyna Humięcka-Jakubowska

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1. Background in music analysis. Traditionally, when we think about a composer’s sketches, the chances are that we are thinking in terms of the working out of detail, rather than the evolution of an overall concept. Since music is a “time art’, it follows that questions of a form cannot be entirely detached from considerations of time. One could say that composers tend to regard time either as a place gradually and partially intuitively filled, or they can look for a specific strategy to occupy it. In my opinion, one thing that sheds light on Stockhausen's compositional thinking is his frequent use of 'form schemas', that is often a single-page representation of the entire structure of a piece. 2. Background in music technology. Sonic Visualiser is a program used to study a musical recording. It is an open source application for viewing, analysing, and annotating music audio files. It contains a number of visualisation tools, which are designed with useful default parameters for musical analysis. Additionally, the Vamp plugin format of SV supports to provide analysis such as for example structural segmentation. 3. Aims. The aim of my paper is to show how SV may be used to obtain a better understanding of the specific musical work, and how the compositional strategy does impact on musical structures and musical surfaces. I want to show that ‘traditional” music analytic methods don’t allow to indicate interrelationships between musical surface (which is perceived) and underlying musical/acoustical structure. 4. Main Contribution. Stockhausen had dealt with the most diverse musical problems by the most varied methods. A characteristic which he had never ceased to be placed at the center of his thought and works, it was the quest for a new balance founded upon an acute connection between speculation and intuition. In the case with Mikrophonie I (1964) for tam-tam and 6 players Stockhausen makes a distinction between the "connection scheme", which indicates the ground rules underlying all versions, and the form scheme, which is associated with a particular version. The preface to the published score includes both the connection scheme, and a single instance of a "form scheme", which is what one can hear on the CD recording. In the current study, the insight into the compositional strategy chosen by Stockhausen was been compared with auditory image, that is, with the perceived musical surface. Stockhausen's musical work is analyzed both in terms of melodic/voice and timbre evolution. 5. Implications The current study shows how musical structures have determined of musical surface. My general assumption is this, that while listening to music we can extract basic kinds of musical information from musical surfaces. It is shown that an interactive strategies of musical structure analysis can offer a very fruitful way of looking directly into certain structural features of music.

Keywords: automated analysis, composer's strategy, mikrophonie I, musical surface, stockhausen

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