Search results for: conditional cooperation

Authors: Hafsa Qabool, Rashna Sukhia, Mubassar Fida

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Introduction: Success of orthodontic mechanotherapy is highly dependent upon patient cooperation and compliance throughout the duration of treatment. This study was conducted to assess the cooperation and compliance of adult orthodontic patients during the leveling and alignment, space closure/molar correction, and finishing stages of tooth movement. Materials and Methods: Patient cooperation and compliance among three stages of orthodontic treatment were assessed using the Orthodontic Patient Cooperation Scale (OPCS) and Clinical Compliance Evaluation (CCE) form. A sample size of 38 was calculated for each stage of treatment; therefore, 114 subjects were included in the study. Shapiro-Wilk test identified that the data were normally distributed. One way ANOVA was used to evaluate the percentage cooperation and compliance among the three stages. Pair-wise comparisons between the three stages were performed using Post-hoc Tukey. Results: Statistically significant difference was seen for scores of patient compliance using CCE (p = 0.01); however, the results of the OPCS showed a non-significant difference for patient cooperation (p = 0.16) among the three stages of treatment. Post-hoc analysis showed significant differences (p = 0.01) in patient cooperation and compliance between space closure and the finishing stage. Highly significant (p < 0.001) decline in oral hygiene was found with the progression of orthodontic treatment. Conclusions: Improvement in the cooperation and compliance levels for adult orthodontic patients was observed during space closure & molar correction stage, which then showed a decline as treatment progressed. Oral hygiene was progressively compromised as orthodontic treatment progressed.

Keywords: patient compliance, adult orthodontics, orthodontic motivation, orthodontic patient adherence

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Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

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This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, linear mixed model, multivariate conditional autoregressive model, spatial time series

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Authors: Sarita Agarwal, Deepika Delsa Dean

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Like the task of transferring photo images to artistic images, image-to-image translation aims to translate the data to the imitated data which belongs to the target domain. Neural Style Transfer and CycleGAN are two well-known deep learning architectures used for photo image-to-art image transfer. However, studies involving these two models concentrate on one-to-one domain translation, not one-to-multi domains translation. Our study tries to investigate deep learning architectures, which can be controlled to yield multiple artistic style translation only by adding a conditional vector. We have expanded CycleGAN and constructed Conditional CycleGAN for 5 kinds of categories translation. Our study found that the architecture inserting conditional vector into the middle layer of the Generator could output multiple artistic images.

Keywords: genetic counseling, FMR1 gene, fragile x-associated primary ovarian insufficiency, premutation

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Authors: Nopadol Burananuth

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The purposes of this research paper were to study the relationship between the economic factor and political factor, the relationship between political and economic factor and social factor, and the effects of economic factor, political factor, and social factor to the people’s perception about ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). A total of 400 samples were selected from four sub-districts from Arunyaprathet District, Srakaow Province. Data analysis method included multiple regression analysis. The findings revealed that political factor depended on trade cooperation, transportation cooperation, and communication cooperation. Social factor was depended on disaster protection, terrorism protection, and international relations. In addition, the people’s perception of the AEC depended on disaster perception, terrorism protection, international relations, transportation cooperation, communication cooperation, interdependence, and labor movement.

Keywords: economic factors, perception, political factors, social factors

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Authors: Ewa M. Boryczka

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Contemporary city is a subject to rapid economic and social changes. Therefore it requires an active policy designed to meet the diverse needs of their residents, build competitive position and capacity to compete with other cities. Competitiveness of cities depends largely on their resources, but also to a large extent, on the policies and performance of local authorities. Cooperation with private and social sectors also plays an important role, as it affects the use of resources and builds an advantage over other cities. The subject of this article is city's contemporary problems of development with particular emphasis on central areas. This issue is a starting point for reflection on the process of urban regeneration in medium size cities in Poland, as well as cooperation between various actors and their roles in the revitalization processes of Polish cities' centres.

Keywords: city, cooperation between sectors, crisis of city centres, revitalization

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Authors: Xiao Chen, Alice Ho, Mabel Tie, Xiaoheng Xu

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Background and Significance of the Study: School-enterprise cooperation has been the cornerstone of vocational education in China and many other countries. Researchers and policymakers have paid much attention to ensuring the implementation and improving the quality of school-enterprise cooperation. However, many problems still exist on the implementation level of the cooperation. On the one hand, the enterprises lack the motivation to participate in the cooperation. On the other hand, there is a lack of effective guidance and management during the cooperation. Furthermore, the current literature focuses greatly on policy recommendations on the national level while failing to provide a detailed practical understanding of how school-enterprise cooperation is carried out on the ground level. With emerging social problems, such as the aging population in China, there is an increasing need for diverse nursing services and better nursing quality. Methodology: To gain a deeper understanding of the influencing factors of the implementation of school-enterprise cooperation, this work conducted 37 exploratory interviews in four Chinese cities spanning first-tier to fourth-tier cities with hospital department directors, vocational school deans, nurses, and vocational students. Multiple critical policy documents that founded the current vocational education system in China were analyzed, along with the data collected from the interviews. Major Findings: Based on the policy and interview analyses, this work reveals a set of influencing factors for school-enterprise cooperation implementation. Findings from each region contribute to an overall model of influencing factors for implementing school-enterprise cooperation in vocational nursing education in China, which leads to practical insights for policy recommendation. The key influencing factors are found based on the policy, hospital, school, and social levels. Following practical policy recommendations were presented. Moving forward, further research on the implementation of school-enterprise cooperation in specific industries will become increasingly critical to improving the effectiveness of educational policies and the quality of vocational education.

Keywords: nursing, policy recommendation, school-enterprise cooperation, vocational education

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Authors: Lakshmi Prayaga, Chandra Prayaga. Aaron Wade, Gopi Shankar Mallu, Harsha Satya Pola

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Synthetic data generated by Generative Adversarial Networks and Autoencoders is becoming more common to combat the problem of insufficient data for research purposes. However, generating synthetic data is a tedious task requiring extensive mathematical and programming background. Open-source platforms such as the Synthetic Data Vault (SDV) and Mostly AI have offered a platform that is user-friendly and accessible to non-technical professionals to generate synthetic data to augment existing data for further analysis. The SDV also provides for additions to the generic GAN, such as the Gaussian copula. We present the results from two synthetic data sets (CTGAN data and CTGAN with Gaussian Copula) generated by the SDV and report the findings. The results indicate that the ROC and AUC curves for the data generated by adding the layer of Gaussian copula are much higher than the data generated by the CTGAN.

Keywords: synthetic data generation, generative adversarial networks, conditional tabular GAN, Gaussian copula

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Authors: Shabnam Dadparvar, Laijin Shen

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After a period of conflict between Russia and the West, new signs of confrontation between the United States and China are observed. China, as the most populous country in the world with a high rate of economic growth, neither stands the hegemonic power of the United States nor has the intention of direct confrontation with it. By raising the costs of the United States’ leadership at the international level, China seeks to find a better status without direct confrontation with the US. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), as a soft balancing strategy against the hegemony of the United States is used as a tool to reach this goal. The authors by using a descriptive-analytical method try to explain the policies of China and the United States on Shanghai Cooperation Organization as well as confrontation between these two countries within the framework of 'balance of soft power theory'.

Keywords: balance of soft power, Central Asia, Shanghai cooperation organization, terrorism

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Authors: Ender Su, Kai Wen Wong, I-Ling Ju, Ya-Ling Wang

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In this study, the systemic risk change of Taiwan’s banking sector is analyzed during the financial crisis. The risk expose of each financial institutions to the whole Taiwan banking systemic risk or vice versa under financial distress are measured by conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and conditional coherent expected shortfall (CoES). The CoVaR and CoES are estimated by using vector quantile autoregression (MVMQ-CaViaR) with the daily stock returns of each banks included domestic and foreign banks in Taiwan. The daily in-sample data covered the period from 05/20/2002 to 07/31/2007 and the out-of-sample period until 12/31/2013 spanning the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis, 2010 Greek debt crisis, and post risk duration. All banks in Taiwan are categorised into several groups according to their size of market capital, leverage and domestic/foreign to find out what the extent of changes of the systemic risk as the risk changes between the individuals in the bank groups and vice versa. The final results can provide a guidance to financial supervisory commission of Taiwan to gauge the downside risk in the system of financial institutions and determine the minimum capital requirement hold by financial institutions due to the sensibility changes in CoVaR and CoES of each banks.

Keywords: bank financial distress, vector quantile autoregression, CoVaR, CoES

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Authors: Amel Ltifi, Ahmed Zouinkhi, Mohamed Salim Bouhlel

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Security and trust management in Vehicular Ad-hoc NETworks (VANET) is a crucial research domain which is the scope of many researches and domains. Although, the majority of the proposed trust management systems for VANET are based on specific road infrastructure, which may not be present in all the roads. Therefore, road security should be managed by vehicles themselves. In this paper, we propose a new Self Organized Trust Management system (SOTM). This system has the responsibility to cut with the spread of false warnings in the network through four principal components: cooperation, trust management, communication and security.

Keywords: ative vehicle, cooperation, trust management, VANET

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Authors: Ben Tappin, Ryan McKay

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The political left and right appear to disagree not only over questions of value but, also, over questions of fact—over what is true “out there” in society and the world. Alarmingly, a large body of survey data collected during the past decade suggests that this disagreement tends to be greatest among the most educated and most cognitively sophisticated opposing partisans. In other words, the data show that these individuals display the widest political polarization in their reported factual beliefs. Explanations of this polarization pattern draw heavily on cultural and political factors; yet, the large majority of the evidence originates from one cultural and political context—the United States, a country with a rather unique cultural and political history. One consequence is that widening political polarization conditional on education and cognitive sophistication may be due to idiosyncratic cultural, political or historical factors endogenous to US society—rather than a more general, international phenomenon. We examined widening political polarization conditional on education across Europe, over a topic that is culturally and politically contested; immigration. To do so, we analyzed data from the European Social Survey, a premier survey of countries in and around the European area conducted biennially since 2002. Our main results are threefold. First, we see widening political polarization conditional on education over beliefs about the economic impact of immigration. The foremost countries showing this pattern are the most influential in Europe: Germany and France. However, we also see heterogeneity across countries, with some—such as Belgium—showing no evidence of such polarization. Second, we find that widening political polarization conditional on education is a product of sorting. That is, highly educated partisans exhibit stronger within-group consensus in their beliefs about immigration—the data do not support the view that the more educated partisans are more polarized simply because the less educated fail to adopt a position on the question. Third, and finally, we find some evidence that shocks to the political climate of countries in the European area—for example, the “refugee crisis” of summer 2015—were associated with a subsequent increase in political polarization over immigration conditional on education. The largest increase was observed in Germany, which was at the centre of the so-called refugee crisis in 2015. These results reveal numerous insights: they show that widening political polarization conditional on education is not restricted to the US or native English-speaking culture; that such polarization emerges in the domain of immigration; that it is a product of within-group consensus among the more educated; and, finally, that exogenous shocks to the political climate may be associated with subsequent increases in political polarization conditional on education.

Keywords: beliefs, Europe, immigration, political polarization

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Authors: Salman Mohamadi, Seyed Mohammad Ali Tayaranian Hosseini, Hamidreza Amindavar

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In this paper, we provide a procedure to analyze and model EEG (electroencephalogram) signal as a time series using ARIMA-GARCH to predict an epileptic attack. The heteroskedasticity of EEG signal is examined through the ARCH or GARCH, (Autore- gressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) test. The best ARIMA-GARCH model in AIC sense is utilized to measure the volatility of the EEG from epileptic canine subjects, to forecast the future values of EEG. ARIMA-only model can perform prediction, but the ARCH or GARCH model acting on the residuals of ARIMA attains a con- siderable improved forecast horizon. First, we estimate the best ARIMA model, then different orders of ARCH and GARCH modelings are surveyed to determine the best heteroskedastic model of the residuals of the mentioned ARIMA. Using the simulated conditional variance of selected ARCH or GARCH model, we suggest the procedure to predict the oncoming seizures. The results indicate that GARCH modeling determines the dynamic changes of variance well before the onset of seizure. It can be inferred that the prediction capability comes from the ability of the combined ARIMA-GARCH modeling to cover the heteroskedastic nature of EEG signal changes.

Keywords: epileptic seizure prediction , ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH modeling, heteroskedasticity, EEG

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series

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Authors: Eka Darbaidze

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Due to its important geopolitical location and strategic economic situation, the South Caucasus has been a region that has been a crossroads of interests between different states and empires since ancient times. Over the centuries, the forms of international relations with regard to the South Caucasus region have been constantly changing, however, the national interests of the Caucasian nations as well as the interests of the regional hegemonic powers in relation to the countries of the South Caucasus have remained almost unchanged. The conflict-ridden South Caucasus's attempt to create a new format of regional cooperation has a rather rich history, dating back to the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, despite the diversity of initiatives, they do not deviate from the format of political statements and it is natural that the case was never settled before their implementation, as none of the previous cooperation initiatives was able to reach all members of the region. The current regional co-operation platform is linked to the name of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who spoke out about the initiative during a visit to Azerbaijan. The so-called 3 + 3 platform for regional cooperation involves cooperation between three countries in the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) and three "big neighbors" - Russia, Turkey and Iran. Very soon, the initiative received a positive response from the authorities of Azerbaijan, Iran and Armenia. According to them, this cooperation platform will strengthen cooperation between the countries involved in the regional platform and will focus on security, economic and transport issues. Our goal is to determine the interests of the main regional actors involved in the South Caucasus Cooperation Platform (3 + 3): Iran, Russia and Turkey. Our goal is also to determine what threats, risks or benefits may be associated with the involvement of the three countries of the South Caucasus: Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia in this platform and what will be the consequences for Georgia, whose 20% of its internationally recognized borders are still occupied by Russia and whose territory is still under creeping occupation.

Keywords: South Caucasus, Georgia's interest, the interests of Iran, the interests of Turkey, Russian interests, Georgia's occupation

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Authors: Yongmei Li, Chang-Gun Park

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China-Japan-South Korea (CJK) trilateral cooperation has experienced historical challenges in recent years, which negatively influenced the development of their relationship. Results of the interviews with three citizens on trilateral relations illustrate that most people are concerned with the historical conflicts among CJK. This paper specifically focuses on managing historical issues, including comfort women issues, territorial disputes, and divergence in historical education. Accordingly, the effectiveness of management of tensions productively provides a method for detecting historical concerns, managing issues, and connecting the three countries and citizens through advocating for fair media reporting, effective network institutionalization, and active local government cooperation. Furthermore, this paper contributes to providing government solutions for reinforcing the CJK partnership. It specially involves history education, East Asian identity and mutual trust establishment, East Asia intra-regional exchange programs, and reorganization of the role of the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat (TCS).

Keywords: China-Japan-South Korea, trilateral cooperation, government solutions, effectiveness of management, historical conflicts

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Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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Authors: Khalifa Maha, Ben Othman Hakim, Khaled Hussainey

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Prior empirical studies have investigated the economic consequences of accounting conservatism by examining its impact on the cost of equity capital (COEC). However, findings are not conclusive. We assume that inconsistent results of such association may be attributed to the regression models used in data analysis. To address this issue, we re-examine the effect of different dimension of accounting conservatism: unconditional conservatism (U_CONS) and conditional conservatism (C_CONS) on the COEC for a sample of listed firms from Middle Eastern and North Africa (MENA) countries, applying quantile regression (QR) approach developed by Koenker and Basset (1978). While classical ordinary least square (OLS) method is widely used in empirical accounting research, however it may produce inefficient and bias estimates in the case of departures from normality or long tail error distribution. QR method is more powerful than OLS to handle this kind of problem. It allows the coefficient on the independent variables to shift across the distribution of the dependent variable whereas OLS method only estimates the conditional mean effects of a response variable. We find as predicted that U_CONS has a significant positive effect on the COEC however, C_CONS has a negative impact. Findings suggest also that the effect of the two dimensions of accounting conservatism differs considerably across COEC quantiles. Comparing results from QR method with those of OLS, this study throws more lights on the association between accounting conservatism and COEC.

Keywords: unconditional conservatism, conditional conservatism, cost of equity capital, OLS, quantile regression, emerging markets, MENA countries

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Authors: Rungrot Trongsakul

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This paper was aimed to study the strategic cooperation development of Thailand in accordance with the door open policy of Myanmar, by use of DIMES Model: Diplomacy, Information, Military and Economics, Socio-Culture. This research employed qualitative method, aiming to study, analyze and synthesize the content of laws, policies, relevant research papers and documents, and relevant theories, and to study external environment and national power based on DIMES Model. The five steps of strategic development utilized in this study included (1) conceptual framework and definition; (2) environmental scanning; (3) assessing; (4) determining; and (5) drafting strategic plan. The suggested strategies were based on the concept of 'Soft Power'. Therefore, the determination of measures, action plans or projects as strategic means of public and private organizations should be based on sincere participation among people and communities living on the borders shared by both countries. Adoption of education, learning and sharing process is a key to building sustainability of the countries’ strategic cooperation, while an application of 'Soft Power' in all dimensions of the cooperation between the two countries was suggested.

Keywords: education, strategic cooperation, Thailand-Myanmar borders, sustainability

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Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

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Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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Authors: Valerie Habbel, Magdalena Orth, Johanna Richter, Steffen Schimko

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Cooperation between development actors and the private sector is becoming increasingly important, as it is expected to mobilize additional resources to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), among other things. However, whether the goals of cooperation are achieved has so far only been explored in evaluations and studies of individual projects and instruments. The evaluation synthesis attempts to close this gap by systematically analyzing existing evidence (evaluations and academic studies) from national and international development cooperation on private sector engagement. Overall, the evaluations and studies considered report mainly positive effects on investors and donors, intermediaries, partner countries, and target groups. However, various analyses, including on the quality of the evaluations, point to a positive bias in the results. The evaluation synthesis makes recommendations on the definition of indicators, the measurement and evaluation of impacts and additionality, knowledge management, and the consideration of transaction costs in cooperation with private actors.

Keywords: evaluation synthesis, private sector engagement, international development, sustainable development

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Authors: Md. Reduanul Haque

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In recent time, more and more refugees are emerging in the international arena than the times ever that has come into the notice of world scholars. The prevailing customary solutions such as voluntary repatriation, local integration, and resettlement of refugee problem have been reflected unsustainable one for the lack of regional cooperation. In the international arena, the protraction of refugee problems is seen, and refugees are suffering due to the outrageous process of customary refugee solutions. If the regional cooperation can be developed, then the suffering of the refugees can be mitigated by the contribution of neighboring country and international and regional organizations. Data collected from the various secondary sources have been used throughout the research. It has been discussing in the refugee academia for a long time to develop regional cooperation mechanisms to ensure the sustainability of this solution and to make the environment of the country of origin for suitable voluntary repatriation as well as a durable solution. It is mainly qualitative research based on primary and secondary data will be studied on library-based project. Data collected by such methodology on this study indicates to make a bridge between the gaps of the cooperation mechanism and to make a more regional approach to share the burden and to strengthen the customary refugee solution. Hence, the importance of questing for a regional mechanism is to ensure the responsible countries to be more responsible towards refugees, their human rights, and durable solution under the mandate of the UNHCR. To implement effectively all the customary durable solutions, country to country or regional organization to organization based regional cooperation can be developed where the countries and regional organizations will work together to draw a sustainable solution to this problem in international context.

Keywords: refugee, regional cooperation, sustainable implementation, customary solutions, international arena

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Authors: Jordan Daud, Satriya Wibawa, Wahyu Wardhana

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The US Global War on Terror has had effect on Southeast Asia as Second Front of Global War on Terror. Since 2001, ASEAN had adopted legal framework to counter the terrorist threat through numerous approach which accommodate various counterterrorism policy of the ten member states. ASEAN have also enhanced multilateral cooperation with US and its allies in Asia Pacific region in addressing terrorist threat, terrorist funding, cyber terrorism and other forms of terrorism. This cooperation is essential to maintain international security and stability and also assure economic development. This work focuses on the US-ASEAN counterterrorism cooperation due to they identified terrorism as a mutual enemy that posed to human security, infrastructure security, and national security. Having in mind that international terrorism usually connected with Muslim community, this paper will also elaborate the concept of Jihad and Islam revivalism in politics to avoid negative image of Islam and Muslim. This paper argues that as region with large Muslim community, Southeast Asia still need to tighten counter terrorism cooperation and also lessening Muslim stereotypes with terrorism through educating public understanding and inter-faith and intra-faith dialogue to create a better world.

Keywords: ASEAN, U.S., counter terrorism, Muslim stereotypes

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Authors: Aries Nawel, Bentarzi Mohamed

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This paper deals with the study of some probabilistic and statistical properties of a Periodic Integer-Valued Moving Average Model (PINMA_{S}(q)). The closed forms of the mean, the second moment and the periodic autocovariance function are obtained. Furthermore, the time reversibility of the model is discussed in details. Moreover, the estimation of the underlying parameters are obtained by the Yule-Walker method, the Conditional Least Square method (CLS) and the Weighted Conditional Least Square method (WCLS). A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of the estimation method. Moreover, an application on real data set is provided.

Keywords: periodic integer-valued moving average, periodically correlated process, time reversibility, count data

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Authors: Chastiti Mediafira Wulolo, Tri Legionosuko, Suhirwan, Yusuf

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Terrorism and radicalization have become a common threat to every nation in this world. As a part of the asymmetric warfare threat, terrorism and radicalization need a complex strategy as the problem solver. One such way is by collaborating with the international community. The Our Eyes Initiative (OEI), for example, is a cooperation pact in the field of intelligence information exchanges related to terrorism and radicalization initiated by the Indonesian Ministry of Defence. The pact has been signed by Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, Thailand, and Singapore. This cooperation mostly engages military acts as a central role, but it still requires the involvement of various parties such as the police, intelligence agencies and other government institutions. This paper will use a qualitative content analysis method to address the opportunity and enhance the optimization of OEI. As the result, it will explain how OEI takes the opportunities as the strategy for counter-terrorism by building it up as the regional cooperation, building the legitimacy of government and creating the legal framework of the information sharing system.

Keywords: our eyes initiative, terrorism, counter-terrorism, ASEAN, cooperation, strategy

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Authors: Fayaz Moosavi, Saeid Moradyfard

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One of the methods in avoiding management fraud and increasing the quality of financial information, is the notification of qualitative features of financial information, including conservatism characteristic. Although taking a conservatism approach, while boosting the quality of financial information, is able to reduce the informational risk and the cost of capital stock of commercial department, by presenting an improper image about the situation of the commercial department, raises the risk of failure in returning the main and capital interest, and consequently the cost of capital of the commercial department. In order to know if conservatism finally leads to the increase or decrease of the cost of capital or does not have any influence on it, information regarding accepted companies in Tehran stock exchange is utilized by application of pooling method from 2007 to 2012 and it included 124 companies. The results of the study revealed that there is an opposite and meaningful relationship between conditional conservatism and the cost of capital of the company. In other words, if bad and unsuitable news and signs are reflected sooner than good news in accounting profit, the cost of capital of the company increases. In addition, there is a positive and meaningful relationship between the cost of capital and lack of information asymmetry.

Keywords: conditional conservatism, lack of information asymmetry, the cost of capital, stock exchange

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Authors: Loide Sambo

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Achieving energy security has, in the past few decades, become one of the main goals in the security agenda of every country around the world. For Southern African Countries (SAC) the aim is not different, yet these countries face a particular challenge in the pursuit of their energy security. More than just secure enough energy sources to fuel their industrial and societal needs, SAC have as well to ensure that they trade their rich energy resources to the global market in a way that promotes and safeguards their economic development objectives. Considering the relevance of this issue to the SAC, the present paper explores the possibility of these countries to achieve energy security through regional cooperation, under the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) platform. It discusses the challenges and opportunities for advancing energy security in this region through cooperation. After analyzing the data through the documentary analysis method, it was found that regional cooperation among SAC to improve energy security is not effective since cooperation in the region is still very susceptible to a plethora of challenges, such as political instability, lack of development of infrastructure and expertise, lack of good governance, lack of sense of cohesiveness, and most important lack of political commitment. It was also found that significant commitment on regional cooperation had been centered on the electricity sub-sector due to the region’s huge electricity deficit. Thus less commitment is dedicated to the development and policy harmonization of the other sub-sectors such as the one of natural gas and oil, for instance. Hence, it is recommended that the leadership of the SAC is fully committed to cooperate and harmonize the policies, the strategic plans, as well as the infrastructure concerning to all the natural energy resources and its respective sub-sectors. This would provide the SAC significant leverage to negotiate for the energy market access, ensuring that the region’s energy commodities are traded, while the countries themselves retain enough energy to sustain their economic growth and development, improving, therefore, their energy security.

Keywords: regional cooperation, energy security, economic development, political commitment

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Authors: Cheng Zeng, George Michailidis, Hitoshi Iyatomi, Leo L. Duan

Abstract:

The conditional density characterizes the distribution of a response variable y given other predictor x and plays a key role in many statistical tasks, including classification and outlier detection. Although there has been abundant work on the problem of Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) for a low-dimensional response in the presence of a high-dimensional predictor, little work has been done for a high-dimensional response such as images. The promising performance of normalizing flow (NF) neural networks in unconditional density estimation acts as a motivating starting point. In this work, the authors extend NF neural networks when external x is present. Specifically, they use the NF to parameterize a one-to-one transform between a high-dimensional y and a latent z that comprises two components [zₚ, zₙ]. The zₚ component is a low-dimensional subvector obtained from the posterior distribution of an elementary predictive model for x, such as logistic/linear regression. The zₙ component is a high-dimensional independent Gaussian vector, which explains the variations in y not or less related to x. Unlike existing CDE methods, the proposed approach coined Augmented Posterior CDE (AP-CDE) only requires a simple modification of the common normalizing flow framework while significantly improving the interpretation of the latent component since zₚ represents a supervised dimension reduction. In image analytics applications, AP-CDE shows good separation of 𝑥-related variations due to factors such as lighting condition and subject id from the other random variations. Further, the experiments show that an unconditional NF neural network based on an unsupervised model of z, such as a Gaussian mixture, fails to generate interpretable results.

Keywords: conditional density estimation, image generation, normalizing flow, supervised dimension reduction

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Authors: Tamar Arieli

Abstract:

Cross-border cooperation has long been hailed as a means for stabilizing and normalizing relations between former enemies. Cooperation in problem-solving and realizing of local interests in post-conflict environments can indeed serve as a basis for developing dialogue and meaningful relations between neighbors across borders. Hence the potential for formerly sealed borders to serve as a basis for generating local and national perceptions of interdependence and as a buffer against the resume of conflict. Central questions which arise for policy-makers and third parties are how to facilitate cross-border cooperation and which areas of cooperation best serve to normalize post-conflict border regions. The Israel-Jordan border functions as a post-conflict border, in that it is a peaceful border since the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty yet cross-border relations are defined but the highly securitized nature of the border region and the ongoing Arab-Israel regional conflict. This case study is based on long term qualitative research carried out in the border regions of both Israel and Jordan, which mapped and analyzed cross-border in a wide range of activities – social interactions sponsored by peace-facilitating NGOs, government sponsored agricultural cooperation, municipal initiated emergency planning in cross-border continuous urban settings, private cross-border business ventures and various environmental cooperative initiatives. These cooperative initiatives are evaluated through multiple interviews carried out with initiators and partners in cross-border cooperation as well as analysis of documentation, funding and media. These cooperative interactions are compared based on levels of cross-border local and official awareness and involvement as well as sustainability over time. This research identifies environmental cooperation as the most sustainable area of cross- border cooperation and as most conducive to generating perceptions of regional interdependence. This is a variation to the ‘New Middle East’ vision of business-based cooperation leading to conflict amelioration and regional stability. Environmental cooperation serving the public good rather than personal profit enjoys social legitimization even in the face of widespread anti-normalization sentiments common in the post-conflict environment. This insight is examined in light of philosophical and social aspects of the natural environment and its social perceptions. This research has theoretical implications for better understanding dynamics of cooperation and conflict, as well as practical ramifications for practitioners in border region policy and management.

Keywords: borders, cooperation, post-conflict, security

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Authors: Li-Ching Chen

Abstract:

The case-control design has been widely applied in clinical and epidemiological studies to investigate the association between risk factors and a given disease. The retrospective design can be easily implemented and is more economical over prospective studies. To adjust effects for confounding factors, methods such as stratification at the design stage and may be adopted. When some major confounding factors are difficult to be quantified, a matching design provides an opportunity for researchers to control the confounding effects. The matching effects can be parameterized by the intercepts of logistic models and the conditional logistic regression analysis is then adopted. This study demonstrates an information-matrix-based goodness-of-fit statistic to test the validity of the logistic regression model for matched case-control data. The asymptotic null distribution of this proposed test statistic is inferred. It needs neither to employ a simulation to evaluate its critical values nor to partition covariate space. The asymptotic power of this test statistic is also derived. The performance of the proposed method is assessed through simulation studies. An example of the real data set is applied to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method as well.

Keywords: conditional logistic model, goodness-of-fit, information matrix, matched case-control studies

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Authors: M. K. Witek-Hajduk, T. M. Napiórkowski

Abstract:

A number of studies discussed the topic of benefits of retailers-manufacturers cooperation and coopetition. However, there are only few publications focused on the benefits of cooperation and coopetition between retailers and their suppliers of durable consumer goods; especially in the context of business model of cooperating partners. This paper aims to provide a clustering approach to segment retailers selling consumer durables according to the benefits they obtain from their cooperation with key manufacturers and differentiate the said retailers’ in term of the business models of cooperating partners. For the purpose of the study, a survey (with a CATI method) collected data on 603 consumer durables retailers present on the Polish market. Retailers are clustered both, with hierarchical and non-hierarchical methods. Five distinctive groups of consumer durables’ retailers are (based on the studied benefits) identified using the two-stage clustering approach. The clusters are then characterized with a set of exogenous variables, key of which are business models employed by the retailer and its partnering key manufacturer. The paper finds that the a combination of a medium sized retailer classified as an Integrator with a chiefly domestic capital and a manufacturer categorized as a Market Player will yield the highest benefits. On the other side of the spectrum is medium sized Distributor retailer with solely domestic capital – in this case, the business model of the cooperating manufactrer appears to be irreleveant. This paper is the one of the first empirical study using cluster analysis on primary data that defines the types of cooperation between consumer durables’ retailers and manufacturers – their key suppliers. The analysis integrates a perspective of both retailers’ and manufacturers’ business models and matches them with individual and joint benefits.

Keywords: benefits of cooperation, business model, cluster analysis, retailer-manufacturer cooperation

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