Search results for: clinical prediction rule

Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

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Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

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Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, software entropy

Procedia PDF Downloads 552

Authors: Dorota Witkowska, Paweł Gosek, Lukasz Swiecicki, Wojciech Jernajczyk, Bruce J. West, Miroslaw Latka

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In clinical practice, the selection of an antidepressant often degrades to lengthy trial-and-error. In this work we employ a normalized wavelet power of alpha waves as a biomarker of antidepressant treatment response. This novel EEG metric takes into account both non-stationarity and intersubject variability of alpha waves. We recorded resting, 19-channel EEG (closed eyes) in 22 inpatients suffering from unipolar (UD, n=10) or bipolar (BD, n=12) depression. The EEG measurement was done at the end of the short washout period which followed previously unsuccessful pharmacotherapy. The normalized alpha wavelet power of 11 responders was markedly different than that of 11 nonresponders at several, mostly temporoparietal sites. Using the prediction of treatment response based on the normalized alpha wavelet power, we achieved 81.8% sensitivity and 81.8% specificity for channel T4.

Keywords: alpha waves, antidepressant, treatment outcome, wavelet

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Authors: H. Zidoum, A. AlShareedah, S. Al Sawafi, A. Al-Ansari, B. Al Lawati

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Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease with genetic and environmental components. SLE is characterized by a wide variability of clinical manifestations and a course frequently subject to unpredictable flares. Despite recent progress in classification tools, the early diagnosis of SLE is still an unmet need for many patients. This study proposes an interpretable disease classification model that combines the high and efficient predictive performance of CatBoost and the model-agnostic interpretation tools of Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The CatBoost model was trained on a local cohort of 219 Omani patients with SLE as well as other control diseases. Furthermore, the SHAP library was used to generate individual explanations of the model's decisions as well as rank clinical features by contribution. Overall, we achieved an AUC score of 0.945, F1-score of 0.92 and identified four clinical features (alopecia, renal disorders, cutaneous lupus, and hemolytic anemia) along with the patient's age that was shown to have the greatest contribution on the prediction.

Keywords: feature selection, classification, systemic lupus erythematosus, model interpretation, SHAP, Catboost

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

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Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uni-axial tension, equi bi-axial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction

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Authors: Amit R. Bhende, G. K. Awari

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Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of key technologies to realize prognostics and health management that is being widely applied in many industrial systems to ensure high system availability over their life cycles. The present work proposes a data-driven method of RUL prediction based on multiple health state assessment for rolling element bearings. Bearing degradation data at three different conditions from run to failure is used. A RUL prediction model is separately built in each condition. Feed forward back propagation neural network models are developed for prediction modeling.

Keywords: bearing degradation data, remaining useful life (RUL), back propagation, prognosis

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Authors: Claire Xu, Welton Wang, Manasvi Pinnaka, Anqi Pan, Michael Han

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Hospitalizations account for one-third of the total health care spending in the US. Early risk detection and intervention can reduce this high cost and increase the satisfaction of both patients and physicians. Due to the lack of awareness of the potential arising risks in home environment, the opportunities for patients to seek early actions of clinical visits are dramatically reduced. This research aims to offer a highly personalized remote patients monitoring and risk assessment AI framework to identify the potentially preventable hospitalization for both acute as well as chronic diseases. A hybrid-AI framework is trained with data from clinical setting, patients surveys, as well as online databases. 20+ risk factors are analyzed ranging from activities, biometric info, demographic info, socio-economic info, hospitalization history, medication info, lifestyle info, etc. The AI model yields high performance of 87% accuracy and 88 sensitivity with 20+ features. This hybrid-AI framework is proven to be effective in identifying the potentially preventable hospitalization. Further, the high indicative features are identified by the models which guide us to a healthy lifestyle and early intervention suggestions.

Keywords: hospitalization prevention, machine learning, remote patient monitoring, risk prediction

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Authors: Swapan Maiti, Dipanwita Roy Chowdhury

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Nonlinear functions are essential in different cryptoprimitives as they play an important role on the security of the cipher designs. Rule 30 was identified as a powerful nonlinear function for cryptographic applications. However, an attack (MS attack) was mounted against Rule 30 Cellular Automata (CA). Nonlinear rules as well as maximum period CA increase randomness property. In this work, nonlinear rules of maximum period nonlinear hybrid CA (M-NHCA) are studied and it is shown to be a better crypto-primitive than Rule 30 CA. It has also been analysed that the M-NHCA with single nonlinearity injection proposed in the literature is vulnerable against MS attack, whereas M-NHCA with multiple nonlinearity injections provide maximum length cycle as well as better cryptographic primitives and they are also secure against MS attack.

Keywords: cellular automata, maximum period nonlinear CA, Meier and Staffelbach attack, nonlinear functions

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Authors: Qiang Zhang, Chun Yuan

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Since the PU (Prediction Unit) decision process is the most time consuming part of the emerging HEVC (High Efficient Video Coding) standardin intra and inter frame coding, this paper proposes the fast PU decision algorithm and speed up the algorithm using CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture). In intra frame coding, the fast PU decision algorithm uses the texture features to skip intra-frame prediction or terminal the intra-frame prediction for smaller PU size. In inter frame coding of HEVC, the fast PU decision algorithm takes use of the similarity of its own two Nx2N size PU's motion vectors and the hierarchical structure of CU (Coding Unit) partition to skip some modes of PU partition, so as to reduce the motion estimation times. The accelerate algorithm using CUDA is based on the fast PU decision algorithm which uses the GPU to make the motion search and the gradient computation could be parallel computed. The proposed algorithm achieves up to 57% time saving compared to the HM 10.0 with little rate-distortion losses (0.043dB drop and 1.82% bitrate increase on average).

Keywords: HEVC, PU decision, inter prediction, intra prediction, CUDA, parallel

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Authors: J. K. Alhassan, C. S. Actsu

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This study is on the prediction of feature performance of undergraduate students with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). With the growing decline in the quality academic performance of undergraduate students, it has become essential to predict the students’ feature academic performance early in their courses of first and second years and to take the necessary precautions using such prediction-based information. The feed forward multilayer neural network model was used to train and develop a network and the test carried out with some of the input variables. A result of 80% accuracy was obtained from the test which was carried out, with an average error of 0.009781.

Keywords: academic performance, artificial neural network, prediction, students

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Authors: Kate N. Okeke

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The ever-growing needs of man requiring satisfaction have pushed him strongly towards industrialization which has and is still leaving environmental degradation and its attendant negative impacts in its wake. It is, therefore, not surprising that the enjoyment of fundamental rights like food supply, security of lives and property, freedom of worship, health and education have been drastically affected by such degradation. In recognition of the imperative need to protect the environment and human rights, many global instruments and constitutions have recognized the right to a healthy and sustainable environment. Some environmental advocates and quite a number of literatures on the subject matter call for the recognition of environmental rights via rule of law as a vital means of achieving positive outcomes on the subject matter. However, although there are numerous countries with constitutional environmental provisions, most of them such as Nigeria, have shown poor environmental performance. A notable problem is the fact that the constitution which recognizes environmental rights appears in its other provisions to contradict its provisions by making enforceability of the environmental rights unattainable. While adopting a descriptive, analytical, comparative and explanatory study design in reviewing a successful positive environmental outcome via the rule of law, this article argues that rule of law on a balance of scale, weighs more than just environmental rights recognition and therefore should receive more attention by environmental lawyers and advocates. This is because with rule of law, members of a society are sure of getting the most out of the environmental rights existing in their legal system. Members of Niger-Delta communities of Nigeria will benefit from the environmental rights existing in Nigeria. They are exposed to environmental degradation and pollution with effects such as acidic rainfall, pollution of farmlands and clean water sources. These and many more are consequences of oil and gas exploration. It will also pave way for solving the violence between cattle herdsmen and farmers in the Middle Belt and other regions of Nigeria. Their clashes are over natural resource control. Having seen that environmental rule of law is vital to sustainable development, this paper aims to contribute to discussions on how best the vehicle of rule law can be driven towards achieving positive environmental outcomes. This will be in reliance on other enforceable provisions in the Nigerian Constitution. Other domesticated international instruments will also be considered to attain sustainable environment and development.

Keywords: environment, rule of law, constitution, sustainability

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

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Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction

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Authors: Chinedu Peter, Dashrath Singh

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Membrane computing is a computability model which abstracts its structures and functions from the biological cell. The main ingredient of membrane computing is the notion of a membrane structure, which consists of several cell-like membranes recurrently placed inside a unique skin membrane. The emergence of several variants of membrane computing gives rise to the notion of a P system. The paper presents a variant of P systems for arithmetic operations on non-negative integers based on the weak priorities for rule application. Consequently, we obtain deterministic P systems. Two membranes suffice. There are at most four objects for multiplication and five objects for division throughout the computation processes. The model is simple and has a potential for possible extension to non-negative integers and real numbers in general.

Keywords: P system, binary operation, determinism, weak rule priority

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Authors: Mette Kjerholt, Thora Grothe Thomsen, Connie Bøttcher Berthelsen, Bibi Hølge Hazelton

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Academic nursing is a relatively new phenomenon in Denmark. Leadership and management training in nursing does not prepare Danish nurse leaders to become leaders for nurses with academic background, and some leaders may feel estranged with including this kind of nursing staff in clinical settings. Currently there is a debate regarding what academic nurses can contribute with in clinical practice, and some managers express concern regarding whether this will lead to less focus on clinical practice and more focus on theoretical issues that may not seem so relevant in a busy everyday clinical setting. The paper will present the experiences of integrating three advanced nurse practitioners with Ph.D. degrees (ANP) in three different clinical departments at a regional hospital in Denmark with no prior experiences with such profiles among its staff.

Keywords: leadership, advanced nurse practitioners, clinical practice, academic nursing

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Authors: Jiun Jeon, Byung-Ju Yi

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This paper investigates modeling and shape prediction of elastic kinematic chains such as colonoscopy. 2D and 3D models of elastic kinematic chains are suggested and their behaviors are demonstrated through simulation. To corroborate the effectiveness of those models, experimental work is performed using a magnetic sensor system.

Keywords: elastic kinematic chain, shape prediction, colonoscopy, modeling

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Authors: Fujio Takata

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When governments levy taxes on labor income on the basis of a balanced budget rule, two steady states in an economy exist, of which one can cause two movement patterns, namely, indeterminacy paths and a saddle path. However, in this paper, we assume an economy with divisible labor, in which labor adjustment is made by an intensive margin. We demonstrate that there indeed exist the two paths in the economy and that there exists a critical condition dividing them. This is proved by establishing the relationship between a finite elasticity of labor with regard to real wages and the share of capital in output. Consequently, we deduce the existence of an upper limit in the share of capital in output for indeterminacy to occur. The largest possible value of that share is less than 0.5698.

Keywords: balanced budget rule, divisible labor, labor income taxation, two movement patterns

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Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction

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Authors: Khaled M. Alhawiti

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This paper investigates the future of medicine and the use of Natural language processing. The importance of having correct clinical information available online is remarkable; improving patient care at affordable costs could be achieved using automated applications to use the online clinical information. The major challenge towards the retrieval of such vital information is to have it appropriately coded. Majority of the online patient reports are not found to be coded and not accessible as its recorded in natural language text. The use of Natural Language processing provides a feasible solution by retrieving and organizing clinical information, available in text and transforming clinical data that is available for use. Systems used in NLP are rather complex to construct, as they entail considerable knowledge, however significant development has been made. Newly formed NLP systems have been tested and have established performance that is promising and considered as practical clinical applications.

Keywords: clinical information, information retrieval, natural language processing, automated applications

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Authors: Jamel Slaughter

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Father involvement across the development of a child has been linked to children’s psychological adjustment, fewer behavioral problems, and higher educational attainment. Conversely, there is much less research that highlights father involvement in relation to childhood development during early childhood period prior to preschool age (ages 1-3 years). Most research on fathers and child outcomes have been limited by its focus on the stages of adolescence, middle childhood, and infancy. This study examined the influence of father involvement, during the toddler stage, on 5th grade cognitive development, rule-breaking, and behavior outcomes measured by Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) scores. Using data from the Early Head Start Research and Evaluation (EHSRE) Study, 1996-2010: United States, a total of 3,001 children and families were identified in 17 sites (cities), representing a diverse demographic sample. An independent samples t-test was run to compare cognitive development, aggressive, and rule-breaking behavior mean scores among children who had early continuous father involvement for the first 14 – 36 months to children who did not have early continuous father involvement for the first 14 – 36 months. Multiple linear regression was conducted to determine if continuous, or non-continuous father involvement (14 month-36 months), can be used to predict outcome scores on the Child Behavior Checklist in aggressive behavior, rule-breaking behavior, and cognitive development, at 5th grade. A statistically significant mean difference in cognitive development scores were found for children who had continuous father involvement (M=1.92, SD=2.41, t (1009) =2.81, p =.005, 95% CI=.146 to .828) compared to those who did not (M=2.60, SD=3.06, t (1009) =-2.38, p=.017, 95% CI= -1.08 to -.105). There was also a statistically significant mean difference in rule-breaking behavior scores between children who had early continuous father involvement (M=1.95, SD=2.33, t (1009) = 3.69, p <.001, 95% CI= .287 to .940), compared to those that did not (M=2.87, SD=2.93, t (1009) = -3.49, p =.001, 95% CI= -1.30 to -.364). No statistically significant difference was found in aggressive behavior scores. Multiple linear regression was performed using continuous father involvement to determine which has the largest relationship to rule-breaking behavior and cognitive development based on CBCL scores. Rule-breaking behavior was found to be significant (F (2, 1008) = 8.353, p<.001), with an R2 of .016. Cognitive development was also significant (F (2, 1008) = 4.44, p=.012), with an R2 of .009. Early continuous father involvement was a significant predictor of rule-breaking behavior and cognitive development at middle childhood. Findings suggest early continuous father involvement during the first 14 – 36 months of their children’s life, may lead to lower levels of rule-breaking behaviors and thought problems at 5th grade.

Keywords: cognitive development, early continuous father involvement, middle childhood, rule-breaking behavior

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Authors: Welawat Tienpratarn, Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Rungrawin Promkul, Chetsadakon Jenpanitpong, Pajit Bunta, Suthap Jaiboon

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Supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) is an abnormally fast atrial tachycardia characterized by narrow (≤ 120 ms) and constant QRS. Adenosine was the drug of choice; the first dose was 6 mg. It can be repeated with the second and third doses of 12 mg, with greater than 90% success. The study found that patients observed at 4 hours after normal sinus rhythm was no recurrence within 24 hours. The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that influence the recurrence of SVT after adenosine in the emergency department (ED). The study was conducted retrospectively exploratory model, prognostic study at the Emergency Department (ED) in Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, a university-affiliated super tertiary care hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. The study was conducted for ten years period between 2010 and 2020. The inclusion criteria were age > 15 years, visiting the ED with SVT, and treating with adenosine. Those patients were recorded with the recurrence SVT in ED. The multivariable logistic regression model developed the predictive model and prediction score for recurrence PSVT. 264 patients met the study criteria. Of those, 24 patients (10%) had recurrence PSVT. Five independent factors were predictive of recurrence PSVT. There was age>65 years, heart rate (after adenosine) > 100 per min, structural heart disease, and dose of adenosine. The clinical risk score to predict recurrence PSVT is developed accuracy 74.41%. The score of >6 had the likelihood ratio of recurrence PSVT by 5.71 times. The clinical predictive score of > 6 was associated with recurrence PSVT in ED.

Keywords: supraventricular tachycardia, recurrance, emergency department, adenosine

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Authors: Yinglisong, Jingge Chen, Jingxuan Chen, Yan Wang, Hui Huang, Jing Zhnag, Qianqian Zhang, Zhenzhen Zhang, Ji Zhang

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Purpose: The study aims to establish a nomogram prediction model for postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) in vaginal delivery. Patients and Methods: Clinical data were retrospectively collected from vaginal delivery patients admitted to a hospital in Zhengzhou, China, from June 1, 2022 - October 31, 2022. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to filter out independent risk factors. A nomogram model was established for PPH in vaginal delivery based on the risk factors coefficient. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. To assess discrimination and calibration, receiver operator characteristics (ROC) and calibration curves were generated in the derivation and validation groups. Results: A total of 1340 cases of vaginal delivery were enrolled, with 81 (6.04%) having PPH. Logistic regression indicated that history of uterine surgery, induction of labor, duration of first labor, neonatal weight, WBC value (during the first stage of labor), and cervical lacerations were all independent risk factors of hemorrhage (P <0.05). The area-under-curve (AUC) of ROC curves of the derivation group and the validation group were 0.817 and 0.821, respectively, indicating good discrimination. Two calibration curves showed that nomogram prediction and practical results were highly consistent (P = 0.105, P = 0.113). Conclusion: The developed individualized risk prediction nomogram model can assist midwives in recognizing and diagnosing high-risk groups of PPH and initiating early warning to reduce PPH incidence.

Keywords: vaginal delivery, postpartum hemorrhage, risk factor, nomogram

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Authors: Manvar Sagar, Nikul Virpariya

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The advancement in data mining techniques plays an important role in many applications. In context of privacy and security issues, the problems caused by association rule mining technique are investigated by many research scholars. It is proved that the misuse of this technique may reveal the database owner’s sensitive and private information to others. Many researchers have put their effort to preserve privacy in Association Rule Mining. Amongst the two basic approaches for privacy preserving data mining, viz. Randomization based and Cryptography based, the later provides high level of privacy but incurs higher computational as well as communication overhead. Hence, it is necessary to explore alternative techniques that improve the over-heads. In this work, we propose an efficient, collusion-resistant cryptography based approach for distributed Association Rule mining using Shamir’s secret sharing scheme. As we show from theoretical and practical analysis, our approach is provably secure and require only one time a trusted third party. We use secret sharing for privately sharing the information and code based identification scheme to add support against malicious adversaries.

Keywords: Privacy, Privacy Preservation in Data Mining (PPDM), horizontally partitioned database, EMHS, MFI, shamir secret sharing

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Authors: Jay L. Fu

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Patients with Alzheimer's disease progressively lose their memory and thinking skills and, eventually, the ability to carry out simple daily tasks. The disease is irreversible, but early detection and treatment can slow down the disease progression. In this research, publicly available MRI data and demographic data from 373 MRI imaging sessions were utilized to build models to predict dementia. Various machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, and neural network, were developed. Data were divided into training and testing sets, where training sets were used to build the predictive model, and testing sets were used to assess the accuracy of prediction. Key risk factors were identified, and various models were compared to come forward with the best prediction model. Among these models, the random forest model appeared to be the best model with an accuracy of 90.34%. MMSE, nWBV, and gender were the three most important contributing factors to the detection of Alzheimer’s. Among all the models used, the percent in which at least 4 of the 5 models shared the same diagnosis for a testing input was 90.42%. These machine learning models allow early detection of Alzheimer’s with good accuracy, which ultimately leads to early treatment of these patients.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, clinical diagnosis, magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning prediction

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Authors: Peter David Reiss

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The concept of the psychosis prodrome has allowed for the identification of adolescent and young adult patients who have a significantly elevated risk of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders. A number of different interventions have been tested in order to prevent or delay progression of symptoms. To date, there has been no consistent meta-analytical evidence to support efficacy of antipsychotic treatment for patients in the prodromal state, and their use remains therefore inconclusive. Although antipsychotics may manage symptoms transiently, they have not been found to prevent or delay onset of psychotic disorders. Furthermore, pharmacological intervention in high-risk individuals remains controversial, because of the antipsychotic side effect profile in a population in which only about 20 to 35 percent will eventually convert to psychosis over a two-year period, with even after two years conversion rates not exceeding 30 to 40 percent. This general estimate is additionally problematic, in that it ignores the fact that there is significant variation in individual risk among clinical high-risk cases. The current lack of reliable tests for at-risk patients makes it difficult to justify individual treatment decisions. Preventive treatment should ideally be dictated by an individual’s risk while minimizing potentially harmful medication exposure. This requires more accurate predictive assessments by using valid and accessible prognostic markers. The following will compare prediction and risk modification potential of behavioral biomarkers such as disturbances of basic sense of self and emotion awareness, neurocognitive biomarkers such as attention, working and declarative memory, and neurophysiological biomarkers such as glutamatergic abnormalities and NMDA receptor dysfunction. Identification of robust biomarkers could therefore not only provide more reliable means of psychosis prediction, but also help test and develop new clinical interventions targeted at the prodromal state.

Keywords: at-risk mental state, biomarkers, glutamatergic system, NMDA receptor, psychosis prodrome, schizophrenia

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Authors: Dimitrios Triantakonstantis, Demetris Stathakis

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Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modeling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modeling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, CORINE, urban atlas, urban growth prediction

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Authors: P. S. Jagadeesh Kumar, S. Meenakshi Sundaram, Wenli Hu, Yang Yung

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In 3D video games, the dominance of production is unceasingly growing with a protruding level of affordability in terms of budget. Afterward, the automation of speech-lip synchronization technique is customarily onerous and has advanced a critical research subject in virtual reality based 3D video games. This paper presents one of these automatic tools, precisely riveted on the synchronization of the speech and the lip movement of the game characters. A robust and precise speech recognition segment that systematized with Algebraic Code Excited Linear Prediction method is developed which unconventionally delivers lip sync results. The Algebraic Code Excited Linear Prediction algorithm is constructed on that used in code-excited linear prediction, but Algebraic Code Excited Linear Prediction codebooks have an explicit algebraic structure levied upon them. This affords a quicker substitute to the software enactments of lip sync algorithms and thus advances the superiority of service factors abridged production cost.

Keywords: algebraic code excited linear prediction, speech-lip synchronization, video games, virtual reality

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Authors: Pradeep Singh, Shrish Verma

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Software fault prediction models are created by using the source code, processed metrics from the same or previous version of code and related fault data. Some company do not store and keep track of all artifacts which are required for software fault prediction. To construct fault prediction model for such company, the training data from the other projects can be one potential solution. The earlier we predict the fault the less cost it requires to correct. The training data consists of metrics data and related fault data at function/module level. This paper investigates fault predictions at early stage using the cross-project data focusing on the design metrics. In this study, empirical analysis is carried out to validate design metrics for cross project fault prediction. The machine learning techniques used for evaluation is Naïve Bayes. The design phase metrics of other projects can be used as initial guideline for the projects where no previous fault data is available. We analyze seven data sets from NASA Metrics Data Program which offer design as well as code metrics. Overall, the results of cross project is comparable to the within company data learning.

Keywords: software metrics, fault prediction, cross project, within project.

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Authors: Waseem Shahzad, Ayesha Tahir Khan, Hamid Hussain Awan

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Ant-Miner algorithm that lies under ACO algorithms is used to extract knowledge from data in the form of rules. A variant of Ant-Miner algorithm named as cAnt-MinerPB is used to generate list of rules using pittsburgh approach in order to maintain the rule interaction among the rules that are generated. In this paper, we propose a parallel Ant MinerPB in which Ant colony optimization algorithm runs parallel. In this technique, a data set is divided vertically (i-e attributes) into different subsets. These subsets are created based on the correlation among attributes using Mutual Information (MI). It generates rules in a parallel manner and then merged to form a final list of rules. The results have shown that the proposed technique achieved higher accuracy when compared with original cAnt-MinerPB and also the execution time has also reduced.

Keywords: ant colony optimization, parallel Ant-MinerPB, vertical partitioning, classification rule discovery

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Authors: Haozhe Xiang

Abstract:

With the rise of the Internet of Things era, intelligent products are gradually integrating into people's lives. Pedestrian trajectory prediction has become a key issue, which is crucial for the motion path planning of intelligent agents such as autonomous vehicles, robots, and drones. In the current technological context, deep learning technology is becoming increasingly sophisticated and gradually replacing traditional models. The pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithm combining neural networks and attention mechanisms has significantly improved prediction accuracy. Based on in-depth research on deep learning and pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithms, this article focuses on physical environment modeling and learning of historical trajectory time dependence. At the same time, social interaction between pedestrians and scene interaction between pedestrians and the environment were handled. An improved pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithm is proposed by analyzing the existing model architecture. With the help of these improvements, acceptable predicted trajectories were successfully obtained. Experiments on public datasets have demonstrated the algorithm's effectiveness and achieved acceptable results.

Keywords: deep learning, graph convolutional network, attention mechanism, LSTM

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