Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5805

Search results for: change of circumstances

5805 Modelling Consistency and Change of Social Attitudes in 7 Years of Longitudinal Data

Authors: Paul Campbell, Nicholas Biddle

Abstract:

There is a complex, endogenous relationship between individual circumstances, attitudes, and behaviour. This study uses longitudinal panel data to assess changes in social and political attitudes over a 7-year period. Attitudes are captured with the question 'what is the most important issue facing Australia today', collected at multiple time points in a longitudinal survey of 2200 Australians. Consistency of attitudes, and factors predicting change over time, are assessed. The consistency of responses has methodological implications for data collection, specifically how often such questions ought to be asked of a population. When change in attitude is observed, this study assesses the extent to which individual demographic characteristics, personality traits, and broader societal events predict change.

Keywords: attitudes, longitudinal survey analysis, personality, social values

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5804 Aporia, Daze and Arcanes during Visit to Scene of Crime: A Case History

Authors: A. S. Grewal, Sh. Dharambir, R. S. Sangwan, Vikas Dhanda

Abstract:

Every Scene of Crime is of different kind in nature. Sometimes we see such type of circumstances that we become confused to judge whether the case is of homicide or suicide. In such circumstances a doyen is asked for the option. On the basis of his esoteric knowledge he finds such clues which force the sleuth to change the under sections of Indian penal Code. Here we have examined a case by visiting Scene of Crime and found that a person was found lying dead in a room. There was only one passage which was found opened, the pistol along with the fired cartridge case, misfired cartridge were lying on the spot. Observation method, mathematical calculations, chemical examination and other aspects were considered.

Keywords: country-made pistol, misfired cartridge, fired cartridge case, blackening, nitrite

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5803 The Effect of Change Communication towards Commitment to Change through the Role of Organizational Trust

Authors: Enno R. Farahzehan, Wustari L. Mangundjaya

Abstract:

Organizational change is necessary to develop innovation and to compete with other competitors. Organizational changes were also made to defend the existence of the organization itself. Success in implementing organizational change consists of a variety of factors, one of which is individual (employee) who run changes. The employee must have the willingness and ability in carrying out the changes. Besides, employees must also have a commitment to change for creation of the successful organizational change. This study aims to execute the effect of change communication towards commitment to change through the role of organizational trust. The respondents of this study were employees who work in organizations, which have been or are currently running organizational changes. The data were collected using Change Communication, Commitment to Change, and Organizational Trust Inventory. The data were analyzed using regression. The result showed that there is an effect among change communication towards commitment to change which is higher when mediated by organizational trust. This paper will contribute to the knowledge and implications of organizational change, that shows change communication can affect commitment to change among employee if there is trust in the organization.

Keywords: change communication, commitment to change, organizational trust, organizational change

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5802 Framework for Developing Change Team to Maximize Change Initiative Success

Authors: Mohammad Z. Ansari, Lisa Brodie, Marilyn Goh

Abstract:

Change facilitators are individuals who utilize change philosophy to make a positive change to organizations. The application of change facilitators can be seen in various change models; Lewin, Lippitt, etc. The facilitators within numerous change models are considered as internal/external consultants. Whilst most of the scholarly paper considers change facilitation as a consensus attempt to improve organization, there is a lack of a framework that develops both the organization and the change facilitator creating a self-sustaining change environment. This research paper introduces the development of the framework for change Leaders, Planners, and Executers (LPE), aiming at various organizational levels (Process, Departmental, and Organisational). The LPE framework is derived by exploring interrelated characteristics between facilitator(s) and the organization through qualitative research for understanding change management techniques and facilitator(s) behavioral aspect from existing Change Management models and Organisation behavior works of literature. The introduced framework assists in highlighting and identify the most appropriate change team to successfully deliver the change initiative within any organization (s).

Keywords: change initiative, LPE framework, change facilitator(s), sustainable change

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5801 The Effect of Transformational Leadership and Change Self-Efficacy on Employees' Commitment to Change

Authors: Denvi Giovanita, Wustari L. H. Mangundjaya

Abstract:

The pace of globalization and technological development make changes inevitable to organizations. However, organizational change is not easy to implement and is prone to failure. One of the reasons of change failure is due to lack of employees’ commitment to change. There are many variables that can influence employees’ commitment to change. The influencing factors can be sourced from the organization or individuals themselves. This study focuses on the affective form of commitment to change. The objective of this study is to identify the effect of transformational leadership (organizational factor) and employees’ change self-efficacy (individual factor) on affective commitment to change. The respondents of this study were employees who work in organizations that are or have faced organizational change. The data were collected using Affective Commitment to Change, Change Self-Efficacy, and Transformational Leadership Inventory. The data were analyzed using regression. The result showed that both transformational leadership and change self-efficacy have a positive and significant impact on affective commitment to change. The implication of the study can be used for practitioners to enhance the success of organizational change, by developing transformational leadership on the leaders and change self-efficacy on the employees in order to create a high affective commitment to change.

Keywords: affective commitment to change, change self-efficacy, organizational change, transformational leadership

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5800 The Effect of Psychological Capital and Psychological Empowerment on Employees' Commitment to Change

Authors: Muthmainah Mufidah, Wustari L. H. Mangundjaya

Abstract:

Organizations nowadays have to change and adjust themselves to the changing external environment in order to survive the globalization era. However, not all the organizational change had been succeeded. Commitment to change is one important factor why the change process often failed. Even so, this commitment to change cannot be separated with the individual’s characteristic. The aim of this study is to identify the role of psychological capital and psychological empowerment as the individual’s positive characteristic on commitment to change. This research was conducted on Indonesian employees who have or are currently experiencing a change in their organization. Data was collected using Commitment to Change Inventory, Psychological Empowerment Questionnaire, and Psychological Capital Questionnaire. The results showed that both psychological capital and psychological empowerment have a positive and significant influence on commitment to change.

Keywords: commitment to change, psychological capital, psychological empowerment, organizational change

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5799 Change to the Location/Ownership and Control of Liquid Metering Skids

Authors: Mahmoud Jumah

Abstract:

This paper presents the circumstances and decision making in case of change management in any industrial processes, and the effective strategic planning ensured to provide with the on time completion of projects. In this specific case, the Front End Engineering Design and the awarded Lump Sum Turn Key Contract had provided for full control and ownership of all Liquid Metering Skids by Controlling Team. The demarcation and location were changed, and the Ownership and Control of the Liquid Metering Skids inside the boundaries of the Asset Owner were transferred from Controlling Team to Asset Owner after the award of the LSTK Contract. The requested changes resulted in Adjustment Order and the relevant scope of work is an essential part of the original Contract. The majority of equipment and materials (i.e. liquid metering skids, valves, piping, etc.) has already been in process.

Keywords: critical path, project change management, stakeholders problem solving, strategic planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 198
5798 When Change Is the Only Constant: The Impact of Change Frequency and Diversity on Change Appraisal

Authors: Danika Pieters

Abstract:

Due to changing societal and economic demands, organizational change has become increasingly prevalent in work life. While a long time change research has focused on the effects of single discrete change events on different employee outcomes such as job satisfaction and organizational commitment, a nascent research stream has begun to look into the potential cumulative effects of change in the context of continuous intense reforms. This case study of a large Belgian public organization aims to add to this growing literature by examining how the frequency and diversity of past changes impact employees’ appraisals of a newly introduced change. Twelve hundred survey results were analyzed using standard ordinary least squares regression. Results showed a correlation between high past change frequency and diversity and a negative appraisal of the new change. Implications for practitioners and future research are discussed.

Keywords: change frequency, change diversity, organizational changes, change appraisal, change evaluation

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5797 Quality as an Approach to Organizational Change and Its Role in the Reorganization of Enterprises: Case of Four Moroccan Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Authors: A. Boudiaf

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to analyze and apprehend, through four case studies, the interest of the project of the implementation of the quality management system (QMS) at four Moroccan small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This project could generate significant organizational change to improve the functioning of the organization. In fact, quality is becoming a necessity in the current business world. It is considered to be a major component in companies’ competitive strategies. It should be noted that quality management is characterized by a set of methods and techniques that can be used to solve malfunctions and reorganize companies. It is useful to point out that the choice of the adoption of the quality approach could be influenced by the circumstances of the business context, it could also be derived from its strategic vision; this means that this choice can be characterized as either a strategic aspect or a reactive aspect. This would probably have a major impact on the functioning of the QMS and also on the perception of the quality issue by company managers and their employees.

Keywords: business context, organizational change, quality, reorganization

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5796 The Role of Psychological Hardiness and Psychological Resilience Employee's Commitment to Change

Authors: Ni Made Dian Swandewi, Wustari L. Mangundjaya

Abstract:

Employees’ commitment to change are required for the success of organizational change in the company. The objective of this study is to identify the correlation between psychological hardiness and psychological resilience on commitment to change. The respondents of current research are permanent employees and employees that have worked for at least two years in a company that has been experiencing organizational change. Data was collected using Commitment to Change Inventory, Dispositional Resilience Scale (DRS), and Modified CD-RISC. The data were analyzed using regression. The results of the research show that both Psychological Hardiness and Psychological Resilience have positive and significant correlation and contribution on Commitment to Change. This research is important for companies who undergo organizational change in order plan and implement change more effectively.

Keywords: commitment to change, organizational change, psychological hardiness, psychological resilience

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5795 Effect of Climate Change Rate in Indonesia against the Shrinking Dimensions of Granules and Plasticity Index of Soils

Authors: Muhammad Rasyid Angkotasan

Abstract:

The soil is a dense granules and arrangement of the pores that are related to each other, so that the water can flow from one point which has higher energy to a point that has lower energy. The flow of water through the pores of the porous ground is urgently needed in water seepage estimates in ground water pumping problems, investigate for underground construction, as well as analyzing the stability of the construction of Weirs. Climate change resulted in long-term changes in the distribution of weather patterns are statistically throughout the period start time of decades to millions of years. In other words, changes in the average weather circumstances or a change in the distribution of weather events, on average, for example, the number of extreme weather events that increasingly a lot or a little. Climate change is limited to a particular regional or can occur in all regions of the Earth. Geographical location between two continents and two oceans and is located around the equator is klimatologis factor is the cause of flooding and drought in Indonesia. This caused Indonesia' geographical position is on a hemisphere with a tropical monsoon climate is very sensitive to climatic anomaly El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO causes drought occurrence in sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific Equator warms up to the middle part of the East (El Nino). Based on the analysis of the climate of the last 30 years show that there is a tendency, the formation of a new pattern of climate causes the onset of climate change. The impact of climate change on the occurrence of the agricultural sector is the bergesernya beginning of the dry season which led to the above-mentioned pattern planting due to drought. The impact of climate change (drought) which is very extreme in Indonesia affect the shrinkage dimensions grain land and reduced the value of a percentage of the soil Plasticity Index caused by climate change.

Keywords: climate change, soil shrinkage, plasticity index, shrinking dimensions

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5794 Renegotiating International Contract Clauses: The Case of Investment Environment Changes in Egypt

Authors: Marwa Zein

Abstract:

The long-term of the contract is one of the major features that distinguish international trade and investment contracts from other internal contracts. This is due to the nature of the contract and the huge works required to be performed from one hand or the desire of the parties to achieve stability in their transactions. However, long-term contracts might expose them to certain events and circumstances that impact the capability of the parties to execute their obligations pursuant to these contracts. During the year 2016, the Egyptian government has taken series of economic decisions which greatly impacted the economic and investment environment. Consequently, many contracts have encountered many problems in their execution due to such changes that greatly influence the performance of their obligation, a matter that necessitated the renegotiation of the conditions of these contracts on the basis of the unpredicted changes that could be listed under the Force Majeure Clause. The principle of fair and equitable treatment in investment placed on an obligation on the Egyptian government to consider the renegotiation of contract clauses based on the new conditions. This paper will discuss the idea of renegotiating international trade and investment contracts in Egypt with reference to the changes the economic environment has witnessed lately.

Keywords: change of circumstances, international contracts, investment contracts, renegotiation

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5793 An Investigation of How Pre-Service Physics Teachers Perceived the Results of Buoyancy Force

Authors: Ersin Bozkurt, Şükran Erdoğan

Abstract:

The purpose of the study is to explore how pre-service teachers perceive buoyancy force effecting an object in a liquid and identify their misconceptions. Pre-service teachers were interviewed to reveal their understandings of an object's floating, suspending and sinking in a liquid. In addition, they were asked about how an object -given its features- moved when it is provided with an external force and when it is released. The so-called circumstances were questioned in a different planet contexts. For this aim, focused group interview method was used. Six focused groups were formed and video recorded during the interval. Each focused group comprised of five pre-service teachers. It was found out pre-service teachers have common misunderstanding and misconceptions. In order to eliminate this conceptual misunderstandings, conceptual change texts were developed and further suggestions were made.

Keywords: computer simulations, conceptual change texts, physics education, students’ misconceptions in physics

Procedia PDF Downloads 396
5792 Resistance to Change as a Lever of Innovation: Case of Tangier, Tetouan and Hoceima Region, Morocco

Authors: Jihane Abdessadak, Hicham Achelhi, Kamal Reklaoui

Abstract:

For any company or organization, change must be natural and binding in order to evolve its business, protect its durability and remain competitive. "Adapt or disappear". But how often managers, leaders or employees develop astonishing ideas that could improve several aspects of the organization and the feedback is less that encouraging and people give unrealistic judgments just to escape change. In this paper, we are going to discuss what we do know about change and resistance to change and what we can do to tame this phenomenon and, above all, the main steps that can follow an idea man in the delicate and decisive implementation of innovations.

Keywords: innovation, change, resistance to change/innovation, barriers to innovation, levers of innovation

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5791 Circumstantial Loneliness and Existential Isolation in the Works of Flutura Açka

Authors: Elvira Lumi, Hans Jazxhi

Abstract:

In the works of the writer Flutura Açka, the play with these questions is acute, and in almost each of them, the act of loneliness and isolation builds in a completely involuntary way unique and frequent conceptual spaces. Because the object of study is too broad to grasp all the works, this study lays out a rapid paradox of our access to three of the novels in the line of numerous authorial works. The novel "Woman Loneliness" (2001), also marked as the first work in prose by the author, declares in the title the paradigm of what she has decided to confess. The gender segregation proclaimed in the title will be revealed step by step in the work as conventional human segregation without gender. In this novel, the analysis of the state of "loneliness" will require a contemplation beyond man, when the role of the environment and the distance from the center of the narrative base will be extremely visible in the work. The novel "Cross of Oblivion" (2004) has another form of perception of loneliness, which, unlike the one built by the characters themselves in the novel "Woman Loneliness," is imposed and obligatory to live by the circumstances. Its characters are trapped in loneliness, as loneliness that comes from impossibility, from the past, from dependence on fate, from fear of change, and from the obligation to accept it. At the heart of the novel, the plot of the novel game is dictated by the Kanun and its rules and the loneliness of the basis of life in unbroken waves towards the periphery of the event, a periphery that has very large geography and is played in today's Europe. The novel "Where are you?" (2009) has a completely different form of constructing the concept of loneliness and isolation that comes under conditions of repression and political pressure. The loneliness in this novel takes the form of the protective element from the circumstances that actually require a social inclusion; it is personal loneliness that ensures relative mental health of the characters, up to a new trap created by the circumstances, thus building life fragmentary “healthy” in the order of a mentally ill and socially ill society.

Keywords: loneliness, existential, isolation, woman, prose

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5790 Mechanisms of Cultural Change Resistance through Cultures

Authors: Horaya Mostafa Ahmed

Abstract:

All cultures are inherently predisposed to change and, at the same time, to resisting change. There are dynamic processes operating that encourage the acceptance of new ideas and things, while there are others that encourage changeless stability. Despite the dramatic changes that have taken place in all human cultures, there are cultures still steadfast and resist change. These cultures resist through some culture mechanisms like, cultural boundaries, ethnocentrism, religion, and cultural relativity. So this paper is an attempt to discover these mechanisms of cultural change resistance and to ask is cultural change always required.

Keywords: cultural change, cultural boundaries, cultural relativity, ethnocentrism, religion, resistance

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5789 Managing Multiple Change Projects in Supply Chains: A Case Study of a Moroccan Multi-Technical Services Company

Authors: Abdelouahab Errida, Bouchra Lotfi, Elalami Semma

Abstract:

In this paper, we try to address the topic of multiple change management by adopting an engineered research methodology, conducted within a Moroccan company during its implementation of several change projects that aim at improving its supply chain management performance. Firstly, we present the key concepts related to our research, namely change management, multiproject management and supply chain management. Then, we try to assess how the change management and multi-project management are applied in this company. Finally, we try to propose an approach that will help managers in dealing with multiple change projects. This approach proposes to integrate change management, project management and multi-project management for managing change projects according to three organizational levels: executive level, project portfolio level and change project level.

Keywords: change management, multi-project management, project management, change portfolio, supply chain management,

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5788 A Bundled Approach to Explaining Technological Change: The Case of E-Estonia

Authors: Andrew Adjah Sai, Portia Opoku Boadi

Abstract:

Explaining change is an abstract endeavor. Many management scholars have adopted metaphors to explain change. In this paper, we deal with the drivers of technological change. We use a historical and theoretical approach to review and elaborate on the concepts and context about a specific case. We discuss the limitations of each approach proffered and the implications as a consequence on technological change. We present plurality and multiplicity of perspectives using a socio-technical approach to explain technological change contextually on an organizational level. We show by using our model how technology absorption and diffusion can be accelerated through artefactual institutions to enable social change. The multiplicity of perspectives and plurality of our arguments creates a fine explanation of the e-Estonia case as an example.

Keywords: artefactual institutions, e-Estonia, social change, technological trajectories

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5787 Studying Roughness Effects on Flow Regimes in Offshore Pipelines

Authors: Mohammad Sadegh Narges, Zahra Ghadampour

Abstract:

Due to the specific condition, offshore pipelines are given careful consideration and care in both design and operation. Most of the offshore pipeline flows are multi-phase. Multi-phase flows construct different pattern or flow regimes (in simultaneous gas-liquid flow, flow regimes like slug flow, wave and …) under different circumstances. One of the influencing factors on the flow regime is the pipeline roughness value. So far, roughness value influences and the sensitivity of the present models to this parameter have not been taken into consideration. Therefore, roughness value influences on the flow regimes in offshore pipelines are discussed in this paper. Results showed that geometry, absolute pipeline roughness value (materials that the pipeline is made of) and flow phases prevailing the system are of the influential parameters on the flow regimes prevailing multi-phase pipelines in a way that a change in any of these parameters results in a change in flow regimes in all or part of the pipeline system.

Keywords: absolute roughness, flow regime, multi-phase flow, offshore pipelines

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5786 Climate Change as Wicked Problems towards Sustainable Development

Authors: Amin Padash, Mehran Khodaparast, Saadat Khodaparast

Abstract:

Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. Certain human activities have also been identified as significant causes of recent climate change, often referred to as “Global Warming”. The ultimate goal of this paper is to determine how climate change affects the style of life and all of our activities. The paper focuses on what the effects of humans are on climate change and how communities can achieve sustainable development and use resources in a way that is good for the ecosystem and public. We opine Climate Change is a vital issue that can be called “Wicked Problem”. This paper attempts to address this wicked problem by COMPRAM Methodology as one of the possible solutions.

Keywords: climate change, COMPRAM, human influences, sustainable development, wicked problems

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5785 Change Point Analysis in Average Ozone Layer Temperature Using Exponential Lomax Distribution

Authors: Amjad Abdullah, Amjad Yahya, Bushra Aljohani, Amani Alghamdi

Abstract:

Change point detection is an important part of data analysis. The presence of a change point refers to a significant change in the behavior of a time series. In this article, we examine the detection of multiple change points of parameters of the exponential Lomax distribution, which is broad and flexible compared with other distributions while fitting data. We used the Schwarz information criterion and binary segmentation to detect multiple change points in publicly available data on the average temperature in the ozone layer. The change points were successfully located.

Keywords: binary segmentation, change point, exponentialLomax distribution, information criterion

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5784 Mothering in Self- Defined Challenging Circumstances: A Photo-Elicitation Study of Motherhood and the Role of Social Media

Authors: Joanna Apps, Elena Markova

Abstract:

Concepts of the ideal mother and ideal mothering are disseminated through familial experiences, religious and cultural depictions of mothers and the national media. In recent years social media can also be added to the channels by which mothers and motherhood are socially constructed. However, the gulf between these depictions, -or in the case of social media ‘self-curations’ - of motherhood and lived experience has never been wider, particularly for women in disadvantaged or difficult circumstances. We report on a study of four lone mothers who were living with one or more of the following: limiting long term illness, large families, in temporary accommodation and on low incomes. The mothers were interviewed 3 times and invited to take a series of photos reflecting their lives in between each of the interviews. These photographs were used to ground the interviews in lived experience and as stimuli to discuss how the images within them compared to portrayals of mothers and motherhood that participants were exposed to on social media. The objectives of the study were to explore how mothers construct their identity in challenging and disadvantaged circumstances; to consider what their photographs of everyday life tell us about their experiences and understand the impact idealised images of motherhood have on real mothers in difficult circumstances. The results suggested that the mothers both strived to adhere to certain ideals of motherhood and acknowledged elements of these as partially or wholly impossible to achieve. The lack of depictions, in both national and social media, of motherhood that corresponded with their lived experience inhibited the mothers’ use of social media. Other themes included: lack of control, frustration and strain; and parental pride, love, humour, resilience, and hope.

Keywords: motherhood, social media, photography, poverty

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5783 Analysis of Awareness and Climate Change Impact in Energy Efficiency of Household Appliances

Authors: Meltem Ucal

Abstract:

It is obvious that with limited resources and increasing of energy consumption from day to day, increase in amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will increase risk of climate change. The objective of “Raising Awareness in Energy Efficiency of Household Appliances and Climate Change” paper is to make the connection between climate change and energy saving to be understood. First of all, research and evaluation aiming improvement of women’s behaviors of purchasing and using household appliances and also educate next generations who will be faced risks of climate change, with their mothers will be done.

Keywords: energy efficiency, climate change, wareness, household appliences, econometrics model, logit model

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5782 A Qualitative Exploration of the Strategic Management of Employee Resistance to Organisational Change

Authors: Muneeb Banday, Anukriti Dixit

Abstract:

Change in organizations is viewed as a conversion process of the organizational functioning. One of the crucial elements of this conversion process is the employee resistance to organizational change. The existing literature on change resistance has generally treated resistance as a barrier or an opportunity for successful implementation of change. However, there is little empirical research exploring how resistance to change is managed. This may be partially due to difficulty in getting information on resistance to change. The top management does not divulge such information to avoid negative evaluation whereas employees face huge risk in sharing information related to resistance. The focus of the study is to understand how the organization under study dealt with the employee resistance to change. The conversion process is a story of how the organization went from one stage to another. We used narrative approach to change. Data was collected data through company visits and interviews. The interviews were transcribed, coded, and themes were identified. We focused on the strands that left huge scope for alternative interpretations than the dominant narrative of change prevalent in the organization. The study reveals that the top management strategically uses the legitimacy of leadership, roles of key employees, and rationality of change to manage resistance.

Keywords: employee resistance, legitimacy of leadership, narrative analysis, organisational change

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5781 The Social Change Leadership Model for Administrators and Teachers Development in Northeast Thailand

Authors: D. Thawinkarn, S. Wongbutlee

Abstract:

The Social Change Leadership model is strongly aligned with administration’s mission. This research aims to examine the elements of social change leadership, build and develop leadership for social change, and evaluate effectiveness of leadership development model for social change. The research operation has 3 phases: model studies by in-depth interviews and survey research; drafting and creating model which verified by the experts; and trial of model in schools. The results showed that administrators and teachers have the elements of leadership for social change in moderate level. These elements are ranged descending from consciousness of self, common purpose, congruence, collaboration, commitment, citizenship, and controversy with civility. Model of leadership for social change is included the principles, objectives, content, process. Workshop process: Results show that the model of leadership development for social change in administrators and teachers leads to higher score in leadership evaluation prior to administering the operation.

Keywords: leadership, social change model, organization, administrators

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5780 A Mathematical Agent-Based Model to Examine Two Patterns of Language Change

Authors: Gareth Baxter

Abstract:

We use a mathematical model of language change to examine two recently observed patterns of language change: one in which most speakers change gradually, following the mean of the community change, and one in which most individuals use predominantly one variant or another, and change rapidly if they change at all. The model is based on Croft’s Utterance Selection account of language change, which views language change as an evolutionary process, in which different variants (different ‘ways of saying the same thing’) compete for usage in a population of speakers. Language change occurs when a new variant replaces an older one as the convention within a given population. The present model extends a previous simpler model to include effects related to speaker aging and interspeaker variation in behaviour. The two patterns of individual change (one more centralized and the other more polarized) were recently observed in historical language changes, and it was further observed that slower changes were more associated with the centralized pattern, while quicker changes were more polarized. Our model suggests that the two patterns of change can be explained by different balances between the preference of speakers to use one variant over another and the degree of accommodation to (propensity to adapt towards) other speakers. The correlation with the rate of change appears naturally in our model, and results from the fact that both differential weighting of variants and the degree of accommodation affect the time for change to occur, while also determining the patterns of change. This work represents part of an ongoing effort to examine phenomena in language change through the use of mathematical models. This offers another way to evaluate qualitative explanations that cannot be practically tested (or cannot be tested at all) in a real-world, large-scale speech community.

Keywords: agent based modeling, cultural evolution, language change, social behavior modeling, social influence

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5779 Risks of Climate Change on Buildings

Authors: Yahya N. Alfraidi, Abdel Halim Boussabaine

Abstract:

Climate change risk impacts are one of the most challenging aspects that faces the built environment now and the near future. The impacts of climate change on buildings are considered in four different dimensions: physical, economic, social, and management. For each of these, the risks are discussed as they arise from various effects linked to climate change, including windstorms, precipitation, temperature change, flooding, and sea-level rise. For example, building assets in cities will be exposed to extreme hot summer days and nights due to the urban heat island effect and pollution. Buildings also could be vulnerable to water, electricity, gas, etc., scarcity. Building materials, fabric and systems could also be stressed by the emerging climate risks. More impotently the building users might experience extreme internal and extern comfort conditions leading to lower productivity, wellbeing and health problems. Thus, the main aim of this paper to document the emerging risks from climate change on building assets. An in-depth discussion on the consequences of these climate change risk is provided. It is expected that the outcome of this research will be a set of risk design indicators for developing and procuring resilient building assets.

Keywords: climate change, risks of climate change, risks on building from climate change, buildings

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5778 An Analytical Survey of Construction Changes: Gaps and Opportunities

Authors: Ehsan Eshtehardian, Saeed Khodaverdi

Abstract:

This paper surveys the studies on construction change and reveals some of the potential future works. A full-scale investigation of change literature, including change definitions, types, causes and effects, and change management systems, is accomplished to explore some of the coming change trends. It is tried to pick up the critical works in each section to deduct a true timeline of construction changes. The findings show that leaping from best practice guides in late 1990s and generic process models in the early 2000s to very advanced modeling environments in the mid-2000s and the early 2010s have made gaps along with opportunities for change researchers in order to develop some more easy and applicable models. Another finding is that there is a compelling similarity between the change and risk prediction models. Therefore, integrating these two concepts, specifically from proactive management point of view, may lead to a synergy and help project teams avoid rework. Also, the findings show that exploitation of cause-effect relationship models, in order to facilitate the dispute resolutions, seems to be an interesting field for future works.

Keywords: construction change, change management systems, dispute resolutions, change literature

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5777 Analysis of Maize Yield under Climate Change, Adaptations in Varieties and Planting Date in Northeast China in Recent Thirty Years

Authors: Zhan Fengmei Yao, Hui Li, Jiahua Zhang

Abstract:

The Northeast China (NEC) was the most important agriculture areas and known as the Golden-Maize-Belt. Based on observed crop data and crop model, we design four simulating experiments and separate relative impacts and contribution under climate change, planting date shift, and varieties change as well change of varieties and planting date. Without planting date and varieties change, maize yields had no significant change trend at Hailun station located in the north of NEC, and presented significant decrease by 0.2-0.4 t/10a at two stations, which located in the middle and the south of NEC. With planting date change, yields showed a significant increase by 0.09 - 0.47 t/10a. With varieties change, maize yields had significant increase by 1.8~ 1.9 t/10a at Hailun and Huadian stations, but a non-significant and low increase by 0.2t /10a at Benxi located in the south of NEC. With change of varieties and planting date, yields presented a significant increasing by 0.53-2.0 t/10a. Their contribution to yields was -25% ~ -55% for climate change, 15% ~ 35% for planting date change, and 20% ~110% for varieties change as well 30% ~135% for varieties with planting date shift. It found that change in varieties and planting date were highest yields and were responsible for significant increases in maize yields, varieties was secondly, and planting date was thirdly. It found that adaptation in varieties and planting date greatly improved maize yields, and increased yields annual variability. The increase of contribution with planting date and varieties change in 2000s was lower than in 1990s. Yields with the varieties change and yields with planting date and varieties change all showed a decreasing trend at Huadian and Benxi since 2002 or so. It indicated that maize yields increasing trend stagnated in the middle and south of NEC, and continued in the north of NEC.

Keywords: climate change, maize yields, varieties, planting date, impacts

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5776 Review of Published Articles on Climate Change and Health in Two Francophone Newspapers: 1990-2015

Authors: Mathieu Hemono, Sophie Puig-Malet, Patrick Zylberman, Avner Bar-Hen, Rainer Sauerborn, Stefanie Schütte, Niamh Herlihi, Antoine Flahault et Anneliese Depoux

Abstract:

Since the IPCC released its first report in 1990, an increasing number of peer-reviewed publications have reported the health risks associated with climate change. Although there is a large body of evidence supporting the association between climate change and poor health outcomes, the media is inconsistent in the attention it pays to the subject matter. This study aims to analyze the modalities and rhetoric in the media concerning the impact of climate change on health in order to better understand its role in information dissemination. A review was conducted of articles published between 1990 and 2015 in the francophone newspapers Le Monde and Jeune Afrique. A detailed search strategy including specific climate and health terminology was used to search the newspapers’ online databases. 1202 articles were identified as having referenced the terms climate change and health. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to narrow the search to articles referencing the effects of climate change on human health and 160 articles were included in the final analysis. Data was extracted and categorized to create a structured database allowing for further investigation and analysis. The review indicated that although 66% of the selected newspaper articles reference scientific evidence of the impact of climate change on human health, the focus on the topic is limited major political events or is circumstances relating to public health crises. Main findings also include that among the many direct and indirect health outcomes, infectious diseases are the main health outcome highlighted in association with climate change. Lastly, the articles suggest that while developed countries have caused most of the greenhouse effect, the global south is more immediately affected. Overall, the reviewed articles reinforce the need for international cooperation in finding a solution to mitigate the effects of climate change on health. The manner in which scientific results are communicated and disseminated, impact individual and collective perceptions of the topic in the public sphere and affect political will to shape policy. The results of this analysis will underline the modalities of the rhetoric of transparency and provide the basis for a perception study of media discourses. This study is part of an interdisciplinary project called 4CHealth that confronts results of the research done on scientific, political and press literature to better understand how the knowledge on climate changes and health circulates within those different fields and whether and how it is translated to real world change.

Keywords: climate change, health, health impacts, communication, media, rhetoric, awareness, Global South, Africa

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