Search results for: casual inference

Authors: Caroline Kim

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The designation autism spectrum disorder (ASD) groups complex disorders in the development of the brain. Autism is defined essentially as a condition in which an individual lacks a theory of mind. The theory of mind, in this sense, explains the ability of an individual to attribute feelings, emotions, or thoughts to another person. An autistic patient is characteristically unable to determine what an interlocutor is feeling, or to understand the beliefs of others. However, it is possible that autism cannot plausibly characterized as the lack of theory of mind in an individual. Genes, the bran, and its interplay with environmental factors may also cause autism. A mutation in a gene may be hereditary, or instigated by diseases such as mumps. Though an autistic patient may experience abnormalities in the cerebellum and the cortical regions, these are in fact only possible theories as to a biochemical explanation behind the disability. The prevailing theory identifying autism with lacking the theory of mind is supported by behavioral observation, but this form of observation is itself determined by socially constructed standards, limiting the possibility for empirical verification. The theory of mind infers that the beliefs and emotions of people are causally based on their behavior. This paper demonstrates the fallacy of this inference, critiquing its basis in socially constructed values, and arguing instead for a biochemical approach free from the conceptual apparatus of language and social expectation.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, sociology of psychology, social construction, the theory of mind

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Authors: Kuixi Du, Thomas J. Lipscomb

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The proficiency in Mathematics skills is fundamental to success in the STEM disciplines. In the US, beginning college students who are placed in remedial/developmental Mathematics courses frequently struggle to achieve academic success. Therefore, Mathematics remediation in college has become an important concern, and providing Mathematics remediation is a prevalent way to help the students who may not be fully prepared for college-level courses. Programs vary, however, and the effectiveness of a particular remedial Mathematics program must be empirically demonstrated. The purpose of this study was to apply the sharp regression discontinuity (RD) technique to determine the effectiveness of the Jack Leaps Summer (JLS) Mathematic remediation program in supporting improved Mathematics learning outcomes among newly admitted Mathematics students in the South Dakota State University. The researchers studied the newly admitted Fall 2019 cohort of Mathematics majors (n=423). The results indicated that students whose pretest score was lower than the cut-off point and who were assigned to the JLS program experienced significantly higher scores on the post-test (Math 101 final score). Based on these results, there is evidence that the JLS program is effective in meeting its primary objective.

Keywords: causal inference, mathematisc remedial program evaluation, quasi-experimental research design, regression discontinuity design, cohort studies

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Authors: Ruchi Makani, B. V. R. Reddy

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Mobile Adhoc Networks (MANETs) are gaining popularity due to their potential of providing low-cost mobile connectivity solutions to real-world communication problems. Integrating Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) in MANETs is a tedious task by reason of its distinctive features such as dynamic topology, de-centralized authority and highly controlled/limited resource environment. IDS primarily use automated soft-computing techniques to monitor the inflow/outflow of traffic packets in a given network to detect intrusion. Use of machine learning techniques in IDS enables system to make decisions on intrusion while continuous keep learning about their dynamic environment. An appropriate IDS model is essential to be selected to expedite this application challenges. Thus, this paper focused on fuzzy-logic based machine learning IDS technique for MANETs and presented their applicability for achieving effectiveness in identifying the intrusions. Further, the selection of appropriate protocol attributes and fuzzy rules generation plays significant role for accuracy of the fuzzy-logic based IDS, have been discussed. This paper also presents the critical attributes of MANET’s routing protocol and its applicability in fuzzy logic based IDS.

Keywords: AODV, mobile adhoc networks, intrusion detection, anomaly detection, fuzzy logic, fuzzy membership function, fuzzy inference system

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Authors: Amit Kumar, Amanpreet Chander, Ashish Sahani

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This paper presents our recent work on real-time human activity detection based on the media pipe pipeline and machine learning algorithms. The proposed system can detect human activities, including running, jumping, squatting, bending to the left or right, and standing still. This is a robust solution for developing a yoga, dance, metaverse, and fitness application that checks for the correction of the pose without having any additional monitor like a personal trainer. MediaPipe solution offers an open-source cross-platform which utilizes a two-step detector-tracker ML pipeline for live detection of key landmarks on our body which can be used for motion data collection. The prediction of real-time poses uses a variety of machine learning techniques and different types of analysis. Without primarily relying on powerful desktop environments for inference, our method achieves real-time performance on the majority of contemporary mobile phones, desktops/laptops, Python, or even the web. Experimental results show that our method outperforms the existing method in terms of accuracy and real-time capability, achieving an accuracy of 99.92% on testing datasets.

Keywords: human activity detection, media pipe, machine learning, metaverse applications

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Authors: Bipasha Sen, Aditya Agarwal

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Multilingual automatic speech recognition (ASR) system is a single entity capable of transcribing multiple languages sharing a common phone space. Performance of such a system is highly dependent on the compatibility of the languages. State of the art speech recognition systems are built using sequential architectures based on recurrent neural networks (RNN) limiting the computational parallelization in training. This poses a significant challenge in terms of time taken to bootstrap and validate the compatibility of multiple languages for building a robust multilingual system. Complex architectural choices based on self-attention networks are made to improve the parallelization thereby reducing the training time. In this work, we propose Reed, a simple system based on 1D convolutions which uses very short context to improve the training time. To improve the performance of our system, we use raw time-domain speech signals directly as input. This enables the convolutional layers to learn feature representations rather than relying on handcrafted features such as MFCC. We report improvement on training and inference times by atleast a factor of 4x and 7.4x respectively with comparable WERs against standard RNN based baseline systems on SpeechOcean's multilingual low resource dataset.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, language compatibility, low resource languages, multilingual automatic speech recognition

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the PTH percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: reliability, accelerated life testing, cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, progressive type-I censoring, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Veronika Sharok

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Research relevance on psychological determinants of risky behaviors is caused by high prevalence of such behaviors, particularly among youth. Risky sexual behavior, including unprotected and casual sex, frequent change of sexual partners, drug and alcohol use lead to negative social consequences and contribute to the spread of HIV infection and other sexually transmitted diseases. Data were obtained from 302 respondents aged 15-35 which were divided into 3 empirical groups: persons prone to risky sexual behavior, drug users and alcohol users; and 3 control groups: the individuals who are not prone to risky sexual behavior, persons who do not use drugs and the respondents who do not use alcohol. For processing, we used the following methods: Qualitative method for nominative data (Chi-squared test) and quantitative methods for metric data (student's t-test, Fisher's F-test, Pearson's r correlation test). Statistical processing was performed using Statistica 6.0 software. The study identifies two groups of factors that prevent risky behaviors. Internal factors, which include the moral and value attitudes; significance of existential values: love, life, self-actualization and search for the meaning of life; understanding independence as a responsibility for the freedom and ability to get attached to someone or something up to a point when this relationship starts restricting the freedom and becomes vital; awareness of risky behaviors as dangerous for the person and for others; self-acknowledgement. External factors (prevent risky behaviors in case of absence of the internal ones): absence of risky behaviors among friends and relatives; socio-demographic characteristics (middle class, marital status); awareness about the negative consequences of risky behaviors; inaccessibility to psychoactive substances. These factors are common for proneness to each type of risky behavior, because it usually caused by the same reasons. It should be noted that if prevention of risky behavior is based only on elimination of external factors, it is not as effective as it may be if we pay more attention to internal factors. The results obtained in the study can be used to develop training programs and activities for prevention of risky behaviors, for using values preventing such behaviors and promoting healthy lifestyle.

Keywords: existential values, prevention, psychological features, risky behavior

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Authors: Sarthak Mohapatra, Ajith Babu, Shyam Prasad Ghosh

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The community of gamers has been at the crux of stigmatization and marginalization by the larger society, resulting in dignity erosion. India presents a unique context where e-sports have recently seen large-scale investments, a massive userbase, and appreciable demand for gaming as a career option. Yet the apprehension towards gaming is salient among parents and non-gamers who engage in the de-dignification of gamers, by advocating the discourse of violence promotion via video games. Even the government is relentless in banning games due to data privacy issues. Thus, the current study explores the experiences of gamers and how they navigate these de-dignifying circumstances. The study follows an exploratory qualitative approach where in-depth interviews are used as data collection tools guided by a semi-structured questionnaire. A total of 25 individuals were interviewed comprising casual gamers, professional gamers, and individuals who are indirectly impacted by gaming including parents, relatives, and friends of gamers. Thematic analysis via three-level coding is used to arrive at broad themes (categories) and their sub-themes. The results indicate that the de-dignification of gamers results from attaching stereotypes of introversion, aggression, low intelligence, and low aspirations to them. It is interesting to note that the intensity of de-dignification varies and is more salient in violent shooting games which are perceived to require low cognitive resources to master. The moral disengagement of gamers while playing violent video games becomes the basis for de-dignification. Findings reveal that circumventing de-dignification required gamers to engage in several tactics that included playing behind closed doors, consciously hiding the gamer identity, rationalizing behavior by idolizing professionals, bragging about achievements within the game, and so on. Theoretically, it contributes to dignity and social identity literature by focusing on stereotyping and stigmatization. From a policy perspective, improving legitimacy toward gaming is expected to improve the social standing of gamers and professionals. For practitioners, it is important that proper channels of promotion and communication are used to educate the non-gamers so that the stereotypes blur away.

Keywords: dignity, social identity, stereotyping, video games

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Authors: Pui Shan Wong, Kosuke Tashiro, Satoru Kuhara, Sachiyo Aburatani

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Functional genomics and gene regulation inference has readily expanded our knowledge and understanding of gene interactions with regards to expression regulation. With the advancement of transcriptome sequencing in time-series comes the ability to study the sequential changes of the transcriptome. This method presented here works to augment existing regulation networks accumulated in literature with transcriptome data gathered from time-series experiments to construct a sequential representation of transcription factor activity. This method is applied on a time-series RNA-Seq data set from Escherichia coli as it transitions from growth to stationary phase over five hours. Investigations are conducted on the various metabolic activities in gene regulation processes by taking advantage of the correlation between regulatory gene pairs to examine their activity on a dynamic network. Especially, the changes in metabolic activity during phase transition are analyzed with focus on the pagP gene as well as other associated transcription factors. The visualization of the sequential transcriptional activity is used to describe the change in metabolic pathway activity originating from the pagP transcription factor, phoP. The results show a shift from amino acid and nucleic acid metabolism, to energy metabolism during the transition to stationary phase in E. coli.

Keywords: Escherichia coli, gene regulation, network, time-series

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Authors: Arian Hosseini, Mahmudul Hasan

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To address the increasing need for efficient and accurate content moderation, we propose an efficient and lightweight deep classification ensemble structure. Our approach is based on a combination of simple visual features, designed for high-accuracy classification of violent content with low false positives. Our ensemble architecture utilizes a set of lightweight models with narrowed-down color features, and we apply it to both images and videos. We evaluated our approach using a large dataset of explosion and blast contents and compared its performance to popular deep learning models such as ResNet-50. Our evaluation results demonstrate significant improvements in prediction accuracy, while benefiting from 7.64x faster inference and lower computation cost. While our approach is tailored to explosion detection, it can be applied to other similar content moderation and violence detection use cases as well. Based on our experiments, we propose a "think small, think many" philosophy in classification scenarios. We argue that transforming a single, large, monolithic deep model into a verification-based step model ensemble of multiple small, simple, and lightweight models with narrowed-down visual features can possibly lead to predictions with higher accuracy.

Keywords: deep classification, content moderation, ensemble learning, explosion detection, video processing

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Authors: Kong Ngai Pei

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The argument scheme approach to argumentation has two components. One is to identify the recurrent patterns of inferences used in everyday discourse. The second is to devise critical questions to evaluate the inferences in these patterns. Although this approach is intuitive and contains many insightful ideas, it has been noted to be not free of problems. One is that due to its disavowing the probability calculus, it cannot give the exact strength of an inference. In order to tackle this problem, thereby paving the way to a more complete normative account of argument strength, it has been proposed, the most promising way is to combine the scheme-based approach with Bayesian networks (BNs). This paper pursues this line of thought, attempting to combine three common schemes, Appeal to Ignorance, Composition, and Division, with BNs. In the first part, it is argued that most (if not all) formulations of the critical questions corresponding to these schemes in the current argumentation literature are incomplete and not very informative. To remedy these flaws, more thorough and precise formulations of these questions are provided. In the second part, how to use graphical idioms (e.g. measurement and synthesis idioms) to translate the schemes as well as their corresponding critical questions to graphical structure of BNs, and how to define probability tables of the nodes using functions of various sorts are shown. In the final part, it is argued that many misuses of these schemes, traditionally called fallacies with the same names as the schemes, can indeed be adequately accounted for by the BN models proposed in this paper.

Keywords: appeal to ignorance, argument schemes, Bayesian networks, composition, division

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Authors: Roseline Oghogho Osaseri, Osaseri E. I.

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Lassa fever is an epidemic hemorrhagic fever caused by the Lassa virus, an extremely virulent arena virus. This highly fatal disorder kills 10% to 50% of its victims, but those who survive its early stages usually recover and acquire immunity to secondary attacks. One of the major challenges in giving proper treatment is lack of fast and accurate diagnosis of the disease due to multiplicity of symptoms associated with the disease which could be similar to other clinical conditions and makes it difficult to diagnose early. This paper proposed an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for the prediction of Lass Fever. In the design of the diagnostic system, four main attributes were considered as the input parameters and one output parameter for the system. The input parameters are Temperature on admission (TA), White Blood Count (WBC), Proteinuria (P) and Abdominal Pain (AP). Sixty-one percent of the datasets were used in training the system while fifty-nine used in testing. Experimental results from this study gave a reliable and accurate prediction of Lassa fever when compared with clinically confirmed cases. In this study, we have proposed Lassa fever diagnostic system to aid surgeons and medical healthcare practictionals in health care facilities who do not have ready access to Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) diagnosis to predict possible Lassa fever infection.

Keywords: anfis, lassa fever, medical diagnosis, soft computing

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Authors: Inês Boticas, Diana P. Ferreira, Ana Eusébio, Carlos Silva, Pedro Magalhães, Ricardo Silva, Raul Fangueiro

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Since the beginning of the 20^th century, sportswear has a major contribution to the impact of fashion on our lives. Nowadays, the embracing of sportswear fashion/looks is undoubtedly noticeable, as the modern consumer searches for high comfort and linear aesthetics for its clothes. This compromise lead to the arise of the athleisure trend. Athleisure surges as a new style area that combines both wearability and fashion sense, differentiated from the archetypal sportswear, usually associated to “gym clothes”. Additionally, the possibility to functionalize and implement new technologies have shifted and progressively empowers the connection between the concepts of physical activities practice and well-being, allowing clothing to be more interactive and responsive with its surroundings. In this study, a design inspired in retro and urban lifestyle was envisioned, engineering textile structures that can respond to external stimuli. These structures are enhanced to be responsive to heat, water vapor and humidity, integrating shape memory polymers (SMP) to improve the breathability and heat-responsive behavior of the textiles and zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnO NPs) to heighten the surface hydrophobic properties. The best results for hydrophobic exhibited superhydrophobic behavior with water contact angle (WAC) of more than 150 degrees. For the breathability and heat-response properties, SMP-coated samples showed an increase in water vapour permeability values of about 50% when compared with non SMP-coated samples. These innovative technological approaches were endorsed to design innovative clothing, in line with circular economy and eco-design principles, by assigning a substantial degree of mutability and versatility to the clothing. The development of a coat and shirt, in which different parts can be purchased separately to create multiple products, aims to combine the technicality of both the fabrics used and the making of the garments. This concept translates itself into a real constructive mechanism through the symbiosis of high-tech functionalities and the timeless design that follows the athleisure aesthetics.

Keywords: breathability, sportswear and casual clothing, sustainable design, superhydrophobicity

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Authors: Swathi M. Vanniarajan

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Reading research suggests that online contextual vocabulary comprehension while reading is an interactive and integrative process. One’s success in it depends on a variety of factors including the amount and the nature of available linguistic and nonlinguistic cues, his/her analytical and integrative skills, schema memory (content familiarity), and processing speed characterized along the continuum of controlled to automatic processing. The experiment reported here, conducted with 30 native speakers as one group and 30 nonnative speakers as another group (all graduate students), hypothesized that while working on (24) tasks which required them to comprehend an unfamiliar word in real time without backtracking, due to the differences in the nature of their respective reading processes, the nonnative subjects would be less able to construct the meanings of the unknown words by integrating the multiple but sufficient contextual cues provided in the text but the native subjects would be able to. The results indicated that there were significant inter-group as well as intra-group differences in terms of the quality of definitions given. However, when given additional time, while the nonnative speakers could significantly improve the quality of their definitions, the native speakers in general would not, suggesting that all things being equal, time is a significant factor for success in nonnative vocabulary and reading comprehension processes and that accuracy precedes automaticity in the development of nonnative reading processes also.

Keywords: reading, second language processing, vocabulary comprehension

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Najrullah Khan, Athar Ali Khan

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The Topp-Leone distribution was introduced by Topp- Leone in 1955. In this paper, an attempt has been made to fit Topp-Leone Generalized exponential (TPGE) distribution. A real survival data set is used for illustrations. Implementation is done using R and JAGS and appropriate illustrations are made. R and JAGS codes have been provided to implement censoring mechanism using both optimization and simulation tools. The main aim of this paper is to describe and illustrate the Bayesian modelling approach to the analysis of survival data. Emphasis is placed on the modeling of data and the interpretation of the results. Crucial to this is an understanding of the nature of the incomplete or 'censored' data encountered. Analytic approximation and simulation tools are covered here, but most of the emphasis is on Markov chain based Monte Carlo method including independent Metropolis algorithm, which is currently the most popular technique. For analytic approximation, among various optimization algorithms and trust region method is found to be the best. In this paper, TPGE model is also used to analyze the lifetime data in Bayesian paradigm. Results are evaluated from the above mentioned real survival data set. The analytic approximation and simulation methods are implemented using some software packages. It is clear from our findings that simulation tools provide better results as compared to those obtained by asymptotic approximation.

Keywords: Bayesian Inference, JAGS, Laplace Approximation, LaplacesDemon, posterior, R Software, simulation

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Authors: Arkadiusz Urzędowski, Dorota Wójcicka-Migasiuk, Andrzej Sachajdak, Magdalena Paśnikowska-Łukaszuk

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Due to the impact of climate changes and inevitability to reduce greenhouse gases, the need to use low-carbon and sustainable construction has increased. In this work, it is investigated how texture of the surface building materials and radiative heat transfer phenomenon in flat multilayer can be correlated. Attempts to test the surface emissivity are taken however, the trustworthiness of measurement results remains a concern since sensor size and thickness are common problems. This paper presents an experimental method to studies surface emissivity with use self constructed thermal sensors and thermal imaging technique. The surface of building materials was modified by mechanical and chemical treatment affecting the reduction of the emissivity. For testing the shaping surface of materials and mapping its three-dimensional structure, scanning profilometry were used in a laboratory. By comparing the results of laboratory tests and performed analysis of 3D computer fluid dynamics software, it can be shown that a change in the surface coverage of materials affects the heat transport by radiation between layers. Motivated by recent advancements in variational inference, this publication evaluates the potential use a dedicated data processing approach, and properly constructed temperature sensors, the influence of the surface emissivity on the phenomenon of radiation and heat transport in the entire partition can be determined.

Keywords: heat transfer, surface roughness, surface emissivity, radiation

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Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

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Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

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Authors: Endeshaw Assefa Derso, Maria Gabriella Campolo, Angela Alibrandi

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Objectives:Early childhood malnutrition can have long-term and irreversible effects on a child's health and development. This study uses the Bayesian method with spatial variation to investigate the flexible trends of metrical covariates and to identify communities at high risk of injury. Methods: Cross-sectional data on underweight are collected from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). The Bayesian geo-additive model is performed. Appropriate prior distributions were provided for scall parameters in the models, and the inference is entirely Bayesian, using Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) stimulation. Results: The results show that metrical covariates like child age, maternal body mass index (BMI), and maternal age affect a child's underweight non-linearly. Lower and higher maternal BMI seem to have a significant impact on the child’s high underweight. There was also a significant spatial heterogeneity, and based on IDW interpolation of predictive values, the western, central, and eastern parts of the country are hotspot areas. Conclusion: Socio-demographic and community- based programs development should be considered compressively in Ethiopian policy to combat childhood underweight malnutrition.

Keywords: bayesX, Ethiopia, malnutrition, MCMC, semi-parametric bayesian analysis, spatial distribution, P- splines

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Authors: E. C. Swart, E. Kunneke

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Background: Disparities in food security exist between communities and households across the country, reflecting continuing social and economic inequalities. The purpose of this study was to investigate the presence of food insecurity amongst UWC students. Method: Cross-sectional study recruited 200 students via email and cellphone from an ICS generated list of randomly selected students aged 18-25. Data collection took place during the first two weeks of term 3. Individual appointments were made with consenting participants and conducted in English by trained BSc Dietetics students. Data was analysed using SPSS. The hunger scale used by Stats SA (October 2010) was used. Dietary intake was assessed using a single 24hr recall. Results: Sixty-three percent of the students reported that they do experience some food insecurity whilst 14.5% reported to go hungry due to inadequate access to food. Coping mechanisms during periods of food insecurity include: Asking a friend, neighbour, family member (40%); Borrow (15%); Steal (none); Casual jobs (12%). Anthropometric status of students did not differ statistically significantly by food security status. A statistically significantly greater proportion of Xhosa speaking students reported inadequate money for food. Students residing in residences off campus appear to be least food secure in terms of money available and limiting food intake, whilst those residing at home are less food insecure. Similar proportions of students who receive bursaries or whose parents are paying reported going hungry whilst those who supports themselves never goes hungry. Mean nutrient intake during the previous 24 hours of students who reported inadequate resources to buy food, who eat less due to inadequate resources and who goes hungry only differed statistically significantly for Vitamin B (go hungry) and for fibre (money shortage). In general the nutrient intake is lower for those who reported to eat less and go hungry except for added sugar, vitamin A and folate (go hungry), and energy, fibre, iron, riboflavin and folate (eat less). For students who reported to have inadequate money to buy food, the mean nutrient intake was higher except for calcium and thiamin. The mean body mass index of this group of students was also higher even though the difference was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Hunger is present on campus however a single 24hr recall did not confirm statistically significant lower nutrient intakes for students who reported different levels of food insecurity.

Keywords: anthropometry, dietary intake, nutritional status, students

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Authors: Sonam Kelzang

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Background: Penetrating injuries as a result of traditional sports (Archery and Khuru) are commonly seen in Bhutan. To our knowledge, there is no study carried out looking into the data of penetrating injuries due to traditional sports. Aim: This is a retrospective analysis of cases of penetrating injuries as a result of traditional sports admitted to JDWNRH over the last 3 years to draw an inference on the pattern of injury and associated morbidity and mortality. Method: Data on penetrating injuries related to traditional sports (Archery and Khuru) were collected and reviewed over the period of 3 years. Assault cases were excluded. For each year we analysed age, sex, parts of the body affected, agent of injury and whether admission was required or not. Results: Out of the total 44 victims of penetrating injury by traditional sports (Archery and Khuru) between 2013 and 2015 (average of 15 cases of penetrating injuries per year). Eighty-five percent were male and 15% were female. Their age ranged from 4 yrs to 62 years. Sixty-one percent of the victims were in the working age group of 19-58 years; 30% of the victims were referred from various district hospitals; 38% of the victims needed admission; 42 % of the victims suffered injury to the head; and 54% of the injuries were caused by Khuru. Conclusion: Penetrating injuries due to traditional sports admitted to JDWNRH, Thimphu, remained same over the three years period despite safety regulations in place. Although there were no deaths during the last three years, morbidity still remains high.

Keywords: archery, Bhutan, Khuru, darts

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Authors: Sofia M. Karadimitriou, Kostas Triantafyllopoulos, Timothy Heaton

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Reduced dimension Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Models (DSTMs) jointly describe the spatial and temporal evolution of a function observed subject to noise. A basic state space model is adopted for the discrete temporal variation, while a continuous autoregressive structure describes the continuous spatial evolution. Application of such a DSTM relies upon the pre-selection of a suitable reduced set of basic functions and this can present a challenge in practice. In this talk, we propose an online estimation method for high dimensional spatio-temporal data based upon DSTM and we attempt to resolve this issue by allowing the basis to adapt to the observed data. Specifically, we present a wavelet decomposition in order to obtain a parsimonious approximation of the spatial continuous process. This parsimony can be achieved by placing a Laplace prior distribution on the wavelet coefficients. The aim of using the Laplace prior, is to filter wavelet coefficients with low contribution, and thus achieve the dimension reduction with significant computation savings. We then propose a Hierarchical Bayesian State Space model, for the estimation of which we offer an appropriate particle filter algorithm. The proposed methodology is illustrated using real environmental data.

Keywords: multidimensional Laplace prior, particle filtering, spatio-temporal modelling, wavelets

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Authors: Ms Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis as a tool for the causal inference in the observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned, thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. For the binary outcome, the effect of treatment on the outcome can be estimated by odds ratios, relative risks, and risk differences. However, using the different PS methods may give you a different estimation of the treatment effect on the outcome. Several methods of PS analyses have been used mainly, include matching, inverse probability of weighting, stratification, and covariate adjusted on PS. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables (exposure, covariates), the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect (ATE) utilizing the stratification of PS method. Therefore, we are trying to avoid choosing arbitrary cut-points, instead, we continuously discretize the PS and accumulate information across all cut-points for inferences. We will use Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate ATE, focusing on two PS methods, stratification and covariate adjusted on PS. We will then show how this can be observed based on the analyses of the data from a case-control study of breast cancer, the Polish Women’s Health Study.

Keywords: average treatment effect, propensity score, stratification, covariate adjusted, monte Calro estimation, breast cancer, case_control study

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Authors: Isha Saxena, Behzad Kazemtabrizi, Matthias C. M. Troffaes, Christopher Crabtree

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The calculations done at the beginning of the life of a wind farm are rarely reliable, which makes it important to conduct research and study the failure and repair rates of the wind turbines under various conditions. This miscalculation happens because the current models make a simplifying assumption that the failure/repair rate remains constant over time. This means that the reliability function is exponential in nature. This research aims to create a more accurate model using sensory data and a data-driven approach. The data cleaning and data processing is done by comparing the Power Curve data of the wind turbines with SCADA data. This is then converted to times to repair and times to failure timeseries data. Several different mathematical functions are fitted to the times to failure and times to repair data of the wind turbine components using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Posterior expectation method for Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Initial results indicate that two parameter Weibull function and exponential function produce almost identical results. Further analysis is being done using the complex system analysis considering the failures of each electrical and mechanical component of the wind turbine. The aim of this project is to perform a more accurate reliability analysis that can be helpful for the engineers to schedule maintenance and repairs to decrease the downtime of the turbine.

Keywords: reliability, bayesian parameter inference, maximum likelihood estimation, weibull function, SCADA data

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Authors: Betsy H. Edwards

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Background: Public Health England recognises unprotected sex and consequent transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) as significant problems within student populations. Government surveys show that 50% of sexually-active young adults engage in unprotected sex with new partners, with 10% never using condoms. The recent Channel Four mini-series ‘It’s a Sin’ dramatises the 1980s AIDS epidemic and has been praised for its educational value and for promoting safe sexual practices to its viewers. This mixed-methods questionnaire study aims to investigate whether the series can change attitudes towards safe sex in student populations, can promote the use of condoms in student populations, and whether television, in general, is a useful tool for promoting health education. Methods: A questionnaire, created on Microsoft Forms, was distributed to students at the University of Birmingham via Facebook groups between September 2021 and May 2022. To consent, participants had to be aged 18 or over, a student at the university, have seen the entire series of ‘It’s a Sin’, and read the study information. Data was confidentially stored within the University’s secured OneDrive in accordance with the study’s approved ethics application. Quantitative questions measured participants’ attitudes and behaviours using Likert scales. Qualitative data was analysed using thematic analysis. Quantitative Results: 78 students completed the questionnaire. 43 participants (55%) felt that the series ‘It’s a Sin’ promoted safe sex. 74 participants (96%) and 31 participants (39%) said they were ‘very likely’ or ‘likely’ to use condoms with a casual partner during penetrative sex and oral sex respectively. 27 participants (35%) felt that watching ‘It’s a Sin’ made them more likely to use condoms; of these 27 participants, all were ‘very likely’ or ‘likely’ to use condoms during penetrative sex, and 9 were ‘very likely’ or ‘likely’ to during oral sex. 49 participants (63%) and 53 participants (68%) felt that television is a good way to provide health education and to promote healthy behaviours respectively. Qualitative Results: 56 participants (72%) gave reasons why the series had been associated with an increased uptake in HIV testing. Three themes emerged: increased education and attention, decreased stigmatisation, and relatability of characters on screen. Conclusions: This study suggests that the series ‘It’s a Sin’ can influence attitudes towards and the uptake of safe sexual practices. It would be useful for further research - using larger, randomised samples - to explore impacts upon populations lesser-educated about sexual health, who potentially have more to gain from watching series such as ‘It’s a Sin’.

Keywords: GUM, It's a sin, media, sexual health, students, television, tv

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Authors: Krishna Mohan Bathula, Fatou Bintou Loucoubar, FNU Kaleemunnisa, Christelle Scharff, Mark Anthony De Castro

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Voice recognition algorithms such as automatic speech recognition and text-to-speech systems with African languages can play an important role in bridging the digital divide of Artificial Intelligence in Africa, contributing to the establishment of a fully inclusive information society. This paper proposes a Deep Learning model that can classify the user responses as inputs for an interactive voice response system. A dataset with Wolof language words ‘yes’ and ‘no’ is collected as audio recordings. A two stage Data Augmentation approach is adopted for enhancing the dataset size required by the deep neural network. Data preprocessing and feature engineering with Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients are implemented. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have proven to be very powerful in image classification and are promising for audio processing when sounds are transformed into spectra. For performing voice response classification, the recordings are transformed into sound frequency feature spectra and then applied image classification methodology using a deep CNN model. The inference model of this trained and reusable Wolof voice response recognition system can be integrated with many applications associated with both web and mobile platforms.

Keywords: automatic speech recognition, interactive voice response, voice response recognition, wolof word classification

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Authors: Ming-Yang Guo, Cheng-Xian Wu, Wei-Xiang Chen, Chun-Yuan Lin, Yen-Jen Lin, Ann-Shyn Chiang

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With more and more Drosophila Driver and Neuron images, it is an important work to find the similarity relationships among them as the functional inference. There is a general problem that how to find a Drosophila Driver image, which can cover a set of Drosophila Driver/Neuron images. In order to solve this problem, the intersection/union region for a set of images should be computed at first, then a comparison work is used to calculate the similarities between the region and other images. In this paper, three encoding schemes, namely Integer, Boolean, Decimal, are proposed to encode each image as a one-dimensional structure. Then, the intersection/union region from these images can be computed by using the compare operations, Boolean operators and lookup table method. Finally, the comparison work is done as the union region computation, and the similarity score can be calculated by the definition of Tanimoto coefficient. The above methods for the region computation are also implemented in the multi-core CPUs environment with the OpenMP. From the experimental results, in the encoding phase, the performance by the Boolean scheme is the best than that by others; in the region computation phase, the performance by Decimal is the best when the number of images is large. The speedup ratio can achieve 12 based on 16 CPUs. This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology under the grant MOST 106-2221-E-182-070.

Keywords: Drosophila driver image, Drosophila neuron images, intersection/union computation, parallel processing, OpenMP

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Authors: Aishwarya Rai

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This study explores the transformative influence of generative AI on startups, businesses, and industries. We will explore how large businesses can benefit in the area of customer operations, where AI-powered chatbots can improve self-service and agent effectiveness, greatly increasing efficiency. In marketing and sales, generative AI could transform businesses by automating content development, data utilization, and personalization, resulting in a substantial increase in marketing and sales productivity. In software engineering-focused startups, generative AI can streamline activities, significantly impacting coding processes and work experiences. It can be extremely useful in product R&D for market analysis, virtual design, simulations, and test preparation, altering old workflows and increasing efficiency. Zooming into the retail and CPG industry, industry findings suggest a 1-2% increase in annual revenues, equating to $400 billion to $660 billion. By automating customer service, marketing, sales, and supply chain management, generative AI can streamline operations, optimizing personalized offerings and presenting itself as a disruptive force. While celebrating economic potential, we acknowledge challenges like external inference and adversarial attacks. Human involvement remains crucial for quality control and security in the era of generative AI-driven transformative innovation. This talk provides a comprehensive exploration of generative AI's pivotal role in reshaping businesses, recognizing its strategic impact on customer interactions, productivity, and operational efficiency.

Keywords: generative AI, digital transformation, LLM, artificial intelligence, startups, businesses

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Authors: Chih-Chieh Yang, Chung-Neng Huang

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In power system, how to improve the fault diagnosis technology of transmission line has always been the primary goal of power grid operators. In recent years, due to the rise of green energy, the addition of all kinds of distributed power also has an impact on the stability of the power system. Because the smart meters are with the function of data recording and bidirectional transmission, the adaptive Fuzzy Neural inference system, ANFIS, as well as the artificial intelligence that has the characteristics of learning and estimation in artificial intelligence. For transmission network, in order to avoid misjudgment of the fault type and location due to the input of these unstable power sources, combined with the above advantages of smart meter and ANFIS, a method for identifying fault types and location of faults is proposed in this study. In ANFIS training, the bus voltage and current information collected by smart meters can be trained through the ANFIS tool in MATLAB to generate fault codes to identify different types of faults and the location of faults. In addition, due to the uncertainty of distributed generation, a wind power system is added to the transmission network to verify the diagnosis correctness of the study. Simulation results show that the method proposed in this study can correctly identify the fault type and location of fault with more efficiency, and can deal with the interference caused by the addition of unstable power sources.

Keywords: ANFIS, fault diagnosis, power system, smart meter

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Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

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In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 268