Search results for: behavior model simulation

Authors: Jamuna Konda, Umamaheswara Reddy Karumuri, Sriramya Muthugi, Varun Pishati, Ravi Shakya,

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This paper investigates the challenges involved in mathematical modeling of plant simulation models ensuring the performance of the plant models much closer to the real time physical model. The paper includes the analysis performed and investigation on different methods of modeling, design and development for plant model. Issues which impact the design time, model accuracy as real time model, tool dependence are analyzed. The real time hardware plant would be a combination of multiple physical models. It is more challenging to test the complete system with all possible test scenarios. There are possibilities of failure or damage of the system due to any unwanted test execution on real time.

Keywords: model based design (MBD), MATLAB, Simulink, stateflow, plant model, real time model, real-time workshop (RTW), target language compiler (TLC)

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Authors: Titanilla Komenda

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Human-machine-collaboration defines a direct interaction between humans and machines to fulfil specific tasks. Those so-called collaborative machines are used without fencing and interact with humans in predefined workspaces. Even though, human-machine-collaboration enables a flexible adaption to variable degrees of freedom, industrial applications are rarely found. The reasons for this are not technical progress but rather limitations in planning processes ensuring safety for operators. Until now, humans and machines were mainly considered separately in the planning process, focusing on ergonomics and system performance respectively. Within human-machine-collaboration, those aspects must not be seen in isolation from each other but rather need to be analysed in interaction. Furthermore, a simulation model is needed that can validate the system performance and ensure the safety for the operator at any given time. Following on from this, a holistic simulation model is presented, enabling a simulative representation of collaborative tasks – including both, humans and machines. The presented model does not only include a geometry and a motion model of interacting humans and machines but also a numerical behaviour model of humans as well as a Boole’s probabilistic sensor model. With this, error scenarios can be simulated by validating system behaviour in unplanned situations. As these models can be defined on the basis of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis as well as probabilities of errors, the implementation in a collaborative model is discussed and evaluated regarding limitations and simulation times. The functionality of the model is shown on industrial applications by comparing simulation results with video data. The analysis shows the impact of considering human factors in the planning process in contrast to only meeting system performance. In this sense, an optimisation function is presented that meets the trade-off between human and machine factors and aids in a successful and safe realisation of collaborative scenarios.

Keywords: human-machine-system, human-robot-collaboration, safety, simulation

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Authors: Phinyo Mueangmeesap

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This paper describes about pure sinusoidal inverter simulation and implementation from high voltage DC (156 Vdc). This simulation is to study and improve the efficiency of the inverter. By reducing the loss of power from boost converter in current inverter. The simulation is done by using the H-bridge circuit with pulse width modulate (PWM) signal and low-pass filter circuit. To convert the DC into AC. This paper used the PSCad for simulation. The result of simulation can be used to create prototype inverter by converting 156 Vdc to 110Vac. The inverter gives the output signal similar to the output from a simulation.

Keywords: inverter simulation, PWM signal, single-phase inverter, sinusoidal inverter

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Authors: Shuyi Wu, Chuang Li, Quanshui Zheng, Luping Xu

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Stretching and snipping DNA molecule by microfluidic has important application value in gene analysis by lab on a chip. Movement, deformation and fragmenting of DNA in microfluidic are typical fluid-solid coupling problems. An efficient and common simulation system for researching the movement, deformation and fragmenting of DNA by microfluidic has not been well developed. In our study, Brownian dynamics-finite element method (BD-FEM) is used to simulate the dynamic process of stretching and fragmenting DNA by contraction flow. The shape and parameters of micro-channels are changed to optimize the stretching and fragmenting properties of DNA. Our results indicate that strain rate, resulting from contraction microchannel, is the main control parameter for stretching and fragmenting DNA. There is good consistency between the simulation data and previous experimental result about the single DNA molecule behavior and averaged fragmenting properties in this study. BD-FEM method is an efficient calculating tool to research stretching and fragmenting behavior of single DNA molecule and optimize microfluidic devices for manipulating, stretching and fragmenting DNA.

Keywords: fragmenting, DNA, microfluidic, optimize.

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Authors: Foad Vashahi, Shahnaz Rezaei, Jeekeun Lee

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Large Eddy Simulation (LES) was performed on a dual counter rotating axial swirler in a confined rectangular configuration. Grids were constructed based on a primary Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulation and then were refined based on the Kolmogorov length scale. Water as cold flow condition was applied and results were compared via Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) experimental results. The focus was to investigate the flow behavior within the region before the flare and very close to the exit of the swirler. This region contributes to a highly unsteady flow behavior and requires great attention to enhancing the flame stability in gas turbine combustor and swirl burners. The PVC formation within the central core flow is strongly related to the peaks of pressure or axial velocity spectrum and up to two distinct peaks at the swirler mouth could be observed. Here, spectra analysis in iso-thermal condition inside the swirler where the inner swirler dominates the flow, showed a higher potential of instabilities with three to four distinct peaks where moving forward to the exit of swirler the number of peaks is decreased. In addition to this, the central axis corresponds to no peaks of instabilities while further away in the radial direction, several peaks exist.

Keywords: axial counter rotating swirler, large eddy simulation (LES), precessing vortex core (PVC), power spectral density (PSD)

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Authors: Abdmohammad Mousavi, Mohsen Shams, Mehdi Akbartabar Toori, Ali Mousavizadeh, Mohammad Ali Morowatisharifabad

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The effectiveness of Transtheoretical Model (TTM) on nutritional behavior change and lose weight has been subject to questions by some studies. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of nutritional behavior change and lose weight interventions based on TTM in obese and overweight women. This experimental study that was a 8 months trial nutritional behavior change and weight loss program based on TTM with two conditions and pre–post intervention measurements weight mean. 299 obese and overweight 20-44 years old women were selected from two health centers include training (142) and control (157) groups in Yasuj, a city in south west of Iran. Data were analyzed using paired T-test and One–Way ANOVA tests. In baseline, adherence with nutritional healthy behavior in training group(9.4%) compare with control(38.8%) were different significantly(p=.003), weight mean of training(Mean=78.02 kg, SD=11.67) compared with control group(Mean=77.23 kg, SD=10.25) were not (P=.66). In post test, adherence with nutritional healthy behavior in training group(70.1%) compare with control (37.4%) were different significantly (p=.000), weight mean of training (Mean=74.65 kg, SD=10.93, p=.000) compare with pre test were different significantly and control (Mean=77.43 kg, SD=10.43, p=.411) were not. The training group has lost 3.37 kg weight, whereas the control group has increased .2 kg weight. These results supported the applicability of the TTM for women weight lose intervention.

Keywords: nutritional behavior, Transtheoretical Model, weight lose, women

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Authors: Asma Poursoroush

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Solid-supported lipid bilayers are often used as a simple model for studies of biological membranes. The presence of a solid substrate that interacts attractively with lipid head-groups is expected to affect the phase behavior of the supported bilayer. Molecular dynamics simulations of a coarse-grained model are thus performed to investigate the phase behavior of supported one-component lipid bilayer membranes. Our results show that the attraction of the lipid head groups to the substrate leads to a phase behavior that is different from that of a free standing lipid bilayer. In particular, we found that the phase behaviors of the two leaflets are decoupled in the presence of a substrate. The proximal leaflet undergoes a clear gel-to-fluid phase transition at a temperature lower than that of a free standing bilayer, and that decreases with increasing strength of the substrate-lipid attraction. The distal leaflet, however, undergoes a change from a homogeneous liquid phase at high temperatures to a heterogeneous state consisting of small liquid and gel domains, with the average size of the gel domains that increases with decreasing temperature. While the chain order parameter of the proximal leaflet clearly shows a gel-fluid phase transition, the chain order parameter of the distal leaflet does not exhibit a clear phase transition. The decoupling in the phase behavior of the two leaflets is due to a non-symmteric lipid distribution in the two leaflets resulting from the presence of the substrate.

Keywords: membrane, substrate, molecular dynamics, simulation

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Authors: Fahim Kahlouche, Alaoua Bouaicha, Sihem Chaîbeddra, Sid-Ali Rafa, Abdelhamid Benouali

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A designing of a structure requires its realization on rough or sloping ground. Besides the problem of the stability of the landslide, the behavior of the foundations that are bearing the structure is influenced by the destabilizing effect of the ground’s slope. This article focuses on the analysis of the slope stability exposed to loading by introducing the different factors influencing the slope’s behavior on the one hand, and on the influence of this slope on the foundation’s behavior on the other hand. This study is about the elastoplastic modelization using FLAC 2D. This software is based on the finite difference method, which is one of the older methods of numeric resolution of differential equations system with initial and boundary conditions. It was developed for the geotechnical simulation calculation. The aim of this simulation is to demonstrate the notable effect of shear modulus « G », cohesion « C », inclination angle (edge) « β », and distance between the foundation and the head of the slope on the stability of the slope as well as the stability of the foundation. In our simulation, the slope is constituted by homogenous ground. The foundation is considered as rigid/hard; therefore, the loading is made by the application of the vertical strengths on the nodes which represent the contact between the foundation and the ground. 

Keywords: slope, shallow foundation, numeric method, FLAC 2D

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Authors: M. R. Dahmardeh Ghaleno, M. Nohtani, S. Khaledi

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Flood simulation and prediction is one of the most active research areas in surface water management. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous, and physical model with daily or hourly time step that explains precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave equation which depends on the slope, velocity, and flow route characteristics. Golestan Dam Basin is located in Golestan province in Iran and it is passing over coordinates 55° 16´ 50" to 56° 4´ 25" E and 37° 19´ 39" to 37° 49´ 28"N. The area of the catchment is about 224 km², and elevations in the catchment range from 414 to 2856 m at the outlet, with average slope of 29.78%. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 59% and 80.18%, respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, stream flow, flood prediction

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Authors: David Nieto Simavilla, Wilco M. H. Verbeeten

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The viscoelastic behavior of polymeric flows under isothermal conditions has been extensively researched. However, most of the processing of polymeric materials occurs under non-isothermal conditions and understanding the linkage between the thermo-physical properties and the process state variables remains a challenge. Furthermore, the cost and energy required to manufacture, recycle and dispose polymers is strongly affected by the thermo-physical properties and their dependence on state variables such as temperature and stress. Experiments show that thermal conductivity in flowing polymers is anisotropic (i.e. direction dependent). This phenomenon has been previously omitted in the study and simulation of industrially relevant flows. Our work combines experimental evidence of a universal relationship between thermal conductivity and stress tensors (i.e. the stress-thermal rule) with differential constitutive equations for the viscoelastic behavior of polymers to provide predictions for the anisotropy in thermal conductivity in uniaxial, planar, equibiaxial and shear flow in commercial polymers. A particular focus is placed on the eXtended Pom-Pom model which is able to capture the non-linear behavior in both shear and elongation flows. The predictions provided by this approach are amenable to implementation in finite elements packages, since viscoelastic and thermal behavior can be described by a single equation. Our results include predictions for flow-induced anisotropy in thermal conductivity for low and high density polyethylene as well as confirmation of our method through comparison with a number of thermoplastic systems for which measurements of anisotropy in thermal conductivity are available. Remarkably, this approach allows for universal predictions of anisotropy in thermal conductivity that can be used in simulations of complex flows in which only the most fundamental rheological behavior of the material has been previously characterized (i.e. there is no need for additional adjusting parameters other than those in the constitutive model). Accounting for polymers anisotropy in thermal conductivity in industrially relevant flows benefits the optimization of manufacturing processes as well as the mechanical and thermal performance of finalized plastic products during use.

Keywords: anisotropy, differential constitutive models, flow simulations in polymers, thermal conductivity

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Authors: Mohammadreza Nezamirad, Azadeh Yazdi, Sepideh Amirahmadian, Nasim Sabetpour, Amirmasoud Hamedi

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In this study, the Reynolds-Stress-Navier-Stokes framework is utilized to investigate the flow inside the diesel injector nozzle. The flow is assumed to be multiphase as the formation of vapor by pressure drop is visualized. For pressure and velocity linkage, the coupled algorithm is used. Since the cavitation phenomenon inherently is unsteady, the quasi-steady approach is utilized for saving time and resources in the current study. Schnerr-Sauer cavitation model is used, which was capable of predicting flow behavior both at the initial and final steps of the cavitation process. Two different turbulent models were used in this study to clarify which one is more capable in predicting cavitation inception and super-cavitation. It was found that K-ε was more compatible with the Shnerr-Sauer cavitation model; therefore, the mentioned model is used for the rest of this study.

Keywords: CFD, RANS, cavitation, fuel, injector

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Authors: Gracia V. Navarro, Maria V. Gonzalez, Carlos G. Reed

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The eudaimonic perspective in philosophy and psychology suggests that a good life is closely related to developing oneself in order to contribute to the well-being and happiness of other people and of the world as a whole. Educational psychology can help to achieve this through the design and validation of educative models. Since 2004, the University of Concepcion and other Chilean universities apply an educative model to train socially responsible professionals, people that in the exercise of their profession contribute to generate equity for the development and assess the impacts of their decisions, opting for those that serve the common good. The main aim is to identify if a relationship exists between achieved learning, attitudes toward social responsibility, self-attribution of socially responsible behavior, value type, professional behavior observed and, participation in a specific model to train socially responsible (SR) professionals. The Achieved Learning and Attitudes Toward Social Responsibility Questionnaire, interview with employers and Values Questionnaire and Self-attribution of SR Behavior Questionnaire is applied to 394 students and graduates, divided into experimental and control groups (trained and not trained under the educative model), in order to identify the professional behavior of the graduates. The results show that students and graduates perceive cognitive, affective and behavioral learning, with significant differences in attitudes toward social responsibility and self-attribution of SR behavior, between experimental and control. There are also differences in employers' perceptions about the professional practice of those who were trained under the model and those who were not. It is concluded that the educative model has an impact on the learning of social responsibility and educates for a full life. It is also concluded that it is necessary to identify mediating variables of the model effect.

Keywords: educative model, good life, professional social responsibility, values

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Authors: Jiří Barta

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The paper deals with simulation programs of spread of harmful substances. Air pollution has a direct impact on the quality of human life and environmental protection is currently a very hot topic. Therefore, the paper focuses on the simulation of release of harmful substances. The first part of article deals with perspectives and possibilities of implementation outputs of simulations programs into the system which is education and of practical training of the management staff during emergency events in the frame of critical infrastructure. The last part shows the practical testing and evaluation of simulation programs. Of the tested simulations software been selected Symos97. The tool offers advanced features for setting leakage. Gradually allows the user to model the terrain, location, and method of escape of harmful substances.

Keywords: Computer Simulation, Symos97, Spread, Simulation Software, Harmful Substances

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Authors: Mohamed Belhorma, Aboubakar S. Bouchikhi, Belkacem Bounab

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This paper addresses modeling a Double A-Arm suspension, a three-dimensional nonlinear model has been developed using the multibody systems formalism. Dynamical study of the different components responses was done, particularly for the wheel assembly. To validate those results, the system was constructed and simulated by RecurDyn, a professional multibody dynamics simulation software. The model has been used as the Objectif function in an optimization algorithm for ride quality improvement.

Keywords: double A-Arm suspension, multibody systems, ride quality optimization, dynamic simulation

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Authors: El Hansali Hasnaa, Bennani Mohammed

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Hexapod legged robot’s missions, particularly in irregular and dangerous areas, require high stability and high precision. In this paper, we consider the rectangular architecture body of legged robots with six legs distributed symmetrically along two sides, each leg contains three degrees of freedom for greater mobility. The aim of this work is planning tripod gait trajectory, based on the computing of the kinematic model to determine the joint variables in the lifting and the propelling phases. For this, appropriate coordinate frames are attached to the body and legs in order to obtain clear representation and efficient generation of the system equations. A simulation in MATLAB software platform is developed to confirm the kinematic model and various trajectories to the tripod gait adopted by the hexapod robot in its locomotion.

Keywords: hexapod legged robot, inverse kinematic model, simulation in MATLAB, tripod gait

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Authors: Zhou Jianhong

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Model averaging is a desirable approach to deal with model uncertainty, which, however, has rarely been explored for Poisson regression. In this paper, we propose a model averaging procedure based on an unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance for the Poisson regression. Simulation study shows that the proposed model average estimator outperforms some other commonly used model selection and model average estimators in some situations. Our proposed methods are further applied to a real data example and the advantage of this method is demonstrated again.

Keywords: model averaging, poission regression, Kullback-Leibler distance, statistics

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Authors: Rassoli Aisa, Abrishami Movahhed Arezu, Faturaee Nasser, Seddighi Amir Saeed, Shafigh Mohammad

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Cardiovascular diseases are one of the most common causes of mortality in developed countries. Coronary artery abnormalities and carotid artery stenosis, also known as silent death, are among these diseases. One of the treatment methods for these diseases is to create a deviatory pathway to conduct blood into the heart through a bypass surgery. The saphenous vein is usually used in this surgery to create the deviatory pathway. Unfortunately, a re-surgery will be necessary after some years due to ignoring the disagreement of mechanical properties of graft tissue and/or applied prostheses with those of host tissue. The objective of the present study is to clarify the viscoelastic behavior of human saphenous tissue. The stress relaxation tests in circumferential and longitudinal direction were done in this vein by exerting 20% and 50% strains. Considering the stress relaxation curves obtained from stress relaxation tests and the coefficients of the standard solid model, it was demonstrated that the saphenous vein has a non-linear viscoelastic behavior. Thereafter, the fitting with Fung’s quasilinear viscoelastic (QLV) model was performed based on stress relaxation time curves. Finally, the coefficients of Fung’s QLV model, which models the behavior of saphenous tissue very well, were presented.

Keywords: Viscoelastic behavior, stress relaxation test, uniaxial tensile test, Fung’s quasilinear viscoelastic (QLV) model, strain rate

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Authors: Jae-Yeong Choi, Gyu-Mok Jeon, Jong-Chun Park, Yong-Jin Cho, Seok-Tae Yoon

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When air flow is injected into water, bubbles are formed in various types inside the water pool along with the air flow rate. The bubbles are floated in equilibrium with forces such as buoyancy, surface tension and shear force. Single bubble generated at low flow rate maintains shape, but bubbles with high flow rate break up to make mixing and turbulence. In addition to this phenomenon, as the hot air bubbles are injected into the water, heat affects the interface of phases. Therefore, the main scope of the present work reveals how to proceed heat transfer between water and hot air bubbles injected into water. In the present study, a series of CFD simulation for the heat transfer of hot bubbles injected through a nozzle near the bottom in a cylindrical water column are performed using a commercial CFD software, STAR-CCM+. The governing equations for incompressible and viscous flow are the continuous and the RaNS (Reynolds- averaged Navier-Stokes) equations and discretized by the FVM (Finite Volume Method) manner. For solving multi-phase flow, the Eulerian multiphase model is employed and the interface is defined by VOF (Volume-of-Fluid) technique. As a turbulence model, the SST k-w model considering the buoyancy effects is introduced. For spatial differencing the 3th-order MUSCL scheme is adopted and the 2nd-order implicit scheme for time integration. As the results, the dynamic behavior of the rising hot bubbles with the flow rate injected and regarding heat transfer mechanism are discussed based on the simulation results.

Keywords: heat transfer, hot bubble injection, eulerian multiphase model, flow rate, CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics)

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Authors: Zdeněk Veselý, Milan Honner, Jiří Mach

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The aim of the performed work is to establish the 2D and 3D model of direct unsteady task of sample heat treatment by moving source employing computer model on the basis of finite element method. The complex boundary condition on heat loaded sample surface is the essential feature of the task. Computer model describes heat treatment of the sample during heat source movement over the sample surface. It is started from the 2D task of sample cross section as a basic model. Possibilities of extension from 2D to 3D task are discussed. The effect of the addition of third model dimension on the temperature distribution in the sample is showed. Comparison of various model parameters on the sample temperatures is observed. Influence of heat source motion on the depth of material heat treatment is shown for several velocities of the movement. Presented computer model is prepared for the utilization in laser treatment of machine parts.

Keywords: computer simulation, unsteady model, heat treatment, complex boundary condition, moving heat source

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Authors: Adil Balla Elkrail

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Visual MODFLOW computer codes were selected to simulate head distribution, calculate the groundwater budgets of the area, and evaluate the effect of external stresses on the groundwater head and to demonstrate how the groundwater model can be used as a comparative technique in order to optimize utilization of the groundwater resource. A conceptual model of the study area, aquifer parameters, boundary, and initial conditions were used to simulate the flow model. The trial-and-error technique was used to calibrate the model. The most important criteria used to check the calibrated model were Root Mean Square error (RMS), Mean Absolute error (AM), Normalized Root Mean Square error (NRMS) and mass balance. The maps of the simulated heads elaborated acceptable model calibration compared to observed heads map. A time length of eight years and the observed heads of the year 2004 were used for model prediction. The predictive simulation showed that the continuation of pumping will cause relatively high changes in head distribution and components of groundwater budget whereas, the low deficit computed (7122 m3/d) between inflows and outflows cannot create a significant drawdown of the potentiometric level. Hence, the area under consideration may represent a high permeability and productive zone and strongly recommended for further groundwater development.

Keywords: aquifers, model simulation, groundwater, calibrations, trail-and- error, prediction

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Authors: R. Ziaie Moayed, E. Ghanbari Alamouty

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Deep soil mixing is one of the improvement methods in geotechnical engineering which is widely used in soft soils. This article investigates the consolidation behavior of a soft clay soil which is improved by soil-cement column (SCC) by numerical modeling using Plaxis2D program. This behavior is simulated under vertical static and cyclic load which is applied on the soil surface. The static load problem is the simulation of a physical model test in an axisymmetric condition which uses a single SCC in the model center. The results of numerical modeling consist of settlement of soft soil composite, stress on soft soil and column, and excessive pore water pressure in the soil show a good correspondence with the test results. The response of soft soil composite to the cyclic load in vertical direction also compared with the static results. Also the effects of two variables namely the cement content used in a SCC and the area ratio (the ratio of the diameter of SCC to the diameter of composite soil model, a) is investigated. The results show that the stress on the column with the higher value of a, is lesser compared with the stress on other columns. Different rate of consolidation and excessive pore pressure distribution is observed in cyclic load problem. Also comparing the results of settlement of soil shows higher compressibility in the cyclic load problem.

Keywords: area ratio, consolidation behavior, cyclic load, numerical modeling, soil-cement column

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Authors: Ana Rahma Yuniarti, Ki Moo Lim

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Slowed myocardial conduction velocity (CV) and shortened action potential duration (APD) due to some reason are associated with an increased risk of re-entrant excitation, predisposing to cardiac arrhythmia. That is because both of CV reduction and APD shortening induces shortening of wavelength. In this study, we investigated quantitatively the cardiac mechanical responses under various CV and APD using multi-scale computational model of the heart. The model consisted of electrical model coupled with the mechanical contraction model together with a lumped model of the circulatory system. The electrical model consisted of 149.344 numbers of nodes and 183.993 numbers of elements of tetrahedral mesh, whereas the mechanical model consisted of 356 numbers of nodes and 172 numbers of elements of hexahedral mesh with hermite basis. We performed the electrical simulation with two scenarios: 1) by varying the CV values with constant APD and 2) by varying the APD values with constant CV. Then, we compared the electrical and mechanical responses for both scenarios. Our simulation showed that faster CV and longer APD induced largest resultants wavelength and generated better cardiac pumping efficacy by increasing the cardiac output and consuming less energy. This is due to the long wave propagation and faster conduction generated more synchronous contraction of whole ventricle.

Keywords: conduction velocity, action potential duration, mechanical contraction model, circulatory model

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Authors: Camille A. Issa, Omar Masri

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In the study, the commercial finite element software Abaqus was used to develop a three-dimensional nonlinear finite element model capable of simulating the pull-out test of reinforcing bars from underwater concrete. The results of thirty-two pull-out tests that have different parameters were implemented in the software to study the effect of the concrete cover, the bar size, the use of stirrups, and the compressive strength of concrete. The interaction properties used in the model provided accurate results in comparison with the experimental bond-slip results, thus the model has successfully simulated the pull-out test. The results of the finite element model are used to better understand and visualize the distribution of stresses in each component of the model, and to study the effect of the various parameters used in this study including the role of the stirrups in preventing the stress from reaching to the sides of the specimens.

Keywords: pull-out test, bond strength, underwater concrete, nonlinear finite element analysis, abaqus

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Authors: Arunas Burinskas, Manuela Tvaronavičienė

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Although the new trade theories, unlike the theories of an industrial organisation, see the structure of the market and competition between enterprises through their heterogeneity according to various parameters, they do not pay any particular attention to the analysis of the market structure and its development. In this article, although we relied mainly on models developed by the scholars of new trade theory, we proposed a different approach. In our simulation model, we model market demand according to normal distribution function, while on the supply side (as it is in the new trade theory models), productivity is modeled with the Pareto distribution function. The results of the simulation show that companies with higher productivity (lower marginal costs) do not pass on all the benefits of such economies to buyers. However, even with higher marginal costs, firms can choose to offer higher value-added goods to stay in the market. In general, the structure of the market is formed quickly enough and depends on the skills available to firms.

Keywords: market, structure, simulation, heterogenous firms

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Authors: Ajai Singh

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Simulation of hydrological processes at the watershed outlet through modelling approach is essential for proper planning and implementation of appropriate soil conservation measures in Damodar Barakar catchment, Hazaribagh, India where soil erosion is a dominant problem. This study quantifies the parametric uncertainty involved in simulation of stream flow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed scale model and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN), an artificial neural network model. Both the models were calibrated and validated based on measured stream flow and quantification of the uncertainty in SWAT model output was assessed using ‘‘Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm’’ (SUFI-2). Though both the model predicted satisfactorily, but RBNN model performed better than SWAT with R2 and NSE values of 0.92 and 0.92 during training, and 0.71 and 0.70 during validation period, respectively. Comparison of the results of the two models also indicates a wider prediction interval for the results of the SWAT model. The values of P-factor related to each model shows that the percentage of observed stream flow values bracketed by the 95PPU in the RBNN model as 91% is higher than the P-factor in SWAT as 87%. In other words the RBNN model estimates the stream flow values more accurately and with less uncertainty. It could be stated that RBNN model based on simple input could be used for estimation of monthly stream flow, missing data, and testing the accuracy and performance of other models.

Keywords: SWAT, RBNN, SUFI 2, bootstrap technique, stream flow, simulation

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression

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Authors: H. A. Mansour

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The objective of this research work is studying the water use prediction, prediction technology for water use by action agencies, and others involved in conservation, planning, and environmental assessment of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) simulation model. Models the important physical, processes governing erosion in Egypt (climate, infiltration, runoff, ET, detachment by raindrops, detachment by flowing water, deposition, etc.). Simulation of the non-uniform slope, soils, cropping/management., and Egyptian databases for climate, soils, and crops. The study included important parameters in Egyptian conditions as follows: Water Balance & Percolation, Soil Component (Tillage impacts), Plant Growth & Residue Decomposition, Overland Flow Hydraulics. It could be concluded that we can adapt the WEPP simulation model to determining the previous important parameters under Egyptian conditions.

Keywords: WEPP, adaptation, soil properties, tillage impacts, water balance, soil percolation

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Authors: H. Hosseini, B. V. Berdyshev, I. Iskopintsev

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This paper presents a rheological model for producing shape-memory thermoplastic polymers. Shape-memory occurs as a result of internal rearrangement of the structural elements of a polymer. A non-linear viscoelastic model was developed that allows qualitative and quantitative prediction of the stress-strain behavior of shape-memory polymers during heating. This research was done to develop a technique to determine the maximum possible change in size of heat-shrinkable products during heating. The rheological model used in this work was particularly suitable for defining process parameters and constructive parameters of the processing equipment.

Keywords: elastic deformation, heating, shape-memory polymers, stress-strain behavior, viscoelastic model

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Authors: Aurelija Burinskiene

Abstract:

This paper presents the study for an e-commerce warehouse. The study is aiming to improve order fulfillment activity by identifying the strategy presenting the best performance. A simulation model was proposed to reach the target of this research. This model enables various scenario tests in an e-commerce warehouse, allowing them to find out for the best order fulfillment strategy. By using simulation, model authors investigated customers’ orders representing on-line purchases for one month. Experiments were designed to evaluate various order picking methods applicable to the fulfillment of customers’ orders. The research uses cost components analysis and helps to identify the best possible order picking method improving the overall performance of e-commerce warehouse and fulfillment service to the customers. The results presented show that the application of order batching strategy is the most applicable because it brings distance savings of around 6.7 percentage. This result could be improved by taking an assortment clustering action until 8.34 percentage. So, the recommendations were given to apply the method for future e-commerce warehouse operations.

Keywords: e-commerce, order, fulfilment, strategy, simulation

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Authors: Oleg Oborin

Abstract:

This paper is dedicated to the development of the model, which can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of long-term corporate strategies and identify the best strategies. The theoretical model of the relatively homogenous product market (such as iron and steel industry, mobile services or road transport) has been developed. In the model, the market consists of a large number of companies with different internal characteristics and objectives. The companies can perform mergers and acquisitions in order to increase their market share. The model allows the simulation of long-time dynamics of the market (for a period longer than 20 years). Therefore, a large number of simulations on random input data was conducted in the framework of the model. After that, the results of the model were compared with the dynamics of real markets, such as the US steel industry from the beginning of the XX century to the present day, and the market of mobile services in Germany for the period between 1990 and 2015.

Keywords: Economic Modelling, Long-Time Strategy, Mergers and Acquisitions, Simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 339