Search results for: autoregressive distributed lag

Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

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In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

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Authors: Arun Sanjel, Greg Speegle

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Every second, massive amounts of data are generated, and Data Intensive Scalable Computing (DISC) frameworks have evolved into effective tools for analyzing such massive amounts of data. Since the underlying architecture of these distributed computing platforms is often new to users, building a DISC application can often be time-consuming and prone to errors. The automated conversion of a sequential program to a DISC program will consequently significantly improve productivity. However, synthesizing a user’s intended program from an input specification is complex, with several important applications, such as distributed program synthesizing and code refactoring. Existing works such as Tyro and Casper rely entirely on deductive synthesis techniques or similar program synthesis approaches. Our approach is to develop a data-driven synthesis technique to identify sequential components and translate them to equivalent distributed operations. We emphasize using reinforcement learning and unit testing as feedback mechanisms to achieve our objectives.

Keywords: program synthesis, distributed computing, reinforcement learning, unit testing, DISC

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Authors: Abdulrahman M. Qahtani, Gary. B. Wills, Andy. M. Gravell

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Communicating and managing customers’ requirements in software development projects play a vital role in the software development process. While it is difficult to do so locally, it is even more difficult to communicate these requirements over distributed boundaries and to convey them to multiple distribution customers. This paper discusses the communication of multiple distribution customers’ requirements in the context of customised software products. The main purpose is to understand the challenges of communicating and managing customisation requirements across distributed boundaries. We propose a model for Communicating Customisation Requirements of Multi-Clients in a Distributed Domain (CCRD). Thereafter, we evaluate that model by presenting the findings of a case study conducted with a company with customisation projects for 18 distributed customers. Then, we compare the outputs of the real case process and the outputs of the CCRD model using simulation methods. Our conjecture is that the CCRD model can reduce the challenge of communication requirements over distributed organisational boundaries, and the delay in decision making and in the entire customisation process time.

Keywords: customisation software products, global software engineering, local decision making, requirement engineering, simulation model

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Authors: Edafe Lucky Okotie, Emmanuel Osawaru Omosigho

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This paper examines the impacts of the introduction of distributed energy generation (DEG) technology into the Nigerian power system as an alternative means of energy generation at distribution ends using Otovwodo 15 MVA, 33/11kV injection substation as a case study. The overall idea is to increase the generated energy in the system, improve the voltage profile and reduce system losses. A photovoltaic-based distributed energy generator (PV-DEG) was considered and was optimally placed in the network using Genetic Algorithm (GA) in Mat. Lab/Simulink environment. The results of simulation obtained shows that the dynamic performance of the network was optimized with DEG-grid integration.

Keywords: distributed energy generation (DEG), genetic algorithm (GA), power quality, total load demand, voltage profile

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Authors: Thomas Smith

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Many hackers worldwide would agree that, had it not been for linear-time theory, the refinement of Byzantine fault tolerance might never have occurred. After years of significant research into extreme programming, we validate the refinement of simulated annealing. Maw, our new framework for unstable theory, is the solution to all of these issues.

Keywords: distributed, software engineering, DNS, DHCP

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Authors: Xiao Yihong, Yu Kexin, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

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With the accelerating process of urbanization, the problem of urban road congestion is becoming more and more serious. Intelligent transportation system combining distributed and artificial intelligence has become a research hotspot. As the core development direction of the intelligent transportation system, Cooperative Intelligent Transportation System (C-ITS) integrates advanced information technology and communication methods and realizes the integration of humans, vehicle, roadside infrastructure, and other elements through the multi-agent distributed system. By analyzing the system architecture and technical characteristics of C-ITS, the report proposes a distributed multi-agent C-ITS. The system consists of Roadside Sub-system, Vehicle Sub-system, and Personal Sub-system. At the same time, we explore the scalability of the C-ITS and put forward incorporating local rewards in the centralized training decentralized execution paradigm, hoping to add a scalable value decomposition method. In addition, we also suggest introducing blockchain to improve the safety of the traffic information transmission process. The system is expected to improve vehicle capacity and traffic safety.

Keywords: distributed system, artificial intelligence, multi-agent, cooperative intelligent transportation system

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Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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Authors: Richard Tanaka, Ying Zhu

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This paper studies a few randomized algorithms in application-layer peer-to-peer networks. The significant gain in scalability and resilience that peer-to-peer networks provide has made them widely used and adopted in many real-world distributed systems and applications. The unique properties of peer-to-peer networks make them particularly suitable for randomized algorithms such as random walks and gossip algorithms. Instead of simulations of peer-to-peer networks, we leverage the Docker virtual container technology to develop implementations of the peer-to-peer networks and these distributed randomized algorithms running on top of them. We can thus analyze their behaviour and performance in realistic settings. We further consider the problem of identifying high-risk bottleneck links in the network with the objective of improving the resilience and reliability of peer-to-peer networks. We propose a randomized algorithm to solve this problem and evaluate its performance by simulations.

Keywords: distributed randomized algorithms, peer-to-peer networks, virtual container technology, resilient networks

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Authors: Yuri Zinchenko

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Recently, distributed storage systems have been used more and more in various aspects of everyday life. They provide such necessary properties as Scalability, Fault Tolerance, Durability, and others. At the same time, not only reliable but also fast data storage remains one of the most pressing issues in this area. That brings us to the consensus algorithm as one of the most important components that has a great impact on the functionality of a distributed system. This paper is the result of an analysis of several well-known consensus algorithms, such as Paxos and Raft. The algorithm it offers, called Sync, promotes, but does not insist on simultaneous writing to the nodes (which positively affects the overall writing speed) and tries to minimize the system's inactive time. This allows nodes to reach agreement on the system state in a shorter period, which is a critical factor for distributed systems. Also when developing Sync, a lot of attention was paid to such criteria as simplicity and intuitiveness, the importance of which is difficult to overestimate.

Keywords: sync, consensus algorithm, distributed system, leader-based, synchronization.

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Authors: Amin Hamrahi, Niloofar Moghaddam

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Denial of Service is for denial-of-service attack, a type of attack on a network that is designed to bring the network to its knees by flooding it with useless traffic. Denial of Service (DoS) attacks have become a major threat to current computer networks. Many recent DoS attacks were launched via a large number of distributed attacking hosts in the Internet. These attacks are called distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks. To have a better understanding on DoS attacks, this article provides an overview on existing DoS and DDoS attacks and major defense technologies in the Internet.

Keywords: denial of service, distributed denial of service, traffic, flooding

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Authors: Bilal Ashraf, Qianxiao Zhang

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This study empirically investigated the linkage amid financial development and its important determinants such as information and communication technology, natural resource rents, economic growth, current account balance, and gross savings in 107 economies. This paper preferred to employ the second-generation unit root tests to handle the issues of slope heterogeneity and “cross-sectional dependence” in panel data. The “Kao, Pedroni, and Westerlund tests” confirm the long-lasting connections among the variables under study, while the significant endings of “cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL)” exposed that NRR, CAB, and S negatively affected the financial development while ICT and EG stimulates the procedure of FD. Further, the robustness analysis's application of FGLS supports the appropriateness and applicability of CS-ARDL. Finally, the findings of “DH causality analysis” endorse the bidirectional causality linkages amongst research factors. Based on the study's outcomes, we suggest some policy suggestions that empower the process of financial development, globally.

Keywords: determinants of financial developments, CS-ARDL, financial development, global sample, causality analysis

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Authors: Javad Khazaei, Rick Blum

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Distributed control is an efficient and flexible approach for coordination of multi-agent systems. One of the main challenges in designing a distributed controller is identifying the governing dynamics of the dynamical systems. Data-driven system identification is currently undergoing a revolution. With the availability of high-fidelity measurements and historical data, model-free identification of dynamical systems can facilitate the control design without tedious modeling of high-dimensional and/or nonlinear systems. This paper develops a distributed control design using consensus theory for linear and nonlinear dynamical systems using sparse identification of system dynamics. Compared with existing consensus designs that heavily rely on knowing the detailed system dynamics, the proposed model-free design can accurately capture the dynamics of the system with available measurements and input data and provide guaranteed performance in consensus and tracking problems. Heterogeneous damped oscillators are chosen as examples of dynamical system for validation purposes.

Keywords: consensus tracking, distributed control, model-free control, sparse identification of dynamical systems

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Authors: Wael M. Bazzi, Amir Rastegarnia, Azam Khalili

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In this paper we consider the issue of reliability of measurements in distributed adaptive estimation problem. To this aim, we assume a sensor network with different observation noise variance among the sensors and propose new estimation method based on incremental distributed least mean-square (IDLMS) algorithm. The proposed method contains two phases: I) Estimation of each sensors observation noise variance, and II) Estimation of the desired parameter using the estimated observation variances. To deal with the reliability of measurements, in the second phase of the proposed algorithm, the step-size parameter is adjusted for each sensor according to its observation noise variance. As our simulation results show, the proposed algorithm considerably improves the performance of the IDLMS algorithm in the same condition.

Keywords: adaptive filter, distributed estimation, sensor network, IDLMS algorithm

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Authors: Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti, Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi, Mishelle Doorasamy

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This study offers an empirical investigation into some selected macroeconomic drivers of the monetary policy rate in member countries of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), considering both internal and external variables. We employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to carry out the investigation between monetary policy and some macroeconomic variables in both the long-run and short-run relationship. The results suggest that the drivers of the policy rate in this zone, in the long run, include, among others, global oil price, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product, while in the short run, federal fund rate, trade openness, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product are core determinants of the policy rate. Therefore, in order to ensure long-run stability in the policy rate among the members’ states, these drivers should be given closer consideration so that the trajectory for effective structure can be designed and fused into the economic structure and policy frameworks accordingly.

Keywords: monetary policy rate, macroeconomic variables, WAMZ, ARDL

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Authors: Andres F. Ramirez, Carlos F. Valencia

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The increasing interest in renewable energies strategies application and the path for diminishing the use of carbon related energy sources have encouraged the development of novel strategies for integration of solar energy into the electricity network. A correct inclusion of the fluctuating energy output of a photovoltaic (PV) energy system into an electric grid requires improvements in the forecasting and simulation methodologies for solar energy potential, and the understanding not only of the mean value of the series but the associated underlying stochastic process. We present a methodology for synthetic generation of solar irradiance (shortwave flux) and air temperature bivariate time series based on copula functions to represent the cross-dependence and temporal structure of the data. We explore the advantages of using this nonlinear time series method over traditional approaches that use a transformation of the data to normal distributions as an intermediate step. The use of copulas gives flexibility to represent the serial variability of the real data on the simulation and allows having more control on the desired properties of the data. We use discrete zero mass density distributions to assess the nature of solar irradiance, alongside vector generalized linear models for the bivariate time series time dependent distributions. We found that the copula autoregressive methodology used, including the zero mass characteristics of the solar irradiance time series, generates a significant improvement over state of the art strategies. These results will help to better understand the fluctuating nature of solar energy forecasting, the underlying stochastic process, and quantify the potential of a photovoltaic (PV) energy generating system integration into a country electricity network. Experimental analysis and real data application substantiate the usage and convenience of the proposed methodology to forecast solar irradiance time series and solar energy across northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere, and equatorial zones.

Keywords: copula autoregressive, solar irradiance forecasting, solar energy forecasting, time series generation

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Mohammad Maruf Hasan

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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been increased at a remarkable position around the globe in which emerging economies are getting more FDI compared to industrialized economies. This study aims to examine the determinants of inward FDI flows in Bangladesh. To estimate the long and short-run impact of the FDI determinants for 1996-2020, we employed the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Results show that: (1) macroeconomic determinants, such as economic growth, infrastructure, and market size, have a significant and strong positive effect.(2) Inflation exchange rate shows insignificant effects, while trade openness has mixed (short-run negative, long-run positive) effects on FDI inflows in both the long and short run. (3) Current institutional determinants rule of law has a positive effect on FDI inflows but is statistically insignificant, political stability has a negative, and the rule of law has a considerable beneficial impact on inflows of FDI. (4) The macroeconomic factors have been determined to impact Bangladesh's FDI inflows. Finally, a stable macroeconomic climate is more effective at luring FDI, as this study confirms. From a policy perspective, this study will help the government and policymakers to make a new investment policy.

Keywords: determinants, FDI, ARDL, Bangladesh

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Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

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Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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Authors: Moataz Ammar, Ahdab Elmorshedy

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The distributed generation hosting capacity of a distribution network is typically limited at a given connection point by the upper voltage limit that can be violated due to the injection of active power into the distribution network. The upper voltage limit violation concern becomes more important as the network equivalent resistance increases with respect to its equivalent reactance. This paper investigates the impact of modifying the distribution network equivalent reactance at the point of connection such that the upper voltage limit is violated at a higher distributed generation penetration, than it would without the addition of series reactive compensation. The results show that series reactive compensation proves efficient in certain situations (based on the ratio of equivalent network reactance to equivalent network resistance at the point of connection). As opposed to the conventional case of capacitive compensation of a distribution network to reduce voltage drop, inductive compensation is seen to be more appropriate for alleviation of distributed-generation-induced voltage rise.

Keywords: distributed generation, distribution networks, series compensation, voltage rise

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Authors: Zixuan Yang

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This paper presents an analysis of the necessary consideration culture in distributed design through a thorough literature review and case study. The literature review has identified that the need for understanding cultural differences in product design and user evaluations is highlighted by analyzing cross-cultural influences; culture plays a significant role in distributed work, particularly in establishing team cohesion, trust, and credibility early in the project. By applying approaches of Geert Hofstede's dimensions and Fukuyama's trust analysis, a case study of a global design project, i.e., multicultural distributed teamwork solving the problem in terms of reducing the risk of deep vein thrombosis, showcases cultural dynamics, emphasizing trust-building and decision-making. The lessons learned emphasized the importance of cultural awareness, adaptability, and the utilization of scientific theories to enable effective cross-cultural collaborations in global design, providing valuable insights into navigating cultural diversity within design practices.

Keywords: culture, distributed design, global design, Geert Hofstede's dimensions, Fukuyama's trust analysis

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Authors: Daniel Fulus Fom, Gau Patrick Damulak

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In this study, the Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) and Jordan Recurrent Neural Network (JRNN) models were employed to model the forecasting performance of the daily turbidity flow of White Clay Creek (WCC). The two methods were applied to the log difference series of the daily turbidity flow series of WCC. The measurements of error employed to investigate the forecasting performance of the ARFIMA and JRNN models are the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The outcome of the investigation revealed that the forecasting performance of the JRNN technique is better than the forecasting performance of the ARFIMA technique in the mean square error sense. The results of the ARFIMA and JRNN models were obtained by the simulation of the models using MATLAB version 8.03. The significance of using the log difference series rather than the difference series is that the log difference series stabilizes the turbidity flow series than the difference series on the ARFIMA and JRNN.

Keywords: auto regressive, mean absolute error, neural network, root square mean error

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Authors: Fatéma Zahra Benchara, Mohamed Youssfi, Omar Bouattane, Hassan Ouajji, Mohamed Ouadi Bensalah

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The aim of this paper is to present a distributed implementation of the Type-2 Fuzzy algorithm in a parallel and distributed computing environment based on mobile agents. The proposed algorithm is assigned to be implemented on a SPMD (Single Program Multiple Data) architecture which is based on cooperative mobile agents as AVPE (Agent Virtual Processing Element) model in order to improve the processing resources needed for performing the big data image segmentation. In this work we focused on the application of this algorithm in order to process the big data MRI (Magnetic Resonance Images) image of size (n x m). It is encapsulated on the Mobile agent team leader in order to be split into (m x n) pixels one per AVPE. Each AVPE perform and exchange the segmentation results and maintain asynchronous communication with their team leader until the convergence of this algorithm. Some interesting experimental results are obtained in terms of accuracy and efficiency analysis of the proposed implementation, thanks to the mobile agents several interesting skills introduced in this distributed computational model.

Keywords: distributed type-2 fuzzy algorithm, image processing, mobile agents, parallel and distributed computing

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Authors: N. Nalini, Lokesh B. Bhajantri

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In Distributed Sensor Networks, the sensor nodes are prone to failure due to energy depletion and some other reasons. In this regard, fault tolerance of network is essential in distributed sensor environment. Energy efficiency, network or topology control and fault-tolerance are the most important issues in the development of next-generation Distributed Sensor Networks (DSNs). This paper proposes a node fault detection and recovery using Genetic Algorithm (GA) in DSN when some of the sensor nodes are faulty. The main objective of this work is to provide fault tolerance mechanism which is energy efficient and responsive to network using GA, which is used to detect the faulty nodes in the network based on the energy depletion of node and link failure between nodes. The proposed fault detection model is used to detect faults at node level and network level faults (link failure and packet error). Finally, the performance parameters for the proposed scheme are evaluated.

Keywords: distributed sensor networks, genetic algorithm, fault detection and recovery, information technology

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Authors: Faisel Eltuhami Alzaalik, Omar Imhemed Alramli, Ahmed Mohamed Elaieb

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The IEEE 802.11 defines two modes of MAC, distributed coordination function (DCF) and point coordination function (PCF) mode. The first sub-layer of the MAC is the distributed coordination function (DCF). A contention algorithm is used via DCF to provide access to all traffic. The point coordination function (PCF) is the second sub-layer used to provide contention-free service. PCF is upper DCF and it uses features of DCF to establish guarantee access of its users. Some papers and researches that have been published in this technology were reviewed in this paper, as well as talking briefly about the distributed coordination function (DCF) technology. The simulation of the PCF function have been applied by using a simulation program called network simulator (NS2) and have been found out the throughput of a transmitter system by using this function.

Keywords: DCF, PCF, throughput, NS2

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Authors: Maman Ali M. Moustapha, Qian Yu, Benjamin Adjei Danquah

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This paper investigates the dynamic interaction between renewable energy consumption (REC) and economic growth using dataset from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from 2002 to 2016. For this study the Autoregressive Distributed Lag- Bounds test approach (ARDL) was used to examine the long run relationship between real gross domestic product and REC, while VECM based on Granger causality has been used to examine the direction of Granger causality. Our empirical findings indicate that REC has significant and positive impact on real gross domestic product. In addition, we found that REC and the percentage of access to electricity had unidirectional Granger causality to economic growth while carbon dioxide emission has bidirectional Granger causality to economic growth. Our findings indicate also that 1 per cent increase in the REC leads to an increase in Real GDP by 0.009 in long run. Thus, REC can be a means to ensure sustainable economic growth in the ECOWAS sub-region. However, it is necessary to increase further support and investments on renewable energy production in order to speed up sustainable economic development throughout the region

Keywords: Economic Growth, Renewable Energy, Sustainable Development, Sustainable Energy

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Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Muhammad Sajjad

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Climate change has become a global environmental challenge and it has affected the world’s economy. Its impact is widespread across all major sectors of the economy i.e. agriculture, industry, and services sectors. This study attempts to measure the long run as well as the short-run dynamic between energy; environment and economic growth by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach at aggregate as well as sectoral level. We measured the causal relationship between electricity consumption, fuel consumption, CO₂ emission, and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period of 1980 to 2016 for Pakistan. Our co-integration results reveal that all the variables are co-integrated at aggregate as well as at sectoral level. Electricity consumption shows two-way casual relation at for industry, services and aggregate level. The inverted U-Curve hypothesis tested the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and per capita GDP and results supported the Environment Kuznet Curve (EKC) hypothesis. This study cannot ignore the importance of energy for economic growth but prefers to focus on renewable and green energy to pave on the trajectory of development.

Keywords: climate change, economic growth, energy, environment

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Authors: Gennady P. Ginkul, Sergey Yu. Soloviov

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The article proposes to use so-called "quotation-based algorithm" for simulation of decision making process in distributed expert systems and multi-agent systems. The idea was adopted from the techniques for group decision-making. It is based on the assumption that one expert system to perform its logical inference may use rules from another expert system. The application of the algorithm was demonstrated on the example in which the consolidated decision is the decision that requires minimal quotation.

Keywords: backward chaining inference, distributed expert systems, group decision making, multi-agent systems

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Authors: Tian-Wei Huang, Wei-Ting Bai, Yu-Tung Cheng, Jeng-Han Tsai

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In this paper, a 1-stage 6-section conventional distributed amplifier (CDA) structure distributed power amplifier (DPA) fabricated in a 28-nm HPC+ 1P9M CMOS process is proposed. The transistor size selection is introduced to achieve broadband power matching and thus remains a high flatness output power and power added efficiency (PAE) within the bandwidth. With the inductive peaking technique, the high-frequency pole appears and the high-frequency gain is increased; the gain flatness becomes better as well. The inductive elements used to form an artificial transmission line are built up with a floating ground coplanar waveguide plane (CPWFG) rather than a microstrip line, coplanar waveguide (CPW), or spiral inductor to get better performance. The DPA achieves 12.6 dB peak gain at 52.5 GHz with 2.9 to 64.9 GHz 3-dB bandwidth. The Psat is 11.4 dBm with PAEMAX of 10.6 % at 25 GHz. The output 1-dB compression point power is 9.8 dBm.

Keywords: distributed power amplifier (DPA), gain bandwidth (GBW), floating ground CPW, inductive peaking, 28-nm, CMOS, 5G.

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Authors: Petra Palic, Maruska Vizek

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We provide an in-depth analysis of interdependence of asset returns and volatilities in developed and developing countries. The analysis is split into three parts. In the first part, we use multivariate GARCH model in order to provide stylized facts on cross-market volatility spillovers. In the second part, we use a generalized vector autoregressive methodology developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) in order to estimate separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers among sovereign bond, equity, foreign exchange and commodity markets. In particular, our analysis is focused on cross-market return, and volatility spillovers in 19 developed and developing countries. In order to estimate named spillovers, we use daily data from 2008 to 2017. In the third part of the analysis, we use a generalized vector autoregressive framework in order to estimate total and directional volatility spillovers. We use the same daily data span for one developed and one developing country in order to characterize daily volatility spillovers across stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodities markets.

Keywords: cross-market spillovers, sovereign bond markets, equity markets, value at risk (VAR)

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Authors: Rade M. Ciric, Nikola L. J. Rajakovic

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This paper presents a curriculum of the subject small power plants and renewable energy sources, dealing with the concept of distributed generation, renewable energy sources, hydropower, wind farms, geothermal power plants, cogeneration plants, biogas plants of agriculture and animal origin, solar power and fuel cells. The course is taught the manner of connecting small power plants to the grid, the impact of small generators on the distribution system, as well as economic, environmental and legal aspects of operation of distributed generators.

Keywords: distributed generation, renewable energy sources, energy policy, curriculum

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