Search results for: attractive index

Authors: Adnan I. O. Zaid, Raghad S. Hemeimat

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Magnesium - aluminum alloys are versatile materials which are used in manufacturing a number of engineering and industrial parts in the automobile and aircraft industries due to their strength – to –weight -ratio. Against these preferable characteristics, magnesium is difficult to deform at room temperature therefore it is alloyed with other elements mainly Aluminum and Zinc to add some required properties particularly for their high strength - to -weight ratio. Mg and its alloys oxidize rapidly therefore care should be taken during melting or machining them; but they are not fire hazardous. Grain refinement is an important technology to improve the mechanical properties and the micro structure uniformity of the alloys. Grain refinement has been introduced in early fifties; when Cibula showed that the presence of Ti, and Ti+ B, produced a great refining effect in Al. since then it became an industrial practice to grain refine Al. Most of the published work on grain refinement was directed toward grain refining Al and Zinc alloys; however, the effect of the addition of rare earth material on the grain size or the mechanical behavior of Mg alloys has not been previously investigated. This forms the main objective of the research work; where, the effect of Ti addition on the grain size, mechanical behavior, ductility, and the extrusion force & energy consumed in forward extrusion of Mg-AZ31 alloy is investigated and discussed in two conditions, first in the as cast condition and the second after extrusion. It was found that addition of Ti to Mg- AZ31 alloy has resulted in reduction of its grain size by 14%; the reduction in grain size after extrusion was much higher. However the increase in Vicker’s hardness was 3% after the addition of Ti in the as cast condition, and higher values for Vicker’s hardness were achieved after extrusion. Furthermore, an increase in the strength coefficient by 36% was achieved with the addition of Ti to Mg-AZ31 alloy in the as cast condition. Similarly, the work hardening index was also increased indicating an enhancement of the ductility and formability. As for the extrusion process, it was found that the force and energy required for the extrusion were both reduced by 57% and 59% with the addition of Ti.

Keywords: cast condition, direct extrusion, ductility, MgAZ31 alloy, super - plasticity

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Authors: Tchapo Tchaga Sophia, Cai Chun

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This study measures the efficiency level of corporate governance to improve the quality level of value relevance in the resolution of market value efficiency increase issues, transparency problems, risk frauds, agency problems, investors' confidence, and decision-making issues using IFRS and Corporate Governance Acts (CGA). The final sample of this study contains 3660 firms from ten countries' stock markets from 2010 to 2020. Based on the efficiency market theory and the positive accounting theory, this paper uses multiple econometrical methods (DID method, multivariate and univariate regression methods) and models (Ohlson model and compliance index model) regression to see the incidence results of corporate governance mechanisms on the value relevance level under the influence of IFRS and corporate governance regulations act framework in Africa's stock exchanges for non-financial firms. The results on value relevance show that the corporate governance system, strengthened by the adoption of IFRS and enforcement of new corporate governance regulations, produces better financial statement information when its compliance level is high. And that is both value-relevant and comparable to results in more developed markets. Similar positive and significant results were obtained when predicting future book value per share and earnings per share through the determination of stock price and stock return. The findings of this study have important implications for regulators, academics, investors, and other users regarding the effects of IFRS and the Corporate Governance Act (CGA) on the relationship between corporate governance and accounting information relevance in the African stock market. The contributions of this paper are also based on the uniqueness of the data used in this study. The unique data is from Africa, and not all existing findings provide evidence for Africa and of the DID method used to examine the relationship between corporate governance and value relevance on African stock exchanges.

Keywords: corporate governance value, market efficiency value, value relevance, African stock market, stock return-stock price

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Authors: Jeongwoo Lee

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Children are the most vulnerable travelers and they are at risk for pedestrian injury. Creating a safe route to school is important because walking to school is one of the main opportunities for promotion of needed physical exercise among children. This study examined how the built environmental attributes near an elementary school influence traffic accidents among school-aged children. The study used two complementary data sources including the locations of police-reported pedestrian crashes and the built environmental characteristics of school areas. The environmental attributes of road segments were collected through GIS measurements of local data and actual site audits using the inventory developed for measuring pedestrian-crash risk scores. The inventory data collected at 840 road segments near 32 elementary schools in the city of Ulsan. We observed all segments in a 300-meter-radius area from the entrance of an elementary school. Segments are street block faces. The inventory included 50 items, organized into four domains: accessibility (17items), pleasurability (11items), perceived safety from traffic (9items), and traffic and land-use measures (13items). Elementary schools were categorized into two groups based on the distribution of the pedestrian-crash hazard index scores. A high pedestrian-crash zone was defined as an school area within the eighth, ninth, and tenth deciles, while no pedestrian-crash zone was defined as a school zone with no pedestrian-crash accident among school-aged children between 2013 and 2016. No- and high pedestrian-crash zones were compared to determine whether different settings of the built environment near the school lead to a different rate of pedestrian-crash incidents. The results showed that a crash risk can be influenced by several environmental factors such as a shape of school-route, number of intersections, visibility and land-use in a street, and a type of sidewalk. The findings inform policy for creating safe routes to school to reduce the pedestrian-crash risk among children by focusing on school zones.

Keywords: active school travel, school zone, pedestrian crash, safety route to school

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Authors: Sarah Gounden, Mukesh Dheda, Boikhutso Tlou, Elizabeth Ojewole, Frasia Oosthuizen

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Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been effective in the reduction of mortality and resulted in an improvement in the prognosis of HIV-infected patients. However, treatment with antiretrovirals (ARVs) has led to the development of many adverse drug reactions (ADRs). It is, therefore, necessary to determine the safety profile of these medicines in a South African population in order to ensure safe and optimal medicine use. Objectives: The aim of this study was to quantify ADRs experienced with the different ARVs currently used in South Africa, to determine the safety profile of ARV medicine in South Africa based on reported ADRs, and to determine the ARVs with the lowest risk profile based on specific patient populations. Methodology: This was a quantitative study. Individual case safety reports for the period January 2010 – December 2013 were obtained from the National Pharmacovigilance Center; these reports contained information on ADRs, ARV medicine, and patient demographics. Data was analysed to find associations that may exist between ADRs experienced, ARV medicines used and patient demographics. Results: A total of 1916 patient reports were received of which 1534 met the inclusion criteria for the study. The ARV with the lowest risk of ADRs were found to be lamivudine (0.51%, n=12), followed by lopinavir/ritonavir combination (0.8%, n=19) and abacavir (0.64%, n=15). A higher incidence of ADRs was observed in females compared to males. The age group 31–50 years and the weight group 61–80 kg had the highest incidence of ADRs reported. Conclusion: This study found that the safest ARVs to be used in a South African population are lamivudine, abacavir, and the lopinavir/ritonavir combination. Gender differences play a significant role in the occurrence of ADRs and both anatomical and physiological differences account for this. An increased BMI (body mass index) in both men and women showed an increase in the incidence of ADRs associated with ARV therapy.

Keywords: adverse drug reaction, antiretrovirals, HIV/AIDS, pharmacovigilance, South Africa

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Authors: Amin Ajabi, Chinchu Cherian, Sumi Siddiqua

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Rammed earth (RE) is a traditional soil-based building material made by compressing a mixture of natural earth and binder ingredients such as chalk or lime, in temporary formworks. However, the modern RE uses 5 to 10% cement as a binder in order to meet the strength and durability requirements as per the standard specifications and guidelines. RE construction is considered to be an energy-efficient and environmental-friendly approach when compared to conventional concrete systems, which use 20 to 30% cement. The present study aimed to develop RE mix designs by utilizing non-hazardous wood-based fly ash generated by pulp and paper mills as a partial replacement for cement. The pulp mill fly ash (PPFA)-stabilized RE is considered to be a sustainable approach keeping in view of the massive carbon footprints associated with cement production as well as the adverse environmental impacts due to disposal of PPFA in landfills. For the experimental study, as-received PPFA, as well as PPFA-based geopolymer (synthesized by alkaline activation method), were incorporated as cement substitutes in the RE mixtures. Initially, local soil was collected and characterized by index and engineering properties. The PPFA was procured from a pulp manufacturing mill, and its physicochemical, mineralogical and morphological characterization, as well as environmental impact assessment, was conducted. Further, the various mix designs of RE material incorporating local soil and different proportions of cement, PPFA, and alkaline activator (a mixture of sodium silicate and sodium hydroxide solutions) were developed. The compacted RE specimens were cured and tested for 7-day and 28-day unconfined compressive strength (UCS) variations. Based on UCS results, the optimum mix design was identified corresponding to maximum strength improvement. Further, the cured RE specimens were subjected to freeze-thaw cycle testing for evaluating its performance and durability as a sustainable construction technique under extreme climatic conditions.

Keywords: sustainability, rammed earth, stabilization, pulp mill fly ash, geopolymer, alkaline activation, strength, durability

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Authors: Hee-Young Song

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Background and objectives: In 2011, the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) recommendations proposed a multidimensional assessment of patients’ conditions that included both functional parameters and patient-reported outcomes, with the aim to provide a comprehensive assessment of the disease, thus meeting both the needs of the patient and the role of the physician. However, few studies have evaluated patient-reported outcomes as well as objective functional assessments among individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in clinical practice in Korea. This study was undertaken to explore the relationship between functional status assessed by the 6-minute walking distance (MWD) test and subjective health status reported by stable patients with COPD residing in community. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted with 118 stable COPD patients aged 69.4 years old and selected by a convenient sampling from an outpatient department of pulmonology in a tertiaryhospitals. The 6-MWD test was conducted according to standardized instructions. Participants also completed a constructed questionnaire including general characteristics, smoking history, dyspnea by modified medical research council (mMRC) scale, and health status by COPD assessment test (CAT). Anthropometric measurements were performed for body mass index (BMI). Medical records were reviewed to obtain disease-related characteristics including duration of the disease and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1). Data were analyzed using PASW statistics 20.0. Results: Mean FEV1% of participants was 63.51% and mean 6-MWD and CAT scores were 297.54m and 17.7, respectively. The 6-MWD and CAT showed significant negative correlations (r= -.280, p=.002); FEV1 and CAT did as well correlations (r= -.347, p < .001). Conclusions: Findings suggest that the better functional status an individual with COPD has, the better subjective health status is, and provide the support for using patient-reported outcomes along with functional parameters to facilitate comprehensive assessment of COPD patients in real clinical practices.

Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD assessment test, functional status, patient-reported outcomes

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Authors: Ilaha Rzayeva, Emin Alasgarov, Orkhan Karim-Zada

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This study attempts to consider the linkage between management and computer sciences in order to develop the software named “IntelSymb” as a demo application to prove data analysis of non-energy* fields’ diversification, which will positively influence on energy dependency mitigation of countries. Afterward, we analyzed 18 years of economic fields of development (5 sectors) of 13 countries by identifying which patterns mostly prevailed and which can be dominant in the near future. To make our analysis solid and plausible, as a future work, we suggest developing a gateway or interface, which will be connected to all available on-line data bases (WB, UN, OECD, U.S. EIA) for countries’ analysis by fields. Sample data consists of energy (TPES and energy import indicators) and non-energy industries’ (Main Science and Technology Indicator, Internet user index, and Sales and Production indicators) statistics from 13 OECD countries over 18 years (1995-2012). Our results show that the diversification of non-energy industries can have a positive effect on energy sector dependency (energy consumption and import dependence on crude oil) deceleration. These results can provide empirical and practical support for energy and non-energy industries diversification’ policies, such as the promoting of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), services and innovative technologies efficiency and management, in other OECD and non-OECD member states with similar energy utilization patterns and policies. Industries, including the ICT sector, generate around 4 percent of total GHG, but this is much higher — around 14 percent — if indirect energy use is included. The ICT sector itself (excluding the broadcasting sector) contributes approximately 2 percent of global GHG emissions, at just under 1 gigatonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq). Ergo, this can be a good example and lesson for countries which are dependent and independent on energy, and mainly emerging oil-based economies, as well as to motivate non-energy industries diversification in order to be ready to energy crisis and to be able to face any economic crisis as well.

Keywords: energy policy, energy diversification, “IntelSymb” software, renewable energy

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Authors: Iraj Rezaei, Kamal Al Din Niknami

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Tapeh Zagheh is an important prehistoric site located in the central plateau of Iran, which has settlement layers of the Neolithic and Chalcolithic periods. For this research, 38 soil samples were collected from different parts of the site, as well as two samples from its outside as witnesses. Then the samples were analyzed by XRF. The purpose of this research was to identify some places with special usage for human activities in Tapeh Zagheh by measuring the amount of some special elements in the soil. The result of XRF analysis shows a significant amount of P and K in samples No.3 (fourth floor) and No.4 (third floor), probably due to certain activities such as food preparation and consumption. Samples No.9 and No.10 can be considered suitable examples of the hearths of the prehistoric period in the central plateau of Iran. The color of these samples was completely darkened due to the presence of ash, charcoal, and burnt materials. According to the XRF results, the soil of these hearths has very high amounts of elements such as P, Ca, Mn, S, K, and significant amounts of Ti, Fe, and Na. In addition, the elemental composition of sample No. 14, which was taken from a home waster, also has very high amounts of P, Mn, Mg, Ti, and Fe and high amounts of K and Ca. Sample No. 11, which is related to soil containing large amounts of waster of the kiln, along with a very strong increase in Cl and Na, the amount of elements such as K, Mg, and S has also increased significantly. It seems that the reason for the increase of elements such as Ti and Fe in some Tapeh Zagheh floors (for example, samples number 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) was the use of materials such as ocher mud or fire ash in the composition of these floors. Sample No. 13, which was taken from an oven located in the FIX trench, has very high amounts of Mn, Ti, and Fe and high amounts of P and Ca. Sample No. 15, which is related to House No. VII (probably related to a pen or a place where animals were kept) has much more phosphate compared to the control samples, which is probably due to the addition of animal excrement and urine to the soil. Sample No. 29 was taken from the north of the industrial area of Zagheh village (place of pottery kilns). The very low amount of index elements in sample No. 29 shows that the industrial activities did not extend to the mentioned point, and therefore, the range of this point can be considered as the boundary between the residential part of the Zagheh village and its industrial part.

Keywords: prehistory, multi-elemental analysis, Tapeh Zagheh, XRF

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Authors: N. W. I. A. Jayawardana, W. A. T. A. Jayalath, W. M. T. Madhujith, U. Ralapanawa, R. S. Jayasekera, S. A. S. B. Alagiyawanna, A. M. K. R. Bandara, N. S. Kalupahana

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There is mounting evidence to the effect that dietary and lifestyle changes affect the incidence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). This study was conducted to investigate the association of diet, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and duration of sleep with overweight, obesity, hypertension and diabetes in a cohort of males from the Central Province of Sri Lanka. A total of 2694 individuals aged between 17 – 68 years (Mean = 31) were included in the study. Body Mass Index cutoff values for Asians were used to categorize the participants as normal, overweight and obese. The dietary data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire [FFQ] and data on the level of physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and sleeping hours were obtained using a self-administered validated questionnaire. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure, random blood glucose levels were measured to determine the incidence of hypertension and diabetes. Among the individuals, the prevalence of overweight and obesity were 34% and 16.4% respectively. Approximately 37% of the participants suffered from hypertension. Overweight and obesity were associated with older age men (P<0.0001), frequency of smoking (P=0.0434), alcohol consumption level (P=0.0287) and the quantity of lipid intake (P=0.0081). Consumption of fish (P=0.6983) and salty snacks (P=0.8327), sleeping hours (P=0.6847) and the level of physical activity were not significantly (P=0.3301) associated with the incidence of overweight and obesity. Based on the fitted model, only age was significantly associated with hypertension (P < 0.001). Further, age (P < 0.0001), sleeping hours (P=0.0953) and consumption of fatty foods (P=0.0930) were significantly associated with diabetes. Age was associated with higher odds of pre diabetes (OR:1.089;95% CI:1.053,1.127) and diabetes (OR:1.077;95% CI:1.055,1.1) whereas 7-8 hrs. of sleep per day was associated with lesser odds of diabetes (OR:0.403;95% CI:0.184,0.884). High prevalence of overweight, obesity and hypertension in working-age males is a threatening sign for this area. As this population ages in the future and urbanization continues, the prevalence of above risk factors will likely to escalate.

Keywords: age, males, non-communicable diseases, obesity

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem

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Background: Inattentive food choices and engagement in excessive physical activities by male athletes can potentially lead to adverse health consequences. Objective: The aim was to ascertain the occurrence of risk factors associated with the Male Athlete Triad among young elite athletes in Pakistan. Methodology: In 2018, a cross-sectional study based on questionnaires was conducted at the Pakistan Sports Board. The study aimed to explore the risk factors related to the Male Athlete Triad in young elite athletes who were part of national training camps in major metropolitan areas. The study included proficient male elite athletes aged 18 to 25 years, capable of understanding the English questionnaire. The athletes completed a survey encompassing aspects like demographic information, educational background, Body Mass Index (BMI), sports involvement, and hours of participation. Additionally, they filled out the Eating Attitude Test-26 (EAT-26) and questionnaires assessing risks of amenorrhea and low bone mineral density. The prevalence of risk factors for each of the three components was individually evaluated. The collected data underwent analysis using SPSS-20, with descriptive statistics being applied. Results: The study comprised a sample of 90 elite athletes (mean age: 23.57 ± 2.37 years, mean BMI: 21.97 ± 1.90) engaged in various sports. The EAT-26 results indicated that 50% of athletes were at risk of developing an eating disorder. Moreover, 83.3% exhibited disordered eating behaviors that necessitated referral. Risks for amenorrhea were observed in 15% of the participants, and regarding low bone mineral density, notable risks were absent except for the consumption of caffeinated beverages, which was noted in 51.7% of participants. Conclusion: The study identified a significant prevalence of disordered eating risk among male elite athletes in Pakistan. However, the risks associated with amenorrhea and low bone mineral density were not a major concern in this particular group.

Keywords: 1. health and physical education risk factors male athlete associated with the male athlete traid in young elite athlete from pakistan., 2. sports sciences pakistan, 3. risk factors sports sciences pakistan, 4. triad and young elite athlete from pakistan

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Authors: Zhaopeng Zhu, Xianzhi Song, Gensheng Li

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Transports of solid particles through the drill pipe, drill string-hole annulus and hydraulically generated fractures are important dynamic processes encountered in oil and gas well drilling and completion operations. Different from particle transport in infinite space, the transports of cuttings, proppants and formation sand are hindered by a finite boundary. Therefore, an accurate description of the particle transport behavior under the bounded wall conditions encountered in drilling and hydraulic fracturing operations is needed to improve drilling safety and efficiency. In this study, the particle settling experiments were carried out to investigate the particle settling behavior in the pipe, annulus and between the parallel plates filled with power-law fluids. Experimental conditions simulated the particle Reynolds number ranges of 0.01-123.87, the dimensionless diameter ranges of 0.20-0.80 and the fluid flow behavior index ranges of 0.48-0.69. Firstly, the wall effect of the annulus is revealed by analyzing the settling process of the particles in the annular geometry with variable inner pipe diameter. Then, the geometric continuity among the pipe, annulus and parallel plates was determined by introducing the ratio of inner diameter to an outer diameter of the annulus. Further, a unified dimensionless diameter was defined to confirm the relationship between the three different geometry in terms of the wall effect. In addition, a dimensionless term independent from the settling velocity was introduced to establish a unified explicit settling velocity model applicable to pipes, annulus and fractures with a mean relative error of 8.71%. An example case study was provided to demonstrate the application of the unified model for predicting particle settling velocity. This paper is the first study of annulus wall effects based on the geometric continuity concept and the unified model presented here will provide theoretical guidance for improved hydraulic design of cuttings transport, proppant placement and sand management operations.

Keywords: wall effect, particle settling velocity, cuttings transport, proppant transport in fracture

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Authors: Heeba A. Gurku

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Introduction: Cone Beam CT(CBCT) images play an integral part in proper patient positioning in cancer patients undergoing radiation therapy treatment. But these images are low in quality. The purpose of this study is to generate high-quality synthetic CT images from CBCT using generative models. Material and Methods: This study utilized two datasets from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA) 1) Lung cancer dataset of 20 patients (with full view CBCT images) and 2) Pancreatic cancer dataset of 40 patients (only 27 patients having limited view images were included in the study). Cycle Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) and its variant Attention Guided Generative Adversarial Networks (AGGAN) models were used to generate the synthetic CTs. Models were evaluated by visual evaluation and on four metrics, Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM), Peak Signal Noise Ratio (PSNR) Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), to compare the synthetic CT and original CT images. Results: For pancreatic dataset with limited view CBCT images, our study showed that in Cycle GAN model, MAE, RMSE, PSNR improved from 12.57to 8.49, 20.94 to 15.29 and 21.85 to 24.63, respectively but structural similarity only marginally increased from 0.78 to 0.79. Similar, results were achieved with AGGAN with no improvement over Cycle GAN. However, for lung dataset with full view CBCT images Cycle GAN was able to reduce MAE significantly from 89.44 to 15.11 and AGGAN was able to reduce it to 19.77. Similarly, RMSE was also decreased from 92.68 to 23.50 in Cycle GAN and to 29.02 in AGGAN. SSIM and PSNR also improved significantly from 0.17 to 0.59 and from 8.81 to 21.06 in Cycle GAN respectively while in AGGAN SSIM increased to 0.52 and PSNR increased to 19.31. In both datasets, GAN models were able to reduce artifacts, reduce noise, have better resolution, and better contrast enhancement. Conclusion and Recommendation: Both Cycle GAN and AGGAN were significantly able to reduce MAE, RMSE and PSNR in both datasets. However, full view lung dataset showed more improvement in SSIM and image quality than limited view pancreatic dataset.

Keywords: CT images, CBCT images, cycle GAN, AGGAN

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Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Namdari, Hosein Torki

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Security as an abstract concept, has involved human being from the beginning of creation to the present, and certainly to the future. Accordingly, battles, conflicts, challenges, legal proceedings, crimes and all issues related to human kind are associated with this concept. Today by interviewing people about their life, the security of societies and Social crimes are interviewed too. Along with the security as an infrastructure and vital concept, the economy and related issues e.g. welfare, per capita income, total government revenue, export, import and etc. is considered another infrastructure and vital concept. These two vital concepts (Security and Economic) have linked together complexly and significantly. The present study employs analytical-descriptive research method using documents and Statistics of official sources. Discovery and explanation of this mutual connection are comprising a profound and extensive research; so management, development and reform in system and relationships of the scope of this two concepts are complex and difficult. Tourism and its position in today's economy is one of the main pillars of the economy of the 21st century that maybe associate with the security and social crimes more than other pillars. Like all human activities, economy of societies and partially tourism dependent on security especially in the public and social security. On the other hand, the true economic development (generally) and the growth of the tourism industry (dedicated) are a security generating and supporting for it, because a dynamic economic infrastructure prevents the formation of centers of crime and illegal activities by providing a context for socio-economic development for all segments of society in a fair and humane. This relationship is a formula of the complexity between the two concept of economy and security. Police as a revealed or people-oriented organization in the field of security directly has linked with the economy of a community and is very effective In the face of the tourism industry. The relationship between security and national crime index, and economic indicators especially ones related to tourism is confirming above discussion that is notable. According to understanding processes about security and economic as two key and vital concepts are necessary and significant for sovereignty of governments.

Keywords: economic, police, tourism, social security

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Authors: Sundus Mona, Atif Adnan, Babar Ali, Fareeha Arshad, Allah Rakha

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Molecular diversity is the variation in the abundance of species. Forensic entomology is a neglected field in Pakistan. Insects collected from the crime scene should be handled by forensic entomologists who are currently virtually non-existent in Pakistan. Correct identification of insect specimen along with knowledge of their biodiversity can aid in solving many problems related to complicated forensic cases. Inadequate morphological identification and insufficient thermal biological studies limit the entomological utility in Forensic Medicine. Recently molecular identification of entomological evidence has gained attention globally. DNA barcoding is the latest and established method for species identification. Only proper identification can provide a precise estimation of postmortem intervals. Arthropods are known to be the first tourists scavenging on decomposing dead matter. The objective of the proposed study was to identify species by molecular techniques and analyze their phylogenetic importance with barcoded necrophagous insect species of early succession on human cadavers. Based upon this identification, the study outcomes will be the utilization of established DNA bar codes to identify carrion feeding insect species for concordant estimation of post mortem interval. A molecular identification method involving sequencing of a 658bp ‘barcode’ fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (CO1) gene from collected specimens of unknown dipteral species from cadavers of Lahore was evaluated. Nucleotide sequence divergences were calculated using MEGA 7 and Arlequin, and a neighbor-joining phylogenetic tree was generated. Three species were identified, Chrysomya megacephala, Chrysomya saffranea, and Chrysomya rufifacies with low genetic diversity. The fixation index was 0.83992 that suggests a need for further studies to identify and classify forensically relevant insects in Pakistan. There is an exigency demand for further research especially when immature forms of arthropods are recovered from the crime scene.

Keywords: molecular diversity, DNA barcoding, species identification, forensically relevant

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

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In the first decades of the 21st century, in the electronic trading environment, algorithmic capital investments became the primary tool to make a profit by speculations in financial markets. A significant number of traders, private or institutional investors are participating in the capital markets every day using automated algorithms. The autonomous trading software is today a considerable part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial activity. The trading decisions and orders are made automatically by computers using different mathematical models. This paper will present one of these models called Price Prediction Line. A mathematical algorithm will be revealed to build a reliable trend line, which is the base for limit conditions and automated investment signals, the core for a computerized investment system. The paper will guide how to apply these tools to generate entry and exit investment signals, limit conditions to build a mathematical filter for the investment opportunities, and the methodology to integrate all of these in automated investment software. The paper will also present trading results obtained for the leading German financial market index with the presented methods to analyze and to compare different automated investment algorithms. It was found that a specific mathematical algorithm can be optimized and integrated into an automated trading system with good and sustained results for the leading German Market. Investment results will be compared in order to qualify the presented model. In conclusion, a 1:6.12 risk was obtained to reward ratio applying the trigonometric method to the DAX Deutscher Aktienindex on 24 months investment. These results are superior to those obtained with other similar models as this paper reveal. The general idea sustained by this paper is that the Price Prediction Line model presented is a reliable capital investment methodology that can be successfully applied to build an automated investment system with excellent results.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, high-frequency trading, DAX Deutscher Aktienindex

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Authors: Yu Fang Chen, Jeng Fung Hung

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This study aimed to develop a circular economy scale to assess the level of recognition among high-level executives in businesses regarding the circular economy. The circular economy is crucial for global ESG sustainable development and poses a challenge for corporate social responsibility. The aim of promoting the circular economy is to reduce resource consumption, move towards sustainable development, reduce environmental impact, maintain ecological balance, increase economic value, and promote employment. This study developed a 23-item Circular Economy Scale, which includes three subscales: "Understanding of Circular Economy by Enterprises" (8 items), "Attitudes" (9 items), and "Behaviors" (6 items). The Likert 5-point scale was used to measure responses, with higher scores indicating higher levels of agreement among senior executives with regard to the circular economy. The study tested 105 senior executives and used a structural equation model (SEM) as a measurement indicator to determine the extent to which potential variables were measured. The standard factor loading of the measurement indicator needs to be higher than 0.7, and the average variance explained (AVE) represents the index of convergent validity, which should be greater than 0.5 or at least 0.45 to be acceptable. Out of the 23 items, 12 did not meet the standard, so they were removed, leaving 5 items, 3 items, and 3 items for each of the three subscales, respectively, all with a factor loading greater than 0.7. The AVE for all three subscales was greater than 0.45, indicating good construct validity. The Cronbach's α reliability values for the three subscales were 0.887, 0.787, and 0.734, respectively, and the total scale was 0.860, all of which were higher than 0.7, indicating good reliability. The Circular Economy Scale developed in this study measures three conceptual components that align with the theoretical framework of the literature review and demonstrate good reliability and validity. It can serve as a measurement tool for evaluating the degree of acceptance of the circular economy among senior executives in enterprises. In the future, this scale can be used by senior executives in enterprises as an evaluation tool to further explore its impact on sustainable development and to promote circular economy and sustainable development based on the reference provided.

Keywords: circular economy, corporate social responsibility, scale development, structural equation model

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Authors: Lydia Foucan, Laurent Larifla, Emmanuelle Durand, Christine Rambhojan, Veronique Dhennin, Jean-Marc Lacorte, Philippe Froguel, Amelie Bonnefond

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In the population of Guadeloupe Island (472,124 inhabitants and 80% of subjects of African descent), overweight and obesity were estimated at 23% and 9% respectively among children. High prevalence of diabetes has been reported (~10%) in the adult population. Nevertheless, no study has investigated the contribution of gene mutations to childhood obesity in this population. We aimed to investigate rare genetic mutations in genes involved in monogenic obesity or diabetes in obese Afro-Caribbean children from Guadeloupe Island using next-generation sequencing. The present investigation included unrelated obese children, from a previous study on overweight conducted in Guadeloupe Island in 2013. We sequenced coding regions of 59 genes involved in monogenic obesity or diabetes. A total of 25 obese schoolchildren (with Z-score of body mass index [BMI]: 2.0 to 2.8) were screened for rare mutations (non-synonymous, splice-site, or insertion/deletion) in 59 genes. Mean age of the study population was 12.4 ± 1.1 years. Seventeen children (68%) had insulin-resistance (HOMA-IR > 3.16). A family history of obesity (mother or father) was observed in eight children and three of the accompanying parent presented with type 2 diabetes. None of the children had gonadotrophic abnormality or mental retardation. We detected five rare heterozygous mutations, in four genes involved in monogenic obesity, in five different obese children: MC4R p.Ile301Thr and SIM1 p.Val326Thrfs*43 mutations which were pathogenic; SIM1 p.Ser343Pro and SH2B1 p.Pro90His mutations which were likely pathogenic; and NTRK2 p.Leu140Phe that was of uncertain significance. In parallel, we identified seven carriers of mutation in ABCC8 or KCNJ11 (involved in monogenic diabetes), which were of uncertain significance (KCNJ11 p.Val13Met, KCNJ11 p.Val151Met, ABCC8 p.Lys1521Asn and ABCC8 p.Ala625Val). Rare pathogenic or likely pathogenic mutations, linked to severe obesity were detected in more than 15% of this Afro-Caribbean population at high risk of obesity and type 2 diabetes.

Keywords: childhood obesity, MC4R, monogenic obesity, SIM1

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Authors: Vijaya Subramaniam, Loh Soh Kheang, Astimar Abdul Aziz

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Water footprint (WFP) has gained importance due to the increase in water scarcity in the world. This study analyses the WFP for an agriculture sector, i.e., the oil palm supply chain, which produces oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB), crude palm oil, palm kernel, and crude palm kernel oil. The water accounting and vulnerability evaluation (WAVE) method was used. This method analyses the water depletion index (WDI) based on the local blue water scarcity. The main contribution towards the WFP at the plantation was the production of FFB from the crop itself at 0.23m³/tonne FFB. At the mill, the burden shifts to the water added during the process, which consists of the boiler and process water, which accounted for 6.91m³/tonne crude palm oil. There was a 33% reduction in the WFP when there was no dilution or water addition after the screw press at the mill. When allocation was performed, the WFP reduced by 42% as the burden was shared with the palm kernel and palm kernel shell. At the kernel crushing plant (KCP), the main contributor towards the WFP 4.96 m³/tonne crude palm kernel oil which came from the palm kernel which carried the burden from upstream followed by electricity, 0.33 m³/tonne crude palm kernel oil used for the process and 0.08 m³/tonne crude palm kernel oil for transportation of the palm kernel. A comparison was carried out for mills with biogas capture versus no biogas capture, and the WFP had no difference for both scenarios. The comparison when the KCPs operate in the proximity of mills as compared to those operating in the proximity of ports only gave a reduction of 6% for the WFP. Both these scenarios showed no difference and insignificant difference, which differed from previous life cycle assessment studies on the carbon footprint, which showed significant differences. This shows that findings change when only certain impact categories are focused on. It can be concluded that the impact from the water used by the oil palm tree is low due to the practice of no irrigation at the plantations and the high availability of water from rainfall in Malaysia. This reiterates the importance of planting oil palm trees in regions with high rainfall all year long, like the tropics. The milling stage had the most significant impact on the WFP. Mills should avoid dilution to reduce this impact.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, water footprint, crude palm oil, crude palm kernel oil, WAVE method

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Authors: Jayson Cheyne, David Butler, Iain Bomphray

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In recent years, lithium-ion batteries have been used increasingly for electric vehicles and large energy storage systems due to their high-power density and long lifespan. Despite this, thermal runaway remains a significant safety problem because of its uncontrollable and irreversible nature - which can lead to fires and explosions. In large-scale lithium-ion packs and modules, thermal runaway propagation between cells can escalate fire hazards and cause significant damage. Thus, safety measures are required to mitigate thermal runaway propagation. The current research explores composite phase change materials (PCM) containing expanded graphite (EG) for thermal runaway mitigation. PCMs are an area of significant interest for battery thermal management due to their ability to absorb substantial quantities of heat during phase change. Moreover, the introduction of EG can support heat transfer from the cells to the PCM (owing to its high thermal conductivity) and provide shape stability to the PCM during phase change. During the research, a thermal model was established for an array of 16 cylindrical cells to simulate heat dissipation with and without the composite PCM. Two conditions were modeled, including the behavior during charge/discharge cycles (i.e., throughout regular operation) and thermal runaway. Furthermore, parameters including cell spacing, composite PCM thickness, and EG weight percentage (WT%) were varied to establish the optimal material parameters for enabling thermal runaway mitigation and effective thermal management. Although numerical modeling is still ongoing, initial findings suggest that a 3mm PCM containing 15WT% EG can effectively suppress thermal runaway propagation while maintaining shape stability. The next step in the research is to validate the model through controlled experimental tests. Additionally, with the perceived fire safety concerns relating to PCM materials, fire safety tests, including UL-94 and Limiting Oxygen Index (LOI), shall be conducted to explore the flammability risk.

Keywords: battery safety, electric vehicles, phase change materials, thermal management, thermal runaway

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Authors: Emmanuel Dele Balogun

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This paper analyzes, using descriptive statistics and econometrics data which span the period 1981 to 2014 to gauge the effects of trade policy incentives on economic growth in Nigeria. It argues that the provided incentives penalize economic growth during pre-trade liberalization eras, but stimulated a rapid increase in total factor productivity during the post-liberalization period of 2000 to 2014. The trend analysis shows that Nigeria maintained high tariff walls in economic regulation eras which became low in post liberalization era. The protections were in favor of infant industries, which were mainly appendages of multinationals but against imports of competing food and finished consumer products. The trade openness index confirms the undue exposure of Nigeria’s economy to the vagaries of international market shocks; while banking sector recapitalization and new listing of telecommunications companies deepened the financial markets in post-liberalization era. The structure of economic incentives was biased in favor of construction, trade and services, but against the real sector despite protectionist policies. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) estimates show that the Nigerian economy suffered stagnation in pre-liberalization eras, but experienced rapid growth rates in post-liberalization eras. The regression results relating trade policy incentives to TFP growth rate yielded a significant but negative intercept suggesting that a non-interventionist policy could be detrimental to economic progress, while protective tariff which limits imports of competing products could spur productivity gains in domestic import substitutes beyond factor growth with market liberalization. The main constraint to the effectiveness of trade policy incentives is the failure of benefiting industries to leverage on the domestic factor endowments of the nation. This paper concludes that there is the need to review the current economic transformation strategies urgently with a view to provide policymakers with a better understanding of the most viable options that could make for rapid success.

Keywords: economic growth, macroeconomic incentives, total factor productivity, trade policies

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Authors: Hitoshi Minakuchi, Izumi Takei, Shu Wakino, Koichi Hayashi, Hiroshi Itoh

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Objectives: Among type 2 diabetics, patients with CKD(chronic kidney disease), insulin resistance, impaired glyconeogenesis in kidney and reduced degradation of insulin are recognized, and we observed different fluctuational patterns of blood sugar between CKD patients and non-CKD patients. On the other hand, non-dipper type blood pressure change is the risk of organ damage and mortality. We performed cross-sectional study to elucidate the characteristic of the fluctuation of blood glucose and blood pressure at insulin-treated diabetic patients with chronic kidney disease. Methods: From March 2011 to April 2013, at the Ichikawa General Hospital of Tokyo Dental College, we recruited 20 outpatients. All participants are insulin-treated type 2 diabetes with CKD. We collected serum samples, urine samples for several hormone measurements, and performed CGMS(Continuous glucose measurement system), ABPM (ambulatory blood pressure monitoring), brain computed tomography, carotid artery thickness, ankle brachial index, PWV, CVR-R, and analyzed these data statistically. Results: Among all 20 participants, hypoglycemia was decided blood glucose 70mg/dl by CGMS of 9 participants (45.0%). The event of hypoglycemia was recognized lower eGFR (29.8±6.2ml/min：41.3±8.5ml/min, P<0.05), lower HbA1c (6.44±0.57%：7.53±0.49%), higher PWV (1858±97.3cm/s：1665±109.2cm/s), higher serum glucagon (194.2±34.8pg/ml：117.0±37.1pg/ml), higher free cortisol of urine (53.8±12.8μg/day：34.8±7.1μg/day), and higher metanephrin of urine (0.162±0.031mg/day：0.076±0.029mg/day). Non-dipper type blood pressure change in ABPM was detected 8 among 9 participants with hypoglycemia (88.9%), 4 among 11 participants (36.4%) without hypoglycemia. Multiplex logistic-regression analysis revealed that the event of hypoglycemia is the independent factor of non-dipper type blood pressure change. Conclusions: Among insulin-treated type 2 diabetic patients with CKD, the events of hypoglycemia were frequently detected, and can associate with the organ derangements through the medium of non-dipper type blood pressure change.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, hypoglycemia, non-dipper type blood pressure change, diabetic patients

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Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Leyla Sattarzadeh, Maghsoud Peeri, Mohammadali Azarbaijani, Hasan Matin Homaee

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Inflammation by various mechanisms may cause atherosclerosis. Systemic circulating inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein (CRP), pro-inflammatory cytokines such as Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and adhesion molecules like Intracellular Adhesion Molecule-1 (ICAM-1) are the predictors of cardiovascular diseases. Regarding the conflicting results about the effect of resistance exercise training on these inflammatory markers, the present study aimed to examine the effect of eight week different patterns of resistance exercise training on CRP, IL-6 and ICAM-1 levels in healthy untrained women. 40 volunteered and healthy untrained female university students (aged: 21+ 3 yr., Body Mass Index: 21.5+ 3.5 kg/m2) were selected purposefully and divided into three groups. At the end of training protocol and after subjects drop during the protocol in upper body exercise training (n=11), lower body (n=12) completed the eight week of training period although the control group (n=7) did anything. Blood samples gathered pre and post experimental period and CRP, IL-6 and ICAM-1 levels were evaluated using special laboratory kits, then the difference of pre and post values of each indices analyzed using one way Analysis of Variance (α < 0.05). The results of one way ANOVA for difference of pre and post values of CRP and ICAM-1 showed no significant changes due to the exercise training. But there were significant differences between groups about IL-6. Tukey post- hoc test indicated that there is significant difference between the differences of pre and post values of IL-6 between lower body exercise training group and control group, and eight weeks of lower body exercise training lead to significant changes in IL-6 values. There were no changes in anthropometric indices. The findings show that the different patterns of upper and lower body exercise training by involving the different amount of muscles altered the IL-6 values in lower body exercise training group probably because of engaging the bigger amount of muscles, but showed any significant changes about CRP and ICAM-1 probably due to intensity and duration of exercise or the lower levels of these markers at baseline of healthy people.

Keywords: C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, intracellular adhesion molecule-1, resistance training

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Authors: Hsin-Chieh Lee, Fen-Ling Kuo, Jui-Chi Lin

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Background: Upper extremity functional impairment that occurs after stroke includes hemiplegia, synergy movement, muscle hypertonicity, and somatosensory impairment, which result in inefficient and inaccurate movement. Robot-assisted rehabilitation is an intensive training approach that is effective in sensorimotor and hand function recovery. However, these systems mostly focused on the proximal part of the upper limb rather than the distal part. The device used in our study was Gloreha Sinfonia, which focuses on the distal part of the upper limb and uses a dynamic support system to facilitate the whole limb function. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of robot-assisted therapy (RT) with Gloreha device on sensorimotor, and ADLs in patients with stroke. Method: Patients with stroke (N=25) participated AB or BA (A = 12 RT sessions and B = 12 conventional therapy (CT) sessions) for 6 weeks (60 min at each session, twice a week), with 1-month break for washout period. The performance of the patients was assessed by a blinded assessor at 4 time points (pretest 1, posttest 1, pretest 2, posttest 2) which including the Fugl–Meyer Assessment-upper extremity (FMA-UE), box and block test, electromyography of the extensor digitorum communis (EDC) and brachioradialis, a grip dynamometer for motor evaluation; Semmes–Weinstein hand monofilament and Revision of the Nottingham Sensory Assessment for sensory evaluation; and the Modified Barthel Index (MBI) for assessing the ADL ability. Result: RT group significantly improved FMA-UE proximal scores (p = 0.038), FMA-UE total scores (p = 0.046), and MBI (p = 0.030). The EDC exhibited higher efficiency during the small block grasping task in the RT group than in the CT group (p = 0.050). Conclusions: RT with the Gloreha device might lead to beneficial effects on arm motor function, ADL ability, and EDC muscle recruitment efficacy in patients with subacute to chronic stroke.

Keywords: activities of daily living, hand function, robotic rehabilitation, stroke

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Authors: Yijun Shao, Yan Cheng, Rashmee U. Shah, Charlene R. Weir, Bruce E. Bray, Qing Zeng-Treitler

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Deep neural network (DNN) models are being explored in the clinical domain, following the recent success in other domains such as image recognition. For clinical adoption, outcome prediction models require explanation, but due to the multiple non-linear inner transformations, DNN models are viewed by many as a black box. In this study, we developed a deep neural network model for predicting 1-year mortality of patients who underwent major cardio vascular procedures (MCVPs), using temporal image representation of past medical history as input. The dataset was obtained from the electronic medical data warehouse administered by Veteran Affairs Information and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). We identified 21,355 veterans who had their first MCVP in 2014. Features for prediction included demographics, diagnoses, procedures, medication orders, hospitalizations, and frailty measures extracted from clinical notes. Temporal variables were created based on the patient history data in the 2-year window prior to the index MCVP. A temporal image was created based on these variables for each individual patient. To generate the explanation for the DNN model, we defined a new concept called impact score, based on the presence/value of clinical conditions’ impact on the predicted outcome. Like (log) odds ratio reported by the logistic regression (LR) model, impact scores are continuous variables intended to shed light on the black box model. For comparison, a logistic regression model was fitted on the same dataset. In our cohort, about 6.8% of patients died within one year. The prediction of the DNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.5% while the LR model achieved an AUC of 74.6%. A strong but not perfect correlation was found between the aggregated impact scores and the log odds ratios (Spearman’s rho = 0.74), which helped validate our explanation.

Keywords: deep neural network, temporal data, prediction, frailty, logistic regression model

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Authors: Maryam Sayadi, Rana Sedighpour, Hossein Rezaie

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In this study, in order to evaluate water quality of Gamasiab and Gharehsoo rivers located in Kermanshah province, the information of a 5-year statistical period during the years 2014-2018 was used. To evaluate the hydrochemistry of water, first the type and hydrogeochemical facies of river water were determined using Stiff and Piper diagrams. Then, based on Gibbs diagram and combination diagrams, the factors controlling the chemical parameters of the two rivers were identified. Saturation indices were used to predict the possibility of dissolution and deposition of some minerals. Then, in order to classify water in different sections, fourteen water quality indicators for different uses along with WHO standard were used. Finally, factor analysis was used to determine the processes affecting the hydrochemistry of the two rivers. The results of this study showed that in both rivers, the predominant type and facies are bicarbonate of calcite. Also, the main factor in changing the chemical quality of water in both Gamasiab and Gharehsoo rivers is the water-rock reaction. According to the results of factor analysis in both rivers, two factors have the greatest impact on water quality in the region. Among the parameters of Gamasiab river in the first factor, HCO3-, Na+ and Cl-, respectively, had the highest factor loads, and in the second factor, SO42- and Mg2+ were selected as the main parameters. The parameters Ca2+, Cl- and Na have the highest factor loads in the first factor and in the second factor Mg2+ and SO42- have the highest factor loads in Gharehsoo river. The dissolution of carbonate formations due to their abundance and expansion in the two basins has a more significant effect on changing water chemistry. It has saturated the water of rivers with aragonite, calcite and dolomite. Due to the low contribution of the second factor in changing the chemical parameters, the water of both rivers is saturated with respect to evaporative minerals such as gypsum, halite and anhydrite in all stations. Based on Schoeller diagrams, Wilcox and other quality indicators in these two sections, the amount of main physicochemical parameters are in the desired range for drinking and agriculture. The results of Langelier, Ryznar, Larson-Skold and Puckorius indices showed that water is corrosive in industry.

Keywords: factor analysis, hydrochemical, saturation index, surface water quality

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Authors: Ahlem Bouziri, Chiraz Latiri, Eric Gaussier

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The steady growth in the size of textual document collections is a key progress-driver for modern information retrieval techniques whose effectiveness and efficiency are constantly challenged. Given a user query, the number of retrieved documents can be overwhelmingly large, hampering their efficient exploitation by the user. In addition, retaining only relevant documents in a query answer is of paramount importance for an effective meeting of the user needs. In this situation, the query expansion technique offers an interesting solution for obtaining a complete answer while preserving the quality of retained documents. This mainly relies on an accurate choice of the added terms to an initial query. Interestingly enough, query expansion takes advantage of large text volumes by extracting statistical information about index terms co-occurrences and using it to make user queries better fit the real information needs. In this respect, a promising track consists in the application of data mining methods to extract dependencies between terms, namely a generic basis of association rules between terms. The key feature of our approach is a better trade off between the size of the mining result and the conveyed knowledge. Thus, face to the huge number of derived association rules and in order to select the optimal combination of query terms from the generic basis, we propose to model the problem as a classification problem and solve it using a supervised learning algorithm such as SVM or k-means. For this purpose, we first generate a training set using a genetic algorithm based approach that explores the association rules space in order to find an optimal set of expansion terms, improving the MAP of the search results. The experiments were performed on SDA 95 collection, a data collection for information retrieval. It was found that the results were better in both terms of MAP and NDCG. The main observation is that the hybridization of text mining techniques and query expansion in an intelligent way allows us to incorporate the good features of all of them. As this is a preliminary attempt in this direction, there is a large scope for enhancing the proposed method.

Keywords: supervised leaning, classification, query expansion, association rules

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Authors: Israel Ropo Orimoloye, Johanes A. Belle, Olusola Adeyemi, Olusola O. Ololade

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With more than 100,000 orbits during the past 20 years, Terra has significantly improved our knowledge of the Earth's climate and its implications on societies and ecosystems of human activity and natural disasters, including drought events. With Terra instrument's performance and the free distribution of its products, this study utilised Terra MOD13Q1 satellite data to assess drought disaster events and its spatiotemporal patterns over the Free State Province of South Africa between 2001 and 2019 for summer, autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The study also used high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCP). Three future periods comprising the short (the 2030s), medium (2040s), and long term (2050s) compared to the current period are analysed to understand the potential magnitude of projected climate change-related drought. The study revealed that the year 2001 and 2016 witnessed extreme drought conditions where the drought index is between 0 and 20% across the entire province during summer, while the year 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2015 observed severe drought conditions across the region with variation from one part to the another. The result shows that from -24.5 to -25.5 latitude, the area witnessed a decrease in precipitation (80 to 120mm) across the time slice and an increase in the latitude -26° to -28° S for summer seasons, which is more prominent in the year 2041 to 2050. This study emphasizes the strong spatio-environmental impacts within the province and highlights the associated factors that characterise high drought stress risk, especially on the environment and ecosystems. This study contributes to a disaster risk framework to identify areas for specific research and adaptation activities on drought disaster risk and for environmental planning in the study area, which is characterised by both rural and urban contexts, to address climate change-related drought impacts.

Keywords: remote sensing, drought disaster, climate scenario, assessment

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Authors: Ammar Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Ghammam Rim, Ezzi Olfa, Ben Cheikh Asma, Mahjoub Mohamed, Helali Radhia, Sma Nesrine, Chouchène Imed, Boussarsar Hamadi, Njah Mansour

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Background: Central venous catheter associated infections (CVC-AI) are among the serious hospital-acquired infections. The aims of this study are to determine the incidence of CVC-AI, and their risk factors among patients followed in a Tunisian medical intensive care unit (ICU). Materials / Methods: A prospective cohort study conducted between September 15th, 2015 and November 15th, 2016 in an 8-bed medical ICU including all patients admitted for more than 48h. CVC-AI were defined according to CDC of ATLANTA criteria. The enrollment was based on clinical and laboratory diagnosis of CVC-AI. For all subjects, age, sex, underlying diseases, SAPS II score, ICU length of stay, exposure to CVC (number of CVC placed, site of insertion and duration catheterization) were recorded. Risk factors were analyzed by conditional stepwise logistic regression. The p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: Among 192 eligible patients, 144 patients (75%) had a central venous catheter. Twenty-eight patients (19.4%) had developed CVC-AI with density rate incidence 20.02/1000 CVC-days. Among these infections, 60.7% (n=17) were systemic CVC-AI (with negative blood culture), and 35.7% (n=10) were bloodstream CVC-AI. The mean SAPS II of patients with CVC-AI was 32.76 14.48; their mean Charlson index was 1.77 1.55, their mean duration of catheterization was 15.46 10.81 days and the mean duration of one central line was 5.8+/-3.72 days. Gram-negative bacteria was determined in 53.5 % of CVC-AI (n= 15) dominated by multi-drug resistant Acinetobacter baumani (n=7). Staphylococci were isolated in 3 CVC-AI. Fourteen (50%) patients with CVC-AI died. Univariate analysis identified men (p=0.034), the referral from another hospital department (p=0.03), tobacco (p=0.006), duration of sedation (p=0.003) and the duration of catheterization (p=0), as possible risk factors of CVC-AI. Multivariate analysis showed that independent factors of CVC-AI were, male sex; OR= 5.73, IC 95% [2; 16.46], p=0.001, Ramsay score; OR= 1.57, IC 95% [1.036; 2.38], p=0.033, and duration of catheterization; OR=1.093, IC 95% [1.035; 1.15], p=0.001. Conclusion: In a monocenter cohort, CVC-AI had a high density and is associated with poor outcome. Identifying the risk factors is necessary to find solutions for this major health problem.

Keywords: central venous catheter associated infection, intensive care unit, prospective cohort studies, risk factors

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Authors: Ahmed Sami Hammami, Mohamed Jellazi

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Background: The aim of the study is to evaluate the magnitude of different psychological outcomes among Tunisian health care professionals (HCP) during the COVID-19 pandemic and to identify the associated factors. Methods: HCP completed a cross-sectional questionnaire from April 4th to April, 28th 2020. The survey collected demographic information, factors that may interfere with the psychological outcomes, behavior changes and mental health measurements. The latter was assessed through 3 scales; the 7-item questions Insomnia Severity Index, the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire and the 2-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify factors associated with psychological outcomes. Results: A total of 503 HCP successfully completed the survey; among those, n=493 consented to enroll in the study, 411 [83.4%] were physicians, 323 [64.2%] were women and 271 [55%] had a second-line working position. A significant proportion of HCP had anxiety 35.7%, depression 35.1% and insomnia 23.7%. Females, those with psychiatric history and those using public transport exhibited the highest proportions for overall symptoms compared to other groups e.g., depression among females vs. males: 44,9% vs. 18,2%, P=0.00. Those with a previous medical history and nurses, had more anxiety and insomnia compared to other groups e.g. anxiety among nurses vs. interns/residents vs. attending 45,1% vs 36,1% vs 27,5%; p=0.04. Multivariable logistic regression showed that female gender was a risk factor for all psychological outcomes e.g. female sex increased the odds of anxiety by 2.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1, 78-4, 60; P=0.00, whereas having a psychiatric history was a risk factor for both anxiety and insomnia. (e.g. for insomnia OR=2,86; 95% [CI], 1,78-4,60; P=0.00), Having protective equipment was associated with lower risk for depression (OR=0,41; 95% CI, 0,27-0,62; P=0.00) and anxiety. Physical activity was also protective against depression and anxiety (OR=0,41, 95% CI, 0,25-0,67, P=0.00). Conclusion: Psychological symptoms are usually undervalued among HCP, though the COVID-19 pandemic played a major role in exacerbating this burden. Prompt psychological support should be endorsed and simple measures such as physical activity and ensuring the necessary protection are paramount to improve mental health outcomes and the quality of care provided to patients.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, health care professionals, mental health, protective factors, psychological symptoms, risk factors

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