Search results for: Carlo Moreno

Authors: Ahmadur Rahman, Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ariful Islam

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In this article, we have estimated the parameters for the failure times of units based on the sampling technique adaptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring under the step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk. The failure times of the units are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the distribution and tampered coefficient. Confidence interval also obtained for the parameters. A simulation study is performed by using Monte Carlo Simulation method to check the authenticity of the model and its assumptions.

Keywords: adaptive type-I hybrid progressive censoring, competing risks, exponential distribution, simulation, step-stress partially accelerated life tests

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Authors: Petar Sarajcev, Josip Vasilj, Damir Jakus

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This paper presents a novel statistical description of the counterpoise effective length due to lightning surges, where the (impulse) effective length had been obtained by means of regressive formulas applied to the transient simulation results. The effective length is described in terms of a statistical distribution function, from which median, mean, variance, and other parameters of interest could be readily obtained. The influence of lightning current amplitude, lightning front duration, and soil resistivity on the effective length has been accounted for, assuming statistical nature of these parameters. A method for determining the optimal counterpoise length, in terms of the statistical impulse effective length, is also presented. It is based on estimating the number of dangerous events associated with lightning strikes. Proposed statistical description and the associated method provide valuable information which could aid the design engineer in optimising physical lengths of counterpoises in different grounding arrangements and soil resistivity situations.

Keywords: counterpoise, grounding conductor, effective length, lightning, Monte Carlo method, statistical distribution

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Authors: A. E. Dumitriu

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The LHCb experiment is situated at one of the four points around CERN’s Large Hadron Collider, being a single-arm forward spectrometer covering 10 mrad to 300 (250) mrad in the bending (non-bending) plane, designed primarily to study particles containing b and c quarks. Each one of LHCb’s sub-detectors specializes in measuring a different characteristic of the particles produced by colliding protons, its significant detection characteristics including a high precision tracking system and 2 ring-imaging Cherenkov detectors for particle identification. The major two topics that I am currently concerned in are: the RIVET project (Robust Independent Validation of Experiment and Theory) which is an efficient and portable tool kit of C++ class library useful for validation and tuning of Monte Carlo (MC) event generator models by providing a large collection of standard experimental analyses useful for High Energy Physics MC generator development, validation, tuning and regression testing and V0 analysis for 2013 LHCb NoBias type data (trigger on bunch + bunch crossing) at √s=2.76 TeV.

Keywords: LHCb physics, RIVET plug-in, RIVET, CERN

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Authors: Gema Gómez-Casado, Alba Rodríguez-Muñoz, Virginia Mela-Rivas, Pallavi Kompella, Francisco José Tinahones-Madueña, Isabel Moreno-Indias, Almudena Ortega-Gómez

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Obesity is a high-priority health problem worldwide due to its high prevalence. The proportion of obese and overweight subjects in industrialized countries exceeds half of the population in most cases. Beyond the metabolic problem, obesity boosts inflammation levels in the organism. The gut microbiota, considered an organ by itself, controls a high variety of processes at a systemic level. In fact, the microbiota interacts closely with the immune system, being crucial in determining the maturation state of neutrophils, key effectors of the innate immune response. It is known that changes in the diet exert strong effects on the variety and activity of the gut microbiota. The effect that those changes have on the axis microbiota-immune response is an unexplored field. In this study, 10 patients with obesity (weight 114,3 ± 14,5Kg, BMI 40,47±3,66) followed a Mediterranean-hypocaloric diet for 3 months, reducing their initial weight by 12,71 ± 3%. A transplant of microbiota from these patients before and after the diet was performed into wild type “germ-free” mice (n=10/group), treated with antibiotics. Six weeks after the transplant, mice were euthanized, and the presence of cells from the innate immune system were analysed in different organs (bone marrow, blood, spleen, visceral adipose tissue, and intestine) by flow cytometry. No differences were observed in the number of myeloid cells in bone marrow, blood, spleen, or visceral adipose tissue of mice transplanted with patient’s microbiota before and after following the Mediterranean diet. However, the intestine of mice that received post-diet microbiota presented a marked decrease in the number of neutrophils (whose presence is associated with tissue inflammation), as well as macrophages. In line with these findings, intestine monocytes from mice with post-diet microbiota showed a less inflammatory profile (lower Ly6Gˡᵒʷ proportion of cells). These results point toward a decrease in the inflammatory state of the intestinal tissue, derived from changes in the gut microbiota, which occurred after a 3-month Mediterranean diet.

Keywords: obesity, nutrition, Mediterranean diet, gut microbiota, immune system

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Authors: Patarawan Sangnawakij, Sa-Aat Niwitpong

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In this paper, we proposed two new confidence intervals for the difference of coefficients of variation, CIw and CIs, in two independent gamma distributions. These proposed confidence intervals using the close form method of variance estimation which was presented by Donner and Zou (2010) based on concept of Wald and Score confidence interval, respectively. Monte Carlo simulation study is used to evaluate the performance, coverage probability and expected length, of these confidence intervals. The results indicate that values of coverage probabilities of the new confidence interval based on Wald and Score are satisfied the nominal coverage and close to nominal level 0.95 in various situations, particularly, the former proposed confidence interval is better when sample sizes are small. Moreover, the expected lengths of the proposed confidence intervals are nearly difference when sample sizes are moderate to large. Therefore, in this study, the confidence interval for the difference of coefficients of variation which based on Wald is preferable than the other one confidence interval.

Keywords: confidence interval, score’s interval, wald’s interval, coefficient of variation, gamma distribution, simulation study

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Authors: Aurea C. L. Lacerda, Paulo R. H. Moreno, Bruna M. P. Vianna, Cristina H. R. Serra, Airton Martin, André R. Baby, Vladi O. Consiglieri, Telma M. Kaneko

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The modified Franz cell is the most widely used model for in vitro permeation studies, however it still presents some disadvantages. Thus, some alternative methods have been developed such as Skin PAMPA, which is a bio- artificial membrane that has been applied for skin penetration estimation of xenobiotics based on HT permeability model consisting. Skin PAMPA greatest advantage is to carry out more tests, in a fast and inexpensive way. The membrane system mimics the stratum corneum characteristics, which is the primary skin barrier. The barrier properties are given by corneocytes embedded in a multilamellar lipid matrix. This layer is the main penetration route through the paracellular permeation pathway and it consists of a mixture of cholesterol, ceramides, and fatty acids as the dominant components. However, there is no consensus on the membrane composition. The objective of this work was to compare the performance among different bio-artificial membranes for studying the permeation in skin PAMPA system. Material and methods: In order to mimetize the lipid composition`s present in the human stratum corneum six membranes were developed. The membrane composition was equimolar mixture of cholesterol, ceramides 1-O-C18:1, C22, and C20, plus fatty acids C20 and C24. The membrane integrity assay was based on the transport of Brilliant Cresyl Blue, which has a low permeability; and Lucifer Yellow with very poor permeability and should effectively be completely rejected. The membrane characterization was performed using Confocal Laser Raman Spectroscopy, using stabilized laser at 785 nm with 10 second integration time and 2 accumulations. The membrane behaviour results on the PAMPA system were statistically evaluated and all of the compositions have shown integrity and permeability. The confocal Raman spectra were obtained in the region of 800-1200 cm-1 that is associated with the C-C stretches of the carbon scaffold from the stratum corneum lipids showed similar pattern for all the membranes. The ceramides, long chain fatty acids and cholesterol in equimolar ratio permitted to obtain lipid mixtures with self-organization capability, similar to that occurring into the stratum corneum. Conclusion: The artificial biological membranes studied for Skin PAMPA showed to be similar and with comparable properties to the stratum corneum.

Keywords: bio-artificial membranes, comparison, confocal Raman, skin PAMPA

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Authors: Felipe Riveros, Ricardo Alvarez, Claudia Rahmann, Rodrigo Moreno

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Around the world, many countries have committed to a decarbonization of their electricity system. Under this global drive, converter-interfaced generators (CIG) such as wind and photovoltaic generation appear as cornerstones to achieve these energy targets. Despite its benefits, an increasing use of CIG brings several technical challenges in power systems, especially from a stability viewpoint. Among the key differences are limited short circuit current capacity, inertia-less characteristic of CIG, and response times within the electromagnetic timescale. Along with the integration of CIG into the power system, one enabling technology for the energy transition towards low-carbon power systems is battery energy storage systems (BESS). Because of the flexibility that BESS provides in power system operation, its integration allows for mitigating the variability and uncertainty of renewable energies, thus optimizing the use of existing assets and reducing operational costs. Another characteristic of BESS is that they can also support power system stability by injecting reactive power during the fault, providing short circuit currents, and delivering fast frequency response. However, most methodologies for sizing and allocating BESS in power systems are based on economic aspects and do not exploit the benefits that BESSs can offer to system stability. In this context, this paper presents a methodology for determining the optimal allocation of battery energy storage systems (BESS) in weak power systems with high levels of CIG. Unlike traditional economic approaches, this methodology incorporates stability constraints to allocate BESS, aiming to mitigate instability issues arising from weak grid conditions with low short-circuit levels. The proposed methodology offers valuable insights for power system engineers and planners seeking to maintain grid stability while harnessing the benefits of renewable energy integration. The methodology is validated in the reduced Chilean electrical system. The results show that integrating BESS into a power system with high levels of CIG with stability criteria contributes to decarbonizing and strengthening the network in a cost-effective way while sustaining system stability. This paper potentially lays the foundation for understanding the benefits of integrating BESS in electrical power systems and coordinating their placements in future converter-dominated power systems.

Keywords: battery energy storage, power system stability, system strength, weak power system

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Authors: Antonio Casero Martínez, María de Lluch Rayo Llinas

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This work is part of an investigation into the relationship between romantic love and self-esteem in college students, performed by the students of matter "methods and techniques of social research", of the Master Gender at the University of Balearic Islands, during 2014-2015. In particular, we have investigated the relationships that may exist between self-esteem, gender and field of study. They are known as gender differences in self-esteem, and the relationship between gender and branch of study observed annually by the distribution of enrolment in universities. Therefore, in this part of the study, we focused the spotlight on the differences in self-esteem between the sexes through the various branches of study. The study sample consists of 726 individuals (304 men and 422 women) from 30 undergraduate degrees that the University of the Balearic Islands offers on its campus in 2014-2015, academic year. The average age of men was 21.9 years and 21.7 years for women. The sampling procedure used was random sampling stratified by degree, simple affixation, giving a sampling error of 3.6% for the whole sample, with a confidence level of 95% under the most unfavorable situation (p = q). The Spanish translation of the Rosenberg Self-Esteen Scale (RSE), by Atienza, Moreno and Balaguer was applied. The psychometric properties of translation reach a test-retest reliability of 0.80 and an internal consistency between 0.76 and 0.87. In this paper we have obtained an internal consistency of 0.82. The results confirm the expected differences in self-esteem by gender, although not in all branches of study. Mean levels of self-esteem in women are lower in all branches of study, reaching statistical significance in the field of Science, Social Sciences and Law, and Engineering and Architecture. However, analysed the variability of self-esteem by the branch of study within each gender, the results show independence in the case of men, whereas in the case of women find statistically significant differences, arising from lower self-esteem of Arts and Humanities students vs. the Social and legal Sciences students. These findings confirm the results of numerous investigations in which the levels of female self-esteem appears always below the male, suggesting that perhaps we should consider separately the two populations rather than continually emphasize the difference. The branch of study, for its part has not appeared as an explanatory factor of relevance, beyond detected the largest absolute difference between gender in the technical branch, one in which women are historically a minority, ergo, are no disciplinary or academic characteristics which would explain the differences, but the differentiated social context that occurs within it.

Keywords: study branch, gender, self-esteem, applied psychology

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Authors: Z. Sakka, I. Assakkaf, T. Al-Yaqoub, J. Parol

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A reliability-based methodology for the analysis assessment and evaluation of reinforced concrete structural elements of concrete structures is presented herein. The results of the reliability analysis and assessment for structural elements are verified by the results obtained from the deterministic methods. The analysis outcomes of reliability-based analysis are compared against the safety limits of the required reliability index β according to international standards and codes. The methodology is based on probabilistic analysis using reliability concepts and statistics of the main random variables that are relevant to the subject matter, and for which they are to be used in the performance-function equation(s) related to the structural elements under study. These methodology techniques can result in reliability index β, which is commonly known as the reliability index or reliability measure value that can be utilized to assess and evaluate the safety, human risk, and functionality of the structural component. Also, these methods can result in revised partial safety factor values for certain target reliability indices that can be used for the purpose of redesigning the reinforced concrete elements of the building and in which they could assist in considering some other remedial actions to improve the safety and functionality of the member.

Keywords: structural reliability, concrete structures, FORM, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Emilia Olivos, R. Arroyave, A. Vargas-Calderon, J. E. Dominguez-Herrera

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More efficient cooling systems are needed to reduce building energy consumption and environmental impact. At present researchers focus mainly on environmentally-friendly magnetic materials and the potential application in cooling devices. The magnetic materials presented in this project belong to a group known as Heusler alloys. These compounds are characterized by a strong coupling between their structure and magnetic properties. Usually, a change in one of them can alter the other, which implies changes in other electronic or structural properties, such as, shape magnetic memory response or the magnetocaloric effect. Those properties and its dependence with external fields make these materials interesting, both from a fundamental point of view, as well as on their different possible applications. In this work, first principles and Monte Carlo simulations have been used to calculate exchange couplings and magnetic properties as a function of an applied magnetic field on Heusler alloys. As a result, we found a large dependence of the magnetic susceptibility, entropy and heat capacity, indicating that the magnetic field can be used in experiments to trigger particular magnetic properties in materials, which are necessary to develop solid-state refrigeration devices.

Keywords: ferromagnetic materials, magnetocaloric effect, materials design, solid state refrigeration

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Authors: M. Seguini, D. Nedjar

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In this paper, the nonlinear analysis of Timoshenko beam undergoing moderate large deflections and resting on nonlinear two-parameter random foundation is presented, taking into account the effects of shear deformation, beam’s properties variation and the spatial variability of soil characteristics. The finite element probabilistic analysis has been performed by using Timoshenko beam theory with the Von Kàrmàn nonlinear strain-displacement relationships combined to Vanmarcke theory and Monte Carlo simulations, which is implemented in a Matlab program. Numerical examples of the newly developed model is conducted to confirm the efficiency and accuracy of this later and the importance of accounting for the foundation second parameter (Winkler-Pasternak). Thus, the results obtained from the developed model are presented and compared with those available in the literature to examine how the consideration of the shear and spatial variability of soil’s characteristics affects the response of the system.

Keywords: nonlinear analysis, soil-structure interaction, large deflection, Timoshenko beam, Euler-Bernoulli beam, Winkler foundation, Pasternak foundation, spatial variability

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Authors: Dave Kenneth Tayao Cayado, Carlo P. Magno

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The most common source of bias detected are those of gender and socioeconomic status. The present study investigated the Differential Item Functioning (DIF) or item bias between public and private school students in a vocabulary test. Studies on DIF were expanded by using the type of school as a source of bias. There were 200 participants in this study. 100 came from a public secondary school and 100 came from a private secondary school. The vocabulary skills of students were measured using a standardized vocabulary test for grade 7 students. Using DIF, specifically the Rasch-Welch approach, it was found that out of 24 items, 12 were biased for a specific group. The vocabulary skills on the use of slang, idiomatic expression, personification, collocations, and partitive relations were biased for private schools while the use of slang and homonymous words were biased for public school students. The analysis debunked the trend that private school students are outperforming public school students in terms of academic achievement. It was revealed that there are some competencies that private school students are having difficulty and vice versa.

Keywords: differential item functioning, item bias, public school students, private school students, vocabulary

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Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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Authors: Dave Kenneth Tayao Cayado, Carlo P. Magno, Venice Cristine Dangaran

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The present study determines whether there will be differences in the self-regulation dispositions that learners utilize when writing different types of composition. There were 7 self-regulation factors that were used to develop a scale in this study such as memory strategy, goal setting, self-evaluation, seeking assistance, learning responsibility, environmental structuring, and organizing. The scale was made specific for writing a composition. The researcher-made scale was administered to 150 participants who all came from a university in the Philippines. The participants were asked to write two compositions namely opinion essay and research introduction/review of related literature. The zero-order correlation revealed that all the factors of self-regulation are correlated with one another. However, only seeking assistance and self-evaluation are correlated with opinion essay and technical writing is not correlated to any of the self-regulation factors. However, when path analysis was used, it was shown that seeking assistance can predict opinion essay scores whereas memory strategy, self-evaluation, and organizing can predict technical writing scores.

Keywords: opinion essay, self-regulation, technical writing, writing skills

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Authors: Zhengkun Guo, Yanbin Li, Wenqing Wang, Bo Zou

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The statically fused converted position and doppler measurements Kalman filter (SF-CMKF) with additive debiased measurement conversion has been previously presented to combine the resulting states of converted position measurements Kalman filter (CPMKF) and converted doppler measurement Kalman filter (CDMKF) to yield the final state estimates under minimum mean squared error (MMSE) criterion. However, the exact compensation for the bias in the polar-to-cartesian and spherical-to-cartesian conversion are multiplicative and depend on the statistics of the cosine of the angle measurement errors. As a result, the consistency and performance of the SF-CMKF may be suboptimal in large-angle error situations. In this paper, the multiplicative unbiased position and Doppler measurement conversion for 2D (polar-to-cartesian) tracking are derived, and the SF-CMKF is improved to use those conversions. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to demonstrate the statistical consistency of the multiplicative unbiased conversion and the superior performance of the modified SF-CMKF (SF-UCMKF).

Keywords: measurement conversion, Doppler, Kalman filter, estimation, tracking

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Authors: Alberto Abello Moreno-Cid

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Mummification was the process through which immortality was granted to the deceased, so it was of extreme importance to the Egyptians. The techniques of embalming had evolved over the centuries, and specialists created increasingly sophisticated tools. However, due to its eminently religious nature, knowledge about everything related to this practice was jealously preserved, and the testimonies that have survived to our time are scarce. For this reason, embalming instruments found in archaeological excavations are uncommon. The tomb of the Vizier Amenhotep Huy (AT No. -28-), located in the el-Assasif necropolis that is being excavated since 2009 by the team of the Institute of Ancient Egyptian Studies, has been the scene of some discoveries of this type that evidences the existence of mummification practices in this place after the New Kingdom. The clysters or enemas are the fundamental tools in the second type of mummification described by the historian Herodotus to introduce caustic solutions inside the body of the deceased. Nevertheless, such objects only have been found in three locations: the tomb of Ankh-Hor in Luxor, where a copper enema belonged to the prophet of Ammon Uah-ib-Ra came to light; the excavation of the tomb of Menekh-ib-Nekau in Abusir, where was also found one made of copper; and the excavations in the Bucheum, where two more artifacts were discovered, also made of copper but in different shapes and sizes. Both of them were used for the mummification of sacred animals and this is the reason they vary significantly. Therefore, the object found in the tomb No. -28-, is the first known made of faience of all these peculiar tools and the oldest known until now, dated in the Third Intermediate Period (circa 1070-650 B.C.). This paper bases its investigation on the study of those parallelisms, the material, the current archaeological context and the full analysis and reconstruction of the object in question. The key point is the use of faience in the production of this item: creating a device intended to be in constant use seems to be a first illogical compared to other samples made of copper. Faience around the area of Deir el-Bahari had a strong religious component, associated with solar myths and principles of the resurrection, connected to the Osirian that characterises the mummification procedure. The study allows to refute some of the premises which are held unalterable in Egyptology, verifying the utilization of these sort of pieces, understanding its way of use and showing that this type of mummification was also applied to the highest social stratum, in which case the tools were thought out of an exceptional quality and religious symbolism.

Keywords: clyster, el-Assasif, embalming, faience enema mummification, Theban necropolis

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Authors: W. K. Zahra, M. A. El-Beltagy, R. R. Elkhadrawy

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So many practical problems in science and technology developed over the past decays. For instance, the mathematical boundary layer theory or the approximation of solution for different problems described by differential equations. When such problems consider large or small parameters, they become increasingly complex and therefore require the use of asymptotic methods. In this work, we consider the singularly perturbed boundary value problems which contain very small parameters. Moreover, we will consider these perturbation parameters as random variables. We propose a numerical method to solve this kind of problems. The proposed method is based on an exponential spline, Shishkin mesh discretization, and polynomial chaos expansion. The polynomial chaos expansion is used to handle the randomness exist in the perturbation parameter. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) are used to validate the solution and the accuracy of the proposed method. Numerical results are provided to show the applicability and efficiency of the proposed method, which maintains a very remarkable high accuracy and it is ε-uniform convergence of almost second order.

Keywords: singular perturbation problem, polynomial chaos expansion, Shishkin mesh, two small parameters, exponential spline

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Authors: Hamed Afrasiab, Saeed Khodaygan

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Prediction of machining process capability in the design stage plays a key role to reach the precision design and manufacturing of mechanical products. Inaccuracies in machining process lead to errors in position and orientation of machined features on the part, and strongly affect the process capability in the final quality of the product. In this paper, an efficient systematic approach is given to investigate the machining errors to predict the manufacturing errors of the parts and capability prediction of corresponding machining processes. A mathematical formulation of fixture locators modeling is presented to establish the relationship between the part errors and the related sources. Based on this method, the final machining errors of the part can be accurately estimated by relating them to the combined dimensional and geometric tolerances of the workpiece – fixture system. This method is developed for uncertainty analysis based on the Worst Case and statistical approaches. The application of the presented method is illustrated through presenting an example and the computational results are compared with the Monte Carlo simulation results.

Keywords: process capability, machining error, dimensional and geometrical tolerances, uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Catherine Vasnetsov, Victor Vasnetsov

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Context: Thermo-responsive polymers are materials that undergo significant changes in their physical properties in response to temperature changes. These polymers have gained significant attention in research due to their potential applications in various industries and medicine. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying their behavior are not well understood, particularly in relation to cosolvency, which is crucial for practical applications. Research Aim: This study aimed to theoretically investigate the phenomenon of cosolvency in long-chain polymers using the Flory-Huggins statistical-mechanical framework. The main objective was to understand the interactions between the polymer, solvent, and cosolvent under different conditions. Methodology: The research employed a combination of Monte Carlo computer simulations and advanced machine-learning methods. The Flory-Huggins mean field theory was used as the basis for the simulations. Spinodal graphs and ternary plots were utilized to develop an initial computer model for predicting polymer behavior. Molecular dynamic simulations were conducted to mimic real-life polymer systems. Machine learning techniques were incorporated to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the simulations. Findings: The simulations revealed that the addition of very low or very high volumes of cosolvent molecules resulted in smaller radii of gyration for the polymer, indicating poor miscibility. However, intermediate volume fractions of cosolvent led to higher radii of gyration, suggesting improved miscibility. These findings provide a possible microscopic explanation for the cosolvency phenomenon in polymer systems. Theoretical Importance: This research contributes to a better understanding of the behavior of thermo-responsive polymers and the role of cosolvency. The findings provide insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying cosolvency and offer specific predictions for future experimental investigations. The study also presents a more rigorous analysis of the Flory-Huggins free energy theory in the context of polymer systems. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The data for this study was collected through Monte Carlo computer simulations and molecular dynamic simulations. The interactions between the polymer, solvent, and cosolvent were analyzed using the Flory-Huggins mean field theory. Machine learning techniques were employed to enhance the accuracy of the simulations. The collected data was then analyzed to determine the impact of cosolvent volume fractions on the radii of gyration of the polymer. Question Addressed: The research addressed the question of how cosolvency affects the behavior of long-chain polymers. Specifically, the study aimed to investigate the interactions between the polymer, solvent, and cosolvent under different volume fractions and understand the resulting changes in the radii of gyration. Conclusion: In conclusion, this study utilized theoretical modeling and computer simulations to investigate the phenomenon of cosolvency in long-chain polymers. The findings suggest that moderate cosolvent volume fractions can lead to improved miscibility, as indicated by higher radii of gyration. These insights contribute to a better understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying cosolvency in polymer systems and provide predictions for future experimental studies. The research also enhances the theoretical analysis of the Flory-Huggins free energy theory.

Keywords: molecular modelling, flory-huggins, cosolvency, stimuli-responsive polymers

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Authors: Amir Moslehi, Gholamreza Raisali

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Microdosimetric detectors based on multiple-thick gas electron multiplier (multiple-THGEM) configurations are being used in various fields of radiation protection and dosimetry. In the present work, microdosimetric response of these detectors to fast neutrons has been investigated by Monte Carlo method. Three similar microdosimeters made of A-150 and rexolite as the wall materials are designed; the first based on single-THGEM, the second based on double-THGEM and the third is based on triple-THGEM. Sensitive volume of the three microdosimeters is a right cylinder of 5 mm height and diameter which is filled with the propane-based tissue-equivalent (TE) gas. The TE gas with 0.11 atm pressure at the room temperature simulates 1 µm of tissue. Lineal energy distributions for several neutron energies from 10 keV to 14 MeV including 241Am-Be neutrons are calculated by the Geant4 simulation toolkit. Also, mean quality factor and dose-equivalent value for any neutron energy has been determined by these distributions. Obtained data derived from the three microdosimeters are in agreement. Therefore, we conclude that the multiple-THGEM structures present similar microdosimetric responses to fast neutrons.

Keywords: fast neutrons, geant4, multiple-thick gas electron multiplier, microdosimeter

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization

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Authors: Alexander de Tomás, Miquel Sierra, Stefan Pfenninger, Francesco Lombardi, Ines Campos, Cristina Madrid

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Environmental parameters are key in the definition of sustainable energy systems yet excluded from most energy system optimization models. Still, decision-making may be misleading without considering them. Environmental analyses of the energy transition are a key part of industrial ecology but often are performed without any input from the users of the information. This work assesses the systemic impacts of energy transition pathways in Portugal. Using the Calliope energy modeling framework, 250+ optimized energy system pathways are generated. A Delphi study helps to identify the relevant criteria for the stakeholders as regards the environmental assessment, which is performed with ENBIOS, a python package that integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) with a metabolic analysis based on complex relations. Furthermore, this study focuses on how the uncertainty propagates through the model’s consortium. With the aim of doing so, a soft link between the Calliope/ENBIOS cascade and Brightway’s data capabilities is built to perform Monte Carlo simulations. These findings highlight the relevance of including uncertainty analysis as a range of values rather than informing energy transition results with a single value.

Keywords: energy transition, energy modeling, uncertainty, sustainability

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Authors: Rajesh Singh, Kailash Kale

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In this paper, the Binomial process type occurrence of software failures is considered and failure intensity has been characterized by one parameter Rayleigh class Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM). The proposed SRGM is mathematical function of parameters namely; total number of failures i.e. η-0 and scale parameter i.e. η-1. It is assumed that very little or no information is available about both these parameters and then considering non-informative priors for both these parameters, the Bayes estimators for the parameters η-0 and η-1 have been obtained under square error loss function. The proposed Bayes estimators are compared with their corresponding maximum likelihood estimators on the basis of risk efficiencies obtained by Monte Carlo simulation technique. It is concluded that both the proposed Bayes estimators of total number of failures and scale parameter perform well for proper choice of execution time.

Keywords: binomial process, non-informative prior, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), rayleigh class, software reliability growth model (SRGM)

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Authors: José Ramón López-Mínguez, Estrella Suárez-Corchuelo, Sergio López-Tejero, Luis Nombela-Franco, Xavier Freixa-Rofastes, Guillermo Bastos-Fernández, Xavier Millán-Álvarez, Raúl Moreno-Gómez, José Antonio Fernández-Díaz, Ignacio Amat-Santos, Tomás Benito-González, Fernando Alfonso-Manterola, Pablo Salinas-Sanguino, Pedro Cepas-Guillén, Dabit Arzamendi, Ignacio Cruz-González, Juan Manuel Nogales-Asensio

Abstract:

Background and objectives: The treatment of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) who need coronary stenting is challenging. The objective of the study was to determine whether left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) could be a feasible option and benefit these patients. To this end, we studied the impact of LAAO plus antiplatelet drugs vs oral anticoagulants (OAC) (including direct OAC) plus antiplatelet drugs in these patients’ long-term outcomes. Methods: The results of 207 consecutive patients with NVAF who underwent coronary stenting were analyzed. A total of 146 patients were treated with OAC (75 with acenocoumarol, 71 with direct OAC) while 61 underwent LAAO. The median follow-up was 35 months. Patients also received antiplatelet therapy as prescribed by their cardiologist. The study received the proper ethical oversight. Results: Age (mean 75.7 years), and the past medical history of stroke were similar in both groups. However, the LAAO group had more unfavorable characteristics (history of coronary artery disease [CHA2DS2-VASc], and significant bleeding [BARC ≥ 2] and HAS-BLED). The occurrence of major adverse events (death, stroke/transient ischemic events, major bleeding) and major cardiovascular events (cardiac death, stroke/transient ischemic attack, and myocardial infarction) were significantly higher in the OAC group compared to the LAAO group: 19.75% vs 9.06% (HR, 2.18; P = .008) and 6.37% vs 1.91% (HR, 3.34; P = .037), respectively. Conclusions: In patients with NVAF undergoing coronary stenting, LAAO plus antiplatelet therapy produced better long-term outcomes compared to treatment with OAC plus antiplatelet therapy despite the unfavorable baseline characteristics of the LAAO group.

Keywords: stents, atrial fibrillation, anticoagulants, left atrial appendage occlusion

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Authors: Ashwani Kumar Aggarwal

Abstract:

NIR Light is non-ionizing and can pass easily through living tissues such as breast without any harmful effects. Therefore, use of NIR light for imaging the biological tissue and to quantify its optical properties is a good choice over other invasive methods. Optical tomography involves two steps. One is the forward problem and the other is the reconstruction problem. The forward problem consists of finding the measurements of transmitted light through the tissue from source to detector, given the spatial distribution of absorption and scattering properties. The second step is the reconstruction problem. In X-ray tomography, there is standard method for reconstruction called filtered back projection method or the algebraic reconstruction methods. But this method cannot be applied as such, in optical tomography due to highly scattering nature of biological tissue. A hybrid algorithm for reconstruction has been implemented in this work which takes into account the highly scattered path taken by photons while back projecting the forward data obtained during Monte Carlo simulation. The reconstructed image suffers from blurring due to point spread function. This blurred reconstructed image has been enhanced using a digital filter which is optimal in mean square sense.

Keywords: least-squares optimization, filtering, tomography, laser interaction, light scattering

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Authors: Juan F. Muñoz-Rosas, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Encarnación Álvarez-Verdejo, Pablo J. Moya-Fernández

Abstract:

Poverty measurement is a very important topic in many studies in social sciences. One of the most important indicators when measuring poverty is the low income proportion. This indicator gives the proportion of people of a population classified as poor. This indicator is generally unknown, and for this reason, it is estimated by using survey data, which are obtained by official surveys carried out by many statistical agencies such as Eurostat. The main feature of the mentioned survey data is the fact that they contain several variables. The variable used to estimate the low income proportion is called as the variable of interest. The survey data may contain several additional variables, also named as the auxiliary variables, related to the variable of interest, and if this is the situation, they could be used to improve the estimation of the low income proportion. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo simulation studies to analyze numerically the performance of estimators based on several auxiliary variables. In this simulation study, we considered real data sets obtained from the 2011 European Union Survey on Income and Living Condition. Results derived from this study indicate that the estimators based on auxiliary variables are more accurate than the naive estimator.

Keywords: inclusion probability, poverty, poverty line, survey sampling

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Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Keywords: cause of failure, linear degradation path, reliability function, expectation-maximization algorithm, intensity, masked data

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Authors: Ridoy Das, Myriam Neaimeh, Yue Wang, Ghanim Putrus

Abstract:

Electric vehicles are a popular transportation medium renowned for potential environmental benefits. However, large and uncontrolled charging volumes can impact distribution networks negatively. Smart charging is widely recognized as an efficient solution to achieve both improved renewable energy integration and grid relief. Nevertheless, different decision-makers may pursue diverse and conflicting objectives. In this context, this paper proposes a multi-objective optimization framework to control electric vehicle charging to achieve both energy cost reduction and peak shaving. A weighted-sum method is developed due to its intuitiveness and efficiency. Monte Carlo simulations are implemented to investigate the impact of uncertain electric vehicle driving patterns and provide decision-makers with a robust outcome in terms of prospective cost and network loading. The results demonstrate that there is a conflict between energy cost efficiency and peak shaving, with the decision-makers needing to make a collaborative decision.

Keywords: electric vehicles, multi-objective optimization, uncertainty, mixed integer linear programming

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Authors: Tais Basaco, Stefanie Pektor, Josue A. Moreno, Matthias Miederer, Andreas Türler

Abstract:

Radiopharmaceuticals based in monoclonal anti-body (mAb) via chemical linkers have become a potential tool in nuclear medicine because of their specificity and the large variability and availability of therapeutic radiometals. It is important to identify the conjugation sites and number of attached chelator to mAb to obtain radioimmunoconjugates with required immunoreactivity and radiostability. Girentuximab antibody (G250) is a potential candidate for radioimmunotherapy of clear cell carcinomas (RCCs) because it is reactive with CAIX antigen, a transmembrane glycoprotein overexpressed on the cell surface of most ( > 90%) (RCCs). G250 was conjugated with the bifunctional chelating agent DOTA (1,4,7,10-Tetraazacyclododecane-N,N’,N’’,N’’’-tetraacetic acid) via a benzyl-thiocyano group as a linker (p-SCN-Bn-DOTA). DOTA-G250 conjugates were analyzed by size exclusion chromatography (SE-HPLC) and by electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE). The potential site-specific conjugation was identified by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC/MS-MS) and the number of linkers per molecule of mAb was calculated using the molecular weight (MW) measured by matrix assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). The average number obtained in the conjugates in non-reduced conditions was between 8-10 molecules of DOTA per molecule of mAb. The average number obtained in the conjugates in reduced conditions was between 1-2 and 3-4 molecules of DOTA per molecule of mAb in the light chain (LC) and heavy chain (HC) respectively. Potential DOTA modification sites of the chelator were identified in lysine residues. The biological activity of the conjugates was evaluated by flow cytometry (FACS) using CAIX negative (SKRC-18) and CAIX positive (SKRC-52). The DOTA-G250 conjugates were labelled with 177Lu with a radiochemical yield > 95% reaching specific activities of 12 MBq/µg. The stability in vitro of different types of radioconstructs was analyzed in human serum albumin (HSA). The radiostability of 177Lu-DOTA-G250 at high specific activity was increased by addition of sodium ascorbate after the labelling. The immunoreactivity was evaluated in vitro and in vivo. Binding to CAIX positive cells (SK-RC-52) at different specific activities was higher for conjugates with less DOTA content. Protein dose was optimized in mice with subcutaneously growing SK-RC-52 tumors using different amounts of 177Lu- DOTA-G250.

Keywords: mass spectrometry, monoclonal antibody, radiopharmaceuticals, radioimmunotheray, renal cancer

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Authors: Liliana Villavicencio, Yohn Garcia, Pallavi Singh, Luis Fernando Cruz, Wilfrido Moreno

Abstract:

Psychophysiological adaptive automation is a concept that combines human physiological data and computer algorithms to create personalized interfaces and experiences for users. This approach aims to enhance human learning by adapting to individual needs and preferences and optimizing the interaction between humans and machines. According to neurosciences, the working memory demand during the student learning process is modified when the student is learning a new subject or topic, managing and/or fulfilling a specific task goal. A sudden increase in working memory demand modifies the level of students’ attention, engagement, and cognitive load. The proposed psychophysiological adaptive automation system will adapt the task requirements to optimize cognitive load, the process output variable, by monitoring the student's brain activity. Cognitive load changes according to the student’s previous knowledge, the type of task, the difficulty level of the task, and the overall psychophysiological state of the student. Scaling the measured cognitive load as low, medium, or high; the system will assign a task difficulty level to the next task according to the ratio between the previous-task difficulty level and student stress. For instance, if a student becomes stressed or overwhelmed during a particular task, the system detects this through signal measurements such as brain waves, heart rate variability, or any other psychophysiological variables analyzed to adjust the task difficulty level. The control of engagement and stress are considered internal variables for the hypermedia system which selects between three different types of instructional material. This work assesses the feasibility of a fuzzy controller to track a student's physiological responses and adjust the learning content and pace accordingly. Using an industrial automation approach, the proposed fuzzy logic controller is based on linguistic rules that complement the instrumentation of the system to monitor and control the delivery of instructional material to the students. From the test results, it can be proved that the implemented fuzzy controller can satisfactorily regulate the delivery of academic content based on the working memory demand without compromising students’ health. This work has a potential application in the instructional design of virtual reality environments for training and education.

Keywords: fuzzy logic controller, hypermedia control system, personalized education, psychophysiological adaptive automation

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