Search results for: Afroza Khatun
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13

Search results for: Afroza Khatun

13 Assessment of Microbiological Status of Branded and Street Vended Ice-Cream Offered for Public Consumption: A Comparative Study in Tangail Municipality, Bangladesh

Authors: Afroza Khatun, Masuma, Md. Younus Mia, Kamal Kanta Das

Abstract:

Analysis of the microbial status and physicochemical parameters of some branded and street vended ice cream showed that total viable bacteria in branded ice cream ranged from 4.8×10³ to 1.10×10⁵ cfu/ml, and in street vended ice-cream ranged from 7.5×10⁴ to 1.6×10⁸ cfu/ml. Total coliform bacteria present up to 9.20×10³ cfu/ml in branded ice cream and 5.3×10³ to 9.6×10⁶ cfu/ml observed in street vended ice cream. Total E. coli were found to be present within a range from 0 to 4.5×10³ cfu/ml in branded and 4.1×10² to 7.5×10⁴ cfu/ml in street ice cream. The ranges of Staphylococcus aureus count were 1.8×10² to 2.9×10⁴ cfu/ml (branded) and 3.9×10⁴ to 7.9×10⁶ cfu/ml (street). The pH of both types of ice cream showed acidic to neutral conditions where the concentration of pH for branded ice cream was 5.5 to 6.9, as well as the value of pH in street ice cream, was 6.2 to 7.0. The range of Total soluble solids in several branded ice creams was 26 to 29%, and the value of TSS obtained in street-vended ice-creams ranged from 5 to 10%. The overall results of this research demonstrated that the microbial quality in all street ice creams exceeded the BSTI standard and exhibited lower quality than the industrially produced branded ice creams due to comparatively faulty manufacturing processes and poor hygiene practices. The presence of pathogenic microbes was also observed in branded ice creams which was quite alarming for public health. So it is suggested that the government authorized organization should conduct the proper monitoring system to ensure that both branded and street vended ice-creams are microbiologically safe to prevent public health hazards.

Keywords: food safety, microbiological analysis, physicochemical, ice-cream, E. coli, Staphylococcus aureus

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12 A Statistical Study on Young UAE Driver’s Behavior towards Road Safety

Authors: Sadia Afroza, Rakiba Rouf

Abstract:

Road safety and associated behaviors have received significant attention in recent years, reflecting general public concern. This paper portrays a statistical scenario of the young drivers in UAE with emphasis on various concern points of young driver’s behavior and license issuance. Although there are many factors contributing to road accidents, statistically it is evident that age plays a major role in road accidents. Despite ensuring strict road safety laws enforced by the UAE government, there is a staggering correlation among road accidents and young driver’s at UAE. However, private organizations like BMW and RoadSafetyUAE have extended its support on conducting surveys on driver’s behavior with an aim to ensure road safety. Various strategies such as road safety law enforcement, license issuance, adapting new technologies like safety cameras and raising awareness can be implemented to improve the road safety concerns among young drivers.

Keywords: driving behavior, Graduated Driver Licensing System (GLDS), road safety, UAE drivers, young drivers

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11 Use of Oral Communication Strategies: A Study of Bangladeshi EFL Learners at the Graduate Level

Authors: Afroza Akhter Tina

Abstract:

This paper reports on an investigation into the use of specific types of oral communication strategies, namely ‘topic avoidance’, ‘message abandonment’, ‘code-switching’, ‘paraphrasing’, ‘restructuring’, and ‘stalling’ by Bangladeshi EFL learners at the graduate level. It chiefly considers the frequency of using these strategies as well as the students and teachers attitudes toward such uses. The participants of this study are 66 EFL students and 12 EFL teachers of Jahangirnagar University. Data was collected through questionnaire, oral interview, and classroom observation form. The findings reveal that the EFL students tried to employ all the strategies to various extents due to the language difficulties they encountered in their oral English performance. Among them, the mostly used strategy was ‘stalling’ or the use of fillers, followed by ‘code-switching’. The least used strategies were ‘topic avoidance’, ‘restructuring’, and ‘paraphrasing’. The findings indicate that the use of such strategies was related to the contexts of situation and data-elicitation tasks. It also reveals that the students were not formally trained to use the strategies though the majority of the teachers and students acknowledge them as helpful in communication. Finally the study suggests that an awareness of the nature and functions of these strategies can contribute to the overall improvement of the learners’ communicative competence in spoken English.

Keywords: communicative strategies, competency, attitude, frequency

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10 Suppression Subtractive Hybridization Technique for Identification of the Differentially Expressed Genes

Authors: Tuhina-khatun, Mohamed Hanafi Musa, Mohd Rafii Yosup, Wong Mui Yun, Aktar-uz-Zaman, Mahbod Sahebi

Abstract:

Suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) method is valuable tool for identifying differentially regulated genes in disease specific or tissue specific genes important for cellular growth and differentiation. It is a widely used method for separating DNA molecules that distinguish two closely related DNA samples. SSH is one of the most powerful and popular methods for generating subtracted cDNA or genomic DNA libraries. It is based primarily on a suppression polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique and combines normalization and subtraction in a solitary procedure. The normalization step equalizes the abundance of DNA fragments within the target population, and the subtraction step excludes sequences that are common to the populations being compared. This dramatically increases the probability of obtaining low-abundance differentially expressed cDNAs or genomic DNA fragments and simplifies analysis of the subtracted library. SSH technique is applicable to many comparative and functional genetic studies for the identification of disease, developmental, tissue specific, or other differentially expressed genes, as well as for the recovery of genomic DNA fragments distinguishing the samples under comparison.

Keywords: suppression subtractive hybridization, differentially expressed genes, disease specific genes, tissue specific genes

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9 Heritability and Diversity Analysis of Blast Resistant Upland Rice Genotypes Based on Quantitative Traits

Authors: Mst. Tuhina-Khatun, Mohamed Hanafi Musa, Mohd Rafii Yosup, Wong Mui Yun, Md. Aktar-Uz-Zaman, Mahbod Sahebi

Abstract:

Rice is a staple crop of economic importance of most Asian people, and blast is the major constraints for its higher yield. Heritability of plants traits helps plant breeders to make an appropriate selection and to assess the magnitude of genetic improvement through hybridization. Diversity of crop plants is necessary to manage the continuing genetic erosion and address the issues of genetic conservation for successfully meet the future food requirements. Therefore, an experiment was conducted to estimate heritability and to determine the diversity of 27 blast resistant upland rice genotypes based on 18 quantitative traits using randomized complete block design. Heritability value was found to vary from 38 to 93%. The lowest heritability belonged to the character total number of tillers/plant (38%). In contrast, number of filled grains/panicle, and yield/plant (g) was recorded for their highest heritability value viz. 93 and 91% correspondingly. Cluster analysis based on 18 traits grouped 27 rice genotypes into six clusters. Cluster I was the biggest, which comprised 17 genotypes, accounted for about 62.96% of total population. The multivariate analysis suggested that the genotype ‘Chokoto 14’ could be hybridized with ‘IR 5533-55-1-11’ and ‘IR 5533-PP 854-1’ for broadening the gene pool of blast resistant upland rice germplasms for yield and other favorable characters.

Keywords: blast resistant, diversity analysis, heritability, upland rice

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8 Healthy, Breast Fed Bangladeshi Children Can Regulate Their Food Consumption in Each Meal and Feeding Duration When Offered with Varied Energy Density and Feeding Frequency of Complementary Foods

Authors: M. Munirul Islam, Makhduma Khatun M., Janet M. Peerson, Tahmeed Ahmed, M. Abid Hossain Mollah, Kathryn G. Dewey, Kenneth H. Brown

Abstract:

Information is required on the effects of dietary energy density (ED) and feeding frequency (FF) of complementary foods (CF) on food consumption during individual meals and time expended in child feeding. We evaluated the effects of varied ED and FF of CFs on food intake and time required for child feeding during individual meals. During 9 separate, randomly ordered dietary periods lasting 3-6 days each, we measured self-determined intakes of porridges by 18 healthy, breastfed children 8-11 mo old who were fed coded porridges with energy densities of 0.5, 1.0 or 1.5 kcal/g, during 3, 4, or 5 meals/d. CF intake was measured by weighing the feeding bowl before and after every meal. Children consumed greater amounts of CFs per meal when they received diets with lower ED (p = 0.044) and fewer meals per day (p < 0.001). Food intake was less during the first meal of the day than the other meals. Greater time was expended per meal when fewer meals were offered. Time expended per meal did not vary by ED, but the children ate the lower ED diets faster (p = 0.019). Food intake velocity was also greater when more meals were offered per day (p = 0.005). These results provide further evidence of young children’s ability to regulate their energy intakes, even during infancy; and they convey information on factors that affect the amount of time that caregivers must devote to child feeding.

Keywords: complementary foods, energy density, feeding frequency, young children

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7 Sharing Tacit Knowledge: The Essence of Knowledge Management

Authors: Ayesha Khatun

Abstract:

In 21st century where markets are unstable, technologies rapidly proliferate, competitors multiply, products and services become obsolete almost overnight and customers demand low cost high value product, leveraging and harnessing knowledge is not just a potential source of competitive advantage rather a necessity in technology based and information intensive industries. Knowledge management focuses on leveraging the available knowledge and sharing the same among the individuals in the organization so that the employees can make best use of it towards achieving the organizational goals. Knowledge is not a discrete object. It is embedded in people and so difficult to transfer outside the immediate context that it becomes a major competitive advantage. However, internal transfer of knowledge among the employees is essential to maximize the use of knowledge available in the organization in an unstructured manner. But as knowledge is the source of competitive advantage for the organization it is also the source of competitive advantage for the individuals. People think that knowledge is power and sharing the same may lead to lose the competitive position. Moreover, the very nature of tacit knowledge poses many difficulties in sharing the same. But sharing tacit knowledge is the vital part of knowledge management process because it is the tacit knowledge which is inimitable. Knowledge management has been made synonymous with the use of software and technology leading to the management of explicit knowledge only ignoring personal interaction and forming of informal networks which are considered as the most successful means of sharing tacit knowledge. Factors responsible for effective sharing of tacit knowledge are grouped into –individual, organizational and technological factors. Different factors under each category have been identified. Creating a positive organizational culture, encouraging personal interaction, practicing reward system are some of the strategies that can help to overcome many of the barriers to effective sharing of tacit knowledge. Methodology applied here is completely secondary. Extensive review of relevant literature has been undertaken for the purpose.

Keywords: knowledge, tacit knowledge, knowledge management, sustainable competitive advantage, organization, knowledge sharing

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6 Analyzing Middle Actors' Influence on Land Use Policy: A Case Study in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

Authors: Kevin Soubly, Kaysara Khatun

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This study applies the existing Middle-Out Perspective (MOP) as a complementing analytical alternative to the customary dichotomous options of top-down vs. bottom-up strategies of international development and commons governance. It expands the framework by applying it to a new context of land management and environmental change, enabling fresh understandings of decision making around land use. Using a case study approach in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia among a village of indigenous Dayak, this study explores influences from both internal and external middle actors, utilizing qualitative empirical evidence and incorporating responses across 25 village households and 11 key stakeholders. Applying the factors of 'agency' and 'capacity' specific to the MOP, this study demonstrates middle actors’ unique capabilities and criticality to change due to their influence across various levels of decision-making. Study results indicate that middle actors play a large role, both passively and actively, both directly and indirectly, across various levels of decision-making, perception-shaping, and commons governance. In addition, the prominence of novel 'passive' middle actors, such as the internet, can provide communities themselves with a level of agency beyond that provided by other middle actors such as NGOs and palm oil industry entities – which often operate at the behest of the 'top' or out of self-interest. Further, the study posits that existing development and decision-making frameworks may misidentify the 'bottom' as the 'middle,' raising questions about traditional development and livelihood discourse, strategies, and support, from agricultural production to forest management. In conclusion, this study provides recommendations including that current policy preconceptions be reevaluated to engage middle actors in locally-adapted, integrative manners in order to improve governance and rural development efforts more broadly.

Keywords: environmental management, governance, Indonesia, land use, middle actors, middle-out perspective

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5 Genetic Analysis of Rust Resistance Genes in Global Wheat

Authors: Aktar-Uz-Zaman, M. Tuhina-Khatun, Mohamed Hanafi Musa

Abstract:

Three rust diseases: leaf (brown) rust caused by Puccinia triticina Eriks, stripe (yellow) rust caused by Puccinia striiformis West, and stem (black) rust caused by Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici are economically important diseases of wheat in world wide. Yield loss due to leaf rust is 40% in susceptible cultivars. Yield losses caused by the stem rust pathogens in the mid of 20 century reached 20-30% in Eastern and Central Europe and the most virulent stem rust race Ug99 emerged first in Uganda and after that in Kenya, Ethiopia, Yemen, in the Middle East and South Asia. Yield losses were estimated up to 100%, whereas, up to 80% have been reported in Kenya during 1999. In case of stripe rust, severity level has been recorded 60% - 70% as compared to 100% severity of susceptible check in disease screening nurseries in Kenya. Improvement of resistant varieties or cultivars is the sustainable, economical and environmentally friendly approaches for increasing the global wheat production to suppress the rust diseases. More than 68 leaf rust, 49 stripe rust and 53 stem rust resistance genes have been identified in the global wheat cultivars or varieties using different molecular breeding approaches. Among these, Lr1, Lr9, Lr10, Lr19, Lr21, Lr24, Lr25, Lr28, Lr29, Lr34, Lr35, Lr37, Lr39, Lr47, Lr51, Lr3bg, Lr18, Lr40, Lr46, and Lr50 leaf rust resistance genes have been identified by using molecular, enzymatic and microsatellite markers from African, Asian, European cultivars of hexaploid wheat (Triticum aestivum), durum wheat and diploid wheat species. These genes are located on 20, of the 21 chromosomes of hexaploid wheat. Similarly, Sr1, Sr2, Sr24, and Sr3, Sr31 stem rust resistance genes have been recognized from wheat cultivars of Pakistan, India, Kenya, and Uganda etc. A race of P. striiformis (stripe rust) Yr9, Yr18, and Yr29 was first observed in East Africa, Italy, Pakistan and India wheat cultivars. These stripe rust resistance genes are located on chromosomes 1BL, 4BL, 6AL, 3BS and 6BL in bread wheat cultivars. All these identified resistant genes could be used for notable improvement of susceptible wheat cultivars in the future.

Keywords: hexaploid wheat, resistance genes, rust disease, triticum aestivum

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4 Understanding the Common Antibiotic and Heavy Metal Resistant-Bacterial Load in the Textile Industrial Effluents

Authors: Afroza Parvin, Md. Mahmudul Hasan, Md. Rokunozzaman, Papon Debnath

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The effluents of textile industries have considerable amounts of heavy metals, causing potential microbial metal loads if discharged into the environment without treatment. Aim: In this present study, both lactose and non-lactose fermenting bacterial isolates were isolated from textile industrial effluents of a specific region of Bangladesh, named Savar, to compare and understand the load of heavy metals in these microorganisms determining the effects of heavy metal resistance properties on antibiotic resistance. Methods: Five different textile industrial canals of Savar were selected, and effluent samples were collected in 2016 between June to August. Total bacterial colony (TBC) was counted for day 1 to day 5 for 10-6 dilution of samples to 10-10 dilution. All the isolates were isolated and selected using 4 differential media, and tested for the determination of minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of heavy metals and antibiotic susceptibility test with plate assay method and modified Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion method, respectively. To detect the combined effect of heavy metals and antibiotics, a binary exposure experiment was performed, and to understand the plasmid profiling plasmid DNA was extracted by alkaline lysis method of some selective isolates. Results: Most of the cases, the colony forming units (CFU) per plate for 50 ul diluted sample were uncountable at 10-6 dilution, however, countable for 10-10 dilution and it didn’t vary much from canal to canal. A total of 50 Shigella, 50 Salmonella, and 100 E.coli (Escherichia coli) like bacterial isolates were selected for this study where the MIC was less than or equal to 0.6 mM for 100% Shigella and Salmonella like isolates, however, only 3% E. coli like isolates had the same MIC for nickel (Ni). The MIC for chromium (Cr) was less than or equal to 2.0 mM for 16% Shigella, 20% Salmonella, and 17% E. coli like isolates. Around 60% of both Shigella and Salmonella, but only 20% of E.coli like isolates had a MIC of less than or equal to 1.2 mM for lead (Pb). The most prevalent resistant pattern for azithromycin (AZM) for Shigella and Salmonella like isolates was found 38% and 48%, respectively; however, for E.coli like isolates, the highest pattern (36%) was found for sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim (SXT). In the binary exposure experiment, antibiotic zone of inhibition was mostly increased in the presence of heavy metals for all types of isolates. The highest sized plasmid was found 21 Kb and 14 Kb for lactose and non-lactose fermenting isolates, respectively. Conclusion: Microbial resistance to antibiotics and metal ions, has potential health hazards because these traits are generally associated with transmissible plasmids. Microorganisms resistant to antibiotics and tolerant to metals appear as a result of exposure to metal-contaminated environments.

Keywords: antibiotics, effluents, heavy metals, minimum inhibitory concentration, resistance

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3 Harnessing Nature's Fury: Hyptis Suaveolens Loaded Bioactive Liposome for Photothermal Therapy of Lung Cancer

Authors: Sajmina Khatun, Monika Pebam, Aravind Kumar Rengan

Abstract:

Photothermal therapy, a subset of nanomedicine, takes advantage of light-absorbing agents to generate localized heat, selectively eradicating cancer cells. This innovative approach minimizes damage to healthy tissues and offers a promising avenue for targeted cancer treatment. Unlike conventional therapies, photothermal therapy harnesses the power of light to combat malignancies precisely and effectively, showcasing its potential to revolutionize cancer treatment paradigms. The combined strengths of nanomedicine and photothermal therapy signify a transformative shift toward more effective, targeted, and tolerable cancer treatments in the medical landscape. Utilizing natural products becomes instrumental in formulating diverse bioactive medications owing to their various pharmacological properties attributed to the existence of phenolic structures, triterpenoids, and similar compounds. Hyptis suaveolens, commonly known as pignut, stands as an aromatic herb within the Lamiaceae family and represents a valuable therapeutic plant. Flourishing in swamps and alongside tropical and subtropical roadsides, these noxious weeds impede the development of adjacent plants. Hyptis suaveolens ranks among the most globally distributed alien invasive species. The present investigation revealed that a versatile, biodegradable liposome nanosystem (HIL NPs), incorporating bioactive molecules from Hyptis suaveolens, exhibits effective bioavailability to cancer cells, enabling tumor ablation upon near-infrared (NIR) laser exposure. The components within the nanosystem, specifically the bioactive molecules from Hyptis, function as anticancer agents, aiding in the photothermal ablation of highly metastatic lung cancer cells. Despite being a prolific weed impeding neighboring plant growth, Hyptis suaveolens showcases therapeutic benefits through its bioactive compounds. The obtained HIL NPs, characterized as a photothermally active liposome nanosystem, demonstrate a pronounced fluorescence absorption peak in the NIR range and achieve a high photothermal conversion efficiency under NIR laser irradiation. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and particle size analysis reveal that HIL NPs possess a spherical shape with a size of 141 ± 30 nm. Moreover, in vitro assessments of HIL NPs against lung cancer cell lines (A549) indicate effective anticancer activity through a combined cytotoxic effect and hyperthermia. Tumor ablation is facilitated by apoptosis induced by the overexpression of ɣ-H2AX, arresting cancer cell proliferation. Consequently, the multifunctional and biodegradable nanosystem (HIL NPs), incorporating bioactive compounds from Hyptis, provides valuable perspectives for developing an innovative therapeutic strategy originating from a challenging weed. This approach holds promise for potential applications in both bioimaging and the combined use of phyto-photothermal therapy for cancer treatment.

Keywords: bioactive liposome, hyptis suaveolens, photothermal therapy, lung cancer

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2 Quality of Care for the Maternal Complications at Selected Primary and Secondary Health Facilities of Bangladesh: Lessons Learned from a Formative Research

Authors: Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury, Nafisa Lira Huq, Afroza Khanom, Rafiqul Islam, Abdullah Nurus Salam Khan, Farhana Karim, Nabila Zaka, Shams El Arifeen, Sk. Masum Billah

Abstract:

After having astounding achievements in reducing maternal mortality and achieving the target for Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5, the Government of Bangladesh has set new target to reduce Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 70 per 100,000 live births aligning with targets of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Aversion of deaths from maternal complication by ensuring quality health care could be an important path to accelerate the rate of reduction of MMR. This formative research was aimed at exploring the provision of quality maternal health services at different level of health facilities. The study was conducted in 1 district hospital (DH) and 4 Upazila health complexes (UHC) of Kurigram district of Bangladesh, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative research methods. We conducted 14 key informant interviews with facility managers and 20 in-depth interviews with health care providers and support staff. Besides, we observed 387 normal deliveries from which we found 17 cases of post partum haemorrhage (PPH) and 2 cases of eclampsia during the data collection period extended from July-September 2016. The quantitative data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics, and the qualitative component underwent thematic analysis with the broad themes of facility readiness for maternal complication management, and management of complications. Inadequacy in human resources has been identified as the most important bottleneck to provide quality care to manage maternal complications. The DH had a particular paucity of human resources in medical officer cadre where about 61% posts were unfilled. On the other hand, in the UHCs the positions mostly empty were obstetricians (75%, paediatricians (75%), staff nurses (65%), and anaesthetists (100%). The workload on the existing staff is increased because of the persistence of vacant posts. Unavailability of anesthetists and consultants does not permit the health care providers (HCP) of lower cadres to perform emergency operative procedures and forces them to refer the patients although referral system is not well organized in rural Bangladesh. Insufficient bed capacity, inadequate training, shortage of emergency medicines etc. are other hindrance factors for facility readiness. Among the 387 observed delivery case, 17 (4.4%) were identified as PPH cases, and only 2 cases were found as eclampsia/pre-eclampsia. The majority of the patients were treated with uterine message (16 out of 17, 94.1%) and injectable Oxytocin (14 out of 17, 82.4%). The providers of DH mentioned that they can manage the PPH because of having provision for diagnostic and blood transfusion services, although not as 24/7 services. Regarding management of eclampsia/pre-eclampsia, HCPs provided Diazepam, MgSO4, and other anti-hypertensives. The UHCs did not have MgSO4 at stock even, and one facility manager admitted that they treat eclampsia with Diazepam only. The nurses of the UHCs were found to be afraid to handle eclampsia cases. The upcoming interventions must ensure refresher training of service providers, continuous availability of essential medicine and equipment needed for complication management, availability of skilled health workforce, availability of functioning blood transfusion unit and pairing of consultants and anaesthetists to reach the newly set targets altogether.

Keywords: Bangladesh, health facilities, maternal complications, quality of care

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1 Flood Risk Assessment for Agricultural Production in a Tropical River Delta Considering Climate Change

Authors: Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, Bhabagrahi Sahoo

Abstract:

With the changing climate, precipitation events are intensified in the tropical river basins. Since these river basins are significantly influenced by the monsoonal rainfall pattern, critical impacts are observed on the agricultural practices in the downstream river reaches. This study analyses the crop damage and associated flood risk in terms of net benefit in the paddy-dominated tropical Indian delta of the Mahanadi River. The Mahanadi River basin lies in eastern part of the Indian sub-continent and is greatly affected by the southwest monsoon rainfall extending from the month of June to September. This river delta is highly flood-prone and has suffered from recurring high floods, especially after the 2000s. In this study, the lumped conceptual model, Nedbør Afstrømnings Model (NAM) from the suite of MIKE models, is used for rainfall-runoff modeling. The NAM model is laterally integrated with the MIKE11-Hydrodynamic (HD) model to route the runoffs up to the head of the delta region. To obtain the precipitation-derived future projected discharges at the head of the delta, nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, BCC-CSM1.1(m), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive are considered. These nine GCMs are previously found to best-capture the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. Based on the performance of the nine GCMs in reproducing the historical discharge pattern, three GCMs (HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are selected. A higher Taylor Skill Score is considered as the GCM selection criteria. Thereafter, the 10-year return period design flood is estimated using L-moments based flood frequency analysis for the historical and three future projected periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-dimensional hydrograph analysis is performed to obtain the hydrographs for the historical/projected 10-year return period design floods. These hydrographs are forced into the calibrated and validated coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model, MIKE FLOOD, to simulate the flood inundation in the delta region. Historical and projected flood risk is defined based on the information about the flood inundation simulated by the MIKE FLOOD model and the inundation depth-damage-duration relationship of a normal rice variety cultivated in the river delta. In general, flood risk is expected to increase in all the future projected time periods as compared to the historical episode. Further, in comparison to the 2010s (2010-2039), an increased flood risk in the 2040s (2040-2069) is shown by all the three selected GCMs. However, the flood risk then declines in the 2070s as we move towards the end of the century (2070-2099). The methodology adopted herein for flood risk assessment is one of its kind and may be implemented in any world-river basin. The results obtained from this study can help in future flood preparedness by implementing suitable flood adaptation strategies.

Keywords: flood frequency analysis, flood risk, global climate models (GCMs), paddy cultivation

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