Search results for: Ab initio heuristic modeling

Authors: Jinyan Li, Simon Fong, Raymond Wong, Mohammed Sabah, Fiaidhi Jinan

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Clinical data analysis and forecasting have make great contributions to disease control, prevention and detection. However, such data usually suffer from highly unbalanced samples in class distributions. In this paper, we target at the binary imbalanced dataset, where the positive samples take up only the minority. We investigate two different meta-heuristic algorithms, particle swarm optimization and bat-inspired algorithm, and combine both of them with the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) for processing the datasets. One approach is to process the full dataset as a whole. The other is to split up the dataset and adaptively process it one segment at a time. The experimental results reveal that while the performance improvements obtained by the former methods are not scalable to larger data scales, the later one, which we call Adaptive Swarm Balancing Algorithms, leads to significant efficiency and effectiveness improvements on large datasets. We also find it more consistent with the practice of the typical large imbalanced medical datasets. We further use the meta-heuristic algorithms to optimize two key parameters of SMOTE. Leading to more credible performances of the classifier, and shortening the running time compared with the brute-force method.

Keywords: Imbalanced dataset, meta-heuristic algorithm, SMOTE, big data

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Authors: Guilherme Baldo Carlos

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The flexible job-shop scheduling problem (FJSP) is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem, which can be applied to model several applications in a wide array of industries. This problem will have its importance increase due to the shift in the production mode that modern society is going through. The demands are increasing and for products personalized and customized. This work aims to apply a meta-heuristic called a genetic algorithm (GA) to solve this problem. A GA is a meta-heuristic inspired by the natural selection of Charles Darwin; it produces a population of individuals (solutions) and selects, mutates, and mates the individuals through generations in order to find a good solution for the problem. The results found indicate that the GA is suitable for FJSP solving.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, evolutionary algorithm, scheduling, flexible job-shop scheduling

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Authors: Saeideh Salimpour, Sophie-Charlotte Viaux, Ahmed Azab, Mohammed Fazle Baki

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The Facility Layout Problem (FLP) is key to the efficient and cost-effective operation of a system. This paper presents a hybrid heuristic- and mathematical-programming-based approach that divides the problem conceptually into those of clustering and sequencing. First, clusters of vertically aligned facilities are formed, which are later on sequenced horizontally. The developed methodology provides promising results in comparison to its counterparts in the literature by minimizing the inter-distances for facilities which have more interactions amongst each other and aims at placing the facilities with more interactions at the centroid of the shop.

Keywords: clustering-sequencing approach, mathematical modeling, optimization, unequal facility layout problem

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Authors: Frazer Kirk, Rohen Skiba, Pankaj Saxena

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The natural history of the QAV is poorly understood due to the exceeding rarity of the condition. Incidence rates vary between 0.00028-1%. Classically patients present with Aortic Regurgitation (AR) between 40-60 years of age experiencing palpitations, chest pain, or heart failure. (1, 2) Echocardiography is the mainstay of diagnosis for this condition; however, given the rarity of this condition, it can easily be overlooked, as demonstrated here. The case report that follows serves as a reminder of the condition to reduce the innate cognitive bias to overlook the diagnosis due to the availability heuristic. Intraoperative photography, echocardiographic and magnetic resonance imaging from this case for reference to demonstrate that while the diagnosis of Aortic regurgitation was recognized early, the valve morphology was underappreciated.

Keywords: quadricuspid aortic valve, cardiac surgery, echocardiography, congenital

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Authors: Jay Xiong, Li Lin

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Existing software modeling and visualization approaches using UML are outdated, which are outcomes of reductionism and the superposition principle that the whole of a system is the sum of its parts, so that with them all tasks of software modeling and visualization are performed linearly, partially, and locally. This paper introduces revolutionary solutions for modeling and visualization of complex software systems, which make complex software systems much easy to understand, test, and maintain. The solutions are based on complexity science, offering holistic, automatic, dynamic, virtual, and executable approaches about thousand times more efficient than the traditional ones.

Keywords: complex systems, software maintenance, software modeling, software visualization

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Authors: Nuur Ezaini Akmar Ismail, Norbazilah Rahim, Norul Huda Md Rasdi, Maslina Daud

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A web application is the most targeted by the attacker because the web application is accessible by the end users. It has become more advantageous to the attacker since not all the end users aware of what kind of sensitive data already leaked by them through the Internet especially via social network in shake on ‘sharing’. The attacker can use this information such as personal details, a favourite of artists, a favourite of actors or actress, music, politics, and medical records to customize phishing attack thus trick the user to click on malware-laced attachments. The Phishing attack is one of the most popular attacks for social engineering technique against web applications. There are several methods to detect phishing websites such as Blacklist/Whitelist based detection, heuristic-based, and visual similarity-based detection. This paper illustrated a comparison between the heuristic-based technique using features of a uniform resource locator (URL) and visual similarity-based detection techniques that compares the content of a suspected phishing page with the legitimate one in order to detect new phishing sites based on the paper reviewed from the past few years. The comparison focuses on three indicators which are false positive and negative, accuracy of the method, and time consumed to detect phishing website.

Keywords: heuristic-based technique, phishing detection, social engineering and visual similarity-based technique

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Authors: Zeljko Crljen, Predrag Lazic

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Graphene has attracted a tremendous interest in the field of nanoelectronics and spintronics due to its exceptional electronic properties. However, pristine graphene has no band gap, a feature needed in building some of the electronic elements. Recently, a growing attention has been given to a class of carbon allotropes of graphene with honeycomb structures, in particular to graphyne and graphdiyne. They are characterized with a single and double acetylene bonding chains respectively, connecting the nearest-neighbor hexagonal rings. With an electron density comparable to that of graphene and a prominent gap in electronic band structures they appear as promising materials for nanoelectronic components. We studied the electronic structure and transport of infinite sheets of graphyne and graphdiyne and compared them with graphene. The method based on the non-equilibrium Green functions and density functional theory has been used in order to obtain a full ab initio self-consistent description of the transport current with different electrochemical bias potentials. The current/voltage (I/V) characteristics show a semi-conducting behavior with prominent nonlinearities at higher voltages. The calculated band gaps are 0.52V and 0.59V, respectively, and the effective masses are considerably smaller compared to typical semiconductors. We analyzed the results in terms of transmission eigenchannels and showed that the difference in conductance is directly related to the difference of the internal structure of the allotropes.

Keywords: electronic transport, graphene-like structures, nanoelectronics, two-dimensional materials

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Authors: Zaid Jamal Saeed Almahmoud

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Smart grid is emerging as the future power grid, with smart techniques to optimize power consumption and electricity generation. Minimizing peak power consumption under a fixed delay requirement is a significant problem in the smart grid.For this problem, all appliances must be scheduled within a given finite time duration. We consider the problem of minimizing the peak demand under appliances constraints by scheduling power jobs with uniform release dates and deadlines. As the problem is known to be NP-hard, we analyze the performance of a version of the natural greedy heuristic for solving this problem. Our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that the proposed heuristic outperforms existing methods by providing a better approximation to the optimal solution.

Keywords: peak demand scheduling, approximation algorithms, smart grid, heuristics

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Authors: S. A. Che Osmi, W. M. F. W. Ishak, S. F. Che Osmi

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Nowadays the issues of water quality and water pollution have been a major problem across the country. A lot of management attempt to develop their own TMDL database in order to control the river pollution. Over the past decade, the mathematical modeling has been used as the tool for the development of TMDL. This paper presents the application of water quality modeling to develop the total maximum daily load (TMDL) information. To obtain the reliable database of TMDL, the appropriate water quality modeling should choose based on the available data provided. This paper will discuss on the use of several water quality modeling such as QUAL2E, QUAL2K, and EFDC to develop TMDL. The attempts to integrate several modeling are also being discussed in this paper. Based on this paper, the differences in the application of water quality modeling based on their properties such as one, two or three dimensional are showing their ability to develop the modeling of TMDL database.

Keywords: TMDL, water quality modeling, QUAL2E, EFDC

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Authors: Nicolas Zufferey

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Ant algorithms are well-known metaheuristics which have been widely used since two decades. In most of the literature, an ant is a constructive heuristic able to build a solution from scratch. However, other types of ant algorithms have recently emerged: the discussion is thus not limited by the common framework of the constructive ant algorithms. Generally, at each generation of an ant algorithm, each ant builds a solution step by step by adding an element to it. Each choice is based on the greedy force (also called the visibility, the short term profit or the heuristic information) and the trail system (central memory which collects historical information of the search process). Usually, all the ants of the population have the same characteristics and behaviors. In contrast in this paper, a new type of ant metaheuristic is proposed, namely SMART (for Solution Methods with Ants Running by Types). It relies on the use of different population of ants, where each population has its own personality.

Keywords: ant algorithms, evolutionary procedures, metaheuristics, optimization, population-based methods

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Authors: K. Y. Tseng, C. Y. Wu

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This paper employs a heuristic algorithm to solve engineering problems including truss structure optimization and optimal chiller loading (OCL) problems. Two different type algorithms, real-valued differential evolution (DE) and modified binary differential evolution (MBDE), are successfully integrated and then can obtain better performance in solving engineering problems. In order to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm, this study adopts each one testing case of truss structure optimization and OCL problems to compare the results of other heuristic optimization methods. The result indicates that the proposed algorithm can obtain similar or better solution in comparing with previous studies.

Keywords: differential evolution, Truss structure optimization, optimal chiller loading, modified binary differential evolution

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Authors: Zoltan Theisz, Gergely Mezei

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Modern industrial automation relies on service oriented concepts of Internet of Things (IoT) device modeling in order to provide a flexible and extendable environment for service meta-repository. However, state-of-the-art meta-modeling techniques prefer design-time modeling, which results in a heavy usage of class sometimes unnecessary static subtyping. Although this approach benefits from clear-cut object-oriented design principles, it also seals the model repository for further dynamic extensions. In this paper, a dynamic multi-level modeling approach is introduced that enables dynamic subtyping through a more relaxed partial instantiation mechanism. The approach is demonstrated on a simple sensor network example.

Keywords: meta-modeling, dynamic subtyping, DMLA, industrial automation, arrowhead

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Authors: Safaa H. Sindi, Michael Roe

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This project divides supply chain (SC) models into seven Eras, according to the evolution of the market’s needs throughout time. The five earliest Eras describe the emergence of supply chains, while the last two Eras are to be created. Research objectives: The aim is to generate the two latest Eras with their respective models that focus on the consumable goods. Era Six contains the Optimal Multidimensional Matrix (OMM) that incorporates most characteristics of the SC and allocates them into four quarters (Agile, Lean, Leagile, and Basic SC). This will help companies, especially (SMEs) plan their optimal SC route. Era Seven creates an Automated Multidimensional Model (AMM) which upgrades the matrix of Era six, as it accounts for all the supply chain factors (i.e. Offshoring, sourcing, risk) into an interactive system with Heuristic Learning that helps larger companies and industries to select the best SC model for their market. Methodologies: The data collection is based on a Fuzzy-Delphi study that analyses statements using Fuzzy Logic. The first round of Delphi study will contain statements (fuzzy rules) about the matrix of Era six. The second round of Delphi contains the feedback given from the first round and so on. Preliminary findings: both models are applicable, Matrix of Era six reduces the complexity of choosing the best SC model for SMEs by helping them identify the best strategy of Basic SC, Lean, Agile and Leagile SC; that’s tailored to their needs. The interactive heuristic learning in the AMM of Era seven will help mitigate error and aid large companies to identify and re-strategize the best SC model and distribution system for their market and commodity, hence increasing efficiency. Potential contributions to the literature: The problematic issue facing many companies is to decide which SC model or strategy to incorporate, due to the many models and definitions developed over the years. This research simplifies this by putting most definition in a template and most models in the Matrix of era six. This research is original as the division of SC into Eras, the Matrix of Era six (OMM) with Fuzzy-Delphi and Heuristic Learning in the AMM of Era seven provides a synergy of tools that were not combined before in the area of SC. Additionally the OMM of Era six is unique as it combines most characteristics of the SC, which is an original concept in itself.

Keywords: Leagile, automation, heuristic learning, supply chain models

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Authors: Amanbek Jainakov, Abdikerim Kurbanaliev

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The work presents the results of mathematical modeling of large-scale flows in areas with a complex topographic relief. The Reynolds-averaged Navier—Stokes equations constitute the basis of the three-dimensional unsteady modeling. The well-known Volume of Fluid method implemented in the solver interFoam of the open package OpenFOAM 2.3 is used to track the free-boundary location. The mathematical model adequacy is checked by comparing with experimental data. The efficiency of the applied technology is illustrated by the example of modeling the breakthrough of the dams of the Andijan (Uzbekistan) and Papan (near the Osh town, Kyrgyzstan) reservoir.

Keywords: three-dimensional modeling, free boundary, the volume-of-fluid method, dam break, flood, OpenFOAM

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Authors: Duc Dong Do, Ngoc Ha Tran, Thanh Hai Dang, Cao Cuong Dang, Xuan Huan Hoang

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Global aligning two protein-protein interaction networks is an essentially important task in bioinformatics/computational biology field of study. It is a challenging and widely studied research topic in recent years. Accurately aligned networks allow us to identify functional modules of proteins and/ororthologous proteins from which unknown functions of a protein can be inferred. We here introduce a novel efficient heuristic global network alignment algorithm called FASTAn, including two phases: the first to construct an initial alignment and the second to improve such alignment by exerting a local optimization repeated procedure. The experimental results demonstrated that FASTAn outperformed the state-of-the-art global network alignment algorithm namely SPINAL in terms of both commonly used objective scores and the run-time.

Keywords: FASTAn, Heuristic algorithm, biological network alignment, protein-protein interaction networks

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Authors: Tai Nguyen, Minh Bui, Huong Ninh, Tu Nguyen, Hai Tran

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GraphCut algorithm has been widely utilized to solve various types of computer vision problems. Its expensive computational cost encouraged many researchers to improve the speed of the algorithm. Recent works proposed schemes that work on parallel computing platforms such as CUDA. However, the problem of low convergence speed prevents the usage of GraphCut for real time applications. In this paper, we propose global suppression heuristic to boost the conver-gence process of the algorithm. A parallel implementation of GraphCut algorithm on CUDA designed for the image stitching problem is introduced. Our method achieves up to 3× time boost on the graph of size 80 × 480 compared to the best sequential GraphCut algorithm while achieving satisfactory stitched images, suitable for panorama applications. Our source code will be soon available for further research.

Keywords: CUDA, graph cut, image stitching, texture synthesis, maxflow/mincut algorithm

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Authors: S. Adhirai, R. P. Mahapatra, Paramjit Singh

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Optimization is an important tool in making decisions and in analysing physical systems. In mathematical terms, an optimization problem is the problem of finding the best solution from among the set of all feasible solutions. The paper discusses the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), and its applications in different fields. The algorithm is tested using MATLAB because of its unique and powerful features. The benchmark functions used in WOA algorithm are grouped as: unimodal (F1-F7), multimodal (F8-F13), and fixed-dimension multimodal (F14-F23). Out of these benchmark functions, we show the experimental results for F7, F11, and F19 for different number of iterations. The search space and objective space for the selected function are drawn, and finally, the best solution as well as the best optimal value of the objective function found by WOA is presented. The algorithmic results demonstrate that the WOA performs better than the state-of-the-art meta-heuristic and conventional algorithms.

Keywords: optimization, optimal value, objective function, optimization problems, meta-heuristic optimization algorithms, Whale Optimization Algorithm, implementation, MATLAB

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Authors: N. Pritchard

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Within architectural education, students arrive fore-armed with; their life-experience; knowledge gained from subject-based learning; their brains and more specifically their imaginations. The learning-by-doing that they embark on in studio-based/project-based learning calls for supervision that allows the student to proactively undertake research and experimentation with design solution possibilities. The degree to which this supervision includes direction is subject to debate and differing opinion. It can be argued that if the student is to learn-by-doing, then design decision making within the design process needs to be instigated and owned by the student so that they have the ability to personally reflect on and evaluate those decisions. Within this premise lies the problem that the student's endeavours can become unstructured and unfocused as they work their way into a new and complex activity. A resultant weakness can be that the design activity is compartmented and not holistic or comprehensive, and therefore, the student's reflections are consequently impoverished in terms of providing a positive, informative feedback loop. The construct proffered in this paper is that a supportive 'armature' or 'Heuristic-Framework' can be developed that facilitates a holistic approach and reflective learning. The normal explorations of architectural design comprise: Analysing the site and context, reviewing building precedents, assimilating the briefing information. However, the student can still be compromised by 'not knowing what they need to know'. The long-serving triad 'Firmness, Commodity and Delight' provides a broad-brush framework of considerations to explore and integrate into good design. If this were further atomised in subdivision formed from the disparate aspects of architectural design that need to be considered within the design process, then the student could sieve through the facts more methodically and reflectively in terms of considering their interrelationship conflict and alliances. The words facts and sieve hold the acronym of the aspects that form the Heuristic-Framework: Function, Aesthetics, Context, Tectonics, Spatial, Servicing, Infrastructure, Environmental, Value and Ecological issues. The Heuristic could be used as a Hermeneutic Model with each aspect of design being focused on and considered in abstraction and then considered in its relation to other aspect and the design proposal as a whole. Importantly, the heuristic could be used as a method for gathering information and enhancing the design brief. The more poetic, mysterious, intuitive, unconscious processes should still be able to occur for the student. The Heuristic-Framework should not be seen as comprehensive prescriptive formulaic or inhibiting to the wide exploration of possibilities and solutions within the architectural design process.

Keywords: atomistic, hermeneutic, holistic, approach architectural design studio education

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Authors: Andrea Tundis, Carlos García Cordero, Rolf Egert, Alfredo Garro, Max Mühlhäuser

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Resilience is an important system property that relies on the ability of a system to automatically recover from a degraded state so as to continue providing its services. Resilient systems have the means of detecting faults and failures with the added capability of automatically restoring their normal operations. Mastering resilience in the domain of Cyber-Physical Systems is challenging due to the interdependence of hybrid hardware and software components, along with physical limitations, laws, regulations and standards, among others. In order to overcome these challenges, this paper presents a modeling approach, based on the concept of Dynamic Cells, tailored to the management of Smart Grids. Additionally, a heuristic algorithm that works on top of the proposed modeling approach, to find resilient configurations, has been defined and implemented. More specifically, the model supports a flexible representation of Smart Grids and the algorithm is able to manage, at different abstraction levels, the resource consumption of individual grid elements on the presence of failures and faults. Finally, the proposal is evaluated in a test scenario where the effectiveness of such approach, when dealing with complex scenarios where adequate solutions are difficult to find, is shown.

Keywords: cyber-physical systems, energy management, optimization, smart grids, self-healing, resilience, security

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Authors: Himanshu Payal, Sachin Maheshwari, Pushpendra S. Bharti

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Electrical discharge machining (EDM), a non-conventional machining process, finds wide applications for shaping difficult-to-cut alloys. Process modeling of EDM is required to exploit the process to the fullest. Process modeling of EDM is a challenging task owing to involvement of so many electrical and non-electrical parameters. This work is an attempt to model the EDM process using artificial neural network (ANN). Experiments were carried out on die-sinking EDM taking Inconel 825 as work material. ANN modeling has been performed using experimental data. The prediction ability of trained network has been verified experimentally. Results indicate that ANN can predict the values of performance measures of EDM satisfactorily.

Keywords: artificial neural network, EDM, metal removal rate, modeling, surface roughness

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Authors: Hycham Aboutaleb, Bruno Monsuez

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Current systems complexity has reached a degree that requires addressing conception and design issues while taking into account all the necessary aspects. Therefore, one of the main challenges is the way complex systems are specified and designed. The exponential growing effort, cost and time investment of complex systems in modeling phase emphasize the need for a paradigm, a framework and a environment to handle the system model complexity. For that, it is necessary to understand the expectations of the human user of the model and his limits. This paper presents a generic framework for designing complex systems, highlights the requirements a system model needs to fulfill to meet human user expectations, and defines the refined functional as well as non functional requirements modeling tools needs to meet to be useful in model-based system engineering.

Keywords: system modeling, modeling language, modeling requirements, framework

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Authors: Hamad R. Jappor, Zeyad Adnan Saleh, Mudar A. Abdulsattar

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The ab initio restricted Hartree-Fock method is used to simulate the electronic structure of indium phosphide (InP) nanocrystals (NCs) (216-738 atoms) with sizes ranging up to about 2.5 nm in diameter. The calculations are divided into two parts, surface, and core. The oxygenated (001)-(1×1) facet that expands with larger sizes of nanocrystals is investigated to determine the rule of the surface in nanocrystals electronic structure. Results show that lattice constant and ionicity of the core part show decreasing order as nanocrystals grow up in size. The smallest investigated nanocrystal is 1.6% larger in lattice constant and 131.05% larger in ionicity than the converged value of largest investigated nanocrystal. Increasing nanocrystals size also resulted in an increase of core cohesive energy (absolute value), increase of core energy gap, and increase of core valence. The surface states are found mostly non-degenerated because of the effect of surface discontinuity and oxygen atoms. Valence bandwidth is wider on the surface due to splitting and oxygen atoms. The method also shows fluctuations in the converged energy gap, valence bandwidth and cohesive energy of core part of nanocrystals duo to shape variation. The present work suggests the addition of ionicity and lattice constant to the quantities that are affected by quantum confinement phenomenon. The method of the present model has threefold results; it can be used to approach the electronic structure of crystals bulk, surface, and nanocrystals.

Keywords: InP, nanocrystals core, ionicity, Hartree-Fock method, large unit cell

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Authors: Vijaya K. Srivastava, Davide Spinello

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This paper presents performance of two robust gradient-based heuristic optimization procedures based on 3ⁿ enumeration and tunneling approach to seek global optimum of constrained integer problems. Both these procedures consist of two distinct phases for locating the global optimum of integer problems with a linear or non-linear objective function subject to linear or non-linear constraints. In both procedures, in the first phase, a local minimum of the function is found using the gradient approach coupled with hemstitching moves when a constraint is violated in order to return the search to the feasible region. In the second phase, in one optimization procedure, the second sub-procedure examines 3ⁿ integer combinations on the boundary and within hypercube volume encompassing the result neighboring the result from the first phase and in the second optimization procedure a tunneling function is constructed at the local minimum of the first phase so as to find another point on the other side of the barrier where the function value is approximately the same. In the next cycle, the search for the global optimum commences in both optimization procedures again using this new-found point as the starting vector. The search continues and repeated for various step sizes along the function gradient as well as that along the vector normal to the violated constraints until no improvement in optimum value is found. The results from both these proposed optimization methods are presented and compared with one provided by popular MS Excel solver that is provided within MS Office suite and other published results.

Keywords: constrained integer problems, enumerative search algorithm, Heuristic algorithm, Tunneling algorithm

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Authors: Tatiana V. Korsakova

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The cognitive methodology in management is considered: Cognitive structuring - the formation of ideas about the functioning of a developing organization; Cognitive modeling - heuristic construction of existing actions (zone of successful actions); and Cognitive construct - the formation of filters for converting external information into specific events of managerial reality. The major findings of the study are the identification of areas of successful actions in the organization, harmonization of criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of company management, and the frame-description that indicates the connection of environmental elements with the elements of the organization. It is stated the development of specific events of managerial reality in the direction of the further development of the organization depends on the personal cognitive construct of the development-subjects when it is used in the zone of successful actions.

Keywords: cognitive construct, focus of applicability, knowledge corporate culture, zones of successful actions

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Authors: Trung Hieu Tran, Jesse O'Hanley, Russell Fowler

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When in-wheel wireless charging technology for electric vehicles becomes mature, a need for such integrated charging stations network development is essential. In this paper, we thus investigate the optimisation problem of in-wheel wireless electric vehicle charging network design. A mixed-integer linear programming model is formulated to solve into optimality the problem. In addition, a meta-heuristic algorithm is proposed for efficiently solving large-sized instances within a reasonable computation time. A parallel computing strategy is integrated into the algorithm to speed up its computation time. Experimental results carried out on the benchmark instances show that our model and algorithm can find the optimal solutions and their potential for practical applications.

Keywords: electric vehicle, wireless charging station, mathematical programming, meta-heuristic algorithm, parallel computing

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Authors: I. D. Arroyo

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This article seeks to integrate different concepts from contemporary software engineering with an agile development approach. We seek to clarify some definitions and uses, we make a difference between the Systems Development Life Cycle (SDLC) and the methodologies, we differentiate the types of frameworks such as methodological, philosophical and behavioral, standards and documentation. We define relationships based on the documentation of the development process through formal and ad hoc models, and we define the usefulness of using DevOps and Agile Modeling as integrative methodologies of principles and best practices.

Keywords: methodologies, modeling languages, agile modeling, UML

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Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh

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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.

Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting

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Authors: Meng-Fei Cheng, Wei-Lun Chen, Han-Chang Ma, Chi-Che Tsai

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Recent K–12 Taiwan Science Education Curriculum Guideline emphasize the essential role of modeling curriculum in science learning; however, few modeling curricula have been designed and adopted in current science teaching. Therefore, this study aims to develop modeling curriculum on electric circuits to investigate any learning difficulties students have with modeling curriculum and further enhance modeling teaching. This study was conducted with 44 10th-grade students in Central Taiwan. Data collection included a students’ understanding of models in science (SUMS) survey that explored the students' epistemology of scientific models and modeling and a complex circuit problem to investigate the students’ modeling abilities. Data analysis included the following: (1) Paired sample t-tests were used to examine the improvement of students’ modeling abilities and conceptual understanding before and after the curriculum was taught. (2) Paired sample t-tests were also utilized to determine the students’ modeling abilities before and after the modeling activities, and a Pearson correlation was used to understand the relationship between students’ modeling abilities during the activities and on the posttest. (3) ANOVA analysis was used during different stages of the modeling curriculum to investigate the differences between the students’ who developed microscopic models and macroscopic models after the modeling curriculum was taught. (4) Independent sample t-tests were employed to determine whether the students who changed their models had significantly different understandings of scientific models than the students who did not change their models. The results revealed the following: (1) After the modeling curriculum was taught, the students had made significant progress in both their understanding of the science concept and their modeling abilities. In terms of science concepts, this modeling curriculum helped the students overcome the misconception that electric currents reduce after flowing through light bulbs. In terms of modeling abilities, this modeling curriculum helped students employ macroscopic or microscopic models to explain their observed phenomena. (2) Encouraging the students to explain scientific phenomena in different context prompts during the modeling process allowed them to convert their models to microscopic models, but it did not help them continuously employ microscopic models throughout the whole curriculum. The students finally consistently employed microscopic models when they had help visualizing the microscopic models. (3) During the modeling process, the students who revised their own models better understood that models can be changed than the students who did not revise their own models. Also, the students who revised their models to explain different scientific phenomena tended to regard models as explanatory tools. In short, this study explored different strategies to facilitate students’ modeling processes as well as their difficulties with the modeling process. The findings can be used to design and teach modeling curricula and help students enhance their modeling abilities.

Keywords: electric circuits, modeling curriculum, science learning, scientific model

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Authors: Alireza Dantism

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Presently, describing the function of a protein sequence is one of the most common problems in biology. Usually, this problem can be facilitated by studying the three-dimensional structure of proteins. In the absence of a protein structure, comparative modeling often provides a useful three-dimensional model of the protein that is dependent on at least one known protein structure. Comparative modeling predicts the three-dimensional structure of a given protein sequence (target) mainly based on its alignment with one or more proteins of known structure (templates). Comparative modeling consists of four main steps 1. Similarity between the target sequence and at least one known template structure 2. Alignment of target sequence and template(s) 3. Build a model based on alignment with the selected template(s). 4. Prediction of model errors 5. Optimization of the built model There are many computer programs and web servers that automate the comparative modeling process. One of the most important advantages of these servers is that it makes comparative modeling available to both experts and non-experts, and they can easily do their own modeling without the need for programming knowledge, but some other experts prefer using programming knowledge and do their modeling manually because by doing this they can maximize the accuracy of their modeling. In this study, a web-based tool has been designed to predict the tertiary structure of proteins using PHP and Python programming languages. This tool is called EasyModel. EasyModel can receive, according to the user's inputs, the desired unknown sequence (which we know as the target) in this study, the protein sequence file (template), etc., which also has a percentage of similarity with the primary sequence, and its third structure Predict the unknown sequence and present the results in the form of graphs and constructed protein files.

Keywords: structural bioinformatics, protein tertiary structure prediction, modeling, comparative modeling, modeller

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

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This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

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