Search results for: fuzzy probability score
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3774

Search results for: fuzzy probability score

924 Continuous FAQ Updating for Service Incident Ticket Resolution

Authors: Kohtaroh Miyamoto

Abstract:

As enterprise computing becomes more and more complex, the costs and technical challenges of IT system maintenance and support are increasing rapidly. One popular approach to managing IT system maintenance is to prepare and use an FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) system to manage and reuse systems knowledge. Such an FAQ system can help reduce the resolution time for each service incident ticket. However, there is a major problem where over time the knowledge in such FAQs tends to become outdated. Much of the knowledge captured in the FAQ requires periodic updates in response to new insights or new trends in the problems addressed in order to maintain its usefulness for problem resolution. These updates require a systematic approach to define the exact portion of the FAQ and its content. Therefore, we are working on a novel method to hierarchically structure the FAQ and automate the updates of its structure and content. We use structured information and the unstructured text information with the timelines of the information in the service incident tickets. We cluster the tickets by structured category information, by keywords, and by keyword modifiers for the unstructured text information. We also calculate an urgency score based on trends, resolution times, and priorities. We carefully studied the tickets of one of our projects over a 2.5-year time period. After the first 6 months, we started to create FAQs and confirmed they improved the resolution times. We continued observing over the next 2 years to assess the ongoing effectiveness of our method for the automatic FAQ updates. We improved the ratio of tickets covered by the FAQ from 32.3% to 68.9% during this time. Also, the average time reduction of ticket resolution was between 31.6% and 43.9%. Subjective analysis showed more than 75% reported that the FAQ system was useful in reducing ticket resolution times.

Keywords: FAQ system, resolution time, service incident tickets, IT system maintenance

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923 Liver Histopathological Findings after Treatment with Anastrazole and Letrozole in Ovariectomized Rats

Authors: Ioannis Boutas, Vasilios Pergialiotis, Nicolaos Salakos, George Agrogiannis, Panagiotis Konstantopoulos, Laskarina-Maria Korou, Theodoros Kalampokas, Odysseas Gregoriou, George Creatsas, Despina Perrea

Abstract:

Introduction: The effect of third generation aromatase inhibitors in the lipid profile among women with breast cancer, present diversities. It has been also shown that low levels of estrogens affect liver metabolism in mice in numerous ways, such as lipid accumulation and hepatic steatosis. Materials and Methods: Forty-five female Wistar rats underwent surgical ovariectomy. The animals were anesthetized with a combination of ketamine (75 mg/kg) and xylazine (10 mg/kg) which were administered intraperitoneally. After the ovariectomy, the operated animals were randomized in three groups. The first group did not receive any drug regimen (ovariectomized control group). The second group received Anastrazole and the third group received Letrozole. Four months after the initiation of the study, the animals were euthanized and livers were dissected immediately for further histopathological analysis. The histological features were grouped into 4 broad categories: steatosis, ballooning, portal inflammation and lobular activity. A score from 0 (absence) to 3 (severe) was assigned to each parameter. Results: The liver pathology analysis revealed significant differences among groups with favored mild steatosis and ballooning among animals that received Anastrazole or Letrozole. Conclusion: The effect of Anastrazole and Letrozole on liver function have not yet been clarified. In our study mild histological liver alterations seem also to occur and these alterations should be taken in mind in future clinical studies

Keywords: anastrazole, letrozole, liver, rats

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922 A Segmentation Method for Grayscale Images Based on the Firefly Algorithm and the Gaussian Mixture Model

Authors: Donatella Giuliani

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In this research, we propose an unsupervised grayscale image segmentation method based on a combination of the Firefly Algorithm and the Gaussian Mixture Model. Firstly, the Firefly Algorithm has been applied in a histogram-based research of cluster means. The Firefly Algorithm is a stochastic global optimization technique, centered on the flashing characteristics of fireflies. In this context it has been performed to determine the number of clusters and the related cluster means in a histogram-based segmentation approach. Successively these means are used in the initialization step for the parameter estimation of a Gaussian Mixture Model. The parametric probability density function of a Gaussian Mixture Model is represented as a weighted sum of Gaussian component densities, whose parameters are evaluated applying the iterative Expectation-Maximization technique. The coefficients of the linear super-position of Gaussians can be thought as prior probabilities of each component. Applying the Bayes rule, the posterior probabilities of the grayscale intensities have been evaluated, therefore their maxima are used to assign each pixel to the clusters, according to their gray-level values. The proposed approach appears fairly solid and reliable when applied even to complex grayscale images. The validation has been performed by using different standard measures, more precisely: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the Structural Content (SC), the Normalized Correlation Coefficient (NK) and the Davies-Bouldin (DB) index. The achieved results have strongly confirmed the robustness of this gray scale segmentation method based on a metaheuristic algorithm. Another noteworthy advantage of this methodology is due to the use of maxima of responsibilities for the pixel assignment that implies a consistent reduction of the computational costs.

Keywords: clustering images, firefly algorithm, Gaussian mixture model, meta heuristic algorithm, image segmentation

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921 Proposed Algorithms to Assess Concussion Potential in Rear-End Motor Vehicle Collisions: A Meta-Analysis

Authors: Rami Hashish, Manon Limousis-Gayda, Caitlin McCleery

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Introduction: Mild traumatic brain injuries, also referred to as concussions, represent an increasing burden to society. Due to limited objective diagnostic measures, concussions are diagnosed by assessing subjective symptoms, often leading to disputes to their presence. Common biomechanical measures associated with concussion are high linear and/or angular acceleration to the head. With regards to linear acceleration, approximately 80g’s has previously been shown to equate with a 50% probability of concussion. Motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) are a leading cause of concussion, due to high head accelerations experienced. The change in velocity (delta-V) of a vehicle in an MVC is an established metric for impact severity. As acceleration is the rate of delta-V with respect to time, the purpose of this paper is to determine the relation between delta-V (and occupant parameters) with linear head acceleration. Methods: A meta-analysis was conducted for manuscripts collected using the following keywords: head acceleration, concussion, brain injury, head kinematics, delta-V, change in velocity, motor vehicle collision, and rear-end. Ultimately, 280 studies were surveyed, 14 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria as studies investigating the human response to impacts, reporting head acceleration, and delta-V of the occupant’s vehicle. Statistical analysis was conducted with SPSS and R. The best fit line analysis allowed for an initial understanding of the relation between head acceleration and delta-V. To further investigate the effect of occupant parameters on head acceleration, a quadratic model and a full linear mixed model was developed. Results: From the 14 selected studies, 139 crashes were analyzed with head accelerations and delta-V values ranging from 0.6 to 17.2g and 1.3 to 11.1 km/h, respectively. Initial analysis indicated that the best line of fit (Model 1) was defined as Head Acceleration = 0.465

Keywords: acceleration, brain injury, change in velocity, Delta-V, TBI

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920 Balanced Scorecard (BSC) Project : A Methodological Proposal for Decision Support in a Corporate Scenario

Authors: David de Oliveira Costa, Miguel Ângelo Lellis Moreira, Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes, Daniel Augusto de Moura Pereira, Marcos dos Santos

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Strategic management is a fundamental process for global companies that intend to remain competitive in an increasingly dynamic and complex market. To do so, it is necessary to maintain alignment with their principles and values. The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) proposes to ensure that the overall business performance is based on different perspectives (financial, customer, internal processes, and learning and growth). However, relying solely on the BSC may not be enough to ensure the success of strategic management. It is essential that companies also evaluate and prioritize strategic projects that need to be implemented to ensure they are aligned with the business vision and contribute to achieving established goals and objectives. In this context, the proposition involves the incorporation of the SAPEVO-M multicriteria method to indicate the degree of relevance between different perspectives. Thus, the strategic objectives linked to these perspectives have greater weight in the classification of structural projects. Additionally, it is proposed to apply the concept of the Impact & Probability Matrix (I&PM) to structure and ensure that strategic projects are evaluated according to their relevance and impact on the business. By structuring the business's strategic management in this way, alignment and prioritization of projects and actions related to strategic planning are ensured. This ensures that resources are directed towards the most relevant and impactful initiatives. Therefore, the objective of this article is to present the proposal for integrating the BSC methodology, the SAPEVO-M multicriteria method, and the prioritization matrix to establish a concrete weighting of strategic planning and obtain coherence in defining strategic projects aligned with the business vision. This ensures a robust decision-making support process.

Keywords: MCDA process, prioritization problematic, corporate strategy, multicriteria method

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919 The Patterns and Levels of Physical Activity and Sedentary Behavior of Primary School Learners in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Authors: Howard Gomwe, Eunice Seekoe, Philemon Lyoka, Chioneso Show Marange, Dennyford Mafa

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Background: This study was designed to assess PA levels and sedentary behavior among primary school learners in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. Methods: A cross-sectional study was adopted to assess the patterns and levels of PA and sedentary behavior using the Physical Activity Questionnaire for Older Children (PAQ-C). Results: Using complete case analysis, 870 randomly selected participants (boys = 351 and girls = 519) aged 9 to 14 years were retained. The sample comprised of primary school learners, both boys and girls; aged 9-14 years old, who were randomly selected from rural, urban and peri-urban areas in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Overly, the sample had a mean PAQ-C score of 2.33 ± 0.43. The mean of PA in boys was significantly higher (p = 0.003) in comparison with the girls. The 13 to 14 age group had a significantly higher PA level (p = 0.014). Learners from urban areas (n = 136; 77.3%) engaged more in sedentary behaviour as compared to those from rural areas (n = 252; 54.9%). Conclusion: The findings demonstrated low levels of PA and high engagement of sedentary behavior, which have negative implications on the health, growth and development of children. The study, therefore, recommends relevant stakeholders to implement interventions aimed to promote the increase in PA and reduction in sedentary behaviors for primary school learners in the Eastern Cape province in South Africa.

Keywords: learners, physical activity, sedentary behavior, south Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 190
918 Structure-Based Drug Design of Daptomycin, Antimicrobial lipopeptide

Authors: Satya Eswari Jujjavarapu, Swast Dhagat

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Contagious diseases enact severe public health problems and have upsetting consequences. The cyclic lipopeptides explained by bacteria Bacillus, Paenibacillus, Pseudomonas, Streptomyces, Serratia, Propionibacterium and fungus Fusarium are very critical in confining the pathogens. As the degree of drug resistance upsurges in unparalleled manner, the perseverance of searching novel cyclic lipopeptides is being professed. The intense study has shown the implication of these bioactive compounds extending beyond antibacterial and antifungal. Lipopeptides, composed of single units of peptide and fatty acyl moiety, show broad spectrum antimicrobial effects. Among the surplus of cyclic lipopeptides, only few have materialized as strong antibiotics. For their functional vigor, polymyxin, daptomycin, surfactin, iturin and bacillomycin have been integrated in mainstream healthcare. In our work daptomycin has been a major part of antimicrobial resource since the past decade. Daptomycin, a cyclic lipopeptide consists of 13-member amino acid with a decanoyl side-chain. This structure of daptomycin confers it the mechanism of action through which it forms pore in the bacterial cell membrane resulting in the death of cell. Daptomycin is produced by Streptococccus roseoporus and acts against Streptococcus pneumonia (PSRP), methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE). The PDB structure and ligands of daptomycin are available online. The molecular docking studies of these ligands with the lipopeptides were performed and their docking score and glide energy were recorded.

Keywords: daptomycin, molecular docking, structure-based drug design, lipopeptide

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917 Weight Status, Body Appreciation Correlated with Husbands' Satisfaction in Saudi Women

Authors: Hala Hzam Al Otaibi

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Background: Obesity is more common among Saudi women compared to men, with 75–88% of adult women suffering from overweight or obesity and most of them married. Weight status and body appreciation are an important factor in maintaining or loss weight behaviors and for husbands satisfaction. Aims: To assess weight status, body appreciation and related factors, including age, level of education, occupation status husbands satisfaction in adult women. Methods: A cross-sectional study conducted among 326 married women, aged 18 to 60 years old in Eastern of Saudi Arabia. Data were collected by face to face interview, height and weight were measured to calculate body mass index (BMI). Body Appreciation Scale (BAS) and husbands satisfied were evaluated through questioning. Results: The majority of women has a university education, not employed and less than 40 years old (66.5%, 69.9%, 67.5%; respectively). Fifty-four percent of women overweight/obese and the rest were normal weight, BAS mean score was lower in younger women (>40 years) 7.39+2.20 and obese women (6.83+2.16) which is reflected lower body appreciation. Husbands' satisfaction regarding the weight status shows 47.6% of normal weight believed their husbands were dissatisfied with their weight and consider them as overweight/obese, 28.3% of overweight/obese thought their husbands satisfied with their weight and consider them as normal weight. Body appreciation correlated with age (r.139,p<0.05) and no correlation found for level of education and employed status. Husbands satisfaction strongly correlated with body appreciation (r.189,p<0.01) and weight status (r .570,p <0.01). Conclusion: Our findings indicate that women had a low body appreciation related to age, weight status and husbands' dissatisfaction. Future interventions aimed to weight reduction, it is important to consider husband satisfaction, as well as we need more assessment of weight satisfaction in younger women.

Keywords: body appreciation, husbands satisfaction, weight status, women

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916 Uptake of Cervical Cancer Screening Services and Associated Factors at KISWA HCII, Kampala, Uganda

Authors: Mary Kiviiri Nakawuka, Mary Namugalu, Andrew Otiti

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BACKGROUND Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women and seventh overall among all cancers worldwide. It accounts for about 7.5% of all female-cancer deaths with 85% occurring in low and middle-income countries and the first most common female cancer in women aged 15 to 44 years in Uganda with an annual number of new cases at 3,915 and 2,275 annual number of cervical cancer deaths in 2012 (ICO INFORMATION CENTRE ON HPV AND CANCER, 2017).Despite the available free cervical cancer screening services whose uptake has been documented to improve the chances of successful treatment of pre-cancers and cancers among women of reproductive age, there is a low uptake of these services thus we sought to examine the uptake of cervical cancer services and associated factors among women of reproductive age (25-49) attending the ART clinic of KISWA HCII in Kampala, Uganda METHODS The research was carried out in the ART clinic of KISWA HCII among 385 participants. An analytical, cross-sectional study with quantitative methods of data collection was used. The study adopted a non-probability convenience sampling method to select participants. Quantitative data was collected through structured questionnaires. RESULTS 72.2% of the participants were found to have been screened for cervical cancer. 36 % of the screened women had a positive HPV or VIA result ,59.2% of the screened women had a negative HPV or VIA result and 4.8% had an invalid HPV test result. Only 39.5% of the participants had adequate overall knowledge about cervical cancer, more than a third of the participants (50%) had moderate or low knowledge and minority of them (10.5%) had no knowledge. There was no significant association between the uptake of cervical cancer screening services among participants and their socio-demographic characteristics. CONCLUSIONS Although majority of the women surveyed had been screened for cervical cancer, a comparatively large number of participants had inadequate knowledge about cervical cancer and therefore there is still need to continue teaching about cervical cancer and this may include education campaigns, improvements to the accessibility and convenience of the screening services.

Keywords: cervical cancer uptake, cervical cancer screening, women of reproductive age., cervical cancer knowledge

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915 The Impact of Land Cover Change on Stream Discharges and Water Resources in Luvuvhu River Catchment, Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Authors: P. M. Kundu, L. R. Singo, J. O. Odiyo

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Luvuvhu River catchment in South Africa experiences floods resulting from heavy rainfall of intensities exceeding 15 mm per hour associated with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The generation of runoff is triggered by the rainfall intensity and soil moisture status. In this study, remote sensing and GIS techniques were used to analyze the hydrologic response to land cover changes. Runoff was calculated as a product of the net precipitation and a curve number coefficient. It was then routed using the Muskingum-Cunge method using a diffusive wave transfer model that enabled the calculation of response functions between start and end point. Flood frequency analysis was determined using theoretical probability distributions. Spatial data on land cover was obtained from multi-temporal Landsat images while data on rainfall, soil type, runoff and stream discharges was obtained by direct measurements in the field and from the Department of Water. A digital elevation model was generated from contour maps available at http://www.ngi.gov.za. The results showed that land cover changes had impacted negatively to the hydrology of the catchment. Peak discharges in the whole catchment were noted to have increased by at least 17% over the period while flood volumes were noted to have increased by at least 11% over the same period. The flood time to peak indicated a decreasing trend, in the range of 0.5 to 1 hour within the years. The synergism between remotely sensed digital data and GIS for land surface analysis and modeling was realized, and it was therefore concluded that hydrologic modeling has potential for determining the influence of changes in land cover on the hydrologic response of the catchment.

Keywords: catchment, digital elevation model, hydrological model, routing, runoff

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914 Prediction Modeling of Alzheimer’s Disease and Its Prodromal Stages from Multimodal Data with Missing Values

Authors: M. Aghili, S. Tabarestani, C. Freytes, M. Shojaie, M. Cabrerizo, A. Barreto, N. Rishe, R. E. Curiel, D. Loewenstein, R. Duara, M. Adjouadi

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A major challenge in medical studies, especially those that are longitudinal, is the problem of missing measurements which hinders the effective application of many machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, recent Alzheimer's Disease studies have focused on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI) and Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) from cognitively normal controls (CN) which is essential for developing effective and early treatment methods. To address the aforementioned challenges, this paper explores the potential of using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm in handling missing values in multiclass classification. We seek a generalized classification scheme where all prodromal stages of the disease are considered simultaneously in the classification and decision-making processes. Given the large number of subjects (1631) included in this study and in the presence of almost 28% missing values, we investigated the performance of XGBoost on the classification of the four classes of AD, NC, EMCI, and LMCI. Using 10-fold cross validation technique, XGBoost is shown to outperform other state-of-the-art classification algorithms by 3% in terms of accuracy and F-score. Our model achieved an accuracy of 80.52%, a precision of 80.62% and recall of 80.51%, supporting the more natural and promising multiclass classification.

Keywords: eXtreme gradient boosting, missing data, Alzheimer disease, early mild cognitive impairment, late mild cognitive impair, multiclass classification, ADNI, support vector machine, random forest

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913 Modeling of Bipolar Charge Transport through Nanocomposite Films for Energy Storage

Authors: Meng H. Lean, Wei-Ping L. Chu

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The effects of ferroelectric nanofiller size, shape, loading, and polarization, on bipolar charge injection, transport, and recombination through amorphous and semicrystalline polymers are studied. A 3D particle-in-cell model extends the classical electrical double layer representation to treat ferroelectric nanoparticles. Metal-polymer charge injection assumes Schottky emission and Fowler-Nordheim tunneling, migration through field-dependent Poole-Frenkel mobility, and recombination with Monte Carlo selection based on collision probability. A boundary integral equation method is used for solution of the Poisson equation coupled with a second-order predictor-corrector scheme for robust time integration of the equations of motion. The stability criterion of the explicit algorithm conforms to the Courant-Friedrichs-Levy limit. Trajectories for charge that make it through the film are curvilinear paths that meander through the interspaces. Results indicate that charge transport behavior depends on nanoparticle polarization with anti-parallel orientation showing the highest leakage conduction and lowest level of charge trapping in the interaction zone. Simulation prediction of a size range of 80 to 100 nm to minimize attachment and maximize conduction is validated by theory. Attached charge fractions go from 2.2% to 97% as nanofiller size is decreased from 150 nm to 60 nm. Computed conductivity of 0.4 x 1014 S/cm is in agreement with published data for plastics. Charge attachment is increased with spheroids due to the increase in surface area, and especially so for oblate spheroids showing the influence of larger cross-sections. Charge attachment to nanofillers and nanocrystallites increase with vol.% loading or degree of crystallinity, and saturate at about 40 vol.%.

Keywords: nanocomposites, nanofillers, electrical double layer, bipolar charge transport

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912 Improvement to Pedestrian Walkway Facilities to Enhance Pedestrian Safety-Initiatives in India

Authors: Basavaraj Kabade, K. T. Nagaraja, Swathi Ramanathan, A. Veeraragavan, P. S. Reashma

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Deteriorating quality of the pedestrian environment and the increasing risk of pedestrian crashes are major concerns for most of the cities in India. The recent shift in the priority to motorized transport and the abating condition of existing pedestrian facilities can be considered as prime reasons for the increasing pedestrian related crashes in India. Bengaluru City – the IT capital hub of the nation is not much different from this. The increase in number of pedestrian crashes in Bengaluru reflects the same. To resolve this issue and to ensure safe, sustainable and pedestrian friendly sidewalks, Govt. of Karnataka, India has implemented newfangled pedestrian sidewalks popularized programme named Tender S.U.R.E. (Specifications for Urban Road Execution) projects. Tender SURE adopts unique urban street design guidelines where the pedestrians are given prime preference. The present study presents an assessment of the quality and performance of the pedestrian side walk and the walkability index of the newly built pedestrian friendly sidewalks. Various physical and environmental factors affecting pedestrian safety are identified and studied in detail. The pedestrian mobility is quantified through Pedestrian Level of Service (PLoS) and the pedestrian walking comfort is measured by calculating the Walkability Index (WI). It is observed that the new initiatives taken in reference to improving pedestrian safety have succeeded in Bengaluru by attaining a level of Service of ‘A’ and with a good WI score.

Keywords: pedestrian safety, pedestrian level of service (PLoS), Right of Way (RoW), Tender S.U.R.E (Specifications for Urban Road Execution), walkability index (WI), walkway facilities

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911 Fragility Analysis of a Soft First-Story Building in Mexico City

Authors: Rene Jimenez, Sonia E. Ruiz, Miguel A. Orellana

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On 09/19/2017, a Mw = 7.1 intraslab earthquake occurred in Mexico causing the collapse of about 40 buildings. Many of these were 5- or 6-story buildings with soft first story; so, it is desirable to perform a structural fragility analysis of typical structures representative of those buildings and to propose a reliable structural solution. Here, a typical 5-story building constituted by regular R/C moment-resisting frames in the first story and confined masonry walls in the upper levels, similar to the collapsed structures on the 09/19/2017 Mexico earthquake, is analyzed. Three different structural solutions of the 5-story building are considered: S1) it is designed in accordance with the Mexico City Building Code-2004; S2) then, the column dimensions of the first story corresponding to S1 are reduced, and S3) viscous dampers are added at the first story of solution S2. A number of dynamic incremental analyses are performed for each structural solution, using a 3D structural model. The hysteretic behavior model of the masonry was calibrated with experiments performed at the Laboratory of Structures at UNAM. Ten seismic ground motions are used to excite the structures; they correspond to ground motions recorded in intermediate soil of Mexico City with a dominant period around 1s, where the structures are located. The fragility curves of the buildings are obtained for different values of the maximum inter-story drift demands. Results show that solutions S1 and S3 give place to similar probabilities of exceedance of a given value of inter-story drift for the same seismic intensity, and that solution S2 presents a higher probability of exceedance for the same seismic intensity and inter-story drift demand. Therefore, it is concluded that solution S3 (which corresponds to the building with soft first story and energy dissipation devices) can be a reliable solution from the structural point of view.

Keywords: demand hazard analysis, fragility curves, incremental dynamic analyzes, soft-first story, structural capacity

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910 Acute Kidney Injury in Severe Trauma Patients: Clinical Presentation and Risk Factor Analysis

Authors: Inkyong Yi

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Acute kidney injury (AKI) in trauma patients is known to be associated with multiple factors, especially shock and consequent inadequate renal perfusion, yet its clinical presentation is little known in severe trauma patients. Our aim was to investigate the clinical presentation of acute kidney injury and its outcome in severe trauma patients at a level I trauma center. A total of 93 consecutive adult trauma patients with an injury severity score (ISS) of more than 15 were analyzed retrospectively from our Level I trauma center data base. Patients with direct renal injury were excluded. Patients were dichotomized into two groups, according to the presence of AKI. Various clinical parameters were compared between two groups, with Student’s T test and Mann-Whitney’s U test. The AKI group was further dichotomized into patients who recovered within seven days, and those who required more than 7days for recovery or those who did not recover at all. Various clinical parameters associated with outcome were further analyzed. Patients with AKI (n=33, 35%) presented with significantly higher age (61.4±17.3 vs. 45.4±17.3, p < 0.0001), incidence of comorbidities (hypertension; 51.5% vs. 13.3%, OR 6.906 95%CI 2.515-18.967, diabetes; 27.3% vs. 6.7%, OR 5.250, 95%CI 1.472-18.722), odds of head and neck trauma (69.7% vs. 41.7%, OR 3.220, 95%CI 1.306-7.942) and presence of shock during emergency room care (66.7% vs 21.7% OR 7.231, 95%CI, 2.798-18.687). Among AKI patients, patients who recovered within 1 week showed lower peak lactate (4.7mmol/L, 95%CI 2.9-6.5 vs 7.3mmol/L, 95%CI 5.0-9.6, p < 0.0287), lesser units of transfusion during first 24 hours (pRBC; 20.4unit, 95%CI 12.5-28.3 vs. 58.9unit, 95%CI 39.4-78.5, p=0.0003, FFP; 16.6unit, 95%CI 6.8-26.4 vs. 56.1unit, 95%CI 26.9-85.2, p=0.0027). In severe trauma patients, patients with AKI showed different clinical presentations and worse outcomes. Initial presence of shock and higher DIC profiles may be important risk factors for AKI in severe trauma patients. In patients with AKI, peak lactate level and amounts of transfusion are related to recovery.

Keywords: acute kidney injury, lactate, transfusion, trauma

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909 Neuropsychology of Social Awareness: A Research Study Applied to University Students in Greece

Authors: Argyris Karapetsas, Maria Bampou, Andriani Mitropoulou

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The aim of the present work is to study the role of brain function in social awareness processing. Mind controls all the psychosomatic functions. Mind’s functioning enables individual not only to recognize one's own self and propositional attitudes, but also to assign such attitudes to other individuals, and to consider such observed mental states in the elucidation of behavior. Participants and Methods: Twenty (n=20) undergraduate students (mean age 18 years old) were involved in this study. Students participated in a clinical assessment, being conducted in Laboratory of Neuropsychology, at University of Thessaly, in Volos, Greece. Assessment included both electrophysiological (i.e.Event Related Potentials (ERPs) esp.P300 waveform) and neuropsychological tests (Raven's Progressive Matrices (RPM) and Sally-Anne test). Results: Initial assessment’s results confirmed statistically significant differences between the males and females, as well as in score performance to the tests applied. Strong correlations emerged between prefrontal lobe functioning, RPM, Sally-Anne test and P300 latencies. Also, significant dysfunction of mind has been found, regarding its three dimensions (straight, circular and helical). At the end of the assessment, students received consultation and appropriate guidelines in order to improve their intrapersonal and interpersonal skills. Conclusions: Mind and social awareness phenomena play a vital role in human development and may act as determinants of the quality of one’s own life. Meanwhile, brain function is highly correlated with social awareness and it seems that different set of brain structures are involved in social behavior.

Keywords: brain activity, emotions, ERP's, social awareness

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908 Assessment of Delirium, It's Possible Risk Factors and Outcome in Patient Admitted in Medical Intensive Care Unit

Authors: Rupesh K. Chaudhary, Narinder P. Jain, Rajesh Mahajan, Rajat Manchanda

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Introduction: Delirium is a complex, multifactorial neuropsychiatric syndrome comprising a broad range of cognitive and neurobehavioral symptoms. In critically ill patients, it may develop secondary to multiple predisposing factors. Although it can be transient and irreversible but if left untreated may lead to long term cognitive dysfunction. Early identification and assessment of risk factors usually help in appropriate management of delirium which in turn leads to decreased hospital stay, cost of therapy and mortality. Aim and Objective: Aim of the present study was to estimate the incidence of delirium using a validated scale in medical ICU patients and to determine the associated risk factors and outcomes. Material and Method: A prospective study in an 18-bed medical-intensive care unit (ICU) was undertaken. A total of 357 consecutive patients admitted to ICU for more than 24 hours were assessed. These patients were screened with the help of Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit -CAM-ICU, Richmond Agitation and Sedation Scale, Screening Checklist for delirium and APACHE II. Appropiate statistical analysis was done to evaluate the risk factors influencing mortality in delirium. Results: Delirium occurred in 54.6% of 194 patients. Risk of delirium was independently associated with a history of hypertension, diabetes but not with severity of illness APACHE II score. Delirium was linked to longer ICU stay 13.08 ± 9.6 ver 7.07 ± 4.98 days, higher ICU mortality (35.8% % vs. 17.0%). Conclusion: Our study concluded that delirium poses a great risk factor in the outcome of the patient and carries high mortality, so a timely intervention helps in addressing these issues.

Keywords: delirium, risk factors, outcome, intervention

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907 Economic Assessment of the Fish Solar Tent Dryers

Authors: Collen Kawiya

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In an effort of reducing post-harvest losses and improving the supply of quality fish products in Malawi, the fish solar tent dryers have been designed in the southern part of Lake Malawi for processing small fish species under the project of Cultivate Africa’s Future (CultiAF). This study was done to promote the adoption of the fish solar tent dryers by the many small scale fish processors in Malawi through the assessment of the economic viability of these dryers. With the use of the project’s baseline survey data, a business model for a constructed ‘ready for use’ solar tent dryer was developed where investment appraisal techniques were calculated in addition with the sensitivity analysis. The study also conducted a risk analysis through the use of the Monte Carlo simulation technique and a probabilistic net present value was found. The investment appraisal results showed that the net present value was US$8,756.85, the internal rate of return was 62% higher than the 16.32% cost of capital and the payback period was 1.64 years. The sensitivity analysis results showed that only two input variables influenced the fish solar dryer investment’s net present value. These are the dried fish selling prices that were correlating positively with the net present value and the fresh fish buying prices that were negatively correlating with the net present value. Risk analysis results showed that the chances that fish processors will make a loss from this type of investment are 17.56%. It was also observed that there exist only a 0.20 probability of experiencing a negative net present value from this type of investment. Lastly, the study found that the net present value of the fish solar tent dryer’s investment is still robust in spite of any changes in the levels of investors risk preferences. With these results, it is concluded that the fish solar tent dryers in Malawi are an economically viable investment because they are able to improve the returns in the fish processing activity. As such, fish processors need to adopt them by investing their money to construct and use them.

Keywords: investment appraisal, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis, solar tent drying

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906 Influence of Copper-Methionine on Hematological and Biochemical Changes and Ascites Incidence in Cold-Stressed Broilers

Authors: M. Bagheri Varzaneh, H. R. Rahmani, R. Jahanian

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The present study aimed to investigate the effects of copper-methionine on ascites incidence and hematological, morphological and enzymatic responses in broiler chickens. A total of 480 one-day-old Ross 308 broiler chicks were used in a completely randomized design in a 2×3 factorial arrangement of treatments including two ambient temperatures (thermoneutral and cold stress) and three copper levels (0, 100, and 200 mg/kg as copper-methionine) with 4 replicates (20 birds in each replicate). Broilers were kept in an environmentally-controlled room from 1 to 28 days; then, half of them exposed to cold temperature from 28 to 45 days of age. The birds were sacrificed at days 38 and 45 of age. Heparinized blood samples were collected to measure hematocrit, hemoglobin concentration, red blood cell (RBC) count, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST). Heart, lungs, liver, and spleen were collected and weighed separately on a sensitive digital scale. At d 38 of age, none of hematological variables, enzymatic parameters, and relative weights of organs were affected by treatments. Ascitic broilers were observed in group subjected to cold temperature and control diet (without supplemental copper) at d 45 of age. Relative weight of lungs and relative weight of heart in broilers fed on copper-methionine supplemented diets in cold temperature were lower compared with other groups. Relative liver weight, ALT, AST activities, and hematological parameters such as hematocrit, hemoglobin concentration, red blood cell count in ascitic broilers were significantly increased. In contrast, a significant decrease of the relative weight of spleen was shown in these chickens. The results showed that dietary supplementation with copper–methionine can decrease probability of ascites incidence in broilers chicks, especially under cold condition.

Keywords: ascites, cold temperature, copper-methionine, cold-stressed broiler

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905 The Use of Complementary and Alternative Medicine for Pain Relief in the Elderly: An Investigational Analysis of Seniors Residing in an Independent/Assisted Seniors’ Living Facility

Authors: Carol Cameletti

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The goal of this study was to perform a pilot survey to assess pain frequency and intensity in an elderly population and to assess treatment options for chronic pain that include complementary and alternative medicines (CAM). Ten participants were recruited from an independent and supportive living housing facility in Northern Ontario and asked to complete two questionnaires: 1) a self-assessment on pain, and 2) the use of CAM for pain. Results from our study show that 80% of the participants experienced pains other than the regular everyday pains such as minor headaches, sprains or toothaches. Although participants stated that on average the highest level of pain they experienced within the past 24 hours had a score of 6.5 (0=no pain, 10=worst pain imaginable) the level of pain they experienced moderately interfered with their daily activities. Unfortunately, participants stated that they were only able to attain minimal levels of pain relief using treatments or medications causing some of the participants to seek alternative therapies or self-help practices. The most commonly used CAMs were vitamins/minerals, herbs and supplements, and self-help practices such as meditation, prayer, visualization and relaxation techniques. Although some of the participants stated that they had received complementary treatments directly from their physician, four of the nine participants said that they had not disclosed CAM use to their physician thereby indicating a need to open the lines of communication between healthcare providers and patients with regards to CAM use. It is our hope that the data generated from this study will serve as the platform for a pain management clinic that is client-centered, consumer-driven and truly integrative and tailored in order to meet the unique needs of older adults in Great Sudbury, Ontario.

Keywords: alternative, complementary, elderly, medicine

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904 Risk of Type 2 Diabetes among Female College Students in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Noor A. Hakim

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Several studies in the developed countries investigated the prevalence of diabetes and obesity among individuals from different socioeconomic levels and suggested lower rates among the higher socioeconomic groups. However, studies evaluating diabetes risk and prevalence of obesity among the population of middle- to high-income status in developing countries are limited. The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk of developing type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the weight status of female students in private universities in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. This is a cross-sectional study of 121 female students aged ≤ 25 years old was conducted; participants were recruited from two private universities. Diabetes risk was evaluated using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Anthropometric measurements were assessed, and body-mass-index (BMI) was calculated. Diabetes risk scores indicated that 35.5% of the female students had a slightly elevated risk, and 10.8% had a moderate to high risk to develop T2DM. One-third of the females (29.7%) were overweight or obese. The majority of the normal weight and underweight groups were classified to have a low risk of diabetes, 22.2% of the overweight participants were classified to have moderate to high risk, and over half of the obese participants (55.5%) were classified to be at the moderate to high-risk category. Conclusions: Given that diabetes risk is alarming among the population in Saudi Arabia, healthcare providers should utilize a simple screening tool to identify high-risk individuals and initiate diabetes preventive strategies to prevent, or delay, the onset of T2DM and improve the quality of life.

Keywords: risk of type 2 diabetes, weight status, college students, socioeconomic status

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
903 Natural Bio-Active Product from Marine Resources

Authors: S. Ahmed John

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Marine forms-bacteria, actinobacteria, cynobacteria, fungi, microalgae, seaweeds mangroves and other halophytes an extremely important oceanic resources and constituting over 90% of the oceanic biomass. The marine natural products have lead to the discovery of many compounds considered worthy for clinical applications. The marine sources have the highest probability of yielding natural products. Natural derivatives play an important role to prevent the cancer incidences as synthetic drug transformation in mangrove. 28.12% of anticancer compound extracted from the mangroves. Exchocaria agollocha has the anti cancer compounds. The present investigation reveals the potential of the Exchocaria agollocha with biotechnological applications for anti cancer, antimicrobial drug discovery, environmental remediation, and developing new resources for the industrial process. The anti-cancer activity of Exchocaria agollocha was screened from 3.906 to 1000 µg/ml of concentration with the dilution leads to 1:1 to 1:128 following methanol and chloroform extracts. The cell viability in the Exchocaria agollocha was maximum at the lower concentration where as low at the higher concentration of methanol and chloroform extracts when compare to control. At 3.906 concentration, 85.32 and 81.96 of cell viability was found at 1:128 dilution of methanol and chloroform extracts respectively. At the concentration of 31.25 following 1:16 dilution, the cell viability was 65.55 in methanol and 45.55 in chloroform extracts. However, at the higher concentration, the cell viability 22.35 and 8.12 was recorded in the extracts of methanol and chloroform. The cell viability was more in methanol when compare to chloroform extracts at lower concentration. The present findings gives current trends in screening and the activity analysis of metabolites from mangrove resources and to expose the models to bring a new sustain for tackling cancer. Bioactive compounds of Exchocaria agollocha have extensive use in treatment of many diseases and serve as a compound and templates for synthetic modification.

Keywords: bio-active product, compounds, natural products and microalgae

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902 The Test of Memory Malingering and Offence Severity

Authors: Kenji Gwee

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In Singapore, the death penalty remains in active use for murder and drug trafficking of controlled drugs such as heroin. As such, the psychological assessment of defendants can often be of high stakes. The Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM) is employed by government psychologists to determine the degree of effort invested by defendants, which in turn inform on the veracity of overall psychological findings that can invariably determine the life and death of defendants. The purpose of this study was to find out if defendants facing the death penalty were more likely to invest less effort during psychological assessment (to fake bad in hopes of escaping the death sentence) compared to defendants facing lesser penalties. An archival search of all forensic cases assessed in 2012-2013 by Singapore’s designated forensic psychiatric facility yielded 186 defendants’ TOMM scores. Offence severity, coded into 6 rank-ordered categories, was analyzed in a one-way ANOVA with TOMM score as the dependent variable. There was a statistically significant difference (F(5,87) = 2.473, p = 0.038). A Tukey post-hoc test with Bonferroni correction revealed that defendants facing lower charges (Theft, shoplifting, criminal breach of trust) invested less test-taking effort (TOMM = 37.4±12.3, p = 0.033) compared to those facing the death penalty (TOMM = 46.2±8.1). The surprising finding that those facing death penalties actually invested more test taking effort than those facing relatively minor charges could be due to higher levels of cooperation when faced with death. Alternatively, other legal avenues to escape the death sentence may have been preferred over the mitigatory chance of a psychiatric defence.

Keywords: capital sentencing, offence severity, Singapore, Test of Memory Malingering

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901 Health Literacy for Self-Care by Female Patients Diagnosed with Diabetes at a Selected Hospital in Limpopo Province of South Africa

Authors: Nditsheni Ramakuela, Sonto Maputle, Base Khoza, Augustine Tugli

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Inadequate health literacy can cause difficulties in understanding and compliance to treatment plan. With diabetic condition, self-care activities include behaviours of following a diet plan, avoiding high fat foods, increased exercise, self-glucose monitoring, and foot care. Patients with poor health literacy have difficulty interpreting medication warning labels, following directions on a prescription label and identifying their medications. Difficulties in understanding and performing self-care and health-related activities may ultimately lead to poor health outcomes. The study explored and described factors affecting health literacy and self-care to diabetic regimen by female patients at selected hospital in Limpopo Province of South Africa. Qualitative and explorative research design was used. Female patients who were admitted and diagnosed with diabetes in female medical ward constituted the study population. Non-probability, purposive sampling was used to select 20 female patients diagnosed with diabetes, who were above 18 years and admitted during April–November 2014. An in-depth face-to-face, unstructured interview was used to collect data. Data were analysed using open coding method. Measures to ensure trustworthiness and ethical considerations were adhered to. Findings revealed factors affecting health literacy for diabetic self-care activities amongst patients were; patient, family, disease and facility related. Proposed recommendations were; to strengthen diabetes education and patient-provider partnership. This is important and must be transferred to strengthen self-care activities to fully benefit the patient.

Keywords: compliance, diabetes mellitus, diabetic regimen, health literacy, self activities

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900 Determines of Professional Competencies among Newly Registered Nurses in Teaching Hospital in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Authors: Rana Alkattan

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Aim: This study aims to identify and analyze the factors predicting the professional clinical competency among newly recruited registered nurses. In addition, it aims to explore factors significantly correlated with high and low professional clinical competency score. Method: A descriptive analytical is applied in this study, cross-sectional which conducted between June 2012 and June 2013 at King Abdulaziz University Hospital, as one of the largest governmental university tertiary Hospital in Saudi Arabia. A survey questionnaire was designed to collect data. And then, data were analyzed using the SPSS. Results: A total of the 86 nurses provided valid responses. 69 were female and 17 were male. The majority of the participants in this study were married, from the Philippines, between 20-29 years old. The majority had certified university bachelor’s degree in nursing, as well as had prior experience in nursing between 1 to 5 years. There are two categories emerged from the data, which significantly correlated with nurses' professional competence and development. The first was the newly employed registered nurses demographic characteristic (correlation coefficients 0.154 to 0.470, P < 0.05), while the second was the list of studied environmental factors except 'job rotation factor' (correlation coefficients 0.122 to 0.540, P < 0.01). However, nurses' attitude including motivation and confidence were not associated with nurse's professional competency. Conclusion: that nurses' professional competence development is a process affected by certain personal demographic and environmental factors which will enable newly graduates nurses to provide safe effective patients' care and maintain their career responsibilities.

Keywords: clinical, competence, development nurses professional, registered

Procedia PDF Downloads 339
899 How Different Perceived Affordances of Game Elements Shape Motivation and Performance in Gamified Learning: A Cognitive Evaluation Theory Perspective

Authors: Kibbeum Na

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Previous gamification research has produced mixed results regarding the effectiveness of gamified learning. One possible explanation for this is that individuals perceive the game elements differently. Cognitive Evaluation Theory posits that external rewards can boost or undermine intrinsic motivation, depending on whether the rewards are perceived as informational or controlling. This research tested the hypothesis that game elements can be perceived as either informational feedback or external reward, and the motivational impact differ accordingly. An experiment was conducted using an educational math puzzle to compare the motivation and performance as a result of different perceived affordances game elements. Participants were primed to perceive the game elements as either informational feedback or external reward, and the duration of an attempt to solve the unsolvable puzzle – amotivation indicator – and the puzzle score – a performance indicator–were measured with the game elements incorporated and then without the game elements. Badges and points were deployed as the main game elements. Results showed that, regardless of priming, a significant decrease in performance occurred when the game elements were removed, whereas the control group who solved non-gamified math puzzles maintained their performance. The undermined performance with gamification removal indicates that learners may perceive some game elements as controlling factors irrespective of the way they are presented. The results of the current study also imply that some game elements are better not being implemented to preserve long-term performance. Further research delving into the extrinsic reward-like nature of game elements and its impact on learning motivation is called for.

Keywords: cognitive Evaluation Theory, game elements, gamification, motivation, motivational affordance, performance

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898 Effect of Co-Infection With Intestinal Parasites on COVID-19 Severity: A Prospective Observational Cohort Study

Authors: Teklay Gebrecherkos, Dawit Wolday, Muhamud Abdulkader

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Background: COVID-19 symptomatology in Africa appears significantly less serious than in the industrialized world. Our hypothesis for this phenomenon, being a different, more activated immune system due to parasite infections contributes to reduced COVID-19 outcome. We investigated this hypothesis in an endemic area in sub sub-saharan Africa. Methods: Ethiopian COVID-19 patients were enrolled and screened for intestinal parasites, between July 2020 and March 2021. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with severe COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by RT-PCR on samples obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs, while direct microscopic examination, modified Ritchie concentration, and Kato-Katz methods were used to identify parasites and ova from a fresh stool sample. Ordinal logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between parasite infection and COVID-19 severity. Models were adjusted for sex, age, residence, education level, occupation, body mass index, and comorbidities. Data were analyzed using STATA version 14. P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: A total of 751 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients were enrolled, of whom 284 (37•8%) had an intestinal parasitic infection. Only 27/255 (10•6%) severe COVID-19 patients were co-infected with intestinal parasites, while 257/496 (51•8%) non-severe COVID-19 patients appeared parasite positive (p<0.0001). Patients co-infected with parasites had lower odds of developing severe COVID-19, with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0•14 (95% CI 0•09–0•24; p<0•0001) for all parasites, AOR 0•20 ([95% CI 0•11–0•38]; p<0•0001) for protozoa, and AOR 0•13 ([95% CI 0•07–0•26]; p<0•0001) for helminths. When stratified by species, co-infection with Entamoeba spp., Hymenolopis nana, and Schistosoma mansoni implied a lower probability of developing severe COVID-19. There were 11 deaths (1•5%), and all were among patients without parasites (p=0•009). Conclusions: Parasite co-infection is associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 in African patients. Parasite-driven immunomodulatory responses may mute hyper-inflammation associated with severe COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-COV-2, intestinal parasite, RT-PCR, co-infection

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897 Prosocial Behavior and Satisfaction with School Life in Elementary Children: From the Perspective of Classroom Environment

Authors: Takuma Yamamoto

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Present study investigated the relationship between elementary school children’s prosocial behavior in classroom and satisfaction with school life (approval and victimization from other children) with considering from the perspective of classroom social goal structures (prosocial and compliance goal structures). Participants were 755 elementary school children (393 boys, 362 girls, mean range= 10-12, 5th grader and 6th grader) who were living in Chugoku District, Japan. They filled up questionnaire which was consisted of Murakami, Nishimura and Sakurai’s (2016) prosocial behavior toward friend scale, Kawamura and Tagami’s (1997) satisfaction in classroom scale and Ohtani, Okada, Nakaya and Ito’s (2016) classroom social goal structures scale. Regression lines that satisfaction in classroom is dependent variable and prosocial behavior is independent variable for each class were drawn. There were two types of classroom which children’s prosocial behavior correlated with satisfaction positively and did not. Then one-way MANOVA was conducted to further describe two types of classroom which prosocial behavior increased satisfaction in classroom (type 1) and prosocial behavior decreased satisfaction (type 2). MANOVA for Prosocial goal structure was significant, type 1 > type 2. There were two key findings from this study. First, MANOVA for prosocial goal structure was significant. Second, high score of prosocial goal structure was not necessary condition for the classroom type which children’s prosocial behavior correlated with satisfaction. The implications from these key findings were: (1) in the low prosocial goal structure classroom, children will not behave prosocially because of their negative expectation for the effect of prosocial behavior, (2) this study can be a contribution for classroom management that teachers need to consider about the negative possibilities of prosocial behavior when they try to increase the amount of children’s positive behavior.

Keywords: elementary school children, classroom social goal structure, satisfaction with school life, prosocial behavior

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896 Mechanical and Physical Properties of Wood Composite Panel from Recycled Plastic and Sawdust of Cordia alliodora (Ruiz and Pav.)

Authors: Ahmed Bolaji Alarape, Oluwatobi Damilola Aba, Usman Shehu

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Wood plastic composite boards were made from sawn dust of Cordia alliodora and recycled polyethylene at a mixing ratio of 1.5ratio1, 2.5ratio1 and 3.5ratio1 and nominal densities of 600 kilograms per meter cube, 700 kilograms per meter cube, and 800 kilograms per meter cube, The material was hot pressed at 150-degree celsius to produce board of 250 millimeter by 250 millimeter by 6 millimeter of which 18 boards were produced. The experiment was subject to 3 by 3 factorial experiments in Completely Randomised Design (CRD). Analysis of variance and Duncan Multiple Range Test (DMRT) was adopted by 3 by 3 at 5 percent probability. The strength properties of the boards such as modulus of rupture (MOR) and modulus of elasticity (MOE) were investigated, while the dimensional properties of the board such as the water absorption (WA) and thickness swelling (TS) were as well determined after 12hrs and 24hrs of water immersion. The result showed that the mean values of MOE ranged from 9100.73 Newtons per square millimeters to 12086.96 Newtons per square millimeters while MOR values ranged from 48.26 Newtons per square millimeters to 103.09 Newtons per square millimeters. The values of WA and TS after 12hrs immersion ranged from 1.21 percent to 1.56 percent and 0.00 percent to 0.13 percent, respectively. The values of WA and TS after 24hrs of water immersion ranged from 1.66 percent to 2.99 percent and 0.02 percent to 0.18 percent, respectively. The higher the value of board density and the high-density polythene /sawdust ratio, the stronger, the stiffer and more dimensionally stable the wood plastic composite boards obtained. In addition, as the density of the board increases, the strength property of the boards increases. Hence the board will be suitable for internal construction materials.

Keywords: wood Plastic composite, modulus of rupture, modulus of elasticity, dimensional stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 153
895 Development of a Predictive Model to Prevent Financial Crisis

Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 206