Search results for: error masking probability

Authors: Barbara Peric

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The study of acquiring a third and additional language has garnered significant focus within second language acquisition (SLA) research. Initially, it was commonly viewed as merely an extension of second language acquisition (SLA). However, in the last two decades, numerous researchers have emphasized the need to recognize the unique characteristics of third language acquisition (TLA). This recognition is crucial for understanding the intricate cognitive processes that arise from the interaction of more than two linguistic systems in the learner's mind. This study investigates cross-linguistic influences in the acquisition of Spanish as a fourth language by students who have Croatian as a first language (L1). English as a second language (L2), and Italian as a third language (L3). Observational data suggests that influence or transfer of linguistic elements can arise not only from one's native language (L1) but also from non-native languages. This implies that, for individuals proficient in multiple languages, the native language doesn't consistently hold a superior position. Instead, it should be examined alongside other potential sources of linguistic transfer. Earlier studies have demonstrated that high proficiency in a second language can significantly impact cross-linguistic influences when acquiring a third and additional language. Among the extensively examined factors, the typological relationship stands out as one of the most scrutinized variables. The goal of the present study was to explore whether language typology and formal similarity or proficiency in the second language had a more significant impact on L4 acquisition. Participants in this study were third-year undergraduate students at Rochester Institute of Technology’s subsidiary in Croatia (RIT Croatia). All the participants had exclusively Croatian as L1, English as L2, Italian as L3 and were learning Spanish as L4 at the time of the study. All the participants had a high level of proficiency in English and low level of proficiency in Italian. Based on the error analysis the findings indicate that for some types of lexical errors such as coinage, language typology had a more significant impact and Italian language was the preferred source of transfer despite the law proficiency in that language. For some other types of lexical errors, such as calques, second language proficiency had a more significant impact, and English language was the preferred source of transfer. On the other hand, Croatian, Italian, and Spanish are more similar in the area of morphology due to higher degree of inflection compared to English and the strongest influence of the Croatian language was precisely in the area of morphology. The results emphasize the need to consider linguistic resemblances between the native language (L1) and the third and additional language as well as the learners' proficiency in the second language when developing successful teaching strategies for acquiring the third and additional language. These conclusions add to the expanding knowledge in the realm of Second Language Acquisition (SLA) and offer practical insights for language educators aiming to enhance the effectiveness of learning experiences in acquiring a third and additional language.

Keywords: third and additional language acquisition, cross-linguistic influences, language proficiency, language typology

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Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

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Authors: Igor V. Savchenko, Dmitrii A. Samoshkin

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The active study of the properties of lanthanides has begun in the late 50s of the last century, when methods for their purification were developed and metals with a relatively low content of impurities were obtained. Nevertheless, up to date, many properties of the rare earth metals (REM) have not been experimentally investigated, or insufficiently studied. Currently, the thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity of lanthanides have been studied most thoroughly in the low-temperature region and at moderate temperatures (near 293 K). In the high-temperature region, corresponding to the solid phase, data on the thermophysical characteristics of the REM are fragmentary and in some cases contradictory. Analysis of the literature showed that the data on the thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity of light REM in the liquid state are few in number, little informative (only one point corresponds to the liquid state region), contradictory (the nature of the thermal conductivity change with temperature is not reproduced), as well as the results of measurements diverge significantly beyond the limits of the total errors. Thereby our experimental results allow to fill this gap and to clarify the existing information on the heat transfer coefficients of neodymium and samarium in a wide temperature range from the melting point up to 1770 K. The measurement of the thermal conductivity of investigated metallic melts was carried out by laser flash technique on an automated experimental setup LFA-427. Neodymium sample of brand NM-1 (99.21 wt % purity) and samarium sample of brand SmM-1 (99.94 wt % purity) were cut from metal ingots and then ones were annealed in a vacuum (1 mPa) at a temperature of 1400 K for 3 hours. Measuring cells of a special design from tantalum were used for experiments. Sealing of the cell with a sample inside it was carried out by argon-arc welding in the protective atmosphere of the glovebox. The glovebox was filled with argon with purity of 99.998 vol. %; argon was additionally cleaned up by continuous running through sponge titanium heated to 900–1000 K. The general systematic error in determining the thermal conductivity of investigated metallic melts was 2–5%. The approximation dependences and the reference tables of the thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity coefficients were developed. New reliable experimental data on the transport properties of the REM and their changes in phase transitions can serve as a scientific basis for optimizing the industrial processes of production and use of these materials, as well as ones are of interest for the theory of thermophysical properties of substances, physics of metals, liquids and phase transformations.

Keywords: high temperatures, laser flash technique, liquid state, metallic melt, rare earth metals, thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity

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Authors: Emir Sunguroglu, Merve Sunguroglu, Yesim Aliefendioglu, Harun Tanrivermis

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Basic human needs range from physiological needs such as food, water and shelter to safety needs such as security, protection from natural disasters and even urban terrorism which are extant and not fulfilled even in urban areas where people live civilly in large communities. These basic needs when arose in urban life lead to a different kind of crime set defined as urban crimes. Urban crimes mostly result from differences between socioeconomic conditions in society. Income inequality increases tendency towards urban crimes. Especially in slum areas and suburbs, urban crimes not only threaten public security but they also affect deliverance of public services. It is highlighted that, construction of urban security against problems caused by urban crimes is not only achieved by involvement of urban security in security of the community but also comprises juridical development and staying above a level of legal standards concurrently. The idea of urban transformation emerged as interventions to demolishment and rebuilding of built environment to solve the unhealthy urban environment, inadequate infrastructure and socioeconomic problems came up during the industrialization process. Considering the probability of urbanization process driving citizens to commit crimes, The United Nations Commission on Human Security’s focus on this theme is conferred to be a proper approach. In this study, the analysis and change in security before, through and after urban transformation, which is one of the tools related to urbanization process, is strived to be discussed through the case of Sincan County Saraycik District. The study also aims to suggest improvements to current legislation on public safety, urban resilience, and urban transformation. In spite of Saraycik District residing in a developing County in Ankara, Turkey, from urbanization perspective as well as socioeconomic and demographic indicators the District exhibits a negative view throughout the County and the country. When related to the county, rates of intentional harm reports, burglary reports, the offense of libel and threat reports and narcotic crime reports are higher. The District is defined as ‘crime hotspot’. Interviews with residents of Saraycik claim that the greatest issue of the neighborhood is Public Order and Security (82.44 %). The District becomes prominent with negative aspects, especially with the presence of unlicensed constructions, occurrence of important social issues such as crime and insecurity and complicated lives of inhabitants from poverty and low standard conditions of living. Additionally, the social structure and demographic properties and crime and insecurity of the field have been addressed in this study. Consequently, it is claimed that urban crime rates were related to level of education, employment and household income, poverty trap, physical condition of housing and structuration, accessibility of public services, security, migration, safety in terms of disasters and emphasized that urban transformation is one of the most important tools in order to provide urban security.

Keywords: urban security, urban crimes, urban transformation, Saraycik district

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Authors: Albert Kwabena Osei Konadu

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One of the endemic forest species of the savannah transition zones enlisted by the Convention of International Treaty for Endangered Species (CITES) in Appendix II is the Rosewood, also known as Pterocarpus erinaceus or Krayie. Its economic viability has made it increasingly popular and in high demand. Ghana’s forest resource management regime for these ecozones is mainly on conservation and very little on resource utilization. Consequently, commercial logging management standards are at teething stage and not fully developed, leading to a deficiency in the monitoring of logging operations and quantification of harvested trees volumes. Tree information form (TIF); a volume estimation and tracking regime, has proven to be an effective sustainable management tool for regulating timber resource extraction in the high forest zones of the country. This work aims to generate TIF that can track and capture requisite parameters to accurately estimate the volume of harvested rosewood within forest savannah transition zones. Tree information forms were created on three scenarios of individual billets, stacked billets and conveying vessel basis. The study was limited by the usage of regulators assigned volume as benchmark and also fraught with potential volume measurement error in the stacked billet scenario due to the existence of spaces within packed billets. These TIFs were field-tested to deduce the most viable option for the tracking and estimation of harvested volumes of rosewood using the smallian and cubic volume estimation formula. Overall, four districts were covered with individual billets, stacked billets and conveying vessel scenarios registering mean volumes of 25.83m3,45.08m3 and 32.6m3, respectively. These adduced volumes were validated by benchmarking to assigned volumes of the Forestry Commission of Ghana and known standard volumes of conveying vessels. The results did indicate an underestimation of extracted volumes under the quotas regime, a situation that could lead to unintended overexploitation of the species. The research revealed conveying vessels route is the most viable volume estimation and tracking regime for the sustainable management of the Pterocarpous erinaceus species as it provided a more practical volume estimate and data extraction protocol.

Keywords: cubic volume formula, smallian volume formula, pterocarpus erinaceus, tree information form, forest transition and savannah zones, harvested tree volume

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Authors: Salwa Mohamed Salah Eldin, Howida Kamal Ibrahim

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Introduction: Major depressive disorder affects high proportion of the world’s population presenting cost load in health care. Extended release venlafaxine is more convenient and could reduce discontinuation syndrome. The once daily dosing also reduces the potential for adverse events such as nausea due to reduced Cmax. Venlafaxine is an effective first-line agent in the treatment of depression. A once daily formulation was designed to enhance patient compliance. Complexing with a resin was suggested to improve loading of the water soluble drug. The formulated systems were thoroughly evaluated in vitro to prove superiority to previous trials and were compared to the commercial extended release product in experimental animals. Materials and Methods: Venlafaxine-resinates were prepared using Dowex®50WX4-400 and Dowex®50WX8-100 at drug to resin weight ratio of 1: 1. The prepared resinates were evaluated for their drug content, particle shape and surface properties and in vitro release profile in gradient pH. The release kinetics and mechanism were evaluated. Venlafaxine-Dowex® resinates were encapsulated using O/W solvent evaporation technique. Poly-ε-caprolactone, Poly(D, L-lactide-co-glycolide) ester, Poly(D, L-lactide) ester and Eudragit®RS100 were used as coating polymers alone and in combination. Drug-resinate microcapsules were evaluated for morphology, entrapment efficiency and in-vitro release profile. The selected formula was tested in rabbits using a randomized, single-dose, 2-way crossover study against Effexor-XR tablets under fasting condition. Results and Discussion: The equilibrium time was 30 min for Dowex®50WX4-400 and 90 min for Dowex®50WX8-100. The percentage drug loaded was 93.96 and 83.56% for both resins, respectively. Both drug-Dowex® resintes were efficient in sustaining venlafaxine release in comparison to the free drug (up to 8h.). Dowex®50WX4-400 based venlafaxine-resinate was selected for further encapsulation to optimize the release profile for once daily dosing and to lower the burst effect. The selected formula (coated with a mixture of Eudragit RS and PLGA in a ratio of 50/50) was chosen by applying a group of mathematical equations according to targeted values. It recorded the minimum burst effect, the maximum MDT (Mean dissolution time) and a Q24h (percentage drug released after 24 hours) between 95 and 100%. The 90% confidence intervals for the test/reference mean ratio of the log-transformed data of AUC0–24 and AUC0−∞ are within (0.8–1.25), which satisfies the bioequivalence criteria. Conclusion: The optimized formula could be a promising extended release form of the water soluble, short half lived venlafaxine. Being a multiple unit formulation, it lowers the probability of dose dumping and reduces the inter-subject variability in absorption.

Keywords: biodegradable polymers, cation-exchange resin, microencapsulation, venlafaxine hcl

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Authors: Ercan Kızılay, Mustafa Demi̇rel, Selçuk Coşkun

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Railway signaling systems consist of vital products that regulate railway traffic and provide safe route arrangements and maneuvers of trains. SIL 4 signal lamps are produced by many manufacturers today. There is a need for systems that enable these signal lamps to be controlled by commands from the interlocking. These systems should act as fail-safe and give error indications to the interlocking system when an unexpected situation occurs for the safe operation of railway systems from the RAMS perspective. In the past, driving and proving the lamp in relay-based systems was typically done via signaling relays. Today, the proving of lamps is done by comparing the current values read over the return circuit, the lower and upper threshold values. The purpose is an analog electronic object controller with the possibility of easy integration with vital systems and the signal lamp itself. During the study, the EN50126 standard approach was considered, and the concept, definition, risk analysis, requirements, architecture, design, and prototyping were performed throughout this study. FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) and FTA (Fault Tree) Analysis) have been used for safety analysis in accordance with EN 50129. Concerning these analyzes, the 1oo2D reactive fail-safe hardware design of a controller has been researched. Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) effects on the functional safety of equipment, insulation coordination, and over-voltage protection were discussed during hardware design according to EN 50124 and EN 50122 standards. As vital equipment for railway signaling, railway signal object controllers should be developed according to EN 50126 and EN 50129 standards which identify the steps and requirements of the development in accordance with the SIL 4(Safety Integrity Level) target. In conclusion of this study, an analog railway signal object controller, which takes command from the interlocking system, is processed in driver cards. Driver cards arrange the voltage level according to desired visibility by means of semiconductors. Additionally, prover cards evaluate the current upper and lower thresholds. Evaluated values are processed via logic gates which are composed as 1oo2D by means of analog electronic technologies. This logic evaluates the voltage level of the lamp and mitigates the risks of undue dimming.

Keywords: object controller, railway electronic, analog electronic, safety, railway signal

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Authors: Tesfaldet Mekonnen Estifanos, Chen Hui, Afewerki Weldezgi

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Background: Youth in general and young females in particular, remain at the center of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Sexual risk-taking among young unmarried women is relatively high and are the most vulnerable and highly exposed to HIV/AIDS. Improvements in the status of HIV/AIDS knowledge and acceptance attitude towards people living with HIV (PLWHIV) plays a great role in averting the incidence of HIV/AIDS. Thus, the aim of the study was to explore the level and correlates of HIV/AIDS knowledge and accepting attitude toward PLWHIV. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the Uganda Demographic Health Survey 2016 (UDHS-2016). National level representative household surveys using a multistage cluster probability sampling method, face to face interviews with standard questionnaires were performed. Unmarried women aged 15-24 years with a sample size of 2019 were selected from the total sample of 8674 women aged 15-49 years and were analyzed using SPSS version 23. Independent variables such as age, religion, educational level, residence, and wealth index were included. Two binary outcome variables (comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge and acceptance attitude toward PLWHIV) were utilized. We used the chi-square test as well as multivariate regression analysis to explore correlations of explanatory variables with the outcome variables. The results were reported by odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI), taking a p-value less than 0.05 as significant. Results: Almost all (99.3%) of the unmarried women aged 15-24 years were aware of HIV/AIDS, but only 51.2% had adequate comprehensive knowledge on HIV/AIDS. Only 69.4% knew both methods: using a condom every time had sex, and having only one faithful uninfected partner can prevent HIV/AIDS transmission. About 66.6% of the unmarried women reject at least two common local misconceptions about HIV/AIDS. Moreover, an alarmingly few (20.3%) of the respondents had a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV. On multivariate analysis, age (20-24 years), living in urban, being educated and wealthier, were predictors of having adequate comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge. On the other hand, research participants with adequate comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS were highly likely (OR, 1.94 95% CI, 1.52-2.46) to have a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV than those with inadequate knowledge. Respondents with no education, Muslim, and Pentecostal religion were emerged less likely to have a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV. Conclusion: This study found out the highly accepted level of awareness, but the knowledge and positive acceptance attitude are not encouraging. Thus, expanding access to comprehensive sexuality and strengthening educational campaigns on HIV/AIDS in communities, health facilities, and schools is needed with a greater focus on disadvantaged women having low educational level, poor socioeconomic status, and those residing in rural areas. Sexual risk behaviors among the most affected people - young women have also a role in the spread of HIV/AIDS. Hence, further research assessing the significant contributing factors for sexual risk-taking might have a positive impact on the fight against HIV/AIDS.

Keywords: acceptance attitude, HIV/AIDS, knowledge, unmarried women

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Authors: Ke Zhang, Yongli Zhu

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Due to rapid load growths in today’s highly electrified societies and the requirement for green energy sources, large-scale wind farm power transmission system is constantly developing. This system is a typical multi-terminal power supply system, whose structure of the network topology of transmission lines is complex. What’s more, it locates in the complex terrain of mountains and grasslands, thus increasing the possibility of transmission line faults and finding the fault location with difficulty after the faults and resulting in an extremely serious phenomenon of abandoning the wind. In order to solve these problems, a fault location method for multi-terminal transmission line based on wind farm characteristics and improved single-ended traveling wave positioning method is proposed. Through studying the zero sequence current characteristics by using the characteristics of the grounding transformer(GT) in the existing large-scale wind farms, it is obtained that the criterion for judging the fault interval of the multi-terminal transmission line. When a ground short-circuit fault occurs, there is only zero sequence current on the path between GT and the fault point. Therefore, the interval where the fault point exists is obtained by determining the path of the zero sequence current. After determining the fault interval, The location of the short-circuit fault point is calculated by the traveling wave method. However, this article uses an improved traveling wave method. It makes the positioning accuracy more accurate by combining the single-ended traveling wave method with double-ended electrical data. What’s more, a method of calculating the traveling wave velocity is deduced according to the above improvements (it is the actual wave velocity in theory). The improvement of the traveling wave velocity calculation method further improves the positioning accuracy. Compared with the traditional positioning method, the average positioning error of this method is reduced by 30%.This method overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional method in poor fault location of wind farm transmission lines. In addition, it is more accurate than the traditional fixed wave velocity method in the calculation of the traveling wave velocity. It can calculate the wave velocity in real time according to the scene and solve the traveling wave velocity can’t be updated with the environment and real-time update. The method is verified in PSCAD/EMTDC.

Keywords: grounding transformer, multi-terminal transmission line, short circuit fault location, traveling wave velocity, wind farm

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Authors: Collen Tebogo Masilo, Erik Schmikl

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The demand for the DataMiner product by customers has presented a great challenge for the vendor in Skyline Communications in deploying its limited resources in the form of human resources, financial resources, and office space, to achieve high organisational performance in all its international operations. The rapid growth of the organisation has been unable to efficiently support its existing customers across the globe, and provide services to new customers, due to the limited number of approximately one hundred employees in its employ. The combined descriptive and explanatory case study research methods were selected as research design, making use of a survey questionnaire which was distributed to a sample of 100 respondents. A sample return of 89 respondents was achieved. The sampling method employed was non-probability sampling, using the convenient sampling method. Frequency analysis and correlation between the subscales (the four themes) were used for statistical analysis to interpret the data. The investigation was conducted into mechanisms that can be deployed to balance the high demand for products and the limited production capacity of the company’s Belgian operations across four aspects: demand management strategies, capacity management strategies, communication methods that can be used to align a sales management department, and reward systems in use to improve employee performance. The conclusions derived from the theme ‘demand management strategies’ are that the company is fully aware of the future market demand for its products. However, there seems to be no evidence that there is proper demand forecasting conducted within the organisation. The conclusions derived from the theme 'capacity management strategies' are that employees always have a lot of work to complete during office hours, and, also, employees seem to need help from colleagues with urgent tasks. This indicates that employees often work on unplanned tasks and multiple projects. Conclusions derived from the theme 'communication methods used to align sales management department with operations' are that communication is not good throughout the organisation. This means that information often stays with management, and does not reach non-management employees. This also means that there is a lack of smooth synergy as expected and a lack of good communication between the sales department and the projects office. This has a direct impact on the delivery of projects to customers by the operations department. The conclusions derived from the theme ‘employee reward systems’ are that employees are motivated, and feel that they add value in their current functions. There are currently no measures in place to identify unhappy employees, and there are also no proper reward systems in place which are linked to a performance management system. The research has made a contribution to the body of research by exploring the impact of the four sub-variables and their interaction on the challenges of organisational productivity, in particular where an organisation experiences a capacity problem during its growth stage during tough economic conditions. Recommendations were made which, if implemented by management, could further enhance the organisation’s sustained competitive operations.

Keywords: high demand for products, high organisational performance, limited production capacity, limited resources

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Authors: M. Aboalazayem, Essam A. Gouda, Ahmed M. Moussa, Amr E. Flifl

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Field data collecting is considered one of the most difficult work due to the difficulty of accessing large zones such as large lakes. Also, it is well known that the cost of obtaining field data is very expensive. Remotely monitoring of lake water quality (WQ) provides an economically feasible approach comparing to field data collection. Researchers have shown that lake WQ can be properly monitored via Remote sensing (RS) analyses. Using satellite images as a method of WQ detection provides a realistic technique to measure quality parameters across huge areas. Landsat (LS) data provides full free access to often occurring and repeating satellite photos. This enables researchers to undertake large-scale temporal comparisons of parameters related to lake WQ. Satellite measurements have been extensively utilized to develop algorithms for predicting critical water quality parameters (WQPs). The goal of this paper is to use RS to derive WQ indicators in Aswan High Dam Reservoir (AHDR), which is considered Egypt's primary and strategic reservoir of freshwater. This study focuses on using Landsat8 (L-8) band surface reflectance (SR) observations to predict water-quality characteristics which are limited to Turbidity (TUR), total suspended solids (TSS), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). ArcGIS pro is used to retrieve L-8 SR data for the study region. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to derive new correlations between observed optical water-quality indicators in April and L-8 SR which were atmospherically corrected by values of various bands, band ratios, and or combinations. Field measurements taken in the month of May were used to validate WQP obtained from SR data of L-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) satellite. The findings demonstrate a strong correlation between indicators of WQ and L-8 .For TUR, the best validation correlation with OLI SR bands blue, green, and red, were derived with high values of Coefficient of correlation (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) equal 0.96 and 3.1 NTU, respectively. For TSS, Two equations were strongly correlated and verified with band ratios and combinations. A logarithm of the ratio of blue and green SR was determined to be the best performing model with values of R2 and RMSE equal to 0.9861 and 1.84 mg/l, respectively. For Chl-a, eight methods were presented for calculating its value within the study area. A mix of blue, red, shortwave infrared 1(SWR1) and panchromatic SR yielded the greatest validation results with values of R2 and RMSE equal 0.98 and 1.4 mg/l, respectively.

Keywords: remote sensing, landsat 8, nasser lake, water quality

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Authors: M. Sulieman, H. Arabiyat, H. Ali, K. Potiszil, I. Abbas, R. English, P. King, I. Brown, P. Drew

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Introduction: The incidence of breast ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS) has been increasing; it currently represents up 20-25% of all breast carcinomas. Some aspects of DCIS management are still controversial, mainly due to the heterogeneity of its clinical presentation and of its biological and pathological characteristics. In DCIS, histological diagnosis obtained preoperatively, carries the risk of sampling error if the presence of invasive cancer is subsequently diagnosed. The mammographic extent over than 4–5 cm and the presence of architectural distortion, focal asymmetric density or mass on mammography are proven important risk factors of preoperative histological under staging. Intracystic papillary cancer (IPC) is a rare form of breast carcinoma. Despite being previously compared to DCIS it has been shown to present histologically with invasion of the basement membrane and even metastasis. SLNB – Carries the risk of associated comorbidity that should be considered when planning surgery for DCIS and IPC. Objectives: The aim of this Audit was to better define a ‘high risk’ group of patients with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing breast conserving surgery, who would benefit from sentinel node biopsy. Method: Retrospective data collection of all patients with ductal carcinoma in situ over 5 years. 636 patients identified, and after exclusion criteria applied: 394 patients were included. High risk defined as: Extensive micro-calcification >40mm OR any mass forming DCIS. IPC: Winpath search from for the term ‘papillary carcinoma’ in any breast specimen for 5 years duration;.29 patients were included in this group. Results: DCIS: 188 deemed high risk due to >40mm calcification or a mass forming (radiological or palpable) 61% of those had a mastectomy and 32% BCS. Overall, in that high-risk group - the number with invasive disease was 38%. Of those high-risk DCIS pts 85% had a SLN - 80% at the time of surgery and 5% at a second operation. For the BCS patients - 42% had SLN at time of surgery and 13% (8 patients) at a second operation. 15 (7.9%) pts in the high-risk group had a positive SLNB, 11 having a mastectomy and 4 having BCS. IPC: The provisional diagnosis of encysted papillary carcinoma is upgraded to an invasive carcinoma on final histology in around a third of cases. This has may have implications when deciding whether to offer sentinel node removal at the time of therapeutic surgery. Conclusions: We have defined a ‘high risk’ group of pts with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing BCS, who would benefit from SLNB at the time of the surgery. In patients with high-risk features; the risk of invasive disease is up to 40% but the risk of nodal involvement is approximately 8%. The risk of morbidity from SLN is up to about 5% especially the risk of lymphedema.

Keywords: breast ductal carcinoma in Situ (DCIS), intracystic papillary carcinoma (IPC), sentinel node biopsy (SLNB), high-risk, non-invasive, cancer disease

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Authors: Kotaro Sasai, Daijiro Mizutani, Kiyoyuki Kaito

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Expressways in Japan have been built in an accelerating manner since the 1960s with the aid of rapid economic growth. About 40 percent in length of expressways in Japan is now 30 years and older and has become superannuated. Time-related deterioration has therefore reached to a degree that administrators, from a standpoint of operation and maintenance, are forced to take prompt measures on a large scale aiming at repairing inner damage deep in pavements. These measures have already been performed for bridge management in Japan and are also expected to be embodied for pavement management. Thus, planning methods for the measures are increasingly demanded. Deterioration of layers around road surface such as surface course and binder course is brought about at the early stages of whole pavement deterioration process, around 10 to 30 years after construction. These layers have been repaired primarily because inner damage usually becomes significant after outer damage, and because surveys for measuring inner damage such as Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) survey and open-cut survey are costly and time-consuming process, which has made it difficult for administrators to focus on inner damage as much as they have been supposed to. As expressways today have serious time-related deterioration within them deriving from the long time span since they started to be used, it is obvious the idea of repairing layers deep in pavements such as base course and subgrade must be taken into consideration when planning maintenance on a large scale. This sort of maintenance requires precisely predicting degrees of deterioration as well as grasping the present situations of pavements. Methods for predicting deterioration are determined to be either mechanical or statistical. While few mechanical models have been presented, as far as the authors know of, previous studies have presented statistical methods for predicting deterioration in pavements. One describes deterioration process by estimating Markov deterioration hazard model, while another study illustrates it by estimating Proportional deterioration hazard model. Both of the studies analyze deflection data obtained from FWD surveys and present statistical methods for predicting deterioration process of layers around road surface. However, layers of base course and subgrade remain unanalyzed. In this study, data collected from FWD surveys are analyzed to predict deterioration process of layers deep in pavements in addition to surface layers by a means of estimating a deterioration hazard model using continuous indexes. This model can prevent the loss of information of data when setting rating categories in Markov deterioration hazard model when evaluating degrees of deterioration in roadbeds and subgrades. As a result of portraying continuous indexes, the model can predict deterioration in each layer of pavements and evaluate it quantitatively. Additionally, as the model can also depict probability distribution of the indexes at an arbitrary point and establish a risk control level arbitrarily, it is expected that this study will provide knowledge like life cycle cost and informative content during decision making process referring to where to do maintenance on as well as when.

Keywords: deterioration hazard model, falling weight deflectometer, inner damage, load bearing capacity, pavement

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Authors: Ayon Mukherjee

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Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs use the available responses to skew the treatment allocation in a clinical trial in towards treatment found at an interim stage to be best for a given patient's covariate profile. Extensive research has been done on various aspects of CARA designs with the patient responses assumed to follow a parametric model. However, ranges of application for such designs are limited in real-life clinical trials where the responses infrequently fit a certain parametric form. On the other hand, robust estimates for the covariate-adjusted treatment effects are obtained from the parametric assumption. To balance these two requirements, designs are developed which are free from distributional assumptions about the survival responses, relying only on the assumption of proportional hazards for the two treatment arms. The proposed designs are developed by deriving two types of optimum allocation designs, and also by using a distribution function to link the past allocation, covariate and response histories to the present allocation. The optimal designs are based on biased coin procedures, with a bias towards the better treatment arm. These are the doubly-adaptive biased coin design (DBCD) and the efficient randomized adaptive design (ERADE). The treatment allocation proportions for these designs converge to the expected target values, which are functions of the Cox regression coefficients that are estimated sequentially. These expected target values are derived based on constrained optimization problems and are updated as information accrues with sequential arrival of patients. The design based on the link function is derived using the distribution function of a probit model whose parameters are adjusted based on the covariate profile of the incoming patient. To apply such designs, the treatment allocation probabilities are sequentially modified based on the treatment allocation history, response history, previous patients’ covariates and also the covariates of the incoming patient. Given these information, an expression is obtained for the conditional probability of a patient allocation to a treatment arm. Based on simulation studies, it is found that the ERADE is preferable to the DBCD when the main aim is to minimize the variance of the observed allocation proportion and to maximize the power of the Wald test for a treatment difference. However, the former procedure being discrete tends to be slower in converging towards the expected target allocation proportion. The link function based design achieves the highest skewness of patient allocation to the best treatment arm and thus ethically is the best design. Other comparative merits of the proposed designs have been highlighted and their preferred areas of application are discussed. It is concluded that the proposed CARA designs can be considered as suitable alternatives to the traditional balanced randomization designs in survival trials in terms of the power of the Wald test, provided that response data are available during the recruitment phase of the trial to enable adaptations to the designs. Moreover, the proposed designs enable more patients to get treated with the better treatment during the trial thus making the designs more ethically attractive to the patients. An existing clinical trial has been redesigned using these methods.

Keywords: censored response, Cox regression, efficiency, ethics, optimal allocation, power, variability

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Authors: S. Agarwal, A. Rani

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Catechol is a natural polyphenolic compound that widely exists in higher plants such as teas, vegetables, fruits, tobaccos, and some traditional Chinese medicines. The fly ash-based zeolites are capable of absorbing a wide range of pollutants. But the process of zeolite synthesis is time-consuming and requires technical setups by the industries. The marketed costs of zeolites are quite high restricting its use by small-scale industries for the removal of phenolic compounds. The present research proposes a simple method of alkaline treatment of FA to produce an effective adsorbent for catechol removal from wastewater. The experimental parameter such as pH, temperature, initial concentration and adsorbent dose on the removal of catechol were studied in batch reactor. For this purpose the adsorbent materials were mixed with aqueous solutions containing catechol ranging in 50 – 200 mg/L initial concentrations and then shaken continuously in a thermostatic Orbital Incubator Shaker at 30 ± 0.1 °C for 24 h. The samples were withdrawn from the shaker at predetermined time interval and separated by centrifugation (Centrifuge machine MBL-20) at 2000 rpm for 4 min. to yield a clear supernatant for analysis of the equilibrium concentrations of the solutes. The concentrations were measured with Double Beam UV/Visible spectrophotometer (model Spectrscan UV 2600/02) at the wavelength of 275 nm for catechol. In the present study, the use of low-cost adsorbent (BTFA) derived from coal fly ash (FA), has been investigated as a substitute of expensive methods for the sequestration of catechol. The FA and BTFA adsorbents were well characterized by XRF, FE-SEM with EDX, FTIR, and surface area and porosity measurement which proves the chemical constituents, functional groups and morphology of the adsorbents. The catechol adsorption capacities of synthesized BTFA and native material were determined. The adsorption was slightly increased with an increase in pH value. The monolayer adsorption capacities of FA and BTFA for catechol were 100 mg g⁻¹ and 333.33 mg g⁻¹ respectively, and maximum adsorption occurs within 60 minutes for both adsorbents used in this test. The equilibrium data are fitted by Freundlich isotherm found on the basis of error analysis (RMSE, SSE, and χ²). Adsorption was found to be spontaneous and exothermic on the basis of thermodynamic parameters (ΔG°, ΔS°, and ΔH°). Pseudo-second-order kinetic model better fitted the data for both FA and BTFA. BTFA showed large adsorptive characteristics, high separation selectivity, and excellent recyclability than FA. These findings indicate that BTFA could be employed as an effective and inexpensive adsorbent for the removal of catechol from wastewater.

Keywords: catechol, fly ash, isotherms, kinetics, thermodynamic parameters

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Authors: Vikas Kumar, Kailash Chandra, Kaomud Tyagi

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The insect order Thysanoptera includes small insects commonly called thrips. As insect vectors, only thrips are capable of Tospoviruses transmission (genus Tospovirus, family Bunyaviridae) affecting various crops. Currently, fifteen species of subfamily Thripinae (Thripidae) have been reported as vectors for tospoviruses. Frankliniella schultzei, which is reported as act as a vector for at least five tospovirses, have been suspected to be a species complex with more than one species. It is one of the historical unresolved issues where, two species namely, F. schultzei Trybom and F. sulphurea Schmutz were erected from South Africa and Srilanaka respectively. These two species were considered to be valid until 1968 when sulphurea was treated as colour morph (pale form) and synonymised under schultzei (dark form) However, these two have been considered as valid species by some of the thrips workers. Parallel studies have indicated that brown form of schultzei is a vector for tospoviruses while yellow form is a non-vector. However, recent studies have shown that yellow populations have also been documented as vectors. In view of all these facts, it is highly important to have a clear understanding whether these colour forms represent true species or merely different populations with different vector carrying capacities and whether there is some hidden diversity in 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex'. In this study, we aim to study the 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex' with molecular spectacles with DNA data from India and Australia and Africa. A total of fifty-five specimens was collected from diverse locations in India and Australia. We generated molecular data using partial fragments of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene (mtCOI) and 28S rRNA gene. For COI dataset, there were seventy-four sequences, out of which data on fifty-five was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. All the four different tree construction methods: neighbor-joining, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis, yielded the same tree topology and produced five cryptic species with high genetic divergence. For, rDNA, there were forty-five sequences, out of which data on thirty-nine was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. The four tree building methods yielded four cryptic species with high bootstrap support value/posterior probability. Here we could not retrieve one cryptic species from South Africa as we could not generate data on rDNA from South Africa and sequence for rDNA from African region were not available in the database. The results of multiple species delimitation methods (barcode index numbers, automatic barcode gap discovery, general mixed Yule-coalescent, and Poisson-tree-processes) also supported the phylogenetic data and produced 5 and 4 Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs) for mtCOI and 28S dataset respectively. These results of our study indicate the likelihood that F. sulphurea may be a valid species, however, more morphological and molecular data is required on specimens from type localities of these two species and comparison with type specimens.

Keywords: DNA barcoding, species complex, thrips, species delimitation

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Ruairi J. McMillan

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Introduction: This critical analysis aims to ascertain how well neuroanatomical aetiologies are communicated within 20 case reports of aphasia. Neuroanatomical visualisations based on dissected brain specimens were produced and combined with white matter tract and vascular taxonomies of function in order to address the most consistently underreported features found within the aphasic case study reports. Together, these approaches are intended to integrate aphasiological knowledge from the past 20 years with aphasiological diagnostics, and to act as prototypal resources for both researchers and clinical professionals. The medico-legal precedent for aphasia diagnostics under Canadian, US and UK case law and the neuroimaging/neurological diagnostics relative to the functional capacity of aphasic patients are discussed in relation to the major findings of the literary analysis, neuroimaging protocols in clinical use today, and the neuroanatomical aetiologies of different aphasias. Basic Methodology: Literature searches of relevant scientific databases (e.g, OVID medline) were carried out using search terms such as aphasia case study (year) & stroke induced aphasia case study. A series of 7 diagnostic reporting criteria were formulated, and the resulting case studies were scored / 7 alongside clinical stroke criteria. In order to focus on the diagnostic assessment of the patient’s condition, only the case report proper (not the discussion) was used to quantify results. Statistical testing established if specific reporting criteria were associated with higher overall scores and potentially inferable increases in quality of reporting. Statistical testing of whether criteria scores were associated with an unclear/adjusted diagnosis were also tested, as well as the probability of a given criterion deviating from an expected estimate. Major Findings: The quantitative analysis of neuroanatomically driven diagnostics in case studies of aphasia revealed particularly low scores in the connection of neuroanatomical functions to aphasiological assessment (10%), and in the inclusion of white matter tracts within neuroimaging or assessment diagnostics (30%). Case studies which included clinical mention of white matter tracts within the report itself were distributed among higher scoring cases, as were case studies which (as clinically indicated) related the affected vascular region to the brain parenchyma of the language network. Concluding Statement: These findings indicate that certain neuroanatomical functions are integrated less often within the patient report than others, despite a precedent for well-integrated neuroanatomical aphasiology also being found among the case studies sampled, and despite these functions being clinically essential in diagnostic neuroimaging and aphasiological assessment. Therefore, ultimately the integration and specificity of aetiological neuroanatomy may contribute positively to the capacity and autonomy of aphasic patients as well as their clinicians. The integration of a full aetiological neuroanatomy within the reporting of aphasias may improve patient outcomes and sustain autonomy in the event of medico-ethical investigation.

Keywords: aphasia, language network, functional neuroanatomy, aphasiological diagnostics, medico-legal ethics

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Authors: Weeradej Cheewapattananuwong, Keeree Srivichian, Godchamon Somchai, Wasin Phusanong, Nontawat Yoddamnern

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Natural rubber used for traffic devices in Thailand has been developed and researched for several years. When compared with Dry Rubber Content (DRC), the quality of Rib Smoked Sheet (RSS) is better. However, the cost of admixtures, especially CaCO₃ and sulphur, is higher than the cost of RSS itself. In this research, Flexible Guideposts and Rubber Fender Barriers (RFB) are taken into consideration. In case of flexible guideposts, the materials used are both RSS and DRC60%, but for RFB, only RSS is used due to the controlled performance tests. The objective of flexible guideposts and RFB is to decrease a number of accidents, fatal rates, and serious injuries. Functions of both devices are to save road users and vehicles as well as to absorb impact forces from vehicles so as to decrease of serious road accidents. This leads to the mitigation methods to remedy the injury of motorists, form severity to moderate one. The solution is to find the best practice of traffic devices using natural rubber under the engineering concepts. In addition, the performances of materials, such as tensile strength and durability, are calculated for the modulus of elasticity and properties. In the laboratory, the simulation of crashes, finite element of materials, LRFD, and concrete technology methods are taken into account. After calculation, the trials' compositions of materials are mixed and tested in the laboratory. The tensile test, compressive test, and weathering or durability test are followed and based on ASTM. Furthermore, the Cycle-Repetition Test of Flexible Guideposts will be taken into consideration. The final decision is to fabricate all materials and have a real test section in the field. In RFB test, there will be 13 crash tests, 7 Pickup Truck tests, and 6 Motorcycle Tests. The test of vehicular crashes happens for the first time in Thailand, applying the trial and error methods; for example, the road crash test under the standard of NCHRP-TL3 (100 kph) is changed to the MASH 2016. This is owing to the fact that MASH 2016 is better than NCHRP in terms of speed, types, and weight of vehicles and the angle of crash. In the processes of MASH, Test Level 6 (TL-6), which is composed of 2,270 kg Pickup Truck, 100 kph, and 25 degree of crash-angle is selected. The final test for real crash will be done, and the whole system will be evaluated again in Korea. The researchers hope that the number of road accidents will decrease, and Thailand will be no more in the top tenth ranking of road accidents in the world.

Keywords: LRFD, load and resistance factor design, ASTM, american society for testing and materials, NCHRP, national cooperation highway research program, MASH, manual for assessing safety hardware

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Man Fung Ho, Lap So, Jiaqi Zhang, Yuheng Zhao, Huiyang Lu, Tat Shing Choi, K. Y. Michael Wong

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Nowadays, a tremendous amount of data is available in the transportation system, enabling the development of various machine learning approaches to make short-term latency predictions. A natural question is then the choice of relevant information to enable accurate predictions. Using traffic data collected from the Taiwan Freeway System, we consider the prediction of short-term latency of a freeway segment with a length of 17 km covering 5 measurement points, each collecting vehicle-by-vehicle data through the electronic toll collection system. The processed data include the past latencies of the freeway segment with different time lags, the traffic conditions of the individual segments (the accumulations, the traffic fluxes, the entrance and exit rates), the total accumulations, and the weekday latency profiles obtained by Gaussian process regression of past data. We arrive at several important conclusions about how data should be refined to obtain accurate predictions, which have implications for future system-wide latency predictions. (1) We find that the prediction of median latency is much more accurate and meaningful than the prediction of average latency, as the latter is plagued by outliers. This is verified by machine-learning prediction using XGBoost that yields a 35% improvement in the mean square error of the 5-minute averaged latencies. (2) We find that the median latency of the segment 15 minutes ago is a very good baseline for performance comparison, and we have evidence that further improvement is achieved by machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). (3) By analyzing the feature importance score in XGBoost and calculating the mutual information between the inputs and the latencies to be predicted, we identify a sequence of inputs ranked in importance. It confirms that the past latencies are most informative of the predicted latencies, followed by the total accumulation, whereas inputs such as the entrance and exit rates are uninformative. It also confirms that the inputs are much less informative of the average latencies than the median latencies. (4) For predicting the latencies of segments composed of two or three sub-segments, summing up the predicted latencies of each sub-segment is more accurate than the one-step prediction of the whole segment, especially with the latency prediction of the downstream sub-segments trained to anticipate latencies several minutes ahead. The duration of the anticipation time is an increasing function of the traveling time of the upstream segment. The above findings have important implications to predicting the full set of latencies among the various locations in the freeway system.

Keywords: data refinement, machine learning, mutual information, short-term latency prediction

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Authors: Mareen Brosterhaus, Antje Hammer, Steffen Kalina, Stefan Grau, Anjali A. Roeth, Hany Ashmawy, Thomas Gross, Marcel Binnebosel, Wolfram T. Knoefel, Tanja Manser

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Background: The identification of critical incidents in hospitals is an essential component of improving patient safety. To date, various methods have been used to measure and characterize such critical incidents. These methods are often viewed by physicians and nurses as external quality assurance, and this creates obstacles to the reporting events and the implementation of recommendations in practice. One way to overcome this problem is to use tools that directly involve staff in measuring indicators of quality and safety of care in the department. One such instrument is the global trigger tool (GTT), which helps physicians and nurses identify adverse events by systematically reviewing randomly selected patient records. Based on so-called ‘triggers’ (warning signals), indications of adverse events can be given. While the tool is already used internationally, its implementation in German hospitals has been very limited. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the feasibility and potential of the global trigger tool for identifying adverse events in German hospitals. Methods: A total of 120 patient records were randomly selected from two surgical, and one neurosurgery, departments of three university hospitals in Germany over a period of two months per department between January and July, 2017. The records were reviewed using an adaptation of the German version of the Institute for Healthcare Improvement Global Trigger Tool to identify triggers and adverse event rates per 1000 patient days and per 100 admissions. The severity of adverse events was classified using the National Coordinating Council for Medication Error Reporting and Prevention. Results: A total of 53 adverse events were detected in the three departments. This corresponded to adverse event rates of 25.5-72.1 per 1000 patient-days and from 25.0 to 60.0 per 100 admissions across the three departments. 98.1% of identified adverse events were associated with non-permanent harm without (Category E–71.7%) or with (Category F–26.4%) the need for prolonged hospitalization. One adverse event (1.9%) was associated with potentially permanent harm to the patient. We also identified practical challenges in the implementation of the tool, such as the need for adaptation of the global trigger tool to the respective department. Conclusions: The global trigger tool is feasible and an effective instrument for quality measurement when adapted to the departmental specifics. Based on our experience, we recommend a continuous use of the tool thereby directly involving clinicians in quality improvement.

Keywords: adverse events, global trigger tool, patient safety, record review

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Authors: Saahith M. S., Sivakami R.

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In the realm of football analytics, particularly focusing on predicting football player performance, the ability to forecast player success accurately is of paramount importance for teams, managers, and fans. This study introduces an elaborate examination of predicting football player performance through the integration of data visualization methods and machine learning algorithms. The research entails the compilation of an extensive dataset comprising player attributes, conducting data preprocessing, feature selection, model selection, and model training to construct predictive models. The analysis within this study will involve delving into feature significance using methodologies like Select Best and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to pinpoint pertinent attributes for predicting player performance. Various machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest, Decision Tree, Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), will be explored to develop predictive models. The evaluation of each model's performance utilizing metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared will be executed to gauge their efficacy in predicting player performance. Furthermore, this investigation will encompass a top player analysis to recognize the top-performing players based on the anticipated overall performance scores. Nationality analysis will entail scrutinizing the player distribution based on nationality and investigating potential correlations between nationality and player performance. Positional analysis will concentrate on examining the player distribution across various positions and assessing the average performance of players in each position. Age analysis will evaluate the influence of age on player performance and identify any discernible trends or patterns associated with player age groups. The primary objective is to predict a football player's overall performance accurately based on their individual attributes, leveraging data-driven insights to enrich the comprehension of player success on the field. By amalgamating data visualization and machine learning methodologies, the aim is to furnish valuable tools for teams, managers, and fans to effectively analyze and forecast player performance. This research contributes to the progression of sports analytics by showcasing the potential of machine learning in predicting football player performance and offering actionable insights for diverse stakeholders in the football industry.

Keywords: football analytics, player performance prediction, data visualization, machine learning algorithms, random forest, decision tree, linear regression, support vector regression, artificial neural networks, model evaluation, top player analysis, nationality analysis, positional analysis

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Authors: Gyu-Dong Kim, Wuk-Jae Yoo, Sang-Youl Lee

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Composite structures offer numerous advantages over conventional structural systems in the form of higher specific stiffness and strength, lower life-cycle costs, and benefits such as easy installation and improved safety. Recently, there has been a considerable increase in the use of composites in engineering applications and as wraps for seismic upgrading and repairs. However, these composites deteriorate with time because of outdated materials, excessive use, repetitive loading, climatic conditions, manufacturing errors, and deficiencies in inspection methods. In particular, damaged fibers in a composite result in significant degradation of structural performance. In order to reduce the failure probability of composites in service, techniques to assess the condition of the composites to prevent continual growth of fiber damage are required. Condition assessment technology and nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques have provided various solutions for the safety of structures by means of detecting damage or defects from static or dynamic responses induced by external loading. A variety of techniques based on detecting the changes in static or dynamic behavior of isotropic structures has been developed in the last two decades. These methods, based on analytical approaches, are limited in their capabilities in dealing with complex systems, primarily because of their limitations in handling different loading and boundary conditions. Recently, investigators have introduced direct search methods based on metaheuristics techniques and artificial intelligence, such as genetic algorithms (GA), simulated annealing (SA) methods, and neural networks (NN), and have promisingly applied these methods to the field of structural identification. Among them, GAs attract our attention because they do not require a considerable amount of data in advance in dealing with complex problems and can make a global solution search possible as opposed to classical gradient-based optimization techniques. In this study, we propose an alternative damage-detection technique that can determine the degraded stiffness distribution of vibrating laminated composites made of Glass Fiber-reinforced Polymer (GFRP). The proposed method uses a modified form of the bivariate Gaussian distribution function to detect degraded stiffness characteristics. In addition, this study presents a method to detect the fiber property variation of laminated composite plates from the micromechanical point of view. The finite element model is used to study free vibrations of laminated composite plates for fiber stiffness degradation. In order to solve the inverse problem using the combined method, this study uses only first mode shapes in a structure for the measured frequency data. In particular, this study focuses on the effect of the interaction among various parameters, such as fiber angles, layup sequences, and damage distributions, on fiber-stiffness damage detection.

Keywords: stiffness detection, fiber damage, genetic algorithm, layup sequences

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Authors: Alena Kulikova, Leonid Parmaksiz, Ekaterina Orel

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Social and emotional skills are considered by modern researchers as predictors of a person's success both in specific areas of activity and in the life of a person as a whole. The popularity of this scientific direction ensures the emergence of a large number of practices aimed at developing and evaluating socio-emotional skills. Assessment of social and emotional development is carried out at the national level, as well as at the level of individual regions and institutions. Despite the fact that many of the already existing social and emotional skills assessment tools are quite convenient and reliable, there are now more and more new technologies and task formats which improve the basic characteristics of the tools. Thus, the goal of the current study is to develop a tool for assessing social and emotional skills such as emotion recognition, emotion regulation, empathy and a culture of self-care. To develop a tool assessing social and emotional skills, Rasch-Gutman scenario-based approach was used. This approach has shown its reliability and merit for measuring various complex constructs: parental involvement; teacher practices that support cultural diversity and equity; willingness to participate in the life of the community after psychiatric rehabilitation; educational motivation and others. To assess emotion recognition, we used a situational judgment task based on OCC (Ortony, Clore, and Collins) emotions theory. The main advantage of these two approaches compare to classical Likert scales is that it reduces social desirability in answers. A field test to check the psychometric properties of the developed instrument was conducted. The instrument was developed for the presidential autonomous non-profit organization “Russia - Land of Opportunity” for nationwide soft skills assessment among higher education students. The sample for the field test consisted of 500 people, students aged from 18 to 25 (mean = 20; standard deviation 1.8), 71% female. 67% of students are only studying and are not currently working and 500 employed adults aged from 26 to 65 (mean = 42.5; SD 9), 57% female. Analysis of the psychometric characteristics of the scales was carried out using the methods of IRT (Item Response Theory). A one-parameter rating scale model RSM (Rating scale model) and Graded Response model (GRM) of the modern testing theory were applied. GRM is a polyatomic extension of the dichotomous two-parameter model of modern testing theory (2PL) based on the cumulative logit function for modeling the probability of a correct answer. The validity of the developed scales was assessed using correlation analysis and MTMM (multitrait-multimethod matrix). The developed instrument showed good psychometric quality and can be used by HR specialists or educational management. The detailed results of a psychometric study of the quality of the instrument, including the functioning of the tasks of each scale, will be presented. Also, the results of the validity study by MTMM analysis will be discussed.

Keywords: social and emotional skills, psychometrics, MTMM, IRT

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Authors: Harry J. Witchel, James Ackah, Carlos P. Santos, Nachiappan Chockalingam, Carina E. I. Westling

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Introduction: Proxemics is the study of how people perceive and use space. It is commonly proposed that when people like or engage with a person/object, they will move slightly closer to it, often quite subtly and subconsciously. Music videos are known to add entertainment value to a pop song. Our hypothesis was that by adding appropriately matched video to a pop song, it would lead to a net approach of the head to the monitor screen compared to simply listening to an audio-only version of the song. Methods: We presented to 27 participants (ages 21.00 ± 2.89, 15 female) seated in front of 47.5 x 27 cm monitor two musical stimuli in a counterbalanced order; all stimuli were based on music videos by the band OK Go: Here It Goes Again (HIGA, boredom ratings (0-100) = 15.00 ± 4.76, mean ± SEM, standard-error-of-the-mean) and Do What You Want (DWYW, boredom ratings = 23.93 ± 5.98), which did not differ in boredom elicited (P = 0.21, rank-sum test). Each participant experienced each song only once, and one song (counterbalanced) as audio-only versus the other song as a music video. The movement was measured by video-tracking using Kinovea 0.8, based on recording from a lateral aspect; before beginning, each participant had a reflective motion tracking marker placed on the outer canthus of the left eye. Analysis of the Kinovea X-Y coordinate output in comma-separated-variables format was performed in Matlab, as were non-parametric statistical tests. Results: We found that the audio-only stimuli (combined for both HIGA and DWYW, mean ± SEM, 35.71 ± 5.36) were significantly more boring than the music video versions (19.46 ± 3.83, P = 0.0066 Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test (WSRT), Cohen's d = 0.658, N = 28). We also found that participants' heads moved around twice as much during the audio-only versions (speed = 0.590 ± 0.095 mm/sec) compared to the video versions (0.301 ± 0.063 mm/sec, P = 0.00077, WSRT). However, the participants' mean head-to-screen distances were not detectably smaller (i.e. head closer to the screen) during the music videos (74.4 ± 1.8 cm) compared to the audio-only stimuli (73.9 ± 1.8 cm, P = 0.37, WSRT). If anything, during the audio-only condition, they were slightly closer. Interestingly, the ranges of the head-to-screen distances were smaller during the music video (8.6 ± 1.4 cm) compared to the audio-only (12.9 ± 1.7 cm, P = 0.0057, WSRT), the standard deviations were also smaller (P = 0.0027, WSRT), and their heads were held 7 mm higher (video 116.1 ± 0.8 vs. audio-only 116.8 ± 0.8 cm above floor, P = 0.049, WSRT). Discussion: As predicted, sitting and listening to experimenter-selected pop music was more boring than when the music was accompanied by a matched, professionally-made video. However, we did not find that the proxemics of the situation led to approaching the screen. Instead, adding video led to efforts to control the head to a more central and upright viewing position and to suppress head fidgeting.

Keywords: boredom, engagement, music videos, posture, proxemics

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Authors: Jingsi Li, Neil S. Ferguson

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Time pressure could have an influence on the productivity, quality of decision making, and the efficiency of problem-solving. This has been mostly stemmed from cognitive research or psychological literature. However, a salient scarce discussion has been held for transport adjacent fields. It is conceivable that in many activity-travel contexts, time pressure is a potentially important factor since an excessive amount of decision time may incur the risk of late arrival to the next activity. The activity-travel rescheduling behavior is commonly explained by costs and benefits of factors such as activity engagements, personal intentions, social requirements, etc. This paper hypothesizes that an additional factor of perceived time pressure could affect travelers’ rescheduling behavior, thus leading to an impact on travel demand management. Time pressure may arise from different ways and is assumed here to be essentially incurred due to travelers planning their schedules without an expectation of unforeseen elements, e.g., transport disruption. In addition to a linear-additive utility-maximization model, the less computationally compensatory heuristic models are considered as an alternative to simulate travelers’ responses. The paper will contribute to travel behavior modeling research by investigating the following questions: how to measure the time pressure properly in an activity-travel day plan context? How do travelers reschedule their plans to cope with the time pressure? How would the importance of the activity affect travelers’ rescheduling behavior? What will the behavioral model be identified to describe the process of making activity-travel rescheduling decisions? How do these identified coping strategies affect the transport network? In this paper, a Mixed Heuristic Model (MHM) is employed to identify the presence of different choice heuristics through a latent class approach. The data about travelers’ activity-travel rescheduling behavior is collected via a web-based interactive survey where a fictitious scenario is created comprising multiple uncertain events on the activity or travel. The experiments are conducted in order to gain a real picture of activity-travel reschedule, considering the factor of time pressure. The identified behavioral models are then integrated into a multi-agent transport simulation model to investigate the effect of the rescheduling strategy on the transport network. The results show that an increased proportion of travelers use simpler, non-compensatory choice strategies instead of compensatory methods to cope with time pressure. Specifically, satisfying - one of the heuristic decision-making strategies - is adopted commonly since travelers tend to abandon the less important activities and keep the important ones. Furthermore, the importance of the activity is found to increase the weight of negative information when making trip-related decisions, especially route choices. When incorporating the identified non-compensatory decision-making heuristic models into the agent-based transport model, the simulation results imply that neglecting the effect of perceived time pressure may result in an inaccurate forecast of choice probability and overestimate the affectability to the policy changes.

Keywords: activity-travel rescheduling, decision making under uncertainty, mixed heuristic model, perceived time pressure, travel demand management

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Authors: Maik Kschischo, Dominik Kahl, Philipp Wendland, Andreas Weber

Abstract:

Understanding and modelling of real-world complex dynamic systems in biology, engineering and other fields is often made difficult by incomplete knowledge about the interactions between systems states and by unknown disturbances to the system. In fact, most real-world dynamic networks are open systems receiving unknown inputs from their environment. To understand a system and to estimate the state dynamics, these inputs need to be reconstructed from output measurements. Reconstructing the input of a dynamic system from its measured outputs is an ill-posed problem if only a limited number of states is directly measurable. A first requirement for solving this problem is the invertibility of the input-output map. In our work, we exploit the fact that invertibility of a dynamic system is a structural property, which depends only on the network topology. Therefore, it is possible to check for invertibility using a structural invertibility algorithm which counts the number of node disjoint paths linking inputs and outputs. The algorithm is efficient enough, even for large networks up to a million nodes. To understand structural features influencing the invertibility of a complex dynamic network, we analyze synthetic and real networks using the structural invertibility algorithm. We find that invertibility largely depends on the degree distribution and that dense random networks are easier to invert than sparse inhomogeneous networks. We show that real networks are often very difficult to invert unless the sensor nodes are carefully chosen. To overcome this problem, we present a sensor node placement algorithm to achieve invertibility with a minimum set of measured states. This greedy algorithm is very fast and also guaranteed to find an optimal sensor node-set if it exists. Our results provide a practical approach to experimental design for open, dynamic systems. Since invertibility is a necessary condition for unknown input observers and data assimilation filters to work, it can be used as a preprocessing step to check, whether these input reconstruction algorithms can be successful. If not, we can suggest additional measurements providing sufficient information for input reconstruction. Invertibility is also important for systems design and model building. Dynamic models are always incomplete, and synthetic systems act in an environment, where they receive inputs or even attack signals from their exterior. Being able to monitor these inputs is an important design requirement, which can be achieved by our algorithms for invertibility analysis and sensor node placement.

Keywords: data-driven dynamic systems, inversion of dynamic systems, observability, experimental design, sensor node placement

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Authors: Bistra Kunovska, Kremena Ivanova, Jana Djounova, Desislava Djunakova, Zdenka Stojanovska

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The carcinogenic effects of radon as a radioactive noble gas have been studied and show a strong correlation between radon exposure and lung cancer occurrence, even in the case of low radon levels. The major part of the natural radiation dose in humans is received by inhaling radon and its progenies, which originates from the decay chain of U-238. Indoor radon poses a substantial threat to human health when build-up occurs in confined spaces such as homes, mines and caves and the risk increases with the duration of radon exposure and is proportional to both the radon concentration and the time of exposure. Tourist caves are a case of special environmental conditions that may be affected by high radon concentration. Tourist caves are a recognized danger in terms of radon exposure to cave workers (guides, employees working in shops built above the cave entrances, etc.), but due to the sensitive nature of the cave environment, high concentrations cannot be easily removed. Forced ventilation of the air in the caves is considered unthinkable due to the possible harmful effects on the microclimate, flora and fauna. The risks to human health posed by exposure to elevated radon levels in caves are not well documented. Various studies around the world often detail very high concentrations of radon in caves and exposure of employees but without a follow-up assessment of the overall impact on human health. This study was developed in the implementation of a national project to assess the potential health effects caused by exposure to elevated levels of radon in buildings with public access under the National Science Fund of Bulgaria, in the framework of grant No КП-06-Н23/1/07.12.2018. The purpose of the work is to assess the radon level in Bulgarian caves and the exposure of the visitors and workers. The number of caves (sampling size) was calculated for simple random selection from total available caves 65 (sampling population) are 13 caves with confidence level 95 % and confidence interval (margin of error) approximately 25 %. A measurement of the radon concentration in air at specific locations in caves was done by using CR-39 type nuclear track-etch detectors that were placed by the participants in the research team. Despite the fact that all of the caves were formed in karst rocks, the radon levels were rather different from each other (97–7575 Bq/m3). An assessment of the influence of the orientation of the caves in the earth's surface (horizontal, inclined, vertical) on the radon concentration was performed. Evaluation of health hazards and radon risk exposure causing by inhaling the radon and its daughter products in each surveyed caves was done. Reducing the time spent in the cave has been recommended in order to decrease the exposure of workers.

Keywords: tourist caves, radon concentration, exposure, Bulgaria

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Authors: Shilpi Bora, Abhirup Chatterjee, Debkumar Chakrabarti

Abstract:

Organizations of all the sectors around the world are increasingly revisiting their workplace strategies with due concern for women working therein. Limited office space and rigid work arrangements contribute to lesser job satisfaction and greater work impoundments for any organization. Flexible workspace strategies are indispensable to accommodate the progressive rise of modular workstations and involvement of women. Today’s generation of employees deserves malleable office environments with employee-friendly job conditions and strategies. The workplace nowadays stands on rapid organizational changes in progressive and flexible work culture. Occupational well-being practices need to keep pace with the rapid changes in office-based work. Working at the office (workspace) with awkward postures or for long periods can cause pain, discomfort, and injury. The world is stirring towards the era of globalization and progress. The 4000 women police personnel constitute less than one per cent of the total police strength of India. Lots of innovative fields are growing fast, and it is important that we should accommodate women in those arenas. The timeworn trends should be set apart to set out for fresh opportunities and possibilities of development and success through more involvement of women in the workplace. The notion of women policing is gaining position throughout the world, and various countries are putting solemn efforts to mainstream women in policing. As the role of women policing in a society is budding, and thus it is also notable that the accessibility of women at general police stations should be considered. Accordingly, the impact of workspace at police station on the employee productivity has been widely deliberated as a crucial contributor to employee satisfaction leading to better functional motivation. Thus the present research aimed to look into the office workstation design of police station with reference to womanhood specific issues to uplift occupational wellbeing of the policewomen. Personal interview and individual responses collected through administering to a subjective assessment questionnaire on thirty women police as well as to have their views on these issues by purposive non-probability sampling of women police personnel of different ranks posted in Guwahati, Assam, India. Scrutiny of the collected data revealed that office design has a substantial impact on the policewomen job satisfaction in the police station. In this study, the workspace was designed in such a way that the set of factors would impact on the individual to ensure increased productivity. Office design such as furniture, noise, temperature, lighting and spatial arrangement were considered. The primary feature which affected the productivity of policewomen was the furniture used in the workspace, which was found to disturb the everyday and overall productivity of policewomen. Therefore, it was recommended to have proper and adequate ergonomics design intervention to improve the office design for better performance. This type of study is today’s need-of-the-hour to empower women and facilitate their inner talent to come up in service of the nation. The office workspace design also finds critical importance at several other occupations also – where office workstation needs further improvement.

Keywords: office workspace design, policewomen, womanhood concerns at workspace, occupational wellbeing

Procedia PDF Downloads 209

Authors: Milada Krejci, Martin Hill, Vaclav Hosek, Dobroslava Jandova, Jiri Kajzar, Pavel Blaha

Abstract:

The paper declares effects of exercise intervention of the research project “Basic research of balance changes in seniors”, granted by the Czech Science Foundation. The objective of the presented study is to define predictors, which influence bio-psycho-social consequences and effects of balance ability in senior 65 years old and above. We focused on the Fall-Efficacy Scale changes evaluation in seniors. Comprehensive hypothesis of the project declares, that motion uncertainty (dyskinesia) can negatively affect the well-being of a senior in bio-psycho-social context. In total, random selection and testing of 100 seniors (30 males, 70 females) from Prague and Central Bohemian region was provided. The sample was divided by stratified random selection into experimental and control groups, who underwent input and output testing. For diagnostics the methods of Medical Anamnesis, Functional anthropological examinations, Tinetti Balance Assessment Tool, SF-36 Health Survey, Anamnestic comparative self-assessment scale were used. Intervention method called "Life in Balance" based on yoga techniques was applied in four-week cycle. Results of multivariate regression were verified by repeated measures ANOVA: subject factor, phase of intervention (between-subject factor), body fluid (within-subject factor) and phase of intervention × body fluid interaction). ANOVA was performed with a repetition involving the factors of subjects, experimental/control group, phase of intervention (independent variable), and x phase interaction followed by Bonferroni multiple comparison assays with a test strength of at least 0.8 on the probability level p < 0.05. In the paper results of the first-year investigation of the three years running project are analysed. Results of balance tests confirmed no significant difference between females and males in pre-test. Significant improvements in balance and walking ability were observed in experimental group in females comparing to males (F = 128.4, p < 0.001). In the females control group, there was no significant change in post- test, while in the female experimental group positive changes in posture and spine flexibility in post-tests were found. It seems that females even in senior age react better to incentives of intervention in balance and spine flexibility. On the base of results analyses, we can declare the significant improvement in social balance markers after intervention in the experimental group (F = 10.5, p < 0.001). In average, seniors are used to take four drugs daily. Number of drugs can contribute to allergy symptoms and balance problems. It can be concluded that static balance and walking ability of seniors according Tinetti Balance scale correlate significantly with psychic and social monitored markers.

Keywords: exercises, balance, seniors 65+, health, mental and social balance

Procedia PDF Downloads 105