Search results for: delta regions
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Search results for: delta regions

221 Unifying RSV Evolutionary Dynamics and Epidemiology Through Phylodynamic Analyses

Authors: Lydia Tan, Philippe Lemey, Lieselot Houspie, Marco Viveen, Darren Martin, Frank Coenjaerts

Abstract:

Introduction: Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) is the leading cause of severe respiratory tract infections in infants under the age of two. Genomic substitutions and related evolutionary dynamics of hRSV are of great influence on virus transmission behavior. The evolutionary patterns formed are due to a precarious interplay between the host immune response and RSV, thereby selecting the most viable and less immunogenic strains. Studying genomic profiles can teach us which genes and consequent proteins play an important role in RSV survival and transmission dynamics. Study design: In this study, genetic diversity and evolutionary rate analysis were conducted on 36 RSV subgroup B whole genome sequences and 37 subgroup A genome sequences. Clinical RSV isolates were obtained from nasopharyngeal aspirates and swabs of children between 2 weeks and 5 years old of age. These strains, collected during epidemic seasons from 2001 to 2011 in the Netherlands and Belgium by either conventional or 454-sequencing. Sequences were analyzed for genetic diversity, recombination events, synonymous/non-synonymous substitution ratios, epistasis, and translational consequences of mutations were mapped to known 3D protein structures. We used Bayesian statistical inference to estimate the rate of RSV genome evolution and the rate of variability across the genome. Results: The A and B profiles were described in detail and compared to each other. Overall, the majority of the whole RSV genome is highly conserved among all strains. The attachment protein G was the most variable protein and its gene had, similar to the non-coding regions in RSV, more elevated (two-fold) substitution rates than other genes. In addition, the G gene has been identified as the major target for diversifying selection. Overall, less gene and protein variability was found within RSV-B compared to RSV-A and most protein variation between the subgroups was found in the F, G, SH and M2-2 proteins. For the F protein mutations and correlated amino acid changes are largely located in the F2 ligand-binding domain. The small hydrophobic phosphoprotein and nucleoprotein are the most conserved proteins. The evolutionary rates were similar in both subgroups (A: 6.47E-04, B: 7.76E-04 substitution/site/yr), but estimates of the time to the most recent common ancestor were much lower for RSV-B (B: 19, A: 46.8 yrs), indicating that there is more turnover in this subgroup. Conclusion: This study provides a detailed description of whole RSV genome mutations, the effect on translation products and the first estimate of the RSV genome evolution tempo. The immunogenic G protein seems to require high substitution rates in order to select less immunogenic strains and other conserved proteins are most likely essential to preserve RSV viability. The resulting G gene variability makes its protein a less interesting target for RSV intervention methods. The more conserved RSV F protein with less antigenic epitope shedding is, therefore, more suitable for developing therapeutic strategies or vaccines.

Keywords: drug target selection, epidemiology, respiratory syncytial virus, RSV

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220 Collaborative Program Student Community Service as a New Approach for Development in Rural Area in Case of Western Java

Authors: Brian Yulianto, Syachrial, Saeful Aziz, Anggita Clara Shinta

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Indonesia, with a population of about two hundred and fifty million people in quantity, indicates the outstanding wealth of human resources. Hundreds of millions of the population scattered in various communities in various regions in Indonesia with the different characteristics of economic, social and unique culture. Broadly speaking, the community in Indonesia is divided into two classes, namely urban communities and rural communities. The rural communities characterized by low potential and management of natural and human resources, limited access of development, and lack of social and economic infrastructure, and scattered and isolated population. West Java is one of the provinces with the largest population in Indonesia. Based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics in 2015 the number of population in West Java reached 46.7096 million souls spread over 18 districts and 9 cities. The big difference in geographical and social conditions of people in West Java from one region to another, especially the south to the north causing the gap is high. It is closely related to the flow of investment to promote the area. Poverty and underdevelopment are the classic problems that occur on a massive scale in the region as the effects of inequity in development. South Cianjur and Tasikmalaya area South became one of the portraits area where the existing potential has not been capable of prospering society. Tri Dharma College not only define the College as a pioneer implementation of education and research to improve the quality of human resources but also demanded to be a pioneer in the development through the concept of public service. Bandung Institute of Technology as one of the institutions of higher education to implement community service system through collaborative community work program "one of the university community" as one approach to developing villages. The program is based Community Service, where students are not only required to be able to take part in community service, but also able to develop a community development strategy that is comprehensive and integrity in cooperation with government agencies and non-government related as a real form of effort alignment potential, position and role from various parties. Areas of western Java in particular have high poverty rates and disparity. On the other hand, there are three fundamental pillars in the development of rural communities, namely economic development, community development, and the integrated infrastructure development. These pillars require the commitment of all components of community, including the students and colleges for upholding success. College’s community program is one of the approaches in the development of rural communities. ITB is committed to implement as one form of student community service as community-college programs that integrate all elements of the community which is called Kuliah Kerja Nyata-Thematic.

Keywords: development in rural area, collaborative, student community service, Kuliah Kerja Nyata-Thematic ITB

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219 Current Applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Chest Radiology

Authors: Angelis P. Barlampas

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Learning Objectives: The purpose of this study is to inform briefly the reader about the applications of AI in chest radiology. Background: Currently, there are 190 FDA-approved radiology AI applications, with 42 (22%) pertaining specifically to thoracic radiology. Imaging findings OR Procedure details Aids of AI in chest radiology1: Detects and segments pulmonary nodules. Subtracts bone to provide an unobstructed view of the underlying lung parenchyma and provides further information on nodule characteristics, such as nodule location, nodule two-dimensional size or three dimensional (3D) volume, change in nodule size over time, attenuation data (i.e., mean, minimum, and/or maximum Hounsfield units [HU]), morphological assessments, or combinations of the above. Reclassifies indeterminate pulmonary nodules into low or high risk with higher accuracy than conventional risk models. Detects pleural effusion . Differentiates tension pneumothorax from nontension pneumothorax. Detects cardiomegaly, calcification, consolidation, mediastinal widening, atelectasis, fibrosis and pneumoperitoneum. Localises automatically vertebrae segments, labels ribs and detects rib fractures. Measures the distance from the tube tip to the carina and localizes both endotracheal tubes and central vascular lines. Detects consolidation and progression of parenchymal diseases such as pulmonary fibrosis or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).Can evaluate lobar volumes. Identifies and labels pulmonary bronchi and vasculature and quantifies air-trapping. Offers emphysema evaluation. Provides functional respiratory imaging, whereby high-resolution CT images are post-processed to quantify airflow by lung region and may be used to quantify key biomarkers such as airway resistance, air-trapping, ventilation mapping, lung and lobar volume, and blood vessel and airway volume. Assesses the lung parenchyma by way of density evaluation. Provides percentages of tissues within defined attenuation (HU) ranges besides furnishing automated lung segmentation and lung volume information. Improves image quality for noisy images with built-in denoising function. Detects emphysema, a common condition seen in patients with history of smoking and hyperdense or opacified regions, thereby aiding in the diagnosis of certain pathologies, such as COVID-19 pneumonia. It aids in cardiac segmentation and calcium detection, aorta segmentation and diameter measurements, and vertebral body segmentation and density measurements. Conclusion: The future is yet to come, but AI already is a helpful tool for the daily practice in radiology. It is assumed, that the continuing progression of the computerized systems and the improvements in software algorithms , will redder AI into the second hand of the radiologist.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, chest imaging, nodule detection, automated diagnoses

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218 Investigating the Neural Heterogeneity of Developmental Dyscalculia

Authors: Fengjuan Wang, Azilawati Jamaludin

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Developmental Dyscalculia (DD) is defined as a particular learning difficulty with continuous challenges in learning requisite math skills that cannot be explained by intellectual disability or educational deprivation. Recent studies have increasingly recognized that DD is a heterogeneous, instead of monolithic, learning disorder with not only cognitive and behavioral deficits but so too neural dysfunction. In recent years, neuroimaging studies employed group comparison to explore the neural underpinnings of DD, which contradicted the heterogenous nature of DD and may obfuscate critical individual differences. This research aimed to investigate the neural heterogeneity of DD using case studies with functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). A total of 54 aged 6-7 years old of children participated in this study, comprising two comprehensive cognitive assessments, an 8-minute resting state, and an 8-minute one-digit addition task. Nine children met the criteria of DD and scored at or below 85 (i.e., the 16th percentile) on the Mathematics or Math Fluency subtest of the Wechsler Individual Achievement Test, Third Edition (WIAT-III) (both subtest scores were 90 and below). The remaining 45 children formed the typically developing (TD) group. Resting-state data and brain activation in the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), superior frontal gyrus (SFG), and intraparietal sulcus (IPS) were collected for comparison between each case and the TD group. Graph theory was used to analyze the brain network under the resting state. This theory represents the brain network as a set of nodes--brain regions—and edges—pairwise interactions across areas to reveal the architectural organizations of the nervous network. Next, a single-case methodology developed by Crawford et al. in 2010 was used to compare each case’s brain network indicators and brain activation against 45 TD children’s average data. Results showed that three out of the nine DD children displayed significant deviation from TD children’s brain indicators. Case 1 had inefficient nodal network properties. Case 2 showed inefficient brain network properties and weaker activation in the IFG and IPS areas. Case 3 displayed inefficient brain network properties with no differences in activation patterns. As a rise above, the present study was able to distill differences in architectural organizations and brain activation of DD vis-à-vis TD children using fNIRS and single-case methodology. Although DD is regarded as a heterogeneous learning difficulty, it is noted that all three cases showed lower nodal efficiency in the brain network, which may be one of the neural sources of DD. Importantly, although the current “brain norm” established for the 45 children is tentative, the results from this study provide insights not only for future work in “developmental brain norm” with reliable brain indicators but so too the viability of single-case methodology, which could be used to detect differential brain indicators of DD children for early detection and interventions.

Keywords: brain activation, brain network, case study, developmental dyscalculia, functional near-infrared spectroscopy, graph theory, neural heterogeneity

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217 Planning for Location and Distribution of Regional Facilities Using Central Place Theory and Location-Allocation Model

Authors: Danjuma Bawa

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This paper aimed at exploring the capabilities of Location-Allocation model in complementing the strides of the existing physical planning models in the location and distribution of facilities for regional consumption. The paper was designed to provide a blueprint to the Nigerian government and other donor agencies especially the Fertilizer Distribution Initiative (FDI) by the federal government for the revitalization of the terrorism ravaged regions. Theoretical underpinnings of central place theory related to spatial distribution, interrelationships, and threshold prerequisites were reviewed. The study showcased how Location-Allocation Model (L-AM) alongside Central Place Theory (CPT) was applied in Geographic Information System (GIS) environment to; map and analyze the spatial distribution of settlements; exploit their physical and economic interrelationships, and to explore their hierarchical and opportunistic influences. The study was purely spatial qualitative research which largely used secondary data such as; spatial location and distribution of settlements, population figures of settlements, network of roads linking them and other landform features. These were sourced from government ministries and open source consortium. GIS was used as a tool for processing and analyzing such spatial features within the dictum of CPT and L-AM to produce a comprehensive spatial digital plan for equitable and judicious location and distribution of fertilizer deports in the study area in an optimal way. Population threshold was used as yardstick for selecting suitable settlements that could stand as service centers to other hinterlands; this was accomplished using the query syntax in ArcMapTM. ArcGISTM’ network analyst was used in conducting location-allocation analysis for apportioning of groups of settlements around such service centers within a given threshold distance. Most of the techniques and models ever used by utility planners have been centered on straight distance to settlements using Euclidean distances. Such models neglect impedance cutoffs and the routing capabilities of networks. CPT and L-AM take into consideration both the influential characteristics of settlements and their routing connectivity. The study was undertaken in two terrorism ravaged Local Government Areas of Adamawa state. Four (4) existing depots in the study area were identified. 20 more depots in 20 villages were proposed using suitability analysis. Out of the 300 settlements mapped in the study area about 280 of such settlements where optimally grouped and allocated to the selected service centers respectfully within 2km impedance cutoff. This study complements the giant strides by the federal government of Nigeria by providing a blueprint for ensuring proper distribution of these public goods in the spirit of bringing succor to these terrorism ravaged populace. This will ardently at the same time help in boosting agricultural activities thereby lowering food shortage and raising per capita income as espoused by the government.

Keywords: central place theory, GIS, location-allocation, network analysis, urban and regional planning, welfare economics

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216 Characterization of Extra Virgin Olive Oil from Olive Cultivars Grown in Pothwar, Pakistan

Authors: Abida Mariam, Anwaar Ahmed, Asif Ahmad, Muhammad Sheeraz Ahmad, Muhammad Akram Khan, Muhammad Mazahir

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The plant olive (Olea europaea L.) is known for its commercial significance due to nutritional and health benefits. Pakistan is ranked 4th among countries who import olive oil whereas, 70% of edible oil is imported to fulfil the needs of the country. There exists great potential for Olea europaea cultivation in Pakistan. The popularity and cultivation of olive fruit has increased in recent past due to its high socio-economic and health significance. There exist almost negligible data on the chemical composition of extra virgin olive oil extracted from cultivars grown in Pothwar, an area with arid climate conducive for growth of olive trees. Keeping in view these factors a study has been conducted to characterize the olive oil extracted from olive cultivars collected from Pothwar regions of Pakistan for their nutritional potential and value addition. Ten olive cultivars (Gemlik, Coratina, Sevillano, Manzanilla, Leccino, Koroneiki, Frantoio, Arbiquina, Earlik and Ottobratica) were collected from Barani Agriculture Research Institute, Chakwal. Extra Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO) was extracted by cold pressing and centrifuging of olive fruits. The highest amount of oil was yielded in Coratina (23.9%) followed by Frantoio (23.7%), Koroneiki (22.8%), Sevillano (22%), Ottobratica (22%), Leccino (20.5%), Arbiquina (19.2%), Manzanilla (17.2%), Earlik (14.4%) and Gemllik (13.1%). The extracted virgin olive oil was studied for various physico- chemical properties and fatty acid profile. The Physical and chemical properties i.e., characteristic odor and taste, light yellow color with no foreign matter, insoluble impurities (≤0.08), fee fatty acid (0.1 to 0.8), acidity (0.5 to 1.6 mg/g acid), peroxide value (1.5 to 5.2 meqO2/kg), Iodine value (82 to 90), saponification value (186 to 192 mg/g) and unsaponifiable matter (4 to 8g/kg), ultraviolet spectrophotometric analysis (k232 and k270), showed values in the acceptable range, established by PSQCA and IOOC set for extra virgin olive oil. Olive oil was analyzed by Near Infra-Red spectrophotometry (NIR) for fatty acids sin olive oils which were found as: palmitic, palmitoleic, stearic, oleic, linoleic and alpha-linolenic. Major fatty acid was Oleic acid in the highest percentage ranging from (55 to 66.1%), followed by linoleic (10.4 to 20.4%), palmitic (13.8 to 19.5%), stearic (3.9 to 4.4%), palmitoleic (0.3 to 1.7%) and alpha-linolenic (0.9 to 1.7%). The results were significant with differences in parameters analyzed for all ten cultivars which confirm that genetic factors are important contributors in the physico-chemical characteristics of oil. The olive oil showed superior physical and chemical properties and recommended as one of the healthiest forms of edible oil. This study will help consumers to be more aware of and make better choices of healthy oils available locally thus contributing towards their better health.

Keywords: characterization, extra virgin olive oil, oil yield, fatty acids

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215 Biotechnological Interventions for Crop Improvement in Nutricereal Pearl Millet

Authors: Supriya Ambawat, Subaran Singh, C. Tara Satyavathi, B. S. Rajpurohit, Ummed Singh, Balraj Singh

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Pearl millet [Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R. Br.] is an important staple food of the arid and semiarid tropical regions of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. It is rightly termed as nutricereal as it has high nutrition value and a good source of carbohydrate, protein, fat, ash, dietary fiber, potassium, magnesium, iron, zinc, etc. Pearl millet has low prolamine fraction and is gluten free which is useful for people having a gluten allergy. It has several health benefits like reduction in blood pressure, thyroid, diabe¬tes, cardiovascular and celiac diseases but its direct consumption as food has significantly declined due to several reasons. Keeping this in view, it is important to reorient the ef¬forts to generate demand through value-addition and quality improvement and create awareness on the nutritional merits of pearl millet. In India, through Indian Council of Agricultural Research-All India Coordinated Research Project on Pearl millet, multilocational coordinated trials for developed hybrids were conducted at various centers. The gene banks of pearl millet contain varieties with high levels of iron and zinc which were used to produce new pearl millet varieties with elevated iron levels bred with the high‐yielding varieties. Thus, using breeding approaches and biochemical analysis, a total of 167 hybrids and 61 varieties were identified and released for cultivation in different agro-ecological zones of the country which also includes some biofortified hybrids rich in Fe and Zn. Further, using several biotechnological interventions such as molecular markers, next-generation sequencing (NGS), association mapping, nested association mapping (NAM), MAGIC populations, genome editing, genotyping by sequencing (GBS), genome wide association studies (GWAS) advancement in millet improvement has become possible by identifying and tagging of genes underlying a trait in the genome. Using DArT markers very high density linkage maps were constructed for pearl millet. Improved HHB67 has been released using marker assisted selection (MAS) strategies, and genomic tools were used to identify Fe-Zn Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL). The draft genome sequence of millet has also opened various ways to explore pearl millet. Further, genomic positions of significantly associated simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers with iron and zinc content in the consensus map is being identified and research is in progress towards mapping QTLs for flour rancidity. The sequence information is being used to explore genes and enzymatic pathways responsible for rancidity of flour. Thus, development and application of several biotechnological approaches along with biofortification can accelerate the genetic gain targets for pearl millet improvement and help improve its quality.

Keywords: Biotechnological approaches, genomic tools, malnutrition, MAS, nutricereal, pearl millet, sequencing.

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214 Influencing Factors on Stability of Shale with Silt Layers at Slopes

Authors: A. K. M. Badrul Alam, Yoshiaki Fujii, Nahid Hasan Dipu, Shakil Ahmed Razo

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Shale rockmasses often include silt layers, impacting slope stability in construction and mining. Analyzing their interaction is crucial for long-term stability. A study used an elastoplastic model, incorporating the stress transfer method and Coulomb's criterion, to assess a shale rock mass with silt layers. It computed stress distribution, assessed failure potential, and identified vulnerable regions where nodal forces were calculated for a comprehensive analysis. A shale rock mass ranging from 14.75 to 16.75 meters thick, with silt layers varying from 0.36 to 0.5 meters, was considered in the model. It examined four silt layer conditions: horizontal (SiHL), vertical (SiVL), inclined against slope (SiIincAGS), and along slope (SilincALO). Mechanical parameters like uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), tensile strength (TS), Young’s modulus (E), Poisson’s ratio, and density were adjusted for varied scenarios: UCS (0.5 to 5 MPa), TS (0.1 to 1 MPa), and E (6 to 60 MPa). In elastic analysis of shale rock masses, stress distributions vary based on layer properties. When shale and silt layers have the same elasticity modulus (E), stress concentrates at corners. If the silt layer has a lower E than shale, marginal changes in maximum stress (σmax) occur for SilHL. A decrease in σmax is evident at SilVL. Slight variations in σmax are observed for SilincAGS and SilincALO. In the elastoplastic analysis, the overall decrease of 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, and 90% was considered. For SilHL:(i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: strength decrease led to shear (S), tension then shear (T then S) failure; noticeable failure at 60% decrease, significant at 80%, collapse at 90%. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: No significant differences. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: No significant differences. For SilVL: (i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: Similar effects as SilHL. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: Slip occurred. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: Bitension failure also observed with larger slip. For SilincAGS: (i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: Effects similar to SilHL. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: Slip occurred. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: Tension failure also observed with larger slip. For SilincALO: (i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: Similar to SilHL with tension failure. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: No significant differences; failure diverged. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: Bitension failure also observed with larger slip; failure diverged. Toppling failure was observed for lower E cases of SilVL and SilincAGS. The presence of silt interlayers in shale greatly impacts slope stability. Designing slopes requires careful consideration of both the silt and shale's mechanical properties. The temporal degradation of strength in these layers is a major concern. Thus, slope design must comprehensively analyze the immediate and long-term mechanical behavior of interlayer silt and shale to effectively mitigate instability.

Keywords: shale rock masses, silt layers, slope stability, elasto-plastic model, temporal degradation

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213 Relationship between Gully Development and Characteristics of Drainage Area in Semi-Arid Region, NW Iran

Authors: Ali Reza Vaezi, Ouldouz Bakhshi Rad

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Gully erosion is a widespread and often dramatic form of soil erosion caused by water during and immediately after heavy rainfall. It occurs when flowing surface water is channelled across unprotected land and washes away the soil along the drainage lines. The formation of gully is influenced by various factors, including climate, drainage surface area, slope gradient, vegetation cover, land use, and soil properties. It is a very important problem in semi-arid regions, where soils have lower organic matter and are weakly aggregated. Intensive agriculture and tillage along the slope can accelerate soil erosion by water in the region. There is little information on the development of gully erosion in agricultural rainfed areas. Therefore, this study was carried out to investigate the relationship between gully erosion and morphometric characteristics of the drainage area and the effects of soil properties and soil management factors (land use and tillage method) on gully development. A field study was done in a 900 km2 agricultural area in Hshtroud township located in the south of East Azarbijan province, NW Iran. Toward this, two hundred twenty-two gullies created in rainfed lands were found in the area. Some properties of gullies, consisting of length, width, depth, height difference, cross section area, and volume, were determined. Drainage areas for each or some gullies were determined, and their boundaries were drawn. Additionally, the surface area of each drainage, land use, tillage direction, and soil properties that may affect gully formation were determined. The soil erodibility factor (K) defined in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was estimated based on five soil properties (silt and very fine sand, coarse sand, organic matter, soil structure code, and soil permeability). Gully development in each drainage area was quantified using its volume and soil loss. The dependency of gully development on drainage area characteristics (surface area, land use, tillage direction, and soil properties) was determined using correlation matrix analysis. Based on the results, gully length was the most important morphometric characteristic indicating the development of gully erosion in the lands. Gully development in the area was related to slope gradient (r= -0.26), surface area (r= 0.71), the area of rainfed lands (r= 0.23), and the area of rainfed tilled along the slope (r= 0.24). Nevertheless, its correlation with the area of pasture and soil erodibility factor (K) was not significant. Among the characteristics of drainage area, surface area is the major factor controlling gully volume in the agricultural land. No significant correlation was found between gully erosion and soil erodibility factor (K) estimated by the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). It seems the estimated soil erodibility can’t describe the susceptibility of the study soils to the gully erosion process. In these soils, aggregate stability and soil permeability are the two soil physical properties that affect the actual soil erodibility and in consequence, these soil properties can control gully erosion in the rainfed lands.

Keywords: agricultural area, gully properties, soil structure, USLE

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212 Leveraging Multimodal Neuroimaging Techniques to in vivo Address Compensatory and Disintegration Patterns in Neurodegenerative Disorders: Evidence from Cortico-Cerebellar Connections in Multiple Sclerosis

Authors: Efstratios Karavasilis, Foteini Christidi, Georgios Velonakis, Agapi Plousi, Kalliopi Platoni, Nikolaos Kelekis, Ioannis Evdokimidis, Efstathios Efstathopoulos

Abstract:

Introduction: Advanced structural and functional neuroimaging techniques contribute to the study of anatomical and functional brain connectivity and its role in the pathophysiology and symptoms’ heterogeneity in several neurodegenerative disorders, including multiple sclerosis (MS). Aim: In the present study, we applied multiparametric neuroimaging techniques to investigate the structural and functional cortico-cerebellar changes in MS patients. Material: We included 51 MS patients (28 with clinically isolated syndrome [CIS], 31 with relapsing-remitting MS [RRMS]) and 51 age- and gender-matched healthy controls (HC) who underwent MRI in a 3.0T MRI scanner. Methodology: The acquisition protocol included high-resolution 3D T1 weighted, diffusion-weighted imaging and echo planar imaging sequences for the analysis of volumetric, tractography and functional resting state data, respectively. We performed between-group comparisons (CIS, RRMS, HC) using CAT12 and CONN16 MATLAB toolboxes for the analysis of volumetric (cerebellar gray matter density) and functional (cortico-cerebellar resting-state functional connectivity) data, respectively. Brainance suite was used for the analysis of tractography data (cortico-cerebellar white matter integrity; fractional anisotropy [FA]; axial and radial diffusivity [AD; RD]) to reconstruct the cerebellum tracts. Results: Patients with CIS did not show significant gray matter (GM) density differences compared with HC. However, they showed decreased FA and increased diffusivity measures in cortico-cerebellar tracts, and increased cortico-cerebellar functional connectivity. Patients with RRMS showed decreased GM density in cerebellar regions, decreased FA and increased diffusivity measures in cortico-cerebellar WM tracts, as well as a pattern of increased and mostly decreased functional cortico-cerebellar connectivity compared to HC. The comparison between CIS and RRMS patients revealed significant GM density difference, reduced FA and increased diffusivity measures in WM cortico-cerebellar tracts and increased/decreased functional connectivity. The identification of decreased WM integrity and increased functional cortico-cerebellar connectivity without GM changes in CIS and the pattern of decreased GM density decreased WM integrity and mostly decreased functional connectivity in RRMS patients emphasizes the role of compensatory mechanisms in early disease stages and the disintegration of structural and functional networks with disease progression. Conclusions: In conclusion, our study highlights the added value of multimodal neuroimaging techniques for the in vivo investigation of cortico-cerebellar brain changes in neurodegenerative disorders. An extension and future opportunity to leverage multimodal neuroimaging data inevitably remain the integration of such data in the recently-applied mathematical approaches of machine learning algorithms to more accurately classify and predict patients’ disease course.

Keywords: advanced neuroimaging techniques, cerebellum, MRI, multiple sclerosis

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211 Study on Changes of Land Use impacting the Process of Urbanization, by Using Landsat Data in African Regions: A Case Study in Kigali, Rwanda

Authors: Delphine Mukaneza, Lin Qiao, Wang Pengxin, Li Yan, Chen Yingyi

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Human activities on land use make the land-cover gradually change or transit. In this study, we examined the use of Landsat TM data to detect the land use change of Kigali between 1987 and 2009 using remote sensing techniques and analysis of data using ENVI and ArcGIS, a GIS software. Six different categories of land use were distinguished: bare soil, built up land, wetland, water, vegetation, and others. With remote sensing techniques, we analyzed land use data in 1987, 1999 and 2009, changed areas were found and a dynamic situation of land use in Kigali city was found during the 22 years studied. According to relevant Landsat data, the research focused on land use change in accordance with the role of remote sensing in the process of urbanization. The result of the work has shown the rapid increase of built up land between 1987 and 1999 and a big decrease of vegetation caused by the rebuild of the city after the 1994 genocide, while in the period of 1999 to 2009 there was a reduction in built up land and vegetation, after the authority of Kigali city established, a Master Plan where all constructions which were not in the range of the master Plan were destroyed. Rwanda's capital, Kigali City, through the expansion of the urban area, it is increasing the internal employment rate and attracts business investors and the service sector to improve their economy, which will increase the population growth and provide a better life. The overall planning of the city of Kigali considers the environment, land use, infrastructure, cultural and socio-economic factors, the economic development and population forecast, urban development, and constraints specification. To achieve the above purpose, the Government has set for the overall planning of city Kigali, different stages of the detailed description of the design, strategy and action plan that would guide Kigali planners and members of the public in the future to have more detailed regional plans and practical measures. Thus, land use change is significantly the performance of Kigali active human area, which plays an important role for the country to take certain decisions. Another area to take into account is the natural situation of Kigali city. Agriculture in the region does not occupy a dominant position, and with the population growth and socio-economic development, the construction area will gradually rise and speed up the process of urbanization. Thus, as a developing country, Rwanda's population continues to grow and there is low rate of utilization of land, where urbanization remains low. As mentioned earlier, the 1994 genocide massacres, population growth and urbanization processes, have been the factors driving the dramatic changes in land use. The focus on further research would be on analysis of Rwanda’s natural resources, social and economic factors that could be, the driving force of land use change.

Keywords: land use change, urbanization, Kigali City, Landsat

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210 Linking Enhanced Resting-State Brain Connectivity with the Benefit of Desirable Difficulty to Motor Learning: A Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Study

Authors: Chien-Ho Lin, Ho-Ching Yang, Barbara Knowlton, Shin-Leh Huang, Ming-Chang Chiang

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Practicing motor tasks arranged in an interleaved order (interleaved practice, or IP) generally leads to better learning than practicing tasks in a repetitive order (repetitive practice, or RP), an example of how desirable difficulty during practice benefits learning. Greater difficulty during practice, e.g. IP, is associated with greater brain activity measured by higher blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) signal in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in the sensorimotor areas of the brain. In this study resting-state fMRI was applied to investigate whether increase in resting-state brain connectivity immediately after practice predicts the benefit of desirable difficulty to motor learning. 26 healthy adults (11M/15F, age = 23.3±1.3 years) practiced two sets of three sequences arranged in a repetitive or an interleaved order over 2 days, followed by a retention test on Day 5 to evaluate learning. On each practice day, fMRI data were acquired in a resting state after practice. The resting-state fMRI data was decomposed using a group-level spatial independent component analysis (ICA), yielding 9 independent components (IC) matched to the precuneus network, primary visual networks (two ICs, denoted by I and II respectively), sensorimotor networks (two ICs, denoted by I and II respectively), the right and the left frontoparietal networks, occipito-temporal network, and the frontal network. A weighted resting-state functional connectivity (wRSFC) was then defined to incorporate information from within- and between-network brain connectivity. The within-network functional connectivity between a voxel and an IC was gauged by a z-score derived from the Fisher transformation of the IC map. The between-network connectivity was derived from the cross-correlation of time courses across all possible pairs of ICs, leading to a symmetric nc x nc matrix of cross-correlation coefficients, denoted by C = (pᵢⱼ). Here pᵢⱼ is the extremum of cross-correlation between ICs i and j; nc = 9 is the number of ICs. This component-wise cross-correlation matrix C was then projected to the voxel space, with the weights for each voxel set to the z-score that represents the above within-network functional connectivity. The wRSFC map incorporates the global characteristics of brain networks measured by the between-network connectivity, and the spatial information contained in the IC maps measured by the within-network connectivity. Pearson correlation analysis revealed that greater IP-minus-RP difference in wRSFC was positively correlated with the RP-minus-IP difference in the response time on Day 5, particularly in brain regions crucial for motor learning, such as the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), and the right premotor and supplementary motor cortices. This indicates that enhanced resting brain connectivity during the early phase of memory consolidation is associated with enhanced learning following interleaved practice, and as such wRSFC could be applied as a biomarker that measures the beneficial effects of desirable difficulty on motor sequence learning.

Keywords: desirable difficulty, functional magnetic resonance imaging, independent component analysis, resting-state networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 203
209 Investigating the Strategies for Managing On-plot Sanitation Systems’ Faecal Waste in Developing Regions: The Case of Ogun State, Nigeria

Authors: Olasunkanmi Olapeju

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A large chunk of global population are not yet connected to water borne faecal management systems that rely on flush mechanisms and sewers networks that are linked with a central treatment plant. Only about 10% of sub-Saharan African countries are connected to central sewage systems. In Nigeria, majority of the population do not only depend on on-plot sanitation systems, a huge chunk do not also have access to safe and improved toilets. Apart from the organizational challenges and technical capacity, the other major factors that account for why faecal waste management is yet unimproved in developing countries are faulty planning frameworks that fail to maintain balance between urbanization dynamics and infrastructures, and misconceptions about what modern sanitation is all about. In most cases, the quest to implement developmental patterns that integrate modern sewers based sanitation systems have huge financial and political costs. Faecal waste management in poor countries largely lacks the needed political attention and budgetary prioritization. Yet, the on-plot sanitation systems being mainly relied upon the need to be managed in a manner that is sustainable and healthy, pending when development would embrace a more sustainable off-site central sewage system. This study is aimed at investigating existing strategies for managing on-plot sanitation systems’ faecal waste in Ogun state, Nigeria, with the aim of recommending sustainable sanitation management systems. The study adopted the convergent parallel variant of the mixed-mode technique, which involves the adoption of both quantitative and qualitative method of data collection. Adopting a four-level multi-stage approach, which is inclusive of all political divisions in the study area, a total of 330 questionnaires were respectively administered in the study area. Moreover, the qualitative data adopted the purposive approach in scoping down to 33 key informants. SPSS software (Version 22.0) was employed for descriptively analysis. The study shows that about 52% of households adopt the non-recovery management (NRM) means of burying their latrines with sand sludge shrinkage with chemicals such as carbides. The dominance of the non-recovery management means seriously constrains the quest for faecal resource recovery. Essentially, the management techniques adopted by households depend largely on the technology of their sanitary containments, emptying means available, the ability of households to pay for the cost of emptying, and the social acceptability of the reusability of faecal waste, which determines faecal resource recoverability. The study suggests that there is a need for municipal authorities in the study area to urgently intervene in the sanitation sector and consider it a key element of the planning process. There is a need for a comprehensive plan that would ensure a seamless transition to the adoption of a modern sanitation management system.

Keywords: faecal, management, planning, waste, sanitation, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 103
208 Expanding Behavioral Crisis Care: Expansion of Psychiatric and Addiction-Care Services through a 23/7 Behavioral Crisis Center

Authors: Garima Singh

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Objectives: Behavioral Crisis Center (BCC) is a community solution to a community problem. There has been an exponential increase in the incidence and prevalence of mental health crises around the world. The effects of the crisis negatively impact our patients and their families and strain the law enforcement and emergency room. The goal of the multi-disciplinary care model is to break the crisis cycle and provide 24-7 rapid access to an acre and crisis stabilization. We initiated our first BCC care center in 2020 in the midst of the COVID pandemic and have seen a remarkable improvement in patient ‘care and positive financial outcome. Background: Mental illnesses are common in the United States. Nearly one in five U.S. adults live with a mental illness (52.9 million in 2020). This number represented 21.0% of all U.S. adults. To address some of these challenges and help our community, In May 2020, we opened our first Behavioral crisis center (BCC). Since then, we have served more than 2500 patients and is the first southwest Missouri’s first 24/7 facility for crisis–level behavioral health and substance use needs. It has been proven to be a more effective place than emergency departments, jails, or local law enforcement. Methods: BCC was started in 2020 to serve the unmet need of the community and provide access to behavioral health and substance use services identified in the community. Funding was possible with significant investment from the county and Missouri Foundation for Health, with contributions from medical partners. It is a multi-disciplinary care center consisting of Physicians, nurse practitioners, nurses, behavioral technicians, peer support specialists, clinical intake specialists, and clinical coordinators and hospitality specialists. The center provides services including psychiatry care, outpatient therapy, community support services, primary care, peer support and engagement. It is connected to a residential treatment facility for substance use treatment for continuity of care and bridging the gap, which has resulted in the completion of treatment and better outcomes. Results: BCC has proven to be a great resource to the community and the Missouri Health Coalition is providing funding to replicate the model in other regions and work on a similar model for children and adolescents. Overall, 29% of the patients seen at BCC are stabilized and discharged with outpatient care. 50% needed acute stabilization in a hospital setting and 21% required long-term admission, mostly for substance use treatment. The local emergency room had a 42% reduction in behavioral health encounters compared to the previous 3 years. Also, by a quick transfer to BCC, the average stay in ER was reduced by 10 hours and time to follow up behavioral health assessment decreased by an average of 4 hours. Uninsured patients are also provided Medicaid application assistance which has benefited 55% of individuals receiving care at BCC. Conclusions: BCC is impacting community health and improving access to quality care and substance use treatment. It is a great investment for our patients and families.

Keywords: BCC, behvaioral health, community health care, addiction treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
207 Country Experience on Regulation of Traditional Medicine in Eritrea

Authors: Liya Abraham

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Eritrea is located along the Red Sea, north of the Horn of Africa, between Djibouti and Sudan and has a population of about 3.2 million as of 2010. It has six administrative regions; Anseba, Debub, Debubawi K’eyih Bahri, Gash-Barka, Ma'akel, and Semenawi K’eyih Bahri. Eritrea has got its independence in 1991 after 30 years war of liberation. The country is blessed with various medicinal flora and fauna, and marine and terrestrial biodiversity. Traditional Medicine (TM) has been an integral part of the Eritrean culture for centuries. So far, more than 19 TM modalities have been recognized, and are broadly categorized as; herbal, procedure-based and spiritual. Despite the availability of modern medicine to the majority of the population, TM is still widely practiced. The rationale behind widespread use is accessibility, affordability and cultural acceptability. Hence, TM is of great contribution to the Eritrean health care system. As a matter of fact, harnessing the potential contribution of effective and safe TM in order to attain Universal Health Coverage (UHC) has been emphasized in the WHO TM strategy 2014-2023. The Eritrean TM, however, was operating without regulation and reliable scientific justification behind its safety and efficacy. Thus, the Ministry of Health (MoH), in recognition of the role of TM in primary healthcare and safeguard public health, established a regulatory body for TM so-called as Traditional Medicine Unit (TMU) in 2012. The mission of the unit is to ensure rational TM use through an integrated health service delivery system and contribute to the country’s economic and social development. The unit has established its national TM policy in 2017. The activities of the unit are guided by the National TM Advisory Committee (TMAC), responsible for the provision of technical assistance and advisory role. Moreover, the Legal Framework and Code of Ethics and Practice which provide a legal basis for the regulation of TM have also been drafted. In recognition of the importance of TM research and development, the unit launched a nationwide TM survey in 2017 and had surveyed two zones (Gash-Barka and Debub). The findings of the survey were subjected to a research dissemination workshop and publication in international journals. Furthermore, TM-related adverse events reporting tool (Green Form) aiming to guide regulatory interventions and researches have been established by the unit, and ever since reports are flowing. The unit has also been offering training to THPs, pharmacy students and health care professionals regarding TM and its regulatory activities. In addition, as part of the establishment of the national medicinal plants' database and herbal monograph, more than 329 and 30 medicinal plants, have been compiled respectively. In conclusion, TM is still widely accepted and practiced in Eritrea. The TMU ever since its establishment is endeavoring to ensure the safety and efficacy of the TM, and its integration in the mainstream health service delivery system.

Keywords: efficacy, regulation, safety, traditional medicine, traditional medicine unit, universal health coverage

Procedia PDF Downloads 184
206 Analysis of the Development of Mining Companies Social Corporate Responsibility Based on the Rating Score

Authors: Tatiana Ponomarenko, Oksana Marinina, Marina Nevskaya

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Modern corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a sphere of multilevel responsibility of a company toward society represented by various stakeholders. The relevance of CSR management grows due to the active development of socially responsible investing (principles for responsible investment) taking into account factors of environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG), growing attention of the investment community in general to the long-term stability of companies and the quality of control of nonfinancial risks. The modern approach to CSR strategic management is aimed at the creation of trustful relationships with stakeholders, on the basis of which a contribution to the sustainable development of companies, regions, and national economics is insured. However, the practical concepts of social responsibility in mining companies are different, which leads to various degrees of application of CSR. A number of companies implement CSR using a traditional (limited) understanding of responsibility toward employees and counteragents, the others understand CSR much wider and try to use leverages of efficient cooperation. As in large mining companies the scope of CSR measures is diverse and characterized by different indices, the study was aimed at evaluating CSR efficiency on the basis of a proprietary methodology and determining the level of development of CSR management in terms of anti-crisis, reactive and proactive development. The methodology of the research includes analysis of integrated global reporting initiative (GRI) reports of large mining companies; choice of most representative sectoral agents by a criterion of the regularity of issuance and publication of reports; calculation of indices of evaluation of CSR level of the selected companies in dynamics. The methodology of evaluation of CSR level is based on a rating score of changes in standard indices of GRI reports by economic, environmental, and social directions. Result. By the results of the analysis, companies of fuel and energy and metallurgic complexes, in overwhelming majority, reflecting three indices out of a wide range of possible indicators of SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals), were selected for the study. The evaluation of the scopes of CSR of the companies Gazprom, LUKOIL, Metalloinvest, Nornikel, Rosneft, Severstal, SIBUR, SUEK corresponds to the reactive type of development according to a scale of CSR strategic management, which is the average value out of the possible values. The chief drawback is that companies, in the process of analyzing global goals, often choose the goals which relate to their own activities, paying insufficient attention to the interests of the stakeholders inside the country. This fact evidences the necessity of searching for more effective mechanisms of CSR control. Acknowledgment: This article is prepared within grant support of the RFBR, project 19-510-44013 'Development of the concept of mineral resources value formation in the context of sustainable development in resource-oriented economies'.

Keywords: sustainable development, corporate social responsibility, development strategies, efficiency assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
205 An Assessment of Health Hazards in Urban Communities: A Study of Spatial-Temporal Variations of Dengue Epidemic in Colombo, Sri Lanka

Authors: U. Thisara G. Perera, C. M. Kanchana N. K. Chandrasekara

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Dengue is an epidemic which is spread by Aedes Egyptai and Aedes Albopictus mosquitoes. The cases of dengue show a dramatic growth rate of the epidemic in urban and semi urban areas spatially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Incidence of dengue has become a prominent reason for hospitalization and deaths in Asian countries, including Sri Lanka. During the last decade the dengue epidemic began to spread from urban to semi-urban and then to rural settings of the country. The highest number of dengue infected patients was recorded in Sri Lanka in the year 2016 and the highest number of patients was identified in Colombo district. Together with the commercial, industrial, and other supporting services, the district suffers from rapid urbanization and high population density. Thus, drainage and waste disposal patterns of the people in this area exert an additional pressure to the environment. The district is situated in the wet zone and thus low lying lands constitute the largest portion of the district. This situation additionally facilitates mosquito breeding sites. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to assess the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of dengue epidemic in Kolonnawa MOH area (Medical Officer of Health) in the district of Colombo. The study was carried out using 615 recorded dengue cases in Kollonnawa MOH area during the south east monsoon season from May to September 2016. The Moran’s I and Kernel density estimation were used as analytical methods. The analysis of data was accomplished through the integrated use of ArcGIS 10.1 software packages along with Microsoft Excel analytical tool. Field observation was also carried out for verification purposes during the study period. Results of the Moran’s I index indicates that the spatial distribution of dengue cases showed a cluster distribution pattern across the area. Kernel density estimation emphasis that dengue cases are high where the population has gathered, especially in areas comprising housing schemes. Results of the Kernel Density estimation further discloses that hot spots of dengue epidemic are located in the western half of the Kolonnawa MOH area, which is close to the Colombo municipal boundary and there is a significant relationship with high population density and unplanned urban land use practices. Results of the field observation confirm that the drainage systems in these areas function poorly and careless waste disposal methods of the people further encourage mosquito breeding sites. This situation has evolved harmfully from a public health issue to a social problem, which ultimately impacts on the economy and social lives of the country.

Keywords: Dengue epidemic, health hazards, Kernel density, Moran’s I, Sri Lanka

Procedia PDF Downloads 300
204 Influence of Surface Fault Rupture on Dynamic Behavior of Cantilever Retaining Wall: A Numerical Study

Authors: Partha Sarathi Nayek, Abhiparna Dasgupta, Maheshreddy Gade

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Earth retaining structure plays a vital role in stabilizing unstable road cuts and slopes in the mountainous region. The retaining structures located in seismically active regions like the Himalayas may experience moderate to severe earthquakes. An earthquake produces two kinds of ground motion: permanent quasi-static displacement (fault rapture) on the fault rupture plane and transient vibration, traveling a long distance. There has been extensive research work to understand the dynamic behavior of retaining structures subjected to transient ground motions. However, understanding the effect caused by fault rapture phenomena on retaining structures is limited. The presence of shallow crustal active faults and natural slopes in the Himalayan region further highlights the need to study the response of retaining structures subjected to fault rupture phenomena. In this paper, an attempt has been made to understand the dynamic response of the cantilever retaining wall subjected to surface fault rupture. For this purpose, a 2D finite element model consists of a retaining wall, backfill and foundation have been developed using Abaqus 6.14 software. The backfill and foundation material are modeled as per the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, and the wall is modeled as linear elastic. In this present study, the interaction between backfill and wall is modeled as ‘surface-surface contact.’ The entire simulation process is divided into three steps, i.e., the initial step, gravity load step, fault rupture step. The interaction property between wall and soil and fixed boundary condition to all the boundary elements are applied in the initial step. In the next step, gravity load is applied, and the boundary elements are allowed to move in the vertical direction to incorporate the settlement of soil due to the gravity load. In the final step, surface fault rupture has been applied to the wall-backfill system. For this purpose, the foundation is divided into two blocks, namely, the hanging wall block and the footwall block. A finite fault rupture displacement is applied to the hanging wall part while the footwall bottom boundary is kept as fixed. Initially, a numerical analysis is performed considering the reverse fault mechanism with a dip angle of 45°. The simulated result is presented in terms of contour maps of permanent displacements of the wall-backfill system. These maps highlighted that surface fault rupture can induce permanent displacement in both horizontal and vertical directions, which can significantly influence the dynamic behavior of the wall-backfill system. Further, the influence of fault mechanism, dip angle, and surface fault rupture position is also investigated in this work.

Keywords: surface fault rupture, retaining wall, dynamic response, finite element analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 105
203 Natural Fibers Design Attributes

Authors: Brayan S. Pabón, R. Ricardo Moreno, Edith Gonzalez

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Inside the wide Colombian natural fiber set is the banana stem leaf, known as Calceta de Plátano, which is a material present in several regions of the country and is a fiber extracted from the pseudo stem of the banana plant (Musa paradisiaca) as a regular maintenance process. Colombia had a production of 2.8 million tons in 2007 and 2008 corresponding to 8.2% of the international production, number that is growing. This material was selected to be studied because it is not being used by farmers due to it being perceived as a waste from the banana harvest and a propagation pest agent inside the planting. In addition, the Calceta does not have industrial applications in Colombia since there is not enough concrete knowledge that informs us about the properties of the material and the possible applications it could have. Based on this situation the industrial design is used as a link between the properties of the material and the need to transform it into industrial products for the market. Therefore, the project identifies potential design attributes that the banana stem leaf can have for product development. The methodology was divided into 2 main chapters: Methodology for the material recognition: -Data Collection, inquiring the craftsmen experience and bibliography. -Knowledge in practice, with controlled experiments and validation tests. -Creation of design attributes and material profile according to the knowledge developed. Moreover, the Design methodology: -Application fields selection, exploring the use of the attributes and the relation with product functions. -Evaluating the possible fields and selection of the optimum application. -Design Process with sketching, ideation, and product development. Different protocols were elaborated to qualitatively determine some material properties of the Calceta, and if they could be designated as design attributes. Once defined, performed and analyzed the validation protocols, 25 design attributes were identified and classified into 4 attribute categories (Environmental, Functional, Aesthetics and Technical) forming the material profile. Then, 15 application fields were defined based on the relation between functions of product and the use of the Calceta attributes. Those fields were evaluated to measure how much are being used the functional attributes. After fields evaluation, a final field was defined , influenced by traditional use of the fiber for packing food. As final result, two products were designed for this application field. The first one is the Multiple Container, which works to contain small or large-thin pieces of food, like potatoes chips or small sausages; it allows the consumption of food with sauces or dressings. The second is the Chorizo container, specifically designed for this food due to the long shape and the consumption mode. Natural fiber research allows the generation of a solider and a more complete knowledge about natural fibers. In addition, the research is a way to strengthen the identity through the investigation of the proper and autochthonous, allowing the use of national resources in a sustainable and creative way. Using divergent thinking and the design as a tool, this investigation can achieve advances in the natural fiber handling.

Keywords: banana stem leaf, Calceta de Plátano, design attributes, natural fibers, product design

Procedia PDF Downloads 259
202 The Impact of Shifting Trading Pattern from Long-Haul to Short-Sea to the Car Carriers’ Freight Revenues

Authors: Tianyu Wang, Nikita Karandikar

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The uncertainty around cost, safety, and feasibility of the decarbonized shipping fuels has made it increasingly complex for the shipping companies to set pricing strategies and forecast their freight revenues going forward. The increase in the green fuel surcharges will ultimately influence the automobile’s consumer prices. The auto shipping demand (ton-miles) has been gradually shifting from long-haul to short-sea trade over the past years following the relocation of the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing to regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. The objective of this paper is twofold: 1) to investigate the car-carriers freight revenue development over the years when the trade pattern is gradually shifting towards short-sea exports 2) to empirically identify the quantitative impact of such trade pattern shifting to mainly freight rate, but also vessel size, fleet size as well as Green House Gas (GHG) emission in Roll on-Roll Off (Ro-Ro) shipping. In this paper, a model of analyzing and forecasting ton-miles and freight revenues for the trade routes of AS-NA (Asia to North America), EU-NA (Europe to North America), and SA-NA (South America to North America) is established by deploying Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and the financial results of a selected car carrier company. More specifically, Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WALWIL), the Norwegian Ro-Ro carrier listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, is selected as the case study company in this paper. AIS-based ton-mile datasets of WALWIL vessels that are sailing into North America region from three different origins (Asia, Europe, and South America), together with WALWIL’s quarterly freight revenues as reported in trade segments, will be investigated and compared for the past five years (2018-2022). Furthermore, ordinary‐least‐square (OLS) regression is utilized to construct the ton-mile demand and freight revenue forecasting. The determinants of trade pattern shifting, such as import tariffs following the China-US trade war and fuel prices following the 0.1% Emission Control Areas (ECA) zone requirement after IMO2020 will be set as key variable inputs to the machine learning model. The model will be tested on another newly listed Norwegian Car Carrier, Hoegh Autoliner, to forecast its 2022 financial results and to validate the accuracy based on its actual results. GHG emissions on the three routes will be compared and discussed based on a constant emission per mile assumption and voyage distances. Our findings will provide important insights about 1) the trade-off evaluation between revenue reduction and energy saving with the new ton-mile pattern and 2) how the trade flow shifting would influence the future need for the vessel and fleet size.

Keywords: AIS, automobile exports, maritime big data, trade flows

Procedia PDF Downloads 119
201 Influenza Virus Circulation among the Population of Kazakhstan in 2012-2014

Authors: N. G. Klivleyeva, T. I. Glebova, G. V. Lukmanova, S. B. Bayseit, S. Z. Taubaeva, M. K. Kalkozhaeva

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The role of viral diseases in the general infectious disease incidence increases every year and requires special attention to the problem of interpreting the etiology of infectious agents. Influenza and acute respiratory viral infections are one of the most pressing public health issues. In the period 2012-2014, collection of 419 nasal swabs and 150 blood sera has been carried out in the patient care institutions of the various Kazakhstan regions from patients with symptoms of ARVI and pneumonia. Primary identification of biosamples for the presence of influenza viral antigens in enzyme immunoassay on nitrocellulose membrane gave positive results in 125 swabs (29.8%). Biosample screening in immunofluorescence test revealed the presence of influenza viral antigens against A/H1 in 63 samples (15.0%), A/H3 – in 70 samples (16.7%) and type B – in 9 samples (2.1%). As a result of primary infection, and successive passages in chick embryos and MDCK cell cultures, 38 HAAg were isolated from 419 samples with a clear cytopathic effect and hemagglutination titre in MDCK cell culture within 1:2-1:4, in CE - 1:8-1:256. The infectivity of isolates in chicken embryos were 3.5-6.5 lg EID50/0.2, in MDCK cell culture – 2.5-6.5 lg PFU/ml. Identification of 28 isolates was carried out in inhibition reactions of hemagglutinating activity and neuraminidase activity, showed their belonging to the influenza virus: 26 strains to A/H1N1, one - to A/H3N2, and one - to type B. Serological examination of blood sera for the presence of specific antibodies being an indirect evidence of the performed isolation and contributing to the timely interpretation of the disease etiology in the epidemics takes an important place in the comprehensive study of influenza viruses circulating among people. Serological analyzes were carried out in HAI assay using a kit consisting of 12 reference strains obtained from the WHO centre for reference and research on Influenza (CDC, Atlanta, USA) and three Kazakhstan (A/Almaty/347/09 (H1N1v), A/Almaty/462/11 (H3N2) and B/Almaty/414/10) human influenza viruses that are stored in the laboratory collection. The results of serological analysis of 150 blood sera showed that antihaemagglutinins against the A/H3N2 virus serosubtype were found in 46 samples (49.4%) out of 93 sera collected in 2012-2013. The antibody titres were within 1:160-1:320. 19 sera (20.4%) were seropositive against influenza A/H1N1 virus, the antibodies were observed in titres of 1:20-1:40. Six sera (6.4%) were positive against the influenza A/H1N1+A/H3N2 virus (mixed infection); the antibodies were recorded in titres of 1:20-1:40. Antihaemagglutinins against influenza type B virus were detected only in five sera (5.4%). The results of analysis of 57 sera collected in 2014 showed that antihaemagglutinins against A/H3N2 virus subtype were detected in 32 blood sera (56.1%) in titres of 1:160-1:640. Ten sera (17.5%) were seropositive against A/H1N1 virus; antihaemagglutinins against influenza type B virus were not detected. Therefore, virological and serological studies have shown that in Kazakhstan, as well as in the world, the influenza viruses A/H1N1, A/H3N2 and influenza B viruses were actively circulating during the epidemic seasons in 2012-2014.

Keywords: influenza, MDCK cell, serological analysis, virus

Procedia PDF Downloads 184
200 Optimization of the Jatropha curcas Supply Chain as a Criteria for the Implementation of Future Collection Points in Rural Areas of Manabi-Ecuador

Authors: Boris G. German, Edward Jiménez, Sebastián Espinoza, Andrés G. Chico, Ricardo A. Narváez

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The unique flora and fauna of The Galapagos Islands has leveraged a tourism-driven growth in the islands. Nonetheless, such development is energy-intensive and requires thousands of gallons of diesel each year for thermoelectric electricity generation. The needed transport of fossil fuels from the continent has generated oil spillages and affectations to the fragile ecosystem of the islands. The Zero Fossil Fuels initiative for The Galapagos proposed by the Ecuadorian government as an alternative to reduce the use of fossil fuels in the islands, considers the replacement of diesel in thermoelectric generators, by Jatropha curcas vegetable oil. However, the Jatropha oil supply cannot entirely cover yet the demand for electricity generation in Galapagos. Within this context, the present work aims to provide an optimization model that can be used as a selection criterion for approving new Jatropha Curcas collection points in rural areas of Manabi-Ecuador. For this purpose, existing Jatropha collection points in Manabi were grouped under three regions: north (7 collection points), center (4 collection points) and south (9 collection points). Field work was carried out in every region in order to characterize the collection points, to establish local Jatropha supply and to determine transportation costs. Data collection was complemented using GIS software and an objective function was defined in order to determine the profit associated to Jatropha oil production. The market price of both Jatropha oil and residual cake, were considered for the total revenue; whereas Jatropha price, transportation and oil extraction costs were considered for the total cost. The tonnes of Jatropha fruit and seed, transported from collection points to the extraction plant, were considered as variables. The maximum and minimum amount of the collected Jatropha from each region constrained the optimization problem. The supply chain was optimized using linear programming in order to maximize the profits. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to find a profit-based criterion for the acceptance of future collection points in Manabi. The maximum profit reached a value of $ 4,616.93 per year, which represented a total Jatropha collection of 62.3 tonnes Jatropha per year. The northern region of Manabi had the biggest collection share (69%), followed by the southern region (17%). The criteria for accepting new Jatropha collection points in the rural areas of Manabi can be defined by the current maximum profit of the zone and by the variation in the profit when collection points are removed one at a time. The definition of new feasible collection points plays a key role in the supply chain associated to Jatropha oil production. Therefore, a mathematical model that assists decision makers in establishing new collection points while assuring profitability, contributes to guarantee a continued Jatropha oil supply for Galapagos and a sustained economic growth in the rural areas of Ecuador.

Keywords: collection points, Jatropha curcas, linear programming, supply chain

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199 Hybridization of Mathematical Transforms for Robust Video Watermarking Technique

Authors: Harpal Singh, Sakshi Batra

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The widespread and easy accesses to multimedia contents and possibility to make numerous copies without loss of significant fidelity have roused the requirement of digital rights management. Thus this problem can be effectively solved by Digital watermarking technology. This is a concept of embedding some sort of data or special pattern (watermark) in the multimedia content; this information will later prove ownership in case of a dispute, trace the marked document’s dissemination, identify a misappropriating person or simply inform user about the rights-holder. The primary motive of digital watermarking is to embed the data imperceptibly and robustly in the host information. Extensive counts of watermarking techniques have been developed to embed copyright marks or data in digital images, video, audio and other multimedia objects. With the development of digital video-based innovations, copyright dilemma for the multimedia industry increases. Video watermarking had been proposed in recent years to serve the issue of illicit copying and allocation of videos. It is the process of embedding copyright information in video bit streams. Practically video watermarking schemes have to address some serious challenges as compared to image watermarking schemes like real-time requirements in the video broadcasting, large volume of inherently redundant data between frames, the unbalance between the motion and motionless regions etc. and they are particularly vulnerable to attacks, for example, frame swapping, statistical analysis, rotation, noise, median and crop attacks. In this paper, an effective, robust and imperceptible video watermarking algorithm is proposed based on hybridization of powerful mathematical transforms; Fractional Fourier Transform (FrFT), Discrete Wavelet transforms (DWT) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) using redundant wavelet. This scheme utilizes various transforms for embedding watermarks on different layers by using Hybrid systems. For this purpose, the video frames are portioned into layers (RGB) and the watermark is being embedded in two forms in the video frames using SVD portioning of the watermark, and DWT sub-band decomposition of host video, to facilitate copyright safeguard as well as reliability. The FrFT orders are used as the encryption key that allows the watermarking method to be more robust against various attacks. The fidelity of the scheme is enhanced by introducing key generation and wavelet based key embedding watermarking scheme. Thus, for watermark embedding and extraction, same key is required. Therefore the key must be shared between the owner and the verifier via some safe network. This paper demonstrates the performance by considering different qualitative metrics namely Peak Signal to Noise ratio, Structure similarity index and correlation values and also apply some attacks to prove the robustness. The Experimental results are presented to demonstrate that the proposed scheme can withstand a variety of video processing attacks as well as imperceptibility.

Keywords: discrete wavelet transform, robustness, video watermarking, watermark

Procedia PDF Downloads 223
198 Nutrition Support Practices and Nutritional Status of Adolescents Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Selected Hospitals in Ethiopia

Authors: Meless Gebrie Bore, Lin Perry, Xiaoyue Xu, Andargachew Kassa, Marilyn Cruickshank

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Background: Adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV) in Ethiopia face significant health challenges, particularly related to nutrition, which is essential for optimizing antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes. This population is vulnerable to nutritional deficiencies due to increased energy demands and the adverse effects of HIV, alongside rapid growth and low socio-economic status. Despite advances in ART, research on nutritional care for ALHIV in Ethiopia is limited. Integrated nutritional interventions are critical for improving health outcomes, yet comprehensive guidance is lacking. This study aimed to evaluate healthcare workers' practices in ART clinics, assess the nutritional status of ALHIV, and provide recommendations for enhancing nutritional care. Method: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted, recruiting 44 healthcare professionals and 384 ALHIV across ten public hospitals in Addis Ababa and Oromia regions. Participants were selected using purposive sampling for healthcare workers and proportionate random sampling for ALHIV engaged in ART services. Data was collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire with quantitative and qualitative components facilitated by trained healthcare workers through the Kobo Toolbox program. Results: Findings revealed that while most healthcare workers conducted basic nutritional assessments, more sensitive methods were rarely used. Only 36.4% assessed dietary intake and 27.3% evaluated food security. Nutrition counseling was limited, with only 38.6% providing such services regularly. Health Care worker participants expressed dissatisfaction with the integration of nutrition services due to a lack of training and resources. Nutritional assessments revealed that 24.2% of ALHIV were classified as thin, 21.7% as stunted, and 34.9% as malnourished based on mid-upper arm circumference, with 19.4% experiencing severe acute malnutrition. These results highlight the urgent need and opportunities to improve nutritional support tailored to ALHIV-specific needs. Conclusion and Recommendations: Study findings identified evidence of substantial nutritional deficits and critical gaps in nutritional care for ALHIV in Ethiopian ART clinics. While basic assessment and counseling were generally practiced, limited use of more sensitive methods and inadequate integration of nutrition services hindered care effectiveness. To improve health outcomes, it is essential to enhance training for healthcare workers, develop standardized nutrition guidelines, and allocate resources effectively. Conducting further research with large, diverse samples and integrating comprehensive nutritional care alongside ART services will enable better matching of the nutritional needs of this vulnerable population.

Keywords: adolescents living with HIV(ALHIV), antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV, Ethiopia, malnutrition, nutritional support, stunting, thinness

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197 The Effect of Framework Structure on N2O Formation over Cu-Based Zeolites during NH3-SCR Reactions

Authors: Ghodsieh Isapour Toutizad, Aiyong Wang, Joonsoo Han, Derek Creaser, Louise Olsson, Magnus Skoglundh, Hanna HaRelind

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Nitrous oxide (N2O), which is generally formed as a byproduct of industrial chemical processes and fossil fuel combustion, has attracted considerable attention due to its destructive role in global warming and ozone layer depletion. From various developed technologies used for lean NOx reduction, the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) of NOx with ammonia is presently the most applied method. Therefore, the development of catalysts for efficient lean NOx reduction without forming N2O in the process, or only forming it to a very small extent from the exhaust gases is of crucial significance. One type of catalysts that nowadays are used for this aim are zeolite-based catalysts. It is owing to their remarkable catalytic performance under practical reaction conditions such as high thermal stability and high N2 selectivity. Among all zeolites, copper ion-exchanged zeolites, with CHA, MFI, and BEA framework structure (like SSZ-13, ZSM-5 and Beta, respectively), represent higher hydrothermal stability, high activity and N2 selectivity. This work aims at investigating the effect of the zeolite framework structure on the formation of N2O during NH3-SCR reaction conditions over three Cu-based zeolites ranging from small-pore to large-pore framework structure. In the zeolite framework, Cu exists in two cationic forms, that can catalyze the SCR reaction by activating NO to form NO+ and/or surface nitrate species. The nitrate species can thereafter react with NH3 to form another intermediate, ammonium nitrate, which seems to be one source for N2O formation at low temperatures. The results from in situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) indicate that during the NO oxidation step, mainly NO+ and nitrate species are formed on the surface of the catalysts. The intensity of the absorption peak attributed to NO+ species is higher for the Cu-CHA sample compared to the other two samples, indicating a higher stability of this species in small cages. Furthermore, upon the addition of NH3, through the standard SCR reaction conditions, absorption peaks assigned to N-H stretching and bending vibrations are building up. At the same time, negative peaks are evolving in the O-H stretching region, indicating blocking/replacement of surface OH-groups by NH3 and NH4+. By removing NH3 and adding NO2 to the inlet gas composition, the peaks in the N-H stretching and bending vibration regions show a decreasing trend in intensity, with the decrease being more pronounced for increasing pore size. It can probably be owing to the higher accumulation of ammonia species in the small-pore size zeolite compared to the other two samples. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the ammonia surface species are strongly bonded to the CHA zeolite structure, which makes it more difficult to react with NO2. To conclude, the framework structure of the zeolite seems to play an important role in the formation and reactivity of surface species relevant for the SCR process. Here we intend to discuss the connection between the zeolite structure, the surface species, and the formation of N2O during ammonia-SCR.

Keywords: fast SCR, nitrous oxide, NOx, standard SCR, zeolites

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196 The Efficiency of Mechanization in Weed Control in Artificial Regeneration of Oriental Beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky.)

Authors: Tuğrul Varol, Halil Barış Özel

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In this study which has been conducted in Akçasu Forest Range District of Devrek Forest Directorate; 3 methods (cover removal with human force, cover removal with Hitachi F20 Excavator, and cover removal with agricultural equipment mounted on a Ferguson 240S agriculture tractor) utilized in weed control efforts in regeneration of degraded oriental beech forests have been compared. In this respect, 3 methods have been compared by determining certain work hours and standard durations of unit areas (1 hectare). For this purpose, evaluating the tasks made with human and machine force from the aspects of duration, productivity and costs, it has been aimed to determine the most productive method in accordance with the actual ecological conditions of research field. Within the scope of the study, the time studies have been conducted for 3 methods used in weed control efforts. While carrying out those studies, the performed implementations have been evaluated by dividing them into business stages. Also, the actual data have been used while calculating the cost accounts. In those calculations, the latest formulas and equations which are also used in developed countries have been utilized. The variance of analysis (ANOVA) was used in order to determine whether there is any statistically significant difference among obtained results, and the Duncan test was used for grouping if there is significant difference. According to the measurements and findings carried out within the scope of this study, it has been found during living cover removal efforts in regeneration efforts in demolished oriental beech forests that the removal of weed layer in 1 hectare of field has taken 920 hours with human force, 15.1 hours with excavator and 60 hours with an equipment mounted on a tractor. On the other hand, it has been determined that the cost of removal of living cover in unit area (1 hectare) was 3220.00 TL for man power, 788.70 TL for excavator and 2227.20 TL for equipment mounted on a tractor. According to the obtained results, it has been found that the utilization of excavator in weed control effort in regeneration of degraded oriental beech regions under actual ecological conditions of research field has been found to be more productive from both of aspects of duration and costs. These determinations carried out should be repeated in weed control efforts in degraded forest fields with different ecological conditions, it is compulsory for finding the most efficient weed control method. These findings will light the way of technical staff of forestry directorate in determination of the most effective and economic weed contol method. Thus, the more actual data will be used while preparing the weed control budgets, and there will be significant contributions to national economy. Also the results of this and similar studies are very important for developing the policies for our forestry in short and long term.

Keywords: artificial regeneration, weed control, oriental beech, productivity, mechanization, man power, cost analysis

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195 Treatment Outcome Of Corneal Ulcers Using Levofloxacin Hydrate 1.5% Ophthalmic Solution And Adjuvant Oral Ciprofloxacin, A Treatment Strategy Applicable To Primary Healthcare

Authors: Celine Shi Ying Lee, Jong Jian Lee

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Background: Infectious keratitis is one of the leading causes of blindness worldwide. Prompt treatment with effective medication will control the infection early, preventing corneal scarring and visual loss. fluoroquinolones ophthalmic medication is used because of its broad-spectrum properties, potency, good intraocular penetration, and low toxicity. The study aims to evaluate the treatment outcome of corneal ulcers using Levofloxacin 1.5% ophthalmic solution (LVFX) with adjuvant oral ciprofloxacin when indicated and apply this treatment strategy in primary health care as first-line treatment. Methods: Patients with infective corneal ulcer treated in an eye center were recruited. Inclusion criteria includes Corneal infection consistent with bacterial keratitis, single or multiple small corneal ulcers. Treatment regime: LVFX hourly for the first 2 days, 2 hourly from the 3rd day, and 3 hourly on the 5th day of review. Adjuvant oral ciprofloxacin 500mg BD was administered for 5 days if there were multiple corneal ulcers or when the location of the cornea ulcer was central or paracentral. Results: 47 subjects were recruited. There were 16 (34%) males and 31 (66%) females. 40 subjects (85%) were contact lens (CL) related to corneal ulcer, and 7 subjects (15%) were non-contact lens related. 42 subjects (89%) presented with one ulcer, of which 20 of them (48%) needed adjuvant therapy. 5 subjects presented with 2 or 3 ulcers, of which 3 needed adjuvant therapy. A total of 23 subjects (49%) was given adjuvant therapy (oral ciprofloxacin 500mg BD for 5 days).21 of them (91%) were CL related. All subjects recovered fully, and the average duration of treatment was 3.7 days, with 49% of the subjects resolved on the 3rd day, 38% on the 5thday of and 13% on the 7thday. All subjects showed symptoms of relief of pain, light-sensitivity, and redness on the 3rd day with full visual recovery post-treatment. No adverse drug reactions were recorded. Conclusion: Our treatment regime demonstrated good clinical outcome as first-line treatment for corneal ulcers. A corneal ulcer is a common eye condition in Singapore, mainly due to CL wear. Pseudomonas aeruginosa is the most frequent and potentially sight-threatening pathogen involved in CL related corneal ulcer. Coagulase-negative Staphylococci, Staphylococcus aureus, and Streptococcus Pneumoniae were seen in non-CL users. All these bacteria exhibit good sensitivity rates to ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin. It is therefore logical in our study to use LVFX Eyedrops and adjuvant ciprofloxacin oral antibiotics when indicated as first line treatment for most corneal ulcers. Our study of patients, both CL related and non-CL related, have shown good clinical response and full recovery using the above treatment strategy. There was also a full restoration of visual acuity in all the patients. Eye-trained primary Healthcare practitioners can consider adopting this treatment strategy as first line treatment in patients with corneal ulcers. This is relevant during the COVID pandemic, where hospitals are overwhelmed with patients and in regions with limited access to specialist eye care. This strategy would enable early treatment with better clinical outcome.

Keywords: corneal ulcer, levofloxacin hydrate, treatment strategy, ciprofloxacin

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194 Multi-Agent System Based Distributed Voltage Control in Distribution Systems

Authors: A. Arshad, M. Lehtonen. M. Humayun

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With the increasing Distributed Generation (DG) penetration, distribution systems are advancing towards the smart grid technology for least latency in tackling voltage control problem in a distributed manner. This paper proposes a Multi-agent based distributed voltage level control. In this method a flat architecture of agents is used and agents involved in the whole controlling procedure are On Load Tap Changer Agent (OLTCA), Static VAR Compensator Agent (SVCA), and the agents associated with DGs and loads at their locations. The objectives of the proposed voltage control model are to minimize network losses and DG curtailments while maintaining voltage value within statutory limits as close as possible to the nominal. The total loss cost is the sum of network losses cost, DG curtailment costs, and voltage damage cost (which is based on penalty function implementation). The total cost is iteratively calculated for various stricter limits by plotting voltage damage cost and losses cost against varying voltage limit band. The method provides the optimal limits closer to nominal value with minimum total loss cost. In order to achieve the objective of voltage control, the whole network is divided into multiple control regions; downstream from the controlling device. The OLTCA behaves as a supervisory agent and performs all the optimizations. At first, a token is generated by OLTCA on each time step and it transfers from node to node until the node with voltage violation is detected. Upon detection of such a node, the token grants permission to Load Agent (LA) for initiation of possible remedial actions. LA will contact the respective controlling devices dependent on the vicinity of the violated node. If the violated node does not lie in the vicinity of the controller or the controlling capabilities of all the downstream control devices are at their limits then OLTC is considered as a last resort. For a realistic study, simulations are performed for a typical Finnish residential medium-voltage distribution system using Matlab ®. These simulations are executed for two cases; simple Distributed Voltage Control (DVC) and DVC with optimized loss cost (DVC + Penalty Function). A sensitivity analysis is performed based on DG penetration. The results indicate that costs of losses and DG curtailments are directly proportional to the DG penetration, while in case 2 there is a significant reduction in total loss. For lower DG penetration, losses are reduced more or less 50%, while for higher DG penetration, loss reduction is not very significant. Another observation is that the newer stricter limits calculated by cost optimization moves towards the statutory limits of ±10% of the nominal with the increasing DG penetration as for 25, 45 and 65% limits calculated are ±5, ±6.25 and 8.75% respectively. Observed results conclude that the novel voltage control algorithm proposed in case 1 is able to deal with the voltage control problem instantly but with higher losses. In contrast, case 2 make sure to reduce the network losses through proposed iterative method of loss cost optimization by OLTCA, slowly with time.

Keywords: distributed voltage control, distribution system, multi-agent systems, smart grids

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193 Reconstruction of Age-Related Generations of Siberian Larch to Quantify the Climatogenic Dynamics of Woody Vegetation Close the Upper Limit of Its Growth

Authors: A. P. Mikhailovich, V. V. Fomin, E. M. Agapitov, V. E. Rogachev, E. A. Kostousova, E. S. Perekhodova

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Woody vegetation among the upper limit of its habitat is a sensitive indicator of biota reaction to regional climate changes. Quantitative assessment of temporal and spatial changes in the distribution of trees and plant biocenoses calls for the development of new modeling approaches based upon selected data from measurements on the ground level and ultra-resolution aerial photography. Statistical models were developed for the study area located in the Polar Urals. These models allow obtaining probabilistic estimates for placing Siberian Larch trees into one of the three age intervals, namely 1-10, 11-40 and over 40 years, based on the Weilbull distribution of the maximum horizontal crown projection. Authors developed the distribution map for larch trees with crown diameters exceeding twenty centimeters by deciphering aerial photographs made by a UAV from an altitude equal to fifty meters. The total number of larches was equal to 88608, forming the following distribution row across the abovementioned intervals: 16980, 51740, and 19889 trees. The results demonstrate that two processes can be observed in the course of recent decades: first is the intensive forestation of previously barren or lightly wooded fragments of the study area located within the patches of wood, woodlands, and sparse stand, and second, expansion into mountain tundra. The current expansion of the Siberian Larch in the region replaced the depopulation process that occurred in the course of the Little Ice Age from the late 13ᵗʰ to the end of the 20ᵗʰ century. Using data from field measurements of Siberian larch specimen biometric parameters (including height, diameter at root collar and at 1.3 meters, and maximum projection of the crown in two orthogonal directions) and data on tree ages obtained at nine circular test sites, authors developed a model for artificial neural network including two layers with three and two neurons, respectively. The model allows quantitative assessment of a specimen's age based on height and maximum crone projection values. Tree height and crown diameters can be quantitatively assessed using data from aerial photographs and lidar scans. The resulting model can be used to assess the age of all Siberian larch trees. The proposed approach, after validation, can be applied to assessing the age of other tree species growing near the upper tree boundaries in other mountainous regions. This research was collaboratively funded by the Russian Ministry for Science and Education (project No. FEUG-2023-0002) and Russian Science Foundation (project No. 24-24-00235) in the field of data modeling on the basis of artificial neural network.

Keywords: treeline, dynamic, climate, modeling

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192 Distributed Energy Resources in Low-Income Communities: a Public Policy Proposal

Authors: Rodrigo Calili, Anna Carolina Sermarini, João Henrique Azevedo, Vanessa Cardoso de Albuquerque, Felipe Gonçalves, Gilberto Jannuzzi

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The diffusion of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) has caused structural changes in the relationship between consumers and electrical systems. The Photovoltaic Distributed Generation (PVDG), in particular, is an essential strategy for achieving the 2030 Agenda goals, especially SDG 7 and SDG 13. However, it is observed that most projects involving this technology in Brazil are restricted to the wealthiest classes of society, not yet reaching the low-income population, aligned with theories of energy justice. Considering the research for energy equality, one of the policies adopted by governments is the social electricity tariff (SET), which provides discounts on energy tariffs/bills. However, just granting this benefit may not be effective, and it is possible to merge it with DER technologies, such as the PVDG. Thus, this work aims to evaluate the economic viability of the policy to replace the social electricity tariff (the current policy aimed at the low-income population in Brazil) by PVDG projects. To this end, a proprietary methodology was developed that included: mapping the stakeholders, identifying critical variables, simulating policy options, and carrying out an analysis in the Brazilian context. The simulation answered two key questions: in which municipalities low-income consumers would have lower bills with PVDG compared to SET; which consumers in a given city would have increased subsidies, which are now provided for solar energy in Brazil and for the social tariff. An economic model was created for verifying the feasibility of the proposed policy in each municipality in the country, considering geographic issues (tariff of a particular distribution utility, radiation from a specific location, etc.). To validate these results, four sensitivity analyzes were performed: variation of the simultaneity factor between generation and consumption, variation of the tariff readjustment rate, zeroing CAPEX, and exemption from state tax. The behind-the-meter modality of generation proved to be more promising than the construction of a shared plant. However, although the behind-the-meter modality presents better results than the shared plant, there is a greater complexity in adopting this modality due to issues related to the infrastructure of the most vulnerable communities (e.g., precarious electrical networks, need to reinforce roofs). Considering the shared power plant modality, many opportunities are still envisaged since the risk of investing in such a policy can be mitigated. Furthermore, this modality can be an alternative due to the mitigation of the risk of default, as it allows greater control of users and facilitates the process of operation and maintenance. Finally, it was also found, that in some regions of Brazil, the continuity of the SET presents more economic benefits than its replacement by PVDG. However, the proposed policy offers many opportunities. For future works, the model may include other parameters, such as cost with low-income populations’ engagement, and business risk. In addition, other renewable sources of distributed generation can be studied for this purpose.

Keywords: low income, subsidy policy, distributed energy resources, energy justice

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