Search results for: concentration risk

Authors: Debajyoti Choudhuri, Ratan Kumar Giri, Shesadev Pradhan

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The perturbed nonlinear Schrodinger equation involving the p-biharmonic and the p-Laplacian operators involving a real valued parameter and a continuous real valued potential function defined over the N- dimensional Euclidean space has been considered. By the variational technique, an existence result pertaining to a nontrivial solution to this non-linear partial differential equation has been proposed. Further, by the Concentration lemma, the concentration of solutions to the same problem defined on the set consisting of those elements where the potential function vanishes as the real parameter approaches to infinity has been addressed.

Keywords: p-Laplacian, p-biharmonic, elliptic PDEs, Concentration lemma, Sobolev space

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Authors: Teresa Smith, Farrah Jacquez

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Health-risk behaviors (e.g., smoking, poor diet) directly increase the risk for chronic disease and morbidity. There is substantial evidence of a negative association between socioeconomic status (SES) and engagement in health-risk behaviors. However, due to the complexity of SES, researchers have suggested looking beyond this factor to fully understand the mechanisms that underlie engagement in health-risk behaviors. Stress is one plausible mechanism through which SES impacts health-risk behaviors. Currently, it remains unclear how stress occurring across the life course might impact health behaviors and explain the association between SES and these behaviors. To address the gaps in the literature, 172 adults between the ages of 18-49 were surveyed about their lifetime stress exposure, sociodemographic variables, and health-risk behaviors via an online recruitment portal, Prolific. Five major findings emerged from the current study. First, SES was negatively associated with engagement in health-risk behaviors and lifetime stress above and beyond current stress and other relevant demographics. Second, lifetime stress was significantly associated with health-risk behaviors above and beyond current stress and relevant demographic variables. Third, lifetime stress fully mediated the association between SES and health-risk behaviors above and beyond current stress and other demographics. Fourth, the severity of stress experienced emerged as the most significant lifetime stress variable that explains the relation between SES and health-risk behaviors. Fifth and finally, lower SES and experiencing financial and legal/crime stressors increased the likelihood of engaging in health-risk behaviors. The current study results align with previous research and suggest that stress occurring over the lifespan impacts the relation between SES and health-risk behaviors, which are in turn known to impact health outcomes. However, our findings move the current literature forward by providing a more nuanced understanding of the specific aspects of stress that influence this association. Specifically, the severity of stress experienced across the entire lifespan was the most important aspect of stress when examining the association between SES and health-risk behaviors. Further, individuals most at risk for engaging in health-risk behaviors are those of the lowest SES and experience financial and legal/crime stressors. These findings have the potential to inform interventions and policies aimed at addressing health-risk behaviors by providing a more sophisticated understanding of the impact of stress.

Keywords: stress, health behaviors, socioeconomic status, health

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Authors: Aderet M. Pantierer, Shmuel Pantierer, Raphael Cordina, Yougashwar Budhoo

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Stress concentration occurs when there is an abrupt change in geometry, a mechanical part under loading. These changes in geometry can include holes, notches, or cracks within the component. The modifications create larger stress within the part. This maximum stress is difficult to determine, as it is directly at the point of the minimum area. Strain gauges have yet to be developed to analyze stresses at such minute areas. Therefore, a stress concentration factor must be utilized. The stress concentration factor is a dimensionless parameter calculated solely on the geometry of a part. The factor is multiplied by the nominal, or average, stress of the component, which can be found analytically or experimentally. Stress concentration graphs exist for common loading conditions and geometrical configurations to aid in the determination of the maximum stress a part can withstand. These graphs were developed from historical data yielded from experimentation. This project seeks to verify a stress concentration graph for combined loading conditions. The aforementioned graph was developed using CATIA Finite Element Analysis software. The results of this analysis will be validated through further testing. The 3D modeled parts will be subjected to further finite element analysis using Patran-Nastran software. The finite element models will then be verified by testing physical specimen using a tensile testing machine. Once the data is validated, the unique stress concentration graph will be submitted for publication so it can aid engineers in future projects.

Keywords: stress concentration, finite element analysis, finite element models, combined loading

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Authors: Seyed Sajjad Habibi

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The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of global financial crises and corporate financial crisis on tax evasion of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, panel data in the periods of financial crisis period (2007 to 2012) and without a financial crisis (2004, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014, and 2015) was analyzed using multivariate linear regression. The results indicate a significant relationship between the corporate financial crisis (bankruptcy risk) and tax evasion in the global financial crisis period. The results also showed a significant relationship between the corporate bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period with no global financial crisis. A significant difference was found between the bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period of the global financial crisis and that with no financial crisis so that tax evasion increased in the financial crisis period.

Keywords: global financial crisis, corporate financial crisis, bankruptcy risk, tax evasion risk, emerging markets

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Authors: Negar Ganjouhaghighi, Amirali Dolatshahi

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The origin of most risks of a mega project usually takes place in the phases before closing the contract. As a practical point of view, using project risk management techniques for preparing a proposal is not a total solution for managing the risks of a contract. The objective of this paper is to cover all those activities associated with risk management of a mega project sale’s processes; from entrance to a new market to awarding activities and the review of contract performance. In this study, the risk management happens in six consecutive steps that are divided into three distinct but interdependent phases upstream of the award of the contract: pre-tendering, tendering and closing. In the first step, by preparing standard market risk report, risks of the new market are identified. The next step is the bid or no bid decision making based on the previous gathered data. During the next three steps in tendering phase, project risk management techniques are applied for determining how much contingency reserve must be added or reduced to the estimated cost in order to put the residual risk to an acceptable level. Finally, the last step which happens in closing phase would be an overview of the project risks and final clarification of residual risks. The sales experience of more than 20,000 MW turn-key power plant projects alongside this framework, are used to develop a software that assists the sales team to have a better project risk management.

Keywords: project marketing, risk management, tendering, project management, turn-key projects

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Authors: Theophilus Adjirackor, Frederic Sam, Irene Opoku-Ntim, David Okoh Kpeglo, Prince K. Gyekye, Frank K. Quashie, Kofi Ofori

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Indoor radon concentrations were collected monthly over a period of one year in 10 different levels in an underground goldmine, and the data was analyzed using a four-moving average time series to determine the relationship between the depths of the underground mine and the indoor radon concentration. The detectors were installed in batches within four quarters. The measurements were carried out using LR115 solid-state nuclear track detectors. Statistical models are applied in the prediction and analysis of the radon concentration at various depths. The time series model predicted a positive relationship between the depth of the underground mine and the indoor radon concentration. Thus, elevated radon concentrations are expected at deeper levels of the underground mine, but the relationship was insignificant at the 5% level of significance with a negative adjusted R2 (R2 = – 0.021) due to an appropriate engineering and adequate ventilation rate in the underground mine.

Keywords: LR115, radon concentration, rime series, underground goldmine

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Authors: Seyed-Ahmad Shahidi, Salemeh Kazemzadeh, Mehdi Sharifi Soltani, Azade Ghorbani-HasanSaraei

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The kinetics of colour changes of American Pokeweed extract, due to concentration by various heating methods was studied. Three different heating/evaporation processes were employed for production of American Pokeweed extract concentrate. The American Pokeweed extract was concentrated to a final 40 °Brix from an initial °Brix of 4 by microwave heating, rotary vacuum evaporator and evaporating at atmospheric pressure. The final American Pokeweed extract concentration of 40 °Brix was achieved in 188, 216 and 320 min by using microwave, rotary vacuum and atmospheric heating processes, respectively. The colour change during concentration processes was investigated. Total colour differences, Hunter L, a and b parameters were used to estimate the extent of colour loss. All Hunter colour parameters decreased with time. The zero-order, first-order and a combined kinetics model were applied to the changes in colour parameters. All models were found to describe the L, a and b-data adequately. Results indicated that variation in TCD followed both first-order and combined kinetics models. This model implied that the colour formation and pigment destruction occurred during concentration processes of American Pokeweed extract.

Keywords: American pokeweed, colour, concentration, kinetics

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Authors: Ender Su, Kai Wen Wong, I-Ling Ju, Ya-Ling Wang

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In this study, the systemic risk change of Taiwan’s banking sector is analyzed during the financial crisis. The risk expose of each financial institutions to the whole Taiwan banking systemic risk or vice versa under financial distress are measured by conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and conditional coherent expected shortfall (CoES). The CoVaR and CoES are estimated by using vector quantile autoregression (MVMQ-CaViaR) with the daily stock returns of each banks included domestic and foreign banks in Taiwan. The daily in-sample data covered the period from 05/20/2002 to 07/31/2007 and the out-of-sample period until 12/31/2013 spanning the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis, 2010 Greek debt crisis, and post risk duration. All banks in Taiwan are categorised into several groups according to their size of market capital, leverage and domestic/foreign to find out what the extent of changes of the systemic risk as the risk changes between the individuals in the bank groups and vice versa. The final results can provide a guidance to financial supervisory commission of Taiwan to gauge the downside risk in the system of financial institutions and determine the minimum capital requirement hold by financial institutions due to the sensibility changes in CoVaR and CoES of each banks.

Keywords: bank financial distress, vector quantile autoregression, CoVaR, CoES

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Authors: Salima Smiti, Ines Gasmi, Makram Soui

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Credit risk is the most important issue for financial institutions. Its assessment becomes an important task used to predict defaulter customers and classify customers as good or bad payers. To this objective, numerous techniques have been applied for credit risk assessment. However, to our knowledge, several evaluation techniques are black-box models such as neural networks, SVM, etc. They generate applicants’ classes without any explanation. In this paper, we propose to assess credit risk using rules classification method. Our output is a set of rules which describe and explain the decision. To this end, we will compare seven classification algorithms (JRip, Decision Table, OneR, ZeroR, Fuzzy Rule, PART and Genetic programming (GP)) where the goal is to find the best rules satisfying many criteria: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The obtained results confirm the efficiency of the GP algorithm for German and Australian datasets compared to other rule-based techniques to predict the credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, classification algorithms, data mining, rule extraction

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Authors: S. M. AL-Shomar, N. B. Ibrahim, Sahrim Hj. Ahmad

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ZnO thin films with various Gd doping concentration (0, 0.01, 0.03 and 0.05 mol/L) have been synthesized by sol–gel method on quartz substrates at annealing temperature of 600 ºC. X-ray analysis reveals that ZnO(Gd) films have hexagonal wurtzite structure. No peaks that correspond to Gd metal clusters or gadolinium acetylacetonate are detected in the patterns. The position of the main peak (101) shifts to higher angles after doping. The surface morphologies studied using a field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM) showed that the grain size and the films thickness reduced gradually with the increment of Gd concentration. The roughness of ZnO film investigated by an atomic force microscopy (AFM) showed that the films are smooth and high dense grain. The roughness of doped films decreased from 6.05 to 4.84 rms with the increment of dopant concentration.The optical measurements using a UV-Vis-NIR spectroscopy showed that the Gd doped ZnO thin films have high transmittance (above 80%) in the visible range and the optical band gap increase with doping concentration from 3.13 to 3.39 eV. The doped films show low electrical resistivity 2.6 × 10-3Ω.cm.at high doping concentration.

Keywords: Gd doped ZnO, electric, optics, microstructure

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Authors: Francisco Pedroza-Montero, Jesús Naín Pedroza-Montero, Diego Soto-Puebla, Osiris Alvarez-Bajo, Beatriz Castaneda, Sofía Navarro-Espinoza, Martín Pedroza-Montero

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Nanodiamonds have been widely studied for their physical properties, including chemical inertness, biocompatibility, optical transparency from the ultraviolet to the infrared region, high thermal conductivity, and mechanical strength. In this work, we studied how the fluorescence spectrum of nanodiamonds quenches concerning the concentration in aqueous solutions systematically ranging from 0.1 to 10 mg/mL. Our results demonstrated a non-linear fluorescence quenching as the concentration increases for both of the NV zero-phonon lines; the 5 mg/mL concentration shows the maximum fluorescence emission. Furthermore, this behaviour is theoretically explained as an electronic recombination process that modulates the intensity in the NV centres. Finally, to gain more insight, the FRET methodology is used to determine the fluorescence efficiency in terms of the fluorophores' separation distance. Thus, the concentration level is simulated as follows, a small distance between nanodiamonds would be considered a highly concentrated system, whereas a large distance would mean a low concentrated one. Although the 5 mg/mL concentration shows the maximum intensity, our main interest is focused on the concentration of 0.5 mg/mL, which our studies demonstrate the optimal human cell viability (99%). In this respect, this concentration has the feature of being as biocompatible as water giving the possibility to internalize it in cells without harming the living media. To this end, not only can we track nanodiamonds on the surface or inside the cell with excellent precision due to their fluorescent intensity, but also, we can perform thermometry tests transforming a fluorescence contrast image into a temperature contrast image.

Keywords: nanodiamonds, fluorescence spectroscopy, concentration, bioimaging, thermometry

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Haroon Mahmood, Christopher Gan, Cuong Nguyen

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Maturity transformation risk is highlighted as one of the major causes of recent global financial crisis. Basel III has proposed new liquidity regulations for transformation function of banks and hence to monitor this risk. Specifically, net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is introduced to enhance medium- and long-term resilience against liquidity shocks. Islamic banking is widely accepted in many parts of the world and contributes to a significant portion of the financial sector in many countries. Using a dataset of 68 fully fledged Islamic banks from 11 different countries, over a period from 2005 – 2014, this study has attempted to analyze various factors that may significantly affect the maturity transformation risk in these banks. We utilize 2-step system GMM estimation technique on unbalanced panel and find bank capital, credit risk, financing, size and market power are most significant among the bank specific factors. Also, gross domestic product and inflation are the significant macro-economic factors influencing this risk. However, bank profitability, asset efficiency, and income diversity are found insignificant in determining the maturity transformation risk in Islamic banking model.

Keywords: Basel III, Islamic banking, maturity transformation risk, net stable funding ratio

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Authors: Ireneusz Majsterek, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Jacek Kabzinski

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Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the deadliest cancers. Every year we see an increase in the number of cases, and in spite of intensive research etiology of the disease remains unknown. For many years, researchers are seeking to associate genetic factors with an increased risk of CRC, so far it has proved to be a compelling link between the MMR system of DNA repair and hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancers (HNPCC). Currently, research is focused on finding the relationship between the remaining DNA repair systems and an increased risk of developing colorectal cancer. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Ser835Ser of XPF gene and Gly23Ala of XPA gene–elements of NER DNA repair system, and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 23Gly/Ala of XPA gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer, while 23Ala/Ala as well as TCT allele of Ser835Ser of XPF gene may reduce the risk of CRC.

Keywords: NER, colorectal cancer, XPA, XPF, polymorphisms

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

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During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment

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Authors: Mohamed Hamada Abdelkader Fayed

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Background: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a screening test to exclude AAS. Methods: We conducted research for the studies examining the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD- RS)+ D-dimer to exclude the diagnosis of AAS, We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane of Trials up to 31 December 2020. Results: We identified 3 studies using (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a diagnostic tool for AAS, involving 3261 patients were AAS was diagnosed in 559(17.14%) patients. Overall results showed that the pooled sensitivities were 97.6 (95% CI 0.95.6, 99.6) at (ADD-RS)≤1(low risk group) with D-dimer and 97.4(95% CI 0.95.4,, 99.4) at (ADD-RS)>1(High risk group) with D-dimer., the failure rate was 0.48% at low risk group and 4.3% at high risk group respectively. Conclusions: (ADD-RS) with D-dimer was a useful screening test with high sensitivity to exclude Acute Aortic Syndrome.

Keywords: aortic dissection detection risk score, D-dimer, acute aortic syndrome, diagnostic accuracy

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Authors: Magdalena Barbara Kaziuk, Waldemar Kosiba

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Background: Obesity, particularly abdominal type, lead to accelerated progress of atherosclerosis and thus affects the functioning of various human organs. Non-HDL cholesterol includes residual risk of the cardiovascular diseases which persists in patients after achieved recommended level of LDL cholesterol. The maintenance of normal body mass index plays a particularly important role in both the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases. Materials and Methods: The study covered 96 patients (55 females, 42 males, age 66,9 +/-10,2 years). The nutritional status was determined with the Waist to Height Ratio (WHtR) and the Waist to Hip Ratio (WHR). A function of the kidney was evaluated by calculating the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the MDRD formula. Non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL) is simply the difference between the total cholesterol concentration and the HDL cholesterol concentration. Results: The higher was level of non-HDL cholesterol, the lower eGFR had studied subjects (p<0.001). Significant correlation was found between higher WHtR and lower the eGFR (p=0.002). Also underweight (30% of patient) led to obtaining lower values of eGFR in subjects over 65 years old. The poorer nutrition the lower was glomerular filtration rate. Conclusions: Nutritional statuses of patients have a significant impact on the level of kidney function. Not only accumulated excess fat in the abdominal area, but also its deficiency affects the deterioration in renal filtration. Higher level of non-HDL not only raises the residual risk of the heart disease but also influences on kidney by worsening eGFR. Proper diet in connection with physical activity should lead to achieving good nutrition in these patients and protect their kidney function.

Keywords: nutrition, non-HDL cholesterol, glomerular filtration rate, lifestyle

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Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

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Authors: Abderrahmen Aloulou, Younes Boujelbene

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The current paper displays a new method of extracting information content from options prices by eliminating biases caused by daily variation of contract maturity. Based on Kernel regression tool, this non-parametric technique serves to obtain a spectrum of interpolated options with constant maturity horizons from negotiated optional contracts on the S&P TSX 60 index. This method makes it plausible to compare daily risk neutral densities from which extracting time continuous indicators allows the detection traders attitudes’ evolution, such as, belief homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme Risk Perception. Our findings indicate that the applied method contribute to develop effective trading strategies and to adjust monetary policies through controlling trader’s reactions to economic and monetary news.

Keywords: risk neutral densities, kernel, constant maturity horizons, homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme risk perception

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Authors: Muhammad Fiaz, Muhammad Saqlain, Abid Mahmood, S. M. Saqlan Naqvi, Rizwan Aziz Qazi, Ghazala Kaukab Raja

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Background: Metabolic Syndrome is a clustering of multiple risk factors including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. These risk phenotypes of metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalent world-wide, Therefore we aimed to identify the frequency of risk phenotypes among metabolic syndrome subjects in local adult Pakistani population. Methods: Screening of subjects visiting out-patient department of medicine, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Medical University, Islamabad was performed to assess the occurrence of risk phenotypes among MetS subjects in Pakistani population. The Metabolic Syndrome was defined based on International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Anthropometric and biochemical assay results were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS software (16.0). Results: Our results showed that dyslipidemia (31.50%) and hyperglycemia (30.50%) was most population specific risk phenotypes of MetS. The results showed the order of association of metabolic risk phenotypes to MetS as follows hyperglycemia>dyslipidemia>obesity >hypertension. Conclusion: The hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia were found be the major risk phenotypes among the MetS subjects and have greater chances of deceloping MetS among Pakistani Population.

Keywords: dyslipidemia, hypertention, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: Retno Ambarwati Sigit Lestari

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Microalga is one of the organisms that can be considered ideal and potential for raw material of bioenergy production, because the content of lipids in microalga is relatively high. Microalga is an aquatic organism that produces complex organic compounds from inorganic molecules using carbon dioxide as a carbon source, and sunlight for energy supply. Microalga-CO₂ fixation has potential advantages over other carbon captures and storage approaches, such as wide distribution, high photosynthetic rate, good environmental adaptability, and ease of operation. The rates of growth and CO₂ capture of microalga are influenced by CO₂ concentration and light intensity. This study quantitatively investigates the effects of CO₂ concentration on the rates of growth and CO₂ capture of a type of microalga, cultivated in bioreactors. The works include laboratory experiments as well as mathematical modelling. The mathematical models were solved numerically and the accuracy of the model was tested by the experimental data. It turned out that the mathematical model proposed can well quantitatively describe the growth and CO₂ capture of microalga, in which the effects of CO₂ concentration can be observed.

Keywords: Microalga, CO2 concentration, photobioreactor, mathematical model

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Authors: Narissara Nuthammachot, Dimitris Stratoulias

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Fire is one of the main causes of environmental and ecosystem change. Therefore, it is a challenging task for fire risk assessment fire potential mapping. The study area is Hua Sai district, Nakorn Sri Thammarat province, which covers in a part of peat swamp forest areas. 55 fire points in peat swamp areas were reported from 2012 to 2016. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods were selected for this study. The risk fire area map was arranged on these factors; elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance from the river, distance from town, and land use. The results showed that the predicted fire risk areas are found to be in appreciable reliability with past fire events. The fire risk map can be used for the planning and management of fire areas in the future.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fire risk assessment, geographic information system, peat swamp forest

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: information system, risk, control, FMECA method

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

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There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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Authors: J. Ramirez, A. Maldonado, M. de la L. Olvera

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The effect of both the molar concentration of the starting solution and the substrate temperature on the electrical, morphological, structural and optical properties of chemically sprayed fluorine-doped zinc oxide (ZnO:F) thin films deposited on glass substrates, is analyzed in this work. All the starting solutions employed were aged for ten days before the deposition. The results show that as the molar concentration increases, a decrease in the electrical resistivity values is obtained, reaching the minimum in films deposited from a 0.4 M solution at 500°C. A further increase in the molar concentration leads to a very slight increase in the resistivity. On the other hand, as the substrate temperature is increased, the resistivity decreases and a tendency towards to minimum value is evidenced; taking the molar concentration as parameter, minimum values are reached at 500°C. The attain of ZnO:F thin films, with a resistivity as low as 7.8×10-3 Ώcm (sheet resistance of 130 Ώ/☐ and film thickness of 600 nm) measured in as-deposited films is reported here for the first time. The concurrent effect of the high molar concentration of the starting solution, the substrate temperature values used, and the ageing of the starting solution, which might cause polymerization of the zinc ions with the fluorine species, enhance the electrical properties. The structure of the films is polycrystalline, with a (002) preferential growth. Molar concentration rules the surface morphology as at low concentration an hexagonal and porous structure is developed changing to a uniform compact and small grain size surface in the films deposited with the high molar concentrations.

Keywords: zinc oxide, chemical spray, thin films, TCO

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Mary Joy B. Amoguis, Alonah Jane D. Labtic, Hyna Wary Namoca, Aira Jane V. Original

Abstract:

Animal waste has been rapidly increasing due to the growing animal population and the lack of innovative waste management practices. In a country like the Philippines, animal waste is rampant. This study aims to minimize animal waste by producing garden bricks using cat stool as an additive. The research study analyzes different levels of concentration to determine the most efficient combination in terms of compressive strength and durability of cat stool as an additive to garden bricks. The researcher's first collects the cat stool and incinerates the different concentrations. The first concentration is 25% cat stool and 75% cement mixture. The second concentration is 50% cat stool and 50% cement mixture. And the third concentration is 75% cat stool and 25% cement mixture. The researchers analyze the statistical data using one-way ANOVA, and the statistical analysis revealed a significant difference compared to the controlled variable. The research findings show an inversely proportional relationship: the higher the concentration of cat stool additive, the lower the compressive strength of the bricks, and the lower the concentration of cat stool additive, the higher the compressive strength of the bricks.

Keywords: cat stool, garden bricks, cement, concentrations, animal wastes, compressive strength, durability, one-way ANOVA, additive, incineration, aggregates, stray cats

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 289