Search results for: heat exchange coefficient
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6332

Search results for: heat exchange coefficient

3812 Alterations of Molecular Characteristics of Polyethylene under the Influence of External Effects

Authors: Vigen Barkhudaryan

Abstract:

The influence of external effects (γ-, UV–radiations, high temperature) in presence of air oxygen on structural transformations of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) have been investigated dependent on the polymers’ thickness, the intensity and the dose of external actions. The methods of viscosimetry, light scattering, turbidimetry and gelation measuring were used for this purpose. The comparison of influence of external effects on LDPE shows, that the destruction and cross-linking processes of macromolecules proceed simultaneously with all kinds of external effects. A remarkable growth of average molecular mass of LDPE along with the irradiation doses and heat treatment exposure growth was established. It was linear for the mass average molecular mass and at the initial doses is mainly the result of the increase of the macromolecular branching. As a result, the macromolecular hydrodynamic volumes have been changed, and therefore the dependence of viscosity average molecular mass on the doses was going through the minimum at initial doses. A significant change of molecular mass, sizes and shape of macromolecules of LDPE occurs under the influence of external effects. The influence is limited only by diffusion of oxygen during -irradiation and heat treatment. At UV–irradiation the influence is limited both by diffusion of oxygen and penetration of radiation. Consequently, the molecular transformations are deeper and evident in case of -irradiation, as soon as the polymer is transformed in a whole volume. It was also established, that the mechanism of molecular transformations in polymers from the surface layer distinctly differs from those of the sample deeper layer. A comparison of the results of these investigations allows us to conclude, that the mechanisms of influence of investigated external effects on polyethylene are similar.

Keywords: cross-linking, destruction, high temperature, LDPE, γ-radiations, UV-radiations

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3811 Investigating the Relationship between Growth, Beta and Liquidity

Authors: Zahra Amirhosseini, Mahtab Nameni

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between growth, beta, and Company's cash. We calculate cash as dependent variable and growth opportunity and beta as independent variables. This study was based on an analysis of panel data. Population of the study is the companies which listed in Tehran Stock exchange and a financial data of 215 companies during the period 2010 to 2015 have been selected as the sample through systematic sampling. The results of the first hypothesis showed there is a significant relationship between growth opportunities cash holdings. Also according to the analysis done in the second hypothesis, we determined that there is an inverse relation between company risk and cash holdings.

Keywords: growth, beta, liquidity, company

Procedia PDF Downloads 391
3810 Pre-conditioning and Hot Water Sanitization of Reverse Osmosis Membrane for Medical Water Production

Authors: Supriyo Das, Elbir Jove, Ajay Singh, Sophie Corbet, Noel Carr, Martin Deetz

Abstract:

Water is a critical commodity in the healthcare and medical field. The utility of medical-grade water spans from washing surgical equipment, drug preparation to the key element of life-saving therapy such as hydrotherapy and hemodialysis for patients. A properly treated medical water reduces the bioburden load and mitigates the risk of infection, ensuring patient safety. However, any compromised condition during the production of medical-grade water can create a favorable environment for microbial growth putting patient safety at high risk. Therefore, proper upstream treatment of the medical water is essential before its application in healthcare, pharma and medical space. Reverse Osmosis (RO) is one of the most preferred treatments within healthcare industries and is recommended by all International Pharmacopeias to achieve the quality level demanded by global regulatory bodies. The RO process can remove up to 99.5% of constituents from feed water sources, eliminating bacteria, proteins and particles sizes of 100 Dalton and above. The combination of RO with other downstream water treatment technologies such as Electrodeionization and Ultrafiltration meet the quality requirements of various pharmacopeia monographs to produce highly purified water or water for injection for medical use. In the reverse osmosis process, the water from a liquid with a high concentration of dissolved solids is forced to flow through an especially engineered semi-permeable membrane to the low concentration side, resulting in high-quality grade water. However, these specially engineered RO membranes need to be sanitized either chemically or at high temperatures at regular intervals to keep the bio-burden at the minimum required level. In this paper, we talk about Dupont´s FilmTec Heat Sanitizable Reverse Osmosis membrane (HSRO) for the production of medical-grade water. An HSRO element must be pre-conditioned prior to initial use by exposure to hot water (80°C-85°C) for its stable performance and to meet the manufacturer’s specifications. Without pre-conditioning, the membrane will show variations in feed pressure operations and salt rejection. The paper will discuss the critical variables of pre-conditioning steps that can affect the overall performance of the HSRO membrane and demonstrate the data to support the need for pre-conditioning of HSRO elements. Our preliminary data suggests that there can be up to 35 % reduction in flow due to initial heat treatment, which also positively affects the increase in salt rejection. The paper will go into detail about the fundamental understanding of the performance change of HSRO after the pre-conditioning step and its effect on the quality of medical water produced. The paper will also discuss another critical point, “regular hot water sanitization” of these HSRO membranes. Regular hot water sanitization (at 80°C-85°C) is necessary to keep the membrane bioburden free; however, it can negatively impact the performance of the membrane over time. We will demonstrate several data points on hot water sanitization using FilmTec HSRO elements and challenge its robustness to produce quality medical water. The last part of this paper will discuss the construction details of the FilmTec HSRO membrane and features that make it suitable to pre-condition and sanitize at high temperatures.

Keywords: heat sanitizable reverse osmosis, HSRO, medical water, hemodialysis water, water for Injection, pre-conditioning, heat sanitization

Procedia PDF Downloads 204
3809 Diagonal Vector Autoregressive Models and Their Properties

Authors: Usoro Anthony E., Udoh Emediong

Abstract:

Diagonal Vector Autoregressive Models are special classes of the general vector autoregressive models identified under certain conditions, where parameters are restricted to the diagonal elements in the coefficient matrices. Variance, autocovariance, and autocorrelation properties of the upper and lower diagonal VAR models are derived. The new set of VAR models is verified with empirical data and is found to perform favourably with the general VAR models. The advantage of the diagonal models over the existing models is that the new models are parsimonious, given the reduction in the interactive coefficients of the general VAR models.

Keywords: VAR models, diagonal VAR models, variance, autocovariance, autocorrelations

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3808 A Study on Thermal and Flow Characteristics by Solar Radiation for Single-Span Greenhouse by Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation

Authors: Jonghyuk Yoon, Hyoungwoon Song

Abstract:

Recently, there are lots of increasing interest in a smart farming that represents application of modern Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) into agriculture since it provides a methodology to optimize production efficiencies by managing growing conditions of crops automatically. In order to obtain high performance and stability for smart greenhouse, it is important to identify the effect of various working parameters such as capacity of ventilation fan, vent opening area and etc. In the present study, a 3-dimensional CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) simulation for single-span greenhouse was conducted using the commercial program, Ansys CFX 18.0. The numerical simulation for single-span greenhouse was implemented to figure out the internal thermal and flow characteristics. In order to numerically model solar radiation that spread over a wide range of wavelengths, the multiband model that discretizes the spectrum into finite bands of wavelength based on Wien’s law is applied to the simulation. In addition, absorption coefficient of vinyl varied with the wavelength bands is also applied based on Beer-Lambert Law. To validate the numerical method applied herein, the numerical results of the temperature at specific monitoring points were compared with the experimental data. The average error rates (12.2~14.2%) between them was shown and numerical results of temperature distribution are in good agreement with the experimental data. The results of the present study can be useful information for the design of various greenhouses. This work was supported by Korea Institute of Planning and Evaluation for Technology in Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (IPET) through Advanced Production Technology Development Program, funded by Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA)(315093-03).

Keywords: single-span greenhouse, CFD (computational fluid dynamics), solar radiation, multiband model, absorption coefficient

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3807 Adsorption of NO and NH3 in MFI and H-ZSM5: Monte Carlo Simulation

Authors: Z. Jamalzadeh, A. Niaei, H. Erfannia

Abstract:

Due to developing industries, the emission of pollutants such as NOx, SOx, and CO2 are rapidly increased. Generally, NOx is attributed to the mono nitrogen oxides of NO and NO2 that is one of the most important atmospheric contaminants. Hence, controlling the emission of nitrogen oxides is environmentally urgent. Selective catalytic reduction of NOx is one of the most common techniques for NOx removal in which zeolites have wide application due to their high performance. In zeolitic processes, the catalytic reaction occurs mostly in the pores. Therefore, investigation of the adsorption phenomena of the molecules in order to gain an insight and understand the catalytic cycle is of important. Hence, in current study, benefiting from molecular simulations, the adsorption phenomena in the nanocatalysts of SCR of NOx process was investigated in order to get a good insight of the catalysts’ behavior. The effect of cation addition to the support in the catalysts’ behavior through adsorption step was explored by Mont Carlo (MC) using Materials Studio Package. Simulation time of 1 Ns accompanying 1 fs time step, COMPASS27 Force Field and the cut off radios of 12.5 Ȧ was applied for performed runs. It was observed that the adsorption capacity increases in the presence of cations. The sorption isotherms demonstrated the behavior of type I isotherm categories and sorption capacity diminished with increase in temperature whereas an increase was observed at high pressures. Besides, NO sorption showed higher sorption capacity than NH3 in H–ZSM5. In this respect, the energy distributions signified that the molecules could adsorb in just one sorption site at the catalyst and the sorption energy of NO was stronger than the NH3 in H-ZSM5. Furthermore, the isosteric heat of sorption data showed nearly same values for the molecules; however, it indicated stronger interactions of NO molecules with H-ZSM5 zeolite compared to the isosteric heat of NH3 which was low in value.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, adsorption, NOx, ZSM5

Procedia PDF Downloads 354
3806 Solar Collectors for Northern Countries

Authors: Ilze Pelece, Imants Ziemelis, Henriks Putans

Abstract:

Traditionally the solar energy has been used in southern countries, but it has been used also in northern ones. Most popular kind of use of solar energy in Latvia is solar collector for water heating. Traditionally flat-plate solar collectors are used because of simplicity of manufacturing. However, some peculiarities in use of solar energy in northern countries must be taken into account. In northern countries, there is lower irradiance, but longer day and longer path of the sun during summer. Therefore traditional flat-plate solar collectors are not appropriate enough in northern countries, but new forms must be developed. There are two forms of solar collectors - cylindrical and semi-spherical – proposed in this work. Such collectors can be made both for water or air heating. Theoretical calculations and measurements of energy gain from those two collectors have been done. Results show that daily energy sum received by the semi-spherical collector from the sun at the middle of summer is 1.43 times more than that of the flat one, but for the cylindrical collector, it is 1.74 times more than that of the flat one or equal to that of the tracking to sun flat-plate collector. The resulting difference in energy gain from collector will be not so large because of the difference in heat loses. Heat can be decreased by switching off the water circulation pump when the sun is covered by clouds. For this purpose solar batteries, powered pump can be used instead of complicated and expensive automatics. Even more important than overall energy gain is the fact that semi-spherical and cylindrical collectors work all day (17 hours in the middle of summer at 57 northern latitudes), while flat-plate collector only about 11 hours. Yearly energy sum received by the collector from the sun is 1.5 and 1.9 times larger for the semi-spherical and cylindrical collector respectively as for the flat one. The cylindrical solar collector is easier to manufacture, but semi-spherical one is more aesthetical and durable against the impact of the wind. Although solar collectors for water and air heating are studied in this article, main ideas are applicable also for solar batteries.

Keywords: cylindric, semi-spherical, solar collector, solar energy, water heating

Procedia PDF Downloads 256
3805 Preparation and Characterization of PVA Pure and PVA/MMT Matrix: Effect of Thermal Treatment

Authors: Albana Hasimi, Edlira Tako, Elvin Çomo, Partizan Malkaj, Blerina Papajani, Ledjan Malaj, Mirela Ndrita

Abstract:

Many endeavors have been exerted during the last years for developing new artificial polymeric membranes which fulfill the demanded conditions for biomedical uses. One of the most tested polymers is Poly(vinyl alcohol) [PVA]. Ours groups, is based on the possibility of using PVA for personal protective equipment against covid. In them, we explore the possibility of modifying the properties of the polymer by adding Montmorillonite [MMT]. Heat-treatment above the glass transition temperature are used to improve mechanical properties mainly by increasing the crystallinity of the polymer, which acts as a physical network. Temperature-Modulated Differential Scanning Calorimetry (TMDSC) measurements indicated that the presence of 0.5% MMT in PVA causes a higher Tg value and shaped peak of crystallinity. Decomposition is observed at two of the melting points of the crystals during heating 25-240oC and overlap of the recrystallization ridges during cooling 240-25oC. This is indicative of the presence of two types (quality or structure ) of polymer crystals. On the other hand, some indication of improvement of the quality of the crystals by heat-treatment is given by the distinct non-reversing contribution to melting. Data on sorption and transport of water in polyvinyl alcohol films: PVA pure and PVA/MMT matrix, modified by thermal treatment, are presented. The thermal treatment has aftereffect the films become more rigid, and because of this, the water uptake is significantly lower in membranes. That is indicates by analysis of the resulting water uptake kinetics. The presence 0.5% w/w of MMT has no significant impact on the properties of PVA membranes. Water uptake kinetics deviates from Fick’s law due to slow relaxation of glassy polymer matrix for all membranes category.

Keywords: crystallinity, montmorillonite, nanocomposite, poly (vinyl alcohol)

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3804 Mechanical Behavior of 16NC6 Steel Hardened by Burnishing

Authors: Litim Tarek, Taamallah Ouahiba

Abstract:

This work relates to the physico-geometrical aspect of the surface layers of 16NC6 steel having undergone the burnishing treatment by hard steel ball. The results show that the optimal effects of burnishing are closely linked to the shape and the material of the active part of the device as well as to the surface plastic deformation ability of the material to be treated. Thus the roughness is improved by more than 70%, and the consolidation rate is increased by 30%. In addition, modeling of the rational traction curves provides a work hardening coefficient of up to 0.3 in the presence of burnishing.

Keywords: 16NC6 steel, burnishing, hardening, roughness

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3803 Administrators' Information Management Capacity and Decision-Making Effectiveness on Staff Promotion in the Teaching Service Commissions in South – West, Nigeria

Authors: Olatunji Sabitu Alimi

Abstract:

This study investigated the extent to which administrators’ information storage, retrieval and processing capacities influence decisions on staff promotion in the Teaching Service Commissions (TESCOMs) in The South-West, Nigeria. One research question and two research hypotheses were formulated and tested respectively at 0.05 level of significance. The study used the descriptive research of the survey type. One hundred (100) staff on salary grade level 09 constituted the sample. Multi- stage, stratified and simple random sampling techniques were used to select 100 staff from the TESCOMs in The South-West, Nigeria. Two questionnaires titled Administrators’ Information Storage, Retrieval and Processing Capacities (AISRPC), and Staff Promotion Effectiveness (SPE) were used for data collection. The inventory was validated and subjected to test-re-test and reliability coefficient of r = 0.79 was obtained. The data were collected and analyzed using Pearson Product Moment Correlation coefficient and simple percentage. The study found that Administrators at TESCOM stored their information in files, hard copies, soft copies, open registry and departmentally in varying degrees while they also processed information manually and through electronics for decision making. In addition, there is a significant relationship between administrators’ information storage and retrieval capacities in the TESCOMs in South – West, Nigeria, (r cal = 0.598 > r table = 0.195). Furthermore, administrators’ information processing capacity and staff promotion effectiveness were found to be significantly related (r cal = 0.209 > r table = 0.195 at 0.05 level of significance). The study recommended that training, seminars, workshops should be organized for administrators on information management, while educational organizations should provide Information Management Technology (ICT) equipment for the administrators in the TESCOMs. The staff of TESCOM should be promoted having satisfied the promotion criteria such as spending required number of years on a grade level, a clean record of service and vacancy.

Keywords: information processing capacity, staff promotion effectiveness, teaching service commission, Nigeria

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3802 Dielectric Properties of NdTi₍₀.₅₋ₓ₎GeₓMo₀.₅O₄ Ceramics at Microwave Frequency

Authors: Yih-Chien Chen, Tse-Lung Lin

Abstract:

The microwave characteristics of NdTi₍₀.₅₋ₓ₎GeₓMo₀.₅O₄ are studied to determine the feasibility of their use in the liquid sensor. The microwave characteristics of NdTi₍₀.₅₋ₓ₎GeₓMo₀.₅O₄ are determined using X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns. The permittivity (𝜀r) of NdTi₍₀.₄₉₎Ge₀.₀₁Mo₀.₅O₄ that is sintered at 1425 ℃ for 4 h is 17.6, the unloaded quality factor (Qu×f) is 33,400 GHz, and it has a temperature coefficient at the resonance frequency (TCF) of -30.7 ppm/℃. The proposed liquid sensor is at the 5G FR1 bands.

Keywords: NdTi₍₀.₅₋ₓ₎GeₓMo₀.₅O₄, X-ray diffraction pattern, permittivity, Unloaded quality factor

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3801 Safety Testing of Commercial Lithium-Ion Batteries and Failure Modes Analysis

Authors: Romeo Malik, Yashraj Tripathy, Anup Barai

Abstract:

Transportation safety is a major concern for vehicle electrification on a large-scale. The failure cost of lithium-ion batteries is substantial and is significantly impacted by higher liability and replacement cost. With continuous advancement on the material front in terms of higher energy density, upgrading safety characteristics are becoming more crucial for broader integration of lithium-ion batteries. Understanding and impeding thermal runaway is the prime issue for battery safety researchers. In this study, a comprehensive comparison of thermal runaway mechanisms for two different cathode types, Li(Ni₀.₃Co₀.₃Mn₀.₃)O₂ and Li(Ni₀.₈Co₀.₁₅Al₀.₀₅)O₂ is explored. Both the chemistries were studied for different states of charge, and the various abuse scenarios that lead to thermal runaway is investigated. Abuse tests include mechanical abuse, electrical abuse, and thermal abuse. Batteries undergo thermal runaway due to a series of combustible reactions taking place internally; this is observed as multiple jets of flame reaching temperatures of the order of 1000ºC. The physicochemical characterisation was performed on cells, prior to and after abuse. Battery’s state of charge and chemistry have a significant effect on the flame temperature profiles which is otherwise quantified as heat released. Majority of the failures during transportation is due to these external short circuit. Finally, a mitigation approach is proposed to impede the thermal runaway hazard. Transporting lithium-ion batteries under low states of charge is proposed as a way forward. Batteries at low states of charge have demonstrated minimal heat release under thermal runaway reducing the risk of secondary hazards such as thermal runaway propagation.

Keywords: battery reliability, lithium-ion batteries, thermal runaway characterisation, tomography

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3800 Efficiency of Secondary Schools by ICT Intervention in Sylhet Division of Bangladesh

Authors: Azizul Baten, Kamrul Hossain, Abdullah-Al-Zabir

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to develop an appropriate stochastic frontier secondary schools efficiency model by ICT Intervention and to examine the impact of ICT challenges on secondary schools efficiency in the Sylhet division in Bangladesh using stochastic frontier analysis. The Translog stochastic frontier model was found an appropriate than the Cobb-Douglas model in secondary schools efficiency by ICT Intervention. Based on the results of the Cobb-Douglas model, it is found that the coefficient of the number of teachers, the number of students, and teaching ability had a positive effect on increasing the level of efficiency. It indicated that these are related to technical efficiency. In the case of inefficiency effects for both Cobb-Douglas and Translog models, the coefficient of the ICT lab decreased secondary school inefficiency, but the online class in school was found to increase the level of inefficiency. The coefficients of teacher’s preference for ICT tools like multimedia projectors played a contributor role in decreasing the secondary school inefficiency in the Sylhet division of Bangladesh. The interaction effects of the number of teachers and the classrooms, and the number of students and the number of classrooms, the number of students and teaching ability, and the classrooms and teaching ability of the teachers were recorded with the positive values and these have a positive impact on increasing the secondary school efficiency. The overall mean efficiency of urban secondary schools was found at 84.66% for the Translog model, while it was 83.63% for the Cobb-Douglas model. The overall mean efficiency of rural secondary schools was found at 80.98% for the Translog model, while it was 81.24% for the Cobb-Douglas model. So, the urban secondary schools performed better than the rural secondary schools in the Sylhet division. It is observed from the results of the Tobit model that the teacher-student ratio had a positive influence on secondary school efficiency. The teaching experiences of those who have 1 to 5 years and 10 years above, MPO type school, conventional teaching method have had a negative and significant influence on secondary school efficiency. The estimated value of σ-square (0.0625) was different from Zero, indicating a good fit. The value of γ (0.9872) was recorded as positive and it can be interpreted as follows: 98.72 percent of random variation around in secondary school outcomes due to inefficiency.

Keywords: efficiency, secondary schools, ICT, stochastic frontier analysis

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3799 Application of RayMan Model in Quantifying the Impacts of the Built Environment and Surface Properties on Surrounding Temperature

Authors: Maryam Karimi, Rouzbeh Nazari

Abstract:

Introduction: Understanding thermal distribution in the micro-urban climate has now been necessary for urban planners or designers due to the impact of complex micro-scale features of Urban Heat Island (UHI) on the built environment and public health. Hence, understanding the interrelation between urban components and thermal pattern can assist planners in the proper addition of vegetation to build-environment, which can minimize the UHI impact. To characterize the need for urban green infrastructure (UGI) through better urban planning, this study proposes the use of RayMan model to measure the impact of air quality and increased temperature based on urban morphology in the selected metropolitan cities. This project will measure the impact of build environment for urban and regional planning using human biometeorological evaluations (Tmrt). Methods: We utilized the RayMan model to estimate the Tmrt in an urban environment incorporating location and height of buildings and trees as a supplemental tool in urban planning and street design. The estimated Tmrt value will be compared with existing surface and air temperature data to find the actual temperature felt by pedestrians. Results: Our current results suggest a strong relationship between sky-view factor (SVF) and increased surface temperature in megacities based on current urban morphology. Conclusion: This study will help with Quantifying the impacts of the built environment and surface properties on surrounding temperature, identifying priority urban neighborhoods by analyzing Tmrt and air quality data at the pedestrian level, and characterizing the need for urban green infrastructure cooling potential.

Keywords: built environment, urban planning, urban cooling, extreme heat

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
3798 Central African Republic Government Recruitment Agency Based on Identity Management and Public Key Encryption

Authors: Koyangbo Guere Monguia Michel Alex Emmanuel

Abstract:

In e-government and especially recruitment, many researches have been conducted to build a trustworthy and reliable online or application system capable to process users or job applicant files. In this research (Government Recruitment Agency), cloud computing, identity management and public key encryption have been used to management domains, access control authorization mechanism and to secure data exchange between entities for reliable procedure of processing files.

Keywords: cloud computing network, identity management systems, public key encryption, access control and authorization

Procedia PDF Downloads 352
3797 Numerical and Experimental Comparison of Surface Pressures around a Scaled Ship Wind-Assisted Propulsion System

Authors: James Cairns, Marco Vezza, Richard Green, Donald MacVicar

Abstract:

Significant legislative changes are set to revolutionise the commercial shipping industry. Upcoming emissions restrictions will force operators to look at technologies that can improve the efficiency of their vessels -reducing fuel consumption and emissions. A device which may help in this challenge is the Ship Wind-Assisted Propulsion system (SWAP), an actively controlled aerofoil mounted vertically on the deck of a ship. The device functions in a similar manner to a sail on a yacht, whereby the aerodynamic forces generated by the sail reach an equilibrium with the hydrodynamic forces on the hull and a forward velocity results. Numerical and experimental testing of the SWAP device is presented in this study. Circulation control takes the form of a co-flow jet aerofoil, utilising both blowing from the leading edge and suction from the trailing edge. A jet at the leading edge uses the Coanda effect to energise the boundary layer in order to delay flow separation and create high lift with low drag. The SWAP concept has been originated by the research and development team at SMAR Azure Ltd. The device will be retrofitted to existing ships so that a component of the aerodynamic forces acts forward and partially reduces the reliance on existing propulsion systems. Wind tunnel tests have been carried out at the de Havilland wind tunnel at the University of Glasgow on a 1:20 scale model of this system. The tests aim to understand the airflow characteristics around the aerofoil and investigate the approximate lift and drag coefficients that an early iteration of the SWAP device may produce. The data exhibits clear trends of increasing lift as injection momentum increases, with critical flow attachment points being identified at specific combinations of jet momentum coefficient, Cµ, and angle of attack, AOA. Various combinations of flow conditions were tested, with the jet momentum coefficient ranging from 0 to 0.7 and the AOA ranging from 0° to 35°. The Reynolds number across the tested conditions ranged from 80,000 to 240,000. Comparisons between 2D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and the experimental data are presented for multiple Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models in the form of normalised surface pressure comparisons. These show good agreement for most of the tested cases. However, certain simulation conditions exhibited a well-documented shortcoming of RANS-based turbulence models for circulation control flows and over-predicted surface pressures and lift coefficient for fully attached flow cases. Work must be continued in finding an all-encompassing modelling approach which predicts surface pressures well for all combinations of jet injection momentum and AOA.

Keywords: CFD, circulation control, Coanda, turbo wing sail, wind tunnel

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3796 A Review of Existing Turnover Intention Theories

Authors: Pauline E. Ngo-Henha

Abstract:

Existing turnover intention theories are reviewed in this paper. This review was conducted with the help of the search keyword “turnover intention theories” in Google Scholar during the month of July 2017. These theories include: The Theory of Organizational Equilibrium (TOE), Social Exchange Theory, Job Embeddedness Theory, Herzberg’s Two-Factor Theory, the Resource-Based View, Equity Theory, Human Capital Theory, and the Expectancy Theory. One of the limitations of this review paper is that data were only collected from Google Scholar where many papers were sometimes not freely accessible. However, this paper attempts to contribute to the research in clarifying the distinction between theories and models in the context of turnover intention.

Keywords: Literature Review, Theory, Turnover, Turnover intention

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3795 Comparative Study of Radiation Protection in a Hospital Environment

Authors: Lahoucine Zaama, Sanae Douama

Abstract:

In this work, we present the results of a dosimetry study in a Moroccan radiology department . The results are compared with those of a similar study in France. Furthermore, it determines the coefficient of transmission of the lead sheets of different thicknesses depending on the voltage (KV) in a direct exposure. The objective of this study is to choose the thickness of the radiation means to determine the leaf sample sealed with the smallest percentage value radiation transmission, and that in the context of optimization. Thus the comparison among the studies is essential to consider conduct studies and research in this framework to achieve the goal of optimization.

Keywords: radiology, dosimetry, radiation, dose, transmission

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3794 Numerical and Experimental Investigation of Air Distribution System of Larder Type Refrigerator

Authors: Funda Erdem Şahnali, Ş. Özgür Atayılmaz, Tolga N. Aynur

Abstract:

Almost all of the domestic refrigerators operate on the principle of the vapor compression refrigeration cycle and removal of heat from the refrigerator cabinets is done via one of the two methods: natural convection or forced convection. In this study, airflow and temperature distributions inside a 375L no-frost type larder cabinet, in which cooling is provided by forced convection, are evaluated both experimentally and numerically. Airflow rate, compressor capacity and temperature distribution in the cooling chamber are known to be some of the most important factors that affect the cooling performance and energy consumption of a refrigerator. The objective of this study is to evaluate the original temperature distribution in the larder cabinet, and investigate for better temperature distribution solutions throughout the refrigerator domain via system optimizations that could provide uniform temperature distribution. The flow visualization and airflow velocity measurements inside the original refrigerator are performed via Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry (SPIV). In addition, airflow and temperature distributions are investigated numerically with Ansys Fluent. In order to study the heat transfer inside the aforementioned refrigerator, forced convection theories covering the following cases are applied: closed rectangular cavity representing heat transfer inside the refrigerating compartment. The cavity volume has been represented with finite volume elements and is solved computationally with appropriate momentum and energy equations (Navier-Stokes equations). The 3D model is analyzed as transient, with k-ε turbulence model and SIMPLE pressure-velocity coupling for turbulent flow situation. The results obtained with the 3D numerical simulations are in quite good agreement with the experimental airflow measurements using the SPIV technique. After Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the baseline case, the effects of three parameters: compressor capacity, fan rotational speed and type of shelf (glass or wire) are studied on the energy consumption; pull down time, temperature distributions in the cabinet. For each case, energy consumption based on experimental results is calculated. After the analysis, the main effective parameters for temperature distribution inside a cabin and energy consumption based on CFD simulation are determined and simulation results are supplied for Design of Experiments (DOE) as input data for optimization. The best configuration with minimum energy consumption that provides minimum temperature difference between the shelves inside the cabinet is determined.

Keywords: air distribution, CFD, DOE, energy consumption, experimental, larder cabinet, refrigeration, uniform temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 103
3793 A Decadal Flood Assessment Using Time-Series Satellite Data in Cambodia

Authors: Nguyen-Thanh Son

Abstract:

Flood is among the most frequent and costliest natural hazards. The flood disasters especially affect the poor people in rural areas, who are heavily dependent on agriculture and have lower incomes. Cambodia is identified as one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, ranked 13th out of 181 countries most affected by the impacts of climate change. Flood monitoring is thus a strategic priority at national and regional levels because policymakers need reliable spatial and temporal information on flood-prone areas to form successful monitoring programs to reduce possible impacts on the country’s economy and people’s likelihood. This study aims to develop methods for flood mapping and assessment from MODIS data in Cambodia. We processed the data for the period from 2000 to 2017, following three main steps: (1) data pre-processing to construct smooth time-series vegetation and water surface indices, (2) delineation of flood-prone areas, and (3) accuracy assessment. The results of flood mapping were verified with the ground reference data, indicating the overall accuracy of 88.7% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.77, respectively. These results were reaffirmed by close agreement between the flood-mapping area and ground reference data, with the correlation coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.94. The seasonally flooded areas observed for 2010, 2015, and 2016 were remarkably smaller than other years, mainly attributed to the El Niño weather phenomenon exacerbated by impacts of climate change. Eventually, although several sources potentially lowered the mapping accuracy of flood-prone areas, including image cloud contamination, mixed-pixel issues, and low-resolution bias between the mapping results and ground reference data, our methods indicated the satisfactory results for delineating spatiotemporal evolutions of floods. The results in the form of quantitative information on spatiotemporal flood distributions could be beneficial to policymakers in evaluating their management strategies for mitigating the negative effects of floods on agriculture and people’s likelihood in the country.

Keywords: MODIS, flood, mapping, Cambodia

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3792 Application of Benford's Law in Analysis of Frankfurt Stock Exchange Index (DAX) Percentage Changes

Authors: Mario Zgela

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Application of Benford’s Law is very rarely covered in the field of stock market analysis, especially in percentage change of stock market indices. Deutscher Aktien IndeX (DAX) is very important stock market index of Frankfurt Deutsche Börse which serves as underlying basis for large number of financial instruments. It is calculated for selected 30 German blue chips stocks. In this paper, Benford's Law first digit test is applied on 10 year DAX daily percentage changes in order to check compliance. Deviations of 10 year DAX percentage changes set as well as distortions of certain subsets from Benford's Law distribution are detected. It is possible that deviations are the outcome of speculations; and psychological influence should not be eliminated.

Keywords: Benford's Law, DAX, index percentage changes, stock market

Procedia PDF Downloads 286
3791 Inverse Prediction of Thermal Parameters of an Annular Hyperbolic Fin Subjected to Thermal Stresses

Authors: Ashis Mallick, Rajeev Ranjan

Abstract:

The closed form solution for thermal stresses in an annular fin with hyperbolic profile is derived using Adomian decomposition method (ADM). The conductive-convective fin with variable thermal conductivity is considered in the analysis. The nonlinear heat transfer equation is efficiently solved by ADM considering insulated convective boundary conditions at the tip of fin. The constant of integration in the solution is to be estimated using minimum decomposition error method. The solution of temperature field is represented in a polynomial form for convenience to use in thermo-elasticity equation. The non-dimensional thermal stress fields are obtained using the ADM solution of temperature field coupled with the thermo-elasticity solution. The influence of the various thermal parameters in temperature field and stress fields are presented. In order to show the accuracy of the ADM solution, the present results are compared with the results available in literature. The stress fields in fin with hyperbolic profile are compared with those of uniform thickness profile. Result shows that hyperbolic fin profile is better choice for enhancing heat transfer. Moreover, less thermal stresses are developed in hyperbolic profile as compared to rectangular profile. Next, Nelder-Mead based simplex search method is employed for the inverse estimation of unknown non-dimensional thermal parameters in a given stress fields. Owing to the correlated nature of the unknowns, the best combinations of the model parameters which are satisfying the predefined stress field are to be estimated. The stress fields calculated using the inverse parameters give a very good agreement with the stress fields obtained from the forward solution. The estimated parameters are suitable to use for efficient and cost effective fin designing.

Keywords: Adomian decomposition, inverse analysis, hyperbolic fin, variable thermal conductivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 323
3790 Effect of Pregnancy Intention, Postnatal Depressive Symptoms and Social Support on Early Childhood Stunting: Findings from India

Authors: Swati Srivastava, Ashish Kumar Upadhyay

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Background: According to United Nation Children’s Fund, it has been estimated that worldwide about 165 million children were stunted in 2012 and India alone accounts for 38% of global burden of stunting. In terms of incidence, India is home of more than 60 million stunted children worldwide. Our study aims to examine the effect of pregnancy intention and maternal postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting in India. We hypothesized that effect of pregnancy intention and postnatal maternal depressive symptoms were mediated by social support. Methods: We used data from first wave of Young Lives Study India. Out of 2011 children recruited in original cohort, 1833 children had complete information on pregnancy intention, maternal depression and other variables. A series of multivariate logistic regression model were used to examine the effect of pregnancy intention and postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting. Results: Bivariate result indicates that a higher percent of children born after unintended pregnancy (40%) were stunted than children of intended pregnancy (26%). Likewise, proportion of stunted children was also higher among women of high postnatal depressive symptoms (35%) than low level of depression (24%). Results of multivariate logistic regression model indicate that children born after unintended pregnancy were significantly more likely to be stunted than children born after intended pregnancy (Coefficient: 1.70, CI: 1.17, 2.48). Likewise, early childhood stunting was also associated with maternal postnatal depressive symptoms among women (Coefficient: 1.48, CI: 1.16, 1.88). The effect of pregnancy intention and postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting remains unchanged after controlling for social support and other variables. Conclusions: The findings of this study provide conclusive evidence regarding consequences of pregnancy intention and postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting in India. Therefore, there is need to identify the women with unintended pregnancy and incorporate the promotion of mental health into their national reproductive and child health programme.

Keywords: pregnancy intention, postnatal depressive symptoms, social support, childhood stunting, young lives study, India

Procedia PDF Downloads 293
3789 Cross-Sectoral Energy Demand Prediction for Germany with a 100% Renewable Energy Production in 2050

Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
3788 Wetting Characterization of High Aspect Ratio Nanostructures by Gigahertz Acoustic Reflectometry

Authors: C. Virgilio, J. Carlier, P. Campistron, M. Toubal, P. Garnier, L. Broussous, V. Thomy, B. Nongaillard

Abstract:

Wetting efficiency of microstructures or nanostructures patterned on Si wafers is a real challenge in integrated circuits manufacturing. In fact, bad or non-uniform wetting during wet processes limits chemical reactions and can lead to non-complete etching or cleaning inside the patterns and device defectivity. This issue is more and more important with the transistors size shrinkage and concerns mainly high aspect ratio structures. Deep Trench Isolation (DTI) structures enabling pixels’ isolation in imaging devices are subject to this phenomenon. While low-frequency acoustic reflectometry principle is a well-known method for Non Destructive Test applications, we have recently shown that it is also well suited for nanostructures wetting characterization in a higher frequency range. In this paper, we present a high-frequency acoustic reflectometry characterization of DTI wetting through a confrontation of both experimental and modeling results. The acoustic method proposed is based on the evaluation of the reflection of a longitudinal acoustic wave generated by a 100 µm diameter ZnO piezoelectric transducer sputtered on the silicon wafer backside using MEMS technologies. The transducers have been fabricated to work at 5 GHz corresponding to a wavelength of 1.7 µm in silicon. The DTI studied structures, manufactured on the wafer frontside, are crossing trenches of 200 nm wide and 4 µm deep (aspect ratio of 20) etched into a Si wafer frontside. In that case, the acoustic signal reflection occurs at the bottom and at the top of the DTI enabling its characterization by monitoring the electrical reflection coefficient of the transducer. A Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) model has been developed to predict the behavior of the emitted wave. The model shows that the separation of the reflected echoes (top and bottom of the DTI) from different acoustic modes is possible at 5 Ghz. A good correspondence between experimental and theoretical signals is observed. The model enables the identification of the different acoustic modes. The evaluation of DTI wetting is then performed by focusing on the first reflected echo obtained through the reflection at Si bottom interface, where wetting efficiency is crucial. The reflection coefficient is measured with different water / ethanol mixtures (tunable surface tension) deposited on the wafer frontside. Two cases are studied: with and without PFTS hydrophobic treatment. In the untreated surface case, acoustic reflection coefficient values with water show that liquid imbibition is partial. In the treated surface case, the acoustic reflection is total with water (no liquid in DTI). The impalement of the liquid occurs for a specific surface tension but it is still partial for pure ethanol. DTI bottom shape and local pattern collapse of the trenches can explain these incomplete wetting phenomena. This high-frequency acoustic method sensitivity coupled with a FDTD propagative model thus enables the local determination of the wetting state of a liquid on real structures. Partial wetting states for non-hydrophobic surfaces or low surface tension liquids are then detectable with this method.

Keywords: wetting, acoustic reflectometry, gigahertz, semiconductor

Procedia PDF Downloads 325
3787 Dependence of the Photoelectric Exponent on the Source Spectrum of the CT

Authors: Rezvan Ravanfar Haghighi, V. C. Vani, Suresh Perumal, Sabyasachi Chatterjee, Pratik Kumar

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X-ray attenuation coefficient [µ(E)] of any substance, for energy (E), is a sum of the contributions from the Compton scattering [ μCom(E)] and photoelectric effect [µPh(E)]. In terms of the, electron density (ρe) and the effective atomic number (Zeff) we have µCom(E) is proportional to [(ρe)fKN(E)] while µPh(E) is proportional to [(ρeZeffx)/Ey] with fKN(E) being the Klein-Nishina formula, with x and y being the exponents for photoelectric effect. By taking the sample's HU at two different excitation voltages (V=V1, V2) of the CT machine, we can solve for X=ρe, Y=ρeZeffx from these two independent equations, as is attempted in DECT inversion. Since µCom(E) and µPh(E) are both energy dependent, the coefficients of inversion are also dependent on (a) the source spectrum S(E,V) and (b) the detector efficiency D(E) of the CT machine. In the present paper we tabulate these coefficients of inversion for different practical manifestations of S(E,V) and D(E). The HU(V) values from the CT follow: <µ(V)>=<µw(V)>[1+HU(V)/1000] where the subscript 'w' refers to water and the averaging process <….> accounts for the source spectrum S(E,V) and the detector efficiency D(E). Linearity of μ(E) with respect to X and Y implies that (a) <µ(V)> is a linear combination of X and Y and (b) for inversion, X and Y can be written as linear combinations of two independent observations <µ(V1)>, <µ(V2)> with V1≠V2. These coefficients of inversion would naturally depend upon S(E, V) and D(E). We numerically investigate this dependence for some practical cases, by taking V = 100 , 140 kVp, as are used for cardiological investigations. The S(E,V) are generated by using the Boone-Seibert source spectrum, being superposed on aluminium filters of different thickness lAl with 7mm≤lAl≤12mm and the D(E) is considered to be that of a typical Si[Li] solid state and GdOS scintilator detector. In the values of X and Y, found by using the calculated inversion coefficients, errors are below 2% for data with solutions of glycerol, sucrose and glucose. For low Zeff materials like propionic acid, Zeffx is overestimated by 20% with X being within1%. For high Zeffx materials like KOH the value of Zeffx is underestimated by 22% while the error in X is + 15%. These imply that the source may have additional filtering than the aluminium filter specified by the manufacturer. Also it is found that the difference in the values of the inversion coefficients for the two types of detectors is negligible. The type of the detector does not affect on the DECT inversion algorithm to find the unknown chemical characteristic of the scanned materials. The effect of the source should be considered as an important factor to calculate the coefficients of inversion.

Keywords: attenuation coefficient, computed tomography, photoelectric effect, source spectrum

Procedia PDF Downloads 394
3786 Corporate Governance and Bank Performance: A Study of Selected Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria

Authors: Ayodele Ajayi, John Ajayi

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This paper investigates the effect of corporate governance with a view to determining the relationship between board size and bank performance. Data for the study were obtained from the audited financial statements of five sampled banks listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Panel data technique was adopted and analysis was carried out with the use of multiple regression and pooled ordinary least square. Results from the study show that the larger the board size, the greater the profit implying that corporate governance is positively correlated with bank performance.

Keywords: corporate governance, banks performance, board size, pooled data

Procedia PDF Downloads 354
3785 The Effect of Wet Cooling Pad Thickness and Geometric Configuration to Enhance Evaporative Cooler Saturation Efficiency: A Review

Authors: Biruk Abate

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Evaporative cooling occurs when air with high temperature and reduced humidity passes over a wet porous surface and a higher degree of cooling process is achieved for storage of fruits and vegetables due to greater rate of evaporation. The main objective of this reviewed study is to understand the effect of evaporative surface pad thickness and geometric configuration on the saturation efficiency of evaporative cooler and to state some related factors affecting the performance of the system. From this overview, selection of pad thickness and geometrical shape with suitable characteristics of heat and mass transfer and water holding capacity of the pads was reviewed as these parameters are important for saturation efficiency of evaporative cooling. Increasing the cooling pad thickness through increasing the face velocity increases the effectiveness of wet-bulb saturation. Increasing ambient temperature, inlet air speed and ambient air humidity decreases the wet bulb effectiveness and it increases with increasing length of the pad. Increasing the ambient temperature and inlet air velocity decreases the humidity ratio, but increases with increasing ambient air humidity and lengths of the pad. Increasing the temperature-humidity index is possible with increasing ambient temperature, inlet air velocity, ambient air humidity and pad length. Generally, all materials having a higher wetted surface area per unit volume give higher efficiency. Materials with higher thickness increase the wetted surface area for better mix-up of air and water to give higher efficiency for the same shape and this in turn helps to store fruits and vegetables.

Keywords: Degree of cooling, heat and mass transfer, evaporative cooling, porous surface

Procedia PDF Downloads 125
3784 Vibration and Freeze-Thaw Cycling Tests on Fuel Cells for Automotive Applications

Authors: Gema M. Rodado, Jose M. Olavarrieta

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Hydrogen fuel cell technologies have experienced a great boost in the last decades, significantly increasing the production of these devices for both stationary and portable (mainly automotive) applications; these are influenced by two main factors: environmental pollution and energy shortage. A fuel cell is an electrochemical device that converts chemical energy directly into electricity by using hydrogen and oxygen gases as reactive components and obtaining water and heat as byproducts of the chemical reaction. Fuel cells, specifically those of Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) technology, are considered an alternative to internal combustion engines, mainly because of the low emissions they produce (almost zero), high efficiency and low operating temperatures (< 373 K). The introduction and use of fuel cells in the automotive market requires the development of standardized and validated procedures to test and evaluate their performance in different environmental conditions including vibrations and freeze-thaw cycles. These situations of vibration and extremely low/high temperatures can affect the physical integrity or even the excellent operation or performance of the fuel cell stack placed in a vehicle in circulation or in different climatic conditions. The main objective of this work is the development and validation of vibration and freeze-thaw cycling test procedures for fuel cell stacks that can be used in a vehicle in order to consolidate their safety, performance, and durability. In this context, different experimental tests were carried out at the facilities of the National Hydrogen Centre (CNH2). The experimental equipment used was: A vibration platform (shaker) for vibration test analysis on fuel cells in three axes directions with different vibration profiles. A walk-in climatic chamber to test the starting, operating, and stopping behavior of fuel cells under defined extreme conditions. A test station designed and developed by the CNH2 to test and characterize PEM fuel cell stacks up to 10 kWe. A 5 kWe PEM fuel cell stack in off-operation mode was used to carry out two independent experimental procedures. On the one hand, the fuel cell was subjected to a sinusoidal vibration test on the shaker in the three axes directions. It was defined by acceleration and amplitudes in the frequency range of 7 to 200 Hz for a total of three hours in each direction. On the other hand, the climatic chamber was used to simulate freeze-thaw cycles by defining a temperature range between +313 K and -243 K with an average relative humidity of 50% and a recommended ramp up and rump down of 1 K/min. The polarization curve and gas leakage rate were determined before and after the vibration and freeze-thaw tests at the fuel cell stack test station to evaluate the robustness of the stack. The results were very similar, which indicates that the tests did not affect the fuel cell stack structure and performance. The proposed procedures were verified and can be used as an initial point to perform other tests with different fuel cells.

Keywords: climatic chamber, freeze-thaw cycles, PEM fuel cell, shaker, vibration tests

Procedia PDF Downloads 111
3783 Modelling Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility with Markov-Switching Regression, Single Regime GARCH and Markov-Switching GARCH Models: Empirical Evidence from South Africa

Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 197