Search results for: regression hypothesis

Authors: I. D. Mngutyo, T. T. Gyuse, D. S. A. Alaci, J. Atser

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Streets are public spaces that are meaningful to all people because of lack of restriction on streets. Studies show that conditions, activities and people contribute to the success of public spaces. Also, self-organization potential in activity patterns offers a prospect for the revitalization of an urban area. This potential is mostly ignored hence many African streets appear disorganized giving African urban areas an unplanned look. Therefore, this study aims to analyze street utilization patterns and explore the relationship between the pattern of street use and condition of streets in Makurdi.These activity patterns form a data base for the revitalization of public space. Three major and minor arterials streets in nine out of the eleven wards that make up the built up part of Makurdi were purposively selected as units for measurement. A street activity audit was done on streets for activities that can be observed. For activities that cannot be easily observed 4 questionnaires were randomly administered on each of the three streets giving a total of 108 questionnaires. Multivariate statistical tools such as factor analysis and regression will be used to show emerging streets activity patterns and spatial variation among the nine wards.

Keywords: streets, utilization patterns, revitalization, urban design, urban, areas, developing countries

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Authors: Sepase K. Ivande

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Morality and frugality are two of the strongest motivations for pro-environmental behavior. However, formulating interventions based on these motivations requires knowledge of who is likely to be motivated by morality and who by frugality. This study investigated which personality traits make someone predisposed to morality motivation and which to frugality motivation for pro-environmental behavior. Results from a series of multiple regression analyses indicated that openness and agreeableness had a positive association with morality motivation, while conscientiousness had a positive association with frugality motivation. The link of agreeableness to morality motivation was stronger when the individuals were also higher on openness. Furthermore, a pair of Wilcoxon signed-rank tests revealed that individuals high on openness and agreeableness but low on conscientiousness scored higher on morality than frugality motivation. On the other hand, individuals low on openness and agreeableness but high on conscientiousness scored higher on frugality than morality motivation. The results of this study could inform the formulation of personalized interventions based on people’s personal predisposition to morality and frugality motivation for pro-environmental behavior, which could be more effective in getting them to be pro-environmental.

Keywords: agreeableness, conscientiousness, frugality, higher order motivations, morality, openness to experience, personality traits, pro-environmental behavior

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Authors: Jin-Ming Wu, Te-Wei Ho, Yu-Wen Tien

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Background: The aim of this population-based study was to determine the occurrence of diabetes and exocrine pancreatic insufficiencies (EPI) on non-diabetes subjects receiving distal pancreatectomy (DP). Method: A nationwide cohort study between 2000 and 2010 was collected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Among 3264 DP patients, we identified 1410 non-diabetes and 966 non-diabetes non-EPI. Results. Of 1410 non-diabetes DP subjects, 312 patients (22.1%) developed newly-diagnosed diabetes after PD. On a multiple logistic regression model, co-morbid hyperlipidemia (odds ratio, 1.640; 95% CI, 1.362–2.763; P < 0.001) and pancreatitis (odds ratio, 2.428; 95% CI, 1.889–3.121; P < 0.001) significantly contributed to higher incidences of diabetes after DP. Moreover, 380 subjects (39.3%) developed EPI, and pancreatic cancer is the statistically significant risk factor (odds ratio, 4.663; 95% CI, 2.108–6.085; P < 0.001). Conclusion: The patients with co-morbid hyperlipidemia and chronic pancreatitis had higher rates of newly-diagnosed diabetes after DP, moreover, pancreatic cancer subjects had higher rates of pancreatic exocrine insufficiency after DP. The clinicians should be alert to follow up glucose metabolism and clinical symptoms of fat intolerance for DP patients.

Keywords: distal pancreatectomy, National database, diabetes, exocrine insufficiency

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Authors: Sabrina Boutaleb, Kouider Halim Benrahou, François Schosseler, Abdelouahed Tounsi, El Abbas Adda Bedia

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The use of polyurethane in different areas becomes more frequent. This is due to significant advantages they have including their lightness and resistance. However, their use requires a mastery of their mechanical performance. We will present in this work, a COAPUR 6050 which can be used to develop composite materials. COAPUR 6050 is an associative polyurethane thickener allowing fine rheological adjustment of flat or semi-gloss paints. COAPUR 6050 is characterised by its thickening efficiency at low shear rate. It is a solvent-free liquid product. It promotes good paint pick up, while maintaining a low yield point after shearing, and consequently a good levelling. We will then determine its rheological behaviour experimentally using different annular gaps. The rheological properties of COAPUR 6050 were researched by rotational rheometer (Rheometer-Mars III) using different annular gaps. There is the influence of the size of the annular gap on the behaviour as well as on the rheological parameters of the COAPUR 6050. The rheological properties data of COAPUR 6050 were regressed by nonlinear regression method and their rheological models were established, are characterized by yield pseudoplastic model. In this case, it is essential to make a viscometric correction. The latter was developed and presented in the experimental results.

Keywords: COAPUR 6050, flow’s couette, polyurethane, rheological behaviours

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Authors: Alain Villemeur

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The relationships between the profit share in income on the one hand and the growth rates of output and employment on the other hand have been studied for 17 advanced economies since 1961. The vast majority (98%) of annual values for the profit share fall between 20% and 40%, with an average value of 33.9%. For the 17 advanced economies, Gross Domestic Product and productivity growth rates tend to fall as the profit share in income rises. For the employment growth rates, the relationships are complex; nevertheless, over long periods (1961-2000), it appears that the more job-creating economies are Australia, Canada, and the United States; they have experienced a profit share close to 1/3. This raises a number of questions, not least the value of 1/3 for the profit share and its role in macroeconomic fundamentals. To explain these facts, an endogenous growth model is developed. This growth and distribution model reconciles the great ideas of Kaldor (economic growth as a chain reaction), of Keynes (effective demand and marginal efficiency of capital) and of Ricardo (importance of the wage-profit distribution) in an economy facing creative destruction. A production function is obtained, depending mainly on the growth of employment, the rate of net investment and the profit share in income. In theory, we show the existence of incentives: an incentive for job creation when the profit share is less than 1/3 and another incentive for job destruction in the opposite case. Thus, increasing the profit share can boost the employment growth rate until it reaches the value of 1/3; otherwise lowers the employment growth rate. Three key findings can be drawn from these considerations. The first reveals that the best GDP and productivity growth rates are obtained with a profit share of less than 1/3. The second is that maximum job growth is associated with a 1/3 profit share, given the existence of incentives to create more jobs when the profit share is less than 1/3 or to destroy more jobs otherwise. The third is the decline in performance (GDP growth rate and productivity growth rate) when the profit share increases. In conclusion, increasing the profit share in income weakens GDP growth or productivity growth as a long-term trend, contrary to the trickle-down hypothesis. The employment growth rate is maximum for a profit share in income of 1/3. All these lessons suggest macroeconomic policies considering the profit share in income.

Keywords: advanced countries, GDP growth, employment growth, profit share, economic policies

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Authors: Ashish Dhamaniya, Vineet Jain, Rajesh Chouhan

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Traffic management is one of the gigantic issue in most of the urban roads in al-most all metropolitan cities in India. Speed is one of the critical traffic parameters for effective Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) implementation as it decides the arrival rate of vehicles on an intersection which are majorly the point of con-gestions. The study aimed to leverage Machine Learning (ML) models to produce precise predictions of speed on urban roadway links. The research objective was to assess how categorized traffic volume and road width, serving as variables, in-fluence speed prediction. Four tree-based regression models namely: Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and Extreme Gradient Boost (XGB)are employed for this purpose. The models' performances were validated using test data, and the results demonstrate that Random Forest surpasses other machine learning techniques and a conventional utility theory-based model in speed prediction. The study is useful for managing the urban roadway network performance under mixed traffic conditions and effective implementation of ITS.

Keywords: stream speed, urban roads, machine learning, traffic flow

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Authors: Nancy Samuel Reyad Farhan

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even though international crook law has grown considerably inside the ultimate decades, it still remains fragmented and lacks doctrinal cohesiveness. Its idea is defined within the doctrine as pretty disputable. there is no concrete definition of the term. in the home doctrine, the hassle of crook law troubles that rise up within the worldwide setting, and international troubles that get up in the national crook regulation, is underdeveloped each theoretically and nearly. To the exceptional of writer’s know-how, there aren't any studies describing worldwide elements of crook law in a complete way, taking a more expansive view of the difficulty. This paper provides consequences of a part of the doctoral studies, assignment a theoretical framework of the worldwide crook law. It ambitions at checking out the present terminology on international components of criminal law. It demonstrates differences among the notions of global crook regulation, criminal regulation international and law worldwide crook. It confronts the belief of crook regulation with associated disciplines and indicates their interplay. It specifies the scope of international criminal regulation. It diagnoses the contemporary criminal framework of global components of criminal regulation, referring to each crook law issues that rise up inside the international setting, and international problems that rise up within the context of national criminal law. ultimately, de lege lata postulates had been formulated and route of modifications in global criminal law turned into proposed. The followed studies hypothesis assumed that the belief of international criminal regulation became inconsistent, not understood uniformly, and there has been no conformity as to its location inside the system of regulation, objective and subjective scopes, while the domestic doctrine did not correspond with international requirements and differed from the global doctrine. applied research strategies covered inter alia a dogmatic and legal technique, an analytical technique, a comparative approach, in addition to desk studies.

Keywords: social networks privacy issues, social networks security issues, social networks privacy precautions measures, social networks security precautions measures

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Authors: Reshaa Alruwaili

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This study was inspired by previous studies with young children that found (a) that they need both inhibitory control and working memory when drawing an unfamiliar subject (e.g., animals) by adapting their schema of the human figure and (b) that when drawing something familiar (e.g., a person) they use inhibitory control mediated through fine motor control to execute their drawing. This study, therefore, systematically investigated whether direct effects for both working memory and inhibitory control and/or effects mediated through fine motor control existed when drawing both familiar and unfamiliar subjects. Participants were 95 children (41-66 months old) required to draw both a man and a dog, scored respectively for how representational they were and for differences from a human figure. Regression and mediation analyses showed that inhibitory control alone predicted drawing a recognizable man while working memory alone predicted drawing a dog that was not human-like when fine motor control, age, and gender were controlled. Contrasting with some previous studies, these results suggest that the roles of working memory and inhibitory control are sensitive to the familiarity of the drawing task and are not necessarily mediated through fine motor control. Implications for research on drawing development are discussed.

Keywords: child drawing, inhibitory control, working memory, fine motor control, mediation, familiar and unfamiliar subjects

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Authors: Khurram Shahzad, Muhammad Usman

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The main aim of this study is to examine the direct and interactive effects of job insecurity and Islamic work ethics on employee’s attitude towards change and organizational citizenship behavior. Design/methodology/approach: The data was collected from 171 male and female university teachers of Pakistan. Self administered, close ended questionnaires were used to collect the data. Data was analyzed through correlation and regression analysis. Findings: Through the analysis of data, it was found that job insecurity has a strong negative effect on the attitude towards change of university teachers. On the contrary, job insecurity has no significant effect on organizational citizenship behavior of university teachers. Our results also show that Islamic work ethics does not moderate the relationship of job insecurity and attitude towards change, while a strong moderation effect of Islamic wok ethics is found on the relationship of job insecurity and organizational citizenship behavior. Originality/value: This study for the first time examines the relationship of job insecurity with employee’s attitude towards change and organizational citizenship behavior with the moderating effect of Islamic work ethics.

Keywords: job security, islamic work ethics, attitude towards change, organizational citizenship behavior

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Authors: Maha Salah Abdullah Ismail, Manal S. Ismail, Amir M. Saleh

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Reflexology treatment is a method for enhancing body relaxation. It is a widely recognized as an alternative therapy, effective for many health conditions. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of reflexology treatment on arterial blood gases among mechanically ventilated patients. A quasi-experimental (pre and post-test) research design was used. Research hypothesis was mechanically ventilated patients who will receive the reflexology treatment will have improvement in their arterial blood gases than those who will not. The current study was carried out in different Intensive Care Units at the Cairo University Hospitals. A purposeful sample of 100 adults’ mechanically ventilated patients was recruited over a period of three months of data collection. The participants were divided into two equally matched groups; (1) The study group who has received the routine care, in addition, two reflexology sessions on the feet, (2) The control group who has received only the routine care. One tool was utilized to collect data pertinent to the study; mechanically ventilated patients' data sheet that consists of demographic and medical data. Result: Majority (58% of the study group and 82% of the control group) were males, with mean age of 50.9 years in both groups. Patients who received the reflexology treatment significantly increase in the oxygen saturation pre second session (t=5.15, p=.000), immediate post sessions (t=4.4, p=.000) and post two hours (t= 4.7, p= .000). The study group was more likely to have lower PaO2 (F=5.025, p=.015), PaCo2 (F=4.952, p=.025) and higher HCo3 (F=15.211, p=.000) than the control group. Conclusion: This study results support the positive effect of reflexology treatment in improving some arterial blood gases among mechanically ventilated patients’ with the conventional therapy as in the study group there was increase in the oxygen saturation. In differences between groups there decrease PaO2, PaCo2 and increase HCo3 in the study group. Recommendation: Nurses should be trained how to demonstrate the foot reflexology among mechanically ventilated patients.

Keywords: arterial blood gases, foot, mechanical ventilated patient, reflexology

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Authors: Vineeth G. Kuriakose, Joseph C. Chen, Ye Li

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The research follows a systematic approach to optimize the parameters for parts machined by turning and milling processes. The quality characteristic chosen is surface roughness since the surface finish plays an important role for parts that require surface contact. A tapered cylindrical surface is designed as a test specimen for the research. The material chosen for machining is aluminum alloy 6061 due to its wide variety of industrial and engineering applications. HAAS VF-2 TR computer numerical control (CNC) vertical machining center is used for milling and HAAS ST-20 CNC machine is used for turning in this research. Taguchi analysis is used to optimize the surface roughness of the machined parts. The L₉ Orthogonal Array is designed for four controllable factors with three different levels each, resulting in 18 experimental runs. Signal to Noise (S/N) Ratio is calculated for achieving the specific target value of 75 ± 15 µin. The controllable parameters chosen for turning process are feed rate, depth of cut, coolant flow and finish cut and for milling process are feed rate, spindle speed, step over and coolant flow. The uncontrollable factors are tool geometry for turning process and tool material for milling process. Hypothesis testing is conducted to study the significance of different uncontrollable factors on the surface roughnesses. The optimal parameter settings were identified from the Taguchi analysis and the process capability C_p and the process capability index C_pk were improved from 1.76 and 0.02 to 3.70 and 2.10 respectively for turning process and from 0.87 and 0.19 to 3.85 and 2.70 respectively for the milling process. The surface roughnesses were improved from 60.17 µin to 68.50 µin, reducing the defect rate from 52.39% to 0% for the turning process and from 93.18 µin to 79.49 µin, reducing the defect rate from 71.23% to 0% for the milling process. The purpose of this study is to efficiently utilize the Taguchi design analysis to improve the surface roughness.

Keywords: surface roughness, Taguchi parameter design, CNC turning, CNC milling

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Authors: David F. Nettleton, Christian Wasiak, Jonas Dorissen, David Gillen, Alexandr Tretyak, Elodie Bugnicourt, Alejandro Rosales

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In this work, preliminary results are given for the modeling and calibration of two inline processes, pultrusion, and laser ablation, using machine learning techniques. The end product of the processes is the core of a medical guidewire, manufactured to comply with a user specification of diameter and flexibility. An ensemble approach is followed which requires training several models. Two state of the art machine learning algorithms are benchmarked: Kernel Recursive Least Squares (KRLS) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The final objective is to build a precise digital model of the pultrusion and laser ablation process in order to calibrate the resulting diameter and flexibility of a medical guidewire, which is the end product while taking into account the friction on the forming die. The result is an ensemble of models, whose output is within a strict required tolerance and which covers the required range of diameter and flexibility of the guidewire end product. The modeling and automatic calibration of complex in-line industrial processes is a key aspect of the Industry 4.0 movement for cyber-physical systems.

Keywords: calibration, data modeling, industrial processes, machine learning

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Authors: Mohammed Nishat, Ahmad Ghazali

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This study empirically examines the corporate governance and firm performance, and tries to evaluate the governance, ownership and control related variables which are hypothesized to affect on firms performance. This study tries to evaluate the effectiveness of corporate governance mechanism to achieve high level performance among companies listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) over the period from 2005 to 2008. To measure the firm performance level this research uses three measures of performance; Return on assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE) and Tobin’s Q. To link the performance of firms with the corporate governance three categories of corporate governance variables are tested which includes governance, ownership and control related variables. Fixed effect regression model is used to test the link between corporate governance and firm performance for 267 KSE listed Pakistani firms. The result shows that corporate governance variables such as percentage block holding by individuals have positive impact on firm performance. When CEO is also the chairperson of board then it is found that firm performance is adversely affected. Also negative relationship is found between share held by insiders and performance of firm. Leverage has negative impact on the performance of the firm and firm size is positively related with the firms performance.

Keywords: corporate governance, performance, agency cost, Karachi stock market

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Authors: Theresa Marie Miller, Ma. Nympha Joaquin

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The aim of this study was to check the predictive power of social-oriented and individual-oriented achievement motivation on student engagement and collaborative problem-solving skills in mathematics. A sample of 277 fourth year high school students from the Philippines were selected. Surveys and videos of collaborative problem solving activity were used to collect data from respondents. The mathematics teachers of the participants were interviewed to provide qualitative support on the data. Systemaitc correlation and regression analysis were employed. Results of the study showed that achievement motivations−SOAM and IOAM− linearly predicted student engagement but was not significantly associated to the collaborative problem-solving skills in mathematics. Student engagement correlated positively with collaborative problem-solving skills in mathematics. The results contribute to theorizing about the predictive power of achievement motivations, SOAM and IOAM on the realm of academic behaviors and outcomes as well as extend the understanding of collaborative problem-solving skills of 21st century learners.

Keywords: achievement motivation, collaborative problem-solving skills, individual-oriented achievement motivation, social-oriented achievement motivation, student engagement

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Authors: S. A. Khan, B. Mishra, O. Sherchan

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Background and Aims: Thyroid disorder is the most common endocrine disorder after diabetes mellitus. Females are more vulnerable to this disease, and old age is an important risk factor. This study was undertaken to investigate the burden of thyroid disorder in Nepalese postmenopausal women. Methods: In the present cross-sectional study, we included 271 post-menopausal women. Three ml of blood was collected following standard protocol after taking the written consent. Serum was separated and analyzed for free T3, free T4, and Thyroid Stimulating Hormone (TSH) by Chemiluminescence Immunoassay (CLIA) method in Snibe Maglumi 1000 analyzer. Data obtained was analyzed in SPSS Version 21. P < 0.05 was set for statistical significant at 95% Confidence Interval (CI). Results: Majority of the participants belong to Janjati (46.5%) ethnicity, followed by Brahmin/Chhetri (41.7%), residing either in urban or suburban locality. Most of them were non-vegetarian, non-smoker, and non-alcoholic. Subjects were divided into hyperthyroid (TSH < 0.3 uIU/ml), hypothyroid (TSH > 4.5 uIU/ml), and euthyroid (TSH=0.3-4.5 uIU/ml) based on TSH value. We reported 10.3% hyperthyroid and 29.2% hypothyroid cases. TSH was significantly correlated with T3 (r=-0.244; p < 0.001) T4 (r=-0.398; p < 0.001); age (r=-0.138; p=0.023) and BMI (r=0.123; p=0.043). Multiple linear regression model for TSH reveals only T3 and T4 were significantly associated with TSH (p < 0.001; p=0.001). Conclusion: To conclude, nearly 39.5% of the postmenopausal women had thyroid disorder. Postmenopausal women are vulnerable to thyroid disorder; therefore, requires regular thyroid monitoring.

Keywords: thyroid stimulating hormone, TSH, T3, T4, thyroid disorder

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Authors: Efe Çukur

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This study aims to discuss and compare i) widespread and generic design, particularly industrial design education in relation to the specific needs of the automotive/transportation industry, and ii) an automotive/transportation design education model within and under to provide the conditions of design education and automotive industry, especially in Turkey and T.R.N.C. The automotive industry is the 11th largest in the world ($1.51 trillion). One of the most important departments in this industry, along with sales, marketing and engineering, is the design department. The automotive industry is known as the locomotive industry, but there is a non-automotive design department on the academic side of Turkey. This suggestion; includes the presentation of a program proposal that meets the needs of the industry for Turkey and T.R.N.C., the second largest automobile manufacturing country in Europe. On the education side, industrial design education has become a generic title. Automotive design studios are divided into several subgroups. Even in the higher graduate education, the automotive design departments get their subgroups like exterior design and interior design. Transportation design, which is a subfield of industrial design, is offered as higher education in transportation design departments, particularly in America and Europe. In these departments, the curriculum is shaped to the needs of the sectors. Higher education transportation design programs began in the mid-20th century. Until those high education programs...Until these high education programs, the industry has adapted architectures and engineers for designer workloads. Still today transportation design graduates are not the majority of the design studios. The content of the study is an in-depth comparison of these institutions and how the requirements, demands of the industry are met in this regard and revealed. Some of the institutions are selected from Europe and US. To be analyzed under the headings of staff, courses, syllabus, University-Industry collaboration, and location selection. The study includes short, mid, and long term proposals and a hypothesis for discussion. In short, the study will not only provide a wide comparative scope of information on generic and specialized aspects of design education in different countries but also propose a higher education model for automotive / transportation design with solid data of requirements, methodology, and structure regarding learning outcomes, and especially industry cooperation.

Keywords: design education, automotive - transportation design programs, transportation design, automotive industry in Turkey /T.R.N.C., automotive design education in Turkey /T.R.N.C.

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Authors: Jayanti De

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Users of any urban road infrastructure may be classified into various categories. The current paper intends to see whether the opinions on different environmental and transportation criteria vary significantly among different types of road users or not. The paper addresses this issue by using a unique survey data that has been collected from Kolkata, a highly populated city in India. Multiple criteria should be taken into account while planning on infrastructure development programs. Given limited resources, a welfare maximizing government typically resorts to public opinion by designing surveys for prioritization of one project over another. Designing such surveys can be challenging and costly. Deciding upon whom to include in a survey and how to represent each group of consumers/road-users depend crucially on how opinion for different criteria vary across consumer groups. A unique dataset has been collected from various parts of Kolkata to statistically test (using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) whether assigning of weights to rank the transportation criteria like congestion, air pollution, noise pollution, and morning/evening delay vary significantly across the various groups of users of such infrastructure. The different consumer/user groups in the dataset include pedestrian, private car owner, para-transit (taxi /auto rickshaw) user, public transport (bus) user and freight transporter among others. Very little evidence has been found that ranking of different criteria among these groups vary significantly. This also supports the hypothesis that road- users/consumers form their opinion by using their long-run rather than immediate experience. As a policy prescription, this implies that under-representation or over-representation of a specific consumer group in a survey may not necessarily distort the overall opinion, since opinions across different consumer groups are highly correlated as evident from this particular case study.

Keywords: multi criteria analysis, project-prioritization, road- users, survey designing

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Authors: Camila Plaza, Stefan Felder

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In October 2014, the TARMED reform was implemented in Switzerland. In an effort to even out the financial standing of general practitioners (including pediatricians) relative to that of specialists in the outpatient sector, the reform tackled two aspects: on the one hand, GPs would be able to bill an additional 9 CHF per patient, once per consult per day. This is referred to as the surcharge position. As a second measure, it reduced the fees for certain technical services targeted to specialists (e.g., imaging, surgical technical procedures, etc.). Given the fee-for-service reimbursement system in Switzerland, we predict that physicians reacted to the economic incentives of the reform by increasing the consults per patient and decreasing the average amount of time per consult. Within this framework, our treatment group is formed by GPs and our control group by those specialists who were not affected by the reform. Using monthly insurance claims panel data aggregated at the physician praxis level (provided by SASIS AG), for the period of January 2013-December 2015, we run difference in difference panel data models with physician and time fixed effects in order to test for the causal effects of the reform. We account for seasonality, and control for physician characteristics such as age, gender, specialty, and physician experience. Furthermore, we run the models on subgroups of physicians within our sample so as to account for heterogeneity and treatment intensities. Preliminary results support our hypothesis. We find evidence of an increase in consults per patients and a decrease in time per consult. Robustness checks do not significantly alter the results for our outcome variable of consults per patient. However, we do find a smaller effect of the reform for time per consult. Thus, the results of this paper could provide policymakers a better understanding of physician behavior and their sensitivity to financial incentives of reforms (both past and future) under the current reimbursement system.

Keywords: difference in differences, financial incentives, health reform, physician behavior

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Authors: Muhammad Tariq, Hammad Tahir, Fawwad Mahmood Butt

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Purpose: This study attempts to examine the best forecasting methodologies in the time series. The time series forecasting models such as VAR, ARCH and the ARMA are considered for the analysis. Methodology: The Bench Marks or the parameters such as Adjusted R square, F-stats, Durban Watson, and Direction of the roots have been critically and empirically analyzed. The empirical analysis consists of time series data of Consumer Price Index and Closing Stock Price. Findings: The results show that the VAR model performed better in comparison to other models. Both the reliability and significance of VAR model is highly appreciable. In contrary to it, the ARCH model showed very poor results for forecasting. However, the results of ARMA model appeared double standards i.e. the AR roots showed that model is stationary and that of MA roots showed that the model is invertible. Therefore, the forecasting would remain doubtful if it made on the bases of ARMA model. It has been concluded that VAR model provides best forecasting results. Practical Implications: This paper provides empirical evidences for the application of time series forecasting model. This paper therefore provides the base for the application of best time series forecasting model.

Keywords: forecasting, time series, auto regression, ARCH, ARMA

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Authors: Abraham Rotich

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The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of relationship banking on the financial performance of SMEs. The paper attempted to establish the link between the constructs of relationship banking and SME performance. The study was guided by relationship lending, relationship monitoring, relationship risk sharing and bundle of products as independent variables while financial performance will be the dependent variable. The study used a quasi experimental design with population being the 620 SMEs who have a relationship banking arrangement with banks in Nairobi. The study used stratified sampling to pick a sample of 235. The population of interest will be the CEOs of the respective companies. The basis of stratification is the sectors in which the SMEs operate in. The study will use a questionnaire to collect data. The questionnaire will have both open and close ended questions. A pilot study will be conducted to test reliability and validity of questionnaire. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics. Regression analysis was employed to test if there is a relationship between the dependent and the independent variable. The study found evidence that relationship banking positively impacts on financial performance of SMEs. Specifically, the study established that each component of relationship banking in this study i.e relationship lending, monitoring, bundle of products and risk sharing positively affects financial performance.

Keywords: relationship banking, SMEs, financial performance, entrepreneurial orientation

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Authors: M. Sadoughi, R. Ehsani

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The aim of the present study is examining the relationship between conceptual organizational culture and the level of tolerance in employees of Islamic Azad University of Shahre Ghods. This research is a correlational and analytic-descriptive one. The samples included 144 individuals. A 24-item standard questionnaire of organizational culture by Cameron and Queen was used in this study. This questionnaire has six criteria and each criterion includes four items that each item indicates one cultural dimension. Reliability coefficient of this questionnaire was normed using Cronbach's alpha of 0.91. Also, the 25-item questionnaire of tolerance by Conor and Davidson was used. This questionnaire is in a five-degree Likert scale form. It has seven criteria and is designed to measure the power of coping with pressure and threat. It has the needed content reliability and its reliability coefficient is normed using Cronbach's alpha of 0.87. Data were analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient and multivariable regression. The results showed among various dimensions of organizational culture, there is a positive significant relationship between three dimensions (family, adhocracy, bureaucracy) and tolerance, there is a negative significant relationship between dimension of market and tolerance and components of organizational culture have the power of prediction and explaining the tolerance. In this explanation, the component of family is the most effective and the best predictor of tolerance.

Keywords: adhocracy, bureaucracy, organizational culture, tolerance

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Authors: Barry Aifesehi Aiworo, Henry Oriakhi

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This paper, examines the analysis of access pattern to school and travel risks among school children in Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. The risk includes accident, molestation (sexually) and kidnapping. The objective of this paper are to examine the various means (modes) of transport to school; determine the type and incidences of risk experienced by school children in the study area; examine the risk incidences and ages of school children in the study area. Hypothesis which states that the types of risks encountered by school children are independent of means of transport was tested using the chi-square test (X2). A sampling ratio of twelve percent (12%) was taken from 396 schools in Benin City. By implication, 49 schools were randomly selected in Benin City for this research. A total of 42,053 students in the 49 schools constitute the sample frame for the research. Two percent (2%), 841 students were taken as the sample size. The use of stratified sampling method was applied by stratifying the study area (Benin City) into local governments- Egor, Ikpoba-Okha and Oredo. Thereafter, the lists of schools in the various local governments were obtained from the Ministry of Education before the schools for research were randomly chosen from each local government area. The analysis revealed that 6.7% of the total students interviewed have been involved in road accidents. 1.04% of the total respondents said at one time or the other that they have been kidnapped. Finally, the research found that travel is comparatively safe and believes this may be partly attributable to safer route to schools and school children being more familiar with the school journey. The research indicates that children aged between eleven and fifteen are most at risk of hit or knocked down on Benin City’s roads. These findings may help in planning and targeting road safety initiative (education, campaigns) in Benin City.

Keywords: accident, molestation (sexually), kidnapping, pedophile, pedestrian

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Authors: Andrea Vega-Tinoco, Ana I. Gil-Lacruz, Marta Gil-Lacruz

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The main objective of this research is to acknowledge whether civic participation affects the well-being of the elderly, thus being a key activity of active aging. It is also of interest to recognize any differences among genders, generational cohorts or country of residence. If a positive relationship is found between civic participation and well-being, the actions that promote this participation will benefit the quality of life of senior citizens. Otherwise, independent action must be taken in the improvement of social and human capital. The sample consists of approximately 50.000 individuals from the European Social Survey (2002-2016). Only individuals born before 1965 in 15 European countries were considered. The sample was distributed according to gender, year of birth, country, level of studies and ESS wave to form pseudo-panel data cohorts, leaving a total of 1.318 observations. The data were analyzed through a Cross-Lagged Model using Fixed-Effects. A bidirectional association is observed between the civic participation and well-being variables. However, participating in the past seems to have a higher impact on today’s health, happiness and life satisfaction than the other way around. Furthermore, 26% of the respondents expressed to be satisfied with their life, 27% to be happy and 57% to have good health. On the other hand, 49% have participated civically in the last year, being the most common activities: signing petitions, boycotting products and volunteer work in non-political organizations. A slight trend of BabyBoomers and men towards greater participation can be observed, as well as a higher impact of this participation on their well-being. In addition, international differences exhibit a stronger relation for Nordic, East European and Mediterranean countries. The given results support the hypothesis that civic participation is a promoter of well-being for the elderly. This paper positively highlights the activity of involving in political and non-political organizations, as well as wearing badges. At any rate, almost all forms of civic participation show a positive relationship with well-being and should therefore be promoted, although differences between countries must be taken into consideration.

Keywords: active aging, civic participation, Europe, well-being

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Xia Huo

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The composition and metabolites of the gut microbiota can be altered by environmental pollutants. However, the effect of co-exposure to multiple pollutants on the human gut microbiota has not been sufficiently studied. In this study, gut microorganisms and their metabolites were compared between 33 children from Guiyu and 34 children from Haojiang. The exposure level was assessed by estimating the daily intake (EDI) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 6PPD-quinone (6PPDQ), and metal(loid)s in dust. Significant correlations were found between the EDIs of 6PPDQ, BDE28, PCB52, Ni, Cu, and both the alpha diversity index and specific metabolites in single-element models. The study found that the Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) model showed a negative correlation between the EDIs of five pollutants (6PPDQ, BDE28, PCB52, Ni, and Cu) and the Chao 1 index, particularly beyond the 55th percentile. Furthermore, the EDIs of these five pollutants were positively correlated with the levels of the metabolite 2,4-diaminobutyric acid while negatively correlated with the levels of d-erythro-sphingosine and d-threitol. Our research suggests that exposure to 6PPDQ, BDE28, PCB52, Ni, and Cu in kindergarten dust is associated with alterations in the gut microbiota and its metabolites. These alterations may be associated with neurodevelopmental abnormalities in children.

Keywords: gut microbiota, 6PPDQ, PBDEs, PCBs, metal(loid)s, BKMR

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Authors: Shawna Staud, Mary Kaye Scaramucci

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Objective: Rubber cup polishing has been a traditional method of preventative therapy in dental hygiene treatment. Newer methods such as air polishing have changed the way dental hygiene care is provided, yet this technique has not been embraced by students in the program nor by practitioners in the workforce. Students entering the workforce tend to follow office protocol and are limited in confidence to introduce technologies learned in the curriculum. This project was designed to help students gain confidence in newer skills and encourage private practice settings to adopt newer technologies for patient care. Our program recently introduced air polishing earlier in the program before the rubber cup technique to determine if students would embrace the technology to become leading-edge professionals when they enter the marketplace. Methods: The class of 2022 was taught the traditional method of polishing in the first-year curriculum and air polishing in the second-year curriculum. The class of 2023 will be taught the air polishing method in the first-year curriculum and the traditional method of polishing in the second-year curriculum. Pre- and post-graduation survey data will be collected from both cohorts. Descriptive statistics and pre and post-paired t-tests with alpha set at .05 to compare pre and post-survey results will be used to assess data. Results: This study is currently in progress, with a completion date of October 2023. The class of 2022 completed the pre-graduation survey in the spring of 2022. The post-gradation survey will be sent out in October 2022. The class of 2023 cohort will be surveyed in the spring of 2023 and October 2023. Conclusion: Our hypothesis is students who are taught air polishing first will be more inclined to adopt that skill in private practice, thereby embracing newer technology and improving oral health care.

Keywords: luggage handling system at world’s largest pilgrimage center

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Bundit Pungnirund

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The objectives of this research were to study the factors affecting life quality of residents who lived in the low-cost housing in Thailand. This study employed by quantitative research and the questionnaire was used to collect the data from 400 sampled of the residents in low-cost housing projects in Thailand. The descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze data. The research results revealed that economic status of residents, government’s policy on dwelling places, leadership of community leaders, environmental condition of the community, and the quality of life were rated at the good level, while the participation of residents, and the knowledge and understanding of community members were rated at the high level. Furthermore, the environmental condition, the government’s policy on dwelling places, knowledge and understanding of residents, leadership of community leaders, economic status of the residents, and participation of community members had significantly affected the quality of life of residents in the low-cost housing.

Keywords: quality of life, community leadership, community participation, low-cost housing

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Authors: Khaled M. Alqahtani

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Copy number alterations (CNA) are variations in the structure of the genome, where certain regions deviate from the typical two chromosomal copies. These alterations are pivotal in understanding tumor progression and are indicative of patients' survival outcomes. However, effectively modeling patients' survival based on their genomic CNA profiles while identifying relevant genomic regions remains a statistical challenge. Various methods, such as the Cox proportional hazard (PH) model with ridge, lasso, or elastic net penalties, have been proposed but often overlook the inherent dependencies between genomic regions, leading to results that are hard to interpret. In this study, we enhance the elastic net penalty by incorporating an additional penalty that accounts for these dependencies. This approach yields smooth parameter estimates and facilitates variable selection, resulting in a sparse solution. Our findings demonstrate that this method outperforms other models in predicting survival outcomes, as evidenced by our simulation study. Moreover, it allows for a more meaningful interpretation of genomic regions associated with patients' survival. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach using both real data from a lung cancer cohort and simulated datasets.

Keywords: copy number alterations, cox proportional hazard, lung cancer, regression, sparse solution

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Authors: Bailey Houghtaling, Sarah Misyak

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Food access; the availability, affordability, convenience, and desirability of food and beverage products within communities, is influential on consumers’ purchasing and consumption decisions. These variables may contribute to lower dietary quality scores and a higher obesity prevalence documented among rural and disadvantaged populations in the United States (U.S.). Current research assessing linkages between food access and obesity outcomes has primarily focused on distance to a traditional grocery/supermarket store as a measure of optimality. However, low-income consumers especially, including U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants, seem to utilize non-traditional food store formats with greater frequency for household dietary needs. Non-traditional formats have been associated with less nutritious food and beverage options and consumer purchases that are high in saturated fats, added sugars, and sodium. Authors’ formative research indicated differences by U.S. region and rurality in the distribution of traditional and non-traditional SNAP-authorized food store formats. Therefore, using Virginia as a case study, the purpose of this research was to determine if a relationship between store format, rurality, and obesity exists. This research applied SNAP-authorized food store data (food access points for SNAP as well as non-SNAP consumers) and obesity prevalence data by Virginia county using publicly available databases: (1) SNAP Retailer Locator, and; (2) U.S. County Health Rankings. The alpha level was set a priori at 0.05. All Virginia SNAP-authorized stores (n=6,461) were coded by format – grocery, drug, mass merchandiser, club, convenience, dollar, supercenter, specialty, farmers market, independent grocer, and non-food store. Simple linear regression was applied primarily to assess the relationship between store format and obesity. Thereafter, multiple variables were added to the regression to account for potential moderating relationships (e.g., county income, rurality). Convenience, dollar, non-food or restaurant, mass merchandiser, farmers market, and independent grocer formats were significantly, positively related to obesity prevalence. Upon controlling for urban-rural status and income, results indicated the following formats to be significantly related to county obesity prevalence with a small, positive effect: convenience (p=0.010), accounting for 0.3% of the variance in obesity prevalence; dollar (p=0.005; 0.5% of the variance), and; non-food (p=0.030; 1.3% of the variance) formats. These results align with current literature on consumer behavior at non-traditional formats. For example, consumers’ food and beverage purchases at convenience and dollar stores are documented to be high in saturated fats, added sugars, and sodium. Further, non-food stores (i.e., quick-serve restaurants) often contribute to a large portion of U.S. consumers’ dietary intake and thus poor dietary quality scores. Current food access research investigates grocery/supermarket access and obesity outcomes. These results suggest more research is needed that focuses on non-traditional food store formats. Nutrition interventions within convenience, dollar, and non-food stores, for example, that aim to enhance not only healthy food access but the affordability, convenience, and desirability of nutritious food and beverage options may impact obesity rates in Virginia. More research is warranted utilizing the presented investigative framework in other U.S. and global regions to explore the role and the potential of non-traditional food store formats to prevent and reduce obesity.

Keywords: food access, food store format, non-traditional food stores, obesity prevalence

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