Search results for: great flood

Authors: Essam Gooda, Chadi Abdallah, Hamdi Seif, Safaa Baydoun, Rouya Hdeib, Hilal Obeid

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Floods are common natural disaster occurring in semi-arid regions in Lebanon. This results in damage to human life and deterioration of environment. Despite their destructive nature and their immense impact on the socio-economy of the region, flash floods have not received adequate attention from policy and decision makers. This is mainly because of poor understanding of the processes involved and measures needed to manage the problem. The current understanding of flash floods remains at the level of general concepts; most policy makers have yet to recognize that flash floods are distinctly different from normal riverine floods in term of causes, propagation, intensity, impacts, predictability, and management. Flash floods are generally not investigated as a separate class of event but are rather reported as part of the overall seasonal flood situation. As a result, Lebanon generally lacks policies, strategies, and plans relating specifically to flash floods. Main objective of this research is to improve flash flood prediction by providing new knowledge and better understanding of the hydrological processes governing flash floods in the East Catchments of El Assi River. This includes developing rainstorm time distribution curves that are unique for this type of study region; analyzing, investigating, and developing a relationship between arid watershed characteristics (including urbanization) and nearby villages flow flood frequency in Ras Baalbeck and Fekha. This paper discusses different levels of integration approach¬es between GIS and hydrological models (HEC-HMS & HEC-RAS) and presents a case study, in which all the tasks of creating model input, editing data, running the model, and displaying output results. The study area corresponds to the East Basin (Ras Baalbeck & Fakeha), comprising nearly 350 km2 and situated in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon. The case study presented in this paper has a database which is derived from Lebanese Army topographic maps for this region. Using ArcMap to digitizing the contour lines, streams & other features from the topographic maps. The digital elevation model grid (DEM) is derived for the study area. The next steps in this research are to incorporate rainfall time series data from Arseal, Fekha and Deir El Ahmar stations to build a hydrologic data model within a GIS environment and to combine ArcGIS/ArcMap, HEC-HMS & HEC-RAS models, in order to produce a spatial-temporal model for floodplain analysis at a regional scale. In this study, HEC-HMS and SCS methods were chosen to build the hydrologic model of the watershed. The model then calibrated using flood event that occurred between 7th & 9th of May 2014 which considered exceptionally extreme because of the length of time the flows lasted (15 hours) and the fact that it covered both the watershed of Aarsal and Ras Baalbeck. The strongest reported flood in recent times lasted for only 7 hours covering only one watershed. The calibrated hydrologic model is then used to build the hydraulic model & assessing of flood hazards maps for the region. HEC-RAS Model is used in this issue & field trips were done for the catchments in order to calibrated both Hydrologic and Hydraulic models. The presented models are a kind of flexible procedures for an ungaged watershed. For some storm events it delivers good results, while for others, no parameter vectors can be found. In order to have a general methodology based on these ideas, further calibration and compromising of results on the dependence of many flood events parameters and catchment properties is required.

Keywords: flood risk management, flash flood, semi arid region, El Assi River, hazard maps

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Authors: Shaidatul Azdawiyah Abdul Talib, Wan Mohd Razi Idris, Liew Ju Neng, Tukimat Lihan, Muhammad Zamir Abdul Rasid

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Climate change has received great attention worldwide due to the impact of weather causing extreme events. Rainfall and temperature are crucial weather components associated with climate change. In Malaysia, increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution patterns lead to drought and flood events involving agricultural areas, especially rice fields. Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA) is the largest rice growing area among the 10 granary areas in Malaysia and has faced floods and droughts in the past due to changing climate. Changes in rainfall and temperature patter affect rice yield. Therefore, trend analysis is important to identify changes in temperature and rainfall patterns as it gives an initial overview for further analysis. Six locations across the MADA area were selected based on the availability of meteorological station (MetMalaysia) data. Historical data (1991 to 2020) collected from MetMalaysia and future climate projection by multi-model ensemble of climate model from CMIP5 (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) have been analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the time series trend, together with standardized precipitation anomaly, rainfall anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and temperature anomaly. Future projection data were analyzed based on 3 different periods; early century (2020 – 2046), middle century (2047 – 2073) and late-century (2074 – 2099). Results indicate that the MADA area does encounter extremely wet and dry conditions, leading to drought and flood events in the past. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test discovered a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in annual rainfall (z = 0.40; s = 15.12) and temperature (z = 0.61; s = 0.04) during the historical period. Similarly, for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) was found for rainfall (RCP 4.5: z = 0.15; s = 2.55; RCP 8.5: z = 0.41; s = 8.05;) and temperature (RCP 4.5: z = 0.84; s = 0.02; RCP 8.5: z = 0.94; s = 0.05). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.6 °C in early century, 2.0 °C in the middle century and 2.4 °C in the late century. In contrast, under RCP 8.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.8 °C in the early century, 3.1 °C in the middle century and 4.3 °C in late century. Drought is projected to occur in 2038 and 2043 (early century); 2052 and 2069 (middle century); and 2095, 2097 to 2099 (late century) under RCP 4.5 scenario. As for RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is projected to occur in 2021, 2031 and 2034 (early century); and 2069 (middle century). No drought is projected to occur in the late century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Thus, this information can be used for the analysis of the impact of climate change scenarios on rice growth and yield besides other crops found in MADA area. Additionally, this study, it would be helpful for researchers and decision-makers in developing applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change.

Keywords: climate projection, drought, flood, rainfall, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, temperature

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Authors: Ahmed M. Al-Hasem

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A study of the tidal current behavior and bathymetric changes was undertaken in order to establish an information base for future coastal management. The average velocity for tidal current was 0.46 m/s and the maximum velocity was 1.08 m/s during ebb tide. During spring tides, maximum velocities range from 0.90 m/s to 1.08 m/s, whereas maximum velocities vary from 0.40 m/s to 0.60 m/s during neap tides. Despite greater current velocities during flood tide, the bathymetric features enhance the dominance of the ebb tide. This can be related to the abundance of fine sediments from the ebb current approaching the study area, and the relatively coarser sediment from the approaching flood current. Significant bathymetric changes for the period from 1985 to 1998 were found with dominance of erosion process. Approximately 96.5% of depth changes occurred within the depth change classes of -5 m to 5 m. The high erosion processes within the study area will subsequently result in high accretion processes, particularly in the north, the location of the proposed Boubyan Port and its navigation channel.

Keywords: bathymetric change, Boubyan island, GIS, Khor Abdullah, tidal current behavior

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Authors: Fong-Zuo Lee, Jihn-Sung Lai, Yung-Bin Lin, Xiaoqin Liu, Kuo-Chun Chang, Zhi-Xian Yang, Wen-Dar Guo, Jian-Hao Hong

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In recent years, climate change is a major factor to increase rainfall intensity and extreme rainfall frequency. The increased rainfall intensity and extreme rainfall frequency will increase the probability of flash flood with abundant sediment transport in a river basin. The floods caused by heavy rainfall may cause damages to the bridge, embankment, hydraulic works, and the other disasters. Therefore, the foundation scouring of bridge pier, embankment and spur dike caused by floods has been a severe problem in the worldwide. This severe problem has happened in many East Asian countries such as Taiwan and Japan because of these areas are suffered in typhoons, earthquakes, and flood events every year. Results from the complex interaction between fluid flow patterns caused by hydraulic works and the sediment transportation leading to the formation of river morphology, it is extremely difficult to develop a reliable and durable sensor to measure river bed degradation and bridge pier scouring. Therefore, an innovative scour monitoring sensor using vibration-based Micro-Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) was developed. This vibration-based MEMS sensor was packaged inside a stainless sphere with the proper protection of the full-filled resin, which can measure free vibration signals to detect scouring/deposition processes at the bridge pier. In addition, a friendly operational system includes rainfall runoff model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical model, and the applicability of sediment transport equation and local scour formulas of bridge pier are included in this research. The friendly operational system carries out the simulation results of flood events that includes the elevation changes of river bed erosion near the specified bridge pier and the erosion depth around bridge piers. In addition, the system is developed with easy operation and integrated interface, the system can supplies users to calibrate and verify numerical model and display simulation results through the interface comparing to the scour monitoring sensors. To achieve the forecast of the erosion depth of river bed and main bridge pier in the study area, the system also connects the rainfall forecast data from Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute. The results can be provided available information for the management unit of river and bridge engineering in advance.

Keywords: flash flood, river bed degradation, bridge pier scouring, a friendly operational system

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Authors: P. M. Kundu, L. R. Singo, J. O. Odiyo

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Luvuvhu River catchment in South Africa experiences floods resulting from heavy rainfall of intensities exceeding 15 mm per hour associated with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The generation of runoff is triggered by the rainfall intensity and soil moisture status. In this study, remote sensing and GIS techniques were used to analyze the hydrologic response to land cover changes. Runoff was calculated as a product of the net precipitation and a curve number coefficient. It was then routed using the Muskingum-Cunge method using a diffusive wave transfer model that enabled the calculation of response functions between start and end point. Flood frequency analysis was determined using theoretical probability distributions. Spatial data on land cover was obtained from multi-temporal Landsat images while data on rainfall, soil type, runoff and stream discharges was obtained by direct measurements in the field and from the Department of Water. A digital elevation model was generated from contour maps available at http://www.ngi.gov.za. The results showed that land cover changes had impacted negatively to the hydrology of the catchment. Peak discharges in the whole catchment were noted to have increased by at least 17% over the period while flood volumes were noted to have increased by at least 11% over the same period. The flood time to peak indicated a decreasing trend, in the range of 0.5 to 1 hour within the years. The synergism between remotely sensed digital data and GIS for land surface analysis and modeling was realized, and it was therefore concluded that hydrologic modeling has potential for determining the influence of changes in land cover on the hydrologic response of the catchment.

Keywords: catchment, digital elevation model, hydrological model, routing, runoff

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Authors: Sachini Wickramanayaka

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The occurrence of natural disasters has increased in an alarming rate in recent times due to escalating effects of climate change. One such natural disaster that has continued to grow in frequency and intensity is ‘flooding’, adversely affecting communities around the globe. This is an exploration on how architecture can intervene and facilitate in preserving communities in the face of disaster, specifically in battling floods. ‘Resilience’ is one of the concepts that have been brought forward to be instilled in vulnerable communities to lower the impact from such disasters as a preventative and coping mechanism. While there are number of ways to achieve resilience in the built environment, this paper aims to create a synthesis between resilience and ‘urban acupuncture’. It will consider strengthening communities from within, by layering a network of relatively small-scale, fast phased interventions on pre-existing conventional flood preventative large-scale engineering infrastructure.By investigating ‘The Woodlands’, a planned neighborhood as a case study, this paper will argue that large-scale water management solutions while extremely important will not suffice as a single solution particularly during a time of frequent and extreme weather events. The different projects will try to synthesize non-architectural aspects such as neighborhood aspirations, requirements, potential and awareness into a network of architectural forms that would collectively increase neighborhood resiliency to floods. A mapping study of the selected study area will identify the problematic areas that flood in the neighborhood while the empirical data from previously implemented case studies will assess the success of each solution.If successful the different solutions for each of the identified problem areas will exhibithow flooding and water management can be integrated as part and parcel of daily life.

Keywords: acupuncture, architecture, resiliency, micro-interventions, neighborhood

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Authors: Y. S. Lin, H. L. Lin

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Climate change and land-use change caused by urban expansion increase the frequency of urban flooding. To mitigate the increase in runoff volume, low-impact development (LID) is a green approach for reducing the area of impervious surface and managing stormwater at the source with decentralized micro-scale control measures. However, the current benefit assessment and practical application of LID in Taiwan is still tending to be development plan in the community and building site scales. As for urban design, site-based moisture-holding capacity has been common index for evaluating LID’s effectiveness of urban design, which ignore the diversity, and complexity of the urban built environments, such as different densities, positive and negative spaces, volumes of building and so on. Such inflexible regulations not only probably make difficulty for most of the developed areas to implement, but also not suitable for every different types of built environments, make little benefits to some types of built environments. Looking toward to enable LID to strength the link with urban design to reduce the runoff in coping urban flooding, the research consider different characteristics of different types of built environments in developing LID strategy. Classify the built environments by doing the cluster analysis based on density measures, such as Ground Space Index (GSI), Floor Space Index (FSI), Floors (L), and Open Space Ratio (OSR), and analyze their impervious surface rates and runoff volumes. Simulate flood situations by using quasi-two-dimensional flood plain flow model, and evaluate the flood mitigation effectiveness of different types of built environments in different low-impact development strategies. The information from the results of the assessment can be more precisely implement in urban design. In addition, it helps to enact regulations of low-Impact development strategies in urban design more suitable for every different type of built environments.

Keywords: low-impact development, urban design, flooding, density measures

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Authors: Jieh-Jiuh Wang

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Disasters happen frequently due to the global climate changes today. The cultural heritage conservation should be considered from the perspectives of surrounding environments and large-scale disasters. Most current thoughts about the disaster prevention of cultural heritages in Taiwan are single-point thoughts emphasizing firefighting, decay prevention, and construction reinforcement and ignoring the whole concept of the environment. The traditional conservation cannot defend against more and more tremendous and frequent natural disasters caused by climate changes. More and more cultural heritages are confronting the high risk of disasters. This study adopts the perspective of risk identification and takes flood as the main disaster category. It analyzes the amount and categories of cultural heritages that might suffer from disasters with the geographic information system integrating the latest flooding potential data from National Fire Agency and Water Resources Agency and the basic data of cultural heritages. It examines the actual risk of cultural heritages confronting floods and serves as the accordance for future considerations of risk measures and preparation for reducing disasters. The result of the study finds the positive relationship between the disaster affected situation of national cultural heritages and the rainfall intensity. The order of impacted level by floods is historical buildings, historical sites indicated by municipalities and counties, and national historical sites and relics. However, traditional settlements and cultural landscapes are not impacted. It might be related to the taboo space in the traditional culture of site selection (concepts of disaster avoidance). As for the regional distribution on the other hand, cultural heritages in central and northern Taiwan suffer from more shocking floods, while the heritages in northern and eastern Taiwan suffer from more serious flooding depth.

Keywords: cultural heritage, flood, preventive conservation, risk management

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Authors: Tetiana Boriak

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The study is called to test correlation between official sources, preserved in the archives, and “unofficial” oral history regarding the Great Famine of 1932–1933 in Ukraine. The research shows poor preservation of the sources, being deliberately destroyed by the totalitarian regime. It involves analysis of five stages of Holodomor oral history development. It is oral history that provides the mechanism of mass killing. The research proves that using only one type of historical sources leads to a certain line of reading history of the Holodomor, while usage of both types provides in-depth insight in the history of the famine.

Keywords: the Holodomor (the Great Famine), oral history, historical source, historical memory, totalitarianism.

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Authors: M. R. Dahmardeh Ghaleno, M. Nohtani, S. Khaledi

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Flood simulation and prediction is one of the most active research areas in surface water management. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous, and physical model with daily or hourly time step that explains precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave equation which depends on the slope, velocity, and flow route characteristics. Golestan Dam Basin is located in Golestan province in Iran and it is passing over coordinates 55° 16´ 50" to 56° 4´ 25" E and 37° 19´ 39" to 37° 49´ 28"N. The area of the catchment is about 224 km², and elevations in the catchment range from 414 to 2856 m at the outlet, with average slope of 29.78%. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 59% and 80.18%, respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, stream flow, flood prediction

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Authors: Ammar Asfari, Faizah Finur Fithriah, Shighia Ajeng Savitri

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Jakarta as the capital city of Indonesia held an important role for the country, that is being the city where central government is located. But its topographic character which categorized as lowland area is causing an ultimate trouble. With average height of 7 meters above the sea level, flood keeps occurring in this city. On the other hand, water exploitation that caused land subsidence and sea-levels increasing by global warming make it even worse. Giant Sea Wall Development is a project created by Jakarta’s government to overcome flood, which is inspired by Saemangeum Dam in South Korea. For further planning, Giant Sea Wall is planned to be water reservoir for Jakarta’s inhabitants. This research’s aim is to fully understand the knowledge and opinion of people living in North Jakarta (Jakarta’s Coastal Area) on Giant Sea Wall development planning using qualitative method analysis with descriptive approach. The result of this research will be one of the determining factors in Giant Sea Wall Jakarta development planning continuance.

Keywords: descriptive approach, Giant Sea Wall Jakarta, qualitative method analysis, society perception

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Authors: Anand Malik

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The Himalayas with high tectonic activities poses a great threat to human life and property. Climate change is another reason which triggering extreme events multiple fold effect on high mountain glacial environment, rock falls, landslides, debris flows, flash flood and snow avalanches. One such extreme event of cloud burst along with breach of moraine dammed Chorabri Lake occurred from June 14 to June 17, 2013, triggered flooding of Saraswati and Mandakini rivers in the Kedarnath Valley of Rudraprayag district of Uttrakhand state of India. As a result, huge volume of water with its high velocity created a catastrophe of the century, which resulted into loss of large number of human/animals, pilgrimage, tourism, agriculture and property. Thus a comprehensive assessment of debris flow hazards requires GIS-based modeling using numerical methods. The aim of present study is to focus on analysis and mapping of debris flow movements using geospatial data with flow-r (developed by team at IGAR, University of Lausanne). The model is based on combined probabilistic and energetic algorithms for the assessment of spreading of flow with maximum run out distances. Aster Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 30m x 30m cell size (resolution) is used as main geospatial data for preparing the run out assessment, while Landsat data is used to analyze land use land cover change in the study area. The results of the study area show that model can be applied with great accuracy as the model is very useful in determining debris flow areas. The results are compared with existing available landslides/debris flow maps. ArcGIS software is used in preparing run out susceptibility maps which can be used in debris flow mitigation and future land use planning.

Keywords: debris flow, geospatial data, GIS based modeling, flow-R

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Authors: Nani Manvelishvili

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Soviet propaganda tried to shape common public opinion through Soviet Press. The activation of propaganda gained special importance to increase the fighting ability of the military and people behind the front During the Great Patriotic war (1941-1945). The state propaganda used unnecessary intervention in Press and created characters who were supposed to be role models for society. The new female role models were identified, which were supported by the authorities. The representation of the mother, warrior woman, working woman, victim, feminine woman, etc., in the works aimed to raise the fighting ability of the Soviet citizen and incite patriotism. This paper analyzes the soviet Press (The newspaper “Komunisti”) that was written and published during the Great Patriotic war in Soviet Georgia. The study aims to find propagandistic content in Press that used Soviet ideology during the Great Patriotic war. We analyzed the Soviet Newspaper "Komunisti," published during wartime. Soviet Press had the most significant impact on the formation of public opinion. The Soviet government actively used this resource to increase combat capability. While at the beginning of the war, women were supposed to replace men, propaganda by the end of the war moved to reassert conservative gender politics. Women returned to their traditional roles.

Keywords: Great Patriotic War, Soviet Georgia, women in war, women's history, Soviet press

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Authors: Arup Kumar Sarma, Rohan Kar

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The development of physical model of River like Brahmaputra, which finds its origin in the Chema Yundung glacier of Tibet and flows through India and Bangladesh, is always expensive and very much time consuming. With the advancement of computational technique, mathematical modeling has found wide application. MIKE 21C is one such commercial software, developed by Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI), with the depth-averaged approach and a two-dimensional curvilinear finite-difference model, which is capable of modeling hydrodynamic and morphological processes with some limitations. The main purpose of this study are to generate bathymetry of the River Brahmaputra starting from “Sadia” at upstream to “Dhubri,” at downstream stretching a distance of approximately 695 km, for four different years: 1957, 1971, 1977, and 1981 over the grid generated in the MIKE 21C and to carry out the hydrodynamic simulation for these years to analyze the effect of bathymetry change on the surface water elevation. The study has established that bathymetric change can influence the flood level significantly in some of the river reaches and therefore the modification or updating of regular bathymetry is very much essential for the reliable flood routing in alluvial rivers.

Keywords: bathymetry, brahmaputra river, hydrodynamic model, surface water elevation

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh River, Log Pearson Type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Milad Sadeghpoor Moalem, Mahmood Zakeri Niri, Leili Sadeghi Khalegh Abadi

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While there are many benefits to using reservoir dams, their break leads to destructive effects. From the viewpoint of International Committee of Large Dams (ICOLD), dam break means the collapse of whole or some parts of a dam; thereby the dam will be unable to hold water. Therefore, studying dam break phenomenon and prediction of its behavior and effects reduces losses and damages of the mentioned phenomenon. One of the most common types of reservoir dams is embankment dam. Overtopping in embankment dams occurs because of flood discharge system inability in release inflows to reservoir. One of the most important issues among managers and engineers to evaluate the performance of the reservoir dam rim when sliding into the storage, creating waves is large and long. In this study, the effects of floods which caused the overtopping of the dam have been investigated. It was assumed that spillway is unable to release the inflow. To determine outflow hydrograph resulting from dam break, numerical model using Flow-3D software and empirical equations was used. Results of numerical models and their comparison with empirical equations show that numerical model and empirical equations can be used to study the flood resulting from dam break.

Keywords: embankment dam break, empirical equations, Taleghan dam, Flow-3D numerical model

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Authors: Fares Laouacheria, Said Kechida, Moncef Chabi

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The objective of the study was based on the hydrological routing modelling for the continuous monitoring of the hydrological situation in the Moudjar river catchment, especially during floods with Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modelling Systems (HEC-HMS). The HEC-GeoHMS was used to transform data from geographic information system (GIS) to HEC-HMS for delineating and modelling the catchment river in order to estimate the runoff volume, which is used as inputs to the hydrological routing model. Two hydrological routing models were used, namely Muskingum and Muskingum routing models, for conducting this study. In this study, a comparison between the parameters of the Muskingum and Muskingum-Cunge routing models in HEC-HMS was used for modelling flood routing in the Moudjar river catchment and determining the relationship between these parameters and the physical characteristics of the river. The results indicate that the effects of input parameters such as the weighting factor "X" and travel time "K" on the output results are more significant, where the Muskingum routing model was more sensitive to input parameters than the Muskingum-Cunge routing model. This study can contribute to understand and improve the knowledge of the mechanisms of river floods, especially in ungauged river catchments.

Keywords: HEC-HMS, hydrological modelling, Muskingum routing model, Muskingum-Cunge routing model

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Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Duc-Anh-An-Vo, Kathryn Reardon Smith, Thanh Ma

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Climate change has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in the 21st century. Climate change-induced natural disasters, especially floods, are the major factors of livelihood vulnerability, impacting millions of individuals worldwide. Evaluating and mitigating the effects of floods requires an in-depth understanding of the relationship between vulnerability and livelihood capital assets. Using an integrated approach, sustainable livelihood framework, and system thinking approach, the study developed a conceptual model of a generalized livelihood system in District Rajanpur, Pakistan. The model visualizes the livelihood vulnerability system as a whole and identifies the key feedback loops likely to influence the livelihood vulnerability. The study suggests that such conceptual models provide effective communication and understanding tools to stakeholders and decision-makers to anticipate the problem and design appropriate policies. It can also serve as an evaluation technique for rural livelihood policy and identify key systematic interventions. The key finding of the study reveals that household income, health, and education are the major factors behind the livelihood vulnerability of the rural poor of District Rajanpur. The Pakistani government tried to reduce the livelihood vulnerability of the region through different income, health, and education programs, but still, many changes are required to make these programs more effective especially during the flood times. The government provided only cash to vulnerable and marginalized families through income support programs, but this study suggests that along with the cash, the government must provide seed storage facilities and access to crop insurance to the farmers. Similarly, the government should establish basic health units in villages and frequent visits of medical mobile vans should be arranged with advanced medical lab facilities during and after the flood.

Keywords: livelihood vulnerability, rural communities, flood, sustainable livelihood framework, system dynamics, Pakistan

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Authors: Nurtazin Sabir, Begon Michael, Yeszhanov Aidyn, Alexander Belyaev, Hughes Nelika, Bethany Levick, Salmurzauly Ruslan

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This paper describes the features of the distribution of the most abundant species of fleas that are carriers of the most dangerous infections in the Balkhash-Alakol depression of Kazakhstan. We show that of 153 species of fleas described in the territory of the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus Licht.), 35 species are parasitic. 21 of them are specific to gerbils species, and four species of fleas from the Xenopsylla genus are dominant in number and value of epizootic. We also describe the modern features of habitats of these species and their relationship with the great gerbil populations found in the South Balkhash region. It indicates the need for research on the population structure of the most abundant fleas species and their relationship with the structure of the populations of main carrier of transmission infections in the region-great gerbil.

Keywords: Balkhash-Alakol depression, natural foci of plague, species diversity and distribution of fleas, flea and great gerbil population structure, epizootic activity, mass species of fleas

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Rapid urbanization, rising population, changing lifestyles and in-migration, Lucknow is groundwater over-exploited area, with an abstract rate of 1968 m3/day/km2 in Gomti Nagar. The groundwater situation in Gomti Nagar is deteriorating day-by-day. According to the work, the calculated annual water deficiency in Gomti Nagar area will be 28061 Million Litre (ML) in 2022. Within 30 yrs., the water deficiency will be 735570 ML (till 2051). The calculated groundwater recharge in Gomti Nagar was 10813 ML/y (in 2022). The annual groundwater abstraction from Gomti Nagar area was 35332 ML/yr. (in 2022). Bye-laws (≥ 300 sq.m) existing RTRWHs can recharge 17.71 ML/yr. in Gomti Nagar area. The existing RTRWHs are contributing 0.07% for recharging groundwater table. In Gomti Nagar, the water level is dropping at a rate of 1.0 metre per year, and the depth of the water table is less than 30 metre below ground level (mbgl). Natural groundwater recharge is affected by the geomorphological conditions of the surrounding area. Gomti Nagar is located on the erosional terrace (Te) and depositional terrace (d) of the Gomti River. The flood plain in Lucknow city is less active due to the embankments on the both sides of the Gomti River. The alluvium is composed of clay sandy up to a depth of 30m, and the alignment of the Gomti River reveals the presence of sandy soil at shallow depths. Aquifer depth 120 metre. Recharge as in Gomti Nagar (it may vary) 0 – 150 metre. Infiltration rates in alluvial floodplains range from 0.8 to 74 cm/hr. Geologically and Geomorphologically support rapid percolation of rainwater through alluvium in Gomti Nagar, Lucknow city, Uttar Pradesh. Over-exploitation of groundwater causes natural hazards viz. land subsidence, development of cracks on roads and buildings, development of vacuum and compactness of soil/clay which leads towards land subsidence, devastating effects on natural stream flow. Gomti River already transitioning phase from ‘effluent’ to ‘influent’, and saline intrusion in Aquifer –II (among Five aquifers in Lucknow city). A 250 m long crack developed in 2007 due to groundwater depletion in Dullu Khera and Vader Khera village of Kakori, Uttar Pradesh. The groundwater table of Lucknow is declining and water table imbalance occurs due to 17 times less recharge than groundwater exploitation. Uttar Pradesh along with four states have extracted 49% of groundwater in the entire country. In Gomti Nagar area, 27305 no of houses are present and available build up area 3.8 sq. km (60% of plot area) based on Lucknow Development Authority (LDA) Master plan 2031. If RTRWHs would install in all the houses, then 12% harvested rainwater contribute to the water table in Gomti Nagar area. Till 2051, Gomti Nagar area will harvest 91110 ML of rainwater. There are minimalistic chances that any incidence of flood can occur due to RTRWH. Thus, it can conclud that RTRWH is not related to flood happening in urban areas viz. Gomti Nagar.

Keywords: RTRWH, aquifer, groundwater table, rainwater, infiltration

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Authors: Ali Liaghat, Navid Tavanpour, Nima Tavanpour

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An increase in population and prevalence of urbanity have led plan makers and decision makers put effort into sustainable development of cities at national and local levels. One of the important issues in urban development is compliance with safety issues in cities. Despite natural disasters and unexpected events such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, fires, etc., urban development should be regarded as an axiom, or else any form of construction and development is not safe, because it will greatly harm economic growth and development and pose an obstacle to achieving sustainable development, plus a loss to lives and finances of people. Therefore, in line with urban development, it is necessary to identify particular environmental and local issues as determinants and pay attention to them at the top of everything, in that we can call it a good action and factor in urban sustainable developments. Physical structure of each city represents how it has developed or its development shaped and what incidents, changes, natural disasters it has undergone over time. Since any form of development plan should be in accordance with the previous situations of cities, disregarding it, unfortunately, can escalate into uncontrolled urban development, non-resistant and unstable construction against earthquake or invasion of river areas, destruction of agricultural lands or vegetation, periodic floods over time. It has been viewed as serious threats to developing cities, and typically caused destruction of bed and other urban facilities as well as damages to lives and finances. In addition, uncontrolled development has caused cities to look ugly in terms of urban façade, and off and on such unplanned measures caused the country to face countless losses, and it not only vitiates expenses incurred, but it will also impose additional costs of reconstruction, i.e. it is unsustainable development. Thus, in this paper, in addition to a discussion about necessity for a profound attitude toward this subject and making long-term plans, programs for organizing river and its surrounding area, creating open and green urban spaces, retrofitting and flood preventing are presented for sustainable safety and development of cities along with a critique of successful countries.

Keywords: flood, sustainable development, urbanisation, urban management

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Authors: Gayane Vardanyan, Gaia Narciso, Battista Severgnini

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This paper investigates the long-run impact of the Great Irish Famine on emigration from Ireland at the turn of the twentieth century. To do it we combine the 1901 and the 1911 Irish Census data sets with the Ellis Island Administrative Records on Irish migrants to the United States. We find that the migrants were more likely to be Catholic, literate, unmarried, young and Gaelic speaking compared to the ones that stay. Running individual level specifications, our preliminary findings suggest that being born in a place where the Famine was more severe increases the probability of becoming a migrant in the long-run. We also intend to explore the mechanisms through which this impact occurs.

Keywords: Great Famine, mass migration, long-run impact, mechanisms

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Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

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To ensure the overall coherence of simulated results, it is necessary to develop a robust validation process. In many applications, it is no longer content to calibrate and validate the model only in relation to the hydro graph measured at the outlet, but we try to better simulate the functioning of the watershed in space. Therefore the timing also performs compared to other variables such as water level measurements in intermediate stations or groundwater levels. As part of this work, we limit ourselves to modeling flood of short duration for which the process of evapotranspiration is negligible. The main parameters to identify the models are related to the method of unit hydro graph (HU). Three different models were tested: SNYDER, CLARK and SCS. These models differ in their mathematical structure and parameters to be calibrated while hydrological data are the same, the initial water content and precipitation. The models are compared on the basis of their performance in terms six objective criteria, three global criteria and three criteria representing volume, peak flow, and the mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to strong events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent and also highlight the problems associated with the simulation of low flow events and intermittent precipitation.

Keywords: model calibration, intensity, runoff, hydrograph

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Authors: Abhinav Bajpayee, Shubham Damke, Rupal Ranjan, Neha Bharti

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Polymer flooding is a dramatic improvement in water flooding and quickly becoming one of the EOR technologies. Used for improving oil recovery. With the increasing energy demand and depleting oil reserves EOR techniques are becoming increasingly significant .Since most oil fields have already begun water flooding, chemical EOR technique can be implemented by using fewer resources than any other EOR technique. Polymer helps in increasing the viscosity of injected water thus reducing water mobility and hence achieves a more stable displacement .Polymer flooding helps in increasing the injection viscosity as has been revealed through field experience. While the injection of a polymer solution improves reservoir conformance the beneficial effect ceases as soon as one attempts to push the polymer solution with water. It is most commonly applied technique because of its higher success rate. In polymer flooding, a water-soluble polymer such as Polyacrylamide is added to the water in the water flood. This increases the viscosity of the water to that of a gel making the oil and water greatly improving the efficiency of the water flood. It also improves the vertical and areal sweep efficiency as a consequence of improving the water/oil mobility ratio. Polymer flooding plays an important role in oil exploitation, but around 60 million ton of wastewater is produced per day with oil extraction together. Therefore the treatment and reuse of wastewater becomes significant which can be carried out by electro dialysis technology. This treatment technology can not only decrease environmental pollution, but also achieve closed-circuit of polymer flooding wastewater during crude oil extraction. There are three potential ways in which a polymer flood can make the oil recovery process more efficient: (1) through the effects of polymers on fractional flow, (2) by decreasing the water/oil mobility ratio, and (3) by diverting injected water from zones that have been swept. It has also been suggested that the viscoelastic behavior of polymers can improve displacement efficiency Polymer flooding may also have an economic impact because less water is injected and produced compared with water flooding. In future we need to focus on developing polymers that can be used in reservoirs of high temperature and high salinity, applying polymer flooding in different reservoir conditions and also combine polymer with other processes (e.g., surfactant/ polymer flooding).

Keywords: fractional flow, polymer, viscosity, water/oil mobility ratio

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Authors: Kazuki Kohama, Hiroko Ono

Abstract:

The rainfall in Japan is gradually increasing every year according to Japan Meteorological Agency and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. It means that the rainfall difference between rainy season and non-rainfall is increasing. In addition, the increasing trend of strong rain for a short time clearly appears. In recent years, natural disasters have caused enormous human injuries in various parts of Japan. Regarding water disaster, local heavy rain and floods of large rivers occur frequently, and it was decided on a policy to promote hard and soft sides as emergency disaster prevention measures with water disaster prevention awareness social reconstruction vision. Okinawa prefecture in subtropical region has torrential rain and water disaster several times a year such as river flood, in which is caused in specific rivers from all 97 rivers. Also, the shortage of capacity and narrow width are characteristic of river in Okinawa and easily cause river flood in heavy rain. This study focuses on Kohatu River that is one of the specific rivers. In fact, the water level greatly rises over the river levee almost once a year but non-damage of buildings around. On the other hand in some case, the water level reaches to ground floor height of house and has happed nine times until today. The purpose of this research is to figure out relationship between precipitation, surface outflow and total treatment water quantity of Kohatu River. For the purpose, we perform hydrological analysis although is complicated and needs specific details or data so that, the method is mainly using Geographic Information System software and outflow analysis system. At first, we extract watershed and then divided to 23 catchment areas to understand how much surface outflow flows to runoff point in each 10 minutes. On second, we create Unit Hydrograph indicating the area of surface outflow with flow area and time. This index shows the maximum amount of surface outflow at 2400 to 3000 seconds. Lastly, we compare an estimated value from Unit Hydrograph to a measured value. However, we found that measure value is usually lower than measured value because of evaporation and transpiration. In this study, hydrograph analysis was performed using GIS software and outflow analysis system. Based on these, we could clarify the flood time and amount of surface outflow.

Keywords: disaster prevention, water disaster, river flood, GIS software

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Authors: E. U. Dampage, Ovindi D. Bandara, Vinushi S. Waraketiya, Samitha S. R. De Silva, Yasiru S. Gunarathne

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The knowledge of water inflow figures is paramount in decision making on the allocation for consumption for numerous purposes; irrigation, hydropower, domestic and industrial usage, and flood control. The understanding of how reservoir inflows are affected by different climatic and hydrological conditions is crucial to enable effective water management and downstream flood control. In this research, we propose a method using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to assist the aforesaid decision-making process. The Kotmale reservoir, which is the uppermost reservoir in the Mahaweli reservoir complex in Sri Lanka, was used as the test bed for this research. The ANN uses the runoff in the Kotmale reservoir catchment area and the effect of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) to make a forecast for seven days ahead. Three types of ANN are tested; Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and LSTM. The extensive field trials and validation endeavors found that the LSTM ANN provides superior performance in the aspects of accuracy and latency.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, CNN, inflow, long short-term memory, LSTM, multi-layer perceptron, MLP, neural network

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wang

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The study of extreme rainfall events is very important for flood management in river basins and the design of water conservancy infrastructure. Evaluation of quantiles of annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) is required in different environmental fields, agriculture operations, renewable energy sources, climatology, and the design of different structures. Therefore, the annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) was performed at different stations in Pakistan. Multiple probability distributions, log normal (LN), generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel (max), and Pearson type3 (P3) were used to find out the most appropriate distributions in different stations. The L moments method was used to evaluate the distribution parameters. Anderson darling test, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, and chi-square test showed that two distributions, namely GUM (max) and LN, were the best appropriate distributions. The quantile estimate of a multi-parameter PD offers extreme rainfall through a specific location and is therefore important for decision-makers and planners who design and construct different structures. This result provides an indication of these multi-parameter distribution consequences for the study of sites and peak flow prediction and the design of hydrological maps. Therefore, this discovery can support hydraulic structure and flood management.

Keywords: RAMSE, multiple frequency analysis, annual maximum rainfall, L-moments

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Authors: Csaba Barnabas Horvath

Abstract:

The Belt and Road initiative of China is one that can change the face of Eurasia as we know it. Instead of four major, densely populated subcontinents defined by Mackinder (East Asia, Europe, the Indian Subcontinent, and the Middle East) isolated from each other by vast, sparsely populated and underdeveloped regions, it can at last start to function as a geographic whole, with a sophisticated infrastructure linking its different parts to each other. This initiative, however, happens not in a geopolitical vacuum, but in a space of conflicting great power interests. In Central Asia, the influence of China and Russia are in a setting of competition, where despite the cooperation between the two powers to a great degree, issues causing mutual mistrust emerge repeatedly. In Afghanistan, besides western military presence, even India’s efforts can be added to the picture. In Southeast Asia, a key region regarding the maritime Silk Road, India’s Act East policy meets with China’s Belt and Road, not always in consensus, not to mention US and Japanese interests in the region. The presentation aims to take an overview on how conflicting great power interests are likely to influence the outcome of the Belt and Road initiative. The findings show, that overall success of the Belt and Road Initiative may not be as smooth, as hoped by China, but at the same time, in a limited number of strategically important countries (such as Pakistan, Laos, and Cambodia), this setting is actually a factor favoring China, providing at least a selected number of reliable corridors, where the initiative is actually likely to be successful.

Keywords: belt and road initiative, geostrategic corridors, geopolitics, great power rivalry

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Authors: Sakshi Yadav, Sushila Shekhawat

Abstract:

This study addresses different types of points of view as seen in nature documentary films with the help of three eco documentaries, and it would be significant in understanding the role of the narrative point of view as a tool for showing and telling in documentaries. Narrative analysis of a film forms an essential aspect of the discourse of scholarship in film studies. Narration is the chain of events occurring in time and space. The notion of narrative provides the idea of coherence and wholeness to the story. There are various components that the narration carries, one of which is the perspective or point of view. The narrator plays the role of a mediator between the film and the audience; thus, his perspective influences the way the audience interprets the film. Feature films have been analyzed through narrative points of view; however, this research intends to conduct it from the angle of a nature documentary film. The study will examine narrative viewpoints unique to nature documentary films using three ecological documentary films-The Cove (2009), Tale of a forest (2012), and Before the flood (2016). This research will apply the framework of narrative theory and will investigate the impact of the different types of narrative points of view, as each portrays the human-nature relationship from a different standpoint, and it will also study the effect that the narrative point of view has on the mode of these eco documentaries.

Keywords: ecodocumentary, narrative, human-nature relationship, point of view

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Authors: Mohammad Saber Eslamlou, Manouchehr Tabibian, Mahta Mirmoghtadaei

Abstract:

The history of urban development and the increasing complexities of urban life have long been intertwined with different natural and man-made disasters. Sometimes, these unpleasant events have destroyed the cities forever. The growth of the urban population and the increase of social and economic resources in the cities increased the importance of developing a holistic approach to dealing with unknown urban disasters. As a result, the interest in resilience has increased in most of the scientific fields, and the urban planning literature has been enriched with the studies of the social, economic, infrastructural, and physical abilities of the cities. In this regard, different conceptual frameworks and patterns have been developed focusing on dimensions of resilience and different kinds of disasters. As the most frequent and likely natural disaster in Iran is flooding, the present study aims to develop a cause-effect model of urban resilience against flood in Karaj City. In this theoretical study, desk research and documentary studies were used to find the elements and dimensions of urban resilience. In this regard, 6 dimensions and 32 elements were found for urban resilience and a questionnaire was made by considering the requirements of TOPSIS techniques (pairwise comparison). The sample of the research consisted of 10 participants who were faculty members, academicians, board members of research centers, managers of the Ministry of Road and Urban Development, board members of New Towns Development Company, experts, and practitioners of consulting companies who had scientific and research backgrounds. The gathered data in this survey were analyzed using TOPSIS and Shannon Entropy techniques. The results show that Infrastructure/Physical, Social, Organizational/ Institutional, Structural/Physical, Economic, and Environmental dimensions are the most effective factors in urban resilience against floods in Karaj, respectively. Finally, a comprehensive model and a systematic framework of factors that affect the urban resilience of Karaj against floods was developed. This cause – effect model shows how different factors are related and influence each other, based on their connected structure and preferences.

Keywords: urban resilience, TOPSIS, Shannon entropy, cause-effect model of resilience, flood

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