Search results for: external risks

Authors: Buket Canbaz Öztürk, N. Füsun Çam, Günseli Yaprak, Osman Candan

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The external terrestrial radiation exposure is related to the types of rock from which the soils originate. Higher radiation levels are associated with igneous rocks, such as granite, and lower levels with sedimentary rocks. Therefore, this study aims to assess the gamma radiation exposure of soils associated with granitic rocks in Kapıdağ Peninsula, Turkey. In the ongoing study, a comprehensive survey carried out systematically as a part of the environmental monitoring program on radiologic impact of the granitoid areas in Western Anatolia. The activity measurements of the gamma emitters (238U, 232Th and 40K) in the surface soil samples and the granitic rocks carried out by means of NaI(Tl) gamma-ray spectrometry system. To evaluate the radiological hazard of the natural radioactivity, the absorbed dose rate (D), the annual effective dose rate (AED), the radium equivalent activity (Raeq) and the external (Hex) hazard index were calculated according to the UNSCEAR 2000 report. The corresponding absorbed dose rates in air from all natural radionuclides were always much lower than 200 nGy h-1 and did not exceed the typical range of worldwide average values noticed in the UNSCEAR (2000) report. Furthermore, the correlation between soil and granitic rock samples were utilized, and external gamma radiation exposure distribution was mapped in Kapıdağ Peninsula.

Keywords: external absorbed dose, granitic rocks, Kapıdağ Peninsula, soil

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Authors: Syed Noaman Shah

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The current paper evaluates the effect of external public debt risk on the borrowing cost of private non-financial firms in euro zone. Further, the study also treats the impact of austerity measures on syndicated-loan spreads of private firm followed by euro area member states to revive the economic growth in the region. To test these hypotheses, we follow multivariate ordinary least square estimation method to assess the effect of external public debt on the borrowing cost of private firms. By using foreign syndicated-loan issuance data of non-financial private firms from 2005 to 2011, we attempt to gauge how the private financing cost varies with high levels of sovereign external debt prevalent in the euro zone. Our results suggest significant effect of external public debt on the borrowing cost of private firm. In particular, an increase in external public debt by one standard deviation from its sample mean raises syndicated-loan spread by 89 bps. Furthermore, weak creditor rights protection prevalent in member states deepens this effect. However, we do not find any significant effect of domestic public debt on the private sector borrowing cost. In addition, the results show significant effect of austerity measures on private financing cost, both in normal and in crisis period in the euro zone. In particular, one standard deviation change in fiscal consolidation conditional mean reduces the syndicated-loan spread by 22 bps. In turn, it indicates strong presence of credibility channel due to austerity measures in euro area region.

Keywords: corporate debt, fiscal consolidation, sovereign debt, syndicated-loan spread

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Authors: Messay Mulugeta, Degefa Tolossa

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The purpose of this paper is to scrutinize trends of climate risks in eastern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia. This part of the country appears severely affected by recurrent droughts, erratic rainfall, and increasing temperature condition. Particularly, erratic rains and moisture stresses have been forcibly threatening and shoving the people over many decades coupled with unproductive policy frameworks and weak institutional setups. These menaces have been more severe in dry lowlands where rainfall is more erratic and scarce. Long-term climate data of nine weather stations in eastern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia were obtained from National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA). As issues related to climate risks are very intricate, different techniques and indices were applied to deal with the objectives of the study. It is concluded that erratic rainfall, moisture scarcity, and increasing temperature conditions have been the main challenges in eastern and southeastern Ethiopia. In fact, these risks can be eased by putting in place efficient and integrated rural development strategies, environmental rehabilitation plans of action in overworked areas, proper irrigation and water harvesting practices and well thought-out and genuine resettlement schemes.

Keywords: rainfall variability, erratic rains, precipitation concentration index (PCI), climatic pattern, Ethiopia

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Authors: Abdirahim Mohamed, Sarita Rana Chhetri, Michael Sleath, Nadia Saleem

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Rationale: Internet usage has been very much integrated into our daily lives. Internet usage within a neurodevelopmental disorder population is also on the increase. Nevertheless, there is very little empirical research on how this population virtually protect themselves; along with how their parents can keep them safe online. This topic was an ever-growing concern to the parents within our services and in many cases would add to the stresses and mental health of parents. This ignited an idea within our team to conduct research to explore the perceived online risks within this population and how they keep themselves safe. In conjunction, we also explored how parents and caregivers monitor and safeguard their young people to the potential threats online. Our hypothesis was that the perceived risks will heavily outnumber the safeguarding measures implemented by this population. Method: Within the Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Partnership Trust Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service (CAMHS), we distributed qualitative questionnaires to all the clinical bases (N=80). Questions explored topics such as daily internet usage, safeguarding measures, and perceived threats. The researchers requested for all CAMHS clinicians to identify participants. Participants in this study were accessing CAMHS for neurodevelopmental specific interventions. Results: The data were analysed using both Excel and SPSS. Within SPSS, a MANOVA was conducted and found a significant difference between safeguarding measures and perceived online risks within responses (p ≤ 0.5). This supports our hypothesis that participants in this population are well versed in the safeguarding issues of the internet; however, struggle to implement appropriate preventative measures. Data were also screened using Excel and found that all parents and carers stated they 'monitored their child’s internet use'. Conclusion: Data suggest that parents/carers may require more specific intervention to equip them with preventative measures due to the clear discrepancy between perceived risks and safeguarding measures. More research may also need to be conducted around this area to determine appropriate methodology to explore this topic further.

Keywords: Internet, health , how safe are we , internet health check

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Authors: Ayoub Moufid, Najib Bennis, Soumia El Hani

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The objective of greenhouse climate control is to improve the culture development and to minimize the production costs. A greenhouse is an open system to external environment and the challenge is to regulate the internal climate despite the strong meteorological disturbances. The internal state of greenhouse considered in this work is defined by too relevant and coupled variables, namely inside temperature and hygrometry. These two variables are chosen to describe the internal state of greenhouses due to their importance in the development of plants and their sensitivity to external climatic conditions, sources of weather disturbances. A multivariable model is proposed and validated by considering a greenhouse as black-box system and the least square method is applied to parameters identification basing on collected experimental measures. To regulate the internal climate, we propose a Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme. This one considers the measured meteorological disturbances and the physical and operational constraints on the control and state variables. A successful feasibility study of the proposed controller is presented, and simulation results show good performances despite the high interaction between internal and external variables and the strong external meteorological disturbances. The inside temperature and hygrometry are tracking nearly the desired trajectories. A comparison study with an On/Off control applied to the same greenhouse confirms the efficiency of the MPC approach to inside climate control.

Keywords: climate control, constraints, identification, greenhouse, model predictive control, optimization

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Authors: Shehu Isyaku

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The general objective of the study was to investigate ‘the relationship between the external business environment and the sustainability of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Jigawa state’, Nigeria. Specifically, the study was to examine the relationship between 1) the economic environment, 2) the social environment, 3) the technological environment, and 4) the political environment and the sustainability of MSMEs in Jigawa state, Nigeria. The study was drawn on Resource-Based View (RBV) Theory and Knowledge-Based View (KBV). The study employed a descriptive cross-sectional survey design. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect data from the 350 managers/owners who were selected using stratified, purposive and simple random sampling techniques. Data analysis was done using means and standard deviations, factor analysis, Correlation Coefficient, and Pearson Linear Regression analysis. The findings of the study revealed that the sustainability potentials of the managers/owners were rated as high potential (economic, environmental, and social sustainability using 5 5-point Likert scale. Mean ratings of effectiveness of the external business environment were; as highly effective. The results from the Pearson Linear Regression Analysis rejected the hypothesized non-significant effect of the external business environment on the sustainability of MSMEs. Specifically, there is a positive significant relationship between 1) economic environment and sustainability; 2) social environment and sustainability; 3) technological environment and sustainability and political environment and sustainability. The researcher concluded that MSME managers/owners have a high potential for economic, social and environmental sustainability and that all the constructs of the external business environment (economic environment, social environment, technological environment and political environment) have a positive significant relationship with the sustainability of MSMEs. Finally, the researcher recommended that 1) MSME managers/owners need to develop marketing strategies and intelligence systems to accumulate information about the competitors and customers' demands, 2) managers/owners should utilize the customers’ cultural and religious beliefs as an opportunity that should be utilized while formulating business strategies.

Keywords: business environment, sustainability, small and medium enterprises, external business environment

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number

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Authors: Ping Jiang, Yunyan Xing, Dian Zhang, Bo Guo

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The reliability qualification test (RQT) is widely used in product development to qualify whether the product meets predetermined reliability requirements, which are mainly described in terms of reliability indices, for example, MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures). It is widely exercised in product development. In engineering practices, RQT plans are mandatorily referred to standards, such as MIL-STD-781 or GJB899A-2009. But these conventional RQT plans in standards are not preferred, as the test plans often require long test times or have high risks for both producer and consumer due to the fact that the methods in the standards only use the test data of the product itself. And the standards usually assume that the product is exponentially distributed, which is not suitable for a complex product other than electronics. So it is desirable to develop an RQT plan derivation method that safely shortens test time while keeping the two risks under control. To meet this end, for the product whose lifetime follows Weibull distribution, an RQT plan derivation method is developed. The merit of the method is that expert judgment is taken into account. This is implemented by applying the Bayesian method, which translates the expert judgment into prior information on product reliability. Then producer’s risk and the consumer’s risk are calculated accordingly. The procedures to derive RQT plans are also proposed in this paper. As extra information and expert judgment are added to the derivation, the derived test plans have the potential to shorten the required test time and have satisfactory low risks for both producer and consumer, compared with conventional test plans. A case study is provided to prove that when using expert judgment in deriving product test plans, the proposed method is capable of finding ideal test plans that not only reduce the two risks but also shorten the required test time as well.

Keywords: expert judgment, reliability qualification test, test plan derivation, producer’s risk, consumer’s risk

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Authors: Brahim Brahmi, Mohammed Hamza Laraki, Mohammad Habibur Rahman, Islam M. Rasedul, M. Assad Uz-Zaman

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The humanoid robot, specifically the NAO robot must be able to provide a highly dynamic performance on the soccer field. Maintaining the balance of the humanoid robot during the required motion is considered as one of a challenging problems especially when the robot is subject to external disturbances, as contact with other robots. In this paper, a dynamic controller is proposed in order to ensure a robust walking (stabilization) and to improve the dynamic balance of the robot during its contact with the environment (external disturbances). The generation of the trajectory of the center of mass (CoM) is done by a model predictive controller (MPC) conjoined with zero moment point (ZMP) technique. Taking into account the properties of the rotational dynamics of the whole-body system, a modified previous control mixed with feedback control is employed to manage the angular momentum and the CoM’s acceleration, respectively. This latter is dedicated to provide a robust gait of the robot in the presence of the external disturbances. Simulation results are presented to show the feasibility of the proposed strategy.

Keywords: preview control, Nao robot, model predictive control

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Authors: Hien T. T. Ho, Tsunemi Watanabe

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The regulatory and market pressures on the restriction of nonylphenol and its ethoxylates in textile articles have confronted the textile manufacturers, particularly those in developing countries. This study aimed to examine the tentative behavior of the textile manufacturers in Vietnam from the perspectives of attitude and the perceptions of technical and organizational adaptabilities, risks, benefits, and barriers. Personal interviews were conducted with five technical specialists from four textile firms and one chemical supplier. The environmental regulatory and market situations regarding the chemical use in Vietnam were also described. The findings revealed two main opposing trends of chemical substitution depending on the market orientation of firms that governed the patterns of risk and benefit perception. The indirect influence of perceived adaptabilities on firm tentative behavior through perceived risks was elucidated, which initiated a conceptual model of firm’s behavior combining the organizational-based and the rational-based relationships. The intermediary role of non-governmental textile and garment industrial/ trade associations is highlighted to strengthen private firm’s informative capacity.

Keywords: firm behavior, institutional analysis, organizational adaptation, technical adaptation

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Authors: R. Testoni, R. Levizzari, M. De Salve

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Radioactive waste management is fundamental to safeguard population and environment by radiological risks. Environmental assessment of a site, where nuclear activities are located, allows understanding the hydro geological system and the radionuclides transport in groundwater and subsoil. Use of dedicated software is the basis of transport phenomena investigation and for dynamic scenarios prediction; this permits to understand the evolution of accidental contamination events, but at the same time the potentiality of the software itself can be verified. The aim of this paper is to perform a numerical analysis by means of HYDRUS 1D code, so as to evaluate radionuclides transport in a nuclear site in Piedmont region (Italy). In particular, the behaviour in vadose zone was investigated. An iterative assessment process was performed for risk assessment of radioactive contamination. The analysis therein developed considers the following aspects: i) hydro geological site characterization; ii) individuation of the main intrinsic and external site factors influencing water flow and radionuclides transport phenomena; iii) software potential for radionuclides leakage simulation purposes.

Keywords: HYDRUS 1D, radionuclides transport phenomena, site characterization, radiation protection

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Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejia, Jenny Paola Forero Pachon, Luis Carlos Gomez Florez

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The innumerable possibilities offered by the use of Information Technology (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities has made a change in the social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. The Colombian government, aware of this reality, has been promoting the use of IT as part of the E-government strategy adopted in the country. However, it is well known that the use of IT implies the existence of certain threats that put the security of information in the digital environment at risk. One of the priorities of the Colombian government is to improve access to alternative justice through IT, in particular, access to Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR): conciliation, arbitration and friendly composition; by means of which it is sought that the citizens directly resolve their differences. To this end, a trend has been identified in the use of Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) systems, which extend the benefits of ADR to the digital environment through the use of IT. This article presents a process for the analysis of information security risks associated with the incorporation of ODR systems in the context of conciliation in Colombia, based on four fundamental stages identified in the literature: (I) Identification of assets, (II) Identification of threats and vulnerabilities (III) Estimation of the impact and 4) Estimation of risk levels. The methodological design adopted for this research was the grounded theory, since it involves interactions that are applied to a specific context and from the perspective of diverse participants. As a result of this investigation, the activities to be followed are defined to carry out an analysis of information security risks, in the context of the conciliation in Colombia supported by ODR systems, thus contributing to the estimation of the risks to make possible its subsequent treatment.

Keywords: alternative dispute resolution, conciliation, information security, online dispute resolution systems, process, risk analysis

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Authors: Cornelius Femi Popoola

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Nigerian manufacturing industry, particularly the flour producing firms play vital roles in Nigerian economy. This sector’s quality management practice is given a little attention along with organizational factors that hinder successful practice of total quality management which needs to be documented. Honeywell Flour Mills Plc operate in Nigeria with an appreciable number of products that serves this sector of the economy. Internal-external disposition of the company and total quality practice of the company deserve some elucidations. Hence, this study examined the influence of organizational factors on total quality management practice of Nigerian manufacturing industry, using Honeywell Flour Mills Plc as a case study. The study employed the correlational type of descriptive survey research design. The population consisted of 656 staff of Honeywell Flour Mills Plc, out of which 235 members were selected through scientific sampling method developed by Paler-Calmorin and Calmorin. A total of 235 copies of questionnaires titled 'Organisational Factors and Total Quality Management Practices (QF-TQM) Questionnaire' were administered with a response rate of 66 copies returned. The following variables were applied internal organisational factors (IOFs), external organizational factors (EOFs) and total quality management (TQM). Data generated were analysed using frequency distribution and regression analysis at 0.05 level. The findings revealed that IOFs positively and significantly related with TQM (r = .147**, N= 64, P(.000) < .01). Also, EOFs negatively and significantly related with TQM (r = -.117, N= 64, P(.000) < .01). Findings showed that internal and external organizational factors jointly influenced TQM practiced in F₍₂,₆₁₎=22.250; R²=.629; Adj.R²=.603; P(.000) < .05). The study concluded that organizational factors are determinants of TQM practice in Nigerian manufacturing industry. It is recommended that both internal and external organizational factors influencing TQM practices should be considered in the development of TQM strategies.

Keywords: external organizational factors, internal organisational factors, Nigerian manufacturing industry, total quality management

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal, Jake Ansell

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Austerity impacts on all aspects of society. Companies into the future will have to be more capable of dealing with the risks they face. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has widely been accepted in recent years as an approach to manage risks within businesses. ERM attempts to tackle risk holistically with gains from opportunities in a managing risk and reduction in the risk of failure. The paper reviews merits and demerits of approaches to risk management in regard to antifragility. A qualitative study has investigated current practices and the problems with ERM implementation by interviewing over 25 chief risk officers and senior management. The findings indicate the gap in ERM description, understanding, and implementation. The paper suggests risk learning and expertise knowledge supports development of effective enterprise risk management by designing systems with inherent resilience.

Keywords: risk management, interviews, antifragility, failure

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Authors: M. Iqbal Mahmud, Haeng Muk Cho, Seo Hyun Sang, Wang Wen Hai, Chang Heon Yi, Man Ik Hwang, Dae Hoon Kang

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Solenoid operated electromagnetic control valve (ECV) playing an important role for car’s air conditioning control system. ECV is used in external variable displacement swash plate type compressor and controls the entire air conditioning system by means of a pulse width modulation (PWM) input signal supplying from an external source (controller). Complete form of ECV contains number of internal features like valve body, core, valve guide, plunger, guide pin, plunger spring, bellows etc. While designing the ECV; dimensions of different internal items must meet the standard requirements as it is quite challenging. In this research paper, especially the dimensioning of ECV body and its three pressure ports through which the air/refrigerant passes are considered. Here internal leakage test analysis of ECV body is being carried out from its discharge port (Pd) to crankcase port (Pc) when the guide valve is placed inside it. The experiments have made both in ordinary and digital system using different assumptions and thereafter compare the results.

Keywords: electromagnetic control valve (ECV), leakage, pressure port, valve body, valve guide

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Authors: Layal Mansour

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The aim of this paper is to identify whether oil price volatility or geopolitical risks can predict future financial stress periods or economic recessions in Kuwait. We construct the first Financial Stress Index for Kuwait (FSIK) that includes informative vulnerable indicators of the main financial sectors: the banking sector, the equities market, and the foreign exchange market. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2020, so it includes the two recent most devastating world economic crises with oil price fluctuation: the Covid-19 pandemic crisis and Ukraine-Russia War. All data are taken by the central bank of Kuwait, the World Bank, IMF, DataStream, and from Federal Reserve System St Louis. The variables are computed as the percentage growth rate, then standardized and aggregated into one index using the variance equal weights method, the most frequently used in the literature. The graphical FSIK analysis provides detailed information (by dates) to policymakers on how internal financial stability depends on internal policy and events such as government elections or resignation. It also shows how monetary authorities or internal policymakers’ decisions to relieve personal loans or increase/decrease the public budget trigger internal financial instability. The empirical analysis under vector autoregression (VAR) models shows the dynamic causal relationship between the oil price fluctuation and the Kuwaiti economy, which relies heavily on the oil price. Similarly, using vector autoregression (VAR) models to assess the impact of the global geopolitical risks on Kuwaiti financial stability, results reveal whether Kuwait is confronted with or sheltered from geopolitical risks. The Financial Stress Index serves as a guide for macroprudential regulators in order to understand the weakness of the overall Kuwaiti financial market and economy regardless of the Kuwaiti dinar strength and exchange rate stability. It helps policymakers predict future stress periods and, thus, address alternative cushions to confront future possible financial threats.

Keywords: Kuwait, financial stress index, causality test, VAR, oil price, geopolitical risks

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Authors: Junaid Asimiyu Mohammed, Olakunle Docas Tosin

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The housing environment in many developing countries is fraught with risks that have potential negative impacts on the lives of the residents. The study examined the risk factors in residential areas of two neighborhoods in Bosso Local Government Areas of Minna in Nigeria with a view to determining the level of their potential impacts. A sample of 378 households was drawn from the estimated population of 22,751 household heads. The questionnaire and direct observation were used as instruments for data collection. The data collected were analyzed using the Relative Importance Index (RII) rule to determine the level of the potential impact of the risk factors while ArcGIS was used for mapping the spatial distribution of the risks. The study established that the housing environment of Angwan Biri and El-Waziri areas of Bosso is poor and vulnerable as 26% of the houses were not habitable and 57% were only fairly habitable. The risks of epidemics, building collapse and rainstorms were evident in the area as 53% of the houses had poor ventilation; 20% of residents had no access to toilets; 47% practiced open waste dumping; 46% of the houses had cracked walls while 52% of the roofs were weak and sagging. The results of the analysis of the potential impact of the risk factors indicate a RII score of 0.528 for building collapse, 0.758 for rainstorms and 0.830 for epidemics, indicating a moderate to very high level of potential impacts. The mean RII score of 0.639 shows a significant potential impact of the risk factors. The study recommends the implementation of sanitation measures, provision of basic urban facilities and neighborhood revitalization through housing infrastructure retrofitting as measures to mitigate the risks of disasters and improve the living conditions of the residents of the study area.

Keywords: assessment, risk, residential, Nigeria

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki, Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Frantisek Odvarka

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Based on the data from the Moravian Karst, the influence of the calcite speleothem growth by selected meteorological factors was evaluated. External temperature was determined as one of the main factors influencing speleothem growth in Moravian Karst. This factor significantly influences the CO₂ concentration in soil/epikarst, and cave atmosphere in the Moravian Karst and significantly contributes to the changes in the CO₂ partial pressure differences between soil/epikarst and cave atmosphere in Moravian Karst, which determines the drip water supersaturation with respect to the calcite and quantity of precipitated calcite in the Moravian Karst cave environment. External air temperatures and cave air temperatures were measured using a COMET S3120 data logger, which can measure temperatures in the range from -30 to +80 °C with an accuracy of ± 0.4 °C. CO₂ concentrations in the cave and soils were measured with a FT A600 CO₂H Ahlborn probe (value range 0 ppmv to 10,000 ppmv, accuracy 1 ppmv), which was connected to the data logger ALMEMO 2290-4, V5 Ahlborn. The soil temperature was measured with a FHA646E1 Ahlborn probe (temperature range -20 to 70 °C, accuracy ± 0.4 °C) connected to an ALMEMO 2290-4 V5 Ahlborn data logger. The airflow velocities into and out of the cave were monitored by a FVA395 TH4 Thermo anemometer (speed range from 0.05 to 2 m s⁻¹, accuracy ± 0.04 m s⁻¹), which was connected to the ALMEMO 2590-4 V5 Ahlborn data logger for recording. The flow was measured in the lower and upper entrance of the Imperial Cave. The data were analyzed in MS Office Excel 2019 and PHREEQC.

Keywords: speleothem growth, carbon dioxide partial pressure, Moravian Karst, external temperature

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Authors: A. G. Margaryan

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Aims and Objectives: Assessment of health status and detection disorders of external respiration functions (ERF) during preventative medical examination among physicians of Armenia. Subjects and Methods: Overall, fifty-nine physicians (17 men and 42 women) were examined and spirometry was carried out. The average age of the physicians was 50 years old. The studies were conducted on the Micromedical MicroLab 3500 Spirometer. Results: 25.4% among 59 examined physicians are overweight; 22.0% of them suffer from obesity. Two physicians are currently smokers. About half of the examined physicians (50.8%) at the time of examination were diagnosed with some diseases and had different health-related problems (excluding the problems related to vision and hearing). FVC was 2.94±0.1, FEV1 – 2.64±0.1, PEF – 329.7±19.9, and FEV₁%/FVC – 89.7±1.3. Pathological changes of ERF are identified in 23 (39.0%) cases. 28.8% of physicians had first degree of restrictive disorders, 3.4% – first degree of combined obstructive/ restrictive disorders, 6.8% – second degree of combined obstructive/ restrictive disorders. Only three physicians with disorders of the ERF were diagnosed with chronic bronchitis and bronchial asthma. There were no statistically significant changes in ERF depending on the severity of obesity (P> 0.05). Conclusion: The study showed the prevalence of ERF among physicians, observing mainly mild and moderate changes in ERF parameters.

Keywords: Armenia, external respiration function, health status, physicians

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Authors: Sebastian Luber

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The study demonstrates that tail inflation risk is priced into stock returns and credit spreads. This holds true even when controlling for current and historical inflation moments. The analysis employs inflation caps and floors to obtain the distribution of future inflation under the risk-neutral measure. Credit spreads decrease as the mean and median of future inflation rise, but they respond positively to tail risks. Conversely, stocks serve as a robust hedge against future inflation. Stock returns increase with a higher mean and median of future inflation and rising inflationary tail risk, while they decrease with rising deflationary tail risk.

Keywords: asset pricing, inflation expectations, tail risk, stocks, inflation derivatives, credit

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Authors: Linda O. N. Nwabunike

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The role of internal and external efforts in the management of exploration and exploitation has been highlighted in literature. External ties support ambidexterity at different levels with, for instance: business unit ambidexterity, individual ambidexterity, organizational ambidexterity, and alliance ambidexterity. Recently studies have highlighted the combination of organization, alliance, and acquisition strategies for ambidexterity by conceptualizing ambidexterity across modes of operation. Literature still lacks detailed understanding of how these different processes are combined in the management of ambidexterity across modes of operation. This study plans to propose a conceptual model that illustrates the social processes involved in the management of ambidexterity across modes of operation. Main arguments are integrated from social structures, organizational design, and ambidexterity literature. The framework illustrates that how social capital is promoted by hierarchical relations within the organization and business relations across the boundaries of the organization. Whereby such social relations within and outside the organization are supported by the dual structures of the organization in the coordination of multiple efforts. This paper has potential to contribute to the understanding about how ambidexterity is attained.

Keywords: ambidexterity, coordination, external-ties, social-capital

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Authors: Jia-Jia He, Lin Jiang, Jin-Hua Sun

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Rigid polyurethane foam (RPU) has been extensively applied in building insulation system, yet with high flammability for being easily ignited by high temperature spark or radiative heat flux from other flaming materials or surrounding building facade. Using a cone calorimeter by Fire Testing Technology and thermal couple tree, this study systematically investigated the effect of radiative heat flux on the ignition time and characteristic temperature distribution during RPU combustion under different heat fluxes gradient (12, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 kW/m²) with spark ignition/ignition by radiation. The ignition time decreases proportionally with increase of external heat flux, meanwhile increasing the external heat flux raises the peak heat release rate and impresses on the vertical temperature distribution greatly. The critical ignition heat flux is found to be 15 and 25 kW/m² for spark ignition and radiative ignition, respectively. Based on previous experienced ignition formula, a methodology to predict ignition times in both modes has been developed theoretically. By analyzing the heat transfer mechanism around the sample surroundings, both radiation from cone calorimeter and convection flow are considered and calculated theoretically. The experimental ignition times agree well with the theoretical ones in both radiative and convective conditions; however, the observed critical ignition heat flux is higher than the calculated one under piloted-ignition mode because the heat loss process, especially in lower heat flux radiation, is not considered in this developed methodology.

Keywords: rigid polyurethane foam, cone calorimeter, ignition time, external heat flux

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Authors: Sang-Woo Han, Jong-Shik Shin

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w-Transaminase (w-TA) is broadly used for synthesizing chiral amines with a high enantiopurity. However, the reaction mechanism of w-TA has been not well studied, contrary to a-transaminase (a-TA) such as AspTA. Here, we propose in silico model on the reaction mechanism of w-TA. Based on the modeling results which showed large free energy gaps between external aldimine and quinonoid on deamination (or ketimine and quinonoid on amination), withdrawal of Ca-H seemed as a critical step which determines the reaction rate on both amination and deamination reactions, which is consistent with previous researches. Hyperconjugation was also observed in both external aldimine and ketimine which weakens Ca-H bond to elevate Ca-H abstraction.

Keywords: computational modeling, reaction intermediates, w-transaminase, in silico model

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Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa

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Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.

Keywords: just in time, lean manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, supply chain management

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Authors: Farshad Ghodoosi

Abstract:

This article analyzes the effect of supervening events in contracts. Contracts serve an important function: allocation of risks. In spite of its importance, the case law and the doctrine are messy and inconsistent. This article provides a fresh look at excuse doctrines (i.e., force majeure, impracticability, impossibility, and frustration) with a focus on force majeure clauses. The article makes the following contributions: First, it furnishes a new conceptual and theoretical framework of excuse doctrines. By distilling the decisions, it shows that excuse doctrines rests on the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. Second, it analyzes force majeure clauses used by S&P 500 companies to understand the stickiness and similarity of such clauses and the events they cover. Third, using computational and statistical tools, it analyzes US cases since 1810 in order to assess the weight given to the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. It shows that the control factor plays an important role in force majeure analysis, while the contractual interpretation is the least important factor. The Article concludes that it is the standard for control -whether the supervening event is beyond the control of the party- that determines the outcome of cases in the force majeure context and not necessarily the contractual language. This article has important implications on COVID-19-related contractual cases. Unlike the prevailing narrative that it is the language of the force majeure clause that’s determinative, this article shows that the primarily focus of the inquiry will be on whether the effects of COVID-19 have been beyond the control of the promisee. Normatively, the Article suggests that the trifactor of control, foreseeability, and contractual language are not effective for allocation of legal risks in times of crises. It puts forward a novel approach to force majeure clauses whereby that the courts should instead focus on the degree to which parties have relied on (expected) performance, in particular during the time of crisis.

Keywords: contractual risks, force majeure clauses, foreseeability, control, contractual language, computational analysis

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Authors: Abhimanyu Behera

Abstract:

Over the past few years, energy security and sustainable development have moved rapidly into the global agenda. There are two main reasons: first, the impact of high and often volatile energy prices; second, concerns over environmental sustainability particularly about the global climate. Both issues are critically important in which impressive economic growth has boosted the demand for energy and put corresponding strains on the environment. Energy security is a broad concept that focuses on energy availability and pricing. Specifically, it refers to the ability of the energy supply system i.e. suppliers, transporters, distributors and regulatory, financial and R&D institutions to deliver the amount of competitively priced energy that customers demand, within accepted standards of reliability, timeliness, quality, safety. Traditionally, energy security has been defined in the context of the geopolitical risks to external oil supplies but today it is encompassing all energy forms, all the external and internal links bringing the energy to the final consumer, and all the many ways energy supplies can be disrupted including equipment malfunctions, system design flaws, operator errors, malicious computer activities, deficient market and regulatory frameworks, corporate financial problems, labour actions, severe weather and natural events, aggressive acts (e.g. war, terrorism and sabotage), and geopolitical disruptions. In practice, the most challenging disruptions are those linked to: 1) extreme weather events; 2) mismatched electricity supply and demand; 3) regulatory failures; and 4) concentration of oil and gas resources in certain regions of the world. However, insecure energy supplies inhibit development by raising energy costs and imposing expensive cuts in services when disruptions actually occur. The energy supply sector can best advance sustainable development by producing and delivering secure and environmentally-friendly sources of energy and by increasing the efficiency of energy use. With this objective, this paper seeks to highlight the significance of energy security and sustainable development in today’s world. Moreover, it critically overhauls the major challenges towards sustainability of energy security and what are the major policies are taken to overcome these challenges by Government is lucidly explicated in this paper.

Keywords: energy, policies, security, sustainability

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Authors: Yong-Sung Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Ho-Jun Jo, Jin-O Kim

Abstract:

Home Energy Management System (HEMS) which makes the residential consumers contribute to the demand response is attracting attention in recent years. An aim of HEMS is to minimize their electricity cost by controlling the use of their appliances according to electricity price. The use of appliances in HEMS may be affected by some conditions such as external temperature and electricity price. Therefore, the user’s usage pattern of appliances should be modeled according to the external conditions, and the resultant usage pattern is related to the user’s comfortability on use of each appliances. This paper proposes a methodology to model the usage pattern based on the historical data with the copula function. Through copula function, the usage range of each appliance can be obtained and is able to satisfy the appropriate user’s comfort according to the external conditions for next day. Within the usage range, an optimal scheduling for appliances would be conducted so as to minimize an electricity cost with considering user’s comfort. Among the home appliance, electric heater (EH) is a representative appliance which is affected by the external temperature. In this paper, an optimal scheduling algorithm for an electric heater (EH) is addressed based on the method of branch and bound. As a result, scenarios for the EH usage are obtained according to user’s comfort levels and then the residential consumer would select the best scenario. The case study shows the effects of the proposed algorithm compared with the traditional operation of the EH, and it also represents impacts of the comfort level on the scheduling result.

Keywords: load scheduling, usage pattern, user’s comfort, copula function, branch and bound, electric heater

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Authors: Srinivasa Rao Gadde

Abstract:

In this article, we considered a group acceptance sampling plans for exponentiated half logistic distribution when the life-test is truncated at a pre-specified time. It is assumed that the index parameter of the exponentiated half logistic distribution is known. The design parameters such as the number of groups and the acceptance number are obtained by satisfying the producer’s and consumer’s risks at the specified quality levels in terms of medians and 10th percentiles under the assumption that the termination time and the number of items in each group are pre-fixed. Finally, an example is given to illustration the methodology.

Keywords: group acceptance sampling plan, operating characteristic, consumer and producer’s risks, truncated life-test

Procedia PDF Downloads 340