Search results for: decision criteria

Authors: Andrew White, Abigail Lowe, Kory Watkins, Hamed Akhlaghi, Nicole Winter

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The timing and appropriateness of diagnostic imaging are critical to the evaluation and management of traumatic injuries. Within the subclass of trauma patients, the prevalence of c-spine injury is less than 4%. However, the incidence of delayed diagnosis within this cohort has been documented as up to 20%, with inadequate radiological examination most cited issue. In order to assess those in which c-spine injury cannot be fully excluded based on clinical examination alone and, therefore, should undergo diagnostic imaging, a set of criteria is used to provide clinical guidance. The NEXUS (National Emergency X-Radiography Utilisation Study) criteria is a validated clinical decision-making tool used to facilitate selective c-spine radiography. The criteria allow clinicians to determine whether cervical spine imaging can be safely avoided in appropriate patients. The NEXUS criteria are widely used within the Emergency Department setting given their ease of use and relatively straightforward application and are used in the Victorian State Trauma System’s guidelines. This audit utilized retrospective data collection to examine the concordance of c-spine imaging in trauma patients to that of the NEXUS criteria and assess compliance with state guidance on diagnostic imaging in trauma. Of the 183 patients that presented with trauma to the head, neck, or face (244 excluded due to incorrect triage), 98 did not undergo imaging of the c-spine. Out of those 98, 44% fulfilled at least one of the NEXUS criteria, meaning the c-spine could not be clinically cleared as per the current guidelines. The criterion most met was intoxication, comprising 42% (18 of 43), with midline spinal tenderness (or absence of documentation of this) the second most common with 23% (10 of 43). Intoxication being the most met criteria is significant but not unexpected given the cohort of patients seen at St Vincent’s and within many emergency departments in general. Given these patients will always meet NEXUS criteria, an element of clinical judgment is likely needed, or concurrent use of the Canadian C-Spine Rules to exclude the need for imaging. Midline tenderness as a met criterion was often in the context of poor or absent documentation relating to this, emphasizing the importance of clear and accurate assessments. The distracting injury was identified in 7 out of the 43 patients; however, only one of these patients exhibited a thoracic injury (T11 compression fracture), with the remainder comprising injuries to the extremities – some studies suggest that C-spine imaging may not be required in the evaluable blunt trauma patient despite distracting injuries in any body regions that do not involve the upper chest. This emphasises the need for standardised definitions for distracting injury, at least at a departmental/regional level. The data highlights the currently poor application of the NEXUS guidelines, with likely common themes throughout emergency departments, highlighting the need for further education regarding implementation and potential refinement/clarification of criteria. Of note, there appeared to be no significant differences between levels of experience with respect to inappropriately clearing the c-spine clinically with respect to the guidelines.

Keywords: imaging, guidelines, emergency medicine, audit

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Karrar Raoof Kareem Kamoona, Enas Fathi Taher AlHares, Zeynep Isik

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The various disciplines in the construction industry and the co-existence of the people in the various disciplines are what builds well-developed, closely-knit interpersonal skills at various hierarchical levels thus leading to a varied way of leadership. The varied decision making aspects during the lifecycle of a project include: autocratic, participatory and last but not least, free-rein. We can classify some of the decision makers in the construction industry in a hierarchical manner as follows: project executive, project manager, superintendent, office engineer and finally the field engineer. This survey looked at how decisions are made during the construction period by the key stakeholders in the project. From the paper it is evident that the three decision making aspects can be used at different times or at times together in order to bring out the best leadership decision. A blend of different leadership styles should be used to enhance the success rate during the project lifecycle.

Keywords: leadership style, construction, decision-making, built environment

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Authors: Yu-Chih Wang, Chia-Yu Lai, Hsiao-Tien Liu, Yi-Ju Chen, Shao-Bin Cheng

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Liver transplant has been one of the curative treatment options for hepatocellular carcinomaunder certain oncological conditions. Two of the most validated criteria are from Milan in1996 and USCF in 2001, suggesting number and size limits of tumor without vascularinvasion or distant metastasis. We performed a retrospective cohort study of hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing livertransplant between August 2003 and December 2020 in our institute. Clinical andpathological characteristic, survival outcome, and recurrent pattern were analysed.UCSF criteria was applied for living donor transplantation, and Milan criteria was applied for deceased donor transplantation. Of 180 total patients, 52 cases(28.8%) with diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma, including26 living donor(LD) and 26 deceased donor(DD) liver transplant. Complete pathologicalremission was significantly more in the DD group(p=0.009). Pathological reports showed that30.8% of DD group exceeded Milan criteria, and 19.2% of LD group exceeded UCSFcriteria.After a median follow-up of 52.2 months, the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year overall survival was 87.6%, 74.1%, and 71.8%, respectively.Meanwhile, progression-free survival was 93.1%, 85.7%, and 81.6% for 1, 3, and 5-year, respectively, similar to that in Mazzaferro et al, 1996. We concluded that Liver transplant could be applied cautiously in expanded criteria for patent withhepatocellular carcinoma.

Keywords: liver transplant, milan criteria, UCSF criteria, living donor transplantation, deceased donor transplantation

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Noppadol Sritragool

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The objectives of this research were to investigate the decision of passengers who choose to fry with low cost airlines and to study marketing factors which have the influence to the decision to choose each low cost airlines. This paper was a quantitative research technique. A total of 400 low cost airlines’ passengers were interviewed via English questionnaire to collect the respondents’ opinions. The findings revealed that respondents were male and female at a similar proportion. The majority had at least an undergraduate degree, have a lower management level jobs, and had income in the range of 25,000 -35,000 baht per month.. In addition, the findings also revealed that the first three marketing factors influencing the decision of the respondents to choose low-cost airlines were low price, direct flight, and online system.

Keywords: decision to choose, marketing factors, low-cost airlines

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Authors: H.-H. Doh, J.-M. Yu, Y.-J. Kwon, J.-H. Shin, H.-W. Kim, S.-H. Nam, D.-H. Lee

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This paper suggests a decision tree based approach for flexible job shop scheduling with multiple process plans, i. e. each job can be processed through alternative operations, each of which can be processed on alternative machines. The main decision variables are: (a) selecting operation/machine pair; and (b) sequencing the jobs assigned to each machine. As an extension of the priority scheduling approach that selects the best priority rule combination after many simulation runs, this study suggests a decision tree based approach in which a decision tree is used to select a priority rule combination adequate for a specific system state and hence the burdens required for developing simulation models and carrying out simulation runs can be eliminated. The decision tree based scheduling approach consists of construction and scheduling modules. In the construction module, a decision tree is constructed using a four-stage algorithm, and in the scheduling module, a priority rule combination is selected using the decision tree. To show the performance of the decision tree based approach suggested in this study, a case study was done on a flexible job shop with reconfigurable manufacturing cells and a conventional job shop, and the results are reported by comparing it with individual priority rule combinations for the objectives of minimizing total flow time and total tardiness.

Keywords: flexible job shop scheduling, decision tree, priority rules, case study

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Authors: Benlakhdar Mohamed Larbi, Yagoub Asma

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Purpose: This study aims at highlighting the significance and importance of utilizing marketing information system (MKIS) on decision-making, by clarifying the need for quick and efficient decision-making due to time saving and preventing of duplication of work. Design, methodology, approach: The study shows the roles of each part of MKIS for developing marketing strategy, which present a real challenge to individuals and institutions in an era characterized by uncertainty and clarifying the importance of each part separately, depending on decision type and the nature of the situation. The empirical research method was evaluated by specialized experts, conducted by means of questionnaires. Correlation analysis was employed to test the validity of the procedure. Results: The empirical study findings confirmed positive relationships between the level of utilizing and adopting ‘decision support system and marketing intelligence’ and the success of an organizational decision-making, and provide the organization with a competitive advantage as it allows the organization to solve problems. Originality/value: The study offer better understanding of performance- increasing market share as an organizational decision making based on marketing information system.

Keywords: database, marketing research, marketing intelligence, decision support system, decision-making

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Authors: Rolla Monib, Chris Ian Goodier, Alistair Gibb

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This paper aims to investigate decision support strategies in the EC sector to determine the most appropriate degree of modularization. This is achieved through three oil and gas (O&G) and two power plant case studies via semi-structured interviews (n=59 and n=27, respectively), analysis of project documents, and case study-specific semi-structured validation interviews (n=12 and n=8). New terminology to distinguish degrees of modularization is proposed, along with a decision-making support checklist and a diagrammatic decision-making support figure. Results indicate that the EC sub-sectors were substantially more satisfied with the application of component, structural, or traditional modularization compared with system modularization for some types of modules. Key drivers for decisions on the degree of modularization vary across module types. This paper can help the EC sector determine the most suitable degree of modularization via a decision-making support strategy.

Keywords: modularization, engineering construction, case study, decision support

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Authors: Rawan A. Abdelrazeq, Ahmed M. Khalafallah, Nabil A. Kartam

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Selection of competent contractors for construction projects is usually accomplished through competitive bidding or negotiated contracting in which the contract bid price is the basic criterion for selection. The evaluation of contractor’s safety performance is still not a typical criterion in the selection process, despite the existence of various safety prequalification procedures. There is a critical need for practical and automated systems that enable owners and decision makers to evaluate contractor safety performance, among other important contractor selection criteria. These systems should ultimately favor safety-conscious contractors to be selected by the virtue of their past good safety records and current safety programs. This paper presents an exploratory sequential mixed-methods approach to develop a framework for an automated decision support system that evaluates contractor safety performance based on a multitude of indicators and metrics that have been identified through a comprehensive review of construction safety research, and a survey distributed to domain experts. The framework is developed in three phases: (1) determining the indicators that depict contractor current and past safety performance; (2) soliciting input from construction safety experts regarding the identified indicators, their metrics, and relative significance; and (3) designing a decision support system using relational database models to integrate the identified indicators and metrics into a system that assesses and rates the safety performance of contractors. The proposed automated system is expected to hold several advantages including: (1) reducing the likelihood of selecting contractors with poor safety records; (2) enhancing the odds of completing the project safely; and (3) encouraging contractors to exert more efforts to improve their safety performance and practices in order to increase their bid winning opportunities which can lead to significant safety improvements in the construction industry. This should prove useful to decision makers and researchers, alike, and should help improve the safety record of the construction industry.

Keywords: construction safety, contractor selection, decision support system, relational database

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Authors: M. Johnson, R. Faggian, V. Sposito

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A participatory and engaged approach is key in connecting agricultural managers to sustainable agricultural systems to support and optimize production in Victoria’s food bowl. A sustainable intensification (SI) approach is well documented globally, but participation rates amongst Victorian farmers is fragmentary, and key outcomes and implementation strategies are poorly understood. Improvement in decision-support management tools and a greater understanding of the productivity gains available upon implementation of SI is necessary. This paper reviews the current understanding and uptake of SI practices amongst farmers in one of Victoria’s premier food producing regions, the Goulburn Broken; and it spatially analyses the potential for this region to adapt to climate change and optimize food production. A Geographical Information Systems (GIS) approach is taken to develop an interactive decision-support tool that can be accessible to on-ground agricultural managers. The tool encompasses multiple criteria analysis (MCA) that identifies factors during the construction phase of the tool, using expert witnesses and regional knowledge, framed within an Analytical Hierarchy Process. Given the complexities of the interrelations between each of the key outcomes, this participatory approach, in which local realities and factors inform the key outcomes and help to strategies for a particular region, results in a robust strategy for sustainably intensifying production in key food producing regions. The creation of an interactive, locally embedded, decision-support management and education tool can help to close the gap between farmer knowledge and production, increase on-farm adoption of sustainable farming strategies and techniques, and optimize farm productivity.

Keywords: agriculture, decision-support management tool, Geographic Information System, GIS, sustainable intensification

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Authors: Mariam Shah

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Stereotypes are not generally considered to be an acceptable influence upon any decision making process, particularly those involving judicial decision making outcomes. Yet, we are confronted with an uncomfortable truth that stereotypes may be operating to influence judicial outcomes. Variances in sentencing outcomes are not easily explained away by criminological, psychological, or sociological theorem, but may be answered via qualitative research produced within the field of phenomenology. This paper will examine the current literature pertaining to the effect of stereotypes on the criminal justice system within the UK, and will also discuss what the implications are for stereotypical influences upon decision making in the criminal justice system. This paper will give particular focus to shoplifting offences dealt with in UK criminal courts, but this research has long reaching implications for the criminal process more generally.

Keywords: decision making, judicial decision making, phenomenology, shoplifting, stereotypes

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Authors: Amit Kumar, Rajdeep Chakrabarty, Ganesh Gupta

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This paper illustrates the detailed accreditation process of Accreditation Board of Engineering and Technology (ABET) for accrediting engineering and Technology programs. ABET is a non-governmental agency that accredits engineering and technology, applied and natural sciences, and computing sciences programs. ABET was founded on 10th May 1932 and was founded by Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineering. International industries accept ABET accredited institutes having the highest standards in their academic programs. In this accreditation, there are eight criteria in general; criterion 1 describes the student outcome evaluations, criteria 2 measures the program's educational objectives, criteria 3 is the student outcome calculated from the marks obtained by students, criteria 4 establishes continuous improvement, criteria 5 focus on curriculum of the institute, criteria 6 is about faculties of this institute, criteria 7 measures the facilities provided by the institute and finally, criteria 8 focus on institutional support towards staff of the institute. In this paper, we focused on the calculative part of each criterion with equations and suitable examples, the files and documentation required for each criterion, and the total workflow of the process. The references and the values used to illustrate the calculations are all taken from the samples provided at ABET's official website. In the final section, we also discuss the criterion-wise score weightage followed by evaluation with timeframe and deadlines.

Keywords: Engineering Accreditation Committee, Computing Accreditation Committee, performance indicator, Program Educational Objective, ABET Criterion 1 to 7, IEEE, National Board of Accreditation, MOOCS, Board of Studies, stakeholders, course objective, program outcome, articulation, attainment, CO-PO mapping, CO-PO-SO mapping, PDCA cycle, degree certificates, course files, course catalogue

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Authors: Badrun Taman

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This study aims to review the use of the Bengkulu Provincial Government Mess as the location of rukyatul hilal because its determination has not been carried out scientifically. There are three things that will be analyzed, namely geographical-astronomical conditions, the suitability of the location with ideal criteria, and the determination of the location of rukyatul hilal in accordance with regional conditions based on the results of the study. The research method used is qualitative with an astronomical geographical approach. The results showed that the factor that strengthened the disturbance from the weather aspect was the western sky horizon in the form of the Indian Ocean sea level. The potential for geographical disturbances on this horizon is high sea waves, relatively high sea breezes, and more seawater vapor due to sea surface temperatures and high air humidity. This study found new criteria for determining the location of the observation crescent. The criteria is the western horizon is not sea level (especially the Indian Ocean).

Keywords: criteria, location, Rukyatul Hilal, tropics, Indian ocean

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Authors: Till Gramberg, Max Kellner, Erwin Gross

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This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the topic of smart services and IIoT-Platforms, focusing on their selection and prioritization in manufacturing organizations. First, a literature review is conducted to provide a basic understanding of the current state of research in the area of smart services. Based on discussed and established definitions, a definition approach for this paper is developed. In addition, value propositions for smart services are identified based on the literature and expert interviews. Furthermore, the general requirements for the provision of smart services are presented. Subsequently, existing approaches for the selection and development of smart services are identified and described. In order to determine the requirements for the selection of smart services, expert opinions from successful companies that have already implemented smart services are collected through semi-structured interviews. Based on the results, criteria for the evaluation of existing methods are derived. The existing methods are then evaluated according to the identified criteria. Furthermore, a novel method for the selection of smart services in manufacturing companies is developed, taking into account the identified criteria and the existing approaches. The developed concept for the method is verified in expert interviews. The method includes a collection of relevant smart services identified in the literature. The actual relevance of the use cases in the industrial environment was validated in an online survey. The required data and sensors are assigned to the smart service use cases. The value proposition of the use cases is evaluated in an expert workshop using different indicators. Based on this, a comparison is made between the identified value proposition and the required data, leading to a prioritization process. The prioritization process follows an established procedure for evaluating technical decision-making processes. In addition to the technical requirements, the prioritization process includes other evaluation criteria such as the economic benefit, the conformity of the new service offering with the company strategy, or the customer retention enabled by the smart service. Finally, the method is applied and validated in an industrial environment. The results of these experiments are critically reflected upon and an outlook on future developments in the area of smart services is given. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the selection and prioritization process as well as the technical considerations associated with smart service implementation in manufacturing organizations. The proposed method serves as a valuable guide for decision makers, helping them to effectively select the most appropriate smart services for their specific organizational needs.

Keywords: smart services, IIoT, industrie 4.0, IIoT-platform, big data

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: M. Yosofi, S. Ezeddini, A. Ollivier, V. Lavaste, C. Mayousse

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Additive manufacturing processes have changed significantly in a wide range of industries and their application progressed from rapid prototyping to production of end-use products. However, their environmental impact is still a rather open question. In order to support the growth of this technology in the industrial sector, environmental aspects should be considered and predictive models may help monitor and reduce the environmental footprint of the processes. This work presents predictive models based on a previously developed methodology for the environmental impact evaluation combined with a technical and economical assessment. Here we applied the methodology to the Fused Deposition Modeling process. First, we present the predictive models relative to different types of machines. Then, we present a decision-making tool designed to identify the optimum manufacturing strategy regarding technical, economic, and environmental criteria.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, decision-makings, environmental impact, predictive models

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Authors: A. Esra İdemen, Sinan M. Şener, Emrah Acar

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The technological paradigm of the disaster management field, especially in the case of governmental intervention strategies, is generally based on rapid and flexible accommodation solutions. From various technical solution patterns used to address the immediate housing needs of disaster victims, the adaptive re-use of existing buildings can be considered to be both low-cost and practical. However, there is a scarcity of analytical methods to screen, select and adapt buildings to help decision makers in cases of emergency. Following an extensive literature review, this paper aims to highlight key points and problem areas associated with the adaptive re-use of buildings within the disaster management context. In other disciplines such as real estate management, the adaptive re-use potential (ARP) of existing buildings is typically based on the prioritization of a set of technical and non-technical criteria which are then weighted to arrive at an economically viable investment decision. After a disaster, however, the assessment of the ARP of buildings requires consideration of different/additional layers of analysis which stem from general disaster management principles and the peculiarities of different types of disasters, as well as of their victims. In this paper, a discussion of the development of an adaptive re-use potential (ARP) assessment model is presented. It is thought that governmental and non-governmental decision makers who are required to take quick decisions to accommodate displaced masses following disasters are likely to benefit from the implementation of such a model.

Keywords: adaptive re-use of buildings, disaster management, temporary housing, assessment model

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Authors: Gopinath Rathod, Vinod Puranik

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Sustainability is regarded as a key concept for survival in the competitive scenario. Industrial risk and diversification of risk type’s increases with industrial developments. In the context of sustainable manufacturing, the evaluation of risk is difficult because of the incomplete information and multiple indicators. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Method (FMADM) has been used with a three level hierarchical decision making model to evaluate aggregate risk for sustainable manufacturing projects. A case study has been presented to reflect the risk characteristics in sustainable manufacturing projects.

Keywords: sustainable manufacturing, decision making, aggregate risk, fuzzy logic, fuzzy multiple attribute decision method

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Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Jia-Shu Li

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To design a product with the given product requirement and design objective, there can be alternative ways to propose the detailed design specifications of the product. In the design modeling stage, alternative design cases with detailed specifications can be modeled to fulfill the product requirement and design objective. Therefore, in the design evaluation stage, it is required to perform an evaluation of the alternative design cases for deciding the final design. The purpose of this research is to develop a product evaluation model for evaluating the alternative design cases by integrated evaluating the criteria of functional design, Kansei design, and design for supply chain. The criteria in the functional design group include primary function, expansion function, improved function, and new function. The criteria in the Kansei group include geometric shape, dimension, surface finish, and layout. The criteria in the design for supply chain group include material, manufacturing process, assembly, and supply chain operation. From the point of view of value and cost, the criteria in the functional design group and Kansei design group represent the design value of the product. The criteria in the design for supply chain group represent the supply chain and manufacturing cost of the product. It is required to evaluate the design value and the supply chain cost to determine the final design. For the purpose of evaluating the criteria in the three criteria groups, a fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) method is presented to evaluate a weighted index by calculating the total relational values among the three groups. A method using the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is used to compare and rank the design alternative cases according to the weighted index using the total relational values of the criteria. The final decision of a design case can be determined by using the ordered ranking. For example, the design case with the top ranking can be selected as the final design case. Based on the criteria in the evaluation, the design objective can be achieved with a combined and weighted effect of the design value and manufacturing cost. An example product is demonstrated and illustrated in the presentation. It shows that the design evaluation model is useful for integrated evaluation of functional design, Kansei design, and design for supply chain to determine the best design case and achieve the design objective.

Keywords: design for supply chain, design evaluation, functional design, Kansei design, fuzzy analytic network process, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution

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Authors: Tatsuya Otoshi, Masayuki Murata

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With the development and diversification of applications on the Internet, applications that require high responsiveness, such as video streaming, are becoming mainstream. Application responsiveness is not only a matter of communication delay but also a matter of time required to grasp changes in network conditions. The tradeoff between accuracy and measurement time is a challenge in network control. We people make countless decisions all the time, and our decisions seem to resolve tradeoffs between time and accuracy. When making decisions, people are known to make appropriate choices based on relatively small samples. Although there have been various studies on models of human decision-making, a model that integrates various cognitive biases, called ”quantum decision-making,” has recently attracted much attention. However, the modeling of small samples has not been examined much so far. In this paper, we extend the model of quantum decision-making to model decision-making with a small sample. In the proposed model, the state is updated by value-based probability amplitude amplification. By analytically obtaining a lower bound on the number of samples required for decision-making, we show that decision-making with a small number of samples is feasible.

Keywords: quantum decision making, small sample, MPEG-DASH, Grover's algorithm

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Authors: Zahid Khalil, Saad Ul Haque, Asif Khan

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Decision making about identifying suitable sites for any project by considering different parameters is difficult. Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) can make it easy for those projects. This technology has proved to be an efficient and adequate in acquiring the desired information. In this study, GIS and MCA were employed to identify the suitable sites for small dams in Dadu Tehsil, Sindh. The GIS software is used to create all the spatial parameters for the analysis. The parameters that derived are slope, drainage density, rainfall, land use / land cover, soil groups, Curve Number (CN) and runoff index with a spatial resolution of 30m. The data used for deriving above layers include 30-meter resolution SRTM DEM, Landsat 8 imagery, and rainfall from National Centre of Environment Prediction (NCEP) and soil data from World Harmonized Soil Data (WHSD). Land use/Land cover map is derived from Landsat 8 using supervised classification. Slope, drainage network and watershed are delineated by terrain processing of DEM. The Soil Conservation Services (SCS) method is implemented to estimate the surface runoff from the rainfall. Prior to this, SCS-CN grid is developed by integrating the soil and land use/land cover raster. These layers with some technical and ecological constraints are assigned weights on the basis of suitability criteria. The pairwise comparison method, also known as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is taken into account as MCA for assigning weights on each decision element. All the parameters and group of parameters are integrated using weighted overlay in GIS environment to produce suitable sites for the Dams. The resultant layer is then classified into four classes namely, best suitable, suitable, moderate and less suitable. This study reveals a contribution to decision-making about suitable sites analysis for small dams using geospatial data with minimal amount of ground data. This suitability maps can be helpful for water resource management organizations in determination of feasible rainwater harvesting structures (RWH).

Keywords: Remote sensing, GIS, AHP, RWH

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki, Anastasia Kalamakidou

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Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in the decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Decision makers and stakeholders need to define the framework and the outputs of the decision process taking into account the project characteristics, the business uncertainties, and the different expectations. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross-border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analysed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making the framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria.

Keywords: system of system decision making, managing decisions for transport projects, decision support framework, defining decision process

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Authors: Amritpal Slaich, Mark Elshaw

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This paper explores the development of a decision support framework for the introduction of business intelligence (BI) through operational research techniques for application by SMEs. Aligned with the goals of the new Midlands Enterprise Initiative of improving the skill levels of the Midlands workforce and addressing high levels of regional unemployment, we have developed a framework to increase the level of business intelligence used by SMEs to improve business decision-making. Many SMEs in the Midlands fail due to the lack of high quality decision making. Our framework outlines how universities can: engage with SMEs in the use of BI through operational research techniques; develop appropriate and easy to use Excel spreadsheet models; and make use of a process to allow SMEs to feedback their findings of the models. Future work will determine how well the framework performs in getting SMEs to apply BI to improve their decision-making performance.

Keywords: SMEs, decision support framework, business intelligence, operational research techniques

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Authors: Katejarinporn Chaiya, Thawit Janbanklong

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The purposes of this study were to design and find users’ satisfaction after using the decision support system for tourism in the Northern part of Thailand, which can provide tourists with touristic information and plan their personal voyage. Such information can be retrieved systematically based on personal budget and provinces. The samples of this study were five experts and users: 30 "white collars" in Bangkok. This decision support system was designed via ASP.NET. Its database was developed by using MySQL, for administrators to effectively manage the database. The application outcome revealed that the innovation works properly as sought in objectives. Specialists and white collars in Bangkok have evaluated the decision support system; the result was satisfactorily positive.

Keywords: decision Support System, ASP.NET, MySQL, white collars

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Authors: Asma Ben Yaghlane, Mohamed Naceur Azaiez

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In this paper, we briefly introduce the concept of Poisson attacks in the case of defense/attack strategies where attacks are assumed to be continuous. We suggest a game model in which the attacker will combine both criteria of a sufficient confidence level of a successful attack and a reasonably small size of the estimation error in order to launch an attack. Here, estimation error arises from assessing the system failure upon attack using aggregate data at the system level. The corresponding error is referred to as aggregation error. On the other hand, the defender will attempt to deter attack by making one or both criteria inapplicable. The defender will build his/her strategy by both strengthening the targeted system and increasing the size of error. We will formulate the defender problem based on appropriate optimization models. The attacker will opt for a Bayesian updating in assessing the impact on the improvement made by the defender. Then, the attacker will evaluate the feasibility of the attack before making the decision of whether or not to launch it. We will provide illustrations to better explain the process.

Keywords: attacker, defender, game theory, information

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Authors: Irina Canco, Amela Malaj

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It is evident that there exists a relationship between supply chain management and business performance. Surveys have showed that in many cases the manager's beliefs and expectations on supply chain management do not match the reality of the business. In this context, the study of supply chain issues is of particular importance and interest considering specifically the current period. The economic problems of this period, are present in Albania as well. The complexity of the supply chain focuses on order fulfilment. Therefore, in this paper, attention will be paid to the impact of supply chain management on business performance. The objective of the paper is to find a relationship between the good supply chain management and business performance. This research is based on the results of surveys referring to the experience of successful businesses on issues related to sustainable supply chain management and its synchronization with the provision of products and services required by the final customers. This study clearly evidenced the impact of the speed of meeting customer requirements on AMAZONA performance. This was also confirmed mathematically through one of the decision criteria in conditions of uncertainty—Laplace criterion.

Keywords: supply chain management, AMAZONA, business performance, Laplace criteria

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Authors: T. Penkova, A. Korobko, V. Nicheporchuk, L. Nozhenkova, A. Metus

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This paper presents an approach of on-line control of the state of technosphere and environment objects based on the integration of Data Warehouse, OLAP and Expert systems technologies. It looks at the structure and content of data warehouse that provides consolidation and storage of monitoring data. There is a description of OLAP-models that provide a multidimensional analysis of monitoring data and dynamic analysis of principal parameters of controlled objects. The authors suggest some criteria of emergency risk assessment using expert knowledge about danger levels. It is demonstrated now some of the proposed solutions could be adopted in territorial decision making support systems. Operational control allows authorities to detect threat, prevent natural and anthropogenic emergencies and ensure a comprehensive safety of territory.

Keywords: decision making support systems, emergency risk assessment, natural and anthropogenic safety, on-line control, territory

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Authors: Anna Sikharulidze, Gia Sirbiladze

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For the evaluation of unreliability levels of movement on the closed routes in the vehicle routing problem, the fuzzy operators family is constructed. The interactions between routing factors in extreme conditions on the roads are considered. A multi-criteria decision-making model (MCDM) is constructed. Constructed aggregations are based on the Choquet integral and the associated probability class of a fuzzy measure. Propositions on the correctness of the extension are proved. Connections between the operators and the compositions of dual triangular norms are described. The conjugate connections between the constructed operators are shown. Operators reflect interactions among all the combinations of the factors in the fuzzy MCDM process. Several variants of constructed operators are used in the decision-making problem regarding the assessment of unreliability and possibility levels of movement on closed routes.

Keywords: vehicle routing problem, associated probabilities of a fuzzy measure, choquet integral, fuzzy aggregation operator

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Authors: Juan M. Rodriguez-Diaz

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The precision of parameter estimators in the Gaussian linear model is traditionally accounted by the variance-covariance matrix of the asymptotic distribution. However, this measure can underestimate the true variance, specially for small samples. Traditionally, optimal design theory pays attention to this variance through its relationship with the model's information matrix. For this reason it seems convenient, at least in some cases, adapt the optimality criteria in order to get the best designs for the actual variance structure, otherwise the loss in efficiency of the designs obtained with the traditional approach may be very important.

Keywords: correlated observations, information matrix, optimality criteria, variance-covariance matrix

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Authors: Salima Smiti, Ines Gasmi, Makram Soui

Abstract:

Credit risk is the most important issue for financial institutions. Its assessment becomes an important task used to predict defaulter customers and classify customers as good or bad payers. To this objective, numerous techniques have been applied for credit risk assessment. However, to our knowledge, several evaluation techniques are black-box models such as neural networks, SVM, etc. They generate applicants’ classes without any explanation. In this paper, we propose to assess credit risk using rules classification method. Our output is a set of rules which describe and explain the decision. To this end, we will compare seven classification algorithms (JRip, Decision Table, OneR, ZeroR, Fuzzy Rule, PART and Genetic programming (GP)) where the goal is to find the best rules satisfying many criteria: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The obtained results confirm the efficiency of the GP algorithm for German and Australian datasets compared to other rule-based techniques to predict the credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, classification algorithms, data mining, rule extraction

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Authors: Hritik Bhattarai, Vivek Dumre, Ananya Neupane, Poonam Koirala, Anjali Singh

Abstract:

The availability of clean and reliable groundwater is essential for the sustainment of human and environmental health. Groundwater is a crucial resource that contributes significantly to the total annual supply. However, over-exploitation has depleted groundwater availability considerably and led to some land subsidence. Determining the potential zone of groundwater is vital for protecting water quality and managing groundwater systems. Groundwater potential zones are marked with the assistance of Geographic Information System techniques. During the study, a standard methodology was proposed to determine groundwater potential using an integration of GIS and AHP techniques. When choosing the prospective groundwater zone, accurate information was generated to get parameters such as geology, slope, soil, temperature, rainfall, drainage density, and lineament density. However, identifying and mapping potential groundwater zones remains challenging due to aquifer systems' complex and dynamic nature. Then, ArcGIS was incorporated with a weighted overlay, and appropriate ranks were assigned to each parameter group. Through data analysis, MCDA was applied to weigh and prioritize the different parameters based on their relative impact on groundwater potential. There were three probable groundwater zones: low potential, moderate potential, and high potential. Our analysis showed that the central and lower parts of the Bagmati River Basin have the highest potential, i.e., 7.20% of the total area. In contrast, the northern and eastern parts have lower potential. The identified potential zones can be used to guide future groundwater exploration and management strategies in the region.

Keywords: groundwater, geographic information system, analytic hierarchy processes, multi-criteria decision analysis, Bagmati

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Authors: Amin Padash, Gholam Reza Nabi Bid Hendi, Hassan Hoveidi

Abstract:

Purpose: The aim of this research is developing a model for green management based on Health, Safety and Environmental Management System. An HSE-MS can be a powerful tool for organizations to both improve their environmental, health and safety performance, and enhance their business efficiency to green management. Model: The model is developed in this study can be used for industries as guidelines for implementing green management issue by considering Health, Safety and Environmental Management System. Case Study: The Pars Special Economic / Energy Zone Organization on behalf of Iran’s Petroleum Ministry and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) manages and develops the South and North oil and gas fields in the region. Methodology: This research according to objective is applied and based on implementing is descriptive and also prescription. We used technique MCDM (Multiple Criteria Decision-Making) for determining the priorities of the factors. Based on process approach the model consists of the following steps and components: first factors involved in green issues are determined. Based on them a framework is considered. Then with using MCDM (Multiple Criteria Decision-Making) algorithms (TOPSIS) the priority of basic variables are determined. The authors believe that the proposed model and results of this research can aid industries managers to implement green subjects according to Health, Safety and Environmental Management System in a more efficient and effective manner. Finding and conclusion: Basic factors involved in green issues and their weights can be the main finding. Model and relation between factors are the other finding of this research. The case is considered Petrochemical Company for promoting the system of ecological industry thinking.

Keywords: Fuzzy-AHP method , green management, health, safety and environmental management system, MCDM technique, TOPSIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 411