Search results for: supply and demand prediction
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 7097

Search results for: supply and demand prediction

4757 Microbial Fuel Cells: Performance and Applications

Authors: Andrea Pietrelli, Vincenzo Ferrara, Bruno Allard, Francois Buret, Irene Bavasso, Nicola Lovecchio, Francesca Costantini, Firas Khaled

Abstract:

This paper aims to show some applications of microbial fuel cells (MFCs), an energy harvesting technique, as clean power source to supply low power device for application like wireless sensor network (WSN) for environmental monitoring. Furthermore, MFC can be used directly as biosensor to analyse parameters like pH and temperature or arranged in form of cluster devices in order to use as small power plant. An MFC is a bioreactor that converts energy stored in chemical bonds of organic matter into electrical energy, through a series of reactions catalysed by microorganisms. We have developed a lab-scale terrestrial microbial fuel cell (TMFC), based on soil that acts as source of bacteria and flow of nutrient and a lab-scale waste water microbial fuel cell (WWMFC), where waste water acts as flow of nutrient and bacteria. We performed large series of tests to exploit the capability as biosensor. The pH value has strong influence on the open circuit voltage (OCV) delivered from TMFCs. We analyzed three condition: test A and B were filled with same soil but changing pH from 6 to 6.63, test C was prepared using a different soil with a pH value of 6.3. Experimental results clearly show how with higher pH value a higher OCV was produced; indeed reactors are influenced by different values of pH which increases the voltage in case of a higher pH value until the best pH value of 7 is achieved. The influence of pH on OCV of lab-scales WWMFC was analyzed at pH value of 6.5, 7, 7.2, 7.5 and 8. WWMFCs are influenced from temperature more than TMFCs. We tested the power performance of WWMFCs considering four imposed values of ambient temperature. Results show how power performance increase proportionally with higher temperature values, doubling the output power from 20° to 40°. The best value of power produced from our lab-scale TMFC was equal to 310 μW using peaty soil, at 1KΩ, corresponding to a current of 0.5 mA. A TMFC can supply proper energy to low power devices of a WSN by means of the design of three stages scheme of an energy management system, which adapts voltage level of TMFC to those required by a WSN node, as 3.3V. Using a commercial DC/DC boost converter, that needs an input voltage of 700 mV, the current source of 0.5 mA, charges a capacitor of 6.8 mF until it will have accumulated an amount of charge equal to 700 mV in a time of 10 s. The output stage includes an output switch that close the circuit after a time of 10s + 1.5ms because the converter can boost the voltage from 0.7V to 3.3V in 1.5 ms. Furthermore, we tested in form of clusters connected in series up to 20 WWMFCs, we have obtained a high voltage value as output, around 10V, but low current value. MFC can be considered a suitable clean energy source to be used to supply low power devices as a WSN node or to be used directly as biosensor.

Keywords: energy harvesting, low power electronics, microbial fuel cell, terrestrial microbial fuel cell, waste-water microbial fuel cell, wireless sensor network

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4756 The Driving Force for Taiwan Social Innovation Business Model Transformation: A Case Study of Social Innovation Internet Celebrity Training Project

Authors: Shih-Jie Ma, Jui-Hsu Hsiao, Ming-Ying Hsieh, Shin-Yan Yang, Chun-Han Yeh, Kuo-Chun Su

Abstract:

In Taiwan, social enterprises and non-profit organizations (NPOs) are not familiar with innovative business models, such as live streaming. In 2019, a brand new course called internet celebrity training project is introduced to them by the Social Innovation Lab. The Goal of this paper is to evaluate the effect of this project, to explore the role of new technology (internet live stream) in business process management (BPM), and to analyze how live stream programs can assist social enterprises in creating new business models. Social Innovation, with the purpose to solve social issues in innovative ways, is one of the most popular topics in the world. Social Innovation Lab was established in 2017 by Executive Yuan in Taiwan. The vision of Social Innovation Lab is to exploit technology, innovation and experimental methods to solve social issues, and to maximize the benefits from government investment. Social Innovation Lab aims at creating a platform for both supply and demand sides of social issues, to make social enterprises and start-ups communicate with each other, and to build an eco-system in which stakeholders can make a social impact. Social Innovation Lab keeps helping social enterprises and NPOs to gain better publicity and to enhance competitiveness by facilitating digital transformation. In this project, Social Innovation Lab exerted the influence of social media such as YouTube and Facebook, to make social enterprises and start-ups adjust their business models by using the live stream of social media, which becomes one of the tools to expand their market and diversify their sales channels. Internet live stream training courses were delivered in different regions of Taiwan in 2019, including Taitung, Taichung, Kaohsiung and Hualien. Through these courses, potential groups and enterprises were cultivated to become so-called internet celebrities. With their concern about social issues in mind, these internet celebrities know how to manipulate social media to make a social impact in different fields, such as aboriginal people, food and agriculture, LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability), environmental protection and senior citizens. Participants of live stream training courses in Taiwan are selected to take in-depth interviews and questionnaire surveys. Results indicate that the digital transformation process of social enterprises and NPOs can be successful by implementing business process reengineering, a significant change made by social innovation internet celebrities. Therefore, this project can be the new driving force to facilitate the business model transformation in Taiwan.

Keywords: business process management, digital transformation, live stream, social innovation

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4755 Scheduling Residential Daily Energy Consumption Using Bi-criteria Optimization Methods

Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Tzu-hsun Yen

Abstract:

Because of the long-term commitment to net zero carbon emission, utility companies include more renewable energy supply, which generates electricity with time and weather restrictions. This leads to time-of-use electricity pricing to reflect the actual cost of energy supply. From an end-user point of view, better residential energy management is needed to incorporate the time-of-use prices and assist end users in scheduling their daily use of electricity. This study uses bi-criteria optimization methods to schedule daily energy consumption by minimizing the electricity cost and maximizing the comfort of end users. Different from most previous research, this study schedules users’ activities rather than household appliances to have better measures of users’ comfort/satisfaction. The relation between each activity and the use of different appliances could be defined by users. The comfort level is at the highest when the time and duration of an activity completely meet the user’s expectation, and the comfort level decreases when the time and duration do not meet expectations. A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data for establishing regression models that describe users’ comfort levels when the execution time and duration of activities are different from user expectations. Six regression models representing the comfort levels for six types of activities were established using the responses to the questionnaire survey. A computer program is developed to evaluate electricity cost and the comfort level for each feasible schedule and then find the non-dominated schedules. The Epsilon constraint method is used to find the optimal schedule out of the non-dominated schedules. A hypothetical case is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and the computer program. Using the program, users can obtain the optimal schedule of daily energy consumption by inputting the intended time and duration of activities and the given time-of-use electricity prices.

Keywords: bi-criteria optimization, energy consumption, time-of-use price, scheduling

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4754 Management of Cultural Heritage: Bologna Gates

Authors: Alfonso Ippolito, Cristiana Bartolomei

Abstract:

A growing demand is felt today for realistic 3D models enabling the cognition and popularization of historical-artistic heritage. Evaluation and preservation of Cultural Heritage is inextricably connected with the innovative processes of gaining, managing, and using knowledge. The development and perfecting of techniques for acquiring and elaborating photorealistic 3D models, made them pivotal elements for popularizing information of objects on the scale of architectonic structures.

Keywords: cultural heritage, databases, non-contact survey, 2D-3D models

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4753 Continuous and Discontinuos Modeling of Wellbore Instability in Anisotropic Rocks

Authors: C. Deangeli, P. Obentaku Obenebot, O. Omwanghe

Abstract:

The study focuses on the analysis of wellbore instability in rock masses affected by weakness planes. The occurrence of failure in such a type of rocks can occur in the rock matrix and/ or along the weakness planes, in relation to the mud weight gradient. In this case the simple Kirsch solution coupled with a failure criterion cannot supply a suitable scenario for borehole instabilities. Two different numerical approaches have been used in order to investigate the onset of local failure at the wall of a borehole. For each type of approach the influence of the inclination of weakness planes has been investigates, by considering joint sets at 0°, 35° and 90° to the horizontal. The first set of models have been carried out with FLAC 2D (Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua) by considering the rock material as a continuous medium, with a Mohr Coulomb criterion for the rock matrix and using the ubiquitous joint model for accounting for the presence of the weakness planes. In this model yield may occur in either the solid or along the weak plane, or both, depending on the stress state, the orientation of the weak plane and the material properties of the solid and weak plane. The second set of models have been performed with PFC2D (Particle Flow code). This code is based on the Discrete Element Method and considers the rock material as an assembly of grains bonded by cement-like materials, and pore spaces. The presence of weakness planes is simulated by the degradation of the bonds between grains along given directions. In general the results of the two approaches are in agreement. However the discrete approach seems to capture more complex phenomena related to local failure in the form of grain detachment at wall of the borehole. In fact the presence of weakness planes in the discontinuous medium leads to local instability along the weak planes also in conditions not predicted from the continuous solution. In general slip failure locations and directions do not follow the conventional wellbore breakout direction but depend upon the internal friction angle and the orientation of the bedding planes. When weakness plane is at 0° and 90° the behaviour are similar to that of a continuous rock material, but borehole instability is more severe when weakness planes are inclined at an angle between 0° and 90° to the horizontal. In conclusion, the results of the numerical simulations show that the prediction of local failure at the wall of the wellbore cannot disregard the presence of weakness planes and consequently the higher mud weight required for stability for any specific inclination of the joints. Despite the discrete approach can simulate smaller areas because of the large number of particles required for the generation of the rock material, however it seems to investigate more correctly the occurrence of failure at the miscroscale and eventually the propagation of the failed zone to a large portion of rock around the wellbore.

Keywords: continuous- discontinuous, numerical modelling, weakness planes wellbore, FLAC 2D

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4752 Protection Plan of Medium Voltage Distribution Network in Tunisia

Authors: S. Chebbi, A. Meddeb

Abstract:

The distribution networks are often exposed to harmful incidents which can halt the electricity supply of the customer. In this context, we studied a real case of a critical zone of the Tunisian network which is currently characterized by the dysfunction of its plan of protection. In this paper, we were interested in the harmonization of the protection plan settings in order to ensure a perfect selectivity and a better continuity of service on the whole of the network.

Keywords: distribution network Gabes-Tunisia, continuity of service, protection plan settings, selectivity

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4751 An Empirical Analysis on the Evolution Characteristics and Textual Content of Campus Football Policy in China

Authors: Shangjun Zou, Zhiyuan Wang, Songhui You

Abstract:

Introduction In recent years, the Chinese government has issued several policies to promote the institutional reform and innovation of the development of campus football, but many problems have been exposed in the process of policy implementation. Therefore, this paper attempts to conduct an empirical analysis of the campus football policy texts to reveal the dynamic development of the microsystem in the process of policy evolution. Methods The selected policy contents are coded by constructing a two-dimensional analysis framework of campus football policy tool-policy objective. Specifically, the X dimension consists of three oriented policy tools: environment, supply and demand, while the Y dimension is divided into six aspects of policy objectives, including institution, competition, player teaching, coach training, resource guarantee and popularization. And the distribution differences of textual analysis units on X and Y dimensions are tested by using SPSS22.0 so as to evaluate the characteristics and development trend of campus football policy on respective subjects. Results 1) In the policy evolution process of campus football stepping into the 2.0 Era, there were no significant differences in the frequency distribution of policy tools(p=0.582) and policy objectives(p=0.603). The collaborative governance of multiple participants has become the primary trend, and the guiding role of Chinese Football Association has gradually become prominent. 2) There were significant differences in the distribution of policy tools before the evolution at a 95% confidence level(p=0.041). With environmental tools always maintaining the dominant position, the overall synergy of policy tools increased slightly. 3) There were significant differences in the distribution of policy objectives after the evolution at a 90% confidence level(p=0.069). The competition system of policy objective has not received enough attention while the construction of institution and resource guarantee system has been strengthened. Conclusion The upgraded version of campus football should adhere to the education concept of health first, promote the coordinated development of youth cultural learning and football skills, and strive to achieve more solid popularization, more scientific institution, more comprehensive resource guarantee and adequate integration. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the collaborative allocation of policy tools and reasonable planning of policy objectives so as to promote the high quality and sustainable development of campus football in the New Era. Endnote The policy texts selected in this paper are “Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Youth Campus Football” and “Action Plans for the Construction of Eight Systems of National Youth Campus Football”, which were promulgated on August 13, 2015 and September 25, 2020 respectively.

Keywords: campus football, content analysis, evolution characteristics, policy objective, policy tool

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4750 Effect of Irrigation and Hydrogel on the Water Use Efficiency of Zeto-Tiled Green-Gram Relay System in the Eastern Indo Gangetic-Plain

Authors: Benukar Biswas, S. Banerjee, P. K. Bandhyopadhyaya, S. K. Patra, S. Sarkar

Abstract:

Jute can be sown as relay crop in between the lines of 15-20 days old green gram for additional pulse yield without reducing the yield of jute. The main problem of this system is water use efficiency (WUE). The increase in water productivity and reduction in production cost were reported in the zero-tilled crop. The hydrogel can hold water up to 400 times of its weight and can release 95 % of the retained water. The present field study was carried out during 2015-16 at BCKV (tropical sub-humid, 1560 mm annual rainfall, 22058/ N, 88051/ E, 9.75 m AMSL, sandy loam soil, aeric Haplaquept, pH 6.75, organic carbon 5.4 g kg-1, available N 85 kg ha-1, P2O5 15.3 kg ha-1 and K2O 40 kg ha-1) with four levels of irrigation regimes: no irrigation - RF, cumulative pan evaporation 250mm (CPE250), CPE125 and CPE83 and three levels of hydrogel: no hydrogel (H0), 2.5 kg ha-1 (H2.5) and 5 kg ha-1 (H5). Throughout the crop growing period a linear positive relationship remained between Leaf Area Index (LAI) and evapotranspiration rate. The strength of the relationship between ETa and LAI started increasing and reached its peak at 7 WAS (R2=0.78) when green gram was at its maturity, and both the crops covered the nearly entire base area. This relation starts weakening from 13 WAS due to jute leaf shading. A linear relationship between system yield and ET was also obtained in the present study. The variation in system yield might be predicted 75% with ET alone. Effective rainfall was reduced with increasing irrigation frequency due to enhanced water supply in contrast to hydrogel application due to the difference in water storage capacity. Irrigation contributed a major source of variability of ET. Higher irrigation frequency resulted in higher ET loss ranging from 574 mm in RF to 764 mm in CPE83. Hydrogel application also increased water storage on a sustained basis and supplied to crops resulting higher ET from 639 mm in H0 to 671mm in H5. WUE ranged between 0.4 kg m-3 (RF) to 0.63 kg m-3 (CPE83 H5). WUE increased with increased application of irrigation water from 0.42 kg m-3 in RF to 0.57 kg m-3 in CPE 83. Hydrogel application significantly improves the WUE from 0.45 kg m-3 in H0 to 0.50 in H2.5 and 0.54 in H5. Under relatively dry root zone (RF), both evaporation and transpiration remain at suboptimal level resulting in lower ET as well as lower system yield. Green gram – jute relay system can be water use efficient with 38% higher yield with application of hydrogel @ 2.5 kg ha-1 under deficit irrigation regime of CPE 125 over rainfed system without application of the gel. Application of gel conditioner improved water storage, checked excess water loss from the system, and mitigated ET demand of the relay system for a longer time. Hence, irrigation frequency was reduced from five times at CPE 83 to only three times in CPE 125.

Keywords: zero tillage, deficit irrigation, hydrogel, relay system

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4749 Study of Surface Water Quality in the Wadi El Harrach for Its Use in the Artificial Groundwater Recharge of the Mitidja, North Algeria

Authors: M. Meddi, A. Boufekane

Abstract:

The Mitidja coastal groundwater which extends over an area of 1450 km2 is a strategic resource in the Algiers region. The high dependence of the regional economy on the use of this groundwater forces us to have recourse to its artificial recharge from the Wadi El Harrach in its upstream part. This system of artificial recharge has shown its effectiveness in the development of water resource mentioned in the succeeding works in several regions of the world. The objective of this study is to: Increase the reserves of water inputs by infiltration, raise the water level and its good quality in wells and boreholes, reduce losses to the sea, and address seawater intrusion by maintaining balance in the freshwater-saltwater interface in the downstream part of the groundwater basin. After analyzing the situation, it was noticed that a qualitative monitoring of the Wadi water for the groundwater recharge has to be done. For this purpose, we proceeded during three successive years (2010, 2011, and 2012) to the monthly sampling of water in the upstream part of the Wadi El Harrach for chemical analysis. The variation of the sediment transport concentration will be also measured. This monitoring aims to characterize the water quality and avoid clogging in the proposed recharge area. The results of these analyses showed the good chemical quality according to the analyses we performed in the laboratory during the three years, but they are too loaded with suspended matters. We noticed that these fine particles come from the grinding of limestone of sandpit located upstream of the area of the proposed recharge system. This problem can be solved by a water supply upstream of sandpit. For the recharge, we propose the method of using two wells for dual use, which means that it can be used for water supply and extraction. This solution is inexpensive in our case and could easily be used as wells are already drilled in the upstream part. This solution increases over time the piezometric level and also reduce groundwater contamination by saltwater in the downstream part.

Keywords: water quality, artificial groundwater recharge, Mitidja, North Algeria

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4748 Investigating the Role and Position of Tuka Sabz Manufacturing Service Company in Supplying Human Resources to Mobarakeh Steel Company

Authors: Mohammad Abbas Nejad

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Tuka Sabz service production company (private shares), with more than 30 years of history, is considered as one of the first holding companies of Tuka Foulad, which takes steps in the direction of increasing service quality and customer satisfaction. Manpower supply is one of the most important activities of Tuka Sabz company, in addition to car supply services; light and heavy transportation services; management of entertainment, sports, tourism and accommodation centers; design, creation and maintenance services of land space; preparing, cooking, distributing and serving all kinds of personal and ceremonial foods; design, construction, repair and reconstruction of non-industrial buildings; industrial laundry services; public and industrial cleaning services are also among other activities of Tuka Sabz. This company has a high capacity of specialized and committed human resources as the main pillar of its success and spent most of its years of activity in Mobarakeh steel company as one of the reliable contractors in the field of automotive service contracts, green space, industrial cleaning, management cultural, recreational and tourism places, consulting, maintenance and repair of buildings and facilities, industrial laundry, management of cooking centers and personnel transportation. The final result of this article states that Tuka Sabz company is trying to get the satisfaction of three main groups of stakeholders, i.e., employees, customers, and shareholders, for this purpose, by improving the competence and competence of employees, trying to establish a system of meritocracy and respecting the human status of employees. On the one hand, the implementation of quality management and assurance to employers with the timely and favorable implementation of contracts takes a step in this direction.

Keywords: Mubarakeh steel company, Tuka Sabz company, human resources, industrial laundry services

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4747 Fatigue Analysis and Life Estimation of the Helicopter Horizontal Tail under Cyclic Loading by Using Finite Element Method

Authors: Defne Uz

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Horizontal Tail of helicopter is exposed to repeated oscillatory loading generated by aerodynamic and inertial loads, and bending moments depending on operating conditions and maneuvers of the helicopter. In order to ensure that maximum stress levels do not exceed certain fatigue limit of the material and to prevent damage, a numerical analysis approach can be utilized through the Finite Element Method. Therefore, in this paper, fatigue analysis of the Horizontal Tail model is studied numerically to predict high-cycle and low-cycle fatigue life related to defined loading. The analysis estimates the stress field at stress concentration regions such as around fastener holes where the maximum principal stresses are considered for each load case. Critical element identification of the main load carrying structural components of the model with rivet holes is performed as a post-process since critical regions with high-stress values are used as an input for fatigue life calculation. Once the maximum stress is obtained at the critical element and the related mean and alternating components, it is compared with the endurance limit by applying Soderberg approach. The constant life straight line provides the limit for several combinations of mean and alternating stresses. The life calculation based on S-N (Stress-Number of Cycles) curve is also applied with fully reversed loading to determine the number of cycles corresponds to the oscillatory stress with zero means. The results determine the appropriateness of the design of the model for its fatigue strength and the number of cycles that the model can withstand for the calculated stress. The effect of correctly determining the critical rivet holes is investigated by analyzing stresses at different structural parts in the model. In the case of low life prediction, alternative design solutions are developed, and flight hours can be estimated for the fatigue safe operation of the model.

Keywords: fatigue analysis, finite element method, helicopter horizontal tail, life prediction, stress concentration

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4746 Renovate to nZEB of an Existing Building in the Mediterranean Area: Analysis of the Use of Renewable Energy Sources for the HVAC System

Authors: M. Baratieri, M. Beccali, S. Corradino, B. Di Pietra, C. La Grassa, F. Monteleone, G. Morosinotto, G. Puglisi

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The energy renovation of existing buildings represents an important opportunity to increase the decarbonization and the sustainability of urban environments. In this context, the work carried out has the objective of demonstrating the technical and economic feasibility of an energy renovate of a public building destined for offices located on the island of Lampedusa in the Mediterranean Sea. By applying the Italian transpositions of European Directives 2010/31/EU and 2009/28/EC, the building has been renovated from the current energy requirements of 111.7 kWh/m² to 16.4 kWh/m². The result achieved classifies the building as nZEB (nearly Zero Energy Building) according to the Italian national definition. The analysis was carried out using in parallel a quasi-stationary software, normally used in the professional field, and a dynamic simulation model often used in the academic world. The proposed interventions cover the components of the building’s envelope, the heating-cooling system and the supply of energy from renewable sources. In these latter points, the analysis has focused more on assessing two aspects that affect the supply of renewable energy. The first concerns the use of advanced logic control systems for air conditioning units in order to increase photovoltaic self-consumption. With these adjustments, a considerable increase in photovoltaic self-consumption and a decrease in the electricity exported to the Island's electricity grid have been obtained. The second point concerned the evaluation of the building's energy classification considering the real efficiency of the heating-cooling plant. Normally the energy plants have lower operational efficiency than the designed one due to multiple reasons; the decrease in the energy classification of the building for this factor has been quantified. This study represents an important example for the evaluation of the best interventions for the energy renovation of buildings in the Mediterranean Climate and a good description of the correct methodology to evaluate the resulting improvements.

Keywords: heat pumps, HVAC systems, nZEB renovation, renewable energy sources

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4745 Design and Implementation of A 10-bit SAR ADC with A Programmable Reference

Authors: Hasmayadi Abdul Majid, Yuzman Yusoff, Noor Shelida Salleh

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This paper presents the development of a single-ended 38.5 kS/s 10-bit programmable reference SAR ADC which is realized in MIMOS’s 0.35 µm CMOS process. The design uses a resistive DAC, a dynamic comparator with pre-amplifier and a SAR digital logic to create 10 effective bits ADC. A programmable reference circuitry allows the ADC to operate with different input range from 0.6 V to 2.1 V. A single ended 38.5 kS/s 10-bit programmable reference SAR ADC was proposed and implemented in a 0.35 µm CMOS technology and consumed less than 7.5 mW power with a 3 V supply.

Keywords: successive approximation register analog-to-digital converter, SAR ADC, resistive DAC, programmable reference

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4744 Performance and Limitations of Likelihood Based Information Criteria and Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Approximation Methods

Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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4743 Phenotype Prediction of DNA Sequence Data: A Machine and Statistical Learning Approach

Authors: Mpho Mokoatle, Darlington Mapiye, James Mashiyane, Stephanie Muller, Gciniwe Dlamini

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Great advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies have resulted in availability of huge amounts of sequencing data in public and private repositories, enabling a holistic understanding of complex biological phenomena. Sequence data are used for a wide range of applications such as gene annotations, expression studies, personalized treatment and precision medicine. However, this rapid growth in sequence data poses a great challenge which calls for novel data processing and analytic methods, as well as huge computing resources. In this work, a machine and statistical learning approach for DNA sequence classification based on $k$-mer representation of sequence data is proposed. The approach is tested using whole genome sequences of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates to (i) reduce the size of genomic sequence data, (ii) identify an optimum size of k-mers and utilize it to build classification models, (iii) predict the phenotype from whole genome sequence data of a given bacterial isolate, and (iv) demonstrate computing challenges associated with the analysis of whole genome sequence data in producing interpretable and explainable insights. The classification models were trained on 104 whole genome sequences of MTB isoloates. Cluster analysis showed that k-mers maybe used to discriminate phenotypes and the discrimination becomes more concise as the size of k-mers increase. The best performing classification model had a k-mer size of 10 (longest k-mer) an accuracy, recall, precision, specificity, and Matthews Correlation coeffient of 72.0%, 80.5%, 80.5%, 63.6%, and 0.4 respectively. This study provides a comprehensive approach for resampling whole genome sequencing data, objectively selecting a k-mer size, and performing classification for phenotype prediction. The analysis also highlights the importance of increasing the k-mer size to produce more biological explainable results, which brings to the fore the interplay that exists amongst accuracy, computing resources and explainability of classification results. However, the analysis provides a new way to elucidate genetic information from genomic data, and identify phenotype relationships which are important especially in explaining complex biological mechanisms.

Keywords: AWD-LSTM, bootstrapping, k-mers, next generation sequencing

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4742 Phenotype Prediction of DNA Sequence Data: A Machine and Statistical Learning Approach

Authors: Darlington Mapiye, Mpho Mokoatle, James Mashiyane, Stephanie Muller, Gciniwe Dlamini

Abstract:

Great advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies have resulted in availability of huge amounts of sequencing data in public and private repositories, enabling a holistic understanding of complex biological phenomena. Sequence data are used for a wide range of applications such as gene annotations, expression studies, personalized treatment and precision medicine. However, this rapid growth in sequence data poses a great challenge which calls for novel data processing and analytic methods, as well as huge computing resources. In this work, a machine and statistical learning approach for DNA sequence classification based on k-mer representation of sequence data is proposed. The approach is tested using whole genome sequences of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates to (i) reduce the size of genomic sequence data, (ii) identify an optimum size of k-mers and utilize it to build classification models, (iii) predict the phenotype from whole genome sequence data of a given bacterial isolate, and (iv) demonstrate computing challenges associated with the analysis of whole genome sequence data in producing interpretable and explainable insights. The classification models were trained on 104 whole genome sequences of MTB isoloates. Cluster analysis showed that k-mers maybe used to discriminate phenotypes and the discrimination becomes more concise as the size of k-mers increase. The best performing classification model had a k-mer size of 10 (longest k-mer) an accuracy, recall, precision, specificity, and Matthews Correlation coeffient of 72.0 %, 80.5 %, 80.5 %, 63.6 %, and 0.4 respectively. This study provides a comprehensive approach for resampling whole genome sequencing data, objectively selecting a k-mer size, and performing classification for phenotype prediction. The analysis also highlights the importance of increasing the k-mer size to produce more biological explainable results, which brings to the fore the interplay that exists amongst accuracy, computing resources and explainability of classification results. However, the analysis provides a new way to elucidate genetic information from genomic data, and identify phenotype relationships which are important especially in explaining complex biological mechanisms

Keywords: AWD-LSTM, bootstrapping, k-mers, next generation sequencing

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4741 A Sustainable Supplier Selection and Order Allocation Based on Manufacturing Processes and Product Tolerances: A Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Multi-Objective Optimization Approach

Authors: Ravi Patel, Krishna K. Krishnan

Abstract:

In global supply chains, appropriate and sustainable suppliers play a vital role in supply chain development and feasibility. In a larger organization with huge number of suppliers, it is necessary to divide suppliers based on their past history of quality and delivery of each product category. Since performance of any organization widely depends on their suppliers, well evaluated selection criteria and decision-making models lead to improved supplier assessment and development. In this paper, SCOR® performance evaluation approach and ISO standards are used to determine selection criteria for better utilization of supplier assessment by using hybrid model of Analytic Hierchchy Problem (AHP) and Fuzzy Techniques for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS). AHP is used to determine the global weightage of criteria which helps TOPSIS to get supplier score by using triangular fuzzy set theory. Both qualitative and quantitative criteria are taken into consideration for the proposed model. In addition, a multi-product and multi-time period model is selected for order allocation. The optimization model integrates multi-objective integer linear programming (MOILP) for order allocation and a hybrid approach for supplier selection. The proposed MOILP model optimizes order allocation based on manufacturing process and product tolerances as per manufacturer’s requirement for quality product. The integrated model and solution approach are tested to find optimized solutions for different scenario. The detailed analysis shows the superiority of proposed model over other solutions which considered individual decision making models.

Keywords: AHP, fuzzy set theory, multi-criteria decision making, multi-objective integer linear programming, TOPSIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 166
4740 High Temperature and High Pressure Purification of Hydrogen from Syngas Using Metal Organic Framework Adsorbent

Authors: Samira Rostom, Robert Symonds, Robin W. Hughes

Abstract:

Hydrogen is considered as one of the most important clean and renewable energy carriers for a sustainable energy future. However, its efficient and cost-effective purification remains challenging. This paper presents the potential of using metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) in combination with pressure swing adsorption (PSA) technology for syngas based H2 purification. PSA process analysis is done considering high pressure and elevated temperature process conditions, it reduces the demand for off-gas recycle to the fuel reactor and simultaneously permits higher desorption pressure, thereby reducing the parasitic load on the hydrogen compressor. The elevated pressure and temperature adsorption we present here is beneficial to minimizing overall process heating and cooling demand compared to existing processes. Here, we report the comparative performance of zeolite-5A, Cu-BTC, and the mix of zeolite-5A/Cu-BTC for H2 purification from syngas typical of those exiting water-gas-shift reactors. The MOFs were synthesized hydrothermally and then mixed systematically at different weight ratios to find the optimum composition based on the adsorption performance. The formation of different compounds were characterized by XRD, N2 adsorption and desorption, SEM, FT-IR, TG, and water vapor adsorption technologies. Single-component adsorption isotherms of CO2, CO, CH4, N2, and H2 over single materials and composites were measured at elevated pressures and different temperatures to determine their equilibrium adsorption capacity. The examination of the stability and regeneration performance of metal–organic frameworks was carried out using a gravimetric system at temperature ranges of 25-150℃ for a pressure range of 0-30 bar. The studies of adsorption/desorption on the MOFs showed selective adsorption of CO2, CH4, CO, and N2 over H2. Overall, the findings of this study suggest that the Ni-MOF-74/Cu-BTC composites are promising candidates for industrial H2 purification processes.

Keywords: MOF, H2 purification, high T, PSA

Procedia PDF Downloads 85
4739 Prediction of Formation Pressure Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Authors: Abdulmalek Ahmed

Abstract:

Formation pressure is the main function that affects drilling operation economically and efficiently. Knowing the pore pressure and the parameters that affect it will help to reduce the cost of drilling process. Many empirical models reported in the literature were used to calculate the formation pressure based on different parameters. Some of these models used only drilling parameters to estimate pore pressure. Other models predicted the formation pressure based on log data. All of these models required different trends such as normal or abnormal to predict the pore pressure. Few researchers applied artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict the formation pressure by only one method or a maximum of two methods of AI. The objective of this research is to predict the pore pressure based on both drilling parameters and log data namely; weight on bit, rotary speed, rate of penetration, mud weight, bulk density, porosity and delta sonic time. A real field data is used to predict the formation pressure using five different artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as; artificial neural networks (ANN), radial basis function (RBF), fuzzy logic (FL), support vector machine (SVM) and functional networks (FN). All AI tools were compared with different empirical models. AI methods estimated the formation pressure by a high accuracy (high correlation coefficient and low average absolute percentage error) and outperformed all previous. The advantage of the new technique is its simplicity, which represented from its estimation of pore pressure without the need of different trends as compared to other models which require a two different trend (normal or abnormal pressure). Moreover, by comparing the AI tools with each other, the results indicate that SVM has the advantage of pore pressure prediction by its fast processing speed and high performance (a high correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a low average absolute percentage error of 0.14%). In the end, a new empirical correlation for formation pressure was developed using ANN method that can estimate pore pressure with a high precision (correlation coefficient of 0.998 and average absolute percentage error of 0.17%).

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Formation pressure, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Fuzzy Logic (FL), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Functional Networks (FN), Radial Basis Function (RBF)

Procedia PDF Downloads 147
4738 The Hindrances Associated with Internet Banking Services in Nigeria: The Lagos State Perspective

Authors: Patience Oluchi Silas, Yemi Adeshina

Abstract:

Financial transactions involving the use of the internet has become an important practice among commercial banks in Nigeria with the introduction of internet banking and this has improved banking efficiency in rending services to customers. However, customers in Lagos State are enslaved in the fear of insecurity, technical failure, inadequate operational facilities, including improper telecommunications and poor power supply. It is in line with this that this paper explores the obstacles faced by Lagosians, tourists, small scale business owners, companies, customers and the government's attitude in addressing the challenges associated with online banking system in Nigeria through relevant legislations. Internet banking has the potential to transform economic activity and achieve developmental goals. If the associated Challenges are addressed quickly, then it will have the desired impact on the Nigerian economy. In this study, Respondents, mostly bank employees and customers were issued well designed and structured questionnaires to effectively examine the new developments brought about by the introduction of Internet banking and the challenges inhibiting its adoption. Hypotheses were formulated to test assumptions and claims generated from the study. The results were statistically analyzed to address the issues of errors and chances, and at the end, the result of the statistical analysis shows that all especially insecurity, inadequate operational facilities and poor power supply are the significant factors affecting the adoption of internet banking services in Nigeria. The study recommends that for internet banking to assume a developmental dimension in Nigeria and for the country to be fully integrated and respected in global financial environment, the prevalent level of frauds in Lagos State and among Nigerians must first be addressed and the relevant local laws should be put in place and in consonance with international laws and conventions; get the citizens well educated on the intricacies of Internet usage and frauds.

Keywords: internet-banking, adoption, challenges, insecurity, legislation, fraud, Lagos state, statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
4737 Assessing Smallholder Rice and Vegetable Farmers’ Constraints and Needs to Adopt Small-Scale Irrigation in South Tongu District, Ghana

Authors: Tamekloe Michael Kossivi, Kenichi Matsui

Abstract:

Irrigation access is one of the essential rural development investment options that can significantly improve smallholder farmers’ agriculture productivity. Investment in irrigation infrastructural development to supply adequate water could improve food security, growth in income for farmers, poverty alleviation, and improve business and livelihood. This paper assesses smallholder farmers’ constraints and the needs to adopt small-scale irrigation for crops production in the South Tongu District of Ghana. The data collection involved database search, questionnaire survey, interview, and field work. The structured questionnaire survey was administered from September to November 2020 among 120 respondents in six purposively sampled irrigation communities in the District. The questions focused on small-scale irrigation development constraints and needs. As a result, we found that the respondents relied mainly on rainfall for agriculture production. They did not have adequate irrigation access. Even though the District is blessed with open arable lands and rich water sources for rice and vegetable production on a massive scale, water sources like the Lower Volta River, Tordzi River, and Avu Lagoon were not close enough to the respondents. The respondents faced inadequate credit support (100%), unreliable rainfall (76%), insufficient water supply (54%), and unreliable water delivery challenges on their farms (53%). Physical constraints for the respondents to adopt irrigation included flood (77%), drought (93%), inadequate irrigation technology (59%), and insufficient technical know-how (65%). Farmers were interested in investing in irrigation infrastructural development to enhance productivity on their farms only if they own the farmlands. External support from donors on irrigation systems did not allow smallholder farmers to control irrigation facilities.

Keywords: constraints, food security, needs, smallholder farmers, small-scale irrigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 123
4736 Hydrological Analysis for Urban Water Management

Authors: Ranjit Kumar Sahu, Ramakar Jha

Abstract:

Urban Water Management is the practice of managing freshwater, waste water, and storm water as components of a basin-wide management plan. It builds on existing water supply and sanitation considerations within an urban settlement by incorporating urban water management within the scope of the entire river basin. The pervasive problems generated by urban development have prompted, in the present work, to study the spatial extent of urbanization in Golden Triangle of Odisha connecting the cities Bhubaneswar (20.2700° N, 85.8400° E), Puri (19.8106° N, 85.8314° E) and Konark (19.9000° N, 86.1200° E)., and patterns of periodic changes in urban development (systematic/random) in order to develop future plans for (i) urbanization promotion areas, and (ii) urbanization control areas. Remote Sensing, using USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) Landsat8 maps, supervised classification of the Urban Sprawl has been done for during 1980 - 2014, specifically after 2000. This Work presents the following: (i) Time series analysis of Hydrological data (ground water and rainfall), (ii) Application of SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) and other soft computing techniques for Urban Water Management, and (iii) Uncertainty analysis of model parameters (Urban Sprawl and correlation analysis). The outcome of the study shows drastic growth results in urbanization and depletion of ground water levels in the area that has been discussed briefly. Other relative outcomes like declining trend of rainfall and rise of sand mining in local vicinity has been also discussed. Research on this kind of work will (i) improve water supply and consumption efficiency (ii) Upgrade drinking water quality and waste water treatment (iii) Increase economic efficiency of services to sustain operations and investments for water, waste water, and storm water management, and (iv) engage communities to reflect their needs and knowledge for water management.

Keywords: Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), uncertainty analysis, urban sprawl, land use change

Procedia PDF Downloads 421
4735 Nigeria Rural Water Supply Management: Participatory Process as the Best Option

Authors: E. O. Aluta, C. A. Booth, D. G. Proverbs, T. Appleby

Abstract:

Challenges in the effective management of potable water have attracted global attention in recent years and remain many world regions’ major priorities. Scarcity and unavailability of potable water may potentially escalate poverty, obviate democratic expression of views and militate against inter-sectoral development. These challenges contra-indicate the inherent potentials of the resource. Thus, while creation of poverty may be regarded as a broad-based problem, it is capable of reflecting life-span reduction diseases, the friction of interests manifesting in threats and warfare, the relegation of democratic principles for authoritarian definitions and Human Rights abuse. The challenges may be identified as manifestations of ineffective management of potable water resource and therefore, regarded as major problems in environmental protection. In reaction, some nations have re-examined their laws and policies, while others have developed innovative projects, which seek to ameliorate difficulties of providing sustainable potable water. The problems resonate in Nigeria, where the legal framework supporting the supply and management of potable water has been criticized as ineffective. This has impacted more on rural community members, often regarded as ‘voiceless’. At that level, the participation of non-state actors has been identified as an effective strategy, which can improve water supply. However, there are indications that there is no pragmatic application of this, resulting in over-centralization and top-down management. Thus, this study focuses on how the participatory process may enable the development of participatory water governance framework, for use in Nigeria rural communities. The Rural Advisory Board (RAB) is proposed as a governing body to promote proximal relationships, institute democratisation borne out of participation, while enabling effective accountability and information. The RAB establishes mechanisms for effectiveness, taking into consideration Transparency, Accountability and Participation (TAP), advocated as guiding principles of decision-makers. Other tools, which may be explored in achieving these are, Laws and Policies supporting the water sector, under the direction of the Ministries and Law Courts, which ensure non-violation of laws. Community norms and values, consisting of Nigerian traditional belief system, perceptions, attitude and reality (often undermined in favour of legislations), are relied on to pave the way for enforcement. While the Task Forces consist of community members with specific designation of duties, which ensure compliance and enforceability, a cross-section of community members are assigned duties. Thus, the principle of participation is pragmatically reflected. A review of the literature provided information on the potentials of the participatory process, in potable water governance. Qualitative methodology was explored by using the semi-structured interview as strategy for inquiry. The purposive sampling strategy, consisting of homogeneous, heterogeneous and criterion techniques was applied to enable sampling. The samples, sourced from diverse positions of life, were from the study area of Delta State of Nigeria, involving three local governments of Oshimili South, Uvwie and Warri South. From the findings, there are indications that the application of the participatory process is inhered with empowerment of the rural community members to make legitimate demands for TAP. This includes the obviation of mono-decision making for the supply and management of potable water. This is capable of restructuring the top-down management to a top-down/bottom-up system.

Keywords: participation, participatory process, participatory water governance, rural advisory board

Procedia PDF Downloads 376
4734 Experimental and Theoratical Methods to Increase Core Damping for Sandwitch Cantilever Beam

Authors: Iyd Eqqab Maree, Moouyad Ibrahim Abbood

Abstract:

The purpose behind this study is to predict damping effect for steel cantilever beam by using two methods of passive viscoelastic constrained layer damping. First method is Matlab Program, this method depend on the Ross, Kerwin and Unger (RKU) model for passive viscoelastic damping. Second method is experimental lab (frequency domain method), in this method used the half-power bandwidth method and can be used to determine the system loss factors for damped steel cantilever beam. The RKU method has been applied to a cantilever beam because beam is a major part of a structure and this prediction may further leads to utilize for different kinds of structural application according to design requirements in many industries. In this method of damping a simple cantilever beam is treated by making sandwich structure to make the beam damp, and this is usually done by using viscoelastic material as a core to ensure the damping effect. The use of viscoelastic layers constrained between elastic layers is known to be effective for damping of flexural vibrations of structures over a wide range of frequencies. The energy dissipated in these arrangements is due to shear deformation in the viscoelastic layers, which occurs due to flexural vibration of the structures. The theory of dynamic stability of elastic systems deals with the study of vibrations induced by pulsating loads that are parametric with respect to certain forms of deformation. There is a very good agreement of the experimental results with the theoretical findings. The main ideas of this thesis are to find the transition region for damped steel cantilever beam (4mm and 8mm thickness) from experimental lab and theoretical prediction (Matlab R2011a). Experimentally and theoretically proved that the transition region for two specimens occurs at modal frequency between mode 1 and mode 2, which give the best damping, maximum loss factor and maximum damping ratio, thus this type of viscoelastic material core (3M468) is very appropriate to use in automotive industry and in any mechanical application has modal frequency eventuate between mode 1 and mode 2.

Keywords: 3M-468 material core, loss factor and frequency, domain method, bioinformatics, biomedicine, MATLAB

Procedia PDF Downloads 265
4733 Structural Strength Evaluation and Wear Prediction of Double Helix Steel Wire Ropes for Heavy Machinery

Authors: Krunal Thakar

Abstract:

Wire ropes combine high tensile strength and flexibility as compared to other general steel products. They are used in various application areas such as cranes, mining, elevators, bridges, cable cars, etc. The earliest reported use of wire ropes was for mining hoist application in 1830s. Over the period, there have been substantial advancement in the design of wire ropes for various application areas. Under operational conditions, wire ropes are subjected to varying tensile loads and bending loads resulting in material wear and eventual structural failure due to fretting fatigue. The conventional inspection methods to determine wire failure is only limited to outer wires of rope. However, till date, there is no effective mathematical model to examine the inter wire contact forces and wear characteristics. The scope of this paper is to present a computational simulation technique to evaluate inter wire contact forces and wear, which are in many cases responsible for rope failure. Two different type of ropes, IWRC-6xFi(29) and U3xSeS(48) were taken for structural strength evaluation and wear prediction. Both ropes have a double helix twisted wire profile as per JIS standards and are mainly used in cranes. CAD models of both ropes were developed in general purpose design software using in house developed formulation to generate double helix profile. Numerical simulation was done under two different load cases (a) Axial Tension and (b) Bending over Sheave. Different parameters such as stresses, contact forces, wear depth, load-elongation, etc., were investigated and compared between both ropes. Numerical simulation method facilitates the detailed investigation of inter wire contact and wear characteristics. In addition, various selection parameters like sheave diameter, rope diameter, helix angle, swaging, maximum load carrying capacity, etc., can be quickly analyzed.

Keywords: steel wire ropes, numerical simulation, material wear, structural strength, axial tension, bending over sheave

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
4732 Modeling and Prediction of Hot Deformation Behavior of IN718

Authors: M. Azarbarmas, J. M. Cabrera, J. Calvo, M. Aghaie-Khafri

Abstract:

The modeling of hot deformation behavior for unseen conditions is important in metal-forming. In this study, the hot deformation of IN718 has been characterized in the temperature range 950-1100 and strain rate range 0.001-0.1 s-1 using hot compression tests. All stress-strain curves showed the occurrence of dynamic recrystallization. These curves were implemented quantitatively in mathematics, and then constitutive equation indicating the relationship between the flow stress and hot deformation parameters was obtained successfully.

Keywords: compression test, constitutive equation, dynamic recrystallization, hot working

Procedia PDF Downloads 418
4731 Prediction of Crack Propagation in Bonded Joints Using Fracture Mechanics

Authors: Reza Hedayati, Meysam Jahanbakhshi

Abstract:

In this work, Fracture Mechanics is used to predict crack propagation in the adhesive jointing aluminum and composite plates. Three types of loadings and two types of glass-epoxy composite sequences: [0/90]2s and [0/45/-45/90]s are considered for the composite plate. Therefore 2*3=6 cases are considered and their results are compared. The debonding initiation load, complete debonding load, crack face profile and load-displacement diagram have been compared for the six cases.

Keywords: fracture, adhesive joint, debonding, APDL, LEFM

Procedia PDF Downloads 407
4730 Demand Forecasting to Reduce Dead Stock and Loss Sales: A Case Study of the Wholesale Electric Equipment and Part Company

Authors: Korpapa Srisamai, Pawee Siriruk

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to forecast product demands and develop appropriate and adequate procurement plans to meet customer needs and reduce costs. When the product exceeds customer demands or does not move, it requires the company to support insufficient storage spaces. Moreover, some items, when stored for a long period of time, cause deterioration to dead stock. A case study of the wholesale company of electronic equipment and components, which has uncertain customer demands, is considered. The actual purchasing orders of customers are not equal to the forecast provided by the customers. In some cases, customers have higher product demands, resulting in the product being insufficient to meet the customer's needs. However, some customers have lower demands for products than estimates, causing insufficient storage spaces and dead stock. This study aims to reduce the loss of sales opportunities and the number of remaining goods in the warehouse, citing 30 product samples of the company's most popular products. The data were collected during the duration of the study from January to October 2022. The methods used to forecast are simple moving averages, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing methods. The economic ordering quantity and reorder point are used to calculate to meet customer needs and track results. The research results are very beneficial to the company. The company can reduce the loss of sales opportunities by 20% so that the company has enough products to meet customer needs and can reduce unused products by up to 10% dead stock. This enables the company to order products more accurately, increasing profits and storage space.

Keywords: demand forecast, reorder point, lost sale, dead stock

Procedia PDF Downloads 108
4729 Ancient Iran Water Technologies

Authors: Akbar Khodavirdizadeh, Ali Nemati Babaylou, Hassan Moomivand

Abstract:

The history of human access to water technique has been one of the factors in the formation of human civilizations in the ancient world. The technique that makes surface water and groundwater accessible to humans on the ground has been a clever technique in human life to reach the water. In this study, while examining the water technique of ancient Iran using the Qanats technique, the water supply system of different regions of the ancient world were also studied and compared. Six groups of the ancient region of ancient Greece (Archaic 480-750 BC and Classical 223-480 BC), Urartu in Tuspa (600-850 BC), Petra (106-168 BC), Ancient Rome (265 BC), and the ancient United States (1450 BC) and ancient Iranian water technologies were studied under water supply systems. Past water technologies in these areas: water transmission systems in primary urban centers, use of water structures in water control, use of bridges in water transfer, construction of waterways for water transfer, storage of rainfall, construction of various types of pottery- ceramic, lead, wood and stone pipes have been used in water transfer, flood control, water reservoirs, dams, channel, wells, and Qanat. The central plateau of Iran is one of the arid and desert regions. Archaeological, geomorphological, and paleontological studies of the central region of the Iranian plateau showed that without the use of Qanats, the possibility of urban civilization in this region was difficult and even impossible. Zarch aqueduct is the most important aqueduct in Yazd region. Qanat of Zarch is a plain Qanat with a gallery length of 80 km; its mother well is 85 m deep and has 2115 well shafts. The main purpose of building the Qanat of Zārch was to access the groundwater source and transfer it to the surface of the ground. Regarding the structure of the aqueduct and the technique of transferring water from the groundwater source to the surface, it has a great impact on being different from other water techniques in the ancient world. The results show that the use of water technologies in ancient is very important to understand the history of humanity in the use of hydraulic techniques.

Keywords: ancient water technologies, groundwaters, qanat, human history, Ancient Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
4728 Approaches to Reduce the Complexity of Mathematical Models for the Operational Optimization of Large-Scale Virtual Power Plants in Public Energy Supply

Authors: Thomas Weber, Nina Strobel, Thomas Kohne, Eberhard Abele

Abstract:

In context of the energy transition in Germany, the importance of so-called virtual power plants in the energy supply continues to increase. The progressive dismantling of the large power plants and the ongoing construction of many new decentralized plants result in great potential for optimization through synergies between the individual plants. These potentials can be exploited by mathematical optimization algorithms to calculate the optimal application planning of decentralized power and heat generators and storage systems. This also includes linear or linear mixed integer optimization. In this paper, procedures for reducing the number of decision variables to be calculated are explained and validated. On the one hand, this includes combining n similar installation types into one aggregated unit. This aggregated unit is described by the same constraints and target function terms as a single plant. This reduces the number of decision variables per time step and the complexity of the problem to be solved by a factor of n. The exact operating mode of the individual plants can then be calculated in a second optimization in such a way that the output of the individual plants corresponds to the calculated output of the aggregated unit. Another way to reduce the number of decision variables in an optimization problem is to reduce the number of time steps to be calculated. This is useful if a high temporal resolution is not necessary for all time steps. For example, the volatility or the forecast quality of environmental parameters may justify a high or low temporal resolution of the optimization. Both approaches are examined for the resulting calculation time as well as for optimality. Several optimization models for virtual power plants (combined heat and power plants, heat storage, power storage, gas turbine) with different numbers of plants are used as a reference for the investigation of both processes with regard to calculation duration and optimality.

Keywords: CHP, Energy 4.0, energy storage, MILP, optimization, virtual power plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 169