Search results for: financial forecasting

Authors: Chokri Slim

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The relative failure of simultaneous equation models in the seventies has led researchers to turn to other approaches that take into account the dynamics of economic and financial systems. In this paper, we use an approach based on vector autoregressive model that is widely used in recent years. Their popularity is due to their flexible nature and ease of use to produce models with useful descriptive characteristics. It is also easy to use them to test economic hypotheses. The standard econometric techniques assume that the series studied are stable over time (stationary hypothesis). Most economic series do not verify this hypothesis, which assumes, when one wishes to study the relationships that bind them to implement specific techniques. This is cointegration which characterizes non-stationary series (integrated) with a linear combination is stationary, will also be presented in this paper. Since the work of Johansen, this approach is generally presented as part of a multivariate analysis and to specify long-term stable relationships while at the same time analyzing the short-term dynamics of the variables considered. In the empirical part, we have applied these concepts to study the dynamics of of the exchange rate in Tunisia, which is one of the most important economic policy of a country open to the outside. According to the results of the empirical study by the cointegration method, there is a cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants. This relationship shows that the variables have a significant influence in determining the exchange rate in Tunisia.

Keywords: stationarity, cointegration, dynamic models, causality, VECM models

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

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Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

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Authors: Supriadi Hardianto, Aditya Daniswara

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Today's workplace, flooded by millennial Generation or known also as Generation Y. A common problem that faced by the company towards Gen Y is a high turnover rate, attitudes problem, communication style, and different work style than the older generation. This is common in private sector. The objective of this study is to get a better understanding of the Gen Y Career Attitude at the workplace. The subject of this study is focusing on 430 respondent of Gen Y which age between 20 – 35 years old who works for a private company. The Questionnaire as primary data source captured 9 aspects of career attitude based on Career Attitudes Strategy Inventory (CASI). This Survey distributes randomly among Gen Y in the IT Industry (125 Respondent) and Manufacture Company (305 Respondent). A Random deep interview was conducted to get the better understanding of the etiology of their primary obstacles. The study showed that most of Indonesia Gen Y have a moderate score on Job satisfaction but in the other aspects, Gen Y has the lowest score on Skill Development, Career Worries, Risk-Taking Style, Dominant Style, Work Involvement, Geographical Barrier, Interpersonal Abuse, and Family Commitment. The top 5 obstacles outside that 9 aspects that faced by Gen Y are 1. Lower communication & networking support; 2. Self-confidence issues; 3. Financial Problem; 4. Emotional issues; 5. Age. We also found that parent perspective toward the way they are nurturing their child are not aligned with their child’s real life. This research fundamentally helps the organization and other Gen Y’s Stakeholders to have a better understanding of Gen Y Career Attitude at the workplace.

Keywords: career attitudes, CASI, Gen Y, career attitude at workplace

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Authors: Radah Yousuf, Ashraf Shebl

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Suicide is a tragic event with strong emotional repercussions for its survivors and for families of its victims. There were thousands of cases all over the world. There are many risk factors include mental disorders such as depression, and substance abuse, including alcoholism and use of benzodiazepines. Other suicides are impulsive acts due to stress such as from financial difficulties, troubles with relationships, or from bullying. The aim of work in this study is making a survey from archives of the suicidal cases, which had a medicolegal examination, in forensic medicine center in Al Madinah Almunawarah-KSA, for ten years in the period between 1428-1438h. In each case, some data are collected such as age, sex, time and place of an act, method of suicide, the presence of the witness, medical history. This study demonstrates that suicide is more common in male than female, and the 4th decade was the most period of age. The most common method of suicide was hanging followed by falling from the height. These results indicated that cultural and religious beliefs that discourage suicide and support self-preservation instinct, and suicide education programs provide information to students in high school, builds awareness, one of the most important issues in solving that problem. From the forensic view, circumstantial evidence of every forensic case must take and record, full history about the social, medical and psychological problems, attend the scene of death is a very important, complete medicolegal investigation for every case, and full autopsy with very skilled techniques and facilities can help in diagnosing what type of crimes.

Keywords: suicide, age, sex, hanging

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Authors: Anwar Adem Shikur, Erhan Akkas

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Purpose: This study investigates the impact of Islamic microfinance services on poverty alleviation in Ethiopia. Methodology: Employing a binary logistic regression model, this research analyzes the relationship between poverty reduction and a range of variables—income, education, household size, age, and savings—among clients of Islamic microfinance services. Data was collected through a semi-structured questionnaire administered to a purposive sample and complemented by semi-structured interviews with senior officials from Islamic microfinance institutions. Findings: The study reveals that income, education, household size, and age of clients are primary determinants of poverty reduction within the context of Islamic microfinance services in Ethiopia. Practical Implications: The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and government agencies seeking to enhance the livelihoods of Islamic microfinance clients and reduce poverty. Originality/Value: This research contributes to the existing literature by elucidating the specific mechanisms through which income, education, household size, and age influence poverty reduction among clients of Islamic microfinance services in Ethiopia. Furthermore, it provides a novel perspective on the role of Islamic microfinance in the country, including its challenges and opportunities. Social Implications: The study underscores the imperative for governments and institutions to prioritize financial inclusion as a means of addressing poverty and inequality across all socioeconomic strata.

Keywords: microfinance, binary logistic model, poverty reduction, Ethiopia.

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Authors: Nur Emma Mustaffa, Hii Ping Ping

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Late payment is a common issue in the construction industry and the subcontractors are not spared from it. This study has been carried out with the objectives to identify the implications of late payment issues toward the subcontractors and the strategies adopted by them to overcome the late payment issues. In terms of the strategies which can be adopted in overcoming the late payment, the subcontractors may suspend or slow down the construction process, making periodic follow up with the client, demand the rights to interest on late payment or the issuance of a promissory note by the client. The focus of the study is primarily on Grade 4 to Grade 7 contractors in Johor Bahru, Malaysia who carried out subcontracting works and registered under Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB). Employing survey as the main research method for data collection, the analysis would therefore mainly be adopting Likert Scale Analysis, Ranking Analysis and Frequency Distribution Analysis. This research showed the main implication of late payment issues towards subcontractors is created financial hardship to them. Besides, the most effective strategy adopted by the subcontractors to overcome the late payment issues is follow-up with client using formal procedure. From the findings, most of the subcontractors had low level of experiences and frequency in the adoption of Construction Industry Payment and Adjudication Act (CIPAA) 2012 to solve the payment disputes in the construction industry. In a nutshell, it is hoped that these findings will become guidance to the subcontractors to overcome the late payment issues in their future projects.

Keywords: subcontractors, implications, strategies, CIPAA 2012, payment

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Authors: Nancy Ayman Kamal Mohamed Mehrz

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As the economies of other countries in the Mediterranean Basin, the tourism sector in our country has a high denominator in economics. Tourism businesses, which are building blocks of tourism, sector faces with a variety of problems during their activities. These problems faced make business efficiency and competition conditions of the businesses difficult. Most of the problems faced by the tourism businesses and the information of consumers about consumers’ rights were used in this study, which is conducted to determine the problems of tourism businesses in the Central Anatolia Region. It is aimed to contribute the awareness of staff and executives working at tourism sector and to attract attention of businesses active concurrently with tourism sector and legislators. E-tourism is among the issues that have recently been entered into the field of tourism. In order to achieve this type of tourism, Information and Communications Technology (or ICT) infrastructures as well as Co-governmental organizations and tourism resources are important. In this study, the opinions of managers and tourism officials about the e-tourism in Leman city were measured; it also surveyed the impact of level of digital literacy of managers and tourism officials on attracting tourists. This study was conducted. One of the environs of the Esfahan province. This study is a documentary – survey and the sources include library resources and also questionnaires. The results obtained indicate that if managers use ICT, it may help e-tourism to be developed in the region, and increasing managers’ beliefs on e-tourism and upgrading their level of digital literacy may affect e-tourism development.

Keywords: financial problems, the problems of tourism businesses, tourism businesses, internet, marketing, tourism, tourism management economic competitiveness, enhancing competitiveness

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Authors: Abrar Noorain, Zeinab Amara, Sulaf Abdelaziz

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Background: Diabetic foot disease imposes a financial burden on diabetic patients and healthcare services. In Sudan, diabetic foot ulcer prevalence reached 18.1%. This study aims to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and practices and the correlation between the level of foot care knowledge and self-care practices among diabetic patients in Sudan. Methodology: In a cross-sectional study involving 262 patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes attending diabetic clinics in three primary care centers in Khartoum, Sudan, during September to November 2022, information regarding participants sociodemographic status, foot care knowledge, attitudes, and practices was gathered using a validated, structured questionnaire in a face-to-face interview method. These data were analyzed using the statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS) 22. Results: The patients’ mean age was 54.9 years, with a female predominance (56%). Of the participants, 37% had diabetes mellitus for over ten years. On the topic of foot care, 35.5% of patients showed good knowledge, and 76% were aware of the risk of reduced foot sensation. In relation to nail care, only 19% knew how to cut nails correctly. Conclusion: Knowledge, attitudes, and practices about diabetic foot care are substandard. There is a positive correlation between foot care knowledge and self-care practices. Hence, educating diabetic patients with foot care knowledge through an awareness program and the characteristics of diabetic shoes may improve self-care practices.

Keywords: DM, DFD, DFU, PHC, SPSS

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Authors: Sarthak Mishra, Astha Sinha

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There’s no doubt about the convenience of making commercial and business transactions over the Internet under the new business model known as the e-Commerce. The term 'Electronic commerce' or e-Commerce refers to the use of an electronic medium to carry out commercial transactions. E-Commerce is one of the parts of Information Science framework and its uses are gradually becoming popular. Thus, the threat of security issues in Information Science has now become an important subject of discussion amongst the concerned users. These two issues i.e. security and privacy are required to be looked into through social, organizational, technical and economic perspectives. The current paper analyses the effect of these two issues in the arena of e-commerce. Here, no specification has been discussed rather an attempt has been made to provide a general overview. Further, attempts have been made to discuss the security and privacy issues in relation to the E-Commerce financial transactions. We shall also discuss in particular different steps required to be taken before online shopping and also shall discuss the purpose of security and privacy in E-Commerce and why it has currently become the need of the present hour. Lastly, an attempt has been made to discuss the plausible future course of development of this practice and its impact upon the global economy and if any changes should be bought about to ensure a smooth evolution of the practice. This paper has adopted a descriptive methodology to undertake its major area of study, wherein the major source of information has been via the secondary resources. Also, the study is of a comparative nature wherein the position of the various national regimes have compared with regards to the research question.

Keywords: business-business transaction (B2B), business-consumer transaction (B2C), e-commerce, online transaction, privacy and security threats

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Authors: Nicolas D. Norboge

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Purchasers of municipal bonds in primary and secondary markets are increasingly expecting issuers to disclose environmental, social, and governance factors (ESG) inissuance and continuing disclosure documents. U.S. tolling authorities are slowly catching up with other transportation sectors, such as public transit, in integrating ESG factors into their bond disclosure documents. A systematic mixed-methods evaluation of publicly available bond disclosure documents from 2010-2022 suggest that only a small number of U.S. tolling authorities disclosedall ESG factors; however, the pace has accelerated significantly from 2020-2022. Because many tolling authorities have a direct financial stake in the growth of passenger vehicle miles traveled on their toll facilities, and in turn the burning of more climate-warming fossil fuels, one crucial questionthat remains is how bond purchasers will view increasedESG transparency. Recent moves by large institutional investors, credit rating agencies, and regulators suggestan expectation of ESG disclosure is a trend likely to endure. This researchsuggests tolling authorities will need to proactively consider these emerging trends and carefully adapt their disclosure practiceswhere possible. Building on these findings, this research also provides a basic sketch framework for how issuers can responsibly position themselves within the changing global municipal debt marketplace.

Keywords: debt policy, ESG, municipal bonds, public-private partnerships, public tolling authorities, transportation finance, and policy

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Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin

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Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.

Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes

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Authors: Samanta Tiague, Igor Michel Gachig

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The practice of inclusive education within general education classrooms is becoming more prevalent in Cameroon. In this context, quality Education is an important driver of the development agenda in this era of global sustainable development. This requires that the Cameroon’s educational system be strategically restructured to provide every citizen with the needed quality education for sustainable development. This study thus examined the need for the restructuring of the Cameroon educational system towards inclusive education as a target of the Sustainable Development Goal #4 (Ensure Quality Education), from a critical disability theory perspective. Special focus was on the education of children with visual impairment in the early childhood classroom. This study is suggesting a model design of responsive and contextual inclusive education policies, and the provision of quality human, material and financial educational resources to support the improvement of curriculums and inclusive instructional strategies. This paper is therefore designed as a basic starting point for early childhood educators with limited to no experience in working with students having visual impairments. Ultimately, this work represents a contribution to early childhood educators toward understanding visual impairment challenges and innovative practices to approach accessibility in a meaningful way to students in Cameroon. This is important to achieve quality education due to the peculiar nature of the educational needs of children with visual impairment, toward attainment of the global sustainable development agenda.

Keywords: early childhood educators, inclusive education, sustainable development, visual impairment

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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Authors: Anisul Islam

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The U.S. has a very strong trade relationship with China but with a large and persistent trade deficit. Some has argued that the undervalued Chinese Yuan is to be blamed for the persistent trade deficit. The empirical results are mixed at best. This paper empirically estimates the U.S. export function along with the U.S. import function with its trade with China with the purpose of testing for the existence of the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition as well for the possible existence of the J-curve hypothesis. Annual export and import data will be utilized for as long as the time series data exists. The export and import functions will be estimated using advanced econometric techniques, along with appropriate diagnostic tests performed to examine the validity and reliability of the estimated results. The annual time-series data covers from 1975 to 2022 with a sample size of 48 years, the longest period ever utilized before in any previous study. The data is collected from several sources, such as the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, IMF Financial Statistics, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, and several other sources. The paper is expected to shed important light on the ongoing debate regarding the persistent U.S. trade deficit with China and the policies that may be useful to reduce such deficits over time. As such, the paper will be of great interest for the academics, researchers, think tanks, global organizations, and policy makers in both China and the U.S.

Keywords: exports, imports, marshall-lerner condition, j-curve hypothesis, united states, china

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Authors: Hameed Rukayat Opeyemi, Pericles Pilidis, Pagone Emanuele

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An infinitesimal increase in performance can have immense reduction in operating and capital expenses in a power generation system. Therefore, constant studies are being carried out to improve both conventional and novel power cycles. Globally, power producers are constantly researching on ways to minimize emission and to collectively downsize the total cost rate of power plants. A substantial spurt of developmental technologies of low carbon cycles have been suggested and studied, however they all have their limitations and financial implication. In the area of carbon abatement in power plants, three major objectives conflict: The cost rate of the plant, Power output and Environmental impact. Since, an increase in one of this parameter directly affects the other. This poses a multi-objective problem. It is paramount to be able to discern the point where improving one objective affects the other. Hence, the need for a Pareto-based optimization algorithm. Pareto-based optimization algorithm helps to find those points where improving one objective influences another objective negatively and stops there. The application of Pareto-based optimization algorithm helps the user/operator/designer make an informed decision. This paper sheds more light on areas that multi-objective optimization has been applied in carbon abatement technologies in the last five years, developments and prospects.

Keywords: gas turbine, low carbon technology, pareto optimal, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Haruna Abdu Usman, Bashir Usman Mohammed, Mohammed Umar Jamil

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Municipal solid waste management constitutes a serious problem bedeviling environmental protection agencies in many cities of developing countries. Most agencies do not collect the totality of the waste generated in their cities. This study presents the current solid waste management practices and problems in Bauchi metropolis, Bauchi state Nigeria. The general feature is characterized by inefficient, insufficient and irrational collection and improper disposal alternatives. The consequent environmental effects of these problems depict clogged city drains, uncollected heap of waste on road sides of residential areas, vacant plots and uncompleted buildings and highways. This contributes immensely to flooding in the city. The major challenges facing the state environmental protection agency includes; lack of collection and disposal points, technical and institutional arrangements, financial resources and general attitude of the serving public among others. The study suggested a comprehensive and integrated approach to the solid waste management which recognizes and incorporates the interventionist role of the state government, the private formal and informal waste management operators and the serving public.

Keywords: municipal solid waste, bauchi metropolitan area, environmental protection agency, solid waste management, waste disposal

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Authors: Hanen Khaldi

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This paper aims to study the impact of international migration on human security in the Southeastern region of Asia, especially after Asian Financial Crisis 1997-98. International migration has impacts on many dimensions of security: the state security (sovereignty and autonomy); international relationships security (conflicts, terrorism, etc); and immigrants security. The paper aims to improve our comprehension of the impact of international migration on immigrant security in the region of Southeast Asia, particularly “vulnerable workers’’ whose number is growing very fast in the region. The literature review carried out on this matter led us to ask the following two question: 1) Did the creation of ASEAN Community matter on the evolution of immigrants in the region? And How governments try to resolve the gap between economic objectifs and security of immigrants in the region? To answer these two questions, the paper is subdivided in three parts: Firstly, we will show how the creation of the ASEAN Community, especially ASEAN Economic Community, had a significant impact on the pattern of evolution of immigration in this region. Secondly, we will paint a portrait illustrating the vulnerability of immigrants in Southeast Asia, particularly unskilled workers. Finally, using the theories of regional integration, we will assess how governments try to ensure the security and safety of the immigrants. Overall, our analysis illustrate the significant change of the official discourse of the leaders of the ASEAN member states, now more conciliator and especially more open to cooperation, as well as the proliferation of meetings and initiatives between these countries to control mobility flows in the region, and the ensure immigrants security.

Keywords: migrant workers, human security, human rights

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Authors: Adel Fathy Sadek Abdalla

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The issue of respect for human rights in Southeast Asia has become a major concern and is attracting the attention of the international community. Basically, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) made human rights one of its main issues and in the ASEAN Charter in 2008. Subsequently, the Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights ASEAN Human Rights (AICHR) was established. AICHR is the Southeast Asia Human Rights Enforcement Commission charged with the responsibilities, functions and powers to promote and protect human rights. However, at the end of 2016, the protective function assigned to the AICHR was not yet fulfilled. This is shown by several cases of human rights violations that are still ongoing and have not yet been solved. One case that has recently come to light is human rights violations against the Rohingya people in Myanmar. Using a legal-normative approach, the study examines the urgency of establishing a human rights tribunal in Southeast Asia capable of making a decision binding on ASEAN members or guilty parties. Data shows ASEAN needs regional courts to deal with human rights abuses in the ASEAN region. In addition, the study also highlights three important factors that ASEAN should consider when establishing a human rights tribunal, namely: Volume. a significant difference in terms of democracy and human rights development among the members, a consistent implementation of the principle of non-interference and the financial issue of the continuation of the court.

Keywords: sustainable development, human rights, the right to development, the human rights-based approach to development, environmental rights, economic development, social sustainability human rights protection, human rights violations, workers’ rights, justice, security.

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Authors: Gregory Kelly, Gary Chai, Sittampalam Manoharan, Deborah Delaney

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A Structural Number (SN) can be calculated for a road pavement from the properties and thicknesses of the surface, base course, sub-base, and subgrade. Historically, the cost of collecting structural data has been very high. Data were initially collected using Benkelman Beams and now by Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD). The structural strength of pavements weakens over time due to environmental and traffic loading factors, but due to a lack of data, no structural deterioration curve for pavements has been implemented in a Pavement Management System (PMS). International Roughness Index (IRI) is a measure of the road longitudinal profile and has been used as a proxy for a pavement’s structural integrity. This paper offers two conceptual methods to develop Pavement Structural Deterioration Curves (PSDC). Firstly, structural data are grouped in sets by design Equivalent Standard Axles (ESA). An ‘Initial’ SN (ISN), Intermediate SN’s (SNI) and a Terminal SN (TSN), are used to develop the curves. Using FWD data, the ISN is the SN after the pavement is rehabilitated (Financial Accounting ‘Modern Equivalent’). Intermediate SNIs, are SNs other than the ISN and TSN. The TSN was defined as the SN of the pavement when it was approved for pavement rehabilitation. The second method is to use Traffic Speed Deflectometer data (TSD). The road network already divided into road blocks, is grouped by traffic loading. For each traffic loading group, road blocks that have had a recent pavement rehabilitation, are used to calculate the ISN and those planned for pavement rehabilitation to calculate the TSN. The remaining SNs are used to complete the age-based or if available, historical traffic loading-based SNI’s.

Keywords: conceptual, pavement structural number, pavement structural deterioration curve, pavement management system

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Authors: Monique de Ritter, Annemieke Roobeek

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This study takes a holistic multi-layered systems approach on entrepreneurship, innovation, and sustainability. Concretely we looked how mission driven entrepreneurs (level 1) employ new business models and launch innovative products and/or ideas in their enterprises, which are (level 2) operating in entrepreneurial ecosystems (level 3), and how these in turn may generate higher level sustainable change (level 4). We employed a qualitative grounded research approach in which our aim is to contribute to theory. Fourteen in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with mission driven entrepreneurs in the Netherlands in which their individual drives, business models, and ecosystems were discussed. Interview transcripts were systematically coded and analysed and the ecosystems were visually mapped. Most important patterns include 1) entrepreneurs have a clear sustainable mission and regard this mission as de raison d’être of their enterprise; 2) entrepreneurs employ new business models with a focus on collaboration for innovation; the business model supports or enhances the sustainable mission of the enterprise, 3) entrepreneurs collaborate in ecosystems in which a) they also regard suppliers as partners for innovation and clients as ambassadors for the sustainable mission, b) would like to improve their relationships with financial institutions as they are in the entrepreneurs’ perspective often lagging behind with their innovative ideas and models, c) they collaborate for knowledge and innovation with several parties, d) personal informal connections are very important, and e) in which the higher sustainable mission is not a point of competition but of collaboration.

Keywords: sustainability, entrepreneurship, innovation, ecosystem, business models

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Authors: Mennatallah M. Hussein, Olivier de Weck

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The advancement of space exploration demands a robust space launch services program capable of reliably propelling payloads into orbit. Despite rigorous testing and quality assurance, launch failures still occur, leading to significant financial losses and jeopardizing mission objectives. Traditional failure prediction methods often lack the sophistication to account for multi-mode failure scenarios, as well as the predictive capability in complex dynamic systems. Traditional approaches also rely on expert judgment, leading to variability in risk prioritization and mitigation strategies. Hence, there is a pressing need for robust approaches that enhance launch vehicle reliability from lift-off until it reaches its parking orbit through comprehensive simulation techniques. In this study, the developed model proposes a multi-mode launch vehicle simulation framework for predicting failure scenarios when incorporating new technologies, such as new propulsion systems or advanced staging separation mechanisms in the launch system. To this end, the model combined a 6-DOF system dynamics with comprehensive data analysis to simulate multiple failure modes impacting launch performance. The simulator utilizes high-fidelity physics-based simulations to capture the complex interactions between different subsystems and environmental conditions.

Keywords: launch vehicle, failure prediction, propulsion anomalies, rocket launch simulation, rocket dynamics

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Authors: Salako Emmanuel Adekunle

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Computer education is referred to as the knowledge and ability to use computers and related technology efficiently, with a range of skills covering levels from basic use to advance. Computer continues to make an ever-increasing impact on all aspect of human endeavours such as education. With numerous benefits of computer education, what are the insights of students on computer education? This study investigated the perception of senior secondary school students on computer education in Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Nigeria. A sample of 7500 senior secondary schools students was involved in the study, one hundred (100) private and fifty (50) public schools within FCT. They were selected by using simple random sampling technique. A questionnaire [PSSSCEQ] was developed and validated through expert judgement and reliability co-efficient of 0.84 was obtained. It was used to gather relevant data on computer education. Findings confirmed that the students in the FCT had positive perception on computer education. Some factors were identified that affect students’ perception on computer education. The null hypotheses were tested using t-test and ANOVA statistical analyses at 0.05 level of significance. Based on these findings, some recommendations were made which include competent teachers should be employed into all secondary schools; this will help students to acquire relevant knowledge in computer education, technological supports should be provided to all secondary schools; this will help the users (students) to solve specific problems in computer education and financial supports should be provided to procure computer facilities that will enhance the teaching and the learning of computer education.

Keywords: computer education, perception, secondary school, students

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Authors: Zulkifli Mohamed Udin, Lee Khai-Loon, Mohamad Ghozali Hassan

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In today’s dynamic business environment, the competition is no longer between firms, but between supply chains to gain competitive advantages. The global manufacturing sector, especially the textile and apparel industry are essentially known for its supply chain dependency. The delicate nature of its business leads to emphasis on the smooth movement of upstream and downstream supply chain. The nature of this industry, however, result in huge dynamic flow of physical, information, and financial. The dynamic management of these flows requires adoption of supply chain technologies. Even though technology is widely implemented and studied in many industries by researchers, adoption of supply chain technologies in Malaysian textile and apparel industry is limited. There is relatively a handful academic study conducted on recent developments in Malaysian textile and apparel industry and supply chain technology adoption indicate a major gap in supply chain performance studies. Considering the importance given to Third Industrial Master Plan by the government Malaysia, it is necessary to understand the power of supply chain technology adoptions. This study aims to investigate supply chain technology adoption by textile and apparel companies in Malaysia. The result highlighted the benefits perceived by textile and apparel companies from supply chain technologies. The indifference of small and medium enterprises to operation management acts as a major inhibitor to the adoption of supply chain technologies, since they have resource limitations. This study could be used as a precursor for further detailed studies on this issue.

Keywords: supply chain technology adoption, supply chain performance, textile, apparel industry

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Authors: Hiba Taim

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This abstract falls within the scope of entrepreneurship and regulates cultural and creative entrepreneurship. It tackles the topic of "The Ecosystem in Cultural and Creative Entrepreneurship in North Africa". This piece of work deals with the problem of the absence of the ecosystem in cultural and creative enterprises in North Africa, meaning the absence of a clear structure of the ecosystem in the field of cultural and creative entrepreneurship in North Africa. The aim of this research is to create an integrated ecosystem that brings together all those involved in cultural and creative entrepreneurship in North Africa: from training, financial support, continuing, international organizations, government banks, and means of communication. This study is significant not only because it suggests some activities to develop this system but also because it provides all of the information to cultural and creative entrepreneurs in order for them to create project opportunities and activate the entrepreneurship process. It will also enable the creation of opportunities to work among them and formulate common cultural policies to develop the quality of cultural and creative services in North Africa. This research paper uses a qualitative approach to gather information of good quality about the problem being tackled, as well as studying and analyzing different documents and conducting interviews with cultural entrepreneurs, which will help to collect all the information on the state of the ecosystem in North Africa. For the moment, this paperwork is at the stage of collecting preliminary data regarding the problem and developing appropriate schedules for all the phases of the research in order to be productive and deliver this study in the coming months.

Keywords: cultural innovation, design innovation, design thinking, cultural entrepreneurship

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Authors: Simone Medio

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If we observe many modern cities from above, we are typically confronted with a sea of asphalt-clad flat rooftops. In contrast to the modernist expectation of a populated flat roof, flat rooftops in modern multi-story buildings are rarely used. On the contrary, they typify a desolate and abandoned landscape encouraging mechanical system allocation. Flat roof technology continues to be seen as a state-of-fact in most multi-storey building designs and its greening its prevalent environmental justification. This paper aims to seek a change in the approach to flat roofing. It makes a case for the opportunity at hand for architectonically resolute, sheltered, livable spaces that make a better use of the environment at rooftop level. The researcher is looking for the triggers that allow for that change to happen in the design process of case study buildings. The paper begins by exploring Han Slawick covered roof terrace in Amsterdam as a simple and essential example of transforming the flat roof in a usable, inhabitable space. It investigates the design challenges and the logistic, financial and legislative hurdles faced by the architect, and the outcomes in terms of building performance and occupant use and satisfaction. The researcher uses a grounded research methodology with direct interview process to the architect in charge of the building and the building user. Energy simulation tools and calculation of running costs are also used as further means of validating change.

Keywords: environmental design, flat rooftop persistence, roof re-habitation, tectonics

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Authors: E. Kharaishvili, G. Erkomaishvili, M. Chavleishvili

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The paper evaluates the natural and resource potential of agriculture, a traditional sector for Georgia. It is concluded that despite favorable conditions the rate of development of the sector is lower compared to other sectors of the economy, self-sufficiency rate for locally produced agricultural products is low; on average, import of food is 4 times higher compared to export, and the country faces considerable challenges in this regard. Tendencies of self-sufficiency rates are studied, and it is concluded that the indicators of export and import of agro-food products increase in accordance with the tendency of increasing production in agricultural sector. The paper substantiates stimulating impact of international trade on agricultural development. Two alternative strategies are assessed in this respect: 1) export stimulation, and 2) import replacement strategies. It is concluded that significant tendencies are observed in agro-food sector of Georgia; in particular, productivity is low; import volume significantly exceeds the export volume. It is considered that the growth of export will allow Georgia to overcome limited opportunities of local market and encourage increasing competitiveness. Various tools of economic policy are suggested for achieving these goals; in particular to subsidize export, optimize trade barriers, manage exchange rates effectively, offer special financial services, provide insurance for export, etc.

Keywords: agro-food sector, trend of production, export stimulation, economic policy

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Authors: Farshid Hajati, Federico Girosi, Shima Ghassempour

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We present a Deep Belief Network (DBN) method for clustering health trajectories. Deep Belief Network (DBN) is a deep architecture that consists of a stack of Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM). In a deep architecture, each layer learns more complex features than the past layers. The proposed method depends on DBN in clustering without using back propagation learning algorithm. The proposed DBN has a better a performance compared to the deep neural network due the initialization of the connecting weights. We use Contrastive Divergence (CD) method for training the RBMs which increases the performance of the network. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated extensively on the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) database. The University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a nationally representative longitudinal study that has surveyed more than 27,000 elderly and near-elderly Americans since its inception in 1992. Participants are interviewed every two years and they collect data on physical and mental health, insurance coverage, financial status, family support systems, labor market status, and retirement planning. The dataset is publicly available and we use the RAND HRS version L, which is easy to use and cleaned up version of the data. The size of sample data set is 268 and the length of the trajectories is equal to 10. The trajectories do not stop when the patient dies and represent 10 different interviews of live patients. Compared to the state-of-the-art benchmarks, the experimental results show the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method in clustering health trajectories.

Keywords: health trajectory, clustering, deep learning, DBN

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Authors: Baglan Bazylova

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The purpose of our article is to consider the social and psychological conflicts in Lyudmila Petrushevskaya’s stories as an artistic presentation of gender structure of modern society; to reveal originality of the characters’ inner world, the models of their behavior expressing the gender specific nature of modern feminine prose. Gender conflicts have taken the leading place in the modern prose. L. Petrushevskaya represents different types of conflicts including those which are shown in the images of real contradictions in the stories "Narratrix", "Thanks to Life”, "Virgin's Case", "Father and Mother". In the prose of Petrushevskaya the gender conflicts come out in two dimensions: The first one is love relations between a man and a woman. Because of the financial indigence, neediness a woman can’t afford herself even to fall in love and arrange her family happiness. The second dimension is the family conflict because of the male adultery. Petrushevskaya fixed on the unmanifistated conflict in detail. In the real life such gender conflict can appear in different forms but for the writer is important to show it as a life basis, hidden behind the externally safe facade of “the family happiness”. In the stories of L. Petrushevskaya the conflicts reflect the common character of the social and historical situations in which her heroines find themselves, in situations where a woman feels her opposition to the customary mode of life. The types of gender conflicts of these stories differ in character of verbal images. They are presented by the verbal and event ranks creating the conflicts just in operation.

Keywords: gender behavior of heroes, gender conflict, gender picture of the world, gender structure

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Authors: Javad Izadi, Sahar Majioud

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This study presents an approach of assessing the choice of performance measures of companies in the United Kingdom after the application of IFRS in 2005. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of IFRS on the choice of performance evaluation methods for UK companies. We analyse through an econometric model the relationship of the dependent variable, the firm’s performance, which is a nominal variable with the independent ones. Independent variables are split into two main groups: the first one is the group of accounting-based measures: Earning per share, return on assets and return on equities. The second one is the group of market-based measures: market value of property plant and equipment, research and development, sales growth, market to book value, leverage, segment and size of companies. Concerning the regression used, it is a multinomial logistic regression performed on a sample of 130 UK listed companies. Our finding shows after IFRS adoption, and companies give more importance to some variables such as return on equities and sales growth to assess their performance, whereas the return on assets and market to book value ratio does not have as much importance as before IFRS in evaluating the performance of companies. Also, there are some variables that have no impact on the performance measures anymore, such as earning per share. This article finding is empirically important for business in subjects related to IFRS and companies’ performance measurement.

Keywords: performance’s Measure, nominal variable, econometric model, evaluation methods

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Authors: Herdina Indrijati

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This research aims to describe teenager delinquency behavior (Juvenile Delinquency) of senior high school students in Surabaya, Indonesia. Juvenile Delinquency is a broad range of behaviors start from socially unacceptable behavior (overreact in school), violation (escape from home) to crimes (like stealing). This research uses quantitative descriptive method using 498 students who come from 8 different schools in Surabaya as subjects. Juvenile Delinquency behavior form questionnaire has been completed by subjects and was used to measure and describe the behavior. The result of this research is presented in statistic descriptive forms. Result shows that 169 subjects skip school, 55 subjects get out of home without parent’s permission, 110 subjects engage in smoking behavior, 74 subjects damage other people properties, 32 subjects steal, 16 subjects exploit others and 7 subjects engage in drug abuse. Frequency of the top five mentioned behavior are 1-10 times. It is also found that subject’s peers are most likely to be the victim of Juvenile Delinquency. The reasons teenagers engage in Juvenile Delinquency include (1) feeling tired, bored or lazy – that contributes to their skip school behavior (2) Having a lot of problem with parents - contrives them to run away from home, (3) accidentally damage other people’s properties, (4) financial problems – force them to steal and exploit, (5) feeling like having a lot of life problems – that makes them do drugs (6) trying smoking for experience.

Keywords: juvenile delinquency, senior high school, student

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