Search results for: stock prediction

Authors: Aaditya U. Jhamb

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Due to the current energy crisis that many countries are battling, energy-efficient buildings are the subject of extensive research in the modern technological era because of growing worries about energy consumption and its effects on the environment. The paper explores 8 factors that help determine energy efficiency for a building: (relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area, and glazing area distribution), with Tsanas and Xifara providing a dataset. The data set employed 768 different residential building models to anticipate heating and cooling loads with a low mean squared error. By optimizing these characteristics, machine learning algorithms may assess and properly forecast a building's heating and cooling loads, lowering energy usage while increasing the quality of people's lives. As a result, the paper studied the magnitude of the correlation between these input factors and the two output variables using various statistical methods of analysis after determining which input variable was most closely associated with the output loads. The most conclusive model was the Decision Tree Regressor, which had a mean squared error of 0.258, whilst the least definitive model was the Isotonic Regressor, which had a mean squared error of 21.68. This paper also investigated the KNN Regressor and the Linear Regression, which had to mean squared errors of 3.349 and 18.141, respectively. In conclusion, the model, given the 8 input variables, was able to predict the heating and cooling loads of a residential building accurately and precisely.

Keywords: energy efficient buildings, heating load, cooling load, machine learning models

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Q. Toufeeq, R. Kauser, U. R. Jamil, N. Sohaib

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Foundation design of a structure needs soil investigation to avoid failures due to settlements. This soil investigation is expensive and time-consuming. Developments of new residential societies involve huge leveling of large sites that is accompanied by heavy land filling. Poor practices of land fill for deep depths cause differential settlements and consolidations of underneath soil that sometimes result in the collapse of structures. The extent of filling remains unknown to the individual developer unless soil investigation is carried out. Soil investigation cannot be performed on each available site due to involved costs. However, fair estimate of bearing capacity can be made if such tests are already done in the surrounding areas. The geotechnical guidance maps can provide a fair assessment of soil properties. Previously, GIS-based approaches have been used to develop maps using extrapolation and interpolations techniques for bearing capacities, underground recharge, soil classification, geological hazards, landslide hazards, socio-economic, and soil liquefaction mapping. Standard penetration test (SPT) data of surrounding sites were already available. Google Earth is used for digitization of collected data. Few points were considered for data calibration and validation. Resultant Geographic information system (GIS)-based guidance maps are helpful to anticipate the bearing capacity in the real estate industry.

Keywords: bearing capacity, soil classification, geographical information system, inverse distance weighted, radial basis function

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Esam I. Jassim

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The main aim of this paper is to demonstrate the prediction of the model capability of predicting the nucleation process, the growth rate, and the deposition potential of second phase particles in gas flowlines. The primary objective of the research is to predict the risk hazards involved in the marine transportation of compressed natural gas. However, the proposed model can be equally used for other applications including production and transportation of natural gas in any high-pressure flow-line. The proposed model employs the following three main components to approach the problem: computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technique is used to configure the flow field; the nucleation model is developed and incorporated in the simulation to predict the incipient hydrate particles size and growth rate; and the deposition of the gas/particle flow is proposed using the concept of the particle deposition velocity. These components are integrated in a comprehended model to locate the hydrate deposition in natural gas flowlines. The present research is prepared to foresee the deposition location of solid particles that could occur in a real application in Compressed Natural Gas loading and offloading. A pipeline with 120 m length and different sizes carried a natural gas is taken in the study. The location of particle deposition formed as a result of restriction is determined based on the procedure mentioned earlier and the effect of water content and downstream pressure is studied. The critical flow speed that prevents such particle to accumulate in the certain pipe length is also addressed.

Keywords: hydrate deposition, compressed natural gas, marine transportation, oceanography

Procedia PDF Downloads 485

Authors: Todd Zhou, Mikhail Yurochkin

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Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is receiving increasing amounts of attention in the machine learning research community, boosted by recent technologies, such as autonomous driving and image processing. This newly-burgeoning field has called for the need for more effective and efficient methods for out-of-distribution generalization methods. Without accessing the label information, deploying machine learning models to out-of-distribution domains becomes extremely challenging since it is impossible to evaluate model performance on unseen domains. To tackle this out-of-distribution detection difficulty, we designed a model selection pipeline algorithm and developed a model selection framework with different impurity and randomness measurements to evaluate and choose the best-performing models for out-of-distribution data. By exploring different randomness scores based on predicted probabilities, we adopted the out-of-distribution entropy and developed a custom-designed score, ”CombinedScore,” as the evaluation criterion. This proposed score was created by adding labeled source information into the judging space of the uncertainty entropy score using harmonic mean. Furthermore, the prediction bias was explored through the equality of opportunity violation measurement. We also improved machine learning model performance through model calibration. The effectiveness of the framework with the proposed evaluation criteria was validated on the Folktables American Community Survey (ACS) datasets.

Keywords: model selection, domain generalization, model fairness, randomness measurements, bias index

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Alireza Gholipour, Mergen H. Ghayesh, Anthony Zander, Stephen J. Nicholls, Peter J. Psaltis

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A three-dimensional numerical model of an atherosclerotic coronary ‎artery is developed for the determination of high-risk situation and ‎hence heart attack prediction. Employing the finite element method ‎‎(FEM) using ANSYS, fluid-structure interaction (FSI) model of the ‎artery is constructed to determine the shear stress distribution as well ‎as the von Mises stress field. A flexible model for an atherosclerotic ‎coronary artery conveying pulsatile blood is developed incorporating ‎three-dimensionality, artery’s tapered shape via a linear function for ‎artery wall distribution, motion of the artery, blood viscosity via the ‎non-Newtonian flow theory, blood pulsation via use of one-period ‎heartbeat, hyperelasticity via the Mooney-Rivlin model, viscoelasticity ‎via the Prony series shear relaxation scheme, and micro-calcification ‎inside the plaque. The material properties used to relate the stress field ‎to the strain field have been extracted from clinical data from previous ‎in-vitro studies. The determined stress fields has potential to be used as ‎a predictive tool for plaque rupture and dissection.‎ The results show that stress concentration due to micro-calcification ‎increases the von Mises stress significantly; chance of developing a ‎crack inside the plaque increases. Moreover, the blood pulsation varies ‎the stress distribution substantially for some cases.‎

Keywords: atherosclerosis, fluid-structure interaction‎, coronary arteries‎, pulsatile flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Thamer Kubat, Riadh Al-Mahaidi, Ahmad Shayan

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The alkali-aggregate reaction (AAR) in concrete has a negative influence on the mechanical properties and durability of concrete. Confinement by carbon fibre-reinforced polymer (CFRP) is an effective method of treatment for some AAR-affected elements. Eighteen reinforced columns affected by different levels of expansion due to AAR were confined using CFRP to evaluate the effect of expansion level on confinement efficiency. Strength and strain capacities (axial and circumferential) were measured using photogrammetry under uniaxial compressive loading to evaluate the efficiency of CFRP wrapping for the rehabilitation of affected columns. In relation to uniaxial compression capacity, the results indicated that the confinement of AAR-affected columns by one layer of CFRP is sufficient to reach and exceed the load capacity of unaffected sound columns. Parallel to the experimental study, finite element (FE) modeling using ATENA software was employed to predict the behavior of CFRP-confined damaged concrete and determine the possibility of using the model in a parametric study by simulating the number of CFRP layers. A comparison of the experimental results with the results of the theoretical models showed that FE modeling could be used for the prediction of the behavior of confined AAR-damaged concrete.

Keywords: carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), finite element (FE), ATENA, confinement efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Zeineb Ben Salem, Wissem Frikha, Mounir Bouassida

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Liquefaction has been responsible for tremendous amounts of damage in historical earthquakes around the world. The installation of stone columns is widely adopted to prevent liquefaction. Stone columns provide a drainage path, and due to their high permeability, allow for the quick dissipation of earthquake generated excess pore water pressure. Several excess pore pressure generation models in silty sand have been developed and calibrated based on the results of shaking table and centrifuge tests focusing on the effect of silt content on liquefaction resistance. In this paper, the generation and dissipation of excess pore pressure variation of reinforced silty sand by stone columns during liquefaction are analyzedwith different silt content based on test results. In addition, the installation effect of stone columns is investigated. This effect is described by a decrease in horizontal permeability within a disturbed zone around the column. Obtained results show that reduced soil permeability and a larger disturbed zone around the stone column increases the generation of excess pore pressure during the cyclic loading and decreases the dissipation rate after cyclic loading. On the other hand, beneficial effects of silt content were observed in the form of a decrease in excess pore water pressure.

Keywords: stone column, liquefaction, excess pore pressure, silt content, disturbed zone, reduced permeability

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: N. Abbas, S. Lagomarsino, S. Cattari

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Examining existing experimental results for shallow rigid foundations subjected to vertical centric load (N), accompanied or not with a bending moment (M), two main non-linear mechanisms governing the cyclic ‎response of the soil-foundation system can be distinguished: foundation uplift and soil yielding. A soil-foundation failure limit, is defined as a domain of resistance in the two dimensional (2D) load space (N, M) inside of which lie all the admissible combinations of loads; these latter correspond to a pure elastic, non-linear elastic or plastic behavior of the soil-foundation system, while the points lying on the failure limit correspond to a combination of loads leading to a failure of the soil-foundation system. In this study, the proposed resistance domain is constructed analytically based on mechanics. Original elastic limit, uplift initiation ‎limit and iso-uplift limits are constructed inside this domain. These limits give a prediction ‎of the mechanisms activated for each combination of loads applied to the ‎foundation. A comparison of the proposed failure limit with experimental tests existing in the literature shows interesting results. Also, the developed uplift initiation limit and iso-uplift curves are confronted with others already proposed in the literature and widely used due to the absence of other alternatives, and remarkable differences are noted, showing evident errors in the past proposals and relevant accuracy for those given in the present work.

Keywords: foundation uplift, iso-uplift curves, resistance domain, soil yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Akeem Akinboro, Bala Alhaj Kegun

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Haemoglobinopathy is a genetic disorder that has the potentiality to cause death of individuals in whom both the alpha (α) and beta (β) globin chains of the haemoglobin molecule are defective due to mutations in their genes. The haemoglobin genotype variants among some residents of Niger state, Nigeria, were determined using the secondary data available at Bida, Minna and Kotangora general hospitals of the state. A total of 1,639 data, representing 434, 655 and 550, collected from the outside patients who visited the medical laboratory units of the three general hospitals, respectively, over five years period (2015-2020) were analyzed into gene frequency, sex and age to determine their haemoglobin genotypes status. More males (51.6 – 58.7%) than females (41.3 – 48.4%) visited the three hospitals during the period covered and most of the patients were between 11 - 20 years old. The frequency of HbA allele in the human population was 0.72, 0.65, 0.68 for Bida, Minna and Kotangora, respectively, while it was 0.25, 0.29 and 0.28 for HbS allele. The HbC allele was prevalent at 0.03, 0.06 and 0.05 among the human population in Bida, Minna and Kotangora cities of Niger state. In overall, the prevalence of HbA, HbS and HbC alleles in Niger state of Nigeria was 0.68, 0.28 and 0.05. Minna being the capital city of Niger state and the most populous among the three cities in the state seems to have influx of more people who are carriers of abnormal haemoglobin genotypes which has resulted to higher frequency of HbS and HbC than those of the other two cities in this study. These results show that the pattern of haemoglobin genotypes frequency of Kontagora could be a prediction for the whole of Niger state. It is therefore necessary and important to take screening of blood for haemoglobin genotype serious among intending couples to prevent and reduce the possibility of having increase in the number of people with abnormal haemoglobin genotypes in the state.

Keywords: haemoglobin, genotype, niger state, gene frequency, general hospitals

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Md. Shams Razi Shopnil, Tanvir Imtiaz, Sabrina Mahjabin, Md. Sahadat Hossain

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Saturated hydraulic conductivity is one of the most significant attributes of pavement base course. Determination of hydraulic conductivity is a routine procedure for regular aggregate base courses. However, in many cases, a cement-stabilized base course is used with compromised drainage ability. Traditional hydraulic conductivity testing procedure is a readily available option which leads to two consequential drawbacks, i.e., the time required for the specimen to be saturated and extruding the sample after completion of the laboratory test. To overcome these complications, this study aims at formulating an empirical approach to predicting hydraulic conductivity based on Unconfined Compressive Strength test results. To do so, this study comprises two separate experiments (Constant Head Permeability test and Unconfined Compressive Strength test) conducted concurrently on a specimen having the same physical credentials. Data obtained from the two experiments were then used to devise a correlation between hydraulic conductivity and unconfined compressive strength. This correlation in the form of a polynomial equation helps to predict the hydraulic conductivity of cement-treated pavement base course, bypassing the cumbrous process of traditional permeability and less commonly used horizontal permeability tests. The correlation was further corroborated by a different set of data, and it has been found that the derived polynomial equation is deemed to be a viable tool to predict hydraulic conductivity.

Keywords: hydraulic conductivity, unconfined compressive strength, recycled plastics, recycled concrete aggregates

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Etienne Provencal, David L. St-Pierre

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A facility exploiting only electronic gambling machines (EGMs) opened in 2007 in Quebec City, Canada under the name of Salons de Jeux du Québec (SdjQ). This facility is one of the first worldwide to rely on that business model. This paper models the performance of such EGMs. The interest from a managerial point of view is to identify the variables that can be controlled or influenced so that a comprehensive model can help improve the overall performance of the business. The EGM individual performance model contains eight different variables under study (Game Title, Progressive jackpot, Bonus Round, Minimum Coin-in, Maximum Coin-in, Denomination, Slant Top and Position). Using data from Quebec City’s SdjQ, a linear regression analysis explains 90.80% of the EGM performance. Moreover, results show a behavior slightly different than that of a casino. The addition of GameTitle as a factor to predict the EGM performance is one of the main contributions of this paper. The choice of the game (GameTitle) is very important. Games having better position do not have significantly better performance than games located elsewhere on the gaming floor. Progressive jackpots have a positive and significant effect on the individual performance of EGMs. The impact of BonusRound on the dependent variable is significant but negative. The effect of Denomination is significant but weakly negative. As expected, the Language of an EGMS does not impact its individual performance. This paper highlights some possible improvements by indicating which features are performing well. Recommendations are given to increase the performance of the EGMs performance.

Keywords: EGM, linear regression, model prediction, slot operations

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Suk Woo Hong, Chang Sung Seok, Jae Mean Koo

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Recently, the welding is widely used in modern industry for joining the structures. However, the waterworks pipes are exposed to the fatigue load by cars, earthquake and etc because of being buried underground. Moreover, the residual stress exists in weld zone by welding process and it is well known that the fatigue life of welded structures is degraded by residual stress. Due to such reasons, the crack can occur in the weld zone of pipeline. In this case, The ground subsidence or sinkhole can occur, if the soil and sand are washed down by fluid leaked from the crack of water pipe. These problems can lead to property damage and endangering lives. For these reasons, the estimation of fatigue characteristics for water pipeline weld zone is needed. Therefore, in this study, for fatigue characteristics estimation of spiral welded waterworks pipe, ASTM standard specimens and Curved Plate specimens were collected from the spiral welded waterworks pipe and the fatigue tests were performed. The S-N curves of each specimen were estimated, and then the fatigue life of weldment Curved Plate specimen was predicted by theoretical and analytical methods. After that, the weldment Curved Plate specimens were collected from the pipe and verification fatigue tests were performed. Finally, it was verified that the predicted S-N curve of weldment Curved Plate specimen was good agreement with fatigue test data.

Keywords: spiral welded pipe, prediction fatigue life, endurance limit modifying factors, residual stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Ayoub Bouazza, Ali Faddouli, Said Amal, Rachid Benhida, Khaoula Khaless

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Brine waste generated from reverse osmosis (RO) desalination plants contains various valuable compounds, mainly salts, trace elements, and organic matter. These wastes are up to two times saltier than standard seawater. Therefore, there is a strong economic interest in recovering these salts. The current practice in desalination plants is to reject the brine back to the sea, which affects the marine ecosystem and the environment. Our study aims to bring forth a reliable management solution for the valorisation of waste brines. Natural evaporation, isothermal evaporation at 25°C and 50°C, and evaporation using continuous heating were used to crystallize valuable salts from a reverse osmosis desalination plant brine located on the Moroccan Atlantic coast. The crystallization sequence of the brine was studied in comparison with standard seawater. The X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) of the precipitated solid phases showed similar results, where halite was the main solid phase precipitated from both the brine and seawater. However, Jänecke diagram prediction, along with FREZCHEM simulations, showed that Kainite should crystallize before Epsomite and Carnallite. As the absence of kainite formation in many experiments in the literature has been related to the metastability of kainite and the critical relative humidity conditions, and the precipitation of K–Mg salts is very sensitive to climatic conditions. An evaporation process is proposed as a solution to achieve the predicted crystallization path and to affirm the recovery of Kainite.

Keywords: salts crystallization, reverse osmosis, solar evaporation, frezchem, ZLD

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Oyesoji Aremu, Taiwo Williams

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This study examined some factors (academic self-efficacy, locus of control, motivation and gender) that could predict academic dishonesty among serially frustrated students in Ogun State, South West, Nigeria. Serial academically frustrated students are students who are unable to attain and meet academic expectations set by themselves or significant others. A sample of 250 undergraduate students selected from two faculties from a University in Ogun State,South West Nigeria took part in the study. Multiple regression analysis was employed to determine the joint and relative contributions of the independent variables to the prediction of the dependent variable. T-test was used to test the hypothesis determining the gender difference between the independent variables (academic self-efficacy, locus of control and motivation) and academic dishonesty of serial academically frustrated male and female students. The results of the study showed all the independent variables jointly contributed to predicting academic dishonesty, while only academic self-efficacy and motivation had relative contributions to the dependent measure. There was no significant difference in the academic self-efficacy and motivation among males and females on academic dishonesty of the serial academically frustrated students but locus of control showed a significant difference between male and female students on academic dishonesty. Implications for counseling of the findings are discussed in the study.

Keywords: academic dishonesty, serially frustrated students, academic self-efficacy, locus of control

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: S. Zith Dey Babu, S. Kour, S. Verma, C. Verma, V. Pathania, A. Agrawal, V. Chaudhary, A. Manoj Puthur, R. Goyal, A. Pal, T. Danti Dey, A. Kumar, K. Wadhwa, O. Ved

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Background: Skin cancer is now is the buzzing button in the field of medical science. The cyst's pandemic is drastically calibrating the body and well-being of the global village. Methods: The extracted image of the skin tumor cannot be used in one way for diagnosis. The stored image contains anarchies like the center. This approach will locate the forepart of an extracted appearance of skin. Partitioning image models has been presented to sort out the disturbance in the picture. Results: After completing partitioning, feature extraction has been formed by using genetic algorithm and finally, classification can be performed between the trained and test data to evaluate a large scale of an image that helps the doctors for the right prediction. To bring the improvisation of the existing system, we have set our objectives with an analysis. The efficiency of the natural selection process and the enriching histogram is essential in that respect. To reduce the false-positive rate or output, GA is performed with its accuracy. Conclusions: The objective of this task is to bring improvisation of effectiveness. GA is accomplishing its task with perfection to bring down the invalid-positive rate or outcome. The paper's mergeable portion conflicts with the composition of deep learning and medical image processing, which provides superior accuracy. Proportional types of handling create the reusability without any errors.

Keywords: computer-aided system, detection, image segmentation, morphology

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Tanapond S.

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Typically, most of the controlling firms are relate to family firms which are widespread and important for economic growth particularly in Asian Pacific region. The unique characteristics of the controlling families tend to play an important role in determining the corporate policies such as dividend policy. Given the complexity of the family business phenomenon, the empirical evidence has been unclear on how the families behind business groups influence dividend policy in Asian markets with the prevalent existence of cross-shareholdings and pyramidal structure. Dividend policy as one of an important determinant of firm value could also be implemented in order to examine the effect of the controlling families behind business groups on strategic decisions-making in terms of a governance perspective and agency problems. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of ownership structure and concentration which are influential internal corporate governance mechanisms in family firms on dividend decision-making. Using panel data and constructing a unique dataset of family ownership and control through hand-collecting information from the nonfinancial companies listed in Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) between 2000 and 2015, the study finds that family firms with large stakes distribute higher dividends than family firms with small stakes. Family ownership can mitigate the agency problems and the expropriation of minority investors in family firms. To provide insight into the distinguish between ownership rights and control rights, this study examines specific firm characteristics including the degrees of concentration of controlling shareholders by classifying family ownership in different categories. The results show that controlling families with large deviation between voting rights and cash flow rights have more power and affect lower dividend payment. These situations become worse when second blockholders are families. To the best knowledge of the researcher, this study is the first to examine the association between family firms’ characteristics and dividend policy from the corporate governance perspectives in Thailand with weak investor protection environment and high ownership concentration. This research also underscores the importance of family control especially in a context in which family business groups and pyramidal structure are prevalent. As a result, academics and policy makers can develop markets and corporate policies to eliminate agency problem.

Keywords: agency theory, dividend policy, family control, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Anurag Niranjan, Michael Fitzpatrick, Yin Jin Janin, Jazeel Chukkan, Niall Smyth

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Fillet welds are used in joining longitudinal stiffeners in ship structures. Welding residual stresses in fillet welds are generally distributed in a non-uniform manner, as shown in previous research the residual stress redistribution occurs under the cyclic loading that is experienced by such joints during service, and the combination of the initial residual stress, local constraints, and loading can alter the stress field in ways that are extremely difficult to predict. As the residual stress influences the crack propagation originating from the toe of the fillet welds, full understanding of the residual stress field and how it evolves is very important for structural integrity calculations. Knowledge of the residual stress redistribution in the presence of a flaw is therefore required for better fatigue life prediction. Moreover, defect assessment procedures such as BS7910 offer very limited guidance for flaw acceptance and the associated residual stress redistribution in the assessment of fillet welds. Therefore the objective of this work is to study a surface-breaking flaw at the weld toe region in a fillet weld under cyclic load, in conjunction with residual stress measurement at pre-defined crack depths. This work will provide details of residual stress redistribution under cyclic load in the presence of a crack. The outcome of this project will inform integrity assessment with respect to the treatment of residual stress in fillet welds. Knowledge of the residual stress evolution for this weld geometry will be greatly beneficial for flaw tolerance assessments (BS 7910, API 591).

Keywords: fillet weld, fatigue, residual stress, structure integrity

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Meysam Naeimi, Zili Li, Roumen Petrov, Rolf Dollevoet, Jilt Sietsma, Jun Wu

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The substantial similarity of fatigue mechanism in a new test rig for rolling contact fatigue (RCF) has been investigated. A new reduced-scale test rig is designed to perform controlled RCF tests in wheel-rail materials. The fatigue mechanism of the rig is evaluated in this study using a combined finite element-fatigue prediction approach. The influences of loading conditions on fatigue crack initiation have been studied. Furthermore, the effects of some artificial defects (squat-shape) on fatigue lives are examined. To simulate the vehicle-track interaction by means of the test rig, a three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is built up. The nonlinear material behaviour of the rail steel is modelled in the contact interface. The results of FE simulations are combined with the critical plane concept to determine the material points with the greatest possibility of fatigue failure. Based on the stress-strain responses, by employing of previously postulated criteria for fatigue crack initiation (plastic shakedown and ratchetting), fatigue life analysis is carried out. The results are reported for various loading conditions and different defect sizes. Afterward, the cyclic mechanism of the test rig is evaluated from the operational viewpoint. The results of fatigue life predictions are compared with the expected number of cycles of the test rig by its cyclic nature. Finally, the estimative duration of the experiments until fatigue crack initiation is roughly determined.

Keywords: fatigue, test rig, crack initiation, life, rail, squats

Procedia PDF Downloads 515

Authors: Adeniyi G. Adeogun, Bolaji F. Sule, Adebayo W. Salami, Michael O. Daramola

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Estimation of water yield and water balance in a river catchment is critical to the sustainable management of water resources at watershed level in any country. Therefore, in the present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interfaced with Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied as a tool to predict water balance and water yield of a catchment area in Nigeria. The catchment area, which was 12,992km2, is located upstream Jebba hydropower dam in North central part of Nigeria. In this study, data on the observed flow were collected and compared with simulated flow using SWAT. The correlation between the two data sets was evaluated using statistical measures, such as, Nasch-Sucliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The model output shows a good agreement between the observed flow and simulated flow as indicated by NSE and R2, which were greater than 0.7 for both calibration and validation period. A total of 42,733 mm of water was predicted by the calibrated model as the water yield potential of the basin for a simulation period 1985 to 2010. This interesting performance obtained with SWAT model suggests that SWAT model could be a promising tool to predict water balance and water yield in sustainable management of water resources. In addition, SWAT could be applied to other water resources in other basins in Nigeria as a decision support tool for sustainable water management in Nigeria.

Keywords: GIS, modeling, sensitivity analysis, SWAT, water yield, watershed level

Procedia PDF Downloads 437

Authors: Upasana Bhumbla

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Background: Hepatitis C virus is a major cause of chronic hepatitis, which can further lead to cirrhosis of the liver and hepatocellular carcinoma. Worldwide the burden of Hepatitis C infection has become a serious threat to the human race. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has population-specific genotypes and provides valuable epidemiological and therapeutic information. Genotyping and assessment of viral load in HCV patients are important for planning the therapeutic strategies. The aim of the study is to study the changing trends of prevalence and genotypic distribution of hepatitis C virus in a tertiary care hospital in Western India. Methods: It is a retrospective study; blood samples were collected and tested for anti HCV antibodies by ELISA in Dept. of Microbiology. In seropositive Hepatitis C patients, quantification of HCV-RNA was done by real-time PCR and in HCV-RNA positive samples, genotyping was conducted. Results: A total of 114 patients who were seropositive for Anti HCV were recruited in the study, out of which 79 (69.29%) were HCV-RNA positive. Out of these positive samples, 54 were further subjected to genotype determination using real-time PCR. Genotype was not detected in 24 samples due to low viral load; 30 samples were positive for genotype. Conclusion: Knowledge of genotype is crucial for the management of HCV infection and prediction of prognosis. Patients infected with HCV genotype 1 and 4 will have to receive Interferon and Ribavirin for 48 weeks. Patients with these genotypes show a poor sustained viral response when tested 24 weeks after completion of therapy. On the contrary, patients infected with HCV genotype 2 and 3 are reported to have a better response to therapy.

Keywords: hepatocellular, genotype, ribavarin, seropositive

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Assel Thami Lahlou, Soufiane Stouti, Ismail Lagrat, Hamid Mounir, Oussama Bouazaoui

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The purpose of this research work is to predict the helicopter from stalling by finding the minimum and maximum values that the pitch angle can take in order to fly in a hover state condition. The stall of a helicopter in hover occurs when the pitch angle is too small to generate the thrust required to support its weight or when the critical angle of attack that gives maximum lift is reached or exceeded. In order to find the minimum pitch angle, a 3D CFD simulation was done in this work using ANSYS FLUENT as the CFD solver. We started with a small value of the pitch angle θ, and we kept increasing its value until we found the thrust coefficient required to fly in a hover state and support the weight of the helicopter. For the CFD analysis, the Multiple Reference Frame (MRF) method with k-ε turbulent model was used to study the 3D flow around the rotor for θmin. On the other hand, a 2D simulation of the airfoil NACA 0012 was executed with a velocity inlet Vin=ΩR/2 to visualize the flow at the location span R/2 of the disk rotor using the Spallart-Allmaras turbulent model. Finding the critical angle of attack at this position will give us the ability to predict the stall in hover flight. The results obtained will be exposed later in the article. This study was so useful in analyzing the limitations of the helicopter’s main rotor and thus, in predicting accidents that can lead to a lot of damage.

Keywords: aerodynamic, CFD, helicopter, stall, blades, main rotor, minimum pitch angle, maximum pitch angle

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Filipa Cortez, Vanessa Pereira

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Introduction: The main challenge of obesity treatment is long-term weight loss maintenance. The 3 phases method is a weight loss program that combines a low carb and moderately high-protein diet, food supplements and a weekly one-to-one consultation with a certified nutritionist. Sustained weight control is the ultimate goal of phase 3. Success criterion was the minimum loss of 10% of initial weight and its maintenance after 12 months. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with successful weight loss maintenance after 12 months at the end of 3 phases method. Methods: The study included 199 subjects that achieved their weight loss goal (phase 3). Weight and body mass index (BMI) were obtained at the baseline and every week until the end of the program. Therapeutic adherence was measured weekly on a Likert scale from 1 to 5. Subjects were considered in compliance with nutritional recommendation and supplementation when their classification was ≥ 4. After 12 months of the method, the current weight and number of previous weight-loss attempts were collected by telephone interview. The statistical significance was assumed at p-values < 0.05. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS TM software v.21. Results: 65.3% of subjects met the success criterion. The factors which displayed a significant weight loss maintenance prediction were: greater initial percentage weight loss (OR=1.44) during the weight loss intervention and a higher number of consultations in phase 3 (OR=1.10). Conclusion: These findings suggest that the percentage weight loss during the weight loss intervention and the number of consultations in phase 3 may facilitate maintenance of weight loss after the 3 phases method.

Keywords: obesity, weight maintenance, low-carbohydrate diet, dietary supplements

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao

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The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.

Keywords: data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation

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Authors: Nabeeha Hassan Abdel Jalil, Lulwa Saeed Al Badi, Mouza Ghafan Alkhyeli, Khaja Mohteshamuddin, Ahmad Al Aiyan, Mohamed Elfatih Hamad, Robert Barigye

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The present study was done to elucidate the prevalence of enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) in the UAE, the seroprevalence rates of EBL in dairy herds from the Al Ain area, Abu Dhabi (AD) and indigenous cattle at the Al Ain livestock market (AALM) were assessed. Of the 949 sera tested by ELISA, 657 were from adult Holstein-Friesians from three farms and 292 from indigenous cattle at the AALM. The level of significance between the proportions of seropositive cattle were analyzed by the Marascuilo procedure and questionnaire data on husbandry and biosecurity practices evaluated. Overall, the aggregated farm and AALM data demonstrated a seroprevalence of 25.9%, compared to 37.0% for the study farms, and 1.0% for the indigenous cattle. Additionally, the seroprevalence rates at farms #1, #2 and #3 were 54.7%, 0.0%, and 26.3% respectively. Except for farm #2 and the AALM, statistically significant differences were noted between the proportions of seropositive cattle for farms #1 and #2 (Critical Range or CR=0.0803), farms #1 and #3 (p=0.1069), and farms #2 and #3 (CR=0.0707), farm #1 and the AALM (CR=0.0819), and farm #3 and the AALM (CR=0.0726). Also, the proportions of seropositive animals on farm #1 were 9.8%, 59.8%, 29.3%, and 1.2% in the 12-36, 37-72, 73-108, and 109-144-mo-old age groups respectively compared to 21.5%, 60.8%, 15.2%, and 2.5% in the respective age groups for farm #2. On both farms and the AALM, the 37-72-mo-old age group showed the highest EBL seroprevalence rate while all the 57 cattle on farm #2 were seronegative. Additionally, farms #1 and #3 had 3,130 and 2,828 intensively managed Holstein-Friesian cattle respectively, and all animals were routinely immunized against several diseases except EBL. On both farms #1 and #3, artificial breeding was practiced using semen sourced from the USA, and USA and Canada respectively, all farms routinely quarantined new stock, and farm #1 previously imported dairy cattle from an unspecified country, and farm #3 from the Netherlands, Australia and South Africa. While farm #1 provided no information on animal nutrition, farm #3 cited using hay, concentrates, and ad lib water. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first serological evidence of EBL in the UAE and as previously reported, the seroprevalence rates are comparatively higher in the intensively managed dairy herds than in indigenous cattle. As two of the study farms previously sourced cattle and semen from overseas, biosecurity protocols need to be revisited to avoid inadvertent EBL incursion and the possibility of regional transboundary disease spread also needs to be assessed. After the proposed molecular studies have adduced additional data, the relevant UAE animal health authorities may need to develop evidence-based EBL control policies and programs.

Keywords: cattle, enzootic bovine leukosis, seroprevalence, UAE

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Authors: Rafael Martins Manzano Silva, Jean-Francois Tremong

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Electrification of railway lines allows to increase speed, power, capacity and energetic efficiency of rolling stocks. However, this process of electrification is complex and costly. An electrification project is not just about design of catenary. It also includes installation of structures around electrification, as substation installation, electrical isolation, signalling, telecommunication and civil engineering structures. France has more than 30,000 km of railways, whose only 53% are electrified. The others 47% of railways use diesel locomotive and represent only 10% of the circulation (tons.km). For this reason, a new type of electrification, less expensive than the usual, is requested to enable the modernization of these railways. One solution could be the use of hybrids trains. This technology opens up new opportunities for less expensive infrastructure development such as the partial electrification of railway lines. In a partially electrified railway, the power supply of theses hybrid trains could be made either by the catenary or by the on-board energy storage system (ESS). Thus, the on-board ESS would feed the energetic needs of the train along the non-electrified zones while in electrified zones, the catenary would feed the train and recharge the on-board ESS. This paper’s objective deals with the technical and economic potential identification of partial electrification of railway lines. This study provides different scenarios of electrification by replacing the most expensive places to electrify using on-board ESS. The target is to reduce the cost of new electrification projects, i.e. reduce the cost of electrification infrastructures while not increasing the cost of rolling stocks. In this study, scenarios are constructed in function of the electrification’s cost of each structure. The electrification’s cost varies considerably because of the installation of catenary support in tunnels, bridges and viaducts is much more expensive than in others zones of the railway. These scenarios will be used to describe the power supply system and to choose between the catenary and the on-board energy storage depending on the position of the train on the railway. To identify the influence of each partial electrification scenario in the sizing of the on-board ESS, a model of the railway line and of the rolling stock is developed for a real case. This real case concerns a railway line located in the south of France. The energy consumption and the power demanded at each point of the line for each power supply (catenary or on-board ESS) are provided at the end of the simulation. Finally, the cost of a partial electrification is obtained by adding the civil engineering costs of the zones to be electrified plus the cost of the on-board ESS. The study of the technical and economic potential ends with the identification of the most economically interesting scenario of electrification.

Keywords: electrification, hybrid, railway, storage

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Authors: Andrej Golowin, Viktor Denk, Axel Riepe

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Solid fan blades and discs in aero engines are subjected to high combined low and high cycle fatigue loads especially around the contact areas between blade and disc. Therefore, special coatings (e.g. dry film lubricant) and surface treatments (e.g. shot peening or laser shock peening) are applied to increase the strength with respect to combined cyclic fatigue and fretting fatigue, but also to improve damage tolerance capability. The traditional deterministic damage tolerance assessment based on fracture mechanics analysis, which treats service damage as an initial crack, often gives overly conservative results especially in the presence of vibratory stresses. A probabilistic damage tolerance methodology using crack initiation data has been developed for fan discs exposed to relatively high vibratory stresses in cross- and tail-wind conditions at certain resonance speeds for limited time periods. This Monte-Carlo based method uses a damage databank from similar designs, measured vibration levels at typical aircraft operations and wind conditions and experimental crack initiation data derived from testing of artificially damaged specimens with representative surface treatment under combined fatigue conditions. The proposed methodology leads to a more realistic prediction of the minimum damage tolerance life for the most critical locations applicable to modern fan disc designs.

Keywords: combined fatigue, damage tolerance, engine, surface treatment

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Authors: Shohreh Ghasemi

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Introduction: Melanoma is a complex disease with various clinical and histopathological features that impact prognosis and treatment decisions. Traditional methods of melanoma prognosis involve manual examination and interpretation of clinical and histopathological data by dermatologists and pathologists. However, the subjective nature of these assessments can lead to inter-observer variability and suboptimal prognostic accuracy. AI, with its ability to analyze vast amounts of data and identify patterns, has emerged as a promising tool for improving melanoma prognosis. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was conducted to identify studies that employed AI techniques for melanoma prognosis. The search included databases such as PubMed and Google Scholar, using keywords such as "artificial intelligence," "melanoma," and "prognosis." Studies published between 2010 and 2022 were considered. The selected articles were critically reviewed, and relevant information was extracted. Results: The review identified various AI methodologies utilized in melanoma prognosis, including machine learning algorithms, deep learning techniques, and computer vision. These techniques have been applied to diverse data sources, such as clinical images, dermoscopy images, histopathological slides, and genetic data. Studies have demonstrated the potential of AI in accurately predicting melanoma prognosis, including survival outcomes, recurrence risk, and response to therapy. AI-based prognostic models have shown comparable or even superior performance compared to traditional methods.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, melanoma, accuracy, prognosis prediction, image analysis, personalized medicine

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Authors: Mojtaba Taheri, Saied Reza Ameli

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In this research, we have calculated the effect of membership in international climate change treaties for 20 developed countries based on the human development index (HDI) and compared this effect with the process of pollutant reduction in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory. For this purpose, the data related to The real GDP per capita with 2010 constant prices is selected from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database. Ecological Footprint (ECOFP) is the amount of biologically productive land needed to meet human needs and absorb carbon dioxide emissions. It is measured in global hectares (gha), and the data retrieved from the Global Ecological Footprint (2021) database will be used, and we will proceed by examining step by step and performing several series of targeted statistical regressions. We will examine the effects of different control variables, including Energy Consumption Structure (ECS) will be counted as the share of fossil fuel consumption in total energy consumption and will be extracted from The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2021) database. Energy Production (EP) refers to the total production of primary energy by all energy-producing enterprises in one country at a specific time. It is a comprehensive indicator that shows the capacity of energy production in the country, and the data for its 2021 version, like the Energy Consumption Structure, is obtained from (EIA). Financial development (FND) is defined as the ratio of private credit to GDP, and to some extent based on the stock market value, also as a ratio to GDP, and is taken from the (WDI) 2021 version. Trade Openness (TRD) is the sum of exports and imports of goods and services measured as a share of GDP, and we use the (WDI) data (2021) version. Urbanization (URB) is defined as the share of the urban population in the total population, and for this data, we used the (WDI) data source (2021) version. The descriptive statistics of all the investigated variables are presented in the results section. Related to the theories of sustainable development, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is more significant in the period of study. In this research, we use more than fourteen targeted statistical regressions to purify the net effects of each of the approaches and examine the results.

Keywords: climate change, globalization, environmental economics, sustainable development, international climate treaty

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Authors: Haruna Maama

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Environmental, social and governance (ESG) reporting is gaining considerable attention despite being voluntary. Meanwhile, it consumes resources to provide ESG reporting, raising a question of its value relevance. The study examined the impact of ESG reporting on the market value of listed firms in SSA. The annual and integrated reports of 276 listed sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) firms. The integrated reporting scores of the firm were analysed using a content analysis method. A multiple regression estimation technique using a GMM approach was employed for the analysis. The results revealed that ESG has a positive relationship with firms’ market value, suggesting that investors are interested in the ESG information disclosure of firms in SSA. This suggests that extensive ESG disclosures are attempts by firms to obtain the approval of powerful social, political and environmental stakeholders, especially institutional investors. Furthermore, the market value analysis evidence is consistent with signalling theory, which postulates that firms provide integrated reports as a signal to influence the behaviour of stakeholders. This finding reflects the value placed on investors' social, environmental and governance disclosures, which affirms the views that conventional investors would care about the social, environmental and governance issues of their potential or existing investee firms. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the prediction of signalling theory. In the context of this theory, integrated reporting is seen as part of firms' overall competitive strategy to influence investors' behaviour. The findings of this study make unique contributions to knowledge and practice in corporate reporting.

Keywords: environmental accounting, ESG accounting, signalling theory, sustainability reporting, sub-saharan Africa

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Authors: Palak Patel

Abstract:

Mumbai is one of the largest cities of the country with a population of 12.44 million over 437 Sq.km, and it is known as financial hub of India. In early 20th century, with the expansion of industrialization and growth of port, a huge demand for housing was created. In response to this, government enacted rent controls. Over a period of time, due to rent controls, the existing rental housing stock has deteriorated. Therefore, in last 25 years, government has been focusing on redevelopment of these rental buildings, also called ‘Cessed buildings’, in order to provide better standard of living to the tenants and also, to supply new housing units in the market. In India, developers are the main players in the housing market as they are the supplier of maximum dwelling units in the market. Hence, government attempts are inclined toward facilitating developers for the cessed building redevelopment projects by incentivizing them through making special provisions in the development control regulations. This research focuses on the entire process of redevelopment by the developers and issues faced by the related stakeholders in the same to reduce the stress on housing. It also highlights the loopholes in the current system and inefficient functioning of the process. The research was carried out by interviewing various developers, tenants and landlords in the island city who have already gone through redevelopment. From the case studies, it is very evident that redevelopment is undoubtedly a huge profit making business. In some cases, developers make profit of almost double the amount of the investment. But yet, satisfactory results are not seen on ground. It clearly indicates that there are some issues faced by developers which have not been addressed. Some of these issues include cumbersome legal procedures, negotiations with landlords and tenants, congestion and narrow roads, small size of the plots, informal practicing of ‘Pagdi system’ and financial viability of the project. This research recommends the up gradation of the existing cessed buildings by sharing the repairing and maintenance cost between landlords and tenants and also, income levels of tenants can be traced and housing vouchers or incentives can be provided to those who actual need it so that landlord does not have to subsidize the tenants. For redevelopment, the current interventions are generalized in nature as it does not take on ground issues into the consideration. There is need to identify local issues and give area specific solutions. And also, government should play a role of mediator to ensure all the stakeholders are satisfied and project gets completed on time.

Keywords: cessed buildings, developers, government’s interventions, redevelopment, rent controls, tenants

Procedia PDF Downloads 184