Search results for: predicting models

Authors: C. J. Coetzee, E. Horn

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One of the main challenges in using the Discrete Element Method (DEM) is to specify the correct input parameter values. In general, the models are sensitive to the input parameter values and accurate results can only be achieved if the correct values are specified. For the linear contact model, micro-parameters such as the particle density, stiffness, coefficient of friction, as well as the particle size and shape distributions are required. There is a need for a procedure to accurately calibrate these parameters before any attempt can be made to accurately model a complete bulk materials handling system. Since DEM is often used to model applications in the mining and quarrying industries, a calibration procedure was developed for materials that consist of relatively large (up to 40 mm in size) particles. A coarse crushed aggregate was used as the test material. Using a specially designed large shear box with a diameter of 590 mm, the confined Young’s modulus (bulk stiffness) and internal friction angle of the material were measured by means of the confined compression test and the direct shear test respectively. DEM models of the experimental setup were developed and the input parameter values were varied iteratively until a close correlation between the experimental and numerical results was achieved. The calibration process was validated by modelling the pull-out of an anchor from a bed of material. The model results compared well with experimental measurement.

Keywords: Discrete Element Method (DEM), calibration, shear box, anchor pull-out

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Authors: Stewart A. Keir, Faik A. Hamad

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This study aims to use both analytical and experimental methods of analysis to examine the accuracy of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models that can then be used for more complex analyses, accurately representing more elaborate flow phenomena such as internal shockwaves and boundary layers. The geometry used in the analytical study and CFD model is taken from the experimental rig. The analytical study is undertaken using isentropic and adiabatic relationships and the output of the analytical study, the 'shockwave location tool', is created. The results from the analytical study are then used to optimize the redesign an experimental rig for more favorable placement of pressure taps and gain a much better representation of the shockwaves occurring in the divergent section of the nozzle. The CFD model is then optimized through the selection of different parameters, e.g. turbulence models (Spalart-Almaras, Realizable k-epsilon & Standard k-omega) in order to develop an accurate, robust model. The results from the CFD model can then be directly compared to experimental and analytical results in order to gauge the accuracy of each method of analysis. The CFD model will be used to visualize the variation of various parameters such as velocity/Mach number, pressure and turbulence across the shock. The CFD results will be used to investigate the interaction between the shock wave and the boundary layer. The validated model can then be used to modify the nozzle designs which may offer better performance and ease of manufacture and may present feasible improvements to existing high-speed flow applications.

Keywords: CFD, nozzle, fluent, gas dynamics, shock-wave

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Authors: Anna Lytvynova

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This essay presents labour as a performatively national phenomenon from a cultural perspective. Considering Engels’ proposition of labour as the epicentre of development of social structures and communities, it theorizes the formation and sustainment of group identities through labour identities. Taking labour in the cultural sector as the starting point case study, the essay further enunciates such labour and labour identity as a form of engaged citizenship. In doing so, this piece hopes to arrive at a potential contemporary understanding of labour as having a central and dynamic role in cultural organization and citizenship. A parallel goal is to de-link sociological models of cultural labor from narratives of art and culture as something that stands separate from the 'real world' and the economy and exists in precarity. Combining discourse from cultural sociology, performance studies, and economics and grounding it in historical archive, the essay makes a primarily discursive theoretical contribution. Taking North American theatre organizations as the exemplifying starting point, this project positions cultural workers not solely as workers in a professional industry but as active citizen-subjects who are deeply involved in their society’s democratic processes. The resulting discourse can be used to shape more effective labour policies, as well as help art and cultural organizations find more effective organizational structures to engage the arts in the economic, political, and social spheres.

Keywords: arts labour, cultural sociology, national identity, performativity

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Authors: Ahmad Saadiq, Neeraj Sahu

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Sediment, which comprises of solid particles of mineral and organic material are transported by water. In river systems, the amount of sediment transported is controlled by both the transport capacity of the flow and the supply of sediment. The transport of sediment in rivers is important with respect to pollution, channel navigability, reservoir ageing, hydroelectric equipment longevity, fish habitat, river aesthetics and scientific interests. The sediment load transported in a river is a very complex hydrological phenomenon. Hence, sediment transport has attracted the attention of engineers from various aspects, and different methods have been used for its estimation. So, several experimental equations have been submitted by experts. Though the results of these methods have considerable differences with each other and with experimental observations, because the sediment measures have some limits, these equations can be used in estimating sediment load. In this present study, two black box models namely, an SRC (Sediment Rating Curve) and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) are used in the simulation of the suspended sediment load. The study is carried out for Seonath subbasin. Seonath is the biggest tributary of Mahanadi river, and it carries a vast amount of sediment. The data is collected for Jondhra hydrological observation station from India-WRIS (Water Resources Information System) and IMD (Indian Meteorological Department). These data include the discharge, sediment concentration and rainfall for 10 years. In this study, sediment load is estimated from the input parameters (discharge, rainfall, and past sediment) in various combination of simulations. A sediment rating curve used the water discharge to estimate the sediment concentration. This estimated sediment concentration is converted to sediment load. Likewise, for the application of these data in ANN, they are normalised first and then fed in various combinations to yield the sediment load. RMSE (root mean square error) and R² (coefficient of determination) between the observed load and the estimated load are used as evaluating criteria. For an ideal model, RMSE is zero and R² is 1. However, as the models used in this study are black box models, they don’t carry the exact representation of the factors which causes sedimentation. Hence, a model which gives the lowest RMSE and highest R² is the best model in this study. The lowest values of RMSE (based on normalised data) for sediment rating curve, feed forward back propagation, cascade forward back propagation and neural network fitting are 0.043425, 0.00679781, 0.0050089 and 0.0043727 respectively. The corresponding values of R² are 0.8258, 0.9941, 0.9968 and 0.9976. This implies that a neural network fitting model is superior to the other models used in this study. However, a drawback of neural network fitting is that it produces few negative estimates, which is not at all tolerable in the field of estimation of sediment load, and hence this model can’t be crowned as the best model among others, based on this study. A cascade forward back propagation produces results much closer to a neural network model and hence this model is the best model based on the present study.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Root mean squared error, sediment, sediment rating curve

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Authors: Rajesh Karki, Safal Bhattarai, Saket Adhikari

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Reliable and economic operation of power systems are becoming extremely challenging with large scale integration of renewable energy sources due to the intermittency and uncertainty associated with renewable power generation. It is, therefore, important to make a quantitative risk assessment and explore the potential resources to mitigate such risks. Probabilistic models for different energy storage systems (ESS), such as the flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and the compressed air energy storage (CAES) incorporating specific charge/discharge performance and failure characteristics suitable for probabilistic risk assessment in power system operation and planning are presented in this paper. The proposed methodology used in FESS modelling offers flexibility to accommodate different configurations of plant topology. It is perceived that CAES has a high potential for grid-scale application, and a hybrid approach is proposed, which embeds a Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method in an analytical technique to develop a suitable reliability model of the CAES. The proposed ESS models are applied to a test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the energy storage technologies in system operation and planning, as well as to assess their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios. A comparative study considering various storage system topologies are also presented. The impacts of failure rates of the critical components of ESS on the expected state of charge (SOC) and the performance of the different types of ESS during operation are illustrated with selected studies on the test system. The paper also applies the proposed models on the test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the different ESS technologies and to evaluate their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios and system configurations. The conclusions drawn from the study results provide valuable information to help policymakers, system planners, and operators in arriving at effective and efficient policies, investment decisions, and operating strategies for planning and operation of power systems with large penetrations of renewable energy sources.

Keywords: flywheel energy storage, compressed air energy storage, power system reliability, renewable energy, system planning, system operation

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Authors: Fatemeh Sadat Sharifi

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In the present study, the capabilities of WAVEWATCH-III and MIKE21-SW for predicting the characteristics of wind waves in Hormuz Strait are evaluated. The GFS wind data (Global Forecast System) were derived. The bathymetry of gride with 2 arc-minute resolution, also were extracted from the ETOPO1. WAVEWATCH-III findings illustrate more valid prediction of wave features comparing to the MIKE-21 SW in deep water. Apparently, in shallow area, the MIKE-21 provides more uniformities with altimetry measurements. This may be due to the merits of the unstructured grid which are used in MIKE-21, leading to better representations of the coastal area. The findings on the direction of waves generated by wind in the modeling area indicate that in some regions, despite the increase in wind speed, significant wave height stays nearly unchanged. This is fundamental because of swift changes in wind track over the Strait of Hormuz. After discussing wind-induced waves in the region, the impact of instability of the surface layer on wave growth has been considered. For this purpose, the average monthly mean air temperature has been used. The results in cold months, when the surface layer is unstable, indicates an acceptable increase in the accuracy of prediction of the indicator wave height.

Keywords: numerical modeling, WAVEWATCH-III, Strait of Hormuz, MIKE21-SW

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Authors: Ye Xue, Zhenhua Deng

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Objectives: Facial soft tissue thickness (FSTT) data could be obtained from CT scans by measuring the face-to-skull distances at sparsely distributed anatomical landmarks by manually located on face and skull. However, automated measurement using 3D facial and skull models by dense points using open-source software has become a viable option due to the development of computed assisted imaging technologies. By utilizing dense FSTT information, it becomes feasible to generate plausible automated facial approximations. Therefore, establishing a comprehensive and detailed, densely calculated FSTT database is crucial in enhancing the accuracy of facial approximation. Materials and methods: This study utilized head CT scans from 250 Chinese adults of Han ethnicity, with 170 participants originally born and residing in northern China and 80 participants in southern China. The age of the participants ranged from 14 to 82 years, and all samples were divided into five non-overlapping age groups. Additionally, samples were also divided into three categories based on BMI information. The 3D Slicer software was utilized to segment bone and soft tissue based on different Hounsfield Unit (HU) thresholds, and surface models of the face and skull were reconstructed for all samples from CT data. Following procedures were performed unsing MeshLab, including converting the face models into hollowed cropped surface models amd automatically measuring the Hausdorff Distance (referred to as FSTT) between the skull and face models. Hausdorff point clouds were colorized based on depth value and exported as PLY files. A histogram of the depth distributions could be view and subdivided into smaller increments. All PLY files were visualized of Hausdorff distance value of each vertex. Basic descriptive statistics (i.e., mean, maximum, minimum and standard deviation etc.) and distribution of FSTT were analysis considering the sex, age, BMI and birthplace. Statistical methods employed included Multiple Regression Analysis, ANOVA, principal component analysis (PCA). Results: The distribution of FSTT is mainly influenced by BMI and sex, as further supported by the results of the PCA analysis. Additionally, FSTT values exceeding 30mm were found to be more sensitive to sex. Birthplace-related differences were observed in regions such as the forehead, orbital, mandibular, and zygoma. Specifically, there are distribution variances in the depth range of 20-30mm, particularly in the mandibular region. Northern males exhibit thinner FSTT in the frontal region of the forehead compared to southern males, while females shows fewer distribution differences between the northern and southern, except for the zygoma region. The observed distribution variance in the orbital region could be attributed to differences in orbital size and shape. Discussion: This study provides a database of Chinese individuals distribution of FSTT and suggested opening source tool shows fine function for FSTT measurement. By incorporating birthplace as an influential factor in the distribution of FSTT, a greater level of detail can be achieved in facial approximation.

Keywords: forensic anthropology, forensic imaging, cranial facial reconstruction, facial soft tissue thickness, CT, open-source tool

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Authors: M. Hadi Bordbar, Matthew England, Alex Sen Gupta, Agus Santoso, Andrea Taschetto, Thomas Martin, Wonsun Park, Mojib Latif

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Climate models generally simulate long-term reductions in the Pacific Walker Circulation with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. However, over two recent decades (1992-2011) there was a strong intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds that is linked with a slowdown in global surface warming. Using large ensembles of multiple climate models forced by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and starting from different ocean and/or atmospheric initial conditions, we reveal very diverse 20-year trends in the tropical Pacific climate associated with a considerable uncertainty in the globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) in each model ensemble. This result suggests low confidence in our ability to accurately predict SAT trends over 20-year timescale only from external forcing. We show, however, that the uncertainty can be reduced when the initial oceanic state is adequately known and well represented in the model. Our analyses suggest that internal variability in the Pacific trade winds can mask the anthropogenic signal over a 20-year time frame, and drive transitions between periods of accelerated global warming and temporary slowdown periods.

Keywords: trade winds, walker circulation, hiatus in the global surface warming, internal climate variability

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Authors: Beaula, M. Kruger, Silindisipho, T. Belot

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Small informal retailers are considered one of the most important features of developing countries around the world. Those small informal retailers form part of the local communities in South African townships and are estimated to be more than 100,000 across the country. The township economic landscape has changed over time in South Africa. The traditional small informal retailers in South African Townships have been faced with numerous challenges of increasing competition; an increase in the number of local retail shops and foreign-owned shops. There is evidence that the South African personal and disposable income has increased amongst black African consumers. Historically, people residing in townships were restricted to informal retail shops; however, this has changed due to the growing number of formal large retail chains entering into the township market. The larger retail chains are aware of the improved income levels of the middle-income townships residence and as a result, larger retailers have followed certain strategies such as; (1) retail format development; (2) diversification growth strategy; (3) market penetration growth strategy and (4) market expansion. This research did a comparative analysis between the different retail models developed by Pick n Pay, Spar and Shoprite. The research methodology employed for this study was of a qualitative nature and made use of a case study to conduct a comparative analysis between larger retailers. A questionnaire was also designed to obtain data from existing smaller retailers. The study found that larger retailers have developed smaller retail formats to compete with the traditional smaller retailers operating in South African townships. Only one out of the two large retailers offers entrepreneurs a franchise model. One of the big retailers offers the opportunity to employ between 15 to 20 employees while the others are subject to the outcome of a feasibility study. The response obtained from the entrepreneurs in the townships were mixed, while some found their presence as having a “negative impact,” which has increased competition; others saw them as a means to obtain a variety of products. This research found that the most beneficial retail model for both bigger retail and existing and new entrepreneurs are from Pick n Pay. The other retail format models are more beneficial for the bigger retailers and not to new and existing entrepreneurs.

Keywords: Pick n Pay, retailers, shoprite, spar, townships

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Authors: Farnoosh Faal

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Institutional and organizational change in social housing organizations can have a significant impact on both the organizations themselves and their stakeholders. This paper provides an overview of the impact of institutional and organizational change on social housing organizations and their stakeholders, including tenants, employees, and other community members. The paper examines the different types of institutional and organizational change that can occur in social housing organizations, such as changes in management structure, funding models, and service delivery methods. It also explores the potential benefits and drawbacks of these changes, including changes in efficiency, service quality, and tenant satisfaction. The paper further discusses the impact of institutional and organizational change on social housing organization stakeholders, including the effects on employee morale, tenant engagement, and community relationships. The paper highlights the importance of effective stakeholder engagement and communication in ensuring a smooth transition to new organizational models and systems. Finally, the paper discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by institutional and organizational change in social housing organizations and provides recommendations for organizations looking to navigate these changes successfully. These recommendations include prioritizing stakeholder engagement, investing in staff training and development, and maintaining a focus on the needs and priorities of tenants and communities. Overall, this paper emphasizes the importance of considering the impact of institutional and organizational change on social housing organizations and their stakeholders and highlights strategies for managing these changes in a way that maximizes benefits and minimizes negative impacts.

Keywords: social housing organizations, stakeholder engagement, institutional change, challenges, opportunities

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Authors: Alper Taner, Yesim Benal Oztekin, Huseyin Duran

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In this study, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was developed in order to classify barley varieties. For this purpose, physical properties of barley varieties were determined and ANN techniques were used. The physical properties of 8 barley varieties grown in Turkey, namely thousand kernel weight, geometric mean diameter, sphericity, kernel volume, surface area, bulk density, true density, porosity and colour parameters of grain, were determined and it was found that these properties were statistically significant with respect to varieties. As ANN model, three models, N-l, N-2 and N-3 were constructed. The performances of these models were compared. It was determined that the best-fit model was N-1. In the N-1 model, the structure of the model was designed to be 11 input layers, 2 hidden layers and 1 output layer. Thousand kernel weight, geometric mean diameter, sphericity, kernel volume, surface area, bulk density, true density, porosity and colour parameters of grain were used as input parameter; and varieties as output parameter. R2, Root Mean Square Error and Mean Error for the N-l model were found as 99.99%, 0.00074 and 0.009%, respectively. All results obtained by the N-l model were observed to have been quite consistent with real data. By this model, it would be possible to construct automation systems for classification and cleaning in flourmills.

Keywords: physical properties, artificial neural networks, barley, classification

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Authors: M. F. Amado, A. Amado, F. Poggi, J. Correia de Freitas

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Today it is widely understood that global energy consumption patterns are directly related to the ongoing urban expansion and development process. This expansion is based on the natural growth of human activities and has left most urban areas totally dependent on fossil fuel derived external energy inputs. This status-quo of production, transportation, storage and consumption of energy has become inefficient and is set to become even more so when the continuous increases in energy demand are factored in. The territorial management of land use and related activities is a central component in the search for more efficient models of energy use, models that can meet current and future regional, national and European goals. In this paper, a methodology is developed and discussed with the aim of improving energy efficiency at the municipal level. The development of this methodology is based on the monitoring of energy consumption and its use patterns resulting from the natural dynamism of human activities in the territory and can be utilized to assess sustainability at the local scale. A set of parameters and indicators are defined with the objective of constructing a systemic model based on the optimization, adaptation and innovation of the current energy framework and the associated energy consumption patterns. The use of the model will enable local governments to strike the necessary balance between human activities, economic development, and the local and global environment while safeguarding fairness in the energy sector.

Keywords: solar urban planning, solar smart city, urban development, energy efficiency

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Authors: Megha Agarwal

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The research paper is an effort to compare the earnings based and cash flow based methods of valuation of an enterprise. The theoretically equivalent methods based on either earnings such as Residual Earnings Model (REM), Abnormal Earnings Growth Model (AEGM), Residual Operating Income Method (ReOIM), Abnormal Operating Income Growth Model (AOIGM) and its extensions multipliers such as price/earnings ratio, price/book value ratio; or cash flow based models such as Dividend Valuation Method (DVM) and Free Cash Flow Method (FCFM) all provide different estimates of valuation of the Indian giant corporate Reliance India Limited (RIL). An ex-post analysis of published accounting and financial data for four financial years from 2008-09 to 2011-12 has been conducted. A comparison of these valuation estimates with the actual market capitalization of the company shows that the complex accounting based model AOIGM provides closest forecasts. These different estimates may be derived due to inconsistencies in discount rate, growth rates and the other forecasted variables. Although inputs for earnings based models may be available to the investor and analysts through published statements, precise estimation of free cash flows may be better undertaken by the internal management. The estimation of value from more stable parameters as residual operating income and RNOA could be considered superior to the valuations from more volatile return on equity.

Keywords: earnings, cash flows, valuation, Residual Earnings Model (REM)

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Authors: Norhan El Dallal

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The MENA region is a challenging, rapid urbanizing region, with a special profile; culturally, socially, economically and environmentally. Despite the diversity between different countries of the MENA region they all share similar urban challenges where extensive interventions are crucial. A climate sensitive region as the MENA region requires special attention for development, adaptation and mitigation. Integrating climatic and environmental parameters into the planning process to create a responsive urban form is the aim of this research in which “Parametric Urbanism” as a trend serves as a tool to reach a more sustainable urban morphology. An attempt to parameterize the relation between the climate and the urban form in a detailed manner is the main objective of the thesis. The aim is relating the different passive approaches suitable for the MENA region with the design guidelines of each and every part of the planning phase. Various conceptual scenarios for the network pattern and block subdivision generation based on computational models are the next steps after the parameterization. These theoretical models could be applied on different climatic zones of the dense communities of the MENA region to achieve an energy efficient neighborhood or city with respect to the urban form, morphology, and urban planning pattern. A final criticism of the theoretical model is to be conducted showing the feasibility of the proposed solutions economically. Finally some push and pull policies are to be proposed to help integrate these solutions into the planning process.

Keywords: parametric urbanism, climate responsive, urban form, urban and regional studies

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Authors: Gómez R. Marta, Martín M. Jesús María

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The general aim of this paper identifies the areas of highest concentration of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) around the incinerator through the use of dispersion models. Atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for estimating and prevent the impact of emissions from a particular source in air quality. These models allow considering different factors that influence in air pollution: source characteristics, the topography of the receiving environment and weather conditions to predict the pollutants concentration. The PCDD/Fs, after its emission into the atmosphere, are deposited on water or land, near or far from emission source depending on the size of the associated particles and climatology. In this way, they are transferred and mobilized through environmental compartments. The modelling of PCDD/Fs was carried out with following tools: Atmospheric Dispersion Model Software (ADMS) and Surfer. ADMS is a dispersion model Gaussian plume, used to model the impact of air quality industrial facilities. And Surfer is a program of surfaces which is used to represent the dispersion of pollutants on a map. For the modelling of emissions, ADMS software requires the following input parameters: characterization of emission sources (source type, height, diameter, the temperature of the release, flow rate, etc.) meteorological and topographical data (coordinate system), mainly. The study area was set at 5 Km around the incinerator and the first population center nearest to focus PCDD/Fs emission is about 2.5 Km, approximately. Data were collected during one year (2013) both PCDD/Fs emissions of the incinerator as meteorology in the study area. The study has been carried out during period's average that legislation establishes, that is to say, the output parameters are taking into account the current legislation. Once all data required by software ADMS, described previously, are entered, and in order to make the representation of the spatial distribution of PCDD/Fs concentration and the areas affecting them, the modelling was proceeded. In general, the dispersion plume is in the direction of the predominant winds (Southwest and Northeast). Total levels of PCDD/Fs usually found in air samples, are from <2 pg/m3 for remote rural areas, from 2-15 pg/m3 in urban areas and from 15-200 pg/m3 for areas near to important sources, as can be an incinerator. The results of dispersion maps show that maximum concentrations are the order of 10-8 ng/m3, well below the values considered for areas close to an incinerator, as in this case.

Keywords: atmospheric dispersion, dioxin, furan, incinerator

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Authors: Bachir Chemani, Rachid Halfaoui

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The aim of study was to evaluate pressure distribution characteristics of the elastic textile bandages using two instrumental techniques: a prototype Instrument and a load Transference. The prototype instrument which simulates shape of real leg has pressure sensors which measure bandage pressure. Using this instrument, the results show that elastic textile bandages presents different pressure distribution characteristics and none produces a uniform distribution around lower limb. The load transference test procedure is used to determine whether a relationship exists between elastic textile bandage structure and pressure distribution characteristics. The test procedure assesses degree of load, directly transferred through a textile when loads series are applied to bandaging surface. A range of weave fabrics was produced using needle weaving machine and a sewing technique. A textile bandage was developed with optimal characteristics far superior pressure distribution than other bandages. From results, we find that theoretical pressure is not consistent exactly with practical pressure. It is important in this study to make a practical application for specialized nurses in order to verify the results and draw useful conclusions for predicting the use of this type of elastic band.

Keywords: textile, cotton, pressure, venous ulcers, elastic

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Authors: Lyka Selene Magnayi, Marcos Vinas, Roseanne Ramos

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As the real estate industry continually grows in the Philippines, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide advantages in generating spatial databases for efficient delivery of information and services. The real estate sector is not only providing qualitative data about real estate properties but also utilizes various spatial aspects of these properties for different applications such as hazard mapping and assessment. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) model and a spatial database of real estate properties in Fort Bonifacio, Taguig City are developed using GIS and SketchUp. Spatial datasets include political boundaries, buildings, road network, digital terrain model (DTM) derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR) image, Google Earth satellite imageries, and hazard maps. Multiple model layers were created based on property listings by a partner real estate company, including existing and future property buildings. Actual building dimensions, building facade, and building floorplans are incorporated in these 3D models for geovisualization. Hazard model layers are determined through spatial overlays, and different scenarios of hazards are also presented in the models. Animated maps and walkthrough videos were created for company presentation and evaluation. Model evaluation is conducted through client surveys requiring scores in terms of the appropriateness, information content, and design of the 3D models. Survey results show very satisfactory ratings, with the highest average evaluation score equivalent to 9.21 out of 10. The output maps and videos obtained passing rates based on the criteria and standards set by the intended users of the partner real estate company. The methodologies presented in this study were found useful and have remarkable advantages in the real estate industry. This work may be extended to automated mapping and creation of online spatial databases for better storage, access of real property listings and interactive platform using web-based GIS.

Keywords: geovisualization, geographic information systems, GIS, real estate, spatial database, three-dimensional model

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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a systematic observation from a defined time of origin up to certain failure or censor is known as survival data. Survival analysis is a major area of interest in biostatistics and biomedical researches. At the heart of understanding, the most scientific and medical research inquiries lie for a causality analysis. Thus, the main concern of this study is to investigate the causal effect of treatment on survival time conditional to the possibly time-varying covariates. The theory of causality often differs from the simple association between the response variable and predictors. A causal estimation is a scientific concept to compare a pragmatic effect between two or more experimental arms. To evaluate an average treatment effect on survival outcome, the estimating equation was adjusted for time-varying covariates under the semi-parametric transformation models. The proposed model intuitively obtained the consistent estimators for unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. In this article, the proposed method estimated an unbiased average causal effect of treatment on survival time of interest. The modified estimating equations of semiparametric transformation models have the advantage to include the time-varying effect in the model. Finally, the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators proved through the simulation and Stanford heart transplant real data. To this end, the average effect of a treatment on survival time estimated after adjusting for biases raised due to the high correlation of the left-truncation and possibly time-varying covariates. The bias in covariates was restored, by estimating density function for left-truncation. Besides, to relax the independence assumption between failure time and truncation time, the model incorporated the left-truncation variable as a covariate. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm iteratively obtained unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. To summarize idea, the ratio of cumulative hazards functions between the treated and untreated experimental group has a sense of the average causal effect for the entire population.

Keywords: a modified estimation equation, causal effect, semiparametric transformation models, survival analysis, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Jung-Hun Cho, Tae-Heon Moon, Jin-Hak Lee

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Land price contains the comprehensive characteristics of urban space, representing the social and economic features of the city. Accordingly, land price can be utilized as an indicator, which can identify the changes of spatial structure and socioeconomic variations caused by urban development. This study attempted to explore the changes in land price by a new road construction. Methodologically, it adopted Space Syntax, which can interpret urban spatial structure comprehensively, to identify the relationship between the forms of road networks and land price. The result of the regression analysis showed the ‘integration index’ of Space Syntax is statistically significant and has a strong correlation with land price. If the integration value is high, land price increases proportionally. Subsequently, using regression equation, it tried to predict the land price changes of each of the lots surrounding the roads that are newly opened. The research methods or study results have the advantage of predicting the changes in land price in an easy way. In addition, it will contribute to planners and project managers to establish relevant polices and smoothing urban regeneration projects through enhancing residents’ understanding by providing possible results and advantages in their land price before the execution of urban regeneration and development projects.

Keywords: space syntax, urban regeneration, spatial structure, official land price

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Authors: Lei Zhao, Zhe Yuan, Wenyue Kuang

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This paper studies two-warehouse inventory models for a deteriorating item considering that the demand is influenced by inventory levels. The problem mainly focuses on the optimal order policy and the optimal order cycle with inventory-level-dependent demand in two-warehouse system for retailers. It considers the different deterioration rates and the inventory holding costs in owned warehouse (OW) and rented warehouse (RW), and the conditions of transportation cost, allowed shortage and partial backlogging. Two inventory models are formulated: last-in first-out (LIFO) model and first-in-first-out (FIFO) model based on the policy choices of LIFO and FIFO, and a comparative analysis of LIFO model and FIFO model is made. The study finds that the FIFO policy is more in line with realistic operating conditions. Especially when the inventory holding cost of OW is high, and there is no difference or big difference between deterioration rates of OW and RW, the FIFO policy has better applicability. Meanwhile, this paper considers the differences between the effects of warehouse and shelf inventory levels on demand, and then builds retailers’ inventory decision model and studies the factors of the optimal order quantity, the optimal order cycle and the average inventory cost per unit time. To minimize the average total cost, the optimal dispatching policies are provided for retailers’ decisions.

Keywords: FIFO model, inventory-level-dependent, LIFO model, two-warehouse inventory

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Authors: Saraswati Verma, Ankit Batra

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In the modern day, structures are designed with a lot of complexities due to economical, aesthetical, and functional needs causing various levels of irregularities to be induced. In the past, several studies have repeatedly shown that irregular structures suffer more damage than regular structures during earthquakes. The present study makes an effort to study the contribution of the orientation of columns in the seismic behaviour of buildings with vertical irregularities namely, soft storey irregularity, mass irregularity and geometric irregularity. The response of the various models is analysed using sap2000 version 14. The parameters through which a comparative response is investigated are displacement, variation in the stiffness contribution, and inter-storey drift. Models with different configurations of column orientations were studied for each vertical irregularity and it was observed that column orientation contributed significantly in affecting a better seismic response. Square columns of the same cross-sectional area showed a good response as compared to that of rectangular columns. The study concludes that as displacement values for buildings with a soft storey and mass irregularity are very high, square columns could be used to minimise the effect of displacement in x and y-axis. In buildings with geometric irregularity, exterior column orientations can be played with to enhance the stiffness in the shorter direction to control the displacement and drift values in both x and y directions.

Keywords: soft storey, mass irregularity, geometric irregularity, column orientation, square column

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Authors: H. A. Lopez-Aguilar, E. A. Huerta-Reynoso, J. A. Gomez, J. A. Duarte-Moller, A. Perez-Hernandez

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Environmental performance of artisanal brick manufacture was studied by Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) methodology and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis in Mexico. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the environmental impact during artisanal brick manufacture. LCA cradle-to-gate approach was complemented with CFD analysis to carry out an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The lifecycle includes the stages of extraction, baking and transportation to the gate. The functional unit of this study was the production of a single brick in Chihuahua, Mexico and the impact categories studied were carcinogens, respiratory organics and inorganics, climate change radiation, ozone layer depletion, ecotoxicity, acidification/ eutrophication, land use, mineral use and fossil fuels. Laboratory techniques for fuel characterization, gas measurements in situ, and AP42 emission factors were employed in order to calculate gas emissions for inventory data. The results revealed that the categories with greater impacts are ecotoxicity and carcinogens. The CFD analysis is helpful in predicting the thermal diffusion and contaminants from a defined source. LCA-CFD synergy complemented the EIA and allowed us to identify the problem of thermal efficiency within the system.

Keywords: LCA, CFD, brick, artisanal

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Spandan Sahu, Amiya Kumar Pati, Kishanjit Kumar Khatua

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Rivers are the backbone of human civilization as well as one of the most important components of nature. In this paper, a method for predicting lateral depth-averaged velocity distribution in a two-flow braided compound channel is proposed. Experiments were conducted to study the boundary shear stress in the tip of the two flow path. The cross-section of the channel is divided into several panels to study the flow phenomenon on both the main channel and the flood plain. It can be inferred from the study that the flow coefficients get affected by boundary shear stress. In this study, the analytical solution of Shiono and knight (SKM) for lateral distributions of depth-averaged velocity and bed shear stress has been taken into account. The SKM is based on hydraulic parameters, which signify the bed friction factor (f), lateral eddy viscosity, and depth-averaged flow. While applying the SKM to different panels, the equations are solved considering the boundary conditions between panels. The boundary shear stress data, which are obtained from experimentation, are compared with CES software, which is based on quasi-one-dimensional Reynold's Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach.

Keywords: boundary shear stress, lateral depth-averaged velocity, two-flow braided compound channel, velocity distribution

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Authors: V. Hashim, P. N. Dileep

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Stent implantation is being seen as the most successful method to treat coronary artery diseases. Different types of stents are available in the market these days and the success of a stent implantation greatly depends on the proper selection of a suitable stent for a patient. Computer numerical simulation is the cost effective way to choose the compatible stent. Studies confirm that the design characteristics of stent do have great importance with regards to the pressure it can sustain, the maximum displacement it can produce, the developed stress concentration and so on. In this paper different designs of stent were analyzed together with balloon to optimize the stent and balloon system. Commercially available stent Palmaz-Schatz has been selected for analysis. Abaqus software is used to simulate the system. This work is the finite element analysis of the artery stent implant to find out the design factors affecting the stress and strain. The work consists of two phases. In the first phase, stress distribution of three models were compared - stent without balloon, stent with balloon of equal length and stent with balloon of extra length than stent. In second phase, three different design models of Palmaz-Schatz stent were compared by keeping the balloon length constant. The results obtained from analysis shows that, the design of the strut have strong effect on the stress distribution. A design with chamfered slots found better results. The length of the balloon also has influence on stress concentration of the stent. Increase in length of the balloon will reduce stress, but will increase dog boning effect.

Keywords: coronary stent, finite element analysis, restenosis, stress concentration

Procedia PDF Downloads 609

Authors: Peter Crow

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Boards and directors have been subjects of much scholarly research and public interest over several decades, more so since the succession of high profile company failures of the early 2000s. An array of research outputs including information, correlations, descriptions, models, hypotheses and theories have been reported. While some of this research has shed light on aspects of the board–performance relationship and on board tasks and behaviours, the nature and characteristics of the supposed board–performance relationship remain undetermined. That satisfactory explanations of how boards influence company performance have yet to emerge is a significant blind spot. Yet the board is ultimately responsible for company performance, in accordance with the wishes of shareholders. The aim of this paper is to explore corporate governance and board practice through the lens of strategic management, and to take tentative steps towards a new conception of corporate governance. The findings of a recent longitudinal multiple-case study designed to explore the board’s involvement in strategic management are reported. Qualitative and quantitative data was collected from two quasi-public large companies in New Zealand including from first-hand observations of boards in session, semi-structured interviews with chief executives and chairmen and the inspection of company and board documentation. A synthetic timeline framework was used to collate the financial, board structure, board activity and decision-making data, in order to provide a holistic perspective. Decision sequences were identified, and realist techniques of abduction and retroduction were iteratively applied to analyse the multi-year data set. Using several models previously proposed in the literature as a guide, conjectures were formed, tested and refined—the culmination of which was a provisional model of how boards can influence performance via strategic management. The model builds on both existing theoretical perspectives and theoretical models proposed in the corporate governance and strategic management literature. This paper seeks to add to the understanding of how boards can make meaningful contributions to value creation via strategic management, and to comment on the qualities of directors, social interactions in boardrooms and other circumstances within which influence might be possible given the highly contingent relationship between board activity and business performance outcomes.

Keywords: board practice, case study, corporate governance, strategic management

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Authors: M. Baldini, H. K. Jacobsen, M. Jaccard

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In light of the international efforts to comply with the Paris agreement and emission targets for future energy systems, Denmark and Canada are among the front-runner countries dealing with climate change. The experiences in the energy sector have seen both countries coping with trade-offs between investments in renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency, thus tackling the climate issue from the supply and demand side respectively. On the demand side, the industrial sector is going through a remarkable transformation, with implementation of energy efficiency measures, change of input fuel for end-use processes and forecasted electrification as main features under the spotlight. By looking at Canada and Denmark's experiences as pathfinders on the demand and supply approach to climate change, it is possible to obtain valuable experience that may be applied to other countries aiming at the same goal. This paper presents a comparative study on industrial energy efficiency between Canada and Denmark. The study focuses on technologies and system options, policy design and implementation and modelling methodologies when implementing industrial energy savings in optimization models in comparison to simulation models. The study identifies gaps and junctures in the approach towards climate change actions and, learning from each other, lessen the differences to further foster the adoption of energy efficiency measurements in the industrial sector, aiming at reducing energy consumption and, consequently, CO₂ emissions.

Keywords: industrial energy efficiency, comparative study, CO₂ reduction, energy system modelling

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Authors: Vallence Ngabo M., Leonard Atuhaire, Peter Clever Rutayisire

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The main aim of this study was to establish the differences in both the determinants of stunting and the causal mechanism through which the identified determinants influence stunting amongst male and female under-fives in Uganda. Literature shows that male children below the age of five years are at a higher risk of being stunted than their female counterparts. Specifically, studies in Uganda indicate that being a male child is positively associated with stunting, while being a female is negatively associated with stunting. Data for 904 males and 829 females under-fives was extracted form UDHS-2016 survey dataset. Key variables for this study were identified and used in generating relevant models and paths. Structural equation modeling techniques were used in their generalized form (GSEM). The generalized nature necessitated specifying both the family and link functions for each response variable in the system of the model. The sex of the child (b4) was used as a grouping factor and the height for age (HAZ) scores were used to construct the status for stunting of under-fives. The estimated models and path clearly indicated that the set of underlying factors that influence male and female under-fives respectively was different and the path through which they influence stunting was different. However, some of the determinants that influenced stunting amongst male under-fives also influenced stunting amongst the female under-fives. To reduce the stunting problem to the desirable state, it is important to consider the multifaceted and complex nature of the risk factors that influence stunting amongst the under-fives but, more importantly, consider the different sex-specific factors and their causal mechanism or paths through which they influence stunting.

Keywords: stunting, underfives, sex of the child, GSEM, causal mechanism

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Yassamina Berkane, Leila Kloul, Yoann Demoli

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Quality of life, environmental impact, congestion of mobility means, and infrastructures remain significant challenges for urban mobility. Solutions like car sharing, spatial redesign, eCommerce, and autonomous vehicles will likely increase the unit veh-km and the density of cars in urban traffic, thus reducing congestion. However, the impact of such solutions is not clear for researchers. Congestion arises from growing populations that must travel greater distances to arrive at similar locations (e.g., workplaces, schools) during the same time frame (e.g., rush hours). This paper first reviews the research and application cases of urban congestion methods through recent years. Rethinking the question of time, it then investigates people’s willingness and flexibility to adapt their arrival and departure times from workplaces. We use neural networks and methods of supervised learning to apply a new methodology for predicting peoples' intentions from their responses in a questionnaire. We created and distributed a questionnaire to more than 50 companies in the Paris suburb. Obtained results illustrate that our methodology can predict peoples' intentions to reschedule their activities (work, study, commerce, etc.).

Keywords: urban mobility, decongestion, machine learning, neural network

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Authors: Lakhya Jyoti Basumatary, M. J. Davidson

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Tailor Welded Blanks (TWBs) have established themselves to be a revolutionary and foremost integral part of the automotive and aerospace industries. Metals sheets with varied thickness, strength and coatings are welded together to form TWBs through friction stir welding and laser welding prior to stamping operations. The formability of the TWBs completely varies from those of conventional blanks due to the diverse strength levels of individual sheets which are made to deform under the same forming load uniformly throughout causing unequal and unsatisfactory deformation in the blank. Limiting Dome Height(LDH) test helps predicting the formability of each blanks and assists in determining the appropriate TWB. Finite Element Simulation of LDH test for both base material and TWBs was performed and analysed for both before and after the solution heat treatment. The comparison and validation of simulation results are done with the experimental data and correlated accordingly. The formability of solution heat treated TWBs had enhanced than those of blanks made from non-heat treated TWBs.

Keywords: tailor welded blanks, friction stir welding, limiting dome height test, finite element simulation

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Authors: Ibrahim Tiryakioglu, Mehmet Ali Ugur, Caglar Ozkaymak

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The development of GNSS technology has led to increasingly widespread and successful applications of GNSS surveys for monitoring crustal movements. However, multi-period GPS survey solutions have not been applied in monitoring vertical surface deformation. This study uses long-term GNSS time series that are required to determine vertical deformations. In recent years, the surface deformations that are parallel and semi-parallel to Bolvadin fault have occurred in Western Anatolia. These surface deformations have continued to occur in Bolvadin settlement area that is located mostly on alluvium ground. Due to these surface deformations, a number of cracks in the buildings located in the residential areas and breaks in underground water and sewage systems have been observed. In order to determine the amount of vertical surface deformations, two continuous GNSS stations have been established in the region. The stations have been operating since 2015 and 2017, respectively. In this study, GNSS observations from the mentioned two GNSS stations were processed with GAMIT/GLOBK (GNSS Analysis Massachusetts Institute of Technology/GLOBal Kalman) program package to create a coordinate time series. With the time series analyses, the GNSS stations’ behavior models (linear, periodical, etc.), the causes of these behaviors, and mathematical models were determined. The study results from the time series analysis of these two 2 GNSS stations shows approximately 50-80 mm/yr vertical movement.

Keywords: Bolvadin fault, GAMIT, GNSS time series, surface deformations

Procedia PDF Downloads 148