Search results for: markov renewal

Authors: M. I. Oshimagye, V. O. Ayuba, P. A. Annune

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The effect of Sublethal Concentrations of Parkia biglobosa pod extract on the growth and survival of Clarias gariepinus juveniles (mean weight 32.73g ± 0.0) were investigated under laboratory conditions for 8 weeks using the static renewal and continuous aeration system. Statistical analysis showed that fish exposed to various concentrations had significantly lower (P<0.05) growth rate than the control groups. The reduction in growth was observed to be directly proportional to increase in concentration. However, at 50 mg/L no significant depression in weight was observed.

Keywords: Clarias gariepinus, Parkia biglobosa, pod, weight

Procedia PDF Downloads 466

Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

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In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period

Procedia PDF Downloads 499

Authors: Kambiz Rasoulkhani, Jeanne Cole, Sybil Sharvelle, Ali Mostafavi

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Dual water distribution systems have been proposed as solutions to enhance the sustainability and resilience of urban water systems by improving performance and decreasing energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term resilience and robustness of dual water distribution systems versus singular water distribution systems under various stressors such as demand fluctuation, aging infrastructure, and funding constraints. To this end, the long-term dynamics of these infrastructure systems was captured using a simulation model that integrates institutional agency decision-making processes with physical infrastructure degradation to evaluate the long-term transformation of water infrastructure. A set of model parameters that varies for dual and singular distribution infrastructure based on the system attributes, such as pipes length and material, energy intensity, water demand, water price, average pressure and flow rate, as well as operational expenditures, were considered and input in the simulation model. Accordingly, the model was used to simulate various scenarios of demand changes, funding levels, water price growth, and renewal strategies. The long-term resilience and robustness of each distribution infrastructure were evaluated based on various performance measures including network average condition, break frequency, network leakage, and energy use. An ecologically-based resilience approach was used to examine regime shifts and tipping points in the long-term performance of the systems under different stressors. Also, Classification and Regression Tree analysis was adopted to assess the robustness of each system under various scenarios. Using data from the City of Fort Collins, the long-term resilience and robustness of the dual and singular water distribution systems were evaluated over a 100-year analysis horizon for various scenarios. The results of the analysis enabled: (i) comparison between dual and singular water distribution systems in terms of long-term performance, resilience, and robustness; (ii) identification of renewal strategies and decision factors that enhance the long-term resiliency and robustness of dual and singular water distribution systems under different stressors.

Keywords: complex systems, dual water distribution systems, long-term resilience performance, multi-agent modeling, sustainable and resilient water systems

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Authors: Catia S. A. Sima, K. Bousson

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Congestion in the Terminal Maneuvering Areas (TMAs) of larger airports impacts all aspects of air traffic flow, not only at national level but may also induce arrival delays at international level. Hence, there is a need to monitor appropriately the air traffic flow in TMAs so that efficient decisions may be taken to manage their occupancy rates. It would be desirable to physically increase the existing airspace to accommodate all existing demands, but this question is entirely utopian and, given this possibility, several studies and analyses have been developed over the past decades to meet the challenges that have arisen due to the dizzying expansion of the aeronautical industry. The main objective of the present paper is to propose concepts to manage and reduce the degree of uncertainty in the air traffic operations, maximizing the interest of all involved, ensuring a balance between demand and supply, and developing and/or adapting resources that enable a rapid and effective adaptation of measures to the current context and the consequent changes perceived in the aeronautical industry. A central task is to emphasize the increase in air traffic flow management capacity to the present day, taking into account not only a wide range of methodologies but also equipment and/or tools already available in the aeronautical industry. The efficient use of these resources is crucial as the human capacity for work is limited and the actors involved in all processes related to air traffic flow management are increasingly overloaded and, as a result, operational safety could be compromised. The methodology used to answer and/or develop the issues listed above is based on the advantages promoted by the application of Markov Chain principles that enable the construction of a simplified model of a dynamic network that describes the air traffic flow behavior anticipating their changes and eventual measures that could better address the impact of increased demand. Through this model, the proposed concepts are shown to have potentials to optimize the air traffic flow management combined with the operation of the existing resources at each moment and the circumstances found in each TMA, using historical data from the air traffic operations and specificities found in the aeronautical industry, namely in the Portuguese context.

Keywords: air traffic flow, terminal maneuvering area, TMA, air traffic management, ATM, Markov chains

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Authors: Lundqvist M., Alwin J., Levin L-A.

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Background: Assistance dogs are dogs trained to assist persons with functional impairment or chronic diseases. The assistance dog concept includes different types: guide dogs, hearing dogs, and service dogs. The service dog can further be divided into subgroups of physical services dogs, diabetes alert dogs, and seizure alert dogs. To examine the long-term effects of health care interventions, both in terms of resource use and health outcomes, cost-effectiveness analyses can be conducted. This analysis can provide important input to decision-makers when setting priorities. Little is known when it comes to the cost-effectiveness of assistance dogs. The study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of certified service or hearing dogs in comparison to regular companion dogs. Methods: The main data source for the analysis was the “service and hearing dog project”. It was a longitudinal interventional study with a pre-post design that incorporated fifty-five owners and their dogs. Data on all relevant costs affected by the use of a service dog such as; municipal services, health care costs, costs of sick leave, and costs of informal care were collected. Health-related quality of life was measured with the standardized instrument EQ-5D-3L. A decision-analytic Markov model was constructed to conduct the cost-effectiveness analysis. Outcomes were estimated over a 10-year time horizon. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio expressed as cost per gained quality-adjusted life year was the primary outcome. The analysis employed a societal perspective. Results: The result of the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that compared to a regular companion dog, a certified dog is cost-effective with both lower total costs [-32,000 USD] and more quality-adjusted life-years [0.17]. Also, we will present subgroup results analyzing the cost-effectiveness of physicals service dogs and diabetes alert dogs. Conclusions: The study shows that a certified dog is cost-effective in comparison with a regular companion dog for individuals with functional impairments or chronic diseases. Analyses of uncertainty imply that further studies are needed.

Keywords: service dogs, hearing dogs, health economics, Markov model, quality-adjusted, life years

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Authors: Konrad Steyn, Jacques Laubscher

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South African urban design solutions are mostly aligned with European and North American models that are often not appropriate in addressing some of this country’s challenges such as multiculturalism and decaying urban areas. Sustainable urban redevelopment in South Africa should be comprehensive in nature, sensitive in its manifestation, and should be robust and inclusive in order to achieve social relevance. This paper argues that the success of an urban design intervention is largely dependent on the public’s perceptions and expectations, and the way people participate in shaping their environments. The concept of sustainable urbanism is thus more comprehensive than – yet should undoubtedly include – methods of construction, material usage and climate control principles. The case study is a central element of this research paper. 725 Arcadia Street in Pretoria, was originally commissioned as a food market structure. A starkly contrasting existing modernist adjacent building forms the morphological background. Built in 1969, it is a valuable part of Pretoria’s modernist fabric. It was realised early on that the project should not be a mere localised architectural intervention, but rather an occasion to revitalise the neighbourhood through urban regeneration. Because of the complex and comprehensive nature of the site and rich cultural diversity of the area, a multi-faceted approach seemed the most appropriate response. The methodology for collating data consisted of a combination of literature reviews (regarding the historic original fauna and flora and current plants, observation (frequent site visits) and physical surveying on the neighbourhood level (physical location, connectivity to surrounding landmarks as well as movement systems and pedestrian flows). This was followed by an exploratory design phase, culminating in the present redevelopment proposal. Since built environment interventions are increasingly based on generalised normative guidelines, an approach focusing of urban acupuncture could serve as an alternative. Celebrating the specific urban condition, urban acupuncture offers an opportunity to influence the surrounding urban fabric and achieve urban renewal through physical, social and cultural mediation.

Keywords: neighbourhood, urban renewal, South African urban design solutions, sustainable urban redevelopment

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Authors: H. S. Kang

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Coupled electrical and optical model for conversion of electrical energy into coherent optical energy for transmitter-receiver link by solid state device is presented. Probability distribution for travelling laser beam switching time intervals and the number of switchings in the time interval is obtained. Selector function mapping is employed to regulate optical data transmission speed. It is established that regulated laser transmission from PhotoActive Laser transmitter follows principal of invariance. This considerably simplifies design of PhotoActive Laser Transmission networks.

Keywords: computational mathematics, finite difference Markov chain methods, sequence spaces, singularly perturbed differential equations

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Mende Mensa Sorato, Majid Davari, Abbas Kebriaeezadeh, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Tamiru Shibru, Behzad Fatemi

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Markov model, like cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model based simulation, is being used for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment. Stroke, angina, myocardial infarction (MI), cardiac arrest, and all-cause mortality were included in this model. Hypertension is a risk factor for a number of vascular and cardiac complications and CVD outcomes. Objective: This systematic review was conducted to evaluate the comprehensiveness of this model across different regions globally. Methods: We searched articles written in the English language from PubMed/Medline, Ovid/Medline, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google scholar with a systematic search query. Results: Thirteen cohort studies involving a total of 2,165,770 (1,666,554 hypertensive adult population and 499,226 adults with treatment-resistant hypertension) were included in this scoping review. Hypertension is clearly associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality, unstable angina, stable angina, MI, heart failure (HF), sudden cardiac death, transient ischemic attack, ischemic stroke, subarachnoid hemorrhage, intracranial hemorrhage, peripheral arterial disease (PAD), and abdominal aortic aneurism (AAA). Association between HF and hypertension is variable across regions. Treatment resistant hypertension is associated with a higher relative risk of developing major cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality when compared with non-resistant hypertension. However, it is not included in the previous CVD policy model. Conclusion: The CVD policy model used can be used in most regions for the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment. However, hypertension is highly associated with HF in Latin America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, it is important to consider HF in the CVD policy model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment in these regions. We do not suggest the inclusion of PAD and AAA in the CVD policy model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment due to a lack of sufficient evidence. Researchers should consider the effect of treatment-resistant hypertension either by including it in the basic model or during setting the model assumptions.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease policy model, cost-effectiveness analysis, hypertension, systematic review, twelve major cardiovascular events

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Authors: Mengying Du, Xiang Chen

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‘villages-in-city’ is the unique product of rapid urbanization in China which embodies the contradiction between historical context and urbanization. This article mainly analyzes the corresponding strategy to the common problems such as urban texture, historical context, community structure, and industry pattern during the regeneration of ‘villages-in-city’ of Luojiazhuang. Taking government investment, community demands, the trend of urban renewal and transformation models of the ‘villages-in-city’ into consideration, the author propose a mechanism to balance those factors, and to achieve mutual confirmation with the instance of Luojiazhuang.

Keywords: community demands, historical context, villages-in-city, urbanization

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Authors: Cristóbal Moënne-Loccoz, Rodrigo C. Vergara, Vladimir López, Domingo Mery, Diego Cosmelli

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Our daily interaction with computational interfaces is plagued of situations in which we go from inexperienced users to experts through self-motivated exploration of the same task. In many of these interactions, we must learn to find our way through a sequence of decisions and actions before obtaining the desired result. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion so that a specific sequence of actions must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as they become experts in the use of such interfaces, do users adopt specific search and learning strategies? Moreover, if so, can we use this information to follow the process of expertise development and, eventually, predict future actions? This would be a critical step towards building truly adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Furthermore, it could provide a window into potential mechanisms underlying decision-making behavior in real world scenarios. Here we tackle this question using a simple game interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT) sequential decision-making task. Participants have to explore the interface and discover an underlying concept-icon mapping in order to complete the game. We develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based approach whereby a set of stereotyped, hierarchically related search behaviors act as hidden states. Using this model, we are able to track the decision-making process as participants explore, learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into such stereotyped strategies is sufficient to capture a host of exploratory and learning behaviors. Moreover, using the modular architecture of stereotyped strategies as a Mixture of Experts, we are able to simultaneously ask the experts about the user's most probable future actions. We show that for those participants that learn the task, it becomes possible to predict their next decision, above chance, approximately halfway through the game. Our long-term goal is, on the basis of a better understanding of real-world decision-making processes, to inform the construction of interfaces that can establish dynamic conversations with their users in order to facilitate the development of expertise.

Keywords: behavioral modeling, expertise acquisition, hidden markov models, sequential decision-making

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

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In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Marcov chain, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, strong stability

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Authors: An-Shik Yang, Chih-Yung Wen, Chiang-Ho Cheng, Yu-Hsuan Juan

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The objective of this study is to conduct computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations for evaluating the cooling efficacy from vegetation implanted in a public park in the Taipei, Taiwan. To probe the impacts of park renewal by means of adding three pavilions and supplementary green areas on urban microclimates, the simulated results have revealed that the park having a higher percentage of green coverage ratio (GCR) tended to experience a better cooling effect. These findings can be used to explore the effects of different greening modifications on urban environments for achieving an effective thermal comfort in urban public spaces.

Keywords: CFD simulations, Green Coverage Ratio, Urban heat island, Urban Public Park

Procedia PDF Downloads 454

Authors: S. Malarvizhi, S. Sadiq Basha, M. Santhosh Kumar, K. Saravanan, R. Sasikumar, R. Satheesh

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This is a web based application which provides authorization for the vehicle identification and registration. It also provides mutual authentication between the police and users in order to avoid misusage. The QR code generation in this application overcomes the difficulty in the manual registration of the vehicle documents. This generated QR code is placed in the number plates of the vehicles. The QR code is scanned using the QR Reader installed in the smart devices. The police officials can check the vehicle details and file cases on accidents, theft and traffic rules violations using QR code. In addition to vehicle insurance payments and renewals, the renewal alert is sent to the vehicle owner about payment deadline. The non-permitted vehicles can be blocked in the next check-post by sending the alert messages.

Keywords: QR code, QR reader, registration, authentication, idenfication

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Authors: Yifan Dong, Xincheng Pu

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Rural settlements originate from the accumulation of residential building elements, and their agglomeration forms the settlement pattern and defines the relationship between the settlement and the inside and outside. The settlement boundary is an important part of the settlement pattern. Compared with the simplification of the urban settlement boundary, the settlement of the country is more complex, fuzzy and uncertain, and then presents a rich and diverse boundary morphological phenomenon. In this paper, China traditional rural settlements plane boundary as the research object, using fractal theory and fractal dimension method, quantitative analysis of planar shape boundary settlement, and expounds the research for the architectural design, ancient architecture protection and renewal and development and the significance of the protection of settlements.

Keywords: rural settlement, border, fractal, quantification

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Authors: Dorit Alt, Nirit Raichel

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Educational practice is continually subjected to renewal needs, due mainly to the growing proportion of information communication technology, globalization of education, and the pursuit of quality. These types of renewal needs require developing updated instructional and assessment practices that put a premium on adaptability to the emerging requirements of present society. However, university instruction is criticized for not coping with these new challenges while continuing to exemplify the traditional instruction. In order to overcome this critical inadequacy between current educational goals and instructional methods, the LLAF consortium (including 16 members from 8 countries) is collaborating to create a curricular reform for lifelong learning (LLL) in teachers' education, health care and other applied fields. This project aims to achieve its objectives by developing, and piloting models for training students in LLL and promoting meaningful learning activities that could integrate knowledge with the personal transferable skills. LLAF has created a practical guide for teachers containing updated pedagogical strategies and assessment tools based on the constructivist approach for learning. This presentation will be limited to teachers' education only and to the contribution of a pre-pilot research aimed at providing a scale designed to measure constructivist activities in higher education learning environments. A mix-method approach was implemented in two phases to construct the scale: The first phase included a qualitative content analysis involving both deductive and inductive category applications of students' observations. The results foregrounded eight categories: knowledge construction, authenticity, multiple perspectives, prior knowledge, in-depth learning, teacher- student interaction, social interaction and cooperative dialogue. The students' descriptions of their classes were formulated as 36 items. The second phase employed structural equation modeling (SEM). The scale was submitted to 597 undergraduate students. The goodness of fit of the data to the structural model yielded sufficient fit results. This research elaborates the body of literature by adding a category of in-depth learning which emerged from the content analysis. Moreover, the theoretical category of social activity has been extended to include two distinctive factors: cooperative dialogue and social interaction. Implications of these findings for the LLAF project are discussed.

Keywords: constructivist learning, higher education, mix-methodology, lifelong learning

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Authors: Konstantopoulos N., Samitas A., E. Vasileiou, Kinias I.

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This article introduces a new view on the month effect study. Applying a Markov Switching Regime model on data from the Greek Time Deposits (TDs) market for the time span January 2003 to October 2013, we examine if there is a month effect on the Greek banking industry. The empirical findings provide convincing evidence for a new king of monthly anomaly. The explanation for the specific abnormality may be the upward deposits window dressing. Further research should be done in order to examine if the specific calendar effect exists in other countries or it is only a Greek phenomenon.

Keywords: calendar anomalies, banking crisis, month effect, Greek banking industry

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Authors: Viviana Ventre, Giacomo Di Tollo, Roberta Martino

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The portfolio selection problem includes the evaluation of many criteria that are difficult to compare directly and is characterized by uncertain elements. The portfolio selection problem can be modeled as a group decision problem in which several experts are invited to present their assessment. In this context, it is important to study and analyze the process of reaching a consensus among group members. Indeed, due to the various diversities among experts, reaching consensus is not necessarily always simple and easily achievable. Moreover, the concept of consensus is accompanied by the concept of false consensus, which is particularly interesting in the dynamics of group decision-making processes. False consensus can alter the evaluation and selection phase of the alternative and is the consequence of the decision maker's inability to recognize that his preferences are conditioned by subjective structures. The present work aims to investigate the dynamics of consensus attainment in a group decision problem in which equivalent portfolios are proposed. In particular, the study aims to analyze the impact of the subjective structure of the decision-maker during the evaluation and selection phase of the alternatives. Therefore, the experimental framework is divided into three phases. In the first phase, experts are sent to evaluate the characteristics of all portfolios individually, without peer comparison, arriving independently at the selection of the preferred portfolio. The experts' evaluations are used to obtain individual Analytical Hierarchical Processes that define the weight that each expert gives to all criteria with respect to the proposed alternatives. This step provides insight into how the decision maker's decision process develops, step by step, from goal analysis to alternative selection. The second phase includes the description of the decision maker's state through Markov chains. In fact, the individual weights obtained in the first phase can be reviewed and described as transition weights from one state to another. Thus, with the construction of the individual transition matrices, the possible next state of the expert is determined from the individual weights at the end of the first phase. Finally, the experts meet, and the process of reaching consensus is analyzed by considering the single individual state obtained at the previous stage and the false consensus bias. The work contributes to the study of the impact of subjective structures, quantified through the Analytical Hierarchical Process, and how they combine with the false consensus bias in group decision-making dynamics and the consensus reaching process in problems involving the selection of equivalent portfolios.

Keywords: analytical hierarchical process, consensus building, false consensus effect, markov chains, portfolio selection problem

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Authors: Gan Lu, Xu Lei

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This is an era when urban village is disappearing in China. A series of social phenomenon presented in post-urban village era is forcing rethinking of the future of urban village. Existing monotonous urban renewal mode based on gentrification is questioned, and the social values of urban village has been gaining increasing attention while the daily life and spatial power of underclass is being focused on. Based on the consensus on the positive meaning of urban village phenomenon, social sectors have taken amount of improvement experiments to explore the possibility of modern transition of urban village on the premise of existence. These experiments revealed that urban tremendous changes impact a lot on social daily life, and pointed out that it is necessary to bring up the responsibility of architects and the definition of urban for discussion again.

Keywords: post-urban village era, gentrification, social value, daily life, improvement experiment.

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Authors: Jeremie Coullon, Robert J. Webber

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We introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sam-pler for infinite-dimensional inverse problems. Our sam-pler is based on the affine invariant ensemble sampler, which uses interacting walkers to adapt to the covariance structure of the target distribution. We extend this ensem-ble sampler for the first time to infinite-dimensional func-tion spaces, yielding a highly efficient gradient-free MCMC algorithm. Because our ensemble sampler does not require gradients or posterior covariance estimates, it is simple to implement and broadly applicable. In many Bayes-ian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) meth-ods are needed to approximate distributions on infinite-dimensional function spaces, for example, in groundwater flow, medical imaging, and traffic flow. Yet designing efficient MCMC methods for function spaces has proved challenging. Recent gradi-ent-based MCMC methods preconditioned MCMC methods, and SMC methods have improved the computational efficiency of functional random walk. However, these samplers require gradi-ents or posterior covariance estimates that may be challenging to obtain. Calculating gradients is difficult or impossible in many high-dimensional inverse problems involving a numerical integra-tor with a black-box code base. Additionally, accurately estimating posterior covariances can require a lengthy pilot run or adaptation period. These concerns raise the question: is there a functional sampler that outperforms functional random walk without requir-ing gradients or posterior covariance estimates? To address this question, we consider a gradient-free sampler that avoids explicit covariance estimation yet adapts naturally to the covariance struc-ture of the sampled distribution. This sampler works by consider-ing an ensemble of walkers and interpolating and extrapolating between walkers to make a proposal. This is called the affine in-variant ensemble sampler (AIES), which is easy to tune, easy to parallelize, and efficient at sampling spaces of moderate dimen-sionality (less than 20). The main contribution of this work is to propose a functional ensemble sampler (FES) that combines func-tional random walk and AIES. To apply this sampler, we first cal-culate the Karhunen–Loeve (KL) expansion for the Bayesian prior distribution, assumed to be Gaussian and trace-class. Then, we use AIES to sample the posterior distribution on the low-wavenumber KL components and use the functional random walk to sample the posterior distribution on the high-wavenumber KL components. Alternating between AIES and functional random walk updates, we obtain our functional ensemble sampler that is efficient and easy to use without requiring detailed knowledge of the target dis-tribution. In past work, several authors have proposed splitting the Bayesian posterior into low-wavenumber and high-wavenumber components and then applying enhanced sampling to the low-wavenumber components. Yet compared to these other samplers, FES is unique in its simplicity and broad applicability. FES does not require any derivatives, and the need for derivative-free sam-plers has previously been emphasized. FES also eliminates the requirement for posterior covariance estimates. Lastly, FES is more efficient than other gradient-free samplers in our tests. In two nu-merical examples, we apply FES to challenging inverse problems that involve estimating a functional parameter and one or more scalar parameters. We compare the performance of functional random walk, FES, and an alternative derivative-free sampler that explicitly estimates the posterior covariance matrix. We conclude that FES is the fastest available gradient-free sampler for these challenging and multimodal test problems.

Keywords: Bayesian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo, infinite-dimensional inverse problems, dimensionality reduction

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Authors: Amal Ezzidani, Abdelghani Ben Tahar, Mohamed Hanini

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A sequence of finite tandem queue is considered for this study. Each one has a single server, which operates under the egalitarian processor sharing discipline. External customers arrive at each queue according to a renewal input process and having a general service times distribution. Upon completing service, customers leave the current queue and enter to the next. Under mild assumptions, including critical data, we prove the existence and the uniqueness of the fluid solution. For asymptotic behavior, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the invariant state and the convergence to this invariant state. In the end, we establish the convergence of a correctly normalized state process to a fluid limit characterized by a system of algebraic and integral equations.

Keywords: fluid limit, fluid model, measure valued process, processor sharing, tandem queue

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Authors: Gulsen Yilmaz

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Istanbul’s population has jumped by over 1 million in the past four years, to a level surpassing the overall population of 64 provinces in the country, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). In this paper, Istanbul's population change and migration effects can be examined in detail Tarlabasi neighborhood cultural center of the city of Istanbul, Istiklal Street, which is located a few hundred meters away. Tarlabasi the end of the nineteenth century in the historic district with built in the early twentieth century, there are four or five storey historic buildings. Tarlabasi, here come from southeastern Turkey and the illegal African immigrants living in Roma origin by the Kurds as a residential area is used. In this area to improve the quality of life for urban renewal projects have been initiated. The aim of this paper is to explore the spatial effects of demographic change and migration with Tarlabasi example.

Keywords: migration, immigration, Tarlabaşı, urban transformation

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Authors: G. K. Abdigalieva, Z. N. Ismagambetova, T. H. Gabitov, K. A. Biazdikova, A. A. Mukhanbet , B. E. Moldagaliyev, Saira Shamahay

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In the article was shown attitude to contemporary traditional culture and cultural heritage preservation issues and features of further development of a culture. Concerning innovation, appeal to cultural heritage, ability of reception of a culture and cultural diffusion in the process of globalization, it is offered further positive development of Kazakhstan’s based human experience and achieved with time. System of traditions is considered as a phenomenon which describes unity, harmony and stability of social body. Contradictions of contemporary culture and civilization, processes of tradition and innovation, cultural changes, and creativities are considered as second side of a society development. Innovation is analyzed as a method of renewal of a culture, tradition and innovation are considered as universal feature of any culture.

Keywords: culture, civilization, innovation, tradition, reality, customs, social relations, morality, values

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Authors: Ali Mustafa Elshawesh, Mohamed Abdulali

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The paper presents an approach to dimension circuit switched networks and find the relationship between the parameters of the circuit switched networks on the condition of specific probability of call blocking. Our work is creating a Simulation code based on Erlang (B) formula to draw graphs which show two curves for each graph; one of simulation and the other of calculated. These curves represent the relationships between average number of calls and average call duration with the probability of call blocking. This simulation code facilitates to select the appropriate parameters for circuit switched networks.

Keywords: Erlang B formula, call blocking, telephone system dimension, Markov model, link capacity

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Authors: Daleesha M. Viswanathan, Sumam Mary Idicula

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Dynamic hand gestures are an intrinsic component in sign language communication. Extracting spatial temporal features of the hand gesture trajectory plays an important role in a dynamic gesture recognition system. Finding a discrete feature descriptor for the motion trajectory based on the orientation feature is the main concern of this paper. Kalman filter algorithm and Hidden Markov Models (HMM) models are incorporated with this recognition system for hand trajectory tracking and for spatial temporal classification, respectively.

Keywords: orientation features, discrete feature vector, HMM., Indian sign language

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Authors: F. A. Al-Awadhi, D. Al-Hulail

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In this study, we applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to detect single and multiple change points for daily earthquake body wave magnitude. The change point analysis is used in both backward (off-line) and forward (on-line) statistical research. In this study, it is used with the backward approach. Different types of change parameters are considered (mean, variance or both). The posterior model and the conditional distributions for single and multiple change points are derived and implemented using BUGS software. The model is applicable for any set of data. The sensitivity of the model is tested using different prior and likelihood functions. Using Mb data, we concluded that during January 2002 and December 2003, three changes occurred in the mean magnitude of Mb in Kuwait and its vicinity.

Keywords: multiple change points, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, earthquake magnitude, hierarchical Bayesian mode

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Authors: Dini Dewi Heniarti

Abstract:

This One of criminal sanctions that are often imposed by the judge is imprisonment. The issue on the imposition of imprisonment has been subject of contentious debate and criticism among various groups for a long time. In practice, the problematics of imprisonment lead to complicated problems. The impact of the reckless imposition of the imprisonment includes among others overcapacity of the correctional institution and increasing crimes within the correctional facilities. Therefore, there is a need for renewal of the existing condemnation paradigm, considering the developing phenomena associated with the penal imposition. Imprisonment as one element of the Indonesian penal system is an important and integral part of the other elements. The philosophy of the current penal system, which still refers to the Criminal Code, still carries the values of retaliation and fault-finding toward the offender. Therefore, it is important to reconstruct a new thought in order to realize a penal system that is represented in the formulation of a more humanistic criminal sanction

Keywords: criminal code, criminal sanction, Indonesian legal system, reconstruction of thought

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Authors: Li Zhou, Yanmei Fang

Abstract:

With current technology, images and videos can be obtained more easily than ever. It is so easy to manipulate these digital multimedia information when obtained, and that the content or source of the image and video could be easily tampered. In this paper, we propose to identify the image and video frame by the texture-based approach, e.g. Markov Transition Probability (MTP), which is in space domain, DCT domain and DWT domain, respectively. In the experiment, image and video frame database is constructed, and is used to train and test the classifier Support Vector Machine (SVM). Experiment results show that the texture-based approach has good performance. In order to verify the experiment result, and testify the universality and robustness of algorithm, we build a random testing dataset, the random testing result is in keeping with above experiment.

Keywords: multimedia forensics, video frame, LBP, MTP, SVM

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Authors: Ibrahim Ozkan

Abstract:

In this study, a cross-layer design which combines adaptive modulation and coding (AMC) and hybrid automatic repeat request (HARQ) techniques for a cooperative wireless network is investigated analytically. Previous analyses of such systems in the literature are confined to the case where the fading channel is independent at each retransmission, which can be unrealistic unless the channel is varying very fast. On the other hand, temporal channel correlation can have a significant impact on the performance of HARQ systems. In this study, utilizing a Markov channel model which accounts for the temporal correlation, the performance of non-cooperative and cooperative networks are investigated in terms of packet loss rate and throughput metrics for Chase combining HARQ strategy.

Keywords: cooperative network, adaptive modulation and coding, hybrid ARQ, correlated fading

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In this paper, the joint optimization of the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ), safety stock level, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is presented for a partially observable, deteriorating system subject to random failure. The demand is stochastic and it is described by a Poisson process. The stochastic model is developed and the optimization problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. A modification of the policy iteration algorithm is developed to find the optimal policy. A numerical example is presented to compare the optimal policy with the policy considering zero safety stock.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, economic manufacturing quantity, safety stock, stochastic demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 444