Search results for: affective-analytical decision framework

Authors: Patricia Heredia, Isabel Saz, Marta Fernández

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This article proposes that the decision regarding exporting and the choice of export channel are nested and non-independent decisions. We assume that firms make two sequential decisions before arriving at their final choice: the decision to access foreign markets and the decision about the type of channel. This hierarchical perspective of the choices involved in the process is appealing for two reasons. First, it supports the idea that people have a limited analytical capacity. Managers often break down a complex decision into a hierarchical process because this makes it more manageable. Secondly, it recognizes that important differences exist between entry modes. In light of the above, the objective of this study is to test different entry mode choice processes: independent decisions and nested and non-independent decisions. To do this, the methodology estimates and compares the following two models: (i) a simultaneous single-stage model with three entry mode choices (using a multinomial logit model); ii) a two-stage model with the export decision preceding the channel decision using a sequential logit model. The study uses resource-based factors in determining these decision processes concerning internationalization and the study carries out empirical analysis using a DOC Rioja sample of 177 firms.Using the Akaike and Schwarz Information Criteria, the empirical evidence supports the existence of a nested structure, where the decision about exporting precedes the export mode decision. The implications and contributions of the findings are discussed.

Keywords: sequential logit model, two-stage choice process, export mode, wine industry

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Authors: Luca Martignoni

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The increasing usage of clinical decision support systems in healthcare and the demand for software that enables doctors to take informed decisions is changing everyday clinical practice. However, as technology advances not only are the benefits of technology growing, but so are the potential risks. A growing danger is the doctors’ over-reliance on the proposed decision of the clinical decision support system, leading towards deskilling and rash decisions by doctors. In that regard, identifying doctors' requirements for software and developing approaches to prevent technological over-reliance is of utmost importance. In this paper, we report the results of a design science research study, focusing on the requirements and design principles of ultrasound software. We conducted a total of 15 interviews with experts about poten-tial ultrasound software functions. Subsequently, we developed meta-requirements and design principles to design future clinical decision support systems efficiently and as free from the occur-rence of technological over-reliance as possible.

Keywords: clinical decision support systems, technological over-reliance, design principles, design science research

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Authors: Adel Ali Elshaibani

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Risk management indicators augment the reporting infrastructure, particularly for the board and senior management, to identify, monitor, and manage risks. This enhancement facilitates improved decision-making throughout the banking organization. Decision tree analysis is a tool that visually outlines potential outcomes, costs, and consequences of complex decisions. It is particularly beneficial for analyzing quantitative data and making decisions based on numerical values. By calculating the expected value of each outcome, decision tree analysis can help assess the best course of action. In the context of banking, decision tree analysis can assist lenders in evaluating a customer’s creditworthiness, thereby preventing losses. However, applying these tools in developing countries may face several limitations, such as data availability, lack of technological infrastructure and resources, lack of skilled professionals, cultural factors, and cost. Moreover, decision trees can create overly complex models that do not generalize well to new data, known as overfitting. They can also be sensitive to small changes in the data, which can result in different tree structures and can become computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. In conclusion, while risk management indicators and decision tree analysis are beneficial for decision-making in banks, their effectiveness is contingent upon how they are implemented and utilized by the board of directors, especially in the context of developing countries. It’s important to consider these limitations when planning to implement these tools in developing countries.

Keywords: risk management indicators, decision tree analysis, developing countries, board of directors, bank performance, risk management strategy, banking institutions

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Authors: Ian McCulloh, Andrew Placona, Darren Stewart, Daniel Gause, Kevin Kiernan, Morgan Stuart, Christopher Zinner, Laura Cartwright

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An estimated 22-25% of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. As many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.

Keywords: decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant

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Authors: Kolade Olawande Owoeye, George R. S. Weir

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The widespread of terrorism and extremism activities on the internet has become a major threat to the government and national securities due to their potential dangers which have necessitated the need for intelligence gathering via web and real-time monitoring of potential websites for extremist activities. However, the manual classification for such contents is practically difficult or time-consuming. In response to this challenge, an automated classification system called composite technique was developed. This is a computational framework that explores the combination of both semantics and syntactic features of textual contents of a web. We implemented the framework on a set of extremist webpages dataset that has been subjected to the manual classification process. Therein, we developed a classification model on the data using J48 decision algorithm, this is to generate a measure of how well each page can be classified into their appropriate classes. The classification result obtained from our method when compared with other states of arts, indicated a 96% success rate in classifying overall webpages when matched against the manual classification.

Keywords: extremist, web pages, classification, semantics, posit

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Authors: Darius Danesh, Michael J. Ryan, Alireza Abbasi

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Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible option to improve the decision-making outcomes in the organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision making, project portfolio management

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Authors: Yong Bum Shin

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This case focuses on Weighted additive difference, Conjunctive, Disjunctive, and Elimination by aspects methodologies in consumer decision-making models and the Simple additive weighting (SAW) approach in the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) area. Most decision-making models illustrate that the rank reversal phenomenon is unpreventable. This paper presents that rank reversal occurs in popular managerial methods such as Weighted Additive Difference (WAD), Conjunctive Method, Disjunctive Method, Elimination by Aspects (EBA) and MCDM methods as well as such as the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and finally Unified Commensurate Multiple (UCM) models which successfully addresses these rank reversal problems in most popular MCDM methods in decision-making area.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making, rank inconsistency, unified commensurate multiple, analytic hierarchy process

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Authors: A. Bouamrane, M. T. Bouziane, K. Boutebba, Y. Djebbar

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This paper aims to develop a decision support tool to provide solutions to the problems of sewer networks management/maintenance in order to assist the manager to sort sections upon priority of intervention by taking account of the technical, economic, social and environmental standards as well as the managers’ strategy. This solution uses the Analytic Network Process (ANP) developed by Thomas Saaty, coupled with a set of tools for modelling and collecting integrated data from a geographic information system (GIS). It provides to the decision maker a tool adapted to the reality on the ground and effective in usage compared to the means and objectives of the manager.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision support, maintenance, Geographic Information System, modelling

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Authors: Adriana Avila Zuniga Nordfjeld

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This paper provides a literature review to document the state of the art with respect to handling 'human bias' in decision making within the established quality management systems (QMS) and LEAN theory, in the context of shipbuilding. Previous research shows that in shipbuilding there is a huge deviation from the planned man-hours under the project management to the actual man-hours used because of errors in planning and reworks caused by human bias in the information flows among others. This reduces the efficiency and increases operational costs. Thus, the research question is how QMS and LEAN handle biases. The findings show the gap in studying the integration of methods to handle human bias in decision making into QMS and lean, not only within shipbuilding but also in general. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed for researchers and practitioners in the areas of decision making QMS, LEAN, and future research is suggested.

Keywords: human bias, decision making, LEAN shipbuilding, quality management systems

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Authors: Lien-Fa Lin, Yung-Ming Li, Fu-Shun Hsieh

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With the advancement of information technology and development of group commerce, people have obviously changed in their lifestyle. However, group commerce faces some challenging problems. The products or services provided by vendors do not satisfactorily reflect customers’ opinions, so that the sale and revenue of group commerce gradually become lower. On the other hand, the process for a formed customer group to reach group-purchasing consensus is time-consuming and the final decision is not the best choice for each group members. In this paper, we design a social decision support mechanism, by using group discussion message to recommend suitable options for group members and we consider social influence and personal preference to generate option ranking list. The proposed mechanism can enhance the group purchasing decision making efficiently and effectively and venders can provide group products or services according to the group option ranking list.

Keywords: social network, group decision, text mining, group commerce

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Authors: Nooshin Salari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we propose a condition-based maintenance policy for multi-unit systems considering the existence of economic dependency among units. We consider a system composed of N identical units, where each unit deteriorates independently. Deterioration process of each unit is modeled as a three-state continuous time homogeneous Markov chain with two working states and a failure state. The average production rate of units varies in different working states and demand rate of the system is constant. Units are inspected at equidistant time epochs, and decision regarding performing maintenance is determined by the number of units in the failure state. If the total number of units in the failure state exceeds a critical level, maintenance is initiated, where units in failed state are replaced correctively and deteriorated state units are maintained preventively. Our objective is to determine the optimal number of failed units to initiate maintenance minimizing the long run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. A numerical example is developed to demonstrate the proposed policy and the comparison with the corrective maintenance policy is presented.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance optimization, semi-Markov decision process, production

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Authors: D. Bąk-Grabowska, K. Grzesik, A. Iwanicka, A. Jagoda

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The process of human resources management in the structures of corporate groups demonstrates certain specificity, resulting from the division of decision-making and executive competencies, which occurs within these structures between a parent company and its subsidiaries. The subprocess of employee assessment is considered crucial, since it provides information for the implementation of personnel function. The empirical studies conducted in corporate groups, within which at least one company is located in Poland, confirmed the critical significance of employee assessment systems in the process of human resources management in corporate groups. Parent companies, most often, retain their decision-making authority within the framework of the discussed process and introduce uniform employee assessment and personnel controlling systems to subsidiary companies. However, the instruments for employee assessment applied in corporate groups do not present such specificity.

Keywords: corporate groups, employee periodical assessment system, holding, human resources management

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

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The machinability of workpieces (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron) in turning operation has been carried out using different types of cutting tool (conventional, cutting tool with holes in toolholder and cutting tool filled up with composite material) under dry conditions on a turning machine at different stages of spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). Experimentation was performed as per Taguchi’s orthogonal array. To evaluate the relative importance of factors affecting surface roughness the single decision tree (SDT), Decision tree forest (DTF) and Group method of data handling (GMDH) were applied.

Keywords: decision tree forest, GMDH, surface roughness, Taguchi method, turning process

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Authors: Muhammad Saqlain, Poom Kumam

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Language being an abstract system and creative act, is quite complicated as its meaning varies depending on the context. The context is determined by the empirical knowledge of a person, which is derived from observation and experience. About further subdivided attributes, the decision-making challenges may entail quantitative and qualitative factors. However, because there is no norm for putting a numerical value on language, existing approaches cannot carry out the operations of linguistic knowledge. The assigning of mathematical values (fuzzy, intuitionistic, and neutrosophic) to any decision-making problem; without considering any rule of linguistic knowledge is ambiguous and inaccurate. Thus, this paper aims to provide a generic model for these issues. This paper provides the linguistic set structure of the fuzzy hypersoft set (FLHSS) to solve decision-making issues. We have proposed the definition some basic operations like AND, NOT, OR, AND, compliment, negation, etc., along with Topology and examples, and properties. Secondly, the operational laws for the fuzzy linguistic hypersoft set have been proposed to deal with the decision-making issues. Implementing proposed aggregate operators and operational laws can be used to convert linguistic quantifiers into numerical values. This will increase the accuracy and precision of the fuzzy hypersoft set structure to deal with decision-making issues.

Keywords: linguistic quantifiers, aggregate operators, multi-criteria decision making (mcdm)., fuzzy topology

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Authors: Mohammed Hasan Salahat, Stave Wade

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This paper presents an application of a “Systematic Soft Domain Driven Design Framework” as a soft systems approach to domain-driven design of information systems development. The framework combining techniques from Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), the Unified Modeling Language (UML), and an implementation pattern knows as ‘Naked Objects’. This framework have been used in action research projects that have involved the investigation and modeling of business processes using object-oriented domain models and the implementation of software systems based on those domain models. Within this framework, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is used as a guiding methodology to explore the problem situation and to develop the domain model using UML for the given business domain. The framework is proposed and evaluated in our previous works, and a real case study ‘Information Retrieval System for Academic Research’ is used, in this paper, to show further practice and evaluation of the framework in different business domain. We argue that there are advantages from combining and using techniques from different methodologies in this way for business domain modeling. The framework is overviewed and justified as multi-methodology using Mingers Multi-Methodology ideas.

Keywords: SSM, UML, domain-driven design, soft domain-driven design, naked objects, soft language, information retrieval, multimethodology

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Authors: Xiaocong Liu, Huazhen Wang, Ting He, Xiaozheng Li, Weihan Zhang, Jian Chen

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The utilization of electronic medical record (EMR) data to establish the disease diagnosis model has become an important research content of biomedical informatics. Deep learning can automatically extract features from the massive data, which brings about breakthroughs in the study of EMR data. The challenge is that deep learning lacks semantic knowledge, which leads to impracticability in medical science. This research proposes a method of incorporating lexical-semantic knowledge from abundant entities into a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework for pediatric disease diagnosis. Firstly, medical terms are vectorized into Lexical Semantic Vectors (LSV), which are concatenated with the embedded word vectors of word2vec to enrich the feature representation. Secondly, the semantic distribution of medical terms serves as Semantic Decision Guide (SDG) for the optimization of deep learning models. The study evaluate the performance of LSV-SDG-CNN model on four kinds of Chinese EMR datasets. Additionally, CNN, LSV-CNN, and SDG-CNN are designed as baseline models for comparison. The experimental results show that LSV-SDG-CNN model outperforms baseline models on four kinds of Chinese EMR datasets. The best configuration of the model yielded an F1 score of 86.20%. The results clearly demonstrate that CNN has been effectively guided and optimized by lexical-semantic knowledge, and LSV-SDG-CNN model improves the disease classification accuracy with a clear margin.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, electronic medical record, feature representation, lexical semantics, semantic decision

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Authors: Agoston Restas

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Introduction: In case of managing disasters decision makers can face many times such a special situation where any pre-sign of the drastically change is missing therefore the improvised decision making can be required. The complexity, ambiguity, uncertainty or the volatility of the situation can require many times the improvisation as decision making. It can be taken at any level of the management (strategic, operational and tactical) but at tactical level the main reason of the improvisation is surely time pressure. It is certainly the biggest problem during the management. Methods: The author used different tools and methods to achieve his goals; one of them was the study of the relevant literature, the other one was his own experience as a firefighting manager. Other results come from two surveys that are referred to; one of them was an essay analysis, the second one was a word association test, specially created for the research. Results and discussion: This article proves that, in certain situations, the multi-criteria, evaluating decision-making processes simply cannot be used or only in a limited manner. However, it can be seen that managers, directors or commanders are many times in situations that simply cannot be ignored when making decisions which should be made in a short time. The functional background of decisions made in a short time, their mechanism, which is different from the conventional, was studied lately and this special decision procedure was given the name recognition-primed decision. In the article, author illustrates the limits of the possibilities of analytical decision-making, presents the general operating mechanism of recognition-primed decision-making, elaborates on its special model relevant to managers at tactical level, as well as explore and systemize the factors that facilitate (catalyze) the processes with an example with fire managers.

Keywords: decision making, disaster managers, recognition primed decision, model for making decisions in emergencies

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Authors: Tayyab Ahmad, Gerard Healey

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Sustainability in built environment sector is subject to many development constraints. Building projects are developed under different requirements of deliverables which makes each project unique. For an owner organization, i.e., a higher-education institution, involved in a significant building stock, it is important to prioritize some of the sustainability initiatives over the others in order to align the sustainable building development with organizational goals. The point-based green building rating tools i.e. Green Star, LEED, BREEAM are becoming increasingly popular and are well-acknowledged worldwide for verifying a sustainable development. It is imperative to synthesize a multi-criteria decision-making tool that can capitalize on the point-based methodology of rating systems while customizing the sustainable development of building projects according to the individual requirements and constraints of the client organization. A multi-criteria decision-making tool for the University of Melbourne is developed that builds on the action-learning and experience of implementing Green Buildings at the University of Melbourne. The tool evaluates the different sustainable building initiatives based on the framework of Green Star rating tool of Green Building Council of Australia. For each different sustainability initiative the decision-making tool makes an assessment based on at least five performance criteria including the ease with which a sustainability initiative can be achieved and the potential of a sustainability initiative to enhance project objectives, reduce life-cycle costs, enhance University’s reputation, and increase the confidence in quality construction. The use of a weighted aggregation mathematical model in the proposed tool can have a considerable role in the decision-making process of a Green Building project by indexing the Green Building initiatives in terms of organizational priorities. The index value of each initiative will be based on its alignment with some of the key performance criteria. The usefulness of the decision-making tool is validated by conducting structured interviews with some of the key stakeholders involved in the development of sustainable building projects at the University of Melbourne. The proposed tool is realized to help a client organization in deciding that within limited resources which sustainability initiatives and practices are more important to be pursued than others.

Keywords: higher education institution, multi-criteria decision-making tool, organizational values, prioritizing sustainability initiatives, weighted aggregation model

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Authors: Jeffrey M. Byford

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The conceptualized theory of decision making on historical events often does not conform to uniform beliefs among students. When presented the opportunity, many students have differing opinions and rationales associated with historical events and outcomes. The intent of this paper was to provide students with the economic, social and political dilemmas associated with the autonomy of East Berlin. Students ranked seven possible actions from the most to least acceptable. In addition, students were required to provide both positive and negative factors for each decision and relative ranking. Results from this activity suggested that while most students chose a financial action towards West Berlin, some students had trouble justifying their actions.

Keywords: content-centered learning, cold war, Berlin, decision-making

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Authors: Rhoann Kerh, Chen-Fu Chien, Kuo-Yi Lin

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In the era of rapidly increasing notebook market, consumer electronics manufacturers are facing a highly dynamic and competitive environment. In particular, the product appearance is the first part for user to distinguish the product from the product of other brands. Notebook product should differ in its appearance to engage users and contribute to the user experience (UX). The UX evaluates various product concepts to find the design for user needs; in addition, help the designer to further understand the product appearance preference of different market segment. However, few studies have been done for exploring the relationship between consumer background and the reaction of product appearance. This study aims to propose a data mining framework to capture the user’s information and the important relation between product appearance factors. The proposed framework consists of problem definition and structuring, data preparation, rules generation, and results evaluation and interpretation. An empirical study has been done in Taiwan that recruited 168 subjects from different background to experience the appearance performance of 11 different portable computers. The results assist the designers to develop product strategies based on the characteristics of consumers and the product concept that related to the UX, which help to launch the products to the right customers and increase the market shares. The results have shown the practical feasibility of the proposed framework.

Keywords: consumers decision making, product design, rough set theory, user experience

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Authors: Sadiya S. Silvee

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Generally, the decision of the higher court is binding on its subordinate courts. As provided in Article 111 of the Constitution, 'the law declared by the Appellate Division (AD) shall be binding on the High Court Division (HCD) and the law declared by either division of the Supreme Court shall be binding on all courts subordinate to it.' This means the judicial discipline requires the HCD to follow the decision of the AD and that it is necessary for the lower tiers of courts to accept the decision of the higher tiers as a binding precedent. Analyzing the application of Article 111 of the Constitution in the criminal justice system as a sentencing guideline, the paper, by examining whether there is any consistency in decision between one HC Bench and another HC Bench, explores whether HCD can per incuriam its previous decision. In doing so, the Death Reference (DR) Cases are contemplated. Furthermore, the paper shall examine whether the Court of Session follows the decision of the HCD while using their discretion to make the choice between death and imprisonment for life under section 302 of PC. The paper argues due to the absence of any specific direction for sentencing and inconsistency in jurisprudence among the HCD; the subordinate courts are in a dilemma.

Keywords: death reference, sentencing factor, sentencing guideline, criminal justice system and constitution

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Authors: Kunyanuth Kularbphettong, Cholticha Tongsiri

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This paper aims to create the model for student in choosing an emphasized track of student majoring in computer science at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The objective of this research is to develop the suggested system using data mining technique to analyze knowledge and conduct decision rules. Such relationships can be used to demonstrate the reasonableness of student choosing a track as well as to support his/her decision and the system is verified by experts in the field. The sampling is from student of computer science based on the system and the questionnaire to see the satisfaction. The system result is found to be satisfactory by both experts and student as well.

Keywords: data mining technique, the decision support system, knowledge and decision rules, education

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Authors: F.Sadoughi, A. Sarsarshahi, L, Eerfannia, S.M.A. Khatami

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Hospital information systems with lots of ability would lead to health care quality improvement. Evaluation of this system has done according different method and criteria. The main goal of present study is to prioritize the most important factors which are influence these systems evaluation. At the first step, according relevant literature, three main factor and 29 subfactors extracted. Then, study framework was designed. Based on analytical hierarchical process (AHP), 28 paired comparisons with Saaty range, in a questionnaire format obtained. Questionnaires were filled by 10 experts in health information management and medical informatics field. Human factors with weight of 0.55 were ranked as the most important. Organization (0.25) and technology (0.14) were in next place. It seems MADM methods such as AHP have enough potential to use in health research and provide positive opportunities for health domain decision makers.

Keywords: Analytical hierarchy process, Multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM), Hospital information system, Evaluation factors

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Authors: Young-Su Ryu, Won-Gi Jeon, Byoung-Chul Song, Jae-Hong Park, Ki-Won Kwon

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In this paper, an open framework based smart energy storage system (ESS) profile for photovoltaic (PV)-ESS and uninterruptible power supply (UPS)-ESS is proposed and designed. An open framework based smart ESS is designed and developed for unifying the different interfaces among manufacturers. The smart ESS operates under the profile which provides the specifications of peripheral devices such as different interfaces and to the open framework. The profile requires well systemicity and expandability for addible peripheral devices. Especially, the smart ESS should provide the expansion with existing systems such as UPS and the linkage with new renewable energy technology such as PV. This paper proposes and designs an open framework based smart ESS profile for PV-ESS and UPS-ESS. The designed profile provides the existing smart ESS and also the expandability of additional peripheral devices on smart ESS such as PV and UPS.

Keywords: energy storage system (ESS), open framework, profile, photovoltaic (PV), uninterruptible power supply (UPS)

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Authors: Latif Yanar, Muammer Kaçan

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Decision support systems are getting more important in many fields of science and technology and used effectively especially when the problems to be solved are complicated with many criteria. In this kind of problems one of the main challenges for the decision makers are that sometimes they cannot produce a countable data for evaluating the criteria but the knowledge and sense of experts. In recent years, fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic based decision models gaining more place in literature. In this study, a decision support model to determine a country to build naval base is proposed and the application of the model is performed, considering Turkish Navy by the evaluations of Turkish Navy officers and academicians of international relations departments of various Universities located in Istanbul. The results achieved from the evaluations made by the experts in our model are calculated by a decision support tool named DESTEC 1.0, which is developed by the authors using C Sharp programming language. The tool gives advices to the decision maker using Analytic Hierarchy Process, Analytic Network Process, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Analytic Network Process all at once. The calculated results for five foreign countries are shown in the conclusion.

Keywords: decision support system, analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, analytic network process, fuzzy analytic network process, naval base, country selection, international relations

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Authors: Byung Cheol Kim

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This study explores a method for the signal-noise separation challenge in project control, focusing on the limitations of traditional deterministic approaches that use single-point performance metrics to predict project outcomes. We detail how traditional methods often overlook future uncertainties, resulting in tracking biases when reliance is placed solely on immediate data without adjustments for predictive accuracy. Our investigation led to the development of the Predictive Tracking Project Control (PTPC) framework, which incorporates network simulation and Bayesian control models to adapt more effectively to project dynamics. The PTPC introduces controlled disturbances to better identify and separate tracking biases from useful predictive signals. We will demonstrate the efficacy of the PTPC with examples, highlighting its potential to enhance real-time project monitoring and decision-making, marking a significant shift towards more accurate project management practices.

Keywords: predictive tracking, project control, signal-noise separation, Bayesian inference

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Authors: Anisa Luli, Alessandra Santona

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Wanting a child and experiencing the impossibility to conceive is a painful condition that often is linked to infertility and often leads infertile individuals to experience psychological, relational and social problems. In this situation, infertile couples have to review their choices and take into consideration new ones. Few studies have focused on the decision-making style used by infertile individuals to solve their problem and on the factors that influences it. The aim of this paper is to define the style of decision-making used by infertile persons to give a solution to the “problem” and the predictive role of the attachment, of the representations of the relationship with parents in childhood and of the dyadic adjustment. The total sample is composed by 251 participants, divided in two groups: the experimental group composed by 114 participants, 62 males and 52 females, age between 25 and 59 years, and the control group composed by 137 participants, 65 males and 72 females, age between 22 and 49 years. The battery of instruments comprises: General Decision Making Style (GDMS), Experiences in Close Relationships Questionnaire Revised (ECR-R), Dyadic Adjustment Scale (DAS), Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI) and Symptom Checklist-90-R (SCL-90-R). The results from the analysis of the samples showed a prevalence of the rational decision-making style for both males and females, experimental and control group. There have been founded significant statistical relationships between the attachment scales, the representations of the parenting style, the dyadic adjustment and the decision-making styles. These results contribute to enrich the literature on the subject of decision-making in infertile people and show the relationship between the attachment and decision-making styles, confirming the few results in literature.

Keywords: attachment, decision-making style, infertility, dyadic adjustment

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Authors: Arif Sikander, Imran Saeed

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The behavioral pattern and performance of airline pilots are influenced by the level of stress, their ethical decision-making ability and above all their leadership style as part of the Crew Management process. Cultural differences of pilots, especially while working in ex-country airlines, could influence the stress perception. Culture also influences ethical decision making. Leadership style is also a variable dimension, and pilots need to adapt to the cultural settings while flying with the local pilots as part of their team. Studies have found that age, education, gender, and management experience are statistically significant factors in ethical maturity. However, in the decades to come, more studies are required to validate the results over and over again; thereby, providing support for the validity of the Moral Development Theory. Leadership style plays a vital role in ethical decision making. This study is grounded in the Moral Development theory and seeks to analyze the styles of leadership of airline pilots related to ethical decision making and also the influence of the culture on their stress perception. The sample for the study included commercial pilots from a National Airline. It is expected that these results should provide useful input to the literature in the context of developing appropriate Talent Management strategies. The authors intend to extend this study (carried out in one country) to major national carriers (many countries) to be able to develop a ultimate framework on Talent Management which should serve as a benchmark for any international airline as most of them (e.g., Emirates, Etihad, Cathay Pacific, China Southern, etc.) are dependent on the supply of this scarce resource from outside countries.

Keywords: ethics, leadership, pilot, stress

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Authors: Bashaiar Alsanaa

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The process of decision making requires environment surveillance and public opinion monitoring, both of which can be attained through effective use of social media. This study aims to investigate the extent to which new media influence the decision making process by the Kuwaiti government. The research explores how unprecedented access to information as well as dynamic user-interaction made possible by new technologies play a significant role in all aspects of decision making whether on the end of the public or decision makers themselves. The research analyzes two case studies where public opinion was forceful on social media in order to explore how such media create interactive and liberal environments for individuals to participate in the process of taking action with regards to political, economic and social issues. The findings of this descriptive study indicate the overwhelming extent to which social media are being used in Kuwait to create new social reform by the government based on citizen interaction with current topics.

Keywords: communication, descriptive, new media technologies, social media.

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Authors: H. Moalla, A. Frikha

Abstract:

Multi-criteria decision aid methods consider decision problems where numerous alternatives are evaluated on several criteria. These methods are used to deal with perfect information. However, in practice, it is obvious that this information requirement is too much strict. In fact, the imperfect data provided by more or less reliable decision makers usually affect decision results since any decision is closely linked to the quality and availability of information. In this paper, a PROMETHEE-BELIEF approach is proposed to help multi-criteria decisions based on incomplete information. This approach solves problems with incomplete decision matrix and unknown weights within PROMETHEE method. On the base of belief function theory, our approach first determines the distributions of belief masses based on PROMETHEE’s net flows and then calculates weights. Subsequently, it aggregates the distribution masses associated to each criterion using Murphy’s modified combination rule in order to infer a global belief structure. The final action ranking is obtained via pignistic probability transformation. A case study of real-world application concerning the location of a waste treatment center from healthcare activities with infectious risk in the center of Tunisia is studied to illustrate the detailed process of the BELIEF-PROMETHEE approach.

Keywords: belief function theory, incomplete information, multiple criteria analysis, PROMETHEE method

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