Search results for: exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA)
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 6262

Search results for: exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA)

4222 Proposal of Commutation Protocol in Hybrid Sensors and Vehicular Networks for Intelligent Transport Systems

Authors: Taha Bensiradj, Samira Moussaoui

Abstract:

Hybrid Sensors and Vehicular Networks (HSVN), represent a hybrid network, which uses several generations of Ad-Hoc networks. It is used especially in Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). The HSVN allows making collaboration between the Wireless Sensors Network (WSN) deployed on the border of the road and the Vehicular Network (VANET). This collaboration is defined by messages exchanged between the two networks for the purpose to inform the drivers about the state of the road, provide road safety information and more information about traffic on the road. Moreover, this collaboration created by HSVN, also allows the use of a network and the advantage of improving another network. For example, the dissemination of information between the sensors quickly decreases its energy, and therefore, we can use vehicles that do not have energy constraint to disseminate the information between sensors. On the other hand, to solve the disconnection problem in VANET, the sensors can be used as gateways that allow sending the messages received by one vehicle to another. However, because of the short communication range of the sensor and its low capacity of storage and processing of data, it is difficult to ensure the exchange of road messages between it and the vehicle, which can be moving at high speed at the time of exchange. This represents the time where the vehicle is in communication range with the sensor. This work is the proposition of a communication protocol between the sensors and the vehicle used in HSVN. The latter has as the purpose to ensure the exchange of road messages in the available time of exchange.

Keywords: HSVN, ITS, VANET, WSN

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4221 Energy Deposited by Secondary Electrons Generated by Swift Proton Beams through Polymethylmethacrylate

Authors: Maurizio Dapor, Isabel Abril, Pablo de Vera, Rafael Garcia-Molina

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The ionization yield of ion tracks in polymers and bio-molecular systems reaches a maximum, known as the Bragg peak, close to the end of the ion trajectories. Along the path of the ions through the materials, many electrons are generated, which produce a cascade of further ionizations and, consequently, a shower of secondary electrons. Among these, very low energy secondary electrons can produce damage in the biomolecules by dissociative electron attachment. This work deals with the calculation of the energy distribution of electrons produced by protons in a sample of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA), a material that is used as a phantom for living tissues in hadron therapy. PMMA is also of relevance for microelectronics in CMOS technologies and as a photoresist mask in electron beam lithography. We present a Monte Carlo code that, starting from a realistic description of the energy distribution of the electrons ejected by protons moving through PMMA, simulates the entire cascade of generated secondary electrons. By following in detail the motion of all these electrons, we find the radial distribution of the energy that they deposit in PMMA for several initial proton energies characteristic of the Bragg peak.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, secondary electrons, energetic ions, ion-beam cancer therapy, ionization cross section, polymethylmethacrylate, proton beams, secondary electrons, radial energy distribution

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4220 Population Diversity of Dalmatian Pyrethrum Based on Pyrethrin Content and Composition

Authors: Filip Varga, Nina Jeran, Martina Biosic, Zlatko Satovic, Martina Grdisa

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Dalmatian pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium /Trevir./ Sch. Bip.), a species endemic to the eastern Adriatic coastline, is the source of natural insecticide pyrethrin. Pyrethrin is a mixture of six compounds (pyrethrin I and II, cinerin I and II, jasmolin I and II) that exhibits high insecticidal activity with no detrimental effects to the environment. A recently optimized matrix-solid phase dispersion method (MSPD), using florisil as the sorbent, acetone-ethyl acetate (1:1, v/v) as the elution solvent, and sodium sulfate anhydrous as the drying agent was utilized to extract the pyrethrins from 10 wild populations (20 individuals per population) distributed along the Croatian coast. All six components in the extracts were qualitatively and quantitatively determined by high-performance liquid chromatography with a diode array detector (HPLC-DAD). Pearson’s correlation index was calculated between pyrethrin compounds, and differences between the populations using the analysis of variance were tested. Additionally, the correlation of each pyrethrin component with spatio-ecological variables (bioclimate, soil properties, elevation, solar radiation, and distance from the coastline) was calculated. Total pyrethrin content ranged from 0.10% to 1.35% of dry flower weight, averaging 0.58% across all individuals. Analysis of variance revealed significant differences between populations based on all six pyrethrin compounds and total pyrethrin content. On average, the lowest total pyrethrin content was found in the population from Pelješac peninsula (0.22% of dry flower weight) in which total pyrethrin content lower than 0.18% was detected in 55% of the individuals. The highest average total pyrethrin content was observed in the population from island Zlarin (0.87% of dry flower weight), in which total pyrethrin content higher than 1.00% was recorded in only 30% of the individuals. Pyrethrin I/pyrethrin II ratio as a measure of extract quality ranged from 0.21 (population from the island Čiovo) to 5.88 (population from island Mali Lošinj) with an average of 1.77 across all individuals. By far, the lowest quality of extracts was found in the population from Mt. Biokovo (pyrethrin I/II ratio lower than 0.72 in 40% of individuals) due to the high pyrethrin II content typical for this population. Pearson’s correlation index revealed a highly significant positive correlation between pyrethrin I content and total pyrethrin content and a strong negative correlation between pyrethrin I and pyrethrin II. The results of this research clearly indicate high intra- and interpopulation diversity of Dalmatian pyrethrum with regards to pyrethrin content and composition. The information obtained has potential use in plant genetic resources conservation and biodiversity monitoring. Possibly the largest potential lies in designing breeding programs aimed at increasing pyrethrin content in commercial breeding lines and reintroduction in agriculture in Croatia. Acknowledgment: This work has been fully supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project ‘Genetic background of Dalmatian pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium /Trevir/ Sch. Bip.) insecticidal potential’ - (PyrDiv) (IP-06-2016-9034).

Keywords: Dalmatian pyrethrum, HPLC, MSPD, pyrethrin

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4219 Increased Nitrogen Removal in Cold Deammonification Biofilm Reactor (9-15°C) by Smooth Temperature Decreasing

Authors: Ivar Zekker, Ergo Rikmann, Anni Mandel, Markus Raudkivi, Kristel Kroon, Liis Loorits, Andrus Seiman, Hannu Fritze, Priit Vabamäe, Toomas Tenno, Taavo Tenno

Abstract:

The anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) and nitritation-anammox (deammonification) processes are widely used for N-rich wastewater treatment nowadays. A deammonification moving bed biofilm reactor (MBBR) with a high maximum total nitrogen removal rate (TNRR) of 1.5 g N m-2 d-1 was started up and similarly high TNRR was sustained at low temperature of 15°C. During biofilm cultivation, temperature in MBBR was lowered by 0.5° C week-1 sustaining the high TNRR. To study the short-term effect of temperature on the TNRR, a series of batch-scale experiments performed showed sufficient TNRRs even at 9-15° C (4.3-5.4 mg N L-1 h-1, respectively). After biomass was adapted to lower temperature (15°C), the TNRR increase at lower temperature (15°C) was relatively higher (15-20%) than with biomass adapted to higher temperatures (17-18°C). Anammox qPCR showed increase of Candidatus Brocadia quantities from 5×103 to 1×107 anammox gene copies g-1 TSS despite temperature lowered to 15°C. Modeling confirmed causes of stable and unstable periods in the reactor and in batch test high Arrhenius constant of 29.7 kJ mol-1 of the process as high as at 100 mg NO2--N L-1 were determined. 

Keywords: deammonification, reject water, intermittent aeration, nitrite inhibition

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4218 S/Pace: Discontinuing the Otherness of the Other in Travel

Authors: Okikiola Olusanu

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Power dynamics, one of the lasting effects of the legacies of coloniality, left an indelible scar on our identity and space. This structure ensures a system that deliberately slows down the pace of the colonizer, either within her space or while traveling the world of the colonizer. The politics of oppression through the intersection of race, gender, class, and sex empowers the ideology of sameness and difference. This ideology regulates and sustains the borderlines of the colonizers’ space. Sociologists, anti-colonialists, and feminist theorists have argued that the restrictions that the colonized experience while traveling to the space of the colonizers can be interpreted as an inter-body war that reinforces gender, class, and race inequalities. To foster belonging and accessibility, this study examines the effect of colonial legacy restrictions on traveling. This paper aims to deconstruct the coloniality of knowledge, space, and body for a transnational and decolonial identity transcending borders. it argue that borders are intentionally constructed to keep the other at a significant distance, like identity. We deduce that travel restriction is antibody because the pace is slow, and access is limited. For the analysis of this study, this study examines how the perception of the body of the colonizer influence her travail when traveling to and through the space of the ex-colonizer and the measures necessary for the decolonization of knowledge, space and body. Our interest is not in moving physical borders from space, it is rather in decolonizing the mind that create systematic, social, and political borders.

Keywords: space, body, travel, identity

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4217 Experiences of Timing Analysis of Parallel Embedded Software

Authors: Muhammad Waqar Aziz, Syed Abdul Baqi Shah

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The execution time analysis is fundamental to the successful design and execution of real-time embedded software. In such analysis, the Worst-Case Execution Time (WCET) of a program is a key measure, on the basis of which system tasks are scheduled. The WCET analysis of embedded software is also needed for system understanding and to guarantee its behavior. WCET analysis can be performed statically (without executing the program) or dynamically (through measurement). Traditionally, research on the WCET analysis assumes sequential code running on single-core platforms. However, as computation is steadily moving towards using a combination of parallel programs and multi-core hardware, new challenges in WCET analysis need to be addressed. In this article, we report our experiences of performing the WCET analysis of Parallel Embedded Software (PES) running on multi-core platform. The primary purpose was to investigate how WCET estimates of PES can be computed statically, and how they can be derived dynamically. Our experiences, as reported in this article, include the challenges we faced, possible suggestions to these challenges and the workarounds that were developed. This article also provides observations on the benefits and drawbacks of deriving the WCET estimates using the said methods and provides useful recommendations for further research in this area.

Keywords: embedded software, worst-case execution-time analysis, static flow analysis, measurement-based analysis, parallel computing

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4216 Spatial and Temporal Evaluations of Disinfection By-Products Formation in Coastal City Distribution Systems of Turkey

Authors: Vedat Uyak

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Seasonal variations of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs) concentrations were investigated within three distribution systems of a coastal city of Istanbul, Turkey. Moreover, total trihalomethanes and other organics concentration were also analyzed. The investigation was based on an intensive 16 month (2009-2010) sampling program, undertaken during the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. Four THM (chloroform, dichlorobromomethane, chlorodibromomethane, bromoform), and nine HAA (the most commonly occurring one being dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) and trichloroacetic acid (TCAA); other compounds are monochloroacetic acid (MCAA), monobromoacetic acid (MBAA), dibromoacetic acid (DBAA), tribromoacetic acid (TBAA), bromochloroacetic acid (BCAA), bromodichloroacetic acid (BDCAA) and chlorodibromoacetic acid (CDBAA)) species and other water quality and operational parameters were monitored at points along the distribution system between the treatment plant and the system’s extremity. The effects of coastal water sources, seasonal variation and spatial variation were examined. The results showed that THMs and HAAs concentrations vary significantly between treated waters and water at the distribution networks. When water temperature exceeds 26°C in summer, the THMs and HAAs levels are 0.8 – 1.1, and 0.4 – 0.9 times higher than treated water, respectively. While when water temperature is below 12°C in the winter, the measured THMs and HAAs concentrations at the system’s extremity were very rarely higher than 100 μg/L, and 60 μg/L, respectively. The highest THM concentrations occurred in the Buyukcekmece distribution system, with an average total HAA concentration of 92 μg/L. Moreover, the lowest THM levels were observed in the Omerli distribution network, with a mean concentration of 7 μg/L. For HAA levels, the maximum concentrations again were observed in the Buyukcekmece distribution system, with an average total HAA concentration of 57 μg/l. High spatial and seasonal variation of disinfection by-products in the drinking water of Istanbul was attributed of illegal wastewater discharges to water supplies of Istanbul city.

Keywords: disinfection byproducts, drinking water, trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, seasonal variation

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4215 Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices of Small Scale Farmers on Organic Agriculture in a Rural Community in Ifugao, Philippines

Authors: Marah Joy A. Nanglegan

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A survey was conducted to describe knowledge, attitude, practices, information needs, and information seeking behavior of small-scale farmers on Organic Agriculture Production (OAP) in a rural community in Ifugao, Philippines. Respondents’ age ranged from 23-67 years old. Most of them are male, married, and have reached high school level. The major source of income is farming with an average monthly income of less than Php 5,000 for a household size of seven. More than fifty percent of the respondents are members of a farmer’s organization. Farm size is less than one hectare. Majority of them own their farms and have been farming for more than twenty years. Very few attended training on Organic Agriculture Production (OAP). Most of them are not aware of any OAP program in their community. Hence, their farming practices are mostly conventional. The overall level of knowledge on OAP among all respondents was below the average. On attitude, most of the respondents agreed that organic farming would decrease production costs by reducing input purchases. They believe it benefits both the consumer and the producer. In fact, they are aware of the many benefits of organic farming, especially on health. Likewise, many of them agreed on the benefits of organic farming to soil fertility, to the environment, and to increase the income of farmers. Many of them, however, see organic farming as troublesome and difficult in terms of time and effort, obtaining organic inputs, limited production, and marketing aspects. They also have heavy reliance on pesticides and herbicides to control pests and diseases. On practices, majority of the respondents stated that they practiced crop rotation, manual weeding, and the use of animal manure. Most of them desired to do organic farming but needed information such as production techniques, costs, and marketing opportunities. Their most preferred communication channel is through extension agents and contact farmers. Their most preferred communication method is through trainings and seminars as well as through farm demonstrations. Results of this study will serve as a basis for developing appropriate communication strategies to improve knowledge, attitude, and practices of respondents on organic agriculture as well as enhance the promotion of organic agriculture production in the community.

Keywords: Ifugao, knowledge attitude practices, organic agriculture, Philippines

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4214 Association of Daily Physical Activity with Diabetes Control in Patients with Type II Diabetes

Authors: Chia-Hsun Chang

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Background: Combination of drug treatment, dietary management, and regular exercise can effectively control type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Performing daily physical activities other than structured exercise is much easier and whether daily physical activities including work, walking, housework, gardening, leisure exercise, or transportation have a similar effect on diabetes control is not well studied.Aims and Objectives: This study aims to determine whether daily physical activity undertaken by patients with T2DM is associated with their diabetes control. Design: A correlation study with prospective design. Methods: Purposive sampling of 206 patients with T2DM was recruited from a medical center in Central Taiwan. The International Physical Activity Questionnaire was used to assess daily levels of physical activities, and the Diabetes Compliance Questionnaire was used to assess medication and dietary compliance. Data of diabetes control (hemoglobin A1c, HbA1c)were followed up every three months for one year after recruitment. Results: In this study, the average age of the participants was 62.5 years (±10.4 years), and the average duration of diabetes since diagnosis was 13.2 years (±7.8), 112 of the participants were women (54.4%) and 94 of the participants were men (45.6%). The mean HbA1c level was 7.8% (±1.4), and 78.2% of the participants presented with unsatisfactory diabetes control. Because the participants were distributed across a wide age range, and their physical health, activity levels, and comorbidities might have varied with age, the participants were divided into two groups: 121 participants who were younger than 65 years (58.7%) and 85 participants who were older than 65 years (41.3%). Both younger (< 65 years) and older (> 65 years) patients with diabetes engaged in more moderate and low levels of physical activity (89.3% and 87%, respectively). Results showed that the levels of daily physical activity were not significantly associated with diabetes control after adjustment for medication and dietary compliance in both groups. Conclusion: Performing daily physical activity is not significantly correlated with diabetes control. Daily physical activity cannot completely replace exercise. Relevance to Clinical Practice: Health personnel must encourage patients to engage in exercise that is planned, structured, and repetitive for improving diabetes control.

Keywords: daily physical activity, diabetes control, international physical activity questionnaire (IPAQ), type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM)

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4213 Optimization of Energy Harvesting Systems for RFID Applications

Authors: P. Chambe, B. Canova, A. Balabanian, M. Pele, N. Coeur

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To avoid battery assisted tags with limited lifetime batteries, it is proposed here to replace them by energy harvesting systems, able to feed from local environment. This would allow total independence to RFID systems, very interesting for applications where tag removal from its location is not possible. Example is here described for luggage safety in airports, and is easily extendable to similar situation in terms of operation constraints. The idea is to fix RFID tag with energy harvesting system not only to identify luggage but also to supply an embedded microcontroller with a sensor delivering luggage weight making it impossible to add or to remove anything from the luggage during transit phases. The aim is to optimize the harvested energy for such RFID applications, and to study in which limits these applications are theoretically possible. Proposed energy harvester is based on two energy sources: piezoelectricity and electromagnetic waves, so that when the luggage is moving on ground transportation to airline counters, the piezo module supplies the tag and its microcontroller, while the RF module operates during luggage transit thanks to readers located along the way. Tag location on the luggage is analyzed to get best vibrations, as well as harvester better choice for optimizing the energy supply depending on applications and the amount of energy harvested during a period of time. Effects of system parameters (RFID UHF frequencies, limit distance between the tag and the antenna necessary to harvest energy, produced voltage and voltage threshold) are discussed and working conditions for such system are delimited.

Keywords: RFID tag, energy harvesting, piezoelectric, EM waves

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4212 Characterizing the Diffused Double Layer Properties of Clay Minerals

Authors: N. Saranya

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The difference in characteristic behavior of clay minerals for different electrolyte solution is dictated by the corresponding variation occurring at its diffused double layer thickness (DDL). The diffused double layer of clay mineral has two distinct regions; the inner region is termed as ‘Stern layer’ where ions are strongly attached to the clay surface. In the outer region, the ions are not strongly bonded with the clay surface, and this region is termed as ‘diffuse layer’. Within the diffuse layer, there is a plane that forms a boundary between the moving ions and the ions attached to the clay surface, which is termed as slipping or shear plane, and the potential of this plane is defined as zeta potential (ζ). Therefore, the variation in diffused double layer properties of clay mineral for different electrolyte solutions can be modeled if the corresponding variation in surface charge, surface potential, and zeta potential are computed. In view of this, the present study has attempted to characterize the diffused double layer properties of three different clay minerals interacting with different pore fluids by measuring the corresponding variation in surface charge, surface potential, and zeta potential. Further, the obtained variation in the diffused double layer property is compared with the Gouy-Chapman model, which is the widely accepted theoretical model to characterize the diffused double layer properties of clay minerals.

Keywords: DDL, surface charge, surface potential, zeta potential

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4211 Spatiotemporal Modeling of Under-Five Mortality and Associated Risk Factors in Ethiopia

Authors: Melkamu A. Zeru, Aweke A. Mitiku, Endashaw Amuka

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Background: Under-five mortality is the likelihood that a baby will pass away before turning exactly 5 years old, represented as a percentage per 1,000 live births. Exploring the spatial distribution and identifying the temporal pattern is important to reducing under-five child mortality globally, including in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to identify the risk factors of under-five mortality and the spatiotemporal variation in Ethiopian administrative zones. Method: This study used the 2000-2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data, which were collected using a two-stage sampling method. A total of 43,029 (10,873 in 2000, 9,861 in 2005, 11,654 in 2011, and 10,641 in 2016) weighted sample under-five child mortality was used. The space-time dynamic model was employed to account for spatial and time effects in 65 administrative zones in Ethiopia. Results: From the result of a general nesting spatial-temporal dynamic model, there was a significant space-time interaction effect [γ = -0.1444, 95 % CI (-0.6680, -0.1355)] for under-five mortality. The increase in the percentages of mothers illiteracy [𝛽 = 0.4501, 95% CI (0.2442, 0.6559)], not vaccinated[𝛽= 0.7681, 95% CI (0.5683, 0.9678)], unimproved water[𝛽= 0.5801, CI (0.3793, 0.7808)] were increased death rates for under five children while increased percentage of contraceptive use [𝛽= -0.6609, 95% CI (-0.8636, -0.4582)] and ANC visit > 4 times [𝛽= -0.1585, 95% CI(-0.1812, -0.1357)] were contributed to the decreased under-five mortality rate at the zone in Ethiopia. Conclusions: Even though the mortality rate for children under five has decreased over time, still there is still higher in different zones of Ethiopia. There exists spatial and temporal variation in under-five mortality among zones. Therefore, it is very important to consider spatial neighbourhoods and temporal context when aiming to avoid under-five mortality.

Keywords: under-five children mortality, space-time dynamic, spatiotemporal, Ethiopia

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4210 To Identify the Importance of Telemedicine in Diabetes and Its Impact on Hba1c

Authors: Sania Bashir

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A promising approach to healthcare delivery, telemedicine makes use of communication technology to reach out to remote regions of the world, allowing for beneficial interactions between diabetic patients and healthcare professionals as well as the provision of affordable and easily accessible medical care. The emergence of contemporary care models, fueled by the pervasiveness of mobile devices, provides better information, offers low cost with the best possible outcomes, and is known as digital health. It involves the integration of collected data using software and apps, as well as low-cost, high-quality outcomes. The goal of this study is to assess how well telemedicine works for diabetic patients and how it impacts their HbA1c levels. A questionnaire-based survey of 300 diabetics included 150 patients in each of the groups receiving usual care and via telemedicine. A descriptive and observational study that lasted from September 2021 to May 2022 was conducted. HbA1c has been gathered for both categories every three months. A remote monitoring tool has been used to assess the efficacy of telemedicine and continuing therapy instead of the customary three monthly meetings like in-person consultations. The patients were (42.3) 18.3 years old on average. 128 men were outnumbered by 172 women (57.3% of the total). 200 patients (66.6%) have type 2 diabetes, compared to over 100 (33.3%) candidates for type 1. Despite the average baseline BMI being within normal ranges at 23.4 kg/m², the mean baseline HbA1c (9.45 1.20) indicates that glycemic treatment is not well-controlled at the time of registration. While patients who use telemedicine experienced a mean percentage change of 10.5, those who visit the clinic experienced a mean percentage change of 3.9. Changes in HbA1c are dependent on several factors, including improvements in BMI (61%) after 9 months of research and compliance with healthy lifestyle recommendations for diet and activity. More compliance was achieved by the telemedicine group. It is an undeniable reality that patient-physician communication is crucial for enhancing health outcomes and avoiding long-term issues. Telemedicine has shown its value in the management of diabetes and holds promise as a novel technique for improved clinical-patient communication in the twenty-first century.

Keywords: diabetes, digital health, mobile app, telemedicine

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4209 Food Poisoning (Salmonellosis) as a Public Health Problem Through Consuming the Meat and Eggs of the Carrier Birds

Authors: M.Younus, M. Athar Khan, Asif Adrees

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The present research endeavour was made to investigate the Public Health impact of Salmonellosis through consuming the meat and eggs of the carrier’s birds and to see the prevalence of Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium from poultry feed, poultry meat, and poultry eggs and their role in the chain of transmission of salmonellae to human beings and causing food poisoning. The ultimate objective was to generate data to improve the quality of poultry products and human health awareness. Salmonellosis is one of the most wide spread food borne zoonoses in all the continents of the world. The etiological agents Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium not only produce the disease but during the convalescent phase (after the recovery of disease) remain carriers for indefinite period of time. The carrier state was not only the source of spread of disease with in the poultry but also caused typhoid fever in humans. The chain of transmission started from poultry feed to poultry meat and ultimately to humans as dead end hosts. In this experiment a total number of 200 samples of human stool and blood were collected randomly (100 samples of human stool and 100 samples of human blood) of 100 patients suspected from food poisoning patients from different hospitals of Lahore area for the identification of Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium through PCR method in order to see the public health impact of Salmonellosis through consuming the meat and eggs of the carrier birds. On the average 14 and 10 stool samples were found positive against Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium from each of the 25 patients from each hospital respectively in case of suspected food poisoning patients. Similarly on an average 5% and 6% blood samples were found positive from 25 patients of each hospital respectively. There was a significant difference (P< 0.05) in the sero positivity of stool and blood samples of suspected food poisoning patients as far as Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium was concerned. However there was no significant difference (P<0.05) between the hospitals.

Keywords: salmonella, zoonosis, food, transmission, eggs

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4208 Understanding Surface Failures in Thick Asphalt Pavement: A 3-D Finite Element Model Analysis

Authors: Hana Gebremariam Liliso

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This study investigates the factors contributing to the deterioration of thick asphalt pavements, such as rutting and cracking. We focus on the combined influence of traffic loads and pavement structure. This study uses a three-dimensional finite element model with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion to analyze the stress levels near the pavement's surface under realistic conditions. Our model considers various factors, including tire-pavement contact stresses, asphalt properties, moving loads, and dynamic analysis. This research suggests that cracking tends to occur between dual tires. Some key discoveries include the risk of cracking increases as temperatures rise; surface cracking at high temperatures is associated with distortional deformation; using a uniform contact stress distribution underestimates the risk of failure compared to realistic three-dimensional tire contact stress, particularly at high temperatures; the risk of failure is higher near the surface when there is a negative temperature gradient in the asphalt layer; and debonding beneath the surface layer leads to increased shear stress and premature failure around the interface.

Keywords: asphalt pavement, surface failure, 3d finite element model, multiaxial stress states, Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion

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4207 Time and Kinematics of Moving Bodies

Authors: Muhammad Omer Farooq Saeed

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The purpose of the proposal is to find out what time actually is! And to understand the natural phenomenon of the behavior of time and light corresponding to the motion of the bodies at relatively high speeds. The utmost concern of the paper is to deal with the possible demerits in the equations of relativity, thereby providing some valuable extensions in those equations and concepts. The idea used develops the most basic conception of the relative motion of the body with respect to space and a real understanding of time and the variation of energy of the body in different frames of reference. The results show the development of a completely new understanding of time, relative motion and energy, along with some extensions in the equations of special relativity most importantly the time dilation and the mass-energy relationship that will explain all frames of a body, all in one go. The proposal also raises serious questions on the validity of the “Principle of Equivalence” on which the General Relativity is based, most importantly a serious case of the bending light that eventually goes against its own governing concepts of space-time being proposed in the theory. The results also predict the existence of a completely new field that explains the fact just how and why bodies acquire energy in space-time. This field explains the production of gravitational waves based on time. All in all, this proposal challenges the formulas and conceptions of Special and General Relativity, respectively.

Keywords: time, relative motion, energy, speed, frame of reference, photon, curvature, space-time, time –differentials

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4206 Premature Departure of Active Women from the Working World: One Year Retrospective Study in the Tunisian Center

Authors: Lamia Bouzgarrou, Amira Omrane, Malika Azzouzi, Asma Kheder, Amira Saadallah, Ilhem Boussarsar, Kamel Rejeb

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Introduction: Increasing the women’s labor force participation is a political issue in countries with developed economies and those with low growth prospects. However, in the labor market, women continue to face several obstacles, either for the integration or for the maintenance at work. This study aims to assess the prevalence of premature withdrawal from working life -due to invalidity or medical justified early retirement- among active women in the Tunisian center and to identify its determinants. Material and methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study, over one year, focusing on the agreement for invalidity or early retirement for premature usury of the body- delivered by the medical commission of the National Health Insurance Fund (CNAM) in the central Tunisian district. We exhaustively selected women's files. Data related to Socio-demographic characteristics, professional and medical ones, were collected from the CNAM's administrative and medical files. Results: During the period of one year, 222 women have had an agreement for premature departure of their professional activity. Indeed, 149 women (67.11%) benefit of from invalidity agreement and 20,27% of them from favorable decision for early retirement. The average age was 50 ± 6 years with extremes of 23 and 62 years, and 18.9% of women were under 45 years. Married women accounted for 69.4% and 59.9% of them had at least one dependent child in charge. The average professional seniority in the sector was 23 ± 8 years. The textile-clothing sector was the most affected, with 70.7% of premature departure. Medical reasons for withdrawal from working life were mainly related to neuro-degenerative diseases in 46.8% of cases, rheumatic ones in 35.6% of cases and cardiovascular diseases in 22.1% of them. Psychiatric and endocrine disorders motivated respectively 17.1% and 13.5% of these departures. The evaluation of the sequels induced by these pathologies concluded to an average permanent partial disability equal to 61.4 ± 17.3%. The analytical study concluded that the agreement of disability or early retirement was correlated with the insured ‘age (p = 10-3), the professional seniority (p = 0.003) and the permanent partial incapacity (PPI) rate assessed by the expert physician (p = 0.04). No other social or professional factors were correlated with this decision. Conclusion: Despite many advances in labour law and Tunisian legal text on employability, women still exposed to several social and professional inequalities (payment inequality, precarious work ...). Indeed, women are often pushed to accept working in adverse conditions, thus they are more vulnerable to develop premature wear on the body and being forced to premature departures from the world of work. These premature withdrawals from active life are not only harmful to the concerned women themselves, but also associated with considerable costs for the insurance organism and the society. In order to ensure maintenance at work for women, a political commitment is imperative in the implementation of global prevention strategies and the improvement of working conditions, particularly in our socio-cultural context.

Keywords: Active Women , Early Retirement , Invalidity , Maintenance at Work

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4205 Identification and Analysis of Supports Required for Teachers Moving to Remote Teaching and Learning during Disasters and Pandemics

Authors: Susan Catapano, Meredith Jones, Carol McNulty

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Analysis of one state’s collaborative effort to support teachers, in both public and private schools, as they moved from face-to-face teaching to remote teaching during the Covid pandemic to identify lessons learned and materials put into place to support teachers and families. Surveys were created, distributed, and analyzed throughout the three months of remote teaching, documents and lesson plans were developed, and training materials were created. All data collected and materials developed were analyzed to identify supports teachers used and needed for successful remote teaching. Researchers found most teachers easily moved to online teaching; however, many families did not have access to technology, so teachers needed to develop non-technology-based access and support for remote teaching. Teachers also reported the need to prepare to teach remotely as part of their teaching training, so they were prepared in the future. Finally, data indicated teachers were able to establish stronger relationships with families than usual as a result of remote teaching. The lessons learned and support developed are part of the state’s ongoing policy for online teaching in the event of disasters and pandemics in the future.

Keywords: remote learning, teacher education, pandemic, families

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4204 Milk Yield and Fingerprinting of Beta-Casein Precursor (CSN2) Gene in Some Saudi Camel Breeds

Authors: Amr A. El Hanafy, Yasser M. Saad, Saleh A. Alkarim, Hussein A. Almehdar, Elrashdy M. Redwan

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Camels are substantial providers of transport, milk, sport, meat, shelter, fuel, security and capital in many countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. Identification of animal breeds has progressed rapidly during the last decade. Advanced molecular techniques are playing a significant role in breeding or strain protection laws. On the other hand, fingerprinting of some molecular markers related to some productive traits in farm animals represents most important studies to our knowledge, which aim to conserve these local genetic resources, and to the genetic improvement of such local breeds by selective programs depending on gene markers. Milk records were taken two days in each week from female camels of Majahem, Safara, Wathaha, and Hamara breeds, respectively from different private farms in northern Jeddah, Riyadh and Alwagh governorates and average weekly yields were calculated. DNA sequencing for CSN2 gene was used for evaluating the genetic variations and calculating the genetic distance values among four Saudi camel populations which are Hamra(R), Safra(Y), Wadha(W) and Majaheim(M). In addition, this marker was analyzed for reconstructing the Neighbor joining tree among evaluating camel breeds. In respect to milk yield during winter season, result indicated that average weekly milk yield of Safara camel breed (30.05 Kg/week) is significantly (p < 0.05) lower than the other 3 breeds which ranged from 39.68 for Hamara to 42.42 Kg/week for Majahem, while there are not significant differences between these three breeds. The Neighbor Joining analysis that re-constructed based on DNA variations showed that samples are clustered into two unique clades. The first clade includes Y (from Y4 to Y18) and M (from M1, to M9). On the other hand, the second cluster is including all R (from R1 to R6) and W (from W1 to W6). The genetic distance values were equal 0.0068 (between the groups M&Y and R&W) and equal 0 (within each group).

Keywords: milk yield, beta-casein precursor (CSN2), Saudi camel, molecular markers

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4203 Prioritization in a Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) System Based on Fuzzy Logic at Iran Khodro (IKCO)

Authors: Izadi Banafsheh, Sedaghat Reza

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Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) of machinery are a key recent issue concerning the automotive industry. It has always been a debated question what order or priority should be adopted for the MRO of machinery. This study attempts to examine several criteria including process sensitivity, average time between machine failures, average duration of repair, availability of parts, availability of maintenance personnel and workload through a literature review and experts survey so as to determine the condition of the machine. According to the mentioned criteria, the machinery were ranked in four modes below: A) Need for inspection, B) Need for minor repair, C) Need for part replacement, and D) Need for major repair. The Fuzzy AHP was employed to determine the weighting of criteria. At the end, the obtained weights were ranked through the AHP for each criterion, three groups were specified: shaving machines, assembly and painting in four modes. The statistical population comprises the elite in the Iranian automotive industry at IKCO covering operation managers, CEOs and maintenance professionals who are highly specialized in MRO and perfectly knowledgeable in how the machinery function. The information required for this study were collected from both desk research and field review, which eventually led to construction of a questionnaire handed out to the sample respondents in order to collect information on the subject matter. The results of the AHP for weighting the criteria revealed that the availability of maintenance personnel was the top priority at coefficient of 0.206, while the process sensitivity took the last priority at coefficient of 0.066. Furthermore, the results of TOPSIS for prioritizing the IKCO machinery suggested that at the mode where there is need for inspection, the assembly machines took the top priority while paining machines took the third priority. As for the mode where there is need for minor repairs, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third priority belonged to the shaving machines. As for the mode where there is need for parts replacement, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third belonged to the paining machinery. Finally, as for the mode where there is need for major repair, the assembly machines took the top priority while the third belonged to the paining machinery.

Keywords: maintenance, repair, overhaul, MRO, prioritization of machinery, fuzzy logic, AHP, TOPSIS

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4202 Preparation of Biodegradable Methacrylic Nanoparticles by Semicontinuous Heterophase Polymerization for Drugs Loading: The Case of Acetylsalicylic Acid

Authors: J. Roberto Lopez, Hened Saade, Graciela Morales, Javier Enriquez, Raul G. Lopez

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Implementation of systems based on nanostructures for drug delivery applications have taken relevance in recent studies focused on biomedical applications. Although there are several nanostructures as drugs carriers, the use of polymeric nanoparticles (PNP) has been widely studied for this purpose, however, the main issue for these nanostructures is the size control below 50 nm with a narrow distribution size, due to they must go through different physiological barriers and avoid to be filtered by kidneys (< 10 nm) or the spleen (> 100 nm). Thus, considering these and other factors, it can be mentioned that drug-loaded nanostructures with sizes varying between 10 and 50 nm are preferred in the development and study of PNP/drugs systems. In this sense, the Semicontinuous Heterophase Polymerization (SHP) offers the possibility to obtain PNP in the desired size range. Considering the above explained, methacrylic copolymer nanoparticles were obtained under SHP. The reactions were carried out in a jacketed glass reactor with the required quantities of water, ammonium persulfate as initiator, sodium dodecyl sulfate/sodium dioctyl sulfosuccinate as surfactants, methyl methacrylate and methacrylic acid as monomers with molar ratio of 2/1, respectively. The monomer solution was dosed dropwise during reaction at 70 °C with a mechanical stirring of 650 rpm. Nanoparticles of poly(methyl methacrylate-co-methacrylic acid) were loaded with acetylsalicylic acid (ASA, aspirin) by a chemical adsorption technique. The purified latex was put in contact with a solution of ASA in dichloromethane (DCM) at 0.1, 0.2, 0.4 or 0.6 wt-%, at 35°C during 12 hours. According to the boiling point of DCM, as well as DCM and water densities, the loading process is completed when the whole DCM is evaporated. The hydrodynamic diameter was measured after polymerization by quasi-elastic light scattering and transmission electron microscopy, before and after loading procedures with ASA. The quantitative and qualitative analyses of PNP loaded with ASA were measured by infrared spectroscopy, differential scattering calorimetry and thermogravimetric analysis. Also, the molar mass distributions of polymers were determined in a gel permeation chromatograph apparatus. The load capacity and efficiency were determined by gravimetric analysis. The hydrodynamic diameter results for methacrylic PNP without ASA showed a narrow distribution with an average particle size around 10 nm and a composition methyl methacrylate/methacrylic acid molar ratio equal to 2/1, same composition of Eudragit S100, which is a commercial compound widely used as excipient. Moreover, the latex was stabilized in a relative high solids content (around 11 %), a monomer conversion almost 95 % and a number molecular weight around 400 Kg/mol. The average particle size in the PNP/aspirin systems fluctuated between 18 and 24 nm depending on the initial percentage of aspirin in the loading process, being the drug content as high as 24 % with an efficiency loading of 36 %. These average sizes results have not been reported in the literature, thus, the methacrylic nanoparticles here reported are capable to be loaded with a considerable amount of ASA and be used as a drug carrier.

Keywords: aspirin, biocompatibility, biodegradable, Eudragit S100, methacrylic nanoparticles

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4201 Changing Roles for Academic Leaders: A Comparative Study between Sweden and South Africa

Authors: Åse Nygren, Linda du Plessis

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Academic leadership has traditionally been associated with collegiality, consensus and a limitation in time. These factors alone have resulted in a complex and fuzzy leadership culture in academia, combined with a strong sense of autonomy among researchers and teachers. A more competitive educational market have resulted in increased audit as well as recent autonomy reforms with higher demands on effectiveness, cost awareness and accountability in higher education. In recent years, with the introduction of new public management, academic leadership has been in a state of transition moving from collegiality towards manergerialism. University reforms and changes, which have gradually taken place in most western countries in the past decade, including Sweden and South-Africa, have contributed to the notion that collegial academic leadership is questioned. Academic leadership is traditionally associated with vice-chancellors, deans and heads of departments. This paper will focus on “outer circle” of academic leaders, consisting of, for example, program directors, directors of disciplines, course coordinators and research leaders. We investigate the meaning of collegiality for these groups of academic leaders in Sweden and South-Africa. The paper rests on a comparative study made on universities both in Sweden and in South-Africa. The aim of the comparison is to achieve a wider scope and to investigate perspectives from both inside and outside of Bologna.

Keywords: academic leadership, new public management, collegiality, consensus

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4200 Enlightening Malaysia's Energy Policies and Strategies for Modernization and Sustainable Development

Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Nor Salwati Othman

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Malaysia has achieved remarkable economic growth since 1957, moving toward modernization from a predominantly agriculture base to manufacturing and—now—modern services. The development policies (i.e., New Economic Policy [1970–1990], the National Development Policy [1990–2000], and Vision 2020) have been recognized as the most important drivers of this transformation. The transformation of the economic structure has moved along with rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth, urbanization growth, and greater demand for energy from mainly fossil fuel resources, which in turn, increase CO2 emissions. Malaysia faced a great challenge to bring down the CO2 emissions without compromising economic development. Solid policies and a strategy to reduce dependencies on fossil fuel resources and reduce CO2 emissions are needed in order to achieve sustainable development. This study provides an overview of the Malaysian economic, energy, and environmental situation, and explores the existing policies and strategies related to energy and the environment. The significance is to grasp a clear picture on what types of policies and strategies Malaysia has in hand. In the future, this examination should be extended by drawing a comparison with other developed countries and highlighting several options for sustainable development.

Keywords: energy policies, energy efficiency, renewable energy, green building, Malaysia, sustainable development

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4199 Dynamic Risk Model for Offshore Decommissioning Using Bayesian Belief Network

Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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4198 Prediction Model of Body Mass Index of Young Adult Students of Public Health Faculty of University of Indonesia

Authors: Yuwaratu Syafira, Wahyu K. Y. Putra, Kusharisupeni Djokosujono

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Background/Objective: Body Mass Index (BMI) serves various purposes, including measuring the prevalence of obesity in a population, and also in formulating a patient’s diet at a hospital, and can be calculated with the equation = body weight (kg)/body height (m)². However, the BMI of an individual with difficulties in carrying their weight or standing up straight can not necessarily be measured. The aim of this study was to form a prediction model for the BMI of young adult students of Public Health Faculty of University of Indonesia. Subject/Method: This study used a cross sectional design, with a total sample of 132 respondents, consisted of 58 males and 74 females aged 21- 30. The dependent variable of this study was BMI, and the independent variables consisted of sex and anthropometric measurements, which included ulna length, arm length, tibia length, knee height, mid-upper arm circumference, and calf circumference. Anthropometric information was measured and recorded in a single sitting. Simple and multiple linear regression analysis were used to create the prediction equation for BMI. Results: The male respondents had an average BMI of 24.63 kg/m² and the female respondents had an average of 22.52 kg/m². A total of 17 variables were analysed for its correlation with BMI. Bivariate analysis showed the variable with the strongest correlation with BMI was Mid-Upper Arm Circumference/√Ulna Length (MUAC/√UL) (r = 0.926 for males and r = 0.886 for females). Furthermore, MUAC alone also has a very strong correlation with BMI (r = 0,913 for males and r = 0,877 for females). Prediction models formed from either MUAC/√UL or MUAC alone both produce highly accurate predictions of BMI. However, measuring MUAC/√UL is considered inconvenient, which may cause difficulties when applied on the field. Conclusion: The prediction model considered most ideal to estimate BMI is: Male BMI (kg/m²) = 1.109(MUAC (cm)) – 9.202 and Female BMI (kg/m²) = 0.236 + 0.825(MUAC (cm)), based on its high accuracy levels and the convenience of measuring MUAC on the field.

Keywords: body mass index, mid-upper arm circumference, prediction model, ulna length

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4197 Urban Impervious and its Impact on Storm Water Drainage Systems

Authors: Ratul Das, Udit Narayan Das

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Surface imperviousness in urban area brings significant changes in storm water drainage systems and some recent studies reveals that the impervious surfaces that passes the storm water runoff directly to drainage systems through storm water collection systems, called directly connected impervious area (DCIA) is an effective parameter rather than total impervious areas (TIA) for computation of surface runoff. In the present study, extension of DCIA and TIA were computed for a small sub-urban area of Agartala, the capital of state Tripura. Total impervious surfaces covering the study area were identified on the existing storm water drainage map from landuse map of the study area in association with field assessments. Also, DCIA assessed through field survey were compared to DCIA computed by empirical relationships provided by other investigators. For the assessment of DCIA in the study area two methods were adopted. First, partitioning the study area into four drainage sub-zones based on average basin slope and laying of existing storm water drainage systems. In the second method, the entire study area was divided into small grids. Each grid or parcel comprised of 20m× 20m area. Total impervious surfaces were delineated from landuse map in association with on-site assessments for efficient determination of DCIA within each sub-area and grid. There was a wide variation in percent connectivity of TIA across each sub-drainage zone and grid. In the present study, total impervious area comprises 36.23% of the study area, in which 21.85% of the total study area is connected to storm water collection systems. Total pervious area (TPA) and others comprise 53.20% and 10.56% of the total area, respectively. TIA recorded by field assessment (36.23%) was considerably higher than that calculated from the available land use map (22%). From the analysis of recoded data, it is observed that the average percentage of connectivity (% DCIA with respect to TIA) is 60.31 %. The analysis also reveals that the observed DCIA lies below the line of optimal impervious surface connectivity for a sub-urban area provided by other investigators and which indicate the probable reason of water logging conditions in many parts of the study area during monsoon period.

Keywords: Drainage, imperviousness, runoff, storm water.

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4196 Moving on or Deciding to Let Go: The Effects of Emotional and Decisional Forgiveness on Intentional Forgetting

Authors: Saima Noreen, Malcolm D. MacLeod

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Different types of forgiveness (emotional and decisional) have been shown to have differential effects on incidental forgetting of information related to a prior transgression. The present study explored the extent to which emotional and decisional forgiveness also influenced intentional forgetting; that is, the extent to which forgetting occurs following an explicit instruction to forget. Using the List-Method Directed Forgetting (LMDF) paradigm, 236 participants were presented with a hypothetical transgression and then assigned to an emotional forgiveness, a decisional forgiveness, or a no-forgiveness manipulation. Participants were then presented with two-word lists each comprising transgression-relevant and transgression-irrelevant words. Following the presentation of the first list, participants were told to either remember or forget the previously learned list of words. Participants in the emotional forgiveness condition were found to remember fewer relevant and more irrelevant transgression-related words, while the opposite was true for both decisional forgiveness and no-forgiveness conditions. Furthermore, when directed to forget words in List 1, participants in the decisional and no-forgiveness conditions were less able to forget relevant transgression-related words in comparison to participants in the emotional forgiveness condition. This study suggests that emotional forgiveness plays a pivotal role in the intentional forgetting of transgression-related information. The potential implications of these findings for coping with unpleasant incidents will be considered.

Keywords: decisional forgiveness, directed forgetting, emotional forgiveness, executive control, forgiveness

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4195 Vision-Based Collision Avoidance for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles by Recurrent Neural Networks

Authors: Yao-Hong Tsai

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Due to the sensor technology, video surveillance has become the main way for security control in every big city in the world. Surveillance is usually used by governments for intelligence gathering, the prevention of crime, the protection of a process, person, group or object, or the investigation of crime. Many surveillance systems based on computer vision technology have been developed in recent years. Moving target tracking is the most common task for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) to find and track objects of interest in mobile aerial surveillance for civilian applications. The paper is focused on vision-based collision avoidance for UAVs by recurrent neural networks. First, images from cameras on UAV were fused based on deep convolutional neural network. Then, a recurrent neural network was constructed to obtain high-level image features for object tracking and extracting low-level image features for noise reducing. The system distributed the calculation of the whole system to local and cloud platform to efficiently perform object detection, tracking and collision avoidance based on multiple UAVs. The experiments on several challenging datasets showed that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.

Keywords: unmanned aerial vehicle, object tracking, deep learning, collision avoidance

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4194 Cycleloop Personal Rapid Transit: An Exploratory Study for Last Mile Connectivity in Urban Transport

Authors: Suresh Salla

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In this paper, author explores for most sustainable last mile transport mode addressing present problems of traffic congestion, jams, pollution and travel stress. Development of energy-efficient sustainable integrated transport system(s) is/are must to make our cities more livable. Emphasis on autonomous, connected, electric, sharing system for effective utilization of systems (vehicles and public infrastructure) is on the rise. Many surface mobility innovations like PBS, Ride hailing, ride sharing, etc. are, although workable but if we analyze holistically, add to the already congested roads, difficult to ride in hostile weather, causes pollution and poses commuter stress. Sustainability of transportation is evaluated with respect to public adoption, average speed, energy consumption, and pollution. Why public prefer certain mode over others? How commute time plays a role in mode selection or shift? What are the factors play-ing role in energy consumption and pollution? Based on the study, it is clear that public prefer a transport mode which is exhaustive (i.e., less need for interchange – network is widespread) and intensive (i.e., less waiting time - vehicles are available at frequent intervals) and convenient with latest technologies. Average speed is dependent on stops, number of intersections, signals, clear route availability, etc. It is clear from Physics that higher the kerb weight of a vehicle; higher is the operational energy consumption. Higher kerb weight also demands heavier infrastructure. Pollution is dependent on source of energy, efficiency of vehicle, average speed. Mode can be made exhaustive when the unit infrastructure cost is less and can be offered intensively when the vehicle cost is less. Reliable and seamless integrated mobility till last ¼ mile (Five Minute Walk-FMW) is a must to encourage sustainable public transportation. Study shows that average speed and reliability of dedicated modes (like Metro, PRT, BRT, etc.) is high compared to road vehicles. Electric vehicles and more so battery-less or 3rd rail vehicles reduce pollution. One potential mode can be Cycleloop PRT, where commuter rides e-cycle in a dedicated path – elevated, at grade or underground. e-Bike with kerb weight per rider at 15 kg being 1/50th of car or 1/10th of other PRT systems makes it sustainable mode. Cycleloop tube will be light, sleek and scalable and can be modular erected, either on modified street lamp-posts or can be hanged/suspended between the two stations. Embarking and dis-embarking points or offline stations can be at an interval which suits FMW to mass public transit. In terms of convenience, guided e-Bike can be made self-balancing thus encouraging driverless on-demand vehicles. e-Bike equipped with smart electronics and drive controls can intelligently respond to field sensors and autonomously move reacting to Central Controller. Smart switching allows travel from origin to destination without interchange of cycles. DC Powered Batteryless e-cycle with voluntary manual pedaling makes it sustainable and provides health benefits. Tandem e-bike, smart switching and Platoon operations algorithm options provide superior through-put of the Cycleloop. Thus Cycleloop PRT will be exhaustive, intensive, convenient, reliable, speedy, sustainable, safe, pollution-free and healthy alternative mode for last mile connectivity in cities.

Keywords: cycleloop PRT, five-minute walk, lean modular infrastructure, self-balanced intelligent e-cycle

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4193 Recurrent Neural Networks for Complex Survival Models

Authors: Pius Marthin, Nihal Ata Tutkun

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Survival analysis has become one of the paramount procedures in the modeling of time-to-event data. When we encounter complex survival problems, the traditional approach remains limited in accounting for the complex correlational structure between the covariates and the outcome due to the strong assumptions that limit the inference and prediction ability of the resulting models. Several studies exist on the deep learning approach to survival modeling; moreover, the application for the case of complex survival problems still needs to be improved. In addition, the existing models need to address the data structure's complexity fully and are subject to noise and redundant information. In this study, we design a deep learning technique (CmpXRnnSurv_AE) that obliterates the limitations imposed by traditional approaches and addresses the above issues to jointly predict the risk-specific probabilities and survival function for recurrent events with competing risks. We introduce the component termed Risks Information Weights (RIW) as an attention mechanism to compute the weighted cumulative incidence function (WCIF) and an external auto-encoder (ExternalAE) as a feature selector to extract complex characteristics among the set of covariates responsible for the cause-specific events. We train our model using synthetic and real data sets and employ the appropriate metrics for complex survival models for evaluation. As benchmarks, we selected both traditional and machine learning models and our model demonstrates better performance across all datasets.

Keywords: cumulative incidence function (CIF), risk information weight (RIW), autoencoders (AE), survival analysis, recurrent events with competing risks, recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention, multilayers perceptrons (MLPs)

Procedia PDF Downloads 88