Search results for: cognitive models

Authors: Raghabendra Yadav, Baochun Chen, Huihui Yuan, Zhibin Lian

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Concrete Filled Steel Tube (CFST) columns are widely used in Civil Engineering Structures due to their abundant properties. CFST-RC column is a built up column in which CFST members are connected with RC web. The CFST-RC column has excellent static and earthquake resistant properties, such as high strength, high ductility and large energy absorption capacity. CFST-RC columns have been adopted as piers in Ganhaizi Bridge in high seismic risk zone with a highest pier of 107m. The experimental investigation on scaled models of similar type of the CFST-RC pier are carried out. The experimental investigation on scaled models of similar type of the CFST-RC pier are carried out. Under cyclic loading, the hysteretic performance of CFST-RC columns, such as failure modes, ductility, load displacement hysteretic curves, energy absorption capacity, strength and stiffness degradation are studied in this paper.

Keywords: CFST, cyclic load, Ganhaizi bridge, seismic performance

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Authors: Yaowei Hu, Yongkai Wu, Lu Zhang, Xintao Wu

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Causal inference from observational data is receiving wide applications in many fields. However, unidentifiable situations, where causal effects cannot be uniquely computed from observational data, pose critical barriers to applying causal inference to complicated real applications. In this paper, we develop a bounding method for estimating the average causal effect (ACE) under unidentifiable situations due to hidden confounders. We propose to parameterize the unknown exogenous random variables and structural equations of a causal model using neural networks and implicit generative models. Then, with an adversarial learning framework, we search the parameter space to explicitly traverse causal models that agree with the given observational distribution and find those that minimize or maximize the ACE to obtain its lower and upper bounds. The proposed method does not make any assumption about the data generating process and the type of the variables. Experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets show the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: average causal effect, hidden confounding, bound estimation, generative adversarial learning

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Authors: Redouane Tlemsani, Redouane, Belkacem Kouninef, Abdelkader Benyettou

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In this paper, our system is a Markovien system which we can see it like a Dynamic Bayesian Networks. One of the major interests of these systems resides in the complete training of the models (topology and parameters) starting from training data. The Bayesian Networks are representing models of dubious knowledge on complex phenomena. They are a union between the theory of probability and the graph theory in order to give effective tools to represent a joined probability distribution on a set of random variables. The representation of knowledge bases on description, by graphs, relations of causality existing between the variables defining the field of study. The theory of Dynamic Bayesian Networks is a generalization of the Bayesians networks to the dynamic processes. Our objective amounts finding the better structure which represents the relationships (dependencies) between the variables of a dynamic bayesian network. In applications in pattern recognition, one will carry out the fixing of the structure which obliges us to admit some strong assumptions (for example independence between some variables).

Keywords: Arabic on line character recognition, dynamic Bayesian network, pattern recognition, networks

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Authors: Juan Carlos Rubio Romero, Francico Salguero Caparros, Virginia Herrera-Pérez

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No one is in the slightest doubt about the high levels of risk involved in work in the construction industry. They are even higher in structural construction work. The Critical Decision Method (CDM) is a semi-structured interview technique that uses cognitive tests to identify the different disturbances that workers have to deal with in their work activity. At present, the vision of safety focused on daily performance and things that go well for safety and health management is facing the new paradigm known as Resilience Engineering. The aim of this study has been to describe the variability in formwork labour on concrete structures in the construction industry and, from there, to find out the resilient attitude of workers to unexpected events that they have experienced during their working lives. For this purpose, a series of semi-structured interviews were carried out with construction employees with extensive experience in formwork labour in Spain by applying the Critical Decision Method. This work has been the first application of the Critical Decision Method in the field of construction and, more specifically, in the execution of structures. The results obtained show that situations categorised as unthought-of are identified to a greater extent than potentially unexpected situations. The identification during these interviews of both expected and unexpected events provides insight into the critical decisions made and actions taken to improve resilience in daily practice in this construction work. From this study, it is clear that it is essential to gain more knowledge about the nature of the human cognitive process in work situations within complex socio-technical systems such as construction sites. This could lead to a more effective design of workplaces in the search for improved human performance.

Keywords: resilience engineering, construction industry, unthought-of situations, critical decision method

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Authors: Farid Gaci, Zoubir Nemouchi

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A numerical study of laminar and turbulent fluid flows in 90° bend of square section was carried out. Three-dimensional meshes, based on hexahedral cells, were generated. The QUICK scheme was employed to discretize the convective term in the transport equations. The SIMPLE algorithm was adopted to treat the velocity-pressure coupling. The flow structure obtained showed interesting features such as recirculation zones and counter-rotating pairs of vortices. The performance of three different turbulence models was evaluated: the standard k- ω model, the SST k-ω model and the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM). Overall, it was found that, the multi-equation model performed better than the two equation models. In fact, the existence of four pairs of counter rotating cells, in the straight duct upstream of the bend, were predicted by the RSM closure but not by the standard eddy viscosity model nor the SST k-ω model. The analysis of the results led to a better understanding of the induced three dimensional secondary flows and the behavior of the local pressure coefficient and the friction coefficient.

Keywords: curved duct, counter-rotating cells, secondary flow, laminar, turbulent

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Authors: Sung-Min Kim, Joon-Hong Park, Hyuk Choi

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This study is focused on the comparative analysis and improvement to grasp the flow characteristic of the anti-splash device located under the P/V valve and new concept design models using the CFD. The P/V valve located upper deck to solve the pressure rising and vacuum condition of inner tank of the liquid cargo ships occurred oil outflow accident by transverse and longitudinal sloshing force. Anti-splash device is fitted to improve and prevent this problem in the shipbuilding industry, but the oil outflow accidents are still reported by ship owners. Thus, 4 types of new design model are presented by this study, and then comparative analysis is conducted with new models and existing model. Mostly the key criterion of this problem is flux in the outlet of the anti-splash device. Therefore, the flow and velocity are grasped by transient analysis, and then it decided optimum model and design parameters to develop model. Later, it is needed to develop an anti-splash device by flow test to get certification and verification using experiment equipments.

Keywords: anti-splash device, P/V valve, sloshing, CFD

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Authors: Iris Xiaohong Quan

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The global digital health market reached 175 billion U.S. dollars in 2019, and is expected to grow at about 25% CAGR to over 650 billion USD by 2025. Different terms such as digital health, e-health, mHealth, telehealth have been used in the field, which can sometimes cause confusion. The term digital health was originally introduced to refer specifically to the use of interactive media, tools, platforms, applications, and solutions that are connected to the Internet to address health concerns of providers as well as consumers. While mHealth emphasizes the use of mobile phones in healthcare, telehealth means using technology to remotely deliver clinical health services to patients. According to FDA, “the broad scope of digital health includes categories such as mobile health (mHealth), health information technology (IT), wearable devices, telehealth and telemedicine, and personalized medicine.” Some researchers believe that digital health is nothing else but the cultural transformation healthcare has been going through in the 21st century because of digital health technologies that provide data to both patients and medical professionals. As digital health is burgeoning, but research in the area is still inadequate, our paper aims to clear the definition confusion and provide an overall picture of digital health companies. We further investigate how business models are designed and differentiated in the emerging digital health sector. Both quantitative and qualitative methods are adopted in the research. For the quantitative analysis, our research data came from two databases Crunchbase and CBInsights, which are well-recognized information sources for researchers, entrepreneurs, managers, and investors. We searched a few keywords in the Crunchbase database based on companies’ self-description: digital health, e-health, and telehealth. A search of “digital health” returned 941 unique results, “e-health” returned 167 companies, while “telehealth” 427. We also searched the CBInsights database for similar information. After merging and removing duplicate ones and cleaning up the database, we came up with a list of 1464 companies as digital health companies. A qualitative method will be used to complement the quantitative analysis. We will do an in-depth case analysis of three successful unicorn digital health companies to understand how business models evolve and discuss the challenges faced in this sector. Our research returned some interesting findings. For instance, we found that 86% of the digital health startups were founded in the recent decade since 2010. 75% of the digital health companies have less than 50 employees, and almost 50% with less than 10 employees. This shows that digital health companies are relatively young and small in scale. On the business model analysis, while traditional healthcare businesses emphasize the so-called “3P”—patient, physicians, and payer, digital health companies extend to “5p” by adding patents, which is the result of technology requirements (such as the development of artificial intelligence models), and platform, which is an effective value creation approach to bring the stakeholders together. Our case analysis will detail the 5p framework and contribute to the extant knowledge on business models in the healthcare industry.

Keywords: digital health, business models, entrepreneurship opportunities, healthcare

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Authors: Liane Marcia Freitas Silva, Fernando Augusto Silva Marins, Maria Silene Alexandre Leite

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The adoption of a network structure, like in the supply chains, favors the increase of dependence between companies and, by consequence, their vulnerability. Environment disasters, sociopolitical and economical events, and the dynamics of supply chains elevate the uncertainty of their operation, favoring the occurrence of events that can generate break up in the operations and other undesired consequences. Thus, supply chains are exposed to various risks that can influence the profitability of companies involved, and there are several previous studies that have proposed risk classification models in order to categorize the risks and to manage them. The objective of this paper is to analyze and discuss thirty of these risk classification models by means a theoretical survey. The research method adopted for analyzing and discussion includes three phases: The identification of the types of risks proposed in each one of the thirty models, the grouping of them considering equivalent concepts associated to their definitions, and, the analysis of these risks groups, evaluating their similarities and differences. After these analyses, it was possible to conclude that, in fact, there is more than thirty risks types identified in the literature of Supply Chains, but some of them are identical despite of be used distinct terms to characterize them, because different criteria for risk classification are adopted by researchers. In short, it is observed that some types of risks are identified as risk source for supply chains, such as, demand risk, environmental risk and safety risk. On the other hand, other types of risks are identified by the consequences that they can generate for the supply chains, such as, the reputation risk, the asset depreciation risk and the competitive risk. These results are consequence of the disagreements between researchers on risk classification, mainly about what is risk event and about what is the consequence of risk occurrence. An additional study is in developing in order to clarify how the risks can be generated, and which are the characteristics of the components in a Supply Chain that leads to occurrence of risk.

Keywords: sisks classification, survey, supply chain management, theoretical discussion

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Authors: Keyvan Ramin

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The geometric nonlinearity of Off-Diagonal Bracing System (ODBS) could be a complementary system to covering and extending the nonlinearity of reinforced concrete material. Finite element modeling is performed for flexural frame, x-braced frame and the ODBS braced frame system at the initial phase. Then the different models are investigated along various analyses. According to the experimental results of flexural and x-braced frame, the verification is done. Analytical assessments are performed in according to three-dimensional finite element modeling. Non-linear static analysis is considered to obtain performance level and seismic behavior, and then the response modification factors calculated from each model’s pushover curve. In the next phase, the evaluation of cracks observed in the finite element models, especially for RC members of all three systems is performed. The finite element assessment is performed on engendered cracks in ODBS braced frame for various time steps. The nonlinear dynamic time history analysis accomplished in different stories models for three records of Elcentro, Naghan, and Tabas earthquake accelerograms. Dynamic analysis is performed after scaling accelerogram on each type of flexural frame, x-braced frame and ODBS braced frame one by one. The base-point on RC frame is considered to investigate proportional displacement under each record. Hysteresis curves are assessed along continuing this study. The equivalent viscous damping for ODBS system is estimated in according to references. Results in each section show the ODBS system has an acceptable seismic behavior and their conclusions have been converged when the ODBS system is utilized in reinforced concrete frame.

Keywords: FEM, seismic behaviour, pushover analysis, geometric nonlinearity, time history analysis, equivalent viscous damping, passive control, crack investigation, hysteresis curve

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Authors: Delphine Morales, Florian Lombart, Agathe Truchot, Pauline Maire, Pascale Vigneron, Antoine Galmiche, Catherine Lok, Muriel Vayssade

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Targeted therapy molecules are used as a first-line treatment for metastatic melanoma with B-Raf mutation. Nevertheless, these molecules can cause side effects to patients and are efficient on 50 to 60 % of them. Indeed, melanoma cell sensitivity to targeted therapy molecules is dependent on tumor microenvironment (cell-cell and cell-extracellular matrix interactions). To better unravel factors modulating cell sensitivity to B-Raf inhibitor, we have developed and compared several melanoma models: from metastatic melanoma cells cultured as monolayer (2D) to a co-culture in a 3D dermal equivalent. Cell response was studied in different melanoma cell lines such as SK-MEL-28 (mutant B-Raf (V600E), sensitive to Vemurafenib), SK-MEL-3 (mutant B-Raf (V600E), resistant to Vemurafenib) and a primary culture of dermal human fibroblasts (HDFn). Assays have initially been performed in a monolayer cell culture (2D), then a second time on a 3D dermal equivalent (dermal human fibroblasts embedded in a collagen gel). All cell lines were treated with Vemurafenib (a B-Raf inhibitor) for 48 hours at various concentrations. Cell sensitivity to treatment was assessed under various aspects: Cell proliferation (cell counting, EdU incorporation, MTS assay), MAPK signaling pathway analysis (Western-Blotting), Apoptosis (TUNEL), Cytokine release (IL-6, IL-1α, HGF, TGF-β, TNF-α) upon Vemurafenib treatment (ELISA) and histology for 3D models. In 2D configuration, the inhibitory effect of Vemurafenib on cell proliferation was confirmed on SK-MEL-28 cells (IC50=0.5 µM), and not on the SK-MEL-3 cell line. No apoptotic signal was detected in SK-MEL-28-treated cells, suggesting a cytostatic effect of the Vemurafenib rather than a cytotoxic one. The inhibition of SK-MEL-28 cell proliferation upon treatment was correlated with a strong expression decrease of phosphorylated proteins involved in the MAPK pathway (ERK, MEK, and AKT/PKB). Vemurafenib (from 5 µM to 10 µM) also slowed down HDFn proliferation, whatever cell culture configuration (monolayer or 3D dermal equivalent). SK-MEL-28 cells cultured in the dermal equivalent were still sensitive to high Vemurafenib concentrations. To better characterize all cell population impacts (melanoma cells, dermal fibroblasts) on Vemurafenib efficacy, cytokine release is being studied in 2D and 3D models. We have successfully developed and validated a relevant 3D model, mimicking cutaneous metastatic melanoma and tumor microenvironment. This 3D melanoma model will become more complex by adding a third cell population, keratinocytes, allowing us to characterize the epidermis influence on the melanoma cell sensitivity to Vemurafenib. In the long run, the establishment of more relevant 3D melanoma models with patients’ cells might be useful for personalized therapy development. The authors would like to thank the Picardie region and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) 2014/2020 for the funding of this work and Oise committee of "La ligue contre le cancer".

Keywords: 3D human skin model, melanoma, tissue engineering, vemurafenib efficiency

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Authors: Shatha Khuzaee

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The study develops multimodal stylistic approach to analyse a number of BBC online news articles reporting some key events from the so called ‘Arab Uprisings’. Critical stylistics (CS) and visual grammar (VG) provide insightful arguments to the ways ideology is projected through different verbal and visual modes, yet they are mode specific because they examine how each mode projects its meaning separately and do not attempt to clarify what happens intersemiotically when the two modes co-occur. Therefore, it is the task undertaken in this research to propose multimodal stylistic approach that addresses the issue of ideology construction when the two modes co-occur. Informed by functional grammar and social semiotics, the analysis attempts to integrate three linguistic models developed in critical stylistics, namely, transitivity choices, prioritizing and hypothesizing along with their visual equivalents adopted from visual grammar to investigate the way ideology is constructed, in multimodal text, when text/image participate and interrelate in the process of meaning making on the textual level of analysis. The analysis provides comprehensive theoretical and analytical elaborations on the different points of integration between CS linguistic models and VG equivalents which operate on the textual level of analysis to better account for ideology construction in news as non-literary multimodal texts. It is argued that the analysis well thought out a plan that would remark the first step towards the integration between the well-established linguistic models of critical stylistics and that of visual analysis to analyse multimodal texts on the textual level. Both approaches are compatible to produce multimodal stylistic approach because they intend to analyse text and image depending on whatever textual evidence is available. This supports the analysis maintain the rigor and replicability needed for a stylistic analysis like the one undertaken in this study.

Keywords: multimodality, stylistics, visual grammar, social semiotics, functional grammar

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Authors: Wichai Srisud, Shunnawat Pungbangkradee, Sukanya Chaemchoy

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This research study aims to analyze and assess school management guidelines designed to enhance the level of Student School Engagement of students at Bangkok Christian College, according to three following primary objectives: 1) to evaluate the level of Student School Engagement among Bangkok Christian College students, 2) to examine the Priority Needs Index of school management for promoting an optimum level of Student School Engagement among Bangkok Christian College students, and 3) to develop additional guidelines for school management to further enhance the level of Student School Engagement of Bangkok Christian College students. The research was conducted using Explanatory Design research methodology, with data obtained from a sample comprised of 291 students and 6 administrative personnel. The research findings indicated that: 1) The overall level of Student School Engagement was high. Emotional engagement averaged at the highest level, followed by Behavioral Engagement and Cognitive Engagement, respectively. 2) The Priority Needs Index of school management for promoting Student School Engagement of Bangkok Christian College students was examined, revealing that Evaluation averaged at the highest PNI level, followed by Planning and Implementation, respectively. 3) Guidelines for school management to enhance Student School Engagement of Bangkok Christian College students should consist of four approaches: 3.1) A Cognitive Engagement Enhancing Approach, which must include (1) fostering students’ problem-solving flexibility, and their ability to devise solutions for overcoming potential challenges, and (2) encouraging students to deal effectively with academic setbacks, rather than becoming overwhelmed by what they may perceive as failures, 3.2) An Emotional Engagement Enhancing Approach, cultivating students’ interests, aspirations and goals in learning to maximize emotional investment in their academic pursuits, and 3.3) A Behavioral Engagement Enhancing Approach, for elevating students’ focus and attentiveness during learning, and improving their ability to avoid distractions during study time.

Keywords: school engagement, guidelines for school management

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Authors: John E. Boberg, Steven J. Bourgeois

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The decline in student engagement and motivation through the middle years is well documented and clearly associated with a decline in mathematics achievement that persists through high school. To combat this trend and, very often, to meet high-stakes accountability standards, a growing number of parents, teachers, and schools have implemented various methods to incentivize learning. However, according to Self-Determination Theory, forms of incentivized learning such as public praise, tangible rewards, or threats of punishment tend to undermine intrinsic motivation and learning. By focusing on external forms of motivation that thwart autonomy in children, adults also potentially threaten relatedness measures such as trust and emotional engagement. Furthermore, these controlling motivational techniques tend to promote shallow forms of cognitive engagement at the expense of more effective deep processing strategies. Therefore, any short-term gains in apparent engagement or test scores are overshadowed by long-term diminished motivation, resulting in inauthentic approaches to learning and lower achievement. The current study focuses on the relationships between student trust, engagement, and motivation during these crucial years as students transition from elementary to middle school. In order to test the effects of controlled motivational techniques on achievement in mathematics, this quantitative study was conducted on a convenience sample of 22 elementary and middle schools from a single public charter school district in the south-central United States. The study employed multi-source data from students (N = 1,054), parents (N = 7,166), and teachers (N = 356), along with student achievement data and contextual campus variables. Cross-sectional questionnaires were used to measure the students’ self-regulated learning, emotional and cognitive engagement, and trust in teachers. Parents responded to a single item on incentivizing the academic performance of their child, and teachers responded to a series of questions about their acceptance of various incentive strategies. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to evaluate model fit and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the predictor variables on achievement. Although a student’s trust in teacher positively predicted both emotional and cognitive engagement, none of these three predictors accounted for any variance in achievement in mathematics. The parents’ use of incentives, on the other hand, predicted a student’s perception of his or her controlled motivation, and these two variables had significant negative effects on achievement. While controlled motivation had the greatest effects on achievement, parental incentives demonstrated both direct and indirect effects on achievement through the students’ self-reported controlled motivation. Comparing upper elementary student data with middle-school student data revealed that controlling forms of motivation may be taking their toll on student trust and engagement over time. While parental incentives positively predicted both cognitive and emotional engagement in the younger sub-group, such forms of controlling motivation negatively predicted both trust in teachers and emotional engagement in the middle-school sub-group. These findings support the claims, posited by Self-Determination Theory, about the dangers of incentivizing learning. Short-term gains belie the underlying damage to motivational processes that lead to decreased intrinsic motivation and achievement. Such practices also appear to thwart basic human needs such as relatedness.

Keywords: controlled motivation, student engagement, incentivized learning, mathematics achievement, self-determination theory, student trust

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Authors: Venkat S. Somayajula

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Ground surface temperature history prediction model plays a vital role in determining standards for international nuclear waste management. International standards for borehole based nuclear waste disposal require paleoclimate cycle predictions on scale of a million forward years for the place of waste disposal. This research focuses on developing a paleoclimate cycle prediction model using Bayesian long-short term memory (LSTM) neural architecture operated on accumulated borehole temperature history data. Bayesian models have been previously used for paleoclimate cycle prediction based on Monte-Carlo weight method, but due to limitations pertaining model coupling with certain other prediction networks, Bayesian models in past couldn’t accommodate prediction cycle’s over 1000 years. LSTM has provided frontier to couple developed models with other prediction networks with ease. Paleoclimate cycle developed using this process will be trained on existing borehole data and then will be coupled to surface temperature history prediction networks which give endpoints for backpropagation of LSTM network and optimize the cycle of prediction for larger prediction time scales. Trained LSTM will be tested on past data for validation and then propagated for forward prediction of temperatures at borehole locations. This research will be beneficial for study pertaining to nuclear waste management, anthropological cycle predictions and geophysical features

Keywords: Bayesian long-short term memory neural network, borehole temperature, ground surface temperature history, paleoclimate cycle

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Authors: Xiaoci Li, Yonghua Huang, Hui Lin

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Optimization of the concentration of components in mixed refrigerants leads to potential improvement of either thermodynamic cycle performance or safety performance of heat pumps and refrigerators. R32+R1234yf and R125+R290 are two promising binary mixed refrigerants for the application of heat pumps working in the cold areas. The p-ρ-T data of these mixtures are one of the fundamental and necessary properties for design and evaluation of the performance of the heat pumps. Although the property data of mixtures can be predicted by the mixing models based on the pure substances incorporated in programs such as the NIST database Refprop, direct property measurement will still be helpful to reveal the true state behaviors and verify the models. Densities of the mixtures of R32+R1234yf an d R125+R290 are measured by an Anton Paar U shape oscillating tube digital densimeter DMA-4500 in the range of temperatures from 0°C to 100 °C and pressures up to 10 MPa. The accuracy of the measurement reaches 0.00005 g/cm³. The experimental data are compared with the predictions by Refprop in the corresponding range of pressure and temperature.

Keywords: mixed refrigerant, density measurement, densimeter, thermodynamic property

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Authors: Jolanta Jonak

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Traditional classrooms are challenging for many students, but especially for students that learn differently due to cognitive makeup, learning preferences, or disability. These students often require different teaching approaches and learning opportunities to benefit from learning. Teachers frequently divert to using one teaching approach, the one that matches their own learning style. For instance, teachers that are auditory learners, likely default to providing auditory learning opportunities. However, if a student is a visual learner, he/she may not fully benefit from that teaching style. Based on research, students and their parents’ feedback, large numbers of students are not provided the type of education and types of supports they need in order to be successful in an academic environment. This eventually leads to not learning at an appropriate rate and ultimately leading to skill deficiencies and deficits. Providing varied learning approaches promote high academic and social-emotional growth of all students and it will prevent inaccurate Special Education referrals. Varied learning opportunities can be delivered for all students by providing Differentiated Instruction (DI). This type of instruction allows each student to learn in the most optimal way regardless of learning preferences and cognitive learning profiles. Using Differentiated Instruction will lead to a high level of student engagement and learning. In addition, experiencing success in the classroom, will contribute to increased social emotional wellbeing. Being cognizant of how teaching approaches impact student's learning, school staff can avoid inaccurate perceptions about the students’ learning abilities, unnecessary referrals for special education evaluations, and inaccurate decisions about the presence of a disability. This presentation will illustrate learning differences due to various factors, how to recognize them, and how to address them through Differentiated Instruction.

Keywords: special education, disability, differences, differentiated instruction, social emotional wellbeing

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Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung

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Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty

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Authors: Margarita Gáfaro, Karelys Guzmán, Paola Poveda

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This paper establishes the theoretical aspects that explain the barriers to accessing credit for small agricultural producers in developing countries and identifies successful policy experiences to mitigate them. We will test two hypotheses. The first one is that information asymmetries, high transaction costs and high-risk exposure limit the supply of credit to small agricultural producers in developing countries. The second hypothesis is that low levels of financial education and productivity and high uncertainty about the returns of agricultural activity limit the demand for credit. To test these hypotheses, a review of the theoretical and empirical literature on access to rural credit in developing countries will be carried out. The first part of this review focuses on theoretical models that incorporate information asymmetries in the credit market and analyzes the interaction between these asymmetries and the characteristics of the agricultural sector in developing countries. Some of the characteristics we will focus on are the absence of collateral, the underdevelopment of the judicial systems and insurance markets, and the high dependence on climatic factors of production technologies. The second part of this review focuses on the determinants of credit demand by small agricultural producers, including the profitability of productive projects, security conditions, risk aversion or loss, financial education, and cognitive biases, among others. There are policies that focus on resolving these supply and demand constraints and managing to improve credit access. Therefore, another objective of this paper is to present a review of effective policies that have promoted access to credit for smallholders in the world. For this, information available in policy documents will be collected. This information will be complemented by interviews with officials in charge of the design and execution of these policies in a subset of selected countries. The information collected will be analyzed in light of the conceptual framework proposed in the first two parts of this section. The barriers to access to credit that each policy attempts to resolve and the factors that could explain its effectiveness will be identified.

Keywords: agricultural economics, credit access, smallholder, developing countries

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Authors: Saeedullah J. Mandokhail, Shamsher Sadiq, Meer H. Khan

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This paper presents the comparison of excess pore water pressure ratio (ru) predicted by using accumulated stress based pore pressure model and plasticity model. One dimensional effective stress site response analyses were performed on a 30 m deep sand column (consists of a liquefiable layer in between non-liquefiable layers) using accumulated stress based pore pressure model in Deepsoil and PDMY2 (PressureDependentMultiYield02) model in Opensees. Three Input motions with different peak ground acceleration (PGA) levels of 0.357 g, 0.124 g, and 0.11 g were used in this study. The developed excess pore pressure ratio predicted by the above two models were compared and analyzed along the depth. The time history of the ru at mid of the liquefiable layer and non-liquefiable layer were also compared. The comparisons show that the two models predict mostly similar ru values. The predicted ru is also consistent with the PGA level of the input motions.

Keywords: effective stress, excess pore pressure ratio, pore pressure model, site response analysis

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Authors: Rosa Tsegaye Aga, Xuan Jiang, Pavel Vazquez Faci, Siqing Liu, Simon Rayner, Endalkachew Alemu, Markos Abebe

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of disease globally. In most cases, TB is treatable and curable, but only with the proper treatment. There is a time when drug-resistant TB occurs when bacteria become resistant to the drugs that are used to treat TB. Current strategies to identify drug-resistant TB bacteria are laboratory-based, and it takes a longer time to identify the drug-resistant bacteria and treat the patient accordingly. But machine learning (ML) and data science approaches can offer new approaches to the problem. In this study, we propose to develop an ML-based model to predict the antibiotic resistance phenotypes of TB isolates in minutes and give the right treatment to the patient immediately. The study has been using the whole genome sequence (WGS) of TB isolates as training data that have been extracted from the NCBI repository and contain different countries’ samples to build the ML models. The reason that different countries’ samples have been included is to generalize the large group of TB isolates from different regions in the world. This supports the model to train different behaviors of the TB bacteria and makes the model robust. The model training has been considering three pieces of information that have been extracted from the WGS data to train the model. These are all variants that have been found within the candidate genes (F1), predetermined resistance-associated variants (F2), and only resistance-associated gene information for the particular drug. Two major datasets have been constructed using these three information. F1 and F2 information have been considered as two independent datasets, and the third information is used as a class to label the two datasets. Five machine learning algorithms have been considered to train the model. These are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random forest (RF), Logistic regression (LR), Gradient Boosting, and Ada boost algorithms. The models have been trained on the datasets F1, F2, and F1F2 that is the F1 and the F2 dataset merged. Additionally, an ensemble approach has been used to train the model. The ensemble approach has been considered to run F1 and F2 datasets on gradient boosting algorithm and use the output as one dataset that is called F1F2 ensemble dataset and train a model using this dataset on the five algorithms. As the experiment shows, the ensemble approach model that has been trained on the Gradient Boosting algorithm outperformed the rest of the models. In conclusion, this study suggests the ensemble approach, that is, the RF + Gradient boosting model, to predict the antibiotic resistance phenotypes of TB isolates by outperforming the rest of the models.

Keywords: machine learning, MTB, WGS, drug resistant TB

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Authors: Zhifeng Kong

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Over-parameterized neural networks have attracted a great deal of attention in recent deep learning theory research, as they challenge the classic perspective of over-fitting when the model has excessive parameters and have gained empirical success in various settings. While a number of theoretical works have been presented to demystify properties of such models, the convergence properties of such models are still far from being thoroughly understood. In this work, we study the convergence properties of training two-hidden-layer partially over-parameterized fully connected networks with the Rectified Linear Unit activation via gradient descent. To our knowledge, this is the first theoretical work to understand convergence properties of deep over-parameterized networks without the equally-wide-hidden-layer assumption and other unrealistic assumptions. We provide a probabilistic lower bound of the widths of hidden layers and proved linear convergence rate of gradient descent. We also conducted experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets to validate our theory.

Keywords: over-parameterization, rectified linear units ReLU, convergence, gradient descent, neural networks

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Authors: Zeinab Yazdanfar, Dilan Robert, Daniel Lester, S. Setunge

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Scour has been identified as the most common threat to bridge stability worldwide. Traditionally, scour around bridge piers is calculated using the empirical approaches that have considerable limitations and are difficult to generalize. The multi-physic nature of scouring which involves turbulent flow, soil mechanics and solid-fluid interactions cannot be captured by simple empirical equations developed based on limited laboratory data. These limitations can be overcome by direct numerical modeling of coupled hydro-mechanical scour process that provides a robust prediction of bridge scour and valuable insights into the scour process. Several numerical models have been proposed in the literature for bridge scour estimation including Eulerian flow models and coupled Euler-Lagrange models incorporating an empirical sediment transport description. However, the contact forces between particles and the flow-particle interaction haven’t been taken into consideration. Incorporating collisional and frictional forces between soil particles as well as the effect of flow-driven forces on particles will facilitate accurate modeling of the complex nature of scour. In this study, a coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and Discrete Element Model (CFD-DEM) has been developed to simulate the scour process that directly models the hydro-mechanical interactions between the sediment particles and the flowing water. This approach obviates the need for an empirical description as the fundamental fluid-particle, and particle-particle interactions are fully resolved. The sediment bed is simulated as a dense pack of particles and the frictional and collisional forces between particles are calculated, whilst the turbulent fluid flow is modeled using a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stocks (RANS) approach. The CFD-DEM model is validated against experimental data in order to assess the reliability of the CFD-DEM model. The modeling results reveal the criticality of particle impact on the assessment of scour depth which, to the authors’ best knowledge, hasn’t been considered in previous studies. The results of this study open new perspectives to the scour depth and time assessment which is the key to manage the failure risk of bridge infrastructures.

Keywords: bridge scour, discrete element method, CFD-DEM model, multi-phase model

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Authors: Yuan Long, Fabrizio Ceschin, David Harrison

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Environmental sustainability is under the threat of excessive single-use plastic packaging waste, and current waste management fails to address this issue. Therefore, it has led to a reidentification of the alternative, which can curb the packaging waste without reducing social needs. Reusable packaging represents a circular approach to close the loop of consumption in which packaging can stay longer in the system to satisfy social needs. However, the implementation of reusable packaging is fragmented and lacks systematic approaches. The product-service system (PSS) is widely regarded as a sustainable business model innovation for embracing circular consumption. As a result, applying PSS to reusable packaging solutions will be promising to address the packaging waste issue. This paper aims at filling the knowledge gap relating to apply PSS to reusable packaging solutions and provide a strategic design tool that could support packaging professionals to design reusable packaging solutions. The methodology of this paper is case studies and workshops to provide a design tool. The respondents are packaging professionals who are packaging consultants, NGO professionals, and entrepreneurs. 57 cases collected show that 15 archetypal models operate in the market. Subsequently, a polarity diagram is developed to embrace those 15 archetypal models, and a total number of 24 experts were invited for the workshop to evaluate the design tool. This research finally provides a strategic design tool to support packaging professionals to design reusable packaging solutions. The application of the tool is to support the understanding of the reusable packaging solutions, analyzing the markets, identifying new opportunities, and generate new business models. The implication of this research is to provide insights for academics and businesses in terms of tackling single-use packaging waste and build a foundation for further development of the reusable packaging solution tool.

Keywords: environmental sustainability, product-service system, reusable packaging, design tool

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Authors: Grmanesh Gidey Kahsay

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In modern technical engineering applications, quality is defined in two ways. The first one is that quality is the parameter that measures a product or service’s characteristics to meet and satisfy the pre-stated or fundamental needs (reliability, durability, serviceability). The second one is the quality of a product or service free of any defect or deficiencies. The American Society for Quality (ASQ) describes quality as a pursuit of optimal solutions to confirm successes and fulfillment to be accountable for the product or service's requirements and expectations. This article focuses on quality engineering tools in modern industrial applications. Quality engineering is a field of engineering that deals with the principles, techniques, models, and applications of the product or service to guarantee quality. Including the entire activities to analyze the product’s design and development, quality engineering emphasizes how to make sure that products and services are designed and developed to meet consumers’ requirements. This episode acquaints with quality tools such as quality systems, auditing, product design, and process control. The finding presents thoughts that aim to improve quality engineering proficiency and effectiveness by introducing essential quality techniques and tools in some selected industries.

Keywords: essential quality tools, quality systems and models, quality management systems, and quality assurance

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Authors: S. Khamtree, T. Ratanawilai, C. Nuntadusit

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Rubberwood is a crucial commercial timber in Southern Thailand. All processes in a rubberwood production depend on the knowledge and expertise of the technicians, especially the drying process. This research aims to develop an empirical model for drying kinetics in rubberwood. During the experiment, the temperature of the hot air and the average air flow velocity were kept at 80-100 °C and 1.75 m/s, respectively. The moisture content in the samples was determined less than 12% in the achievement of drying basis. The drying kinetic was simulated using an empirical solver. The experimental results illustrated that the moisture content was reduced whereas the drying temperature and time were increased. The coefficient of the moisture ratio between the empirical and the experimental model was tested with three statistical parameters, R-square (R²), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Chi-square (χ²) to predict the accuracy of the parameters. The experimental moisture ratio had a good fit with the empirical model. Additionally, the results indicated that the drying of rubberwood using the Henderson and Pabis model revealed the suitable level of agreement. The result presented an excellent estimation (R² = 0.9963) for the moisture movement compared to the other models. Therefore, the empirical results were valid and can be implemented in the future experiments.

Keywords: empirical models, rubberwood, moisture ratio, hot air drying

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Authors: Oladapo Tolulope Ibitoye

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Neural networks have become prominent and widely engaged in algorithmic-based machine learning networks. They are perfect in solving day-to-day issues to a certain extent. Neural networks are computing systems with several interconnected nodes. One of the numerous areas of application of neural networks is object detection. This is a prominent area due to the coronavirus disease pandemic and the post-pandemic phases. Wearing a face mask in public slows the spread of the virus, according to experts’ submission. This calls for the development of a reliable and effective model for detecting face masks on people's faces during compliance checks. The existing neural network models for facemask detection are characterized by their black-box nature and large dataset requirement. The highlighted challenges have compromised the performance of the existing models. The proposed model utilized Faster R-CNN Model on Inception V3 backbone to reduce system complexity and dataset requirement. The model was trained and validated with very few datasets and evaluation results shows an overall accuracy of 96% regardless of skin tone.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, face detection, face mask, masked faces

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Authors: Sedat Yayla, Mehmet Oruc, Shakhwan Yaseen

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Cavitation phenomena might rigorously impair machine parts such as pumps, propellers and impellers or devices as the pressure in the fluid declines under the liquid's saturation pressure. To evaluate the influence of cavitation, in this research two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) venturi models with variety of inlet pressure values, throat lengths and vapor fluid contents were applied. In this research three different vapor contents (0%, 5% 10%), four inlet pressures (2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 atm) and two venturi models were employed at different throat lengths ( 5, 10, 15 and 20 mm) for discovering the impact of each parameter on the cavitation number. It is uncovered that there is a positive correlation between pressure inlet and vapor fluid content and cavitation number. Furthermore, it is unveiled that velocity remains almost constant at the inlet pressures of 6, 8,10atm, nevertheless increasing the length of throat results in the substantial escalation in the velocity of the throat at inlet pressures of 2 and 4 atm. Furthermore, velocity and cavitation number were negatively correlated. The results of the cavitation number varied between 0.092 and 0.495 depending upon the velocity values of the throat.

Keywords: cavitation number, computational fluid dynamics, mixture of fluid, two-phase flow, velocity of throat

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Authors: V. Keim, J. Spachtholz, J. Hammer

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The importance of fibre reinforced plastics continually increases due to the excellent mechanical properties, low material and manufacturing costs combined with significant weight reduction. Today, components are usually designed and calculated numerically by using finite element methods (FEM) to avoid expensive laboratory tests. These programs are based on material models including material specific deformation characteristics. In this research project, material models for short glass fibre reinforced plastics are presented to simulate the visco-elasto-plastic deformation behaviour. Prior to modelling specimens of the material EMS Grivory HTV-5H1, consisting of a Polyphthalamide matrix reinforced by 50wt.-% of short glass fibres, are characterized experimentally in terms of the highly time dependent deformation behaviour of the matrix material. To minimize the experimental effort, the cyclic deformation behaviour under tensile and compressive loading (R = −1) is characterized by isothermal complex low cycle fatigue (CLCF) tests. Combining cycles under two strain amplitudes and strain rates within three orders of magnitude and relaxation intervals into one experiment the visco-elastic deformation is characterized. To identify visco-plastic deformation monotonous tensile tests either displacement controlled or strain controlled (CERT) are compared. All relevant modelling parameters for this complex superposition of simultaneously varying mechanical loadings are quantified by these experiments. Subsequently, two different material models are compared with respect to their accuracy describing the visco-elasto-plastic deformation behaviour. First, based on Chaboche an extended 12 parameter model (EVP-KV2) is used to model cyclic visco-elasto-plasticity at two time scales. The parameters of the model including a total separation of elastic and plastic deformation are obtained by computational optimization using an evolutionary algorithm based on a fitness function called genetic algorithm. Second, the 12 parameter visco-elasto-plastic material model by Launay is used. In detail, the model contains a different type of a flow function based on the definition of the visco-plastic deformation as a part of the overall deformation. The accuracy of the models is verified by corresponding experimental LCF testing.

Keywords: complex low cycle fatigue, material modelling, short glass fibre reinforced polyphthalamides, visco-elasto-plastic deformation

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Authors: John Adebayo Oloyhede

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This paper examines effect of financial liberalization on the stability of the demand for money function and its implication for exchange rate behaviour of three African countries. As the demand for money function is regarded as one of the two main building blocks of most exchange rate determination models, the other being purchasing power parity, its stability is required for the monetary models of exchange rate determination to hold. To what extent has the liberalisation policy of these countries, for instance liberalised interest rate, affected the demand for money function and what has been the consequence on the validity and relevance of floating exchange rate models? The study adopts the Autoregressive Instrumental Package (AIV) of multiple regression technique and followed the Almon Polynomial procedure with zero-end constraint. Data for the period 1986 to 2011 were drawn from three developing countries of Africa, namely: Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria, which did not only start the liberalization and floating system almost at the same period but share similar and diverse economic and financial structures. Its findings show that the demand for money was a stable function of income and interest rate at home and abroad. Other factors such as exchange rate and foreign interest rate exerted some significant effect on domestic money demand. The short-run and long-run elasticity with respect to income, interest rates, expected inflation rate and exchange rate expectation are not greater than zero. This evidence conforms to some extent to the expected behaviour of the domestic money function and underscores its ability to serve as good building block or assumption of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. This will, therefore, assist appropriate monetary authorities in the design and implementation of further financial liberalization policy packages in developing countries.

Keywords: financial liberalisation, exchange rates, demand for money, developing economies

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Authors: Raghavi Janaswamy, Saraswathi K. Vasudev

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Music is ubiquitous in human lives. Ever since the fetus hears the sound inside the mother’s womb and later upon birth, the baby experiences alluring sounds, the curiosity of learning emanates and evokes exploration. Music is an education than mere entertainment. The intricate balance between music, education, and entertainment has well been recognized by the scientific community and is being explored as a viable tool to understand and improve human cognition. There are seven basic swaras (notes) Sa, Ri, Ga, Ma, Pa, Da, and Ni in the Carnatic music system that are analogous to C, D, E, F, G, A, and B of the western system. The Carnatic music builds on the conscious use of microtones, gamakams (oscillation), and rendering styles that evolved over centuries and established its stance. The complex but erudite raga system has been designed with elaborate experiments on srutis (musical sounds) and human perception abilities. In parallel, ‘rasa’- the emotions evoked by certain srutis and hence the ragas been solidified along with the power of language in combination with the musical sounds. The Carnatic music branches out as Kalpita sangeetam (pre-composed music) and Manodharma sangeetam (improvised music). This article explores the Manodharma sangeetam and its subdivisions such as raga alapana, swara kalpana, neraval, and ragam-tanam-pallavi (RTP). The intrinsic mathematical strategies in it’s practice methods toward improvising the music have been explored in detail with concert examples. The techniques on swara weaving for swara kalpana rendering and methods on the alapana development are also discussed at length with an emphasis on the impact on the human cognitive abilities. The articulation of the outlined conscious practice methods not only helps to leave a long-lasting melodic impression on the listeners but also onsets cognitive developments.

Keywords: Carnatic, Manodharmam, music cognition, Alapana

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