Search results for: safety model

Authors: Hee Yong Kang, Hyeon Ho Shin, Jung Cheol Yoo, Il Taek Lee, Sung Mo Yang

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Lightweight technology using composites is being developed for vehicle seat structures, and its design must meet the safety requirements. According to the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) 207 seating systems test procedure, the back moment load is applied to the seat back frame structure for the safety evaluation of the vehicle seat. The seat back frame using the composites is divided into three parts: upper part frame, and left- and right-side frame parts following the manufacturing process. When a rear moment load is applied to the seat back frame, the side frame receives the bending load and the torsional load at the same time. This results in the largest loaded strength. Therefore, strength test of the component unit is required. In this study, a component test method based on the FMVSS 207 seating systems test procedure was proposed for the strength analysis of bending load and torsional load of the automotive Bulk Molding Compound (BMC) Seat Back Side Frame. Moreover, strength evaluation according to the carbon band reinforcement was performed. The back-side frame parts of the seat that are applied to the test were manufactured through BMC that is composed of vinyl ester Matrix and short carbon fiber. Then, two kinds of reinforced and non-reinforced parts of carbon band were formed through a high-temperature compression molding process. In addition, the structure that is applied to the component test was constructed by referring to the FMVSS 207. Then, the bending load and the torsional load were applied through the displacement control to perform the strength test for four load conditions. The results of each test are shown through the load-displacement curves of the specimen. The failure strength of the parts caused by the reinforcement of the carbon band was analyzed. Additionally, the fracture characteristics of the parts for four strength tests were evaluated, and the weakness structure of the back-side frame of the seat structure was confirmed according to the test conditions. Through the bending and torsional strength test methods, we confirmed the strength and fracture characteristics of BMC Seat Back Side Frame according to the carbon band reinforcement. And we proposed a method of testing the part strength of a seat back frame for vehicles that can meet the FMVSS 207.

Keywords: seat back frame, bending and torsional strength, BMC (Bulk Molding Compound), FMVSS 207 seating systems

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Authors: N. C. Sarkar, A. Bhaskar, Z. Zheng

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The driving behavior in area-based (i.e., non-lane based) traffic is induced by the presence of other individuals in the choice space from the driver’s visual perception area. The driving behavior of a subject vehicle is constrained by the potential leaders and leaders are frequently changed over time. This paper is to determine a stochastic model for a parameter of modified intelligent driver model (MIDM) in area-based traffic (as in developing countries). The parametric and non-parametric distributions are presented to fit the parameters of MIDM. The goodness of fit for each parameter is measured in two different ways such as graphically and statistically. The quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot is used for a graphical representation of a theoretical distribution to model a parameter and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is used for a statistical measure of fitness for a parameter with a theoretical distribution. The distributions are performed on a set of estimated parameters of MIDM. The parameters are estimated on the real vehicle trajectory data from India. The fitness of each parameter with a stochastic model is well represented. The results support the applicability of the proposed modeling for parameters of MIDM in area-based traffic flow simulation.

Keywords: area-based traffic, car-following model, micro-simulation, stochastic modeling

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Michael A. Kraus, Navid Pourmoghaddam, Martin Botz, Jens Schneider, Geralt Siebert

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Fragmentation analysis of tempered glass gives insight into the quality of the tempering process and defines a certain degree of safety as well. Different standard such as the European EN 12150-1 or the American ASTM C 1048/CPSC 16 CFR 1201 define a minimum number of fragments required for soda-lime safety glass on the basis of fragmentation test results for classification. This work presents an approach for the glass breakage pattern prediction using a Voronoi Tesselation over Random Fields. The random Voronoi tessellation is trained with and validated against data from several breakage patterns. The fragments in observation areas of 50 mm x 50 mm were used for training and validation. All glass specimen used in this study were commercially available soda-lime glasses at three different thicknesses levels of 4 mm, 8 mm and 12 mm. The results of this work form a Bayesian framework for the training and prediction of breakage patterns of tempered soda-lime glass using a Voronoi Random Field Tesselation. Uncertainties occurring in this process can be well quantified, and several statistical measures of the pattern can be preservation with this method. Within this work it was found, that different Random Fields as basis for the Voronoi Tesselation lead to differently well fitted statistical properties of the glass breakage patterns. As the methodology is derived and kept general, the framework could be also applied to other random tesselations and crack pattern modelling purposes.

Keywords: glass breakage predicition, Voronoi Random Field Tessellation, fragmentation analysis, Bayesian parameter identification

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Authors: D. D. Nguyen, H. S. Park, S. W. Yang, B. Thusa, Y. M. Kim, T. H. Lee

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Currently, the design response spectrum (i.e., Nuclear Regulatory Commission - NRC 1.60 spectrum) with the peak ground acceleration (PGA) 0.3g (for Safe Shutdown Earthquake level) is specified for designing the new nuclear power plant (NPP) structures in Korea. However, the recent earthquakes in the region such as the 2016 Gyeongju and the 2017 Pohang earthquake showed that the possible PGA of ground motions can be larger than 0.3g. Therefore, there is a need to analyze the seismic performance of the existing NPP structures under these earthquakes. An NPP model, APR-1400, which is designed and built in Korea was selected for a case study. The NPP structure is numerically modeled in terms of lumped-mass stick elements using OpenSees framework. The floor acceleration and displacement of components are measured to quantify the responses of components. The numerical results show that the floor spectral accelerations are significantly amplified in the components subjected to Korean earthquakes. A comparison between floor response spectra of Korean earthquakes and the NRC design motion highlights that the seismic design level of NPP components under an earthquake should be thoroughly reconsidered. Additionally, a seismic safety assessment of the equipment and relays attached to main structures is also required.

Keywords: nuclear power plant, floor response spectra, Korean earthquake, NRC spectrum

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Authors: Azizah Che Omar

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The study provides a systematic literature review which analyzed the literature for the purpose of looking for concepts, theories, approaches and guidelines in order to propose a conceptual design model of interactive television advertising toward impulse purchase (iTVAdIP). An extensive review of literature was purposely carried out to understand the concepts of interactive television (iTV). Therefore, some elements; iTV guidelines, advertising theories, persuasive approaches, and the impulse purchase elements were analyzed to reach the scope of this work. The extensive review was also a necessity to achieve the objective of this study, which was to determine the concept of iTVAdIP design model. Through systematic review analysis, this study discovered that all the previous models did not emphasize the conceptual design model of interactive television advertising. As a result, the finding showed that the concept of the proposed model should contain the iTV guidelines, advertising theory, persuasive approach and impulse purchase elements. In addition, a summary diagram for the development of the proposed model is depicted to provide clearer understanding towards the concepts of conceptual design model of iTVAdIP.

Keywords: impulse purchase, interactive television advertising, human computer interaction, advertising theories

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Authors: Woo-Young Jung, Minho Kwon

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Seismic design criteria based on performance of structures have recently been adopted by practicing engineers in response to destructive earthquakes. A simple but efficient structural-analysis tool capable of predicting both the strength and ductility is needed to analyze reinforced concrete (RC) structures under such event. A three-dimensional lattice model is developed in this study to analyze torsions in high-strength RC members. Optimization techniques for determining optimal variables in each lattice model are introduced. Pure torsion tests of RC members are performed to validate the proposed model. Correlation studies between the numerical and experimental results confirm that the proposed model is well capable of representing salient features of the experimental results.

Keywords: torsion, non-linear analysis, three-dimensional lattice, high-strength concrete

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Authors: Yuhang Wang, Jorg Schluter, Sergiy Shelyag

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The high cost associated with high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is one of the main challenges that inhibit the design, development, and optimisation of new combustion systems adapted for renewable fuels. In this study, we propose a physics-guided CNN-based model to predict turbulence evolution and mixing without requiring a traditional CFD solver. The model architecture is built upon U-Net and the inception module, while a physics-guided loss function is designed by introducing two additional physical constraints to allow for the conservation of both mass and pressure over the entire predicted flow fields. Then, the model is trained on the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) results of a natural turbulent mixing layer with two different Reynolds number cases (Re = 3000 and 30000). As a result, the model prediction shows an excellent agreement with the corresponding CFD solutions in terms of both spatial distributions and temporal evolution of turbulent mixing. Such promising model prediction performance opens up the possibilities of doing accurate high-resolution manifold-based combustion simulations at a low computational cost for accelerating the iterative design process of new combustion systems.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, turbulence, machine learning, combustion modelling

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Authors: Jessica Gladden

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Yoga has been accepted in the majority of communities in the United States as a method of assisting individuals with improving their physical health. Both community yoga classes and yoga-based therapy have been shown to be highly useful for individual’s mental health. Yoga-based therapy has been supported by research to be an evidence-based practice for individuals experiencing anxiety, depression, and disordered eating and for those experiencing post traumatic stress disorder in the wake of trauma. Many individuals who have experienced trauma, as well as other mental health diagnoses, are either very disconnected from their physical bodies or feel unsafe in their bodies. Yoga can be a method of creating safety and control in the body. This is recommended by some of the leading researchers in trauma therapy as a beginning step towards finding safety in the body in order to begin to work on the additional mental health challenges before addressing other long-term challenges. Unfortunately, yoga for physical and mental health is underutilized in black and brown communities despite the research regarding the benefits. Very few studies have examined the barriers to access to yoga for black, brown, and indigenous individuals. This study interviewed 15 yoga practitioners who identified as black or brown and explored the barriers they see in their communities related to accessing yoga and yoga-based services. Several of the themes reported include not feeling welcome, cost of services, time, and cultural/ religious components. Methods for reducing barriers will also be discussed.

Keywords: yoga, sport, barrier, black

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Authors: Ivy Rose Mathew

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The purpose of this study is to outline the efficacy of technology and the opportunities it can bring to implement a successful delivery model in Distance Learning. Distance Learning has proliferated over the past few years across the world. Some of the current challenges faced by current students of distance education include lack of motivation, a sense of isolation and a need for greater and improved communication. Hence the author proposes a creative technology supported model for distance learning exactly mirrored on the traditional face to face learning that can be adopted by distance learning providers. This model suggests the usage of a range of technologies and social networking facilities, with the aim of creating a more engaging and sustaining learning environment to help overcome the isolation often noted by distance learners. While discussing the possibilities, the author also highlights the complexity and practical challenges of implementing such a model. Design/methodology/approach: Theoretical issues from previous research related to successful models for distance learning providers will be considered. And also the analysis of a case study from one of the largest private tertiary institution in Botswana, Botho University will be included. This case study illustrates important aspects of the distance learning delivery model and provides insights on how curriculum development is planned, quality assurance is done, and learner support is assured for successful distance learning experience. Research limitations/implications: While some of the aspects of this study may not be applicable to other contexts, a number of new providers of distance learning can adapt the key principles of this delivery model.

Keywords: distance learning, efficacy, learning experience, technology supported model

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Authors: Shahram Jamali, Samira Hamed

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One of the open issues in Random Early Detection (RED) algorithm is how to set its parameters to reach high performance for the dynamic conditions of the network. Although original RED uses fixed values for its parameters, this paper follows a model-based approach to upgrade performance of the RED algorithm. It models the routers queue behavior by using the Markov model and uses this model to predict future conditions of the queue. This prediction helps the proposed algorithm to make some tunings over RED's parameters and provide efficiency and better performance. Widespread packet level simulations confirm that the proposed algorithm, called Markov-RED, outperforms RED and FARED in terms of queue stability, bottleneck utilization and dropped packets count.

Keywords: active queue management, RED, Markov model, random early detection algorithm

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Authors: Robert Poenaru, Mihail Pleşa

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In this work, a solution that addresses the protection of pre-trained neural networks is developed: Singularization. This method involves applying permutations to the weight matrices of a pre-trained model, introducing a form of structured noise that obscures the original model’s architecture. These permutations make it difficult for an attacker to reconstruct the original model, even if the permuted weights are obtained. Experimental benchmarks indicate that the application of singularization has a profound impact on model performance, often degrading it to the point where retraining from scratch becomes necessary to recover functionality, which is particularly effective for securing intellectual property in neural networks. Moreover, unlike other approaches, singularization is lightweight and computationally efficient, which makes it well suited for resource-constrained environments. Our experiments also demonstrate that this technique performs efficiently in various image classification tasks, highlighting its broad applicability and practicality in real-world scenarios.

Keywords: machine learning, ANE, CNN, security

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Authors: Vinayak Malaghan, Digvijay Pawar

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Speed is the independent parameter which plays a vital role in the highway design. Design consistency of the highways is checked based on the variation in the operating speed. Often the design consistency fails to meet the driver’s expectation which results in the difference between operating and design speed. Literature reviews have shown that significant crashes take place in horizontal curves due to lack of design consistency. The paper focuses on continuous speed profile study on tangent to curve transition for both day and night daytime. Data is collected using GPS device which gives continuous speed profile and other parameters such as acceleration, deceleration were analyzed along with Tangent to Curve Transition. In this present study, models were developed to predict operating speed on tangents and horizontal curves as well as model indicating the speed reduction from tangent to curve based on continuous speed profile data. It is observed from the study that vehicle tends to decelerate from approach tangent to between beginning of the curve and midpoint of the curve and then accelerates from curve to tangent transition. The models generated were compared for both day and night and can be used in the road safety improvement by evaluating the geometric design consistency.

Keywords: operating speed, design consistency, continuous speed profile data, day and night time

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Authors: Behzad Niknam, Kourosh Shahriar, Hassan Madani

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This paper demonstrates the applicability of Hybrid Neural Networks that combine with back propagation networks (BPN) and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) for predicting the flame length of tunnel fire A hybrid neural network model has been developed to predict the flame length of tunnel fire based parameters such as Fire Heat Release rate, air velocity, tunnel width, height and cross section area. The network has been trained with experimental data obtained from experimental work. The hybrid neural network model learned the relationship for predicting the flame length in just 3000 training epochs. After successful learning, the model predicted the flame length.

Keywords: tunnel fire, flame length, ANN, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Samuel Opeyemi Williams, Razali Bin Adul Hamid, M. S. Misnan, Taki Eddine Seghier, D. I. Ajayi

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Construction sites are characterized with occupational risks. Review of literature on construction accidents reveals that a lot of theories have been propounded over the years by different theorists, coupled with multifarious models developed by different proponents at different times. Accidents are unplanned events that are prominent in construction sites, involving materials, objects and people with attendant damages, loses and injuries. Models were developed to investigate the causations of accident with the aim of preventing its occurrence. Though, some of these theories were criticized, most especially, the Heinrich Domino theory, being mostly faulted for placing much blame on operatives rather than the management. The purpose of this paper is to unravel the significant construction accident causation theories and models for the benefit of understanding of the theories, and consequently enabling construction stakeholders identify the possible potential hazards on construction sites, as all stakeholders have significant roles to play in preventing accident. Accidents are preventable; hence, understanding the risk factors of accident and the causation theories paves way for its prevention. However, findings reveal that still some gaps missing in the existing models, while it is recommended that further research can be made in order to develop more models in order to maintain zero accident on construction sites.

Keywords: domino theory, construction site, site safety, accident causation model

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Authors: Duvert A. Puentes T., Javier A. Maldonado E., Ivan Quintero., Diego F. Villegas

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Mechanical Computation is a great tool to study the performance of complex models. An example of it is the study of the human body structure. This paper took advantage of different types of software to make a 3D model of the glenohumeral joint and apply a finite element analysis. The main objective was to study the change in the biomechanical properties of the joint when it presents an injury. Specifically, a BANKART lesion, which consists in the detachment of the anteroinferior labrum from the glenoid. Stress and strain distribution of the soft tissues were the focus of this study. First, a 3D model was made of a joint without any pathology, as a control sample, using segmentation software for the bones with the support of medical imagery and a cadaveric model to represent the soft tissue. The joint was built to simulate a compression and external rotation test using CAD to prepare the model in the adequate position. When the healthy model was finished, it was submitted to a finite element analysis and the results were validated with experimental model data. With the validated model, it was sensitized to obtain the best mesh measurement. Finally, the geometry of the 3D model was changed to imitate a BANKART lesion. Then, the contact zone of the glenoid with the labrum was slightly separated simulating a tissue detachment. With this new geometry, the finite element analysis was applied again, and the results were compared with the control sample created initially. With the data gathered, this study can be used to improve understanding of the labrum tears. Nevertheless, it is important to remember that the computational analysis are approximations and the initial data was taken from an in vitro assay.

Keywords: biomechanics, computational model, finite elements, glenohumeral joint, bankart lesion, labrum

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Authors: R. Ananthanarayanan, S. B. Nakula, D. R. Seenivasagam, J. Naua, B. Sharma

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Product packaging is a critical component of production, trade, and marketing, playing numerous vital roles that often go unnoticed by consumers. Packaging is essential for maintaining the shelf life, quality assurance, and safety of both manufactured and agricultural products. For example, harvested produce or processed foods can quickly lose quality and freshness, making secure packaging crucial for preservation and safety throughout the food supply chain. In Fiji, agricultural packaging has primarily been managed by local companies for international trade, with gradual advancements in these practices. To further enhance the industry’s performance, this study examines the challenges and constraints hindering the optimization of agricultural packaging practices in Fiji. The study utilizes Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) tools, specifically Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC). ISM analyzes the hierarchical structure of barriers, categorizing them from the least to the most influential, while MICMAC classifies barriers based on their driving and dependence power. This approach helps identify the interrelationships between barriers, providing valuable insights for policymakers and decision-makers to propose innovative solutions for sustainable development in the agricultural packaging sector, ultimately shaping the future of packaging practices in Fiji.

Keywords: agricultural packaging, barriers, ISM, MICMAC

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Authors: Sabine A. Zauchner-Studnicka

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As the term indicates, reverse-mentoring flips the classical roles of mentoring: In school, students take over the role of mentors for adults, i.e. teachers or parents. Originally reverse-mentoring stems from US enterprises, which implemented this innovative method in order to benefit from the resources of skilled younger employees for the enhancement of IT competences of senior colleagues. However, reverse-mentoring in schools worldwide is rare. Based on empirical studies and theoretical approaches, in this article an implementation model for reverse-mentoring is developed in order to bring the significant potential reverse-mentoring has for education into practice.

Keywords: reverse-mentoring, innovation in education, implementation model, school education

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Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: electricity price, k-factor GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, forecasting

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Authors: S. Dhib, S. A. Addouche, T. Loukil, A. Elmhamedi

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In this paper, a reverse supply chain network is investigated for a decision making. This decision is surrounded by complex flows of returned products, due to the increasing quantity, the type of returned products and the variety of recovery option products (reuse, recycling, and refurbishment). The most important problem in the reverse logistic network (RLN) is to orient returned products to the suitable type of recovery option. However, returned products orientations from collect sources to the recovery disposition have not well considered in performance model. In this study, we propose a performance model for designing a network configuration on reverse logistics. Conceptual and analytical models are developed with taking into account operational, economic and environmental factors on designing network.

Keywords: reverse logistics, network design, performance model, open loop configuration

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Authors: M. R. Gholizadeh, N. Bhuiyan, M. Salari

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In the near future, companies will be increasingly forced to shift their activities along a new road in order to decrease the harmful effects of their design, production and after-life on our environment. Products must meet environmental standards to not only prevent penalties but to consider the sustainability for future generations. However, the most important factor that companies will face is selecting a reasonable strategy to maximize their profit. Thus, companies need to have precise forecast from their profit after design stage through Trade-off analysis. This paper is an attempt to introduce a mathematical model that considers effective factors that impact the total profit when products are designed for resource and energy efficiency or recyclability. The modification is according to different strategies based on a Cost-Volume-Profit model. Here, the cost structure consists of Recycling cost, Development cost, Ramp-up cost, Production cost, and Pollution cost. Also, the model shows the effect of implementation of design for recyclable on revenue structure through revenue of used parts and revenue of recycled materials. A numerical example is used to evaluate the proposed model. Results show that fulfillment of Green Product Development not only can reduce the environmental impact of products but also it will increase profit of company in long term.

Keywords: green product, design for environment, C-V-P model, trade-off analysis

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Authors: Sana Bembli, Nahla Khraief Haddad, Safya Belghith

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This paper deals with a robust model free terminal sliding mode with gravity compensation approach used to control an exoskeleton-upper limb system. The considered system is a 2-DoF robot in interaction with an upper limb used for rehabilitation. The aim of this paper is to control the flexion/extension movement of the shoulder and the elbow joints in presence of matched disturbances. In the first part, we present the exoskeleton-upper limb system modeling. Then, we controlled the considered system by the model free terminal sliding mode with gravity compensation. A stability study is realized. To prove the controller performance, a robustness analysis was needed. Simulation results are provided to confirm the robustness of the gravity compensation combined with to the Model free terminal sliding mode in presence of uncertainties.

Keywords: exoskeleton- upper limb system, model free terminal sliding mode, gravity compensation, robustness analysis

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Authors: Samvel H. Sargsyan

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Together with the study of electron-optical properties of nanostructures and proceeding from experiment-based data, the study of the mechanical properties of nanostructures has become quite actual. For the study of the mechanical properties of fullerene, carbon nanotubes, graphene and other nanostructures one of the crucial issues is the construction of their adequate mathematical models. Among all mathematical models of graphene or carbon nano-tubes, this so-called discrete-continuous model is specifically important. It substitutes the interactions between atoms by elastic beams or springs. The present paper demonstrates the construction of the discrete-continual beam model for carbon nanotubes or graphene, where the micropolar beam model based on the theory of moment elasticity is accepted. With the account of the energy balance principle, the elastic moment constants for the beam model, expressed by the physical and geometrical parameters of carbon nanotube or graphene, are determined. By switching from discrete-continual beam model to the continual, the models of micropolar elastic cylindrical shell and micropolar elastic plate are confirmed as continual models for carbon nanotube and graphene respectively.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, discrete-continual, elastic, graphene, micropolar, plate, shell

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Authors: Al-Naqdi Ibtehal Abdulmonem

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Kindergarten buildings are essential for early childhood education, providing a secure environment for children's development. However, they are susceptible to seismic forces, which can endanger occupants during earthquakes. This article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough seismic analysis and implementing proper structural design to protect the well-being of children, staff, and visitors. By prioritizing structural integrity and considering functional requirements, engineers can mitigate risks associated with seismic events. The use of specialized software like ETABS is crucial for designing earthquake-resistant kindergartens. An analysis using ETABS software compared the structural performance of two single-story kindergartens in Iraq's Ministry of Education, designed with and without seismic considerations. The analysis aimed to assess the impact of seismic design on structural integrity and safety. The kindergarten was designed with seismic considerations, including moment frames. In contrast, the same kindergarten was analyzed without seismic effects, revealing a lack of structural elements to resist lateral forces, rendering it vulnerable to structural failure during an earthquake. Maximum major shear increased over 4 times and over 5 times for bending moment in both kindergartens designed with seismic considerations induced by lateral loads and seismic forces. This component of shear force is vital for designing elements to resist lateral loads and ensure structural stability.

Keywords: seismic analysis, structural design, lateral loads, earthquake resistance, major shear, ETABS

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Authors: A. Swetha

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This study aims to prioritize and explore critical risks in construction project assessment, employing the Weighted Average Index method and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Through extensive literature review and expert interviews, project assessment risk factors were identified across Budget and Cost Management Risk, Schedule and Time Management Risk, Scope and Planning Risk, Safety and Regulatory Compliance Risk, Resource Management Risk, Communication and Stakeholder Management Risk, and Environmental and Sustainability Risk domains. A questionnaire was distributed to stakeholders involved in construction activities in Hyderabad, India, with 180 completed responses analyzed using the Weighted Average Index method to prioritize risk factors. Subsequently, PCA was used to understand relationships between these factors and uncover underlying patterns. Results highlighted dependencies on critical resources, inadequate risk assessment, cash flow constraints, and safety concerns as top priorities, while factors like currency exchange rate fluctuations and delayed information dissemination ranked lower but remained significant. These insights offer valuable guidance for stakeholders to mitigate risks effectively and enhance project outcomes. By adopting systematic risk assessment and management approaches, construction projects in Hyderabad and beyond can navigate challenges more efficiently, ensuring long-term viability and resilience.

Keywords: construction project assessment risk factor, risk prioritization, weighted average index, principal component analysis, project risk factors

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Authors: Ibrahim Suliman Hanaish

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Disaggregation daily rainfall using stochastic models formulated based on multivariate approach (MuDRain) is discussed in this paper. Seven rain gauge stations are considered in this study for different distances from the referred station starting from 4 km to 160 km in Peninsular Malaysia. The hourly rainfall data used are covered the period from 1973 to 2008 and July and November months are considered as an example of dry and wet periods. The cross-correlation among the rain gauges is considered for the available hourly rainfall information at the neighboring stations or not. This paper discussed the applicability of the MuDRain model for disaggregation daily rainfall to hourly rainfall for both sources of cross-correlation. The goodness of fit of the model was based on the reproduction of fitting statistics like the means, variances, coefficients of skewness, lag zero cross-correlation of coefficients and the lag one auto correlation of coefficients. It is found the correlation coefficients based on extracted correlations that was based on daily are slightly higher than correlations based on available hourly rainfall especially for neighboring stations not more than 28 km. The results showed also the MuDRain model did not reproduce statistics very well. In addition, a bad reproduction of the actual hyetographs comparing to the synthetic hourly rainfall data. Mean while, it is showed a good fit between the distribution function of the historical and synthetic hourly rainfall. These discrepancies are unavoidable because of the lowest cross correlation of hourly rainfall. The overall performance indicated that the MuDRain model would not be appropriate choice for disaggregation daily rainfall.

Keywords: rainfall disaggregation, multivariate disaggregation rainfall model, correlation, stochastic model

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Authors: Amadou Banda Ndione, Charles Awono Onana

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In this paper the compartmental approach is applied to build a macroeconomic model characterized by countries. We consider a total of N countries that are subdivided into three compartments according to their economic status: D(t) denotes the compartment of developing countries at time t, E(t) stands for the compartment of emerging countries at time t while A(t) represents advanced countries at time t. The model describes the process of economic development and includes the notion of openness through collaborations between countries. Two delays appear in this model to describe the average time necessary for collaborations between countries to become efficient for their development process. Our model represents the different stages of development. It further gives the conditions under which a country can change its economic status and demonstrates the short-term positive effect of openness on economic growth. In addition, we investigate bifurcation by considering the delay as a bifurcation parameter and examine the onset and termination of Hopf bifurcations from a positive equilibrium. Numerical simulations are provided in order to illustrate the theoretical part and to support discussion.

Keywords: compartmental systems, delayed dynamical system, economic development, fiscal policy, hopf bifurcation

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Authors: M. Rutkowski, J. Cwiklak, M. Grzegorzewski, M. Adamski

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All class A Airplanes have to be equipped with Mod. S transponder for ATC surveillance purposes. This technology was designed to provide a robust and dependable solution to localize, identify and exchange data with the airplane. The purpose of this paper is to analyze potential hazards that are a result of lack of any security or encryption on a design level. Secondary Surveillance Radars rely on an active response from an airplane. SSR radar installation is broadcasting a directional interrogation signal to the planes in range on 1030MHz frequency with DPSK modulation. If the interrogation is correctly received by the transponder located on the plane, a proper answer is sent on 1090MHz with PPM modulation containing plane’s SQUAWK, barometric altitude, GPS coordinates and 24bit unique address code. This technology does not use any kind of encryption. All of the specifications from the previous chapter can be found easily on the internet. Since there is no encryption or security measure to ensure the credibility of the sender and message, it is highly hazardous to use such technology to ensure the safety of the air traffic. The only thing that identifies the airplane is the 24-bit unique address. Most of the planes have been sniffed by aviation enthusiasts and cataloged in web databases. In the moment of writing this article, The PoFung Technologies has announced that they are planning to release all band SDR transceiver – this device would be more than enough to build your own Mod. S Transponder. With fake transponder, a potential terrorist can identify as a different airplane. By replacing the transponder in a poorly controlled airspace, hijackers can enter another airspace identifying themselves as another plane and land in the desired area.

Keywords: flight safety, hijack, mod S transponder, security analysis

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Noel Smith

Abstract:

To achieve professional registration, UK social workers need to complete a programme of education and training which meets standards set down by central government. When it comes to practice, social work in local authorities must fulfil requirements of national legislation but there is considerable local variation in the organisation and delivery of services. This presentation discusses the on-going reform of social work education by central government in the context of research of social work services in a local authority. In doing so it highlights that the ‘direction of travel’ of the national reform of social work education seems at odds with the trajectory of development of local social work services. In terms of education reform, the presentation cites key government initiatives including the knowledge and skills requirements which have been published separately for, respectively, child and family social work and adult social work. Also relevant is the Government’s new ‘teaching partnership’ pilot which focuses exclusively on social work in local government, in isolation from social work in NGOs. In terms of research, the presentation discusses two studies undertaken by Professor Smith in Suffolk County Council, a local authority in the east of England. The first is an equality impact analysis of the introduction of a new model for the delivery of adult and community services in Suffolk. This is based on qualitative research with local government representatives and NGOs involved in social work with older people and people with disabilities. The second study is an on-going, mixed method evaluation of the introduction of a new model of social care for children and young people in Suffolk. This new model is based on the international ‘Signs of Safety’ approach, which is applied in this model to a wide range of services from early intervention to child protection. While both studies are localised, the service models they examine are good illustrations of the way services are developing nationally. Analysis of these studies suggest that, if services continue to develop as they currently are, then social workers will require particular skills which are not be adequately addressed in the Government’s plans for social work education. Two issues arise. First, education reform concentrates on social work within local government while increasingly local authorities are outsourcing service provision to NGOs, expecting greater community involvement in providing care, and integrating social care with health care services. Second, education reform focuses on the different skills required for working with older and disabled adults and working with children and families, to the point where potentially the profession would be fragmented into two different classes of social worker. In contrast, the development of adult and children’s services in local authorities re-asserts the importance of common social work skills relating to personalisation, prevention and community development. The presentation highlights the importance for social work education in the UK to be forward looking, in terms of the changing design of service delivery, and outward looking, in terms of lessons to be drawn from international social work.

Keywords: adult social work, children and families social work, European social work, social work education

Procedia PDF Downloads 298