Search results for: temporal change

Authors: Thimma Reddy Pothireddy, Ramesh Srikonda

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India is prone to natural disasters such as Floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes and landslides frequently due to its geographical considerations. It has become a persistent phenomenon as observed in last ten decades. The recent survey indicates that about 60% of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of various intensities with reference to Richard scale, over 40 million hectares is prone to floods; about 8% of the total area is prone to cyclones and 68% of the area is vulnerable to drought. Climate change is likely to be perceived through the experience of extreme weather events. There is growing societal concern about climate change, given the potential impacts of associated natural hazards such as cyclones, flooding, earthquakes, landslides etc. The recent natural calamities such as Cyclone Hudhud had crossed the land at Northern cost of AP, Vishakapatanam on 12 Oct’2014 with a wind speed ranging between 175 – 200 kmph and the records show that the tidal waves were reached to the height of 14mts and above; and it alarms us to have critical focus on planning issues so as to find appropriate solutions. The existing condition is effective is in terms of institutional set up along with responsive management mechanism of disaster mitigation but considerations at settlement planning level to allow mitigation operations are not adequate. This paper deals to understand the response to climate change will possibly happen through adaptation to climate hazards and essential to work out an appropriate mechanism and disaster receptive settlement planning for responding to natural (and climate-related) calamities particularly to cyclones and floods. The statistics indicate that 40 million hectares flood prone (5% of area), and 1853 kmts of cyclone prone coastal length in India so it is essential and crucial to have appropriate physical planning considerations to improve preparedness and to operate mitigation measures effectively to minimize the loss and damage. Vijayawada capital region which is susceptible to cyclonic and floods has been studied with respect to trajectory analysis to work out risk vulnerability and to integrated disaster mitigation physical planning considerations.

Keywords: meta analysis, vulnerability index, physical planning, trajectories

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang, Yi-Wen Chen

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Urban ecosystems are complex coupled human-environment systems. They contain abundant natural resources for producing natural assets and attract urban assets to consume natural resources for urban development. Urban ecosystems provide several ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services, and supporting services. Rapid global climate change makes urban ecosystems and their ecosystem services encountering various natural disasters. Lots of natural disasters have occurred around the world under the constant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the past two decades. In Taiwan, hydrological disasters have been paid more attention due to the potential high sensitivity of Taiwan’s cities to climate change, and it impacts. However, climate change not only causes extreme weather events directly but also affects the interactions among human, ecosystem services and their dynamic feedback processes indirectly. Therefore, this study adopts a systematic method, solar energy synthesis, based on the concept of the eco-energy analysis. The Taipei area, the most densely populated area in Taiwan, is selected as the study area. The changes of ecosystem services between 2015 and Typhoon Soudelor have been compared in order to investigate the impacts of extreme precipitation events on ecosystem services. The results show that the forest areas are the largest contributions of energy to ecosystem services in the Taipei area generally. Different soil textures of different subsystem have various upper limits of water contents or substances. The major contribution of ecosystem services of the study area is natural hazard regulation provided by the surface water resources areas. During the period of Typhoon Soudelor, the freshwater supply in the forest areas had become the main contribution. Erosion control services were the main ecosystem service affected by Typhoon Soudelor. The second and third main ecosystem services were hydrologic regulation and food supply. Due to the interactions among ecosystem services, fresh water supply, water purification, and waste treatment had been affected severely.

Keywords: ecosystem, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, solar energy synthesis

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Authors: Dominique Parrish

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Globally, higher education institutions are responsible for the quality assurance and accreditation of their educational programmes (Courses). The primary purpose of these activities is to ensure that the educational standards of the governing higher education authority are met and the quality of the education provided to students is assured. Despite policies and frameworks being established in many countries, to improve the veracity and accountability of quality assurance and accreditation processes, there are reportedly still mistakes, gaps and deficiencies in these processes. An analysis of Australian universities’ quality assurance and accreditation processes noted that significant improvements were needed in managing these processes and ensuring that review recommendations were implemented. It has also been suggested that the following principles are critical for higher education quality assurance and accreditation to be effective and sustainable: academic standards and performance outcomes must be defined, attainable and monitored; those involved in providing the higher education must assume responsibility for the associated quality assurance and accreditation; potential academic risks must be identified and management solutions developed; and the expectations of the public, governments and students should be considered and incorporated into Course enhancements. This phenomenological study, which was conducted in a Faculty of Science, Medicine and Health in an Australian university, sought to systematically and iteratively develop an effective quality assurance and accreditation process that integrated the evidence-based principles of success and promoted meaningful and sustainable change. Qualitative evaluative feedback was gathered, over a period of eleven months (January - November 2014), from faculty staff engaged in the quality assurance and accreditation of forty-eight undergraduate and postgraduate Courses. Reflexive analysis was used to analyse the data and inform ongoing modifications and developments to the assurance and accreditation process as well as the associated supporting resources. The study resulted in the development of a formal quality assurance and accreditation process together with a suite of targeted resources that were identified as critical for success. The research findings also provided some insights into the institutional enablers that were antecedents to successful quality assurance and accreditation processes as well as meaningful change in the educational practices of academics. While longitudinal data will be collected to further assess the value of the assurance and accreditation process on educational quality, early indicators are that there has been a change in the pedagogical perspectives and activities of academic staff and growing momentum to explore opportunities to further enhance and develop Courses. This presentation will explain the formal quality assurance and accreditation process as well as the component parts, which resulted from this study. The targeted resources that were developed will be described, the pertinent factors that contributed to the success of the process will be discussed and early indicators of sustainable academic change as well as suggestions for future research will be outlined.

Keywords: academic standards, quality assurance and accreditation, phenomenological study, process, resources

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Authors: Wenjuan Du, Jingtian Bi, Tong Wang, Haifeng Wang

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Grid connection of a large-scale wind farm affects power system small-signal angular stability in two aspects. Firstly, connection of the wind farm brings about the change of load flow and configuration of a power system. Secondly, the dynamic interaction is introduced by the wind farm with the synchronous generators (SGs) in the power system. This paper proposes a method to assess the two aspects of the effect of the wind farm on power system small-signal angular stability. The effect of the change of load flow/system configuration brought about by the wind farm can be examined separately by displacing wind farms with constant power sources, then the effect of the dynamic interaction of the wind farm with the SGs can be also computed individually. Thus, a clearer picture and better understanding on the power system small-signal angular stability as affected by grid connection of the large-scale wind farm are provided. In the paper, an example power system with grid connection of a wind farm is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: power system small-signal angular stability, power system low-frequency oscillations, electromechanical oscillation modes, wind farms, double fed induction generator (DFIG)

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Authors: Ali Reza Sattarzadeh, Ronny J. Kutadinata, Pubudu N. Pathirana, Van Thanh Huynh

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Traffic congestion has become a severe worldwide problem, affecting everyday life, fuel consumption, time, and air pollution. The primary causes of these issues are inadequate transportation infrastructure, poor traffic signal management, and rising population. Traffic flow forecasting is one of the essential and effective methods in urban congestion and traffic management, which has attracted the attention of researchers. With the development of technology, undeniable progress has been achieved in existing methods. However, there is a possibility of improvement in the extraction of temporal and spatial features to determine the importance of traffic flow sequences and extraction features. In the proposed model, we implement the convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning models for mining nonlinear correlations and their effectiveness in increasing the accuracy of traffic flow prediction in the real dataset. According to the experiments, the results indicate that implementing Conv-LSTM networks increases the productivity and accuracy of deep learning models for traffic flow prediction.

Keywords: deep learning algorithms, intelligent transportation systems, spatiotemporal features, traffic flow prediction

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Authors: Ekrem Canli, Thomas Glade

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The precise prediction of rainfall in space and time is a key element to most landslide early warning systems. Unfortunately, the spatial variability of rainfall in many early warning applications is often disregarded. A common simplification is to use uniformly distributed rainfall to characterize aerial rainfall intensity. With spatially differentiated rainfall information, real-time comparison with rainfall thresholds or the implementation in process-based approaches might form the basis for improved landslide warnings. This study suggests an automated workflow from the hourly, web-based collection of rain gauge data to the generation of spatially differentiated rainfall predictions based on kriging. Because the application of kriging is usually a labor intensive task, a simplified and consequently automated variogram modeling procedure was applied to up-to-date rainfall data. The entire workflow was carried out purely with open source technology. Validation results, albeit promising, pointed out the challenges that are involved in pure distance based, automated geostatistical interpolation techniques for ever-changing environmental phenomena over short temporal and spatial extent.

Keywords: kriging, landslide early warning system, spatial rainfall prediction, variogram modelling, web scraping

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Authors: E. Maoz

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Background: As a teaching method, project-based learning is strongly linked to developing students’ critical thinking skills. It combines creative independent thinking, team work, and disciplinary subject-field integration. In the 'Introduction to Nursing Research Methods' course (year 3, Generic Track), project based learning is used to teach the topic of 'Evidence-Based Nursing'. This topic examines a clinical care issue encountered by students in the field. At the end of their project, students present proposals for managing the said issue. Proposals are the product of independent integrative thinking integrating a wide range of factors influencing the issue’s management. Method: Papers by 27 groups of students (165 students) were content analyzed to identify which themes emerged from the students' recommendations for managing the clinical issue. Findings: Five main themes emerged—current management approach; adapting procedures in line with current recent research recommendations; training for change (veteran nursing staff, beginner students, patients, significant others); analysis of 'economic benefit vs. patient benefit'; multidisciplinary team engagement in implementing change in practice. Two surprising themes also emerged: advertising and marketing using new technologies, which reflects how the new generation thinks. Summary and Recommendations: Among the main challenges in nursing education is training nursing graduates to think independently, integratively, and critically. Combining PBL with classical teaching methods stimulates students cognitively while opening new vistas with implications on all levels of the profession: management, research, education, and practice. Advanced students can successfully grasp and interpret the current state of clinical practice. They are competent and open to leading change and able to consider the diverse factors and interconnections that characterize the nurse's work.

Keywords: evidence based nursing, critical thinking skills, project based learning, students education

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Authors: ZerarkaHizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

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Landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) has been an old slip since 1969; it was reactivated after an intense rainfall period in 2008 where it presents a complex shape and affects broad areas. The schist of AEH is more or less altered; the alteration is facilitated by the fracturing of the rock in its upper part, the presence of flowing water as well as physical and chemical mechanisms of desegregation in joint of altered schist. The factors following these instabilities are mostly related to the geological formation, the hydro-climatic conditions and the topography of the region. The city of AEH is located on the top of a steep slope at 50 km from the city of TiziOuzou (Algeria). AEH’s topographic monitoring of unstable slope allows analyzing the structure and the different deformation mechanism and the gradual change in the geometry, the direction of change of slip. It also allows us to delimit the area affected by the movement. This work aims to study the behavior of AEH landslide with topographic monitoring and to validate the results with numerical modeling of the slip site, when the hydraulic factors are identified as the most important factors for the reactivation of this landslide. With the help of the numerical code PLAXIS 2D and PlaxFlow, the precipitations and the steady state flow are modeled. To identify the mechanism of deformation and to predict the spread of the AEH landslide numerically, we used the equivalent deviatory strain, and these results were visualized by MATLAB software.

Keywords: equivalent deviatory strain, landslide, numerical modeling, topographic monitoring

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Authors: Mahdi Fakheri, Mohammad Mohsen Mahdizadeh Naeini

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This paper addresses an understudied aspect of U.S. foreign aids between the years 2000 and 2020. Despite a growing body of literature on the impacts of U.S. aids, the question about how the United States uses its foreign aids to change developing countries has remained unanswered. As foreign aid is a tool of the United States' foreign policy, answering this very question can reveal the future that the U.S. prefers for developing countries and that secures its national interest. This paper will explore USAID's official dataset, which includes the data of foreign aids to the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia from 2000 to 2020. Through an empirical analysis, this paper argues that the focus of U.S. foreign aid is evenly divided between institutional and non-institutional (i.e., slight enhancement of status quo) changes. The former is induced by training and education, funding the initiatives and projects, making capacity and increasing the efficiency of human, operational, and management sectors, and enhancing the living condition of the people. Moreover, it will be demonstrated that the political, military, cultural, economic, and judicial are some of the institutions that the U.S. has planned to change in the aforementioned period and regions.

Keywords: USAID, foreign aid, development, developing countries, Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America

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Authors: Mariela Edith Arboit

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The main goal of the project is to explore the evolution possibilities of the morphological indicators of the built environment, including those resulting from progressive soil occupation, due to the relentless growth of the city’s population and subsequent increase in building density and solar access reduction per built unit. Two alternative normative proposals, Conventional Proposal (CP) and Alternative Proposal (AP), are compared. In addition, temporal scenarios of the city’s evolution process are analyzed, starting from the reference situation of existing, high-density built-up areas, and simulating their possible morphological outcomes on theoretical medium (30 yr.) and long (60 yr.) terms, as a result of the massive implementation of either regulation in the long run. The results obtained demonstrate that the Alternative Proposal (AP) presents higher mean values of predicted solar potential expressed by the Volumetric Insolation Factor total (VIFtot) for both time periods and services. Regarding environmental aspects, the different impacts of either alternative on the urban landscape quality seem to favor the AP proposal. Its deserved detailed assessment is also presently being developed through a quanti-qualitative methodology.

Keywords: building morphology, environmental quality, solar energy, urban sustainability

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Authors: Michael Louis Sunaris, Robby Yussac Tallar

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The concept of sustainable river is evolving in Indonesia today. Many rivers condition in Indonesia have decreased by quality and quantity. The degradation of this condition is caused by rapid land use change as a result of increased population growth and human activity. It brings the degradation of the existing watersheds including some types of land use that an important factor in determining the status of river sustainability. Therefore, an evaluation method is required to determine the sustainability status of waterbody within watershed. The purpose of this study is to analyze various types of land use in determining the status of river sustainability. This study takes the watersheds of Citarum Upstream as a study area. The results of the analysis prove the index of sustainability status of the river that changes from good to bad or average in the rivers in the study area. The rapid and uncontrolled changes of land use especially in the upper watersheds area are the main causes that happened over time. It was indicated that the cumulative runoff coefficients were increased significantly. These situations indicated that the damage of watersheds has an impact on the water surplus or deficit problem yearly. Therefore, the rivers in Indonesia should be protected and conserved. The sustainability index of the rivers is an index to indicate the condition of watersheds by defining status of rivers in order to achieve sustainable water resource management.

Keywords: land use change, runoff coefficient, a simple index, sustainable river

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Authors: Sulaiman Al Amro

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There are currently considerable challenges concerning data security and privacy, particularly in relation to modern technologies. This includes the virtual world known as the Metaverse, which consists of a virtual space that integrates various technologies and is therefore susceptible to cyber threats such as malware, phishing, and identity theft. This has led recent studies to propose the development of Metaverse forensic frameworks and the integration of advanced technologies, including machine learning for intrusion detection and security. In this context, the application of first-order logic offers a formal and systematic approach to defining the conditions of cyberattacks, thereby contributing to the development of effective detection mechanisms. In addition, formalizing the rules and patterns of cyber threats has the potential to enhance the overall security posture of the Metaverse and, thus, the integrity and safety of this virtual environment. The current paper focuses on the primary actions employed by avatars for potential attacks, including Interval Temporal Logic (ITL) and behavior-based detection to detect an avatar’s abnormal activities within the Metaverse. The research established that the proposed framework attained an accuracy of 92.307%, resulting in the experimental results demonstrating the efficacy of ITL, including its superior performance in addressing the threats posed by avatars within the Metaverse domain.

Keywords: security, privacy, metaverse, cyberattacks, detection, first-order logic

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Authors: Ihsan Ullah Khan, Asim Kareem, Naveed Saif

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This research study examined the application of innovative strategies for improving writing skills of Secondary level students. It also examined the steps taken by Secondary level teachers for the improvement of writing skills of their students. Effective written communication is the problem faced by all the ESL students at secondary level. The objective of the study was to help the secondary level students to overcome this problem. More specifically, this research study aimed to guide the teachers, teaching at secondary level, to bring innovation in their teaching by showing the results of innovative strategies. In order to know about the practices of the teachers, inside the classroom, data was calculated through rating scale questionnaire. After that experimental study was carried out. For the experimental study a 10th grade class was selected. Results were drawn by analyzing the pre and post-tests of the students with the help of independent sample t-test. The results showed that a significant change occurred in the writing skills of the students, belonging to Treatment group. No improvement was observed in the writing skills of the students, belonging to Control group. Thus this research study proved to be a great contribution by guiding the teachers to bring a significant change in the writing skills of the students.

Keywords: writing skills, innovative strategies, teachers, students, treatment group, control group

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Authors: Shahin Farajifar, Azadeh Safadoust, Ali Akbar Mahboubi

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A study was conducted to evaluate hydraulic properties of a sandy loam soil and corn (Zea mays L.) crop production under a short-term tillage and manure combinations field experiment carried out in west of Iran. Treatments included composted cattle manure application rates [0, 30, and 60 Mg (dry weight) ha-1] and tillage systems [no-tillage (NT), chisel plowing (CP), and moldboard plowing (MP)] arranged in a split-plot design. Soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) and saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) were significantly affected by manure and tillage treatments. At any matric suction, the soil water content was in the order of MP>CP>NT. At all matric suctions, the amount of water retained by the soil increased as manure application rate increased (i.e. 60>30>0 Mg ha-1). Similar to the tillage effects, at high suctions the differences of water retained due to manure addition were less than that at low suctions. The change of SWCC from tillage methods and manure applications may attribute to the change of pore size and aggregate size distributions. Soil Ks was in the order of CP>MP>NT for the first two layers and in the order of MP>CP and NT for the deeper soil layer. The Ks also increased with increasing rates of manure application (i.e. 60>30>0 Mg ha-1). This was due to the increase in the total pore size and continuity.

Keywords: corn, manuure, saturated hydraulic conductivity, soil water characteristic curve, tillage

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Authors: Yuhang Wang, Jorg Schluter, Sergiy Shelyag

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The high cost associated with high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is one of the main challenges that inhibit the design, development, and optimisation of new combustion systems adapted for renewable fuels. In this study, we propose a physics-guided CNN-based model to predict turbulence evolution and mixing without requiring a traditional CFD solver. The model architecture is built upon U-Net and the inception module, while a physics-guided loss function is designed by introducing two additional physical constraints to allow for the conservation of both mass and pressure over the entire predicted flow fields. Then, the model is trained on the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) results of a natural turbulent mixing layer with two different Reynolds number cases (Re = 3000 and 30000). As a result, the model prediction shows an excellent agreement with the corresponding CFD solutions in terms of both spatial distributions and temporal evolution of turbulent mixing. Such promising model prediction performance opens up the possibilities of doing accurate high-resolution manifold-based combustion simulations at a low computational cost for accelerating the iterative design process of new combustion systems.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, turbulence, machine learning, combustion modelling

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Authors: Angela Evans, Gabriel Gijon-Nogueron, Alfonso Martinez-Nova

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Background The health sector, whose mission is protecting health, also contributes to the climate crisis, the greatest health threat of the 21st century. The carbon footprint from healthcare exceeds 5% of emissions globally, surpassing 7% in the USA and Australia. Global recognition has led to the Paris Agreement, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, and the World Health Organization's Climate Change Action Plan. It is agreed that the majority of health impacts stem from energy and resource consumption, as well as the production of greenhouse gases in the environment and deforestation. Many professional medical associations and healthcare providers advocate for their members to take the lead in environmental sustainability. Objectives To avail and expand ‘Green Podiatry’ via the three pillars of: Exercise ; Evidence ; Everyday changes; to highlight the benefits of physical activity and exercise for both human health and planet health. Walking and running are beneficial for health, provide low carbon transport, and have evidence-based health benefits. Podiatrists are key healthcare professionals in the physical activity space and can influence and guide their patients to increase physical activity and avert the many non-communicable diseases that are decimating public health, eg diabetes, arthritis, depression, cancer, obesity. Methods Publications, conference presentations, and pilot projects pertinent to ‘Green Podiatry’ have been activated since 2021, and a survey of podiatrist’s knowledge and awareness has been undertaken.The survey assessed attitudes towards environmental sustainability in work environment. The questions addressed commuting habits, hours of physical exercise per week, and attitudes in the clinic, such as prescribing unnecessary treatments or emphasizing sports as primary treatment. Results Teaching and Learning modules have been developed for podiatric medicine students and graduates globally. These will be availed. A pilot foot orthoses recycling project has been undertaken and will be reported, in addition to established footwear recycling. The preliminary survey found almost 90% of respondents had no knowledge of green podiatry or footwear recycling. Only 30% prescribe sports/exercise as the primary treatment for patients, and 45% do not to prescribe unnecessary treatments. Conclusions Podiatrists are in a good position to lead in the crucial area of healthcare and climate change implications. Sufficient education of podiatrists is essential for the profession to beneficially promote health and physical activity, which is beneficial for the health of all peoples and all communities.

Keywords: climate change, gait, green, healthcare, sustainability

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Authors: Nowshin Nabila Siddique, S. M. Mustafizur Rahman

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There is evidence of cyclonic events in Bay of Bengal (BoB) throughout the year. These cyclones cause a variety of fluctuations along its track including the is the influence in Chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration. The main purpose of this paper is to justify this variation pattern. Six Tropical Cyclones (TC) are studied using observational method. The result suggests that there is a noticeable change in productivity after a cyclone passes, when the pre cyclonic and post cyclonic condition is observed. In case of Cyclone Amphan, it shows 1.79 mg/m3 of chlorophyll-a concentration increase after a week of cyclonic occurrence. This change is affected by several attributes such as translation speed, intensity and Ocean Pre-condition, specifically Mixed Layer Depth (MLD). Translation Speed and MLD shows a strong negative correlation with the induced chlorophyll concentration. Whereas the effect of the intensity on a cyclone is not that prominent. It is also found that the period of starting an induction is not same for all cyclone such as in case of Cyclone Amphan, the changes started to occur after one day however for Cyclone Sidr and Cyclone Mora it started after three days. Furthermore, a slightly increase in overall productivity is also observed after a cyclone. In the case of Cyclone Amphan, Hudhud, Phailin it shows a rise up to 0.12 mg/m3 in productivity which decreases gradually taking around the period of two months. On a whole this paper signifies the changes in chlorophyll concentration caused by numerous cyclones and its different characteristics that regulates these changes.

Keywords: tropical cyclone, chlorophyll-a concentration, mixed layer depth, translation speed

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Authors: Vikrant Sinha, Himanshu Singh, Nitish Kumar Singh, Sujal Nag

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This research creates an urgent and complex challenge for marine ecosystems. Microplastics were primarily found on land, but now they are pervasive in marine environments as well, affecting a wide range of marine species, from zooplankton to larger mammals that live in those environments. These pollutants interfere with major biological processes like feeding and reproduction, causing disruption throughout the food web as microplastics are getting accumulated at different tropic levels. Meanwhile, climatic changes made these effects more accelerated, and the concentration of microplastics due to these occurrences is increasing day by day. Rising temperatures, melting ice, increased runoff due to rainfall, and shifting wind patterns are transforming marine life in a way that intensifies the burden on marine life. This dual stress is particularly present in fragile ecosystems of marine life, such as coral reefs and mangroves. Addressing this twisted crisis requires not only efforts to restrain plastic pollution but also adapts strategies for climate mitigation. This research emphasizes the critical need to combine approaches to save marine biodiversity and withstand the rapid changes in the environment.

Keywords: microplastic pollution, climate change impacts, marine ecosystems, biodiversity threats, zooplankton ingestion, trophic accumulation, coral reef degradation, ecosystem resilience, plastic pollution mitigation, climate adaptation strategies, SST, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Hans-Peter Piepho

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We aim to model dynamics of wildlife or pastoral livestock population for understanding of their population change and hence for wildlife conservation and promoting human welfare. The study is motivated by an age-sex structured population counts in different regions of Serengeti-Mara during the period 1989-2003. Developing reliable and realistic models for population dynamics of large herbivore population can be a very complex and challenging exercise. However, the Bayesian statistical domain offers some flexible computational methods that enable the development and efficient implementation of complex population dynamics models. In this work, we have used a novel Bayesian state-space model to analyse the dynamics of topi and hartebeest populations in the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem of East Africa. The state-space model involves survival probabilities of the animals which further depend on various factors like monthly rainfall, size of habitat, etc. that cause recent declines in numbers of the herbivore populations and potentially threaten their future population viability in the ecosystem. Our study shows that seasonal rainfall is the most important factors shaping the population size of animals and indicates the age-class which most severely affected by any change in weather conditions.

Keywords: bayesian state-space model, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, population dynamics, conservation

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Alejandro Dinkelberg, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics models use an agent-based modeling approach to model people’s opinions. Model's properties are usually explored by testing the two 'degrees of freedom': the interaction rule and the network topology. The latter defines the connection, and thus the possible interaction, among agents. The interaction rule, instead, determines how agents select each other and update their own opinion. Here we show the existence of the third degree of freedom. This can be used for turning one model into each other or to change the model’s output up to 100% of its initial value. Opinion dynamics models represent the evolution of real-world opinions parsimoniously. Thus, it is fundamental to know how real-world opinion (e.g., supporting a candidate) could be turned into a number. Specifically, we want to know if, by choosing a different opinion-to-number transformation, the model’s dynamics would be preserved. This transformation is typically not addressed in opinion dynamics literature. However, it has already been studied in psychometrics, a branch of psychology. In this field, real-world opinions are converted into numbers using abstract objects called 'scales.' These scales can be converted one into the other, in the same way as we convert meters to feet. Thus, in our work, we analyze how this scale transformation may affect opinion dynamics models. We perform our analysis both using mathematical modeling and validating it via agent-based simulations. To distinguish between scale transformation and measurement error, we first analyze the case of perfect scales (i.e., no error or noise). Here we show that a scale transformation may change the model’s dynamics up to a qualitative level. Meaning that a researcher may reach a totally different conclusion, even using the same dataset just by slightly changing the way data are pre-processed. Indeed, we quantify that this effect may alter the model’s output by 100%. By using two models from the standard literature, we show that a scale transformation can transform one model into the other. This transformation is exact, and it holds for every result. Lastly, we also test the case of using real-world data (i.e., finite precision). We perform this test using a 7-points Likert scale, showing how even a small scale change may result in different predictions or a number of opinion clusters. Because of this, we think that scale transformation should be considered as a third-degree of freedom for opinion dynamics. Indeed, its properties have a strong impact both on theoretical models and for their application to real-world data.

Keywords: degrees of freedom, empirical validation, opinion scale, opinion dynamics

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Authors: W. G. Kim, C. H. Jo

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We analyzed the effects of variations in the diameter of silicone rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) tubings on the likelihood of tubing rupture during modeling of accidental arterial line clamping in cardiopulmonary bypass with a roller pump. A closed CPB circuit constructed with a roller pump was tested with both PVC and silicone rubber tubings of 1/2, 3/8, and 1/4 inch internal diameter. Arterial line pressure was monitored, and an occlusive clamp was placed across the tubing distal to the pressure monitor site to model an accidental arterial line occlusion. A CCD camera with 512(H) x 492(V) pixels was installed above the roller pump to measure tubing diameters at pump outlet, where the maximum deformations (distension) of the tubings occurred. Quantitative measurement of the changes of tubing diameters with the change of arterial line pressure was performed using computerized image processing techniques. A visible change of tubing diameter was generally noticeable by around 250 psi of arterial line pressure, which was already very high. By 1500 psi, the PVC tubings showed an increase of diameter of between 5-10 %, while the silicone rubber tubings showed an increase between 20-25 %. Silicone rubber tubings of all sizes showed greater distensibility than PVC tubings of equivalent size. In conclusion, although roller-pump induced tubing rupture remains a theoretical problem during cardiopulmonary bypass in terms of the inherent mechanism of the pump, in reality such an occurrence is impossible in real clinical conditions.

Keywords: roller pump, tubing rupture, cardiopulmonary bypass, arterial line

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Authors: Katerina Krizova, Inigo Molina

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The ongoing climate change affects various natural processes resulting in significant changes in human life. Since there is still a growing human population on the planet with more or less limited resources, agricultural production became an issue and a satisfactory amount of food has to be reassured. To achieve this, agriculture is being studied in a very wide context. The main aim here is to increase primary production on a spatial unit while consuming as low amounts of resources as possible. In Europe, nowadays, the staple issue comes from significantly changing the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. Recent growing seasons have been considerably affected by long drought periods that have led to quantitative as well as qualitative yield losses. To cope with such kind of conditions, new techniques and technologies are being implemented in current practices. However, behind assessing the right management, there is always a set of the necessary information about plot properties that need to be acquired. Remotely sensed data had gained attention in recent decades since they provide spatial information about the studied surface based on its spectral behavior. A number of space platforms have been launched carrying various types of sensors. Spectral indices based on calculations with reflectance in visible and NIR bands are nowadays quite commonly used to describe the crop status. However, there is still the staple limit by this kind of data - cloudiness. Relatively frequent revisit of modern satellites cannot be fully utilized since the information is hidden under the clouds. Therefore, microwave remote sensing, which can penetrate the atmosphere, is on its rise today. The scientific literature describes the potential of radar data to estimate staple soil (roughness, moisture) and vegetation (LAI, biomass, height) properties. Although all of these are highly demanded in terms of agricultural monitoring, the crop moisture content is the utmost important parameter in terms of agricultural drought monitoring. The idea behind this study was to exploit the unique combination of SAR (Sentinel-1) and optical (Sentinel-2) data from one provider (ESA) to describe potential crop water stress during dry cropping season of 2019 at six winter wheat plots in the central Czech Republic. For the period of January to August, Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images were obtained and processed. Sentinel-1 imagery carries information about C-band backscatter in two polarisations (VV, VH). Sentinel-2 was used to derive vegetation properties (LAI, FCV, NDWI, and SAVI) as support for Sentinel-1 results. For each term and plot, summary statistics were performed, including precipitation data and soil moisture content obtained through data loggers. Results were presented as summary layouts of VV and VH polarisations and related plots describing other properties. All plots performed along with the principle of the basic SAR backscatter equation. Considering the needs of practical applications, the vegetation moisture content may be assessed using SAR data to predict the drought impact on the final product quality and yields independently of cloud cover over the studied scene.

Keywords: precision agriculture, remote sensing, Sentinel-1, SAR, water content

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Authors: John Wangui, Charles Gachene, Stephen Mureithi, Boniface Kiteme

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Land use changes caused by demographic, natural variability, economic, technological and policy factors affect the goods and services derived from an ecosystem. In the past few decades, Lake Ol Bolossat catchment in Nyandarua County Kenya has been facing challenges of land cover changes threatening its capacity to perform ecosystems functions and adversely affecting communities and ecosystems downstream. This study assessed land cover changes in the catchment for a period of twenty eight years (from 1986 to 2014). Analysis of three Landsat images i.e. L5 TM 1986, L5 TM 1995 and L8 OLI/TIRS 2014 was done using ERDAS 9.2 software. The results show that dense forest, cropland and area under water increased by 27%, 29% and 3% respectively. On the other hand, open forest, dense grassland, open grassland, bushland and shrubland decreased by 3%, 3%, 11%, 26% and 1% respectively during the period under assessment. The lake was noted to have increased due to siltation caused by soil erosion causing a reduction in Lake’s depth and consequently causing temporary flooding of the wetland. The study concludes that the catchment is under high demographic pressure which would lead to resource use conflicts and therefore formulation of mitigation measures is highly recommended.

Keywords: land cover, land use change, land degradation, Nyandarua, Remote sensing

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Authors: Amanda Cristina da Silva Reis, Bruno Paulino Venâncio, Cristina Theada Ferreira, Andrea Fialho do Prado, Lucimara Guedes dos Santos, Aline de Souza Gravatá, Larissa Lima Gonçalves, Isabella Aparecida Ferreira Moretto, João Carlos Ferrari Corrêa, Fernanda Ishida Corrêa

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Objective: To compare two protocols of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) on quadriceps muscle spasticity in individuals diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Method: Clinical, crossover study, in which six adult individuals diagnosed with MS and spasticity in the lower limbs were randomized to receive one session of high-frequency (≥5Hz) and low-frequency (≤ 1Hz) TMS on motor cortex (M1) hotspot for quadriceps muscle, with a one-week interval between the sessions. To assess the spasticity was applied the Ashworth scale and were analyzed the latency time (ms) of the motor evoked potential (MEP) and the central motor conduction time (CMCT) of the bilateral quadriceps muscle. Assessments were performed before and after each intervention. The difference between groups was analyzed using the Friedman test, with a significance level of 0.05 adopted. Results: All statistical analyzes were performed using the SPSS Statistic version 26 programs, with a significance level established for the analyzes at p<0.05. Shapiro Wilk normality test. Parametric data were represented as mean and standard deviation for non-parametric variables, median and interquartile range, and frequency and percentage for categorical variables. There was no clinical change in quadriceps spasticity assessed using the Ashworth scale for the 1 Hz (p=0.813) and 5 Hz (p= 0.232) protocols for both limbs. Motor Evoked Potential latency time: in the 5hz protocol, there was no significant change for the contralateral side from pre to post-treatment (p>0.05), and for the ipsilateral side, there was a decrease in latency time of 0.07 seconds (p<0.05 ); for the 1Hz protocol there was an increase of 0.04 seconds in the latency time (p<0.05) for the contralateral side to the stimulus, and for the ipsilateral side there was a decrease in the latency time of 0.04 seconds (p=<0.05), with a significant difference between the contralateral (p=0.007) and ipsilateral (p=0.014) groups. Central motor conduction time in the 1Hz protocol, there was no change for the contralateral side (p>0.05) and for the ipsilateral side (p>0.05). In the 5Hz protocol for the contralateral side, there was a small decrease in latency time (p<0.05) and for the ipsilateral side, there was a decrease of 0.6 seconds in the latency time (p<0.05) with a significant difference between groups (p=0.019). Conclusion: A high or low-frequency session does not change spasticity, but it is observed that when the low-frequency protocol was performed, there was an increase in latency time on the stimulated side, and a decrease in latency time on the non-stimulated side, considering then that inhibiting the motor cortex increases cortical excitability on the opposite side.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, spasticity, motor evoked potential, transcranial magnetic stimulation

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Authors: Jörg Lenhardt, Wolfram Schiffmann, Jörg Keller

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While the feature sizes of recent Complementary Metal Oxid Semiconductor (CMOS) devices decrease the influence of static power prevails their energy consumption. Thus, power savings that benefit from Dynamic Frequency and Voltage Scaling (DVFS) are diminishing and temporal shutdown of cores or other microchip components become more worthwhile. A consequence of powering off unused parts of a chip is that the relative difference between idle and fully loaded power consumption is increased. That means, future chips and whole server systems gain more power saving potential through power-aware load balancing, whereas in former times this power saving approach had only limited effect, and thus, was not widely adopted. While powering off complete servers was used to save energy, it will be superfluous in many cases when cores can be powered down. An important advantage that comes with that is a largely reduced time to respond to increased computational demand. We include the above developments in a server power model and quantify the advantage. Our conclusion is that strategies from datacenters when to power off server systems might be used in the future on core level, while load balancing mechanisms previously used at core level might be used in the future at server level.

Keywords: power efficiency, static power consumption, dynamic power consumption, CMOS

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Authors: Jeffrey Chang, Barun Dasgupta

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E-business technologies, whereby business transactions are conducted remotely using the Internet, present unique opportunities and challenges for business. E-business technologies are applicable to a wide range of organizations and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are no exception. There is an established body of literature about e-business, looking at definitions, concepts, benefits and challenges. In general, however, the research focus has been on larger organizations, not SMEs. In an attempt to redress the balance of research, this paper looks at e-business technologies specifically from a small business perspective. It seeks to identify the possible barriers that SMEs might face when considering adoption of the e-business concept and practice as part of their business process change initiatives and implementation. To facilitate analysis of these barriers a conceptual framework has been developed which outlines the key conceptual and practical challenges of e-business implementation in SMEs. This is developed following a literature survey comprised of three categories: characteristics of SMEs, issues of IS/IT use in SMEs and general e-business adoption and implementation issues. The framework is then empirically assessed against 7 SMEs who have yet to implement e-business or whose e-business efforts have been unsatisfactory. Conclusions from the case studies can be used to verify the framework, and set parameters for further larger scale empirical investigation.

Keywords: business process change, disruptive technologies, electronic business (e-Business), electronic commerce (e-Commerce), ICT adoption, small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs)

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Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

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Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

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Authors: S. Ngcinela, A. Mushunje, A. Taruvinga, C. S. Mutengwa, T. S. Masehela

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There is high demand and competing needs when it comes to land use practices. Several factors contribute to this trend, for example, the ever-increasing human population, the need to produce more food than before, and the expansion of industrial and agricultural areas. This paper, focused on the cultivation patterns, land use change over time, of maize and soybean (i.e. both genetically modified and non-genetically modified) in two South African provinces to establish their land cover changes over time. From a global context, genetically modified crops have been advocated by some to be saving land – due to more yield over small cultivation area(s); while other argue and even criticise their cultivation as they take up more land, replace other crops or are the expense of natural (pristine) vegetation. The study quantified and mapped land used for the cultivation of maize and soybean from 2006 to 2017 in Free State and North West provinces, using ArcGIS. The results show both provinces to have minimal expansion or change in cultivation area for both maize and soybean between 2006 and 2017. The results further indicate that both maize and soybean cultivation areas in these provinces, did not expand beyond the current agricultural areas (space), and did not encroach onto new land areas. This suggests that both maize and soybean, do not currently pose a threat to the surrounding landscape and are not in direct coemption with other neighboring land use practices.

Keywords: agriculture, crops, cultivation, genetically modified, land use, maize, soybean

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Authors: Kazi Md. Shifun Newaz, S. Miaji, Shahnewaz Hazanat-E-Rabbi

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In this study, the kernel density estimation tool has been used to identify most crash prone locations in a national highway of Bangladesh. Like other developing countries, in Bangladesh road traffic crashes (RTC) have now become a great social alarm and the situation is deteriorating day by day. Today’s black spot identification process is not based on modern technical tools and most of the cases provide wrong output. In this situation, characteristic analysis and black spot identification by spatial analysis would be an effective and low cost approach in ensuring road safety. The methodology of this study incorporates a framework on the basis of spatial-temporal study to identify most RTC occurrence locations. In this study, a very important and economic corridor like Dhaka to Sylhet highway has been chosen to apply the method. This research proposes that KDE method for identification of Hazardous Road Location (HRL) could be used for all other National highways in Bangladesh and also for other developing countries. Some recommendations have been suggested for policy maker to reduce RTC in Dhaka-Sylhet especially in black spots.

Keywords: hazardous road location (HRL), crash, GIS, kernel density

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Authors: Neslinur Hizli, Berrak Kirbaş Akyürek

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Beşiktaş, one of the historical coastal district of İstanbul, is on the very edge of the radical transformation because of an approaching ‘Beşiktaş Public Square Project’. At this juncture, due its location, presence on the coast, population density and distance to the other centers of the city, the decisions to be taken are critical to whole Istanbul that will be majorly affected from this transformation. As the new project aims to pedestrianize the area by placing the vehicular traffic under the ground, Beşiktaş and its square will change from top to bottom. Among those considerations, through the advantages and disadvantages the perception of the existing conditions of the Beşiktaş play significant role. The motive of this paper is the lack of determination and clarity on the cognition of the Square. After brief analysis on the historical transformation of the area, prominent studies on the criteria of public square are revised. Through cognitive mapping methodology, characteristics of the Square and the public space in general find a place to discuss from individual views. This study aims to discuss and review Beşiktaş Public Square from perspective, mind and behavior of the users. Cognitive map study with thirty subjects (30) is evaluated and categorized upon the five elements that Kevin Lynch defined as the images of the city. The results obtained digitized and represented with tables and graphs. Findings of the research underline the crucial issues on the approaching change in Beşiktaş. Thus, this study may help to develop comprehensive ideas and new suggestions on the Square.

Keywords: Beşiktaş public square, cognitive map, perception, public space

Procedia PDF Downloads 267