Search results for: probability of return

Authors: Asowata Osamede

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Optimized gain in respect to output power of stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) systems is one of the major focus of PV in recent times. This is evident to its low carbon emission and efficiency. Power failure or outage from commercial providers in general does not promote development to the public and private sector, these basically limit the development of industries. The need for a well-structured PV system is of importance for an efficient and cost-effective monitoring system. The purpose of this paper is to validate the maximum power point of an off-grid PV system taking into consideration the most effective tilt and orientation angles for PV's in the southern hemisphere. This paper is based on analyzing the system using a solar charger with MPPT from a pulse width modulation (PWM) perspective. The power conditioning device chosen is a solar charger with MPPT. The practical setup consists of a PV panel that is set to an orientation angle of 0o north, with a corresponding tilt angle of 36 o, 26o and 16o. The load employed in this set-up are three Lead Acid Batteries (LAB). The percentage fully charged, charging and not charging conditions are observed for all three batteries. The results obtained in this research is used to draw the conclusion that would provide a benchmark for researchers and scientist worldwide. This is done so as to have an idea of the best tilt and orientation angles for maximum power point in a basic off-grid PV system. A quantitative analysis would be employed in this research. Quantitative research tends to focus on measurement and proof. Inferential statistics are frequently used to generalize what is found about the study sample to the population as a whole. This would involve: selecting and defining the research question, deciding on a study type, deciding on the data collection tools, selecting the sample and its size, analyzing, interpreting and validating findings Preliminary results which include regression analysis (normal probability plot and residual plot using polynomial 6) showed the maximum power point in the system. The best tilt angle for maximum power point tracking proves that the 36o tilt angle provided the best average on time which in turns put the system into a pulse width modulation stage.

Keywords: power-conversion, meteonorm, PV panels, DC-DC converters

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Valdir Moura, Raniele dos Anjos de Souza, Fernando Gomes de Souza, Jose Vagner da Silva, Jerry Adriani Johann

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The estimate of the Area of Land to be planted with annual crops and its stratification by the municipality are important variables in crop forecast. Nowadays in Brazil, these information’s are obtained by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and published under the report Assessment of the Agricultural Production. Due to the high cloud cover in the main crop growing season (October to March) it is difficult to acquire good orbital images. Thus, one alternative is to work with remote sensing data from dates before the crop growing season. This work presents the use of multitemporal Landsat data gathered on July and September (before the summer growing season) in order to estimate the area of land to be planted with summer crops in an area of São Paulo State, Brazil. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital image processing techniques were applied for the treatment of the available data. Supervised and non-supervised classifications were used for data in digital number and reflectance formats and the multitemporal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images. The objective was to discriminate the tracts with higher probability to become planted with summer crops. Classification accuracies were evaluated using a sampling system developed basically for this study region. The estimated areas were corrected using the error matrix derived from these evaluations. The classification techniques presented an excellent level according to the kappa index. The proportion of crops stratified by municipalities was derived by a field work during the crop growing season. These proportion coefficients were applied onto the area of land to be planted with summer crops (derived from Landsat data). Thus, it was possible to derive the area of each summer crop by the municipality. The discrepancies between official statistics and our results were attributed to the sampling and the stratification procedures. Nevertheless, this methodology can be improved in order to provide good crop area estimates using remote sensing data, despite the cloud cover during the growing season.

Keywords: area intended for summer culture, estimated area planted, agriculture, Landsat, planting schedule

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Jakob Krause

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Past Financial Crisis has shown that contemporary risk management models provide an unjustified sense of security and fail miserably in situations in which they are needed the most. In this paper, we start from the assumption that risk is a notion that changes over time and therefore past data points only have limited explanatory power for the current situation. Our objective is to derive the optimal amount of representative information by optimizing between the two adverse forces of estimator convergence, incentivizing us to use as much data as possible, and the aforementioned non-representativeness doing the opposite. In this endeavor, the cornerstone assumption of having access to identically distributed random variables is weakened and substituted by the assumption that the law of the data generating process changes over time. Hence, in this paper, we give a quantitative theory on how to perform statistical analysis in non-ergodic systems. As an application, we discuss the impact of a paragraph in the last iteration of proposals by the Basel Committee on Banking Regulation. We start from the premise that the severity of assumptions should correspond to the robustness of the system they describe. Hence, in the formal description of physical systems, the level of assumptions can be much higher. It follows that every concept that is carried over from the natural sciences to economics must be checked for its plausibility in the new surroundings. Most of the probability theory has been developed for the analysis of physical systems and is based on the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption. In Economics both parts of the i.i.d. assumption are inappropriate. However, only dependence has, so far, been weakened to a sufficient degree. In this paper, an appropriate class of non-stationary processes is used, and their law is tied to a formal object measuring representativeness. Subsequently, that data set is identified that on average minimizes the estimation error stemming from both, insufficient and non-representative, data. Applications are far reaching in a variety of fields. In the paper itself, we apply the results in order to analyze a paragraph in the Basel 3 framework on banking regulation with severe implications on financial stability. Beyond the realm of finance, other potential applications include the reproducibility crisis in the social sciences (but not in the natural sciences) and modeling limited understanding and learning behavior in economics.

Keywords: banking regulation, non-ergodicity, risk management, semimartingale modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Pikria Vardosanidze

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The term Apokatástasis (Greek: Apokatástasis) is Greek and means "re-establishment", the universal resurrection. The term dates back to ancient times, in Stoic thought denoting the end of a constantly evolving cycle of the universe and the beginning of a new beginning, established in Christendom by the Eastern Fathers and Origen as the return of the entire created world to a state of goodness. "Universal resurrection" means the resurrection of mankind after the second coming of Jesus Christ. The first thing the Savior will do immediately upon His glorious coming will be that "the dead will be raised up first by Christ." God's animal action will apply to all the dead, but not with the same result. The action of God also applies to the living, which is accomplished by changing their bodies. The degree of glorification of the resurrected body will be commensurate with the spiritual life. An unclean body will not be glorified, and the soul will not be happy. He, as a resurrected body, will be unbelieving, strong, and spiritual, but because of the action of the passions, all this will only bring suffering to the body. The court judges both the soul and the flesh. At the same time, St. The letter nowhere says that at the last 4trial, someone will be able to change their own position. In connection with this dogmatic teaching, one of the greatest fathers of the Church, Sts. Gregory Nossell had a different view. He points out that the miracle of the resurrection is so glorious and sublime that it exceeds our faith. There are two important circumstances: one is the reality of the resurrection itself, and the other is the face of its fulfillment. The first is founded by Gregory Nossell on the Uado authority, Sts. In the letter: Jesus Christ preached about the resurrection of Christ and also foretold many other events, all of which were later fulfilled. Gregory Nossell clarifies the issues of the substantiality of good and evil and the relationship between them and notes that only good has an inherent dependence on nothing because it originated from nothing and exists eternally in God. As for evil, it has no self-sustaining substance and, therefore, no existence. It appears only through the free will of man from time to time. As St., The Father says that God is the supreme goodness that gives beings the power to exist in existence , all others who are without Him are non-existent. St. The above-mentioned opinion of the father about the universal apocatastasis comes from the thought of Origen. This teaching was introduced by the resolution of the Fifth World Ecclesiastical Assembly. Finally, it was unanimously stated by ecclesiastical figures that the doctrine of universal salvation is not valid. For if the resurrection takes place in this way, that is, all beings, including the evil spirit, are resurrected, then the worldly controversy between good and evil, the future common denominator, the eternal torment - all that Christian dogma acknowledges.

Keywords: apolatastasisi ortodox, orthodox doctrine, gregogory of nusse, eschatology

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Venkat Kamavaram, Ravi Pare

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Modern warfighters experience extreme environmental conditions in many of their operational and training activities. In temperatures exceeding 95°F, the body’s temperature regulation can no longer cool through convection and radiation. In this case, the only cooling mechanism is evaporation. However, evaporative cooling is often compromised by excessive humidity. Natural cooling mechanisms can be further compromised by clothing and protective gear, which trap hot air and moisture close to the body. Creating an efficient heat extraction apparel system that is also lightweight without hindering dexterity or mobility of personnel working in extreme temperatures is a difficult technical challenge and one that needs to be addressed to increase the probability for the future success of the US military. To address this challenge, Oceanit Laboratories, Inc. has developed and patented a Liquid Cooled Garment (LCG) more effective than any on the market today. Oceanit’s LCG is a form-fitting garment with a network of thermally conductive tubes that extracts body heat and can be worn under all authorized and chemical/biological protective clothing. Oceanit specifically designed and developed ThermoCore®, a thermally conductive polymer, for use in this apparel, optimizing the product for thermal conductivity, mechanical properties, manufacturability, and performance temperatures. Thermal Manikin tests were conducted in accordance with the ASTM test method, ASTM F2371, Standard Test Method for Measuring the Heat Removal Rate of Personal Cooling Systems Using a Sweating Heated Manikin, in an environmental chamber using a 20-zone sweating thermal manikin. Manikin test results have shown that Oceanit’s LCG provides significantly higher heat extraction under the same environmental conditions than the currently fielded Environmental Control Vest (ECV) while at the same time reducing the weight. Oceanit’s LCG vests performed nearly 30% better in extracting body heat while weighing 15% less than the ECV. There are NO cooling garments in the market that provide the same thermal extraction performance, form-factor, and reduced weight as Oceanit’s LCG. The two cooling garments that are commercially available and most commonly used are the Environmental Control Vest (ECV) and the Microclimate Cooling Garment (MCG).

Keywords: thermally conductive composite, tubing, garment design, form fitting vest, thermocore

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Keith Schofield, Leigh Morland

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Storytelling is an established means of leadership and management development and is also considered a form of leadership of self and others in its own right. This study focuses on the utility of storytelling in the development of management narratives in an MBA programme; sources include programme participants as well as international recruiters, whose voices are often only heard in terms of economic contribution and globalisation. For many MBA candidates, the return to study requires the development of a new identity which complements their professional identity; each candidate has their own journey and expectations, the use of story can enable candidates to explore their aspirations and assumptions and give voice to previously unspoken ideas. For international recruitment, the story of market development and change must be captured if MBAs are to remain fit for purpose. If used effectively, story acts as a form of critical reflection that can inform the learning journeys of individuals, emerging identities as well as the ongoing design and development of programmes. The landscape of management education is shifting; the MBA begins to attract a different kind of candidate, some are younger than before, others are seeking validation for their existing work practices, yet more are entrepreneurial and wish to capitalise on an institutional experience to further their career. There is a shift in context, creating uncertainty and ambiguity for programme managers and recruiters, thus requiring institutions to create a new MBA narrative. This study utilises Lego SeriousPlay as the means to engaging programme participants and international agents in telling the story of their MBA. We asked MBA participants to tell the story of their leadership and management aspirations and compare these to stories of their development journeys, allowing for critical reflection of their respective development gaps. We asked international recruiters, who act as university agents and promote courses in the student’s country of origin, to explore their mental models of MBA candidates and their learning agenda. The purpose of this process was to explore the agent’s perception of the MBA programme and to articulate the student journey from a recruitment perspective. The paper’s unique contribution is in combining these stories in order to explore the assumptions that determine programme design. Data drawn from reflective statements together with images of Lego ‘builds’ created the opportunity for reflection between the mental models of these groups. Findings will inform the design of the MBA journey and experience; we review the extent to which the changing identities of learners are congruent with programme design. Data from international recruiters also determines the extent to which marketing and recruitment strategies identify with would be candidates.

Keywords: critical reflection, programme management, recruitment, storytelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 221

Authors: Mingming Leng

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Wal-Mart has allocated considerable human resources for its quality assurance program, in which the largest retailer serves its supply chains as a quality gatekeeper. Asda Stores Ltd., the second largest supermarket chain in Britain, is now investing £27m in significantly increasing the frequency of quality control checks in its supply chains and thus enhancing quality across its fresh food business. Moreover, Tesco, the largest British supermarket chain, already constructed a quality assessment center to carry out its gatekeeping responsibility. Motivated by the above practices, we consider a supply chain in which a retailer plays the gatekeeping role in quality assurance by identifying defects among a manufacturer's products prior to selling them to consumers. The impact of a retailer's gatekeeping activity on pricing and quality assurance in a supply chain has not been investigated in the operations management area. We draw a number of managerial insights that are expected to help practitioners judiciously consider the quality gatekeeping effort at the retail level. As in practice, when the retailer identifies a defective product, she immediately returns it to the manufacturer, who then replaces the defect with a good quality product and pays a penalty to the retailer. If the retailer does not recognize a defect but sells it to a consumer, then the consumer will identify the defect and return it to the retailer, who then passes the returned 'unidentified' defect to the manufacturer. The manufacturer also incurs a penalty cost. Accordingly, we analyze a two-stage pricing and quality decision problem, in which the manufacturer and the retailer bargain over the manufacturer's average defective rate and wholesale price at the first stage, and the retailer decides on her optimal retail price and gatekeeping intensity at the second stage. We also compare the results when the retailer performs quality gatekeeping with those when the retailer does not. Our supply chain analysis exposes some important managerial insights. For example, the retailer's quality gatekeeping can effectively reduce the channel-wide defective rate, if her penalty charge for each identified de-fect is larger than or equal to the market penalty for each unidentified defect. When the retailer imple-ments quality gatekeeping, the change in the negotiated wholesale price only depends on the manufac-turer's 'individual' benefit, and the change in the retailer's optimal retail price is only related to the channel-wide benefit. The retailer is willing to take on the quality gatekeeping responsibility, when the impact of quality relative to retail price on demand is high and/or the retailer has a strong bargaining power. We conclude that the retailer's quality gatekeeping can help reduce the defective rate for consumers, which becomes more significant when the retailer's bargaining position in her supply chain is stronger. Retailers with stronger bargaining powers can benefit more from their quality gatekeeping in supply chains.

Keywords: bargaining, game theory, pricing, quality, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Stephens Oluyemi Adetunji, Nel Norma Margaret, Naidu Narainsamy

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Empathy has been identified by researchers to be a crucial factor in helping adolescents to refrain from delinquent behavior. Adolescent delinquent behavior is a social problem that has become a source of concern to parents, psychologists, educators, correctional services, researchers as well as governments of nations. Empathy is a social skill that enables an individual to understand and to share another’s emotional state. An individual with a high level of empathy will avoid any act or behavior that will affect another person negatively. The need for this study is predicated on the fact that delinquent adolescent behavior could lead to adult criminality. This, in the long run, has the potential of resulting in an increase in crime rate thereby threatening public safety. It has therefore become imperative to explore the level of empathy of delinquent adolescents who have committed crime and are awaiting trial. It is the conjecture of this study that knowledge of the empathy level of delinquent adolescents will provide an opportunity to design an intervention strategy to remediate the deficit. This study was therefore designed to determine the level of empathy of delinquent adolescents. In addition, this study provides a better understanding of factors that may prevent adolescents from developing delinquent behavior, in this case, delinquents’ empathy levels. In the case of participants who have a low level of empathy, remediation strategies to improve their empathy level would be designed. Two research questions were raised to guide this study. A mixed methods research design was employed for the study. The sample consists of fifteen male adolescents who are between 13-18 years old with a mean age of 16.5 years old. The participants are adolescents who are awaiting trial. The non-probability sampling technique was used to obtain the sample for the quantitative study while purposive sampling was used in the case of the qualitative study. A self–report questionnaire and structured interview were used to assess the level of empathy of participants. The data obtained was analysed using the simple percentages for the quantitative data and transcribing the qualitative data. The result indicates that most of the participants have low level of empathy. It is also revealed that there is a difference in the empathy level on the basis of whether they are from parents living together and those whose parents are separated. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that the level of empathy of participants be improved through training and emphasizing the importance of stimulating family environment for children. It is also recommended that programs such as youth mentoring and youth sheltering be established by the government of South Africa to address the menace of delinquent adolescents.

Keywords: adolescents, behavior, delinquents, empathy

Procedia PDF Downloads 458

Authors: Tao Zhang

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Job stress appears nearly everywhere especially in the hospitality industry because employees in this industry usually have to work long time and try to meet conflicting demands of their customers, managers, and company. To reduce job stress, employees of casino hotels try to perform leisure activities or tourism. However, casino employees often meet many obstacles or constraints when they plan to travel. Until now, there is little understanding as to why casino hotel employees often face many travel constraints or leisure barriers. What is more, few studies explore the relationship between travel constraints and job stress of casino employees. Therefore, this study is to explore the construct of casino hotel employees' travel constraints and the relationship among job stress, travel constraints, and job satisfaction. Using convenient sampling method, this study planned to investigate 500 front line employees and managers of ten casino hotels in Macau. A total of 500 questionnaires were distributed, and 414 valid questionnaires were received. The return rate of valid questionnaires is 82.8%. Several statistical techniques such as factor analysis, t-test, one-way ANOVA, and regression analysis were applied to analyze the collected data. The findings of this study are as follows. Firstly, by using factor analysis, this study found the travel constraints of casino employees include intrapersonal constraints, interpersonal constraints, and structural constraints. Secondly, by using regression analysis, the study found travel constraints are positively related with job stress while negatively related with job satisfaction. This means reducing travel constraints may create a chance for casino employees to travel so that they could reduce job stress, therefore raise their job satisfaction. Thirdly, this research divided the research samples into three groups by the degree of job stress. The three groups are low satisfaction group, medium satisfaction group, and high satisfaction group. The means values of these groups were compared by t-test. Results showed that there are significant differences of the means values of interpersonal constraints between low satisfaction group and high satisfaction group. This suggests positive interpersonal relationship especially good family member relationship reduce not only job stress but also travel constraints of casino employees. Interestingly, results of t-test showed there is not a significant difference of the means values of structural constraints between low satisfaction group and high satisfaction group. This suggests structural constraints are outside variables which may be related with tourism destination marketing. Destination marketing organizations (DMO) need use all kinds of tools and techniques to promote their tourism destinations so as to reduce structural constraints of casino employees. This research is significant for both theoretical and practical fields. From the theoretical perspective, the study found the internal relationship between travel constraints, job stress, and job satisfaction and the different roles of three dimensions of travel constraints. From the practical perspective, the study provides useful methods to reduce travel constraints and job stress, therefore, raise job satisfaction of casino employees.

Keywords: hotel, job satisfaction, job stress, travel constraints

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Silvia Zanazzi

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Artificial intelligence (AI) has become an integral part of our world, transitioning from scientific exploration to practical applications that impact daily life. The emergence of generative AI is reshaping education, prompting new questions about the role of teachers, the nature of learning, and the overall purpose of schooling. While AI offers the potential for optimizing teaching and learning processes, concerns about discrimination and bias arising from training data and algorithmic decisions persist. There is a risk of a disconnect between the rapid development of AI and the goals of building inclusive educational environments. The prevailing discourse on AI in education often prioritizes efficiency and individual skill acquisition. This narrow focus can undermine the importance of collaborative learning and shared experiences. A growing body of research challenges this perspective, advocating for AI that enhances, rather than replaces, human interaction in education. This study aims to examine the relationship between AI and education critically. Reviewing existing research will identify both AI implementation’s potential benefits and risks. The goal is to develop a framework that supports the ethical and effective integration of AI into education, ensuring it serves the needs of all learners. The theoretical reflection will be developed based on a review of national and international scientific literature on artificial intelligence in education. The primary objective is to curate a selection of critical contributions from diverse disciplinary perspectives and/or an inter- and transdisciplinary viewpoint, providing a state-of-the-art overview and a critical analysis of potential future developments. Subsequently, the thematic analysis of these contributions will enable the creation of a framework for understanding and critically analyzing the role of artificial intelligence in schools and education, highlighting promising directions and potential pitfalls. The expected results are (1) a classification of the cognitive biases present in representations of AI in education and the associated risks and (2) a categorization of potentially beneficial interactions between AI applications and teaching and learning processes, including those already in use or under development. While not exhaustive, the proposed framework will serve as a guide for critically exploring the complexity of AI in education. It will help to reframe dystopian visions often associated with technology and facilitate discussions on fostering synergies that balance the ‘dream’ of quality education for all with the realities of AI implementation. The discourse on artificial intelligence in education, highlighting reductionist models rooted in fragmented and utilitarian views of knowledge, has the merit of stimulating the construction of alternative perspectives that can ‘return’ teaching and learning to education, human growth, and the well-being of individuals and communities.

Keywords: education, artificial intelligence, teaching, learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 13

Authors: Ji Zhou, Jung Hee Seo, Rajat Mittal

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Fish move in groups for foraging, reproduction, predator protection, and hydrodynamic efficiency. Schooling's predator protection involves the "many eyes" theory, which increases predator detection probability in a group. Reduced visual signature in a group scales with school size, offering per-capita protection. The ‘confusion effect’ makes it hard for predators to target prey in a group. These benefits, however, all focus on vision-based sensing, overlooking sound-based detection. Fish, including predators, possess sophisticated sensory systems for pressure waves and underwater sound. The lateral line system detects acoustic waves, while otolith organs sense infrasound, and sharks use an auditory system for low-frequency sounds. Among sound generation mechanisms of fish, the mechanism of dipole sound relates to hydrodynamic pressure forces on the body surface of the fish and this pressure would be affected by group swimming. Thus, swimming within a group could affect this hydrodynamic noise signature of fish and possibly serve as an additional protection afforded by schooling, but none of the studies to date have explored this effect. BAUVs with fin-like propulsors could reduce acoustic noise without compromising performance, addressing issues of anthropogenic noise pollution in marine environments. Therefore, in this study, we used our in-house immersed-boundary method flow and acoustic solver, ViCar3D, to simulate fish schools consisting of four swimmers in the classic ‘diamond’ configuration and discussed the feasibility of yielding higher swimming efficiency and controlling far-field sound signature of the school. We examine the effects of the relative phase of fin flapping of the swimmers and the simulation results indicate that the phase of the fin flapping is a dominant factor in both thrust enhancement and the total sound radiated into the far-field by a group of swimmers. For fish in the “diamond” configuration, a suitable combination of the relative phase difference between pairs of leading fish and trailing fish can result in better swimming performance with significantly lower hydroacoustic noise.

Keywords: fish schooling, biopropulsion, hydrodynamics, hydroacoustics

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Nadia Arikat, Katharine Blain

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During the worst of the COVID pandemic, only essential treatment was provided for patients needing urgent care. With the prolonged extent of the pandemic, there has been a return to more routine referrals for paediatric dentistry advice and treatment for specialist conditions. However, some of these patients and/or their carers may have significant medical issues meaning that attending in-person appointments carries additional risks. This poses an ethical dilemma for clinicians. This project looks at how a secure video conferencing platform (“Near Me”) has been used to assess the need and urgency for in-person new patient visits, particularly for patients and families with additional risks. “Near Me” is a secure online video consulting service used by NHS Scotland. In deciding whether to bring a new patient to the hospital for an appointment, the clinical condition of the teeth together with the urgency for treatment need to be assessed. This is not always apparent from the referral letter. In addition, it is important to judge the risks to the patients and carers of such visits, particularly if they have medical issues. The use and effectiveness of “Near Me” consultations to help decide whether vulnerable paediatric patients should have in-person appointments will be illustrated and discussed using two families: one where the child is medically compromised (Alagille syndrome with previous liver transplant), and the other where there is a medically compromised parent (undergoing chemotherapy and a bone marrow transplant). In both cases, it was necessary to take into consideration the risks and moral implications of requesting that they attend the dental hospital during a pandemic. The option of remote consultation allowed further clinical information to be evaluated and the families take part in the decision-making process about whether and when such visits should be scheduled. These cases will demonstrate how medically compromised patients (or patients with vulnerable carers), could have their dental needs assessed in a socially distanced manner by video consultation. Together, the clinician and the patient’s family can weigh up the risks, with regards to COVID-19, of attending for in-person appointments against the benefit of having treatment. This is particularly important for new paediatric patients who have not yet had a formal assessment. The limitations of this technology will also be discussed. It is limited by internet availability, the strength of the connection, the video quality and families owning a device which allows video calls. For those from a lower socio-economic background or living in some rural areas, this may not be possible or limit its usefulness. For the two patients discussed in this project, where the urgency of their dental condition was unclear, video consultation proved beneficial in deciding an appropriate outcome and preventing unnecessary exposure of vulnerable people to a hospital environment during a pandemic, demonstrating the usefulness of such technology when it is used appropriately.

Keywords: COVID-19, paediatrics, triage, video consultations

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Varsha Tol, Laila Garda, Neelam Bhardwaj, Malata Usar

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In India, differently- abled girls suffer from a “dual stigma” of being female and physically challenged. The general consensus is that they are incapable of standing on their own two feet. It was observed that these girls do not have access to educational programs as most hostels do not keep them after the tenth grade. They are forced to return to a life of poverty and are often considered a liability by their families. Higher education is completely ignored. Parents focus on finding a husband and passing on their ‘burden’ to someone else. An innovative, intervention for differently-abled adolescent girls with the express purpose of mainstreaming them into society was started by Helplife. The objective was to enrich the lives of these differently abled adolescent girls through precise research, focused intervention and professionalism. This programme addresses physical, mental and social rehabilitation of the girls who come from impoverished backgrounds. These adolescents are reached by word of mouth, snowball technique and through the network of the NGO. Applications are invited from potential candidates which are scrutinized by a panel of experts. Selection criteria include her disability, socio-economic status, and desire and drive to make a difference in her own life. The six main areas of intervention are accommodation, education, health, professional courses, counseling and recreational activities. Each girl on an average resides in Helplife for a period of 2-3 years. Analysis of qualitative data collected at various time points indicates holistic development of character. A quality of life questionnaire showed a significant improvement in scores at three different time points in 75% of the current population under intervention i.e. 19 girls. Till date, 25 girls have successfully passed out from the intervention program completing their graduation/post-graduation. Currently, we have 19 differently abled girls housed in three flats in Pune district of Maharashtra. Out of which 14 girls are pursuing their graduation or post-graduation. Six of the girls are working in jobs in various sectors. In conclusion it may be noted with adequate support and guidance the sky is the limit. This journey of 12 years has been a learning for us with ups and downs modifying the intervention at every step. Helplife has a belief of impacting positively, individual lives of differently abled girls in order to empower them in a holistic manner. The intervention has a positive impact on differently abled girls. They serve as role models to other differently abled girls indicating that this is a road map to success by getting empowered to live with full potential and get integrated in the society in a dignified way.

Keywords: differently-abled, dual-stigma, empowerment, youth

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar, Varun Raman

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The Corrective maintenance of components and systems is a problem plaguing almost every industry in the world today. Train operators’ and the maintenance repair and overhaul subsidiary of the Dutch railway company is also facing this problem. A considerable portion of the maintenance activities carried out by the company are unscheduled. This, in turn, severely stresses and stretches the workforce and resources available. One possible solution is to have a robust preventive maintenance plan. The other possible solution is to plan maintenance based on real-time data obtained from sensor-based ‘Health and Usage Monitoring Systems.’ The former has been investigated in this paper. The preventive maintenance model developed for train operator will subsequently be extended, to tackle the unscheduled maintenance problem also affecting the aerospace industry. The extension of the model to the aerospace sector will be dealt with in the second part of the research, and it would, in turn, validate the soundness of the model developed. Thus, there are distinct areas that will be addressed in this paper, including the mathematical modelling of preventive maintenance and optimization based on cost and system availability. The results of this research will help an organization to choose the right maintenance strategy, allowing it to save considerable sums of money as opposed to overspending under the guise of maintaining high asset availability. The concept of delay time modelling was used to address the practical problem of unscheduled maintenance in this paper. The delay time modelling can be used to help with support planning for a given asset. The model was run using MATLAB, and the results are shown that the ideal inspection intervals computed using the extended from a minimal cost perspective were 29 days, and from a minimum downtime, perspective was 14 days. Risk matrix integration was constructed to represent the risk in terms of the probability of a fault leading to breakdown maintenance and its consequences in terms of maintenance cost. Thus, the choice of an optimal inspection interval of 29 days, resulted in a cost of approximately 50 Euros and the corresponding value of b(T) was 0.011. These values ensure that the risk associated with component X being maintained at an inspection interval of 29 days is more than acceptable. Thus, a switch in maintenance frequency from 90 days to 29 days would be optimal from the point of view of cost, downtime and risk.

Keywords: delay time modelling, unscheduled maintenance, reliability, maintainability, availability

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Getahun Nigusie Demise

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Background; antiretroviral treatment reduce HIV-related morbidity, and prolonged survival of patients however, there is lack of up-to-date information concerning the treatment long term effect on the survival of HIV positive children especially in the study area. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the incidence and predictors of mortality among HIV positive children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in public hospitals of Harer town who were enrolled from 2011 to 2021. Methodology: Institution based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 429 HIV positive children enrolled in ART clinic from January 1st 2011 to December30th 2021. Data were collected from medical cards by using a data extraction form, Descriptive analyses were used to Summarized the results, and life table was used to estimate survival probability at specific point of time after introduction of ART. Kaplan Meier survival curve together with log rank test was used to compare survival between different categories of covariates, and Multivariate Cox-proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate adjusted Hazard rate. Variables with p-values ≤0.25 in bivariable analysis were candidates to the multivariable analysis. Finally, variables with p-values < 0.05 were considered as significant variables. Results: The study participants had followed for a total of 2549.6 child-years (30596 child months) with an overall mortality rate of 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1, 2.04) per 100 child-years. Their median survival time was 112 months (95% CI: 101–117). There were 38 children with unknown outcome, 39 deaths, and 55 children transfer out to different facility. The overall survival at 6, 12, 24, 48 months were 98%, 96%, 95%, 94% respectively. being in WHO clinical Stage four (AHR=4.55, 95% CI:1.36, 15.24), having anemia(AHR=2.56, 95% CI:1.11, 5.93), baseline low absolute CD4 count (AHR=2.95, 95% CI: 1.22, 7.12), stunting (AHR=4.1, 95% CI: 1.11, 15.42), wasting (AHR=4.93, 95% CI: 1.31, 18.76), poor adherence to treatment (AHR=3.37, 95% CI: 1.25, 9.11), having TB infection at enrollment (AHR=3.26, 95% CI: 1.25, 8.49),and no history of change their regimen(AHR=7.1, 95% CI: 2.74, 18.24), were independent predictors of death. Conclusion: more than half of death occurs within 2 years. Prevalent tuberculosis, anemia, wasting, and stunting nutritional status, socioeconomic factors, and baseline opportunistic infection were independent predictors of death. Increasing early screening and managing those predictors are required.

Keywords: human immunodeficiency virus-positive children, anti-retroviral therapy, survival, treatment, Ethiopia

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Authors: Roseliza Mat Alipiah, David Raffaelli, J. C. R. Smart

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This research is a new approach as it integrates information from both environmental and social sciences to inform effective management of the wetlands. A three-stage research framework was developed for modelling the drivers and pressures imposed on the wetlands and their impacts to the ecosystem and the local communities. Firstly, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was used to predict the probability of anthropogenic activities affecting the delivery of different key wetland ecosystem services under different management scenarios. Secondly, Choice Experiments (CEs) were used to quantify the relative preferences which key wetland stakeholder group (aquaculturists) held for delivery of different levels of these key ecosystem services. Thirdly, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was applied to produce an ordinal ranking of the alternative management scenarios accounting for their impacts upon ecosystem service delivery as perceived through the preferences of the aquaculturists. This integrated ecosystem management approach was applied to a wetland ecosystem in Setiu, Terengganu, Malaysia which currently supports a significant level of aquaculture activities. This research has produced clear guidelines to inform policy makers considering alternative wetland management scenarios: Intensive Aquaculture, Conservation or Ecotourism, in addition to the Status Quo. The findings of this research are as follows: The BBN revealed that current aquaculture activity is likely to have significant impacts on water column nutrient enrichment, but trivial impacts on caged fish biomass, especially under the Intensive Aquaculture scenario. Secondly, the best fitting CE models identified several stakeholder sub-groups for aquaculturists, each with distinct sets of preferences for the delivery of key ecosystem services. Thirdly, the MCDA identified Conservation as the most desirable scenario overall based on ordinal ranking in the eyes of most of the stakeholder sub-groups. Ecotourism and Status Quo scenarios were the next most preferred and Intensive Aquaculture was the least desirable scenario. The methodologies developed through this research provide an opportunity for improving planning and decision making processes that aim to deliver sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in Malaysia.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network (BBN), choice experiments (CE), multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), aquaculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Siming Xie

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In social networks, the term homophily refers to the tendency of agents with similar characteristics to link with one another and is so robustly observed across many contexts and dimensions. The starting point of my research is the observation that the “type” of agents is not a single exogenous variable. Agents, despite their differences in race, religion, and other hard to alter characteristics, may share interests and engage in activities that cut across those predetermined lines. This research aims to capture the interactions of homophily effects in a model where agents have two-dimension characteristics (i.e., race and personal hobbies such as basketball, which one either likes or dislikes) and with biases in meeting opportunities and in favor of same-type friendships. A novel feature of my model is providing a matching process with biased meeting probability on different dimensions, which could help to understand the structuring process in multidimensional networks without missing layer interdependencies. The main contribution of this study is providing a welfare based matching process for agents with multi-dimensional characteristics. In particular, this research shows that the biases in meeting opportunities on one dimension would lead to the emergence of homophily on the other dimension. The objective of this research is to determine the pattern of homophily in network formations, which will shed light on our understanding of segregation and its remedies. By constructing a two-dimension matching process, this study explores a method to describe agents’ homophilous behavior in a social network with multidimension and construct a game in which the minorities and majorities play different strategies in a society. It also shows that the optimal strategy is determined by the relative group size, where society would suffer more from social segregation if the two racial groups have a similar size. The research also has political implications—cultivating the same characteristics among agents helps diminishing social segregation, but only if the minority group is small enough. This research includes both theoretical models and empirical analysis. Providing the friendship formation model, the author first uses MATLAB to perform iteration calculations, then derives corresponding mathematical proof on previous results, and last shows that the model is consistent with empirical evidence from high school friendships. The anonymous data comes from The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health).

Keywords: homophily, multidimension, social networks, friendships

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Authors: Mohamed K. Khalil, Mohamed S. Ragab

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Atomizers are used in many engineering applications including diesel engines, petrol engines and spray combustion in furnaces as well as gas turbine engines. These atomizers are used to increase the specific surface area of the fuel, which achieve a high rate of fuel mixing and evaporation. In all combustion systems reduction in mean drop size is a challenge which has many advantages since it leads to rapid and easier ignition, higher volumetric heat release rate, wider burning range and lower exhaust concentrations of the pollutant emissions. Pressure atomizers have a different configuration for design such as swirl atomizer (simplex), dual orifice, spill return, plain orifice, duplex and fan spray. Simplex pressure atomizers are the most common type of all. Among all types of atomizers, pressure swirl types resemble a special category since they differ in quality of atomization, the reliability of operation, simplicity of construction and low expenditure of energy. But, the disadvantages of these atomizers are that they require very high injection pressure and have low discharge coefficient owing to the fact that the air core covers the majority of the atomizer orifice. To overcome these problems, dual orifice atomizer was designed. This paper proposes a detailed mathematical model design procedure for both pressure swirl atomizer (Simplex) and dual orifice atomizer, examines the effects of varying fuel type and makes a clear comparison between the two types. Using five types of fuel (JP-5, JA1, JP-4, Diesel and Bio-Diesel) as a case study, reveal the effect of changing fuel type and its properties on atomizers design and spray characteristics. Which effect on combustion process parameters; Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD), spray cone angle and sheet thickness with varying the discharge coefficient from 0.27 to 0.35 during takeoff for high bypass turbofan engines. The spray atomizer performance of the pressure swirl fuel injector was compared to the dual orifice fuel injector at the same differential pressure and discharge coefficient using Excel. The results are analyzed and handled to form the final reliability results for fuel injectors in high bypass turbofan engines. The results show that the Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) in dual orifice atomizer is larger than Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) in pressure swirl atomizer, the film thickness (h) in dual orifice atomizer is less than the film thickness (h) in pressure swirl atomizer. The Spray Cone Angle (α) in pressure swirl atomizer is larger than Spray Cone Angle (α) in dual orifice atomizer.

Keywords: gas turbine engines, atomization process, Sauter mean diameter, JP-5

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Authors: Sylvain Perrin, Thomas Saillour

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The Grande-Motte port and seafront development project on the French Mediterranean coastline entailed evaluating wave impact loads (pressures and forces) on the new beach seawall and comparing the resulting scour potential at the base of the existing and new seawall. A physical model was built at ARTELIA’s hydraulics laboratory in Grenoble (France) to provide insight into the evolution of scouring overtime at the front of the wall, quasi-static and impulsive wave force intensity and distribution on the wall, and water and sand overtopping discharges over the wall. The beach was constituted of fine sand and approximately 50 m wide above mean sea level (MSL). Seabed slopes were in the range of 0.5% offshore to 1.5% closer to the beach. A smooth concrete structure will replace the existing concrete seawall with an elevated curved crown wall. Prior the start of breaking (at -7 m MSL contour), storm-driven maximum spectral significant wave heights of 2.8 m and 3.2 m were estimated for the benchmark historical storm event dated of 1997 and the 50-year return period storms respectively, resulting in 1 m high waves at the beach. For the wave load assessment, a tensor scale measured wave forces and moments and five piezo / piezo-resistive pressure sensors were placed on the wall. Light-weight sediment physical model and pressure and force measurements were performed with scale 1:18. The polyvinyl chloride light-weight particles used to model the prototype silty sand had a density of approximately 1 400 kg/m3 and a median diameter (d50) of 0.3 mm. Quantitative assessments of the seabed evolution were made using a measuring rod and also a laser scan survey. Testing demonstrated the occurrence of numerous impulsive wave impacts on the reflector (22%), induced not by direct wave breaking but mostly by wave run-up slamming on the top curved part of the wall. Wave forces of up to 264 kilonewtons and impulsive pressure spikes of up to 127 kilonewtons were measured. Maximum scour of -0.9 m was measured for the new seawall versus -0.6 m for the existing seawall, which is imputable to increased wave reflection (coefficient was 25.7 - 30.4% vs 23.4 - 28.6%). This paper presents a methodology for the setup and operation of a physical model in order to assess the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes at a beach seawall during storms events. It discusses the pros and cons of such methodology versus others, notably regarding structures peculiarities and model effects.

Keywords: beach, impacts, scour, seawall, waves

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Tharwat Ibrahim Rushdy, Warda Youssef Mohammed Morsy, Hanaa Ali Ahmed Elfeky

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Background: Intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) is the first and the most commonly used mechanical circulatory support for patients with acute coronary syndromes and cardiogenic shock. Therefore, critical care nurses not only have to know how to monitor and operate the IABP, but also to provide interventions for preventing possible complications. Aim of the study: To assess nurses' knowledge and practices regarding care of patients connected to IABP at the ICUs of Cairo University Hospitals. Research design: A descriptive exploratory design was utilized. Sample: Convenience samples of 40 nurses were included in the current study. Setting: This study was carried out at the Intensive Care Units of Cairo University Hospitals. Tools of data collection: Three tools were developed, tested for clarity, and feasibility: a- Nurses' personal background sheet, b- IABP nurses' knowledge self-administered questionnaire, and c- IABP Nurses' practice observational checklist. Results: The majority of the studied sample had unsatisfactory knowledge and practice level (88% & 95%) respectively with a mean of 9.45+2.94 and 30.5+8.7, respectively. Unsatisfactory knowledge was found regarding description and physiological effects, nursing care, indications, contraindications, complications, weaning, and removal of IABP in percentage of 95%, 90%, 72.5%, and 57.5%, respectively, with a mean total knowledge score of 9.45 +2.94. In addition, unsatisfactory practice was found regarding about preparation and initiation of IABP therapy, nursing practice during therapy, weaning, and removal of IABP in percentages of (97.5%, 97.5%, and 90%), respectively. Finally, knowledge level was found to differ significantly in relation to gender (t = 2.46 at P ≤ 0.018). However, gender didn't play a role in relation to practice (t = 0.086 at P≤ 0.932). Conclusion: In spite of having vital role in assessment and management of critically ill patients, critical care nurses in the current study had in general unsatisfactory knowledge and practice regarding care of patients connected to IABP. Recommendation: updating knowledge and practice of ICU nurses through carrying out continuing educational programs about IABP; strict observation of nurses' practice when caring for patients connected to IABP and provision of guidance to correct of poor practices and replication of this study on larger probability sample selected from different geographical locations.

Keywords: knowledge, practice, intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP), ICU nurses, intensive care unit (ICU), introduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: Disha Bhanot, Vinish Kathuria

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This study focusses on the issue of distress sale in horticulture sector in India, which faces unique challenges, given the perishable nature of horticulture crops, seasonal production and paucity of post-harvest produce management links. Distress sale, from a farmer’s perspective may be defined as urgent sale of normal or distressed goods, at deeply discounted prices (way below the cost of production) and it is usually characterized by unfavorable conditions for the seller (farmer). The small and marginal farmers, often involved in subsistence farming, stand to lose substantially if they receive lower prices than expected prices (typically framed in relation to cost of production). Distress sale maximizes price uncertainty of produce leading to substantial income loss; and with increase in input costs of farming, the high variability in harvest price severely affects profit margin of farmers, thereby affecting their survival. The objective of this study is to model the occurrence of distress sale by tomato cultivators in the Indian state of Maharashtra, against the background of differential access to set of factors such as - capital, irrigation facilities, warehousing, storage and processing facilities, and institutional arrangements for procurement etc. Data is being collected using primary survey of over 200 farmers in key tomato growing areas of Maharashtra, asking information on the above factors in addition to seeking information on cost of cultivation, selling price, time gap between harvesting and selling, role of middleman in selling, besides other socio-economic variables. Farmers selling their produce far below the cost of production would indicate an occurrence of distress sale. Occurrence of distress sale would then be modelled as a function of farm, household and institutional characteristics. Heckman-two-stage model would be applied to find the probability/likelihood of a famer falling into distress sale as well as to ascertain how the extent of distress sale varies in presence/absence of various factors. Findings of the study would recommend suitable interventions and promotion of strategies that would help farmers better manage price uncertainties, avoid distress sale and increase profit margins, having direct implications on poverty.

Keywords: distress sale, horticulture, income loss, India, price uncertainity

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Gokul Prasad, Pennan Chinnasamy

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The degradation of groundwater resources, attributed to factors such as excessive abstraction and contamination, has emerged as a global concern. This study delves into the stable isotopes of water) in a hard-rock aquifer situated in the Upper Godavari watershed, an agriculturally rich region in India underlain by Basalt. The higher groundwater draft (> 90%) poses significant risks; comprehending groundwater sources, flow patterns, and their environmental impacts is pivotal for researchers and water managers. The region has faced five droughts in the past 20 years; four are categorized as medium. The recharge rates are variable and show a very minimum contribution to groundwater. The rainfall pattern shows vast variability, with the region receiving seasonal monsoon rainfall for just four months and the rest of the year experiencing minimal rainfall. This research closely monitored monsoon precipitation inputs and examined spatial and temporal fluctuations in δ18O and δ2H in both groundwater and precipitation. By discerning individual recharge events during monsoons, it became possible to identify periods when evaporation led to groundwater quality deterioration, characterized by elevated salinity and stable isotope values in the return flow. The locally derived meteoric water line (LMWL) (δ2H = 6.72 * δ18O + 1.53, r² = 0.6) provided valuable insights into the groundwater system. The leftward shift of the Nashik LMWL in relation to the GMWL and LMWL indicated groundwater evaporation (-33 ‰), supported by spatial variations in electrical conductivity (EC) data. Groundwater in the eastern and northern watershed areas exhibited higher salinity > 3000uS/cm, expanding > 40% of the area compared to the western and southern regions due to geological disparities (alluvium vs basalt). The findings emphasize meteoric precipitation as the primary groundwater source in the watershed. However, spatial variations in isotope values and chemical constituents indicate other contributing factors, including evaporation, groundwater source type, and natural or anthropogenic (specifically agricultural and industrial) contaminants. Therefore, the study recommends focused hydro geochemistry and isotope analysis in areas with strong agricultural and industrial influence for the development of holistic groundwater management plans for protecting the groundwater aquifers' quantity and quality.

Keywords: groundwater quality, stable isotopes, salinity, groundwater management, hard-rock aquifer

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Nada Basset

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Purpose: To examine the nature of the civil service sector as an employer through identifying the likely ways to develop employees’ commitment towards change in the civil service sector. Design/Methodology/Approach: a qualitative research approach was followed. Data was collected via a triangulation of interviews, non-participant observation and archival documents analysis. Non-probability sampling took place with a case-study method applied on a sample of 33 civil servants working in the Egyptian Ministry of State for Administrative Development (MSAD) which is the civil service entity acting as the change agent responsible for managing the government administrative reforms plan in the civil service sector. All study participants were actually working in one of the change projects/programmes and had a minimum of 12 months of service in the civil service. Interviews were digitally recorded and transcribed in the form of MS-Word documents, and data transcripts were analyzed manually using MS-Excel worksheets and main research themes were developed and statistics drawn using those Excel worksheets. Findings: The results demonstrate that developing the civil servant’s commitment towards change may require a number of suggested solutions like (1) employee involvement and participation in the planning and implementation processes, (2) linking the employee support to change to some tangible rewards and incentives, (3) appointing some inspirational change leaders that should act as role models, and (4) as a last resort, enforcing employee’s commitment towards change by coercion and authoritarianism. Practical Implications: it is clear that civil servants’ lack of organizational commitment is not directly related to their level of commitment towards change. The research findings showed that civil servants’ commitment towards change can be raised and promoted by getting them involved in the planning and implementation processes, as this develops some sense of belongingness and ownership, thus there is a fair chance that low organizationally committed civil servants can develop high commitment towards change; given they are provided a favorable environment where they are invited to participate and get involved into the move of change. Originality/Value: the research addresses a relatively new area of ‘developing organizational commitment in modern bureaucracies’ by virtue of investigating the levels of civil servants’ commitment towards their jobs and/or organizations -on one hand- and suggesting different ways of developing their commitment towards administrative reform and change initiatives in the Egyptian civil service sector.

Keywords: change, commitment, Egypt, bureaucracy

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: Dr. Jenit Gandhi, Dr. Manojith SS, Dr. Nakul GV, Dr. Sharath Honnani, Dr. Shaurav Ghosh, Dr. Neel Shetty, Dr. Nagabhushan JS, Dr. Manish Joshi

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Introduction: Acute pancreatitis is an inflammatory condition of the pancreas which begins in pancreatic acinar cells and triggers local inflammation that may progress to systemic inflammatory response (SIRS) and causing distant organ involvement and its function and ending up with multiple organ dysfunction syndromes (MODS). Aim: A comparative study in acute pancreatitis to find out the effectiveness of early addition of Ulinastatin to current standard care in Indian subjects . Methodology: A current prospective observational study is done during study period of 1year (Dec 2018 –Dec 2019) duration to evaluate the effect of early addition of Ulinastatin to the current standard treatment and its efficacy to reduce the early complication, analgesic requirement and duration of hospital stay in patients with Acute Pancreatitis. Results: In the control group 25 were males and 05 were females. In the test group 18 were males and 12 females. Majority was in the age group between 30 - 70 yrs of age with >50% in the 30-50yrs age group in both test and control groups. The VAS was median grade 3 in control group as compared to median grade 2 in test group , the pain was more in the initial 2 days in test group compared to 4 days in test group , the analgesic requirement was used for more in control group (median 6) to test group( median 3 days ). On follow up after 5 days for a period of 2 weeks none of the patients in the test group developed any complication. Where as in the control group 8 patients developed pleural effusion, 04-Pseudopancreatic cyst, 02 – patient developed portal vein and splenic vein thrombosis, 02 patients – ventilator with ARDS which were treated symptomatically whereas in test group 02 patient developed pleural effusions and 01 pseudo pancreatic cyst with splenic artery aneurysm, 01 – patient with AKI and MODS symptomatically treated. The duration of hospital stay for a median period of 4 days (2 – 7 days) in test group and 7 days (4 -10 days) in control group. All patients were able to return to normal work on an average of 5days compared 8days in control group, the difference was significant. Conclusion:The study concluded that early addition of Ulinastatin to current standard treatment of acute Pancreatitis is effective in reducing pain, early complication and duration of hospital stay in Indian subject

Keywords: Ulinastatin, VAS – visual analogue score , AKI – acute kidney injury , ARDS – acute respiratory distress syndrome

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Samira Humaira Habib

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Diabetes has profound effects on individuals and their families. If diabetes is not well monitored and managed, then it leads to long-term complications and a large and growing cost to the health care system. Prevalence and socioeconomic burden of diabetes and relative return of investment for the elimination or the reduction of the burden are much more important regarding its cost burden. Various studies regarding the socioeconomic cost burden of diabetes are well explored in developed countries but almost absent in developing countries like Bangladesh. The main objective of the study is to estimate the total socioeconomic burden of diabetes. It is a prospective longitudinal follow up study which is analytical in nature. Primary and secondary data are collected from patients who are undergoing treatment for diabetes at the out-patient department of Bangladesh Institute of Research & Rehabilitation in Diabetes, Endocrine & Metabolic Disorders (BIRDEM). Of the 2115 diabetic subjects, females constitute around 50.35% of the study subject, and the rest are male (49.65%). Among the subjects, 1323 are controlled, and 792 are uncontrolled diabetes. Cost analysis of 2115 diabetic patients shows that the total cost of diabetes management and treatment is US$ 903018 with an average of US$ 426.95 per patient. In direct cost, the investigation and medical treatment at hospital along with investigation constitute most of the cost in diabetes. The average cost of a hospital is US$ 311.79, which indicates an alarming warn for diabetic patients. The indirect cost shows that cost of productivity loss (US$ 51110.1) is higher among the all indirect item. All constitute total indirect cost as US$ 69215.7. The incremental cost of intensive management of uncontrolled diabetes is US$ 101.54 per patient and event-free time gained in this group is 0.55 years and the life years gain is 1.19 years. The incremental cost per event-free year gained is US$ 198.12. The incremental cost of intensive management of the controlled group is US$ 89.54 per patient and event-free time gained is 0.68 years, and the life year gain is 1.12 years. The incremental cost per event-free year gained is US$ 223.34. The EuroQoL difference between the groups is found to be 64.04. The cost-effective ratio is found to be US$ 1.64 cost per effect in case of controlled diabetes and US$ 1.69 cost per effect in case of uncontrolled diabetes. So management of diabetes is much more cost-effective. Cost of young type 1 diabetic patient showed upper socioeconomic class, and with the increase of the duration of diabetes, the cost increased also. The dietary pattern showed macronutrients intake and cost are significantly higher in the uncontrolled group than their counterparts. Proper management and control of diabetes can decrease the cost of care for the long term.

Keywords: cost, cost-effective, chronic diseases, diabetes care, burden, Bangladesh

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

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In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: J. Van Engeland, C. Lavigne, S. De Jaeger

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In the light of the transition towards a more circular economy, recovery of products, parts or materials will gain in importance. Additionally, the EU proximity principle related to waste management and emissions generated by transporting large amounts of end-of-life products, shift attention to local recovery networks. The Flemish inter-communal cooperation for municipal solid waste management Meetjesland (IVM) is currently investigating the set-up of such a network. More specifically, the network encompasses the recycling of polyvinyl chloride (PVC), which is collected in separate containers. When these containers are full, a truck should transport them to the processor which can recycle the PVC into new products. This paper proposes a model to optimize the container collection. The containers are located at different Civic Amenity sites (CA sites) in a certain region. Since people can drop off their waste at these CA sites, the containers will gradually fill up during a planning horizon. If a certain container is full, it has to be collected and replaced by an empty container. The collected waste is then transported to a single processor. To perform this collection and transportation of containers, the responsible firm has a set of vehicles stationed at a single depot and different personnel crews. A vehicle can load exactly one container. If a trailer is attached to the vehicle, it can load an additional container. Each day of the planning horizon, the different crews and vehicles leave the depot to collect containers at the different sites. After loading one or two containers, the crew has to drive to the processor for unloading the waste and to pick up empty containers. Afterwards, the crew can again visit sites or it can return to the depot to end its collection work for that day. All along the collection process, the crew has to respect the opening hours of the sites. In order to allow for some flexibility, a crew is allowed to wait a certain amount of time at the gate of a site until it opens. The problem described can be modelled as a variant to the PVRP-TW (Periodic Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows). However, a vehicle can at maximum load two containers, hence only two subsequent site visits are possible. For that reason, we will refer to the model as a model for building tactical waste collection schemes. The goal is to a find a schedule describing which crew should visit which CA site on which day to minimize the number of trucks and the routing costs. The model was coded in IBM CPLEX Optimization studio and applied to a number of test instances. Good results were obtained, and specific suggestions concerning route and truck costs could be made. For a large range of input parameters, collection schemes using two trucks are obtained.

Keywords: container collection, crew scheduling, mixed integer linear programming, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Giorgio Bertolazzi, Panayiotis Benos, Michele Tumminello, Claudia Coronnello

Abstract:

MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that post-transcriptionally regulate the expression levels of messenger RNAs. MicroRNA regulation activity depends on the recognition of binding sites located on mRNA molecules. ComiR (Combinatorial miRNA targeting) is a user friendly web tool realized to predict the targets of a set of microRNAs, starting from their expression profile. ComiR incorporates miRNA expression in a thermodynamic binding model, and it associates each gene with the probability of being a target of a set of miRNAs. ComiR algorithms were trained with the information regarding binding sites in the 3’UTR region, by using a reliable dataset containing the targets of endogenously expressed microRNA in D. melanogaster S2 cells. This dataset was obtained by comparing the results from two different experimental approaches, i.e., inhibition, and immunoprecipitation of the AGO1 protein; this protein is a component of the microRNA induced silencing complex. In this work, we tested whether including coding region binding sites in the ComiR algorithm improves the performance of the tool in predicting microRNA targets. We focused the analysis on the D. melanogaster species and updated the ComiR underlying database with the currently available releases of mRNA and microRNA sequences. As a result, we find that the ComiR algorithm trained with the information related to the coding regions is more efficient in predicting the microRNA targets, with respect to the algorithm trained with 3’utr information. On the other hand, we show that 3’utr based predictions can be seen as complementary to the coding region based predictions, which suggests that both predictions, from 3'UTR and coding regions, should be considered in a comprehensive analysis. Furthermore, we observed that the lists of targets obtained by analyzing data from one experimental approach only, that is, inhibition or immunoprecipitation of AGO1, are not reliable enough to test the performance of our microRNA target prediction algorithm. Further analysis will be conducted to investigate the effectiveness of the tool with data from other species, provided that validated datasets, as obtained from the comparison of RISC proteins inhibition and immunoprecipitation experiments, will be available for the same samples. Finally, we propose to upgrade the existing ComiR web-tool by including the coding region based trained model, available together with the 3’UTR based one.

Keywords: AGO1, coding region, Drosophila melanogaster, microRNA target prediction

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