Search results for: optimal bias techniques
9797 Systematic Review of Quantitative Risk Assessment Tools and Their Effect on Racial Disproportionality in Child Welfare Systems
Authors: Bronwen Wade
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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality
Procedia PDF Downloads 469796 Off-Policy Q-learning Technique for Intrusion Response in Network Security
Authors: Zheni S. Stefanova, Kandethody M. Ramachandran
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With the increasing dependency on our computer devices, we face the necessity of adequate, efficient and effective mechanisms, for protecting our network. There are two main problems that Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) attempt to solve. 1) To detect the attack, by analyzing the incoming traffic and inspect the network (intrusion detection). 2) To produce a prompt response when the attack occurs (intrusion prevention). It is critical creating an Intrusion detection model that will detect a breach in the system on time and also challenging making it provide an automatic and with an acceptable delay response at every single stage of the monitoring process. We cannot afford to adopt security measures with a high exploiting computational power, and we are not able to accept a mechanism that will react with a delay. In this paper, we will propose an intrusion response mechanism that is based on artificial intelligence, and more precisely, reinforcement learning techniques (RLT). The RLT will help us to create a decision agent, who will control the process of interacting with the undetermined environment. The goal is to find an optimal policy, which will represent the intrusion response, therefore, to solve the Reinforcement learning problem, using a Q-learning approach. Our agent will produce an optimal immediate response, in the process of evaluating the network traffic.This Q-learning approach will establish the balance between exploration and exploitation and provide a unique, self-learning and strategic artificial intelligence response mechanism for IDS.Keywords: cyber security, intrusion prevention, optimal policy, Q-learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 2309795 Enhanced Photoelectrochemical performance of TiO₂ Nanorods: The Critical Role of Hydrothermal Reaction Time
Authors: Srijitra Khanpakdee, Teera Butburee, Jung-Ho Yun, Miaoqiang Lyu, Supphasin Thaweesak, Piangjai Peerakiatkhajohn
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The synthesis of titanium dioxide (TiO₂) nanorods (NRs) on fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO) glass via hydrothermal methods was investigated to determine the optimal reaction time for enhanced photocatalytic and optical performance. Reaction times of 4, 6, and 8 hours were studied. Characterization through SEM, UV-vis, XRD, FTIR, Raman spectroscopy and photoelectrochemical (PEC) techniques revealed significant differences in the properties of the TiO₂ NRs based on the reaction duration. XRD and Raman spectroscopy analysis confirmed the formation of the rutile phase of TiO₂. As photoanodes in PEC cells, TiO₂ NRs synthesized for 4 hours exhibited the best photocatalytic activity, with the highest photocurrent density and superior charge transport properties, attributed to their densely packed vertical structure. Longer reaction times resulted in less optimal morphological and photoelectrochemical characteristics. The bandgap of the TiO₂ NRs remained consistent around 3.06 eV, with only slight variations observed. This study highlights the critical role of reaction time in hydrothermal synthesis, identifying 4 hours as the optimal duration for producing TiO₂ NRs with superior photoelectrochemical performance. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing TiO₂-based materials for solar energy conversion and renewable energy applications.Keywords: titanium dioxide, nanorods, hydrothermal, photocatalytic, photoelectrochemical
Procedia PDF Downloads 299794 Hydro-Mechanical Behavior of Calcareous Soils in Arid Region
Authors: I. Goual, M. S. Goual, M. K. Gueddouda, Taïbi Saïd, Abou-Bekr Nabil, A. Ferhat
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This paper presents the study of hydro mechanical behavior of this optimal mixture. A first experimental phase was carried out in order to find the optimal mixture. This showed that the material composed of 80% tuff and 20% calcareous sand provides the maximum mechanical strength. The second experimental phase concerns the study of the drying- wetting behavior of the optimal mixture was carried out on slurry samples and compacted samples at the MPO. Experimental results let to deduce the parameters necessary for the prediction of the hydro-mechanical behavior of pavement formulated from tuff and calcareous sand mixtures, related to moisture. This optimal mixture satisfies the regulation rules and hence constitutes a good local eco-material, abundantly available, for the conception of pavements.Keywords: tuff, sandy calcareous, road engineering, hydro mechanical behaviour, suction
Procedia PDF Downloads 5019793 Joint Optimal Pricing and Lot-Sizing Decisions for an Advance Sales System under Stochastic Conditions
Authors: Maryam Ghoreishi, Christian Larsen
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In this paper, we investigate the effect of stochastic inputs on problem of joint optimal pricing and lot-sizing decisions where the inventory cycle is divided into advance and spot sales periods. During the advance sales period, customer can make reservations while customer with reservations can cancel their order. However, during the spot sales period customers receive the order as soon as the order is placed, but they cannot make any reservation or cancellation during that period. We assume that the inter arrival times during the advance sales and spot sales period are exponentially distributed where the arrival rate is decreasing function of price. Moreover, we assume that the number of cancelled reservations is binomially distributed. In addition, we assume that deterioration process follows an exponential distribution. We investigate two cases. First, we consider two-state case where we find the optimal price during the spot sales period and the optimal price during the advance sales period. Next, we develop a generalized case where we extend two-state case also to allow dynamic prices during the spot sales period. We apply the Markov decision theory in order to find the optimal solutions. In addition, for the generalized case, we apply the policy iteration algorithm in order to find the optimal prices, the optimal lot-size and maximum advance sales amount.Keywords: inventory control, pricing, Markov decision theory, advance sales system
Procedia PDF Downloads 3189792 Design and Optimization of a Customized External Fixation Device for Lower Limb Injuries
Authors: Mohammed S. Alqahtani, Paulo J. Bartolo
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External fixation is a common technique for the treatment and stabilization of bone fractures. Different designs have been proposed by companies and research groups, but all of them present limitations such as high weight, not comfortable to use, and not customized to individual patients. This paper proposes a lightweight customized external fixator, overcoming some of these limitations. External fixators are designed using a set of techniques such as medical imaging, CAD modelling, finite element analysis, and full factorial design of experiments. Key design parameters are discussed, and the optimal set of parameters is used to design the final external fixator. Numerical simulations are used to validate design concepts. Results present an optimal external fixation design with weight reduction of 13% without compromising its stiffness and structural integrity. External fixators are also designed to be additively manufactured, allowing to develop a strategy for personalization.Keywords: computer-aided design modelling, external fixation, finite element analysis, full factorial, personalization
Procedia PDF Downloads 1519791 A Stable Method for Determination of the Number of Independent Components
Authors: Yuyan Yi, Jingyi Zheng, Nedret Billor
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Independent component analysis (ICA) is one of the most commonly used blind source separation (BSS) techniques for signal pre-processing, such as noise reduction and feature extraction. The main parameter in the ICA method is the number of independent components (IC). Although there have been several methods for the determination of the number of ICs, it has not been given sufficient attentionto this important parameter. In this study, wereview the mostused methods fordetermining the number of ICs and providetheir advantages and disadvantages. Further, wepropose an improved version of column-wise ICAByBlock method for the determination of the number of ICs.To assess the performance of the proposed method, we compare the column-wise ICAbyBlock with several existing methods through different ICA methods by using simulated and real signal data. Results show that the proposed column-wise ICAbyBlock is an effective and stable method for determining the optimal number of components in ICA. This method is simple, and results can be demonstrated intuitively with good visualizations.Keywords: independent component analysis, optimal number, column-wise, correlation coefficient, cross-validation, ICAByblock
Procedia PDF Downloads 939790 The Inattentional Blindness Paradigm: A Breaking Wave for Attentional Biases in Test Anxiety
Authors: Kritika Kulhari, Aparna Sahu
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Test anxiety results from concerns about failure in examinations or evaluative situations. Attentional biases are known to pronounce the symptomatic expression of test anxiety. In recent times, the inattentional blindness (IB) paradigm has shown promise as an attention bias modification treatment (ABMT) for anxiety by overcoming practice and expectancy effects which preexisting paradigms fail to counter. The IB paradigm assesses the inability of an individual to attend to a stimulus that appears suddenly while indulging in a perceptual discrimination task. The present study incorporated an IB task with three critical items (book, face, and triangle) appearing randomly in the perceptual discrimination task. Attentional biases were assessed as detection and identification of the critical item. The sample (N = 50) consisted of low test anxiety (LTA) and high test anxiety (HTA) groups based on the reactions to tests scale scores. Test threat manipulation was done with pre- and post-test assessment of test anxiety using the State Test Anxiety Inventory. A mixed factorial design with gender, test anxiety, presence or absence of test threat, and critical items was conducted to assess their effects on attentional biases. Results showed only a significant main effect for test anxiety on detection with higher accuracy of detection of the critical item for the LTA group. The study presents promising results in the realm of ABMT for test anxiety.Keywords: attentional bias, attentional bias modification treatment, inattentional blindness, test anxiety
Procedia PDF Downloads 2189789 Risk Management in Construction Projects
Authors: Mustafa Dogru, Ruveyda Komurlu
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Companies and professionals in the construction sector face various risks in every project depending on the characteristics, size, complexity, the location of the projects and the techniques used. Some risks’ effects may increase as the project progresses whereas new risks may emerge. Because of the ever-changing nature of the risks, risk management is a cyclical process that needs to be repeated throughout the project. Since the risks threaten the success of the project, risk management is an important part of the entire project management process. The aims of this study are to emphasize the importance of risk management in construction projects, summarize the risk identification process, and introduce a number of methods for preventing risks such as alternative design, checklists, prototyping and test-analysis-correction technique etc. Following the literature review conducted to list the techniques for preventing risks, case studies has been performed to compare and evaluate the success of the techniques in a number of completed projects with the same typology, performed domestic and international. Findings of the study suggest that controlling and minimizing the level of the risks in construction projects, taking optimal precautions for different risks, and mitigating or eliminating the effects of risks are important in order to prevent additional costs for the project. Additionally, focusing on the risks that have highest impact is the most rational way to minimize the effects of the risks on projects.Keywords: construction projects, construction management, project management, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 3059788 Developing an Out-of-Distribution Generalization Model Selection Framework through Impurity and Randomness Measurements and a Bias Index
Authors: Todd Zhou, Mikhail Yurochkin
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Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is receiving increasing amounts of attention in the machine learning research community, boosted by recent technologies, such as autonomous driving and image processing. This newly-burgeoning field has called for the need for more effective and efficient methods for out-of-distribution generalization methods. Without accessing the label information, deploying machine learning models to out-of-distribution domains becomes extremely challenging since it is impossible to evaluate model performance on unseen domains. To tackle this out-of-distribution detection difficulty, we designed a model selection pipeline algorithm and developed a model selection framework with different impurity and randomness measurements to evaluate and choose the best-performing models for out-of-distribution data. By exploring different randomness scores based on predicted probabilities, we adopted the out-of-distribution entropy and developed a custom-designed score, ”CombinedScore,” as the evaluation criterion. This proposed score was created by adding labeled source information into the judging space of the uncertainty entropy score using harmonic mean. Furthermore, the prediction bias was explored through the equality of opportunity violation measurement. We also improved machine learning model performance through model calibration. The effectiveness of the framework with the proposed evaluation criteria was validated on the Folktables American Community Survey (ACS) datasets.Keywords: model selection, domain generalization, model fairness, randomness measurements, bias index
Procedia PDF Downloads 1189787 Management Accounting Techniques of Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange in Thailand
Authors: Prateep Wajeetongratana
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The objectives of the research were to examine that how management accounting techniques were perceived and used by companies listed on the stock exchange and to investigate similarities or differences of management accounting practices between companies listed on the stock exchange and Thai SMEs. Descriptive and inferential statistics were employed. The finding found that almost all of the companies used traditional management accounting techniques more than advanced management accounting techniques. Four management accounting techniques having no significant association with business characteristic were standard costing, job order costing, process costing. The barriers that Thai SMEs encountered were a lack of proper accounting system and the insufficient knowledge in management accounting of the accountants. The comparison results revealed that both companies listed on the stock exchange and Thai SMEs used traditional management accounting techniques more than advanced techniques.Keywords: companies listed on the stock exchange, financial budget, management accounting, operating budget
Procedia PDF Downloads 3769786 Ambivalence as Ethical Practice: Methodologies to Address Noise, Bias in Care, and Contact Evaluations
Authors: Anthony Townsend, Robyn Fasser
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While complete objectivity is a desirable scientific position from which to conduct a care and contact evaluation (CCE), it is precisely the recognition that we are inherently incapable of operating objectively that is the foundation of ethical practice and skilled assessment. Drawing upon recent research from Daniel Kahneman (2021) on the differences between noise and bias, as well as different inherent biases collectively termed “The Elephant in the Brain” by Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson (2019) from Oxford University, this presentation addresses both the various ways in which our judgments, perceptions and even procedures can be distorted and contaminated while conducting a CCE, but also considers the value of second order cybernetics and the psychodynamic concept of ‘ambivalence’ as a conceptual basis to inform our assessment methodologies to limit such errors or at least better identify them. Both a conceptual framework for ambivalence, our higher-order capacity to allow for the convergence and consideration of multiple emotional experiences and cognitive perceptions to inform our reasoning, and a practical methodology for assessment relying on data triangulation, Bayesian inference and hypothesis testing is presented as a means of promoting ethical practice for health care professionals conducting CCEs. An emphasis on widening awareness and perspective, limiting ‘splitting’, is demonstrated both in how this form of emotional processing plays out in alienating dynamics in families as well as the assessment thereof. In addressing this concept, this presentation aims to illuminate the value of ambivalence as foundational to ethical practice for assessors.Keywords: ambivalence, forensic, psychology, noise, bias, ethics
Procedia PDF Downloads 839785 Active Vibration Reduction for a Flexible Structure Bonded with Sensor/Actuator Pairs on Efficient Locations Using a Developed Methodology
Authors: Ali H. Daraji, Jack M. Hale, Ye Jianqiao
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With the extensive use of high specific strength structures to optimise the loading capacity and material cost in aerospace and most engineering applications, much effort has been expended to develop intelligent structures for active vibration reduction and structural health monitoring. These structures are highly flexible, inherently low internal damping and associated with large vibration and long decay time. The modification of such structures by adding lightweight piezoelectric sensors and actuators at efficient locations integrated with an optimal control scheme is considered an effective solution for structural vibration monitoring and controlling. The size and location of sensor and actuator are important research topics to investigate their effects on the level of vibration detection and reduction and the amount of energy provided by a controller. Several methodologies have been presented to determine the optimal location of a limited number of sensors and actuators for small-scale structures. However, these studies have tackled this problem directly, measuring the fitness function based on eigenvalues and eigenvectors achieved with numerous combinations of sensor/actuator pair locations and converging on an optimal set using heuristic optimisation techniques such as the genetic algorithms. This is computationally expensive for small- and large-scale structures subject to optimise a number of s/a pairs to suppress multiple vibration modes. This paper proposes an efficient method to determine optimal locations for a limited number of sensor/actuator pairs for active vibration reduction of a flexible structure based on finite element method and Hamilton’s principle. The current work takes the simplified approach of modelling a structure with sensors at all locations, subjecting it to an external force to excite the various modes of interest and noting the locations of sensors giving the largest average percentage sensors effectiveness measured by dividing all sensor output voltage over the maximum for each mode. The methodology was implemented for a cantilever plate under external force excitation to find the optimal distribution of six sensor/actuator pairs to suppress the first six modes of vibration. It is shown that the results of the optimal sensor locations give good agreement with published optimal locations, but with very much reduced computational effort and higher effectiveness. Furthermore, it is shown that collocated sensor/actuator pairs placed in these locations give very effective active vibration reduction using optimal linear quadratic control scheme.Keywords: optimisation, plate, sensor effectiveness, vibration control
Procedia PDF Downloads 2249784 Ta-DAH: Task Driven Automated Hardware Design of Free-Flying Space Robots
Authors: Lucy Jackson, Celyn Walters, Steve Eckersley, Mini Rai, Simon Hadfield
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Space robots will play an integral part in exploring the universe and beyond. A correctly designed space robot will facilitate OOA, satellite servicing and ADR. However, problems arise when trying to design such a system as it is a highly complex multidimensional problem into which there is little research. Current design techniques are slow and specific to terrestrial manipulators. This paper presents a solution to the slow speed of robotic hardware design, and generalizes the technique to free-flying space robots. It presents Ta-DAH Design, an automated design approach that utilises a multi-objective cost function in an iterative and automated pipeline. The design approach leverages prior knowledge and facilitates the faster output of optimal designs. The result is a system that can optimise the size of the base spacecraft, manipulator and some key subsystems for any given task. Presented in this work is the methodology behind Ta-DAH Design and a number optimal space robot designs.Keywords: space robots, automated design, on-orbit operations, hardware design
Procedia PDF Downloads 669783 A Polynomial Time Clustering Algorithm for Solving the Assignment Problem in the Vehicle Routing Problem
Authors: Lydia Wahid, Mona F. Ahmed, Nevin Darwish
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The vehicle routing problem (VRP) consists of a group of customers that needs to be served. Each customer has a certain demand of goods. A central depot having a fleet of vehicles is responsible for supplying the customers with their demands. The problem is composed of two subproblems: The first subproblem is an assignment problem where the number of vehicles that will be used as well as the customers assigned to each vehicle are determined. The second subproblem is the routing problem in which for each vehicle having a number of customers assigned to it, the order of visits of the customers is determined. Optimal number of vehicles, as well as optimal total distance, should be achieved. In this paper, an approach for solving the first subproblem (the assignment problem) is presented. In the approach, a clustering algorithm is proposed for finding the optimal number of vehicles by grouping the customers into clusters where each cluster is visited by one vehicle. Finding the optimal number of clusters is NP-hard. This work presents a polynomial time clustering algorithm for finding the optimal number of clusters and solving the assignment problem.Keywords: vehicle routing problems, clustering algorithms, Clarke and Wright Saving Method, agglomerative hierarchical clustering
Procedia PDF Downloads 3899782 Optimal Path Motion of Positional Electric Drive
Authors: M. A. Grigoryev, A. N. Shishkov, N. V. Savosteenko
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The article identifies optimal path motion of positional electric drive, for example, the feed of cold pilgering mill. It is shown that triangle is the optimum shape of the speed curve, and the ratio of its sides depends on the type of load diagram, in particular from the influence of the main drive of pilgering mill, and is not dependent on the presence of backlash and elasticity in the system. This thesis is proved analytically, and confirmed the results are obtained by a mathematical model that take into account the influence of the main drive-to-drive feed. By statistical analysis of oscillograph traces obtained on the real object allowed to give recommendations on the optimal control of the electric drive feed cold pilgering mill 450. Based on the data that the load torque depends on by hit the pipe in rolls of pilgering mill, occurs in the interval (0,6…0,75) tc, the recommended ratio of start time to the braking time is 2:1. Optimized path motion allowed get up to 25% more RMS torque for the cycle that allowed increased the productivity of the mill.Keywords: optimal curve speed, positional electric drive, cold pilgering mill 450, optimal path motion
Procedia PDF Downloads 3139781 A Study on the Etching Characteristics of High aspect ratio Oxide Etching Using C4F6 Plasma in Inductively Coupled Plasma with Low Frequency Bias
Authors: ByungJun Woo
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In this study, high-aspect-ratio (HAR) oxide etching characteristics in inductively coupled plasma were investigated using low frequency (2 MHz) bias power with C4F6 gas. An experiment was conducted using CF4/C4F6/He as the mixed gas. A 100 nm (etch area)/500 nm (mask area) line patterns were used, and the etch cross-section and etch selectivity of the amorphous carbon layer thin film were derived using a scanning electron microscope. Ion density was extracted using a double Langmuir probe, and CFx and F neutral species were observed via optical emission spectroscopy. Based on these results, the possibility for HAR oxide etching using C4F6 gas chemistry was suggested in this work. These etching results also indicate that the use of C4F6 gas can significantly contribute to the development of next-generation HAR oxide etching.Keywords: plasma, etching, C4F6, high aspect ratio, inductively coupled plasma
Procedia PDF Downloads 629780 Licensing in a Hotelling Model with Quadratic Transportation Costs
Authors: Fehmi Bouguezzi
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This paper studies optimal licensing regimes in a linear Hotelling model where firms are located at the end points of the city and where the transportation cost is not linear but quadratic. We study for that a more general cost function and we try to compare the findings with the results of the linear cost. We find the same optimal licensing regimes. A per unit royalty is optimal when innovation is not drastic and no licensing is better when innovation is drastic. We also find that no licensing is always better than fixed fee licensing.Keywords: Hotelling model, technology transfer, patent licensing, quadratic transportation cost
Procedia PDF Downloads 3449779 Convergence Analysis of a Gibbs Sampling Based Mix Design Optimization Approach for High Compressive Strength Pervious Concrete
Authors: Jiaqi Huang, Lu Jin
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Pervious concrete features with high water permeability rate. However, due to the lack of fine aggregates, the compressive strength is usually lower than other conventional concrete products. Optimization of pervious concrete mix design has long been recognized as an effective mechanism to achieve high compressive strength while maintaining desired permeability rate. In this paper, a Gibbs Sampling based algorithm is proposed to approximate the optimal mix design to achieve a high compressive strength of pervious concrete. We prove that the proposed algorithm efficiently converges to the set of global optimal solutions. The convergence rate and accuracy depend on a control parameter employed in the proposed algorithm. The simulation results show that, by using the proposed approach, the system converges to the optimal solution quickly and the derived optimal mix design achieves the maximum compressive strength while maintaining the desired permeability rate.Keywords: convergence, Gibbs Sampling, high compressive strength, optimal mix design, pervious concrete
Procedia PDF Downloads 1739778 System for the Detecting of Fake Profiles on Online Social Networks Using Machine Learning and the Bio-Inspired Algorithms
Authors: Sekkal Nawel, Mahammed Nadir
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The proliferation of online activities on Online Social Networks (OSNs) has captured significant user attention. However, this growth has been hindered by the emergence of fraudulent accounts that do not represent real individuals and violate privacy regulations within social network communities. Consequently, it is imperative to identify and remove these profiles to enhance the security of OSN users. In recent years, researchers have turned to machine learning (ML) to develop strategies and methods to tackle this issue. Numerous studies have been conducted in this field to compare various ML-based techniques. However, the existing literature still lacks a comprehensive examination, especially considering different OSN platforms. Additionally, the utilization of bio-inspired algorithms has been largely overlooked. Our study conducts an extensive comparison analysis of various fake profile detection techniques in online social networks. The results of our study indicate that supervised models, along with other machine learning techniques, as well as unsupervised models, are effective for detecting false profiles in social media. To achieve optimal results, we have incorporated six bio-inspired algorithms to enhance the performance of fake profile identification results.Keywords: machine learning, bio-inspired algorithm, detection, fake profile, system, social network
Procedia PDF Downloads 629777 Climate Change in Awash River Basin of Ethiopia: A Projection Study Using Global and Regional Climate Model Simulations
Authors: Mahtsente Tadese, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech
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The aim of this study was to project and analyze climate change in the Awash River Basin (ARB) using bias-corrected Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. The analysis included a baseline period from 1986-2005 and two future scenarios (the 2050s and 2070s) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Bias correction methods were evaluated using graphical and statistical methods. Following the evaluation of bias correction methods, the Distribution Mapping (DM) and Power Transformation (PT) were used for temperature and precipitation projection, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4 simulations showed an increase in precipitation during half of the months with 32 and 10%, respectively. Moreover, the 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a decrease in precipitation with 18 and 26%, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a significant decrease in precipitation in four of the months (February/March to May) with the highest decreasing rate of 34.7%. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4.5 simulation showed an increase of 0.48-2.6 °C in maximum temperature. In the case of RCP8.5, the increase rate reached 3.4 °C and 4.1 °C in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. The changes in precipitation and temperature might worsen the water stress, flood, and drought in ARB. Moreover, the critical focus should be given to mitigation strategies and management options to reduce the negative impact. The findings of this study provide valuable information on future precipitation and temperature change in ARB, which will help in the planning and design of sustainable mitigation approaches in the basin.Keywords: variability, climate change, Awash River Basin, precipitation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1689776 Cutting Plane Methods for Integer Programming: NAZ Cut and Its Variations
Authors: A. Bari
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Integer programming is a branch of mathematical programming techniques in operations research in which some or all of the variables are required to be integer valued. Various cuts have been used to solve these problems. We have also developed cuts known as NAZ cut & A-T cut to solve the integer programming problems. These cuts are used to reduce the feasible region and then reaching the optimal solution in minimum number of steps.Keywords: Integer Programming, NAZ cut, A-T cut, Cutting plane method
Procedia PDF Downloads 3599775 Optimal Tracking Control of a Hydroelectric Power Plant Incorporating Neural Forecasting for Uncertain Input Disturbances
Authors: Marlene Perez Villalpando, Kelly Joel Gurubel Tun
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In this paper, we propose an optimal control strategy for a hydroelectric power plant subject to input disturbances like meteorological phenomena. The engineering characteristics of the system are described by a nonlinear model. The random availability of renewable sources is predicted by a high-order neural network trained with an extended Kalman filter, whereas the power generation is regulated by the optimal control law. The main advantage of the system is the stabilization of the amount of power generated in the plant. A control supervisor maintains stability and availability in hydropower reservoirs water levels for power generation. The proposed approach demonstrated a good performance to stabilize the reservoir level and the power generation along their desired trajectories in the presence of disturbances.Keywords: hydropower, high order neural network, Kalman filter, optimal control
Procedia PDF Downloads 2929774 Iron Supplementation for Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized-Controlled Trials
Authors: Matthew Cameron, Stephen Yang, Latifa Al Kharusi, Adam Gosselin, Anissa Chirico, Pouya Gholipour Baradari
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Background: Iron supplementation has been evaluated in several randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the potential to increase baseline hemoglobin and decrease the incidence of red blood cell (RBC) transfusion during cardiac surgery. This study's main objective was to evaluate the evidence for iron administration in cardiac surgery patients for its effect on the incidence of perioperative RBC transfusion. Methods: This systematic review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020161927) on Dec. 19th, 2019, and was prepared as per the PRISMA guidelines. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, Web of Science databases, and Google Scholar were searched for RCTs evaluating perioperative iron administration in adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Each abstract was independently reviewed by two reviewers using predefined eligibility criteria. The primary outcome was perioperative RBC transfusion, with secondary outcomes of the number of RBC units transfused, change in ferritin level, reticulocyte count, hemoglobin, and adverse events, after iron administration. The risk of bias was assessed with the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias Tool, and the primary and secondary outcomes were analyzed with a random-effects model. Results: Out of 1556 citations reviewed, five studies (n = 554 patients) met the inclusion criteria. The use of iron demonstrated no difference in transfusion incidence (RR 0.86; 95% CI 0.65 to 1.13). There was a low heterogeneity between studies (I²=0%). The trial sequential analysis suggested an optimal information size of 1132 participants, which the accrued information size did not reach. Conclusion: The current literature does not support the routine use of iron supplementation before cardiac surgery; however, insufficient data is available to draw a definite conclusion. A critical knowledge gap has been identified, and more robust RCTs are required on this topic.Keywords: cardiac surgery, iron, iron supplementation, perioperative medicine, meta-analysis, systematic review, randomized controlled trial
Procedia PDF Downloads 1229773 Reuse of Historic Buildings for Tourism: Policy Gaps
Authors: Joseph Falzon, Margaret Nelson
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Background: Regeneration and re-use of abandoned historic buildings present a continuous challenge for policy makers and stakeholders in the tourism and leisure industry. Obsolete historic buildings provide great potential for tourism and leisure accommodation, presenting unique heritage experiences to travellers and host communities. Contemporary demands in the hospitality industry continuously require higher standards, some of which are in conflict with heritage conservation principles. Objective: The aim of this research paper is to critically discuss regeneration policies with stakeholders of the tourism and leisure industry and to examine current practices in policy development and the resultant impact of policies on the Maltese tourism and leisure industry. Research Design: Six semi-structured interviews with stakeholders involved in the tourism and leisure industry participated in the research. A number of measures were taken to reduce bias and thus improve trustworthiness. Clear statements of the purpose of the research study were provided at the start of each interview to reduce expectancy bias. The interviews were semi-structured to minimise interviewer bias. Interviewees were allowed to expand and elaborate as necessary, with only necessary probing questions, to allow free expression of opinion and practices. Interview guide was submitted to participants at least two weeks before the interview to allow participants to prepare for the interview and prevent recall bias during the interview as much as possible. Interview questions and probes contained both positive and negative aspects to prevent interviewer bias. Policy documents were available during the interview to prevent recall bias. Interview recordings were transcribed ‘intelligent’ verbatim. Analysis was carried out using thematic analysis with the coding frame developed independently by two researchers. All phases of the study were governed by research ethics. Findings: Findings were grouped in main themes: financing of regeneration, governance, legislation and policies. Other key issues included value of historic buildings and approaches for regeneration. Whist regeneration of historic buildings was noted, participants discussed a number of barriers that hindered regeneration. Stakeholders identified gaps in policies and gaps at policy implementation stages. European Union funding policies facilitated regeneration initiatives but funding criteria based on economic deliverables presented the intangible heritage gap. Stakeholders identified niche markets for heritage tourism accommodation. Lack of research-based policies was also identified. Conclusion: Potential of regeneration is hindered by inadequate legal framework that supports contemporary needs of the tourism industry. Policies should be developed by active stakeholder participation. Adequate funding schemes have to support the tangible and intangible components of the built heritage.Keywords: governance, historic buildings, policy, tourism
Procedia PDF Downloads 2299772 A Study on the New Weapon Requirements Analytics Using Simulations and Big Data
Authors: Won Il Jung, Gene Lee, Luis Rabelo
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Since many weapon systems are getting more complex and diverse, various problems occur in terms of the acquisition cost, time, and performance limitation. As a matter of fact, the experiment execution in real world is costly, dangerous, and time-consuming to obtain Required Operational Characteristics (ROC) for a new weapon acquisition although enhancing the fidelity of experiment results. Also, until presently most of the research contained a large amount of assumptions so therefore a bias is present in the experiment results. At this moment, the new methodology is proposed to solve these problems without a variety of assumptions. ROC of the new weapon system is developed through the new methodology, which is a way to analyze big data generated by simulating various scenarios based on virtual and constructive models which are involving 6 Degrees of Freedom (6DoF). The new methodology enables us to identify unbiased ROC on new weapons by reducing assumptions and provide support in terms of the optimal weapon systems acquisition.Keywords: big data, required operational characteristics (ROC), virtual and constructive models, weapon acquisition
Procedia PDF Downloads 2859771 Optimal Power Exchange of Multi-Microgrids with Hierarchical Coordination
Authors: Beom-Ryeol Choi, Won-Poong Lee, Jin-Young Choi, Young-Hak Shin, Dong-Jun Won
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A Microgrid (MG) has a major role in power system. There are numerous benefits, such as ability to reduce environmental impact and enhance the reliability of a power system. Hence, Multi-MG (MMG) consisted of multiple MGs is being studied intensively. This paper proposes the optimal power exchange of MMG with hierarchical coordination. The whole system architecture consists of two layers: 1) upper layer including MG of MG Center (MoMC) which is in charge of the overall management and coordination and 2) lower layer comprised of several Microgrid-Energy Management Systems (MG-EMSs) which make a decision for own schedule. In order to accomplish the optimal power exchange, the proposed coordination algorithm is applied to MMG system. The objective of this process is to achieve optimal operation for improving economics under the grid-connected operation. The simulation results show how the output of each MG can be changed through coordination algorithm.Keywords: microgrids, multi-microgrids, power exchange, hierarchical coordination
Procedia PDF Downloads 3689770 Cell Elevator: A Novel Technique for Cell Sorting and Circulating Tumor Cell Detection and Discrimination
Authors: Kevin Zhao, Norman J. Horing
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A methodology for cells sorting and circulating tumor cell detection and discrimination is presented in this paper. The technique is based on Dielectrophoresis and microfluidic device theory. Specifically, the sorting of the cells is realized by adjusting the relation among the sedimentation forces, the drag force provided by the fluid, and the Dielectrophortic force that is relevant to the bias voltage applied on the device. The relation leads to manipulation of the elevation of the cells of the same kind to a height by controlling the bias voltage. Once the cells have been lifted to a position next to the bottom of the cell collection channel, the buffer fluid flashes them into the cell collection channel. Repeated elevation of the cells leads to a complete sorting of the cells in the sample chamber. A proof-of-principle example is presented which verifies the feasibility of the methodology.Keywords: cell sorter, CTC cell, detection and discrimination, dielectrophoresisords, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 4249769 Optimal-Based Structural Vibration Attenuation Using Nonlinear Tuned Vibration Absorbers
Authors: Pawel Martynowicz
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Vibrations are a crucial problem for slender structures such as towers, masts, chimneys, wind turbines, bridges, high buildings, etc., that is why most of them are equipped with vibration attenuation or fatigue reduction solutions. In this work, a slender structure (i.e., wind turbine tower-nacelle model) equipped with nonlinear, semiactive tuned vibration absorber(s) is analyzed. For this study purposes, magnetorheological (MR) dampers are used as semiactive actuators. Several optimal-based approaches to structural vibration attenuation are investigated against the standard ‘ground-hook’ law and passive tuned vibration absorber(s) implementations. The common approach to optimal control of nonlinear systems is offline computation of the optimal solution, however, so determined open loop control suffers from lack of robustness to uncertainties (e.g., unmodelled dynamics, perturbations of external forces or initial conditions), and thus perturbation control techniques are often used. However, proper linearization may be an issue for highly nonlinear systems with implicit relations between state, co-state, and control. The main contribution of the author is the development as well as numerical and experimental verification of the Pontriagin maximum-principle-based vibration control concepts that produce directly actuator control input (not the demanded force), thus force tracking algorithm that results in control inaccuracy is entirely omitted. These concepts, including one-step optimal control, quasi-optimal control, and optimal-based modified ‘ground-hook’ law, can be directly implemented in online and real-time feedback control for periodic (or semi-periodic) disturbances with invariant or time-varying parameters, as well as for non-periodic, transient or random disturbances, what is a limitation for some other known solutions. No offline calculation, excitations/disturbances assumption or vibration frequency determination is necessary, moreover, all of the nonlinear actuator (MR damper) force constraints, i.e., no active forces, lower and upper saturation limits, hysteresis-type dynamics, etc., are embedded in the control technique, thus the solution is optimal or suboptimal for the assumed actuator, respecting its limitations. Depending on the selected method variant, a moderate or decisive reduction in the computational load is possible compared to other methods of nonlinear optimal control, while assuring the quality and robustness of the vibration reduction system, as well as considering multi-pronged operational aspects, such as possible minimization of the amplitude of the deflection and acceleration of the vibrating structure, its potential and/or kinetic energy, required actuator force, control input (e.g. electric current in the MR damper coil) and/or stroke amplitude. The developed solutions are characterized by high vibration reduction efficiency – the obtained maximum values of the dynamic amplification factor are close to 2.0, while for the best of the passive systems, these values exceed 3.5.Keywords: magnetorheological damper, nonlinear tuned vibration absorber, optimal control, real-time structural vibration attenuation, wind turbines
Procedia PDF Downloads 1199768 Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Selected European Countries Using Smoothing Methods
Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk
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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate
Procedia PDF Downloads 365