Search results for: causal analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 27211

Search results for: causal analysis

27061 The Effect of Taxpayer Political Beliefs on Tax Evasion Behavior: An Empirical Study Applied to Tunisian Case

Authors: Nadia Elouaer

Abstract:

Tax revenue is the main state resource and one of the important variables in tax policy. Nevertheless, this resource is continually decreasing, so it is important to focus on the reasons for this decline. Several studies show that the taxpayer is reluctant to pay taxes, especially in countries at risk or in countries in transition, including Tunisia. This study focuses on the tax evasion behavior of a Tunisian taxpayer under the influence of his political beliefs, as well as the influence of different tax compliance variables. Using a questionnaire, a sample of 500 Tunisian taxpayers is used to examine the relationship between political beliefs and taxpayer affiliations and tax compliance variables, as well as the study of the causal link between political beliefs and fraudulent behavior. The data were examined using correlation, factor, and regression analysis and found a positive and statistically significant relationship between the different tax compliance variables and the tax evasion behavior. There is also a positive and statistically significant relationship between tax evasion and political beliefs and affiliations. The study of the relationship between political beliefs and compliance variables shows that they are closely related. The conclusion is to admit that tax evasion and political beliefs are closely linked, and the government should update its tax policy and modernize its administration in order to strengthen the credibility and disclosure of information in order to restore a relationship of trust between public authorities and the taxpayer.

Keywords: fiscal policy, political beliefs, tax evasion, taxpayer behavior

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27060 Ethnic Xenophobia as Symbolic Politics: An Explanation of Anti-Migrant Activity from Brussels to Beirut

Authors: Annamarie Rannou, Horace Bartilow

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Global concerns about xenophobic activity are on the rise across developed and developing countries. And yet, social science scholarship has almost exclusively examined xenophobia as a prejudice of advanced western nations. This research argues that the fields of study related to xenophobia must be re-conceptualized within a framework of ethnicity in order to level the playing field for cross-regional inquiry. This study develops a new concept of ethnic xenophobia and integrates existing explanations of anti-migrant expression into theories of ethnic threat. We argue specifically that political elites convert economic, political, and social threats at the national level into ethnic xenophobic activity in order to gain or maintain political advantage among their native selectorate. We expand on Stuart Kaufman’s theory of symbolic politics to underscore the methods of mobilization used against migrants and the power of elite discourse in moments of national crises. An original dataset is used to examine over 35,000 cases of ethnic xenophobic activity targeting refugees. Wordscores software is used to develop a unique measure of anti-migrant elite rhetoric which captures the symbolic discourse of elites in their mobilization of ethnic xenophobic activism. We use a Structural Equation Model (SEM) to test the causal pathways of the theory across seventy-two developed and developing countries from 1990 to 2016. A framework of Most Different Systems Design (MDSD) is also applied to two pairs of developed-developing country cases, including Kenya and the Netherlands and Lebanon and the United States. This study sheds tremendous light on an underrepresented area of comparative research in migration studies. It shows that the causal elements of anti-migrant activity are far more similar than existing research suggests which has major implications for policy makers, practitioners, and academics in fields of migration protection and advocacy. It speaks directly to the mobilization of myths surrounding refugees, in particular, and the nationalization of narratives of migration that may be neutralized by the development of deeper associational relationships between natives and migrants.

Keywords: refugees, ethnicity, symbolic politics, elites, migration, comparative politics

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27059 Mining Diagnostic Investigation Process

Authors: Sohail Imran, Tariq Mahmood

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In complex healthcare diagnostic investigation process, medical practitioners have to focus on ways to standardize their processes to perform high quality care and optimize the time and costs. Process mining techniques can be applied to extract process related knowledge from data without considering causal and dynamic dependencies in business domain and processes. The application of process mining is effective in diagnostic investigation. It is very helpful where a treatment gives no dispositive evidence favoring it. In this paper, we applied process mining to discover important process flow of diagnostic investigation for hepatitis patients. This approach has some benefits which can enhance the quality and efficiency of diagnostic investigation processes.

Keywords: process mining, healthcare, diagnostic investigation process, process flow

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27058 Comparative Quantitative Study on Learning Outcomes of Major Study Groups of an Information and Communication Technology Bachelor Educational Program

Authors: Kari Björn, Mikael Soini

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Higher Education system reforms, especially Finnish system of Universities of Applied Sciences in 2014 are discussed. The new steering model is based on major legislative changes, output-oriented funding and open information. The governmental steering reform, especially the financial model and the resulting institutional level responses, such as a curriculum reforms are discussed, focusing especially in engineering programs. The paper is motivated by management need to establish objective steering-related performance indicators and to apply them consistently across all educational programs. The close relationship to governmental steering and funding model imply that internally derived indicators can be directly applied. Metropolia University of Applied Sciences (MUAS) as a case institution is briefly introduced, focusing on engineering education in Information and Communications Technology (ICT), and its related programs. The reform forced consolidation of previously separate smaller programs into fewer units of student application. New curriculum ICT students have a common first year before they apply for a Major. A framework of parallel and longitudinal comparisons is introduced and used across Majors in two campuses. The new externally introduced performance criteria are applied internally on ICT Majors using data ex-ante and ex-post of program merger.  A comparative performance of the Majors after completion of joint first year is established, focusing on previously omitted Majors for completeness of analysis. Some new research questions resulting from transfer of Majors between campuses and quota setting are discussed. Practical orientation identifies best practices to share or targets needing most attention for improvement. This level of analysis is directly applicable at student group and teaching team level, where corrective actions are possible, when identified. The analysis is quantitative and the nature of the corrective actions are not discussed. Causal relationships and factor analysis are omitted, because campuses, their staff and various pedagogical implementation details contain still too many undetermined factors for our limited data. Such qualitative analysis is left for further research. Further study must, however, be guided by the relevance of the observations.

Keywords: engineering education, integrated curriculum, learning outcomes, performance measurement

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27057 Effects of the Exit from Budget Support on Good Governance: Findings from Four Sub-Saharan Countries

Authors: Magdalena Orth, Gunnar Gotz

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Background: Domestic accountability, budget transparency and public financial management (PFM) are considered vital components of good governance in developing countries. The aid modality budget support (BS) promotes these governance functions in developing countries. BS engages in political decision-making and provides financial and technical support to poverty reduction strategies of the partner countries. Nevertheless, many donors have withdrawn their support from this modality due to cases of corruption, fraud or human rights violations. This exit from BS is leaving a finance and governance vacuum in the countries. The evaluation team analyzed the consequences of terminating the use of this modality and found particularly negative effects for good governance outcomes. Methodology: The evaluation uses a qualitative (theory-based) approach consisting of a comparative case study design, which is complemented by a process-tracing approach. For the case studies, the team conducted over 100 semi-structured interviews in Malawi, Uganda, Rwanda and Zambia and used four country-specific, tailor-made budget analysis. In combination with a previous DEval evaluation synthesis on the effects of BS, the team was able to create a before-and-after comparison that yields causal effects. Main Findings: In all four countries domestic accountability and budget transparency declined if other forms of pressure are not replacing BS´s mutual accountability mechanisms. In Malawi a fraud scandal created pressure from the society and from donors so that accountability was improved. In the other countries, these pressure mechanisms were absent so that domestic accountability declined. BS enables donors to actively participate in political processes of the partner country as donors transfer funds into the treasury of the partner country and conduct a high-level political dialogue. The results confirm that the exit from BS created a governance vacuum that, if not compensated through external/internal pressure, leads to a deterioration of good governance. For example, in the case of highly aid dependent Malawi did the possibility of a relaunch of BS provide sufficient incentives to push for governance reforms. Overall the results show that the three good governance areas are negatively affected by the exit from BS. This stands in contrast to positive effects found before the exit. The team concludes that the relationship is causal, because the before-and-after comparison coherently shows that the presence of BS correlates with positive effects and the absence with negative effects. Conclusion: These findings strongly suggest that BS is an effective modality to promote governance and its abolishment is likely to cause governance disruptions. Donors and partner governments should find ways to re-engage in closely coordinated policy-based aid modalities. In addition, a coordinated and carefully managed exit-strategy should be in place before an exit from similar modalities is considered. Particularly a continued framework of mutual accountability and a high-level political dialogue should be aspired to maintain pressure and oversight that is required to achieve good governance.

Keywords: budget support, domestic accountability, public financial management and budget transparency, Sub-Sahara Africa

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27056 Validity and Reliability of Lifestyle Measurement of the LSAS among Recurrent Stroke Patients in Selected Hospital, Central Java, Indonesia

Authors: Meida Laely Ramdani, Earmporn Thongkrajai, Dedy Purwito

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Lifestyle is one of the most important factors affecting health. Measurement of lifestyle behaviors is necessary for the identification of causal associations between unhealthy lifestyle and health outcomes. There was many instruments have been measured for lifestyle, but not specific for stroke recurrence. This study aimed to develop a new questionnaire of Lifestyle Adjustment Scale (LSAS) among recurrent stroke patients in Indonesia and to measure the reliability and validity of LSAS. The instrument consist of 33 items was developed from the responses of 30 recurrent stroke patients with the maximum age 60 years. Data was collected during October to November 2015. The properties of the instrument were evaluated by validity assessment and reliability measures. The content validity was judged adequate by a panel of five experts, with the result of I-CVI was 0.97. The Cronbach’s alpha analysis was carried out to measure the reliability of LSAS. The result showed that Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.819. LSAS were classified under the domains of dietary habit, smoking habit, physical activity, and stress management. The results of Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for each subscale were 0.60, 0.39, 0.67, 0.65 and 0.76 respectively. LSAS instrument was valid and reliable therefore can be used as research tool among recurrent stroke patients. The development of this questionnaire has been adapted to the socio-cultural context in Indonesia.

Keywords: LSAS, recurrent stroke patients, lifestyle, Indonesia

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27055 The Effects of a Mathematics Remedial Program on Mathematics Success and Achievement among Beginning Mathematics Major Students: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Authors: Kuixi Du, Thomas J. Lipscomb

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The proficiency in Mathematics skills is fundamental to success in the STEM disciplines. In the US, beginning college students who are placed in remedial/developmental Mathematics courses frequently struggle to achieve academic success. Therefore, Mathematics remediation in college has become an important concern, and providing Mathematics remediation is a prevalent way to help the students who may not be fully prepared for college-level courses. Programs vary, however, and the effectiveness of a particular remedial Mathematics program must be empirically demonstrated. The purpose of this study was to apply the sharp regression discontinuity (RD) technique to determine the effectiveness of the Jack Leaps Summer (JLS) Mathematic remediation program in supporting improved Mathematics learning outcomes among newly admitted Mathematics students in the South Dakota State University. The researchers studied the newly admitted Fall 2019 cohort of Mathematics majors (n=423). The results indicated that students whose pretest score was lower than the cut-off point and who were assigned to the JLS program experienced significantly higher scores on the post-test (Math 101 final score). Based on these results, there is evidence that the JLS program is effective in meeting its primary objective.

Keywords: causal inference, mathematisc remedial program evaluation, quasi-experimental research design, regression discontinuity design, cohort studies

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27054 Simscape Library for Large-Signal Physical Network Modeling of Inertial Microelectromechanical Devices

Authors: S. Srinivasan, E. Cretu

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The information flow (e.g. block-diagram or signal flow graph) paradigm for the design and simulation of Microelectromechanical (MEMS)-based systems allows to model MEMS devices using causal transfer functions easily, and interface them with electronic subsystems for fast system-level explorations of design alternatives and optimization. Nevertheless, the physical bi-directional coupling between different energy domains is not easily captured in causal signal flow modeling. Moreover, models of fundamental components acting as building blocks (e.g. gap-varying MEMS capacitor structures) depend not only on the component, but also on the specific excitation mode (e.g. voltage or charge-actuation). In contrast, the energy flow modeling paradigm in terms of generalized across-through variables offers an acausal perspective, separating clearly the physical model from the boundary conditions. This promotes reusability and the use of primitive physical models for assembling MEMS devices from primitive structures, based on the interconnection topology in generalized circuits. The physical modeling capabilities of Simscape have been used in the present work in order to develop a MEMS library containing parameterized fundamental building blocks (area and gap-varying MEMS capacitors, nonlinear springs, displacement stoppers, etc.) for the design, simulation and optimization of MEMS inertial sensors. The models capture both the nonlinear electromechanical interactions and geometrical nonlinearities and can be used for both small and large signal analyses, including the numerical computation of pull-in voltages (stability loss). Simscape behavioral modeling language was used for the implementation of reduced-order macro models, that present the advantage of a seamless interface with Simulink blocks, for creating hybrid information/energy flow system models. Test bench simulations of the library models compare favorably with both analytical results and with more in-depth finite element simulations performed in ANSYS. Separate MEMS-electronic integration tests were done on closed-loop MEMS accelerometers, where Simscape was used for modeling the MEMS device and Simulink for the electronic subsystem.

Keywords: across-through variables, electromechanical coupling, energy flow, information flow, Matlab/Simulink, MEMS, nonlinear, pull-in instability, reduced order macro models, Simscape

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27053 The Importance of Industrial Work Experience, Career Information, and Work Motivation to Increase Work Readiness

Authors: Nyaris Pambudiyatno, Asto Buditjahjanto, Eppy Yundra, Arie Wardhono, Eko Hariadi

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Vocational education is part of the national education system that is prepared to produce graduates who have the skills and knowledge according to the needs and requirements required by the job. Vocational Education is a secondary education that prepares students to work in a particular field. The purpose of this study was to analyze and find out the effect of industrial work practice experience and career information on work readiness through work motivation. This type of research is causal research with a quantitative approach. The population in this study was 359 cadets of Aviation Polytechnic Surabaya. While the number of samples calculates using slovin calculations obtained by 189 cadets of Surabaya Aviation Polytechnic. The type of data used is quantitative data with the primary data source. Data collection techniques are by distributing questionnaires. Analysis of this study is with Lisrel. The findings prove that: (1) Industrial Work Experience experience has a positive and significant effect on work motivation; (2) Industrial Work Experience has a positive and significant impact on work readiness; (3) Career information has a positive and significant effect on job readiness; (4) Career information has a positive and significant impact on job readiness; Dan (5) Work motivation has a positive and significant effect on work readiness.

Keywords: career information, increase work readiness, industrial work experience, work motivation

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27052 Whole Exome Sequencing Data Analysis of Rare Diseases: Non-Coding Variants and Copy Number Variations

Authors: S. Fahiminiya, J. Nadaf, F. Rauch, L. Jerome-Majewska, J. Majewski

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Background: Sequencing of protein coding regions of human genome (Whole Exome Sequencing; WES), has demonstrated a great success in the identification of causal mutations for several rare genetic disorders in human. Generally, most of WES studies have focused on rare variants in coding exons and splicing-sites where missense substitutions lead to the alternation of protein product. Although focusing on this category of variants has revealed the mystery behind many inherited genetic diseases in recent years, a subset of them remained still inconclusive. Here, we present the result of our WES studies where analyzing only rare variants in coding regions was not conclusive but further investigation revealed the involvement of non-coding variants and copy number variations (CNV) in etiology of the diseases. Methods: Whole exome sequencing was performed using our standard protocols at Genome Quebec Innovation Center, Montreal, Canada. All bioinformatics analyses were done using in-house WES pipeline. Results: To date, we successfully identified several disease causing mutations within gene coding regions (e.g. SCARF2: Van den Ende-Gupta syndrome and SNAP29: 22q11.2 deletion syndrome) by using WES. In addition, we showed that variants in non-coding regions and CNV have also important value and should not be ignored and/or filtered out along the way of bioinformatics analysis on WES data. For instance, in patients with osteogenesis imperfecta type V and in patients with glucocorticoid deficiency, we identified variants in 5'UTR, resulting in the production of longer or truncating non-functional proteins. Furthermore, CNVs were identified as the main cause of the diseases in patients with metaphyseal dysplasia with maxillary hypoplasia and brachydactyly and in patients with osteogenesis imperfecta type VII. Conclusions: Our study highlights the importance of considering non-coding variants and CNVs during interpretation of WES data, as they can be the only cause of disease under investigation.

Keywords: whole exome sequencing data, non-coding variants, copy number variations, rare diseases

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27051 Applications of Sulfur Nanoparticles: Synthesis and Characterizations

Authors: Sandeep K. Shukla, Roli Jain, Soumitra S. Pande, Archna Pandey

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Sulfur nanoparticles were prepared by different methods with different sizes and shapes. When the sulfur is present as nanoparticles they have many practical applications in our life. This research discusses sulfur nanoparticles synthesis, characterizations and applications. With dandruff being a common everyday problem and the market is loaded with antidandruff shampoos and such skin care products, it is obvious to assume resourceful research into this area would be both objective to present scenario and potentially lucrative. Nanoparticles are frequently in use in some very powerful antimicrobial, antifungal cosmetics nowadays, especially silver. To check its antidandruff activity, experiments have been conducted on Malassezia furfur the causal organism for seborrheaic dermatitis or dandruff, which have been cultured for such study in our lab.

Keywords: CTAB surfactant SEM, sulfur nanoparticles (S-NPs), XRD, polymeric surfactant

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27050 The Use of Social Stories and Digital Technology as Interventions for Autistic Children; A State-Of-The-Art Review and Qualitative Data Analysis

Authors: S. Hussain, C. Grieco, M. Brosnan

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Background and Aims: Autism is a complex neurobehavioural disorder, characterised by impairments in the development of language and communication skills. The study involved a state-of-art systematic review, in addition to qualitative data analysis, to establish the evidence for social stories as an intervention strategy for autistic children. An up-to-date review of the use of digital technologies in the delivery of interventions to autistic children was also carried out; to propose the efficacy of digital technologies and the use of social stories to improve intervention outcomes for autistic children. Methods: Two student researchers reviewed a range of randomised control trials and observational studies. The aim of the review was to establish if there was adequate evidence to justify recommending social stories to autistic patients. Students devised their own search strategies to be used across a range of search engines, including Ovid-Medline, Google Scholar and PubMed. Students then critically appraised the generated literature. Additionally, qualitative data obtained from a comprehensive online questionnaire on social stories was also thematically analysed. The thematic analysis was carried out independently by each researcher, using a ‘bottom-up’ approach, meaning contributors read and analysed responses to questions and devised semantic themes from reading the responses to a given question. The researchers then placed each response into a semantic theme or sub-theme. The students then joined to discuss the merging of their theme headings. The Inter-rater reliability (IRR) was calculated before and after theme headings were merged, giving IRR for pre- and post-discussion. Lastly, the thematic analysis was assessed by a third researcher, who is a professor of psychology and the director for the ‘Centre for Applied Autism Research’ at the University of Bath. Results: A review of the literature, as well as thematic analysis of qualitative data found supporting evidence for social story use. The thematic analysis uncovered some interesting themes from the questionnaire responses, relating to the reasons why social stories were used and the factors influencing their effectiveness in each case. However, overall, the evidence for digital technologies interventions was limited, and the literature could not prove a causal link between better intervention outcomes for autistic children and the use of technologies. However, they did offer valid proposed theories for the suitability of digital technologies for autistic children. Conclusions: Overall, the review concluded that there was adequate evidence to justify advising the use of social stories with autistic children. The role of digital technologies is clearly a fast-emerging field and appears to be a promising method of intervention for autistic children; however, it should not yet be considered an evidence-based approach. The students, using this research, developed ideas on social story interventions which aim to help autistic children.

Keywords: autistic children, digital technologies, intervention, social stories

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27049 A Causal Model for Environmental Design of Residential Community for Elderly Well-Being in Thailand

Authors: Porntip Ruengtam

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This article is an extension of previous research presenting the relevant factors related to environmental perceptions, residential community, and the design of a healing environment, which have effects on the well-being and requirements of Thai elderly. Research methodology began with observations and interviews in three case studies in terms of the management processes and environment design of similar existing projects in Thailand. The interview results were taken to summarize with related theories and literature. A questionnaire survey was designed for data collection to confirm the factors of requirements in a residential community intended for the Thai elderly. A structural equation model (SEM) was formulated to explain the cause-effect factors for the requirements of a residential community for Thai elderly. The research revealed that the requirements of a residential community for Thai elderly were classified into three groups when utilizing a technique for exploratory factor analysis. The factors were comprised of (1) requirements for general facilities and activities, (2) requirements for facilities related to health and security, and (3) requirements for facilities related to physical exercise in the residential community. The results from the SEM showed the background of elderly people had a direct effect on their requirements for a residential community from various aspects. The results should lead to the formulation of policies for design and management of residential communities for the elderly in order to enhance quality of life as well as both the physical and mental health of the Thai elderly.

Keywords: elderly, environmental design, residential community, structural equation modeling

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27048 Health Benefit and Mechanism from Green Open Space: A Pathway to Connect Health to Design and Planning

Authors: Ming Ma, Rui Li

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In the highly urbanized district, green open space is playing an important role in human’s health and wellbeing as a physical, aesthetic and natural environment resources. The aim of this paper is to close this gap through providing a comprehensive, qualitative meta-analysis of existing studies related to this issue. A systematic scoping of current quantitative research is conducted which mostly focused on cross-sectional survey and experimental studies. Health benefits from contact with green open space could be categorized into physical health, psychological health and social wellbeing. Mechanism for the health related to green open space could be clearly identified with the regard to natural restoration, physical activities and social capital. These results indicate a multiple pathways framework between the health benefits and mechanism. In order to support design and planning, the most evident relationship was picked up that people could psychologically benefit from green open space through outdoors physical activities. Additionally, three design and planning strategies are put forward. Various and multi-level contacts with green open space would be considered as an explanation of the pathway results and tie to bridge the health to design and planning. There is a need to carry out long-term research emphasizing on causal relationship between health and green open space through excluding cofounding factors such as self-selection.

Keywords: urban green open space, planning and design, health benefit, mechanism, pathway framework

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27047 The Comparison of Emotional Regulation Strategies and Psychological Symptoms in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis and Normal Individuals

Authors: Amir Salamatzade, Marhamet HematPour

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Due to the increasing importance of psychological factors in the incidence and exacerbation of chronic diseases such as multiple sclerosis, the aim of this study was to determine the difference between emotional regulation strategies and psychological symptoms in patients with multiple sclerosis and normal people. The research method was causal-comparative (post-event). The statistical population of this research included all patients with multiple sclerosis referred to the MS Association of Rasht in the first quarter of 2021, approximately 350 people. The study sample also included 120 people (60 patients with multiple sclerosis and 60 normal people) who were selected by the available sampling method and completed the emotional regulation and anxiety, depression, and stress Lavibund and Lavibund (1995) questionnaires. Data were analyzed using an independent t-test and multivariate variance analysis. The results showed that there was a significant difference between the mean of emotional regulation strategies and the components of emotional reassessment and emotional inhibition between the two groups of patients with multiple sclerosis and normal individuals (p < 0.01). There is a significant difference between the mean of psychological symptoms and the components of depression, anxiety, and stress in the two groups of patients with multiple sclerosis and normal individuals. (p < 0.01). Based on this, it can be concluded that patients with multiple sclerosis have lower levels of emotional regulation strategies and higher levels of psychological symptoms than normal individuals.

Keywords: emotional regulation strategies, psychological symptoms, multiple sclerosis, normal Individuals

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27046 Determining the Direction of Causality between Creating Innovation and Technology Market

Authors: Liubov Evstigneeva

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In this paper an attempt is made to establish causal nexuses between innovation and international trade in Russia. The topicality of this issue is determined by the necessity of choosing policy instruments for economic modernization and transition to innovative development. The vector auto regression (VAR) model and Granger test are applied for the Russian monthly data from 2005 until the second quartile of 2015. Both lagged import and export at the national level cause innovation, the latter starts to stimulate foreign trade since it is a remote lag. In comparison to aggregate data, the results by patent’s categories are more diverse. Importing technologies from foreign countries stimulates patent activity, while innovations created in Russia are only Granger causality for import to Commonwealth of Independent States.

Keywords: export, import, innovation, patents

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27045 Defects Estimation of Embedded Systems Components by a Bond Graph Approach

Authors: I. Gahlouz, A. Chellil

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The paper concerns the estimation of system components faults by using an unknown inputs observer. To reach this goal, we used the Bond Graph approach to physical modelling. We showed that this graphical tool is allowing the representation of system components faults as unknown inputs within the state representation of the considered physical system. The study of the causal and structural features of the system (controllability, observability, finite structure, and infinite structure) based on the Bond Graph approach was hence fulfilled in order to design an unknown inputs observer which is used for the system component fault estimation.

Keywords: estimation, bond graph, controllability, observability

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27044 Earnings Volatility and Earnings Predictability

Authors: Yosra Ben Mhamed

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Most previous research that investigates the importance of earnings volatility for a firm’s value has focused on the effects of earnings volatility on the cost of capital. Many study illustrate that earnings volatility can reduce the firm’s value by enhancing the cost of capital. However, a few recent studies directly examine the relation between earnings volatility and subsequent earnings levels. In our study, we further explore the role of volatility in forecasting. Our study makes two primary contributions to the literature. First, taking into account the level of current firm’s performance, we provide causal theory to the link between volatility and earnings predictability. Nevertheless, previous studies testing the linearity of this relationship have not mentioned any underlying theory. Secondly, our study contributes to the vast body of fundamental analysis research that identifies a set of variables that improve valuation, by showing that earnings volatility affects the estimation of future earnings. Projections of earnings are used by valuation research and practice to derive estimates of firm value. Since we want to examine the impact of volatility on earnings predictability, we sort the sample into three portfolios according to the level of their earnings volatility in ascending order. For each quintile, we present the predictability coefficient. In a second test, each of these portfolios is, then, sorted into three further quintiles based on their level of current earnings. These yield nine quintiles. So we can observe whether volatility strongly predicts decreases on earnings predictability only for highest quintile of earnings. In general, we find that earnings volatility has an inverse relationship with earnings predictability. Our results also show that the sensibility of earnings predictability to ex-ante volatility is more pronounced among profitability firms. The findings are most consistent with overinvestment and persistence explanations.

Keywords: earnings volatility, earnings predictability, earnings persistence, current profitability

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27043 Nudge Plus: Incorporating Reflection into Behavioural Public Policy

Authors: Sanchayan Banerjee, Peter John

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Nudge plus is a modification of the toolkit of behavioural public policy. It incorporates an element of reflection¾the plus¾into the delivery of a nudge, either blended in or made proximate. Nudge plus builds on recent work combining heuristics and deliberation. It may be used to design pro-social interventions that help preserve the autonomy of the agent. The argument turns on seminal work on dual systems, which presents a subtler relationship between fast and slow thinking than commonly assumed in the classic literature in behavioural public policy. We review classic and recent work on dual processes to show that a hybrid is more plausible than the default interventionist or parallel competitive framework. We define nudge plus, set out what reflection could entail, provide examples, outline causal mechanisms, and draw testable implications.

Keywords: nudge, nudge plus, think, dual process theory

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27042 Developing a Framework for Open Source Software Adoption in a Higher Education Institution in Uganda. A case of Kyambogo University

Authors: Kafeero Frank

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This study aimed at developing a frame work for open source software adoption in an institution of higher learning in Uganda, with the case of KIU as a study area. There were mainly four research questions based on; individual staff interaction with open source software forum, perceived FOSS characteristics, organizational characteristics and external characteristics as factors that affect open source software adoption. The researcher used causal-correlation research design to study effects of these variables on open source software adoption. A quantitative approach was used in this study with self-administered questionnaire on a purposively and randomly sampled sample of university ICT staff. Resultant data was analyzed using means, correlation coefficients and multivariate multiple regression analysis as statistical tools. The study reveals that individual staff interaction with open source software forum and perceived FOSS characteristics were the primary factors that significantly affect FOSS adoption while organizational and external factors were secondary with no significant effect but significant correlation to open source software adoption. It was concluded that for effective open source software adoption to occur there must be more effort on primary factors with subsequent reinforcement of secondary factors to fulfill the primary factors and adoption of open source software. Lastly recommendations were made in line with conclusions for coming up with Kyambogo University frame work for open source software adoption in institutions of higher learning. Areas of further research recommended include; Stakeholders’ analysis of open source software adoption in Uganda; Challenges and way forward. Evaluation of Kyambogo University frame work for open source software adoption in institutions of higher learning. Framework development for cloud computing adoption in Ugandan universities. Framework for FOSS development in Uganda IT industry

Keywords: open source software., organisational characteristics, external characteristics, cloud computing adoption

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27041 Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) Mapping in Extreme Heat Days Coupled with Air Pollution Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Technique: A Case Study of Amiens, France

Authors: Aiman Mazhar Qureshi, Ahmed Rachid

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Extreme heat events are emerging human environmental health concerns in dense urban areas due to anthropogenic activities. High spatial and temporal resolution heat maps are important for urban heat adaptation and mitigation, helping to indicate hotspots that are required for the attention of city planners. The Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) is the important approach used by decision-makers and urban planners to identify heat-vulnerable communities and areas that require heat stress mitigation strategies. Amiens is a medium-sized French city, where the average temperature has been increasing since the year 2000 by +1°C. Extreme heat events are recorded in the month of July for the last three consecutive years, 2018, 2019 and 2020. Poor air quality, especially ground-level ozone, has been observed mainly during the same hot period. In this study, we evaluated the HVI in Amiens during extreme heat days recorded last three years (2018,2019,2020). The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique is used for fine-scale vulnerability mapping. The main data we considered for this study to develop the HVI model are (a) socio-economic and demographic data; (b) Air pollution; (c) Land use and cover; (d) Elderly heat-illness; (e) socially vulnerable; (f) Remote sensing data (Land surface temperature (LST), mean elevation, NDVI and NDWI). The output maps identified the hot zones through comprehensive GIS analysis. The resultant map shows that high HVI exists in three typical areas: (1) where the population density is quite high and the vegetation cover is small (2) the artificial surfaces (built-in areas) (3) industrial zones that release thermal energy and ground-level ozone while those with low HVI are located in natural landscapes such as rivers and grasslands. The study also illustrates the system theory with a causal diagram after data analysis where anthropogenic activities and air pollution appear in correspondence with extreme heat events in the city. Our suggested index can be a useful tool to guide urban planners and municipalities, decision-makers and public health professionals in targeting areas at high risk of extreme heat and air pollution for future interventions adaptation and mitigation measures.

Keywords: heat vulnerability index, heat mapping, heat health-illness, remote sensing, urban heat mitigation

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27040 Rheumatoid Arthritis, Periodontitis and the Subgingival Microbiome: A Circular Relationship

Authors: Isabel Lopez-Oliva, Akshay Paropkari, Shweta Saraswat, Stefan Serban, Paola de Pablo, Karim Raza, Andrew Filer, Iain Chapple, Thomas Dietrich, Melissa Grant, Purnima Kumar

Abstract:

Objective: We aimed to explicate the role of the subgingival microbiome in the causal link between rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and periodontitis (PD). Methods: Subjects with/without RA and with/without PD were randomized for treatment with scaling and root planing (SRP) or oral hygiene instructions. Subgingival biofilm, gingival crevicular fluid, and serum were collected at baseline and at 3- and 6-months post-operatively. Correlations were generated between 72 million 16S rDNA sequences, immuno-inflammatory mediators, circulating antibodies to oral microbial antigens, serum inflammatory molecules, and clinical metrics of RA. The dynamics of inter-microbial and host-microbial interactions were modeled using differential network analysis. Results: RA superseded periodontitis as a determinant of microbial composition, and DAS28 score superseded the severity of periodontitis as a driver of microbial assemblages (p=0.001, ANOSIM). RA subjects evidenced higher serum anti-PPAD (p=0.0013), anti-Pg-enolase (p=0.0031), anti-RPP3, anti- Pg-OMP and anti- Pi-OMP (p=0.001) antibodies than non-RA controls (with and without periodontitis). Following SRP, bacterial networks anchored by IL-1b, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-13, MIP-1b, and PDGF-b underwent ≥5-fold higher rewiring; and serum antibodies to microbial antigens decreased significantly. Conclusions: Our data suggest a circular relationship between RA and PD, beginning with an RA-influenced dysbiosis within the healthy subgingival microbiome that leads to exaggerated local inflammation in periodontitis and circulating antibodies to periodontal pathogens and positive correlation between severity of periodontitis and RA activity. Periodontal therapy restores host-microbial homeostasis, reduces local inflammation, and decreases circulating microbial antigens. Our data highlights the importance of integrating periodontal care into the management of RA patients.

Keywords: rheumatoid arthritis, periodontal, subgingival, DNA sequence analysis, oral microbiome

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27039 Environmental Impact of Trade Sector Growth: Evidence from Tanzania

Authors: Mosses E. Lufuke

Abstract:

This paper attempted to investigate whether there is Granger-causality running from trade to environment as evidenced in the changing climatic condition and land degradation. Using Tanzania as the reference, VAR-Granger-causality test was employed to rationalize the conundrum of causal-effect relationship between trade and environment. The changing climatic condition, as the proxy of both nitrous oxide emissions (in thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent) and land degradation measured by the size of arable land were tested against trade using both exports and imports variables. The result indicated that neither of the trade variables Granger-cause the variability on gas emissions and arable land size. This suggests the possibility that all trade concerns in relation to environment to have been internalized in domestic policies to offset any likely negative consequence.

Keywords: environment, growth, impact, trade

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27038 The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Dynamics of Resistance to Sovereignty Violation: The Case of East Timor (1975-1999)

Authors: Laura Southgate

Abstract:

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as much of the scholarship on the organisation, celebrates its ability to uphold the principle of regional autonomy, understood as upholding the norm of non-intervention by external powers in regional affairs. Yet, in practice, this has been repeatedly violated. This dichotomy between rhetoric and practice suggests an interesting avenue for further study. The East Timor crisis (1975-1999) has been selected as a case-study to test the dynamics of ASEAN state resistance to sovereignty violation in two distinct timeframes: Indonesia’s initial invasion of the territory in 1975, and the ensuing humanitarian crisis in 1999 which resulted in a UN-mandated, Australian-led peacekeeping intervention force. These time-periods demonstrate variation on the dependent variable. It is necessary to observe covariation in order to derive observations in support of a causal theory. To establish covariation, my independent variable is therefore a continuous variable characterised by variation in convergence of interest. Change of this variable should change the value of the dependent variable, thus establishing causal direction. This paper investigates the history of ASEAN’s relationship to the norm of non-intervention. It offers an alternative understanding of ASEAN’s history, written in terms of the relationship between a key ASEAN state, which I call a ‘vanguard state’, and selected external powers. This paper will consider when ASEAN resistance to sovereignty violation has succeeded, and when it has failed. It will contend that variation in outcomes associated with vanguard state resistance to sovereignty violation can be best explained by levels of interest convergence between the ASEAN vanguard state and designated external actors. Evidence will be provided to support the hypothesis that in 1999, ASEAN’s failure to resist violations to the sovereignty of Indonesia was a consequence of low interest convergence between Indonesia and the external powers. Conversely, in 1975, ASEAN’s ability to resist violations to the sovereignty of Indonesia was a consequence of high interest convergence between Indonesia and the external powers. As the vanguard state, Indonesia was able to apply pressure on the ASEAN states and obtain unanimous support for Indonesia’s East Timor policy in 1975 and 1999. However, the key factor explaining the variance in outcomes in both time periods resides in the critical role played by external actors. This view represents a serious challenge to much of the existing scholarship that emphasises ASEAN’s ability to defend regional autonomy. As these cases attempt to show, ASEAN autonomy is much more contingent than portrayed in the existing literature.

Keywords: ASEAN, east timor, intervention, sovereignty

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27037 The Fragility of Sense: The Twofold Temporality of Embodiment and Its Role for Depression

Authors: Laura Bickel

Abstract:

This paper aims to investigate to what extent Merleau-Ponty’s philosophy of body memory serves as a viable resource for the enactive approach to cognitive science and its first-person experience-based research on ‘recurrent depressive disorder’ coded F33 in ICD-10. In pursuit of this goal, the analysis begins by revisiting the neuroreductive paradigm. This paradigm serves biological psychiatry to explain the condition of vital contact in terms of underlying neurophysiological mechanisms. It is demonstrated that the neuroreductive model cannot sufficiently account for the depressed person’s episodical withdrawal in causal terms. The analysis of the irregular loss of vital resonance requires integrating the body as the subject of experience and its phenomenological time. Then, it is shown that the enactive approach to depression as disordered sense-making is a promising alternative. The enactive model of perception implies that living beings do not register pre-existing meaning ‘out there’ but unfold ‘sense’ in their action-oriented response to the world. For the enactive approach, Husserl’s passive synthesis of inner time consciousness is fundamental for what becomes perceptually present for action. It seems intuitive to bring together the enactive approach to depression with the long-standing view in phenomenological psychopathology that explains the loss of vital contact by appealing to the disruption of the temporal structure of consciousness. However, this paper argues that the disruption of the temporal structure is not justified conceptually. Instead, one may integrate Merleau-Ponty’s concept of the past as the unconscious into the enactive approach to depression. From this perspective, the living being’s experiential and biological past inserts itself in the form of habit and bodily skills and ensures action-oriented responses to the environment. Finally, it is concluded that the depressed person’s withdrawal indicates the impairment of this application process. The person suffering from F33 cannot actualize sedimented meaning to respond to the valences and tasks of a given situation.

Keywords: depression, enactivism, neuroreductionsim, phenomenology, temporality

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27036 Simultaneous Relationship among Strategic Corporate Social Responsibility, Corporate Governance, and Firm Performance: Evidence from Indonesia

Authors: Ayu Diar Sari, Sidharta Utama

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to examine the empirical association among strategic corporate social responsibility (Strategic CSR), corporate governance (CG), and firm performance by investigating their causal effects. In order to get the comprehensive result, this study uses CSR variables which consist of Strategic CSR, Non-Strategic CSR and CSR as a whole. Exerting the two stage least square (2SLS) method, the result showed that CG mechanism positively influences CSR, Non-Strategic CSR, and firm performance (both ROA and PBV). CSR and Non-Strategic CSR positively influence ROA. Meanwhile CSR, Strategic and Non-Strategic CSR positively influence PBV. Firm’s Strategic CSR engagement plays a significantly positive role in enhancing PBV. The results supported the social impact hypothesis, agency theory, and conflict resolution theory.

Keywords: corporate financial performance, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, strategic corporate social responsibility

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27035 Externalizing Behavior Problems Influencing Social Behavior in Early Adolescence

Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

Abstract:

This study focuses on early adolescent externalizing behavioral problems which specifically concentrate on rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior using the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose was to analyze the relationships between the externalizing behavioral problems and relevant background variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 1975 participants. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior. Further, a hierarchical modeling method was used to explore the causal relations among background variables, breaking behavior variables and aggressive behavior variables.

Keywords: aggressive behavior, breaking behavior, early adolescence, externalizing problem

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27034 How Social Capital Mediates the Relationships between Interpersonal Interaction and Health: Location-Based Augmented Reality Games

Authors: Chechen Liao, Pui-Lai To, Yi-Hui Wang

Abstract:

Recently location-based augmented reality games (LBS+AR) have become increasingly popular as a major form of entertainment. Location-based augmented reality games have provided a lot of opportunities for face-to-face interaction among players. Prior studies also indicate that the social side of location-based augmented reality games are one of the major reasons for players to engage in the games. However, the impact of the usage of location-based augmented reality games has not been well explored. The study examines how interpersonal interaction affects social capital and health through playing location-based augmented reality games. The study also investigates how social capital mediates the relationships between interpersonal interaction and health. The study uses survey method to collect data. Six-hundred forty-seven questionnaires are collected. Structural equation modeling is used to investigate the relationships among variables. The causal relationships between variables in the research model are tested. The results of the study indicated that four interpersonal attraction attributes, including ability, proximity, similarity, and familiarity, are identified by ways of factor analysis. Interpersonal attraction is important for location-based augmented reality game-players to develop bonding and bridging social capital. Bonding and bridging social capital have a positive impact on the mental and social health of game-players. The results of the study provide academic and practical implications for future growth of location-based augmented reality games.

Keywords: health, interpersonal interaction, location-based augmented reality games, social capital

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27033 Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: An Empirical Investigation of Bank-Specific Micro-Economic Factors

Authors: Amir Ikram, Faisal Ijaz, Qin Su

Abstract:

The empirical study was undertaken to explore the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) sector held by the commercial banks. Primary data was collected through well-structured survey questionnaire from credit analysts/bankers of 42 branches of 9 commercial banks, operating in the district of Lahore (Pakistan), for 2014-2015. Selective descriptive analysis and Pearson chi-square technique were used to illustrate and evaluate the significance of different variables affecting NPLs. Branch age, duration of the loan, and credit policy were found to be significant determinants of NPLs. The study proposes that bank-specific and SME-specific microeconomic variables directly influence NPLs, while macroeconomic factors act as intermediary variables. Framework exhibiting causal nexus of NPLs was also drawn on the basis of empirical findings. The results elaborate various origins of NPLs and suggest that they are primarily instigated by the loan sanctioning procedure of the financial institution. The paper also underlines the risk management practices adopted by the bank at branch level to averse the risk of loan default. Empirical investigation of bank-specific microeconomic factors of NPLs with respect to Pakistan’s economy is the novelty of the study. Broader strategic policy implications are provided for credit analysts and entrepreneurs.

Keywords: commercial banks, microeconomic factors, non-performing loans, small and medium enterprises

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27032 Establishing a Cause-Effect Relationship among the Key Success Factors of Healthcare Waste Management in India

Authors: Ankur Chauhan, Amol Singh

Abstract:

The increasing human resource has led to the rapid increment in the generation of healthcare waste across the world. Since, this waste consists of the infectious and hazardous components emerged from the patient care activities in different healthcare facilities; therefore, its proper management becomes vital for mitigating its negative impact on society and environment. The present research work focuses on the identification of the key success factors for developing a successful healthcare waste management plan. In addition, the key success factors have been studied by developing a causal diagram with the help of a decision making trial and evaluation (DEMATEL) approach. The findings of the study would help in the filtration of dominant key success factors which would further help in making a comparative assessment of the waste management plan of different hospitals.

Keywords: healthcare waste disposal, environment and society, multi-criteria decision making, DEMATEL

Procedia PDF Downloads 361