Search results for: causal analysis

Authors: Sohail Imran, Tariq Mahmood

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In complex healthcare diagnostic investigation process, medical practitioners have to focus on ways to standardize their processes to perform high quality care and optimize the time and costs. Process mining techniques can be applied to extract process related knowledge from data without considering causal and dynamic dependencies in business domain and processes. The application of process mining is effective in diagnostic investigation. It is very helpful where a treatment gives no dispositive evidence favoring it. In this paper, we applied process mining to discover important process flow of diagnostic investigation for hepatitis patients. This approach has some benefits which can enhance the quality and efficiency of diagnostic investigation processes.

Keywords: process mining, healthcare, diagnostic investigation process, process flow

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Authors: Cuong V Nguyen, Ralph Horne, John Fien, France Cheong

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Social vulnerability to climate change is increasingly being acknowledged, and proposals to measure and manage it are emerging. Building upon this work, this paper proposes an approach to social vulnerability assessment using a new mechanism to aggregate and account for causal relationships among components of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). To operationalize this index, the authors propose a means to develop an appropriate primary dataset, through application of a specifically-designed household survey questionnaire. The data collection and analysis, including calibration and calculation of the SVI is demonstrated through application in case study city in central coastal Vietnam. The calculation of SVI at the fine-grained local neighbourhood scale provides high resolution in vulnerability assessment, and also obviates the need for secondary data, which may be unavailable or problematic, particularly at the local scale in developing countries. The SVI household survey is underpinned by the results of a Delphi survey, an in-depth interview and focus group discussions with local environmental professionals and community members. The research reveals inherent limitations of existing SVIs but also indicates the potential for their use in assessing social vulnerability and making decisions associated with responding to climate change at the local scale.

Keywords: climate change, local scale, social vulnerability, social vulnerability index

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Authors: Mahdi Biabanaki

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Religion is present in all human societies and has been for tens of thousands of years. What is noteworthy is that although religious traditions vary in different societies, there are considerable similarities in their religious beliefs. In all human cultures, for example, there is a widespread belief in the afterlife. Cognitive science of Religion (CSR), an emerging branch of cognitive science, searches for the root of these widespread similarities and the widespread prevalence of beliefs such as beliefs in the afterlife in common mental structures among humans. Accordingly, the cognitive architecture of the human mind has evolved to produce such beliefs automatically and non-reflectively. For CSR researchers, belief in the afterlife is an intuitive belief resulting from the functioning of mental tools. Our purpose in this article is to extract and evaluate the cognitive explanations presented in the CSR field for explaining beliefs in the afterlife. Our research shows that there are two basic theories in this area of CSR, namely "intuitive dualism" and "simulation constraint" theory. We show that these two theories face four major challenges and limitations in explaining belief in the afterlife: inability to provide a causal explanation, inability to explain cultural/religious differences in afterlife belief, the lack of distinction between the natural and the rational foundations of belief in the afterlife and disregarding the supernatural foundations of the afterlife belief.

Keywords: afterlife, cognitive science of religion, intuitive dualism, simulation constraint

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Authors: Nizar Ghali, Bernard Fortin, Guy Lacroix

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In Quebec, colonoscopies volumes have continued to rise in recent years in the absence of effective monitoring mechanism for the appropriateness and the quality of these exams. In 2010, November, Quebec Government introduced the colorectal cancer-screening program in the objective to control for volume and cost imperfection. This program is based on clinical standards and was initiated for first group of institutions. One year later, Government adds financial incentives for participants institutions. In this analysis, we want to assess for the causal effect of the two components of this program: clinical pathways and financial incentives. Especially we assess for the reform effect on healthcare quality and population health in the context that medical remuneration is not directly dependent on this additional funding offered by the program. We have data on admissions episodes and deaths for 8 years. We use multistate model analog to difference in difference approach to estimate reform effect on the transition probability between different states for each patient. Our results show that the reform reduced length of stay without deterioration in hospital mortality or readmission rate. In the other hand, the program contributed to decrease the hospitalization rate and a less invasive treatment approach for colorectal surgeries. This is a sign of healthcare quality and population health improvement. We demonstrate in this analysis that physicians’ behavior can be affected by both clinical standards and financial incentives even if offered to facilities.

Keywords: multi-state and multi-episode transition model, healthcare quality, length of stay, transition probability, difference in difference

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Authors: Matheus Borges Carneiro, Fabiane Leticia Lizarelli, José Carlos De Toledo

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The evolution of quality management by companies was strongly enabled by, among others, ISO 9001 certification, which is considered a crucial requirement for several customers. Likewise, performance measurement provides useful insights for companies to identify the reflection of their decision-making process on their improvement. One of the most used performance measurement models is the balanced scorecard (BSC), which uses four perspectives to address a firm’s performance: financial, internal process, customer satisfaction, and learning and growth. Studies related to ISO 9001 and business performance have mostly adopted a quantitative approach to identify the standard’s causal effect on a firm’s performance. However, to verify how this influence may occur, an in-depth analysis within a qualitative approach is required. Therefore, this paper aims to verify the impact of ISO 9001:2015 on Brazilian firms’ performance based on the balanced scorecard perspective. Hence, nine certified companies located in the Southeast region of Brazil were studied through a multiple case study approach. Within this study, it was possible to identify the positive impact of ISO 9001 on firms’ overall performance, and four Critical Success Factors (CSFs) were identified as relevant on the linkage among ISO 9001 and firms’ performance: employee involvement, top management, process management, and customer focus. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of interviews was limited to the quality manager specialist, and the sample was limited since several companies were closed during the period of the study. This study presents an in-depth analysis of how the relationship between ISO 9001 certification and firms’ performance in a developing country is.

Keywords: balanced scorecard, Brazilian firms’ performance, critical success factors, ISO 9001 certification, performance measurement

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Authors: Raphaël Weuts, Mykyta Petik, Anton Vedder

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Artificial Intelligence has the potential to create and already creates enormous value in healthcare. Prescriptive systems might be able to make the use of healthcare capacity more efficient. Such systems might entail interpretations that exclude the effect of confounders that brings risks with it. Those risks might be mitigated by regulation that prevents systems entailing such risks to come to market. One modality of regulation is that of legislation, and the European AI Act is an example of such a regulatory instrument that might mitigate these risks. To assess the risk mitigation potential of the AI Act for those risks, this research focusses on a case study of a hypothetical application of medical device software that entails the aforementioned risks. The AI Act refers to the harmonised norms for already existing legislation, here being the European medical device regulation. The issue at hand is a causal link between a confounder and the value the algorithm optimises for by proxy. The research identifies where the AI Act already looks at confounders (i.a. feedback loops in systems that continue to learn after being placed on the market). The research identifies where the current proposal by parliament leaves legal uncertainty on the necessity to check for confounders that do not influence the input of the system, when the system does not continue to learn after being placed on the market. The authors propose an amendment to article 15 of the AI Act that would require high-risk systems to be developed in such a way as to mitigate risks from those aforementioned confounders.

Keywords: AI Act, healthcare, confounders, risks

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Authors: Wei Yao, Constantinos Alexiou

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In the existing literature, many studies have focused on the implementation and effectiveness of quantitative easing (QE) since 2008, but only a few have evaluated QE’s effect on commodity prices. In this context, by following Frankel’s (1986) commodity price overshooting model, we study the dynamic covariation between the expected real interest rates and six agricultural commodities’ real returns over the period from 2000:1 to 2018 for the US economy. We use wavelet analysis to investigate the causal relationship and co-movement of time series data by calculating the coefficient of determination in different frequencies. We find that a) US unconventional monetary policy may cause more positive and significant covariation between the expected real interest rates and agricultural commodities’ real returns over the short horizons; b) a lead-lag relationship that runs from agricultural commodities’ real returns to the expected real short-term interest rates over the long horizons; and c) a lead-lag relationship from agricultural commodities’ real returns to the expected real long-term interest rates over short horizons. In the realm of monetary policy, we argue that QE may shift the negative relationship between most commodities’ real returns and the expected real interest rates to a positive one over a short horizon.

Keywords: QE, commodity price, interest rate, wavelet coherence

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Authors: Marie E. Docken

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At some point in the lifecycle of a country, patterns of political and social unrest of varying degrees are observed. Events involving public disorder or civil disobedience may produce effects that range a wide spectrum of varying outcomes, depending on the level of unrest. Many previous studies, primarily theoretical in nature, have attempted to measure public disorder in answering why or how it occurs in society by examining causal factors or underlying issues in the social or political position of a population. The main objective in doing so is to understand how these activities evolve or seek some predictive capability for the events. In contrast, this research involves the fusion of analytics and social studies to provide more knowledge of the public disorder and civil disobedience intensity in populations. With a greater understanding of the magnitude of these events, it is believed that we may learn how they relate to extreme actions such as mass migration or violence. Upon establishing a model for measuring civil unrest based upon empirical data, a case study on various Latin American countries is performed. Interpretations of historical events are combined with analytical results to provide insights regarding the magnitude and effect of social and political activism.

Keywords: public disorder, civil disobedience, Latin America, metrics, data analysis

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Authors: S. Da Costa, D. Páez, F. Sánchez

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We examine the causal role of positive affect on creativity, the association of creativity or innovation in the ideation phase with functional emotional regulation, successful adjustment to stress and dispositional emotional creativity, as well as the predictive role of creativity for positive emotions and social adjustment. The study examines the effects of modification of positive affect on creativity. Participants write three poems, narrate an infatuation episode, answer a scale of personal growth after this episode and perform a creativity task, answer a flow scale after creativity task and fill a dispositional emotional creativity scale. High and low positive effect was induced by asking subjects to write three poems about high and low positive connotation stimuli. In a neutral condition, tasks were performed without previous affect induction. Subjects on the condition of high positive affect report more positive and less negative emotions, more personal growth (effect size r = .24) and their last poem was rated as more original by judges (effect size r = .33). Mediational analysis showed that positive emotions explain the influence of the manipulation on personal growth - positive affect correlates r = .33 to personal growth. The emotional creativity scale correlated to creativity scores of the creative task (r = .14), to the creativity of the narration of the infatuation episode (r = .21). Emotional creativity was also associated, during performing the creativity task, with flow (r = .27) and with affect balance (r = .26). The mediational analysis showed that emotional creativity predicts flow through positive affect. Results suggest that innovation in the phase of ideation is associated with a positive affect balance and satisfactory performance, as well as dispositional emotional creativity is adaptive.

Keywords: affectivity, creativity, induction, innovation, psychological factors

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Authors: Nadia Elouaer

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Tax revenue is the main state resource and one of the important variables in tax policy. Nevertheless, this resource is continually decreasing, so it is important to focus on the reasons for this decline. Several studies show that the taxpayer is reluctant to pay taxes, especially in countries at risk or in countries in transition, including Tunisia. This study focuses on the tax evasion behavior of a Tunisian taxpayer under the influence of his political beliefs, as well as the influence of different tax compliance variables. Using a questionnaire, a sample of 500 Tunisian taxpayers is used to examine the relationship between political beliefs and taxpayer affiliations and tax compliance variables, as well as the study of the causal link between political beliefs and fraudulent behavior. The data were examined using correlation, factor, and regression analysis and found a positive and statistically significant relationship between the different tax compliance variables and the tax evasion behavior. There is also a positive and statistically significant relationship between tax evasion and political beliefs and affiliations. The study of the relationship between political beliefs and compliance variables shows that they are closely related. The conclusion is to admit that tax evasion and political beliefs are closely linked, and the government should update its tax policy and modernize its administration in order to strengthen the credibility and disclosure of information in order to restore a relationship of trust between public authorities and the taxpayer.

Keywords: fiscal policy, political beliefs, tax evasion, taxpayer behavior

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Authors: Magdalena Orth, Gunnar Gotz

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Background: Domestic accountability, budget transparency and public financial management (PFM) are considered vital components of good governance in developing countries. The aid modality budget support (BS) promotes these governance functions in developing countries. BS engages in political decision-making and provides financial and technical support to poverty reduction strategies of the partner countries. Nevertheless, many donors have withdrawn their support from this modality due to cases of corruption, fraud or human rights violations. This exit from BS is leaving a finance and governance vacuum in the countries. The evaluation team analyzed the consequences of terminating the use of this modality and found particularly negative effects for good governance outcomes. Methodology: The evaluation uses a qualitative (theory-based) approach consisting of a comparative case study design, which is complemented by a process-tracing approach. For the case studies, the team conducted over 100 semi-structured interviews in Malawi, Uganda, Rwanda and Zambia and used four country-specific, tailor-made budget analysis. In combination with a previous DEval evaluation synthesis on the effects of BS, the team was able to create a before-and-after comparison that yields causal effects. Main Findings: In all four countries domestic accountability and budget transparency declined if other forms of pressure are not replacing BS´s mutual accountability mechanisms. In Malawi a fraud scandal created pressure from the society and from donors so that accountability was improved. In the other countries, these pressure mechanisms were absent so that domestic accountability declined. BS enables donors to actively participate in political processes of the partner country as donors transfer funds into the treasury of the partner country and conduct a high-level political dialogue. The results confirm that the exit from BS created a governance vacuum that, if not compensated through external/internal pressure, leads to a deterioration of good governance. For example, in the case of highly aid dependent Malawi did the possibility of a relaunch of BS provide sufficient incentives to push for governance reforms. Overall the results show that the three good governance areas are negatively affected by the exit from BS. This stands in contrast to positive effects found before the exit. The team concludes that the relationship is causal, because the before-and-after comparison coherently shows that the presence of BS correlates with positive effects and the absence with negative effects. Conclusion: These findings strongly suggest that BS is an effective modality to promote governance and its abolishment is likely to cause governance disruptions. Donors and partner governments should find ways to re-engage in closely coordinated policy-based aid modalities. In addition, a coordinated and carefully managed exit-strategy should be in place before an exit from similar modalities is considered. Particularly a continued framework of mutual accountability and a high-level political dialogue should be aspired to maintain pressure and oversight that is required to achieve good governance.

Keywords: budget support, domestic accountability, public financial management and budget transparency, Sub-Sahara Africa

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Authors: Walter Sebron, Hans Tschürtz, Peter Krebs

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The choice of applicable analysis methods in safety or systems engineering depends on the depth of knowledge about a system, and on the respective lifecycle phase. However, the analysis method chain still shows gaps as it should support system analysis during the lifecycle of a system from a rough concept in pre-project phase until end-of-life. This paper’s goal is to discuss an analysis method, the VISSE Shell Model Analysis (VISMA) method, which aims at closing the gap in the early system lifecycle phases, like the conceptual or pre-project phase, or the project start phase. It was originally developed to aid in the definition of the system boundary of electronic system parts, like e.g. a control unit for a pump motor. Furthermore, it can be also applied to non-electronic system parts. The VISMA method is a graphical sketch-like method that stratifies a system and its parts in inner and outer shells, like the layers of an onion. It analyses a system in a two-step approach, from the innermost to the outermost components followed by the reverse direction. To ensure a complete view of a system and its environment, the VISMA should be performed by (multifunctional) development teams. To introduce the method, a set of rules and guidelines has been defined in order to enable a proper shell build-up. In the first step, the innermost system, named system under consideration (SUC), is selected, which is the focus of the subsequent analysis. Then, its directly adjacent components, responsible for providing input to and receiving output from the SUC, are identified. These components are the content of the first shell around the SUC. Next, the input and output components to the components in the first shell are identified and form the second shell around the first one. Continuing this way, shell by shell is added with its respective parts until the border of the complete system (external border) is reached. Last, two external shells are added to complete the system view, the environment and the use case shell. This system view is also stored for future use. In the second step, the shells are examined in the reverse direction (outside to inside) in order to remove superfluous components or subsystems. Input chains to the SUC, as well as output chains from the SUC are described graphically via arrows, to highlight functional chains through the system. As a result, this method offers a clear and graphical description and overview of a system, its main parts and environment; however, the focus still remains on a specific SUC. It helps to identify the interfaces and interfacing components of the SUC, as well as important external interfaces of the overall system. It supports the identification of the first internal and external hazard causes and causal chains. Additionally, the method promotes a holistic picture and cross-functional understanding of a system, its contributing parts, internal relationships and possible dangers within a multidisciplinary development team.

Keywords: analysis methods, functional safety, hazard identification, system and safety engineering, system boundary definition, system safety

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Authors: Meghry Nazarian, Ibrahim Duyar

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Effective management of a diverse workforce in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) presents peculiar importance as two-thirds of residents are expatriates who have diverse ethnic and cultural backgrounds. Like any other organization in the country, UAE schools have become upmost diverse settings in the world. The purpose of this study was to examine whether principals’ cultural intelligence has direct and indirect (moderating) influences on teachers’ perceived diversity climate. A quantitative causal-comparative research design was employed to analyze the data. Participants included random samples of principals and teachers working in the private and charter schools in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. The data-gathering online questionnaires included previously developed and validated scales as the measures of study variables. More specifically, the multidimensional short-form measure of Cultural Intelligence (CQ) and the diversity climate scale were used to measure the study variables. Multivariate statistics, including the analysis of multivariate analysis of variance (MANCOVA) and structural equation modeling (SEM), were employed to examine the relationships between the study variables. The preliminary analyses of data showed that principals and teachers have differing views of diversity management and climate in schools. Findings also showed that principals’ cultural intelligence has both direct and moderating influences on teachers’ perceived diversity climate. The study findings are expected to inform policymakers and practicing educational leaders in addressing diversity management in a country where the majority of the residents are the minority who have diverse ethnic and cultural backgrounds.

Keywords: diversity management, united arab emirates, school principals’ cultural intelligence (CQ), teachers’ perceived diversity climate

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Authors: S. Srinivasan, E. Cretu

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The information flow (e.g. block-diagram or signal flow graph) paradigm for the design and simulation of Microelectromechanical (MEMS)-based systems allows to model MEMS devices using causal transfer functions easily, and interface them with electronic subsystems for fast system-level explorations of design alternatives and optimization. Nevertheless, the physical bi-directional coupling between different energy domains is not easily captured in causal signal flow modeling. Moreover, models of fundamental components acting as building blocks (e.g. gap-varying MEMS capacitor structures) depend not only on the component, but also on the specific excitation mode (e.g. voltage or charge-actuation). In contrast, the energy flow modeling paradigm in terms of generalized across-through variables offers an acausal perspective, separating clearly the physical model from the boundary conditions. This promotes reusability and the use of primitive physical models for assembling MEMS devices from primitive structures, based on the interconnection topology in generalized circuits. The physical modeling capabilities of Simscape have been used in the present work in order to develop a MEMS library containing parameterized fundamental building blocks (area and gap-varying MEMS capacitors, nonlinear springs, displacement stoppers, etc.) for the design, simulation and optimization of MEMS inertial sensors. The models capture both the nonlinear electromechanical interactions and geometrical nonlinearities and can be used for both small and large signal analyses, including the numerical computation of pull-in voltages (stability loss). Simscape behavioral modeling language was used for the implementation of reduced-order macro models, that present the advantage of a seamless interface with Simulink blocks, for creating hybrid information/energy flow system models. Test bench simulations of the library models compare favorably with both analytical results and with more in-depth finite element simulations performed in ANSYS. Separate MEMS-electronic integration tests were done on closed-loop MEMS accelerometers, where Simscape was used for modeling the MEMS device and Simulink for the electronic subsystem.

Keywords: across-through variables, electromechanical coupling, energy flow, information flow, Matlab/Simulink, MEMS, nonlinear, pull-in instability, reduced order macro models, Simscape

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Authors: Sandeep K. Shukla, Roli Jain, Soumitra S. Pande, Archna Pandey

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Sulfur nanoparticles were prepared by different methods with different sizes and shapes. When the sulfur is present as nanoparticles they have many practical applications in our life. This research discusses sulfur nanoparticles synthesis, characterizations and applications. With dandruff being a common everyday problem and the market is loaded with antidandruff shampoos and such skin care products, it is obvious to assume resourceful research into this area would be both objective to present scenario and potentially lucrative. Nanoparticles are frequently in use in some very powerful antimicrobial, antifungal cosmetics nowadays, especially silver. To check its antidandruff activity, experiments have been conducted on Malassezia furfur the causal organism for seborrheaic dermatitis or dandruff, which have been cultured for such study in our lab.

Keywords: CTAB surfactant SEM, sulfur nanoparticles (S-NPs), XRD, polymeric surfactant

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Authors: Masayuki Mori

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This study investigates the relationship between teachers’ perceptions of the usability of classroom space and various elements, including both physical and non-physical, of classroom environments. With the introduction of the GIGA School funding program in Japan in 2019, understanding its impact on learning in classroom space is crucial. The program enabled local educational authorities (LEA) to make it possible to provide one PC/tablet for each student of both elementary and junior high schools. Moreover, at the same time, the program also supported LEA to purchase other electronic devices for educational purposes such as electronic whiteboards, large displays, and real image projectors. A nationwide survey was conducted using random sampling methodology among 100 junior high schools to collect data on classroom space. Of those, 60 schools responded to the survey. The survey covered approximately fifty items, including classroom space size, class size, and educational electronic devices owned. After the data compilation, statistical analysis was used to identify correlations between the variables and to explore the extent to which classroom environment elements influenced teachers’ perceptions. Furthermore, decision tree analysis was applied to visualize the causal relationships between the variables. The findings indicate a significant negative correlation between class size and teachers’ evaluation of usability. In addition to the class size, the way students stored their belongings also influenced teachers’ perceptions. As for the placement of educational electronic devices, the installation of a projector produced a small negative correlation with teachers’ perceptions. The study suggests that while the GIGA School funding program is not significantly influential, traditional educational conditions such as class size have a greater impact on teachers’ perceptions of the usability of classroom space. These results highlight the need for awareness and strategies to integrate various elements in designing the learning environment of the classroom for teachers and students to improve their learning experience.

Keywords: classroom space, GIGA School, questionnaire survey, teachers’ perceptions

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Authors: Meida Laely Ramdani, Earmporn Thongkrajai, Dedy Purwito

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Lifestyle is one of the most important factors affecting health. Measurement of lifestyle behaviors is necessary for the identification of causal associations between unhealthy lifestyle and health outcomes. There was many instruments have been measured for lifestyle, but not specific for stroke recurrence. This study aimed to develop a new questionnaire of Lifestyle Adjustment Scale (LSAS) among recurrent stroke patients in Indonesia and to measure the reliability and validity of LSAS. The instrument consist of 33 items was developed from the responses of 30 recurrent stroke patients with the maximum age 60 years. Data was collected during October to November 2015. The properties of the instrument were evaluated by validity assessment and reliability measures. The content validity was judged adequate by a panel of five experts, with the result of I-CVI was 0.97. The Cronbach’s alpha analysis was carried out to measure the reliability of LSAS. The result showed that Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.819. LSAS were classified under the domains of dietary habit, smoking habit, physical activity, and stress management. The results of Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for each subscale were 0.60, 0.39, 0.67, 0.65 and 0.76 respectively. LSAS instrument was valid and reliable therefore can be used as research tool among recurrent stroke patients. The development of this questionnaire has been adapted to the socio-cultural context in Indonesia.

Keywords: LSAS, recurrent stroke patients, lifestyle, Indonesia

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Authors: Kuixi Du, Thomas J. Lipscomb

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The proficiency in Mathematics skills is fundamental to success in the STEM disciplines. In the US, beginning college students who are placed in remedial/developmental Mathematics courses frequently struggle to achieve academic success. Therefore, Mathematics remediation in college has become an important concern, and providing Mathematics remediation is a prevalent way to help the students who may not be fully prepared for college-level courses. Programs vary, however, and the effectiveness of a particular remedial Mathematics program must be empirically demonstrated. The purpose of this study was to apply the sharp regression discontinuity (RD) technique to determine the effectiveness of the Jack Leaps Summer (JLS) Mathematic remediation program in supporting improved Mathematics learning outcomes among newly admitted Mathematics students in the South Dakota State University. The researchers studied the newly admitted Fall 2019 cohort of Mathematics majors (n=423). The results indicated that students whose pretest score was lower than the cut-off point and who were assigned to the JLS program experienced significantly higher scores on the post-test (Math 101 final score). Based on these results, there is evidence that the JLS program is effective in meeting its primary objective.

Keywords: causal inference, mathematisc remedial program evaluation, quasi-experimental research design, regression discontinuity design, cohort studies

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Authors: Kari Björn, Mikael Soini

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Higher Education system reforms, especially Finnish system of Universities of Applied Sciences in 2014 are discussed. The new steering model is based on major legislative changes, output-oriented funding and open information. The governmental steering reform, especially the financial model and the resulting institutional level responses, such as a curriculum reforms are discussed, focusing especially in engineering programs. The paper is motivated by management need to establish objective steering-related performance indicators and to apply them consistently across all educational programs. The close relationship to governmental steering and funding model imply that internally derived indicators can be directly applied. Metropolia University of Applied Sciences (MUAS) as a case institution is briefly introduced, focusing on engineering education in Information and Communications Technology (ICT), and its related programs. The reform forced consolidation of previously separate smaller programs into fewer units of student application. New curriculum ICT students have a common first year before they apply for a Major. A framework of parallel and longitudinal comparisons is introduced and used across Majors in two campuses. The new externally introduced performance criteria are applied internally on ICT Majors using data ex-ante and ex-post of program merger.  A comparative performance of the Majors after completion of joint first year is established, focusing on previously omitted Majors for completeness of analysis. Some new research questions resulting from transfer of Majors between campuses and quota setting are discussed. Practical orientation identifies best practices to share or targets needing most attention for improvement. This level of analysis is directly applicable at student group and teaching team level, where corrective actions are possible, when identified. The analysis is quantitative and the nature of the corrective actions are not discussed. Causal relationships and factor analysis are omitted, because campuses, their staff and various pedagogical implementation details contain still too many undetermined factors for our limited data. Such qualitative analysis is left for further research. Further study must, however, be guided by the relevance of the observations.

Keywords: engineering education, integrated curriculum, learning outcomes, performance measurement

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Authors: Liubov Evstigneeva

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In this paper an attempt is made to establish causal nexuses between innovation and international trade in Russia. The topicality of this issue is determined by the necessity of choosing policy instruments for economic modernization and transition to innovative development. The vector auto regression (VAR) model and Granger test are applied for the Russian monthly data from 2005 until the second quartile of 2015. Both lagged import and export at the national level cause innovation, the latter starts to stimulate foreign trade since it is a remote lag. In comparison to aggregate data, the results by patent’s categories are more diverse. Importing technologies from foreign countries stimulates patent activity, while innovations created in Russia are only Granger causality for import to Commonwealth of Independent States.

Keywords: export, import, innovation, patents

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Authors: Nyaris Pambudiyatno, Asto Buditjahjanto, Eppy Yundra, Arie Wardhono, Eko Hariadi

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Vocational education is part of the national education system that is prepared to produce graduates who have the skills and knowledge according to the needs and requirements required by the job. Vocational Education is a secondary education that prepares students to work in a particular field. The purpose of this study was to analyze and find out the effect of industrial work practice experience and career information on work readiness through work motivation. This type of research is causal research with a quantitative approach. The population in this study was 359 cadets of Aviation Polytechnic Surabaya. While the number of samples calculates using slovin calculations obtained by 189 cadets of Surabaya Aviation Polytechnic. The type of data used is quantitative data with the primary data source. Data collection techniques are by distributing questionnaires. Analysis of this study is with Lisrel. The findings prove that: (1) Industrial Work Experience experience has a positive and significant effect on work motivation; (2) Industrial Work Experience has a positive and significant impact on work readiness; (3) Career information has a positive and significant effect on job readiness; (4) Career information has a positive and significant impact on job readiness; Dan (5) Work motivation has a positive and significant effect on work readiness.

Keywords: career information, increase work readiness, industrial work experience, work motivation

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Authors: I. Gahlouz, A. Chellil

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The paper concerns the estimation of system components faults by using an unknown inputs observer. To reach this goal, we used the Bond Graph approach to physical modelling. We showed that this graphical tool is allowing the representation of system components faults as unknown inputs within the state representation of the considered physical system. The study of the causal and structural features of the system (controllability, observability, finite structure, and infinite structure) based on the Bond Graph approach was hence fulfilled in order to design an unknown inputs observer which is used for the system component fault estimation.

Keywords: estimation, bond graph, controllability, observability

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Authors: Porntip Ruengtam

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This article is an extension of previous research presenting the relevant factors related to environmental perceptions, residential community, and the design of a healing environment, which have effects on the well-being and requirements of Thai elderly. Research methodology began with observations and interviews in three case studies in terms of the management processes and environment design of similar existing projects in Thailand. The interview results were taken to summarize with related theories and literature. A questionnaire survey was designed for data collection to confirm the factors of requirements in a residential community intended for the Thai elderly. A structural equation model (SEM) was formulated to explain the cause-effect factors for the requirements of a residential community for Thai elderly. The research revealed that the requirements of a residential community for Thai elderly were classified into three groups when utilizing a technique for exploratory factor analysis. The factors were comprised of (1) requirements for general facilities and activities, (2) requirements for facilities related to health and security, and (3) requirements for facilities related to physical exercise in the residential community. The results from the SEM showed the background of elderly people had a direct effect on their requirements for a residential community from various aspects. The results should lead to the formulation of policies for design and management of residential communities for the elderly in order to enhance quality of life as well as both the physical and mental health of the Thai elderly.

Keywords: elderly, environmental design, residential community, structural equation modeling

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Authors: S. Fahiminiya, J. Nadaf, F. Rauch, L. Jerome-Majewska, J. Majewski

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Background: Sequencing of protein coding regions of human genome (Whole Exome Sequencing; WES), has demonstrated a great success in the identification of causal mutations for several rare genetic disorders in human. Generally, most of WES studies have focused on rare variants in coding exons and splicing-sites where missense substitutions lead to the alternation of protein product. Although focusing on this category of variants has revealed the mystery behind many inherited genetic diseases in recent years, a subset of them remained still inconclusive. Here, we present the result of our WES studies where analyzing only rare variants in coding regions was not conclusive but further investigation revealed the involvement of non-coding variants and copy number variations (CNV) in etiology of the diseases. Methods: Whole exome sequencing was performed using our standard protocols at Genome Quebec Innovation Center, Montreal, Canada. All bioinformatics analyses were done using in-house WES pipeline. Results: To date, we successfully identified several disease causing mutations within gene coding regions (e.g. SCARF2: Van den Ende-Gupta syndrome and SNAP29: 22q11.2 deletion syndrome) by using WES. In addition, we showed that variants in non-coding regions and CNV have also important value and should not be ignored and/or filtered out along the way of bioinformatics analysis on WES data. For instance, in patients with osteogenesis imperfecta type V and in patients with glucocorticoid deficiency, we identified variants in 5'UTR, resulting in the production of longer or truncating non-functional proteins. Furthermore, CNVs were identified as the main cause of the diseases in patients with metaphyseal dysplasia with maxillary hypoplasia and brachydactyly and in patients with osteogenesis imperfecta type VII. Conclusions: Our study highlights the importance of considering non-coding variants and CNVs during interpretation of WES data, as they can be the only cause of disease under investigation.

Keywords: whole exome sequencing data, non-coding variants, copy number variations, rare diseases

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Authors: Ming Ma, Rui Li

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In the highly urbanized district, green open space is playing an important role in human’s health and wellbeing as a physical, aesthetic and natural environment resources. The aim of this paper is to close this gap through providing a comprehensive, qualitative meta-analysis of existing studies related to this issue. A systematic scoping of current quantitative research is conducted which mostly focused on cross-sectional survey and experimental studies. Health benefits from contact with green open space could be categorized into physical health, psychological health and social wellbeing. Mechanism for the health related to green open space could be clearly identified with the regard to natural restoration, physical activities and social capital. These results indicate a multiple pathways framework between the health benefits and mechanism. In order to support design and planning, the most evident relationship was picked up that people could psychologically benefit from green open space through outdoors physical activities. Additionally, three design and planning strategies are put forward. Various and multi-level contacts with green open space would be considered as an explanation of the pathway results and tie to bridge the health to design and planning. There is a need to carry out long-term research emphasizing on causal relationship between health and green open space through excluding cofounding factors such as self-selection.

Keywords: urban green open space, planning and design, health benefit, mechanism, pathway framework

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Authors: Amir Salamatzade, Marhamet HematPour

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Due to the increasing importance of psychological factors in the incidence and exacerbation of chronic diseases such as multiple sclerosis, the aim of this study was to determine the difference between emotional regulation strategies and psychological symptoms in patients with multiple sclerosis and normal people. The research method was causal-comparative (post-event). The statistical population of this research included all patients with multiple sclerosis referred to the MS Association of Rasht in the first quarter of 2021, approximately 350 people. The study sample also included 120 people (60 patients with multiple sclerosis and 60 normal people) who were selected by the available sampling method and completed the emotional regulation and anxiety, depression, and stress Lavibund and Lavibund (1995) questionnaires. Data were analyzed using an independent t-test and multivariate variance analysis. The results showed that there was a significant difference between the mean of emotional regulation strategies and the components of emotional reassessment and emotional inhibition between the two groups of patients with multiple sclerosis and normal individuals (p < 0.01). There is a significant difference between the mean of psychological symptoms and the components of depression, anxiety, and stress in the two groups of patients with multiple sclerosis and normal individuals. (p < 0.01). Based on this, it can be concluded that patients with multiple sclerosis have lower levels of emotional regulation strategies and higher levels of psychological symptoms than normal individuals.

Keywords: emotional regulation strategies, psychological symptoms, multiple sclerosis, normal Individuals

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Authors: Sanchayan Banerjee, Peter John

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Nudge plus is a modification of the toolkit of behavioural public policy. It incorporates an element of reflection¾the plus¾into the delivery of a nudge, either blended in or made proximate. Nudge plus builds on recent work combining heuristics and deliberation. It may be used to design pro-social interventions that help preserve the autonomy of the agent. The argument turns on seminal work on dual systems, which presents a subtler relationship between fast and slow thinking than commonly assumed in the classic literature in behavioural public policy. We review classic and recent work on dual processes to show that a hybrid is more plausible than the default interventionist or parallel competitive framework. We define nudge plus, set out what reflection could entail, provide examples, outline causal mechanisms, and draw testable implications.

Keywords: nudge, nudge plus, think, dual process theory

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Authors: S. Hussain, C. Grieco, M. Brosnan

Abstract:

Background and Aims: Autism is a complex neurobehavioural disorder, characterised by impairments in the development of language and communication skills. The study involved a state-of-art systematic review, in addition to qualitative data analysis, to establish the evidence for social stories as an intervention strategy for autistic children. An up-to-date review of the use of digital technologies in the delivery of interventions to autistic children was also carried out; to propose the efficacy of digital technologies and the use of social stories to improve intervention outcomes for autistic children. Methods: Two student researchers reviewed a range of randomised control trials and observational studies. The aim of the review was to establish if there was adequate evidence to justify recommending social stories to autistic patients. Students devised their own search strategies to be used across a range of search engines, including Ovid-Medline, Google Scholar and PubMed. Students then critically appraised the generated literature. Additionally, qualitative data obtained from a comprehensive online questionnaire on social stories was also thematically analysed. The thematic analysis was carried out independently by each researcher, using a ‘bottom-up’ approach, meaning contributors read and analysed responses to questions and devised semantic themes from reading the responses to a given question. The researchers then placed each response into a semantic theme or sub-theme. The students then joined to discuss the merging of their theme headings. The Inter-rater reliability (IRR) was calculated before and after theme headings were merged, giving IRR for pre- and post-discussion. Lastly, the thematic analysis was assessed by a third researcher, who is a professor of psychology and the director for the ‘Centre for Applied Autism Research’ at the University of Bath. Results: A review of the literature, as well as thematic analysis of qualitative data found supporting evidence for social story use. The thematic analysis uncovered some interesting themes from the questionnaire responses, relating to the reasons why social stories were used and the factors influencing their effectiveness in each case. However, overall, the evidence for digital technologies interventions was limited, and the literature could not prove a causal link between better intervention outcomes for autistic children and the use of technologies. However, they did offer valid proposed theories for the suitability of digital technologies for autistic children. Conclusions: Overall, the review concluded that there was adequate evidence to justify advising the use of social stories with autistic children. The role of digital technologies is clearly a fast-emerging field and appears to be a promising method of intervention for autistic children; however, it should not yet be considered an evidence-based approach. The students, using this research, developed ideas on social story interventions which aim to help autistic children.

Keywords: autistic children, digital technologies, intervention, social stories

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Authors: Mosses E. Lufuke

Abstract:

This paper attempted to investigate whether there is Granger-causality running from trade to environment as evidenced in the changing climatic condition and land degradation. Using Tanzania as the reference, VAR-Granger-causality test was employed to rationalize the conundrum of causal-effect relationship between trade and environment. The changing climatic condition, as the proxy of both nitrous oxide emissions (in thousand metric tons of CO₂ equivalent) and land degradation measured by the size of arable land were tested against trade using both exports and imports variables. The result indicated that neither of the trade variables Granger-cause the variability on gas emissions and arable land size. This suggests the possibility that all trade concerns in relation to environment to have been internalized in domestic policies to offset any likely negative consequence.

Keywords: environment, growth, impact, trade

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Authors: Laura Southgate

Abstract:

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as much of the scholarship on the organisation, celebrates its ability to uphold the principle of regional autonomy, understood as upholding the norm of non-intervention by external powers in regional affairs. Yet, in practice, this has been repeatedly violated. This dichotomy between rhetoric and practice suggests an interesting avenue for further study. The East Timor crisis (1975-1999) has been selected as a case-study to test the dynamics of ASEAN state resistance to sovereignty violation in two distinct timeframes: Indonesia’s initial invasion of the territory in 1975, and the ensuing humanitarian crisis in 1999 which resulted in a UN-mandated, Australian-led peacekeeping intervention force. These time-periods demonstrate variation on the dependent variable. It is necessary to observe covariation in order to derive observations in support of a causal theory. To establish covariation, my independent variable is therefore a continuous variable characterised by variation in convergence of interest. Change of this variable should change the value of the dependent variable, thus establishing causal direction. This paper investigates the history of ASEAN’s relationship to the norm of non-intervention. It offers an alternative understanding of ASEAN’s history, written in terms of the relationship between a key ASEAN state, which I call a ‘vanguard state’, and selected external powers. This paper will consider when ASEAN resistance to sovereignty violation has succeeded, and when it has failed. It will contend that variation in outcomes associated with vanguard state resistance to sovereignty violation can be best explained by levels of interest convergence between the ASEAN vanguard state and designated external actors. Evidence will be provided to support the hypothesis that in 1999, ASEAN’s failure to resist violations to the sovereignty of Indonesia was a consequence of low interest convergence between Indonesia and the external powers. Conversely, in 1975, ASEAN’s ability to resist violations to the sovereignty of Indonesia was a consequence of high interest convergence between Indonesia and the external powers. As the vanguard state, Indonesia was able to apply pressure on the ASEAN states and obtain unanimous support for Indonesia’s East Timor policy in 1975 and 1999. However, the key factor explaining the variance in outcomes in both time periods resides in the critical role played by external actors. This view represents a serious challenge to much of the existing scholarship that emphasises ASEAN’s ability to defend regional autonomy. As these cases attempt to show, ASEAN autonomy is much more contingent than portrayed in the existing literature.

Keywords: ASEAN, east timor, intervention, sovereignty

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