Search results for: point estimation

Authors: Cristobal García

Abstract:

The visual inspection of bolted joints in wind turbines is dangerous, expensive, and impractical due to the non-possibility to access the platform by workboat in certain sea state conditions, as well as the high costs derived from the transportation of maintenance technicians to offshore platforms located far away from the coast, especially if helicopters are involved. Consequently, the wind turbine operators have the need for simpler and less demanding techniques for the analysis of the bolts tightening. Vibration-based structural health monitoring is one of the oldest and most widely-used means for monitoring the health of onshore and offshore wind turbines. The core of this work is to find out if the modal parameters can be efficiently used as a key performance indicator (KPIs) for the assessment of joint bolts in a 1:50 scale tower of a floating offshore wind turbine (12 MW). A non-destructive vibration test is used to extract the vibration signals of the towers with different damage statuses. The procedure can be summarized in three consecutive steps. First, an artificial excitation is introduced by means of a commercial shaker mounted on the top of the tower. Second, the vibration signals of the towers are recorded for 8 s at a sampling rate of 20 kHz using an array of commercial accelerometers (Endevco, 44A16-1032). Third, the natural frequencies, damping, and overall vibration mode shapes are calculated using the software Siemens LMS 16A. Experiments show that the natural frequencies, damping, and mode shapes of the tower are directly dependent on the fixing conditions of the towers, and therefore, the variations of both parameters are a good indicator for the estimation of the static axial force acting in the bolt. Thus, this vibration-based structural method proposed can be potentially used as a diagnostic tool to evaluate the tightening torques of the bolted joints with the advantages of being an economical, straightforward, and multidisciplinary approach that can be applied for different typologies of connections by operation and maintenance technicians. In conclusion, TSI, in collaboration with the consortium of the FIBREGY project, is conducting innovative research where vibrations are utilized for the estimation of the tightening torque of a 1:50 scale steel-based tower prototype. The findings of this research carried out in the context of FIBREGY possess multiple implications for the assessment of the bolted joint integrity in multiple types of connections such as tower-to-nacelle, modular, tower-to-column, tube-to-tube, etc. This research is contextualized in the framework of the FIBREGY project. The EU-funded FIBREGY project (H2020, grant number 952966) will evaluate the feasibility of the design and construction of a new generation of marine renewable energy platforms using lightweight FRP materials in certain structural elements (e.g., tower, floating platform). The FIBREGY consortium is composed of 11 partners specialized in the offshore renewable energy sector and funded partially by the H2020 program of the European Commission with an overall budget of 8 million Euros.

Keywords: SHM, vibrations, connections, floating offshore platform

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: P. Selyshchev

Abstract:

We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.

Keywords: irradiation, primary defects, interaction, fluctuations

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Authors: Valerii Dashuk

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The usage of the confidence intervals in economics and econometrics is widespread. To be able to investigate a random variable more thoroughly, joint tests are applied. One of such examples is joint mean-variance test. A new approach for testing such hypotheses and constructing confidence sets is introduced. Exploring both the value of the random variable and its deviation with the help of this technique allows checking simultaneously the shift and the probability of that shift (i.e., portfolio risks). Another application is based on the normal distribution, which is fully defined by mean and variance, therefore could be tested using the introduced approach. This method is based on the difference of probability density functions. The starting point is two sets of normal distribution parameters that should be compared (whether they may be considered as identical with given significance level). Then the absolute difference in probabilities at each 'point' of the domain of these distributions is calculated. This measure is transformed to a function of cumulative distribution functions and compared to the critical values. Critical values table was designed from the simulations. The approach was compared with the other techniques for the univariate case. It differs qualitatively and quantitatively in easiness of implementation, computation speed, accuracy of the critical region (theoretical vs. real significance level). Stable results when working with outliers and non-normal distributions, as well as scaling possibilities, are also strong sides of the method. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility to extend it to infinite-dimension case, which was not possible in the most of the previous works. At the moment expansion to 2-dimensional state is done and it allows to test jointly up to 5 parameters. Therefore the derived technique is equivalent to classic tests in standard situations but gives more efficient alternatives in nonstandard problems and on big amounts of data.

Keywords: confidence set, cumulative distribution function, hypotheses testing, normal distribution, probability density function

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Authors: K. B. Rajasekarababu, J. Karthik, G. Vinayagamurthy

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This paper is intended to explain the influence of major axis on aerodynamic characteristics of elliptical section. Many engineering applications such as off shore structures, bridge piers, civil structures and pipelines can be modelled as a circular cylinder but flow over complex bodies like, submarines, Elliptical wing, fuselage, missiles, and rotor blades, in which the parameters such as axis ratio can influence the flow characteristics of the wake and nature of separation. Influence of Major axis in Flow characteristics of elliptical sections are examined both experimentally and computationally in this study. For this research, four elliptical models with varying major axis [*AR=1, 4, 6, 10] are analysed. Experimental works have been conducted in a subsonic wind tunnel. Furthermore, flow characteristics on elliptical model are predicted from k-ε turbulence model using the commercial CFD packages by pressure based transient solver with Standard wall conditions.The analysis can be extended to estimation and comparison of Drag coefficient and Fatigue analysis of elliptical sections.

Keywords: elliptical section, major axis, aerodynamic characteristics, k-ε turbulence model

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Authors: Fuad M. Alkoot

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We aim at highlighting the benefits of classifier systems especially in supporting educational management decisions. The paper aims at using classifiers in an educational application where an outcome is predicted based on given input parameters that represent various conditions at the institute. We present a classifier system that is designed using a limited training set with data for only one semester. The achieved system is able to reach at previously known outcomes accurately. It is also tested on new input parameters representing variations of input conditions to see its prediction on the possible outcome value. Given the supervised expectation of the outcome for the new input we find the system is able to predict the correct outcome. Experiments were conducted on one semester data from two departments only, Switching and Mathematics. Future work on other departments with larger training sets and wider input variations will show additional benefits of classifier systems in supporting the management decisions at an educational institute.

Keywords: machine learning, pattern recognition, classifier design, educational management, outcome estimation

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: Honggang Qu, Yong Xu, Rongmei Liu, Zhenji Gao, Bin Wang

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Today's mining industry is advancing gradually toward digital and visual direction. The three-dimensional visualization geological modeling of mine is the digital characterization of mineral deposits and is one of the key technology of digital mining. Three-dimensional geological modeling is a technology that combines geological spatial information management, geological interpretation, geological spatial analysis and prediction, geostatistical analysis, entity content analysis and graphic visualization in a three-dimensional environment with computer technology and is used in geological analysis. In this paper, the three-dimensional geological modeling of an iron mine through the use of Surpac is constructed, and the weight difference of the estimation methods between the distance power inverse ratio method and ordinary kriging is studied, and the ore body volume and reserves are simulated and calculated by using these two methods. Compared with the actual mine reserves, its result is relatively accurate, so it provides scientific bases for mine resource assessment, reserve calculation, mining design and so on.

Keywords: three-dimensional geological modeling, geological database, geostatistics, block model

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Authors: Mohand Kessal, Rachid Boucetta, Mourad Tikobaini, Mohammed Zamoum

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Leakage problem of two-component fluids flow is modeled for a transient one-dimensional homogeneous bubbly flow and developed by taking into account the effect of a leak located at the middle point of the pipeline. The corresponding three conservation equations are numerically resolved by an improved characteristic method. The obtained results are explained and commented in terms of physical impact on the flow parameters.

Keywords: fluid transients, pipelines leaks, method of characteristics, leakage problem

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Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

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The urban transit system is a critical part of a solution to the economic, energy, and environmental challenges. Furthermore, it ultimately contributes the improvement of people’s quality of lives. For taking these kinds of advantages, the city of Seoul has tried to construct an integrated transit system including both subway and buses. The effort led to the fact that approximately 6.9 million citizens use the integrated transit system every day for their trips. Diagnosing the current transit network is a significant task to provide more convenient and pleasant transit environment. Therefore, the critical objective of this study is to establish a methodological framework for the analysis of an integrated bus-subway network and to examine the relationship between subway ridership and parameters such as network topology measures, bus demand, and a variety of commercial business facilities. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, many previous studies relied on Ordinary Least Square regression, but there was lack of studies considering the endogeneity issues which might show in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of integrated transit network topology measures and endogenous effect of bus demand on subway ridership. It could ultimately contribute to developing more accurate subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers Seoul city in South Korea, and it includes 243 subway stations and 10,120 bus stops with the temporal scope set during twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The subway and bus ridership information in detail was collected from the Seoul Smart Card data in 2015 and 2016. First, integrated subway-bus network topology measures which have characteristics regarding connectivity, centrality, transitivity, and reciprocity were estimated based on the complex network theory. The results of integrated transit network topology analysis were compared to subway-only network topology. Also, the non-recursive approach which is Three-Stage Least Square was applied to develop the daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity between bus and subway demands. Independent variables included roadway geometry, commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. Consequently, it was found that network topology measures were significant size effect. Especially, centrality measures showed that the elasticity was a change of 4.88% for closeness centrality, 24.48% for betweenness centrality while the elasticity of bus ridership was 8.85%. Moreover, it was proved that bus demand and subway ridership were endogenous in a non-recursive manner as showing that predicted bus ridership and predicted subway ridership is statistically significant in OLS regression models. Therefore, it shows that three-stage least square model appears to be a plausible model for efficient subway ridership estimation. It is expected that the proposed approach provides a reliable guideline that can be used as part of the spectrum of tools for evaluating a city-wide integrated transit network.

Keywords: integrated transit system, network topology measures, three-stage least squared, endogeneity, subway ridership

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Authors: Dina Kon Mushid, Kabutakapua Kakanda, Dibu Dave Mbako

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The failure of material usually involves elastoplastic deformation and fracturing. Continuum mechanics can effectively deal with plastic deformation by using a yield function and the flow rule. At the same time, it has some limitations in dealing with the fracture problem since it is a theory based on the continuous field hypothesis. The lattice model can simulate the fracture problem very well, but it is inadequate for dealing with plastic deformation. Based on the discretized virtual internal bond model (DVIB), this paper proposes a lattice model that can account for plasticity. DVIB is a lattice method that considers material to comprise bond cells. Each bond cell may have any geometry with a finite number of bonds. The two-body or multi-body potential can characterize the strain energy of a bond cell. The two-body potential leads to the fixed Poisson ratio, while the multi-body potential can overcome the limitation of the fixed Poisson ratio. In the present paper, the modified Stillinger-Weber (SW), a multi-body potential, is employed to characterize the bond cell energy. The SW potential is composed of two parts. One part is the two-body potential that describes the interatomic interactions between particles. Another is the three-body potential that represents the bond angle interactions between particles. Because the SW interaction can represent the bond stretch and bond angle contribution, the SW potential-based DVIB (SW-DVIB) can represent the various Poisson ratios. To embed the plasticity in the SW-DVIB, the plasticity is considered in the two-body part of the SW potential. It is done by reducing the bond stiffness to a lower level once the bond reaches the yielding point. While before the bond reaches the yielding point, the bond is elastic. When the bond deformation exceeds the yielding point, the bond stiffness is softened to a lower value. When unloaded, irreversible deformation occurs. With the bond length increasing to a critical value, termed the failure bond length, the bond fails. The critical failure bond length is related to the cell size and the macro fracture energy. By this means, the fracture energy is conserved so that the cell size sensitivity problem is relieved to a great extent. In addition, the plasticity and the fracture are also unified at the bond level. To make the DVIB able to simulate different Poisson ratios, the three-body part of the SW potential is kept elasto-brittle. The bond angle can bear the moment before the bond angle increment is smaller than a critical value. By this method, the SW-DVIB can simulate the plastic deformation and the fracturing process of material with various Poisson ratios. The elastoplastic SW-DVIB is used to simulate the plastic deformation of a material, the plastic fracturing process, and the tunnel plastic deformation. It has been shown that the current SW-DVIB method is straightforward in simulating both elastoplastic deformation and plastic fracture.

Keywords: lattice model, discretized virtual internal bond, elastoplastic deformation, fracture, modified stillinger-weber potential

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Authors: Nicola Colaninno, Eugenio Morello

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The urban environment affects local-to-global climate and, in turn, suffers global warming phenomena, with worrying impacts on human well-being, health, social and economic activities. Physic-morphological features of the built-up space affect urban air temperature, locally, causing the urban environment to be warmer compared to surrounding rural. This occurrence, typically known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI), is normally assessed by means of air temperature from fixed weather stations and/or traverse observations or based on remotely sensed Land Surface Temperatures (LST). The information provided by ground weather stations is key for assessing local air temperature. However, the spatial coverage is normally limited due to low density and uneven distribution of the stations. Although different interpolation techniques such as Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Ordinary Kriging (OK), or Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) are used to estimate air temperature from observed points, such an approach may not effectively reflect the real climatic conditions of an interpolated point. Quantifying local UHI for extensive areas based on weather stations’ observations only is not practicable. Alternatively, the use of thermal remote sensing has been widely investigated based on LST. Data from Landsat, ASTER, or MODIS have been extensively used. Indeed, LST has an indirect but significant influence on air temperatures. However, high-resolution near-surface air temperature (NSAT) is currently difficult to retrieve. Here we have experimented Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) as an effective approach to enable NSAT estimation by accounting for spatial non-stationarity of the phenomenon. The model combines on-site measurements of air temperature, from fixed weather stations and satellite-derived LST. The approach is structured upon two main steps. First, a GWR model has been set to estimate NSAT at low resolution, by combining air temperature from discrete observations retrieved by weather stations (dependent variable) and the LST from satellite observations (predictor). At this step, MODIS data, from Terra satellite, at 1 kilometer of spatial resolution have been employed. Two time periods are considered according to satellite revisit period, i.e. 10:30 am and 9:30 pm. Afterward, the results have been downscaled at 30 meters of spatial resolution by setting a GWR model between the previously retrieved near-surface air temperature (dependent variable), the multispectral information as provided by the Landsat mission, in particular the albedo, and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), both at 30 meters. Albedo and DEM are now the predictors. The area under investigation is the Metropolitan City of Milan, which covers an area of approximately 1,575 km2 and encompasses a population of over 3 million inhabitants. Both models, low- (1 km) and high-resolution (30 meters), have been validated according to a cross-validation that relies on indicators such as R2, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). All the employed indicators give evidence of highly efficient models. In addition, an alternative network of weather stations, available for the City of Milano only, has been employed for testing the accuracy of the predicted temperatures, giving and RMSE of 0.6 and 0.7 for daytime and night-time, respectively.

Keywords: urban climate, urban heat island, geographically weighted regression, remote sensing

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Authors: Samba Raju, Chiluveru, Manoj Tripathy

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Intelligibility is an essential characteristic of a speech signal, which is used to help in the understanding of information in speech signal. Background noise in the environment can deteriorate the intelligibility of a recorded speech. In this paper, we presented a simple variance subtracted - variable level discrete wavelet transform, which improve the intelligibility of speech. The proposed algorithm does not require an explicit estimation of noise, i.e., prior knowledge of the noise; hence, it is easy to implement, and it reduces the computational burden. The proposed algorithm decides a separate decomposition level for each frame based on signal dominant and dominant noise criteria. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated with speech intelligibility measure (STOI), and results obtained are compared with Universal Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) thresholding and Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) methods. The experimental results revealed that the proposed scheme outperformed competing methods

Keywords: discrete wavelet transform, speech intelligibility, STOI, standard deviation

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Authors: Mourad Zmami Oussema BenSalha

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The current research aims to assess empirically the reaction of private investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia using a sample of 548 firms operating in manufacturing industries between 1997 and 2002. The micro-econometric model we estimate is based on an accelerator-profit specification investment model increased by two variables that measure the variation and the volatility of exchange rates. Estimates using the system the GMM method reveal that the effects of the exchange rate depreciation on investment are negative since it increases the cost of imported capital goods. Turning to the exchange rate volatility, as measured by the GARCH (1,1) model, our findings assign a significant role to the exchange rate uncertainty in explaining the sluggishness of private investment in Tunisia in the full sample of firms. Other estimation attempts based on various sub samples indicate that the elasticities of investment relative to the exchange rate volatility depend upon many firms’ specific characteristics such as the size and the ownership structure.

Keywords: investment, exchange rate volatility, manufacturing firms, system GMM, Tunisia

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Authors: Shama Urooj

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The present work investigates the relationship among financial inclusion, modernization, and energy performance in SCO member countries during the years 2011–2021. PCA is used to create composite indexes of financial inclusion, modernization, and energy performance. We used panel regression models that are both reliable and heteroscedasticity-consistent to look at the relationship among variables. The findings indicate that financial inclusion (FI) and modernization, along with the increased FDI, all appear to contribute to the energy performance in the SCO member countries. However, per capita GDP has a negative impact on energy performance. These results are unbiased and consistent with the robust results obtained by applying different econometric models. Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) estimation is also used for checking the uniformity of the main model results. This research work concludes that there has been no policy coherence in SCO member countries regarding the coordination of growing financial inclusion and modernization for energy sustainability in recent years. In order to improve energy performance with modern development, policies regarding financial inclusion and modernization need be integrated both at national as well as international levels.

Keywords: financial inclusion, energy performance, modernization, technological development, SCO.

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Authors: Eun Kyung Kim, Kyehan Rhee

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Viscoelastic wall properties of the arterial plaques change as the disease progresses, and estimation of wall viscoelasticity can provide a valuable assessment tool for plaque rupture prediction. Cross section of the stenotic coronary artery was modeled based on the IVUS image, and the finite element analysis was performed to get wall deformation under pulsatile pressure. The effects of viscoelastic parameters of the plaque on luminal diameter variations were explored. The result showed that decrease of viscous effect reduced the phase angle between the pressure and displacement waveforms, and phase angle was dependent on the viscoelastic properties of the wall. Because viscous effect of tissue components could be identified using the phase angle difference, wall deformation waveform analysis may be applied to predict plaque wall composition change and vascular wall disease progression.

Keywords: atherosclerotic plaque, diameter variation, finite element method, viscoelasticity

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Authors: Valmir Moratelli

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This paper discusses the construction of the narrative of television fiction from the point of view of the invisibility of the representation of elderly black characters. Through the appointment of social and contemporary elements, we analyze why the theme of old age of black people is practically non-existent in brazilian soap operas of TV Globo. By raising characteristic aspects of the leaflet narrative, we want to discuss how the cancellation of identity discourses about elderly blacks and their relationship with aspects of social life is constructed.

Keywords: audiovisual, black, erderly, television

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Pule P. Mpopetsi, Warren M. Potts, Nicola James, Amber Childs

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Increased CO₂ production and the consequent ocean acidification (OA) have been identified as one of the greatest threats to both calcifying and non-calcifying marine organisms. Traditionally, marine fishes, as non-calcifying organisms, were considered to have a higher tolerance to near-future OA conditions owing to their well-developed ion regulatory mechanisms. However, recent studies provide evidence to suggest that they may not be as resilient to near-future OA conditions as previously thought. In addition, earlier life stages of marine fishes are thought to be less tolerant than juveniles and adults of the same species as they lack well-developed ion regulatory mechanisms for maintaining homeostasis. This study focused on the effects of near-future OA on larval Argyrosomus japonicus, an estuarine-dependent marine fish species, in order to identify the tipping point of tolerance for the larvae of this species. Larval A. japonicus in the present study were reared from the egg up to 22 days after hatching (DAH) under three treatments. The three treatments, (pCO₂ 353 µatm; pH 8.03), (pCO₂ 451 µatm; pH 7.93) and (pCO₂ 602 µatm; pH 7.83) corresponded to levels predicted to occur in year 2050, 2068 and 2090 respectively under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (IPCC RCP) 8.5 model. Size-at-hatch, growth, development, and metabolic responses (standard and active metabolic rates and metabolic scope) were assessed and compared between the three treatments throughout the rearing period. Five earlier larval life stages (hatchling – flexion/post-flexion) were identified by the end of the experiment. There were no significant differences in size-at-hatch (p > 0.05), development or the active metabolic (p > 0.05) or metabolic scope (p > 0.05) of fish in the three treatments throughout the study. However, the standard metabolic rate was significantly higher in the year 2068 treatment but only at the flexion/post-flexion stage which could be attributed to differences in developmental rates (including the development of the gills) between the 2068 and the other two treatments. Overall, the metabolic scope was narrowest in the 2090 treatment but varied according to life stage. Although not significantly different, metabolic scope in the 2090 treatment was noticeably lower at the flexion stage compared to the other two treatments, and the development appeared slower, suggesting that this could be the stage most prone to OA. The study concluded that, in isolation, OA levels predicted to occur between 2050 and 2090 will not negatively affect size-at-hatch, growth, development, and metabolic responses of larval A. japonicus up to 22 DAH (flexion/post-flexion stage). The present study also identified the tipping point of tolerance (where negative impacts will begin) in larvae of the species to be between the years 2090 and 2100.

Keywords: climate change, ecology, marine, ocean acidification

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Authors: Kayode Balogun, Femi Ayoola

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Crime is at alarming rate in this part of world and there are many factors that are contributing to this antisocietal behaviour both among the youths and old. In this work, principal component analysis (PCA) was used as a tool to reduce the dimensionality and to really know those variables that were crime prone in the study region. Data were collected on twenty-eight crime variables from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) databank for a period of fifteen years, while retaining as much of the information as possible. We use PCA in this study to know the number of major variables and contributors to the crime in the Southwest Nigeria. The results of our analysis revealed that there were eight principal variables have been retained using the Scree plot and Loading plot which implies an eight-equation solution will be appropriate for the data. The eight components explained 93.81% of the total variation in the data set. We also found that the highest and commonly committed crimes in the Southwestern Nigeria were: Assault, Grievous Harm and Wounding, theft/stealing, burglary, house breaking, false pretence, unlawful arms possession and breach of public peace.

Keywords: crime rates, data, Southwest Nigeria, principal component analysis, variables

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Authors: Maru R., Singh V. P.

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In this research, analytical study of the flexural strength of Concrete Filled Steel Tube (CFST) beams is carried out based on wide-range finite element models to obtain the better perspective for flexural strength achievement with the use of ABAQUS finite element program. This work adopts concrete damaged plasticity model to get the actual simulation of CFST under bending. To get the decent interaction between concrete and steel, normal and tangential surface interaction provided by ABAQUS is used with hard contact for normal surface interaction and for 0.65 friction coefficient for tangential surface interactions. In this study, rectangular and square CFST beam model cross-sections are adopted with its limits pertained to Eurocode specifications. To get the visualization for flexural strength of CFST beams, total of 74 rectangular CFST beams and 86 square CFST beams are used with four-point bending test setup and the length of the beam model as 1000mm. The grades of concrete and grades of steel are used as 30 MPa & 35MPa and 235 MPa and 275MPa respectively for both sections to get the confinement factor 0.583 to 2.833, steel ratio of 0.069 to 0.236 and length to depth ratio of 4.167 to 16.667. It was found based on this study that flexural strength of CFST beams falls around strain of 0.012. Eurocode provides the results harmonically with finite elemental results. It was also noted for square sections that reduction of steel ratio is not useful as compared to rectangular section although it increases moment capacity up to certain limits because for square sectional area similar to that of rectangular, it possesses lesser depth than rectangular sections. Also It can be said that effect of increment of grade of concrete can be achieved when thicker steel tube is present. It is observed that there is less increment in moment capacity initially but after D/b ratio 1.2, moment capacity of CFST beam rapidly.

Keywords: ABAQUS, CFST beams, flexural strength, four-point bending, rectangular and square sections

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Authors: Mathilde Blondon, Salla Aicha Dieng, Catherine Pfister

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In a paradoxical way, teenagers nowadays seem to use suicidal attempts to elaborate on their trauma abuses and regain some kind of control in their lives. As their behavior becomes life-threatening, the hospital offers a variety of expertise to address their need, with Child Protective Services also joining in, to a point when teenagers could have a feeling of losing control of their lives, which results in them making more suicidal attempts. Our goal here is to walk with these foster teenagers long enough to step therapy up first, then as their mental health is restored enough to step the therapy down in a way that is secure and will give them their life back. This would prevent them from making suicidal attempts to get a feeling of control over their life. We’ll present a clinical case of a 14-year-old girl named Sofia, who was suffering from parental deprivation, an identity disorder, and severe depression disorder. Our intervention took place in January 2024, after Sofia had undergone four hospitalizations, including a two-month period in a specialized clinic. In a stepping-up effort, a substantial setting has been built around Sofia. She was coming three days a week to therapeutic activities at the Child Psychiatry Day Hospital, she had one psychotherapy session a week at the Medical-Psychological Center, and she was meeting with the Adolescent Psychiatrist on a regular basis. However, her suicidal attempts frequency continued to increase to the point when she couldn’t stay more than four days outside the hospital unit without harming herself and being brought back to the Emergency Unit. We were all stuck in some kind of medical deadlock, writing to clinics that had no room for her while social workers were calling foster homes that wouldn’t even accept her either. At some point, a clinical decision was made by the psychiatrist to stop what appeared to be a global movement of traumatic repetition, which involved Sofia’s family, the medical team and the social workers as one. This decision to step therapy down created a surprise and put an end to the cycle. It provided a new path, a new solution where Sofia could securely settle without being unfaithful to her family. Her suicidal attempts stopped for four weeks. She had one relapse, then didn’t make another attempt so far. There is a fine line between too little and too much, a pathway with the right amount of care and support. We believe it is not a steady line but rather a path up and down the hill. It’s about building up this moment when medication and mental processes have improved the subject’s condition enough to allow the medical team to step therapy down and give more control back to the subject. These needed variations used to come from a change of hospital or medical team. Stepped care avoids any breaking of bonds and appears to be decisive in stopping teenagers’ suicidal attempts.

Keywords: child protection, adolescent psychiatry, teenager suicidal attempt, foster teenagers, parental deprivation, stepped care

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Authors: Haniye Dehestani, Yadollah Ordokhani

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In this work, we present an efficient approach for solving variable-order time-fractional partial differential equations, which are based on Legendre and Laguerre polynomials. First, we introduced the pseudo-operational matrices of integer and variable fractional order of integration by use of some properties of Riemann-Liouville fractional integral. Then, applied together with collocation method and Legendre-Laguerre functions for solving variable-order time-fractional partial differential equations. Also, an estimation of the error is presented. At last, we investigate numerical examples which arise in physics to demonstrate the accuracy of the present method. In comparison results obtained by the present method with the exact solution and the other methods reveals that the method is very effective.

Keywords: collocation method, fractional partial differential equations, legendre-laguerre functions, pseudo-operational matrix of integration

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Authors: Abdelsalam Elawwad, Mostafa Ragab, Hisham Abdel-Halim

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Leakage in sewerage system can cause groundwater and soil contamination in urban areas, especially in area with a high groundwater table. This is a serious problem in small villages in developing countries that rely on ground water as a source for irrigation and drinking purposes. In the developed countries, the recent trend in areas with low population densities is vacuum sewerage system, which is environmentally safer than conventional gravity system, protecting public health, preventing exfiltration to the ground water, very easily applied in a relatively short time and can cope with a faster expansion of the urbanized areas. The aim of this work is to assess the feasibility of using vacuum sewerage in developing country, such as Egypt. Knowledge of local conditions can determine the most suitable sewer system for a specific region. Technical, environmental and financial comparisons between conventional sewerage system and vacuum sewerage system were held using statistical analysis. Different conditions, such as population densities, geometry of area, and ground water depths were evaluated. Sample comprising of 30 Egyptian villages was selected, where a complete design for conventional sewerage system and vacuum sewerage system was done. Based on this study, it is recommended from the environmental point of view to construct the vacuum sewerage system in such villages with low population densities; however, it is not economic for all cases. From financial point of view, vacuum sewerage system was a good competitor to conventional systems in flat areas and areas with high groundwater table. The local market supplying of the construction equipment especially collection chambers will greatly affect the investment cost. Capacity building and social mobilization will also play a great role in sustainability of this system. At the end, it is noteworthy that environmental sustainability and public health are more important than the financial aspects.

Keywords: ground water, conventional system, vacuum system, statistics, cost, density, terrain

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Authors: H. Barati, M. Wu, A. Kharicha, A. Ludwig

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A transient model for nozzle clogging has been developed and successfully validated against a laboratory experiment. Key steps of clogging are considered: transport of particles by turbulent flow towards the nozzle wall; interactions between fluid flow and nozzle wall, and the adhesion of the particle on the wall; the growth of the clog layer and its interaction with the flow. The current paper is to investigate the mesh (size and type) sensitivity of the model in both two and three dimensions. It is found that the algorithm for clog growth alone excluding the flow effect is insensitive to the mesh type and size, but the calculation including flow becomes sensitive to the mesh quality. The use of 2D meshes leads to overestimation of the clog growth because the 3D nature of flow in the boundary layer cannot be properly solved by 2D calculation. 3D simulation with tetrahedron mesh can also lead to an error estimation of the clog growth. A mesh-independent result can be achieved with hexahedral mesh, or at least with triangular prism (inflation layer) for near-wall regions.

Keywords: clogging, continuous casting, inclusion, simulation, submerged entry nozzle

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Authors: Ahmed El Naggar, Homyan Saleh

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Dams are crucial for flood control, water supply, and the creation of hydroelectric power. Every dam has a water conveyance system, such as a spillway, providing the safe discharge of catastrophic floods when necessary. Spillway design has historically been investigated in laboratory research owing to the absence of suitable full-scale flow monitoring equipment and safety problems. Prototype measurements of aerated flows are urgently needed to quantify projected scale effects and provide missing validation data for design guidelines and numerical simulations. In this work, an image-based investigation of free-surface flows on a tiered spillway was undertaken at the laboratory (fixed camera installation) and prototype size (drone video) (drone footage) (drone footage). The drone videos were generated using data from citizen science. Analyses permitted the measurement of the free-surface aeration inception point, air-water surface velocities, fluctuations, and residual energy at the chute's downstream end from a remote site. The prototype observations offered full-scale proof of concept, while laboratory results were efficiently confirmed against invasive phase-detection probe data. This paper stresses the efficacy of image-based analyses at prototype spillways. It highlights how citizen science data may enable academics better understand real-world air-water flow dynamics and offers a framework for a small collection of long-missing prototype data.

Keywords: remote sensing, aerated flows, large dams, proof of concept, dam spillways, air-water flows, prototype operation, remote sensing, inception point, optical flow, turbulence, residual energy

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Authors: Ben Nwokenkwo, Michael M. Eze, Felix Ike

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The need to study trends in land values around institutions of higher learning cannot be overemphasized. Numerous studies in Nigeria have investigated the economic, and social influence of the sitting of institutions of higher learning at the micro, meso and macro levels. However, very few studies have evaluated the temporal extent at which such institution influences local land values. Since institutions greatly influence both the physical and environmental aspects of their immediate vicinity, attention must be taken to understand the influence of such changes on land values. This study examines the trend in land values using the Mann-Kendall analysis in order to determine if, between its beginning and end, a monotonic increase, decrease or stability exist in the land values across six institutions of higher learning for the period between 2004 and 2014. Specifically, The analysis was applied to the time series of the price(or value) of the land .The results of this study revealed that land values has either been increasing or remained stabled across all the institution sampled. The study finally recommends measures that can be put in place as counter magnets for land values estimation across institutions of higher learning.

Keywords: influence, land, trend, value

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Authors: Mario Belseran

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The issue of climate change become world attention where one of them increase in air temperature due to greenhouse gas emissions. This climate change is caused by gases in the atmosphere, one of which is CO2. DKI Jakarta as the capital has a dense population with a variety of existing land use. Land use that is dominated by settlements resulting in fewer green space, which functions to absorb atmospheric CO2. Image interpretation SPOT-7 is used to determine the greenness level of vegetation on a green space using the vegetation index NDVI, EVI, GNDVI and OSAVI. Measuring the diameter and height of trees were also performed to obtain the value of biomass that will be used as the CO2 absorption value. The CO2 absorption value that spread in Jakarta are classified into three classes: high, medium, and low. The distribution pattern of CO2 absorption value at green space in Jakarta dominance in the medium class with the distribution pattern is located in South Jakarta, East Jakarta, North Jakarta and West Jakarta. The distribution pattern of green space in Jakarta scattered randomly and more dominate in East Jakarta and South Jakarta

Keywords: carbon dioxide, DKI Jakarta, green space, SPOT-7, vegetation index

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Authors: Jun Ha Whang

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As New York City weathers a swelling 'affordability crisis' marked by rapid transformation in land development and urban culture, much of the associated scholarly debate has turned to questions of the underlying mechanisms of gentrification. Though classically approached from the point of view of urban planning, increasingly these questions have been addressed with an eye to understanding the role of cultural capital in neighborhood valuation. This paper will examine the construction of an artist-specific affordable housing development in the Spanish Harlem neighborhood of Manhattan in order to identify and discuss several cultural parameters of gentrification. This study’s goal is not to argue that the development in question, named Art space PS 109, straightforwardly increases or decreases the rate of gentrification in Spanish Harlem, but rather to study dynamics present in the construction of Art space PS 109 as a case study considered against the broader landscape of gentrification in New York, particularly with respect to the impact of artist communities on housing supply. In the end, what Art space PS 109 most valuably offers us is a reference point for a comparative analysis of affordable housing strategies currently being pursued within municipal government. Our study of Art space PS 109 has allowed us to examine a microcosm of the city’s response and evaluate its overall strategy accordingly. As a base line, the city must aggressively pursue an affordability strategy specifically suited to the needs of each of its neighborhoods. It must also conduct this in such a way so as not to undermine its own efforts by rendering them susceptible to the exploitative involvement of real estate developers seeking to identify successive waves of trendy neighborhoods. Though Art space PS 109 offers an invaluable resource for the city’s legitimate aim of preserving its artist communities, with such a high inclusion rate of artists from outside of the community the project risks additional displacement, strongly suggesting the need for further study of the implications of sites of cultural capital for neighborhood planning.

Keywords: artist housing, displacement, east Harlem, urban planning

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Authors: Apoorva Bamal, Agnieszka Indiana Olbert

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Floods are known to be one of the most devastating hydro-climatic events, impacting a wide range of stakeholders in terms of environmental, social and economic losses. With difference in inundation durations and level of impact, flood hazards are of different degrees and strength. Amongst various set of domains being impacted by floods, environmental degradation in terms of water quality deterioration is one of the majorly effected but less highlighted domains across the world. The degraded water quality is caused by numerous natural and anthropogenic factors that are both point and non-point sources of pollution. Therefore, it is essential to understand the nature and source of the water pollution due to flooding. The major impact of floods is not only on the physico-chemical water quality parameters, but also on the biological elements leading to a vivid influence on the aquatic ecosystem. This deteriorated water quality is impacting many water categories viz. agriculture, drinking water, aquatic habitat, and miscellaneous services requiring an appropriate water quality to survive. This study identifies, reviews, evaluates and assesses multiple researches done across the world to determine the impact of floods on water quality. With a detailed statistical analysis of top relevant researches, this study is a synopsis of the methods used in assessment of impact of floods on water quality in different geographies, and identifying the gaps for further abridgement. As per majority of the studies, different flood magnitudes have varied impact on the water quality parameters leading to either increased or decreased values as compared to the recommended values for various categories. There is also an evident shift of the biological elements in the impacted waters leading to a change in its phenology and inhabitants of the specified water body. This physical, chemical and biological water quality degradation by floods is dependent upon its duration, extent, magnitude and flow direction. Therefore, this research provides an overview into the multiple impacts of floods on water quality, along with a roadmap of way forward to an efficient and uniform linkage of floods and impacted water quality dynamics.

Keywords: floods, statistical analysis, water pollution, water quality

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Authors: Muluegziabher Semagne Mekonnen

Abstract:

This study was intended to show the irrigation water requirements and evaluation of canal hydraulics steady state conditions to improve on scheme performance of the Meki-Ziway irrigation project. The methodology used was the CROPWAT 8.0 model to estimate the irrigation water requirements of five major crops irrigated in the study area. The results showed that for the whole existing and potential irrigation development area of 2000 ha and 2599 ha, crop water requirements were 3,339,200 and 4,339,090.4 m³, respectively. Hydraulic simulation models are fundamental tools for understanding the hydraulic flow characteristics of irrigation systems. Hydraulic simulation models are fundamental tools for understanding the hydraulic flow characteristics of irrigation systems. In this study Hydraulic Analysis of Irrigation Canals Using HEC-RAS Model was conducted in Meki-Ziway Irrigation Scheme. The HEC-RAS model was tested in terms of error estimation and used to determine canal capacity potential.

Keywords: HEC-RAS, irrigation, hydraulic. canal reach, capacity

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Authors: Hafida Bouarfa, Mohamed Abed

Abstract:

The main object of our work is the development and the validation of a system indicated Fuzzy Vulnerability. Fuzzy Vulnerability uses a fuzzy representation in order to tolerate the imprecision during the description of construction. At the the second phase, we evaluated the similarity between the vulnerability of a new construction and those of the whole of the historical cases. This similarity is evaluated on two levels: 1) individual similarity: bases on the fuzzy techniques of aggregation; 2) Global similarity: uses the increasing monotonous linguistic quantifiers (RIM) to combine the various individual similarities between two constructions. The third phase of the process of Fuzzy Vulnerability consists in using vulnerabilities of historical constructions narrowly similar to current construction to deduce its estimate vulnerability. We validated our system by using 50 cases. We evaluated the performances of Fuzzy Vulnerability on the basis of two basic criteria, the precision of the estimates and the tolerance of the imprecision along the process of estimation. The comparison was done with estimates made by tiresome and long models. The results are satisfactory.

Keywords: case based reasoning, fuzzy logic, fuzzy case based reasoning, seismic vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 292