Search results for: loss model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19671

Search results for: loss model

17961 On the Use of Analytical Performance Models to Design a High-Performance Active Queue Management Scheme

Authors: Shahram Jamali, Samira Hamed

Abstract:

One of the open issues in Random Early Detection (RED) algorithm is how to set its parameters to reach high performance for the dynamic conditions of the network. Although original RED uses fixed values for its parameters, this paper follows a model-based approach to upgrade performance of the RED algorithm. It models the routers queue behavior by using the Markov model and uses this model to predict future conditions of the queue. This prediction helps the proposed algorithm to make some tunings over RED's parameters and provide efficiency and better performance. Widespread packet level simulations confirm that the proposed algorithm, called Markov-RED, outperforms RED and FARED in terms of queue stability, bottleneck utilization and dropped packets count.

Keywords: active queue management, RED, Markov model, random early detection algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 543
17960 Singularization: A Technique for Protecting Neural Networks

Authors: Robert Poenaru, Mihail Pleşa

Abstract:

In this work, a solution that addresses the protection of pre-trained neural networks is developed: Singularization. This method involves applying permutations to the weight matrices of a pre-trained model, introducing a form of structured noise that obscures the original model’s architecture. These permutations make it difficult for an attacker to reconstruct the original model, even if the permuted weights are obtained. Experimental benchmarks indicate that the application of singularization has a profound impact on model performance, often degrading it to the point where retraining from scratch becomes necessary to recover functionality, which is particularly effective for securing intellectual property in neural networks. Moreover, unlike other approaches, singularization is lightweight and computationally efficient, which makes it well suited for resource-constrained environments. Our experiments also demonstrate that this technique performs efficiently in various image classification tasks, highlighting its broad applicability and practicality in real-world scenarios.

Keywords: machine learning, ANE, CNN, security

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17959 Mathematical Model to Simulate Liquid Metal and Slag Accumulation, Drainage and Heat Transfer in Blast Furnace Hearth

Authors: Hemant Upadhyay, Tarun Kumar Kundu

Abstract:

It is utmost important for a blast furnace operator to understand the mechanisms governing the liquid flow, accumulation, drainage and heat transfer between various phases in blast furnace hearth for a stable and efficient blast furnace operation. Abnormal drainage behavior may lead to high liquid build up in the hearth. Operational problems such as pressurization, low wind intake, and lower material descent rates, normally be encountered if the liquid levels in the hearth exceed a critical limit when Hearth coke and Deadman start to float. Similarly, hot metal temperature is an important parameter to be controlled in the BF operation; it should be kept at an optimal level to obtain desired product quality and a stable BF performance. It is not possible to carry out any direct measurement of above due to the hostile conditions in the hearth with chemically aggressive hot liquids. The objective here is to develop a mathematical model to simulate the variation in hot metal / slag accumulation and temperature during the tapping of the blast furnace based on the computed drainage rate, production rate, mass balance, heat transfer between metal and slag, metal and solids, slag and solids as well as among the various zones of metal and slag itself. For modeling purpose, the BF hearth is considered as a pressurized vessel, filled with solid coke particles. Liquids trickle down in hearth from top and accumulate in voids between the coke particles which are assumed thermally saturated. A set of generic mass balance equations gives the amount of metal and slag intake in hearth. A small drainage (tap hole) is situated at the bottom of the hearth and flow rate of liquids from tap hole is computed taking in account the amount of both the phases accumulated their level in hearth, pressure from gases in the furnace and erosion behaviors of tap hole itself. Heat transfer equations provide the exchange of heat between various layers of liquid metal and slag, and heat loss to cooling system through refractories. Based on all that information a dynamic simulation is carried out which provides real time information of liquids accumulation in hearth before and during tapping, drainage rate and its variation, predicts critical event timings during tapping and expected tapping temperature of metal and slag on preset time intervals. The model is in use at JSPL, India BF-II and its output is regularly cross-checked with actual tapping data, which are in good agreement.

Keywords: blast furnace, hearth, deadman, hotmetal

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17958 Prediction of the Tunnel Fire Flame Length by Hybrid Model of Neural Network and Genetic Algorithms

Authors: Behzad Niknam, Kourosh Shahriar, Hassan Madani

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates the applicability of Hybrid Neural Networks that combine with back propagation networks (BPN) and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) for predicting the flame length of tunnel fire A hybrid neural network model has been developed to predict the flame length of tunnel fire based parameters such as Fire Heat Release rate, air velocity, tunnel width, height and cross section area. The network has been trained with experimental data obtained from experimental work. The hybrid neural network model learned the relationship for predicting the flame length in just 3000 training epochs. After successful learning, the model predicted the flame length.

Keywords: tunnel fire, flame length, ANN, genetic algorithm

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17957 Biomechanical Performance of the Synovial Capsule of the Glenohumeral Joint with a BANKART Lesion through Finite Element Analysis

Authors: Duvert A. Puentes T., Javier A. Maldonado E., Ivan Quintero., Diego F. Villegas

Abstract:

Mechanical Computation is a great tool to study the performance of complex models. An example of it is the study of the human body structure. This paper took advantage of different types of software to make a 3D model of the glenohumeral joint and apply a finite element analysis. The main objective was to study the change in the biomechanical properties of the joint when it presents an injury. Specifically, a BANKART lesion, which consists in the detachment of the anteroinferior labrum from the glenoid. Stress and strain distribution of the soft tissues were the focus of this study. First, a 3D model was made of a joint without any pathology, as a control sample, using segmentation software for the bones with the support of medical imagery and a cadaveric model to represent the soft tissue. The joint was built to simulate a compression and external rotation test using CAD to prepare the model in the adequate position. When the healthy model was finished, it was submitted to a finite element analysis and the results were validated with experimental model data. With the validated model, it was sensitized to obtain the best mesh measurement. Finally, the geometry of the 3D model was changed to imitate a BANKART lesion. Then, the contact zone of the glenoid with the labrum was slightly separated simulating a tissue detachment. With this new geometry, the finite element analysis was applied again, and the results were compared with the control sample created initially. With the data gathered, this study can be used to improve understanding of the labrum tears. Nevertheless, it is important to remember that the computational analysis are approximations and the initial data was taken from an in vitro assay.

Keywords: biomechanics, computational model, finite elements, glenohumeral joint, bankart lesion, labrum

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17956 Role of Onion Extract for Neuro-Protection in Experimental Stroke Model

Authors: Richa Shri, Varinder Singh, Kundan Singh Bora, Abhishek Bhanot, Rahul Kumar, Amit Kumar, Ravinder Kaur

Abstract:

The term ‘neuroprotection’ means preserving/salvaging function and structure of neurons. Neuroprotection is an adjunctive treatment option for neurodegenerative disorders. Oxidative stress is considered a major culprit in neurodegenerative disorders; hence, management strategies include use of antioxidants. Our search for a neuroprotective agent began with Allium cepa L. or onions, (family Amaryllidaceae) - a potent antioxidant. We have investigated the neuroprotective potential of onions in experimental models of ischemic stroke, diabetic neuropathy, neuropathic pain, and dementia. In pre and post-ischemic stroke model, the methanol extract of outer scales of onion bulbs (MEOS) prevented memory loss and motor in-coordination; reduced oxidative stress and cerebral infarct size. This also prevented and ameliorated diabetic neuropathy in mice. The MEOS was fractionated to yield a flavonoid rich fraction (FRF) that successfully reversed ischemia-reperfusion induced neuronal damage, thereby demonstrating that the flavonoids are responsible for the activity. The FRF effectively ameliorated chronic constriction induced neuropathic pain in rats. The FRF was subjected to bioactivity-guided fractionated. It was seen that FRF is more effective as compared to the isolated components probably due to synergism among the constituents (i.e., quercetin and quercetin glucosides) in the FRF. The outer scales of onion bulbs have great potential for prevention as well as for treatment of neuronal disorders. Red onions, with higher amounts of flavonoids as compared to the white onions, produced more significant neuroprotection. Thus, the standardized FRF from the waste material of a commonly used vegetable, especially the red variety, may be developed as a valuable neuroprotective agent.

Keywords: Allium cepa, antioxidant activity, flavonoid rich fraction, neuroprotection

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17955 A Model for Reverse-Mentoring in Education

Authors: Sabine A. Zauchner-Studnicka

Abstract:

As the term indicates, reverse-mentoring flips the classical roles of mentoring: In school, students take over the role of mentors for adults, i.e. teachers or parents. Originally reverse-mentoring stems from US enterprises, which implemented this innovative method in order to benefit from the resources of skilled younger employees for the enhancement of IT competences of senior colleagues. However, reverse-mentoring in schools worldwide is rare. Based on empirical studies and theoretical approaches, in this article an implementation model for reverse-mentoring is developed in order to bring the significant potential reverse-mentoring has for education into practice.

Keywords: reverse-mentoring, innovation in education, implementation model, school education

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17954 Steady State Modeling and Simulation of an Industrial Steam Boiler

Authors: Amina Lyria Deghal Cheridi, Abla Chaker, Ahcene Loubar

Abstract:

Relap5 system code is one among powerful tools, which is used in the area of design and safety evaluation. This work aims to simulate the behavior of a radiant steam boiler at the steady-state conditions using Relap5 code system. To perform this study, a detailed Relap5 model is built including all the parts of the steam boiler. The control and regulation systems are also considered. To reproduce the most important parameters and phenomena with an acceptable accuracy and fidelity, a strong qualification work is undertaken concerning the facility nodalization. It consists of making a comparison between the code results and the plant available data in steady-state operation mode. Therefore, the model qualification results at the steady-state are in good agreement with the steam boiler experimental data. The steam boiler Relap5 model has proved satisfactory; and the model was capable of predicting the main thermal-hydraulic steady-state conditions of the steam boiler.

Keywords: industrial steam boiler, model qualification, natural circulation, relap5/mod3.2, steady state simulation

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17953 Influence of Hearing Aids on Non-medically Treatable Deafness

Authors: Donatien Niragira

Abstract:

The progress of technology creates new expectations for patients. The world of deafness is no exception. In recent years, there have been considerable advances in the field of technologies aimed at assisting failing hearing. According to the usual medical vocabulary, hearing aids are actually orthotics. They do not replace an organ but compensate for a functional impairment. The Amplifier Hearing amplification is useful for a large number of people with hearing loss. Hearing aids restore speech audibility. However, their benefits vary depending on the quality of residual hearing. The hearing aid is not a "cure" for deafness. It cannot correct all affected hearing abilities. It should be considered as an aid to communication. The urge to judge from the audiogram alone should be resisted here, as audiometry only indicates the ability to detect non-verbal sounds. To prevent hearing aids from ending up in the drawer, it is important to ensure that the patient's disability situations justify the use of this type of orthosis. If the problems of receptive Pre-fitting counseling are crucial: the person with hearing loss must be informed of the advantages and disadvantages of amplification in his or her case. Their expectations must be realistic. They also need to be aware that the adaptation process requires a good deal of patience and perseverance. They should be informed about the various models and types of hearing aids, including all the aesthetic, functional and financial considerations. If the person's motivation "survives" pre-fitting counseling, we are in the presence of a good candidate for amplification. In addition to its relevance, it shows that the results found in this study significantly improve the quality of audibility in the patient, from where this technology must be made accessible everywhere in the world.

Keywords: auditives protheses, hearing, aids, no medicaly treatable deafnes

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17952 Development of 3D Neck Muscle to Analyze the Effect of Active Muscle Contraction in Whiplash Injury

Authors: Nisha Nandlal Sharma, Julaluk Carmai, Saiprasit Koetniyom, Bernd Markert

Abstract:

Whiplash Injuries are mostly experienced in car accidents. Symptoms of whiplash are commonly reported in studies, neck pain and headaches are two most common symptoms observed. The whiplash Injury mechanism is poorly understood. In present study, hybrid neck muscle model were developed with a combination of solid tetrahedral elements and 1D beam elements. Solid tetrahedral elements represents passive part of the muscle whereas, 1D beam elements represents active part. To simulate the active behavior of the muscle, Hill-type muscle model was applied to beam elements. To simulate non-linear passive properties of muscle, solid elements were modeled with rubber/foam material model. Some important muscles were then inserted into THUMS (Total Human Model for Safety) THUMS was given a boundary conditions similar to experimental tests. The model was exposed to 4g and 7g rear impacts as these load impacts are close to low speed impacts causing whiplash. The effect of muscle activation level on occupant kinematics during whiplash was analyzed.

Keywords: finite element model, muscle activation, THUMS, whiplash injury mechanism

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17951 Forecasting Electricity Spot Price with Generalized Long Memory Modeling: Wavelet and Neural Network

Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: electricity price, k-factor GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, forecasting

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17950 A Service Evaluation Exploring the Effectiveness of a Tier 3 Weight Management Programme Offering Face-To-Face and Remote Dietetic Support

Authors: Rosemary E. Huntriss, Lucy Jones

Abstract:

Obesity and excess weight continue to be significant health problems in England. Traditional weight management programmes offer face-to-face support or group education. Remote care is recognised as a viable means of support; however, its effectiveness has not previously been evaluated in a tier 3 weight management setting. This service evaluation explored the effectiveness of online coaching, telephone support, and face-to-face support as optional management strategies within a tier 3 weight management programme. Outcome data were collected for adults with a BMI ≥ 45 or ≥ 40 with complex comorbidity who were referred to a Tier 3 weight management programme from January 2018 and had been discharged before October 2018. Following an initial 45-minute consultation with a specialist weight management dietitian, patients were offered a choice of follow-up support in the form of online coaching supported by an app (8 x 15 minutes coaching), face-to-face or telephone appointments (4 x 30 minutes). All patients were invited to a final 30-minute face-to-face assessment. The planned intervention time was between 12 and 24 weeks. Patients were offered access to adjunct face-to-face or telephone psychological support. One hundred and thirty-nine patients were referred into the programme from January 2018 and discharged before October 2018. One hundred and twenty-four patients (89%) attended their initial assessment. Out of those who attended their initial assessment, 110 patients (88.0%) completed more than half of the programme and 77 patients (61.6%) completed all sessions. The average length of the completed programme (all sessions) was 17.2 (SD 4.2) weeks. Eighty-five (68.5%) patients were coached online, 28 (22.6%) patients were supported face-to-face support, and 11 (8.9%) chose telephone support. Two patients changed from online coaching to face-to-face support due to personal preference and were included in the face-to-face group for analysis. For those with data available (n=106), average weight loss across the programme was 4.85 (SD 3.49)%; average weight loss was 4.70 (SD 3.19)% for online coaching, 4.83 (SD 4.13)% for face-to-face support, and 6.28 (SD 4.15)% for telephone support. There was no significant difference between weight loss achieved with face-to-face vs. online coaching (4.83 (SD 4.13)% vs 4.70 (SD 3.19) (p=0.87) or face-to-face vs. remote support (online coaching and telephone support combined) (4.83 (SD 4.13)% vs 4.85 (SD 3.30)%) (p=0.98). Remote support has been shown to be as effective as face-to-face support provided by a dietitian in the short-term within a tier 3 weight management setting. The completion rates were high compared with another tier 3 weight management services suggesting that offering remote support as an option may improve completion rates within a weight management service.

Keywords: dietitian, digital health, obesity, weight management

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17949 A Performance Model for Designing Network in Reverse Logistic

Authors: S. Dhib, S. A. Addouche, T. Loukil, A. Elmhamedi

Abstract:

In this paper, a reverse supply chain network is investigated for a decision making. This decision is surrounded by complex flows of returned products, due to the increasing quantity, the type of returned products and the variety of recovery option products (reuse, recycling, and refurbishment). The most important problem in the reverse logistic network (RLN) is to orient returned products to the suitable type of recovery option. However, returned products orientations from collect sources to the recovery disposition have not well considered in performance model. In this study, we propose a performance model for designing a network configuration on reverse logistics. Conceptual and analytical models are developed with taking into account operational, economic and environmental factors on designing network.

Keywords: reverse logistics, network design, performance model, open loop configuration

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17948 Developing a Mathematical Model for Trade-Off Analysis of New Green Products

Authors: M. R. Gholizadeh, N. Bhuiyan, M. Salari

Abstract:

In the near future, companies will be increasingly forced to shift their activities along a new road in order to decrease the harmful effects of their design, production and after-life on our environment. Products must meet environmental standards to not only prevent penalties but to consider the sustainability for future generations. However, the most important factor that companies will face is selecting a reasonable strategy to maximize their profit. Thus, companies need to have precise forecast from their profit after design stage through Trade-off analysis. This paper is an attempt to introduce a mathematical model that considers effective factors that impact the total profit when products are designed for resource and energy efficiency or recyclability. The modification is according to different strategies based on a Cost-Volume-Profit model. Here, the cost structure consists of Recycling cost, Development cost, Ramp-up cost, Production cost, and Pollution cost. Also, the model shows the effect of implementation of design for recyclable on revenue structure through revenue of used parts and revenue of recycled materials. A numerical example is used to evaluate the proposed model. Results show that fulfillment of Green Product Development not only can reduce the environmental impact of products but also it will increase profit of company in long term.

Keywords: green product, design for environment, C-V-P model, trade-off analysis

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17947 Model Free Terminal Sliding Mode with Gravity Compensation: Application to an Exoskeleton-Upper Limb System

Authors: Sana Bembli, Nahla Khraief Haddad, Safya Belghith

Abstract:

This paper deals with a robust model free terminal sliding mode with gravity compensation approach used to control an exoskeleton-upper limb system. The considered system is a 2-DoF robot in interaction with an upper limb used for rehabilitation. The aim of this paper is to control the flexion/extension movement of the shoulder and the elbow joints in presence of matched disturbances. In the first part, we present the exoskeleton-upper limb system modeling. Then, we controlled the considered system by the model free terminal sliding mode with gravity compensation. A stability study is realized. To prove the controller performance, a robustness analysis was needed. Simulation results are provided to confirm the robustness of the gravity compensation combined with to the Model free terminal sliding mode in presence of uncertainties.

Keywords: exoskeleton- upper limb system, model free terminal sliding mode, gravity compensation, robustness analysis

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17946 Application of the Micropolar Beam Theory for the Construction of the Discrete-Continual Model of Carbon Nanotubes

Authors: Samvel H. Sargsyan

Abstract:

Together with the study of electron-optical properties of nanostructures and proceeding from experiment-based data, the study of the mechanical properties of nanostructures has become quite actual. For the study of the mechanical properties of fullerene, carbon nanotubes, graphene and other nanostructures one of the crucial issues is the construction of their adequate mathematical models. Among all mathematical models of graphene or carbon nano-tubes, this so-called discrete-continuous model is specifically important. It substitutes the interactions between atoms by elastic beams or springs. The present paper demonstrates the construction of the discrete-continual beam model for carbon nanotubes or graphene, where the micropolar beam model based on the theory of moment elasticity is accepted. With the account of the energy balance principle, the elastic moment constants for the beam model, expressed by the physical and geometrical parameters of carbon nanotube or graphene, are determined. By switching from discrete-continual beam model to the continual, the models of micropolar elastic cylindrical shell and micropolar elastic plate are confirmed as continual models for carbon nanotube and graphene respectively.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, discrete-continual, elastic, graphene, micropolar, plate, shell

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17945 Multivariate Rainfall Disaggregation Using MuDRain Model: Malaysia Experience

Authors: Ibrahim Suliman Hanaish

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Disaggregation daily rainfall using stochastic models formulated based on multivariate approach (MuDRain) is discussed in this paper. Seven rain gauge stations are considered in this study for different distances from the referred station starting from 4 km to 160 km in Peninsular Malaysia. The hourly rainfall data used are covered the period from 1973 to 2008 and July and November months are considered as an example of dry and wet periods. The cross-correlation among the rain gauges is considered for the available hourly rainfall information at the neighboring stations or not. This paper discussed the applicability of the MuDRain model for disaggregation daily rainfall to hourly rainfall for both sources of cross-correlation. The goodness of fit of the model was based on the reproduction of fitting statistics like the means, variances, coefficients of skewness, lag zero cross-correlation of coefficients and the lag one auto correlation of coefficients. It is found the correlation coefficients based on extracted correlations that was based on daily are slightly higher than correlations based on available hourly rainfall especially for neighboring stations not more than 28 km. The results showed also the MuDRain model did not reproduce statistics very well. In addition, a bad reproduction of the actual hyetographs comparing to the synthetic hourly rainfall data. Mean while, it is showed a good fit between the distribution function of the historical and synthetic hourly rainfall. These discrepancies are unavoidable because of the lowest cross correlation of hourly rainfall. The overall performance indicated that the MuDRain model would not be appropriate choice for disaggregation daily rainfall.

Keywords: rainfall disaggregation, multivariate disaggregation rainfall model, correlation, stochastic model

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17944 Economic Development Process: A Compartmental Analysis of a Model with Two Delays

Authors: Amadou Banda Ndione, Charles Awono Onana

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In this paper the compartmental approach is applied to build a macroeconomic model characterized by countries. We consider a total of N countries that are subdivided into three compartments according to their economic status: D(t) denotes the compartment of developing countries at time t, E(t) stands for the compartment of emerging countries at time t while A(t) represents advanced countries at time t. The model describes the process of economic development and includes the notion of openness through collaborations between countries. Two delays appear in this model to describe the average time necessary for collaborations between countries to become efficient for their development process. Our model represents the different stages of development. It further gives the conditions under which a country can change its economic status and demonstrates the short-term positive effect of openness on economic growth. In addition, we investigate bifurcation by considering the delay as a bifurcation parameter and examine the onset and termination of Hopf bifurcations from a positive equilibrium. Numerical simulations are provided in order to illustrate the theoretical part and to support discussion.

Keywords: compartmental systems, delayed dynamical system, economic development, fiscal policy, hopf bifurcation

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17943 The Different Essence of Death in the Elegies of Shelley's Adonais and Lord Tennyson's In Memoriam

Authors: Sulistyaningtyas

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The topic about death and dying is interesting to discuss since it is strongly related to every individual life. As represented in its title, Adonais: An Elegy on the Death of John Keats is a mournful poem written in 1821 by Percy Bysshe Shelley to mourn the loss of young poet John Keats. To compare, In Memoriam A.H.H. is an elegy written in 1850 about the death of Lord Tennyson’s dearest friend, Arthur Henry Hallam. Although both elegies were written to grieve the authors’ loved ones, their grief affects differently to the psychological being of the narrators. Thus, this research aims to examine the essence of death in affecting the narrators psychologically. By using psychoanalytic criticism, this research reveals the different essence of death in the two elegies as the result of the analysis. Moreover, these two elegies also portray the concept of the afterlife, immortality, and the figure of God. In Adonais, the grief of the narrator to Keats leads him to question the very purpose of life. The loss of his favorite poet which makes him feel sorrowful and mad along his 55 stanzas brings him to a higher psychological level to understand himself. He even sees himself as a Christ-like figure, which shows the idea that God is imaginable. Different from Adonais, the narrator of In Memoriam finds something more spiritual by doing his passionate mourning to Hallam. Through some contemplation in his 133 cantos, in the end, he is convinced that the dear one now dwells with a great Spirit who controls the world. He believes that all of the creation in the universe has to follow one law which is set by God. Hence, it can be concluded that death might bring different consequence to the psyche of every living creature.

Keywords: elegy, comparative study, psychoanalytic criticism, the essence of death

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17942 Application of Stochastic Models to Annual Extreme Streamflow Data

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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17941 Application of Nonlinear Model to Optimize the Coagulant Dose in Drinking Water Treatment

Authors: M. Derraz, M.Farhaoui

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In the water treatment processes, the determination of the optimal dose of the coagulant is an issue of particular concern. Coagulant dosing is correlated to raw water quality which depends on some parameters (turbidity, ph, temperature, conductivity…). The objective of this study is to provide water treatment operators with a tool that enables to predict and replace, sometimes, the manual method (jar testing) used in this plant to predict the optimum coagulant dose. The model is constructed using actual process data for a water treatment plant located in the middle of Morocco (Meknes).

Keywords: coagulation process, aluminum sulfate, model, coagulant dose

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17940 Pattern Recognition Based on Simulation of Chemical Senses (SCS)

Authors: Nermeen El Kashef, Yasser Fouad, Khaled Mahar

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No AI-complete system can model the human brain or behavior, without looking at the totality of the whole situation and incorporating a combination of senses. This paper proposes a Pattern Recognition model based on Simulation of Chemical Senses (SCS) for separation and classification of sign language. The model based on human taste controlling strategy. The main idea of the introduced model is motivated by the facts that the tongue cluster input substance into its basic tastes first, and then the brain recognizes its flavor. To implement this strategy, two level architecture is proposed (this is inspired from taste system). The separation-level of the architecture focuses on hand posture cluster, while the classification-level of the architecture to recognizes the sign language. The efficiency of proposed model is demonstrated experimentally by recognizing American Sign Language (ASL) data set. The recognition accuracy obtained for numbers of ASL is 92.9 percent.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, biocybernetics, gustatory system, sign language recognition, taste sense

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17939 Medical Complications in Diabetic Recipients after Kidney Transplantation

Authors: Hakan Duger, Alparslan Ersoy, Canan Ersoy

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Diabetes mellitus is the most common etiology of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Also, diabetic nephropathy is the etiology of ESRD in approximately 23% of kidney transplant recipients. A successful kidney transplant improves the quality of life and reduces the mortality risk for most patients. However, patients require close follow-up after transplantation due to medical complications. Diabetes mellitus can affect patient morbidity and mortality due to possible effects of immunosuppressive therapy on glucose metabolism. We compared the frequency of medical complications and the outcomes in diabetic and non-diabetic kidney transplant recipients. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study conducted in 498 patients who underwent kidney transplant surgery at our center in 10-year periods. The patients were divided into two groups: diabetics (46 ± 10 year, 26 males, 16 females) and non-diabetics (39 ± 12 year, 259 males, 197 females). The medical complications, graft functions, causes of graft loss and death were obtained from medical records. Results: There was no significant difference between recipient age, duration of dialysis, body mass index, gender, donor type, donor age, dialysis type, histories of HBV, HCV and coronary artery disease between two groups. The history of hypertension in diabetics was higher (69% vs. 36%, p < 0.001). The ratios of hypertension (50.1% vs. 57.1%), pneumonia (21.9% vs. 20%), urinary infection (16.9% vs. 20%), transaminase elevation (11.5% vs. 20%), hyperpotasemia (14.7% vs. 17.1%), hyponatremia (9.7% vs. 20%), hypotension (7.1% vs. 7.9%), hypocalcemia (1.4% vs. 0%), thrombocytopenia (8.6% vs. 8.6%), hypoglycemia (0.7% vs. 0%) and neutropenia (1.8% vs. 0%) were comparable in non-diabetic and diabetic groups, respectively. The frequency of hyperglycaemia in diabetics was higher (8.6% vs. 54.3%, p < 0.001). After transplantation, primary non-function (3.4% vs. 2.6%), delayed graft function (25.1% vs. 34.2%) and acute rejection (7.3% vs. 10.5%) ratios of in non-diabetic and diabetic groups were similar, respectively. Hospitalization durations in non-diabetics and diabetics were 22.5 ± 17.5 and 18.7 ± 13 day (p=0.094). Mean serum creatinine levels in non-diabetics and diabetics were 1.54 ± 0.74 and 1.52 ± 0.62 mg/dL at 6th month. Forty patients had graft loss. The ratios of graft loss and death in non-diabetic and diabetic groups were 8.2% vs. 7.1% and 7.1% vs. 2.6% (p > 0.05). There was no significant relationship between graft and patient survivals with the development of medical complication. Conclusion: As a result, medical complications are common in the early period. Hyperglycaemia was frequently seen following transplantation due to the effects of immunosuppressant regimens. However, the frequency of other medical complications in diabetic patients did not differ from non-diabetic one. The most important cause of death is still infections. The development of medical complications during the first 6 months did not significantly affect transplant outcomes.

Keywords: kidney transplantation, diabetes mellitus, complication, graft function

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17938 Estimation of the Temperatures in an Asynchronous Machine Using Extended Kalman Filter

Authors: Yi Huang, Clemens Guehmann

Abstract:

In order to monitor the thermal behavior of an asynchronous machine with squirrel cage rotor, a 9th-order extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm is implemented to estimate the temperatures of the stator windings, the rotor cage and the stator core. The state-space equations of EKF are established based on the electrical, mechanical and the simplified thermal models of an asynchronous machine. The asynchronous machine with simplified thermal model in Dymola is compiled as DymolaBlock, a physical model in MATLAB/Simulink. The coolant air temperature, three-phase voltages and currents are exported from the physical model and are processed by EKF estimator as inputs. Compared to the temperatures exported from the physical model of the machine, three parts of temperatures can be estimated quite accurately by the EKF estimator. The online EKF estimator is independent from the machine control algorithm and can work under any speed and load condition if the stator current is nonzero current system.

Keywords: asynchronous machine, extended Kalman filter, resistance, simulation, temperature estimation, thermal model

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17937 Beyond Classic Program Evaluation and Review Technique: A Generalized Model for Subjective Distributions with Flexible Variance

Authors: Byung Cheol Kim

Abstract:

The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is widely used for project management, but it struggles with subjective distributions, particularly due to its assumptions of constant variance and light tails. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Generalized PERT (G-PERT) model, which enhances PERT by incorporating variability in three-point subjective estimates. Our methodology extends the original PERT model to cover the full range of unimodal beta distributions, enabling the model to handle thick-tailed distributions and offering formulas for computing mean and variance. This maintains the simplicity of PERT while providing a more accurate depiction of uncertainty. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the G-PERT model significantly improves performance, particularly when dealing with heavy-tail subjective distributions. In comparative assessments with alternative models such as triangular and lognormal distributions, G-PERT shows superior accuracy and flexibility. These results suggest that G-PERT offers a more robust solution for project estimation while still retaining the user-friendliness of the classic PERT approach.

Keywords: PERT, subjective distribution, project management, flexible variance

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17936 Large Eddy Simulation of Hydrogen Deflagration in Open Space and Vented Enclosure

Authors: T. Nozu, K. Hibi, T. Nishiie

Abstract:

This paper discusses the applicability of the numerical model for a damage prediction method of the accidental hydrogen explosion occurring in a hydrogen facility. The numerical model was based on an unstructured finite volume method (FVM) code “NuFD/FrontFlowRed”. For simulating unsteady turbulent combustion of leaked hydrogen gas, a combination of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and a combustion model were used. The combustion model was based on a two scalar flamelet approach, where a G-equation model and a conserved scalar model expressed a propagation of premixed flame surface and a diffusion combustion process, respectively. For validation of this numerical model, we have simulated the previous two types of hydrogen explosion tests. One is open-space explosion test, and the source was a prismatic 5.27 m3 volume with 30% of hydrogen-air mixture. A reinforced concrete wall was set 4 m away from the front surface of the source. The source was ignited at the bottom center by a spark. The other is vented enclosure explosion test, and the chamber was 4.6 m × 4.6 m × 3.0 m with a vent opening on one side. Vent area of 5.4 m2 was used. Test was performed with ignition at the center of the wall opposite the vent. Hydrogen-air mixtures with hydrogen concentrations close to 18% vol. were used in the tests. The results from the numerical simulations are compared with the previous experimental data for the accuracy of the numerical model, and we have verified that the simulated overpressures and flame time-of-arrival data were in good agreement with the results of the previous two explosion tests.

Keywords: deflagration, large eddy simulation, turbulent combustion, vented enclosure

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17935 Simulation of Kinetic Friction in L-Bending of Sheet Metals

Authors: Maziar Ramezani, Thomas Neitzert, Timotius Pasang

Abstract:

This paper aims at experimental and numerical investigation of springback behavior of sheet metals during L-bending process with emphasis on Stribeck-type friction modeling. The coefficient of friction in Stribeck curve depends on sliding velocity and contact pressure. The springback behavior of mild steel and aluminum alloy 6022-T4 sheets was studied experimentally and using numerical simulations with ABAQUS software with two types of friction model: Coulomb friction and Stribeck friction. The influence of forming speed on springback behavior was studied experimentally and numerically. The results showed that Stribeck-type friction model has better results in predicting springback in sheet metal forming. The FE prediction error for mild steel and 6022-T4 AA is 23.8%, 25.5% respectively, using Coulomb friction model and 11%, 13% respectively, using Stribeck friction model. These results show that Stribeck model is suitable for simulation of sheet metal forming especially at higher forming speed.

Keywords: friction, L-bending, springback, Stribeck curves

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17934 A Case Study on Smart Energy City of the UK: Based on Business Model Innovation

Authors: Minzheong Song

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to see a case of smart energy evolution of the UK along with government projects and smart city project like 'Smart London Plan (SLP)' in 2013 with the logic of business model innovation (BMI). For this, it discusses the theoretical logic and formulates a research framework of evolving smart energy from silo to integrated system. The starting point is the silo system with no connection and in second stage, the private investment in smart meters, smart grids implementation, energy and water nexus, adaptive smart grid systems, and building marketplaces with platform leadership. As results, the UK’s smart energy sector has evolved from smart meter device installation through smart grid to new business models such as water-energy nexus and microgrid service within the smart energy city system.

Keywords: smart city, smart energy, business model, business model innovation (BMI)

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17933 A Cross-Cultural Investigation of Self-Compassion in Adolescents Across Gender

Authors: H. N. Cheung

Abstract:

Self-compassion encourages one to accept oneself, reduce self-criticism and self-judgment, and see one’s shortcomings and setbacks in a balanced view. Adolescent self-compassion is a crucial protective factor against mental illness. It is, however, affected by gender. Given the scarcity of self-compassion scales for adolescents, the current study evaluates the Self-Compassion Scale for Youth (SCS-Y) in a large cross-cultural sample and investigates how the subscales of SCS-Y relate to the dimensions of depressive symptoms across gender. Through the internet-based Qualtrics, a total of 2881 teenagers aged 12 to 18 years were recruited from Hong Kong (HK), China, and the United Kingdom. A Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model was used to evaluate measurement invariance of the SCS-Y, and differential item functioning (DIF) was checked across gender. Upon the establishment of the best model, a multigroup structural equation model (SEM) was built between factors of SCS-Y and Multidimensional depression assessment scale (MDAS) which assesses four dimensions of depressive symptoms (emotional, cognitive, somatic and interpersonal). The SCS-Y was shown to have good reliability and validity. The MIMIC model produced a good model fit for a hypothetical six-factor model (CFI = 0.980; TLI = 0.974; RMSEA = 0.038) and no item was flagged for DIF across gender. A gender difference was observed between SCS-Y factors and depression dimensions. Conclusions: The SCS-Y exhibits good psychometric characteristics, including measurement invariance across gender. The study also highlights the gender difference between self-compassion factors and depression dimensions.

Keywords: self compassion, gender, depression, structural equation modelling, MIMIC model

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17932 Laparoscopic Proximal Gastrectomy in Gastroesophageal Junction Tumours

Authors: Ihab Saad Ahmed

Abstract:

Background For Siewert type I and II gastroesophageal junction tumor (GEJ) laparoscopic proximal gastrectomy can be performed. It is associated with several perioperative benefits compared with open proximal gastrectomy. The use of laparoscopic proximal gastrectomy (LPG) has become an increasingly popular approach for select tumors Methods We describe our technique for LPG, including the preoperative work-up, illustrated images of the main principle steps of the surgery, and our postoperative course. Results Thirteen pts (nine males, four female) with type I, II (GEJ) adenocarcinoma had laparoscopic radical proximal gastrectomy and D2 lymphadenectomy. All of our patient received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, eleven patients had intrathoracic anastomosis through mini thoracotomy (two hand sewn end to end anastomoses and the other 9 patient end to side using circular stapler), two patients with intrathoracic anastomosis had flap and wrap technique, two patients had thoracoscopic esophageal and mediastinal lymph node dissection with cervical anastomosis The mean blood loss 80ml, no cases were converted to open. The mean operative time 250 minute Average LN retrieved 19-25, No sever complication such as leakage, stenosis, pancreatic fistula ,or intra-abdominal abscess were reported. Only One patient presented with empyema 1.5 month after discharge that was managed conservatively. Conclusion For carefully selected patients, LPG in GEJ tumour type I and II is a safe and reasonable alternative for open technique , which is associated with similar oncologic outcomes and low morbidity. It showed less blood loss, respiratory infections, with similar 1- and 3-year survival rates.

Keywords: LPG(laparoscopic proximal gastrectomy, GEJ( gastroesophageal junction tumour), d2 lymphadenectomy, neoadjuvant cth

Procedia PDF Downloads 128