Search results for: heavy oil
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 1591

Search results for: heavy oil

121 Use of Locomotor Activity of Rainbow Trout Juveniles in Identifying Sublethal Concentrations of Landfill Leachate

Authors: Tomas Makaras, Gintaras Svecevičius

Abstract:

Landfill waste is a common problem as it has an economic and environmental impact even if it is closed. Landfill waste contains a high density of various persistent compounds such as heavy metals, organic and inorganic materials. As persistent compounds are slowly-degradable or even non-degradable in the environment, they often produce sublethal or even lethal effects on aquatic organisms. The aims of the present study were to estimate sublethal effects of the Kairiai landfill (WGS: 55°55‘46.74“, 23°23‘28.4“) leachate on the locomotor activity of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss juveniles using the original system package developed in our laboratory for automated monitoring, recording and analysis of aquatic organisms’ activity, and to determine patterns of fish behavioral response to sublethal effects of leachate. Four different concentrations of leachate were chosen: 0.125; 0.25; 0.5 and 1.0 mL/L (0.0025; 0.005; 0.01 and 0.002 as part of 96-hour LC50, respectively). Locomotor activity was measured after 5, 10 and 30 minutes of exposure during 1-minute test-periods of each fish (7 fish per treatment). The threshold-effect-concentration amounted to 0.18 mL/L (0.0036 parts of 96-hour LC50). This concentration was found to be even 2.8-fold lower than the concentration generally assumed to be “safe” for fish. At higher concentrations, the landfill leachate solution elicited behavioral response of test fish to sublethal levels of pollutants. The ability of the rainbow trout to detect and avoid contaminants occurred after 5 minutes of exposure. The intensity of locomotor activity reached a peak within 10 minutes, evidently decreasing after 30 minutes. This could be explained by the physiological and biochemical adaptation of fish to altered environmental conditions. It has been established that the locomotor activity of juvenile trout depends on leachate concentration and exposure duration. Modeling of these parameters showed that the activity of juveniles increased at higher leachate concentrations, but slightly decreased with the increasing exposure duration. Experiment results confirm that the behavior of rainbow trout juveniles is a sensitive and rapid biomarker that can be used in combination with the system for fish behavior monitoring, registration and analysis to determine sublethal concentrations of pollutants in ambient water. Further research should be focused on software improvement aimed to include more parameters of aquatic organisms’ behavior and to investigate the most rapid and appropriate behavioral responses in different species. In practice, this study could be the basis for the development and creation of biological early-warning systems (BEWS).

Keywords: fish behavior biomarker, landfill leachate, locomotor activity, rainbow trout juveniles, sublethal effects

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120 Modelling of Air-Cooled Adiabatic Membrane-Based Absorber for Absorption Chillers Using Low Temperature Solar Heat

Authors: M. Venegas, M. De Vega, N. García-Hernando

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Absorption cooling chillers have received growing attention over the past few decades as they allow the use of low-grade heat to produce the cooling effect. The combination of this technology with solar thermal energy in the summer period can reduce the electricity consumption peak due to air-conditioning. One of the main components, the absorber, is designed for simultaneous heat and mass transfer. Usually, shell and tubes heat exchangers are used, which are large and heavy. Cooling water from a cooling tower is conventionally used to extract the heat released during the absorption and condensation processes. These are clear inconvenient for the generalization of the absorption technology use, limiting its benefits in the contribution to the reduction in CO2 emissions, particularly for the H2O-LiBr solution which can work with low heat temperature sources as provided by solar panels. In the present work a promising new technology is under study, consisting in the use of membrane contactors in adiabatic microchannel mass exchangers. The configuration here proposed consists in one or several modules (depending on the cooling capacity of the chiller) that contain two vapour channels, separated from the solution by adjacent microporous membranes. The solution is confined in rectangular microchannels. A plastic or synthetic wall separates the solution channels between them. The solution entering the absorber is previously subcooled using ambient air. In this way, the need for a cooling tower is avoided. A model of the configuration proposed is developed based on mass and energy balances and some correlations were selected to predict the heat and mass transfer coefficients. The concentration and temperatures along the channels cannot be explicitly determined from the set of equations obtained. For this reason, the equations were implemented in a computer code using Engineering Equation Solver software, EES™. With the aim of minimizing the absorber volume to reduce the size of absorption cooling chillers, the ratio between the cooling power of the chiller and the absorber volume (R) is calculated. Its variation is shown along the solution channels, allowing its optimization for selected operating conditions. For the case considered the solution channel length is recommended to be lower than 3 cm. Maximum values of R obtained in this work are higher than the ones found in optimized horizontal falling film absorbers using the same solution. Results obtained also show the variation of R and the chiller efficiency (COP) for different ambient temperatures and desorption temperatures typically obtained using flat plate solar collectors. The configuration proposed of adiabatic membrane-based absorber using ambient air to subcool the solution is a good technology to reduce the size of the absorption chillers, allowing the use of low temperature solar heat and avoiding the need for cooling towers.

Keywords: adiabatic absorption, air-cooled, membrane, solar thermal energy

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119 Distribution, Source Apportionment and Assessment of Pollution Level of Trace Metals in Water and Sediment of a Riverine Wetland of the Brahmaputra Valley

Authors: Kali Prasad Sarma, Sanghita Dutta

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Deepor Beel (DB), the lone Ramsar site and an important wetland of the Brahmaputra valley in the state of Assam. The local people from fourteen peripheral villages traditionally utilize the wetland for harvesting vegetables, flowers, aquatic seeds, medicinal plants, fish, molluscs, fodder for domestic cattle etc. Therefore, it is of great importance to understand the concentration and distribution of trace metals in water-sediment system of the beel in order to protect its ecological environment. DB lies between26°05′26′′N to 26°09′26′′N latitudes and 90°36′39′′E to 91°41′25′′E longitudes. Water samples from the surface layer of water up to 40cm deep and sediment samples from the top 5cm layer of surface sediments were collected. The trace metals in waters and sediments were analysed using ICP-OES. The organic Carbon was analysed using the TOC analyser. The different mineral present in the sediments were confirmed by X-ray diffraction method (XRD). SEM images were recorded for the samples using SEM, attached with energy dispersive X-ray unit, with an accelerating voltage of 20 kv. All the statistical analyses were performed using SPSS20.0 for windows. In the present research, distribution, source apportionment, temporal and spatial variability, extent of pollution and the ecological risk of eight toxic trace metals in sediments and water of DB were investigated. The average concentrations of chromium(Cr) (both the seasons), copper(Cu) and lead(Pb) (pre-monsoon) and zinc(Zn) and cadmium(Cd) (post-monsoon) in sediments were higher than the consensus based threshold concentration(TEC). The persistent exposure of toxic trace metals in sediments pose a potential threat, especially to sediment dwelling organisms. The degree of pollution in DB sediments for Pb, Cobalt (Co) Zn, Cd, Cr, Cu and arsenic (As) was assessed using Enrichment Factor (EF), Geo-accumulation index (Igeo) and Pollution Load Index (PLI). The results indicated that contamination of surface sediments in DB is dominated by Pb and Cd and to a lesser extent by Co, Fe, Cu, Cr, As and Zn. A significant positive correlation among the pairs of element Co/Fe, Zn/As in water, and Cr/Zn, Fe/As in sediments indicates similar source of origin of these metals. The effects of interaction among trace metals between water and sediments shows significant variations (F =94.02, P < 0.001), suggesting maximum mobility of trace metals in DB sediments and water. The source apportionment of the heavy metals was carried out using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). SEM-EDS detects the presence of Cd, Cu, Cr, Zn, Pb, As and Fe in the sediment sample. The average concentration of Cd, Zn, Pb and As in the bed sediments of DB are found to be higher than the crustal abundance. The EF values indicate that Cd and Pb are significantly enriched. From source apportionment studies of the eight metals using PCA revealed that Cd was anthropogenic in origin; Pb, As, Cr, and Zn had mixed sources; whereas Co, Cu and Fe were natural in origin.

Keywords: Deepor Beel, enrichment factor, principal component analysis, trace metals

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118 Effects of Two Distinct Monsoon Seasons on the Water Quality of a Tropical Crater Lake

Authors: Maurice A. Duka, Leobel Von Q. Tamayo, Niño Carlo I. Casim

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The paucity of long-term measurements and monitoring of accurate water quality parameter profiles is evident for small and deep tropical lakes in Southeast Asia. This leads to a poor understanding of the stratification and mixing dynamics of these lakes in the region. The water quality dynamics of Sampaloc Lake, a tropical crater lake (104 ha, 27 m deep) in the Philippines, were investigated to understand how monsoon-driven conditions impact water quality and ecological health. Located in an urban area with approximately 10% of its surface area allocated to aquaculture, the lake is subject to distinct seasonal changes associated with the Northeast (NE) and Southwest (SW) monsoons. NE Monsoon typically occurs from October to April, while SW monsoon from May to September. These monsoons influence the lake’s water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorophyll-α (chl-α), phycocyanin (PC), and turbidity, leading to significant seasonal variability. Monthly field observations of water quality parameters were made from October 2022 to September 2023 using a multi-parameter probe, YSI ProDSS, together with the collection of meteorological data during the same period. During the NE monsoon, cooler air temperatures and winds with sustained speeds caused surface water temperatures to drop from 30.9 ºC in October to 25.5 ºC in January, resulting in the weakening of stratification and eventually in lake turnover. This turnover redistributed nutrients from hypolimnetic layers to surface layers, increasing chl-α and PC levels (14-41 and 0-2 µg/L) throughout the water column. The fish kill was also observed during the lake’s turnover event as a result of the mixing of hypoxic hypolimnetic waters. Turbidity levels (0-3 NTU) were generally low but showed mid-column peaks in October, which was linked to thermocline-related effects, while low values in November followed heavy rainfall dilution and mixing effects. Conversely, the SW monsoon showed increased surface temperatures (28-30 ºC), shallow thermocline formations (3-11 m), and lower surface chl-α and PC levels (2-8 and 0-0.5 µg/L, respectively), likely due to limited nutrient mixing and more stable stratification. Turbidity was notably higher also in July (11-15 NTU) due to intense rainfall and reduced light penetration, which minimized photosynthetic activity. The SW monsoon also coincided with the typhoon season in the study area, resulting in partial upwelling of nutrients during strong storm events. These findings emphasize the need for continued monitoring of Sampaloc Lake’s seasonal water quality patterns, as monsoon-driven changes are crucial to maintaining its ecological balance and sustainability.

Keywords: seasonal water quality dynamics, Philippine tropical lake, monsoon-driven conditions, stratification and mixing

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117 Sustainable Harvesting, Conservation and Analysis of Genetic Diversity in Polygonatum Verticillatum Linn.

Authors: Anchal Rana

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Indian Himalayas with their diverse climatic conditions are home to many rare and endangered medicinal flora. One such species is Polygonatum verticillatum Linn., popularly known as King Solomon’s Seal or Solomon’s Seal. Its mention as an incredible medicinal herb comes from 5000 years ago in Indian Materia Medica as a component of Ashtavarga, a poly-herbal formulation comprising of eight herbs illustrated as world’s first ever revitalizing and rejuvenating nutraceutical food, which is now commercialised in the name ‘Chaywanprash’. It is an erect tall (60 to 120 cm) perennial herb with sessile, linear leaves and white pendulous flowers. The species grows well in an altitude range of 1600 to 3600 m amsl, and propagates mostly through rhizomes. The rhizomes are potential source for significant phytochemicals like flavonoids, phenolics, lectins, terpenoids, allantoin, diosgenin, β-Sitosterol and quinine. The presence of such phytochemicals makes the species an asset for antioxidant, cardiotonic, demulcent, diuretic, energizer, emollient, aphrodisiac, appetizer, glactagogue, etc. properties. Having profound concentrations of macro and micronutrients, species has fine prospects of being used as a diet supplement. However, due to unscientific and gregarious uprooting, it has been assigned a status of ‘vulnerable’ and ‘endangered’ in the Conservation Assessment and Management Plan (CAMP) process conducted by Foundation for Revitalisation of Local Health Traditions (FRLHT) during 2010, according to IUCN Red-List Criteria. Further, destructive harvesting, land use disturbances, heavy livestock grazing, climatic changes and habitat fragmentation have substantially contributed towards anomaly of the species. It, therefore, became imperative to conserve the diversity of the species and make judicious use in future research and commercial programme and schemes. A Gene Bank was therefore established at High Altitude Herbal Garden of the Forest Research Institute, Dehradun, India situated at Chakarata (30042’52.99’’N, 77051’36.77’’E, 2205 m amsl) consisting 149 accessions collected from thirty-one geographical locations spread over three Himalayan States of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. The present investigations purport towards sampling and collection of divergent germplasm followed by planting and cultivation techniques. The ultimate aim is thereby focussed on analysing genetic diversity of the species and capturing promising genotypes for carrying out further genetic improvement programme so to contribute towards sustainable development and healthcare.

Keywords: Polygonatum verticillatum Linn., phytochemicals, genetic diversity, conservation, gene bank

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116 Diagnosis of Intermittent High Vibration Peaks in Industrial Gas Turbine Using Advanced Vibrations Analysis

Authors: Abubakar Rashid, Muhammad Saad, Faheem Ahmed

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This paper provides a comprehensive study pertaining to diagnosis of intermittent high vibrations on an industrial gas turbine using detailed vibrations analysis, followed by its rectification. Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited, a Chlor-Vinyl complex located in Pakistan has a captive combined cycle power plant having two 28 MW gas turbines (make Hitachi) & one 15 MW steam turbine. In 2018, the organization faced an issue of high vibrations on one of the gas turbines. These high vibration peaks appeared intermittently on both compressor’s drive end (DE) & turbine’s non-drive end (NDE) bearing. The amplitude of high vibration peaks was between 150-170% on the DE bearing & 200-300% on the NDE bearing from baseline values. In one of these episodes, the gas turbine got tripped on “High Vibrations Trip” logic actuated at 155µm. Limited instrumentation is available on the machine, which is monitored with GE Bently Nevada 3300 system having two proximity probes installed at Turbine NDE, Compressor DE &at Generator DE & NDE bearings. Machine’s transient ramp-up & steady state data was collected using ADRE SXP & DSPI 408. Since only 01 key phasor is installed at Turbine high speed shaft, a derived drive key phasor was configured in ADRE to obtain low speed shaft rpm required for data analysis. By analyzing the Bode plots, Shaft center line plot, Polar plot & orbit plots; rubbing was evident on Turbine’s NDE along with increased bearing clearance of Turbine’s NDE radial bearing. The subject bearing was then inspected & heavy deposition of carbonized coke was found on the labyrinth seals of bearing housing with clear rubbing marks on shaft & housing covering at 20-25 degrees on the inner radius of labyrinth seals. The collected coke sample was tested in laboratory & found to be the residue of lube oil in the bearing housing. After detailed inspection & cleaning of shaft journal area & bearing housing, new radial bearing was installed. Before assembling the bearing housing, cleaning of bearing cooling & sealing air lines was also carried out as inadequate flow of cooling & sealing air can accelerate coke formation in bearing housing. The machine was then taken back online & data was collected again using ADRE SXP & DSPI 408 for health analysis. The vibrations were found in acceptable zone as per ISO standard 7919-3 while all other parameters were also within vendor defined range. As a learning from subject case, revised operating & maintenance regime has also been proposed to enhance machine’s reliability.

Keywords: ADRE, bearing, gas turbine, GE Bently Nevada, Hitachi, vibration

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115 Prospects of Agroforestry Products in the Emergency Situation: A Case Study of Earthquake of 2015 in Central Nepal

Authors: Raju Chhetri

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Agroforestry is one of the main sources of livelihood among the people of Nepal. In particular, this is the only one mode of livelihood among the Chepangs. The monster earthquake (7.3 MW) that hit the country on the 25th of April in 2015 and many of its aftershocks had devastating effects. As a result, not only the big structures collapsed, it incurred great losses on fabrication, collection centers, schools, markets and other necessary service centers. Although there were a large number of aftershocks after the monster earthquake, the most devastating aftershock took place on 12th May, 2015, which measured 6.3 richter scale. Consequently, it caused more destruction of houses, further calamity to the lives of people, and public life got further perdition. This study was mainly carried out to find out the food security and market situation of Agroforestry product of the Chepang community in Raksirang VDC (one of the severely affected VDCs of Makwanpur district) due to the earthquake. A total of 40 households (12 percent) were randomly selected as a sample in ward number 7 only. Questionnaires and focus groups were used to gather primary data. Additional, two Focus Group Discussions (FGD) were convened in the study area to get some descriptive information on this study. Estimated 370 hectares of land, which was full of Agroforestry plantation, ruptured by the earthquake. It caused severe damages to the households, and a serious loss of food-stock, up to 60-80 percent (maize, millet, and rice). Instead of regular cereal intake, banana (Muas Paradisca) consumption was found ‘high scale’ in the emergency period. The market price of rice (37-44 NRS/Kg) increased by 18.9 percent. Some difference in the income range before and after the earthquake was observed. Before earthquake, sale of Agroforestry, and livestock products were continuing, but after the earthquake, Agroforestry product sale is the only one means of livelihood among Chepangs. Nearly 50-60 percent Agroforestry production of banana (Mass Paradisca), citrus (Citrus Lemon), pineapple (Ananus comosus) and broom grass (Thysanolaena maxima) declined, excepting for cash income from the residual. Heavy demands of Agroforestry product mentioned above lay high farm gate prices (50-100 percent) helps surveyed the community to continue livelihood from its sale. Out of the survey samples, 30 households (75 percent) respondents migrated to safe location due to land rupture, ongoing aftershocks, and landslides. Overall food security situation in this community is acute and challenging for the days to come. Immediate and long term both response from a relief agency concerning food, shelter and safe stocking of Agroforestry product is required to keep secured livelihood in Chepang community.

Keywords: earthquake, rupture, agroforestry, livelihood, indigenous, food security

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114 Rainfall and Flood Forecast Models for Better Flood Relief Plan of the Mae Sot Municipality

Authors: S. Chuenchooklin, S. Taweepong, U. Pangnakorn

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This research was conducted in the Mae Sot Watershed whereas located in the Moei River Basin at the Upper Salween River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. The Mae Sot Municipality is the largest urbanized in Tak Province and situated in the midstream of the Mae Sot Watershed. It usually faces flash flood problem after heavy rain due to poor flood management has been reported since economic rapidly bloom up in recently years. Its catchment can be classified as ungauged basin with lack of rainfall data and no any stream gaging station was reported. It was attached by most severely flood event in 2013 as the worst studied case for those all communities in this municipality. Moreover, other problems are also faced in this watershed such shortage water supply for domestic consumption and agriculture utilizations including deterioration of water quality and landslide as well. The research aimed to increase capability building and strengthening the participation of those local community leaders and related agencies to conduct better water management in urban area was started by mean of the data collection and illustration of appropriated application of some short period rainfall forecasting model as the aim for better flood relief plan and management through the hydrologic model system and river analysis system programs. The authors intended to apply the global rainfall data via the integrated data viewer (IDV) program from the Unidata with the aim for rainfall forecasting in short period of 7 - 10 days in advance during rainy season instead of real time record. The IDV product can be present in advance period of rainfall with time step of 3 - 6 hours was introduced to the communities. The result can be used to input to either the hydrologic modeling system model (HEC-HMS) or the soil water assessment tool model (SWAT) for synthesizing flood hydrographs and use for flood forecasting as well. The authors applied the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) to present flood flow behaviors in the reach of the Mae Sot stream via the downtown of the Mae Sot City as flood extents as water surface level at every cross-sectional profiles of the stream. Both models of HMS and RAS were tested in 2013 with observed rainfall and inflow-outflow data from the Mae Sot Dam. The result of HMS showed fit to the observed data at dam and applied at upstream boundary discharge to RAS in order to simulate flood extents and tested in the field, and the result found satisfied. The result of IDV’s rainfall forecast data was compared to observed data and found fair. However, it is an appropriate tool to use in the ungauged catchment to use with flood hydrograph and river analysis models for future efficient flood relief plan and management.

Keywords: global rainfall, flood forecast, hydrologic modeling system, river analysis system

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113 Modeling and Analysis of Drilling Operation in Shale Reservoirs with Introduction of an Optimization Approach

Authors: Sina Kazemi, Farshid Torabi, Todd Peterson

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Drilling in shale formations is frequently time-consuming, challenging, and fraught with mechanical failures such as stuck pipes or hole packing off when the cutting removal rate is not sufficient to clean the bottom hole. Crossing the heavy oil shale and sand reservoirs with active shale and microfractures is generally associated with severe fluid losses causing a reduction in the rate of the cuttings removal. These circumstances compromise a well’s integrity and result in a lower rate of penetration (ROP). This study presents collective results of field studies and theoretical analysis conducted on data from South Pars and North Dome in an Iran-Qatar offshore field. Solutions to complications related to drilling in shale formations are proposed through systemically analyzing and applying modeling techniques to select field mud logging data. Field data measurements during actual drilling operations indicate that in a shale formation where the return flow of polymer mud was almost lost in the upper dolomite layer, the performance of hole cleaning and ROP progressively change when higher string rotations are initiated. Likewise, it was observed that this effect minimized the force of rotational torque and improved well integrity in the subsequent casing running. Given similar geologic conditions and drilling operations in reservoirs targeting shale as the producing zone like the Bakken formation within the Williston Basin and Lloydminster, Saskatchewan, a drill bench dynamic modeling simulation was used to simulate borehole cleaning efficiency and mud optimization. The results obtained by altering RPM (string revolution per minute) at the same pump rate and optimized mud properties exhibit a positive correlation with field measurements. The field investigation and developed model in this report show that increasing the speed of string revolution as far as geomechanics and drilling bit conditions permit can minimize the risk of mechanically stuck pipes while reaching a higher than expected ROP in shale formations. Data obtained from modeling and field data analysis, optimized drilling parameters, and hole cleaning procedures are suggested for minimizing the risk of a hole packing off and enhancing well integrity in shale reservoirs. Whereas optimization of ROP at a lower pump rate maintains the wellbore stability, it saves time for the operator while reducing carbon emissions and fatigue of mud motors and power supply engines.

Keywords: ROP, circulating density, drilling parameters, return flow, shale reservoir, well integrity

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112 Fuel Cells Not Only for Cars: Technological Development in Railways

Authors: Marita Pigłowska, Beata Kurc, Paweł Daszkiewicz

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Railway vehicles are divided into two groups: traction (powered) vehicles and wagons. The traction vehicles include locomotives (line and shunting), railcars (sometimes referred to as railbuses), and multiple units (electric and diesel), consisting of several or a dozen carriages. In vehicles with diesel traction, fuel energy (petrol, diesel, or compressed gas) is converted into mechanical energy directly in the internal combustion engine or via electricity. In the latter case, the combustion engine generator produces electricity that is then used to drive the vehicle (diesel-electric drive or electric transmission). In Poland, such a solution dominates both in heavy linear and shunting locomotives. The classic diesel drive is available for the lightest shunting locomotives, railcars, and passenger diesel multiple units. Vehicles with electric traction do not have their own source of energy -they use pantographs to obtain electricity from the traction network. To determine the competitiveness of the hydrogen propulsion system, it is essential to understand how it works. The basic elements of the construction of a railway vehicle drive system that uses hydrogen as a source of traction force are fuel cells, batteries, fuel tanks, traction motors as well as main and auxiliary converters. The compressed hydrogen is stored in tanks usually located on the roof of the vehicle. This resource is supplemented with the use of specialized infrastructure while the vehicle is stationary. Hydrogen is supplied to the fuel cell, where it oxidizes. The effect of this chemical reaction is electricity and water (in two forms -liquid and water vapor). Electricity is stored in batteries (so far, lithium-ion batteries are used). Electricity stored in this way is used to drive traction motors and supply onboard equipment. The current generated by the fuel cell passes through the main converter, whose task is to adjust it to the values required by the consumers, i.e., batteries and the traction motor. The work will attempt to construct a fuel cell with unique electrodes. This research is a trend that connects industry with science. The first goal will be to obtain hydrogen on a large scale in tube furnaces, to thoroughly analyze the obtained structures (IR), and to apply the method in fuel cells. The second goal is to create low-energy energy storage and distribution station for hydrogen and electric vehicles. The scope of the research includes obtaining a carbon variety and obtaining oxide systems on a large scale using a tubular furnace and then supplying vehicles. Acknowledgments: This work is supported by the Polish Ministry of Science and Education, project "The best of the best! 4.0", number 0911/MNSW/4968 – M.P. and grant 0911/SBAD/2102—B.K.

Keywords: railway, hydrogen, fuel cells, hybrid vehicles

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111 Evaluation of Batch Splitting in the Context of Load Scattering

Authors: S. Wesebaum, S. Willeke

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Production companies are faced with an increasingly turbulent business environment, which demands very high production volumes- and delivery date flexibility. If a decoupling by storage stages is not possible (e.g. at a contract manufacturing company) or undesirable from a logistical point of view, load scattering effects the production processes. ‘Load’ characterizes timing and quantity incidence of production orders (e.g. in work content hours) to workstations in the production, which results in specific capacity requirements. Insufficient coordination between load (demand capacity) and capacity supply results in heavy load scattering, which can be described by deviations and uncertainties in the input behavior of a capacity unit. In order to respond to fluctuating loads, companies try to implement consistent and realizable input behavior using the capacity supply available. For example, a uniform and high level of equipment capacity utilization keeps production costs down. In contrast, strong load scattering at workstations leads to performance loss or disproportionately fluctuating WIP, whereby the logistics objectives are affected negatively. Options for reducing load scattering are e.g. shifting the start and end dates of orders, batch splitting and outsourcing of operations or shifting to other workstations. This leads to an adjustment of load to capacity supply, and thus to a reduction of load scattering. If the adaptation of load to capacity cannot be satisfied completely, possibly flexible capacity must be used to ensure that the performance of a workstation does not decrease for a given load. Where the use of flexible capacities normally raises costs, an adjustment of load to capacity supply reduces load scattering and, in consequence, costs. In the literature you mostly find qualitative statements for describing load scattering. Quantitative evaluation methods that describe load mathematically are rare. In this article the authors discuss existing approaches for calculating load scattering and their various disadvantages such as lack of opportunity for normalization. These approaches are the basis for the development of our mathematical quantification approach for describing load scattering that compensates the disadvantages of the current quantification approaches. After presenting our mathematical quantification approach, the method of batch splitting will be described. Batch splitting allows the adaptation of load to capacity to reduce load scattering. After describing the method, it will be explicitly analyzed in the context of the logistic curve theory by Nyhuis using the stretch factor α1 in order to evaluate the impact of the method of batch splitting on load scattering and on logistic curves. The conclusion of this article will be to show how the methods and approaches presented can help companies in a turbulent environment to quantify the occurring work load scattering accurately and apply an efficient method for adjusting work load to capacity supply. In this way, the achievements of the logistical objectives are increased without causing additional costs.

Keywords: batch splitting, production logistics, production planning and control, quantification, load scattering

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110 Viability of Permaculture Principles to Sustainable Agriculture Enterprises in Malta

Authors: Byron Baron

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Malta is a Mediterranean archipelago presenting a combination of environmental conditions which are less suitable for agriculture. This has resulted in a heavy dependence on agricultural chemicals, as well as over-extraction of groundwater, compounded by concomitant destruction of natural habitat surrounding the land areas used for agriculture. Such prolonged intensive land use has resulted in even greater degradation of Maltese soils. This study was thus designed with the goal of assessing the viability of implementing a sustainable agricultural system based on permaculture practices compared to the traditional local practices applied for intensive farming. The permaculture model was implemented over a period of two years for a number of locally-grown staple crops. The tangible targets included improved soil health, reduced water consumption, increased reliance on renewable energy, increased wild plant and insect diversity, and sustained crop yield. To achieve this in the permaculture test area, numerous practices were introduced. In line with permaculture principles land, tillage was reduced, only natural fertilisers were used, no herbicides or pesticides were used, irrigation was linked to a desalination system with sensors for monitoring soil parameters, mulching was practiced, and a photovoltaic system was installed. Furthermore, areas for wild plants were increased and controlled only by trimming, not mowing. A variety of environmental parameters were measured at regular intervals as well as crop yield (in kilos of produce) in order to quantify if any improvements in crop output and environmental conditions were obtained. The results obtained show a very slight improvement in overall soil health due to the brevity of the test period. Water consumption was reduced by over 50% with no apparent losses or ill effects on the crops. Renewable energy was sufficient to provide all electric power on-site, so apart from the initial investment costs, there were no limitations. Moreover, surrounding the commercial crops with borders of wild plants whilst only taking up less than 15% of the total land area assisted pollination, increased animal visitors, and did not give rise to any pest infestations. The conclusion from this study was that whilst results are promising, more detailed and long-term studies are required to understand the full extent of the implications brought about by such a transition, which hints towards the untapped potential of investing in the available resources on the island with the goal of improving the balance between economic prosperity and ecological sustainability.

Keywords: agronomic measures, ecological amplification, sustainability, permaculture

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109 An Analysis of Teacher Knowledge of Recognizing and Addressing the Needs of Traumatized Students

Authors: Tiffany Hollis

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Childhood trauma is well documented in mental health research, yet has received little attention in urban schools. Child trauma affects brain development and impacts cognitive, emotional, and behavioral functioning. When educators understand that some of the behaviors that appear to be aggressive in nature might be the result of a hidden diagnosis of trauma, learning can take place, and the child can thrive in the classroom setting. Traumatized children, however, do not fit neatly into any single ‘box.’ Although many children enter school each day carrying with them the experience of exposure to violence in the home, the symptoms of their trauma can be multifaceted and complex, requiring individualized therapeutic attention. The purpose of this study was to examine how prepared educators are to address the unique challenges facing children who experience trauma. Given the vast number of traumatized children in our society, it is evident that our education system must investigate ways to create an optimal learning environment that accounts for trauma, addresses its impact on cognitive and behavioral development, and facilitates mental and emotional health and well-being. The researcher describes the knowledge, attitudes, dispositions, and skills relating to trauma-informed knowledge of induction level teachers in a diverse middle school. The data for this study were collected through interviews with teachers, who are in the induction phase (the first three years of their teaching career). The study findings paint a clear picture of how ill-prepared educators are to address the needs of students who have experienced trauma and the implications for the development of a professional development workshop or series of workshops that train teachers how to recognize and address and respond to the needs of students. The study shows how teachers often lack skills to meet the needs of students who have experienced trauma. Traumatized children regularly carry a heavy weight on their shoulders. Children who have experienced trauma may feel that the world is filled with unresponsive, threatening adults, and peers. Despite this, supportive interventions can provide traumatized children with places to go that are safe, stimulating, and even fun. Schools offer an environment that potentially meets these requirements by creating safe spaces where students can feel at ease and have fun while also learning via stimulating educational activities. This study highlights the lack of preparedness of educators to address the academic, behavioral, and cognitive needs of students who have experienced trauma. These findings provide implications for the creation of a professional development workshop that addresses how to recognize and address the needs of students who have experienced some type of trauma. They also provide implications for future research with a focus on specific interventions that enable the creation of optimal learning environments where students who have experienced trauma and all students can succeed, regardless of their life experiences.

Keywords: educator preparation, induction educators, professional development, trauma-informed

Procedia PDF Downloads 126
108 The Photovoltaic Panel at End of Life: Experimental Study of Metals Release

Authors: M. Tammaro, S. Manzo, J. Rimauro, A. Salluzzo, S. Schiavo

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The solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are considered to have a negligible environmental impact compared to the fossil energy. Therefore also the waste management and the corresponding potential environmental hazard needs to be considered. The case of the photovoltaic panel is unique because the time lag from the manufacturing to the decommissioning as waste usually takes 25-30 years. Then the environmental hazard associated with end life of PV panels has been largely related to their metal contents. The principal concern regards the presence of heavy metals as Cd in thin film (TF) modules or Pb and Cr in crystalline silicon (c-Si) panels. At the end of life of PV panels, these dangerous substances could be released in the environment, if special requirements for their disposal are not adopted. Nevertheless, in literature, only a few experimental study about metal emissions from silicon crystalline/thin film panels and the corresponding environmental effect are present. As part of a study funded by the Italian national consortium for the waste collection and recycling (COBAT), the present work was aimed to analyze experimentally the potential release into the environment of hazardous elements, particularly metals, from PV waste. In this paper, for the first time, eighteen releasable metals a large number of photovoltaic panels, by c-Si and TF, manufactured in the last 30 years, together with the environmental effects by a battery of ecotoxicological tests, were investigated. Leaching tests are conducted on the crushed samples of PV module. The test is conducted according to Italian and European Standard procedure for hazard assessment of the granular waste and of the sludge. The sample material is shaken for 24 hours in HDPE bottles with an overhead mixer Rotax 6.8 VELP at indoor temperature and using pure water (18 MΩ resistivity) as leaching solution. The liquid-to-solid ratio was 10 (L/S=10, i.e. 10 liters of water per kg of solid). The ecotoxicological tests were performed in the subsequent 24 hours. A battery of toxicity test with bacteria (Vibrio fisheri), algae (Pseudochirneriella subcapitata) and crustacea (Daphnia magna) was carried out on PV panel leachates obtained as previously described and immediately stored in dark and at 4°C until testing (in the next 24 hours). For understand the actual pollution load, a comparison with the current European and Italian benchmark limits was performed. The trend of leachable metal amount from panels in relation to manufacturing years was then highlighted in order to assess the environmental sustainability of PV technology over time. The experimental results were very heterogeneous and show that the photovoltaic panels could represent an environmental hazard. The experimental results showed that the amounts of some hazardous metals (Pb, Cr, Cd, Ni), for c-Si and TF, exceed the law limits and they are a clear indication of the potential environmental risk of photovoltaic panels "as a waste" without a proper management.

Keywords: photovoltaic panel, environment, ecotoxicity, metals emission

Procedia PDF Downloads 260
107 Development a Forecasting System and Reliable Sensors for River Bed Degradation and Bridge Pier Scouring

Authors: Fong-Zuo Lee, Jihn-Sung Lai, Yung-Bin Lin, Xiaoqin Liu, Kuo-Chun Chang, Zhi-Xian Yang, Wen-Dar Guo, Jian-Hao Hong

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In recent years, climate change is a major factor to increase rainfall intensity and extreme rainfall frequency. The increased rainfall intensity and extreme rainfall frequency will increase the probability of flash flood with abundant sediment transport in a river basin. The floods caused by heavy rainfall may cause damages to the bridge, embankment, hydraulic works, and the other disasters. Therefore, the foundation scouring of bridge pier, embankment and spur dike caused by floods has been a severe problem in the worldwide. This severe problem has happened in many East Asian countries such as Taiwan and Japan because of these areas are suffered in typhoons, earthquakes, and flood events every year. Results from the complex interaction between fluid flow patterns caused by hydraulic works and the sediment transportation leading to the formation of river morphology, it is extremely difficult to develop a reliable and durable sensor to measure river bed degradation and bridge pier scouring. Therefore, an innovative scour monitoring sensor using vibration-based Micro-Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) was developed. This vibration-based MEMS sensor was packaged inside a stainless sphere with the proper protection of the full-filled resin, which can measure free vibration signals to detect scouring/deposition processes at the bridge pier. In addition, a friendly operational system includes rainfall runoff model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical model, and the applicability of sediment transport equation and local scour formulas of bridge pier are included in this research. The friendly operational system carries out the simulation results of flood events that includes the elevation changes of river bed erosion near the specified bridge pier and the erosion depth around bridge piers. In addition, the system is developed with easy operation and integrated interface, the system can supplies users to calibrate and verify numerical model and display simulation results through the interface comparing to the scour monitoring sensors. To achieve the forecast of the erosion depth of river bed and main bridge pier in the study area, the system also connects the rainfall forecast data from Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute. The results can be provided available information for the management unit of river and bridge engineering in advance.

Keywords: flash flood, river bed degradation, bridge pier scouring, a friendly operational system

Procedia PDF Downloads 191
106 The Effect of TiO₂ Nanoparticles on Zebrafish Embryos

Authors: Elena Maria Scalisi

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Currently, photodegradation by nanoparticles (NPs) is a common solution for wastewater treatment. Nanoparticles are efficient for removing organic and inorganic pollutants, heavy metals from wastewater and killing microorganisms through environmentally friendly. In this context, the major representative of photocatalytic technology for industrial wastewater treatment are TiO₂ nanoparticles (TiO₂-NPs). TiO₂-NPs have a strong catalytic activity that depends to their physicochemical properties. Thanks to their small size (between 1-100 nm), nanoparticles occupy less volume, then their surface area increases. The increase in the surface-to-volume ratio results in the increase of the particle surface energy, which improve their reactivity potential. However, these unique properties represent risks to the ecosystems and organisms when unintentionally TiO₂-NPs are release into the environment and absorbed by living organisms. Several studies confirm that there is a high level of interest concerning the safety of TiO₂-NPs in the aquatic environment, furthermore, ecotoxicological tools are useful to correctly evaluate their toxicity. In the current study, we aimed to characterize potential toxic effects of TiO₂-NP suspension to zebrafish during embryo-larval stages to evaluate parameters such as survival rates, malformation, hatching, the overall length of the larvae heartbeat, and biochemical biomarkers that reflect the acute toxicity and sublethal effects of TiO₂-NPs. Zebrafish embryos were exposed to titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO₂-NPs at 1mg/L, 2mg/L, and 4mg/L) from fertilization to the free swimming stage (144hpf). Every day, we recorded the toxicological endpoints, moreover, immunohistochemical analysis has been performed at the end of the exposure. In particular, we have evaluate the expression of the following biomarkers: Heat Shock Protein 70 (HSP70), Poly ADP-Ribose Polymerase-1 (PARP-1), Metallothioneins (MTs). Our results have shown that hatch ability, survival, and malformation rate were not affected by TiO₂ NPs at these exposure levels. However, TiO₂-NPs caused an increase of heartbeat and reduction of body length; at the same time, TiO₂-NPs have inducted the production of ROS and the expression of oxidative stress biomarkers HSP70 and PARP-1. Hight positivity for PARP-1 at all concentration tested was observed. As regards MT, positivity was found in the expression of this biomarker in the whole body of the embryo, with the exception of the end of the tail. Metallothioneins (MT) are biomarkers widely used in environmental monitoring programs for aquatic creatures. At the light of our results i.e. no death until the end of the experiment (144hpf), no malformation and expression of the biomarkers mentioned, it is evident that zebrafish larvae with their natural detoxification pathways are able to resist the presence of toxic substances and then they can tolerate the presence of metal concentrations. However, an excessive oxidative state can compromise cell function, therefore the uncontrolled release of nanoparticles into the environment is severe and must be constantly monitored.

Keywords: nanoparticles, embryo zebrafish, HSP70, PARP-1

Procedia PDF Downloads 139
105 Microbial Contamination of Cell Phones of Health Care Workers: Case Study in Mampong Municipal Government Hospital, Ghana

Authors: Francis Gyapong, Denis Yar

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The use of cell phones has become an indispensable tool in the hospital's settings. Cell phones are used in hospitals without restrictions regardless of their unknown microbial load. However, the indiscriminate use of mobile devices, especially at health facilities, can act as a vehicle for transmitting pathogenic bacteria and other microorganisms. These potential pathogens become exogenous sources of infection for the patients and are also a potential health hazard for self and as well as family members. These are a growing problem in many health care institutions. Innovations in mobile communication have led to better patient care in diabetes, asthma, and increased in vaccine uptake via SMS. Notwithstanding, the use of cell phones can be a great potential source for nosocomial infections. Many studies reported heavy microbial contamination of cell phones among healthcare workers and communities. However, limited studies have been reported in our region on bacterial contamination on cell phones among healthcare workers. This study assessed microbial contamination of cell phones of health care workers (HCWs) at the Mampong Municipal Government Hospital (MMGH), Ghana. A cross-sectional design was used to characterize bacterial microflora on cell phones of HCWs at the MMGH. A total of thirty-five (35) swab samples of cell phones of HCWs at the Laboratory, Dental Unit, Children’s Ward, Theater and Male ward were randomly collected for laboratory examinations. A suspension of the swab samples was each streak on blood and MacConkey agar and incubated at 37℃ for 48 hours. Bacterial isolates were identified using appropriate laboratory and biochemical tests. Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion method was used to determine the antimicrobial sensitivity tests of the isolates. Data analysis was performed using SPSS version 16. All mobile phones sampled were contaminated with one or more bacterial isolates. Cell phones from the Male ward, Dental Unit, Laboratory, Theatre and Children’s ward had at least three different bacterial isolates; 85.7%, 71.4%, 57.1% and 28.6% for both Theater and Children’s ward respectively. Bacterial contaminants identified were Staphylococcus epidermidis (37%), Staphylococcus aureus (26%), E. coli (20%), Bacillus spp. (11%) and Klebsiella spp. (6 %). Except for the Children ward, E. coli was isolated at all study sites and predominant (42.9%) at the Dental Unit while Klebsiella spp. (28.6%) was only isolated at the Children’s ward. Antibiotic sensitivity testing of Staphylococcus aureus indicated that they were highly sensitive to cephalexin (89%) tetracycline (80%), gentamycin (75%), lincomycin (70%), ciprofloxacin (67%) and highly resistant to ampicillin (75%). Some of these bacteria isolated are potential pathogens and their presence on cell phones of HCWs could be transmitted to patients and their families. Hence strict hand washing before and after every contact with patient and phone be enforced to reduce the risk of nosocomial infections.

Keywords: mobile phones, bacterial contamination, patients, MMGH

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
104 Spatial Variability of Soil Metal Contamination to Detect Cancer Risk Zones in Coimbatore Region of India

Authors: Aarthi Mariappan, Janani Selvaraj, P. B. Harathi, M. Prashanthi Devi

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Anthropogenic modification of the urban environment has largely increased in the recent years in order to sustain the growing human population. Intense industrial activity, permanent and high traffic on the roads, a developed subterranean infrastructure network, land use patterns are just some specific characteristics. Every day, the urban environment is polluted by more or less toxic emissions, organic or metals wastes discharged from specific activities such as industrial, commercial, municipal. When these eventually deposit into the soil, the physical and chemical properties of the surrounding soil is changed, transforming it into a human exposure indicator. Metals are non-degradable and occur cumulative in soil due to regular deposits are a result of permanent human activity. Due to this, metals are a contaminant factor for soil when persistent over a long period of time and a possible danger for inhabitant’s health on prolonged exposure. Metals accumulated in contaminated soil may be transferred to humans directly, by inhaling the dust raised from top soil, or by ingesting, or by dermal contact and indirectly, through plants and animals grown on contaminated soil and used for food. Some metals, like Cu, Mn, Zn, are beneficial for human’s health and represent a danger only if their concentration is above permissible levels, but other metals, like Pb, As, Cd, Hg, are toxic even at trace level causing gastrointestinal and lung cancers. In urban areas, metals can be emitted from a wide variety of sources like industrial, residential, commercial activities. Our study interrogates the spatial distribution of heavy metals in soil in relation to their permissible levels and their association with the health risk to the urban population in Coimbatore, India. Coimbatore region is a high cancer risk zone and case records of gastro intestinal and respiratory cancer patients were collected from hospitals and geocoded in ArcGIS10.1. The data of patients pertaining to the urban limits were retained and checked for their diseases history based on their diagnosis and treatment. A disease map of cancer was prepared to show the disease distribution. It has been observed that in our study area Cr, Pb, As, Fe and Mg exceeded their permissible levels in the soil. Using spatial overlay analysis a relationship between environmental exposure to these potentially toxic elements in soil and cancer distribution in Coimbatore district was established to show areas of cancer risk. Through this, our study throws light on the impact of prolonged exposure to soil contamination in soil in the urban zones, thereby exploring the possibility to detect cancer risk zones and to create awareness among the exposed groups on cancer risk.

Keywords: soil contamination, cancer risk, spatial analysis, India

Procedia PDF Downloads 403
103 Fractional, Component and Morphological Composition of Ambient Air Dust in the Areas of Mining Industry

Authors: S.V. Kleyn, S.Yu. Zagorodnov, А.А. Kokoulina

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Technogenic emissions of the mining and processing complex are characterized by a high content of chemical components and solid dust particles. However, each industrial enterprise and the surrounding area have features that require refinement and parameterization. Numerous studies have shown the negative impact of fine dust PM10 and PM2.5 on the health, as well as the possibility of toxic components absorption, including heavy metals by dust particles. The target of the study was the quantitative assessment of the fractional and particle size composition of ambient air dust in the area of impact by primary magnesium production complex. Also, we tried to describe the morphology features of dust particles. Study methods. To identify the dust emission sources, the analysis of the production process has been carried out. The particulate composition of the emissions was measured using laser particle analyzer Microtrac S3500 (covered range of particle size is 20 nm to 2000 km). Particle morphology and the component composition were established by electron microscopy by scanning microscope of high resolution (magnification rate - 5 to 300 000 times) with X-ray fluorescence device S3400N ‘HITACHI’. The chemical composition was identified by X-ray analysis of the samples using an X-ray diffractometer XRD-700 ‘Shimadzu’. Determination of the dust pollution level was carried out using model calculations of emissions in the atmosphere dispersion. The calculations were verified by instrumental studies. Results of the study. The results demonstrated that the dust emissions of different technical processes are heterogeneous and fractional structure is complicated. The percentage of particle sizes up to 2.5 micrometres inclusive was ranged from 0.00 to 56.70%; particle sizes less than 10 microns inclusive – 0.00 - 85.60%; particle sizes greater than 10 microns - 14.40% -100.00%. During microscopy, the presence of nanoscale size particles has been detected. Studied dust particles are round, irregular, cubic and integral shapes. The composition of the dust includes magnesium, sodium, potassium, calcium, iron, chlorine. On the base of obtained results, it was performed the model calculations of dust emissions dispersion and establishment of the areas of fine dust РМ 10 and РМ 2.5 distribution. It was found that the dust emissions of fine powder fractions PM10 and PM2.5 are dispersed over large distances and beyond the border of the industrial site of the enterprise. The population living near the enterprise is exposed to the risk of diseases associated with dust exposure. Data are transferred to the economic entity to make decisions on the measures to minimize the risks. Exposure and risks indicators on the health are used to provide named patient health and preventive care to the citizens living in the area of negative impact of the facility.

Keywords: dust emissions, еxposure assessment, PM 10, PM 2.5

Procedia PDF Downloads 262
102 Determination of Physical Properties of Crude Oil Distillates by Near-Infrared Spectroscopy and Multivariate Calibration

Authors: Ayten Ekin Meşe, Selahattin Şentürk, Melike Duvanoğlu

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Petroleum refineries are a highly complex process industry with continuous production and high operating costs. Physical separation of crude oil starts with the crude oil distillation unit, continues with various conversion and purification units, and passes through many stages until obtaining the final product. To meet the desired product specification, process parameters are strictly followed. To be able to ensure the quality of distillates, routine analyses are performed in quality control laboratories based on appropriate international standards such as American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standard methods and European Standard (EN) methods. The cut point of distillates in the crude distillation unit is very crucial for the efficiency of the upcoming processes. In order to maximize the process efficiency, the determination of the quality of distillates should be as fast as possible, reliable, and cost-effective. In this sense, an alternative study was carried out on the crude oil distillation unit that serves the entire refinery process. In this work, studies were conducted with three different crude oil distillates which are Light Straight Run Naphtha (LSRN), Heavy Straight Run Naphtha (HSRN), and Kerosene. These products are named after separation by the number of carbons it contains. LSRN consists of five to six carbon-containing hydrocarbons, HSRN consist of six to ten, and kerosene consists of sixteen to twenty-two carbon-containing hydrocarbons. Physical properties of three different crude distillation unit products (LSRN, HSRN, and Kerosene) were determined using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy with multivariate calibration. The absorbance spectra of the petroleum samples were obtained in the range from 10000 cm⁻¹ to 4000 cm⁻¹, employing a quartz transmittance flow through cell with a 2 mm light path and a resolution of 2 cm⁻¹. A total of 400 samples were collected for each petroleum sample for almost four years. Several different crude oil grades were processed during sample collection times. Extended Multiplicative Signal Correction (EMSC) and Savitzky-Golay (SG) preprocessing techniques were applied to FT-NIR spectra of samples to eliminate baseline shifts and suppress unwanted variation. Two different multivariate calibration approaches (Partial Least Squares Regression, PLS and Genetic Inverse Least Squares, GILS) and an ensemble model were applied to preprocessed FT-NIR spectra. Predictive performance of each multivariate calibration technique and preprocessing techniques were compared, and the best models were chosen according to the reproducibility of ASTM reference methods. This work demonstrates the developed models can be used for routine analysis instead of conventional analytical methods with over 90% accuracy.

Keywords: crude distillation unit, multivariate calibration, near infrared spectroscopy, data preprocessing, refinery

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
101 Conceptual Design of Gravity Anchor Focusing on Anchor Towing and Lowering

Authors: Vinay Kumar Vanjakula, Frank Adam, Nils Goseberg

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Wind power is one of the leading renewable energy generation methods. Due to abundant higher wind speeds far away from shore, the construction of offshore wind turbines began in the last decades. However, installation of offshore foundation-based (monopiles) wind turbines in deep waters are often associated with technical and financial challenges. To overcome such challenges, the concept of floating wind turbines is expanded as the basis from the oil and gas industry. The unfolding of Universal heavyweight gravity anchor (UGA) for floating based foundation for floating Tension Leg Platform (TLP) sub-structures is developed in this research work. It is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research) for a three-year (2019-2022) research program called “Offshore Wind Solutions Plus (OWSplus) - Floating Offshore Wind Solutions Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.” It’s a group consists of German institutions (Universities, laboratories, and consulting companies). The part of the project is focused on the numerical modeling of gravity anchor that involves to analyze and solve fluid flow problems. Compared to gravity-based torpedo anchors, these UGA will be towed and lowered via controlled machines (tug boats) at lower speeds. This kind of installation of UGA are new to the offshore wind industry, particularly for TLP, and very few research works have been carried out in recent years. Conventional methods for transporting the anchor requires a large transportation crane vessel which involves a greater cost. This conceptual UGA anchors consists of ballasting chambers which utilizes the concept of buoyancy forces; the inside chambers are filled with the required amount of water in a way that they can float on the water for towing. After reaching the installation site, those chambers are ballasted with water for lowering. After it’s lifetime, these UGA can be unballasted (for erection or replacement) results in self-rising to the sea surface; buoyancy chambers give an advantage for using an UGA without the need of heavy machinery. However, while lowering/rising the UGA towards/away from the seabed, it experiences difficult, harsh marine environments due to the interaction of waves and currents. This leads to drifting of the anchor from the desired installation position and damage to the lowering machines. To overcome such harsh environments problems, a numerical model is built to investigate the influences of different outer contours and other fluid governing shapes that can be installed on the UGA to overcome the turbulence and drifting. The presentation will highlight the importance of the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) numerical model in OpenFOAM, which is open-source programming software.

Keywords: anchor lowering, towing, waves, currrents, computational fluid dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 167
100 Impact of Financial Factors on Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Sector

Authors: Lopamudra D. Satpathy, Bani Chatterjee, Jitendra Mahakud

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The rapid economic growth in terms of output and investment necessitates a substantial growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of firms which is an indicator of an economy’s technological change. The strong empirical relationship between financial sector development and economic growth clearly indicates that firms financing decisions do affect their levels of output via their investment decisions. Hence it establishes a linkage between the financial factors and productivity growth of the firms. To achieve the smooth and continuous economic growth over time, it is imperative to understand the financial channel that serves as one of the vital channels. The theoretical or logical argument behind this linkage is that when the internal financial capital is not sufficient enough for the investment, the firms always rely upon the external sources of finance. But due to the frictions and existence of information asymmetric behavior, it is always costlier for the firms to raise the external capital from the market, which in turn affect their investment sentiment and productivity. This kind of financial position of the firms puts heavy pressure on their productive activities. Keeping in view this theoretical background, the present study has tried to analyze the role of both external and internal financial factors (leverage, cash flow and liquidity) on the determination of total factor productivity of the firms of manufacturing industry and its sub-industries, maintaining a set of firm specific variables as control variables (size, age and disembodied technological intensity). An estimate of total factor productivity of the Indian manufacturing industry and sub-industries is computed using a semi-parametric approach, i.e., Levinsohn- Petrin method. It establishes the relationship between financial factors and productivity growth of 652 firms using a dynamic panel GMM method covering the time period between 1997-98 and 2012-13. From the econometric analyses, it has been found that the internal cash flow has a positive and significant impact on the productivity of overall manufacturing sector. The other financial factors like leverage and liquidity also play the significant role in the determination of total factor productivity of the Indian manufacturing sector. The significant role of internal cash flow on determination of firm-level productivity suggests that access to external finance is not available to Indian companies easily. Further, the negative impact of leverage on productivity could be due to the less developed bond market in India. These findings have certain implications for the policy makers to take various policy reforms to develop the external bond market and easily workout through which the financially constrained companies will be able to raise the financial capital in a cost-effective manner and would be able to influence their investments in the highly productive activities, which would help for the acceleration of economic growth.

Keywords: dynamic panel, financial factors, manufacturing sector, total factor productivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 332
99 Trophic Variations in Uptake and Assimilation of Cadmium, Manganese and Zinc: An Estuarine Food-Chain Radiotracer Experiment

Authors: K. O’Mara, T. Cresswell

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Nearly half of the world’s population live near the coast, and as a result, estuaries and coastal bays in populated or industrialized areas often receive metal pollution. Heavy metals have a chemical affinity for sediment particles and can be stored in estuarine sediments and become biologically available under changing conditions. Organisms inhabiting estuaries can be exposed to metals from a variety of sources including metals dissolved in water, bound to sediment or within contaminated prey. Metal uptake and assimilation responses can vary even between species that are biologically similar, making pollution effects difficult to predict. A multi-trophic level experiment representing a common Eastern Australian estuarine food chain was used to study the sources for Cd, Mn and Zn uptake and assimilation in organisms occupying several trophic levels. Sand cockles (Katelysia scalarina), school prawns (Metapenaeus macleayi) and sand whiting (Sillago ciliata) were exposed to radiolabelled seawater, suspended sediment and food. Three pulse-chase trials on filter-feeding sand cockles were performed using radiolabelled phytoplankton (Tetraselmis sp.), benthic microalgae (Entomoneis sp.) and suspended sediment. Benthic microalgae had lower metal uptake than phytoplankton during labelling but higher cockle assimilation efficiencies (Cd = 51%, Mn = 42%, Zn = 63 %) than both phytoplankton (Cd = 21%, Mn = 32%, Zn = 33%) and suspended sediment (except Mn; (Cd = 38%, Mn = 42%, Zn = 53%)). Sand cockles were also sensitive to uptake of Cd, Mn and Zn dissolved in seawater. Uptake of these metals from the dissolved phase was negligible in prawns and fish, with prawns only accumulating metals during moulting, which were then lost with subsequent moulting in the depuration phase. Diet appears to be the main source of metal assimilation in school prawns, with 65%, 54% and 58% assimilation efficiencies from Cd, Mn and Zn respectively. Whiting fed contaminated prawns were able to exclude the majority of the metal activity through egestion, with only 10%, 23% and 11% assimilation efficiencies from Cd, Mn and Zn respectively. The findings of this study support previous studies that find diet to be the dominant accumulation source for higher level trophic organisms. These results show that assimilation efficiencies can vary depending on the source of exposure; sand cockles assimilated more Cd, Mn, and Zn from the benthic diatom than phytoplankton and assimilation was higher in sand whiting fed prawns compared to artificial pellets. The sensitivity of sand cockles to metal uptake and assimilation from a variety of sources poses concerns for metal availability to predators ingesting the clam tissue, including humans. The high tolerance of sand whiting to these metals is reflected in their widespread presence in Eastern Australian estuaries, including contaminated estuaries such as Botany Bay and Port Jackson.

Keywords: cadmium, food chain, metal, manganese, trophic, zinc

Procedia PDF Downloads 203
98 Exploring the Role of Hydrogen to Achieve the Italian Decarbonization Targets using an OpenScience Energy System Optimization Model

Authors: Alessandro Balbo, Gianvito Colucci, Matteo Nicoli, Laura Savoldi

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Hydrogen is expected to become an undisputed player in the ecological transition throughout the next decades. The decarbonization potential offered by this energy vector provides various opportunities for the so-called “hard-to-abate” sectors, including industrial production of iron and steel, glass, refineries and the heavy-duty transport. In this regard, Italy, in the framework of decarbonization plans for the whole European Union, has been considering a wider use of hydrogen to provide an alternative to fossil fuels in hard-to-abate sectors. This work aims to assess and compare different options concerning the pathway to be followed in the development of the future Italian energy system in order to meet decarbonization targets as established by the Paris Agreement and by the European Green Deal, and to infer a techno-economic analysis of the required asset alternatives to be used in that perspective. To accomplish this objective, the Energy System Optimization Model TEMOA-Italy is used, based on the open-source platform TEMOA and developed at PoliTo as a tool to be used for technology assessment and energy scenario analysis. The adopted assessment strategy includes two different scenarios to be compared with a business-as-usual one, which considers the application of current policies in a time horizon up to 2050. The studied scenarios are based on the up-to-date hydrogen-related targets and planned investments included in the National Hydrogen Strategy and in the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan, with the purpose of providing a critical assessment of what they propose. One scenario imposes decarbonization objectives for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050, without any other specific target. The second one (inspired to the national objectives on the development of the sector) promotes the deployment of the hydrogen value-chain. These scenarios provide feedback about the applications hydrogen could have in the Italian energy system, including transport, industry and synfuels production. Furthermore, the decarbonization scenario where hydrogen production is not imposed, will make use of this energy vector as well, showing the necessity of its exploitation in order to meet pledged targets by 2050. The distance of the planned policies from the optimal conditions for the achievement of Italian objectives is be clarified, revealing possible improvements of various steps of the decarbonization pathway, which seems to have as a fundamental element Carbon Capture and Utilization technologies for its accomplishment. In line with the European Commission open science guidelines, the transparency and the robustness of the presented results is ensured by the adoption of the open-source open-data model such as the TEMOA-Italy.

Keywords: decarbonization, energy system optimization models, hydrogen, open-source modeling, TEMOA

Procedia PDF Downloads 74
97 Morphology, Qualitative, and Quantitative Elemental Analysis of Pheasant Eggshells in Thailand

Authors: Kalaya Sribuddhachart, Mayuree Pumipaiboon, Mayuva Youngsabanant-Areekijseree

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The ultrastructure of 20 species of pheasant eggshells in Thailand, (Simese Fireback, Lophura diardi), (Silver Pheasant, Lophura nycthemera), (Kalij Pheasant, Lophura leucomelanos crawfurdii), (Kalij Pheasant, Lophura leucomelanos lineata), (Red Junglefowl, Gallus gallus spadiceus), (Crested Fireback, Lophura ignita rufa), (Green Peafowl, Pavo muticus), (Indian Peafowl, Pavo cristatus), (Grey Peacock Pheasant, Polyplectron bicalcaratum bicalcaratum), (Lesser Bornean Fireback, Lophura ignita ignita), (Green Junglefowl, Gallus varius), (Hume's Pheasant, Syrmaticus humiae humiae), (Himalayan Monal, Lophophorus impejanus), Golden Pheasant, Chrysolophus pictus, (Ring-Neck Pheasant, Phasianus sp.), (Reeves’s Pheasant, Syrmaticus reevesi), (Polish Chicken, Gallus sp.), (Brahma Chicken, Gallus sp.), (Yellow Golden Pheasant, Chrysolophus pictus luteus), and (Lady Amhersts Pheasant, Chrysolophus amherstiae) were studied by Secondary electron imaging (SEI) and Energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX) detectors of scanning electron microscope. Generally, all pheasant eggshells showed 3 layers of cuticle, palisade, and mammillary. The total thickness was ranging from 190.28±5.94-838.96±16.31µm. The palisade layer is the most thickness layer following by mammillary and cuticle layers. The palisade layer in all pheasant eggshells consisted of numerous vesicle holes that were firmly forming as network thorough the layer. The vesicle holes in all pheasant eggshells had difference porosity ranging from 0.44±0.11-0.23±0.05 µm. While the mammillary layer was the most compact layer with a variable shape (broad-base V and U-shape) connect to shell membrane. Elemental analysis by of 20 specie eggshells showed 9 apparent elements including carbon (C), oxygen (O), calcium (Ca), phosphorous (P), sulfur (S), magnesium (Mg), silicon (Si), aluminum (Al), and copper (Cu) at the percentage of 28.90- 8.33%, 60.64-27.61%, 55.30-14.49%, 1.97-0.03%, 0.08-0.03%, 0.50-0.16%, 0.30-0.04%, 0.06-0.02%, and 2.67-1.73%, respectively. It was found that Ca, C, and O showed highest elemental compositions, which essential for pheasant embryonic development, mainly presented as composited structure of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) more than 97%. Meanwhile, Mg, S, Si, Al, and P were major inorganic constituents of the eggshells which directly related to an increase of the shell hardness. Finally, the percentage of heavy metal copper (Cu) has been observed in 4 eggshell species. There are Golden Pheasant (2.67±0.16%), Indian Peafowl (2.61±0.13%), Green Peafowl (1.97±0.74%), and Silver Pheasant (1.73±0.11%), respectively. A non-significant difference was found in the percentages of 9 elements in all pheasant eggshells. This study is useful to provide the information of biology and taxonomic of pheasant study in Thailand for conservation.

Keywords: pheasants eggshells, secondary electron imaging (SEI) and energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX), morphology, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 235
96 Optical and Structural Characterization of Rare Earth Doped Phosphate Glasses

Authors: Zélia Maria Da Costa Ludwig, Maria José Valenzuela Bell, Geraldo Henriques Da Silva, Thales Alves Faraco, Victor Rocha Da Silva, Daniel Rotmeister Teixeira, Vírgilio De Carvalho Dos Anjos, Valdemir Ludwig

Abstract:

Advances in telecommunications grow with the development of optical amplifiers based on rare earth ions. The focus has been concentrated in silicate glasses although their amplified spontaneous emission is limited to a few tens of nanometers (~ 40nm). Recently, phosphate glasses have received great attention due to their potential application in optical data transmission, detection, sensors and laser detector, waveguide and optical fibers, besides its excellent physical properties such as high thermal expansion coefficients and low melting temperature. Compared with the silica glasses, phosphate glasses provide different optical properties such as, large transmission window of infrared, and good density. Research on the improvement of physical and chemical durability of phosphate glass by addition of heavy metals oxides in P2O5 has been performed. The addition of Na2O further improves the solubility of rare earths, while increasing the Al2O3 links in the P2O5 tetrahedral results in increased durability and aqueous transition temperature and a decrease of the coefficient of thermal expansion. This work describes the structural and spectroscopic characterization of a phosphate glass matrix doped with different Er (Erbium) concentrations. The phosphate glasses containing Er3+ ions have been prepared by melt technique. A study of the optical absorption, luminescence and lifetime was conducted in order to characterize the infrared emission of Er3+ ions at 1540 nm, due to the radiative transition 4I13/2 → 4I15/2. Our results indicate that the present glass is a quite good matrix for Er3+ ions, and the quantum efficiency of the 1540 nm emission was high. A quenching mechanism for the mentioned luminescence was not observed up to 2,0 mol% of Er concentration. The Judd-Ofelt parameters, radiative lifetime and quantum efficiency have been determined in order to evaluate the potential of Er3+ ions in new phosphate glass. The parameters follow the trend as Ω2 > Ω4 > Ω6. It is well known that the parameter Ω2 is an indication of the dominant covalent nature and/or structural changes in the vicinity of the ion (short range effects), while Ω4 and Ω6 intensity parameters are long range parameters that can be related to the bulk properties such as viscosity and rigidity of the glass. From the PL measurements, no red or green upconversion was measured when pumping the samples with laser excitation at 980 nm. As future prospects: Synthesize this glass system with silver in order to determine the influence of silver nanoparticles on the Er3+ ions.

Keywords: phosphate glass, erbium, luminescence, glass system

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95 Gradient Length Anomaly Analysis for Landslide Vulnerability Analysis of Upper Alaknanda River Basin, Uttarakhand Himalayas, India

Authors: Hasmithaa Neha, Atul Kumar Patidar, Girish Ch Kothyari

Abstract:

The northward convergence of the Indian plate has a dominating influence over the structural and geomorphic development of the Himalayan region. The highly deformed and complex stratigraphy in the area arises from a confluence of exogenic and endogenetic geological processes. This region frequently experiences natural hazards such as debris flows, flash floods, avalanches, landslides, and earthquakes due to its harsh and steep topography and fragile rock formations. Therefore, remote sensing technique-based examination and real-time monitoring of tectonically sensitive regions may provide crucial early warnings and invaluable data for effective hazard mitigation strategies. In order to identify unusual changes in the river gradients, the current study demonstrates a spatial quantitative geomorphic analysis of the upper Alaknanda River basin, Uttarakhand Himalaya, India, using gradient length anomaly analysis (GLAA). This basin is highly vulnerable to ground creeping and landslides due to the presence of active faults/thrusts, toe-cutting of slopes for road widening, development of heavy engineering projects on the highly sheared bedrock, and periodic earthquakes. The intersecting joint sets developed in the bedrocks have formed wedges that have facilitated the recurrence of several landslides. The main objective of current research is to identify abnormal gradient lengths, indicating potential landslide-prone zones. High-resolution digital elevation data and geospatial techniques are used to perform this analysis. The results of GLAA are corroborated with the historical landslide events and ultimately used for the generation of landslide susceptibility maps of the current study area. The preliminary results indicate that approximately 3.97% of the basin is stable, while about 8.54% is classified as moderately stable and suitable for human habitation. However, roughly 19.89% fall within the zone of moderate vulnerability, 38.06% are classified as vulnerable, and 29% fall within the highly vulnerable zones, posing risks for geohazards, including landslides, glacial avalanches, and earthquakes. This research provides valuable insights into the spatial distribution of landslide-prone areas. It offers a basis for implementing proactive measures for landslide risk reduction, including land-use planning, early warning systems, and infrastructure development techniques.

Keywords: landslide vulnerability, geohazard, GLA, upper Alaknanda Basin, Uttarakhand Himalaya

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94 Current Deflecting Wall: A Promising Structure for Minimising Siltation in Semi-Enclosed Docks

Authors: A. A. Purohit, A. Basu, K. A. Chavan, M. D. Kudale

Abstract:

Many estuarine harbours in the world are facing the problem of siltation in docks, channel entrances, etc. The harbours in India are not an exception and require maintenance dredging to achieve navigable depths for keeping them operable. Hence, dredging is inevitable and is a costly affair. The heavy siltation in docks in well mixed tide dominated estuaries is mainly due to settlement of cohesive sediments in suspension. As such there is a need to have a permanent solution for minimising the siltation in such docks to alter the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation by constructing structures outside the dock. One of such docks on the west coast of India, wherein siltation of about 2.5-3 m/annum prevails, was considered to understand the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation. The dock is situated in such a region where macro type of semi-diurnal tide (range of about 5m) prevails. In order to change the flow field responsible for siltation inside the dock, suitability of Current Deflecting Wall (CDW) outside the dock was studied, which will minimise the sediment exchange rate and siltation in the dock. The well calibrated physical tidal model was used to understand the flow field during various phases of tide for the existing dock in Mumbai harbour. At the harbour entrance where the tidal flux exchanges in/out of the dock, measurements on water level and current were made to estimate the sediment transport capacity. The distorted scaled model (1:400 (H) & 1:80 (V)) of Mumbai area was used to study the tidal flow phenomenon, wherein tides are generated by automatic tide generator. Hydraulic model studies carried out under the existing condition (without CDW) reveal that, during initial hours of flood tide, flow hugs the docks breakwater and part of flow which enters the dock forms number of eddies of varying sizes inside the basin, while remaining part of flow bypasses the entrance of dock. During ebb, flow direction reverses, and part of the flow re-enters the dock from outside and creates eddies at its entrance. These eddies do not allow water/sediment-mass to come out and result in settlement of sediments in dock both due to eddies and more retention of sediment. At latter hours, current strength outside the dock entrance reduces and allows the water-mass of dock to come out. In order to improve flow field inside the dockyard, two CDWs of length 300 m and 40 m were proposed outside the dock breakwater and inline to Pier-wall at dock entrance. Model studies reveal that, during flood, major flow gets deflected away from the entrance and no eddies are formed inside the dock, while during ebb flow does not re-enter the dock, and sediment flux immediately starts emptying it during initial hours of ebb. This reduces not only the entry of sediment in dock by about 40% but also the deposition by about 42% due to less retention. Thus, CDW is a promising solution to significantly reduce siltation in dock.

Keywords: current deflecting wall, eddies, hydraulic model, macro tide, siltation

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93 Geomorphology and Flood Analysis Using Light Detection and Ranging

Authors: George R. Puno, Eric N. Bruno

Abstract:

The natural landscape of the Philippine archipelago plus the current realities of climate change make the country vulnerable to flood hazards. Flooding becomes the recurring natural disaster in the country resulting to lose of lives and properties. Musimusi is among the rivers which exhibited inundation particularly at the inhabited floodplain portion of its watershed. During the event, rescue operations and distribution of relief goods become a problem due to lack of high resolution flood maps to aid local government unit identify the most affected areas. In the attempt of minimizing impact of flooding, hydrologic modelling with high resolution mapping is becoming more challenging and important. This study focused on the analysis of flood extent as a function of different geomorphologic characteristics of Musimusi watershed. The methods include the delineation of morphometric parameters in the Musimusi watershed using Geographic Information System (GIS) and geometric calculations tools. Digital Terrain Model (DTM) as one of the derivatives of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology was used to determine the extent of river inundation involving the application of Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and Hydrology Modelling System (HEC-HMS) models. The digital elevation model (DEM) from synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) was used to delineate watershed boundary and river network. Datasets like mean sea level, river cross section, river stage, discharge and rainfall were also used as input parameters. Curve number (CN), vegetation, and soil properties were calibrated based on the existing condition of the site. Results showed that the drainage density value of the watershed is low which indicates that the basin is highly permeable subsoil and thick vegetative cover. The watershed’s elongation ratio value of 0.9 implies that the floodplain portion of the watershed is susceptible to flooding. The bifurcation ratio value of 2.1 indicates higher risk of flooding in localized areas of the watershed. The circularity ratio value (1.20) indicates that the basin is circular in shape, high discharge of runoff and low permeability of the subsoil condition. The heavy rainfall of 167 mm brought by Typhoon Seniang last December 29, 2014 was characterized as high intensity and long duration, with a return period of 100 years produced 316 m3s-1 outflows. Portion of the floodplain zone (1.52%) suffered inundation with 2.76 m depth at the maximum. The information generated in this study is helpful to the local disaster risk reduction management council in monitoring the affected sites for more appropriate decisions so that cost of rescue operations and relief goods distribution is minimized.

Keywords: flooding, geomorphology, mapping, watershed

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92 Belarus Rivers Runoff: Current State, Prospects

Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka

Abstract:

The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.

Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff

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