Search results for: climate impacts

Authors: Victoria Bessonova, Robert Dorrell, Nina Dethlefs, Evdokia Tapoglou, Katharine York

Abstract:

As the global pursuit of renewable energy intensifies, offshore wind farms have emerged as a promising solution to combat climate change. The global offshore wind installed capacity is projected to increase 56-fold by 2055. However, the impacts of climate change, particularly changes in wave climate, are not widely understood. Offshore wind installation and maintenance activities often require specific weather windows, characterized by calm seas and low wave heights, to ensure safe and efficient operations. However, climate change-induced alterations in wave characteristics can reduce the availability of suitable weather windows, leading to delays and disruptions in project timelines. it applied the operational limits of installation and maintenance vessels to past and future climate wave projections. This revealed changes in the annual and monthly accessibility of offshore wind farms at key global development locations. When accessibility is only defined by significant wave height, spatial patterns in the annual accessibility roughly follow changes in significant wave height, with increased availability where significant wave height is decreasing. This resulted in a 1-6% increase in Europe and North America and a similar decrease in South America, Australia and Asia. Monthly changes suggest unchanged or slightly decreased (1-2%) accessibility in summer months and increased (2-6%) in winter. Further assessment includes assessing the sensitivity of accessibility to operational limits defined by wave height combined with wave period and wave height combined with wind speed. Results of this assessment will be included in the presentation. These findings will help stakeholders inform climate change adaptations in installation and maintenance planning practices.

Keywords: climate change, offshore wind, offshore wind installation, operations and maintenance, wave climate, wind farm accessibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Hussien Ali, Mesfin Menza, Fitsum Hagos, Amare Haileslassie

Abstract:

Climate change has perverse effects on agricultural productivity and natural resource base, negatively affecting the well-being of the households and communities. The government and NGOs promote climate smart agricultural (CSA) practices to help farmers adapt to and mitigate the negative effects of climate change. This study aims to identify widely available CSA practices and examine their impacts on food security and multi-dimensional poverty of rural farm households in the Central Rift Valley, Ethiopia. Using three-stage proportional to size sampling procedure, the study randomly selected 278 households from two kebeles from four districts each. A cross-sectional data of 2020/21 cropping season was collected using structured and pretested survey questionnaire. Food consumption score, dietary diversity score, food insecurity experience scale, and multidimensional poverty index were calculated to measure households’ welfare indicators. Multinomial endogenous switching regression model was used to assess average treatment effects of CSA on these outcome indicators on adopter and non-adopter households. The results indicate that the widely adopted CSA practices in the area are conservation agriculture, soil fertility management, crop diversification, and small-scale irrigation. Adopter households have, on average, statistically higher food consumption score, dietary diversity score and lower food insecurity access scale than non-adopters. Moreover, adopter households, on average, have lower deprivation score in multidimensional poverty compared to non-adopter households. Up scaling the adoption of CSA practices through the improvement of households’ implementation capacity and better information, technical advice, and innovative financing mechanisms is advised. Up scaling CSA practices can further promote achieving global goals such as SDG 1, SDG 2, and SDG 13 targets, aimed to end poverty and hunger and mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, respectively.

Keywords: climate-smart agriculture, food security, multidimensional poverty, upscaling CSA, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Linda Márcia Mendes Delazeri, Dênis Antônio Da Cunha

Abstract:

Over the past few years, the evidence that human activities have altered the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have become stronger, indicating that this accumulation is the most likely cause of climate change observed so far. The risks associated with climate change, although uncertain, have the potential to increase social vulnerability, exacerbating existing socioeconomic challenges. Developing countries are potentially the most affected by climate change, since they have less potential to adapt and are those most dependent on agricultural activities, one of the sectors in which the major negative impacts are expected. In Brazil, specifically, it is expected that the localities which form the semiarid region are among the most affected, due to existing irregularity in rainfall and high temperatures, in addition to economic and social factors endemic to the region. Given the strategic limitations to handle the environmental shocks caused by climate change, an alternative adopted in response to these shocks is migration. Understanding the specific features of migration flows, such as duration, destination and composition is essential to understand the impacts of migration on origin and destination locations and to develop appropriate policies. Thus, this study aims to examine whether climatic factors have contributed to rural-urban migration in semiarid municipalities in the recent past and how these migration flows will be affected by future scenarios of climate change. The study was based on microeconomic theory of utility maximization, in which, to decide to leave the countryside and move on to the urban area, the individual seeks to maximize its utility. Analytically, we estimated an econometric model using the modeling of Fixed Effects and the results confirmed the expectation that climate drivers are crucial for the occurrence of the rural-urban migration. Also, other drivers of the migration process, as economic, social and demographic factors were also important. Additionally, predictions about the rural-urban migration motivated by variations in temperature and precipitation in the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 were made for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that there will be increased rural-urban migration in the semiarid region in both scenarios and in both periods. In general, the results of this study reinforce the need for formulations of public policies to avoid migration for climatic reasons, such as policies that give support to the productive activities generating income in rural areas. By providing greater incentives for family agriculture and expanding sources of credit for the farmer, it will have a better position to face climate adversities and to settle in rural areas. Ultimately, if migration becomes necessary, there must be the adoption of policies that seek an organized and planned development of urban areas, considering migration as an adaptation strategy to adverse climate effects. Thus, policies that act to absorb migrants in urban areas and ensure that they have access to basic services offered to the urban population would contribute to the social costs reduction of climate variability.

Keywords: climate change, migration, rural productivity, semiarid region

Procedia PDF Downloads 320

Authors: Kamalpreet Kaur, Renu Dhir

Abstract:

Climate prediction is an essential component of climate research, which helps evaluate possible effects on economies, communities, and ecosystems. Climate prediction involves short-term weather prediction, seasonal prediction, and long-term climate change prediction. Climate prediction can use the information gathered from satellites, ground-based stations, and ocean buoys, among other sources. The paper's four architectures, such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception, have been combined using an ensemble approach for overall performance and robustness. An ensemble of different models makes a prediction, and the majority vote determines the final prediction. The various architectures such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception efficiently classify the dataset RSI-CB256, which contains satellite images into cloudy and non-cloudy. The generated ensembled S-E model (Sar-ensembled model) provides an accuracy of 99.25%.

Keywords: climate, satellite images, prediction, classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Nien-Ming Hong, Kuei-Fang Huang

Abstract:

Climate change is an important issue in future, which seriously affects water resources for a long term planning and management. Flood assessment is highly related with climate and land use. Increasing rainfall and urbanization will induce the inundated area in future. For adapting the impacts of climate change, a land use planning is a good strategy for reducing flood damage. The study is to build a trade-off process with different land use types. The Ta-Liao watershed is the study area with three types of land uses that are build-up, farm and forest. The build-up area is concentrated in the downstream of the watershed. Different rainfall amounts are applied for assessing the land use in 1996, 2005 and 2013. The adapted strategies are based on retarding the development of urban and a trade-off process. When a land changes from farm area to built-up area in downstream, this study is to search for a farm area and change it to forest/grass area or building a retention area in the upstream. For assessing the effects of the strategy, the inundation area is simulated by the Flo-2D model with different rainfall conditions and land uses. The results show inundation maps of several cases with land use change planning. The results also show the trade-off strategies and retention areas can decrease the inundated area and divide the inundated area, which are better than retarding urban development. The land use change is usually non-reverse and the planning should be constructed before the climate change.

Keywords: climate change, land use change, flood risk assessment, land use planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 313

Authors: Ogunrinde Roseline Bosede, Ogunrinde Rowland Rotimi

Abstract:

Just as the development of ideas of early mathematics was essentially motivated by social needs, the invention of the computer was equally inspired by social needs. The early years of the twenty-first century have been remarkable in advances in mathematical and computer sciences. Mathematical and computer sciences work are fast becoming an increasingly integral and essential components of a growing catalogues of areas of interests in biology, business, military, medicine, social sciences, advanced design, advanced materials, climate, banking and finance, and many other fields of disciplines. This paper seeks to highlight the trend and impacts of the duo in the technological advancements being witnessed in our today's world.

Keywords: computer, impacts, mathematics, modern society

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Michelle Zeyuan Ma, Hermann Heilmeier

Abstract:

Recently, meat production ecosystem impacts initiated many hot discussions and researchers, and it is a difficult implementation to reduce such impacts due to the demand of meat products. It calls for better management and control of ecosystem impacts from every aspects of meat production. This article analyzes the ecosystem impacts of meat production based on meat products life cycle. The analysis shows that considerable ecosystem impacts are caused by different meat production steps: initial establishment phase, animal raising, slaughterhouse processing, meat consumption, and wastes management. Based on this analysis, the impacts are summarized as: leading factor for biodiversity loss; water waste, land use waste and land degradation; greenhouse gases emissions; pollution to air, water, and soil; related major diseases. The article also provides a discussion on a solution-sustainable food system, which could help in reducing ecosystem impacts. The analysis method is based on the life cycle level, it provides a concept of the whole meat industry ecosystem impacts, and the analysis result could be useful to manage or control meat production ecosystem impacts from investor, producer and consumer sides.

Keywords: eutrophication, life cycle based analysis, sustainable food, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: W. A. D. P. Wanigasundera, P. C. B. Alahakoon

Abstract:

Kandy district in Sri Lanka has small scale and rain-fed paddy farming, and highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, the status of climate change was assessed using meteorological data and compared with the perceptions of paddy farming community. Factors affecting the adaptation to the climate smart farming were also assessed. Meteorological data for 33 years were collected and the changes over time compared with the perceptions of farmers. The temperature, rainfall and number of rainy days have increased in both locations. The onset of rains also has shifted. The perceptions of the majority of the farmers were in line with the actual changes. The knowledge and attitudes about the causes of climate change and adaptation were medium and related to level of adoption. Formulating effective communication strategies, and a collaborative approach involving state, private sector, civil society to make Sri Lankan agriculture ‘climate-smart’ is urgently needed.

Keywords: adaptation of climate-smart technology, climate change, perception, rain-fed paddy

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Orkan Ozcan, Nebiye Musaoglu, Murat Turkes

Abstract:

Climate change is largely recognized as one of the real, pressing and significant global problems. The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, physiographical and ecological systems. In this study, multifactorial spatial modeling was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change. As a result, the geographical distribution of the final Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem is based on the estimated final Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. This revealed that at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a ‘very low’ vulnerability degree covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and the agricultural lands found mainly over the low and flat travertine plateau and the plains at the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs over the forest ecosystem under the current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as ‘very low’ account for 21% of the total area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as ‘low’ account for 36%, those classed as ‘medium’ account for 20%, and those classed as ‘high’ account for 24%. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected future climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become a semiarid climate in the period between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in the study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, which is characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and the maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.

Keywords: forest ecosystem, Mediterranean climate, RCP scenarios, vulnerability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Israel Ropo Orimoloye, Johanes A. Belle, Olusola Adeyemi, Olusola O. Ololade

Abstract:

With more than 100,000 orbits during the past 20 years, Terra has significantly improved our knowledge of the Earth's climate and its implications on societies and ecosystems of human activity and natural disasters, including drought events. With Terra instrument's performance and the free distribution of its products, this study utilised Terra MOD13Q1 satellite data to assess drought disaster events and its spatiotemporal patterns over the Free State Province of South Africa between 2001 and 2019 for summer, autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The study also used high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCP). Three future periods comprising the short (the 2030s), medium (2040s), and long term (2050s) compared to the current period are analysed to understand the potential magnitude of projected climate change-related drought. The study revealed that the year 2001 and 2016 witnessed extreme drought conditions where the drought index is between 0 and 20% across the entire province during summer, while the year 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2015 observed severe drought conditions across the region with variation from one part to the another. The result shows that from -24.5 to -25.5 latitude, the area witnessed a decrease in precipitation (80 to 120mm) across the time slice and an increase in the latitude -26° to -28° S for summer seasons, which is more prominent in the year 2041 to 2050. This study emphasizes the strong spatio-environmental impacts within the province and highlights the associated factors that characterise high drought stress risk, especially on the environment and ecosystems. This study contributes to a disaster risk framework to identify areas for specific research and adaptation activities on drought disaster risk and for environmental planning in the study area, which is characterised by both rural and urban contexts, to address climate change-related drought impacts.

Keywords: remote sensing, drought disaster, climate scenario, assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Paschal Arsein Mugabe

Abstract:

This paper examines sustainable development planning in the context of environmental concerns in rural areas of the Tanzania. It challenges mainstream approaches to development, focusing instead upon transformative action for environmental justice. The goal is to help shape future sustainable development agendas in local government, international agencies and civil society organisations. Research methods: The approach of the study is geographical, but also involves various Trans-disciplinary elements, particularly from development studies, sociology and anthropology, management, geography, agriculture and environmental science. The research methods included thematic and questionnaire interviews, participatory tools such as focus group discussion, participatory research appraisal and expert interviews for primary data. Secondary data were gathered through the analysis of land use/cover data and official documents on climate, agriculture, marketing and health. Also several earlier studies that were made in the area provided an important reference base. Findings: The findings show that, agricultural sustainability in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by district and by income category. Also food security cannot be explained by climate as the only influencing factor. A combination of economic, political and socio-cultural context of the community are crucial. Conclusively, it is worthy knowing that people understand their relationship between climate change and their livelihood.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, environment, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Szu-Hua Wang

Abstract:

Urban ecosystems, as complex coupled human-environment systems, contain abundant natural resources for breeding natural assets and, at the same time, attract urban assets and consume natural resources, triggered by urban development. Land use change illustrates the interaction between human activities and environments factually. However, IPCC (2014) announces that land use change and urbanization due to human activities are the major cause of climate change, leading to serious impacts on urban ecosystem resilience and risk. For this reason, risk assessment and resilience analysis are the keys for responding to climate change on urban ecosystems. Urban spatial planning can guide urban development by land use planning, transportation planning, and environmental planning and affect land use allocation and human activities by building major constructions and protecting important national land resources simultaneously. Urban spatial planning can aggravate climate change and, on the other hand, mitigate and adapt climate change. Research on effects of spatial planning on land use change and climate change is one of intense issues currently. Therefore, this research focuses on developing frameworks for risk assessment and resilience analysis from the aspect of ecosystem based on typhoon precipitation in Taipei area. The integrated method of risk assessment and resilience analysis will be also addressed for applying spatial planning practice and sustainable development.

Keywords: ecosystem, land use change, risk analysis, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Bright Annang Baah

Abstract:

Evaluating public perceptions of climate change risk and the elements that impact them has been shown to be critical in developing support for climate change action. Previous research has found a variety of elements, including the experience of extreme weather events, that impact public perceptions and worries about climate change. However, little is known about the public's perception of climate change risks and the variables that influence them in developing countries. Using a household survey, this study attempted to evaluate respondents' risk perceptions of climate change, as well as the impact of flooding experience on such beliefs. The findings demonstrate that flood victims have a greater risk perception and are more concerned about climate change than non-victims. Concerns regarding the effects of climate change, on the other hand, were found to be the lowest when compared to other pressing challenges confronting the country. This study's findings contribute to the understanding of climate change risk perception and the impact of extreme weather events from the perspective of a developing nation.

Keywords: climate change risk perception, harsh weather, perceived concern, Accra, Ghana

Procedia PDF Downloads 15

Authors: Jamal A. Radaideh, A. J. Radaideh

Abstract:

Being a problem threatening the planet and its ecosystems, the climate change has been considered for a long time as a disturbing topic impacting water resources in Jordan. Jordan is expected for instance to be highly vulnerable to climate change consequences given its unbalanced distribution between water resources availability and existing demands. Thus, action on adaptation to climate impacts is urgently needed to cope with the negative consequences of climate change. Adaptation to global change must include prudent management of treated wastewater as a renewable resource, especially in regions lacking groundwater or where groundwater is already over exploited. This paper highlights the expected negative effects of climate change on the already scarce water sources and to motivate researchers and decision makers to take precautionary measures and find alternatives to keep the level of water supplies at the limits required for different consumption sectors in terms of quantity and quality. The paper will focus on assessing the potential for wastewater recycling as an adaptation measure to cope with water scarcity in Jordan and to consider wastewater as integral part of the national water budget to solve environmental problems. The paper also identified a research topic designed to help the nation progress in making the most appropriate use of the resource, namely for agricultural irrigation. Wastewater is a promising alternative to fill the shortage in water resources, especially due to climate changes, and to preserve the valuable fresh water to give priority to securing drinking water for the population from these resources and at the same time raise the efficiency of the use of available resources. Jordan has more than 36 wastewater treatment plants distributed throughout the country and producing about 386,000 CM/day of reclaimed water. According to the reports of water quality control programs, more than 85 percent of this water is of a quality that is completely identical to the quality suitable for irrigation of field crops and forest trees according to the requirements of Jordanian Standard No. 893/2006.

Keywords: climate change effects on water resources, adaptation on climate change, treated wastewater recycling, arid and semi-arid regions, Jordan

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Bobuchi Ken-Opurum

Abstract:

The impacts of climate change on urban settlements is growing. In the global south, communities are even more vulnerable and suffer there is an increased vulnerability from due to climate change disasters such as flooding and high temperatures. This is primarily due to high intensity rainfall, low-lying coasts, inadequate infrastructure, and limited resources. According to the Emergency Events Database, floods were the leading cause of disaster -based deaths in the global south between 2006 and 2015. This includes deaths from heat stress related health outcomes. Adapting to climate vulnerabilities is paramount in reducing the significant redevelopment costs from climate disasters. Governments and urban planners provide top-down approaches such as evacuation, and disaster and emergency communication. While they address infrastructure and public services, they are not always able to address the immediate and critical day to day needs of poor and vulnerable populations. There is growing evidence that some bottom-up strategies and grassroots initiatives of self-build housing such as in urban informal settlements are successful in coping and adapting to hydroclimatic impacts. However, these research findings are not consolidated and the evaluation of the resilience outcomes of the bottom-up strategies are limited. Using self-build housing as a model for sustainable and resilient urban planning, this research aimed to consolidate the flood and heat stress resilient design solutions, analyze the effectiveness of these solutions, and develop guidelines and methods for adopting these design solutions into mainstream housing in megathermal climates. The methodological approach comprised of analyses of over 40 ethnographic based peer reviewed literature, white papers, and reports between the years 2000 and 2019 to identify coping strategies and grassroots initiatives that have been applied by occupants and communities of the global south. The results of the research provide a consolidated source and prioritized list of the best bottom-up strategies for communities in megathermal climates to improve the lives of people in some of the most vulnerable places in the world.

Keywords: resilient, design, megathermal, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Benjamin Anabaraonye

Abstract:

Our environment is our entitlement, and it is our duty to guard it for the safety of our society. It is, therefore, in our best interest to explore the necessary tools required to tackle the issues of environmental pollution which are major causes of climate change. Poetry has been discovered through our study as a valuable tool for tackling climate change and environmental pollution. This study explores the science of poetry and how important it is for scientists and engineers to develop their creativity to obtain relevant skills needed to tackle these global challenges. Poetry has been discovered as a great tool for climate change education which in turn brings about climate change adaptation and mitigation. This paper is, therefore, a clarion and urgent call for us to rise to our responsibility for a sustainable future.

Keywords: climate change, education, environment, poetry

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Artem Sedov, Aigerim Uyzbayeva, Valeriya Tyo

Abstract:

The presented article is showing results of dynamic modeling with Mathlab software of optimal automatic room climate control system for two experimental houses in Astana, one of which has circle plan and the other one has square plan. These results are showing that building geometry doesn't influence on climate system PID-controls configuring. This confirms theoretical implication that optimal automatic climate control system parameters configuring should depend on building's internal space volume, envelope heat transfer, number of people inside, supply ventilation air flow and outdoor temperature.

Keywords: climate control system, climate physics, dome-like building, mathematical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Zahra Ali Abbasi, Syed Muhammad Saqib Saleem

Abstract:

This research explores the relationship between social media and awareness about climate change amongst the university students of Lahore, Pakistan. The aim is to understand how the people of Pakistan perceive climate change, especially on the social media. A deductive and quantitative method is applied on the research to find out the awareness of climate change in the people using social media. For this purpose, a survey method is used, to analyze the response from 167 online respondents through stratified random sampling technique. The relation between multiple variables including awareness about important climatic events like Paris agreement, GreenTube, Smog in Lahore, Floods in Pakistan and other eminent incidents of climate change and social media are calculated by analyzing social media as a source to impart information about climate change. The results show that as people get aware of climate change, they post about different national and international events/incidents of climate which reveal a significant relationship between respondents' awareness about climate change and their posting and sharing of content about climate change. Another test indicates that respondents’ post/share/comment (impart) information about climate change when there is a shift in the climate both globally and nationally. However, the significance of both these correlations has been found to be negligible. Social media being an independent platform holds greater influencing power, hence, as consumers of the environment the users hold the responsibility of producing and sharing content at a global platform about climate. However, matters of politics, economy and religion seem to have overshadowed the significance of climate.

Keywords: climate change, diffusion of innovation, environment, social media, Pakistan

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

Abstract:

In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%), isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%), and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7%) would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.5% (19318.7 sq. km) of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km) of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Finally, the results signify that the model might be an effective tool for biodiversity protection, ecosystem management, and species re-habitation planning under future climate change scenarios.

Keywords: Garcinia Indica, maximum entropy modelling, climate change, MaxEnt, Western Ghats, medicinal plants

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Nguyen-Thanh Son

Abstract:

Flood is among the most frequent and costliest natural hazards. The flood disasters especially affect the poor people in rural areas, who are heavily dependent on agriculture and have lower incomes. Cambodia is identified as one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, ranked 13th out of 181 countries most affected by the impacts of climate change. Flood monitoring is thus a strategic priority at national and regional levels because policymakers need reliable spatial and temporal information on flood-prone areas to form successful monitoring programs to reduce possible impacts on the country’s economy and people’s likelihood. This study aims to develop methods for flood mapping and assessment from MODIS data in Cambodia. We processed the data for the period from 2000 to 2017, following three main steps: (1) data pre-processing to construct smooth time-series vegetation and water surface indices, (2) delineation of flood-prone areas, and (3) accuracy assessment. The results of flood mapping were verified with the ground reference data, indicating the overall accuracy of 88.7% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.77, respectively. These results were reaffirmed by close agreement between the flood-mapping area and ground reference data, with the correlation coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.94. The seasonally flooded areas observed for 2010, 2015, and 2016 were remarkably smaller than other years, mainly attributed to the El Niño weather phenomenon exacerbated by impacts of climate change. Eventually, although several sources potentially lowered the mapping accuracy of flood-prone areas, including image cloud contamination, mixed-pixel issues, and low-resolution bias between the mapping results and ground reference data, our methods indicated the satisfactory results for delineating spatiotemporal evolutions of floods. The results in the form of quantitative information on spatiotemporal flood distributions could be beneficial to policymakers in evaluating their management strategies for mitigating the negative effects of floods on agriculture and people’s likelihood in the country.

Keywords: MODIS, flood, mapping, Cambodia

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: André Rafael Ferreira, Laurentina Vareiro, Raquel Mendes

Abstract:

This study’s main objective is to explore residents’ perceptions of film-induced tourism and the impacts of filmmaking on the development of a destination. Specifically, the research examines resident´s perceptions of the social, economic, and environmental impacts on a Portuguese municipality (Arcos de Valdevez) given its feature in a popular Portuguese television series. Data is collected by means of an Internet survey, in which resident´s perceptions of the impacts of filmmaking are solicited. Residents generally agree that the recording and exhibition of the television series is important to the municipality, and contributes to the increased number of tourists. Given that residents consider that the positive impacts are more significant than the negative impacts, they supported the recording of another television series in the same municipality. Considering that destination managers and tourism development authorities aim to plan for optimal tourism development, and at the same time wish to minimize the negative impacts of this development on the local communities, monitoring residents’ opinions of perceived impacts is a good way of incorporating their reaction into tourism planning and development. The results of this research may provide useful information in this sense.

Keywords: film-induced tourism, residents’ perceptions, tourism development, tourism impacts

Procedia PDF Downloads 432

Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

Abstract:

Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Zeleke Ayalew Alemu

Abstract:

Indian Ocean and the Nile River play significant roles in shaping the hydrological and ecological systems of the regions they traverse. This study explores the interlinkages and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile River, highlighting key factors such as water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity. The Indian Ocean serves as a major source of moisture for the Nile River, contributing to its annual flood cycle and sustaining the river's ecosystem. The Indian Ocean's monsoon winds influence the amount of rainfall received in East Africa, which directly impacts the Nile's water levels. These monsoonal patterns create a vital connection between the Indian Ocean and the Nile, affecting agricultural productivity, freshwater availability, and overall river health. The Indian Ocean also influences the nutrient levels in the Nile River. Coastal upwelling driven by oceanic currents brings nutrient-rich waters from the depths of the ocean to the surface. These nutrients are transported by ocean currents towards the Red Sea and subsequently enter the Nile. This influx of nutrients supports the growth of plankton, which forms the basis of the river's food web and sustains various aquatic species. Additionally, the Indian Ocean's climate patterns, such as El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole events, exert influence on the Nile River basin. El Niño, for example, can result in drought conditions, reduced precipitation, and altered river flows, impacting agricultural activities and water resource management along the Nile. The Indian Ocean Dipole events can influence the rainfall distribution in East Africa, further impacting the Nile's water levels and ecosystem dynamics. The Indian Ocean's biodiversity is interconnected with the Nile River's ecological system. Many species that inhabit the Indian Ocean, such as migratory birds and marine mammals, migrate along the Nile River basin, utilizing its resources for feeding and breeding purposes. The health of the Indian Ocean's ecosystem thus indirectly affects the biodiversity and ecological balance of the Nile River. Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of the Nile River. Its influence on water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity highlights the complex interdependencies between these two important water bodies. Understanding the interconnectedness and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile is essential for effective water resource management and conservation efforts in the region.

Keywords: water, management, environment, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

Abstract:

Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Jan Schmitt, Sophie Fischer

Abstract:

After the Corona pandemic, climate change is a further, long-lasting challenge the society must deal with. An ongoing climate change need to be prevented. Nevertheless, the adoption tothe already changed climate conditionshas to be focused in many sectors. Recently, the decisive role of the economic sector with high value added can be seen in the Corona crisis. Hence, manufacturing industry as such a sector, needs to be prepared for climate change and adaption. Several examples from the manufacturing industry show the importance of a strategic effort in this field: The outsourcing of a major parts of the value chain to suppliers in other countries and optimizing procurement logistics in a time-, storage- and cost-efficient manner within a network of global value creation, can lead vulnerable impacts due to climate-related disruptions. E.g. the total damage costs after the 2011 flood disaster in Thailand, including costs for delivery failures, were estimated at 45 billion US dollars worldwide. German car manufacturers were also affected by supply bottlenecks andhave close its plant in Thailand for a short time. Another OEM must reduce the production output. In this contribution, a game-based learning approach is presented, which should enable manufacturing companies to derive their own strategies for climate adaption out of a mix of different actions. Based on data from a regional study of small, medium and large manufacturing companies in Mainfranken, a strongly industrialized region of northern Bavaria (Germany) the game-based learning approach is designed. Out of this, the actual state of efforts due to climate adaption is evaluated. First, the results are used to collect single actions for manufacturing companies and second, further actions can be identified. Then, a variety of climate adaption activities can be clustered according to the scope of activity of the company. The combination of different actions e.g. the renewal of the building envelope with regard to thermal insulation, its benefits and drawbacks leads to a specific strategy for climate adaption for each company. Within the game-based approach, the players take on different roles in a fictionalcompany and discuss the order and the characteristics of each action taken into their climate adaption strategy. Different indicators such as economic, ecologic and stakeholder satisfaction compare the success of the respective measures in a competitive format with other virtual companies deriving their own strategy. A "play through" climate change scenarios with targeted adaptation actions illustrate the impact of different actions and their combination onthefictional company.

Keywords: business strategy, climate change, climate adaption, game-based learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Elena Cangelosi, Wayne Beyea

Abstract:

This research expands the resilience planning literature by exploring the barriers and enablers to climate and health adaptation planning for small urban, coastal Great Lakes communities. With funding from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Climate Ready City and States Initiative, this research took place during a 3-year pilot intervention project which integrates urban planning and public health. The project used the CDC’s Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework to prevent or reduce the human health impacts from climate change in Marquette County, Michigan. Using a deliberation with the analysis planning process, interviews, focus groups, and community meetings with over 25 stakeholder groups and over 100 participants identified the area’s climate-related health concerns and adaptation interventions to address those concerns. Marquette County, on the shores of Lake Superior, the largest of the Great Lakes, was selected for the project based on their existing adaptive capacity and proactive approach to climate adaptation planning. With Marquette County as the context, this study fills a gap in the adaptation literature, which currently heavily emphasizes large-urban or agriculturally-based rural areas, and largely neglects small urban areas. This research builds on the qualitative case-study, survey, and interview approach established by previous researchers on contextual barriers and enablers for adaptation planning. This research uses a case study approach, including surveys and interviews of public officials, to identify the barriers and enablers for climate and health adaptation planning for small-urban areas within a large, non-agricultural, Great Lakes county. The researchers hypothesize that the barriers and enablers will, in some cases, overlap those found in other contexts, but in many cases, will be unique to a rural setting. The study reveals that funding, staff capacity, and communication across a large, rural geography act as the main barriers, while strong networks and collaboration, interested leaders, and community interest through a strong human-land connection act as the primary enablers. Challenges unique to rural areas are revealed, including weak opportunities for grant funding, large geographical distances, communication challenges with an aging and remote population, and the out-migration of education residents. Enablers that may be unique to rural contexts include strong collaborative relationships across jurisdictions for regional work and strong connections between residents and the land. As the factors that enable and prevent climate change planning are highly contextual, understanding, and appropriately addressing the unique factors at play for small-urban communities is key for effective planning in those areas. By identifying and addressing the barriers and enablers to climate and health adaptation planning for small-urban, coastal areas, this study can help Great Lakes communities appropriately build resilience to the adverse impacts of climate change. In addition, this research expands the breadth of research and understanding of the challenges and opportunities planners confront in the face of climate change.

Keywords: climate adaptation and resilience, climate change adaptation, climate change and urban resilience, governance and urban resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Zuliziana Suif, Nordila Ahmad, Sengheng Hul

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on suspended sediment changes in the Mekong River Basin. In this study, the distributed process-based sediment transport model is used to examine the potential impact of future climate on suspended sediment dynamic changes in the Mekong River Basin. To this end, climate scenarios from two General Circulation Model (GCMs) were considered in the scenario analysis. The simulation results show that the sediment load and concentration shows 0.64% to 69% increase in the near future (2041-2050) and 2.5% to 95% in the far future (2090- 2099). As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in sediment management. Overall, the changes in sediment load and concentration can have a great implication for related sediment management.

Keywords: climate change, suspended sediment, Mekong River Basin, GCMs

Procedia PDF Downloads 413

Authors: Vajiheh Javani

Abstract:

Hosting sport event result in both economic and socio-psychological impacts on host communities. Economic impacts, which are considered by many scholars and the social impacts of tourism based on hosting sports events have also been somehow investigated. But, investigating perceived social impacts based on host community perceptions has been paid not with little attention enough. Therefore, this study aims to study the beneficiary social impact of hosting sport event from residents’ perceptions. The participations for this research were 50 residents of Tabriz city who were recruited by judgment sampling method. focused group interviews were used for gathering the data. Then thematic analysis was utilized for interview analysis. Extracted perceived beneficiary social impacts include (1) economic benefits; (2) community pride; (3) community development. This study highlighted the perceived social beneficiary impacts and could contribute to a better understanding of how local residents of the studied community view the impacts associated with a sport event.

Keywords: socio-psychological impacts, sport event, community development, hosting

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Farah Islam, Md. Monirul Islam, Mosammat Salma Akter, Goutam Kumar Kundu

Abstract:

The continuous variability of climate and the risk associated with it have a significant impact on the fisheries leading to a global concern for about half a billion fishery-based livelihoods. Though in the context of Bangladesh mounting evidence on the impacts of climate change on fishery-based livelihoods or their socioeconomic conditions are present, the country’s inland fisheries sector remains in a negligible corner as compared to the coastal areas which are spotted on the highlight due to its higher vulnerability to climatic hazards. The available research on inland fisheries, particularly river fisheries, has focussed mainly on fish production, pollution, fishing gear, fish biodiversity and livelihoods of the fishers. This study assesses the impacts of climate variability and changes on the Jamuna (a transboundary river called Brahmaputra in India) River fishing communities and their coping and adaptation strategies. This study has used primary data collected from Kalitola Ghat and Debdanga fishing communities of the Jamuna River during May, August and December 2015 using semi-structured interviews, oral history interviews, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and impact matrix as well as secondary data. This study has found that both communities are exposed to storms, floods and land erosions which impact on fishery-based livelihood assets, strategies, and outcomes. The impact matrix shows that human and physical capitals are more affected by climate hazards which in turn affect financial capital. Both communities have been responding to these exposures through multiple coping and adaptation strategies. The coping strategies include making dam with soil, putting jute sac on the yard, taking shelter on boat or embankment, making raised platform or ‘Kheua’ and involving with temporary jobs. While, adaptation strategies include permanent migration, change of livelihood activities and strategies, changing fishing practices and making robust houses. The study shows that migration is the most common adaptation strategy for the fishers which resulted in mostly positive outcomes for the migrants. However, this migration has impacted negatively on the livelihoods of existing fishers in the communities. In sum, the Jamuna river fishing communities have been impacted by several climatic hazards and they have traditionally coped with or adapted to the impacts which are not sufficient to maintain sustainable livelihoods and fisheries. In coming decades, this situation may become worse as predicted by latest scientific research and an enhanced level of response would be needed.

Keywords: climatic hazards, impacts and adaptation, fisherfolk, the Jamuna River

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Jane O. Munonye

Abstract:

Climate change has both negative and positive effects in agricultural production. For agriculture to be sustainable in adverse climate change condition, some natural measures are needed. The issue is to produce more food with available natural resources and reduce the contribution of agriculture to climate change. The study reviewed climate change and sustainable agriculture in southeast Nigeria. Data from the study were from secondary sources. Ten scientific papers were consulted and data for the review were collected from three. The objectives of the paper were as follows: to review the effect of climate change on one major arable crop in southeast Nigeria (yam; Dioscorea rotundata); evident of climate change impact and methods for sustainable agricultural production in adverse weather condition. Some climatic parameter as sunshine, relative humidity and rainfall have negative relationship with yam production and significant at 10% probability. Crop production was predicted to decline by 25% per hectare by 2060 while livestock production has increased the incidence of diseases and pathogens as the major effect to agriculture. Methods for sustainable agriculture and damage of natural resources by climate change were highlighted. Agriculture needs to be transformed as climate changes to enable the sector to be sustainable. There should be a policy in place to facilitate the integration of sustainability in Nigeria agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, sustainability, yam

Procedia PDF Downloads 299