Search results for: conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model

Authors: Nizar Ghali, Bernard Fortin, Guy Lacroix

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In Quebec, colonoscopies volumes have continued to rise in recent years in the absence of effective monitoring mechanism for the appropriateness and the quality of these exams. In 2010, November, Quebec Government introduced the colorectal cancer-screening program in the objective to control for volume and cost imperfection. This program is based on clinical standards and was initiated for first group of institutions. One year later, Government adds financial incentives for participants institutions. In this analysis, we want to assess for the causal effect of the two components of this program: clinical pathways and financial incentives. Especially we assess for the reform effect on healthcare quality and population health in the context that medical remuneration is not directly dependent on this additional funding offered by the program. We have data on admissions episodes and deaths for 8 years. We use multistate model analog to difference in difference approach to estimate reform effect on the transition probability between different states for each patient. Our results show that the reform reduced length of stay without deterioration in hospital mortality or readmission rate. In the other hand, the program contributed to decrease the hospitalization rate and a less invasive treatment approach for colorectal surgeries. This is a sign of healthcare quality and population health improvement. We demonstrate in this analysis that physicians’ behavior can be affected by both clinical standards and financial incentives even if offered to facilities.

Keywords: multi-state and multi-episode transition model, healthcare quality, length of stay, transition probability, difference in difference

Procedia PDF Downloads 214

Authors: Muhammmad Riandhy Anindika Yudhy, Harry Patria, Ramadhani Santoso

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Loss of containment is the primary hazard that process safety management is concerned within the oil and gas industry. Escalation to more serious consequences all begins with the loss of containment, starting with oil and gas release from leakage or spillage from primary containment resulting in pool fire, jet fire and even explosion when reacted with various ignition sources in the operations. Therefore, the heart of process safety management is avoiding loss of containment and mitigating its impact through the implementation of safeguards. The most effective safeguard for the case is an early detection system to alert Operations to take action prior to a potential case of loss of containment. The detection system value increases when applied to a long surface pipeline that is naturally difficult to monitor at all times and is exposed to multiple causes of loss of containment, from natural corrosion to illegal tapping. Based on prior researches and studies, detecting loss of containment accurately in the surface pipeline is difficult. The trade-off between cost-effectiveness and high accuracy has been the main issue when selecting the traditional detection method. The current best-performing method, Real-Time Transient Model (RTTM), requires analysis of closely positioned pressure, flow and temperature (PVT) points in the pipeline to be accurate. Having multiple adjacent PVT sensors along the pipeline is expensive, hence generally not a viable alternative from an economic standpoint.A conceptual approach to combine mathematical modeling using computational fluid dynamics and a supervised machine learning model has shown promising results to predict leakage in the pipeline. Mathematical modeling is used to generate simulation data where this data is used to train the leak detection and localization models. Mathematical models and simulation software have also been shown to provide comparable results with experimental data with very high levels of accuracy. While the supervised machine learning model requires a large training dataset for the development of accurate models, mathematical modeling has been shown to be able to generate the required datasets to justify the application of data analytics for the development of model-based leak detection systems for petroleum pipelines. This paper presents a review of key leak detection strategies for oil and gas pipelines, with a specific focus on crude oil applications, and presents the opportunities for the use of data analytics tools and mathematical modeling for the development of robust real-time leak detection and localization system for surface pipelines. A case study is also presented.

Keywords: pipeline, leakage, detection, AI

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Shuang Chen, Zongqian Shi, Jiajia Sun, Mingjia Li

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Microfluidics is a technology that small amounts of fluids are manipulated using channels with dimensions of tens to hundreds of micrometers. At present, this significant technology is required for several applications in some fields, including disease diagnostics, genetic engineering, and environmental monitoring, etc. Among these fields, manipulation of microparticles and cells in microfluidic device, especially separation, have aroused general concern. In magnetic field, the separation methods include positive and negative magnetophoresis. By comparison, negative magnetophoresis is a label-free technology. It has many advantages, e.g., easy operation, low cost, and simple design. Before the separation of particles or cells, focusing them into a single tight stream is usually a necessary upstream operation. In this work, the focusing of diamagnetic particles in ferrofluid microflows with a single set of overhead permanent magnets is investigated numerically. The geometric model of the simulation is based on the configuration of previous experiments. The straight microchannel is 24mm long and has a rectangular cross-section of 100μm in width and 50μm in depth. The spherical diamagnetic particles of 10μm in diameter are suspended into ferrofluid. The initial concentration of the ferrofluid c₀ is 0.096%, and the flow rate of the ferrofluid is 1.8mL/h. The magnetic field is induced by five identical rectangular neodymium−iron− boron permanent magnets (1/8 × 1/8 × 1/8 in.), and it is calculated by equivalent charge source (ECS) method. The flow of the ferrofluid is governed by the Navier–Stokes equations. The trajectories of particles are solved by the discrete phase model (DPM) in the ANSYS FLUENT program. The positions of diamagnetic particles are recorded by transient simulation. Compared with the results of the mentioned experiments, our simulation shows consistent results that diamagnetic particles are gradually focused in ferrofluid under magnetic field. Besides, the diamagnetic particle focusing is studied by varying the flow rate of the ferrofluid. It is in agreement with the experiment that the diamagnetic particle focusing is better with the increase of the flow rate. Furthermore, it is investigated that the diamagnetic particle focusing is affected by other factors, e.g., the width and depth of the microchannel, the concentration of the ferrofluid and the diameter of diamagnetic particles.

Keywords: diamagnetic particle, focusing, microfluidics, permanent magnet

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Chang-Bin Ha, Yong-Jun Kim, Dong-Hyun Ha, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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The conventional Wi-Fi back scatter system can only process one-to-one communication between the Wi-Fi reader and the Wi-Fi tag. For improvement of throughput of the conventional system, this paper proposes the multi-to-multi communication system. In the proposed system, the interference by the multi-to-multi communication is effectively cancelled by the orthogonal multiple access based on the identification code of the tag. Although the overhead is generated by the procedure for the multi-to-multi communication, because the procedure is processed by the Wi-Fi protocol, the overhead is insignificant for the entire communication procedure. From the numerical results, it is confirmed that the proposed system has nearly proportional increased throughput in according to the number of the tag that simultaneously participates in communication.

Keywords: backscatter, multi-to-multi communication, orthogonality, Wi-Fi

Procedia PDF Downloads 510

Authors: Shyam lamsal

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Introduction: Karnali Academy of Health Sciences (KAHS) has been established in 2011, by an Act of parliament of Nepal, in Jumla, to provide health services in easy way in backward areas, to produce skilled health professionals & conduct research. The backward areas mentioned in act of KAHS are Humla, Jumla, Kalikot, Dolpa, Mugu districts of Karnali zone, Jajarkot district of Bheri zone & Bajura, Baghang & Achham districts of Seti zone in Nepal occupying around 25 % of the total national geography. Backward area of Nepal is specific to having worst health indicators with life expectancy (47 years), HDI (0.35), Literacy rate (58%), global acute malnutrition (13%), crude birth rate (33.6), crude death rate (9.6), Total fertility rate (4.2), infant mortality rate (61.5 per 1000 live births), under five mortality rate (59 per 1000 live births) and maternal mortality ratio (400 per 1000 live births). History of health facilities in backward region: All the nine districts of this region have a district hospital with very few grass root level health manpower. Government of Nepal regularly deploys one or two medical officers to each district who generally are not regular to their care. Jumla district itself was having one medical officer before the establishment of KAHS. Development activities: Establishment of 100 bedded specialty teaching hospital with 10 medical officers and five specialists, accredited its own nursing school for running diploma nursing programme, started “Karnali health survey” which covers 55 thousand households of backward region, started community care and school health camps, planning phase completed for 300 bedded teaching hospital construction. Future Plan: Expansion of the teaching hospital to 300 beds within 3 years, start health assistant and bachelor midwifery course in 2015 AD, start bachelor in laboratory and bachelor in public health course in 2016 AD and start MBBS course in 2018 AD. Deploy the medical officers and family physicians to all the district hospitals within 3 years. KAHS provides reservation up to 45% students from backward region with the commitment to stay for at least five years of their service period. Conclusion: This institution may be the example for the rest of the world in providing nursing care, education in remote areas as well as the best model for nursing manpower retention in remote areas of developing countries.

Keywords: backward area, nursing school

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Om Prakash Bharti, Aanchal Verma, R. K. Saket

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The Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) is suggested for Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS) to extract wind power. DFIG is preferably employed due to its robustness towards variable wind and rotor speed. DFIG has the adaptable property because the system parameters are smoothly dealt with, including real power, reactive power, DC-link voltage, and the transient and dynamic responses, which are needed to analyze constantly. The analysis becomes more prominent during any unusual condition in the electrical power system. Hence, the study and improvement in the system parameters and transient response performance of DFIG are required to be accomplished using some controlling techniques. For fulfilling the task, the present work implements and compares the optimization methods for the design of the DFIG controller for WECS. The bio-inspired optimization techniques are applied to get the optimal controller design parameters for DFIG-based WECS. The optimized DFIG controllers are then used to retrieve the transient response performance of the six-order DFIG model with a step input. The results using MATLAB/Simulink show the betterment of the Firefly algorithm (FFA) over other control techniques when compared with the other controller design methods.

Keywords: doubly-fed induction generator, wind turbine, wind energy conversion system, induction generator, transfer function, proportional, integral, derivatives

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Authors: Theodore Grosch, Felipe Koji Godinho Hoshino

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In wireless communications, 3GPP LTE is one of the solutions to meet the greater transmission data rate demand. One issue inherent to this technology is the PAPR (Peak-to-Average Power Ratio) of OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing) modulation. This high PAPR affects the efficiency of power amplifiers. One approach to mitigate this effect is the Crest Factor Reduction (CFR) technique. In this work, we simulate the impact of Hard Limited Clipping Crest Factor Reduction technique on BER (Bit Error Rate) in OFDM based Systems. In general, the results showed that CFR has more effects on higher digital modulation schemes, as expected. More importantly, we show the worst-case degradation due to CFR on QPSK, 16QAM, and 64QAM signals in a linear system. For example, hard clipping of 9 dB results in a 2 dB increase in signal to noise energy at a 1% BER for 64-QAM modulation.

Keywords: bit error rate, crest factor reduction, OFDM, physical layer simulation

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Authors: Zsolt Szilvágyi, Jakub Panuska, Orsolya Kegyes-Brassai, Ákos Wolf, Péter Tildy, Richard P. Ray

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Near-surface loose sediments and local ground conditions in general have a major influence on seismic response of structures. It is a difficult task to model ground behavior in seismic soil-structure-foundation interaction problems, fully account for them in seismic design of structures, or even properly consider them in seismic hazard assessment. In this study, we focused on applying seismic soil investigation methods, used for determining soil stiffness and damping properties, to response analysis used in seismic design. A site in Budapest, Hungary was investigated using Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves, Seismic Cone Penetration Tests, Bender Elements, Resonant Column and Torsional Shear tests. Our aim was to compare the results of the different test methods and use the resulting soil properties for 1D ground response analysis. Often in practice, there are little-to no data available on dynamic soil properties and estimated parameters are used for design. Therefore, a comparison is made between results based on estimated parameters and those based on detailed investigations. Ground response results are also compared to Eurocode 8 design spectra.

Keywords: MASW, resonant column test, SCPT, site response analysis, torsional shear test

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

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This paper presents modeling of a Alternating Current (AC) Photovoltaic (PV) module using Matlab/Simulink. The proposed AC-PV module model is simple, realistic, and application oriented. The model is derived on module level as compared to cell level directly from the information provided by the manufacturer data sheet. DC-PV module, MPPT control, BC, VSI and LC filter, all were treated as a single unit. The model accounts for changes in variations of both irradiance and temperature. The AC-PV module proposed model is simulated and the results are compared with the datasheet projected numbers to validate model’s accuracy and effectiveness. Implementation and results demonstrate simplicity and accuracy, as well as reliability of the model.

Keywords: PV modeling, AC PV Module, datasheet, VI curves irradiance, temperature, MPPT, Matlab/Simulink

Procedia PDF Downloads 575

Authors: Ramiz M. Shubbar, Dong In Lee, Hatem A. Gzar, Arthur S. Rood

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Air pollution is one of the biggest environmental problems in Baghdad, Iraq. The Daura refinery located nearest the center of Baghdad, represents the largest industrial area, which transmits enormous amounts of pollutants, therefore study the gaseous pollutants and particulate matter are very important to the environment and the health of the workers in refinery and the people whom leaving in areas around the refinery. Actually, some studies investigated the studied area before, but it depended on the basic Gaussian equation in a simple computer programs, however, that kind of work at that time is very useful and important, but during the last two decades new largest production units were added to the Daura refinery such as, PU_3 (Power unit_3 (Boiler 11&12)), CDU_1 (Crude Distillation unit_70000 barrel_1), and CDU_2 (Crude Distillation unit_70000 barrel_2). Therefore, it is necessary to use new advanced model to study air pollution at the region for the new current years, and calculation the monthly emission rate of pollutants through actual amounts of fuel which consumed in production unit, this may be lead to accurate concentration values of pollutants and the behavior of dispersion or transport in study area. In this study to the best of author’s knowledge CALPUFF model was used and examined for first time in Iraq. CALPUFF is an advanced non-steady-state meteorological and air quality modeling system, was applied to investigate the pollutants concentration of SO2, NO2, CO, and PM1-10μm, at areas adjacent to Daura refinery which located in the center of Baghdad in Iraq. The CALPUFF modeling system includes three main components: CALMET is a diagnostic 3-dimensional meteorological model, CALPUFF (an air quality dispersion model), CALPOST is a post processing package, and an extensive set of preprocessing programs produced to interface the model to standard routinely available meteorological and geophysical datasets. The targets of this work are modeling and simulation the four pollutants (SO2, NO2, CO, and PM1-10μm) which emitted from Daura refinery within one year. Emission rates of these pollutants were calculated for twelve units includes thirty plants, and 35 stacks by using monthly average of the fuel amount consumption at this production units. Assess the performance of CALPUFF model in this study and detect if it is appropriate and get out predictions of good accuracy compared with available pollutants observation. CALPUFF model was investigated at three stability classes (stable, neutral, and unstable) to indicate the dispersion of the pollutants within deferent meteorological conditions. The simulation of the CALPUFF model showed the deferent kind of dispersion of these pollutants in this region depends on the stability conditions and the environment of the study area, monthly, and annual averages of pollutants were applied to view the dispersion of pollutants in the contour maps. High values of pollutants were noticed in this area, therefore this study recommends to more investigate and analyze of the pollutants, reducing the emission rate of pollutants by using modern techniques and natural gas, increasing the stack height of units, and increasing the exit gas velocity from stacks.

Keywords: CALPUFF, daura refinery, Iraq, pollutants

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Akshita Swaminathan, Vinayak Malhotra

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Smoldering is one of the most persistent types of combustion which can take place for very long periods (hours, days, months) if there is an abundance of fuel. It causes quite a notable number of accidents and is one of the prime suspects for fire and safety hazards. It can be ignited with weaker ignition and is more difficult to suppress than flaming combustion. Upward spread smoldering is the case in which the air flow is parallel to the direction of the smoldering front. This type of smoldering is quite uncontrollable, and hence, there is a need to study this phenomenon. As compared to flaming combustion, a smoldering phenomenon often goes unrecognised and hence is a cause for various fire accidents. A simplified experimental setup was raised to study the upward spread smoldering, its effects due to varying forced flow and its effects when it takes place in the presence of external heat sources and alternative energy sources such as acoustic energy. Linear configurations were studied depending on varying forced flow effects on upward spread smoldering. Effect of varying forced flow on upward spread smoldering was observed and studied: (i) in the presence of external heat source (ii) in the presence of external alternative energy sources (acoustic energy). The role of ash removal was observed and studied. Results indicate that upward spread forced smoldering was affected by various key controlling parameters such as the speed of the forced flow, surface orientation, interspace distance (distance between forced flow and the pilot fuel). When an external heat source was placed on either side of the pilot fuel, it was observed that the smoldering phenomenon was affected. The surface orientation and interspace distance between the external heat sources and the pilot fuel were found to play a huge role in altering the regression rate. Lastly, by impinging an alternative energy source in the form of acoustic energy on the smoldering front, it was observed that varying frequencies affected the smoldering phenomenon in different ways. The surface orientation also played an important role. This project highlights the importance of fire and safety hazard and means of better combustion for all kinds of scientific research and practical applications. The knowledge acquired from this work can be applied to various engineering systems ranging from aircrafts, spacecrafts and even to buildings fires, wildfires and help us in better understanding and hence avoiding such widespread fires. Various fire disasters have been recorded in aircrafts due to small electric short circuits which led to smoldering fires. These eventually caused the engine to catch fire that cost damage to life and property. Studying this phenomenon can help us to control, if not prevent, such disasters.

Keywords: alternative energy sources, flaming combustion, ignition, regression rate, smoldering

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Pham Van Nha, Le Cam Binh

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Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a population-based stochastic optimization algorithm. PSO was inspired by the natural behavior of birds and fish in migration and foraging for food. PSO is considered as a multidisciplinary optimization model that can be applied in various optimization problems. PSO’s ideas are simple and easy to understand but PSO is only applied in simple model problems. We think that in order to expand the applicability of PSO in complex problems, PSO should be described more explicitly in the form of a mathematical model. In this paper, we represent PSO in a mathematical model and apply in the multivariate data classification. First, PSOs general mathematical model (MPSO) is analyzed as a universal optimization model. Then, Model of Optimal Centroids (MOC) is proposed for the multivariate data classification. Experiments were conducted on some benchmark data sets to prove the effectiveness of MOC compared with several proposed schemes.

Keywords: analysis of optimization, artificial intelligence based optimization, optimization for learning and data analysis, global optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 209

Authors: Cóndor C. José, Rodrigues E. Camila, Noronha L. Irene, Dos Santos Fernando, Irigoyen M. Claudia, Andrade Lúcia

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Sepsis induces alterations in hemodynamics and autonomic nervous system (ASN). The autonomic activity can be calculated by measuring heart rate variability (HRV) that represents the complex interplay between ASN and cardiac pacemaker cells. Wharton’s jelly mesenchymal stem cells (WJ-MSCs) are known to express genes and secreted factors involved in neuroprotective and immunological effects, also to improve the survival in experimental septic animals. We hypothesized, that WJ-MSCs present an important role in the autonomic activity and in the hemodynamic effects in a cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) model of sepsis. Methods: We used flow cytometry to evaluate WJ-MSCs phenotypes. We divided Wistar rats into groups: sham (shamoperated); CLP; and CLP+MSC (106 WJ-MSCs, i.p., 6 h after CLP). At 24 h post-CLP, we recorded the systolic arterial pressure (SAP) and heart rate (HR) over 20 min. The spectral analysis of HR and SAP; also the spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity (measure by bradycardic and tachycardic responses) were evaluated after recording. The one-way ANOVA and the post hoc Student– Newman– Keuls tests (P< 0.05) were used to data comparison Results: WJ-MSCs were negative for CD3, CD34, CD45 and HLA-DR, whereas they were positive for CD73, CD90 and CD105. The CLP group showed a reduction in variance of overall variability and in high-frequency power of HR (heart parasympathetic activity); furthermore, there is a low-frequency reduction of SAP (blood vessels sympathetic activity). The treatment with WJ-MSCs improved the autonomic activity by increasing the high and lowfrequency power; and restore the baroreflex sensitive. Conclusions: WJ-MSCs attenuate the impairment of autonomic control of the heart and vessels and might therefore play a protective role in sepsis. (Supported by FAPESP).

Keywords: baroreflex response, heart rate variability, sepsis, wharton’s jelly-derived mesenchymal stem cells

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Afif Saleh Abugharsa

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The IEEE 802.15.4 standard is designed for low-rate wireless personal area networks (LR-WPAN) with focus on enabling wireless sensor networks. It aims to give a low data rate, low power consumption, and low cost wireless networking on the device-level communication. The objective of this study is to investigate the performance of IEEE 802.15.4 based networks using simulation tool. In this project the network simulator 2 NS2 was used to several performance measures of wireless sensor networks. Three scenarios were considered, multi hop network with a single coordinator, star topology, and an ad hoc on demand distance vector AODV. Results such as packet delivery ratio, hop delay, and number of collisions are obtained from these scenarios.

Keywords: ZigBee, wireless sensor networks, IEEE 802.15.4, low power, low data rate

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Authors: Catherine Maware, Olufemi Adetunji

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The paper is aimed at developing a model to measure the impact of Lean manufacturing deployment on organizational performance. The model will help industry practitioners to assess the impact of implementing Lean constructs on organizational performance. It will also harmonize the measurement models of Lean performance with the house of Lean that seems to have become the industry standard. The sheer number of measurement models for impact assessment of Lean implementation makes it difficult for new adopters to select an appropriate assessment model or deployment methodology. A literature review is conducted to classify the Lean performance model. Pareto analysis is used to select the Lean constructs for the development of the model. The model is further formalized through the use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) in defining the underlying latent structure of a Lean system. An impact assessment measurement model developed can be used to measure Lean performance and can be adopted by different industries.

Keywords: impact measurement model, lean bundles, lean manufacturing, organizational performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 486

Authors: Amir Abbas Kamanbedast, Masood Mohammad Shafipor, Amir Ghotboddin

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Fish way is a structure that in generally using to migrate to the place where they are spawned and is made near the spillway. Preventing fish spawning or migrating to their original place by fishway structures can affect their lives in the river or even erase one access to intended environment. The main objective of these structures is establishing a safe path for fish migration. In the present study first the hydraulic specifications of Hamidieh diversion dam were assessed and then it is problems were evaluated. In this study the dimensions of the fish way, including velocity of pools, were evaluated by CCHE2D software. Then by change slope in this structure streamlines like velocity in the pools were measured. For calibration can be use measuring local velocities in some pools. The information can be seen the fishway width of 0.3 m has minimum rate of descent in the total number of structures (pools and overflow).

Keywords: fishway, velocity, Hamidieh-Diversion Dam, CCHE2D model

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Authors: Iulia E. Falcan

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The transition of the European power sector towards a clean, renewable energy (RE) system faces the challenge of meeting power demand in times of low wind speed and low solar radiation, at a reasonable cost. This is likely to be achieved through a combination of 1) energy storage technologies, 2) development of the cross-border power grid, 3) installed overcapacity of RE and 4) dispatchable power sources – such as biomass. This paper uses NASA; derived hourly data on weather patterns of sixteen European countries for the past twenty-five years, and load data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators-Electricity (ENTSO-E), to develop a stochastic optimization model. This model aims to understand the synergies between the four classes of technologies mentioned above and to determine the optimal configuration of the energy technologies portfolio. While this issue has been addressed before, it was done so using deterministic models that extrapolated historic data on weather patterns and power demand, as well as ignoring the risk of an unbalanced grid-risk stemming from both the supply and the demand side. This paper aims to explicitly account for the inherent uncertainty in the energy system transition. It articulates two levels of uncertainty: a) the inherent uncertainty in future weather patterns and b) the uncertainty of fully meeting power demand. The first level of uncertainty is addressed by developing probability distributions for future weather data and thus expected power output from RE technologies, rather than known future power output. The latter level of uncertainty is operationalized by introducing a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) constraint in the portfolio optimization problem. By setting the risk threshold at different levels – 1%, 5% and 10%, important insights are revealed regarding the synergies of the different energy technologies, i.e., the circumstances under which they behave as either complements or substitutes to each other. The paper concludes that allowing for uncertainty in expected power output - rather than extrapolating historic data - paints a more realistic picture and reveals important departures from results of deterministic models. In addition, explicitly acknowledging the risk of an unbalanced grid - and assigning it different thresholds - reveals non-linearity in the cost functions of different technology portfolio configurations. This finding has significant implications for the design of the European energy mix.

Keywords: cross-border grid extension, energy storage technologies, energy system transition, stochastic portfolio optimization

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Authors: İsmail Karaca, Ömer Söner

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The use of advanced methods has been increasing day by day in the maritime sector, which is one of the sectors least affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is aimed to minimize accidents, especially by using advanced methods in the investigation of marine accidents. This research aimed to conduct an exploratory statistical analysis of particular ship accidents in the Transport Safety Investigation Center of Turkey database. 46 ship accidents, which occurred between 2010-2018, have been selected from the database. In addition to the availability of a reliable and comprehensive database, taking advantage of the robust statistical models for investigation is critical to improving the safety of ships. Thus, descriptive analysis has been used in the research to identify causes and conditional factors related to different types of ship accidents. The research outcomes underline the fact that environmental factors and day and night ratio have great influence on ship safety.

Keywords: descriptive analysis, maritime industry, maritime safety, ship accident statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Nuwan Kuruwitaarachchi, M. K. M. Peiris, C. N. Madawala, K. M. A. R. Perera, V. U. N Perera

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Dealing with businesses with the foreign market always took a special place in a country’s economy. Political and social factors came into play making currency rate changes fluctuate rapidly. Currency rate prediction has become an important factor for larger international businesses since large amounts of money exchanged between countries. This research focuses on comparing the accuracy of mainly three models; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machines(SVM). series of data import, export, USD currency exchange rate respect to LKR has been selected for training using above mentioned algorithms. After training the data set and comparing each algorithm, it was able to see that prediction in SVM performed better than other models. It was improved more by combining SVM and SVR models together.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANN, FFNN, RMSE, SVM, SVR

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Authors: Lidia Sanchis-Marco, Antonio Rubia

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In this paper we analyze the state-dependent risk-spillover in different economic areas. To this end, we apply the quantile regression-based methodology developed in Adams, Füss and Gropp approach to examine the spillover in conditional tails of daily returns of indices of the banking industry in the US, BRICs, Peripheral EMU, Core EMU, Scandinavia, the UK and Emerging Markets. This methodology allow us to characterize size, direction and strength of financial contagion in a network of bilateral exposures to address cross-border vulnerabilities under different states of the economy. The general evidence shows as the spillover effects are higher and more significant in volatile periods than in tranquil ones. There is evidence of tail spillovers of which much is attributable to a spillover from the US on the rest of the analyzed regions, specially on European countries. In sharp contrast, the US banking system show more financial resilience against foreign shocks.

Keywords: spillover effects, Bank Contagion, SDSVaR, expected shortfall, VaR, expectiles

Procedia PDF Downloads 496

Authors: Afifa Aslam, Muhammad Ibrahim, Abid Mahmood, Muhammad Usman Alvi, Fariha Jabeen, Umara Tabassum

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Many factors cause air pollution in Pakistan, which poses a significant threat to human health. Diesel fuel and gasoline motor vehicles, as well as industrial companies, pollute the air in Pakistan's cities. The study's goal is to determine the level of air pollution in a Pakistani industrial city and to establish risk levels for the health of the population. We measured the intensity of air pollution by chemical characterization and examination of air samples collected at stationary remark sites. The PM10 levels observed at all sampling sites, including residential, commercial, high-traffic, and industrial areas were well above the limits imposed by Pakistan EPA, the United States EPA, and WHO. We assessed the health risk via chemical factors using a methodology approved for risk assessment. All Igeo index values greater than one were considered moderately contaminated or moderately to severely contaminated. Heavy metals have a substantial risk of acute adverse effects. In Faisalabad, Pakistan, there was an enormously high risk of chronic effects produced by a heavy metal acquaintance. Concerning specified toxic metals, intolerable levels of carcinogenic risks have been determined for the entire population. As a result, in most of the investigated areas of Faisalabad, the indices and hazard quotients for chronic and acute exposure exceeded the permissible level of 1.0. In the current study, re-suspended roadside mineral dust, anthropogenic exhaust emissions from traffic and industry, and industrial dust were identified as major emission sources of elemental particulate contents. Because of the unacceptable levels of risk in the research area, it is strongly suggested that a comprehensive study of the population's health status as a result of air pollution should be conducted for policies to be developed against these risks.

Keywords: elemental composition, particulate pollution, Igeo index, health risk assessment, hazard quotient

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Chiung-Yun Chang, Po-Chou Chen, Jiun-Shiang Tzeng, Ka-Wai Mac, Chia-Chi Hsiao, Jo-Chi Jao

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This study aimed to measure R2* relaxation rates in the liver of New Zealand White (NZW) rabbits. R2* relaxation rate has been widely used in various hepatic diseases for iron overload by quantifying iron contents in liver. R2* relaxation rate is defined as the reciprocal of T2* relaxation time and mainly depends on the composition of tissue. Different tissues would have different R2* relaxation rates. The signal intensity decay in Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may be characterized by R2* relaxation rates. In this study, a 1.5T GE Signa HDxt whole body MR scanner equipped with an 8-channel high resolution knee coil was used to observe R2* values in NZW rabbit’s liver and muscle. Eight healthy NZW rabbits weighted 2 ~ 2.5 kg were recruited. After anesthesia using Zoletil 50 and Rompun 2% mixture, the abdomen of rabbit was landmarked at the center of knee coil to perform 3-plane localizer scan using fast spoiled gradient echo (FSPGR) pulse sequence. Afterward, multi-planar fast gradient echo (MFGR) scans were performed with 8 various echo times (TEs) (2/4/6/8/10/12/14/16 ms) to acquire images for R2* calculations. Regions of interest (ROIs) at liver and muscle were measured using Advantage workstation. Finally, the R2* was obtained by a linear regression of ln(SI) on TE. The results showed that the longer the echo time, the smaller the signal intensity. The R2* values of liver and muscle were 44.8  10.9 s-1 and 37.4  9.5 s-1, respectively. It implies that the iron concentration of liver is higher than that of muscle. In conclusion, R2* is correlated with iron contents in tissue. The correlations between R2* and iron content in NZW rabbit might be valuable for further exploration.

Keywords: liver, magnetic resonance imaging, muscle, R2* relaxation rate

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Authors: Omolade Adeleke, Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti

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This study empirically examined the monetary policy and economic growth in the classical cycles in 8 member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), using the Markov switching model for the Two-phase Regime, covering the period 1980Q1 to 2020Q4. Our estimates suggest that these countries demonstrate to have similar business cycles, and the economies stay more in an expansion regime than a recession regime. The result further shows that the union has an average duration period of 3.1 and 15.9 quarters for contraction and expansion periods, respectively. The business cycle duration, on average, suggests 19 quarters, varying from country to country. Therefore, the formulation of policies that can enhance aggregate demand by member countries in the union is an antidote for recession and is necessary to drive the economy into equilibrium. Also, a low-interest rate and reduced inflation rate would ginger long-run economic growth.

Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, economic growth, Markov switching

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Jane N. O'Sullivan

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Although it is widely believed that fertility decline has benefitted economic advancement, particularly in East and South-East Asian countries, the causal mechanisms for this stimulus are contested. Since the turn of this century, demographic dividend theory has been increasingly recognised, hypothesising that higher proportions of working-age people can contribute to economic expansion if conditions are met to employ them productively. Population growth rate, as a systemic condition distinct from age composition, has not been similar attention since the 1970s and has lacked methodology for quantitative assessment. This paper explores conceptual and empirical quantification of the burden of expanding physical capital to accommodate a growing population. In proof-of-concept analyses of Australia and the United Kingdom, actual expenditure on gross fixed capital formation was compiled over four decades and apportioned to maintenance/turnover or expansion to accommodate population growth, based on lifespan of capital assets and population growth rate. In both countries, capital expansion was estimated to cost 6.5-7.0% of GDP per 1% population growth rate. This opportunity cost impedes the improvement of per capita capacity needed to realise the potential of the working-age population. Economic modelling of demographic scenarios have to date omitted this channel of influence; the implications of its inclusion are discussed.

Keywords: age dependency, demographic dividend, infrastructure, population growth rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Yenesew Mengiste Yihun, Abraham Mehari Haile, Teklu Erkossa, Bart Schultz

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Teff (Eragrostic tef) is a staple food in Ethiopia. The local and international demand for the crop is ever increasing pushing the current price five times compared with that in 2006. To meet this escalating demand increasing production including using irrigation is imperative. Optimum application of irrigation water, especially in semi-arid areas is profoundly important. AquaCrop model application in irrigation water scheduling and simulation of water productivity helps both irrigation planners and agricultural water managers. This paper presents simulation and evaluation of AquaCrop model in optimizing the yield and biomass response to variation in timing and rate of irrigation water application. Canopy expansion, canopy senescence and harvest index are the key physiological processes sensitive to water stress. For full irrigation water application treatment there was a strong relationship between the measured and simulated canopy and biomass with r2 and d values of 0.87 and 0.96 for canopy and 0.97 and 0.74 for biomass, respectively. However, the model under estimated the simulated yield and biomass for higher water stress level. For treatment receiving full irrigation the harvest index value obtained were 29%. The harvest index value shows generally a decreasing trend under water stress condition. AquaCrop model calibration and validation using the dry season field experiments of 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 shows that AquaCrop adequately simulated the yield response to different irrigation water scenarios. We conclude that the AquaCrop model can be used in irrigation water scheduling and optimizing water productivity of Teff grown under water scarce semi-arid conditions.

Keywords: AquaCrop, climate smart agriculture, simulation, teff, water security, water stress regions

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Authors: T. Sahbani, M. Bouteraa, R. Wamkeue

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Wind Turbine are considered to be one of the more efficient system of energy production nowadays, a reason that leads the main industrial companies in wind turbine construction and researchers in over the world to look for better performance and one of the ways for that is the use of the synchronous permanent magnet generator. In this context, this work is about developing an analytical model that could simulate different situation in which the synchronous generator may go through, and of course this model match perfectly with the numerical and experimental model.

Keywords: MATLAB, synchronous permanent magnet generator, wind turbine, analytical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 550

Authors: Liang Wang, Beste F. Yuksel, David Guy Brizan

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A computational model of affect that can distinguish between spontaneous and posed smiles with no errors on a large, popular data set using deep learning techniques is presented in this paper. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) classifier, a type of Recurrent Neural Network, is utilized and compared to human classification. Results showed that while human classification (mean of 0.7133) was above chance, the LSTM model was more accurate than human classification and other comparable state-of-the-art systems. Additionally, a high accuracy rate was maintained with small amounts of training videos (70 instances). The derivation of important features to further understand the success of our computational model were analyzed, and it was inferred that thousands of pairs of points within the eyes and mouth are important throughout all time segments in a smile. This suggests that distinguishing between a posed and spontaneous smile is a complex task, one which may account for the difficulty and lower accuracy of human classification compared to machine learning models.

Keywords: affective computing, affect detection, computer vision, deep learning, human-computer interaction, machine learning, posed smile detection, spontaneous smile detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Siamak Dawazdah Emami, Amin Khodaei, Harith Bin Ahmad, Hairul A. Adbul-Rashid

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The Fano resonance effect on plasmonic nanoparticle materials results in such materials possessing a number of unique optical properties, and the potential applicability for sensing, nonlinear devices and slow-light devices. A Fano resonance is a consequence of coherent interference between superradiant and subradiant hybridized plasmon modes. Incident light on subradiant modes will initiate excitation that results in superradiant modes, and these superradient modes possess zero or finite dipole moments alongside a comparable negligible coupling with light. This research work details the derivation of an electrodynamics coupling model for the interaction of dipolar transitions and radiation via plasmonic nanoclusters such as quadrimers, pentamers and heptamers. The directivity calculation is analyzed in order to qualify the redirection of emission. The geometry of a configured array of nanostructures strongly influenced the transmission and reflection properties, which subsequently resulted in the directivity of each antenna being related to the nanosphere size and gap distances between the nanospheres in each model’s structure. A well-separated configuration of nanospheres resulted in the structure behaving similarly to monomers, with spectra peaks of a broad superradiant mode being centered within the vicinity of 560 nm wavelength. Reducing the distance between ring nanospheres in pentamers and heptamers to 20~60 nm caused the coupling factor and charge distributions to increase and invoke a subradiant mode centered within the vicinity of 690 nm. Increasing the outside ring’s nanosphere distance from the centered nanospheres caused the coupling factor to decrease, with the coupling factor being inversely proportional to cubic of the distance between nanospheres. This phenomenon led to a dramatic decrease of the superradiant mode at a 200 nm distance between the central nanosphere and outer rings. Effects from a superradiant mode vanished beyond a 240 nm distance between central and outer ring nanospheres.

Keywords: fano resonance, optical antenna, plasmonic, nano-clusters

Procedia PDF Downloads 430

Authors: Hui Hsin Huang

Abstract:

The downstream manufactures will order their materials from different upstream suppliers to maintain a certain level of the demand. This paper proposes a bivariate model to portray this phenomenon of material demand. We use empirical data to estimate the parameters of model and evaluate the RMSD of model calibration. The results show that the model has better fitness.

Keywords: recency, ordering time, materials demand quantity, multi-source ordering

Procedia PDF Downloads 537

Authors: Walid Chakroun, Sorour Alotaibi, Nesreen Ghaddar, Kamel Ghali

Abstract:

This study aims at determining the extent to which occupant control of microenvironment influences, improves thermal sensation and comfort, and saves energy in spaces equipped with ceiling personalized ventilation (CPV) system assisted by chair fans (CF) and desk fans (DF) in 2 experiments in a climatic chamber equipped with two-station CPV systems, one that allows control of fan flow rate and the other is set to the fan speed of the selected participant in control. Each experiment included two participants each entering the cooled space from transitional environment at a conventional mixed ventilation (MV) at 24 °C. For CPV diffuser, fresh air was delivered at a rate of 20 Cubic feet per minute (CFM) and a temperature of 16 °C while the recirculated air was delivered at the same temperature but at a flow rate 150 CFM. The macroclimate air of the space was at 26 °C. The full speed flow rates for both the CFs and DFs were at 5 CFM and 20 CFM, respectively. Occupant 1 was allowed to operate the CFs or the DFs at (1/3 of the full speed, 2/3 of the full speed, and the full speed) while occupant 2 had no control on the fan speed and their fan speed was selected by occupant 1. Furthermore, a parametric study was conducted to study the effect of increasing the fresh air flow rate on the occupants’ thermal comfort and whole body sensations. The results showed that most occupants in the CPV+CFs, who did not control the CF flow rate, felt comfortable 6 minutes. The participants, who controlled the CF speeds, felt comfortable in around 24 minutes because they were preoccupied with the CFs. For the DF speed control experiments, most participants who did not control the DFs felt comfortable within the first 8 minutes. Similarly to the CPV+CFs, the participants who controlled the DF flow rates felt comfortable at around 26 minutes. When the CPV system was either supported by CFs or DFs, 93% of participants in both cases reached thermal comfort. Participants in the parametric study felt more comfortable when the fresh air flow rate was low, and felt cold when as the flow rate increased.

Keywords: PMV, thermal comfort, thermal environment, thermal sensation

Procedia PDF Downloads 262